ITUITU-BDT Regional Seminar on Mobile and Fixed
Wireless Access for Broadband Applications for
the Arab Region
Algiers, Algeria, 1818-22 June 2006
Convergence Strategy for Universal
Operators and role of business planning
Oscar González Soto
ITU Consultant Expert
Strategic Planning and Assessment
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 1
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Content
• Key factors in Evolution
• Cost structure and savings
• Economies of scale
• Competition Level
• A stair case strategy for a universal operator
• Business trends per category
• Migration steps towards universal operation
• Business planning role and triple play evaluations
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 2
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Convergence domains
Convergence may follow many directions
At Service level (Fixed and Mobile, Interactive and Broadcasting, etc.)
At Network level (One network for all service types: NGN )
At radio Access level (DECT, WiMax, 3G, etc.)
At Operational level (OSS, Billing, etc, for all customer classes)
At Terminals level (2G, 3G, PDA, etc.)
Which one will happen ?
Driven by Market, Economy of
scale and Competition
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 3
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Key Factors: Cost structure and savings
– High cost impact of network infrastructure layer: > 60% in
Greenfield areas of which > 70% in access segment.
– Dimensioning and cost evolving in 3 phases through time:
– A) Accessibility due to Geo
coverage either physical or radio
– B) Equipment in Ports/users as customers grow
– C) Capacity in Traffic due to increase of multiservice applications
– Significant savings by resources and equipment sharing within
an operator due to convergence at network layers : i.e.: 30%
– Additional savings inter-operators due to cost sharing of noncore equipment (buildings, towers, etc.) > 20%
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 4
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Key Factors: Economies of scale
Economies of scale are an inherent characteristic to the telecom
technologies that impacts on solutions, evolution and also now survivability
in competition
– The five dimensions of the economy of scale:
• By Size of the systems
• By Technology capabilities
Larger systems cheaper per unit
New technologies with higher capacity
• By Traffic efficiency with the occupancy
Higher utilization for a given
GoS when more servers
• By customers Density
Quadratic increase with coverage radio
• By Volume of purchasing
June, 2006
Discount per volume in log scale
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 5
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Key Factors: Competition level
Different Levels of Competition
– L1) Monopoly for all geographical areas, customer classes and
service types
– L2) Limited monopoly per area and/or service types while free
operation for niche operators
– L3) Moderate competition for all network segments and services
– L4) High competition for high revenue customers and services
– L5) Aggressive competition for all areas, customers and services
“Efficient telecom implies different competition levels as a
function of country size and development status”
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 6
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Key Factors:
Factors: Competition level
Business feasibility space as a function of volume and ARPU
Revenues per
customer/year
(ARPU)
Non feasible by lack of payment capability,
churn or regulation constraints
r2 $
n2
Volume of Customers/type
ARPU is limited by the economical development level and fixed costs
June, 2006
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 7
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Key Factors:
Factors: Competition level
Business feasibility space as a function of volume and ARPU
Revenues per
customer/year
(ARPU)
r2 $
r1 $
Non feasible by
low NPV and IRR
n1
Volume of Customers/type
Business feasibility limited by positive NPV
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 8
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Key Factors:
Factors: Competition level
Business feasibility space as a function of volume and ARPU
Revenues per
customer/yea
(ARPU)
Non feasible by lack of payment capability,
churn or regulation constraints
Feasibility area:
users range
r2 $
r1 $
Non feasible by
low NPV and IRR
Feasibility area:
tariff range
n1
n2
Volume of Customers/type
Feasibility space highly dependent on country size and economical level
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 9
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Key Factors:
Factors: Competition level
Key factors for survivability in competition
– Push for new services
– Imaginative pricing strategies and bundles
– Actions for market share capture and better take-up rate
– Actions do minimize churn
– Actions to decrease Cost of Ownership and share common
resources
– Business profitability positive and within or better than
indicators benchmark
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 10
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Content
• Key factors in Evolution
• Cost structure and savings
• Economies of scale
• Competition Level
• A stair case strategy for a universal operator
• Business trends per category
• Migration steps towards universal operation
• Business planning role and triple play evaluations
June, 2006
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 11
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Business domains and trends
Illustration case for customer categories and revenues
Large Corporations
3-8%
Small& Medium
Enterprise
8%
SOHO (1-2 people)
10-20%
High-End
Residential
60-70%
Classes Of
Customers
L-E Residential
>3000
Operator
300-500
70-120
60-80
30-55
business
Growing revenues
Growing Volume
0.5- 1%
feasibility
as a
function of
mix of
categories
Revenues/Month (Euro)
“Customer stratification should be analyzed per country”
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 12
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Business domains and trends
Example of Value Added chain and operators movements to gain
economy of scale and market
Network
nucleus
Applications
and Services
Application Service Providers
Edge
• Acquisition/merging of
service providers
• Development of new
access loops and
Unbundling
Agreements and
merging
• Agreements with
wholesale operators
Access Providers (CAPs)
Mobile Service Providers (MSPs)
• Agreements with content providers
• New multi-service
development
• Agreements with
content and
application service
providers
network
Backbone Service Providers (BSPs)
Internet Service Providers
(ISPs)
• Agreements with
content providers
and e-commerce
Local
Access
Metropolitan
Established Service Providers (ESPs
(ESPs))
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 13
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Migration steps
Extension for new
customer types
“staircase” for leading growing alternatives
Customers for
connectivity
Upgraded Telcos
Classic Telcos
Conventional voice
and data services
June, 2006
Extension for new
services domains
+ Services of IN,
VPN and Mobile
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 14
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Migration steps
+ Customers for
new services
Customers for
connectivity
Extension for new
customer types
“staircase” for leading growing alternatives
Extended Telcos
Upgraded Telcos
Classic Telcos
Conventional voice
and data services
June, 2006
Extension for new
services domains
+ Internet and video
Distribution (triple play)
+ Services of IN,
VPN and Mobile
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 15
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Migration steps
+ Customers for
end applications
+ Customers for
new services
Extension for new
customer types
“staircase” for New Universal Telcos
New Universal Telcos
ASPs
ISPs
Extended Telcos
Upgraded Telcos
Customers for
connectivity
Classic Telcos
Conventional voice
and data services
Extension for new
services domains
+ Services of IN,
VPN and Mobile
+ Internet and video
distribution (triple play)
+ e-applications
and Hosting
Specific migration and timeframe to be optimized for the country
context and regulatory conditions
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 16
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Migration steps
Revenue level
(ARPU)
Evolution of revenues with service domains
ASP
Video and multiservice
voice revenues
IN and data
Time and Extension for new
services domains
Conventional voice
and data services
+ Services of IN,
VPN and Mobile
+ Internet and video
distribution (triple play)
+ e-applications
and Hosting
Convergence strategy is fundamental to be competitive and to grow
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 17
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Content
• Key factors in Evolution
• Cost structure and savings
• Economies of scale
• Competition Level
• A stair case strategy for a universal operator
• Business trends per category
• Migration steps towards universal operation
• Business planning role and triple play evaluations
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 18
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Role of Business Planning
– Forecast solutions, costs and revenues
– Evaluate future Cashflows, NPV, IRR, ROI, etc.
– Perform “What-if” analysis for optional alternatives on Volume of
customers, customer mixes and services domains
– Perform benchmarking with “best in class” operators
– Decision making on strategy and actions in competition
based on quantified evaluations
– Recommend alternatives and actions to ensure success
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 19
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Required functionality for Business tools
- Service Demand Projection
- Dynamic modeling for technology substitution and migration rates
- Dimensioning multiple flows (circuit and packet modes)
- Evaluation of network resources and associated investment
(CAPEX)
- Evaluation of revenues for given tariffs and installation rate
- Modeling multiple resource lifetimes
- Modeling of demand elasticity to tariffs
- Interrelation between network growth and operational cost (OPEX)
- Cost assignment as a function of utilization rates
- Generation of standard financial results like Cash Flow, Profit &
Loss, Balance Sheet, NPV, IRR, etc.
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 20
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Role of Business Planning
Evaluations to be based on robust techno-economical tools due to
high number of alternatives and complexity
Case study for medium size country with mixes of customer classes
and triple play services domains:
–
Multiservice IP Network with integrated operation available
– Three service categories: Voice, Data/Internet, Video distribution
– Modeling demands, multiservice traffic flows, dimensioning, network
resources, CAPEX, OPEX and financial results for different levels of
competition
– Evaluate differential future Cash-flows, NPV, IRR, etc. for a 10 years
period
June, 2006
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 21
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Role of Business Planning
Effects of the mix of customers on Reference Scenario: Low competition level
Network NPV
8e+08
7e+08
6e+08
SOHO and
Small
Enterprise
Euro
5e+08
4e+08
All
Segments
(reference)
3e+08
Residential
2e+08
1e+08
0e+08
-1e+08
•
June, 2006
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Year
SME and SOHO with quicker recovery but less NPV and company value at
medium term
• “All customer segments” case with much better behavior
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 22
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Role of Business Planning
Effects of the mix of services on Reference Scenario: Low competition level
Network NPV
7e+08
6e+08
Internet
5e+08
Euro
4e+08
Internet &
VoDSL
3e+08
Internet &
Video
2e+08
All
Services
(reference)
1e+08
0e+08
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
-1e+08
-2e+08
•
Year
Major impact of service classes on NPV and company survivability
• Single service classes without future
• High benefit of “all services” case
June, 2006
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 23
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Role of Business Planning
Effects of the mix of services on typical scenario: Medium competition level
Network NPV
5e+08
4e+08
Internet
Euro
3e+08
Internet &
VoDSL
2e+08
Internet &
Video
1e+08
0e+08
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
All
Services
(reference)
-1e+08
-2e+08
•
June, 2006
Year
Increase of competition level amplifies the previous effects on feasibility: big
differences between service mixes
• Data only or single service classes without feasibility at medium term
• Very robust behavior for the “all services” case
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 24
Convergence Strategy in Competition
Recommendations
• Ensure proper modeling of key techno-economical factors and
professional tools
• Focus on multiple customers, multiple services domains
• Take benefit of all economies of scale
• Maintain business indicators within benchmark margins in
competition
!! Which
convergence will happen ?
Combination Driven by Market, Economy of scale and
Competition !!
June, 2006
ITU/BDT/ Convergence Strategy O. G.S.
Lecture 2.2.3 slide 25