ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards IMT-2000
Systems in Developing Countries
Davide Grillo, Alcatel Italia S.p.A.
ITU BDT Regional Seminar for Africa on Fixed-Mobile Convergence and Guidelines on
the smooth transition of existing mobile networks to IMT-2000 for Developing Countries
Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005
Overview
Status and Outlook of Mobile Services in
Developing Countries
Particular Needs of Developing Countries
Transition Paths to IMT-2000 Systems
Ongoing Work in ITU-D on Guidelines
Economics of Mobile Network
Deployment
Concluding Remarks
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 2
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1
Status and Outlook of Mobile Services in Developing
Countries (1/2)
From existing mobile networks to IMT-2000
Lower prices in airtime and terminals
Increased cellular penetration
Growing presence of developing
countries
Growth in non-voice revenue
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 3
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Status and Outlook of Mobile Services in Developing
Countries (2/2)
Driving forces for IMT-2000
Overcoming the digital divide
Availability of high bandwidth on the
access loop
Interworking of different wireless
technologies
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 4
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2
Particular Needs of Developing Countries (1/3-a)
Operator requirements
Costs
Fixed wireless
access
Coverage and
deployment
obligations
Transition time
Mass
application
Government
support
Transition costs should be minimized as much as possible
because vast majority of population has little discretionary
budget for telecommunications/entertainment.
Some operators may provide fixed wireless access for IMT-2000
services in urban areas.
Target coverage/service penetration and roll-out schedule set
by regulators in some cases. Roll-out obligations must be set
keeping in view the business case of the operator and the
user’s interest.
Time frame for transition from existing “mobile”/”fixed”
towards IMT-2000. Operators should have maximum flexibility
in determining and finalizing the transition.
Applications such as tele-education, tele-medicine, egovernment may require IMT-2000 technologies.
Role of government subsidy for infrastructure and/or advanced
applications (not for infrastructure but for affordability of
services by all including universal service obligations).
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 5
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Particular Needs of Developing Countries (1/3-b)
Operator requirements
Value
depreciation
Possible obsolescence of new infrastructure investments while
waiting for IMT-2000 demand.
IMT-2000
bands
Access to appropriate frequency bands and adequate
spectrum is required. Use of frequencies below 1GHz and
allocation of future frequency bands as per WRC/WARC may be
advantageous in providing cost-efficient coverage.
Conditions for use of spectrum (licensing / roaming / coverage /
other operator obligations)
Technical and
administrative
conditions
Infrastructure
sharing
Satellite
component
Services and
applications
Sharing of (radio / network) resources for rapid rollout and
coverage (VNO) can be encouraged to facilitate speedy
deployment of new technologies and lower the costs to
operators.
Usage of satellite component of IMT-2000.
Low entry fees. Use of IMT-2000 for access to education in
remote villages, rural economic development, access to
Internet at affordable price.
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 6
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3
Particular Needs of Developing Countries (2/3)
Regulator requirements
License
handling and
allocation
Capitalize on experience of developed countries on
- license awarding method,
- license conditions,
- license fees,
Databases
- number of licenses
Capitalize on experience of developed countries on
- RFP (Request for Proposal) issued for awarding IMT-2000
licenses;·
- Rationale behind the preferred license awarding methods;·
- Information on the method of determination of Lowest Bid
Rates;
- Standard concession agreements – including provisions
related to QoS numbering, interconnection, roaming, coverage,
infrastructure sharing etc. – that were signed with the IMT-2000
operators.
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 7
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Particular Needs of Developing Countries (3/3)
User requirements
Costs
User affordability for services and terminals.Tariffs should be
affordable to the end-users.
Terminals
Ease of use and convenience of terminals.The terminals
should support local requirement in terms of language and
must take into consideration the literacy level across the
country.
Use of IMT-2000 for education in remote villages, rural
economic development, access to Internet at affordable
price.Improvement of consumers’ education on wireless data
applications.
Services and
applications
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 8
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4
Transition Paths to IMT-2000 Systems –
Evolution and Migration
Evolution* --- “a process of change and development
toward enhanced capabilities”
Migration* --- "movement of users and/or service
delivery from an existing system to a new system”
* ITU-R Recommendation M.1308
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 9
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Transition Paths to IMT-2000 Systems –
Possible Transition Paths (1/3)
Transition paths – Radio Access Network
PDC
UTRAN
GSM/GPRS
GERAN
TDMA
UWC-136/
EDGE
IS-95
CDMA-2000
2G
operators
3G
operators
TACS
NMT
AMPS
1G
operators
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 10
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5
Transition Paths to IMT-2000 Systems –
Possible Transition Paths (2/3)
Transition paths – Core Network
Pre-MAP
MAP
MAP
Pre-IS-41
IS-41
IS-41
1G
operators
2G
operators
3G
operators
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 11
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Transition Paths to IMT-2000 Systems –
Possible Transition Paths (3/3)
Transition paths – Options
To
From
Analogue systems (AMPS,
NMT, TACS)
TDMA/D-AMPS systems
CDMA Direct
Spread (WCDMA)
CDMA MultiCarrier
(CDMA2000)
TDMA SingleCarrier
(EDGE)
CDMA Direct
Spread (WCDMA)
CDMA MultiCarrier
(CDMA2000)
TDMA SingleCarrier
(EDGE)
PDC
CdmaOne systems
GSM systems
CDMA Multi-Carrier
(CDMA2000)
CDMA Direct
Spread (WCDMA)
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 12
CDMA TDD (timecode)
(TD-SCDMA)
TDMA SingleCarrier
(EDGE)
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6
Transition Paths to IMT-2000 Systems –
Spectrum Usage
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Scenario 3 : A
A
f1
f2
A, B
f1
f2
B
Scenario 4 : A
A
f1
f2
A
B
f1
f2
B
Scenario 1: A
A
f1
f2
A B
f1A f2B f2
B
Scenario 2 : A
A
f1
f2
A
B
f1
f2
B
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 13
All rights reserved © 2005, Alcatel
Ongoing Work in ITU-D on Guidelines (1/2-a)
Structure of Guidelines (Doc. ITU-D 131/2 Rev. 6)
SUMMARY
1 - INTRODUCTION
2 - DEVELOPMENT OF POLICIES FOR TRANSITIONING OF
EXISTING NETWORKS TO IMT-2000
3 – TRANSITION PATHS
4 - ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION TO IMT-2000
5 – CONCLUDING REMARKS
6 - DEFINITIONS
7 - ABBREVIATIONS/GLOSSARY
REFERENCES
ANNEXES A - F
ANNEX G – OPERATOR EXPERIENCE IN TRANSITIONING
TO IMT-2000 SYSTEMS
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 14
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7
Ongoing Work in ITU-D on Guidelines (1/2-b)
Structure of Guidelines (Doc. ITU-D 131/2 Rev. 6)
CHILE - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (EDGE) and TDMA
Migration in Chile
HONG KONG - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (EDGE) in Hong
Kong
HUNGARY - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (EDGE) in Hungary
JAPAN - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (FOMA) in Japan
JAPAN - CDMA2000 1X Deployment and Associated Multimedia Services
Launched in Japan
RUSSIAN FEDERATION - Evolution and Migration of 1st Generation
NMT450 Analogue Mobile Networks to IMT-2000
THAILAND - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (EDGE) in Thailand
UGANDA - GSM networks bring health care to rural Uganda
VENEZUELA - Venezuelan Experience on the Implementation of CDMA
1xrtt Network by one Existing TDMA Operator in the 800 MHz Band (824849 MHz/869-894 MHz)
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 15
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Ongoing Work in ITU-D on Guidelines (2/2)
Schedules for work on Guidelines
31 December 2003: Closing date for WP8F, SG19 (formerly
SSG) and Q18/2 inputs for first Draft Guidelines
5 January 2004: Start progressing and editing Guidelines
text by correspondence
26-29 January 2004: Q18/2 RG meeting and second Draft
Guidelines finalized
6-9 July 2004: Q18/2 RG meeting and final Guidelines
version
13-16 September 2004: Adoption of Guidelines by ITU-D
SG2
18-20 April 2005: Production of a first Draft streamlined
version of Guidelines (GST)
5 July 2005: Second Draft GST
30 September 2005: Final GST approved by ITU-D SG2
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 16
All rights reserved © 2005, Alcatel
8
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment (1/4)
The “business plan” methodology
Estimation of the year traffic demand
Estimation of potential user population
Estimation of service penetration
Estimation of activity factor (per service type and class)
Estimation of OPEX
RAN planning
Core Network planning
Assumption on revenue structure for offered services
Computation of NPV
Net Present Value (NPV):
Cumulative discounted cash-flow generated to date, or less formally
The profitability of a business, as appreciated a Year 0, over a span of N years N ranging from 1 to the economic life of the system
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D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 17
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment (2/4-a)
UMTS Network Deployment
Y10
Y9
UMTS Network Deployment
UMTS Network
Deployment
Total population
over the
service area
The “business
plan”
methodology
User
population &
service
penetration
Customer
base
Customer
base
Customer
base Dense Urban
Customer
base
Dense Urban
Business
CS
12
64
128
PS
64
128
384
Y2
Y1
Y0
¦
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Urban
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Consumer
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Traffic
loading
Urban
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Customer
base
Customer
base
Suburban
Rural
Consumer
¦ ¦
loading
loading
loading
UMTS Network Deployment
UMTS Network Deployment
RAN Dimensioning and Planning Tools
Deployment
UMTS Network Deployment
strategies &
policies
UMTS Network Deployment
UMTS Network Deployment
IMT-2000 Network Deployment
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 18
Y10
Y9
Y2
Y1
Y0
Rural
¦
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¦
Business
Consumer
Business
Consumer
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UMTS Network
Traffic
Traffic Deployment Traffic
Business
¦ ¦
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¦
Customer
base
Customer
base
Suburban
¦
¦
¦
¦
¦
¦ Y10
Y9
Y10
Y9
Y2
Y1
Y0
Y10
Y9
Y2
Y1
Y0
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9
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment (2/4-b)
Total population over the service area
User
population &
service
penetration
Customer
base
Dense urban
Business Consumer
Customer
base
Customer
base
Urban
Suburban
Business Consumer Business Consumer
Customer
base
Rural
Business Consumer
Circuitswitched services
CS
12
64
128
¦
¦
¦
¦
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Packet switched services
PS
64
128
384
¦
¦
¦
¦
¦
¦
¦
¦
¦
All rights reserved © 2005, Alcatel
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 19
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment (2/4-c)
Circuitswitched services
¦
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¦
¦
Packet switched services
Traffic
loading
¦
¦
¦
Traffic
loading
¦
¦
¦
¦
¦
¦
Traffic
loading
Traffic
loading
RAN Dimensioning and Planning Tools
Deployment
strategies &
policies
IMT-2000 Network Deployment
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 20
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10
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment –
Share of Investments (3/4-a)
Year 0
Rel-99
Year 3
Year 4 to Year 10
from Rel-99 Capacity increases
to Rel-5
RAN
- Node Bs
- RNCs
- UTRAN transport infrastructure
55%
30%
15%
55%
35%
10%
60%
30%
10%
- MSCs & MSC servers
- SGSNs & GGSNs
- MGWs
- CSCFs, MGCFs, T-SGWs, MRFs
- Core network transport
infrastructure
50%
35%
0%
0%
15%
0%
60%
10%
20%
10%
0%
65%
10%
15%
10%
Service Market Segment
Year 0
Year 3
65%
35%
60%
40%
Core Network
- Business
- Consumer
Year 4 to Year 10
50%
50%
3% yearly reduction in over the whole
economic life cycle
Tariffs
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D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 21
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment (3/4-b)
NPV analysis
16000
14000
12000
[MEuro]
Traffic
demand
Service
penetration
Tariff erosion
Service
offering
SM+ & SP+ & TE+
10000
Reference scenario
8000
6000
SM- & SP- & TE-
4000
2000
Reference offering
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 22
[time]
SM: Service Mix
SP: Service Penetration
TE: Tariff Erosion
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11
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment –
Sensitivity Analysis (4/4-a)
Deviation from
assumed service mix
SM+
SM-
Y3: +10%, Y10: +25%
Y3: -10%, Y10: -25%
Deviation from
assumed service
penetration
SP+
SM-
Y3: +10%, Y10: +25%
Y3: -10%, Y10: -25%
TE+
TE-
Yearly deviation
from tariff erosion
Alternative scenario
Service Market Segment
- Business
- Consumer
SM: Service Mix
Erosion
+10%
-10%
Year 0
Year 3
Year 4 to Year 10
65%
35%
60%
40%
50%
50%
SP: Service Penetration
TE: Tariff
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D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 23
Economics of Mobile Network Deployment (4/4-b)
Traffic
demand
Service
penetration
Tariff erosion
Service
offering
16000
14000
12000
Alternative offering
[MEuro]
Sensitivity
analysis
Alternative scenario
SM+
SM+ &
& SP+
SP+ &
& TE+
TE+
10000
Reference
Referencescenario
scenario
8000
6000
SMSM- &
& SPSP- &
& TETE-
4000
2000
Reference
Referenceoffering
offering
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 24
[time]
SM: Service Mix
SP: Service Penetration
TE: Tariff Erosion
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12
Usability of the Guidelines
Key aspects
Do the Guidelines achieve the goal of providing
guidance?
Do the Guidelines reconcile selfsupportiveness, minimum overlap to IMT-2000
Handbook and a complement to the latter?
Do the Guidelines provide a path for further
reading in the related literature?
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 25
All rights reserved © 2005, Alcatel
Concluding Remarks
While the economic aspects of transitioning to IMT2000 systems are common to both developed and
developing countries, social aspects have a
particularly important role in the latter countries.
Evolution and migration are the phases through which
a transition materializes, with the mix and sequence
determined on the basis of economic and strategic
decisions to be taken with reference to each individual
case.
ITU-D has taken an active role in assisting developing
countries by preparing guidelines aimed at identifying
issues and options for a smooth and cost-effective
transition towards IMT-2000 systems.
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 26
All rights reserved © 2005, Alcatel
13
Acknowledgements
This presentation bases on the work on guidelines for
transitioning towards IMT-2000 systems for
developing countries carried out in ITU-D Q.18/2 in
collaboration with ITU-R WP8F and ITU-T SG19.
Info: www.itu.int/ITU-D/
D. Grillo, “ITU-D Guidelines for Transitioning Towards
IMT-2000 Systems in Developing Countries” — 27
All rights reserved © 2005, Alcatel
www.alcatel.com
Thank you for your attention
14