ITU Activities on IMT-2000
3.1.2 ITU-D Guidelines for
Transitioning Towards IMT-2000
Systems in Developing Countries
Regional Workshop for the Arab Region on
Guidelines on the Smooth Transition of Existing
Mobile Networks to IMT-2000 for Developing
Countries
Damascus, Syria
13-15 June 2005
Davide Grillo
Alcatel Italia S.p.A.
Phone: +39 (06) 5480 3430
Fax:
+39 (06) 5480 4404
Davide.Grillo@alcatel.it
Email:
Overview
• Status and Outlook of Mobile Services
in Developing Countries
• Particular Needs of Developing
Countries
• Transition Paths to IMT-2000 Systems
• Ongoing Work in ITU-D on Guidelines
• Economics of Mobile Network
Deployment
• Concluding Remarks
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 1
1
Status and Outlook of Mobile
Services in Developing
Countries (1/2)
• From existing mobile networks to IMT-2000
• Lower prices in airtime and terminals
• Increased cellular penetration
• Growing presence of developing countries
• Growth in non-voice revenue
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 2
Status and Outlook of Mobile
Services in Developing
Countries (2/2)
• Driving forces for IMT-2000
• Overcoming the digital divide
• Availability of high bandwidth on the
access loop
• Interworking of different wireless
technologies
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 3
2
Particular Needs of
Developing Countries (1/3-a)
• Operator requirements
Costs
Fixed wireless
access
Transition costs should be minimized as much as possible because
vast majority of population has little discretionary budget for
telecommunications/entertainment.
Some operators may provide fixed wireless access for IMT-2000
services in urban areas.
Coverage and
deployment
obligations
Target coverage/service penetration and roll-out schedule set by
regulators in some cases. Roll-out obligations must be set keeping in
view the business case of the operator and the user’s interest.
Transition time
Time frame for transition from existing “mobile”/”fixed” towards IMT2000. Operators should have maximum flexibility in determining and
finalizing the transition.
Mass application Applications such as tele-education, tele-medicine, e-government
may require IMT-2000 technologies.
Government
support
Role of government subsidy for infrastructure and/or advanced
applications (not for infrastructure but for affordability of services by
all including universal service obligations).
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 4
Particular Needs of
Developing Countries (1/3-b)
• Operator requirements
Value
depreciation
Possible obsolescence of new infrastructure investments while
waiting for IMT-2000 demand.
IMT-2000
bands
Access to appropriate frequency bands and adequate spectrum is
required. Use of frequencies below 1GHz and allocation of future
frequency bands as per WRC/WARC may be advantageous in
providing cost-efficient coverage.
Conditions for use of spectrum (licensing / roaming / coverage /
other operator obligations)
Technical and
administrative
conditions
Infrastructure
sharing
Sharing of (radio / network) resources for rapid rollout and coverage
(VNO) can be encouraged to facilitate speedy deployment of new
technologies and lower the costs to operators.
Satellite
component
Usage of satellite component of IMT-2000.
Services and
applications
Low entry fees. Use of IMT-2000 for access to education in remote
villages, rural economic development, access to Internet at
affordable price.
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 5
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Particular Needs of
Developing Countries (2/3)
• Regulator requirements
License
handling and
allocation
Capitalize on experience of developed countries on
- license awarding method,
- license conditions,
- license fees,
- number of licenses
Databases
Capitalize on experience of developed countries on
- RFP (Request for Proposal) issued for awarding IMT-2000
licenses;·
- Rationale behind the preferred license awarding methods;·
- Information on the method of determination of Lowest Bid Rates;
- Standard concession agreements – including provisions related to
QoS numbering, interconnection, roaming, coverage, infrastructure
sharing etc. – that were signed with the IMT-2000 operators.
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 6
Particular Needs of
Developing Countries (3/3)
• User requirements
Costs
User affordability for services and terminals.Tariffs should be
affordable to the end-users.
Terminals
Ease of use and convenience of terminals.The terminals should
support local requirement in terms of language and must take into
consideration the literacy level across the country.
Services and
applications
Use of IMT-2000 for education in remote villages, rural economic
development, access to Internet at affordable price.Improvement of
consumers’ education on wireless data applications.
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 7
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Transition Paths to IMT-2000
Systems –
Evolution and Migration
• Evolution* --- “a process of change and
development toward enhanced capabilities”
• Migration* --- "movement of users and/or service
delivery from an existing system to a new
system”
* ITU-R Recommendation M.1308
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 8
Transition Paths to IMT-2000
Systems – Possible
Transition Paths (1/3)
• Transition paths – Radio Access Network
PDC
UTRAN
GSM/GPRS
GERAN
TDMA
UWC-136/
EDGE
IS-95
CDMA-2000
2G
operators
3G
operators
TACS
NMT
AMPS
1G
operators
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 9
5
Transition Paths to IMT-2000
Systems – Possible
Transition Paths (2/3)
• Transition paths – Core Network
Pre-MAP
MAP
MAP
Pre-IS-41
IS-41
IS-41
1G
operators
2G
operators
3G
operators
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 10
Transition Paths to IMT-2000
Systems – Possible
Transition Paths (3/3)
• Transition paths – Options
To
From
Analogue systems (AMPS,
NMT, TACS)
TDMA/D-AMPS systems
CDMA Direct
Spread (WCDMA)
CDMA MultiCarrier
(CDMA2000)
TDMA SingleCarrier
(EDGE)
CDMA Direct
Spread (WCDMA)
CDMA MultiCarrier
(CDMA2000)
TDMA SingleCarrier
(EDGE)
PDC
CdmaOne systems
GSM systems
CDMA Multi-Carrier
(CDMA2000)
CDMA Direct
Spread (WCDMA)
CDMA TDD (timecode)
(TD-SCDMA)
TDMA SingleCarrier
(EDGE)
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 11
6
Transition Paths to IMT-2000
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Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 12
Ongoing Work in ITU-D on
Guidelines (1/2-a)
• Structure of Guidelines (Doc. ITU-D 131/2 Rev. 6)
• SUMMARY
• 1 - INTRODUCTION
• 2 - DEVELOPMENT OF POLICIES FOR TRANSITIONING OF
EXISTING NETWORKS TO IMT-2000
• 3 – TRANSITION PATHS
• 4 - ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION TO IMT-2000
• 5 – CONCLUDING REMARKS
• 6 - DEFINITIONS
• 7 - ABBREVIATIONS/GLOSSARY
• REFERENCES
• ANNEXES A - F
• ANNEX G – OPERATOR EXPERIENCE IN TRANSITIONING
TO IMT-2000 SYSTEMS
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 13
7
Ongoing Work in ITU-D on
Guidelines (1/2-b)
• Structure of Guidelines (Doc. ITU-D 131/2 Rev. 6)
• CHILE - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (EDGE) and TDMA
Migration in Chile
• HONG KONG - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (EDGE) in Hong
Kong
• HUNGARY - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (EDGE) in Hungary
• JAPAN - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (FOMA) in Japan
• JAPAN - CDMA2000 1X Deployment and Associated Multimedia Services
Launched in Japan
• RUSSIAN FEDERATION - Evolution and Migration of 1st Generation
NMT450 Analogue Mobile Networks to IMT-2000
• THAILAND - Implementation of IMT-2000 technology (EDGE) in Thailand
• UGANDA - GSM networks bring health care to rural Uganda
• VENEZUELA - Venezuelan Experience on the Implementation of CDMA
1xrtt Network by one Existing TDMA Operator in the 800 MHz Band (824849 MHz/869-894 MHz)
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 14
Ongoing Work in ITU-D on
Guidelines (2/2)
• Schedules for work on Guidelines
• 31 December 2003: Closing date for WP8F, SG19 (formerly
SSG) and Q18/2 inputs for first Draft Guidelines
• 5 January 2004: Start progressing and editing Guidelines
text by correspondence
• 26-29 January 2004: Q18/2 RG meeting and second Draft
Guidelines finalized
• 6-9 July 2004: Q18/2 RG meeting and final Guidelines
version
• 13-16 September 2004: Adoption of Guidelines by ITU-D
SG2
• 18-20 April 2005: Production of a first Draft streamlined
version of Guidelines (GST)
• 5 July 2005: Second Draft GST
• 30 September 2005: Final GST approved by ITU-D SG2
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 15
8
Economics of Mobile
Network Deployment (1/4)
• The “business plan” methodology
• Estimation of the year traffic demand
• Estimation of potential user population
• Estimation of service penetration
• Estimation of activity factor (per service type and
class)
• Estimation of OPEX
• RAN planning
• Core Network planning
• Assumption on revenue structure for offered services
• Computation of NPV
Net Present Value (NPV):
Cumulative discounted cash-flow generated to date, or less formally
The profitability of a business, as appreciated a Year 0, over a span of N years N ranging from 1 to the economic life of the system
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 16
Economics of Mobile
Network Deployment (2/4-a)
UMTS Network Deployment
Y10
Y9
UMTS Network Deployment
UMTS Network
Deployment
Total population
over the
service area
Y2
Y1
Y0
User
population &
service
penetration
• The “business
plan”
methodology
Customer
base
Customer
base
Customer
base Dense Urban
Customer
base
Dense Urban
Business
CS
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RAN Dimensioning and Planning Tools
Deployment
UMTS Network Deployment
strategies &
policies
UMTS Network Deployment
UMTS Network Deployment
IMT-2000 Network Deployment
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Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 17
9
Economics of Mobile
Network Deployment (2/4-b)
Total population over the service area
User
population &
service
penetration
Customer
base
Dense urban
Business Consumer
Customer
base
Customer
base
Urban
Suburban
Business Consumer Business Consumer
Customer
base
Rural
Business Consumer
Circuitswitched services
CS
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Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 18
Economics of Mobile
Network Deployment (2/4-c)
Circuitswitched services
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loading
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loading
RAN Dimensioning and Planning Tools
Deployment
strategies &
policies
IMT-2000 Network Deployment
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 19
10
Economics of Mobile
Network Deployment –
Share of Investments (3/4-a)
Year 0
Rel-99
Year 3
Year 4 to Year 10
from Rel-99 Capacity increases
to Rel-5
RAN
- Node Bs
- RNCs
- UTRAN transport infrastructure
55%
30%
15%
55%
35%
10%
60%
30%
10%
- MSCs & MSC servers
- SGSNs & GGSNs
- MGWs
- CSCFs, MGCFs, T-SGWs, MRFs
- Core network transport
infrastructure
50%
35%
0%
0%
15%
0%
60%
10%
20%
10%
0%
65%
10%
15%
10%
Service Market Segment
Year 0
Year 3
65%
35%
60%
40%
Core Network
- Business
- Consumer
Year 4 to Year 10
50%
50%
3% yearly reduction in over the whole
economic life cycle
Tariffs
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 20
Economics of Mobile
Network Deployment (3/4-b)
• NPV analysis
14000
• Traffic
demand
• Service
penetration
• Tariff erosion
• Service
offering
12000
[MEuro]
16000
SM+ & SP+ & TE+
10000
Reference scenario
8000
6000
SM- & SP- & TE-
4000
2000
Reference offering
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
[time]
SM: Service Mix
SP: Service Penetration
TE: Tariff Erosion
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 21
11
Economics of Mobile
Network Deployment –
Sensitivity Analysis (4/4-a)
Deviation from
assumed service mix
SM+
SM-
Y3: +10%, Y10: +25%
Y3: -10%, Y10: -25%
Deviation from
assumed service
penetration
SP+
SM-
Y3: +10%, Y10: +25%
Y3: -10%, Y10: -25%
TE+
TE-
Yearly deviation
from tariff erosion
Alternative scenario
Service Market Segment
- Business
- Consumer
SM: Service Mix
Erosion
+10%
-10%
Year 0
Year 3
Year 4 to Year 10
65%
35%
60%
40%
50%
50%
SP: Service Penetration
TE: Tariff
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 22
Economics of Mobile
Network Deployment (4/4-b)
16000
14000
12000
Alternative offering
[MEuro]
• Sensitivity
analysis
Alternative scenario
SM+
SM+ &
& SP+
SP+ &
& TE+
TE+
10000
• Traffic
demand
• Service
penetration
• Tariff erosion
• Service
offering
Reference
Referencescenario
scenario
8000
6000
SMSM- &
& SPSP- &
& TETE-
4000
2000
Reference
Referenceoffering
offering
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
[time]
SM: Service Mix
SP: Service Penetration
TE: Tariff Erosion
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 23
12
Usability of the Guidelines
• Key aspects
• Do the Guidelines achieve the goal of providing
guidance?
• Do the Guidelines reconcile selfsupportiveness, minimum overlap to IMT-2000
Handbook and a complement to the latter?
• Do the Guidelines provide a path for further
reading in the related literature?
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 24
Concluding Remarks
• While the economic aspects of transitioning to
IMT-2000 systems are common to both developed
and developing countries, social aspects have a
particularly important role in the latter countries.
• Evolution and migration are the phases through
which a transition materializes, with the mix and
sequence determined on the basis of economic
and strategic decisions to be taken with reference
to each individual case.
• ITU-D has taken an active role in assisting
developing countries by preparing guidelines
aimed at identifying issues and options for a
smooth and cost-effective transition towards IMT2000 systems.
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 25
13
Acknowledgements
• This presentation bases on the work on
guidelines for transitioning towards IMT-2000
systems for developing countries carried out in
ITU-D Q.18/2 in collaboration with ITU-R WP8F
and ITU-T SG19.
• Info: www.itu.int/ITU-D/
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 26
Thank you for your attention
Regional Workshop (Arab Region): Guidelines on Smooth Transition to IMT-2000 - 27
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