Regulatory and Policy Implications of
Advanced Wireless Technologies to
Spectrum Management
Bharat Bhatia
Regional Government Relations,
ma
Workshop on Radio Spectrum Management for a Converging World
February 16-18, 2004
Motorola Document Classification, File Name, Rev Number
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Today there are more users of wireless
spectrum than ever in the past and this trend
is growing.
Global Telephone Subscribers
Wireless Subscribers Surpassed Fixed Lines in April 2002
(Millions)
2,000
1,500
1,000
Wireline
500
Wireless
0
’82
’84
’86
’88
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’90
’92
’94
’96
’98
’00
’02
’04
Today Each User Spends More Time on
Wireless and This Trend is Growing
Global Telecom Voice MOUs
Wireless MOUs 38% of Total in 2005
MOUs
(Trillions)
CAGR
10
5%
Wireline
8
6
31%
4
Wireless
2
0
‘00
‘01
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‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
Today the Mobile Phone Has Become a
Way of Life and a Necessity
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Today New Wireless Technologies are Driving Global
Information Society NEEDING More Bandwidth
4G
Increasing Value
Shared Environments
3.5G
Mobile
Television
3G
Video on demand
Video Streaming
2.5G
Still Imaging
Mobile Video
Conferencing
Audio Streaming
2G
E-Commerce
Mobile Radio
Voice
Data Transmission Speed - kbps 9.6
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Text Messaging
E-Mail
32
64
128
144
384
2,000
Today New Mobile Technologies Have
Changed How we Live and Work
“Everything, Everywhere " Communicates
People
People to
to People
People
People
People to
to Things
Things
Buildings
Things
Things to
to Things
Things
Homes
Appliances
Computers
Transportation
Vehicles & Systems
S
Intelligent
Subscribers
Devices
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Vending
Machines
Spectrum Management needs to keep pace
with this new paradigm in wireless usage
• The traditional design of spectrum management that
has emerged since early 1900 was based on high
signal to noise ratios.
• Future Spectrum management needs to focus on:
– License free operation
– Spectrum harmonization
• Spectrum auctions introduced in some markets had
created a major setback in the growth of wireless
technologies. APT has recommended against the use
of spectrum auctions
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In the Past ITU used to Play a Leading Role in
Global and Regional Spectrum Harmonization
• International Radio Regulations have driven
global/regional harmonization for many services
driving lower service costs and other benefits
– Broadcast bands
– Amateur Bands
– Aeronautical bands,
– Space services
– etc.
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National regulations and regional bodies have
driven global/regional harmonization where ITU
did not keep pace with Technology
• International Standards and or National
regulations leading to global harmonization has
brought in economies of scale and lower costs of
wireless systems for consumers
–
–
–
–
GSM
PCS
CDMA
IDEN
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In the recent years, ITU has tried to play a
limited role using alternative regulatory
approaches to harmonize global/regional
spectrum for new services/technologies
• IMT 2000 spectrum “identified” at
WARC1992 and WRC 2000
• PPDR in spectrum “identified” at
WRC2003
• Spectrum for “Beyond 3G” to be
considered at WRC-07
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But ITU is still finding it difficult to accept
new “converged” terrestrial services
• New Technologies using globally harmonized
bands promise to deliver the future high
bandwidth wireless services
– 802.11b technologies in 2.4
– WLAN and FWA in 5GHz bands
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New Interference rejecting technologies such as Motorola
Canopy make delicensing as the optimum spectrum
management solutions for high bandwidth needs
With its high interference tolerance and directional antennas
on all access points, Canopy expands the areas that receive good service
and reduces areas experiencing interference (red areas).
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Is this the time for an overall review of
Terrestrial Services under the Radio
Regulations?
Thank You
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Auctions in 99/00 drove Up Cost of Licenses
License Cost per POP (cost per
$180
subscriber will be substantially higher)
$160
3G
$140
$120
30% Capex Cost
$120
$93
$100
70% License
Cost
$80
$60
PCS
$40
60% Capex Cost
$20
$19
40% License
Cost
$0
Chicago/Dallas
99
UK
00
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Germany
00
Shrinking Capital Available
Based on Cost of 3G for Europe Alone
(US$ Billions)
$70.0
$64.8
$60.0
$18.5
$45.9
$50.0
Aggregate Expenditure = $200.4 bn
$10.5
$40.0
$29.6
$30.0
$46.3
$20.0
$10.0
$27.8
$10.6
$8.6
$19.0
$19.2
CAPEX
License
$35.4
$7.7
$7.2
$0.5
$0.0
Germany Internal
UK Use Only
France
Italy
$7.4
$3.5
$3.9
$3.8
$2.0
$3.1
$1.6
$2.8
$1.0
$2.7
$2.0
$1.6
$1.2
$1.4
Spain N'lands Belgium Austria Portugal Swiss DenmarkSweden Norway
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Source: Chase Manhattan
9//00
Financing “Gap” Faced By Some Operators
(US$ Billions)
$80.0
Credit
CreditPressures
Pressures
Strong
StrongResources
Resources
$70.0
$61.7
$60.0
$40~$50 Billion of Cash still Needed
$48.5
$50.0
Debt
Debt &
& Cash
Cash
$40.0
CAPEX Cost
$11.2
$30.0
License Cost
$10.1
$10.2
$25.8
$9.1
$6.7
$20.0
$24.9
$10.0
$22.0
$10.2
$18.5
$8.5
$22.7
$9.0
$4.7
$9.0
$8.5 $16.7
$4.6
$6.4
$9.0
$5.1
$3.3
$0.0
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Operators – names not revealed
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Source: Motorola / Chase Manhattan
9/00