VOL. 83, NO. C4 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH APRIL 20, 1978 Variations in the AlongshoreCorrelation of Sea Level Along the West Coast of North America STEPHEN R. OSMER USCG Researchand DevelopmentCenter, Groton, Connecticut06340 ADRIANA HUYER Schoolof Oceanography,OregonState University,Corvallis, Oregon97331 We investigatedsea level fluctuationsat seven locations from San Francisco to Torino, British Columbia, during a 2-year period beginning in August 1973. Using overlapping 2-month periods, we found the alongshorecorrelation to vary with time and with location along the coast. In winter the flfiCtuations arecorrelated alongtheentirecoastfromSanFrancisco toTorino; at intermediate locations the correlation is higher with Torino than with San Francisco. In summer, sea level variations at San Francisco and CrescentCity are not correlated with those farther north; there is still high alongshore correlation among the stationsto the north and also betweenCrescentCity and San Francisco.In all seasonstheesealevelfluctuationspropagatenorthward, althoughvariationsin the wind stresspropagate southward.At each location the sealevel is usuallyalso correlatedwith the local wind stress,the wind stressleading by about a day. INTRODUCTION filtered, but they were implicitly smoothedover both time and spacein the computationprocess. The 6-hour time seriesof atmosphericpressurewere usedto Sea level fluctuations with periods of several days have amplitudesof the order of 10 cm along the westcoastof North America. The fluctuations correct in sea level seem to be coherent with fluctuationsin the wind and current [Cutchinand Smith, 1973; Smith, 1974]. They are also highly coherent over alongshore separations of a fewhundred kilometers [Hu•Jer etal., 1975]. There is someevidencethat the sea level fluctuationspropagate northward in summer [Clarke, 1977; Wang and Mooers, 1977] but southwardin winter [Mooersand Smith, 1968];Ma [1970] found northward propagation in both summer and winter but at different phase speeds. Two years of sea level and wind stress data from seven for the 'inverted barometer effect' on sea level. To obtain the 'adjusted sea level' in centimetersfor each station, we removed a 2-year mean (computed for the period from August 1, 1973, to July 31, 1975) and added the atmospheric pressure(in millibars minus 1000). The time seriesof adjusted sealevel at the differentlocations(Figure 2) showthat the sea level fluctuations are larger in winter than in summer. In winter the fluctuationsare larger at the northern stations,but in summerthey are somewhatlarger at the southernstations. The time seriesof the northwardcomponentof the wind stress (Figure 3) show similar patterns:fluctuationsare larger in winter than in summer; in winter, they are largest at the thatstudywecalculated laggedandunlagged correlation coef- northernstations,and in summerthey are largestoff southern locations between San Francisco and Torino, British Colum- bia, were examinedin a recentpaper [Osmer, 1978].As part of ficients between Oregon and northern California. wind and sea level data at the same location and at different locationsand for different periods to determine if the correlation between sea level and wind same at different locationsand at differenttimes of the year and if the correlation between sea level at different ANALYSIS was the locations was independentof location and of season. We computedlinear correlationcoefficientsamong the sea level and wind stressrecords,both for the entire time period and for overlapping2-month periods.The usual formulasfor computing the significancelevels for correlation coefficients assumethat all data pairs are independent.In our data, how- OBSERVATIONS Hourly tide gage data were available for San Francisco, CrescentCity, Charleston,Newport, Toke Point, Neah Bay, and Torino (Figure 1) for the period from August 1, 1973, to September9, 1975. The hourly data were low passedto remove tidal oscillationsby using a filter designedby Godin [1966, 1972], which has a half-power point of 95 hours. The lowpassedtime serieswere decimated to a &hour data interval with 3080 points. Estimates of the 6-hour atmospheric pressureand wind stressat each tide gage location were supplied by Andrew Bakun of the National Marine FisheriesService, Monterey; theseestimateswere computedfrom the large-scalesynoptic pressurecharts as describedby Bakun [1973, 1975]. These times seriesof atmosphericpressureand wind stresswere not ever, a singleevent lasts a few days, while our samplesare separatedby only 6 hours; clearly, these pairs are not independent.To determinehow many independentsamplepairs therewere (and hencethe significancelevel), we computedthe integral time scale from the autocorrelationfunctionsand divided our total record length by this integral time scale [Allen and Kundu, 1978;Bendatand Piersol, 1971, p. 183]. Correlationcoefficients for the entireperiod. We computed both laggedand unlaggedalongshorecorrelation coefficients for the adjusted sea level and the wind stressand also the correlation coefficients between sea level and wind stress at each location. For sea level we found that the alongshore correlationwasmaximumat zero lag for almosteverycase;in no case did the maximum correlation exceed the zero lag correlationcoefficientby more than 0.03. At intermediate Copyright¸ 1978 by the AmericanGeophysicalUnion. Paper number 7C1089. 0148-0227/78/047C- 1089503.00 locationsthe sea level is more highly correlated with Torino 1921 1922 OSMER ANDHUYER: WESTCOAST SEALEVEL level at each location relative to Torino and San Francisco. During every period, the sea level at the southernlocations leads the sea level at the northern locations;betweenCrescent City and Torino the lag is about 1 day. The alongshorecorrelation variesa great deal during the 2-year period. In winter the sealevelfluctuationsare correlatedalongthe entirecoastfrom 48øN Torino to San Francisco, a distance of about 1260 km. In TOKF summerthe alongshorecoherenceis generallylower, and there seemto be two domains: sealevel fluctuationsalong the coast POI between Charleston and Torino are correlated, and sea level fluctuationsare also correlatedbetweenCrescentCity and San Francisco. In summer there is no significantcorrelation between Charleston and San Francisco (620 km) or between CrescentCity and Torino (820 km). The boundary between thesetwo domains seemsto be quite sharp:Figure 5 shows that in summer there is no significantcorrelation between Charlestonand CrescentCity, althoughthey are only 180km 46 o NEWPORT 44 o - Oregon - apart; at the sametime the sealevelat Charlestonis verywell correlatedwith Newport, and CrescentCity is well correlated CHARLESTON _ with San Francisco. Poor correlation between Crescent City and Torino occursin springand fall, just before and after the -- period of very poor correlationbetweenCrescentCity and 42 o CRESCENT Charleston. We can think of a moving boundary betweentwo domains:in winter it is south of San Francisco;in spring it movesnorthward, between San Franciscoand CrescentCity; in summerit liesbetweenCrescentCity and Charleston;and in fall it againmovessouthwardbetweenCrescentCity and San CITY Coliforn/• Franciscoto take up its winter positionsouth of San Fran- 40 o cisco. Table 2 showsthe alongshorecorrelation coefficientsfor wind stress at each location relative to Torino and San Fran- cisco.Wind stress,like sea level, has the highestalongshore 38 o SAN FRANCISCO TOFINO 60 ÷ I 128øW 124 ø 40: Fig. 1. Locations of the sea level observations. 20 0 than with San Francisco(Figure 4a), i.e., there is a definite asymmetryin the alongshorecorrelationfunctionof sealevel. For wind stress,too, the correlation coefficientwas maximum 0 at zero lag in almost every case, and in no case did the maximum correlation exceedthe zero lag correlation by more than 0.05. The wind stress at intermediate locations '' ' 'v'•V •v, 60 is as well correlated with San Francisco as with Torino (Figure 4b); there is no asymmetryin the alongshorecorrelation function •••ttTOKE POINT of the wind stress. At each location, sea level and wind stress are significantlycorrelated(Figure 4c), and the correlationcoefficientis maximumat about5 lags(30 hours),thewind stress leading the sea level. Thesecorrelationcoefficients werecomputedfrom the entire records of 3080 points each. In this calculation we made no attempt to remove the seasonalcyclesapparent in Figures2 and 3. Hence the correlationcoefficientsin Figure 4 reflectthe coherenceof the seasonalcyclesaswell asthe coherenceof the shorter-periodfluctuations. Correlation coefficientsfor 2-month segments. We computed similar correlation coefficientsfor 24 overlapping2month periods,startingwith August-September1973 and extending through July-August 1975. Each 2-month data seg- mentwaslinearlydetrended beforecorrelation coefficients were computed;this detrendingeffectivelyremovesthe seasonal variation from.the data. Table 1 showsthe alongshorecorrelationcoefficientsof sea ol i i i i •i i JAN 1974 i , , , i JUL i , , JAN i , , •• •1 JIUL 1975 Fig. 2. Time seriesof the adjustedsealevel(in centimeters)at each location, August 1, 1973, to September9, 1975. OSMERANDHUYER:WESTCOASTSEALEVEL 1923 fluctuationsalong the North American west coastin terms of coastallytrapped long waves.Thesemodelscan accountfor the northward propagation of sea level and current fluctuations [MooersandSmith, 1968;CutchinandSmith, 1973;Wang and Mooers, 1977]and alsofor the high alongshorecorrelation [Huyer et al., 1975;KunduandAllen, 1976].Gill andSchumann [1974] deviseda model for the generationof long shelfwaves by the wind; Clarke [1977] used this model to compute sea level at Newport from wind stressat severallocationssouthof Newport and obtained reasonable agreement with the observedsealevel;he also obtainedreasonableagreementassuming purely local generation. Our observationthat sealevelfluctuationspropagatenorthward, while wind stressfluctuations propagate southward, strongly suggeststhat the response to the wind is predominantly in free, rather than forced, shelf waves. Forced shelf waveswould propagatein the samedirection as that of the forcing mechanism,i.e., the wind stress[Gill and Schumann, 1974]. We found that the sea level is almost always significantly correlated with the local wind stress. We also found that the lag betweenwind stressand sea level at the same location is about a day, regardlessof the location.Togethertheseobservations suggestthat at each location a significantportion of thesealevelfluctuations isgenerated locallybythewindstress. The properties of free barotropic continental shelf waves SEA A LEVEL rs. San Francisco rs. Torino Fig. 3. Time seriesof the northward componentof the wind stress (in dynesper squarecentimeter)at each location as computedfrom the large-scalesynopticpressurecharts [Bakun, 1973],August 1, 1973, to September9, 1975. Sea Sea Level Level 0 o $ o 0.4 correlation coefficients in late winter and the lowest values in summer and fall. Unlike sea level the wind stress at the north- o i • i i 1200 800 ALONGSHORE ern locationstendsto lead(althoughonly by severalhours)the i i 400 o SEPARATION (kin) wind stress at the southern locations. In winter the wind stress A is correlated along the entire coast from San Franciscoto Torino. In summer the wind stress at San Francisco A - is not significantlycorrelatedwith the wind stressat Torino, and the wind stressat CrescentCity is more highlycorrelatedwith San ß A WIND STRESS _ v$ Son Francisco Wind Stress ß vs Torino Franciscothan with Torino.This againsuggests the presence W/nd Stress IX _ of two domains in summer. We were not able to establish i whetherthere really are two domainsin the wind stressor to investigatethe boundary between them: the wind stressestimatesat neighboringstationsare not independent,sincethe I i I I 400 800 ALONGSHORE SEPARATION (kin) SEA original atmosphericpressuredata are storedon a 3ø grid LEVEL [Bakun, 1973, 1975]. Becauseof this, correlation coefficients betweenwind stressat locationslessthan 3ø (330 km) apart are veryhigh,e.g., over0.95 for Newport and Charleston(140 km) andover0.8 for Charleston andCrescent City( 180km). Table 3 shows the correlation coefficients between the north- wardcomponent of windstress andthe sealevelat each location. In general, wind stressleads sea level at the same location by about 1 day. There is no o'bviousseasonalvariation in the correlation between wind stress and sea level. At the threecentrallocations,Charleston,Newport,and Toke Point, the wind stressand sealevel are almost alwayscorrelatedat • . ß ß •0.4II•[] • o o ß [] • vs. WIND STRESS Unlagged Corr Coeff. [] Maximum CoefL ß Corr. ß [] [] ß [] i DISTANCE /%• i 40o 8oo FROM 1200 TOFINO Fig. 4. Correlationcoefficients calculatedfor theentireperiod:(a) Maximumcorrelationcoe•cientsas a functionof alongshore separation for sea level at each location relative to Torino and San Francisco. (b) Maximum correlationcoefficientsas a function of alongshore separationfor the northward componentof wind stressat each loca- the 1% level. tion relativeto TorinoandSanFrancisco.(c) Unlaggedandmaximum DISCUSSION Beginningwith Mooers and Smith [1968] there have been severalattemptsto accountfor the nature of the sea level correlation coe•cients between the adjusted sea level and the north- ward componentof the wind stressat each location,plotted as a functionof distancefrom Torino.The dashedline in eachcaserepresentsthe 1% significancelevel. 1924 OSMER ANDHUYER:WESTCOAST SEALEVEL + ++++ ++++ + + + +++ o • +++ .,.. • ,.• Z --. o•, +• +++ + -- +++ +++ + o • +++ +++++ o ._= o .,-. +++ ++++ ++ ++ .,.. -'• o ++ + + •o + o • o ,_. r,• ,,. ,-- OSMERANDHUYER:WESTCOASTSEALEVEL c• ,.• c• o o ._, ._, o o ._, o oooooo•• m o o o o z o ._, o o ._, o ._, •",,I o ••ooooo 1925 1926 OSMERANDHUYER:WESTCOASTSEALEVEL 0 197,.•-1974 ß /974-1975 that the seasonalchangein stratificationmight be suitable, alongpart of the coastline,for the presence of internalKelvin wavesduringpart of the year and of barotropiccontinental shelfwavesduringthe remainderof theyear.Sucha changein stratification wouldresultin quitedifferentpropagationvelocitiesbut wouldprobablynot affectthe alongshore correlation 0.8•,0""0 '0-0• k,, • NEWPORT vs. CHARLESTON (140km) I,• 0 I of coastal sea level. If localgenerationby the wind stressis importantin determining the characterof the shelf waves,we might expect alongshoreand seasonalvariations in the wind stressfield to affectthe sea level. We saw earlier that in winter, wind stress • 0• fluctuationsare correlatedalong the entirecoast.In summer the windstressat SanFranciscois not significantly correlated 0.4 - -- ! -- -- - . • • 0 • • CHARLESTON rs.CRESCENT CITY(180km) I I I I I I I I I ! I I -GRESGEMT CITY rs.S•MER•MGISGO (440kin) 0.8- •0• o- -/- _ _,, ,,- / 7o with the wind stress at Torino. We were unable to determine whetherthereis a narrow boundarybetweentwo domainsin the wind stressfield, as there appearsto be in the coastalsea levelfluctuations. Thereis a suggestion thatsucha boundary may indeedexist:the latitude of the centerof the North Pacific high-pressure cell variesfrom about30øN (well southof San Francisco) to about40øN(aboutthelatitudeof Crescent City) in summer.It may be that there is somefeaturein the atmosphereassociated with this high that actsas a barrier to the propagation of fluctuations in the wind stress. CONCLUSIONS o Sealevelfluctuationsalongthe PacificNorthwestcoasttend Fig. 5. S•asonalvariation althoughfluctuationsin th• adjusted s•al•v•l for n•ighboring stations: N•wportandCharl•s- to propagatenorthwardin all seasons, tendto propagate southward. Hencea signifiton,Charleston andCrescent City, andCrescent City andSanFran- thewindstress cisco. cantportionof thesealevelfluctuations isprobablyassociated withfree,asopposedto forced,coastally trappedlongwaves. dependonly on the bathymetryof the continentalshelfand Sea level fluctuationsare significantlycorrelatedwith local slope region. Hence thealongshore correlation wouldnotvary variationsin thewindstressandlagthewindstress by about1 seasonally. Therearemorecomplex theories [e.g.,Allen,1975] day. in whichthenatureof coastally trapped waves depends onthe We have shownthat the alongshorecorrelationcoefficients stratification as well ason thebathymetry. It is conceivableof sealevelalongthePacificNorthwestcoastvarywithseason TABLE 3. Maximum Lagged Correlation Coefficients CCr•Between theSeaLevel andtheNorthward Component ofWindStress atEach Locationfor 24 Overlapping2-Month Periods CCm Period Torino Neah Bay TokePoint Newport CharlestonCrescent City SanFrancisco A73-S73 S73-O73 O73-N73 N73-D73 D73-J74 J74-F74 F74-M74 M74-A74 A74-M74 0.44(-2) 0.35(-1) 0.34(+4) 0.38(+4) 0.46(-2) 0.43(+3) 0.41 (+5) 0.41(+5) 0.31(+5) 0.46(+4) 0.33(+5) 0.45(+5) 0.50(+5) 0.51 (+6) 0.48(+5) 0.47(+6) 0.40(+8) 0.41(+4) 0.48(+4) 0.49(+4) 0.56(+4) 0.54(+4) 0.53(+4) 0.55(+4) 0.60(+4) 0.58(+5) 0.48(+4) 0.65(+5) 0.53(+4) 0.50(+5) 0.61 (+8) 0.64(+7) 0.54(+5) 0.53(+6) 0.53(+5) 0.50(+4) 0.62(+5) 0.52(+5) 0.54(+5) 0.67(+7) 0.70(+7) 0.60(+5) 0.61 (+6) 0.54(+6) 0.60(+4) 0.63(+4) 0.64(+4) 0.64(+4) 0.41(+4) 0.46(+4) 0.47(+8) 0.51(+6) 0.40(+8) 0.41(+8) . 0.37(+5) 0.33(+4) 0.32(+4) 0.36(+4) 0.41 (+4) 0.43(+4) 0.44(+4) 0.60(+5) 0.59(+4) 0.48(+5) 0.57(+6) 0.58(+4) 0.64(+5) 0.58(+3) 0.55(+4) 0.38(+4) 0.53(+6) 0.34(+6) 0.39(+5) 0.33(+5) 0.44(+6) 0.47(+6) 0.56(+6) 0.58(+5) 0.68(+5) M74-J74 J74-J74 J74-A74 A74-S74 S74-O74 O74-N74 N74-D74 D74-J75 J75-F75 F75-M75 M75-A75 A75-M75 M75-J75 J75-J75 J75,A75 0.37(+4) 0.40(+5) 0.38(+1) 0.42(+4) 0.37(+5) 0.33(-2) 0.36(-1) 0.58(+4) 0.34 0.47(+5) 0.50(+5) 0.50(+5) 0.37(+8) 0.41(+8) 0.39(+6) 0.33(+5) 0.35(+9) 0.37(+7) 0.58(+7) 0.50(+12) 0.49(+5) 0.39(+4) 0.51(+4) 0.52(+5) 0.59(+4) 0.56(+2) 0.63(+5) 0.65(+4) 0.56 0.66(+6) 0.69(+4) 0.43(+4) 0.67(+4) 0.64(+4) 0.58(+5) 0.71 (+5) 0.69(+3) 0.61 (+4) 0.65(+6) 0.32(+4) 0.58(+4) 0.55(+6) 0.44(+5) 0.31(+5) 0.51 (+4) 0.47(+6) 0.55(+6) 0.56(+4) 0.38(+6) 0.3•(+4) 0.44(+4) 0.44(+4) 0.59(+4) 0.66(+4) 0.59(+6) 0.42(+4) 0.56(+4) 0.54(+4) 0.49(+1) 0.41(+4) 0.49(+4) 0.37 (+4) 0.55(+3) 0.48 0.67 (+4) 0.59(+4) 0.61 (+4) 0.38 0.45(+4) 0.32 0.37 ThelagL, inmultiples of6 hours, isshown (inparentheses) if it isdifferent fromzero. A positive lagindicates thatthewindstress leads thesealevel. The5%,1%,and0.1% significance levels are0.30, 0.38,and0.48,respectively. Correlation coefficients less than 0.30arenotshown. OSMERAND HUYER:WESTCOASTSEALEVEL 1927 America, 1967-1973, Tech. Rep. Nat. Mar. Fish. Serv. SSRF-693, and with location along the coast. In winter the alongshore Nat. Oceanicand Atmos..Admin., Seattle,Wash., 1975. correlationis highest,and sealevelfluctuationsare correlated Bendat, J. S., and A. G. Piersol,RandomData.' Analysisand Measurealongtheentirestretchof coastfrom SanFranciscoto Torino. ment Procedures,407 pp., John Wiley, New York, 1971. In summerthereis pooralongshore correlationbetween Char- Clarke, A. J., Observational and numerical evidencefor wind-forced leston and CrescentCity, although there is high alongshore coastaltrappedlong waves,J. Phys. Oceanogr.,7, 231-247, 1977. correlationboth north and southof this apparentboundary. Cutchin, D. L., and R. L. Smith, Continental shelf waves: Lowfrequencyvariations in sea level and currentsover the Oregon We suggest that theremay be two domainsof coastalsealevel continental shelf,J. Phys. Oceanogr.,3, 73-82, 1973. fluctuationsyear-round:in winterthe boundarybetweenthem Gill,A. E.,andE. H. Schumann, Thegeneration of longshelfwaves is southof San Francisco,in springit movesnorthwardto its by the wind, J. Phys.Oceanogr.,4, 83-90, 1974. summerpositionbetweenCrescentCity and Charleston,and Godin, G., Daily mean sea level and short period seiches,Int. Hydrogr. Rev., 43, 75-89, 1966. in fall it returnsto itswinterpositionsouthof SanFrancisco. We are unable to account in detail for the seasonal variation Godin, G., The Analysisof Tides, 264 pp., University of Toronto Press, Toronto, 1972. in the alongshorecorrelationof sealevel fluctuations.How- H uyer, A., B. M. Hickey, J. D. Smith, R. L. Smith, and R. D. ever,the alongshorecorrelationof wind stressshowsa similar Pillsbury,Alongshorecoherenceat low frequenciesin currentsobserved over the continental shelf off Oregon and Washington,J. seasonalvariation.There mightwell be a seasonallymigrating Geophys.Res., 80, 3495-3505, 1975. barrier to the alongshorepropagationof fluctuationsin the wind stress. Acknowledgments.This study was completed while the senior author was completinghis M.S. degreeat Oregon State University. National ScienceFoundation grant DES 74-22290 provided support for the junior author and for the computer processing.We thank Robert L. Smith and John S. Allen for helpful commentsand Andrew Bakum for supplyingthe wind stressand atmosphericpressuredata. Kundu, P. K., and J. S. Allen, Some three-dimensionalcharacteristics of low frequencycurrent fluctuations near the Oregon coast, J. Phys. Oceanogr.,6, 188-199, 1976. Ma, H. S., Sea level responseto low-frequencyatmosphericpressure fluctuationsalong the northwesternAmerican coast, M.S. thesis, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, 1970. Mooers, C. N. K., and R. L. Smith, Continental shelf waves off Oregon, J. Geophys.Res., 73, 549-557, 1968. Osmer, S.R.,A statistical analysis ofsealevelandWindstress atseven locationson the west coast of North America, M.S. thesis,Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, 1978. REFERENCES Allen, J. S., Coastal trapped waves in a stratified ocean,J. Phys. Oceanogr.,5, 300-325, 1975. Allen, J. S., and P. K. Kundu, On the momentum,vorticity, and mass balanceoff the Oregon coast,J. Phys. Oceanogr.,in press,1978. Bakun, A., Coastalupwellingindices,westcoastof North America, 1947-1971,Tech.Rep. Nat. Mar. Fish.$erv. SSRF-671,Nat. Oceanic and Atmos. Admin., Seattle, Wash., 1973. Bakun, A., Daily and weeklyupwellingindices,westcoastof North Smith, R. L., A descriptionof current, wind, and sealevel variations duringcoastalupwellingoff the Oregoncoast,July-August 1972,J. Geophys.Res., 79, 435-443, 1974. Wang, D.-P., and C. N. K. Mooers, Long coastaltrappedwavesoff the west coast •f the United States, summer, 1973, J. Phys. Oceanogr.,6, 856-864, 1977. (Received September26, 1977; revised November 18, 1977; accepted November 21, 1977.)