Ceremony 6 Academic Oration Tuesday 26 November 2013 at 1630hrs JESUITS’ CHURCH – VALLETTA Professor Stephen Calleya B.Ed.(Hons), M.A., Ph.D.(Warw.) Our Mediterranean I am honoured of having been invited to address you on such a special occasion. When I was invited by the Senate to deliver today’s oration I decided to address an issue which we at the Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies focus on daily, the state of our Mediterranean, and the importance of diplomacy in fostering a more peaceful and prosperous Mediterranean. The heterogeneous nature of the Mediterranean represents a great challenge when it comes to managing the security challenges present in contemporary international relations. The Mediterranean Sea connects three continents. In the words of Fernand Braudel: The Mediterranean is not even a single sea, it is a complex of seas; and these seas are broken up by islands, interrupted by peninsulas, ringed by intricate coastlines.*1 From a strategic perspective the historian David Abulafia in his recent book ‘The Great Sea’ notes at least four different “seas”: the western Mediterranean from Gibraltar to the Gulf of Sirte, linking southern Europe to the Maghreb; the Adriatic Sea, linking Italy to the Balkans; the Aegean Sea connecting Greece, Turkey, and Cyprus; and the eastern Mediterranean basin also in the vicinity of the Israeli-Arab conflict.*2 An analysis of the pattern of relations in the different sub regions of the Mediterranean a decade into the new millennium reveals that while Southern Europe states have become more deeply integrated into the European sphere of influence, similar to their counterparts in Eastern Europe since the end of the Cold War, no similar pattern of unity is noticeable across the other Mediterranean sub regions. Actually several Arab states in the Maghreb and Mashreq resisted the option of embracing the global trends of democracy and liberal values until the Arab Spring of 2011 changed the equation completely. It remains to be seen if most states along the southern shore of the Mediterranean succeed in their efforts to implement political and economic reform or become victims of the faltering states syndrome. Given the fluid nature of security after the first decade of the new millennium what strategic diplomatic policy needs to be implemented to minimize the level of turbulence between different states across the Mediterranean area? Can a regional Mediterranean security arrangement be established to address security challenges in a more consistent and coherent manner? Given the heterogeneous nature of the Mediterranean system of states is it more feasible to address security challenges through smaller sub regional diplomacy? Does the diversity of security interests especially along the north-south axis of Mediterranean relations dictate that security issues can only be contained effectively through the active diplomatic engagement of extra regional actors such as the United States, European Union, the United Nations and the Group of 20? The continuous emergence of different sources of insecurity demands a more flexible modality of security management and robust diplomacy as states in the international system seek to limit the ramifications from the permanent insecurity landscape we find ourselves in. Security Dynamics in the Euro-Mediterranean Area: Towards a New Cold War? Throughout history the Mediterranean has continuously been at the centre of international relations. The end of the Cold War led some pundits to believe that the Mediterranean would be marginalized in global relations. The enlargement of the European Union towards the east, the rise of China in Asia and the emergence of India and Brazil as leading economic developing countries further cemented this perception. Yet the process of globalization has not shifted international attention away from the Mediterranean. Two decades since the end of the Cold War it is clear that the Mediterranean remains an essential strategic theatre of operation linking Europe, North Africa, the Balkans, the Middle East and the Black Sea together. The physical importance of the Mediterranean as a geo-strategic waterway remains a constant. Evidence of this is further highlighted by the fact that the President of the only superpower in international relations, Barack Obama, dedicated his entire address to the 68th General Assembly of the United Nations in September of this year to the priority that the United States attaches to the Middle East and North Africa. President Obama’s main call was for the international community to join diplomatic forces to resolve conflicts and promote democracy, human rights and open markets across the Mediterranean. The Mediterranean continues to be a source of instability in international relations. It is the location of the more than six decade old conflict between Israel and Palestine. In addition to the continuous hostilities between these two peoples, this conflict also attracts the attention of Euro-Mediterranean regional actors and international great powers. The Arab Spring of 2011 has also unleashed a period of upheaval that has further attracted international attention to the Mediterranean. Prospects for Euro-Mediterranean Security in the Twenty-First Century Sustainability of the new era of democratic reform across the southern shores of the Mediterranean will require economic development on a major scale for decades. In order to attract the billions of euros necessary to spur job creation and improve Mediterranean competitiveness the international community needs to provide political and economic support that assists in creating the conducive type of environment that will attract international investors to the region. Looking ahead over the next two decades the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will remain an important geopolitical location due to the large oil deposits in this region of the world and the region’s potential as a source of instability. The MENA’s near future will be determined by how the leaders of these countries decide to manage energy profits, demographic changes, political reform, and open conflicts. The turbulent forces at play in so many of these states dictates the necessity to dedicate all diplomatic resources towards addressing and hopefully resolving regional conflicts and to seek to develop a security arrangement that would help to stabilize the region. Failure to introduce such a process is certain to negatively influence Middle Eastern states’ chances to implement political and economic reform. Central to reducing animosity in the Middle East is resolution of the Syrian and Palestinian conflicts with Israel. Cooperative relations with Israel would undermine a traditional pretext for maintaining large military procurement and curtailing freedoms. It would also help diffuse sectarian and ethnic tensions across the region. Irregular Migration In the first decade of the new millennium the Mediterranean has increasingly moved into the international spotlight as a front-line area for irregular migration from the African continent towards the European Union. Since 2002, the central Mediterranean has experienced a growing influx of migrants predominately from the Horn of Africa, practically all of which have departed from the Libyan coast towards Europe. Even though, in absolute terms, the total number of sea-borne migrants crossing the Mediterranean has not consisted of a massive exodus from Africa, the continuous flow of migrants has become a permanent feature of the security challenge landscape. Moreover, the challenge of managing illegal migration flows has had an enormous impact on the small state of Malta in proportional terms, given the country’s small size and very high population density.*3 Consequently, illegal immigration has become one of Malta’s top policy priorities, nationally as well as at the EU level, where Malta has been calling for burden-sharing mechanisms and support from other EU countries in coping with the growth in irregular immigration. Moreover, boat migration across the Mediterranean has also become an increasingly pressing humanitarian challenge. It is estimated that in recent years at least several hundred would-be immigrants have died every year in the Mediterranean trying to reach the EU from the south. I am certain everyone recalls the vivid images of the horrible human catastrophe that recently occurred off Lampedusa. Next year Malta commemorates 50 years of Independence, 40 years since becoming a Republic, 35 years since Freedom Day and 10 years since becoming a member of the European Union. It is essential that these national occasions of historic importance serve as a platform upon which the profile of Malta’s Mediterranean vocation and continuous commitment to enhancing stability across the Mediterranean is raised. This strategic objective of our foreign policy has become even more relevant in the uncertain times we find ourselves in. Malta’s Euro-Mediterranean vocation has always rested upon the premise that there can be no peace and stability in Europe if there is no peace and stability in the Mediterranean and vice-versa. As members of the EU we must do everything possible to persuade and convince our fellow members that Europe’s security is indivisible from that of the Mediterranean. Malta, together with other European and Mediterranean states must articulate clearly that the EU must adopt a more proactive stance when it comes to influencing and managing relations in the Mediterranean area. As Malta prepares to celebrate important historic occasions and maps out its foreign policy agenda for its 2017 EU Presidency its strategic objective should be a straightforward one: Malta should seek stability in a sea of instability. It has taken the EU 40 years to launch and start implementing a comprehensive Euro-Mediterranean policy. If a Pax Euro-Mediterranea is to be established over the next few decades, it is essential that the EU focus on spreading prosperity’s benefits more fairly with its neighbours in the south. The Mediterranean must not become a wall of poverty along the EU’s southern periphery. This is the ultimate challenge facing the international community in the Mediterranean. Malta has a historical vocation to be at the forefront of this challenge. Finally, to you the graduands, we are here today to celebrate your accomplishments. Congratulations for arriving at this milestone and to the parents and loved ones who have sacrificed so much with you throughout the years. The years of hard work and studying have paid off. You are concluding one chapter in your lifetime and commencing a new one. As alumni of this university, you are all ambassadors of the University of Malta. You have been provided with the skills and the intellect to make a difference; be relevant in every career path you pursue and make the most of all your endeavours to assist in making the Mediterranean a better place.