Offsetting Behavior and Compensation Reform∗ N. K. Chidambaran Graduate School of Business Fordham University New York, NY 10023 (646) 828-7830 chidambaran@fordham.edu Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala Robert H. Smith School of Business University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742 (301) 405 2165 nprabhal@rhsmith.umd.edu July 2009 JEL Classification: G30, G34, G38, K22, L51, M48 ∗ We thank Doron Avramov, Effi Benmelech (the WFA discussant), Ren-Raw Chen, Jeffrey Coles, Doug Emory, Ben Esty, Jon Ingersoll, Dirk Jenter, Kose John, Mudit Kapoor, Michael Long, Luann Lynch, Dilip Madan, Vojislav Maksimovic, Robert Marquez, Stewart Mayhew, Oded Palmon, Charu Raheja, seminar participants at CUNY Baruch, Darden School, FDIC, Fordham University, Indian School of Business, University of Minnesota, Vanderbilt University, and the 2008 Western Finance Association meetings for their comments. Offsetting Behavior and Compensation Reform ABSTRACT Calls for regulation and reform of compensation have intensified following the 2008 financial crisis, as flawed compensation is implicated as a cause of the crisis. Our study illustrates a key difficulty in implementing reform through regulation: offsetting behavior, which can entirely undo regulatory intent and even impose additional costs on shareholders. We show these effects in the context of compensation contracts, using as a laboratory the punitive disclosure requirements imposed in 1998 to deter repricing. Firms demonstrate strong offsetting behavior by squeezing out compensation through a substitute, which is paradoxically costlier for shareholders. The excess costs are best explained by a wedge between employee and firm incentive valuations and we characterize its nature. We also find offsetting behavior in broader samples of all firms with underwater options after 1998. We discuss the implications for the design of compensation design and reforms likely to be most effective in curbing compensation excesses. Curbing executive compensation is like moving Jell-O. When it’s limited in one area, it squirts out in another. – Kayla Gillan, Ex-general counsel, CALPERS1 1 Introduction The 2008 financial crisis has led to unprecedented levels of government intervention in financial markets and calls for a new framework for regulating markets. A key target for regulatory reform, one that has drawn extensive attention in the popular press, is executive compensation contracts. Flawed compensation practices are held to be one cause of excessive risk-taking that led to the 2008 financial crisis. Thus, compensation restrictions form an important component of the 2008 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act.2 The discussion over reforming compensation practices is familiar to researchers in executive compensation. The 1990s have witnessed a sharp growth in executive compensation (see, e.g., Murphy (1999), Bebchuk and Fried (2004), or Bebchuk and Grinstein (2005)), fueled largely by options and equity-linked incentive compensation, Has this compensation growth been appropriate or excessive? How could compensation be reined in or reformed? Firm answers have proven elusive and the literature continues to debate the issues. Several proposals to reform compensation involve imposing restrictions or penalties on particular elements of compensation packages. An early instance is a provision in the 1993 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act that eliminates the tax deductibility of base salaries over $1 million. Other restrictions include eliminating options, using industry-indexed option payoffs, using restricted stock grants in lieu of options, or 1 Kayla Gillan, former general counsel of the California Public Employees Retirement System (CALPERS) the largest pension fund in the U.S., and member of the Public Companies Accounting Oversight Board, quoted in The Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2006 2 For instance, the CEOs and the top 100 executives of institutions receiving Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funding are subject to compensation restrictions as per the interim final rules issued by the Financial Stability Board on June 10, 2009. Restricting compensation contracts is also a target for future regulatory reforms aimed at preventing financial crises. See Section V.H of the June 2009 document “Financial Regulatory Reform: A New Foundation” issued by the Treasury. 1 more recently, curbing certain types of compensation such as golden parachutes or outright caps on bonuses or salaries through government regulations. The likely economic consequences of such efforts are of major interest to both academics and policy makers and this is our central focus. We show that attempts to reform compensation by restricting or penalizing specific pieces are particularly difficult. As suggested by the introductory quote from the CALPERS general counsel, these efforts often lead to simply shifting the compensation vehicle. Such shifts could actually end up imposing additional costs in unexpected ways as we show here. These effects need to be incorporated into the efforts to reform compensation. One difficulty with enforcing reform is pointed out by Benmelech and Moskowitz (2009), who study 19th century usury laws. They point out that regulations are often written for private rather than public interest. As a result, “... regulation designed to serve the politically and financially weak has the unintended consequence of exacerbating their plight.” We illustrate that similar distortionary effects arise due to a different economic force: offsetting behavior of the regulated in response to restrictions. As Peltzman (1975) points out, offsetting behavior could attenuate, entirely reverse, or even produce harmful effects that undermine the intent of regulatory restrictions. We empirically illustrate offsetting behavior and its consequences in the context of compensation contracts. We find offsetting behavior of a particularly strong flavor: when faced with compensation restrictions, a sample of firms not only offset the restrictions through a contracting mutation, but also end up incurring excess costs as a result. Using the taxonomy of Peltzman (1975), this is an unusual instance of “more than complete” offset. The fact that shareholders might incur extra costs may seem puzzling because substituting one form of compensation for another could perhaps be done in a cost-neutral manner. However, as we show, contracting alternatives need not be cost neutral mutations even if designed to deliver similar benefits. In fact, we show that excess costs are exactly what one should expect when there is wedge between how firms and employees value incentive contracts. We characterize the nature of this 2 wedge implied by our sample data and provide supplementary evidence on its nature in an independent sample. The empirical setting in our paper is a regulation-induced shift away from repricing after 1998. To motivate the details of our analysis, consider a firm that grants an employee stock option at date t. Consider a future date t + ∆t, where ∆t is of the order of a few months, well before the typical option term of 10 years. The firm’s stock price could increase over the interval (t, t + ∆t), in which case the option becomes in-the-money. On the other hand, the stock price could drop, in which case the option grant is “underwater” at t + ∆t. In principle, the firm could do nothing and let the options be, on grounds that employees who benefit from options’ upside should also suffer its downside consequences. In practice, however, firms make attempts to revive deep out-of-the-money underwater options. Historically, one approach was to reprice options, or lower their strikes. Vociferous opposition to repricing precipitated punitive disclosure requirements that required repricers to expense options as a charge to income. Not surprisingly, the new rules essentially extinguished repricing. As Figure 1 shows, repricing fell out of favor after 1998. The demise of repricing is especially stark given the post-Internet bubble stock market crash after 2000. Ordinarily, such a crash would increase repricing. Yet, Figure 1 shows that repricing is virtually extinct after 1998. While option repricing drops after 1998, option grants do not. Firms continue to make option grants. These options can go underwater and the question is what firms do given that the bar is raised on repricing. One possibility is that firms could do nothing to make up for underwater options. Alternatively, they could work around repricing restrictions, by squeezing out compensation through other means. In particular, one alternative used by firms was to make refresher’ grants. In this approach, firms give employees some quantity of new at-the-money options to compensate for the old options going underwater, leaving the old options as is. Figure 2 illustrates out of cycle refresher grants for EXECUCOMP firms. Refresher grants show a clearly 3 visible spike right around the demise of repricing, indicating that firms seemed to use refreshers to substitute for repricing (see, e.g., Murphy (1999) or Murphy (2003)).3 Our analysis of what firms do in response to the restrictions on repricing is in two parts. First we examine in detail the costs when firms offset repricing restrictions through out-of-cycle refresher grants. Next we examine the overall compensation in all firms that have underwater options. A critical first step in our analysis of offsetting behavior through refresher grants is to identify a reliable sample of firms that make out of cycle refresher grants to compensate for options going underwater. A difficulty is that compensation disclosures do not explicitly mark refresher grants. We adopt the empirical strategy of Murphy (2003), who observes that multiple option grants within the same year, or “out-of-cycle” grants, could mark refresher grants. We start with a sample of multiple grant firms identified from the EXECUCOMP database. We carefully refine the initial sample to preclude idiosyncratic causal factors unrelated to underwater options through quantitative screens described later and ultimately by reading proxies and 10-K’s for any inconsistencies or errors. Our final sample comprises 135 cases in which firms use out-of-cycle grants to refresh portfolios of underwater options. The second step in our analysis is to identify the portfolio of outstanding underwater stock options. This is not straightforward given the nature of disclosures available in proxies and 10-K statements, which do not clearly identify option portfolios of executives at the end of each year. We build the time t options portfolio of each executive by sequentially updating information on t − 1 portfolios with the flow of new grants, exercises, and cancellations reported in EXECUCOMP. We determine the option moneyness and maturity of outstanding options as of the date on which a refresher grant is made. We compare the costs of refresher grants with the costs of a hypothetical counterfactual repricing of all the outstanding out-of-the money options. We use the 3 Footnote 26 in Murphy (1999) is especially relevant. Murphy (2003) discusses survey evidence from compensation consultants on refresher grant usage and presents data on practices of new economy firms. 4 Black-Scholes model to compute the cost of refresher grants and that of the hypothetical repricing. On a firm-wide basis, the median (mean) Black-Scholes cost of the out-of-cycle refresher grants equal $8.1 mm ($49.8 mm). Had the companies in our sample repriced the outstanding out-of-the-money options, the median (mean) costs of repricing would be $2.2 mm ($17.7 mm). The median (mean) excess cost of making refresher grants in lieu of repricing is positive and equals $4.2 mm ($32 mm). This example illustrates offsetting behavior and its costs. We have an example of a “Peltzman Effect” with more than complete offset, where the costs of the offsetting behavior (refresher grants) exceed the costs of repricing being eliminated by firms. The additional costs of refresher grants vis-a-vis repricing are economically intriguing in their own right. Why might it be economically rational for firms to incur these costs? We consider and rule out several explanations for the excess refresher costs. One explanation is that the excess costs reflect secular trends in the labor markets after 1998 that led to increases in compensation for firms making refresher grants. We test for this hypothesis using compensation regression specifications used in the literature and show cannot explain the cost differentials. Another possibility is that there are other compensation adjustments we do not pick up. This possibility is rejected by our sampling strategy, the prior literature on repricing, and the compensation data around refresher grant dates. Yet another explanation is that perhaps the portfolio of underwater and at-the-money option grants created by a refresher grants strategy is a more “optimal” contact relative to repricing. This is implausible. All received evidence we are aware of suggests that firms consider underwater options a nuisance with poor motivational effects, which calls for such options to be extinguished rather instead of being kept alive, as in a refresher grant strategy. Above all, the hypotheses has a hard time explaining the time series pattern in the evolution of refresher grants, specifically, why refresher grants spike right around the 1998 regulations concerning repricing. Finally, we show that the features peculiar to employee stock options such as early exercise cannot explain the cost differential. 5 In our view, a more convincing explanation for the excess costs is the existence of a wedge between the ways employees and firms value equity incentives. Specifically, if employees’ valuation of options declines faster than the firms’ valuation when stock prices decline, strategies that keep underwater options alive (such as refresher grants) will be costlier than strategies that extinguish underwater options (such as repricing). Such a wedge arises, for instance, in valuation models where employees are risk averse and under-diversified (Hall and Murphy (2000), Ingersoll (2006), Meulbroek (2001)). Alternatively, the wedge could be a by-product of behavioral models of excessive extrapolation where sentiments cause employee valuations to swing from optimism to pessimism as stock prices decline (Bergman and Jenter (forthcoming)). Our results are consistent with the existence of such an employee-firm valuation wedge. The second part of our analysis broadens our analysis from just out of cycle refresher granting firms to incorporate all firms facing significant underwater options. The motivation for this exercise is that our first analysis covers only a subsample of firms facing underwater options: those who respond with out of cycle refresher grants. In this sample, offsetting behavior results in excess costs. To assess the overall impact of the 1998 shift away from repricing, we need to examine other firms who faced underwater options but who did not use out of cycle refreshers. Some of these firms may have elected to forgo all repricing substitutes. Others could have bundled substitute compensation within the normal cycle, masking its visibility to the empirical researcher. If the broader effect of the 1998 shift is to cut back compensation at firms whose options go underwater after 1998, the testable implication is that the total compensation at these firms should decline relative to predicted compensation. We implement this test by identifying underwater firms after 1998 and testing whether their compensation is abnormally low relative to expected compensation. We find little evidence of a post-1998 slowdown in compensation at these firms, suggesting that the impact of offsetting behavior is detectable even in the aggregate universe of all “underwater” firms and not just the subset who made refresher grants. 6 The rest of the paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 reviews the related literature. Section 3 develops the refresher grant sample. Section 4 presents evidence on their excess costs of refresher grants. Section 5 presents evidence from the broad universe of all firms facing underwater options. Section 6 ties the excess costs of refresher grants to the wedge between how firms and employees value incentive options. Section 7 concludes. The Appendix presents additional independent evidence from Microsoft’s 2003 tender offer for underwater stock options. 2 Related Literature The theme of offsetting behavior has its origins in regulatory economics. The seminal study by Peltzman (1975) examines automobile seat belt regulations. Peltzman argues that while mandating seat belts increases driver safety, this theoretical engineering benefit is diluted by offsetting behavior. Seat-belted drivers may drive faster or in more reckless ways, lessening the benefit of seatbelts for themselves. A more subtle effect is that more risky driving increases the hazards for pedestrians and other less protected road users. Peltzman (2005) reviews other work on offsetting behavior, including responses to the Endangered Species Act (Lueck and Michael (2003)) and, in labor economics, responses to the Americans with Disabilities Act (Acemoglu and Angrist (2001)). Offsetting behavior is also a staple of the tax policy literature on the Laffer curve, where supply side economists argue that tax revenues may actually increase after tax cuts because employees are incentivized to work harder and thus generate more taxable income. Such effects are the focus of the “new tax responsiveness” literature that analyzes taxable income (rather than labor supply) responses to tax changes (Feldstein (1995), Goolsbee (2002), Goolsbee (2000)). Interesting offsetting behavior is also documented by Klick and Stratmann (2003), who study workplace safety inspections. They report that more safety inspections counterintuitively lead to higher death rates, suggesting that increased the benefits of more safety measures are offset by riskier behavior on the part of workers. In a 7 different context, Milkovic, Nganje, and Onyango (2009) report that food poisoning cases increase after new, more stringent food safety policies are enacted and implemented in the food processing sector.4 Other examples of offsetting behavior include Galston (2007), who argues that campaign finance reforms were offset by politicians who form well funded finance vehicles and following the 2006 reassertion of Buckley v. Valeo, offset by increases in millionaire politicians and entrenched incumbents. While offsetting behavior in the above cases has negative effects, it could also cause unexpected positive effects. Yun (2002) is a case in point. Yun points out that oints out that regulatory effects to improve fuel standards through Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) effectively lower the weights of cars, which should have a detrimental effect on vehicle safety. Yet, the effect of CAFE is to reduce death rates by 6%, which Yun attributes to less risky driving by drivers in lighter cars, who recognize the greater vulnerability of their cars to accidents. Other studies, while not couched in the language of Peltzman’s offsetting behavior hypothesis, give similar insights. Multi-task agency models studied by Holmstrom and Milgrom (1991) and Holmstrom and Milgrom (1994). These studies point out that mandating measurable standardized testing for children could result in offsetting behavior. More time could be spent on education outcomes that are measurable, which could compromise unmeasured dimensions of learning such as creativity. Perry and Zenner (2000) discuss offsets of the 162(m) salary cap. Restrictions on taxdeductibility of salaries are offset by firms by increasing incentive grants through means such as options, in the spirit of the introductory quote by the CALPERS counsel. In a Coasian setting, Hermalin and Weisbach (2007) make a similar point about imposing governance reforms through external fiat. Like the examples cited above, we too focus on potentially well-meaning reforms or regulations and the difficulties created by offsetting behavioral responses. The empirical setting, the alteration in the structure of equity incentive contracts, is new. 4 This is essentially the observation that people prefer their hamburgers rare and are more likely to eat them rare when meat safety standards are perceived to be more strict. 8 Our setting also has desirable empirical features. We can observe individual-level data on offsetting behavior, estimate its costs with standard and well accepted valuation methods from finance, and we can sign the costs net of offsetting behavior. The specific estimates of offsetting behavior costs are also interesting: in our refresher grant sample, the costs of refreshers exceed those of the repricing contracts they substitute for. Prior work in economics reports effects of varying degrees of significance, ranging fom mixed to weak evidence on taxes (Feldstein (1995), Goolsbee (2002)) to strong impact of offsetting behavior in the hiring of the disabled following the 1986 Americans with Disabilities Act ((Acemoglu and Angrist (2001)). Our evidence is also relevant to the compensation literature. A prominent stream of compensation research that has garnered much publicity is the apparent compensation excesses since the 1990s. Empirical evidence of compensation growth and its causal roots in options is provided by Murphy (2002), who shows that over the 1990s, median CEO pay for S&P 500 industrial firms increases from $2.3 million to $6.5 million, driven by stock options, which increase from 25% of pay to 51% of pay. Explanations for the growth vary from the benign to the malevolent. Options growth could reflect belated recognition by shareholders that incentives were historically deficient, as famously pointed out by Jensen and Murphy (1990). Compensation increases could also reflect managerial expropriation of shareholder wealth, termed as “pay without performance” (Bebchuk and Fried (2004)), although this view is not without its skeptics (Murphy and Zabojnik (2004)). Alternatively, Murphy (2002) and Jensen, Murphy, and Wruck (2004) suggest that compensation growth simply reflects a consistent underestimation of option costs by boards and compensation committees. While the literature continues to debate the source and extent of compensation excesses, a widespread perception that compensation growth has been excessive has resulted in efforts to contain compensation costs by institutions. Our work has implications for these efforts. We point out the types of reform measures that are less likely to be successful and the approaches that could be more fruitful in containing compensation growth. 9 There is now considerable work on option repricing (e.g., Brenner, Sundaram, and Yermack (2000), Carter and Lynch (2001), Chance, Kumar, and Todd (2000) and Chidambaran and Prabhala (2003), Chen (2004)). Repricing has two interpretations. One school of thought holds that it is expropriation of shareholder wealth by managers. A countervailing view is that repricing reinvigorates option incentives or helps employee morale or retention. Our study is not about why firms reprice and our results have implications for both schools of thought. If repricing is viewed as a beneficial mechanism, our results say that shutting it down pushes firms to substitutes that may end up being costlier to shareholders compared to repricing. If, on the other hand, repricing is viewed as expropriation, our results say that stopping one form of expropriation – repricing – simply pushes managers to search for another, and the latter could turn out to be costlier. The broader point, of course, is that merely constraining one form of compensation flows is not enough. Rather, it is necessary to examine the totality of all flows and consider constraining the entire package if the aim is to contain compensation. As we discuss later, a similar viewpoint applies even with alternative objective functions such as the disclosure of pay packages. Our evidence also adds to the theoretical work by Hall and Murphy (2000), Meulbroek (2001), and Ingersoll (2006), who model the difference between the cost of equity incentives to firms and its value to the receiving employee. These models emphasize a wedge due to the risk-aversion and under-diversification while Bergman and Jenter (2005) suggest behavioral origins of the wedge, perhaps due to excessive extrapolation by employees (Benartzi (2001)). More recently, Chidambaran (2008) shows that even in executive stock option repricings, non-executive employees receive 72% of repriced options. Thus, the primary targets of repricing flows are non-executive employees, making their employee valuation functions a relevant framework for understanding refresher grants vis-a-vis repricing. To this literature, we introduce some of the first empirical evidence on the employee-firm valuation wedge. Our refresher grant evidence tests the necessary implication of such models, viz., that the wedge exists and 10 it widens as options go out of the money. In addition, the Appendix to this paper provides separate evidence of the wedge from the Microsoft (2003) options exchange. Finally, our findings are relevant to a broader debate on governance failures and reforms in the wake of scandals such as Enron and WorldCom. One question in this literature is how governance changes should be implemented. In particular, a question is whether mandating change through a one-size-fits-all fiat is effective. Romano (2005) expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of such an approach. There is also mounting evidence that governance is an endogenously determined choice of firms (e.g. Demsetz and Lehn (1985), Himmelberg, Hubbard, and Palia (1999), Hermalin and Weisbach (2007)). If so, mandating reforms by fiat could yield rather diluted results relative to those in a world where governance environments are exogenously determined. Our evidence is consistent with this view. 3 Out-of-Cyle Refresher Grant Sample In principle, firms whose options go underwater could make refresher option grants either by adding them to the normal annual options grant or by making a supplementary “out of cycle” grant on a different date. Refresher grants made as part of the annual grant are empirically difficult to work with because the refresher grant is co-mingled with the normal annual grant and the two are reported as a package. Disentangling the portion that represents a refresher grant requires a model of the expected annual option grant, for which there is no standard specification. Indeed, it is likely that option granting practices are perhaps non-stationary over the 1990s (Bebchuk and Grinstein (2005)). With all these difficulties, it is hard to extract estimates of underwater option offsets that are embedded within annual in-cycle grants. While we do consider the aggregated effects in later tests, the most interesting estimates come from out of cycle refresher grants because these are relatively precise individual-level estimates of the costs of offsetting behavior. Moreover, the costs are 11 of independent interest to the compensation literature as they represent evidence of a wedge between employee and firm valuation of equity incentves. Working with out of cycle refresher grants offers other empirical advantages. One is that the grant dates for out of cycle grants are different from the date of the normal annual grant, so a set of candidate transactions are easier to identify in EXECUCOMP. Because the date of these grants is known, it is quite straightforward to infer the magnitude and sign of the returns prior to the out of cycle grants. Thus, we can readily rule out refresher grants that clearly do not respond to stock price declines. Finally, out of cycle grants tend to be standalone. In particular, there are no other accompanying compensation adjustments on the grant date, a fact that we can (and do) verify in the data. 3.1 Identifying Firms That Make Refresher Grants To focus our attention on the changes around the 1998 regime change and to avoid the effects related to the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act, we analyze samples of firms making refresher grants prior to fiscal 2002. Our initial screen yields a candidate pool of 151 firms that make refresher grants. From this initial set, we read proxies and 10-K’s and screen out cases with idiosyncratic causal factors for a second grant such as merger or restructuring, reloads, or formula-based accelerated grants. For instance, Campbell Soup appears to make multiple grants in fiscal 2002 but two of the grants reported in ExecuComp appear to relate to a prior year. In fiscal 1998, Nova Corporation appears to make multiple grants, but these grants are caused by a takeover of a firm (PMT) that became a fully owned subsidiary. Timken Corporation makes multiple grants in 1998, but the later grant was given in lieu of a cash bonus awarded for superior performance.5 We describe the process used to construct our sample below. To identify out of cycle grants, we begin our sample with the 2003 release of Standard & Poor’s ExecuComp database. Data is presented on a grant-level observation 5 A full list of the firms excluded is available from the authors. 12 basis. In other words, if an executive receives an option or stock grant in a given year, each individual grant is treated as an observation. If an executive receives no stock or option grants in a given year (but some form of compensation), then for that year there will only be one observation for that executive. The initial data set has 152,159 observations. However, not all the data is relevant and/or reliable for the purposes of understanding an executive’s outstanding options portfolio. We therefore apply a series of filters to screen for errors and implement a procedure similar to Hall and Knox (2004) to determine an executive’s portfolio of outstanding options and the degree of moneyness of the portfolio. Table 1 gives a summary explanation of the data and the result of using our filters to screen for errors in the options grant data. 3.2 Identifying Underwater Option Related Grants ExecuComp reports the number of options, exercise price, and expiration date for an individual grant. Unfortunately, the date on which the option is granted is not reported. We use the following algorithm to determine the option grant date. We assume that the option is granted on the month and day listed for the expiration date. The year is determined by the grant fiscal year and the fiscal year end month of the firm. For example, for an option granted in fiscal year 1999 with an expiration date of June 30, 2006, the grant date is recorded as June 30, 1999. Additionally, the number of an executive’s in-the-money and out-of-the-money options and number of exercised options are available on an annual basis. We observe instances of an executive receiving separately listed grants that have the same strike price and expiration date. We assume that these are not cases of multiple grants and aggregate these grants into one grant. This reduces the number of observations by 4,989 to 147,170. We next adjust the terms of the outstanding options for stock splits subsequent to the grant date. The executive’s outstanding options portfolio on any given date consists of options that were perhaps granted some years previously and there could be intervening stock splits that alter the terms of the outstanding options similar to the adjustments made for regular exchange traded options. The number of stock 13 options is increased by the split factor and the strike price is decreased by the split factor. Using data on stock distributions from CRSP, we calculate a cumulative adjustment factor for all instances of stock splits between the original grant date and the current grant date. For some firms, this split-adjustment factor is missing, which reduces our sample by 78 observations. An additional related complication is that data reported in ExecuComp are split-adjusted for all splits between the grant date and fiscal year-end. Since we need to construct portfolios at each option grant date, we separately require split-adjustment factors for splits between the grant date and the end of the fiscal year in order to reverse-adjust the strike prices and number of options to determine the terms on the grant date. We eliminate all option grants with strike prices less than $1.00. These grants appear to be “founder’s” grants that are awarded to the founders/entrepreneurs of the firm and are not part of the regular option incentive plans. This reduces our sample by 1,325 observations. Some firms allow their executives to replenish options that they exercise. The reload feature triggers automatic grants of options and does not represent extra grants awarded by firms to compensate for underwater options, as discussed in Dybvig and Loewenstein (2003). Multiple option grants may simply reflect the exercise of reload options. For example, in one instance two executives receive 38 reload option grants in one year. We therefore exclude reload options from our sample. The compound option feature in reloads and variations in how they are exercised makes it infeasible to construct the portfolios outstanding for each executives without additional (unverifiable) assumptions. Accordingly, we eliminate all current and future years of observations at the firm level. This reduces our sample by 11,053 observations. We also account for instances of a firm granting and listing option grants in stock of a subsidiary and for instances when the firm retains an executive’s old options in a target company that was acquired. For example, both Brian Roberts and Julian Brodsky of Comcast Corporation received grants with strike prices of $1,216 and $1,374 in 2001. In the same year, they also received option grants with strike prices of $36.97. The footnotes in Comcast’s proxy statement disclose that the $1,216 and 14 $1,374 grants were for stock in QVC, a majority-owned subsidiary of Comcast. The variation in strike prices might produce false impressions that the option grants are related to underwater options. In all such instances where the stock underlying the option is not the firm’s traded stock, the strike price will significantly differ from the firm’s stock price. We filter out these cases by dropping any observations where the strike price does not fall within a range that is determined by the minimum and maximum stock price over a period of one month surrounding the grant date. Split-adjusted stock prices are calculated from CRSP. Requiring that the strike price fall between a lower and upper bound also filters out errors that arise from erroneous estimation of option grant dates. EXECUCOMP reports option expiries. The standard method for estimating grant dates in the literature is to assume that the option maturity is an integer (whole) number of years, so the grant date can be readily inferred from the option expiry date. It is plausible however, that the options are granted with a non-integer number of years, e.g., nine and a half years, to maturity. In such cases, the stock price on the estimated grant date will not be the true price on the date of the grant. Since options are often issued at-the-money, requiring that the strike price be bounded by stock prices in the month surrounding the estimated grant date helps to screen out grants where our estimate of the grant date is incorrect. This bounded stock price filter reduces the data set by 31,585 observations. Finally, we eliminate all option grants where the strike price is not equal to the market price on the grant date. Some firms use “tiered” option grants, whereby executives are given different grants on the same day with different exercise prices. These instances of multiple grants do not represent grants in response to options going underwater and we eliminate these. This step is also necessary because such errors will have dynamic feed-forward impacts on the future construction of portfolios of options. The requirement that strike price be equal to market price reduces the sample by 2,955 observations. 15 We then narrow the focus to refresher grants that address underwater options by restricting our attention to a subsample with price drops. We extract a subsample in which firms make a regular annual grant, then experience price declines that push the first grant out-of-the-money, and who then make a second grant within the same fiscal year. To ensure that options being refreshed are sufficiently underwater, we require that price drops between the first and second grants be at least -20%. We also require that at least two executives receive the second refresher grant. This eliminates one-off transactions idiosyncratic to particular employees. The initial filters result in 100,175 executive-year observations of separate and distinct option grants. We screen these for out of cycle refresher grants related to underwater options, our final sample consists of 135 refresher grants that include 590 executive-years. Table 2 and Figure 2 illustrate the time trend in the sample. Our algorithm appears to work well at identifying plausible substitutes for repricing. The out of cycle refresher grants identified in our study are relatively muted before 1998 but rise sharply after 1998 after the demise of repricing. 4 The Costs of Offsetting Behavior: Refresher Grants Estimating the costs of the offsetting behavior raises two empirical issues. One is to estimate the costs of the new refresher grants. A second issue is to identify the portfolio of underwater options being refreshed and its characteristics such as moneyness and maturity. Sections 4.1 and 4.2 discuss our approach towards dealing with these questions. Sections 4.3 presents evidence on the costs of offsetting behavior. 4.1 Refresher Grant Costs Estimating the costs of refresher grants requires information on the terms of options involved, the risk-free rate, and volatility. Option terms such as the old and new strikes and maturity, as well as the number of options granted, come from grant 16 tables reported in ExecuComp. The interest rate is the 10-year risk-free treasury rate (Release H.15 from the Federal Reserve) as of the date of the option grant. We estimate volatility as the historical standard deviation of daily returns estimated over 120 days prior to the beginning of the fiscal year of the refresher grant. We choose a period prior to the fiscal year to avoid a look-ahead bias in volatility. Because we require that the refresher grant is preceded by a 20% drop in prices between grant date and the prior grant date, using the data after the first grant date would effectively pick periods of high volatility. The total cost of the refresher grant for each executive is the Black-Scholes value per option times the number of refresher options granted. To estimate the costs that would be incurred had firm repriced instead, we must infer what underwater options portfolio is refreshed by the new grant. The most obvious candidate is the prior grant in the same fiscal year, year [0]. By construction, this grant in the same year is out-of-the-money by at least 20% as of the refresher grant date. However, other underwater options granted in prior years could also be outstanding and lose moneyness as a result of the 20% price drop. We make the assumption that an out of the cycle grant refreshes not just the same year grants but also all prior grants outstanding that are underwater. This is a conservative assumption that maximizes the number of underwater options being refreshed and thus sets a lower bound on the costs of refresher grants relative to repricing. We next discuss the identification of the underwater options portfolio from EXECUCOMP. 4.2 Identifying Underwater Option Portfolio Being Refreshed To estimate the underwater options portfolio being refreshed, we need to infer the characteristics of the options portfolio held by executives as of the date of the out of cycle refresher grant. To this end, we build data on the strike prices and maturity of option portfolios held by executives on a case-by-case basis using the history of grants data, on the lines of Hall and Knox (2004). 17 4.2.1 The First Series of Option Grants We begin with the first year in which ExecuComp reports data for an executive. Since a firm’s disclosure of option grants to executives as reported by ExecuComp does not start from the first date on which a firm granted options, it is possible that an executive has outstanding options at the beginning of the the first year in which the executive enters the database. Following Hall and Knox (2004), an executive’s initial portfolio is equal to the the number of options outstanding at the end of the fiscal year minus option grants in the current year plus any options exercised by the executive. The result is equal to the number of initial options the executive held at the beginning of the year. That is: InitialOptions = Outstanding options at f irst year f iscal year − end − Options grants in f irst year + Options exercised in f irst year (1) As in Hall and Knox, we treat the initial options oustanding as one block with seven years to maturity. If the executive receives grants in the first year, we set the exercise price on the initial options to be equal to the market price a year before the first grant date. If the executive does not receive an option grant in the first year - i.e. the executive only has data reported for outstanding options and option exercises we assume an exercise price equal to the stock price midway through the prior fiscal year. If there is no CRSP price, we use the stock price at the end of the fiscal year. 4.2.2 Accounting For Repricing Some options reported in EXECUCOMP could be repriced during a year. EXECUCOMP identifies the executives repriced but does not report the number of options repriced nor the alterations in the option terms due to repricing. Additionally, firms vary in how they report repricings, as noted by Chidambaran and Prabhala (2003). We use the following algorithm to update the options portfolios for repricings. 18 Repricing is frequently accounted as a cancelation of old options outstanding and regrant of new options. Many firms include the number of repriced options as part of the option grants reported for the fiscal year. These firms will also correspondingly increase the number of canceled options, but this data is not available in EXECUCOMP. Using grants alone to compute the number of outstanding options without adjusting for canceled options will overestimate the total number of outstanding options in these cases. We use this fact to estimate the number of repriced options. For each fiscal year, we first calculate the expected number of outstanding options at of the end of the fiscal year. The difference between the number of expected options outstanding at the end of the fiscal year and the actual number reported is set equal to the number of options repriced for the repriced executives. The expected number of fiscal year-end outstanding options is set equal to the options outstanding at the beginning of the fiscal year plus any options granted in the year and minus any options exercised. That is: Expected[Options Outstanding at F iscal Y ear End] = Options outstanding at f iscal year beginning (2) + Options grants in f iscal year − Options exercised inf iscal year For the repriced executive, Number of Options Repriced = Expected [Options Outstanding at Fiscal Year-end] - Reported Number of Options Outstanding at Fiscal Year-end. Because the current fiscal year grants already reflect the new terms of the option terms, what remains is for us to cancel the old options that have been replaced. Starting from the option grants that have the shortest maturity and are farthest outof-the-money, we reduce the number of outstanding options by an amount equal to the number of repriced options. For firms that do not include the repriced options in reporting option grants for the year, we use an alternate methodology to update the strike price and maturity of the outstanding options to reflect repricing. In these cases, we reset the exercise price and maturity on all outstanding options that are out-of-the-money. We reset 19 the strike prices to be equal to the stock price on the date of the first option grant in the fiscal year and reset the option maturities to 10 years. The estimated expected number of outstanding options also allows us to run a data integrity check. Since there is a lag between the end of the fiscal year and the reporting date, firms sometimes include options transactions from outside the fiscal year period in reporting the options outstanding for the year. Following Hall and Knox (2004) we treat these as errors in reporting and not as instances of unreliable data. If this number of expected options outstanding at the end of the fiscal year is greater than the number reported, then we treat the differences as an error in the reported number of exercised options and augment the reported number to determine the actual number of options exercised in the fiscal year. If this number of expected options outstanding at the end of the fiscal year is less than the reported number of outstanding options, we treat the differences as an error in the number of option grants reported and we augment the number of option grants in the executive’s first option grant in the fiscal year. 4.2.3 Accounting for Options Exercise Once we have established initial conditions, accounted for stock splits and repricing, and checked for data consistency in the grants and options data, we have complete details on all option grants that an executive has received up to a particular grant date and through the end of the fiscal year. For each fiscal year, we next have to adjust the options outstanding for option exercises. We assume that when an executive exercises options, she first exercises the shortest maturity in-the-money options, progressively stepping down the list of option grants till all the exercised options are accounted for. Between option grants with the same maturity, we assume that she exercises those that are deepest in-the-money. This process is repeated each year going forward through the final year for which we have data on the executive. At the end of the exercise, we have a complete picture detailing which of the option grants are outstanding at any point in time within the data period. Collating the 20 data gives us the portfolio of outstanding options and the strike price and maturity of each outstanding option. Underwater portfolios being refreshed consist of the prior grant in the same fiscal year [0] , grants in year [-1], and very rarely prior options grants. We scale up the individual executive level estimates in the refresher grant year to firm-wide estimates using data on total options granted by the firm. These are either extracted from 10-K statements reporting the stock and flow of options or based on the g/p statistic derived from proxy statements as outlined in Section 3. 4.3 Costs of Refresher Grants Compared to Repricing Table 3 reports estimates of the cost of refresher grants and the costs of a hypothetical repricing had the refresher granting firm chosen to reprice. Column 1 reports the data on a per executive basis, Column 2 adds costs for all executives in a firm and presents the mean and median on a per firm basis for all executives. Finally, column 3 reports data on a firm-wide basis for executives and non-executive employees. We present data on both medians (upper row) and means (lower row) given the skewness of compensation data. The first row of Table 3 indicates that our refresher grant sample comprises 590 executives at 135 firms. Thus, about 4 listed executives per firm receive refresher grants. Our screens appear to do a reasonable job in identifying economically meaningful refresher grant transactions that respond to firm-wide price shocks. Row 2 presents the total costs of refresher grants. The median (mean) Black-Scholes costs of the refresher grants for all executives is $1.5 million ($3.7 million) and for all employees is $8.1 million ($49.7 million). We next turn to estimating the costs of a hypothetical repricing in which the firms granting refresher grants simply reset the strike price of the outstanding out-ofthe-money options. The median (mean) Black-Scholes value of underwater options equals $10.2 million ($99.3 mm). If firms had repriced these options, the new options 21 would have median (mean) Black-Scholes value of $12.7 million ($117.0 million). The median (mean) repricing costs equal $2.3 million ($ 17.7 million). Finally, we estimate the difference between the costs of refresher grants and the costs of the hypothetical repricing. As shown in the last row in Table 3, firms incur excess costs when using refresher grants in lieu of repricing. The median (mean) excess costs of refresher grants over repricing amount to $0.93 ($2.45) million for executive officers, and $4.2 ($32.0) million at the level of the firm including executives and nonexecutive employees. The skewness in the estimates, which is reflected in the spread between medians and means, is quite typical of compensation data. In our sample, it appears to mainly reflect the presence of some heavy users of options, particularly in the technology sector. The cost difference suggests that firms bear deadweight costs when offsetting the restrictions on repricing by using refresher grants. 5 Offsetting Behavior in All Underwater Firms The previous section focuses on firms that choose to make refresher grants after significant price declines make options go underwater, the condition that triggers repricing. However, there could also be firms who face underwater options but choose not to make refresher grants. We consider the universe of all underwater firms next, to understand offsetting behavior in the aggregate rather than just for firms who make out of cycle refresher grants. Some firms that faced underwater options after 1998 may have responded by electing to forgo all repricing substitutes. Other underwater firms may have conveyed substitute compensation in ways not visible to the empirical researcher. For instance, substitute grants could be given as in-cycle grants bundled within the normal annual compensation package and result in a partial to total offset depending on the extent of the compensation substitution. Offsetting behavior (or the lack of it) can be detected by examining the total compensation at underwater firms relative to predicted 22 compensation levels at such firms. We describe these tests and the empirical results next. 5.1 Total Compensation If there is no offsetting response among “underwater” firms, the testable proposition is that the compensation for “underwater” firms should decline measurably after 1998 relative to predicted values based on pre-1998 data. We implement this test by subtracting from the top executive compensation, EXECUCOMP variable TDC1 for underwater firms the level of expected compensation and examine if the difference declines significantly after 1998. For this test, the sample of underwater firms is constructed by sampling EXECUCOMP firms for whom a significant number of options went underwater in a fiscal year: we require that the portfolio of executive options are at least 25% out of the money.6 We test the null hypothesis that the abnormal compensation adjustment in these “underwater” firms equals zero against the alternative that it is negative. Table 4 presents the raw sample statistics, the median and mean total compensation TDC1 by year for firms with substantial underwater options (Panel A) and for the refresher grants sample (Panels B and C). As seen in the table, the annual compensation increases – even at firms with substantial underwater options, whose stock has performed poorly. This reflects secular trends in the overall EXECUCOMP sample (e.g., Bebchuk and Grinstein (2005), perhaps in response to labor market pressures that increase CEO pay. Panels B and C deal with firms that make out of cycle refresher grants. Excluding refresher grants (Panel B), compensation in these firm-years is not different from the Panel A data for all underwater firms. However, Panel C shows that when we include the refresher grants (Panel C), compensation is substantially higher than for all firms with underwater options. 6 For robustness, we have also considered other cutoffs, e.g. the portfolio of executive options are at least 15% and 20% out of the money. We get similar results. 23 5.2 Abnormal Total Compensation We analyze abnormal compensation changes after 1998 using a difference in difference approach. To estimate abnormal compensation, we specify a model for expected compensation using variables suggested in prior research. The baseline estimates are based on the specification suggested in recent work by Bebchuk and Grinstein (2005) but other specifications such as the one in Himmelberg, Hubbard, and Palia (1999) gives similar results. We estimate the model using pre-1998 data to keep the data free of look-ahead bias. We then compute excess compensation for underwater firms as the difference of actual over model-predicted compensation, and test whether this declines significantly after 1998 for underwater firms. The dependent variable in our primary specification is the industry-adjusted logarithm of total CEO compensation (LTDC1), which is the difference between the logarithm of total compensation the CEO receives in a fiscal year (TDC1) and the average of the logarithm of total CEO compensation for all firms in the Fama-French 48-industry sector. We prefer this specification of the LHS variable because it filters out dynamic labor market induced variation at the level of the industry-year. We can add time-invariant firm or industry effects plus year effects, or use these alone, effectively specifying more macro controls. Using these as substitutes or in addition has little effect, suggesting that using industry-adjusted compensation each year does a good job of picking up trends. In the specification analyzed here, we regress year t LTDC1 on known firm characteristics. These include firm size as measured by sales, operating performance measured as the logarithm of (1 + the return on assets), stock market performance as measured by the log of (1 + the stock return) for prior fiscal year and the prior two fiscal years. These are the primary explanatory variables included in most studies. For robustness we also consider other variables that are less frequently included in compensation studies such as volatility, sales growth, R&D expenditures, leverage, and the number of employees. These have little effect on the results. 24 Table 5 reports estimates of a baseline regression of CEO compensation on explanatory variables for 1994-1998. Industry-adjusted compensation is greater for large firms, growing firms, and firms with good stock return performance. The year fixed effects do not matter, suggesting that industry-adjusting compensation does a good job filtering out secular trends.7 We then assess whether compensation slows abnormally after 1998. An empirical question is how long the post-1998 period should cover. There are the usual tradeoffs. Longer windows well after 1998 bring in more data. However, as the window lengthens, there are other confounding effects. One year after 1998 is the minimum while three years seems to be a reasonable upper bound, given the Internet bubble crash, the Sarbanes Oxley Act, and the promulgation of Fin 44 standards after 2001. We report the broader encompassing results. We use the coefficients estimates in Table 5 to generate the expected out of sample compensation for each firm-year. The excess compensation is the actual (industryadjusted) compensation minus the prediction based on coefficients estimated from the 1994-1998 data. We regress the excess compensation on the underwater dummy variable. If the 1998 repricing regulations were successful, the coefficient for “underwater” should be significant and negative. Table 6 reports the results. The coefficient for UNDERWATER is insignificant. Following the strategy of Bebchuk and Grinstein (2005), Table 7 reports results similar to those in Table 5 but for all top 5 executives of the firm. The results are similar: the coefficient for UNDERWATER are insignificant. There is little evidence that the 1998 repricing restrictions slowed compensation growth in underwater firms. We also experimented with raw compensation levels and year fixed effects rather than the industry-adjusted compensation, our preferred specification. The results are again similar. It is possible that the regressions in Tables 5 and 6 lack power. However, observe that the regression in Table 5 includes the variable REFRESHER, which is a 0/1 7 At first glance, the insignificance of year dummies may be surprising. However, when we run tests using unadjusted CEO TDC1, the year dummies do have the familiar positive sign and are significant. Even in these models, the results are similar: underwater firms do not have unusually negative compensation growth after 1998. 25 dummy variable for whether a firm makes an out of cycle refresher grant. If our hypothesis that refresher grants entail excess costs is correct, REFRESHER should be significant even after adjusting for other determinants of compensation. This is indeed what we find in the regression data. In terms of raw numbers, the mean and median CEO compensation for underwater firms in general are $2.9 million and $1.7 million, respectively. These are significantly lower than the numbers for refresher grant firms, which are $5.9 million and $3.8 million, respectively. Taking out REFRESHER from the Table 5/6 specifications makes little difference to the results. Compensation growth does not slow at underwater firms after 1998. 5.3 Summary Broadly speaking, we have two major results. One, we find no evidence that total compensation slowed at underwater firms after the 1998 demise of repricing. The result suggests that firms offset the restrictions on repricing due to punitive disclosure requirements by shifting from repricing to other forms of compensation as a tool to respond to underwater options. Two, in the sample of firms making out of cycle refresher grants, we find that there is more than complete offset: refresher grants are reliably more expensive than the repricing. The excess costs of refresher grants represent a curious result that demand economic explanation. If the shift from repricing to a contracting substitute were a neutral mutation, the net costs of moving to the contractual substitute for repricing should be zero. We next consider why firms making refresher grants might rationally incur these excess compensation costs. We consider several explanations but in the end lean towards an explanation based on a wedge between how employees and firms value equity based incentives. We begin by characterizing the employee-firm wedge and show how it predicts excess compensation costs. We consider the other explanations in subsequent sections and discuss why they seem to be implausible. 26 6 Explaining The Excess Costs of Refresher Grants In this section, we examine why firms might rationally incur excess costs when they switch from repricing to refresher grants. Section 6.1 shows how differences between employee and firm valuation of incentive contracts can explain the costs. Section 6.2 considers consistency of the wedge with received quantitative subjective valuation models. Section 6.3 analyzes other hypotheses to explain the excess costs. While some explanations are possible in a purely hypothetical sense, they are theoretically or empirically unsupported or they do not explain key features of the data. 6.1 Wedge Between Employee and Firm Valuation Functions: Theoretical Analysis This section shows that refresher grants entail deadweight excess costs when employees and firms value options differently and the wedge between the two valuation functions widens when options go out-of-the-money. Let V (S, X) denote firms’ costs of granting options of strike X when stock price is S and let U (S, X) be its subjective value to employees. For economy of notation, we suppress the other determinants of option cost to firms or value to employees. Consider a firm that reprices an option that has strike X1 to strike X2 < X1 ). If we assume options are granted at-the-money, X2 = S, the stock price on the repricing date. Let the cost of repricing to firm be ∆VRP , so that ∆VRP = V (S, S) − V (S, X1 ) (3) The value of the repricing as perceived by the employee is based on the employee’s valuation function, which is ∆URP = U (S, S) − U (S, X1 ) 27 (4) In designing a refresher grant in lieu of repricing, we need to specify the sense in which a refresher grant is “equivalent” to repricing. We make the simple assumption that the refresher grant is designed to convey the same subjective value as a repricing would convey to an employee. This assumption simplifies exposition but it is worth emphasizing that it is not critical. We could, for instance, equate the incentive deltas instead of both alternatives. We could also consider refresher grants that are designed to convey the equivalent of repricing plus more compensation or incentives. In that case, we simply interpret our analysis as applying to the portion of the refresher grant intended to substitute for repricing. These other assumptions complicate the notation but deliver the same substantial results. Thus, we consider a refresher grant that is designed to convey the same value as that conveyed in a repricing, viz. ∆URP . In the baseline case, suppose that employees and firms have similar valuation functions so that U ≡ V . In this case, the number of options that the firm grants via a refresher grant, nU ≡V solves ∆URP = ∆VRP = V (S, S) − V (S, X1 ) = nU ≡V V (S, S) (5) or nU ≡V = V (S, S) − V (S, X1 ) V (S, S) (6) Now consider the case when the employee and valuation functions differ, so that U 6= V . In this case, the firm making a refresher grant must grant a number of options nU 6=V that solves ∆URP = ∆URP = U (S, S) − U (S, X1 ) = nU 6=V U (S, S) (7) which gives nU 6=V = U (S, S) − U (S, X1 ) U (S, S) 28 (8) From Eqs. (5) and (8), it follows that nU 6=V U (S, S) − U (S, X1 ) V (S, S) − V (S, X1 ) ≥1⇔ ≥ nU ≡V U (S, S) V (S, S) (9) More compactly, we can rewrite this as the simple elasticity condition nU 6=V ≥ 1 ⇔ ηU,V > 1 nU ≡V (10) The intuition underlying Eqs. (9) and (10) is straightforward. The denominator in both equations is nU ≡V , or the number of options that the firm must give if it uses a refresher grant in lieu of repricing and the firm and employee valuations are identical. The numerator in either case is the number of options that the firm must give if the valuation functions are not identical. Eq. (9) says that firms must give more options than they would with identical employee and firm valuation functions if employee valuations fall faster than firm valuations as options go out-of-the-money. Eq. (10) restates this result in familiar elasticity terms. In dollar terms, the excess cost of making refresher grants in lieu of repricing equals the number of options granted in the refresher minus the number that would have been granted had the valuation functions been identical, multiplied by the cost per option to the firm. Equivalently, Cexcess = (nU 6=V − nU ≡V )V (S, S) = nU ≡V V (S, S)(ηU,V − 1) (11) Thus, excess costs are positive, i.e., refresher grants are more costly, when the elasticity of employee valuation with respect to firms’ valuations ηU,V exceeds one. Equivalently, excess costs arise when employees valuations fall faster than firms’ valuations when options go out-of-the-money. If the two valuation functions are similar, ηU,V ≡ 1 and excess costs equal zero. In this scenario, refresher grants cost the same as repricings. In the unlikely scenario in which firms’ valuation functions fall faster, ηU,V < 1 and excess costs would be negative, i.e., refresher grants would be cheaper. 29 Eqs (10) and (11) suggest a straightforward interpretation for why refresher grants have proved to be empirically costlier than repricings: employee valuation functions taper off much faster than firms’ own valuations of options when options go underwater. Thus, any contractual arrangement that leaves old underwater options outstanding – such as refresher grants – will be more costly than strategies – such as repricing – that take out the underwater options. 6.2 Consistency With Subjective Valuation Models In this section, we discuss how a widening wedge between employee and firm valuation functions when options go underwater is consistent with subjective valuation models (Hall and Murphy (2000), Meulbroek (2001), and Ingersoll (2006)). A numerical example illustrates the basic point. Consider an option on a nondividend paying stock initially granted at a strike price of $100. We assume that the remaining maturity of the option is 8 years, which corresponds to the stage at which a typical repricing occurs. Assume that the total volatility of the stock is 40% and a risk-free rate of 5%. It is straightforward to compute the Black-Scholes cost of the option for different strike prices. To compute the subjective value, we could use one of several models. We use the Ingersoll (2006) model here because of the computational ease with which it implements the valuation of both European and American employee stock options. Other models also lead to similar conclusions. In Ingersoll’s framework, the subjective discount depends on the employee’s relative risk aversion, the extent to which the employee’s wealth (human capital plus any explicit shareholdings) is tied with the option granting firm, and the idiosyncratic risk of the stock. Let the relative risk aversion coefficient be 4, let 25% of the wealth be tied to the option issuer’s stock, and let the idiosyncratic risk be 90% of the total risk of the stock.8 With these parameters, we can show that the subjective value declines 8 Firms in our sample tend to have high idiosyncratic volatility, with the median residual variance in market model regressions of the order of 90%. This is not surprising given that repricers are drawn from industries with high idiosyncratic volatility (Chidambaran and Prabhala (2003)). 30 by 69% for a 40% out-of-the-money option, while the Black-Scholes value declines by 36%. Thus, employees value options at greater discounts to the Black-Scholes value as options go out of the money. The estimates in Table 3 are consistent with employees having a relative risk aversion (RRA) of 4 (RRA = 1- γ) and having substantial amount of wealth tied to the firm. It is worth pointing out that our evidence is also consistent with a class of behavioral models of valuation. For instance, employee valuations could be initially optimistic about firm prospects when they receive options (Bergman and Jenter (forthcoming)). However, the employees could turn pessimistic when stock prices drop and options go underwater. Such behavior would be consistent with the excessive extrapolation hypothesis of Benartzi (2001), where employees overweight recent data as predictors of the future. Such fluctuations in sentiment resulting from excessive extrapolation could drive time variation in the employee valuation functions in the manner specified by Eq. (11). Our results are also consistent with such behavioral origins of the subjective discount.9 6.3 6.3.1 Alternative Explanations for Excess Costs The Black-Scholes Model Must Be Modified The Black-Scholes model is widely used to measure option costs for firms. For instance, the EXECUCOMP database routinely reports Black-Scholes estimates. The model is well understood, relatively simple to implement, and involves few assumptions other than the stock return volatility, so it is used by the overwhelming majority of papers in the compensation literature. There are two major issues with using the Black-Scholes model for valuing employee stock options: vesting and early exercise of options. The vesting issue is that employees have rights to exercise an option only if they are still employed at the vesting date. If they leave the firm before the option vests, the option is forfeited. 9 We thank (without implicating) Dirk Jenter for suggesting this explanation. 31 Incorporating vesting has little effect on the finding that refresher grants are costlier, and the intuition is not hard to see. Vesting restarts characterize both repricings (following Section 2) and refresher grants (new grants come with fresh vesting schedules), so incorporating these should not impact the rank ordering between the two alternatives. Refresher grants continue to be more costly than repricings. 10 The early exercise issue is less straightforward but yields interesting insights in its own right. One ad-hoc method of accounting for early exercise is to use an effective maturity of (say) 5 years as option maturity instead of the actual maturity at grant. This ad-hoc adjustment clearly has no impact the finding that refresher grants are costlier because similar adjustments are made for both repricing and refresher grants. These results are likely to be conservative, given that the out-of-the-money options left outstanding under the refresher grant alternative are likely to have longer effective maturities given the lower likelihood of early exercise for these options, which must be incorporated to properly account for early exercise. The early exercise adjusted costs of refresher grants over repricing costs equals CRG,EE − CRP,EE = (CRG,BS − CRP,BS )κ(S, S) + V (S, S)[κ(S, X1 ) − κ(S, S)] (12) In Eq. (12), κ(S, X) denotes the adjustment required for early exercise for an option with strike X when the stock price is S. The LHS of Eq. (12) denotes the earlyexercise adjusted excess cost of refresher grants over repricing. The first term in the RHS is proportional to the unadjusted (Black-Scholes) excess costs, while the second term represents the difference in early exercise adjustment for out-of-the-money options relative to that for at-the-money options. Thus, adjusted costs of refresher grants over repricing will always be positive if out-of-the-money options require less adjustment for early exercise (i.e., κ is higher) than at-the-money options.11 This 10 Estimating a vesting-adjusted Black-Scholes model is not difficult but requires additional (unverifiable) assumptions about turnover and its functional dependence on stock returns (e.g., Cuny and Jorion (1995)). Incorporating these would make little qualitative difference to our analysis. 11 This is a sufficient condition. The necessary condition is weaker: refresher grants will still be more costly even if the early exercise adjustment for out-of-the-money options is greater (i.e., κ 32 condition is, in fact, a necessary implication of all received valuation models based on early exercise. Formal methods to handle early exercise include structural models based on utility maximization or reduced form models of exercise (e.g., Carpenter (1998), Heath, Huddart, and Lang (1999)). The intuition is best illustrated by following the approach of Ingersoll (2006), who obtains the early exercise boundary based on employees’ optimal exercise strategy, and computes firms’ costs based on the derived optimal exercise strategy for employees. This approach also leaves refresher grants as the costlier alternative. The key driver of the result is that out-of-the-money options are less likely to be exercised. Thus, the downward adjustment from Black-Scholes for early exercise is lesser in the refresher grant strategy, in which out of the money options remain outstanding. Under repricing, which cancels all the old underwater options, the downward adjustment in costs is greater because early exercise is more likely. In fact, we can even construct interesting examples where repricing represents a value gain to firms instead of being a cost. This happens because the gains from suboptimal early exercise of at-the-money ESOs more than offset the losses from lowering the strike price. In short, the misspecification of the Black-Scholes formula does not explain why refresher grants are empirically more costly than repricing. 6.3.2 Other Compensation Adjustments by Repricers or Refreshers One empirical issue is that there could be other elements of the compensation package accompanying refresher grants. Perhaps firms making refresher grants make adjustments to compensation that offset the incremental costs of refresher grants. Compensation adjustments associated with refresher grants would matter if we considered in-cycle refresher grants, which, by definition are accompanied by a host of other compensation transactions. However, our analysis focuses on out-of-cycle grants, is lower), provided it is not excessively so. Equivalently, the only circumstance in which refresher grants will not be costlier is when the adjustment in valuation for early exercise is far more than that needed for at-the-money options, a condition that is not likely to arise. 33 which are standalone transactions. Empirically, there are no other adjustments in compensation in our sample. Alternatively, perhaps firms that reprice provide additional compensation to their employees not provided by firms making refresher grants. Our results on excess costs of refresher grants could be rationalized if repricing firms were making unusual upward adjustments to compensation packages. The evidence in Chidambaran and Prabhala (2003) suggests otherwise. They examine compensation adjustments for a sample of repricers similar to ours (our repricing sample has 197 out of the 213 firms in their study). They find that repricers make adjustments that are lower than those of comparable peers. Thus, the existence of other compensation adjustments in repricers or refresher granting firms does not explain why refresher grants cost more. 6.3.3 Refresher Grants Made For Other Purposes Our analysis thus far is based on the premise that refresher grants are chosen by firms to deal with underwater options. Anecdotal evidence and prior literature on refresher grants supports the use of refresher grants for dealing with underwater options (e.g., Chen (2004), Hall and Knox (2004), Murphy (2003)). However, it is possible at least theoretically that the refresher grants are different, in the sense that they serve a different purpose compared to repricing. Purely hypothetically, the fact that refresher grants serve “some other” unspecified purpose is certainly a possibility. However, this explanation does not explain the key time series pattern picked up in our sample. Refresher grants increase right around the 1998 demise in repricing, which suggests that our sampling strategy does a good job of picking up refresher grants that substitute for repricing. A second point is related to our sampling strategy. We did find cases where refresher grants are not related to underwater options. However, as as explained in Section 3, we filter out such transactions by conditioning on options going underwater. We also read individual firm disclosure statements to screen out other idiosyncratic factors. Our sample firms have out-of-the-money options that are underwater by an average of about 40%. It is 34 in this specific sample that refresher grants are costlier than repricings. So while there could be refreshers made for purposes other than dealing with underwater options, these are filtered out of our sample. 6.3.4 Refresher Grants Convey Superior Benefits We also consider an alternate explanation that firms recognize that refresher grants are costlier but nevertheless give them because they expect to reap superior benefits not available via standard repricing. This argument as stated has no empirical content without specifying what these benefits are. Indeed, by this logic, any action by firms, however costly, could be justified by appealing to purely hypothetical unspecified benefits conveyed by the costlier alternative. In any event, the unspecified benefits story is also implausible for two other reasons. One is related to the types of portfolios that employees inherit under refresher grant regime, which is a mix of out-of-the money and at-the-money options. Repricing replaces this package with only at-the-money options. For refresher grants to have greater “benefits,” firms must find it beneficial to make employees hold out-ofthe-money options. We are unaware of any theoretical model that claims optimality of such a package. In any case, in practice, firms strive to avoid underwater options. From a behavioral perspective, having some underwater options is not viewed as being a useful motivational tool, especially because they create inequity between underwater option holders, new employees with only at-the-money options, and of course, executives who hold stock (Chidambaran and Prabhala (2003)). Virtually every proxy statement, annual report, or article in the press suggests that underwater options are a nuisance to firms. We have seen little that extols the virtues of underwater options. In fact, the 2008 financial crisis created a new problem of underwater options, and brought with it fresh calls for firms to find ways to extinguishing these.12 12 Press reports include “Technology Options Sink,” (The Wall Street Journal, November 10, 2008), “Firms Jump to Salvage ‘Underwater’ Stock Options,” The Wall Street Journal, December 21, 2008. 35 To suggest that firms have found it useful to incorporate out-of-the-money options flies in the face of a mass of evidence. In fact, the pressure to deal with underwater options and the dilution costs associated with refresher grants led to an interesting development in 2001. FASB’s Fin 44 actually re-introduced a version of repricing called “6 and 1” repricing. In “6 & 1” repricing, options can be cancelled and regranted at the new strike price without recognizing an expense against income, provided that the new option grant is at least 6 months and 1 day after the cancellation of the old underwater options. “6 & 1” repricing has its own problems related to the six-month waiting period that makes it an imperfect substitute for repricing. We thoroughly analyzed a sample of 6 and 1 repricings assembled by Institutional Shareholder Services and find that it has been neither particularly popular nor effective. The details are available from the authors upon request. A second issue with superior benefits hypothesis is that it fails to explain the most important empirical feature of the data: specifically, the rise in refresher grants after December 1998. If refresher grants were indeed superior contracts, they should have been equally widely used prior to 1998. Yet, as we show in Figure 2, this contracting form came to life primarily after 1998. Firms clearly show differential preference for repricing in a regime when both options were available. Thus, the superior benefits hypothesis needs to explain not only the source of such superior benefits but also the time series variation in such benefits, specifically why these benefits were discovered after 1998 coincident with the demise of repricing. 6.3.5 Goal Is Improved Disclosure, Not Stopping Compensation Flows Another version of the superior benefits hypothesis is that the anti-repricing push by institutions may actually have the (benign) goal of improving disclosure rather than stopping repricing. Under this view, the problem with the pre-1998 regime was insufficient disclosure of repricing. Prior to 1998, repricing was only reported in a 36 10-year historical table as part of the proxy statements. By forcing firms to expense repricing, compensation for underwater options becomes more visible. Suppose that the desired outcome is indeed better and transparent disclosure of compensation. Did requiring expensing achieve this goal? One could in fact argue that post-1998, underwater option related compensation actually became more obscure. Refresher grants are aggregated and disclosed together with regular option grants. In some cases, information on refresher grants can be gleaned because they are outof-cycle. But in-cycle refresher grants or other forms of compensation in-cycle are buried within the overall compensation package granted annually with no particular requirement to disclose the portions related to underwater options. There is not even a ten-year table that was formerly disclosed with repricing. In short, even if the goal was to improve transparency, it did not materialize. In fact, the result is arguably more opqueness due to offsetting behavior than undoes regulatory intent. This is, of course, the now-familiar Peltzman effect with more than complete offset, now applied to compensation transparency. 6.4 Summary Empirically, we find that the switch from repricing to refresher grants entails extra costs that might appear puzzling at first sight. These costs can in fact be explained by a wedge between employee and firm valuation of equity incentives that widens as options go out of the money. Several alternate explanations do not stand up to scrutiny. They are either empirically unsupported or do not explain key features of the data. Two other pieces of evidence support the view that employee-firm valuation wedges explain the excess costs of refresher grants. In a sample of 197 executive stock option repricings, Chidambaran (2008) finds that 72% of repriced options flow to nonexecutive employees. The subjective-objective valuation wedge is likely to be more relevant for these rank-and-file employees since they are less wealthy, more risk averse, 37 and have less ability to diversify their wealth portfolios. Finally, supplementary evidence from an independent sample, an underwater options exchange program executed by Microsoft Corporation in 2003, also suggests a divergence between employee and firm valuation of stock options. These data are presented in the Appendix. 7 Conclusion The 2008 financial crisis has led to historically unprecedented government intervention in the financial markets and in its wake, several calls for rethinking regulations and developing new regulatory frameworks. As a result, the implications and economic consequences of regulations are of interest today to both academics and policy makers. A key focus of regulatory activities is the reform of compensation contracts. Echoing strains of a decade-old debate in the compensation literature, much popular anger has been directed at inappropriate compensation packages not only at failed institutions such as AIG but more broadly in the corporate sector. In addition, these generous compensation contracts are also seen as creating incentives to take on excessive risk, which has been held as a key cause of the 2008 financial crisis. Designing effective regulations to curb compensation excesses and understanding the consequences of alternative regulatory approaches is a key concern for regulators. Benmelech and Moskowitz (2009) point out one difficulty in designing effective regulations. They focus on an ex-ante issue, the incentives of interested parties to frame regulations for private rather than public benefit. As a consequence, they argue that regulation may be ineffectively designed and may in fact worsen the blight of the entities that it seeks to protect. Our study illustrates a complementary ex-post force that can produce similar distortions: offsetting behavior. As Peltzman (1975) points out, offsetting behavior can attenuate, undo, or more than completely offset the intent of regulatory restrictions. In the specific context of compensation contracts, there have been several efforts to rein in compensation by restricting or imposing costs on specific types of compensation, such as caps or tax deductibility of salary 38 or bonuses, restricting options, or golden parachutes. Piecemeal restrictions of this sort lead to compensation squeezing out through other avenues. The net effect, as we empirically show, could be to actually increase costs for shareholders. Our results suggest that regulations that merely target pieces of the compensation package are less likely to be effective. Such curbs or restrictions on compensation end up creating asymmetries across different pieces of the package and are merely a recipe for inducing offsetting behavior. To be effective, regulations need to target the totality of compensation symmetrically. The compensation rules for TARP firms, which target total pay of the CEO and the top 20 to top 100 employees, appear to be a step in the right direction. Likewise, the move to expense options makes its treatment for reported earnings symmetric with bonuses and salaries. This is also a step in the right direction, to prevent firms from shifting to contracts with less punitive expensing requirements even when these alternatives are costlier from the shareholder’s viewpoint. Our results also suggest that regulations should adopt similar symmetric approach towards compensation transparency. For instance, efforts to make repricing more transparent to shareholders by requiring expensing does not necessarily result in increased transparency. Firms can offset the regulation by simply shifting to more opaque contracts with even more minimal transparency. The superior regulatory approach is to be more comprehensive and increase the transparency of all forms of compensation. The current move to aggregate and disclose all compensation expenses into “one” number is a step in this direction. However, given the variations in models, model validity, and inputs, it is not clear whether the move to report a aggregate measure is enough. Firms could offset transparency requirements by choosing convenient inputs, models, or compensation structures and hide behind the opacity of an aggregate measure. To avoid the consequences of offsetting behavior, regulators should perhaps require standardized and full disclosure of compensation terms at the level of individual transactions 39 Our analysis also contributes towards the literature on how firms and individuals value incentive compensation contracts. Our evidence supports the view that there is a wedge between how employees and firms value incentive contracts. The wedge appears to have the property that it widens as stock prices decline and options go out-of-the-money. This is some of the first evidence employees receiving options and firms granting options attach different valuations to the same contracts. Our evidence is particularly interesting because it is based on actual transactions of compensation flows between firms and employees, and is thus based on the revealed preferences of the contracting parties. The changes in the employee-firm wedge set up interesting dynamic issues in renegotiation of incentive contracts. 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We present other evidence of such valuation differentials outside the setting of refresher grants because there is little empirical evidence on the differentials or how they vary with moneyness. More importantly, from a positive economics viewpoint, it is desirable to develop evidence that firms and employees contract as if such differentials exist. We develop some data on these lines using information on an options exchange program where employees traded underwater options for cash. A1. Transaction Background In the wake of the crash that followed the Internet bubble in 2001, options granted by Microsoft Corporation went underwater. Microsoft could have repriced its options, but repricing was unattractive on account of the 1998 FASB rule change on expensing repriced options. Microsoft instead opted to buy out the underwater options held by its employees. With this intent, the firm made a tender offer for underwater ESOs through J P Morgan. The transaction was initiated in June 2003 and consummated in December 2003. Over 300 million options were surrendered by over 18,000 employees. The public disclosures made by the firm permit us to draw inferences about the valuation of underwater options by Microsoft’s employees. Evidence from this transaction illustrates the existence and the economic significance of subjective valuation of options. A total of 621.4 million options held by 36,539 employees were eligible for surrender. Of these, 344.6 million options held by 18,503 employees were tendered to J P Morgan, who paid $382 million for these options. $219 million was paid to employees before December 2003, with the rest to be held by Microsoft and paid with interest over the next two years contingent on the employee continuing to be employed by Microsoft. The 10-Q for the quarter ended December 2003, which was filed on February 6, 2004, also reveals that the surrendered options had strike prices ranging from $33.03 to $59.56. Against this, Microsoft’s closing price on the date of consummation of the deal, December 8, 2003, was $ 26.24. These data can be used to price the surrendered employee stock options using the Black-Scholes approach, while the price paid to the employee indicates the subjective valuation of the option to the surrendering employee. 44 A2. Subjective Values in Exchange Transaction Our broad approach is to compare the Black-Scholes value of the options surrendered in the exchange offer with the prices that employees received for their surrendered options. For this purpose, we need data on the terms of options surrendered such as strike prices and maturities, as well as information on the price paid for the surrendered options. Firm-wide aggregate data are made available through company disclosures, and these provide insight into the subjective valuation of options by employees. We read several filings made by Microsoft including Form SC-TO-I, a tender offer statement on October 15, 2003 and subsequent amendments to this statement, a prospectus under rule 424 (b)(2) dated October 24, 2003 and related supplements, the 10-Q’s around the transaction dates, and contracts that Microsoft signed with J P Morgan related to this transaction and available through SEC’s Edgar database. Unfortunately, a detailed schedule of the strike price and maturity of each surrendered option is not disclosed. We can deduce some information based on aggregates disclosed in annual compensation statements. For the strike price, Microsoft discloses that the weighted average strike of surrendered options is equal to $38.70. For maturity, we turn to the stock-and-flow of options section in the 10-K’s or 10-Q’s, which report the balance of options and their weighted average maturity of options in each strike price bucket. The bucket of options with strike prices from $33.03 to $59.56 options (which were surrendered) had average maturities remaining of 4.7 to 4.9 years as of December 2003. Finally, we can obtain volatility from historical return data for Microsoft, or turn to implied volatilities of traded options. Implied volatilities of exchange traded options range from 26% to 50% as of the Friday close on December 5, 2003. They vary based on the maturity and strike price. The longest maturity exchange traded options on Microsoft were two year options with strikes from $20 to $30 and these had implied volatilities of 26% to 30% . The historical volatility was higher at 56%. Thus, we have a range of volatility estimates for computing the value of options surrendered in the Microsoft exchange program. With an average strike of $38.72 for surrendered options, spot price of $26.24, a riskless rate of 2.3%, and volatility of 26%, and maturity of 4.7 years, the BlackScholes value of the average surrendered option equals $3.31. Employees, however, received an average of $1.10 per option, which is equal to $382 million paid by J P Morgan divided by the 344.6 million options surrendered. These baseline estimates suggest that employees who surrendered their options place a significant 67% discount, relative to the Black-Scholes value, on the out-of-the-money options. Our estimate of the subjective discount can vary based on what we assume about the maturity of the surrendered options. If we assumed the maturity is eight years, the objective value would increase, so the subjective discount would widen to 80%. On the other hand, if 45 we assume a three year maturity, the objective value would decrease and the discount would reduce to 42%. In all these cases, the discount is significant. To interpret the valuation wedge, it may also be helpful to fit theoretical models of subjective valuation and infer model parameters implied by the prices. The model of Ingersoll (2006) is convenient for this purpose. Assuming the percentage wealth of employees tied to Microsoft is 25%, the $1.10 subjective value of surrendered options implies a relative risk aversion of 4.5 if idiosyncratic volatility were 95% of total volatility. If the idiosyncratic risk were 90% or 85% of total volatility, the relative risk aversion would be 5 and 5.6, respectively. Fixing the option’s value, an increase in idiosyncratic volatility is needed to offset a lower risk aversion and vice versa. An e-mail communication from Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer on July 8, 2003 provides additional details about the pricing of the options as a function of the strike price. Options with a strike of $33 would fetch a price of about $2, options with $42 strike would fetch $0.60 and options with $45 strike would fetch $0.25. The BlackScholes option prices for these three strike prices equal $4.48, $2.58, and $2.15. The subjective discounts are 55%, 77%, and 88% for the three options. The subjective discounting of options is substantial and increases as the options go underwater. 46 Fig. 1. Number of firms in EXECUCOMP with at least one repriced executive in a fiscal year (i.e. PREPRICE = “TRUE”). Fiscal year tequals calendar year t if the year end is between June and December and calendar year t-1 otherwise. Thus, the 1999 data includes repricing for firms with fiscal years beginning between June 1998 and May 1999, which spans a sub-period before the December 1998 FASB change in repricing accounting. 47 Fig. 2. Number of firms in EXECUCOMP which gave two grants in a fiscal year with at least two executives receiving options in each grant. Fiscal year t equals calendar year t if the year end is between June and December and calendar year t-1 otherwise. Thus, the 1998 data includes firms with fiscal years beginning between January 1999 and May 1999, a sub-period after the December 1998 FASB change in repricing accounting. 48 Table 1: Option Grant Data Table 1 reports the steps used in reading and sorting data on executive option grants as disclosed in the 2003 edition of EXECUCOMP. Data is for options granted to executives over the 10 year period from 1992 and 2003. Observations Dropped Total executive years Observations Retained 152,159 Combine option grants that have same expiration and strike price but reported as separate grants 4,989 147,170 78 147,092 Delete observations for years in which an executive receives reload options and for all subsequent years 11,053 136,039 Drop observations when the exercise price is not within ± 20% of stock price on grant date 31,585 103,129 Drop observations when exercise price 6= market price 2,954 100,175 Missing CRSP data 49 Table 2: The usage of out-of-cycle refresher grants Table 2 reports the distribution by year of firms in the ExecuComp database using out-ofcycle refresher grants. Firms in this sample make an annual options grant in a fiscal year and a second grant within the same fiscal year at an exercise price that is at least 20% below that of the first grant. At least two executives should have received both grants for inclusion in the sample. We exclude cases in which proxies and 10-K’s indicate that option grants relate to reloads, grants in subsidiaries, mergers, and other idiosyncratic causes. Fiscal year # Firms 1992 1 1993 3 1994 7 1995 2 1996 2 1997 2 1998 24 1999 22 2000 26 2001 22 2002 24 1993 - 2002 135 50 Table 3: Deadweight costs of refresher grants Table 8 reports the median and mean costs of making out of cycle refresher grants and the costs if the firms had repriced instead for a sample of 135 firms in the EXECUCOMP database that made out of cycle refresher grants. Column 2 reports the median (mean) costs for each executive officer who receives a refresher grant. Column 3 sums the costs across all executives for each firm and reports the median (mean) cost per firm in our sample. Column 4 reports the median (mean) costs for all employees receiving a refresher grants using data on total option grants using information provided in the proxy statements. Executive level grant data for each executive come from the EXECUCOMP database. Per executive All executives (per firm) All employees (per firm) Total observations 590 135 135 Black-Scholes cost of refresher grant (A) 327,338 (839,054) 1,534,138 (3,666,979) 8,086,731 (49,784,53) Black-Scholes value of underwater options 448,780 (1,543,723) 1,948,361 (6,746,643) 10,209,110 (99,277,850) Black-Scholes value of underwater options, repriced 534,787 (1,821,013) 2,559,311 (7,958,500) 12,754,290 (117,025,600) % Change in Black-Scholes value 25.38% (113.73%) 25.71% (136.79%) 25.18% (136.79%) Black-Scholes cost of repricing (B) 86,229 (277,289) 427,709 (1,211,857) 2,278,727 (17,747,720) Deadweight costs (A) - (B) 193,821 (561,765) 930,998 (2,455,121) 4,213,566 (32,036,810) 51 Table 4: CEO Compensation by Year Table 4 reports the median (mean) total compensation (EXECUCOMP Data Item TDC1) (in $000) for the CEO by year. Panel A presents the compensation for companies in which the portfolio of options held by the CEO is at least 25% out of the money. Panel B presents data on CEO compensation for companies that use refresher grants, with CEO adjusted for any refresher grant received by the CEO. Panel C presents the data on total CEO compensation, including any refresher grants the CEO receives, for firms that use refresher grants. Panel A CEO Option Portfolio Out-of-the-Money >25% Year N Median Mean 1993 169 $1498 $2179 1994 151 $1470 $1944 1995 311 $1191 $2046 1996 237 $1370 $2382 1997 254 $1599 $3196 1998 193 $1641 $3170 1999 382 $1883 $3810 2000 465 $2087 $4126 2001 405 $2041 $4498 2002 395 $2272 $4440 Total 2962 $1728 $3456 Year N 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total 3 7 2 2 2 23 21 26 21 24 131 Panel B Excl. Refresher Grant Median Mean $1226 $2170 $ 888 $ 977 $1959 $1959 $2437 $2437 $1492 $1492 $1623 $2327 $2054 $3782 $1871 $4865 $2417 $7909 $2490 $4249 $1892 $4218 52 Incl. Refresher Grant Median Mean $2544 $2610 $1298 $1458 $2621 $2621 $3083 $3083 $1863 $1863 $2035 $2965 $2769 $4554 $2779 $7168 $4960 $1479 $3867 $5779 $2955 $6356 Table 5: Multivariate Regression Analysis of Total CEO Compensation, Table 5 reports regression results for CEO compensation. Regression include time dummies and firm-level fixed effects. Data is over the period from 1993-1998. LogSales is the logarithm of Sales in the prior fiscal year. LogROA is the logarithm of (1+ ROA) where ROA is defined as the ratio of Net Income over Total Assets in the prior fiscal year. LogRetM is the logarithm of (1 + Rett−1 ) and LogRet2M is the logarithm of (1 + Rett−2 ), where Rett−1 and Rett−2 are the return in the fiscal year t − 1 and t − 2 respectively. Vol is the volatility of monthly returns over the prior 60 months. SalesGr is the ratio of the current fiscal year sales to the sales in the prior fiscal year. RND is the level of R&D expenses scaled by Sales. Lev is the ratio of Debt to Total Assets. LogEMP is the logarithm of the Number of Employees in the firm. FEFEMP is the Free Cash Flow scaled by the Number of Employees. REFRESHER is a dummy variable that takes a value of 1 if an observation is in our out of cycle refresher grant sample . The variables DUM94-DUM98 are year dummies for years 1994-1998 respectively. The superscripts ∗ ∗ and ∗ ∗ ∗ refer to significance at the 5% and the 1% respectively. Variable Intercept LogSales LogROA LogRetM LogRet2M Vol SalesGr RND LEV LogEMP FCFEMP REFRESHER DUM95 DUM96 DUM97 DUM98 Coefficient p-Value -1.999 0.248 0.328 0.058 -0.054 0.401 0.291 0.001 0.344 0.038 0.000 0.241 0.060 0.005 -0.009 -0.002 0.002 0.010 0.207 0.208 0.171 0.153 0.001 0.863 0.072 0.660 0.327 0.170 0.088 0.888 0.843 0.955 53 Table 6: Excess Compensation Table 6 reports regressions results for excess compensation for the period from 1999-2002. Excess Compensation is calculated as the difference between the actual compensation less the predicted value using the model and coefficients specified in Table 5, i.e. using coefficients from the Pre 1998 period to estimate excess returns in the Post 1998 period. UNDERWATER is a dummy for firms in which the CEO’s option portfolio is at least 25% out-of-the money. DUM00, DUM01, and DUM02 are year dummies for 2000, 2001, and 2002 respectively. Variable Coefficient p-Value Intercept 0.046 0.304 UNDERWATER -0.026 0.572 DUM00 -0.084 0.191 DUM01 -0.131 0.036 DUM02 -0.137 0.022 54