Understanding how Context Influences
Transport Policy by using Island Cases
What to look out for
• Why have policies developed as
they have? (contextual factors)
Dr Marcus Enoch
Transport Studies Group
School of Civil and Building Engineering
Loughborough University
Email: m.p.enoch@lboro.ac.uk
Tel: 01509 223408
Lecture 1
1
• What can policy makers from
elsewhere learn? (might any
measures be transferable and if so
how?)
Lecture 2
Transport policy on four small
islands
2
What is an island?
Why look at islands?
Why Cuba, Mauritius, Malta and
Singapore?
A few observations...
Lessons for policy elsewhere
“a mass of land surrounded by water
and is smaller than a continent”
and
“something isolated, detached or
surrounded”
Collins English Dictionary
Lecture 2
3
Lecture 2
4
5
Lecture 2
6
Why look at islands?
To use as a model (i.e. to simplify a
transport system) so we can:
• examine how physical, economic
and social factors combine with
transport policy choices to
influence the development of
transport systems; and
• apply any lessons.
Lecture 2
Factor
Small size
Vulnerability examples
Limited natural resources,
Intensity of land use issues,
Immediacy of interdependence in systems,
Spatial concentration of productive assets.
Remoteness
High external transport costs and delays in
and
accessing external goods,
Insularity
Delays and poor quality information flows,
Geopolitically weakened
Demographic Limited human resource base,
factors
Small and rapidly changing populations,
Single urban centre and populations
concentrated on coastal zone,
Dis-economies of scale leading to high per
capita costs for infrastructure and services
Economic
factors
Small economies so small internal market,
Dependence on external finance,
Dependence on natural resources,
High specialisation of production
Why these four islands? (1)
• First, they have interesting circumstances:
– Cuba - economic pressures over five decades
have stifled transport growth
– Mauritius - beginning rapid transport growth
and unsure of next step
– Malta – maturing economy with limited car
ownership/use restrictions
– Singapore – mature economy high car
ownership but strong policies to limit effects
• Not only that, but they have responded in
different ways…
7
8
Pelling and Uitto (2001), Lockhart et al (1993), Conway (1998) and Slade (1999).
Different policy responses
• In Cuba, policy options heavily restricted
by long-term economic and political
pressure, so significant policy intervention
• In Mauritius, Government could act to
reduce car use but has so far decided not
to pro-actively restrict motorization
• In Malta, Government action limited by
tight dual party electoral system in small
country. Low level of policy intervention
• In Singapore, Government chose to adopt
9
controversial anti-car policies unimpeded
Flexibility of Action and
Degree of Intervention
Degree of Intervention
Degree
Governmental
Flexibility
Action
of Low
High
of
Restricted
Malta
Cuba
High
Mauritius
Singapore
Populations, GDP, Areas,
Isolations and Locations
Why these four islands? (2)
Parameter
Population
(millions)
GDP ($/cap.,
PPP)
• Second, they represent wide
spreads in terms of:
• Population size,
• GDP
• Area,
• Degree of isolation, and
• Geographical location
11
Cuba
11.29
Mauritius
1.21
Malta
0.39
Singapore
4.16
2545 (est.)
3779
9245
20544
2040
615
316
1 234
685
6 075
0.82
0.42
1.42
87
35
3
Indian
Ocean
Europe
Southeast
Asia
Area (km2)
110 861
Population
101
density
(person/km2)
Population
0.31
growth
(%/year)
Degree of
33
isolation
Location
Caribbean
Island locations
Why these four islands? (3)
• Third, Enoch and Warren (2006) looked
at ‘apparent mobility’ and determined
that the four islands could be plotted at
‘interesting points’ in their transport
development
• Thus:
Lecture 2
13
Lecture 2
14
Island Narratives
Islands
• Cuba
• Mauritius
• Malta
• Singapore
Lecture 2
15
Structure
• Background
• Transport System
• Transport System
Performance
• Key contextual factors
Lecture 2
16
Cuba – Background
Transport Practices in Cuba
Lecture 2
17
Lecture 2
18
Cuba – Background
Cuba – Background
19th
• Strong US influence from late
Century until 1959.
• Socialist Revolution overthrew
previous regime and threatened US
interests.
• President Kennedy imposed
economic blockade in 1961.
• Subsequently strengthened over
time.
19
• Cuba looked to Soviet Block for
support.
• This began to unravel from 1989
with economic and political changes
in Eastern Europe.
• Cuba entered ‘Special Period’ and
had to dramatically readjust from
1990.
• Change now in the air?
20
Cuba GDP, % change, annual
1
Modal share: 1981, ‘98
0
7.8
6.2
5.6
100
5
2.5
2.5
1.2
0.7
Yr 1981
0
75
Yr 1998
-2.9
- 5
50
-1
0
-10.7
- 1
-11.6
5
-14.9
-2
25
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Lecture 2
21
0
Lecture 2
Walk
Bike
Vehicle ownership levels
Bus
Car
22
Mobility trend
800
3000
USA
700
Can.
600
F
Annual
Mobility
(km/person)
2000
500
UK
400
Puerto Rico
300
1000
Uruguay
200
Year
GDP (PPP, $/cap.)
Beliz./Arg.
100
0
0
0
Lecture 2
Haiti
10000
20000
30000
23
1960
Lecture 2
1970
1980
1990
2000
24
Mobility forecasts
Cuba – Transport System
50000
• Massive impacts on transport
system.
• Shortages of vehicles, fuel, parts,
lubricants…
• Insufficient supply available for
demand…
• Feeds back into economic
circumstances
pass km/yr
40000
30000
Ind.: US, Can, Aus, Jap, NZ, EU, Nor, Swit, Turk
Ref.: FSU, Bulg, Czech, Slvk,
F Yugo, Pol, Rom.
Dev.: LAM, MEA, AFR,
CPA, S Asia, PAS (27)
20000
10000
0
Lecture 2
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
25
2060
Lecture 2
Passenger Rail
Lecture 2
Electric (suburban) rail
27
Lecture 2
Omnibus Metropolitan
Lecture 2
26
28
Car Fleet
29
Lecture 2
30
Roads
Broader responses
• Rationing
(1961)
• Self-employed
– legalised
– dollar market
Lecture 2
31
• Tourism
• And in turn all
of these have
impacts on
transport in
Cuba
32
Lecture 2
Demand side responses
State of Emergency
• Suppression
• Black outs
– economic slow down
– shut down nickel
– refineries closed
• Land use planning
– anti-sprawl
– transit friendly
– mixed use to
shorten trips
• 80% cut in fuel use
– switch to
firewood/gas
– bike replace ICE
– animal for tractor
• Transport
measures
Lecture
2
• Employment policy
– Relocation schemes
– Compressed
working weeks
33
Lecture 2
Supply side responses
Lecture 2
34
New modes - Camello
35
Lecture 2
36
Adapted modes
New mode - Ciclo-Bus
Lecture 2
37
Lecture 2
Adapted modes and new
partnerships
Lecture 2
Non-motorised modes
39
Lecture 2
Animal traction
Lecture 2
38
40
A walking city...
41
Lecture 2
42
Increasing occupancy
Lecture 2
Organised ride share
43
Lecture 2
Shared taxis
Lecture 2
44
Beyond useful lifetime
45
Lecture 2
Sugar cane trains
46
Zafra - sugar harvest
• Insufficient
locomotives
– use of steam
• Lack of…
– fuel
– parts
– lubricants
– engineers
Lecture 2
47
Lecture 2
48
Sugar cane collection
Conclusions:
• Decreased mobility cf 1950’s
– demand for rail is > 3X supply
• Innovative solutions in place
– shift from ICE to animal and bike
– high occupancy absolute must,
sharing normal
• Policy aimed at curbing mobility
Lecture 2
49
– low ownership, land use/mixed
with high density
Lecture 2
Contextual factors
Conclusions (2)
• Economic sanctions
since 1959
• Collapse of USSR
1989
• Special Period
declared in 1990
• Helms-Burton Act
1996 & Torricelli
1992
• Recent events
•
•
•
•
Low rate of motorisation
Demand far exceeds supply
Very high share by public modes
Low/wide vehicle
performance/emissions
• Scarce capital and no/low
subsidies
• Urban structure suited to PT
Lecture 2
50
51
Lecture 2
52
53
Lecture 2
54
Contextual factors
• ‘Blame the US’ culture has instilled common
purpose in citizenry and allows difficult
decisions to be taken.
• Climate acts against walking and cycling.
Lecture 2
So...
The case of Mauritius
• Mauritius could be a microcosm of
how transport systems across the
world have evolved, and could
provide a pointer as to how that
process will continue
A simplified and accelerated example of how
modern transport systems develop
Lecture 2
Lecture 2
55
Lecture 2
Mauritius
Background
• Independent
from UK
since 1968.
• Strong
localised
democracy
• Growing
fairly quickly
• Economy based on sugar cane, tourism,
textiles and financial services.
• Looking to emulate Singapore
• Gateway to Africa
• Women increasingly entering work force
• Education levels increasing
• Household incomes rising and more
disposable income
57
Lecture 2
Background
59
58
Background
•
•
•
•
Lecture 2
56
Car purchase taxes are very high
Fuel prices not cheap
Vehicle licences expensive
But significant tax breaks for
public sector employees to buy,
own and use cars.
Lecture 2
60
Transport
Lecture 2
61
Port Louis Southern Bus Terminal
Lecture 2
62
Transport Impacts: More vehicles
• Vehicle ownership
– Cars and dual-purpose vehicles
• 40,566 in 1989 to 80,576 in 1999
• including 5.4% increase 1998-1999
• Cars/DPVs per 1000 population up from
39 to 69 1989-1999 - 2nd in Africa to
South Africa
– Motor cycles
Lecture 2
63
• 39,093 in 1989 to 109,143 in 1999 almost 180% increase
Lecture 2
64
Steadily
Worsening
Traffic
Congestion
...growing road network, but
even faster growth in traffic
• Road Network
– Length
• 1783km in 1986 to 1910km in 1999
– Vehicle density
• 61 veh/km in ‘89 to 116veh/km in ‘99
• Highest in Africa
– Congestion
• Journey time up 40% Port Louis-Curepipe
• Cost equivalent to 0.5% GDP
Lecture 2
65
Lecture 2
66
...and a deteriorating
environment
...more bus use?*!
• Collisions
• Bus
– Overall
– Bus use
• 8,259 (812 per 100,000 people) in 1988
to 18,055 (1,605 per 100,000) in 1998
– Fatalities
• 174m passenger trips in 1984, 361m
estimated for 2000
– Bus fleet
• 122 in 1988, 162 in 1998
• 1093 vehicles in 1985, 1716 in 1999
• Emissions
– Twice 1995 levels by 2010
•
It has also led to...
Lecture 2
67
Lecture 2
Buses in Mauritius
68
Future policy options
• National Road Transport Policy ‘97
• road building and traffic management,
road pricing and tougher land use
planning
• bus priority and infrastructure
investment, privatise NTC, make buses
cost-effective, build LRT/Busway Port
Louis-Curepipe
• reform of the freight sector
• Land Transport Authority to set policy
Lecture 2
69
In practice…
• Subsequent reports and policy
language have followed similar lines
• But ‘political reality’ has intervened
• LRT/busway still not started
• Parking controls changed slightly but
not much, and no road pricing yet
• No improvements to the bus network
• Instead, changes in opposite direction
71
Lecture 2
70
Road Widening
and Building
Programme
Lecture 2
72
Bagatelle – One of several out of
town retail parks recently opened..
Conclusions
• In Mauritius, even though
– buying a car is expensive and
complicated, running a car expensive
and nowhere to go and public
transport cheap and comprehensive...
• CAR USE STILL RAPIDLY
GROWING AND CONDITIONS
GETTING WORSE
Lecture 2
73
Lecture 2
Therefore...
Contextual factors
• If Mauritius to succeed as tourist
destination and agricultural,
industrial and commercial centre,
it needs to act soon to reduce
effects of the increased economic
activity-increased mobility link,
and to dissipate the amount of
that mobility taken up by the car.
Lecture 2
• Localised political reality
• Climate not good for walking and
cycling
• Culture that the car is aspirational
and a status symbol – prayers for
a new car when bought
• Growing affluence and need for
access to more distant locations
75
Lecture 2
Malta – Background
• Independent
from the UK
since 1964.
• Strong
localised
democracy
• Grew fairly
quickly
Lecture 2
74
76
Malta
•
•
•
•
77
378,000 population
Not too many roads (no room)
Relatively near Sicily
491 cars per 1000 people
Lecture 2
78
Transport situation
• 250,000 vehicles
• Limited TDM. Rampant growth in car
use – (116% up 1985-2000). Road
capacity increased at same rate
(2000km now)
• Bus fares rose lots during the 1990s
and little investment in public transport
• High levels of congestion, pollution
Lecture 2
79
Traffic
congestion
in Malta
Lecture 2
80
Contextual factors
• Localised political reality
• Climate not good for walking and
cycling
• Culture that the car is aspirational
and a status symbol – prayers for
a new car when bought
• Growing affluence and need for
access to more distant locations
Lecture 2
81
Lecture 2
Singapore – Background
Transport policy (1)
• Independent from
UK since 1965
• Strong, stable
Government since.
• Political leadership
delivers growth in
return for citizen
compliance
Lecture 2
82
83
• Government realised in early
1970s that high motorisation level
unsustainable
• Developed a long range land use
and economic strategy (50 years)
• Helped with development of metro
system and express bus network
• Limited road building
Lecture 2
84
MRT & Bus
Transport policy (2)
• High vehicle taxes (on buying and
registration) but slowed
replacement rate
• Supplemented by Vehicle Quota
System - cars effectively rationed
by price
• Area Licensing Scheme 1975
• Electronic Road Pricing 1998
Lecture 2
85
Lecture 2
ERP and CoE
86
Transport policy (3)
• Also strong parking policy (charges
for public spaces and even a
workplace parking levy)
• Clever implementation strategies
Lecture 2
87
Lecture 2
Impacts
88
Contextual factors
• Lower growth in car ownership and
use is controlled, as are
congestion, pollution etc.
• Access offered by high quality
alternatives
• But car ownership very much a
status symbol, almost as a result
of policies
• Political leadership that is able to
think long term thanks to
‘compliant’ population
• Recognition by public that small
space limits transport options
• Walking and cycling affected by
climate (and planning decisions!)
Lecture 2
Lecture 2
89
90
Comparing Political Factors
Comparing Political Factors
Dimension
Political
system
Cuba
Mauritius Malta
Singapore
Single party Multiparty Dual party Multiparty,
state.
system.
system
although same
Authoritarian Regular
where
party
in
regime
switches in political
control since
1965.
control.
control
regularly
switches.
Organisation Strongly
Centralised, Centralised, Strongly
of
interests centralised
democratic. democratic. centralised,
and
power Communist. Top-down
Top-down
mostly
topdistribution
Top
down, diffusion,
diffusion,
down diffusion
limited public some public some public limited public
input.
participation participation participation.
Dimension
Institutions
and
bureaucracy
Cuba
Mauritius Malta
Singapore
Command
Based
on Based
on Strong
and control – UK
UK
government
strong
Parliament Parliament regulations.
regulation.
system.
system.
Bus and rail
Transport
Largely
Privately
predominantly
publicly
privatised
owned
publicly
owned.
owned,
bus system. buses,
hierarchical,
highly
well planned.
subsidised.
91
92
Comparing Land Use Factors
Comparing Economic Factors
Dimension
Cuba
Mauritius Malta
Singapore
GDP ($/cap, $2
545 3,779
9,245
20,544
PPP)
(2003)
GDP growth 8.0
2.5
1.0
6.4
rate 2005
Total share of Diversified
Export
led Export led. Export
led
many
imports
of economy:
(60.0 %).
Some high with
goods
and export 33%,
value
high
value
exports
services (% tourism 33%
exports
(92.3%).
GDP)
(77.3%).
Economic
Gradual shift Slow shift to More
Brief
conditions
to
market free market growth due downturn
in
based
economy
to
2003 (SARS)
economy,
and
from connectivity affected
longer term sugar
to in
EU- tourism
and
Lecture 2
93
unclear.
tourism,
membership consumer
and finance.
spending.
Comparing Transport Solutions
Dimension
Past
and
present
policies
Cuba
Mauritius Malta
Singapore
Aims
to Aim
to Relatively
Highly
expand
maximise
weak
land planned,
50
supply within economic
use controls year land use
constraints. growth.
and
plan. Aims to
75% of land Land
use transport
develop
as
state-owned. controls and policies.
financial and
Urban growth transport
high-tech hub
limited
to policies
for Southeast
maintain
relatively
Asia.
densities.
weak.
95
Cuba
Land use Capital city
form
of
2.2m.
75%
urbanised
population
Very
limited
sprawl.
Activity High
Patterns percentage
of socially
necessary
trips.
Demand
constrained
by supply
Lectureshortages.
2
Mauritius
~45% living
in
capital
and
other
nearby
settlements.
Malta
High density
population,
esp
around
capital
and
port.
Urbanization
is ~90%.
Singapore
Highly
planned
with central core
area
(730,000
living in centre)
~100% urbanised
city-state.
Growing bus
and car use
serving
increasing
female
workforce.
Increased
dispersal of
activities.
High
car
ownership
tending
towards
saturation,
with
strong
social
acceptance
of car use as
basic need.
High
levels
of
public
transport
use (bus 32%,
metro 15%), car
sharing
(42%)
and taxi (11%)
due to long term
land use plan and
94
high investment.
Dimension
Cuba
Mauritius Malta
Singapore
Drivers
and Lots
of A
rapidly Limited
Desire
to
examples of transport
growing
drivers for maintain
technical
innovations economy
innovation. steady,
innovation
e.g. camello leading to a Redevelope predictable,
bus network, lack
of d
bus efficient traffic
animal
capacity
network
flow led to a
traction,
probably
and
re- full range of
cycle
bus requiring
appraisal of economic and
system,
new modes tourism
regulatory
organised car like use of impacts on instruments to
sharing
as taxi-train,
bus
maintain
well as policy and
patronage. access.
High
innovations networks to Use
of technology
e.g. reducing supplement number
measures well
commuting the
bus plate
embedded
distances
systems.
recognition into society.
through
Potential for technology
job/home
a future LRT in road user
relocations, or
guided charging
petrol
busway
scheme.
96
rationing etc. system.
Output indicator
Comparing Transport Performance
Cuba
Motorised mob.
~ 400
(person km/yr)
Personal car use
N/A
(person km/yr)
Veh./1000 pop ~ 45
Deaths due to
traffic accidents
(no./yr)
[no./pop.]
Malta
Singapore
1 350
5 230
6 498
N/A
3 735
2 041
~111
~675
~175
1309
163
13
~ 400
[0.116]
[0.135]
[0.033]
[0.096]
45 (est.)
60
43
1.9
6.4
Congestion
in capital
and main
urban areas.
Worsening
over time.
Very high
especially
peak
tourism
season.
~4
estimate
Limited.
Under
control.
Energy use by
11
Transport (%)
Eco-footprint
1.54
(global ha/cap.)
Congestion
Low/very
levels
limited
Lecture 2
Mauritius
97
Conclusions
Lecture 2
99
Implications of Island
Characteristics on Transport
Policy (2)
Implications of Island
Characteristics on Transport
Policy (1)
• Smallness:
• Remoteness:
– facilities located close to one another.
– Flat political structures making decision
making chains rather more direct.
• While the first factor would negate travel
demand, the second may well increase
pressure on decision makers to enhance
rather than restrict mobility.
Lecture 2
• Too little transport supply and economy
suffers (Cuba). Hence development of
innovative solutions. Some unsafe,
uncomfortable, undesirable.
• Too little control of car use directly and
indirectly (through lack of planning and
investment in alternatives) sees both
economies suffering (Mauritius & Malta).
• Singapore is transport planner’s dream
city. But contextual factors rather limit
transferability.
Lecture 2
100
101
– high external transport costs limiting the
supply of ‘transport’ (see later).
– Reduced competitive threat from
neighbouring jurisdictions
• So introducing potentially unpopular
policies to restrict traffic growth may be
more politically feasible than elsewhere.
Lecture 2
102
Implications of Island
Characteristics on Transport
Policy (3)
• Demographics:
– Island populations tend to be concentrated in
a limited number of centres.
– Island populations tend to be strongly
influenced by rapid population changes.
• Together, trends likely to exacerbate
pressure on land and so exacerbate the
impacts of any externalities caused by
the
transport system more quickly and
Lecture 2
103
more severely than elsewhere.
Implications of Island
Characteristics on Transport
Policy (4)
• Economic:
– Diseconomies of scale so expensive to
provide transport services and to import
vehicles, parts, fuel and other materials.
– More vulnerable to energy price fluctuations.
• May lead Islands to consider managing
mobility through restricting travel
demand and or improving alternatives
rather earlier than elsewhere.
104
Further details
In practice?
• Mobility is significantly lower
(almost half) that of comparably
wealthy non-SIDS.
Lecture 2
105
Questions?
Further Information
Dr Marcus Enoch
Transport Studies Group
School of Civil and Building Engineering
Loughborough University
Email: m.p.enoch@lboro.ac.uk
Tel: 01509 223408
Lecture 1
107
• Attard M and Enoch M P (2011) Policy transfer and the introduction
of road pricing in Valletta, Malta, Transport Policy, 18(3), 544–
553.
• Warren J P and Enoch M P (2010) Island Transport, Car Ownership
and Use: A Focus on Practices in Cuba, Malta, Mauritius and
Singapore, Island Studies Journal, 5(2), 193-216.
• Enoch M P and Warren J P (2008) Automobile use within selected
island states, Transportation Research A, 42(9), 1208-1219.
• Warren J P and Enoch M P (2006) Mobility, energy and emissions
in Cuba and Florida, Transportation Research D, 11(1), 33-44.
• Enoch M P, Warren J P, Valdes Rios H and Henriquez Menoyo E
(2004) The effect of economic restrictions on transport practices in
Cuba, Transport Policy, 11(1), January, 67-76.
• Enoch M P (2004) Managing transportation demand in Singapore,
Traffic Engineering and Control, 45, (3), 100-102, March.
• Enoch M P (2003) Transport practice and policy in Mauritius,
Lecture 2
106
Journal
of Transport Geography, 11(4), 297-306.