JON S. CORZINE
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
P.O. BOX 402
Governor
Trenton, NJ 08625-0402
Phone: (609) 292-2885
MARK N. MAURIELLO
Acting Commissioner
Fax: (609) 292-7695
April 1, 2009
The Honorable George Pavlou
Acting Regional Administrator
United States Environmental Protection Agency – Region 2
290 Broadway- 26th Floor
New York, New York 10007-1866
Dear Acting Regional Administrator Pavlou:
The purpose of this letter is to provide you with New Jersey’s recommendations for
ozone nonattainment area boundaries for the 0.075 ppm ozone National Ambient Air Quality
Standard (NAAQS). Ambient air quality data indicates the entire State should be designated as
not meeting the health standard. Further, USEPA analyses1 indicate that 11 states significantly
contribute to unhealthy ozone air quality in New Jersey at the old 0.08 ppm standard. New
Jersey’s recommendations are summarized below.
New Jersey recommends that the USEPA consider a large regional nonattainment area,
including the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York,
North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia (See Factor 10 of Enclosure 1).
If ultimately the USEPA chooses not to embrace this regional approach, the State
recommends the 0.075 ppm 8-hour ozone nonattainment area boundaries be the same as the
existing 0.08 ppm 8-hour boundaries. The USEPA’s traditional “Nine Factor Analysis” supports
this option (See Enclosure 2).
•
Designate the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) nonattainment area
the same as that for the 0.08 ppm 8-hour ozone standard to include Bergen, Essex, Hudson,
Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren
counties in New Jersey; and
•
Designate the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) nonattainment area
the same as that for the 0.08 ppm 8-hour ozone standard to include Atlantic, Burlington,
Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Ocean, and Salem counties in New
Jersey.
1
See Factor 10 of New Jersey’s analysis
New Jersey is an Equal Opportunity Employer l Printed on Recycled Paper and Recyclable
Enclosure 1
Recommended Regional 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Boundaries
Connecticut
Enclosure 2
Recommended New Jersey 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Boundaries
The New Jersey Portion of a NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment Area
The New Jersey Portion of a PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area
Enclosure 3
Designation of Nonattainment Areas in New Jersey for the
2008 Revised Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards
Ten Factor Analysis
March 12, 2009
Ten Factor Analysis for the Designation of Nonattainment Areas in New Jersey for
the 2008 Revised Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards
Introduction
The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) revised the Ozone
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) on March 12, 2008.1 The primary
ozone standard was lowered from 0.08 parts per million (ppm) to 0.075 ppm. The
secondary standard was strengthened to make it equal to the primary standard.
According to Section 107(d)(1)(A) of the Federal Clean Air Act (42 U.S.C. §
7407 (d)(1)(A)), states have one year from the time the new standard is effective to
submit a recommendation for designating nonattainment areas to the USEPA for
consideration. The USEPA then has one year to issue the final nonattainment area
designations.
The USEPA issued guidance for determining the boundaries of ozone nonattainment
areas on December 4, 2008.2 The analysis is based on an evaluation the following nine
factors:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Air quality data
Emissions data
Population density and degree of urbanization
Traffic and commuting patterns
Growth rates and patterns
Meteorology
Geography/topography
Jurisdictional boundaries
Level of control of emission sources
The USEPA finalized attainment/nonattainment designations for the 1997 8-hour ozone
NAAQS on June 15, 2004. The entire state of New Jersey is associated with two multistate nonattainment areas, the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT)
nonattainment area and the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD)
nonattainment area. The NY-NJ-CT nonattainment area includes the New Jersey
counties of: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic,
Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren. The PA-NJ-DE-MD nonattainment area includes
the New Jersey counties of: Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland,
Gloucester, Mercer, Ocean, and Salem.
New Jersey considered the composition of the existing ozone nonattainment areas in its
analysis to determine if there should be any changes to these areas due to current data.
The NJDEP recommends that the areas designated as nonattainment areas under the 1997
8-hour ozone standard also be designated the 2008 revised ozone nonattainment areas.
1
73 Fed. Reg. 16436 (March 27, 2008).
December 4, 2008 Memorandum from Robert J. Meyers on “Area Designations for the 2008 Revised
Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards.”
2
2
New Jersey Recommendations for Designation
Multi-State Ozone Nonattainment Areas
PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area
NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment Area
3
Ten Factor Analysis for Determining Nonattainment Area Boundaries
in Designations for the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS
Factor 1: Air Quality Data
The air quality analysis is an examination of ozone air quality monitoring data, including
the daily design value calculated for each area based on air quality data for a 3-year
period. Design values for 2005-2007 and 2006-20083 were analyzed for this factor.
Table 1-A: Ozone Design Values for the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long
Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area4
County
Fairfield, CT
Middlesex, CT
New Haven, CT
Bergen, NJ
Essex, NJ
Hudson, NJ
Hunterdon, NJ
Middlesex, NJ
Monmouth, NJ
Morris, NJ
Passaic, NJ
Somerset, NJ
Sussex, NJ
Union, NJ
Warren, NJ
Bronx, NY
Kings, NY
Nassau, NY
New York, NY
Queens, NY
Richmond, NY
Rockland, NY
Suffolk, NY
Westchester, NY
O3 2005 - 2007
Design Value (ppm)
Met NAAQS
(0.075 ppm) 20052007?
O3 2006 - 2008
Design Value
(ppm)
Met NAAQS
(0.075 ppm)
2006 - 2008?
0.094
0.092
0.093
0.089*
No Monitor
0.090
0.089
0.091
0.088
0.086
0.083
No Monitor
No Monitor
No Monitor
No Monitor
0.075
No Monitor
No Monitor
Not Available
0.079
0.089
No Monitor
0.091
0.091
No
No
No
No
N/A
No
No
No
No
No
No
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Yes
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
No
N/A
No
No
0.088
0.087
0.088
Not Available
No Monitor
0.086
0.086
0.088
0.086
0.086
0.079
No Monitor
No Monitor
No Monitor
No Monitor
0.076
No Monitor
No Monitor
Not Available
0.077
0.081
No Monitor
0.088
0.086
No
No
No
N/A
N/A
No
No
No
No
No
No
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
No
N/A
No
No
*Because a 2007 design value was not available, an average of 2005 - 2006 data is presented.
3
4
The 2006-2008 design values had not been certified at the time of this analysis
Source: NJDEP Bureau of Air Monitoring and USEPA
4
All of the monitors in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT)
nonattainment area violated the new 2008 ozone NAAQS of 0.075 ppm, with the
exception of Bronx, NY (for the 2005-2007 data). The highest design value in the
nonattainment area is located in Fairfield, CT. The highest design value in the
nonattainment area in New Jersey is located in Middlesex County. The preliminary
2006-2008 design values show an overall decrease in emissions. The most significant
decrease is in Richmond County, NY (0.009 ppm). The 2006-2008 design values show
decreased emissions for five of the New Jersey monitors. A 2006-2008 design value was
not available for Bergen County, and the design value stayed the same for Morris County.
Table 1-B: Ozone Design Values for the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City
(PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area5
County
Bucks, PA
Chester, PA
Delaware, PA
Montgomery, PA
Philadelphia, PA
Atlantic, NJ
Burlington, NJ
Camden, NJ
Cape May, NJ
Cumberland, NJ
Gloucester, NJ
Mercer, NJ
Ocean, NJ
Salem, NJ
Cecil, MD
Kent, DE
New Castle, DE
Sussex, DE
O3 2005 - 2007
Design Value (ppm)
Met NAAQS
(0.075 ppm) 20052007?
O3 2006 - 2008
Design Value
(ppm)
Met NAAQS
(0.075 ppm)
2006 - 2008?
0.092
0.085
0.085
0.086
0.091
0.081*
No Monitor
0.089
No Monitor
0.084
0.087
0.091
0.092
No Monitor
0.093
0.081
0.083
0.082
No
No
No
No
No
No
N/A
No
N/A
No
No
No
No
N/A
No
No
No
No
0.092
0.082
0.083
0.084
0.089
Not Available
No Monitor
0.087
No Monitor
0.082
0.087
0.087
0.087
No Monitor
0.090
0.081
0.080
0.080
No
No
No
No
No
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
No
No
No
No
N/A
No
No
No
No
*Because a 2007 design value was not available, an average of 2005 - 2006 data is presented.
All of the monitors in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD)
nonattainment area violated the new 2008 ozone NAAQS of 0.075 ppm. The highest
design value in the nonattainment area is located in Cecil County, MD. The preliminary
2006-2008 design values show an overall decrease in emissions. The most significant
decrease is the Ocean County, NJ monitor (0.005 ppm). The 2006-2008 design values
show decreased emissions for four of the New Jersey monitors. A 2006-2008 design
value was not available for Atlantic County, and the design value stayed the same for
Gloucester County.
5
Source: NJDEP Bureau of Air Monitoring and USEPA
5
Factor 2: Emissions Data
The following tables show total estimated inventories, excluding biogenic emissions (in
tons per year) for the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) and
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) nonattainment areas. (Data
Source: 2002 MANE-VU Modeling Inventory).
Table 2-A: Emissions in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJCT) Nonattainment Area
County
Fairfield, CT
Middlesex, CT
New Haven, CT
Bergen, NJ
Essex, NJ
Hudson, NJ
Hunterdon, NJ
Middlesex, NJ
Monmouth, NJ
Morris, NJ
Passaic, NJ
Somerset, NJ
Sussex, NJ
Union, NJ
Warren, NJ
Bronx, NY
Kings, NY
Nassau, NY
New York, NY
Queens, NY
Richmond, NY
Rockland, NY
Suffolk, NY
Westchester, NY
2002 NOx
(tons)
Proj. 2009
NOx
(tons)
31,712
7,757
29,642
26,840
24,594
22,047
6,613
26,835
17,925
15,708
9,836
10,365
3,799
18,850
5,250
16,056
28,296
38,626
40,284
42,659
10,099
14,165
64,398
48,464
22,151
4,478
19,069
16,862
14,123
10,866
3,942
16,704
11,291
9,586
6,019
6,535
2,495
11,746
3,065
11,101
21,083
24,814
30,330
27,580
7,607
9,072
39,672
20,357
02-09 %
change
-30%
-42%
-36%
-37%
-43%
-51%
-40%
-38%
-37%
-39%
-39%
-37%
-34%
-38%
-42%
-31%
-25%
-36%
-25%
-35%
-25%
-36%
-38%
-58%
2002
VOC
(tons)
36,184
10,500
34,472
34,703
24,583
16,206
9,700
33,188
26,452
24,046
16,648
15,987
10,268
22,723
7,825
23,174
39,632
45,411
38,921
42,825
12,388
9,820
73,451
33,071
Proj.
2009
VOC
(tons)
26,071
8,044
26,314
24,607
17,659
12,187
7,508
25,357
18,756
17,502
12,505
12,078
8,356
16,941
6,449
16,771
31,349
32,915
32,186
33,996
10,843
7,293
49,862
24,160
02-09 %
change
-28%
-23%
-24%
-29%
-28%
-25%
-23%
-24%
-29%
-27%
-25%
-24%
-19%
-25%
-18%
-28%
-21%
-28%
-17%
-21%
-12%
-26%
-32%
-27%
The projected NOx emissions decrease from 34%-51% in the New Jersey counties of the
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area. Projected VOC
emissions decreased from 18%-29% in these counties.
6
Table 2-B: Emissions in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DEMD) Nonattainment Area
County
Bucks, PA
Chester, PA
Delaware, PA
Montgomery, PA
Philadelphia, PA
Atlantic, NJ
Burlington, NJ
Camden, NJ
Cape May, NJ
Cumberland, NJ
Gloucester, NJ
Mercer, NJ
Ocean, NJ
Salem, NJ
Cecil, MD
Kent, DE
New Castle, DE
Sussex, DE
2002 NOx
(tons)
Proj.
2009 NOx
(tons)
20,195
18,779
23,838
25,341
31,157
8,331
18,522
15,372
8,118
6,971
14,515
25,520
10,421
6,622
5,037
10,336
31,544
16,883
14,400
13,642
20,642
17,906
24,315
5,719
12,233
9,201
7,291
5,919
9,494
9,957
7,300
4,964
2,841
8,554
23,104
18,001
02-09 %
change
-29%
-27%
-13%
-29%
-22%
-31%
-34%
-40%
-10%
-15%
-35%
-61%
-30%
-25%
-44%
-17%
-27%
7%
2002
VOC
(tons)
24,491
18,897
18,264
31,587
38,022
16,026
19,915
17,377
10,882
8,450
16,892
13,627
28,313
5,066
6,523
6,772
21,148
13,200
Proj.
2009
VOC
(tons)
20,787
15,498
15,199
26,162
31,477
12,247
14,860
12,882
9,141
6,782
14,409
9,829
21,383
4,122
5,320
5,490
16,180
10,438
02-09
%
change
-15%
-18%
-17%
-17%
-17%
-24%
-25%
-26%
-16%
-20%
-15%
-28%
-24%
-19%
-18%
-19%
-23%
-21%
The projected NOx emissions decreased from 10%-61% in the New Jersey counties in
the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City nonattainment area.
Projected VOC
emissions decrease from 15%-25% in these counties.
7
Location of Sources:
The following tables show the number of NOx and VOC reporting facilities in each
county in New Jersey. The information was gathered from the USEPA AirData system,
and is from the 2002 National Emission Inventory (NEI).6
Table 2-C: NOx and VOC Facilities in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long
Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area
County
Bergen, NJ
Essex, NJ
Hudson, NJ
Hunterdon, NJ
Middlesex, NJ
Monmouth, NJ
Morris, NJ
Passaic, NJ
Somerset, NJ
Sussex, NJ
Union, NJ
Warren, NJ
Number of
Facilities
60
52
37
13
108
18
37
29
28
6
60
11
Percent of
Total
Facilities
(in NJ)
Pollutant Emissions
(tpy)
9.04
7.83
5.57
1.96
16.27
2.71
5.57
4.37
4.22
0.90
9.04
1.66
Percent of Total
(NJ Emissions)
NOx
VOC
NOx
VOC
956
2,102
9,783
491
3,576
240
283
122
307
38.5
3,885
525
650
579
1,375
135
3,333
150
236
232
180
36.2
2,842
471
1.86
4.09
19.04
0.95
6.96
0.47
0.55
0.24
0.60
0.07
7.56
1.02
4.54
4.04
9.59
0.94
23.26
1.05
1.64
1.62
1.26
0.25
19.84
3.29
The largest number of NOx and VOC reporting facilities in New Jersey in the NY-NJ-CT
nonattainment area are in Middlesex County (108), while the smallest number of
facilities is in Sussex County (6). The county with the highest percentage of reported
NOx emissions is Hudson. The county with the highest percentage of reported VOC
emissions is Middlesex, followed closely by Union. The county with the lowest
percentage of reported NOx and VOC emissions is Sussex.
6
http://www.epa.gov/air/data/geosel.html (accessed 1/22/09)
8
Table 2-D: NOx and VOC Facilities in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City
(PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area
County
Atlantic, NJ
Burlington, NJ
Camden, NJ
Cape May, NJ
Cumberland, NJ
Gloucester, NJ
Mercer, NJ
Ocean, NJ
Salem, NJ
Number of
Facilities
13
35
35
8
21
33
28
17
15
Percent of
Total
Facilities
(in NJ)
1.96
5.27
5.27
1.20
3.16
4.97
4.22
2.56
2.26
Pollutant Emissions
(tpy)
Percent of Total
(NJ Emissions)
NOx
VOC
NOx
VOC
129
1,263
783
3,819
1,761
4,642
13,029
395
3,263
44.8
595
355
38.7
91.9
2,627
251
59.5
405
0.25
2.46
1.52
7.43
3.43
9.03
25.35
0.77
6.35
0.31
4.15
2.48
0.27
0.64
15.82
1.75
0.42
2.83
The largest number of NOx and VOC reporting facilities in New Jersey in the PA-NJ-DEMD nonattainment area are located in Burlington and Camden counties (both have 35
facilities), followed closely by Gloucester (33 facilities) and Mercer (28 facilities). The
county with the highest percentage of reported NOx emissions is Mercer. The county
with the highest percentage of reported VOC emissions is Gloucester. The county with
the lowest percentage of both NOx and VOC emissions is Atlantic, followed by Ocean.
9
Factor 3: Population/Population Density7
Table 3-A: 2007 Population/Population Density in the New York-Northern New
Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area
County
Fairfield, CT
Middlesex, CT
New Haven, CT
Bergen, NJ
Essex, NJ
Hudson, NJ
Hunterdon, NJ
Middlesex, NJ
Monmouth, NJ
Morris, NJ
Passaic, NJ
Somerset, NJ
Sussex, NJ
Union, NJ
Warren, NJ
Bronx, NY
Kings, NY
Nassau, NY
New York, NY
Queens, NY
Richmond, NY
Rockland, NY
Suffolk, NY
Westchester, NY
2007 Population
895,015
164,150
845,494
895,744
776,087
598,160
129,348
788,629
642,030
488,475
492,115
323,552
151,478
524,658
109,737
1,373,659
2,528,050
1,306,533
1,620,867
2,270,338
481,613
296,483
1,453,229
951,325
2007 Population Density
(population per sq mi)
1,430
445
1,396
3,825
6,146
12,812
301
2,546
1,360
1,042
2,656
1,062
291
5,080
307
32,683
35,803
4,557
70,595
20,783
8,236
1,702
1,593
2,198
The top three counties with the highest population in this nonattainment area are Kings,
Queens, and New York counties. The top three counties with the highest population
density in the nonattainment area are New York, Kings, and Bronx counties. The top
three New Jersey counties with the highest population in the nonattainment area are
Bergen, Middlesex, and Essex. The top three New Jersey counties with the highest
population density in the nonattainment area are Hudson, Essex and Union. The
population densities of the remaining New Jersey counties in the nonattainment area are
significantly lower. The three counties with the lowest population in the nonattainment
area are Warren, Hunterdon, and Sussex counties in New Jersey. The three counties with
the lowest population density in the nonattainment area are Sussex, Hunterdon, and
Warren counties in New Jersey.
7
Data Source for 2007 Population and Population Density: U.S. Census Bureau and New Jersey
Department of Labor and Workforce Development (US Census Data Accessed 1/2/09, Dept. of Labor Data
Accessed 1/5/09)
10
Table 3-B: 2007 Population/Population Density in the Philadelphia-WilmingtonAtlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area
County
Bucks, PA
Chester, PA
Delaware, PA
Montgomery, PA
Philadelphia, PA
Atlantic, NJ
Burlington, NJ
Camden, NJ
Cape May, NJ
Cumberland, NJ
Gloucester, NJ
Mercer, NJ
Ocean, NJ
Salem, NJ
Cecil, MD
Kent, DE
New Castle, DE
Sussex, DE
2007 Population
621,144
486,345
554,399
776,172
1,449,634
270,644
446,817
513,769
96,422
155,544
285,753
365,449
565,493
66,016
99,695
152,255
528,218
184,291
2007 Population Density
(population per sq mi)
1,023
643
3,010
1,607
10,731
482
555
2,311
378
318
880
1,618
889
195
286
258
1,239
197
The county of Philadelphia has the highest population and population density in the
nonattainment area. This indicates the likelihood of population-based emissions to
contribute to monitored violations.
To a much lesser extent, Camden County is also more urbanized than the majority of the
remaining counties in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City nonattainment area.
The top three New Jersey counties with the highest population in the nonattainment area
are Ocean, Camden, and Burlington.
The top three New Jersey counties with the
highest population density in the nonattainment area are Camden, Mercer, and Ocean.
The three counties with the lowest population in the nonattainment area are Salem and
Cape May counties in New Jersey and Cecil County in Maryland. The three counties
with the lowest population density in the nonattainment area are Sussex and Kent
counties in Delaware and Cecil County in Maryland.
11
Factor 4: Traffic and Commuting Patterns8
The total Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) for 2005 is provided for each county in millions
of miles. The analysis of this factor looks at the number of commuters who drive to
major counties within the metropolitan area and counties with the highest violation
monitors.
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area
Table 4-A shows the commuting patterns to the major counties in the nonattainment area,
as well as the New Jersey counties with the highest monitored design values (Hudson and
Middlesex). The largest number of commuters to the New Jersey counties in the New
York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area are from counties in the New
York City area.
Table 4-B shows the number of commuters from the New York counties in the
nonattainment area to the New Jersey counties in the nonattainment area. The three
highest numbers of commuters to New Jersey counties in the nonattainment area from
New York counties in the nonattainment area are from New York, Kings, and Rockland
counties. The top two New Jersey counties with the highest number of commuters from
New York counties in the nonattainment area are Bergen and Hudson. The remaining
New Jersey counties in the nonattainment area have a significantly lower number of
commuters from the New York counties in the nonattainment area. The two New Jersey
counties with the lowest number of commuters from the New York counties in the
nonattainment area are Sussex and Hunterdon counties.
The county with the highest VMT in the nonattainment area is Suffolk County, NY. The
two New Jersey counties with the highest VMT in the nonattainment area are Middlesex
and Bergen counties.
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area
Table 4-C shows commuting patterns to the major counties in the nonattainment area, as
well as the New Jersey counties with the highest monitored design values (Ocean and
Mercer) were evaluated.
8
Factor 4 Data sources:
2005 VMT Data: USEPA, http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/pm/docs/2005_vmt_county_level.xls (Accessed
1/14/09);
2000 US Census Journey to Work Data:
http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/commuting/index.html (Accessed 1/14/09)
USEPA, “Where People Work”: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/ozone/areas/misc/work_us.htm (Accessed
1/14/09)
12
The highest number of commuters to a New Jersey county from a county in another state
in the nonattainment area is from Bucks County, PA to Mercer County, NJ. There are
also a large number of commuters from Bucks County, PA to Burlington and Middlesex
counties.
A smaller, but still significant, number of commuters travel from Philadelphia County,
PA to Camden County, NJ. Philadelphia also has a large number of commuters to
Burlington County, NJ.
Table 4-D shows the number of commuters from the Pennsylvania counties in the
nonattainment area to the New Jersey counties in the nonattainment area. The two
highest numbers of commuters to New Jersey counties in the nonattainment area are from
Bucks and Philadelphia counties. The top three New Jersey counties with the highest
number of commuters from Pennsylvania counties in the nonattainment area are Mercer,
Camden and Burlington. The three New Jersey counties with the lowest number of
commuters from Pennsylvania counties in the nonattainment area are Ocean,
Cumberland, and Salem counties. Cape May County also has a low number of
commuters from the Pennsylvania counties in the nonattainment area.
Philadelphia County, PA has the highest VMT in the nonattainment area, followed by
Monmouth County, NJ.
Based on review of the commuting pattern data from both nonattainment areas, there is
not a significant pattern of commuting between the New York-Northern New JerseyLong Island nonattainment area and the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City
nonattainment area.
13
Table 4-A: Commuting Patterns in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area
County
Fairfield, CT
Middlesex, CT
New Haven, CT
Bergen, NJ
Essex, NJ
Hudson, NJ
Hunterdon, NJ
Middlesex, NJ
Monmouth, NJ
Morris, NJ
Passaic, NJ
Somerset, NJ
Sussex, NJ
Union, NJ
Warren, NJ
Bronx, NY
Kings, NY
Nassau, NY
New York, NY
Queens, NY
Richmond, NY
Rockland, NY
Suffolk, NY
Westchester, NY
VMT (Millions)
#Commuters to
New York, NY
#Commuters to Bronx,
NY
# Commuters to
Hudson, NJ
#Commuters to
Middlesex, NJ
#Commuters to New
Haven, CT
7,648.71
1,786.21
6,947.70
9,123.92
5,611.09
2,543.18
928.70
8,014.09
6,229.76
5,397.82
3,302.32
2,702.02
888.93
4,704.31
1,342.37
4,720.60
4,899.46
11,919.85
4,378.20
7,838.83
2,002.10
2,731.10
19,814.88
9,166.01
24,831
158
1,584
61,253
28,076
58,423
1,176
25,765
22,425
11,516
8,402
6,243
1,449
16,305
562
159,664
341,155
94,485
631,132
346,268
53,249
17,025
41,121
79,643
1,258
5
183
5,353
782
1,214
7
355
313
268
473
87
94
417
5
168,903
11,365
6,274
20,775
18,373
1,095
6,245
2,614
27,053
344
6
11
25,444
16,193
121,352
581
8,706
6,165
4,806
6,468
2,203
1,137
8,251
311
2,515
2,927
1,653
5,541
4,215
3,017
1,007
624
1,131
71
17
40
4,149
9,717
5,476
4,133
201,811
30,146
4,263
2,216
26,794
734
26,504
1,366
518
1,759
345
1,847
1,182
2,929
300
157
236
21,900
12,833
290,098
74
10
23
0
51
32
15
5
14
13
11
0
56
112
90
178
138
11
56
113
343
14
Table 4-B: Commuters from the New York Counties in the NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment Area to the New Jersey Counties in the
NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment Area
Bergen
Essex
Hudson
Hunterdon
Middlesex
Monmouth
Morris
Passaic
Somerset
Sussex
Union
New York Counties in the NY-NJ-CT
Nonattainment Area
New Jersey Counties in the NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment Area
Bronx
Kings
Nassau
New York
Queens
Richmond
Rockland
Suffolk
Westchester
4,366
3,345
1,337
7,258
4,275
1,081
12,687
564
3,221
1,141
2,341
426
2,876
1,944
1,621
866
338
614
2,515
5,927
1,653
5,541
4,215
3,017
1,007
624
1,131
23
76
5
106
10
73
17
7
11
518
1,759
345
1,847
1,182
2,929
300
157
236
69
579
88
291
253
586
38
87
52
328
812
235
1,413
613
589
867
146
362
569
579
207
940
677
343
1,141
102
400
146
515
76
442
253
582
118
69
93
30
37
4
219
10
48
14
33
12
586
1,567
187
967
780
1,486
350
180
327
Total
38,134
12,167
25,630
328
9,273
2,043
5,365
4,958
2,294
407
6,430
15
Total
10,291
17,537
4,563
21,900
14,212
12,355
17,405
2,307
6,459
Table 4-C: Commuting Patterns in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area
County
Bucks, PA
Chester, PA
Delaware, PA
Montgomery, PA
Philadelphia, PA
Atlantic, NJ
Burlington, NJ
Camden, NJ
Cape May, NJ
Cumberland, NJ
Gloucester, NJ
Mercer, NJ
Ocean, NJ
Salem, NJ
Cecil, MD
Kent, DE
New Castle, DE
Sussex, DE
VMT (Millions)
5,249.59
4,414.36
4,011.35
7,526.57
6,499.46
3,234.23
4,901.56
4,668.91
909.22
1,264.16
2,621.22
2,667.73
3,366.62
1,012.51
1,192.63
1,435.19
5,674.40
1,842.40
#Commuters to #Commuters to Delaware, #Commuters to Mercer,
Philadelphia, PA
PA
NJ
31,892
10,568
48,151
54,576
429,667
1,359
17,661
32,961
711
618
13,778
1,574
491
615
254
37
5,386
131
2,754
17,870
137,988
11,758
21,802
314
1,771
3,232
24
105
3,179
244
118
486
373
125
8,150
61
16
20,812
222
345
1,298
1,676
274
17,158
2,472
124
64
764
112,449
5,865
126
7
10
78
12
# Commuters to Ocean,
NJ
#Commuters to New
Castle, DE
220
23
10
13
86
822
2,042
359
98
21
227
667
120,741
6
8
0
13
30
493
12,976
9,002
1,201
1,856
175
597
1,286
109
171
1,662
139
45
3,258
14,059
6,058
209,742
1,119
Table 4-D: Commuters from the Pennsylvania Counties in the PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area to the New Jersey
Counties in the PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area
Burlington
Camden
Cape May
Cumberland
Gloucester
Mercer
Ocean
Salem
Total
Atlantic
Pennsylvania Counties in the PANJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area
New Jersey Counties in the PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area
Bucks
172
4,250
2,039
54
42
362
20,812
220
37
Chester
73
426
539
81
24
411
222
23
155
1,954
Delaware
231
1,306
2,287
118
103
1,251
345
10
245
5,896
Montgomery
181
1,559
1,844
95
66
405
1,298
13
59
5,520
Philadelphia
831
5,087
7,196
324
140
1,502
1,676
86
84
16,926
1,488
12,628
13,905
672
375
3,931
24,353
352
580
Total
17
27,988
Factor 5: Expected Growth9
The following tables show an analysis of population growth from 2000-2007 and VMT
growth from 1996-2005.
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area
Based upon analysis of this factor, Somerset County was identified as experiencing the
highest recent growth in the nonattainment area (from 2006-2007). The three New Jersey
counties with the highest population growth from 2000-2007 were Somerset, Warren, and
Hunterdon. Essex and Hudson counties experienced a slight reduction in population
growth for both 2006-2007 and 2000-2007.
Middlesex, Morris, Bergen, and Warren counties experienced significant VMT growth
from 1996-2005, while Hudson, Hunterdon, and Sussex counties experienced a
significant reduction in VMT.
9
Factor 5 Data Sources:
Census Data: US Census Bureau – http://www.census.gov and New Jersey Dept. of Labor:
http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/dmograph/est/mcd/density.htm (accessed 1/2/09);
1996 VMT Data: USEPA;
2005 VMT Data: USEPA, http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/pm/docs/2005_vmt_county_level.xls (Accessed
1/14/09);
18
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area
Based upon analysis of this factor, Gloucester County has been identified as the New
Jersey county in the nonattainment area experiencing the highest recent growth (from
2006-2007). Cape May County experienced a slight decrease in population. The top
three New Jersey counties with the highest growth from 2000-2007 were Gloucester,
Ocean, and Atlantic.
Burlington, Atlantic, and Salem counties experienced significant growth in VMT from
1996-2005 in comparison to the remainder of counties in the nonattainment area.
Mercer and Ocean counties experienced a low to moderate reduction in VMT.
19
Table 5-A: Expected Growth of Population and VMT in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT)
Nonattainment Area
County
2000
Population
2006
Population
2007
Population
Percent Growth
(2006-2007)
Fairfield, CT
Middlesex, CT
New Haven, CT
Bergen, NJ
Essex, NJ
Hudson, NJ
Hunterdon, NJ
Middlesex, NJ
Monmouth, NJ
Morris, NJ
Passaic, NJ
Somerset, NJ
Sussex, NJ
Union, NJ
Warren, NJ
Bronx, NY
Kings, NY
Nassau, NY
New York, NY
Queens, NY
Richmond, NY
Rockland, NY
Suffolk, NY
Westchester,
NY
882,567
155,071
824,008
884,118
792,305
608,975
121,989
750,162
615,301
470,212
490,377
297,490
144,170
522,541
102,433
1,332,650
2,465,326
1,334,544
1,537,195
2,229,379
443,728
286,753
1,419,369
923,459
893,987
163,372
843,441
893,217
778,333
599,755
129,197
783,371
641,309
487,371
491,956
320,070
151,165
524,816
109,431
1,371,353
2,523,047
1,312,756
1,612,630
2,264,661
478,876
295,927
1,456,783
948,080
895,015
164,150
845,494
895,744
776,087
598,160
129,348
788,629
642,030
488,475
492,115
323,552
151,478
524,658
109,737
1,373,659
2,528,050
1,306,533
1,620,867
2,270,338
481,613
296,483
1,453,229
951,325
0.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
0.1%
0.7%
0.1%
0.2%
0.0%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
-0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.6%
0.2%
-0.2%
0.3%
20
Percent
Growth (20002007)
1.41%
5.85%
2.61%
1.31%
-2.05%
-1.78%
6.03%
5.13%
4.34%
3.88%
0.35%
8.76%
5.07%
0.41%
7.13%
3.08%
2.54%
-2.10%
5.44%
1.84%
8.54%
3.39%
2.39%
3.02%
VMT 1996
(Millions)
VMT 2005
(Millions)
7,233
1,298
6,275
5,993
5,643
4,012
1,413
5,073
4,407
3,531
3,102
2,097
1,306
3,582
896
6,329
12,100
6,800
7,824
10,261
1,995
1,406
6,913
4,895
7,649
1,786
6,948
9,124
5,611
2,543
929
8,014
6,230
5,398
3,302
2,702
889
4,704
1,342
4,721
4,899
11,920
4,378
7,839
2,002
2,731
19,815
9,166
Percent VMT
Growth (19962005)
5.75%
37.61%
10.72%
52.24%
-0.57%
-36.61%
-34.27%
57.98%
41.36%
52.87%
6.46%
28.85%
-31.93%
31.33%
49.82%
-25.41%
-59.51%
75.29%
-44.04%
-23.61%
0.36%
94.25%
186.63%
87.25%
Table 5-B: Expected Growth of Population and VMT in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD)
Nonattainment Area
County
2000
Population
2006
Population
2007
Population
Percent Growth
(2006-2007)
VMT 1996
(Millions)
VMT 2005
(Millions)
0.3%
-1.5%
0.1%
0.3%
Percent
Growth (20002007)
3.93%
10.49%
0.64%
3.48%
3,818
3,105
3,638
4,818
5,250
4,414
4,011
7,527
Percent VMT
Growth 19962005
37.50%
42.17%
10.26%
56.22%
Bucks, PA
Chester, PA
Delaware, PA
Montgomery,
PA
Philadelphia,
PA
Atlantic, NJ
Burlington, NJ
Camden, NJ
Cape May, NJ
Cumberland, NJ
Gloucester, NJ
Mercer, NJ
Ocean, NJ
Salem, NJ
Cecil, MD
Kent, DE
New Castle, DE
Sussex, DE
597,635
433,501
550,864
750,097
619,407
486,345
553,732
773,866
621,144
478,990
554,399
776,172
1,517,550
1,453,212
1,449,634
-0.2%
-4.48%
10,420
6,499
-37.63%
252,552
423,391
508,932
102,326
146,438
254,673
350,761
510,916
64,285
85,951
126,697
500,265
156,638
269,924
447,552
513,510
97,613
154,175
281,314
364,649
561,505
65,842
98,674
147,973
524,735
180,039
270,644
446,817
513,769
96,422
155,544
285,753
365,449
565,493
66,016
99,695
152,255
528,218
184,291
0.3%
-0.2%
0.1%
-1.2%
0.9%
1.6%
0.2%
0.7%
0.3%
1.0%
2.9%
0.7%
2.4%
7.16%
5.53%
0.95%
-5.77%
6.22%
12.20%
4.19%
10.68%
2.69%
15.99%
20.17%
5.59%
17.65%
2,223
3,299
4,102
673
1,096
2,055
3,343
3,624
691
1,035
1,371
4,687
1,586
3,234
4,902
4,669
909
1,264
2,621
2,668
3,367
1,013
1,193
1,435
5,674
1,842
45.49%
48.58%
13.82%
35.10%
15.34%
27.55%
-20.20%
-7.10%
46.53%
15.23%
4.68%
21.07%
16.17%
21
Factor 6: Meteorology
This factor did not play a significant role in the decision making process for either
nonattainment area. “Climatic Data for the United States”, prepared by NOAA and dated
November 1998 was analyzed for this factor. The data analyzed is a summary of annual
climatic wind data for the years 1930-1996.
Table 6-A: Prevailing Wind Direction in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long
Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area
Location
County
Bridgeport, CT
Newark, NJ
Islip, NY
Central Park, NY
JFK Airport, NY
LaGuardia Airport, NY
Suffolk County Air
Force Base, NY
Fairfield
Essex
Suffolk
New York
Queens
Queens
Suffolk
Prevailing Wind
Direction
WSW
NW
WNW
NW
S
NE
SW
Mean Wind Speed
(mph)
12
10
9
8
12
13
9
Peak Gust (mph)
69
83
N/A
64
71
77
76
Based on an analysis of this factor, the prevailing wind direction in the New YorkNorthern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area is predominantly from the
northwest and southwest.
Table 6-B: Prevailing Wind Direction in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City
(PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area
Location
Philadelphia, PA
Atlantic City Airport,
NJ
Trenton, NJ
McGuire Air Force
Base, NJ
Dover Air Force Base,
DE
Wilmington, DE
County
Mean Wind Speed
(mph)
10
10
Peak Gust (mph)
Philadelphia
Atlantic
Prevailing Wind
Direction
SW
WNW
Mercer
Burlington
S
WNW
9
7
64
87
Kent
SSW
7
85
New Castle
WNW
9
56
69
81
Based on an analysis of this factor, the prevailing wind direction in the PhiladelphiaWilmington-Atlantic City nonattainment area is from the northwest and southwest.
22
Factor 7: Geography/Topography
There are no geographical or topographical boundaries limiting air movements within the
airshed in the areas.
Factor 8: Jurisdictional Boundaries
The current jurisdictional boundaries for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard nonattainment
areas are adequate for the new 2008 ozone NAAQS nonattainment areas. The areas
include:
For the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) nonattainment area,
Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset,
Sussex, Union, and Warren counties in New Jersey; Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York,
Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk, and Westchester counties in New York; and
Fairfield, Middlesex, and New Haven counties in Connecticut.
For the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area,
Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Ocean, and
Salem counties in New Jersey; Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelphia
counties in Pennsylvania; Kent, New Castle, and Sussex counties in Delaware; and Cecil
County in Maryland.
Factor 9: Level of Control of Emission Sources
This factor did not play a significant role in the decision making process. Emissions of
NOx and VOC will continue to decrease because of State and Federal efforts that include
Ozone Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) Rules and the Federal Clean
Air Interstate Rule (CAIR).
Additionally, New Jersey’s PM2.5 statewide RACT rules are in the process of being
updated which will result in additional reductions of direct PM2.5 and its precursors, SO2
and NOx, from major source categories. New Jersey is also relying upon the USEPA to
provide sufficient emission reductions from upwind sources in order to bring the multistate nonattainment areas into attainment with the 2008 ozone health standards and
maintain them. Emissions from upwind states are discussed further in Factor 10.
23
Factor 10: Modeling of Regional Ozone Transport
Modeling conducted by the USEPA as a part of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) in
2005 demonstrates that ozone transport constitutes a large portion of projected
nonattainment in most eastern areas in 2010.10 Tables 10-A and 10-B show the CAIR
results for the counties that were modeled in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long
Island (NY-NJ-CT) and Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD)
Nonattainment Areas.
Table 10-A: Percent Contribution to 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment due to
Transport from Upwind States in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island
(NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area
2010 Base Nonattainment
Counties
Fairfield, CT
Middlesex, CT
New Haven, CT
Bergen, NJ
Hunterdon, NJ
Middlesex, NJ
Monmouth, NJ
Morris, NJ
Richmond, NY
Suffolk, NY
Westchester, NY
2010 Base 8-Hour Ozone
(ppb)
92
90
91
86
89
92
86
86
87
91
85
Percent of 8-Hour
Ozone due to
Transport
80%
93%
95%
38%
26%
62%
65%
63%
55%
52%
56%
Greater than 50% of ozone is due to transport in 9 of the 11 modeled counties in the New
York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area.
10
Technical Support Document for the Final Clean Air Interstate Rule – Air Quality Modeling. USEPA.
March 2005.
24
Table 10-B: Percent Contribution to 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment due to
Transport from Upwind States in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PANJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area
2010 Base Nonattainment
Counties
Bucks, PA
Chester, PA
Montgomery, PA
Philadelphia, PA
Camden, NJ
Gloucester, NJ
Mercer, NJ
Ocean, NJ
Cecil, MD
New Castle, DE
2010 Base 8-Hour Ozone
(ppb)
94
85
88
90
91
91
95
100
89
85
Percent of 8-Hour
Ozone due to
Transport
35%
39%
47%
55%
57%
62%
36%
82%
35%
37%
Greater than 50% of ozone is due to transport in 4 of the 10 modeled counties in the
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City nonattainment area. The modeled county in the
nonattainment area with the highest percentage of ozone due to transport is Ocean
County, NJ (82%).
The CAIR modeling conducted by the USEPA also included information on the upwind
areas contributing to downwind nonattainment in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR)
counties. Tables 10-C and 10-D summarize the information from the CAIR modeling
(Table VI-5).
25
Table 10-C: Upwind States That Make a Significant Contribution to 8-Hour Ozone
in Each Modeled Downwind Nonattainment County in the New York-Northern New
Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area11
Downwind County
Fairfield, CT
Hunterdon, NJ
MD/
DC
MA
MD/
DC
MD/
DC
DE
Middlesex, NJ
DE
Monmouth, NJ
DE
Morris, NJ
DE
Richmond, NY
MD/
DC
CT
Middlesex, CT
New Haven, CT
Bergen, NJ
Suffolk, NY
Westchester, NY
NJ
NY
OH
Upwind States
PA
VA
WV
NJ
NJ
NJ
NY
OH
OH
PA
PA
VA
VA
WV
MI
OH
PA
VA
WV
MD/
DC
MD/
DC
MD/
DC
MD/
DC
MI
OH
PA
VA
WV
MI
NY
OH
PA
VA
WV
MI
NY
OH
PA
VA
WV
MI
NY
OH
PA
VA
WV
NJ
PA
VA
WV
MD/
DC
OH
MI
NC
NJ
OH
PA
DE
VA
WV
MD/
NJ
PA
VA
WV
DC
Note: Upwind States are listed alphabetically and not according to order of influence.
The CAIR modeling demonstrates that the counties in the New York-Northern New
Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area are influenced by several states outside of the
nonattainment area. Some of the upwind states are located outside of the OTR, which
shows that ozone transport is an issue on a broad regional scale.
11
Based on several contribution metrics evaluated by the USEPA to show the magnitude of the
contribution, the frequency of the contributions, and the relative amount of the total contribution.
26
Table 10-D: Upwind States That Make a Significant Contribution to 8-Hour Ozone
in Each Modeled Downwind Nonattainment County in the PhiladelphiaWilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area12
Downwind County
Bucks, PA
DE
Chester, PA
DE
Montgomery, PA
DE
Philadelphia, PA
DE
Camden, NJ
DE
Gloucester, NJ
DE
Mercer, NJ
DE
Ocean, NJ
DE
Cecil, MD
New Castle, DE
MD/
DC
MD/
DC
MD/
DC
MD/
DC
MD/
DC
MD/
DC
MD/
DC
MD/
DC
OH
MI
MI
NJ
Upwind States
OH
VA
WV
MI
NJ
OH
VA
WV
NJ
OH
WV
MI
NJ
OH
VA
WV
MI
OH
PA
VA
WV
MI
OH
PA
VA
WV
MI
NY
OH
PA
VA
WV
MI
NY
OH
PA
VA
WV
MI
PA
VA
WV
MD/
NC
OH
PA
VA
WV
DC
Note: Upwind States are listed alphabetically and not according to order of influence.
The CAIR modeling demonstrates that the counties in the Philadelphia-WilmingtonAtlantic City nonattainment area are influenced by several states outside of the
nonattainment area. Some of the upwind states are located outside of the OTR, which
shows that ozone transport is an issue on a broad regional scale.
12
Based on several contribution metrics evaluated by the USEPA to show the magnitude of the
contribution, the frequency of the contributions, and the relative amount of the total contribution.
27