Electricity Technology Roadmap: 2003 Summary and Synthesis
Power Delivery and Markets
Electricity Technology Roadmap: 2003 Summary and Synthesis
Power Delivery and Markets
1009321
November 2003
EPRI
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Copyright © 2003 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Table of Contents
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
Executive Summary
1
Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
9
The Vision: Power Delivery Systems and Power Markets of the Future
21
Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the
Power Delivery Infrastructure
27
Technologies That Foster a Revolution in Consumer Services
43
Technologies That Boost Economic Productivity and Prosperity
51
Conclusions
63
For More Information
65
References
67
I
Executive Summary
The Electricity Roadmap Initiative is an ongoing collaborative exploration of the opportunities
for electricity-based innovation over the next 20 years and beyond. Thus far, over 150 organizations have participated with EPRI and its members in shaping a comprehensive vision of how to
further increase electricity’s value to society.
The Vision
In this report, the vision of the power delivery system and electricity markets of the future is
described, along with barriers that need to be overcome and technologies that must be developed
and deployed to achieve this vision. The envisioned power delivery system and electricity
markets will enable achievement of the following goals:
• Extremely reliable delivery of the high quality “digital-grade” power needed by a growing
number of critical electricity end-uses.
• Availability of a wide range of “always-on, price-smart” electricity-related consumer and
business services, including low-cost, high value energy services, that stimulate the economy
and offer consumers greater control over energy usage and expenses.
• Physical and information assets that are protected from man-made and natural threats, and a
power delivery infrastructure that can be quickly restored in the event of attack.
• Minimized environmental and societal impact by improving use of the existing infrastructure;
promoting development, implementation, and use of energy efficient equipment and systems;
and stimulating the development, implementation, and use of clean distributed energy
resources and efficient combined heat and power technologies.
• Improved productivity growth rates, increased economic growth rates, and decreased electricity intensity (ratio of electricity use to gross domestic product, GDP).
Barriers to Achieving This Vision
To achieve this vision of the power delivery system and electricity markets, accelerated public/
private research, design, and development (RD&D), investment, and careful policy analysis are
needed to overcome the following barriers and vulnerabilities:
• The present electric power delivery infrastructure was not designed to meet, and is unable to
meet, the needs of a digital society—a society that relies on microprocessor-based devices in
homes, offices, commercial buildings, industrial facilities, and vehicles.
• Investment in expansion and maintenance of this infrastructure is lagging, while electricity
demand grows and will continue to grow.
• This infrastructure is not being expanded or enhanced to meet the demands of wholesale
competition in the electric power industry, and does not facilitate connectivity between
consumers and markets.
• Under continued stress, the present infrastructure cannot support levels of power security,
quality, reliability, and availability (SQRA) needed for economic prosperity.
• The existing power delivery infrastructure is vulnerable to human error, natural disasters, and
intentional physical and cyber attack.
• The infrastructure does not adequately accommodate emerging beneficial technologies, including distributed energy resources and energy storage, nor does it facilitate enormous business
opportunities in retail electricity/information services.
Enabling Technologies
“Gold plating” the present power delivery system (e.g., simply pouring more money into the
power delivery system in the form of duplicative or redundant facilities) is not a feasible way to
provide the level of SQRA that is required. Meeting the energy requirements of society will
require the application of a combination of advanced technologies.
EPRI has developed the following list of critical enabling technologies that are needed to move
toward realizing the vision of the power delivery infrastructure and electricity markets:
• Automation: the heart of a “smart power delivery system”
• Communication architecture: the foundation of the power delivery system of the future
• Distributed energy resources and storage development and integration
• Power electronics-based controllers
• Power market tools
• Technology innovation in electricity use
These technologies, which are a subset of those discussed in this report, are synergistic (i.e., they
support realization of multiple aspects of the vision). Aspects of some of these enabling technologies are under development today. However, a primary conclusion of this report is that each
of these technologies calls for either continued emphasis or initiation of efforts soon in order to
meet the energy needs of society in the next 20 years and beyond.
Automation: The Heart of a “Smart Power Delivery System.” Automation will play a key role in
providing high levels of power SQRA throughout the electricity value chain of the near future.
To a consumer, automation may mean receiving hourly electricity price signals, which can
automatically adjust home thermostat settings via a smart consumer portal. To a distribution
system operator, automation may mean automatic “islanding” of a distribution feeder with local
distributed energy resources in an emergency. To a power system operator, automation means a
self-healing, self-optimizing smart power delivery system that automatically anticipates and
2
I: Executive Summary
quickly responds to disturbances to minimize their impact, minimizing or eliminating power
disruptions altogether. According to the Energy Future Coalition, the smart power delivery
system could “boost the economy, reduce the impact of energy production and consumption on
the environment, and enhance the security of the network.” [1]
This smart power delivery system will also enable a revolution in consumer services via sophisticated retail markets. Once communications and electricity infrastructures are integrated, realizing the ability to connect electricity consumers more fully with electronic communications will
depend on evolving a consumer portal to function as a “front door” to consumers and their intelligent equipment. The portal would sit between consumers’ “in-building” communications network
and wide area “access” networks. The portal would enable two-way, secure and managed communications between consumers’ equipment and energy service and/or communications entities.
Performing the work closely related to routers and gateways, the portal would add management
features (e.g., expanded choice, real-time pricing, detailed billing and consumption information,
wide area communications, and distributed computing) to enable energy industry networked
applications. Data management and network access based on consumer systems could consist of
in-building networks and networked equipment that integrate building energy management,
distributed energy resources, and demand response capability with utility distribution operations.
Communication Architecture. To realize the vision of the smart power delivery system, a standardized communications architecture must first be developed and overlaid on today’s power
delivery system. This “integrated energy and communications system architecture” (IECSA) will
be an open standards-based systems architecture for a data communications and distributed
computing infrastructure. Several technical elements will constitute this infrastructure including,
but not limited to, data networking, communications over a wide variety of physical media, and
embedded computing technologies. IECSA will enable the automated monitoring and control of
power delivery systems in real time, support deployment of technologies that increase the
control and capacity of power delivery systems, enhance the performance of end-use digital
devices that consumers employ, and enable consumer connectivity, thereby revolutionizing the
value of consumer services.
Distributed Energy Resources and Storage Development and Integration. Small power generation
and storage devices distributed throughout—and seamlessly integrated with—the power delivery
system (“distributed energy resources”) and bulk storage technologies offer potential solutions to
several challenges that the electric power industry currently faces. These challenges include the
needs to strengthen the power delivery infrastructure, provide high quality power, facilitate
provision of a range of services to consumers, and provide consumers lower cost, higher SQRA
power. However, various impediments stand in the way of widespread realization of these
benefits. A key challenge for distributed generation and storage technologies, for example, is to
develop ways of seamlessly integrating these devices into the power delivery system, and then
dispatching them so that they can contribute to overall reliability and power quality. The initial
challenge for bulk storage technologies is to identify ways of effectively demonstrating the value
proposition for these systems in a restructured industry. Both distributed storage and bulk
storage technologies address the inefficiencies inherent in the fact that, unlike other commodities, almost all electricity today must be used at the instant it is produced.
I: Executive Summary
3
Power Electronics-Based Controllers. Power electronics-based controllers, based on solid-state
devices, offer control of the power delivery system with the speed and accuracy of a microprocessor, but at a power level 500 million times higher. These controllers allow utilities and
power system operators to direct power along specific corridors—meaning that the physical
flow of power can be aligned with commercial power transactions. In many instances, power
electronics-based controllers can increase power transfer capacity by up to 50% and, by eliminating power bottlenecks, extend the market reach of competitive power generation. On distribution systems, converter-based power electronics technology can also help solve power quality
problems such as voltage sags, voltage flicker, and harmonics. However, fully realizing these
benefits requires advances in silicon-based voltage-sourced converters, devices based on materials
other than silicon, and integrated control of multiple controller devices.
Power Market Tools. To accommodate changes in retail power markets worldwide, market-based
mechanisms are needed that offer incentives to market participants in ways that benefit all
stakeholders, facilitate efficient planning for expansion of the power delivery infrastructure,
effectively allocate risk, and connect consumers to markets. For example, service providers need
a new methodology for the design of retail service programs for electricity consumers. At the
same time, consumers need help devising ways they can participate profitably in markets by
providing dispatchable or curtailable electric loads, especially by providing reserves. And in the
absence of long-held regulatory compacts, market participants critically need new ways to
manage financial risk. To enable the efficient operation of both wholesale and retail markets,
rapid, open access to data is essential. Hence, development of data and communications standards for emerging markets is needed. Further, to test the viability of various wholesale and
retail power market design options before they are put into practice, power market simulation
tools are needed to help stakeholders establish equitable power markets.
Technology Innovation in Electricity Use. Technology innovation in electricity use is a cornerstone
of global economic progress. In the U.S., for example, the growth in GDP over the past 50 years
has been accompanied by improvements in energy intensity and labor productivity. Improved
energy-use efficiencies also provide environmental benefits. Development and adoption of
technologies in the following areas are needed:
• Industrial electrotechnologies and motor systems
• Improvement in indoor air quality
• Advanced lighting
• Automated electronic equipment recycling processes
In addition, widespread use of electric transportation solutions—including hybrid and fuel cell
vehicles—will reduce petroleum consumption, reduce the U.S. trade deficit, enhance U.S. GDP,
reduce emissions, and provide other benefits.
An Investment in the Infrastructure
Developing these technologies will require a significant, sustained R&D investment. But making
such an investment in a critical industry is not unprecedented. According to a June 2003 report
4
I: Executive Summary
by the National Science Foundation, R&D spending in the U.S. as a percent of net sales was
about 10% in the computer and electronic products industry and 12% for the communication
equipment industry in 1999. Conversely, R&D investment by electric utilities was more than an
order of magnitude lower—less than 0.5% during the same period. R&D investment in most
other industries is also significantly greater than that in the electric power industry.[2]
A recently conducted analysis examines the potential payoff to society of an “enhanced productivity” scenario, which relies on implementation of the enabling technologies described in this
report, as well as enabling technologies that address other Roadmap destinations. Compared to a
business-as-usual scenario, the study concluded that the payoff to society in 2020 of rapidly
developing and deploying the technology of an enhanced electricity infrastructure would include
the following:
• A 5–10% reduction in electricity consumption
• A 20% reduction in delivered electricity intensity
• A 13–25% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions
• A 25% increase in worker productivity growth rate
• A 10% increase in real GDP
• A 75% reduction in cost of power disturbances to businesses
The incremental economic growth of the “high productivity” scenario compared to business as
usual represents an increase of $1.8 trillion in real GDP (U.S. dollars).
The Roadmap Process
In taking the lead in this Roadmap endeavor, EPRI is acting as the catalyst of an ongoing process
of engagement, consensus building, and collaboration among the diverse stakeholders inside and
outside the electricity enterprise. This effort will not be completed in 2003; by definition, the
Roadmap is an iterative process that requires consistent attention and refinement. Because of the
fundamental nature of the destinations envisioned, the Roadmap transcends short-term goals and
peers 20 years and beyond into the future. Further, the Roadmap does not consider technology
in a vacuum, but instead also addresses relevant social, economic, and regulatory interrelationships. While some of the examples in this document illustrate challenges and projections in
North America, many of the lessons learned in this Roadmap process are equally applicable in
developed nations across the globe.
The Roadmap translates the described vision into a set of interdependent goals or “destinations”
and ultimately the needed RD&D pathways to reach these destinations. The following Roadmap
destinations reflect the convergence of opportunities for a more prosperous, stable, and sustainable world with the technological capabilities for their achievement:
• Strengthening the power delivery system infrastructure
• Enabling a revolution in consumer services
• Boosting economic productivity and prosperity
I: Executive Summary
5
• Resolving the energy/environment conflict
• Managing the global sustainability challenge
This document focuses on the first three destinations listed above. These destinations involve
one of the most fundamental of electric functions: moving electricity from the point of generation to the point of use.
EPRI, in consultation with a broad range of stakeholders, has identified 15 critically important
“difficult challenges” that must be met in order to reach these destinations. While not an
exhaustive list of the challenges that must be overcome, these 15 difficult challenges are crucial
to success, and thus, are the focus of current Roadmap efforts. Of the 15 difficult challenges
identified for focus, nine must be met to achieve the three destinations that are addressed in
this report. Together, these destinations and difficult challenges create a unified picture of
critical goals and challenges for the electricity and energy-related industries in the 21st century.
Figure 1-1 illustrates these 15 difficult challenges and the five destinations. Figure 1-2 and
Table 1-1 show the relationship between the six critical enabling technologies listed on
page 2 and the nine difficult challenges that are relevant to the power delivery system and
electricity markets.
EPRI invites the participation of energy companies, universities, government and regulatory
agencies, technology companies, associations, public advocacy organizations, and other
interested parties throughout the world in refining the vision and building the Roadmap.
Only through collaboration can the resources and commitment be marshaled to reach
these destinations.
Organization of This Report
Section II of this report summarizes vulnerabilities in the present power delivery system and
market infrastructure. Section III then describes the potential future of this infrastructure in
2020. Sections IV, V, and VI, provide overviews of key enabling technologies that are necessary
to achieve the three destinations (strengthening the power delivery system infrastructure,
enabling a revolution in consumer services, and boosting economic productivity and prosperity).
Related Documents
This 2003 Summary and Synthesis report on Power Delivery and Markets is derived from
the overall Electricity Technology Roadmap effort. For more information on the Electricity
Technology Roadmap, refer to the following document:
• Electricity Technology Roadmap: 1999 Summary and Synthesis, EPRI report CI-112677-V1,
July 1999.
EPRI is also planning to publish Electricity Technology Roadmap: 2003 Summary and
Synthesis.
6
I: Executive Summary
Generation
portfolio
Carbon
sequestration
Energy/
Environment
Conflict
Asset Management
DC7: Electric drive
transportation
DC5:
Enhanced
markets
DC6: Infrastructure
for a digital society
DC8: Digital
energy
efficiency
DC2:
Power quality
Global
electrification
DC9:
Enabling
technologies
DC4:
Storage
DC1:
Transmission
capacity
DC3:
Grid security
Boost
Economic
Productivity
and Prosperity
Global
Sustainable
Growth
Revolution
in Consumer
Services
Strengthen the
Power Delivery
Infrastructure
Water quality
and availability
Improved Communication of Technology and Policy Issues
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
DC1: Increasing transmission capacity, grid control, and stability,
while improving reliability
Figure 1-1. The three destinations (power delivery infrastructure, customer services, and
economic growth) attainable in the mid-term future, as well as the relevant
difficult challenges, are the focus of this report.
Automation:
the heart of a smart
power delivery system
DC9: Advances in enabling
technology platforms
DC2/DC6: Improving power quality and
reliability for precision electricity users; creating
the infrastructure for a digital society
Power electronicsbased controllers
Distributed energy
resources and storage
development and
integration
Technology
innovation in
electricity use
DC8: High-efficiency end uses
of electricity
DC7: Development of electricity-based
transportation system
DC4: Exploiting the strategic value of
bulk energy storage technologies
Power market tools
Communication
architecture: foundation
of power delivery system
of the future
DC5: Transforming power markets
DC3: Increasing robustness, resilience,
and security of the energy infrastructure
Difficult
challenge
Synergistic
technology
Figure 1-2. The six critical enabling technologies feed into the nine difficult challenges (DCs)
that are relevant to the power delivery infrastructure and power markets.
I: Executive Summary
7
Table 1–1
Illustration of how the six critical enabling technologies (shown across the top)
support the nine difficult challenges (shown in the left column).
SYNERGISTIC TECHNOLOGIES
DIFFICULT
CHALLENGES (DC)
Automation: The
Heart of a Smart
Power Delivery
System
DC1: Increasing
transmission capacity,
grid control, and
stability, while
improving reliability
Automation
enables selfdiagnosis,
self-healing,
electronic
control
DC2: Improving
power quality and
reliability for
precision electricity
users
Automation
provides SQRA
power
DC3: Increasing
robustness,
resilience, and
security of
the energy
infrastructure
Automation
provides the
security portion
of SQRA
Communication
Architecture: The
Foundation of
the Power
Delivery System
of the Future
Distributed
Energy
Resources (DER)
and Storage
Development
and Integration
Power
ElectronicsBased
Controllers
(PEBCs)
Communication
architecture
overlaid on
today’s power
delivery system
Integration of
DER needed for
stability
PEBCs improve
capacity, control,
and stability
DER, storage
improves power
quality
PEBCs improve
power quality
on distribution
systems
Secure
communications
DC6: Creating the
infrastructure for a
digital society
Automation is
critical component of
infrastructure for
digital society
I: Executive Summary
Integration of
DER needed to
support digital
society
PEBCs improve
power quality
on distribution
systems
Embedded
resilience to PQ
disturbances in
end-use devices
Transportation:
key electricity
use technology
Cornerstone of
economic
progress
DC8: High-efficiency
end uses of electricity
8
Retail and
wholesale tools
needed to
transform
markets
Electric
transportation is
mobile DER
DC7: Development of
electricity-based
transportation system
CD9: Advances in
enabling technology
platforms
Distributed and
bulk storage
facilitates
market offerings
Communication
architecture
connects
consumers to
markets
DC5: Transforming
power markets
Technology
Innovation in
Electricity Use
DER can
back up the
power delivery
system during
disturbances
Bulk storage
increases
system
utilization
DC4: Exploiting the
strategic value of
bulk energy storage
technologies
Power
Market
Tools
Advanced
sensors enable
automation
II
Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
This section provides an overview of the role of electricity in society and explains how the
infrastructure that provides that electricity is becoming increasingly vulnerable due to a variety
of stresses.
Role of Electricity
Over the past century, the role of electric power has grown steadily in both scope and importance. Developments in key digital technologies such as microprocessors, electric lighting, motor
drive systems, computers, and telecommunications have continuously reshaped life, as well as
commercial and industrial productivity. In fact, much of the phenomenal economic growth and
productivity growth in the latter half of the 1990s was due to development and deployment of
microprocessor-based equipment and systems.[3] These technology advances have steadily
extended the precision and efficiency attributes of electricity. As a result, electricity has gained a
progressively larger share of total energy use in the United States for example, even as the
energy intensity of the U.S. economy (energy per dollar of GDP) has declined (see Figures 2-1
and 2-2).
Today, the use of electricity is indispensable to modern life. Yet at the same time, it has become
so pervasive that it is “transparent” to most users, at least until there is an outage. Were it
15
Electricity
Index (1 = 1950)
12
9
GDP
6
Energy
3
0
1950
2000
Figure 2-1. Comparative growth in U.S. GDP, energy, and electricity.
2050
possible to “unplug” the whole of U.S. society, for example, from its electricity supply for a few
hours, and assess the impact, the full measure of electricity’s role in the U.S. economy would
become evident. Few processes other than heating, transportation, and agriculture would continue to function, and even then poorly, constituting a loss of about $1 billion per hour. The
entire economy would stop.
1.4
Energy use
per capita
1.2
Index (1970 = 1)
1.0
0.8
Energy use
per dollar
of GDP
0.6
0.4
0.2
History
Projections
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2025
Figure 2-2. Energy use per capita and per dollar of GDP, 1970–2025.[4]
In the coming decades, electricity’s share of total energy is expected to continue to grow, as more
efficient and intelligent processes are introduced into industry, businesses, homes, and transportation. Electricity-based innovation—ranging from plasmas to microprocessors—is essential for
enabling sustained economic growth in the 21st century.
Strain on the Aging Power Delivery System
The North American power delivery system exemplifies the critical nature of electric power
delivery systems throughout the world. It represents an enormous investment—transmission and
distribution plant-in-service was valued at $358 billion in 2000 (U.S. dollars). With its millions
of relays, controls, and other components, it is the most complex machine ever invented. The
National Academy of Engineering has hailed the North American power delivery system as the
supreme engineering achievement of the 20th century because of its ingenious engineering,
catalytic role for other technologies, and ubiquitous impact in improving quality of life down to
the household level.
Yet today’s electric power delivery system is largely based on technology developed in the 1950s
or before and installed over the last 30–50 years. And the strain on this aging system is beginning to show. Figure 2-3 shows how outages on this system have affected electricity consumers.
Generally, this plot shows that a relatively small number of consumers experience a large
number of outages in the U.S.; conversely, outages that affect a large number of consumers are
10
II: Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
quite rare. The data point in the lower right-hand corner of Figure 2-3 for example, separated
from the other data points, represents the wide area outage of August 10, 1996, which affected
about 7 million consumers in 11 western U.S. states and two Canadian provinces.
However, this plot also indicates that outages may be on the rise. Based on an EPRI analysis of
data in the North American Electric Reliability Council’s Disturbance Analysis Working Group
(DAWG) database, 41% more outages affected 50,000 or more consumers in the second half of
the 1990s than in the first half of the decade (58 versus 41). The “average” outage affected 15%
more consumers from 1996–2000 than from 1991–1995 (409,854 versus 355,204).
Number of Occurrences
100
1996–2000 Outages
• 58 occurrences over 50,000 consumers
• 409,854 average consumers
10
1991–1995 Outages
• 41 occurrences over 50,000 consumers
• 355,204 average consumers
1
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
Number of Affected Consumers
Figure 2-3. The number of occurrences of outages in the U.S. as a function of the number of
consumers affected (1991–2000).[5]
Figure 2-4 examines these data in another way. This plot shows that 76 outage occurrences led
to a loss of 100 MW or more in the second half of the decade, compared to 66 such occurrences
in the first half of the decade. Over the same period, the average load lost by an outage increased
by 34%—from 798 MW in 1991–1995 to 1067 MW in 1996–2000. Both of these plots are based
on data collected as required by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). DOE requires electric
utilities to report system emergencies that include electric service interruptions, voltage reductions, acts of sabotage, unusual occurrences that can affect the reliability of bulk power delivery
systems, and fuel problems.
Increasingly Stressed Infrastructure
The North American power delivery system is vulnerable to increasing stresses from a variety of
sources. One such stress is caused by an imbalance between growth in the demand for electric
power and enhancement of the power delivery system to support this growth. From 1988 to
1998, total electricity demand in the U.S. rose by nearly 30%, but the capacity of the nation’s
transmission network grew by only 15%. This disparity is anticipated to increase from 1999 to
2009: demand is expected to grow by 20%, while planned transmission system grows by only
3.5% (see Figure 2-5).
II: Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
11
Number of Occurrences
100
1996–2000 Outages
• 76 occurrences over 100 MW
• 1,067 average MW
10
1991–1995 Outages
• 66 occurrences over 100 MW
• 798 average MW
1
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
MW Lost
Figure 2-4. The number of occurrences of outages in the U.S. as a function of the amount of
electric load lost (1991–2000).[5]
35
Electricity demand
30
Transmission capacity expansion
Percent
25
20
15
10
5
0
1988–1998
1999–2009
Figure 2-5. U.S. electricity demand versus transmission capacity expansion
(historical and projected).
Over the decade of the 1990s, the capital expenditures of the electricity sector, both regulated
and deregulated, as a fraction of its electricity revenues was about 12% in the U.S. Moreover,
power generation, rather than power delivery infrastructure improvements, accounted for a large
share of this reduced investment. This low level of investment compared to revenue was only
approached during the depths of the Great Depression and World War II when private investment was generally at its lowest (see Figure 2-6). Even after accounting for intervening changes
in demand and technology, this is a dangerously low and unsustainable level of investment. The
consequent investment gap amounts to about $25 billion per year (U.S. dollars) and is already
resulting in average additional service reliability cost nationally of at least 50 cents for every
dollar of electricity purchased.
12
II: Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
50
45
40
Percent
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2001
Figure 2-6. U.S. electric utility new construction expenditures: percent of revenues from
ultimate consumers.[6]
The limited construction of new transmission systems is due largely to the inadequate and/or
uncertain investment return from such systems and difficulty in obtaining new rights-of-way. No
one wants new construction in their backyard, a problem that affects not only power delivery
system equipment but also freeways, dams, and airports.
The Impact of Digital Loads
At the same time, the nature of electricity demand is undergoing a profound shift in industrialized nations across the globe. Twenty years ago when the personal computer was introduced,
few foresaw the widespread proliferation of “smart” devices. Today, for every microprocessor
inside a computer, there are 30 more in stand-alone applications, resulting in the digitization
of society (see Table 2-1). In applications ranging from industrial sensors to home appliances,
microprocessors now number more than 12 billion in the United States alone. According
to Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International’s 1999 annual report, “in 1999,
semiconductor-based equipment, materials, and services (a $65 billion industry) drove the
semiconductor manufacturing industry (a $141 billion industry), which in turn enabled over
$836 billion of sales in electronics worldwide (U.S dollars).” [7]
These digital devices are highly sensitive to even the slightest disruption in power (an outage of
less than a fraction of a single cycle can disrupt performance), as well as to variations in power
quality due to transients, harmonics, and voltage surges and sags. “Digital quality power,” with
sufficient reliability and quality to serve these growing digital loads, now represents about 10%
of total electrical load in the United States, for example. It is expected to reach 30% by 2020
under business-as-usual conditions, and as much as 50% in a scenario where the power system
is revitalized to provide digital-grade service.
However, the current electricity infrastructure in the United States, designed decades ago to
serve analog (continuously varying) electric loads, is unable to consistently provide the level of
II: Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
13
Table 2-1.
The broad spectrum of digital systems, processes, and enterprises.[8]
Digital Devices
Microprocessors
• Central processing units
• Programmable logic arrays
• VLSI chips
Embedded controls
• Programmable controls
Interface
• Sensors
• Transducers
• Liquid crystal display
• Modem
Digital Applications
Residential
• Appliances
• Security
• Home office
Commercial
• Office equipment
• Networking
• Data processing
Industrial
• Process control
• Automation
• Quality
Digitally Enabled Enterprises
Security
• Image analysis
• Digital video
• Motion detection
Banking/finance
• ATMs and electronic transfers
E-commerce
• Online shopping
• Electronic inventory
• Paperless transactions
Data management
• Web hosting
• Outsource storage and retrieval
digital quality power required by our digital manufacturing assembly lines, information systems,
and soon even our home appliances.
Resulting Economic Costs
Data on the economic impact of power outages and disturbances are difficult to obtain. In nearly
all cases, costs are passed on to the customer, who neither sees them nor understands their
impact. To obtain more reliable information on these costs, EPRI conducted a survey of 985 firms
in three sectors of the economy with high sensitivity to power reliability. The firms surveyed
were in the digital economy sector (data storage, financial and online services, etc.), the continuous process manufacturing sector, and the fabrication and essential services sector. In the survey,
respondents were asked to estimate their costs arising from a series of power quality and reliability events, based upon their own recent experience.[9] Data were collected and analyzed using
the methods described below.
The estimated annual losses totaled $52 billion for the three sectors surveyed. Out of a total of
12 million business establishments in the U.S., about 2 million, or 17%, are represented by these
three sectors. The average loss per business was estimated at $26,700 per year. Next, the
researchers estimated the losses for sectors that they did not survey. They used two bounding
assumptions to reflect the fact that the nonsurveyed businesses would have a lower sensitivity to
power outages than the surveyed sectors. In the first case, they assumed that the nonsurveyed
establishments suffered half the loss of the surveyed establishments. In numerical terms, the
average loss per establishment was assumed to be $13,350/year for each of 10 million firms. In
this case, the loss was estimated at $133.5 billion for the nonsurveyed firms, plus $52 billion for
the surveyed businesses, for a total of $186 billion. In the second case, the loss per establishment for nonsurveyed companies was assumed to be one fourth of the loss for surveyed companies. This leads to an estimated total economic loss of $120 billion.
14
II: Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
Alternative approaches were also used to estimate losses for nonsurveyed firms by looking at
average revenues. This method assumes that the larger companies in three surveyed sectors
would experience greater losses than smaller companies (on average) in the nonsurveyed sectors.
The three sectors surveyed constitute about 40% of GDP, or $4 trillion per year (U.S. GDP is
approximately $10 trillion per year). Since there are 2 million such establishments, the average
revenue per company is about $2 million per year. With economic losses estimated at $26,700
per company, losses in the surveyed sector equal roughly 1.3% of revenues. For the establishments not surveyed, the share of GDP is 60%. So the average revenue per company is $6 trillion
divided by 10 million companies equals $600,000 per company. For the case in which the losses
at the nonsurveyed companies are assumed to be one fourth of the losses at the surveyed companies, the loss per company is $6700, divided by the average revenue of $600,000, or 1.1% of
revenue. The loss estimates are thus in the range of 1% of GDP, or $100 billion per year.
Finally, the researchers estimated the effect of scaling the losses by the GDP contribution of the
sectors—a methodology that several reviewers of the report had suggested. In this case, the losses
are $72 billion if the sensitivity of nonsurveyed establishments is one fourth of surveyed establishments, and $91 billion if the sensitivity is one half.
All of the analytical methods and assumptions lead to economic losses that are on the order of
$100 billion per year (see Table 2-2), validating the thesis that the losses due to U.S. power
system disturbances have become the source of a significant loss to the U.S. economy. The loss
represents an additional cost of about 50 cents for every dollar spent for electricity.
Table 2-2.
Summary of methods used for estimating annual cost of
power outages and power quality disturbances.
Method of Extrapolation From Surveyed
Sectors to Nonsurveyed Sectors
Total Estimated
Annual Cost
Average loss per business (loss = 1⁄2 of surveyed businesses)
$186 billion
1
Average loss per business (loss = ⁄4 of surveyed businesses)
$120 billion
Average revenue per business (loss = 1⁄4 of surveyed businesses)
$100 billion
Scaling by GDP contribution (loss = 1⁄2 of surveyed businesses)
$ 91 billion
Scaling by GDP contribution (loss = 1⁄4 of surveyed businesses)
$ 72 billion
Conclusion: order of magnitude of total annual costs
$100 billion
The Wholesale Power Market
The North American power delivery system was initially designed to reliably supply native
load. Portions of this power system were designed regionally or locally to account for the
locations of load centers (where power was needed) and the most reasonable locations to site
power production facilities (often dictated by the availability of water and fuel). These load
centers and power production facilities were then connected together by a power delivery grid.
These networks became “cohesive electrical zones” that were designed to optimize local generation with local loads.
II: Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
15
Regulatory changes have led to functional shifts in the structure of electric power industries
worldwide, which in turn affect this power delivery system. In the United States, for example, a
series of three federal initiatives have transformed and restructured the electric power industry.
The most recent of these, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) August 2002
Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR) aimed to establish a “standard market design” (SMD)
that standardizes transmission service and wholesale electricity market design.[10]
The advent of competition in wholesale electricity markets in the United States increases stress
on the North American power delivery system. Low-cost power generators in one area are
incented to sell power in another not-too-distant area to meet electric demand, and can do so by
virtue of the interconnected nature of the power delivery system. The desire to obtain the
lowest-cost power generation leads to an increase in the number of power transactions, which
are carried over the power transmission system. During the last decade, there was a dramatic
increase in the number of wholesale transactions (see Figure 2-7).
40
35
30
Percent
25
20
15
10
5
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Figure 2-7. Growth in independently owned capacity purchases in the U.S.[ 11]
However, the North American power delivery system was not designed to also support a thriving
power market in which gigawatts of power are bought and sold every day. The large number of
wholesale transactions breaks down the “cohesiveness” of the power delivery system, creating
stress. Figure 2-8 illustrates the number of level two or higher calls for Transmission Loading
Relief in North America. This illustrates the increasing inability of the transmission system to
handle open markets.
Without construction of power delivery system equipment, this situation is expected to worsen.
A 2002 reliability study recently concluded that “If there is no new transmission capacity built
in the Eastern Interconnection in the next five years, during half of the summer period, operators
will face congestion which may result in curtailments of the wholesale power market.” [12]
16
II: Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
250
2003
2002
1999
Number of TLRs
200
150
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Month
Figure 2-8. The rising number of calls for Transmission Loading Relief (level 2 or higher) in
North America reflects the increasing inability of the transmission system to
accommodate open markets.[13]
The Retail Power Market
As part of ongoing restructuring of the electricity industry across the United States and the
world, energy users are increasingly being offered their choice of service provider as well as
choice of services. Real-time pricing, for example, in which electricity is priced for different time
periods (e.g., hourly) according to its marginal cost, is a growing trend. Restructuring also
facilitates a range of other demand response programs, including interruptible load programs, in
which consumers receive rate reductions in exchange for a commitment to curtail certain loads
during peak periods. At the same time, a limited number of small electricity generation and
storage devices—distributed throughout the power system—are being installed on consumers’
premises to supplement traditional delivery mechanisms.
Enhancements to the existing electric power delivery infrastructure are needed to accommodate
these advances. Distribution systems were designed to perform one function—distribution of
power to end-users. But many of the value-added retail services require the two-way exchange of
information between the consumer and the marketplace.
Vulnerabilities to Natural Disaster and Attack (security)
In addition to these stresses, economic effects, and power market impacts, the existing power
delivery system is vulnerable to natural disasters and intentional attack. Regarding the latter, a
successful terrorist attempt to disrupt the power delivery system could have adverse effects
on national security, the economy, and the lives of every citizen. A recent EPRI assessment
II: Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
17
developed in response to the September 11, 2001 attacks highlights the following three different
kinds of potential threats to the U.S. electricity infrastructure:
• Attacks on the power system, in which the infrastructure itself is the primary target.
• Attacks by power system components as weapons to attack the population.
• Attacks through the power system take advantage of power system networks to affect other
infrastructure systems, such as telecommunications.
Complicating the protection of the power delivery system from a determined attack is the
dispersed nature of the system’s equipment and facilities. Presenting another complexity, both
physical vulnerabilities and susceptibility of power delivery systems to disruptions in computer
networks and communication systems must be considered. For example, terrorists might exploit
the increasingly centralized control of the power delivery system to magnify the effects of a
localized attack. Because many consumers have become more dependent on electronic systems
that are sensitive to power disturbances, an attack that leads to even a momentary interruption
of power can be costly. A 20-minute outage at an integrated circuit fabrication plant, for example, can cost $30 million (U.S. dollars).
A Stakeholder Approach
Another way to look at today’s power delivery system and power markets is to examine the
needs of various types of stakeholders in light of this infrastructure. This process is relevant
because these stakeholders are the ones that will ultimately benefit (or suffer) from the choices
made to form the power system and market infrastructure of 2020. For illustrative purposes, the
stakeholders can be characterized as the following:
• Consumers
• Electric power industry
• Electrical, electronics, and communications industry
• Regulatory entities
• The public
The primary need of consumers—residential, commercial, and industrial electricity users—is
power security, quality, reliability, and availability (SQRA) at low cost. Other needs include
choice, social goals, safety, and consumer service. Consumers need an infrastructure of technologies, market mechanisms, and regulation that facilitates choice, ensures power reliability and
quality, ensures equitable pricing, protects their privacy, and protects the environment.
The electric power industry in the U.S. includes investor-owned utilities (IOUs), federal power
systems, municipalities, cooperatives, energy service providers, trading companies, power
producers, independent transmission providers (ITPs), independent transmission companies
(ITCs), independent system operators (ISOs), and regional transmission organizations (RTOs).
These stakeholders must respond to the demands on the aging infrastructure, make better use of
industry assets, and adapt the present infrastructure to the needs of tomorrow’s society. They
must also adapt to new regulatory structures, deal with mergers in many cases, and respond to
18
II: Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
the changing work force. At the same time, they must protect the environment and ensure the
security and safety of their facilities and information. Yet this set of stakeholders is a diverse
group. For example, IOUs face financial pressures to increase revenues, reduce O&M costs,
capitalize on business opportunities, and manage increased risk. Conversely, ISOs and RTOs are
primarily charged with reliable operation of the power delivery system.
The electrical, electronics, and communications industry—developers, manufacturers, and
vendors of equipment and technology that will transform the infrastructure—have needs in
two key areas. First, they need to be able to purchase power at a specified level of quality,
reliability, and cost, so they can design their manufacturing processes to function cost-effectively
with these power quality and reliability levels. Second, they need to know the range of power
quality and reliability that the products they manufacture will encounter in the field. With this
knowledge, they can embed in their products resilience against these levels of power quality
and reliability degradation.
Regulatory entities retain within their purview the authority to affect change in the electric
power industry via direct policies or creation of market-based mechanisms. For example, they
can establish policies and/or market mechanisms that encourage investment in the power
delivery infrastructure to maintain and enhance SQRA, require environmental stewardship,
organize operation and planning of the infrastructure regionally, and ensure consumer choice.
The interests of regulatory entities overlap with those of “the public,” in that regulatory entities
must help fulfill a number of societal goals (e.g., maintain equitable pricing, protect the environment, ensure fair trade practices, and promote safety and security.)
The interests of the public include attention to ecological issues and environmental regulations,
as well as emphasis on environmentally sound power, safety and security, reliability, and energy
efficiency. Because the public at large is environmentally conscious, for example, they seek
broad adoption of environmentally compliant distributed energy resources. Because efficient
generation, delivery, and end use of electricity benefits society, the public at large prefers energy
efficient generation technologies, a power delivery system designed to minimize losses, demand
response programs, and use of energy efficient equipment and appliances. Because some portions
of society do not want expansion of the power generation and power delivery infrastructure in
their backyard, the public prefers solutions such as increased throughput over existing rights-ofway, and cost effective and less invasive undergrounding technologies and methods.
Figure 2-9 illustrates the electricity value chain that involves these stakeholders. The electric
power industry is further subdivided into generation; transmission; distribution; ITPs, RTOs, and
ISOs; electricity related service providers; and metering and billing providers. In addition to
electrical and electronics companies and communication providers, the role of manufacturers,
distributors, and installers of end-use energy-consuming devices is shown. Table 2-3 shows the
benefits of lower cost/higher SQRA electricity to many of these stakeholders.
II: Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
19
Manufacturers,
distributors and
installers, end-use
energy consuming
devices
Electricity
related
energy
services
Electrical and electronic
apparatus industry
Consumers
Primary
energy
production
Primary
energy
transport
Electricity
generation
Transmission
Society
Distribution
ITPs,
RTOs and
ISOs
Metering
and billing
Communications
providers
Figure 2-9. The U.S. electricity value chain.
Table 2-3.
Benefits of lower-cost/higher SQRA electricity to stakeholders.
Electrical, Electronic, and
Communications Industry
• Benefits = to consumers
Plus
• New markets for products
and services
• Greater earnings before income
taxes (EBIT)
Electric Power Industry
• Improved consumer satisfaction
Consumers
• Increased control and choice
• Enhanced productivity
• Increased convenience and
• Improved national security
automated control
• Improved quality of life
• Competitive advantage
• Reduced environmental impact
• Lower cost motive power
• Sustained economic growth
• Lower cost transportation
• Improved industrial process
performance
• Lower cost climate control
• Reduced O&M expenses
• Improved comfort
• Higher realized ROR
• Least-cost environmental mitigation
• Enhanced asset utilization
• Improved communications
• Reduced risk
performance
• Improved medical diagnostics
performance
• Lower cost food preparation
• Enabling digital devices
• Reduced cost from outages/power
quality disturbances
• Improved productivity
20
II: Today’s Power Delivery System and Power Markets
• Enhanced education
• Lower cost artificial illumination
• Reduced consumer service cost
• Expanded markets
Society at Large
III
The Vision: Power Delivery Systems
and Power Markets of the Future
The challenge before the energy industry is formidable. For, as stated in the July 2001 issue of
Wired magazine, “the current power infrastructure is as incompatible with the future as horse
trails were to automobiles.” [14] But with an aggressive, public/private coordinated effort, the
present power delivery system and market structure can be enhanced and augmented by the year
2020 to meet the challenges it faces. This section summarizes the vision of this power delivery
system and power markets.
Overview
The envisioned power delivery systems and power markets of the future can include the following:
• The rules, roles, and responsibilities of the major stakeholders in the electric power industry
are clarified, enabling a revitalized public/private partnership that maintains confidence and
stability in electricity sector financing. The risk premium declines, investors return, and the
rate of investment in the essential electricity infrastructure is substantially increased.
• The electricity sector provides the platform for technical innovation and continued economic
prosperity. Technological progress continues to advance on a broad front. Key advances
include digital control of the power delivery network, coupled with consumer-based technology that replaces the traditional meter with a consumer portal for two-way flow of information
and energy. Eventually, it is expected that this platform will enable every end-use electrical
appliance to be linked with the open marketplace for goods and services, including, but not
limited to, electric power.
• Consumer-enabling technology provides entirely new capabilities for participation in the
electricity marketplace. Innovation removes constraints on the electricity industry and consumers, and ushers in a new era of energy/information services.
• Economic productivity increases substantially as a result of the transformation of the electric
power sector, generating additional wealth to address the large societal, security and environmental challenges of this century.
• The role of regulation has evolved from oversight of company operations and “protection” of
ratepayers to oversight of markets, as well as enabling and guiding specific public-good
services (e.g., reliability standards, provider-of-last-resort, and market transformation).
• The commitment to environmental protection emphasizes market mechanisms to incent the
move toward more efficient, cleaner, low-carbon-emitting technologies, and reduced air emissions linked to health and welfare risks, based upon sound science.
• National security and energy policies emphasize fuel diversity, placing electricity at the center
of a strategic thrust to (1) create a clean, robust portfolio of domestic energy options (including
fossil, nuclear and renewable energy sources, along with end-use efficiency), (2) electrify
transportation to reduce dependence on imported oil, and (3) develop a sustainable hydrogen/electric energy system.
Economic Benefits of an Enhanced Infrastructure
A recently conducted analysis examines the potential payoff to society of an “enhanced productivity” scenario, which relies on implementation of the enabling technologies described in this
report, as well as enabling technologies that address other Roadmap destinations. Table 3-1
presents a current baseline plus two different projections of the future in 2020. The scenario
shown in the table’s second data column—derived largely from DOE Energy Information Agency
extrapolations—defines a “business as usual” (BAU) case.
The second view is an enhanced productivity scenario. This vision embodies the potential for
creating a more efficient and reliable electric power system through the accelerated implementation of innovative technologies and architectures. The enhanced productivity case is not a
forecast in the traditional sense. Instead, this scenario represents a set of highly challenging yet
achievable “stretch goals” made possible by an enhanced electricity infrastructure. These reflect
the opportunities that may be afforded by accelerating the fundamental technological changes
under way in the U.S. economy and society. The enhanced productivity case incorporates
analysis conducted as part of EPRI’s Electricity Technology Roadmap, as well as other sources,
including a recently published report by the Energy Future Coalition.[1]
In the enhanced productivity scenario, the deployment of more energy-efficient technologies
has the potential for reducing the growth in bulk electricity consumption to about 1.3% per year
over the next twenty years, compared with the 1.8% annual increase anticipated for the business-as-usual case. As shown in Table 3-1, this could result in an increase in electricity demand
by 2020 of less than 30% above today’s level, rather than the 40% anticipated in the businessas-usual case. This means that 5–10% less electricity will be required to drive the same (or
higher) GDP than under business-as-usual conditions. As a result, energy intensity is envisioned
to be reduced by about 40% in the enhanced productivity case versus 20% in the BAU case, a
net improvement of 20%.
These are much more ambitious goals for energy savings than are typically forecasted or advocated today. However, similar instances of sharp reductions in energy intensity have occurred in
the past both for total energy and electricity. For example, U.S. energy intensity declined by this
same fraction from 1973 to 1999. In addition, since the oil embargo of 1973, the U.S. has gained
nearly three times the energy from efficiency savings as it has from the net expansion of all
domestic supplies combined. Moreover, the electricity intensity targets of the enhanced productivity scenario would allow the U.S. to achieve the energy efficiency levels of Japan and
Germany, which have the lowest electricity intensities in the developed world.
Table 3-1 summarizes the payoff to society of rapidly developing and deploying technology to
support the demands of digital technology. In this enhanced scenario, productivity growth rates
are higher and the economy expands more rapidly, while energy intensity and carbon emissions
are substantially reduced.
22
III: The Vision: Power Delivery Systems and Power Markets of the Future
Table 3-1.
Potential benefits of business-as-usual and enhanced productivity cases in 2020.
2000
2020
Baseline
Business as Usual1
(BAU)
Enhanced
Productivity
Improvement of Enhanced
Productivity Over BAU
Electricity consumption (billion kWh)
3,800
5,400
4,900–5,200
5–10% reduction
Delivered electricity intensity (kWh/$GDP)
0.41
0.33
0.27
20% reduction
Carbon dioxide emissions (million metric
tons of C)
590
790
590–690
13–25% reduction
Worker productivity growth rate (%/year)
2.522
2.0
2.5
25% increase
Real GDP ($billion 1996)
9,200
16,500
18,300
10% increase
100
200
50
75% reduction
Parameter
Cost of power disturbances to businesses
($billion 1996)
1
2
These specifications are primarily based on DOE-EIA projections and largely represent extrapolations of current trends.
Average annual productivity growth 1995–1999.
Worker productivity growth rate, for example, sustains the level of 2.5% achieved in the latter
half of the 1990s, as opposed to the 2% rate of the BAU case. The higher productivity rates can
be sustained in the future because the highly reliable digital power infrastructure means that
workers can perform existing and completely new functions quickly, accurately and efficiently.
In this sense, power reliability and quality become enabling technologies—they are necessary but
not sufficient for unleashing and streamlining the digital economy.
The real payoff is the $1.8 trillion/year in additional revenue that might be available to both the
private and public sectors by 2020.
The Smart Power Delivery System and SQRA
A key part of realizing these benefits is the “smart power delivery system.” In broad strokes, this
is an integrated, self-healing, electronically controlled electricity supply system of extreme
resiliency and responsiveness; one that is fully capable of responding in real-time to the billions
of decisions made by consumers and their increasingly sophisticated microprocessor agents. The
potential exists to create an electricity system that provides the same efficiency, precision and
interconnectivity as the billions—ultimately trillions—of microprocessors that it will power.
This smart power delivery system will be an electricity and information infrastructure that
enables the next wave of technological advances to flourish. The system will be always on and
“alive,” interconnected and interactive, and merged with communications in a complex network
of real-time information and power exchange. The “self healing” system will sense disturbances
and counteract them, or reconfigure the flow of power to cordon off a disturbance before it propagates. The system will also be smart enough to seamlessly integrate traditional central power
generation with an array of locally installed, distributed energy resources into a regional network.
The smart power delivery system will be constantly self-monitoring and self-correcting to
maintain the flow of secure, digital grade quality, and high reliability and availability power.
III: The Vision: Power Delivery Systems and Power Markets of the Future
23
For the security component, this system and a range of technologies and approaches will
enhance the security of both information and physical systems to ensure the following:
• Uninterrupted operation of the power delivery system and market systems
• Rapid recovery of the power delivery system and markets after an attack
• Confidentiality of corporate information
• Privacy of consumer information
• Business and consumer confidence.
In addition to the smart power delivery system, a combination of enhancements to the power
delivery infrastructure and end user-side technologies will enable delivery of highly reliable
power. On the infrastructure side, enhancements will result in very long mean-time between
failure (MTBF) rates and very short mean-time to repair (MTTR) rates, thereby maximizing
reliability for digital devices, digital applications, and the digitally enable enterprises they make
possible. (In this context, MTBF is the average time expected between failures of the power
delivery system at a particular location.) On the end-user side, utilities can work with equipment
manufacturers to define specifications on the reliability of power delivery, enabling manufacturers to design products to function at the reliability levels they will encounter in the field. For
example, manufacturers could embed resilience to degraded power quality and reliability into
their products, provided that appropriate power quality and reliability standards exist, an
industry consensus is reached, and/or market forces motivate them to do so. Taken together,
these advances are expected to be a key to economic prosperity at all levels of the economy.
Retail Power Markets
New digital technology can open the consumer gateway now constrained by the meter, allowing
price signals, decisions, communications, and network intelligence to flow back and forth through
a two-way consumer portal. This could be the linchpin technology that leads to a fully functioning retail power marketplace with consumers responding (through microprocessor agents) to
price signals. Specific capabilities of the “smart” consumer portal can include the following:
• Advanced pricing and billing processes that would support real-time pricing
• Consumer services, such as billing inquiries, service calls, outage and emergency services,
power quality, and diagnostics
• Information for developing improved building and appliance standards
• Consumer load management through sophisticated on-site energy management systems
• Easy “plug and play” interconnection of distributed energy resources
• System operations, including dispatch, demand response, and loss identification
• Load forecasting
• Long-term planning
• Green power marketing and sales
24
III: The Vision: Power Delivery Systems and Power Markets of the Future
Wholesale Power Markets
The power markets of the future could include stabilized financial health of the electricity
industry, and reestablished clarity over the rules, roles and responsibilities of electricity regulation. This future could include many of the following characteristics:
• A new regulatory compact based on risk management principles could restore investor
confidence and foster market transformation.
• Risk could be efficiently allocated among consumers, the utility, and the wholesale suppliers
through design of the utility’s portfolio of service contracts and supply contracts, and the
allocation of residual risk to be borne by shareholders.
• The regional geographic differences and regional experimentation with market models could
be respected. Experience has shown that regional management of an open access transmission
system is the key to vigorous wholesale markets; this is the basic principle of FERC’s Standard
Market Design (SMD) in the U.S.
• The reliability previously realized through centralized power pools could be recaptured. In
the U.S., motivated by the adverse experiences in California’s highly decentralized system,
FERC’s SMD reverts to the centralized power pool used before restructuring to recapture the
reliability obtained previously.
• Federal/state regulatory scope, authority, roles, and responsibilities could be clarified. A new
regulatory compact could facilitate cost recovery across jurisdictional boundaries.
• All transmission could be assimilated into independent transmission entities.
• Integrated resource planning could be regionalized.
• A true trading market could be created for all energy assets, including the monetization of
demand response, carbon and other resources.
• Electricity trading practices could be standardized, with ensured transparency, to help restore
investor and regulatory confidence in the trading sector.
Efficient Energy Use
The vision of the power delivery system of the future extends to the efficiency of electricity use.
On the consumer premises, advances in electrotechnologies, advanced motors, lighting, improved
space conditioning, real-time energy management systems, automated recycling systems, and
other technologies could encourage investment in energy-efficient technologies, reduce energy
costs, stimulate the economy, and minimize environmental impact of power generation. On the
streets, widespread use of electric transportation solutions—including fuel cell vehicles—can
reduce petroleum consumption, reduce the trade deficit for countries that import oil, enhance
GDP, and reduce emissions, among other benefits.
Distributed Energy Resources
Widespread deployment of distributed energy resources (DER)—microturbines, fuel cells, photovoltaics, and other generation and energy storage devices installed close to the point of use—can
reduce the need for power delivery system investment. At the same time, DER can help resolve
III: The Vision: Power Delivery Systems and Power Markets of the Future
25
many power delivery system constraints (e.g., by increasing power flow capability) and help
reduce power line losses. Suitable for a variety of industrial, commercial, residential, and
transportation applications, DER offers consumers lower cost of power, higher reliability, and
improved power quality. Many DER devices also provide recoverable heat suitable for cogeneration at industrial, commercial, and institutional facilities, thus improving overall efficiency and
contributing to both economic and environmental value.
Environmental Stewardship
Environmental stewardship is likely to also receive increased attention during the next two
decades. Growing population and consumption of resources will probably continue to exert
pressure on the natural environment. In addition, the accelerating globalization of commerce
may focus more attention on trans-national environmental issues, such as greenhouse gas emissions. Increasing concern for environmental stewardship among all stakeholders may result in
minimization of environmental impact in a wide range of activities.
In the context of the three destinations examined in this report, environmental stewardship
means consideration of electric and magnetic fields, visual impacts, water use, ambient and
indoor air quality, solid waste production, and others. Electricity has played a key role in environmental stewardship because many environmental treatment processes are electrically driven.
Its importance will only increase, as more electrically driven environmental control and treatment technologies are further developed and deployed. At the same time, the efficiency of electricity use reduces the production of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from power generation.
Human Resources—Training, Education, and Knowledge Capture
Realizing this vision requires a significant focus on
human resources, including a broad range of
programs to provide training and education. Education is an overarching issue in the area of power
delivery and markets, spanning K-12 education,
university degree programs, educational opportunities
for power professionals, and enhanced general public
awareness and understanding. A larger pool is
needed of well-educated, trained, motivated engineers, software developers, power delivery system
operators, and other technical specialists in the
power industry. Limited advancement toward realizing this vision can be achieved without such an
expanded pool of people.
In the energy industry, workforces are aging, and
many highly knowledgeable workers with decades of
experience are departing as a result of retirement,
job transfers, downsizing, and other reasons. Expert
personnel are extremely valuable organizational
assets because they harbor unique and specialized
knowledge that enables them to perform tasks more
efficiently and effectively than other personnel.
26
III: The Vision: Power Delivery Systems and Power Markets of the Future
Although many types of explicit knowledge may be
captured effectively, other types—particularly tacit
knowledge—are not easily accessible, codifiable, or
transferable. Tacit knowledge is located in the
expert’s head, may sometimes be at an almost
subconscious level, and is often difficult to articulate. The culmination of a three-year effort, a recent
EPRI report outlines a practical process for tacit (and
explicit) knowledge capture that was developed
based on extensive background research and fieldtesting activities.[15]
In this knowledge capture area, the next steps
include development of tools and guidance for “self
elicitation” (i.e., enabling expert workers to make
their own specialized knowledge available to others)
and automated source knowledge acquisition. This
involves capturing knowledge at the time and place
that it is first created in a form that is usable with
minimum transcription and editing. Technologies
needed include voice recognition, digital audio and
video recording, digital photographs, and handwriting
optical character recognition.
IV
Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen
the Power Delivery Infrastructure
Overview
Achieving this vision of the future requires advancement of a significant number of enabling
technologies, which can be organized according to the destinations that they will help reach:
• Strengthening the power delivery infrastructure
• Enabling a revolution in consumer services
• Boosting economic productivity and prosperity
This section covers the first destination in this list. The following technologies are covered:
• Smart power delivery system
• Advanced distribution automation
• Fast simulation and modeling
• Integrating distributed energy resources
• Distributed storage technologies
• Technologies to improve power system operation and control
• Technologies to reduce vulnerability to natural disaster and attack
• Technologies to improve power quality
This section then covers a key overarching technology that provides the foundation for many of
these technologies: an Integrated Energy and Communications System Architecture (IECSA). The
section concludes with an overview of power delivery system planning methods and tools.
Smart Power Delivery System
Primary objectives of the smart power delivery system summarized in the previous section
include the following (see Figure 4-1):
• Dynamically optimize the performance and robustness of the power delivery system.
• Quickly react to disturbances on the power delivery system in such a way as to
minimize impact.
• Effectively restore the power delivery system to a stable operating region after a disturbance.
The power of a smart power delivery system can best be illustrated by showing how it could
have helped prevent the wide area blackout of the power delivery system in the western United
States on August 10, 1996. A transmission-class fault anticipator located at one end of the KeelerAllston 500-kV line would have detected tree contact with the line several hours before it finally
shorted out that day. Then a network of distributed data processors, communicating with the
regional operations center, would have identified the line as having an increased risk of failure,
and simulations would have been run to determine the optimal corrective response. When
failure occurred, a network of sensors would instantly have detected the resulting voltage fluctuation and communicated this information to intelligent relays and other equipment located at
substations. These relays would have automatically executed corrective actions based on current
information about the status of the whole power system, isolating the 500-kV line and re-routing
power via power electronics-based controllers to other parts of the power delivery system. No
consumer would even have been aware that a potentially catastrophic event had occurred.
Figure 4-1. The smart power delivery system will incorporate “self healing” capability. Using a
network of sensors, communications systems, and local computational agents (e.g., a
dynamic thermal circuit rating system), the system will be able to quickly react to
disturbances on the power delivery system in such a way as to minimize impact.
Much of the theoretical foundation for the smart power delivery system has been developed
under the joint EPRI-U.S. Department of Defense Complex Interactive Networks/Systems
Initiative (CIN/SI) that was concluded in 2001. This three-year program of Government Industry
Collaborative University Research (GICUR) was funded equally by EPRI and the United States
Department of Defense through the Army Research Office. The objective of CIN/SI was to
produce significant, strategic advancements in the robustness, reliability and efficiency of the
interdependent energy, communications, financial, and transportation infrastructures.
To accelerate adoption of the needed technologies to make the smart power delivery system a
reality, the Smart Grid Working Group of the Energy Future Coalition—made up of energy
companies, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, regulatory agencies, and
28
IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
consumer groups—proposed the following three-part strategy in its June 2003 report:
• DOE “develop a national vision statement and demonstration program for the 21st century grid”
• NERC or other appropriate entity “establish national grid performance standards”
• Federal and state entities “enact . . . incentives to promote investments in smart
grid technologies.” [1]
Advanced Distribution Automation
Advanced distribution automation (ADA) will encompass monitoring and control, distribution
system management functions, and consumer interaction (e.g., load management, metering, and
real-time pricing). ADA will provide optimization of a variety of functions. For example, a
section of the distribution system may be intentionally islanded in an emergency to use its local
DER, with sag correctors and other power electronics-based controls used to maintain the quality
of the waveform. In an example of strategic operation of the distribution system, ADA will
enable real-time optimization, such as obtaining voltage support from a DER when a capacitor
bank is out of service.
Two closely coordinated developments are initially needed to make ADA a reality: (1) an open
communication architecture to facilitate the system monitoring and control functions of ADA,
and (2) a redeveloped power system from an electrical architecture standpoint to enable an
interoperable network of components.
To achieve this, ADA will function using various base technologies, including communications
systems, distributed computing, embedded system computing, sensor and monitoring technologies, and new electrical and power-electronics-based components. More specifically, technologies
will include sophisticated and interactive use of smart sectionalizing, switched capacitors, sag
correctors, voltage regulators, multifunction DER, load management devices, new sensors, power
electronics-based controls, and others.
ADA is envisioned to improve system monitoring; outage detection, location, and management;
service restoration; crew dispatch and work direction; maintenance practices and prioritization;
automated switching and fault management via fault avoidance; reactive power and voltage
management; and loss reduction and asset utilization. Accomplishing this requires initial RD&D
efforts in the following areas:
• Assist utility migration to open systems for automation equipment.
• Assist utility ability to specify automation equipment for their own needs.
• Develop and refine device models for specific application areas.
• Implement open systems in real world environments and capture lessons learned and
necessary refinements.
• Contribute to the development of key open standards specifications.
• Develop a flexible electric distribution system architecture, including advanced configurations
and capabilities, such as two-way power flow, intentional islanding, microgrids, dc ring buses,
and looped secondaries.
IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
29
• Develop key electrical and power-electronic components that enable the flexible electric
architecture and are cornerstones of ADA (such as the intelligent universal transformer and
new solid-state switchgear).
• Develop tools to assist utility specification for larger system integration.
A key new ADA technology is the intelligent universal transformer. This device replaces conventional distribution transformers with a power electronics-based system that not only steps voltage
like traditional transformers, but also adds the following:
• Consumer service benefits (e.g., dc or multiple-frequency ac service options, conversion of
single-phase to three-phase service, and power quality enhancement functionalities, such as
harmonic filtering and voltage sag correction).
• System operational benefits (e.g., standardization of design, elimination of oil dielectrics,
reduced weight and size, and electrical sensors and interoperability to act as a smart multifunctional node in ADA).
In ADA, more sophisticated control concepts will be used. As the distribution system becomes
more widely monitored via advances in sensor technology, and the system has more microprocessor-controlled components (e.g., the intelligent universal transformer or new load management devices), these components can be used for strategic operating advantage. To do so will
require a more sophisticated control system. First, the system must be based on the interoperability of all of its parts. This means migration to an open communication architecture. Second,
local distribution control via distributed computing will be used. The local distribution control
concept will involve using a central control center at the distribution system level for coordination with control at the transmission level. This is necessary for overall power flow supervision
and coordination of DER dispatch at the distribution level with central generation at the transmission level, as well as for coordinating volt/VAR management. (DER can be a source of VARs,
as well as kWs.) The central distribution control center would also supervise the distributed
control capabilities that are dispersed throughout the distribution system. These include microprocessors embedded in intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) throughout the distribution system
and other local control agents.
Fast Simulation and Modeling
To provide the mathematical underpinning and look-ahead capability for the smart power
delivery system, fast simulation and modeling (FSM) capability is needed. Creating a smart
power delivery system requires the judicious use of numerous intelligent sensors and communication devices that are integrated with power system control through the IECSA. The FSM
project will augment these capabilities in the following ways:
• Provide faster-than-real-time, look-ahead simulations and thus be able to avoid previously
unforeseen disturbances.
• Perform what-if analyses for large-region power systems from both operations and planning
points of view.
• Integrate market, policy and risk analysis into system models, and quantify their effects on
system security and reliability.
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IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
The next step in creating a smart power delivery system involves addition of intelligent network
agents (INAs) that gather and communicate system data, make decisions about local control functions (such as switching a protective relay), and coordinate such decisions with overall system
requirements. Because most control agents on today’s power delivery systems are programmed to
respond to disturbances in pre-determined ways—for example, by switching off a relay at a certain
voltage—their activity may worsen an incipient problem and contribute to a cascading outage.
The new simulation tools developed in the FSM project will help prevent such cascading effects
by creating better system models that use real-time data from INAs over a wide area and in turn
coordinate the control functions of the INAs for overall system benefit, instead of the benefit of
one circuit or one device. The Electricity Innovation Institute’s (E2I) Consortium for Electric Infrastructure to Support a Digital Society (CEIDS) initiative is undertaking initial FSM development.
Integrating Distributed Energy Resources
Distributed energy resources (DER) play an important role in strengthening the power delivery
infrastructure. DER includes a variety of energy sources—such as microturbines, fuel cells,
photovoltaics, and energy storage devices—with capacities from approximately 1 kW to 10 MW.
Today, DER accounts for about 7% of total capacity in the United States for example, mostly in
the form of backup generation, yet very little is connected to the power delivery system. By
2020, DER could account for as much as 25% of total U.S. capacity, with most of the DER
devices connected to the power delivery system.
DER can contribute to overall system reliability and efficiency, and provide peaking power,
emergency power, and ancillary functions, such as VAR support and power quality enhancement, for a distribution system. Deployment of DER on distribution networks could potentially
increase reliability and lower the cost of power delivery by placing energy sources closer to
demand centers and reducing the need for some power delivery system expansion.
To facilitate integration and real-time dispatch of DER, including distributed generation and
storage devices, a secure communications and control infrastructure must be provided. To assess
the impact of DER on the stability and control of the power delivery system, improved methods
of modeling and measuring consumer demand are needed. The integration and compatibility of
DER devices with the power delivery system must also be assured. Safe, environmentally responsible, and efficient integration of these devices with the power delivery system will require new
standards development, system testing, and specification of advanced integration requirements,
as well as coordination with industry, state, and local government organizations to accelerate
regulatory policies, codes, permitting and siting.
The work in DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory program on “Distribution and Interconnection R&D” aims to conduct “research and development to advance efficient, reliable, and
secure electric power distribution systems of the future, and to integrate distributed energy
resources into these existing and future systems.” In its January 2003 report, DOE recommends
development of “a set of technology platforms that support the development of a modernized,
reliable, highly automated and more efficient electric power distribution system with fully
integrated distributed energy resources.” [16]
IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
31
Distributed Storage Technologies
A range of distributed storage technologies, including advanced batteries, flywheels, supercapacitors, and superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES), can provide a variety of
benefits, including the ability to meet the high power quality needs of sensitive equipment. Yet
each of these distributed storage technologies also presents integration challenges.
Distributed storage technologies can act as a shock-absorbing buffer between power generation
and power use, ensuring that digital-grade, uninterrupted power is provided to the end-use
device. For example, modular, advanced battery storage systems take advantage of the chemical
energy charge and discharge capability of innovative chemical reactions. The projected cost of
such systems has significantly decreased over the last few years. However, transmission, distribution, renewable and end-user application demonstrations are needed to prove their performance
and life characteristics, as well as verify installed costs at 100-kW and 10-MW scale levels in
various applications.
Flywheel energy storage takes advantage of the kinetic energy charge and discharge capability of
a spinning wheel. While small flywheels (up to 300 kW for one hour) have been commercially
successful, further work is needed to develop higher-energy wheels. High voltage utility applications of super-capacitors (i.e., electrical storage devices ideal for large power storage over short
discharge times) remain in the development and early testing phase; current commercial applications provide less than 100 kW of storage for less then one second. Advances in high temperature superconductors make SMES technology, which stores direct current in a doughnut shaped
electromagnetic coil of superconducting wire, potentially attractive. However, further advances
are needed for this technology to become cost effective.
Technologies to Improve Power System Operation and Control
One of the first steps towards development of a smart power delivery system is the ability to
monitor and analyze the current state of the system in real time—either to anticipate problems
by recognizing early symptoms or to respond to disturbances already under way. For both transmission and distribution systems, the availability of numerous condition-monitoring sensors
connected to a secure communications network will be crucial for achieving a rapid assessment.
Wide Area Measurement System. The first demonstration of a measuring and monitoring capability that covers a large power delivery system is now under way in the western United States.
This Wide Area Measurement System (WAMS) is based on high speed monitoring of measurement points, “concentration” of these measurements, and generation of displays based on these
measurements. By constantly monitoring conditions throughout a wide-area network, WAMS can
detect abnormal system conditions as they arise. The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA),
Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), several other energy companies, EPRI, DOE, the
U.S. Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Reclamation, two national laboratories, and others
have all participated in WAMS development and early implementation.
Expansion of this capability is crucial for implementation of an integrated wholesale power
market. Reliable, real-time gathering of a range of power system parameters will enable power
32
IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
delivery system operators to detect and counteract abnormal conditions over a wide geographic
area, thus enabling the power delivery system to operate safely closer to its inherent limits.
Broader implementation of WAMS-like systems will provide the real-time information needed for
integrated control of a large, highly interconnected transmission network.
Power Electronics-Based Controllers. Power electronics-based
controllers are a second key enabling technology in this area.
By fully controlling magnitude and direction of real and
reactive power flows, providing dynamic voltage support, and
reacting almost instantaneously to disturbances (within a
fraction of a cycle), these controllers increase transmission
capacity, maximize utilization of transmission systems, and
improve overall system reliability and security. By contrast,
electromechanical controllers are too slow to govern the flow
of alternating current in real-time, resulting in loop flows
and bottlenecks.
When power electronics-based controllers are extensively deployed throughout the North American power delivery system, system operators will be able to dispatch transmission capacity
within their interconnection, facilitating open access. In many instances, these controllers can
increase power transfer capability by up to 50% and, by eliminating power bottlenecks, extend
the market reach of competitive generation. In economic terms, this boost translates into less
power delivery system construction, reduced capital expenditures, rapid payback of capital, and
in many cases, an alternative to the growing difficulty of siting new lines.
At this time, a wide range of controllers based on the use of silicon-based switching devices are
commercially available, but all are individually controlled. New system control logic is needed
that allows the integrated control of multiple power electronics devices to provide maximal
available power transfer capability.
Due to the wide range of applications it can accommodate, the converter-based type of power
flow controllers, rather than the thyristor-based type, shows the greatest promise. Fundamentally,
a converter-based controller has two major constituents: (1) the converter proper (including
control, cooling, and support equipment) to generate the required output for compensation, and
(2) the magnetic interface (coupling transformer and auxiliary magnetic components, if used) to
connect it in-shunt or in-series to the ac system. These two main constituents primarily determine the performance, reliability and cost of an installation. A key effort needed in the short
term addresses the most important issues of converter-based power flow controllers: (1) in the
converter proper, a simplified converter structure is needed, and (2) in the magnetic interface, the
series coupling transformer must be eliminated. The coupling transformer, with possible additional magnetic components, represents the most significant portion of the power electronicsbased device from the standpoints of cost, reliability, and performance. Series transformers are
expensive and can pose control difficulties and performance limitations due to their tendency to
saturate during dynamic voltage excursions. To eliminate the coupling transformer from the controller, an “H-bridge” converter structure can be developed for direct series connection to the
IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
33
transmission or distribution line. The converter would employ the switching capabilities of emerging power semiconductors to produce the desired output voltage waveform without a complex
circuit structure. Successful completion of the program is expected to result in a low cost, reliable
and highly versatile converter structure for both transmission and distribution applications.
To hasten widespread use of power electronics-based controllers on high-voltage power systems,
power electronics devices based on materials other than silicon, including silicon carbide and
gallium nitride, are needed. Further, systems to address the economic, financial, and contractual
aspects of integrated network control will also be needed.
Technologies to Reduce Vulnerability to Natural Disaster and Attack
The security of the power delivery system and power markets represents a potentially critical
“showstopper” for realizing key Roadmap destinations. If infrastructure security is not assured,
the ability to maintain current levels of productivity and service will be jeopardized. Conversely,
deploying some of the advanced technologies needed to enhance security will also help improve
power delivery system reliability and coordinate power system operations with those of other
energy infrastructures.
One such technology is fast simulation and modeling (described earlier). Using FSM, pattern
recognition and diagnostic models can determine the location and nature of suspicious events.
Other technologies in this area include probabilistic vulnerability assessment, and emergency
control and restoration.
Probabilistic Vulnerability Assessment. A key priority among efforts to improve overall system
security is to assess vulnerabilities to terrorism and identify the most effective countermeasures.
Probabilistic vulnerability assessment is a framework for objectively identifying the most significant threats to the electricity supply chain and assessing the relative cost-effectiveness of various
potential solutions. The probabilistic methods developed in this effort will also provide the basis
for improved assessment of risks encountered during normal power system operations.
Emergency Control and Restoration. Following a major terrorist attack or natural calamity, a
system is needed that enables initial reaction to focus on creating self-sufficient islands in the
power delivery system, which are adapted to make best use of network resources that remain
available. A wide-area, secure communications system is also needed to replace use of the
Internet for critical monitoring and control functions, in order to reduce vulnerabilities and
improve availability of critical information for system recovery.
Continuation of pioneering work completed as part of the Complex Interactive Networks/Systems
Initiative (CIN/SI) on a Strategic Power Infrastructure Defense (SPID) system would enable
analysis of information about the status of the power delivery system and secure communications system after an attack, as well as coordination of their use for adaptive islanding. Once a
stable configuration of power delivery system islands had been established after a terrorist attack,
self-healing algorithms would gradually return the power delivery system to its normal state as
more resources became available.
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IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
Most sensing and control agents in a power system today simply respond to changing local
conditions according to pre-programmed instructions. Enhanced Intelligent Network Agents
(INAs), also pioneered in CIN/SI efforts, would have decision-making capability, based on
internal analysis of network-wide conditions. Once implemented, INA technology would facilitate adaptive islanding, SPID, and the smart power delivery system.
Technologies to Improve Power Quality
Providing digital-grade power is a key requirement of the power delivery system. Some of the
enabling technologies already discussed, including advanced distribution automation, distributed
energy resources, and distributed storage technologies for example, will help provide the high
quality power that a growing percentage of electric loads require. Additional power quality
enabling technologies include dc and ac microgrids and methods of increasing the resilience of
end-use equipment.
AC/DC Microgrids. An ac or dc microgrid is an islandable part of a power delivery system with
the following attributes:
• Serves one or more consumers.
• Incorporates distributed energy resources (DER) and/or includes one or more points of connection to a larger power system.
• Can operate in multiple modes, involving switching from one power source to another.
Ac/dc microgrids may range in size from a single house to small city. Microgrids may operate
independently full-time from the power delivery system, or they may operate part-time in tandem
with the power delivery system during normal conditions and disconnect and operate as an independent island in the event of a bulk-supply failure or emergency. Although a microgrid can operate in either an unlooped or looped configuration, the latter arrangement provides higher reliability, because two paths to each node are provided. Microgrids offer the potential for improvements
in energy-delivery efficiency, SQRA, and cost of operation, compared to traditional power systems.
Microgrids can also help overcome constraints in the development of new transmission capacity.
Ac microgrids offer both near-term and long-term solutions to the need for increased reliability
in power delivery systems. In the near term, existing ac power delivery systems such as those
serving remote islands that are interconnected (e.g., via submarine cables) to larger power
delivery systems may be operable as stand-alone microgrids during emergencies. This would be
possible using today’s technology in a straight-forward fashion, but would require proper design
and analysis to be successful. In the longer term, broader and more sophisticated use of switchable ac microgrids with or without DER is expected to be an integral part of strategically operated large interconnected power systems via application of advanced distribution automation.
Dc microgrids (see Figure 4-2) make sense for two primary reasons:
• Many types of DER already generate their energy as dc power or are better suited to dc output
• Dc power avoids synchronization issues and reduces stability concerns that occur with conventional ac generators.
IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
35
Photovoltaic (10 kW)
DC
Distribution
400 V
Wind (10 kW)
DC Level
Converter
Rectifier, Filter
and DC Voltage
Regulator
Inverter
Utility
System
Primary
(13.2 kV)
DC Level
Converter
Energy
Storage
DC Level
Converter
Fuel Cell
(25 kW)
Figure 4-2. Microgrids, like the dc version illustrated, offer the potential for improvements in
energy-delivery efficiency, reliability, security, power quality, and cost of operation,
compared to traditional power systems.
However, transformation of dc voltage levels from primary levels to utilization levels is more
costly and less efficient than present-day distribution transformer technologies using ac. Fault
protection of high-voltage dc distribution systems is problematic and more costly due to the lack
of a zero crossing point and limited availability of protection equipment designed for dc. And
most electronic devices have been designed for ac current.
A subset of dc microgrids is low voltage dc microgrids, which avoid the high cost of developing
a “dc transformer” that can convert primary voltage to utilization levels. The lack of reactive
voltage drop extends the reach of a low voltage system perhaps 50–100% further than an ac
system with similar sized wires.
Interest in ac and dc microgrids is an outgrowth of the need to capture the potential value of
DER, including DER’s ability to provide emergency power during interruptions of the bulk
system supply. This benefit can only be realized if the DER is operated in a configuration that
facilitates islanded operation. Microgrid approaches allow for this type of operation. In fact,
microgrids can be treated essentially as dispatchable islands in the overall power delivery
system, and thus used to reduce the capacity rating required by some transmission facilities.
Increasing Resilience of End-Use Equipment. While mitigating power quality and reliability problems with large interface technologies such as SMES and flywheels is imperative, an equally
important approach is to increase the resilience of end-use technologies to substandard power
quality and reliability.
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IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
Embedded solutions is the term used to describe design and equipment modifications that
original equipment manufacturers could make to substantially increase the tolerance of their
products to various power quality phenomena. Such embedded solutions are not in common use
today, and technical and market barriers block their emergence. For example, an enhancement of
end-use equipment standards and advances in capabilities to test and evaluate digital technologies are needed. Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), the trade association of the semiconductor industry, has successfully begun this process with establishment of
standards F47 (voltage sag tolerances for semiconductor fabrication equipment) and F42 (test
method for compliance with SEMI F47).[17]
Embedded solutions bridge the gap between the quality and reliability of power that the power
delivery system can provide and the ability of the digital loads to function properly and reliably.
Key research in this area will focus on design of embedded solutions using advanced energy
storage components such as ultracapacitors. The first step toward designing digital loads with
built-in disturbance immunity is joint industry/utility development of a detailed R&D plan
focusing on promising technologies and evaluating their potential as embedded solutions. This
will accelerate the design and development of advanced power supplies and other key enabling
technologies that will allow seamless integration of embedded solutions with digital loads.
Integrated Communication Architecture
A foundation for achieving much of the vision outlined in this report involves development of a
communication architecture overlaid on today’s power delivery system. This Integrated Energy
and Communications System Architecture (IECSA) is an open standards-based systems architecture for a data communications and distributed computing infrastructure. Several technical
elements will constitute this infrastructure including, but not limited to, data networking,
communications over a wide variety of physical media and embedded computing technologies.
IECSA enables the evolution of the following four technology areas (see Figure 4-3):
• Technologies that enable monitoring and control of power delivery systems in real time (see
the “Smart Power Delivery System” above)
• Technologies that increase the control and capacity of power delivery systems (see “Technologies to Improve Power System Operation and Control” above)
• Technologies that enhance the performance of digital devices, supporting digital society (see
“Technologies to Improve Power Quality” above)
• Technologies that enable connectivity and enhance end-use, thereby revolutionizing the value
of consumer services (see Section V).
IECSA will build upon earlier work under the umbrella of the Utility Communication Architecture (UCA®). UCA and derivative work has led to establishment of important international
standards in the following areas: (1) energy control center communications via the Inter-Control
Center Communications Protocol (ICCP) now known as Telecontrol Application Service Element
(TASE 2), and (2) predominantly substation and feeder equipment automation via the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 61850 Standard now close to completion. While these
represent important contributions, they do not cover the entire scope of utility/energy industry
IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
37
Increase the Efficiency and Value of Electricity
Transform the
functionality of the
power delivery
infrstructure
Enable the
monitoring
and control of
power systems
in real time
Increase the
control and
capacity of
power delivery
systems
Enable digital
devices
Revolutionize the
value of electricity
services
Enhance the
performance of
digital devices
Enable
connectivity and
enhance end-use
Integrated Energy and Communications System Architecture
Figure 4-3. The Integrated Energy and Communications Architecture
(IECSA) enables a range of technologies.
enterprise integration. IECSA encompasses the past UCA technical domains and includes integration on higher levels across the enterprise. For example, IECSA also includes areas such as
revenue metering/consumer premise communications, distributed energy resource
integration, and sharing data and applications across the business enterprise.
E2I’s CEIDS initiative is developing the IECSA. The initial step in developing the IECSA is to
define clearly the scope of the requirements of the power delivery system functions and to
identify all the roles of the stakeholders. Many power system applications and a large number of
potential stakeholders already participate in the execution of the power delivery function. In the
future, more stakeholders—such as consumers responding to real-time prices, distributed energy
resource owners selling energy and ancillary services into the electricity marketplace, and
consumers demanding high quality—will impact power delivery system operations. At the same
time, new and expanded applications will be needed to respond to the increased pressures for
managing power delivery system reliability as market forces push the system to its limits. The
key is to identify and categorize all of these elements so that their requirements can be understood, their information needs can be identified, and eventually synergies among these information needs can be determined.
The scope of IECSA architecture will encompass the power system from the generator to the
end-use load. In other words, the IECSA architecture extends as far as the electric energy
extends to do useful work. This means the IECSA architecture includes the distributed computing environments for in-building environments as well as interaction with the foreseen operation
of intelligent end-use subsystems and loads within the consumers’ facility.
Power Delivery System Planning Methods and Tools
Planning the expansion of the power delivery system is another area that must be addressed.
One key to optimal power delivery system planning is the ongoing elimination of transmission
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IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
bottlenecks. Referring to the U.S. Department of Energy’s “National Transmission Grid Study ”
(May 2002) DOE Secretary Abraham explains [18]:
“This report makes clear that our nation’s transmission system over the next decade will
fall short of the reliability standards our economy requires and will result in additional
bottlenecks and higher costs to consumers. It is essential that we begin immediately to
implement the improvements that are needed to ensure continued growth and prosperity.
To achieve these goals, we will continue to identify bottlenecks that affect national interests
and facilitate regional solutions to address them. And we will work to unleash innovation
and strengthen our markets to allow entrepreneurs to develop a more advanced and robust
transmission system.”
The report went on to outline 51 specific recommendations to achieve these goals. Of these, it
identified the following three next steps toward relieving transmission bottlenecks:
• “DOE . . . will determine how to identify and designate transmission bottlenecks that significantly impact national interests
• DOE will further develop the analytic tools and methods needed for comprehensive analysis to
determine national-interest transmission bottlenecks
• . . . DOE will assess the nation’s electricity system every two years to identify national-interest
transmission bottlenecks.”
To address uncertainty about the location, size, and
schedule of new power plants coming on line, as well
as uncertainties about interregional power transfer
patterns, which may change from season to season and
year to year, probabilistic transmission planning
methods and tools are needed. In order to provide the
market signals for investors to build new transmission
projects, where the market needs them, an online
congestion monitoring system would be useful. The
Community Activity Room (CAR) concept can be
applied to this need (see Figure 4-4).
Applying this concept to an entire interconnection in
the future, data from all regions can be collected in
Figure 4-4. The CAR concept enables
visualization of critical information. Here, color bands
show potential overload levels
in 100-MW increments.[19]
near real-time, which enables the current operating
point of the entire interconnection to be represented like a color ball inside the CAR. The
closeness of the color ball from the walls of the CAR is a measure of potential reliability problems. If the color ball moves outside the walls, then wholesale power transactions (i.e., commercial activities) will be curtailed, to bring the color ball back inside. If transmission line outages
occur on the power delivery system, some walls will move inward, reducing the size of the CAR,
and potentially requiring power delivery system operators to curtail commercial activities. Congestion indices can be computed in real time, and statistics of congestion at various transmission
bottlenecks can be made available to all stakeholders, so that a consensus can be reached as to
the optimal location of new transmission investments to enable efficient power market growth.[19]
IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
39
Conclusion
Figure 4-5 illustrates how the enabling technologies discussed in this section relate to the three
difficult challenges that must be met to strengthen the power delivery infrastructure. Table 4-1
identifies the key responsible parties for each of these technologies.
Power delivery system planning
IECSA, smart power delivery system,
advanced distribution automation
Fast simulation and modeling
DC1: Increasing transmission
capacity, grid control, and stability,
while improving reliability
WAMS, power electronic controllers
Integrating distributed energy
resources
Increasing resilience of
end-use devices
Dc microgrids, storage
technologies
DC2: Improving power quality and
reliability for precision
electricity users
Strengthen
the power
delivery
infrastructure
Emergency control and
restoration
Fast simulation and modeling
DC3: Increasing robustness,
resilience, and security of the
energy infrastructure
Probabilistic vulnerability
assessment
Enabling technology
Difficult challenge
Destination
Figure 4-5. The enabling technologies in this section relate to the three difficult challenges that must
be met to strengthen the power delivery infrastructure.
40
IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
Table 4-1.
Critical enabling technologies and responsible parties:
strengthening the power delivery infrastructure.
Critical Enabling Technology
Responsible Parties (in alphabetical order)
Integrated energy and communications
system architecture (IECSA)
DOE/E/E2I/U/V
Smart power delivery system
DOE/E/E2I/U/V
Advanced distribution automation
DOE/E/E2I/U/V
Fast simulation and modeling
DOE/E/E2I/U/V
Integrating distributed energy resources
C/DOE/E/E2I/PUC/U/V
Distributed storage technologies
C/DOE/E/E2I/PUC/U/V
Wide area measurement system
DOE/E/E2I/U/V
Power electronics-based controllers
DOE/E/E2I/U/V
Emergency control and restoration
DOE/E/E2I/U/V
Probabilistic vulnerability assessment
DOE/E/E2I/FERC/U
Ac and dc microgrids
C/E/E2I/U/V
Increasing resilience of end-use
equipment
DOE/E/E2I/U/V
Power delivery system planning
E/E2I/FERC/PUC/U
Key:
C: Commercial (including consultants and other private sector entities); DOE: U.S.
Department of Energy; E: EPRI; E2I: Electricity Innovation Institute; FERC: Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission; PUC: Public Utility Commissions; U: Utilities; V: Vendors
IV: Enabling This Vision: Technologies to Strengthen the Power Delivery Infrastructure
41
V
Technologies That Foster a Revolution
in Consumer Services
Overview
Technologies that expand consumer choice will stimulate a cascade of new developments (and
structural changes) that move up the energy value chain from consumer to retail service
provider, distribution and transmission utility, and power producer. Thus, consumer-enabling
technologies could usher in a new era of energy and information services. This section summarizes key technologies that can make this a reality and hence addresses the second of the three
destinations—“enabling a revolution in consumer services.”
In 2020, power users could choose from a broad range of “always-on” enhanced energy and
consumer service applications. Residential, commercial, and industrial consumers could benefit
from “price-smart” electricity-related services, such as real-time pricing of electricity and connectivity with wholesale markets. Other services could include the following:
• Universal access to low-cost power from low-emission generation
• A menu of premium power options
• Real-time power quality monitoring
• Outage management
• Control and monitoring of distributed energy resources and electric vehicles
• Energy management at the level of the individual end-use device.
For example, energy management technologies, communication protocols and interoperability,
and electronic equipment (e.g., direct digital control systems) will link power, data, and communication equipment. This link will provide real-time integrated control of consumer HVAC, lighting, process systems, on-site DER, and storage systems. HVAC systems will better follow air
conditioning loads and allow the seamless integration of advanced thermal energy storage systems.
Service providers, device manufacturers, energy companies, system integrators, and others are
likely to prosper in this business environment, while shifting empowerment from power producers and distributors to consumers.
The Smart Power Delivery System
The Integrated Energy and Communication Systems Architecture (IECSA) will provide the
foundation for the smart power delivery system (see Figure 5-1), which in turn will enable these
Figure 5-1. The smart power delivery system includes a system of sensors and integrated communications that enables the system to accommodate a range of consumer services.
services, as well as others not yet imagined. Hence, the IECSA will effectively provide the
necessary first step towards realization of the revolution in consumer services.
The smart power delivery system will accommodate the new interactive potential of consumers
by incorporating a distributed computing infrastructure. This system will consist of a data
communications network and intelligent equipment, such as a new generation of “smart consumer portal” that replaces the traditional electric meter (see Figure 5-2). This equipment will
enable interactive, two-way communications, provide Internet access, ensure connectivity to the
energy marketplace, and enable a better-informed consumer decision-making process. The broad
range of services the smart power delivery system enables will stimulate investment in this
infrastructure. The digital economy could thus move forward without infrastructure impediment,
providing significant economic growth.
Distributed Energy Resources and Microgrids
Distributed energy resources (DER), including storage devices, embody a key set of technologies
that also help utilities and service providers offer consumers a spectrum of services. For example, DER facilitates the provision of peaking power, backup power, as well as premium power
that meets demands for high SQRA. Additionally, DER can be used as a tool to aid in volt/VAR
management to improve power system operations.
Distributed storage technologies also play an important role here. For example, installing a
battery system at or near the consumer’s facility provides a buffer against unexpected outages,
price shocks, new peak demand charges, and hourly electricity price fluctuations. Installing
44
V: Technologies That Foster a Revolution in Consumer Services
Figure 5-2. The consumer portal can enable a range of consumer services.
battery systems or thermal energy storage systems in homes and businesses enables off-peak
energy use for heating and cooling during peak periods, potentially reducing consumers’ electric
bills and helping utilities and system operators smooth their load curves.
The synergistic relationship between DER and microgrids aids provision of services, such as
premium power. For example, one dc distribution option uses a high temperature superconducting dc loop bus to integrate bulk power from a transmission network with local DER. Emergence
of such a network would require development and widespread use of low-cost dc/ac converter
technology to provide power to retail consumers. Such superconducting dc loops could provide
premium reliability power for large urban regions, compared to today’s networked distribution
systems that serve mainly downtown areas (see Figure 5-3).
Bulk Energy Storage
Bulk energy storage plays a key role in supporting the
power delivery system infrastructure needed for consumer
services. Despite this important role, electricity cannot be
easily stored today. Without an “inventory” to access,
utilities have little flexibility in managing electricity
production and delivery. Likewise, intermittent renewable
resources—such as solar and wind—cannot be relied upon
for hourly electricity supply. Although some commercially
proven technologies can store electricity by converting and
storing it in another energy form—such as in flywheels, pumped storage, and batteries—only
2.5% of North American generation capacity, for example, uses such plants. This is because most
V: Technologies That Foster a Revolution in Consumer Services
45
Fuel
Cell
AC
Generation
AC
DC
DC
DC
DC
Ring
Bus
DC
Storage
DC
DC
DC
AC
DC
AC
Load
Load
AC
Load
Figure 5-3. Basic dc ring bus system with parallel converters and dc choppers provides
superior power reliability by isolating consumers from system disturbances.
Power Line Communications
Digital power line communications technology
enables data communications, including Internet
traffic, to be transmitted over power distribution
networks at high speeds. This leverages the existing
power delivery system infrastructure to provide a
range of broadband information services to consumers. Initial advances in digital power line
technology have primarily been hampered by lack of
stakeholder knowledge regarding the characteristics
of the electrical environment and the electromagnetic
compatibility issues related to broadband data
service through power lines.
The main technical issues related to digital power
line communication technology include the inherent
presence and variability of electrical noise; the wide
46
V: Technologies That Foster a Revolution in Consumer Services
variety of power line “network” propagation characteristics; the complexity of sending data through
distribution system transformers; and the need to
reduce cost-per-point ratios through high-volume
manufacturing and integration. New technologies
using advanced data processing techniques,
innovative signal encoding, and energy spectrum
spreading have demonstrated the potential for
retrieving data signals even after passing over long
distances and through or bridging transformers.
Bringing together the many industry, regulatory,
utility, communications, and other stakeholder groups
will help bridge knowledge gaps and secure multiindustry cooperation in overcoming the technical
barriers preventing digital power line communication
from becoming a reality.
storage options (except pumped hydro and compressed air) are relatively unproven; their value
proposition is complex and poorly understood; and the uncertainties of changing regulatory rules
makes storage options too risky for most investors.
Public and private organizations need to collaborate to analyze the costs and benefits of existing
storage options, including pumped hydro, compressed air, and battery plants. Additional recommended work includes considering the potential return-on-investment (ROI) of enhancing existing storage options and building new ones. Achieving these goals will involve the development
of sophisticated tools to predict the costs of producing large-scale storage systems 5–20 years in
the future. It will also require new models to simulate the economic characteristics of future
power delivery system conditions to predict the potential benefits of storage options to generation, transmission, and distribution owners as well as end-use consumers. Once accurate cost,
benefit, and ROI estimates are available, the next step will be a series of RD&D projects designed
to build large-scale, lower-cost storage modules and demonstrate them at appropriate utility sites
under real-world conditions. During these demonstrations, the collection and analysis of cost
and performance data will be a high priority. Finally, to address investor concerns about existing
or new storage options, high-end communications to key stakeholders will be essential.
Transforming Retail Markets
To enable the offering of services, work is needed in several technology areas related to retail
markets. For example, service providers need a new methodology for the design of service
programs for electricity consumers, including auxiliary provisions for insurance, curtailments,
and other features. This methodology must recognize that retail sales is now a competitive
business—a service program wins a consumer by serving the particular needs and preferences of
that consumer. A service provider needs innovative financial instruments to hedge the risk it
absorbs whenever it does not pass through the real-time price to a consumer. At the same time,
consumers need help devising ways they can participate profitably in markets by providing
dispatchable or curtailable electric loads, especially by providing reserves. As advanced billing,
metering, and real-time control devices and methodologies are widely installed, they must be
integrated with the service plans designed to exploit them.
To enable the efficient operation of retail markets, rapid, open access to data is essential. Development of data and communications standards for emerging markets can increase information
accessibility almost immediately. In addition, these standards will enable software vendors to
prepare modular products more quickly to serve the needs of regional power markets.
To date, power market design changes have been typically implemented in the field, with little
or no empirical testing of how they will affect market conditions. Contributing to this problem is
slow feedback as to the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of specific market changes. California’s
restructuring experience illustrates how the effects of real-world testing can be disastrous. To test
the viability of various power market design options before they are put into practice and to
account for market contingencies in system operations, power market simulation software is
needed to help all parties involved in setting up and regulating power markets (see Figure 5-4).
Power market simulation software now under development promises to help RTOs, regulators,
V: Technologies That Foster a Revolution in Consumer Services
47
and other parties involved in the design of power markets test how their markets will react to
various regulatory and operational changes prior to implementing these changes in the real
world. Specifically, a market simulator would help provide critical insights on alternatives for
congestion management, tariff administration, system planning, and interregional coordination.
Is Your Refrigerator on the Internet?
As part of the transformation to a digital society, microprocessors are now being incorporated
into residential appliances, such as refrigerators, washers, and microwave ovens. For example,
Electrolux is field testing its Internet refrigerator, the Screenfridge, in 50 homes in
Copenhagen.[20] The Amana Messenger Side-By-Side Refrigerator includes smart electronic
technology that monitors and alerts users to refrigerator functions and power outages.[21]
The modern refrigerator is smarter than its nondigital predecessor, providing information about
food inventory, usage, and temperature. Using its memory, this appliance can report the age,
remaining freshness, and schedule for replenishment of perishable foods. Its temperature and
humidity controls not only signal the time to start and stop, but also set operating levels to
conserve energy or maximize performance depending on the chosen program.
Further market research is needed to ensure that these appliances offer what consumers seek.
For example, preliminary market research shows that manufacturers must educate consumers at
the point of sale about the benefits of digital appliances, such as energy efficiency and convenience, while continuing to meet consumer expectations for performance.
60
Without
50
With
Cost
Price
40
30
20
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Quantity
Figure 5-4. Market simulation software could, for example, predict the effects of demand bidding on
the price of electricity, given a set of market parameters.
48
V: Technologies That Foster a Revolution in Consumer Services
Improved Market Structures to Expand Consumer Services
Confusion over roles, rules and responsibilities after the first wave of power industry restructuring in the U.S. has significantly reduced utility investment in new technology. Current incentives
are inadequate to justify the higher levels of risk imposed by the uncertainties of restructuring.
Therefore, regulators and legislators at the state and federal levels may need to reconsider
incentives for robust investment in new technology. The goal of these improved market structures are to enable expanded consumer service applications and prevent the rapid obsolescence
of the power system infrastructure. Regulatory certainty alone would go a long way toward
reducing the cost of capital. Incentives could range from accelerated depreciation schedules to
the lifting of rate caps.
Financial Risk Management That Accommodates Consumer Services
A critical barrier to achieving wide availability of consumer services, as well as enhancing power
delivery infrastructure, is the rising financial risks that have resulted from restructuring of the
electric power industry in the U.S., for example. The regulatory compact—in place for decades
prior to current ongoing restructuring of the U.S. electric power industry—compensated most
utilities for prudent investments and procurement costs, and also insured consumers against
retail price volatility by smoothing rates over long periods. The new financial risks in the
restructured power industry have resulted from removal of risk hedges that were built into the
vertical integration of utilities. Essentially, restructuring has unraveled the elaborate scheme of
risk management that was implicit in the regulatory compact adapted to vertically integrated
utilities. To accommodate retail competition in the electric power industry, a research program
could define a new regulatory compact that provides an efficient allocation of risk in the industry. It should also reduce overall risk, and enable a return to the low cost of capital that was a
principal advantage of the previous compact.
Conclusion
Figure 5-5 illustrates how the enabling technologies discussed in this section relate to the three
difficult challenges that must be met to foster a revolution in consumer services. Table 5-1
identifies the key responsible parties for each of these technologies.
V: Technologies That Foster a Revolution in Consumer Services
49
Table 5-1.
Critical enabling technologies and responsible parties to
foster a revolution in consumer services.
Critical Enabling Technology
Responsible Parties (in alphabetical order)
Smart power delivery system
DOE/E/E2I/U/V
Distributed energy resources
and microgrids
C/DOE/E/E2I/PUC/U/V
Power line communications
E2I/FCC/U/V
Bulk energy storage
C/DOE/E/E2I/U/V
Transforming retail markets
DOE/E/FERC/PUC/U
Internet-connected “smart” appliances
C/DOE/E/U/V
Improved market structures to
expand consumer services
DOE/E/FERC/PUC/U
Financial risk management that
accommodates consumer services
DOE/E/FERC/PUC/U
Key:
C: Commercial (including consultants and other private sector entities); DOE: U.S.
Department of Energy; E: EPRI: E2I: Electricity Innovation Institute; FCC: Federal Communications Commission; FERC: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; PUC: Public
Utility Commissions; U: Utilities; V: Vendors
Power line communications
Transforming retail markets
Improved market structures to
expand consumer services
DC5: Transforming power
markets
Financial risk management that
accomodates consumer services
Internet-connected
smart appliances
Smart power delivery system
Distributed energy resources
and microgrids
Bulk energy storage
advancements
DC6: Creating the infrastructure
for a digital society
Revolution
in consumer
services
DC4: Exploiting the strategic value
of bulk energy storage technologies
Enabling technology
Difficult challenge
Destination
Figure 5-5. The enabling technologies in this section relate to the three difficult challenges that must
be met to foster a revolution in consumer services.
50
V: Technologies That Foster a Revolution in Consumer Services
VI
Technologies That Boost Economic
Productivity and Prosperity
In addition to helping reach their respective destinations, most of the technologies described in
the preceding two sections also stimulate economic growth, productivity, and prosperity. This
section summarizes additional enabling technologies that target this destination (“boosting
economic productivity and prosperity”) as a primary benefit. These include the technologies in
the following areas:
• Advances in enabling technology platforms
• Electric transportation
• Improved end-use efficiency
Enabling Technology Platforms
Over the years, the course of science and technology has been periodically galvanized by the
emergence of innovations so fertile, robust, and far-reaching that they have changed the course of
progress. In modern times, the most important of these enabling technology platforms has been
electrification, which has not only come to drive modern industry, business, and quality of life,
but in many ways has become the engine of innovation itself. Other key platforms of the past
century—including mass production, telecommunications, aircraft technology, polymer chemistry,
environmental science, and the computer—have also changed our lives in fundamental ways.
What they have in common is their ability to break long-standing limits of efficiency and capability, improve productivity, and spur the overall reach and tempo of progress around the world.
The following four technology platforms that appear to have a pervasive potential for furthering
the Roadmap’s goals have been selected for emphasis:
• Biomimetic materials
• Smart materials and structures
• Sensors
• Information technology
R&D programs aimed at achieving technological breakthroughs in these areas require a longer
time horizon and a broader focus than advances in other areas.
Biomimetic Materials. Biomimetic materials—man-made substances that imitate the characteristics of natural substances or systems—offer a variety of potential applications. For example,
photovoltaic cells may be improved using light-gathering and self-assembly mechanisms suggested by plant photosynthesis. Hydrogen production and the desalinization of seawater are
possibilities for a biomimetic process based on light-induced decomposition of water. Miming
the ability of some biological systems to pump protons across cellular membranes may allow the
development of advanced fuel cells that operate at room temperature. Small smart sensors may
be “grown” for applications in rotating machinery such as vapor compression system compressors for heating, cooling, and refrigeration. Realization of these biomimetic applications requires
a better understanding of the natural processes being copied and substantial research on how
similar functions can be engineered in a man-made system.
Smart Materials and Structures. Smart materials and structures (SMSs) have the unique capability to sense and physically respond to changes in their environments (e.g., changes in temperature, pH, or magnetic field). Generally consisting of a sensor, an actuator, and a processor, SMS
devices based on such materials as piezoelectric polymers, shape-memory alloys, hydrogels, and
fiber optics can function autonomously in an almost biological manner. On the power delivery
system, smart materials could monitor and assess the condition of conductors, breakers, and
transformers in real-time to avoid outages (see Figure 6-1). These materials can also enable
in-situ repair of underground cables; self diagnosis and self repair are possible using adaptive
structures, artificial intelligence, pattern analysis and neural networks to optimize performance.
Smart materials could also be used to adjust transmission line loads according to real-time
thermal measurements. Critical capability gaps relate to integrating smart materials into sensors,
Advanced
Sensors
Communications
Embedded in
transmission
equipment,
measures
temperature in
real-time
Communication
between advanced
sensors, smart
materials, etc., and
substations and
control centers
Nanostructures
Ultra-strong
transmission
lines with low sag
and high currentcarrying capacity
Adjust line loads,
increase transmission
capacity and reliability,
make optimal use of
transmission assets
Improved
system operator
interface
displays
Information
Technology
Real-time
condition
assessment of
transmission
assets
Smart
Materials
Figure 6-1. Advances in the areas of nano-structures, sensors, communications, information
technology, and smart materials can all improve transmission asset utilization.
52
VI: Technologies That Boost Economic Productivity and Prosperity
actuators, and processors; embedding the SMS components into the structure to be controlled;
and facilitating communication between smart structure components and the external world.
The miniaturization push, led primarily by the makers of integrated circuits, is now being
ratcheted from the micro-scale to the nano-scale, a size a thousand times smaller. Nanotechnology operates on the level of individual molecules and atoms—the basic building blocks of
matter. By learning how to handle and assemble these blocks appropriately, researchers hope to
develop materials and functional devices unlike any that presently exist. Nano-based improvements have been conceived for biocompatibility, diagnostic imaging, and implant technology.
Materials science is another fertile application area. Hybrid photovoltaic cells based on conducting polymers and semiconductor nanorods have demonstrated good efficiencies in the laboratory
and could dramatically reduce the cost of solar cells. Nano-scale electronics are the only hope
for making circuits smaller than they are now. Here, the ultimate goal is development of molecular-scale, high-speed, high capacity electronic circuits. Basic transistors have already been created
from organic molecules, but the feasibility of building complicated nano-scale electronic or
mechanical devices is likely to be stymied for some time by fabrication problems, quantum
effects, and communication difficulties.
A newly discovered type of carbon molecule called fullerenes exhibit extraordinary properties,
including high strength, toughness, and both metallic and semiconducting electrical characteristics. Most potential applications involve the carbon nanotube, which is a long, hollow tube with
tremendous tensile strength that could be wound into an ultra-strong structural cable. Use of
shorter nanotube strings in metal, ceramic, or polymer composites would create stronger, lighter,
more versatile materials than are currently available in any form. Electrical applications include
highly conductive (more than ten times greater than copper), ultra-strong wires and cables with
low sag and high current-carrying capacity. Because nanotubes are incredibly thin and have such
versatile electrical properties, they are seen as ideal building blocks for nanoscale electronic
devices. Realization of such possibilities is highly dependent on developing processes for
producing high-quality fullerenes in industrial quantities at reasonable cost and in finding ways
to manipulate and orient nanotubes into regular arrays.
Sensors. The power industry, with its huge capital investment in expensive machinery and its
complicated, extremely dynamic power delivery system, has an especially pressing need for
advanced sensors that are inexpensive enough to be used in distributed applications throughout the power system (see Figure 6-2). Continued development of digital control systems to
replace far-less-accurate analog and pneumatic controls is a key research focus. Advanced
fiber optic sensors—devices based on sapphire fibers or fiber Bragg gratings, for instance—are
especially important because of their versatility, small size, and freedom from magnetic interference. Overcoming today’s limitations on temperature, robustness, versatility, and size will
facilitate attainment of a number of long-standing power delivery system needs, including
distributed measurement of transformer winding temperatures, and microsensors for voltage
and current measurement.
Information Technology. Expanded interconnection, distributed systems, automated control,
and other trends in the power industry will place significant new demands on information
VI: Technologies That Boost Economic Productivity and Prosperity
53
Figure 6-2. Sensors can be deployed throughout the power delivery system to enhance reliability, aid
system operation, and reduce maintenance cost.
technology capabilities in future systems, especially the power delivery infrastructure. Monitoring and controlling the highly dynamic power delivery system requires the application of data
mining techniques to recognize patterns of healthy and problematic system operation. Data
mining based on cutting-edge artificial intelligence concepts (e.g., neural networks, fuzzy logic,
and rough sets) is the best bet for extracting usable knowledge from such complex networks.
Advanced data mining applications also include analysis of complex sets of consumer research
data, power delivery system equipment failure analysis, and optimal equipment maintenance
scheduling. Improved interface displays that help power delivery system operators visualize the
state of the system are also needed to ensure that important information is not masked by a glut
of irrelevant details. Virtual reality technology is expected to be of help in power delivery
system operations planning and maintenance training. Other IT applications involve improvement of such human aspects as internal knowledge retention and routing, as well as the upgrading of information security and privacy protection.
Electric Transportation
Electric drive vehicles (EDVs) employ electric propulsion technologies and include hybrid
electric vehicles (both grid-connected and grid independent HEVs) and purely battery-powered
EVs. Comparing a baseline future in 2025 in the U.S., for example, with a future in which 50%
of U.S. vehicles are EDVs (at least 30% more fuel efficient that conventional vehicles) and 50%
of those EDVs are connected to the power delivery system (at least 30% more fuel efficient than
grid independent EDVs), yields the following projected benefits:
• Reduce petroleum consumption by 1.5 billion barrels per year (over 4 million barrels per day).
• Reduce the U.S. trade deficit by $25 billion per year.
54
VI: Technologies That Boost Economic Productivity and Prosperity
• Enhance U.S. GDP by $38 billion per year, based only on the redirection of petroleum expenditures to electricity and household goods.
• Create an expected 440,000 jobs per year.
• Significantly reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and
nitrogen oxides, saving over $9 billion per year.
• Reduce the need to protect oil supplies in the Persian Gulf, with an estimated savings of
$7.5 billion per year.
• Reduce the susceptibility to oil price shocks and reduce the “oil import premium” due to
demand (monopolistic) and disruption costs of oil dependence at a savings of $7.5 billion per
year (U.S. dollars).[22]
Market transformation from conventional vehicles to EDVs will require the resolution of critical
capability gaps in a range of areas (see Figure 6-3):
• Vehicle and propulsion systems
• Production and manufacturing technologies
• Grid and system integration technologies
• Government policy
• Market conditions and consumer awareness
• Mass transportation
Vehicle and
propulsion
system
technologies
Grid and
system
integration
technologies
Production and
manufacturing
technologies
Market
transformation
Market
conditions and
consumer
awareness
Government
policy
Mass
transportation
Figure 6-3. A market transformation from conventional vehicles to
electric drive vehicles will require a range of efforts.
VI: Technologies That Boost Economic Productivity and Prosperity
55
Vehicle and Propulsion System Technologies. In order for EDVs to compete against conventional
vehicles, EDVs must exhibit comparable performance and affordability. EDVs are a combination
of new and existing technologies integrated in unique systems. Typical EDV components include
energy storage systems (e.g., battery, possibly ultra-capacitors, and fuel), electric motors, regenerative braking, power management systems, heat displacement systems, safety systems, and auxiliary power systems. For hybrid grid-independent EDVs, these technologies are already developed
and have been incorporated into Honda’s Insight and Civic and Toyota’s Prius. Cost reduction
and incorporation of the hybrid drive into a larger family of vehicles is now the driving challenge for these systems.
The next step in development will be the plug-in version of these (so-far) grid-independent
configurations. Potential future work will be required to define the value of these vehicles as a
provider of vehicle-to-grid power. Although the stage is already set for the development of the
first grid-connected HEVs, additional efforts will be required in the following five areas:
• Battery Energy Storage. Battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) have the largest technical
potential for efficiency and environmental benefits among advanced vehicle technologies.
However, two decades of intense R&D have failed to develop BEV batteries capable of meeting
the performance requirements and cost constraints for mass-marketable BEVs when extended
range is the key driver. However, plug-in HEVs (PHEVs) promise to achieve most of the
petroleum savings, efficiency and emission benefits of BEVs at substantially lower cost and
without the BEVs’ range limitations. Battery costs nevertheless will account for most of the
cost increment of PHEVs over conventional vehicles. Moreover, in PHEV service, batteries
must deliver substantially higher specific power and longer cycle life than in BEV service.
PHEV batteries are, therefore, a critical gap technology for EDV market transformation.
• Fuel Cell Battery Hybrid Electric Vehicles. PHEVs could become an enabling technology and
strategy for the successful introduction of fuel cell vehicles (see Figure 6-4). However, automotive fuel cell-battery plug-in electric power plants and vehicles have not yet been developed,
and their postulated advantages remain to be proven. Critical gaps in the realization of competitive fuel cell PHEVs include the following:
– Lack of battery technology proven to meet PHEV requirements
– Lack of system designs
– Undeveloped subsystem and system control strategies for full realization of the expected
environmental and efficiency benefits
– Lack of validation of these benefits on the prototype level.
• Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Vehicles. Federal, state agencies, and private sector automotive and
fuel cell companies are making a significant research investment to prove the viability of fuel
cells as an energy source for transportation vehicles. The driving issues remain the cost and
reliability of the fuel cell systems in the vehicles themselves and the high cost of the infrastructure to ensure fuel availability for initial market entry customers and for a future large
market penetration.
Over the last few years, increased funding has produced encouraging progress in hydrogen
used as a non-CO2 producing fuel (since its combustion product is water vapor) for EVs (and
electricity production via fuel cells). The long-term vision for hydrogen is production via
electrolysis of water using off-peak electricity (e.g., from wind, photovoltaic or nuclear plants),
56
VI: Technologies That Boost Economic Productivity and Prosperity
rather than reforming methane or any other chemical process using fossil-based fuel. A key
technical challenge is development of safe, reliable, and low-cost storage systems for the offpeak generated hydrogen. At present, low-pressure hydrogen (e.g., 30–300 psia) is mechanically compressed and stored in high-pressure tanks, vessels, and pipelines (e.g., 2000–5000
psia) for application to fuel cell EVs. High-pressure electrolyzers are currently in the conceptual design and lab-scale proof-of-principle stage. When coupled with high-pressure storage
vessels and high-pressure fuel cells, economically attractive electric energy storage systems
based on a hydrogen cycle could become commercially viable.
Hybrids
Electric
Vehicles
2000
2005
Plug-in
Hybrids
2010
Plug-in
Fuel Cells
Fuel
Cells
H2
H2
2015
Electric drive system maturity
Figure 6-4. Electric vehicle progression from today through 2015.
• On Board Charging Systems. Charging practices in the mature golf and utility EV markets,
developed over the past 40 years, use an off-board charger and dedicated charge space for
each vehicle. Improvements and advances in solid-state devices over the past few decades
have led to a new generation of chargers that operate at a significantly higher efficiency, with
performance advantages over earlier technologies. Advances in personnel protection systems
have led to new devices that are optimized for use with these new chargers. As a result, a
common charger design that can connect to any standard 120 V (and 240 V) ac electrical
outlet is now practical. Industry analyses recommend developing a common global charging
system architecture for a broad range of small specialty electric vehicle (SSEV) platforms,
including neighborhood, golf, and utility EVs plus a broad range of electric products such as
lift/boom vehicles, order pickers, and lift trucks. An industry alliance has established the
“Common Small Specialty Electric Vehicle Charging Architecture Development Program” to
assemble representatives with common needs and interests to contribute to and share in a
joint development program.
• Mobile Distributed Generation. Because EDVs are parked most of the time, they are, in
essence, a “wasted asset” 20 of every 24 hours. Yet to the utility, they offer value whenever
they are plugged in, as a load (the usual role) but also as a generator. These vehicle-to-grid
(V2G) services could be provided while maintaining exceptionally low emissions. Plug-in
EDVs could provide several distinct services as a generator, including grid regulation, spinning reserves, a source of energy, and emergency services. Potential research would examine
VI: Technologies That Boost Economic Productivity and Prosperity
57
the infrastructure, life-cycle cost, operations and other issues surrounding the use of EDVs
(e.g., plug-in HEVs, BEVs, and electric forklifts) to provide power services to regional
transmission organizations, as well as emergency and/or uninterruptible power services to
electricity users.
Production and Manufacturing Technologies. Currently, EDVs are more expensive to produce
compared to conventional vehicles. The component parts are more expensive, and production
lines for EDVs have not achieved the economy-of-scale needed due to inadequate volume. In
addition, EDVs must show much promise before auto companies are likely to make the huge
capital investments involved in creating a new production line. R&D advances in manufacturing
processes for these vehicles and their component systems could improve these processes so that
vehicles can be produced in greater numbers and at lower costs.
Grid and System Integration Technologies. “Vehicle-to-grid” (V2G) systems involve a bi-directional
system that allows the flow of electricity to and from the vehicle and grid. This could be an
attractive feature for both consumers and utilities, but the on-board technology must be perfected
and made available at an affordable price. Aside from the on-board system, another concern
involves power management at the “grid-end.” To accommodate a significant number of gridconnected EDVs using V2G systems, a better understanding of the behavior of the power delivery system is needed, as well as knowledge of how the power delivery system can and will
respond to the random nature of vehicle use.
Government Policy. “Nontechnical” critical capability gaps exist within the area of government
policy (federal, state, and local). Important areas where government policy influences the emergence of EDVs into transportation markets include regulatory barriers, standardization requirements, subsidies for conventional and alternative transportation fuels, safety requirements, tax
policies, and government R&D. These government activities all have the potential to affect EDV
market penetration and should be explored in an effort to reduce any barriers to market entry.
Market Conditions and Consumer Awareness. Hybrid drive vehicles currently available in the market and those announced by all the major automotive manufacturers have established a positive
market force. Consumer interest and product demand have surpassed current production capability. As consumers better understand the value of these vehicles, and the vehicles are marketed
appropriately in terms of energy conservation and quality of life, demand will continue to rise.
Mass Transportation. Hybrid drive 40-foot transit buses now being delivered to the New York
City Transit Authority have demonstrated better fuel economy than conventional diesel-powered
vehicles. Fuel cell transit buses are being developed as prototypes, but the high cost will limit
marketability in the near term. Hybrid drive and plug-in hybrid drive are on the horizon for
paratransit vehicles, shuttle buses, and 40-foot heavy-duty transit vehicles.
58
VI: Technologies That Boost Economic Productivity and Prosperity
Improved End-Use Efficiency
Improved energy-use efficiencies reduce high technology industries’ and businesses’ operating
costs, better enabling these industries to reach the productivity levels required to succeed in very
competitive markets. At the same time, improvements in the efficiency of electricity use can
help relieve capacity constraints of the power delivery system, as well as provide environmental benefits.
More efficient electricity use can continue to fuel economic growth and provide these other
benefits in a variety of ways, including development and adoption of technologies in the following areas:
• Industrial electrotechnologies and motor systems
• Improvement in indoor air quality
• Advanced lighting
• Automated electronic equipment recycling processes
To accelerate realization of a more energy-efficient future, the Energy Future Coalition’s End-Use
Efficiency Working Group—comprised of business consumers, efficiency analysts, organized
labor, and state and local officials—recommended adoption of the following three initiatives:
• Provide federal cofunding to expand state and utility energy efficiency programs.
• Expand the federal ENERGY STAR programs.
• Expand and improve energy efficiency training programs for architects, builders, contractors,
building operators, and industrial energy managers.
In general, EFC asserts “increasing . . . energy efficiency . . . promises to reduce . . . dependency on
oil, slow the pace of global climate change, make industry more profitable, create employment,
and improve . . . competitiveness.” [1]
Industrial Electrotechnologies and Motor Systems. The industrial sector consumes about one third
of all energy used in the United States.[23] Improved electrotechnologies improve sector energy
efficiency while reducing waste, protect the environment, and enhance the global competitive
position of companies that employ them, improving industrial productivity and employment.
Examples of specific needs include the following:
• Ways to improve water/solid separation using freeze concentration processes.
• More-efficient, uniform microwave devices that provide low cost, controllable, energy-efficient
heating devices for curing of a wide range of products.
• Development of polymer-based membranes for purifying natural gas from alternative sources,
such as landfills and anaerobic digesters.
• Nonthermal plasma technologies (i.e., electron beam, pulsed-corona discharge, dielectric
barrier and flow stabilized discharge) to oxidize noxious air emissions.
VI: Technologies That Boost Economic Productivity and Prosperity
59
Industrial motor systems used in industrial space heating, cooling, and ventilation systems
represent the largest single electrical end use in the U.S. economy (25% of all electricity sold).[24]
Research is needed to develop motors that use energy more efficiently and are able to “ride
through” a variety of power quality disturbances. In addition, better control systems are needed
that enable motors to follow load more closely by continuously adjusting the amount of power
delivered to the motor.
Indoor Air Quality. Poor indoor air quality (IAQ) can cause adverse health effects as well as loss
in workplace productivity. Potential gains from improving human health and performance are
over $200 billion/year in the United States and perhaps four times that level globally.[25] Approximately 25% of these savings are due to reduced healthcare costs and absenteeism. The remainder is attributable to improved workplace productivity. These savings will not be achieved
unless a major effort is undertaken to develop technologies to improve indoor air quality by
removing second-hand smoke, airborne pathogens, and airborne organic components.
The four general methods for improving IAQ are dilution (ventilation), capture (filtration),
destruction and source removal. Advanced ventilation techniques have been developed to handle
make up air separately from recirculated air in order to efficiently dehumidify the make up
(outside) air and efficiently condition both streams. Advanced filtration using electrically activated filter media offer the opportunity to remove contaminants as small as .005 microns with a
relatively low pressure drop. Some electrotechnologies use light in various ways to oxidize
volatile organic compounds (VOCs), neutralize tobacco smoke, and destroy pathogens such as
tuberculosis bacilli. These technologies should be used as the basis for a program to transform
the way indoor air is conditioned in order to increase longevity and quality of life.
Advanced Lighting Systems. Lighting accounts for 9% of the electricity used in residential
buildings and about 33% of all commercial electricity use in the U.S. Energy efficiency improvements in lighting can be made in the areas of light sources and lighting controls. In the light
source area, laboratory research at Sandia National Laboratory has shown that incandescent light
sources using a microscopic lattice of tungsten bars rather than conventional tungsten can
increase efficiency from 5–60%. DOE, EPRI, and Osram Sylvania work aims to double the
efficacy of fluorescent lamps by developing multi-photon phosphor materials.
To improve the efficacy of low-pressure discharge lamps, the Advanced Light Source Research
Consortium (ALITE) was formed in 1997. The research team consisted of Los Alamos National
Laboratory (LANL), National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), University of Wisconsin, Polytechnic University of New York, Osram Sylvania Inc (OSI), and EPRI. During 1996–
2000, a greatly improved understanding of the low pressure discharge lamp was gained, resulting
in new lamp designs that could minimize losses and improve the mercury-rare gas discharge
lamp efficacy by 8–10%. New atomic species were investigated as lamp sources, with barium
showing the most promise, but mercury remained superior in performance. The current ALITE
program is building on this work. Team members for the low-pressure discharge work are now
EPRI, LANL, NIST, University of Illinois, General Electric, and Philips Lighting. The ALITE
program is also investigating high intensity discharge light sources, with the aim of improving
efficacy from 75 lumens/watt to 150 lumens/watt.
60
VI: Technologies That Boost Economic Productivity and Prosperity
Research is also needed to develop lighting systems based on novel lighting sources, such as
ultra-violet vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers and light emitting polymers. These technologies
produce higher output levels per unit of energy that can be precisely controlled under a variety
of control scenarios, thus resulting in reduced heat generation within the lighting system.
Among the needs in the lighting control area are retrofit lighting controls to achieve fluorescent
lamp dimming, development of instant-start load shedding ballasts for fluorescent lighting
systems, and the development of photosensor and lighting control systems optimized for common classroom situations.
In addition to advancing lighting and control technologies, assessing how lighting affects and
can improve human productivity is needed. Providing appropriate lighting has been recognized
as an aid to productivity for many years, but research in several areas—including circadian
photobiology and “message” responses to light—is needed to capitalize on this effect. For
example, circadian photobiology involves developing an understanding of how the conditions of
light exposure affect the human circadian system and impact task performance. The second area
involves establishing a lexicon of lighting by determining what “messages” different lighting
conditions deliver in a given context.
Automated Electronic Equipment Recycling Processes. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) has estimated that by 2004, there will be over 300 million outdated computers in the U.S.
These products present a unique recycling challenge given their complexity, because the average
computer is about 23% plastic but contains significant quantities of lead, aluminum, iron,
copper, and a host of other rare earth metals.[26] The U.S. Department of Defense is currently
funding a detailed study, called DEER2, of the best economic approach to recycling
electronics. While this study is aimed primarily at the huge amounts of discarded military
electronics, its findings will have a significant impact on commercial recycling of consumer
electronics and will serve as a blueprint for research activities associated with electronics
products. Ultimately, “industrial ecology” can link the energy and materials streams of many
different uses to minimize waste, effort, and cost, further improving efficiency and productivity.
Conclusion
Figure 6-5 illustrates how the enabling technologies discussed in this section relate to the three
difficult challenges that must be met to boost economic productivity and prosperity. Table 6-1
identifies the key responsible parties for each of these technologies.
VI: Technologies That Boost Economic Productivity and Prosperity
61
Industrial electrotechnologies
and motor systems
Improvements in
indoor air quality
DC8: High-efficiency
end uses of electricity
Advanced lighting
Electronic equipment
recycling processes
Biomimetic
Smart materials and structures
Boost
economic
productivity
& prosperity
DC9: Advances in enabling
technology platforms
Information technology, sensors
Vehicle and propulsion systems
Production and manufacturing
technologies
Grid and system integration
technologies
DC7: Development
of electricity-based
transportation system
Government policies, market conditions, and consumer awareness
Enabling technology
Mass transportation
Difficult challenge
Destination
Figure 6-5. The enabling technologies in this section relate to the three difficult challenges that must be met to boost economic productivity and prosperity.
Table 6-1.
Critical enabling technologies and responsible parties:
boosting economic productivity and prosperity.
Critical Enabling Technology
Responsible Parties (in alphabetical order)
Biomimetic materials
C/DOE/E2I/V
Smart materials and structures
C/DOE/E2I/V
Sensors
C/DOE/E2I/V
Information technology
C/DOE/E/U/V
EDV vehicle and propulsion systems
Auto Mfrs/DOE
EDV production and manufacturing technologies
Auto Mfrs/DOE
EDV grid and system integration technologies
IEEE/U/V
EDV government policy
DOC/DOD/DOE/DOT
EDV market conditions and consumer awareness
DOE/EPA/U/V
EDV mass transportation
DOE/DOT/EPA/V
Industrial electrotechnologies and motor systems
C/E/U/V
Indoor air quality
C/DOE/E/V
Advanced lighting systems
C/DOE/E/U/V
Automated electronic equipment recycling processes
C/E/U/V
Key:
62
Auto Mfrs: Auto manufacturers; C: Commercial (including consultants and other private sector entities);
DOC: U.S. Department of Commerce; DOD: U.S. Department of Defense; DOE: U.S. Department of Energy;
DOT: U.S. Department of Transportation; EPA: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; E: EPRI; E2I: Electricity
Innovation Institute; FERC: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; IEEE: Institute of Electrical and
Electronics Engineers; PUC: Public Utility Commissions; U: Utilities; V: Vendors
VI: Technologies That Boost Economic Productivity and Prosperity
VII
Conclusions
The electric power industry is entering a period of profound change—literally a reinvention
process—that will ultimately affect every aspect of our lives. At the heart of this transformation
is a technical revolution. How effectively the electricity stakeholders, both public and private,
act on this window of opportunity will significantly influence future economic productivity and
competitiveness, security and quality of life, the well-being of the natural environment, and
ultimately, progress toward sustainable global development.
The Challenges
This transformation presents challenges, for today’s power delivery and market infrastructure is
inadequate to meet the following:
• The demands of wholesale competition in the electric power industry.
• Rising consumer needs and expectations.
• The levels of power security, quality, reliability, and availability needed for economic
prosperity.
At the same time, investment in expansion and maintenance of this infrastructure is lagging,
while electricity demand grows and will continue to grow.
The Goals
To address these vulnerabilities, the present power delivery system and market infrastructure can
be enhanced and augmented by the year 2020 via an aggressive, public/private coordinated
effort. This effort involves achievement of the three destinations addressed in this report: (1)
strengthen the power delivery system infrastructure so that it can provide SQRA power that
consumers and society need, (2) enable a revolution in consumer services, and
(3) significantly improve productivity and prosperity. To achieve this, the following critical
enabling technology areas require focused research, design, and development (RD&D):
• Automation solutions that provide an integrated, self-healing, electronically controlled smart
power delivery system that keeps SQRA power flowing, while connecting consumers to
markets via a smart consumer portal.
• An integrated energy and communication system architecture that forms the foundation of a
smart power delivery system.
• Systems, specifications, and models that enable seamless integration of distributed energy
resources into the power delivery system; plus further development of advanced distributed
storage and bulk storage technologies.
• Wide deployment and integrated control of silicon-based power electronics-based controllers in
both transmission and distribution applications, as well as development of advanced controllers based on materials other than silicon.
• A range of power market tools to accommodate changes in wholesale and retail markets
worldwide.
• Electricity use efficiency enhancements, including industrial electrotechnologies and advanced
motors, advanced lighting, indoor air quality, and automated electronic equipment recycling
processes, as well as advances in electric transportation.
The Benefits
By investing in these critical synergistic technology areas, the wide availability of high SQRA
electricity can lead to a range of projected macroeconomic benefits, including a higher productivity growth rate, a decrease in energy intensity, and an economy that expands at a higher GDP
growth rate.
The Call to Action
Although EPRI has taken the lead in initiating the Roadmap endeavor, its future role is to act as
a catalyst for an intensive process of engagement, consensus building, and collaboration among a
diverse set of stakeholders. EPRI invites the participation of energy companies, universities,
government and regulatory agencies, technology companies, associations, public advocacy
organizations, and other interested parties in refining the vision and executing the Electricity
Technology Roadmap. Public/private partnerships are a key mechanism for funding critical
initiatives. Only through collaboration can sufficient resources be committed to reach these goals
and realize these benefits.
64
VII: Conclusions
VIII
For More Information
For further information on the Electricity Technology Roadmap, visit
http://www.epri.com/corporate/discover_epri/roadmap/index.html or contact Steve Gehl at
sgehl@epri.com.
Related Documents
This 2003 Summary and Synthesis report on Power Delivery and Markets is derived from
the overall Electricity Technology Roadmap effort. For more information on the Electricity
Technology Roadmap, refer to the following document:
• Electricity Technology Roadmap: 1999 Summary and Synthesis, EPRI report CI-112677-V1,
July 1999.
EPRI is also planning to publish Electricity Technology Roadmap: 2003 Summary and
Synthesis.
IX
References
1. Energy Future Coalition, Challenge and Opportunity: Charting a New Energy Future,
June 2003, Washington, D.C., www.energyfuturecoalition.org.
2. National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Statistics, Research and
Development in Industry: 2000, Arlington, VA (NSF 03-318), June 2003,
http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/nsf03318/pdf/taba19.pdf.
3. Dale W. Jorgenson, Information Technology and the U.S. Economy, Presidential Address to
the American Economic Association, New Orleans, LA, January 6, 2001.
4. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2003,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/figure_3.html.
5. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) Disturbance Analysis Working Group
(DAWG) database.
6. Pocketbook of Electric Utility Industry Statistics, Edison Electric Institute, 2001 Financial
Review.
7. Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International, SEMI 1999 Annual Report: The
Power of Global.
8. EPRI draft report, Microprocessors and the Digital Revolution, May 2002.
9. Primen, The Cost of Power Disturbances to Industrial & Digital Economy Companies,
June 2001.
10. U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
(NOPR), Remedying Undue Discrimination through Open Access Transmission Service and
Standard Electricity Market Design, Docket No. RM01-12-0000, July 31, 2002.
11. RDI POWERDAT Database.
12. Summary Report—Summer 2002 Eastern Interconnection Pre-Season Study and New Tools
for Community Activity Room, EPRI Report 1007099, July 2002.
13. NERC Transmission Loading Relief logs, www.nerc.com.
14. Steve Silberman, “The Energy Web,” Wired magazine, July 2001,
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/9.07/juice.html.
15. EPRI Journal Online, “Capturing Undocumented Knowledge of Industry Personnel,” May 23,
2002, http://www.epri.com/journal/details.asp?doctype=features&id=389.
16. “Discussion Draft for Distribution and Interconnection R&D Strategic Roadmap Meeting,
January 21–23, 2003,” U.S. Department of Energy, Distributed Energy and Electric Reliability
Program, prepared by National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Resource Dynamics
Corporation, January 2003.
17. “SEMI F42-0600 Test Method for Semiconductor Processing Equipment Voltage Sag Immunity,” (June 2000), and “SEMI F47-0200 Specification for Semiconductor Processing Equipment Voltage Sag Immunity,” (February 2000), SEMI.
18. National Transmission Grid Study, U.S. Department of Energy, May 2002,
http://tis.eh.doe.gov/ntgs/gridstudy/main_screen.pdf.
19. Stephen T. Lee, “A New Vision for Transmission Operation and Planning Under an Open
Power Market,” presented at CIGRE conference, Montreal, Canada, October 7–10, 2003.
20. “Tech Know: Smart Appliances,” Metropolis,
http://www.metropolis.co.jp/tokyo/416/tech.asp.
21. “Smart Refrigeration,” http://www.appliance.com.
22. James J. Winebrake, Electrifying America’s Transportation: A Value Proposition for Electric
Drive Vehicles—An EPRI Roadmap Initiative Draft, April 17, 2002.
23. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2001,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0201a.html.
24. EPRI, EPRI Power Quality Business Unit: Research and Development Plan for Advanced
Motors and Drives, RP2918-15, EPRI TR-101828, July 1996.
25. W. J. Fisk, ASHRAE Journal, May 2002, pages 56–60.
26. http://www.thegreenpc.com/recyclin.htm.
68
IX: References
About EPRI
EPRI creates science and technology solutions
for the global energy and energy services industry.
U.S. electric utilities established the Electric
Power Research Institute in 1973 as a nonprofit
research consortium for the benefit of utility
members, their customers, and society. Now
known simply as EPRI, the company provides a
wide range of innovative products and services
to more than 1000 energy-related organizations
in 40 countries. EPRI’s multidisciplinary team of
scientists and engineers draws on a worldwide
network of technical and business expertise to
help solve today’s toughest energy and environmental problems.
EPRI. Electrify the World
© 2003 Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Inc. All rights
reserved. Electric Power Research Institute and EPRI are registered service marks of the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc.
EPRI. ELECTRIFY THE WORLD is a service mark of the Electric
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