Operations Management Message from the Dean News FA L L 2 0 1 2 The Operations Management (OM) field is thriving at the Smith School of Business. Our faculty is very well known in the academic community and are beginning to be well known in the practitioner community as well. The research ranking of the Operations Management faculty is regularly in the top-10. The faculty are also associate editors in some of the most prestigious journals like Manufacturing & Service Operations Management (M&SOM), Production and Operations Management (POM) and Management Science. Our faculty also work on the most important issues of the day including healthcare operations, pricing and revenue management, product innovation, energy/ environmental issues and social networks. Operations Management is also a well sought after undergraduate degree, and coupled with supply chain management is becoming a niche for our MBA students as well. OM courses now proliferate in our new Master of Science programs. We believe that with good business principles one can do a lot of good in this world. Many of the students from the Smith School of Business work on consulting projects for nonprofit companies, and the single most important toolkit that they use are concepts and ideas from operations management. We are very happy that the faculty in the OM area contribute significantly to the research, teaching and outreach mission of the Smith School. We are confident that our OM alums will also make the world a better place. Dean G. “Anand” Anandalingam Robert H. Smith School of Business, Operations Management Faculty OM Faculty Frank Alt Ph.D., Georgia Institute of Technology Frank Alt is an Associate Professor of Management Science & Statistics. Alt is a recipient of the Krowe Award for Teaching Excellence (1993 and 1996) and the Distinguished IBM-TQ Teaching Award (1994) from the Robert H. Smith School of Business. He was recognized with four stars in the Business Week Guide to the Best Business Schools (1997) for his teaching performance in the MBA program. Alt’s research interests include statistical quality control, applied multivariate analysis, and forecasting with a particular interest and expertise in multivariate process control. Michael Ball Ph.D., Cornell University Michael Ball is the Orkand Corporation Professor of Management Science and the Associate Dean of Faculty and Research. He also holds a joint appointment within the Institute for Systems Research (ISR) in the Clark School of Engineering. Dr. Ball’s research interests are in network optimization and integer programming particularly as applied to problems in transportation systems and supply chain management. He is the CoDirector of NEXTOR, the National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research. Sean Barnes Ph.D., University of Maryland Sean Barnes joined the department as an Assistant Professor of Operations Management in Fall 2012. His current research interests are modeling the transmission of infectious diseases, healthcare operations management, simulation, and network analysis. He has authored work in peer-reviewed publications such as the INFORMS Journal on Computing, and Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology. He has also authored a chapter on Applications of Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation to Healthcare Operations Management to appear in an upcoming book. Margrét Vilborg Bjarnadóttir Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology Margrét Vilborg Bjarnadóttir, is an Assistant Professor of Management Science and Statistics. Prior to joining Smith, she held an academic position with Stanford Graduate School of Business. She specializes in operations research methods using large scale data. Her work spans applications ranging from analyzing nation-wide cross-ownership patterns and systemic risk in finance to drug surveillance and practice patterns in health care. She has consulted with both health care start-ups on risk modeling using health care data as well as governmental agencies such as a central bank on data-driven fraud detection algorithms. Zhi-Long Chen Ph.D., Princeton University Zhi-Long Chen is a Professor of Operations Management. Prior to joining the Smith School in 2001, he was an assistant professor at University of Pennsylvania for 4 years. His research interests cover supply chain scheduling and coordination, routing/scheduling of logistics operations, capacity planning, and dynamic pricing. Dr. Chen has conducted a number of NSF funded research projects and is working closely with industry on several projects in the areas of supply chain optimization and pricing. Wedad Elmaghraby Ph.D., University of California at Berkeley Wedad Elmaghraby is an Associate Professor of Management Science and Operations Management. Prior to joining the Smith School, she was on the faculty of the ISyE at Georgia Institute of Technology and NYU Stern School of Business in the Operations Management group. Her current research interests are in behavioral operations management with an emphasis in (i) pricing and (ii) the design and study of online auctions for business-to-business markets. 2 Robert H. Smith School of Business Michael Fu Ph.D., Harvard University Michael Fu is Ralph J. Tyser Professor of Management Science. In addition, he has a joint appointment with the Institute for Systems Research and an affiliate appointment with the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, both in the Clark School of Engineering. He was named a Distinguished Scholar-Teacher at the University of Maryland for 2004-2005. His research interests include simulation modeling and analysis, operations management, applied probability and queueing theory, with application to manufacturing and finance. Bruce Golden Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology Bruce Golden joined the faculty of the UMD Business School in 1976 and served as a Department Chairman from 1980 to 1996. Currently, he is the France-Merrick Chair in Management Science at the Robert H. Smith School of Business at the UMD. He has received numerous awards, including the Thomas L. Saaty Prize (1994 and 2005), the University of Maryland Distinguished Scholar-Teacher Award (2000), the INFORMS Award for the Teaching of OR/MS Practice (2003), and the INFORMS Computing Society Prize (2005). His research interests include heuristic search, combinatorial optimization, networks, and applied operations research. Raghu Raghavan Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology Raghu Raghavan is Professor of Management Science and Operations Management. His research interests and activities cover a broad domain including- auction design, data mining, economics, information systems, computational marketing, networks, optimization, and telecommunications. He has published on a wide variety of topics and numerous academic outlets such as Management Science, Operations Research, Decision Support Systems, and the INFORMS Journal on Computing. He holds two patents, and has won numerous awards for his work. Ilya Ryzhov Ph.D., Princeton University Ilya Ryzhov is an Assistant Professor of Operations Management and Management Science. His research deals with the role of information in decision analysis, exploring the way in which new information influences and improves decision-making strategies. He develops efficient ways to achieve this balance, with applications in pricing, revenue management, and optimization of energy costs. His work has appeared in Operations Research. He is also the coauthor (with W.B. Powell) of the book Optimal Learning. Tunay Tunca Ph.D., Stanford University Tunay Tunca is an Associate Professor of Operations Management and Management Science. Prior to joining University of Maryland, he was an Associate Professor of Operations, Information, and Technology at Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. He has also held positions as a visiting scholar at Wharton, M.I.T., Hewlett Packard and Yahoo Inc. His research interests include economics of operations and technology management, theoretical and empirical analysis of procurement contracts and processes, economics of security, and the role of information and forecasting in supply chains. Yi Xu Ph.D., University of Pennsylvania Yi Xu is an Assistant Professor of Operations Management. He teaches and conducts research in the areas of operations management with an emphasis on product assortment planning, pricing, product development and innovation, and Marketing and Operations Interfaces. He is particularly interested in exploring mechanisms that spur innovations and developments of new technologies which transform competitive dynamics and enable novel operational strategies. 3 Fall 2012 Operations Management News Selected Recent Publications M. Ball and M. Queyranne, (2009) “Robust M. C. Fu, L.J. Hong and J.Q. Hu, (Dec. M. G. Bardossy and S. Raghavan, (2010) Revenue Management: A Competitive 2009) “Conditional Monte Carlo Estimation "Dual-Based Local Search for the Connected Analysis of Online Booking,” Operations of Quantile Sensitivities,” Management Facility Location and Related Problems," Research, 57, 950-963. Science, 55 (12), 2019-2027. INFORMS Journal on Computing, 22 (4), Y. Lan, M. Ball and I. Karaesmen, M. C. Fu, S. Lele and T. Vossen, (2009) (2011) “Overbooking and Fare-Class “Conditional Monte Carlo Gradient Allocation with Limited Information,” I.O. Ryzhov and W.B. Powell, (2011) Estimation in Economic Design of Control Manufacturing & Service Operations “Information collection on a graph.” Limits”, Production and Operations Management, 13, 194-226. Management, 18 (1), 60-77. Operations Research, 59 (1), 188-201. S. Barnes, B. Golden, E. Wasil, (2010) M. C. Fu, E. Zhou and S.I. Marcus, (2010) "MRSA Transmission Reduction using Agent- Firms Invest in Forecasting Efficiently? “Solving Continuous State POMDPS via Based Modeling and Simulation," INFORMS The Effect of Competition on Demand Density Projection”, IEEE Transactions in Journal on Computing, 22 (4), 635-646. Forecast Investments and Supply Chain Automatic Control, 55 (5), 1101-1116. Coordination," Operations Research, 58 Z.-L. Chen, (2010) “Integrated production C. Groer, B. Golden and E. Wasil, (2009) and outbound distribution scheduling: "The Consistent Vehicle Routing Problem," T. I. Tunca and Q. Wu, (2009) "Multiple Review and extensions,” Operations Manufacturing & Service Operations Sourcing and Procurement Process Selection Research, 58, 130-148. Management, 11 (4), 630-643. with Bidding Events," Management Z.-L. Chen, and N.G. Hall, (2010) “The C. Price, M. Harrington, R. Konewko, B. coordination of pricing and scheduling Golden, E. Wasil and W. Herring, (2011) G. Kok and Y. Xu, (2011) "Optimal and decisions,” Manufacturing & Service “Reducing Boarding in a Post-Anesthesia Competitive Assortments with Endogenous Operations Management, 12, 77-92. Care Unit,” Production and Operations Pricing Under Hierarchical Consumer Choice Management, 20 (3), 431-441. Models," Management 584-602. H. Shin and T. I. Tunca, (2010) "Do W. J. Elmaghraby, S. A. Lippman, C. S. Tang and R. Yin (2009) “Will More Purchasing R. Day and S. Raghavan, (2009) "Matrix Options Benefit Customers?” Production and Bidding in Combinatorial Auctions," Operations Management, 18 (4), 381-401. Operations Research, 57 (4), 916-933. (6), 1592-1610. Science, 55 (5), 763-780. Science, 57 (9), 1546–1563. Recent Honors & Awards Michael Ball Sean Barnes • Senior Editor, POM • INFORMS Fellow • Finalist for the Pierskalla Award for the best paper in Healthcare Management Science (2010) • Associate Editor, Management Science, M&SOM • Received Best Paper Award in Finance and Policy at the 9th USA/Europe ATM 2011 R&D Seminar • Co-Director of NEXTOR, National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research (2009 - present) • Member of National Research Council Panel: Review of Air Traffic Control Enroute Complexity Model (2009, 2010) • Area Editor, Operations Research (2009-2011) • Associate Editor, Operations Research 4 Robert H. Smith School of Business Zhi-Long Chen • Changjiang Scholar Award given by China’s Ministry of Education (2009) • Plenary Talk, Tenth International Conference in Information and Management Sciences, held in Tibet, China (2011) • Associate Editor, Operations Research Wedad Elmagraby • NSF Grant: SBE # 0624202: “Collaborative Research - Consumer Choice and Organizational Decision-Making” (2008) Michael C. Fu • INFORMS Fellow • IEEE Fellow • Winter Simulation Conference Best Theoretical Paper Award (2009) • OR Program Director, National Science Foundation (2010-2012) Bruce Golden • INFORMS Fellow • Ranked first among 30 INFORMS Fellows with respect to h-index and other measures (2008) (continued on p.8) y definition, urgent care patients cannot B for capitated insurance systems such as Kaiser choose when they need to go to the hospital. Permanete and the Geisinger Health System, But hospitals have to choose when, and for how which have a set amount of funding designated long, to offer certain specialized treatments; to for each person they cover, regardless of whether accommodate specialists’ schedules this is usually that person seeks care or not. during the day. Since elective surgeries are also RESEARCH FOCUS: WORTH THE WAIT Bruce Golden usually scheduled during the day, the hospital is Past studies have tended to focus on one quality less busy at night. Therefore, a patient visiting measure, like readmission rates or waiting times, the emergency room in the middle of night often and address the issue from a clinical perspective. gets quicker access to surgery and the intensive They mostly use annually aggregated national care unit (ICU). It is well known that long waiting data, whereas Professor Golden’s study focus is on times can impair health care outcomes, so it within-hospital quality variation. The study data could perhaps be assumed that night patients includes treatment and outcome measures for experience comparably improved outcomes. nearly two million patients and comes from the American College of Surgeons’ National Trauma Seeking to identify the mechanisms driving the Data Bank. The estimation model includes several variations in care quality for trauma patients, measures of quality, but the researchers were France-Merrick Chair Bruce Golden and his careful to avoid including variables that overlap colleagues have taken on this question; they find too much (e.g., the fixed effect of the first trauma that outcomes are worse at night, so factors other center and the fixed effect for each center that than wait times must be having important effects. is based on the first one), so that the variables’ Professor Golden notes, “There is a ‘Golden Hour’ individual predicting power is preserved. Also, in medicine. Not named for me, it describes since the model includes variables that control for the period – also not necessarily 60 minutes in the hospital type (level of trauma center, range length – in which specialized surgery and other of specialists available), they can show that the procedures can do the most good for trauma effect of trauma timing is stronger for lower order patients. Since night arrivals are not waiting as trauma centers. Related Information David Anderson, Gordon Gao, and Bruce Golden “Life is all About Timing: An Examination of Differences in Treatment Quality for Trauma Patients Based on Hospital Arrival Time”, submitted for publication. long for surgery, they are often treated within David Anderson, Carter Price, Bruce Golden, Wolfgang Jank, and Edward Wasil, (Dec. 2011)“Examining the Discharge Practices of Surgeons at a Large Medical Center.” Health Care Management Science, 14 (4), 338-47. hours.” David Anderson, Bruce Golden, Wolfgang Jank, and Edward Wasil, (2012 March)“The Impact of Hospital Utilization on Patient Readmission Rate.” Health Care Management Science, 15 (1), 29-36. this period, but their outcomes are still wanting These trauma centers, which tend to be located when compared to day patients. This is because at rural hospitals, need to be even more strategic senior surgeons tend to work during the day and with their resources. “Common sense solutions, the generalists working at night are reluctant to such as using telecommunications solutions to call in the eye surgeon at four in the morning, access specialized guidance and having specialized for example. Consider also that surgeons may surgeons work evenings on a regular basis, could work the night shift only a few times a month significantly improve outcomes without too much and therefore are tired, not used to keeping such extra investment” suggests Professor Golden. Reforms to hospitals’ internal decision-making Looking at this problem from the trauma care process could bring about across the board results perspective is useful, since the treatment cycle is by addressing chronic problems (e.g., too few relatively short and events in the cycle are easy to specialized surgeons available). This research represent in a mathematical estimation model (did offers valuable insights for managers seeking to the patient require follow-up surgery, 1 for yes, 0 find a mix of hospital resources that can result for no). It is also important because trauma from in consistently high quality care. It suggests that unintentional injury is the number one cause of daytime results are not better because more care death among young, wealth-creating individuals. is available; the degree of care specialization Improving this situation could have a positive available also drives variations in care quality impact on national income, vital at a time of rising resulting from patient arrival time. This means health care costs. Furthermore, reducing the extra that managers cannot just add more care at night; surgeries that result from temporary “patch” instead they need to be strategic with the level of surgeries could result in significant cost savings resources that they make available. 5 Fall 2012 Operations Management News C ompanies are risk-takers: they must make really of-the-moment data, to update or correct decisions under uncertain circumstances his beliefs about an environment,” explains and, although these have immediate profit Dr. Ryzhov. “It performs comparably well to or loss consequences, any result is economic the technically optimal information-collecting information that can improve future choices strategy, while being substantially easier to (and hopefully increase profits). If a company implement in practice.” The formula performs makes a price change and then observes that well in a variety of situations, but its special value demand goes down, it can conclude that future is in application to problems where, for example, consumers may not be willing to pay as much as knowing the demand for one product could they had thought. In industries such as energy provide demand information for similar products A New Way and e-commerce, where prices can change every (known as “correlated beliefs” in the jargon). to Think costs. Firms trading in these markets need a So with this new tool the online information’s About way to learn from the sales fluctuations and economic value is compared with the revenues immediately make better decisions. or costs resulting from the decision; managers On a smaller scale, a firm that performs energy can use it to calibrate their desired balance efficiency upgrades to office buildings has to of revenue and information. In the near term choose combinations of upgrades to offer, it is often worth sacrificing some economic like both efficient light bulbs and windows, rewards in order to collect more and better and online learning can help them find the online information, which may bring greater combinations that will record an above- rewards in the long term. Dr. Ryzhov notes, average reduction in energy costs and therefore “The real-time information is especially useful complement each other particularly well. Firms in volatile markets, where each decision carries that want to hedge against high electricity costs greater risk and uncertainty. This new technique can buy forward contracts for today’s prices is important because companies can use it to and online learning can help them determine assign economic value to that information and how many they should buy. In all these cases, thus compare it to the opportunity costs of the decisions’ results provide valuable online making a short-term loss.” RESEARCH FOCUS: Online Information Ilya Ryzhov hour, setting a price too has immediate economic information in addition to their economic impact. Online learning requires experimentation, like Related information Ilya Ryzhov, Warren Powell and Peter Frazier, (2012) “The Knowledge Gradient Algorithm for a General Class of Online Learning Problems,” Operations Assistant Professor Ilya Ryzhov, together with setting the features in a service and phasing them Princeton Professor Warren Powell and Cornell in and out. This experimentation affects revenue, Assistant Professor Peter Frazier, has developed especially when it involves lowering prices, but a new way to assign economic value to online the collected information calibrates choices information. Not to be confused with information that will improve results in the longer term. Dr. available on the Internet, it is“online” because Ryzhov’s approach measures to see whether the the decision-maker observes the information as value of the new information from the higher he goes, in addition to the immediate economic price is enough to compensate for the revenue benefit (or loss) that occurs as a result of each penalty. A new weapon in the battle between far decision. Compare this to the “offline” learning and near term gains. Research, 60 (1), 180-195. that occurs when a product is tested against Ilya Ryzhov and Warren Powell, brought to market. historical data or in the lab setting before being (2011) “Information Collection on a Graph," Operations Research, “Our method mathematically represents how 59 (1), 188-201. a decision-maker could use online information, 6 Robert H. Smith School of Business C RESEARCH FOCUS: Innovative Innovation Yi Xu ompanies that have a problem without a problem is highly complex and a lot of an obvious solution often turn to their expertise is needed, contest coordinating internal research and development (R&D) costs may be prohibitive. Contest organizers department, a classic producer of new ideas. might need to develop a pool of qualified R&D departments differ from other parts solvers, for example through advertising or of a company (e.g., marketing) in that the sending invitations. In the case of a highly task of finding one outstanding idea implies complex problem, it may be cost-effective many costly failures. A process that has to hire an intermediary such as Innocentive. been lowering the cost of poor results is the com,which advertises the problem to its stable innovation contest,a form of crowd-sourcing. of experts. Those who are available to work In 2010, Google announced the Google Lunar on the problem submit their solutions to the X Prize with $30 million in contest prizes to intermediary and it passes the solutions on to the first privately funded team to send a robot the seeking company. Hiring an intermediary to the moon. In 2006, Netflix launched the can thus allow the seeker’s identity to remain Netflix Prize, an open contest with $1 million private, which can be beneficial in are as like prizes for the best collaborative filtering the pharmaceutical industry, where companies algorithm to predict user ratings for films. may not want outsiders to know what drugs Innovative in itself, the innovation contest they are working on. Limiting the number of transfers the cost of failure on unsuccessful solvers in this way also serves to mitigate the entrants since members of the public submit under investment of effort problem. solutions to a posted problem in the hope of winning a prize. It has been long thought that the problem of participants’ under-effort in a large contest Related information Christian Terwiesch and Yi Xu, (2008) “Innovation Contests, Open Innovation, and Multi-agent Problem Solving” Management Science, 54 (9), 1529–1543. Curtis. R. Taylor, (1995) "Digging for Golden Carrots: An Analysis of Research Tournaments" America Economic Review, 85 (4), 872–890. But the biggest benefit of a competitive would mean that running an innovation innovation contest is not the lowered cost. contest openly, for example as through a social Using a model based on extreme-value network,cannot be a successful R&D strategy. distribution, Assistant Professor Yi Xu and his But this research shows that the potential to coauthor Christian Terwiesch, Andrew M. obtain revolutionary ideas can easily outweigh Heller Professor at the Wharton School,have the under investment of time issue. “When shown that the wide variety of proposed we began our research back in 2005,” notes solutions from outside participants can be Professor Xu,“Crowd-sourcing and social predicted to actually produce more diverse networking were still in their infancy. Our and creative ideas than an internal R&D model was able to predict the power of department. Their work characterizes this harvesting ideas from an open social network.” benefit of innovation contest for three types of innovation. Holding an innovation contest could actually be more costly than maintaining a department, both in terms of coordination costs and also the lowered effort of participants who think they are unlikely to win. Yet Xu and Terwiesch find that the benefit Henry W. Chesbrough, (2003) "Open Innovation, The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology" Harvard Business School Press, Cambridge, MA. of obtaining more diverse and creative ideas can easily outweigh these issues. Carefully designing and managing contests can further mitigate these issues. Yet when 7 Fall 2012 Operations Management News 4306 Van Munching Hall University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742 FA L L 2 0 1 2 Operations Management News Recent Honors & Awards Bruce Golden (continued from p.4) • Harvey J. Greenberg Award for lifetime contributions to the INFORMS Computing Society (2011) • Finalist for the Pierskalla Award for the best paper in Healthcare Management Science (2010) • Invited to be a Plenary Speaker at the Annual Meeting of the Italian Association of Operations Research (2012) • Finalist for the Best Published Paper in the last three years in M&SOM (2012) • Editor in Chief, Networks • INFORMS Computing Society Prize for a paper on the use of optimization techniques to calculate fair payments in public sector combinatorial auctions. (2008) • Winner, Management Science Strategic Innovation Prize. (2010) • Area Editor, Informs Journal of Computing • Doctoral dissertation adviser for the winner of INFORMS Section on Location Analysis Biennial Dissertation Award, and the finalist for INFORMS Telecomnunications Section Dissertation Prize (2012). • Senior Editor, POM Raghu Raghavan • INFORMS Telecommunications Section Outstanding Service Award (2008) 8 Robert H. Smith School of Business • Doctoral dissertation advisor to the finalist for George B. Dantzig Dissertation Prize for the best dissertation in operations research and management science (2007) • Glover-Klingman Prize for the best paper of the year published in Networks. (2006) Ilya Ryzhov • Best Paper, IEEE Symposium on Adaptive Dynamic Programming and Reinforcement Learning (2011) Tunay Tunca • Coauthor for M&SOM Best Student Paper Finalist Paper (2007) • Finalist for the Best Published Paper in the last three years in M&SOM (2009) Yi Xu • Management Science Meritorious Service Award (2010) • Senior Editor, POM