2013
Crop Ins. Industry Convention
Resource Issues: Feeding 9 Billion
People by 2050
Mechel S. Paggi
Director
February 13, 2013
Indian Wells, CA
Conclusion: Technology Will Be The Most Important
Factor in Meeting Future Needs
Food Economics and Consumer Choice, Jeff Simmons, Elanco Animal Heath
Resource Issues
Feeding 9 Billion People by 2050
• Land – Global Land Available for
Agricultural Production
Capital – Technology & Need for Increased
Productivity
• Water – Limiting Resource with Current
Technology
• Labor – Immigration and the Food Supply
Feeding 9 Billion People by 2050
Land & Productivity
Changes in Land Use
Eroding Available Land Base
Projected Land Use Trend
Emphasizes Need for Technology
Based on U.N. FAO projections, 13 % more land in developing countries will be
converted to agricultural use over the next 30 years.
On a global basis, this represents a net increase in available cropland of only 1%
Global Land use for agriculture in 2008 39% the additional 1% pushes it to 40%
This land expansion will is expected to account for only 20% of future increases in
food production.
About 10 percent will come from increased cropping intensity (harvesting
more crops per year from every acre).
According to the U.N., 70 % of the rest must come from increased use of new and
current yield-enhancing technologies.
Increasing Productivity
Room For Increasing Productivity
Technology Advancement Key Globally
(TFP) can be taken as a measure of long-term technological change or technological dynamism not caused by other factors
Room For Increasing Productivity
Room For Increasing Productivity
Room For Increasing Productivity
Need for Continued Investment
To Continue Gains
But The Future is Uncertain
But The Future is Uncertain
Feeding 9 Billion People by 2050
Water
“Whiskey is for Drinking
Water is for Fighting Over”
Author Unknown
Agriculture is a Water Intensive Industry
1,832 Gals
1 lb. Beef
416 Gals
1 kg
177 Gals
1 lb.
36 Gals
1 Cup
78 Gals
Litre
www.waterfootprint.org
(Frozen Technology Assumption)
Ogallala
One of the Largest
Aquifers in the World
About 30% of water used for
farmland irrigation in the
United States comes from the
Ogallala Aquifer. Unfortunately,
the aquifer recharges at a very
slow rate compared to the rate
of water extraction. Water
levels in the Ogallala have
dropped by an estimated
more than 100 feet in many
places since water extraction
began through 2005 (see
map).Some estimates say
the aquifer could dry up in
as few as 25 years.
LABOR
Labor Issues
Despite ever-increasing levels of mechanization,
farming is dependent on hired farm labor, of which
as much as 53 percent may be undocumented.
There are many jobs associated with agricultural
production and processing that domestic labor
demonstrably prefers not to perform.
Knutson and Fisher, Senate Testimony, July 2011
Labor Issue Solutions
Political : Compromise Immigration Bill vs. Technology
Apple Picker
Grape Pruning
Berries
Orange Harvesting
Summary
The challenge facing agriculture in the future is
clear: how do we feed 9 billion people by 2050; it
will require additional resources and continuing
advancement in technology to meet that
challenge.
Crop Insurance, both domestically and
internationally will play an important roll in
helping the farmers of today and tomorrow
manage the risk associated with being the
lynchpin in a comprehensive solution to that
challenge