PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ETECTING GLOBAL TREATMENT EFFECTS ACROSS ROI ♦ George Minas♣ , Fabio Rigat , Tom Nichols♥ , John Aston♠ , Nigel Stallardz ♣ ♥ Dept of Statistics & WCAS, University of Warwick ♦ Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics Neuroimaging Statistics, Dept of Statistics & WMG, University of Warwick ♠ Dept of Statistics, University of Warwick z Health Sciences Research Institute, WMS, University of Warwick FP7 Neurophysics Workshop: Pharmacological fMRI University of Warwick, 23-24 Jan 2012 D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL O UTLINE 1 Introduction 1 2 3 2 Proposal: Optimal LC tests 1 2 3 Problem set-up Optimal solution Proposal Assessment 1 2 4 pharmacological MRI ROI analysis Detecting Global Treatment Effects Simulations Real data example Discussion P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION PHARMACOLOGICAL F MRI BOLD F MRI The imaging contrast arising as a consequence of the local changes in blood oxygenation accompanying neuronal activation C LINICAL T RIAL A controlled experiment to compare the effects of different medical interventions on human subjects PHARMACOLOGICAL F MRI The use of fMRI in clinical trials A PPLICATIONS Schizophrenia, Depression, Drug addiction, Dementia, Parkinson’s, Pain, Epilepsy, Stroke, ... PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE PH P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION MRI: P RESENT AND P ROMISE Honey and Bullmore (2004), JMRI SI: Clinical Potential of Brain Mapping Using MRI (2006), Wong et al. (2009), Schwartz et al. (2011) new technique, principally used in licensed compounds, Wise and Tracey (2006) but, major pharma corps “are embracing this technology via academic collaborations or by establishing it in-house”, Wise and Tracey (2006) Targets (among many): Use in early proof-of-concept studies for novel therapies PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION M ASS - UNIVARIATE AND ROI ANALYSIS Wise and Tracey (2006): To answer a question such as, “Where in the brain does my drug change stimulus-related activity” Hence, mass-univariate analysis at voxel-by-voxel resolution. Wise and Tracey (2006): To test a mechanism-based hypothesis, or one in which a specific drug target is postulated, it is preferable to answer a more focused question concerning the drug effect, for example, “Considering three brain areas A, B, and C, in which of these does my drug reduce stimulus-related activity?” Or, “Does my drug reduce stimulus-related activity across these regions” Hence, ROI analysis. PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS ROI ANALYSIS : POTENTIAL ADVANTAGES Easier to explore the data → allowance for making specific mechanistic or spatial hypotheses Suitable for testing regional hypotheses → more strict hypotheses → (usually) more suitable for CT’s Drastic reduction of multiple comparisons → statistical power increased but strong spatial prior hypotheses are required D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS H OW TO DO ROI ANALYSIS : I N ONE SLIDE 1 Define anatomical or functional ROI 2 Perform voxel-by-voxel mass-univariate analysis 3 Extract estimates βb of the treatment effect in each voxel 4 b across ROI Average β’s I A measure of brain response per ROI/subject Here, we use ROI data to see whether there is a significant Global Treatment Effect (GTE) across ROI. D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION T ESTING FOR GLOBAL TREATMENT EFFECTS ( GTE ) We have the response measure Y = (Y1 , Y2 , ..., YK ) with E(Y) = µ and we are willing to test the null hypothesis H0 : µ = (µ1 , ..., µK )0 = (0, 0, ..., 0)0 I Detection of GTE ≡ Rejection of H0 Targets: I control false positive rate: P( reject H0 | H0 true ) = α I maximise power function P( reject H0 | H0 false ) PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS B ONFERRONI - TYPE METHODS D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS B ONFERRONI - TYPE METHODS Test the local null hypotheses H0k : µk = 0, k = 1, ..., K(e.g. ROI) while Pr (at least one false positive) ≤ α. Test: reject H0k ⇔ pk ≤ αk (pk : local p-value) D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS B ONFERRONI - TYPE METHODS Test the local null hypotheses H0k : µk = 0, k = 1, ..., K(e.g. ROI) while Pr (at least one false positive) ≤ α. Test: I reject H0k ⇔ pk ≤ αk (pk : local p-value) Rejection of a local H0k ⇒ Rejection of global H0 D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS B ONFERRONI - TYPE METHODS Test the local null hypotheses H0k : µk = 0, k = 1, ..., K(e.g. ROI) while Pr (at least one false positive) ≤ α. Test: I reject H0k ⇔ pk ≤ αk (pk : local p-value) Rejection of a local H0k ⇒ Rejection of global H0 C LASSICAL B ONFERRONI αk = α/K D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS B ONFERRONI - TYPE METHODS Test the local null hypotheses H0k : µk = 0, k = 1, ..., K(e.g. ROI) while Pr (at least one false positive) ≤ α. Test: I reject H0k ⇔ pk ≤ αk (pk : local p-value) Rejection of a local H0k ⇒ Rejection of global H0 C LASSICAL B ONFERRONI αk = α/K W ESTFALL ET AL . (2007) Compute αk > 0: K P αk = α and k=1 arg max E(# rejections | D), D: prior information D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS B ONFERRONI - TYPE METHODS Test the local null hypotheses H0k : µk = 0, k = 1, ..., K(e.g. ROI) while Pr (at least one false positive) ≤ α. Test: I reject H0k ⇔ pk ≤ αk (pk : local p-value) Rejection of a local H0k ⇒ Rejection of global H0 C LASSICAL B ONFERRONI αk = α/K W ESTFALL ET AL . (2007) Compute αk > 0: K P αk = α and k=1 arg max E(# rejections | D), D: prior information +: Simple −: Overconservative for high correlations, big K D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION M ULTIVARIATE TESTING PROCEDURES (MTP) PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION M ULTIVARIATE TESTING PROCEDURES (MTP) Combine the evidence for treatment effects arising from the local outcomes Provide a single global statement for the global treatment effect Assumption: iid Yi ∼ NK (µ, Σ) , i = 1, ..., N Global null hypothesis H0 : µ = 0 PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION M ULTIVARIATE TESTING PROCEDURES (MTP) Combine the evidence for treatment effects arising from the local outcomes Provide a single global statement for the global treatment effect Assumption: iid Yi ∼ NK (µ, Σ) , i = 1, ..., N Global null hypothesis H0 : µ = 0 +: Incorporate correlations −: Less simple than classical Bonferroni PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS MTP: H OTELLING ’ S T2 TEST Classical multivariate testing procedure D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS MTP: H OTELLING ’ S T2 TEST Classical multivariate testing procedure Test statistic: T2 = Ny0 S−1 y y y, Sy : sample mean, var-covar matrix of Y Test: reject H0 ⇔ T2 N − K > F(K,N−K),α N−1 K D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS MTP: H OTELLING ’ S T2 TEST Classical multivariate testing procedure Test statistic: T2 = Ny0 S−1 y y y, Sy : sample mean, var-covar matrix of Y Test: reject H0 ⇔ T2 N − K > F(K,N−K),α N−1 K +: Scale invariant, uniformly most powerful −: Requires N > K, lacks power if N ' K ⇒ inappropriate for trials where K: moderate or large and N: small or moderate (e.g. typical fMRI studies) D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS MTP: L INEAR C OMBINATION T ESTS D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS MTP: L INEAR C OMBINATION T ESTS Define the linear combination 0 Lw = w Y = K X k=1 wk Yk (w 6= 0) D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION MTP: L INEAR C OMBINATION T ESTS Define the linear combination 0 Lw = w Y = K X wk Yk (w 6= 0) k=1 Test statistic: Lw Lw √ , √ Σ unknown : σLw / N sLw / N : sample mean, variance and sample variance of Lw Σ known : Lw , σL2w , s2Lw PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION MTP: L INEAR C OMBINATION T ESTS Define the linear combination 0 Lw = w Y = K X wk Yk (w 6= 0) k=1 Test statistic: Lw Lw √ , √ Σ unknown : σLw / N sLw / N : sample mean, variance and sample variance of Lw Σ known : Lw , σL2w , s2Lw Critical issue: The selection of the weighting vector w. It affects: I the false positive rate I the power of the test PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION MTP: T ESTS BASED ON LINEAR COMBINATIONS 2 Some solutions: O’Brien (1984): wOLS = 1K , wGLS = Σ−1 1K , 1K = (1, 1, ..., 1)0 Powerful if the effect has same size and sign across outcomes PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION MTP: T ESTS BASED ON LINEAR COMBINATIONS 2 Some solutions: O’Brien (1984): wOLS = 1K , wGLS = Σ−1 1K , 1K = (1, 1, ..., 1)0 Powerful if the effect has same size and sign across outcomes Lauter et al. (1996): w uniquely determined by Y0 Y, Y = (Yi )Ni=1 Powerful if the effect has certain factorial structures PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION MTP: T ESTS BASED ON LINEAR COMBINATIONS 2 Some solutions: O’Brien (1984): wOLS = 1K , wGLS = Σ−1 1K , 1K = (1, 1, ..., 1)0 Powerful if the effect has same size and sign across outcomes Lauter et al. (1996): w uniquely determined by Y0 Y, Y = (Yi )Ni=1 Powerful if the effect has certain factorial structures +: Scale invariant, not constrained to have K < N −: Require specific structures of E(Y) and/or Var(Y) to be powerful. I Proposal (coming next): Attempts to tackle the last problem by using pilot data and prior information to select w optimally PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS F ORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION F ORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM Response: iid Yi ∼ NK (µ, Σ) , i = 1, 2, ..., ny (1) Hypotheses: H0 : µ = 0 (no effect) versus H1 : µ 6= 0 (2) Global Measure: the linear combination Lw,i = w0 Yi , i = 1, 2, ..., ny (w 6= 0) (3) Test statistic: Σ known : Zw = Lw Lw √ , Σ unknown : Tw = √ (4) σLw / N sLw / N PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS F ORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM 2 D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION F ORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM 2 Hypothesis Test: Σ known : reject H0 ⇔ |Zw | > zα/2 Σ unknown : reject H0 ⇔ |Tw | > tny −1,α/2 (5) (6) Power: Σ known : βz = P |Zw | > zα/2 (7) (8) Σ unknown : βt = P |Tw | > tny −1,α/2 PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION O PTIMAL WEIGHTING VECTOR Target: Select w so that the power for any µ 6= 0 is maximised T HEOREM 1 Under (1) and when µ 6= 0, the weighting vector maximising the power functions β (w, µ, ny ) and βt (w, µ, Σ, ny ) is ω + = Σ−1 µ. I ω + optimal with respect to power. But,... I The weighting vector ω + depends on µ (which is unknown!) I We wish to collect information for µ (and Σ) to select w (9) PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION R ESULTS OF T HEOREM 1 C OROLLARY 1 Under (1), βt+ = βt (ω + , µ, Σ, ny ) is larger or equal than the power of the Hotelling’s T 2 test βT 2 (µ, Σ, ny ), for any value of µ, Σ (ny > K). In fact, βT 2 (µ, Σ, ny ) βt (ω + , µ, Σ, ny ) especially for ny ' K 1 2 3 4 µ (0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 0) (0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5) ny 8 10 17 20 βt+ (ny ) 0.99 0.99 0.72 0.79 βT 2 (ny ) 0.11 0.61 0.30 0.38 PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS LC t TESTS VS H OTELLING ’ S T 2 TEST F IGURE : βt? and βT 2 vs sample size n, K = 15. For n < 30, βt dominates βT 2 I There is scope for developing linear combination tests. D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION P RIOR INFORMATION - P ILOT DATA Prior for µ: (µ|Σ, D0 ) ∼ NK (m0 , Σ/n0 ) , m0 : prior estimate for µ Prior for Σ: n0 : # of prior observations (Σ|D0 ) ∼ IW K×K ν0 , S0−1 iid Xi ∼ NK (µ, Σ) , i = 1, 2, ..., nx I (11) ν0 : degrees of freedom S0 : scale matrix Pilot data: (10) (12) We use the information set D1 = {x, D0 } to select optimally w Optimality? Max predictive power given D1 PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION S ELECTING THE WEIGHTING VECTOR I Predictive power: P(reject H0 | available information) Σ known : Bz = P |Zw | > zα/2 | D1 Σ unknown : Bt = P |Tw | > tny −1,α/2 | D1 (13) (14) T HEOREM 2 Under (1), (10), (11) and (12) the weighting vector maximising Bz is w?z = Σ−1 m1 . (15) For large ν1 = ν0 + nx , Bt (w, D1 ) is maximised by w?t = S1−1 m1 . m1 = n0 m0 + nx x n0 nx , S1 = S0 + (nx − 1)Sx + (x − m0 )(x − m0 )0 n0 + nx n0 + nx PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS z? AND t? TESTING PROCEDURES D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS z? AND t? TESTING PROCEDURES 0. P LANNING STAGE Elicit priors for µ and Σ (if unknown) D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS z? AND t? TESTING PROCEDURES 0. P LANNING STAGE Elicit priors for µ and Σ (if unknown) x 1. P ILOT STUDY Collect pilot data x = (xi )ni=1 D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS z? AND t? TESTING PROCEDURES 0. P LANNING STAGE Elicit priors for µ and Σ (if unknown) x 1. P ILOT STUDY Collect pilot data x = (xi )ni=1 2. I NTERIM ANALYSIS Using Theorem 2, compute the optimal weighting vector w?z or w?t (if Σ unknown) D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS z? AND t? TESTING PROCEDURES 0. P LANNING STAGE Elicit priors for µ and Σ (if unknown) x 1. P ILOT STUDY Collect pilot data x = (xi )ni=1 2. I NTERIM ANALYSIS Using Theorem 2, compute the optimal weighting vector w?z or w?t (if Σ unknown) 3. M AIN STUDY Collect responses Yj , for j = 1, ..., ny D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS z? AND t? TESTING PROCEDURES 0. P LANNING STAGE Elicit priors for µ and Σ (if unknown) x 1. P ILOT STUDY Collect pilot data x = (xi )ni=1 2. I NTERIM ANALYSIS Using Theorem 2, compute the optimal weighting vector w?z or w?t (if Σ unknown) 3. M AIN STUDY Collect responses Yj , for j = 1, ..., ny 4. F INAL ANALYSIS Perform the z? - or t? -test (if Σ unknown) using Zw? or Tw?t , respectively D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS P ROPERTIES OF z? - AND t? - TESTS control false positive rate D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS P ROPERTIES OF z? - AND t? - TESTS control false positive rate the distribution of Zw? , Tw? I do not depend on K (unlike Hotelling’s T2 ) I invariant to scale transformations Y → cY D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS P ROPERTIES OF z? - AND t? - TESTS control false positive rate the distribution of Zw? , Tw? I do not depend on K (unlike Hotelling’s T2 ) I invariant to scale transformations Y → cY the weighting vectors w?z and w?t I optimal given the available information at interim I invariant to scale transformation Y → cY I components with strong effects receive larger weights I intuitive relation to the expected treatment effect D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS S IMULATIONS ALGORITHM D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS S IMULATIONS ALGORITHM Set the inputs: I Sample sizes: nx , ny and the FPR: α I Prior hyperparameters: m0 , n0 , S0 , ν0 I Parameters: µ, Σ For r = 1, ..., R(= 15000): D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS S IMULATIONS ALGORITHM Set the inputs: I Sample sizes: nx , ny and the FPR: α I Prior hyperparameters: m0 , n0 , S0 , ν0 I Parameters: µ, Σ For r = 1, ..., R(= 15000): 1 x Generate pilot data xr = (xri )ni=1 from N(µ, Σ) D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS S IMULATIONS ALGORITHM Set the inputs: I Sample sizes: nx , ny and the FPR: α I Prior hyperparameters: m0 , n0 , S0 , ν0 I Parameters: µ, Σ For r = 1, ..., R(= 15000): 1 x Generate pilot data xr = (xri )ni=1 from N(µ, Σ) 2 Compute w?z (xr ) (or w?t (xr )) D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS S IMULATIONS ALGORITHM Set the inputs: I Sample sizes: nx , ny and the FPR: α I Prior hyperparameters: m0 , n0 , S0 , ν0 I Parameters: µ, Σ For r = 1, ..., R(= 15000): 1 x Generate pilot data xr = (xri )ni=1 from N(µ, Σ) 2 Compute w?z (xr ) (or w?t (xr )) 3 Compute βz? (w?z (xr ))(or βt? (w?t (xr ))) D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS S IMULATIONS ALGORITHM Set the inputs: I Sample sizes: nx , ny and the FPR: α I Prior hyperparameters: m0 , n0 , S0 , ν0 I Parameters: µ, Σ For r = 1, ..., R(= 15000): 1 x Generate pilot data xr = (xri )ni=1 from N(µ, Σ) 2 Compute w?z (xr ) (or w?t (xr )) 3 Compute βz? (w?z (xr ))(or βt? (w?t (xr ))) We examine the produced distributions of βz? (X) (or βt? (X)) D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS T OTAL SAMPLE SIZE F IGURE : Simulated percentiles of βt? (X) vs nt . nT % ⇒ βz? (X), βt? (X)% D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS S AMPLE ALLOCATION F IGURE : Simulated percentiles of βt? (X) versus f = nx /nT , nT = 14. Higher βz? (X), βt? (X) for balanced allocations (f ∈ (0.3, 0.5)) D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION P OWER COMPARISONS Power of OLS, SS, PC and t? -test (median) for nx = 5, ny = 15, e’s, βT 2 (nT ) = 0.38. various m0 , n0 and µ = 0.90 × √ 0µe −1 . For all µ µ eΣ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 µ e µ e, K = 11 (1, ..., 1)0 βtOLS (nT ) βtSS (nT ) βtPC (nT ) 0.97 0.96 0.96 (5, 1, ..., 1)0 0.16 0.14 0.14 (1/4, ..., 1/4)0 (1/4, 0, ..., 0)0 (6, 6, 4, 4, 2, 2, 1, ..., 1)0 0.28 0.26 0.27 (−6, 6, 4, 4, 2, 2, 1, ..., 1)0 0.07 0.07 0.07 (1/4, ..., 1/4)0 (0.1, 0.1, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0, ..., 0)0 (1/4, ..., 1/4)0 (−0.1, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0, ..., 0)0 m0 (1/4, ..., 1/4)0 I For small nT , the prior estimates of the treatment effect are highly influential on βt? I For relatively precise prior estimates, βt? (ny ) is substantially greater than βtOLS (nT ), βtSS (nT ), βtPC (nT ) n0 1 5 0 1 1 5 1 1 1 1 ? βt,0.50 (ny ) 0.60 0.74 0.33 0.37 0.58 0.68 0.42 0.58 0.33 0.59 PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION R EAL E XAMPLE - MRI STUDY: DATA 11 subjects participated in a GSK study informing drug development using fMRI recordings 11 ROI were defined We suppose that nx = 3, ny = 8 TABLE : Sample means (1,2), variances (3,4) and correlations (5-15) of x and y 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ROI xk yk sx,k sy,k AC A C DLPFC GP I OFC P SA T VS AC 0.21 -0.14 0.54 0.22 1.00 0.40 0.78 0.78 0.73 0.85 0.48 0.71 0.32 0.86 0.63 A 0.23 -0.05 0.36 0.32 0.97 1.00 0.20 0.34 0.75 0.64 0.56 0.57 0.79 0.33 0.63 C 0.05 -0.15 0.18 0.15 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.96 0.66 0.71 0.37 0.72 0.19 0.81 0.62 DLPFC -0.04 -0.13 0.36 0.19 0.99 0.95 0.98 1.00 0.68 0.71 0.52 0.73 0.36 0.84 0.69 GP -0.02 -0.18 0.49 0.32 0.90 0.96 0.93 0.85 1.00 0.93 0.32 0.94 0.60 0.70 0.91 I 0.22 -0.13 0.30 0.24 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.94 0.97 1.00 0.30 0.82 0.49 0.70 0.78 OFC -0.19 -0.12 0.62 0.27 0.94 0.99 0.96 0.89 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.24 0.32 0.58 0.30 P 0.20 -0.15 0.59 0.35 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.90 0.98 0.94 1.00 0.51 0.77 0.94 SA 0.06 -0.12 0.09 0.39 0.70 0.54 0.63 0.77 0.32 0.53 0.41 0.68 1.00 0.19 0.62 T 0.15 -0.25 0.47 0.23 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.91 0.98 0.95 0.99 0.67 1.00 0.73 VS 0.16 -0.22 0.44 0.26 0.79 0.90 0.84 0.73 0.98 0.90 0.95 0.81 0.13 0.81 1.00 PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS R EAL E XAMPLE - F MRI STUDY: RESULTS TABLE : P-values of t? -test for various hyperparameters and nx = 3, ny = 8 compared with the p-values of T 2 , OLS, SS and PC tests. 1 2 3 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 I I pOLS 0.33 pSS 0.31 pPC 0.34 S0 CS:s20 = 0.05, r0 = 0.6 m0 0.1 × 1K (0.1, ..., 0.1, 0.2, 0.2) 0 = 0.9 same but r3,4 0.1 × 1K (0.1, ..., 0.1, 0.2, 0.2) 0 = 0.2 same but r3,4 0.1 × 1K (0.1, ..., 0.1, 0.2, 0.2) n0 0 1 3 1 3 0 1 3 1 3 0 1 3 1 3 pt? 0.70 0.29 0.22 0.02* 0.01* 0.53 0.20 0.17 0.02* 0.01* 0.97 0.32 0.14 0.03* 0.01* The prior estimates are highly influential to the p-values Even for fairly poor prior estimates, t? succeeds substantially lower p-values than the other tests. D ISCUSSION PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION S UMMARY ROI analysis is useful for pharmacological fMRI Available testing procedures often not suitable for detecting global treatment effects across ROI in pH MRI We proposed a novel optimal procedure based on multivariate assumptions The proposed test statistic is based on linear combinations of the response. PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION S UMMARY The weighting vector of the linear combination is a key element of the test. The procedure is split into two stages. First-stage: collect information to select the weighting vector. Second stage: collect observations and do the test. The proposed testing procedures: I I I I I scale invariant test statistics control the false positive rate well behaved power function exploit all sources of available information efficient if the collected information is not misleading Development to adaptive design and analysis PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION R EFERENCES T. W. Anderson. An introduction to multivariate statistical analysis, 2nd edition. John Wiley and Sons, 2003 G. Honey, E. Bullmore, Human pharmacological MRI, Trends. Pharmacol. Sci., 2004, 25, 366 - 374 J. Lauter, E. Glimm, and S. Kroph. New multivariate tests for data with an inherent structure. Biom. Journal, 38:1-23, 1996 R. A. Poldrack, Region of interest analysis for fMRI, SCAN, 2007, 2, 67-70 G. Minas, F. Rigat, T.E. Nichols, J.A.D. Aston. A hybrid procedure for detecting Global Treatment Effects in Multivariate Clinical Trials, Stat. Med., 2012, 31, 253-268 PH MRI - ROI ANALYSIS T ESTING FOR GTE P ROPOSAL P OWER A NALYSIS D ISCUSSION R EFERENCES G. D. Mitsis, G. D. Iannetti, T. S. Smart, I. Tracey, and R. G. Wise. Regions of interest analysis in pharmacological fMRI: How do the definition criteria influence the inferred result? Neuroimage, 40:121-132, 2007 P. C. O’Brien. Procedures for comparing samples with multiple endpoints. Biometrics, 40:1079-1087,1984 D. J. Spiegelhalter, K. R. Abrams, and J. P. Myles. Bayesian approaches to clinical trials and health-care evaluation. John Wiley and Sons, 2004 P. Westfall, A. Krishen, and S. Young. Using prior information to allocate significance levels for multiple endpoints. Biom. Journal, 17:2025-2156, 1998 R. G. Wise, I. Tracey, The role of fMRI in drug discovery, JMRI, 2006, 23, 862-876