March San Joaquin Business Conditions Index
For More Information Contact:
Ernie Goss Ph.D., 559-278-2352
University Business Center
Craig School of Business
California State University, Fresno
Goss video summary at: http://youtu.be/dgvgoQjo1KE
San Joaquin Valley Economic Indicator in Solid Growth Range:
Eighty Percent Raise Drought Concerns
March survey results at a glance:
 Leading economic indicator jumps higher for the month.
 End of West Coast dock dispute had a very positive impact on the regional economy.
 Wholesale inflationary pressures decline again.
 Almost 80 percent expect negative 2015 economic impacts for their firms if drought continues.
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PMI for U.S. and San Joaquin, Oct. 2013 – March 2015
San Joaquin Business Conditions Index – p. 2 of 3
For Immediate Release: April 1, 2015
FRESNO, CA-For the sixteenth consecutive month, the San Joaquin Valley Business
Conditions Index rose above the 50.0 growth neutral threshold. The index, a leading economic
indicator from a survey of individuals making company purchasing decisions for firms in the counties of
Fresno, Kings, Madera, and Tulare, rose for the first time since November and continues to point to
positive growth for the next 3 to 6 months. The index is produced using the same methodology as that
of the national Institute for Supply Management (www.ism.ws).
Overall Index: After declining for three consecutive months, the overall index bounced higher.
The March index jumped to a healthy 57.2 from February’s 52.9. March’s reading is in a range
indicating positive growth in the months ahead. An index greater than 50.0 indicates an expansionary
economy over the course of the next three to six months. Survey results for the last two months and
one year ago are listed in the accompanying table.
“Much like the national economy, the San Joaquin Valley economy is expanding at a solid pace.
Based on our surveys over the past several months, that growth should remain positive for the next 3 to
6 months. It appears that the end of the West Coast dock dispute had a very positive impact on the
regional economy,” said Ernie Goss, Ph.D., research faculty with the Craig School of Business at
California State University, Fresno.
Employment: After slumping below growth neutral in October of 2013, the regional hiring
gauge has moved above the 50.0 threshold each month since. The employment index soared to 63.0
from 51.1 in February.
“Hiring was healthy across a broad range of industries in the area - from construction to
wholesale trade. Almost 80 percent of businesses expect negative impacts on their 2015 operations if
drought conditions continue,” reported Goss.
Wholesale Prices: The prices-paid index, which tracks the cost of purchased raw materials
and supplies, slumped to 47.0 from 47.9 in February. “Just as in other regional surveys and the
national survey, the San Joaquin Valley inflationary gauge signals declining inflationary pressures at
the wholesale level. A stronger U.S. dollar has underpinned the inflation gauge but at a level indicating
weak pricing power,” said Goss.
Business Confidence: Looking ahead six months, economic optimism, captured by the
business confidence index, advanced to 63.1 from February’s 54.8. “Lower fuel prices and the ending
of the West Coast dock dispute pushed business confidence higher for the month,” said Goss.
San Joaquin Business Conditions Index – p. 3 of 3
Inventories: Businesses increased inventories of raw materials and supplies for the month and
at a faster pace. The March inventory reading increased to 59.3 from last month’s 56.0.
Trade: The new export order index fell to a still strong 58.4 from 66.8 in February, and the
import index expanded to a still weak 48.6 from 40.9 in February. .
Other components: Other components of the March Business Conditions Index were: new
orders at 49.8, down from 45.6 in February; production or sales at 52.7, up from February’s 51.5; and
delivery lead time at 61.4, up from 60.4 in February.
Table 1 details survey results for March 2014, last month and March 2015. April survey results
will be released on the first business day of next month, May 1.
Table 1: Overall and component indices for last 2 months and one year ago (above 50.0
indicates expansion)
San Joaquin Valley
March 2014
February 2015
March 2015
52.9
57.2
Leading economic indicator
52.0
45.6
49.8
New orders
51.4
51.5
52.7
Production or sales
49.3
51.1
63.0
Employment
53.3
56.0
59.3
Inventories
52.5
60.4
61.4
Delivery lead time
53.6
47.9
47.0
Wholesale prices
72.1
40.9
48.6
Imports
56.3
66.8
58.4
Export orders
67.0
54.8
63.1
Business confidence
52.8
Craig School of Business: http://www.fresnostate.edu/craig/ubc/sjvs.html
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Blog: http://economictrends.blogspot.com