April San Joaquin Business Conditions Index
For More Information Contact:
Ernie Goss Ph.D., 559-278-2352
University Business Center
Craig School of Business
California State University, Fresno
Goss video summary at: http://youtu.be/2Qhp9wiHxk8
San Joaquin Valley Economic Indicator in Solid Growth Range:
Eighty Percent Raise Drought Concerns
April survey results at a glance:
 Leading economic indicator jumps to record high.
 Wholesale inflationary pressures decline again.
 Construction activity continues to expand at solid pace.
 Wholesale trade experiences healthy growth.
.
PMIs for U.S. & San Joaquin Valley, Oct. 2013 – April 2015
61
U.S.
59
57
55
53
51
49
47
San Joaquin Valley
San Joaquin Business Conditions Index – p. 2 of 3
For Immediate Release: May 1, 2015
FRESNO, CA-For the seventeenth consecutive month, the San Joaquin Valley Business
Conditions Index rose above the 50.0 growth neutral threshold. The index, a leading economic
indicator from a survey of individuals making company purchasing decisions for firms in the counties of
Fresno, Kings, Madera, and Tulare, soared and continues to point to positive growth for the next 3 to 6
months. The index is produced using the same methodology as that of the national Institute for Supply
Management (www.ism.ws).
Overall Index: For a second straight month, the overall index bounced higher. The April index
jumped to a very healthy 59.9 from March’s 57.2. April’s reading is in a range indicating strong,
positive growth in the months ahead. April’s reading matches the record high reading recorded in
November 2014. An index greater than 50.0 indicates an expansionary economy over the course of
the next three to six months. Survey results for the last two months and one year ago are listed in the
accompanying table.
“According to our survey results over the last several months, economic growth will improve
over the next 3 to 6 months. The end of the West Coast dock dispute has had a very positive impact
on the regional economy, especially for wholesale trade firms,” said Ernie Goss, Ph.D., research faculty
with the Craig School of Business at California State University, Fresno.
Employment: After slumping below growth neutral in October of 2013, the regional hiring
gauge has moved above the 50.0 threshold each month since. The employment index climbed to 64.9
from 63.0 in March.
“Hiring was healthy across a broad range of industries in the area - from construction to
wholesale trade. Even though the region’s unemployment rate remains well above the state and
national jobless rates, non-farm employment has expanded by more than ten percent since the
beginning of the national recovery in 2009. These gains will continue for 2015,” reported Goss.
Wholesale Prices: The prices-paid index, which tracks the cost of purchased raw materials
and supplies, slumped to 46.4 from 47.0 in March. “Just as in other regional surveys and the national
survey, the San Joaquin Valley inflationary gauge signals declining inflationary pressures at the
wholesale level. The strong U.S. dollar has pushed the wholesale inflation gauge lower,” said Goss.
San Joaquin Business Conditions Index – p. 3 of 3
Business Confidence: Looking ahead six months, economic optimism, captured by the
business confidence index, fell to 58.7 from March’s 63.1. “Lower fuel prices and an expanding
regional economy continue to support business confidence,” said Goss.
Inventories: Businesses increased inventories of raw materials and supplies for the month but
at a slower pace. The April inventory reading declined to 56.9 from last month’s 59.3.
Trade: The new export order index fell to a weaker 50.6 from March’s 58.4, and the import
index slumped to 38.0 from 48.6 in March.
Other components: Other components of the April Business Conditions Index were: new
orders at 56.1, down from 49.8 in March; production or sales at 57.6, up from March’s 52.7; and
delivery lead time at 64.2, up from 61.4 in March.
Table 1 details survey results for April 2014, last month and April 2015. May survey results will
be released on the first business day of next month, June 1.
Table 1: Overall and component indices for last 2 months and one year ago (above 50.0
indicates expansion)
San Joaquin Valley
April 2014
March 2015
April 2015
Leading economic indicator
55.9
57.2
59.9
New orders
56.7
49.8
56.1
Production or sales
50.7
52.7
57.6
Employment
55.1
63.0
64.9
Inventories
60.0
59.3
56.9
Delivery lead time
57.1
61.4
64.2
Wholesale prices
75.3
47.0
46.4
Imports
57.3
48.6
38.0
Export orders
56.0
58.4
50.6
Business confidence
56.2
63.1
58.7
Craig School of Business: http://www.fresnostate.edu/craig/ubc/sjvs.html
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Blog: http://economictrends.blogspot.com