Research and Action Agenda for a National Broadband
Initiative - Technological Developments
16th April, 2010
New Delhi
Ajay Ranjan Mishra
Global Head Services Innovations & BD
Nokia Siemens Networks
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Our common vision: The world connected
in 2015
Universal access to information and communication
technologies boosts the economic and social
development of nations
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Universal access requires
consumer understanding
Affordability
Source: Marja-Liisa Viherä (adapted)
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Market maturity drives operator focus
Internet penetration 2008 (% of population)
100%
Differentiation
Pressure Index
Finland
80%
South Korea
USA
Japan
France
Australia
Size of Mobile
UK
Hong Kong
Broadband
Germany
Opportunity
60%
Poland
Qatar
40%
Czech Republic
Iran
Brazil
Russia
Peru Tunisia
Mexico Vietnam
Saudi Arabia
China
20%
Azerbaijan Philippines
Thailand
Egypt Morocco
Pakistan
Algeria
Sudan India
Indonesia
South Africa
Ghana
Nigeria
Kenya
0% Mozambique
Turkey
Urban India
Rural India
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Mobile penetration 2008 (% of population)
Today’s strongest opportunities for growth:
•Voice for rural population
•Mobile broadband for urban dwellers
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Italy
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160%
In India as well, Broadband uptake will be driven
by wireless
Broadband Market by Subscriptions In India
100
8%
3G (Mobile Broadband)
WiMax
6%
Fiber Optic (FTTx)
xDSL
60
5%
Broadband Penetration
4%
40
3%
2%
20
1%
0
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
3G/HSPA will drive broadband in India
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Broadband Penetration
Cable and Others
80
Subscriptions ('000)
7%
Access
CAGR
User data rate [Mbps]
1.000
Wireline
100
ADSL2plus
16-20 Mbps
10
ADSL
1-3 Mbps
GPON*
100 Mbps
VDSL2
25-50 Mbps
~ x2 per year
HSDPA*
3.6-7.2 Mbps
HSDPA*
1.8 Mbps
UMTS*
0,384 Mbps
0,1
Wireless
GPRS*
0,075 Mbps
2005
Year of user availability
100% (2x Moore’s Law)
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LTE*
WiMAX*
HSPA MIMO*
ADSL
6-8 Mbps
1
0,01
2000
NG-PON*
DSM L3
2010
Cell Range gets Shorter at Higher Frequency and
with TDD
•
•
WiMAX has shorter cell range due to TDD duplexing and higher frequency
Outdoor fixed antennas can be used to improve the link budget for fixed
wireless solution
Downlink: 1 Mbps
Uplink: 64 kbps
Suburban indoor
8 x more sites
required than
with HSPA2100
WiMAX 3400 TDD
WiMAX 2500 TDD
Uplink
Downlink
Assumptions:
• Suburban area
• 50 m BTS antenna
• 15 dB indoor loss
• 95% location probability
• Correction factor -5 dB
• 1.5 m terminal antenna height
HSPA/LTE2500
FDD
HSPA/LTE2100
HSPA/LTE900
0.00
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0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
km
2.50
3.00
3.50
Cost of Broadband deployment in India
• In latest BSNL tender, mobile 3G access network cost per
subscriber was depending on area from 110 USD to
120USD.
• Whereas, fixed line cost depends on area much more widely.
In dense urban area cost is low, but in suburban and rural
area cost will be very high.
• Low frequency gives wider reach in cell radius and lowers
initial investments for mobile broadband.
Government should auction 700Mhz band for rural broadband
• USO = Universal Service Obligation fee like x% of operator
revenue can be used for financing rural digital dividend area
network build out.
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Optical
CAGR
x2 in 5 years
~ 1.15 per year
Bandwidth Gbit/s
1000
SONET/SDH
40Gbps
100
10
Ethernet
40Gbps
SONET/SDH
10Gbps
SONET/SDH
2.5Gbps
Ethernet
1Gbps
1
Ethernet
10Gbps
Ethernet
100Mbps
0.1
0.01
1984
Ethernet
10Mbps
1988
1992
1996
< 2008 based on Source:A.RInck Analysis
2000
2004
2008
Availability Year
15% (1/4th Moore’s Law)
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Ethernet
100Gbps
Global Services SBD
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2012
Summary
Countries missing out on
opportunity to add
hundreds of billions to their
national revenues
Government should auction
700Mhz band for rural
broadband
Connectivity increasing but
utilisation not
Affordability is the key
factor - we need to work on
TCO
Key stakeholders need to come together to make this
happen.
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