How Would a New Maunder Minimum Affect the Climate?
Georg Feulner [feulner@pik-potsdam.de], Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
Germany
Although the current solar minimum appears to be finally coming to an end, its
exceptional length has led to suggestions that during the 21st century the Sun might enter a
new Grand Minimum similar to the 17th-century Maunder Minimum. This has been widely
discussed both by scientists and in the public, with many speculations about a new “Little Ice
Age” offsetting global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Here I
present results of simulations with a fully coupled climate model forced with solar irradiance
corresponding to past Grand Minima of solar activity and with scenarios for future human
greenhouse gas emissions, showing that a new Maunder Minimum would only slightly
diminish future warming. Finally I will comment on recent predictions on the development
of global temperatures in the next few decades.