Scottish Survey of Literacy and Numeracy
Support Materials
Ideas of chance and uncertainty: First Level
Part 3
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk
First Level - Ideas of Chance and Uncertainty
Experience and Outcome: MNU 1-22a
I can use appropriate vocabulary to describe the likelihood of events occurring, using the
knowledge and experiences of myself and others to guide me.
Learning Intention
What do we realise? (building awareness and
understanding)
Success Criteria
We can:
 decide on the probability of an
event occurring by listing the
variables to make an informed
decision.
We are learning to be aware of:
 the concept of probability and how this can affect
o events from taking place
o our judgements when we make decisions
o how we predict outcomes
We are learning to:
 interpret and sort 2 sets of information to determine the
probability of an event/outcome occurring.
 use our own ideas/experiences to make informed
decisions about chance.
 give reasons why events are more/less likely to happen.

Use our experience and
knowledge to explain reasons for
choices and inform our opinions.

Sort information provided to an
organised list to inform our
decisions and predict the most
likely outcome.
Key Vocabulary:
Predictability and uncertainty in events, sometimes, always/certain, probable and never to describe
events, Likely, unlikely or possible,impossible to describe the likelihood of event occurring
Learning and Teaching Ideas
 Which of these statements is most likely?
Use a bank of statements/pictures/vocabulary (depending on the topic/age/stage) to allow children
the opportunity to explore a context and decide upon the most likely outcome. For example:
o
What is the most likely thing you will find in a rock pool at the beach?
 A penny, a shell, a crab or a mermaid
Statements can also be used to help children explore a list of events/outcomes and decide on the
order of probability starting from the most and/or least likely.
 What’s in the bag?
Show children a bag/box which has 2 red, 2 blue, 1 white, 1 yellow and 1 green cube/ball/card in it.
Get the children to experiment by shaking the bag/box and then drawing out one coloured object
without looking. Ask the children to make predictions for what they think the colour will be. Which
colour is most/least likely to be picked? What information do they have to base their decision on?
Extend the children’s thinking by giving them each a set of cards with 4 out of the 5 colours as a
possible choice (omit one of the colours with 2 in the bag e.g omit blue which will leave red as the
only other colour that has 2) Tell them that you are going to draw a ball out without looking and that
you want them to predict what colour they think it will be by holding up one of their cards. Children
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk
will now have to consider which colour is most likely to be drawn based on both colour and the
number of objects. Discuss how children made their selection for example: How likely is it that I will
select red?
 Exploring chance when outcomes are likely/unlikely to happen but not certain/impossible
Provide children with opportunities to explore questions/experiments which involve outcomes which
are likely to happen but are not certain. Board games are a good context to explore the idea of an
outcome being likely to happen but not certain as the children are able to play the game for
themselves and then have the experience to support their decisions. For example:
o
Snakes and Ladders. Give children the board game and pose the following to the group;
 You are 2 away from a ladder and 5 away from a snake, are both of these
outcomes possible in your next throw?
 Is one more likely than the other?
 Once children have given answers, discuss HOW they decided.
The board games ‘Cluedo’ and ‘Guess who’ are good for developing the idea of likely outcomes
though not certain based on questioning and reasoning.
Numeracy across learning
 Health and wellbeing
This is a good context for looking at personal safety and beginning to explore risk with children. It is
also a context where they are able to draw on their own experience to help make decisions. For
example:
o
What are the chances of you getting knocked over by a car if you do not use the zebra
crossing when walking to school?

A – certain

B – likely

C – possible

D – Impossible
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk

Information Handling as a vehicle to discuss probability
Exploring data handling by creating graphs, tables and charts is a great vehicle for children to extend
their knowledge of predicting outcomes on a subject by interpreting the information available to them
and drawing conclusions. The ‘Topmarks’ website
(http://www.topmarks.co.uk/Interactive.aspx?cat=28) has lots of interactive data handling activities
which can be used with your class to discuss probability.
Further Links:
BBC Numbertime – Interactive Snakes & Ladders which could be used on the SMARtboard.
 http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/numbertime/games/snakes.shtml
Woodlands Junior Primary School Interactive maths zone – data handling
 http://www.woodlands-junior.kent.sch.uk/maths/data.htm#prob
Create a graph
 http://nces.ed.gov/nceskids/createagraph/
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk