Collective
perspective
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
Ecoforecasting: Hydrology EPSCoR Update
David R. Steward, Civil Engineering
Daniel Andresen, Computer & Information Science
Eric A. Bernard, Landscape Architecture
David G. Chandler, Civil Engineering
László
szló J. Kulcsá
Kulcsár, Sociology
Jeffrey M. Peterson, Agricultural Economics
Stephen M. Welch, Agronomy
Tom Bulatewicz,
Bulatewicz, PostPost-doc, Computer Science
Xiaoying Yang, PostPost-doc., Civil Engineering
Jesse Benedict, B.L.A., Landscape Architecture
Benjamin Bolender,
Bolender, Ph.D., Sociology
Joshua Campbell, Ph.D., Geography
Nathan Hoffman, B.S., Agricultural Economics
Tor Jansen, M.L.A., Landscape Architecture
Nathaniel Kersey, M.L.A., Landscape Architecture
Simon Lauwo,
Lauwo, Ph.D., Civil Engineering
Aaron Tygart, B.S., Computer Science
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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Components: Hydrology
Collective
perspective
Study: Water Mass, Flux,
Residence Time, and
Pathways
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
Methods:
Conservation Laws
and Constitutive
Relationships
(Yang, Steward, de Lange, Lauwo,
Chubb & Bernard, 2007)
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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Components: Ecology
Collective
perspective
Study: Relationships
between Organisms and
their Environment
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
Methods:
Clustering,
Maximum Entropy
(Jin, Staggenborg, Lauwo, Miller,
Das, Andresen, Peterson, Steward,
Welch, 2006)
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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Components: Sociology
Collective
perspective
Study: Origins,
Organization, Institutions,
and Development of
Human Society
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
Population estimates - Sheridan, Sherman, Rooks Thomas & Graham
10000
9000
7000
P o pu lation
Methods:
Positivists, and
Constructivists
Theory
8000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Ye ars
2000
2010
Sheridan
Rooks
Thomas
2020
2030
Sherman
Graham
(Kulcsar and Bernard, 2006)
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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Components: Economics
Collective
perspective
Study: Production,
Development, and
Management of Material
Wealth
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
Pumping Rates
(Acre-feet/year)
Crop Choices
Methods: Linear
Regression,
Agent Based
Modeling
(Steward and Peterson, 2006)
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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Components: Land Use Planning
Collective
perspective
Study: Formulate Detailed
Scheme, Program, or
Method
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
Methods:
Information
Suggests
Opportunities
and
Constraints
Water Use (3D height) & Population Change (color code)
(Kulcsar and Bernard, 2006)
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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A Water Resources System
Collective
perspective
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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A Water Resources System
Collective
perspective
Population estimates - Sheridan, Sherman, Rooks Thomas & Graham
10000
9000
8000
P opulation
7000
Deliverables
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Contributions
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Years
2000
2010
Sheridan
Rooks
Thomas
2020
2030
Sherman
Graham
The Future
Pumping Rates
(Acre-feet/year)
4/23/2007
Crop Choices
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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GIS Data
Collective
perspective
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
(Steward and Bernard, 2007)
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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Supporting Technology
Collective
perspective
Central Plains Virtual Observatory
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
gis.ksu.edu/ogallala
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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Education & Evaluation
Collective
perspective
Deliverables
Water and Society
An Interdisciplinary Collaborative Seminar
Contributions
The Future
Coordinators: Eric Bernard, Associate Professor1
Laszlo Kulcsar, Assistant Professor2
Jeffrey Peterson, Associate Professor3
David Steward, Associate Professor4
Stephen Welch, Professor5
Evaluators:
Linda Thurston, Jan Middendorf & Cindi Dunn, OEIE
1
Landscape
Landscape Architecture/Regional & Community Planning
2
Sociology, Anthropology and Social Work
3
Agricultural Economics
4
Civil Engineering
5
Agronomy
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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Proposals
NSF BE/CNH
Collective
perspective
Changing Paths of Land-, Water-, and
Resource-Use in the Central Plains
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
PIs: Welch, Bernard, Kulscar, Peterson,
Steward, Andresen, Das, DeLoach,
Egbert, Price, Rice, Saak, Staggenborg,
Thurston
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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Proposals
NSF CZO
Collective
perspective
The Mid-Continental Critical Zone
Observatory
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
PIs: Steward, Chandler, Kelly,
Macpherson, Martinko, Andresen,
Bernard, Blair, Bussaca, Butler,
Caragea, Dodds, Egbert, Frost, Ham,
Hansen, Johnson, Kluitenberg,
Koelliker, Oviatt, Price, Ransom, Reddi,
Roberts, Wall, Welch, Whittemore,
Wright
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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Proposals
NSF HSD
Collective
perspective
Deliverables
Contributions
Hyper-extraction, carrying capacity and
community sustainability: Social
transformation and resource
dependence in Western Kansas
The Future
PIs: Kulcsar, Aistrup, Bernard, Peterson,
Steward, Dunn, Welch
4/23/2007
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Proposals
NSF IGERT
Collective
perspective
Deliverables
Scientific Responses to Water
Resources Issues in InformationRich Environments
Contributions
The Future
PIs: Steward, Kulcsar, Martinko, Thurston,
Welch, Andresen, Bernard, Blair,
Caragea, Egbert, Guikema, Kisangani,
Peterson
4/23/2007
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Posters
Collective
perspective
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
Jonathan Aguilar, David Chandler, James Koelliker,
David Steward, Deb Walks, Xiaoying YangChanging sources, sinks and ground water surface water interactions in the Upper Smoky
Hills watershed: A history of stream network and
refugia fragmentation
Eric Bernard and Stephen Welch- Science to aid policy
makers, communities and land owners-managers
Tom Bulatewicz, Jeffrey Peterson, David Steward, Eric
Bernard, Daniel Andresen and Stephen WelchExploring ecological change in a virtual landscape
Simon Lauwo and David Steward- Coupling crop and
hydrologic model for decision support in the High
Plain Aquifer
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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Collective
perspective
Deliverables
Research: Ecoforecasting tools on
Beocat (grid cyberinfrastructure)
Contributions
The Future
Education: Water & Society
Outreach: Community Engagement
Collaborations: Institutional
resources to host regional meetings
4/23/2007
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The Questions
Collective
perspective
Deliverables
Contributions
The Future
What are the economic and social ramifications
of alternative Conservation Reserve
Enhancement Program policies, and will
resulting changes in land-use reestablish
streamflow in rivers that have been dewatered
through over appropriated water-use?
What effect will changes in US Energy policy
related to biofuels have on water resources, the
ecosystem’s carrying capacity, and agricultural
food production?
How do community values integrate with remote
sensing information and GIScience to support
effective international policy for water projects
that cross border in developing nations?
4/23/2007
NSF EPSCoR Ecoforecasting
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