Forecasting Ecological Change
in the Central Plains:
Efforts to Integrate Data from
Natural History Collections
Craig C. Freeman
Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Institute
&
Kansas Biological Survey
University of Kansas
Lawrence, KS 66047
ccfree@ku.edu
Ecosystem & Biodiversity
Process & Function
Natural
History
Collections
Freeman – overview
Ferguson – examples
Integration
Modeling
Gido – overview
Mechanistic
Studies
Hoeinghaus – examples
Ecoforecasting
Primary Objectives
Deploy natural history collection data to:
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document biodiversity patterns
add value to existing collections
build public support for biodiversity
Answer fundamental questions about how
human-mediated changes affect the
biodiversity of the Central Plains
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ecological services
agriculture (crops, pollinators, pests, forage)
public health (disease vectors, emerging diseases)
invasive species
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Web-based integration of
occurrence data for critical
collections that are digitally
ready
Databasing and
georeferencing of critical
collections that are not
digitally ready
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Integration,
mapping, and
analysis of
biodiversity data
using web-based
informatics tools
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Survey and
inventory of target
areas and taxa
where critical gaps
are identified
Modeling
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Ecological niche models correlate
species’ distributions and ecological
parameters
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species occurrence points
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specimens provide presence data
data must be georeferenced
precision determines fitness for uses
ecological-environmental coverages
Yields hypothesis about dimensions
of a species’ niche
Projected onto landscape; identifies
regions with conditions inside/outside
the species’ niche
Resolution generally 103-104 m
Data Processing
Taxon
Priorities
Asset
Assessment
Databased?
No
Database
Yes
Georeferenced?
No
Georeference
Yes
Precision
Estimated?
Yes
Integrate
No
Estimate
Precision
Product
Process yields georeferenced point
occurrence data based on collection data
associated with a natural history specimen
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ID: 6640
Collection: KU plants
collection number: 349734
Taxon name: Pluchea odorata
Year: 30/Sep/2002
State: Kansas
County: Chautauqua
Specific locality: Chautauqua, just SE
Legal description: T35S R11E SEC11 NW4 center
Remarks (locality and habitat): Chautauqua City Park and abandoned spa area.
Post oak-blackjack oak forest, weedy sandstone glade, and mowed parkland on
NE-facing slope and sandstone bluffs above spring-fed tributary to Turkey Creek.
Latitude: 37.0219°N
Longitude: 96.1731°W
Latlong source: GPS
OriginalDatum: WGS84/NAD83
DeterminedByPerson: Mark Sedarous
DeterminedDate: 39149
DeterminationRef: GPS
OriginalCoordSystem: decimal degree
Datum: WGS84
DecLat: 37.0219
DecLong: -96.1731
MaxErrorDistance: 44.221
MaxErrorUnits: m
LatLongRemarks:
Captive Flag:
NoGeorefBecause:
Locality Annotation:
Extent: 30
Named Place: GPS coordinates
Assets
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Personnel
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ca 24 faculty, staff, and students active in collectionbased biodiversity work
Primary Collection Assets
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Kansas State University
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University of Kansas
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Museum of Entomological and Prairie Arthropod Research –
824,000 insects
Herbarium – 200,000 vascular plants and bryophytes
Biodiversity Institute – >7 million specimens
KBS Aquatic Insect Collection – 500,000 specimens
Secondary Collection Assets
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KDHE – 55,000 invertebrate records from stream monitoring
work
KDWP – mussel collections
Priority Taxa
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Identified in proposal
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vertebrates (birds, fish, mammals,
reptiles)
insects (e.g., grasshoppers)
unionid mussels
vascular plants
Added
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leafhoppers, crickets
lichens
Status of Collections
Collection Digitally Ready Or Essentially Digitally Ready
Need
D
G
P
KU Amphibians/Reptiles
X
KU Fish
X
KU Mammals
X
Collections Not Digitally Ready
KU Birds
X
X
KSU Vascular Plants
X
X
X
KU Vascular Plants
X
X
X
X
X
KU Lichens
KSU Insects
X
X
X
KU Invertebrates (non-insect)
X
X
X
KU Insects
X
X
X
Starting Statistics
7%
12%
15%
35%
Plants/Lichens
Vertebrates
Invertebrates
Plants/Lichens
Vertebrates
Invertebrates
53%
78%
Databased Great Plains specimens:
n = 1.34 million
Great Plains specimens:
n = 4.54 million
0%
2%
0%
39%
59%
Plants/Lichens
Vertebrates
Invertebrates
Plants/Lichens
Vertebrates
Invertebrates
100%
Georeferenced Great Plains specimens:
n = 1.09 million
Precision-estimated Great Plains
specimens: n = 0.06 million
Priority Collections:
Great Plains Specimens
Millions
Thousands
3
Insects
2
N
D
D+G
D+G+P
1.5
1
0.5
Vascular Plants
300
2.5
250
200
N
D
150
D+G
100
D+G+P
50
0
PreEPSCoR
0
Current
Thousands
Thousands
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
45
40
35
30
N
D
D+G
D+G+P
Birds
Lichens
Pre-EPSCoR
Current
N
25
20
15
D
D+G
D+G+P
10
5
0
PreEPSCoR
Current
PreEPSCoR
Current
Databasing
•1.49 million Great
Plains specimens
databased
Projected
•10.9% increase in
total number of
databased records
since mid-2006
Current
PreEPSCoR
• 6,636 records/mo
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Specimens x1000
Not Databased
Databased
5000
•net increase of
238,904 specimens by
mid-2009
Databasing
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>146,000 specimen records added to databases
since mid-2006
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insects
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vascular plants
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KSU + KU – 100,000 specimens
lichens
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KSU + KU – 42,000 Orthoptera specimens
KSU – started work on Cicadellidae
KU – 4,000 specimens
>10,000 old records QCed
Issues
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Infrastructure support – Specify used by most
units for collection data management
Databasing has used EPSCoR and nonEPSCoR resources
Databasing sequence = KS, NE, CO, and other
Great Plains states
Data characteristics
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systematic databasing problems
temporal and spatial biases
Georeferencing
•1.27 million Great
Plains specimens
georeferenced
Projected
•16.2% increase in
total number of
georeferenced records
since mid-2006
Current
PreEPSCoR
•8,000 records/mo
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Specimens x1000
Not Georeferenced
Georeferenced
•net increase of
288,000 specimens by
mid-2009
Precision Estimation
•0.17 million Great
Plains specimens
precision-estimated
Projected
•291.9% increase in
total number of
precision-estimated
records since mid-2006
Current
PreEPSCoR
•7,772 records/mo
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Specimens x1000
Not Estimated
Estimated
5000
•net increase of
279,808 records by
mid-2009
Issues
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Georeferencing expertise
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BioGeomancer protocols used
BioGeomancer Workbench
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1 team at KU; 3-6 students, supervisor
2008 training workshop
not available for batch processing
2-step approach being used
Data characteristics
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systematic georeferencing problems
fitness of data for modeling
Integration
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Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF)
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BioGeomancer Project
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serve ca 170,000 new georeferenced records
serve ca 100,000 new databased records
QCed georeference records to be shared with collections
community
Potential integrative studies
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species interactions (monarch and milkweeds)
plant/animal dispersal in fragmented landscapes
migratory species (birds, butterflies)
phenological changes
potential impact of invasive species on natural communities
Year 3 Goals
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New data
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Training
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database, georeference, and precision-estimate ca 100,000 new
specimen records
attach georeference attributes to specimen records
georeferencing workshop – May 2008
Data deployment
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GBIF – georeferenced specimen data
BioGeomancer – georeferenced localities
Web-based tools for visualization
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ArcView
LifeMapper
Analysis, modeling, and forecasting
Acknowledgments
Special Thanks
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KSU
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M. Papes (KU birds), A. Peterson (KU birds)
H. Huang, B. McCann, M. Sedarous, C. Ramirez, J. Soberón, D. WhiteMan (KU)
Kansas State University Herbarium: C. Ferguson, M. Mayfield, S. Mohandass
Museum of Entomological and Prairie Arthropod Research: G. Zolnerowich
Biology: M. Evans-White, K. Gido, D. Hoeinghaus, A. Joern
KU
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Biodiversity Institute: A. Bentley (fish), R. Brown (herps), A. Crowther (inverts),
M. Engel (insects), Z. Falin (insects), D. Fautin (inverts), C. Morse (plants), R.
O’Leary (plants), A. Peterson (birds), M. Robbins (birds), J. Simmons (herps), J.
Soberón, J. Thomas (insects), R. Timm (mammals), L. Trueb (herps), E. Wiley
(fish)
Kansas Biological Survey: D. Huggins (aquatic insects), P. Liechti (aquatic
insects), E. Martinko (insects)