Forecasting Ecological Change in the Central Plains: Efforts to Integrate Data from Natural History Collections Craig C. Freeman Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Institute & Kansas Biological Survey University of Kansas Lawrence, KS 66047 ccfree@ku.edu Ecosystem & Biodiversity Process & Function Natural History Collections Freeman – overview Ferguson – examples Integration Modeling Gido – overview Mechanistic Studies Hoeinghaus – examples Ecoforecasting Primary Objectives Deploy natural history collection data to: document biodiversity patterns add value to existing collections build public support for biodiversity Answer fundamental questions about how human-mediated changes affect the biodiversity of the Central Plains ecological services agriculture (crops, pollinators, pests, forage) public health (disease vectors, emerging diseases) invasive species Web-based integration of occurrence data for critical collections that are digitally ready Databasing and georeferencing of critical collections that are not digitally ready Integration, mapping, and analysis of biodiversity data using web-based informatics tools Survey and inventory of target areas and taxa where critical gaps are identified Modeling Ecological niche models correlate species’ distributions and ecological parameters species occurrence points specimens provide presence data data must be georeferenced precision determines fitness for uses ecological-environmental coverages Yields hypothesis about dimensions of a species’ niche Projected onto landscape; identifies regions with conditions inside/outside the species’ niche Resolution generally 103-104 m Data Processing Taxon Priorities Asset Assessment Databased? No Database Yes Georeferenced? No Georeference Yes Precision Estimated? Yes Integrate No Estimate Precision Product Process yields georeferenced point occurrence data based on collection data associated with a natural history specimen ID: 6640 Collection: KU plants collection number: 349734 Taxon name: Pluchea odorata Year: 30/Sep/2002 State: Kansas County: Chautauqua Specific locality: Chautauqua, just SE Legal description: T35S R11E SEC11 NW4 center Remarks (locality and habitat): Chautauqua City Park and abandoned spa area. Post oak-blackjack oak forest, weedy sandstone glade, and mowed parkland on NE-facing slope and sandstone bluffs above spring-fed tributary to Turkey Creek. Latitude: 37.0219°N Longitude: 96.1731°W Latlong source: GPS OriginalDatum: WGS84/NAD83 DeterminedByPerson: Mark Sedarous DeterminedDate: 39149 DeterminationRef: GPS OriginalCoordSystem: decimal degree Datum: WGS84 DecLat: 37.0219 DecLong: -96.1731 MaxErrorDistance: 44.221 MaxErrorUnits: m LatLongRemarks: Captive Flag: NoGeorefBecause: Locality Annotation: Extent: 30 Named Place: GPS coordinates Assets Personnel ca 24 faculty, staff, and students active in collectionbased biodiversity work Primary Collection Assets Kansas State University University of Kansas Museum of Entomological and Prairie Arthropod Research – 824,000 insects Herbarium – 200,000 vascular plants and bryophytes Biodiversity Institute – >7 million specimens KBS Aquatic Insect Collection – 500,000 specimens Secondary Collection Assets KDHE – 55,000 invertebrate records from stream monitoring work KDWP – mussel collections Priority Taxa Identified in proposal vertebrates (birds, fish, mammals, reptiles) insects (e.g., grasshoppers) unionid mussels vascular plants Added leafhoppers, crickets lichens Status of Collections Collection Digitally Ready Or Essentially Digitally Ready Need D G P KU Amphibians/Reptiles X KU Fish X KU Mammals X Collections Not Digitally Ready KU Birds X X KSU Vascular Plants X X X KU Vascular Plants X X X X X KU Lichens KSU Insects X X X KU Invertebrates (non-insect) X X X KU Insects X X X Starting Statistics 7% 12% 15% 35% Plants/Lichens Vertebrates Invertebrates Plants/Lichens Vertebrates Invertebrates 53% 78% Databased Great Plains specimens: n = 1.34 million Great Plains specimens: n = 4.54 million 0% 2% 0% 39% 59% Plants/Lichens Vertebrates Invertebrates Plants/Lichens Vertebrates Invertebrates 100% Georeferenced Great Plains specimens: n = 1.09 million Precision-estimated Great Plains specimens: n = 0.06 million Priority Collections: Great Plains Specimens Millions Thousands 3 Insects 2 N D D+G D+G+P 1.5 1 0.5 Vascular Plants 300 2.5 250 200 N D 150 D+G 100 D+G+P 50 0 PreEPSCoR 0 Current Thousands Thousands 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 45 40 35 30 N D D+G D+G+P Birds Lichens Pre-EPSCoR Current N 25 20 15 D D+G D+G+P 10 5 0 PreEPSCoR Current PreEPSCoR Current Databasing •1.49 million Great Plains specimens databased Projected •10.9% increase in total number of databased records since mid-2006 Current PreEPSCoR • 6,636 records/mo 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Specimens x1000 Not Databased Databased 5000 •net increase of 238,904 specimens by mid-2009 Databasing >146,000 specimen records added to databases since mid-2006 insects vascular plants KSU + KU – 100,000 specimens lichens KSU + KU – 42,000 Orthoptera specimens KSU – started work on Cicadellidae KU – 4,000 specimens >10,000 old records QCed Issues Infrastructure support – Specify used by most units for collection data management Databasing has used EPSCoR and nonEPSCoR resources Databasing sequence = KS, NE, CO, and other Great Plains states Data characteristics systematic databasing problems temporal and spatial biases Georeferencing •1.27 million Great Plains specimens georeferenced Projected •16.2% increase in total number of georeferenced records since mid-2006 Current PreEPSCoR •8,000 records/mo 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Specimens x1000 Not Georeferenced Georeferenced •net increase of 288,000 specimens by mid-2009 Precision Estimation •0.17 million Great Plains specimens precision-estimated Projected •291.9% increase in total number of precision-estimated records since mid-2006 Current PreEPSCoR •7,772 records/mo 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Specimens x1000 Not Estimated Estimated 5000 •net increase of 279,808 records by mid-2009 Issues Georeferencing expertise BioGeomancer protocols used BioGeomancer Workbench 1 team at KU; 3-6 students, supervisor 2008 training workshop not available for batch processing 2-step approach being used Data characteristics systematic georeferencing problems fitness of data for modeling Integration Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) BioGeomancer Project serve ca 170,000 new georeferenced records serve ca 100,000 new databased records QCed georeference records to be shared with collections community Potential integrative studies species interactions (monarch and milkweeds) plant/animal dispersal in fragmented landscapes migratory species (birds, butterflies) phenological changes potential impact of invasive species on natural communities Year 3 Goals New data Training database, georeference, and precision-estimate ca 100,000 new specimen records attach georeference attributes to specimen records georeferencing workshop – May 2008 Data deployment GBIF – georeferenced specimen data BioGeomancer – georeferenced localities Web-based tools for visualization ArcView LifeMapper Analysis, modeling, and forecasting Acknowledgments Special Thanks KSU M. Papes (KU birds), A. Peterson (KU birds) H. Huang, B. McCann, M. Sedarous, C. Ramirez, J. Soberón, D. WhiteMan (KU) Kansas State University Herbarium: C. Ferguson, M. Mayfield, S. Mohandass Museum of Entomological and Prairie Arthropod Research: G. Zolnerowich Biology: M. Evans-White, K. Gido, D. Hoeinghaus, A. Joern KU Biodiversity Institute: A. Bentley (fish), R. Brown (herps), A. Crowther (inverts), M. Engel (insects), Z. Falin (insects), D. Fautin (inverts), C. Morse (plants), R. O’Leary (plants), A. Peterson (birds), M. Robbins (birds), J. Simmons (herps), J. Soberón, J. Thomas (insects), R. Timm (mammals), L. Trueb (herps), E. Wiley (fish) Kansas Biological Survey: D. Huggins (aquatic insects), P. Liechti (aquatic insects), E. Martinko (insects)