models EGU of simulation

advertisement
Research
Geophysical
Vol
EGU
General
2009
Ager and
Finney
models
simulation
decisions
strategic
feasible
simulate
to
ha
2000000
of research
and
MTT
program
www.fire.org
for
this
we
BP
probability
area
that
resulting
100000
where
under
scenarios
To quantify
others
fire intensity
to
highly-valued
wildland
values
expected
value
from
fuels
within
from
fire
the
data
relatively
large
instance
among
Average
BP
0.01
The
for
as
habitat
ranging
lava
loss
nesting
from
130
0.0
to
for
forest
lakes
for
random
Variation
study
the
different
we
area
repeated
scenario
use
units
surface
including
that
the
relate
in
change
and
fuels
other
estimate
to
change
the
and
areas
classes
intensity
these
for
models
measured
also
occurred
We
measure
to
carbon
the
pixel
that
recreation
effects
fire
and
100
fire
management
using
for
100
on
resources
calculated
watersheds
burn
fire-prone
fire
weather
was
relationships
BPs
Northern
was
intensities
fire
Conservation
areas
spotted
mean
value
owl we
of
1.5%
simulations
0.0022
single
in
risk
were
for
0.00001
to
observed
of
on
expected
Expected
loss
0.04
lee
side
probabilities
loss
was
from
strongly
suppression
resources
from 0.0001
and
of
units
protection
values
varied
the conservation
the
wildfire
fire
highly
estimated
from simulations
escapes
and
varied
owl averaged
many
located
BR When
that
among
BP
from
probability
estimate
fire
conservation
average
spotted
burn
The
large
likelihood
areas
ranged
annual
the
designated
higher
that
markedly reduced
from
wildfire
interface
by the endangered
high
showed
with
burning
in
the
was
2003
BP among
forest-urban
fro
comparison
In
1910
pixel
in
rock
0.007
differences
spatial
the Northern
9.4%
water
of
area
study
different
used
sites
BPs
and
functions
the
of
expected
managed
flows
the
BP
The
of
wildland
average
of
valued
events
wildfire
August
designated
these
USA
each
for
replicate
aboveground
with
of
severe
municipal
used
in
focused
is
highly
probability
percentile
to
functions
areas
subset
fuels
value
mean
illustrated
the
marginal
the surrounding
burnable
non
within
is
and
We
were then coupled
pixel
recent
key
loss-benefit
the
were estimated
The
habitat
conservation
For
of
of
product
97th
number
of
of
weather
species
consumption
wildlife
each
probability
difference
some
number
State
number
reduction
fuel
among
Oregon
and
replicated
August
for
protected
functions
with
area
the average
fires
that
ineffective
are
FlamMap3
patterns
work
of
region
classes
SMP
bit
boundaries
spatial
ecological
the
number
desktop
fire
The
values
types
as
intensity
percentile
and biomass
fuel
risk
conditions
and
areas
and
bit
large
understand
to
algorithm
replicate
10000
in
U.S
western
interior
and
can
areas
64
32-way
32
in the
the
selected resources
excluding
For
such
for
study
was
to
risk
occurrence
represents
within
for
central
was generally
70th
designated
key
human
e.g
computers
from
computationally
large
imbedded
is
tactical
support
resulted
it
over
and
processing
to
has
makes
that
maps
implemented
the
U.S
the
application
intensity
algorithm
in
MTT
defined
also
this
the
specific
manage
to
loss-benefit
change
BP
of
0.026
hence
The
the
at
developed
mortality
forest
management
Estimates
weather
we
in
burn
suppression
conservation
risk
tree
old
under
variation
interface
to
quantitatively
minimized
examine
to
forest-urban
fire
of
topography
probabilities
milder
is
suppression
of
that
wildlands
risk
landscape
array
We
wildfires
where
conditions
ha
performance
is
this
Finney
and
High
algorithm
the
application
wide
Burn
of
wildfire
analyze
fire
consequence
simulation
the
to
much
of
algorithm
probability
multi-threaded
shown
has
testing
the
the
in
specialists
Much
for
parallelized
although
typify
2000000
by simulating
under
to
encompasses
susceptible
are
that
describe
federally-managed
is
burn
modeling applications
Extensive
and
spread
fire
fuels
risk
wildfire
and generate
fires
simulations
landscapes
paper
of
and
fire
by
of
MTT
time
algorithm
fire
applied
used
used
widely
the mitigation
travel
MTT
The
being
to
thousands
typically
heterogeneous
are
related
minimum
of
development
study
for risk analysis
fs.fed.us
Wildfire
In
models
of wildfire simulation
Application
aager@
2009
Assembly
Authors
and
Abstracts
EGU2009-5489 2009
11
areas
to
0.02
from 0.001
compared
non-burnable
fuels
were
combined
random
wildfire
correlated
with
with
event
BP
for
00020
owl habitat
area
resulted
severe
In
total
for
fuels
the
this
in
97th
to
work
management
between
fires
70th
at
levels
decrease
significant
in prioritizing
conflict
minimum
below
However
size
wildfire
useful
mild
to
because
apparently
closure
canopy
in
demonstrated
expected
the
of
treatments
lands
in
with
of
in
other
efforts
the
on
The
well
spread
wildfire
mitigation
federally-managed
in
to
revealed
activities
lands
and
changing
with
The
weather
specific
risk
variation
work
and the high
stand
subunit
reduced
quantitative
spatial
reduced
on
BP and
correlated
models
analyses
of
effect
8-fold drop
departures
U.S The
mortality
treatments
fuel
strategic
dramatic
wildfire
the
understory
owl habitat
of
resulted
and guiding
biodiversity conservation
simulating
loss
application
caused
intensities
was not uniform
on federally-managed
fuels
low
effect
weather
percentile
the reduction
very
The
of
the
from
the average
fuel
models
assessment
in
BP
that
is
also illuminated
wildfire
risk
on
fire-prone landscapes
00021
Download