Cabrillo Fall Student Headcount Projections
STUDENT HEADCOUNT & ENROLLMENT
Fall Historical
Projected Fall Enrollment
Lower Limit
Upper limit
20,000
19,000
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
Year
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Historic Headcount
Percent
Fall Actual Change
12,587
12,759
1.4%
12,129
-4.9%
12,767
5.3%
13,596
6.5%
13,767
1.3%
13,707
-0.4%
13,604
-0.8%
14,871
9.3%
15,231
2.4%
14,867
-2.4%
14,623
-1.6%
15,157
3.7%
15,056
-0.7%
16,069
6.7%
16,924
5.3%
16,467
-2.7%
Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Projected Headcount
Fall
Percent
Projected Change
15,611
-5.2%
5.2%
15,336
-1.8%
15,264
-0.5%
15,263
0.0%
15,290
0.2%
15,180
-0.7%
Lower
Limit
14,320
14,039
13,912
13,883
13,890
13,737
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
12,000
Upper
limit
17,006
16,806
16,803
16,828
16,878
16,806
Projected fall headcount is a gauge of community demand.
The current model suggests that demand is driven chiefly by
population growth, graduating high school class sizes, and
county unemployment levels. While enrollment fees do
affect student headcount their future levels are not known, so
they are not used in the projection formula.
Strategic Enrollment Management initiatives may result in an
actual enrollment pattern that deviates significantly from the
enrollment level that is projected based on demand.
Projected fall headcount is based on projected county population growth, projected high school graduating class size, and
Santa Cruz County unemployement levels. A Prais-Winsten weighted least squares equation was run in Stata 8 MP to create the
student headcount forecast. This statistical technique properly handles the autocorrelation associated with a time series.
The projection assumes that fees remain at $26 per unit (an increase in fees will create downward pressure on enrollment).
Sources: Data Warehouse (1993-2009); Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded
Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County , 2009 Series. Sacramento, California, November 2009;
Department of Finance County-level Demographic projections; and Claritas population and employment projections.
CABRILLO COLLEGE 2010 FACTBOOK version 1.12. Jan.10.2011