5th Workshop on "SMART Cable Systems: Latest Developments and Designing the Wet Demonstrator Project" (Dubai, UAE, 17-18 April 2016) Recent progress of the ITU/UNESCO-IOC/WMO Joint Task Force (JTF) on SMART Cable Systems Christopher R. Barnes Chair, ITU/WMO/IOC-UNESCO Joint Task Force School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada crbarnes@uvic.ca Facilitation by ITU-WMO-UNESCO IOC’s Joint Task Force (JTF) JTF, and its three sponsoring agencies, will promote, collaborate and facilitate in: • Helping advocate for and review proposed SMART subsea cable systems • Linking key stakeholders: cable owners and suppliers with international and national agencies/NGOs responsible for social and economic benefits, monitoring and disasters • Wet Demonstrator project: seeking an Expression of Interest from industry and ocean observatories • JTF Workshop, 17-18 April 2016, Dubai (before SubOptic): planning industry and ocean observatory support for a specific wet demonstrator project We need your help and support! Societal benefits in adding sensors for climate and disaster monitoring Societal and environmental issues: • Climate change – ocean temperature and circulation – direct impact on societies • Sea level rise – hazard for coastal states and cities • Disaster warning– tsunami monitoring throughout ocean basins and coastal margins • Some past trends and disturbing future predictions (next slides) Climate Change: cause and effects Mauna Loa, Hawaii, CO2 record: 1960-2015 Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years “We conclude that, given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years. We suggest that such a ‘noanalogue’ state represents a fundamental challenge in constraining future climate projections. Also, future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM.” Zeebe et al., 2016, Nature Geoscience “The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) “is the biggest, most massive carbon release event since dinosaurs disappeared,” “Because the rate of carbon dioxide release is 10 times faster today, the severity of climate change’s physical effects on the Earth, such as ocean acidification, could be much worse than we thought” said Richard Zeebe, Eos, 2016. Jan-Feb-March 2016 have each seen highest global monthly average temperature Methane explosion vents from Siberia’s permafrost One of dozens of newly discovered craters, 30km from Bovanenkovo, Yamal Peninsula, northern Siberia. Photo: Vasily Bogoyavlensky, 25 August 2014. The accumulation of energy in distinct parts of Earth’s climate system since 1971 Ocean warming dominates, with water at depths above 700 m (light blue) storing more heat than water below that depth (dark blue). Uncertainty in the ocean components dominates the total uncertainty (dashed lines at 90% confidence level). Sabra et al., Physics Today (2016) Arctic sea ice loss 1979-2015 The monthly average Arctic sea ice extent for February was the third lowest in the satellite record. Through 2015, the linear rate of decline for February extent is 2.9% per decade. Sea level rise Sea level change:1700-2100 IPCC WG 1 2013 Schematic of the global ocean overturning circulation Purple = upper ocean & thermocline. Red = denser thermocline & intermediate water. Orange = Indian Deep Water and Pacific Deep Water. Green = North Atlantic Deep Water. Blue = Antarctic Bottom Water. Gray = Bering Strait components & Mediterranean & Red Sea inflows Talley (2013) based on Talley et al. (2011), Schmitz (1995), Rahmstorf (2002), and Lumpkin and Speer (2007). IPCC WG 1 2013 Sea Change: 2015-2025 survey of the ocean sciences (U.S. NRC/NSF) • The ocean's overturning circulation varies in both space and time, with significant variability on time scales less than a year and with spatially non-uniform upwelling. Recent observations and modeling results have challenged the "great ocean conveyor belt" paradigm. For decades oceanographers assumed that the overturning circulation changed gradually, that its strength was coherent across the entire Atlantic and that the deep currents were concentrated along the western boundaries of the basins. Instead, it is now understood that the overturning circulation is marked by strong temporal and spatial variability and that the deep waters' equatorward pathways include the ocean interior. The Southern Ocean plays a key role in returning deep waters to the surface via wind-driven upwelling. This more sophisticated view of ocean circulation, which is the result of the international observational programs as well as the novel use of Lagrangian floats, opens new avenues for understanding ocean heat, freshwater and carbon transport. Earthquakes and tsunamis Coastal/infrastructure/ecosystem destruction by tsunamis and submarine slope failures • Several major tsunamis occurred in the last decade, notably associated with megathrust earthquakes between Mw 7.7 and 9.1, in Sumatra (2004), Java (2006), US Samoa (2009), Mantawai (2010), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011) resulting in severe loss of life and billions of dollars of anthropogenic, ecosystem and environmental damage • Reducing such losses and mitigating damage is a key factor in developing tsunami warning systems (Bernard and Robinson, 2009; Whitmore, 2009) Recent tsunamis: travel times and vast extent Travel times of the 26 December 2004 tsunami, Indonesia, generated by an offshore Mw 9.1 earthquake Travel times of the 11 March 2011 tsunami, northern Japan, generated by an offshore Mw 9 earthquake Reliable tsunami warning systems are owed to the world community Devastating effects of the 11 March 2011 tsunami, northern Japan, generated by an offshore Mw 9 earthquake Tsunami buoys malfunctioned as powerful Mw7.8 earthquake hits Indonesia, 2 March 2016 • JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) — Indonesian officials said Thursday (3 March 2016) that all 22 tsunami warning buoys installed near vulnerable islands failed to work when a powerful earthquake struck off the coast of Sumatra. • Disaster Mitigation Agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said the buoys were inoperable because of vandalism or a lack of funds for operation and maintenance. • "That made it difficult to determine whether or not the quake triggered a tsunami," Sutopo said. • A magnitude-7.8 earthquake hit parts of Sumatra and small islands in western Indonesia on Wednesday evening, sending thousands of islanders rushing to high ground but causing no major damage or deaths. • In 2004, a tsunami caused by a very powerful undersea earthquake killed 230,000 people in a dozen countries around the Indian Ocean, most of them in Aceh province on Sumatra. That quake had a magnitude of 9.1, nearly 90 times the strength of the quake on Wednesday. Earthquake hazard mitigation Global seismic hazard map developed by the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) (Giardini, 1999) Allen 2007 Global seismic hazard and extent of Early Earthquake Warnings (EEW) Symbols show the few regions of the world where public citizens and organizations currently receive earthquake warnings and the types of data used to generate those warnings. Background color is peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years from the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program. Sarah E. Minson et al. 2015 © the Authors. Published under a Creative Commons license by AAAS. ITU/WMO/UNESCO IOC’s Joint Task Force (JTF): Organization and recent activities Executive Committee Chair of the JTF Vice-Chair of the JTF Chair of Science and Society Committee Co-Chairs of Engineering Committee Co-Chairs of Business Model Committee Chair of Legal Committee Co-Chairs of Publicity, Outreach and Marketing Committee BARNES MELDRUM BUTLER HOWE Christopher David Rhett Bruce DOYLE COSTIN MARIANO BRESSIE BAYLIFF PHIBBS Laurie Michael John Kent Nigel Peter Secretariat OTA Hiroshi International Telecommunication Union (ITU) AARUP Thorkild CABRERA DELJU FISCHER Edgar Amir H. Albert GROSS Tom SCHOLL Reinhard Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Staff See: Annual Reports for 2014 and 2015 on website for details Science and Society Committee (Rhett Butler, Chair) • Germany’s GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) is organizing a SMART cable workshop focused on tsunamis, in Europe, late 2016. • Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) were discussed in a EU proposal regarding Cables in the Arctic—INTARCTOS. • Jérome Aucan (New Caledonia) discussed plans for two new cables: Nouméa-Mare Island and Mare Island-Vanuatu (Port Vila) with wet demonstrator potential. • JTF input at UNESCO-IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group of the Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/PTWS), Hawaii; discussion with Joan Gomberg (USGS) on a proposed subduction zone monitoring system. • Continued engagement with US Congressional staff regarding Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act of 2015 (H.R.34) and potential for using SMART cables. • University of Hawaii installed a Paroscientific nano-resolution pressure sensor—proposed as a sensory component of SMART cables—at ALOHA Cabled Observatory. • New members added to the Committee: Ikuko Wada (Tohoku University; University of Minnesota), Joan Gomberg (USGS), Charlotte Rowe (LANL), Frederik Tilmann and Maik Thomas (GFZ). Engineering Committee (Bruce Howe and Laurie Doyle, Co-Chairs) • Two documents were released from embargo in May: • Functional Requirements of “green” submarine cable systems • Scope document and budgetary cost estimate for a “Wet Demonstrator”. • An Expression of Interest letter for Wet Demonstrator project sent to industry CEOs and cabled ocean observatories by Dr. Chaesub Lee (Director, TSB/ITU), March 2015. Three observatories responded positively: EMSO (Europe), ALOHA Cabled Observatory (ACO, Hawaii), Ocean Networks Canada. More definitive commitments will be sought (in-kind support, funding, schedule). • Alternatives to working with an existing cabled observatory were considered, including developments by: • Partnership with a new localized commercial cable between 2 island states (e.g. in Western Pacific) or in North Alaska; • One or more commercial companies as a commercial enterprise; • An intermediate phase of simulation and modelling. • Howe presented the JTF program to Interagency Working Group (IWG/OP), NSF, BOEM, NASA, USGS, ONR, NOAA, USGS, FWS, US Coast Guard, in Washington, July, 2015; and again to BOEM (Bureau of Ocean Energy Management) in August. • Howe led 2nd NASA Workshop, University of Hawaii, May 2015 (From space to the deep seafloor: Using “SMART” submarine cable systems in the ocean observing system). First workshop was CalTech, October 2014. Report, is on website. • New member added: Katsuyoshi Kawaguchi (JAMSTEC and DONET) Publicity, Outreach and Marketing Committee (Nigel Bayliff and Peter Phibbs, Co-chairs) • Additional content added to website, including publications and presentations. • LinkedIN group was established to increase engagement with industry contacts. • Produced a document that outlines the structure of a recommendation under the ITU-T G.series, covering submarine cable infrastructure. Submitted in December 2015 as a Liaison Statement to Study Group 15 of the Telecommunication Standardization Bureau followed by a formal presentation, February 2016. • Opened an avenue of cooperation with the UN Global Compact, briefing senior delegates of the JTF work and synergy with other UN efforts on Corporate Social Responsibility, particularly regarding Climate and Environmental awareness and protection. Business Model Committee (Michael Costin and John Mariano, Co-Chairs) • JTF Report on Green Cables Funding Study was released via website, January 2016, which examined the potential for development effort and funding of Wet Demonstrator. Most promising potential corporate and foundation funding sources were identified with recommendations about solicitation. • Clear need was identified for Wet Demonstrator involving industry demonstration of the capabilities and product suite that can be reliability applied to a commercial system. Without this Wet Demonstrator, or a supplier performing its own qualification of SMART application, the acceptance of this new technology on any new commercial system will not be likely. • The Business Model for a system owner to implement SMART into their commercial systems would need to identify both funding sources to offset the original CAPEX and data recipients willing to support data management costs. • Efforts have not yet identified new system developers willing to introduce SMART without understanding the full costs and ROI. • Potential commercial SMART projects in South Pacific remain in development; however, other new project proponents vying for funding may be open to SMART concept because of their planned connectivity with South Pacific island communities. Legal Committee (Kent Bressie, Chair) • In 2015, the Legal Committee continued to focus principally on supporting the tasks of the JTF’s other committees. The Chair continues to engage in various public fora with interested parties expressing views and concerns about legal and regulatory issues with the JTF’s work and SMART cables generally. Future trends and opportunities for the submarine cable industry • Technology: Ongoing surge in ICT developments, Internet use, video and financial transactions, plus advances in subsea technology Ever increasing hunger for capacity will soon achieve 1 Terabyte/s per lambda – now only deploying 100Gb/s Submarine Cable Map 2016 Imagine the impact of having sensors every 50-100km along future cables…. TeleGeography JTF Wet Demonstrator design: Funding and some NRE work needed • Minimum of three repeater/sensor sets • Minimum separation 3x water depth • Greater separation preferred, up to 50km Scope of Wet Demonstrator Test Facility or Cabled Ocean Observatory Wet-mate connector Adaptation Device (if required) 50-100m 6-50km LW or LWP Lead-in cable (if required) Sensor Set 6-50km Sensor Set 6-50km Sensor Set End cable and seal Ground rope and anchors Mallin Consultants 2014 Sensor requirements Functional requirements: • Physical – small – qualified for shock – able to pass through cable engines • Maintenance – none • Calibration – no intervention • No foreseeable impact on telecom system through failure of sensor or related equipment Data Rate per sensor location: • Temperature 0.06 kbps • Pressure 1 kbps • Accelerometer 15 kbps – total including overhead ~ 20kbps • Power – ~5W per sensor location total • Time Stamping – 50μsec Data return on supervisory channel • No impact on main fibres Mallin Consultants 2014 Subsea pressure sensors - A key element RBRduo BPR is a submersible depth logger (sonde, recorder) that is self-contained, accurate and autonomous. RBRduo BPR is calibrated to an accuracy of ± 0.01% full scale, and is available to depth ratings up to 7000m; uses Paroscientific Digiquartz depth gauge. Paroscientific Digiquartz® Depth Sensors offer accurate depth measurements to 7000m for use in wave and tide gauges, tsunami detection, seabed subsidence, etc. Typical application accuracy of 0.01% is achieved, with excellent long-term stability, 1 x 10–8 resolution, low power consumption, and high reliability. Over 1000 deployed on DONET, Japan. Proposal for Wet demonstrator Scope of Wet Demonstrator Cabled Ocean Observatory Wet-mate connector Adaptation Device (if required) 50-100m 6-50km LW or LWP Lead-in cable (if required) Sensor Set 6-50km Sensor Set Wet mate hybrid or separate power optical penetrators leading to a jumper set to connect to science observatory 6-50km Sensor Set End cable and seal Ground rope and anchors Dummy repeater housing to allow split out of separate composite power and optics feed to sensor set plus facilitate amplifier interface (ethernet) to transmission fibre Modular sensor set Use of standard repeater with adaption for double penetrator bulkhead, Internal Unit contains only passive optics tap into transmission fibres at O/head wavelength. No active components therefore minimal reliability impact to repeater 5-10m? Independent composite optical /power feed to sensor protected with main transmission cable Utilising proven Branching Unit double hermetic penetration technology it is possible to provide independent composite power and optics to the science module Pressure plus accelerometer sensors packaged with E/O/comms module. Transmission cable uninterrupted without mechanical break out. Temperature sensors mounted in buffer and/or outboard cable protection with protected cabling back to E/O comms module to avoid temperature pick up from module electronics Potential Wet Demonstrator sites U.S. submarine cabled observatory (Regional Scale Nodes) and Canadian observatory (NEPTUNE Canada) Kelley et al. (2014) Locations of installed (green dots) and planned cabled seafloor observatories (red dots) Kelley et al. (2014) Potential case for discussion Recovered repeater cable Island A • Low cost option to build a trial demonstrator • Provide a small point to point system • Test and validate sensor pack and robustness of data communications • Leave a legacy system • Generate revenue for some remote islands Island A Potential to link western Pacific island states with subsea cable systems: Palau Palau, seen from above, risks being overrun as sea levels rise (Wuebbles et al., 2015) LuXTonnerre Even the US Senate supports SMART 114th Congress, 1st Session H. R. 34 Tsunami Warning, and Education, and Research Act of 2015 Passed by Unanimous Consent • House 1/7/2015 • Senate 10/6/2015 amended Tsunami Warning, and Education, and Research Act of 2015 • SEC. 4. TSUNAMI FORECASTING AND WARNING PROGRAM. • (b) COMPONENTS.—The program under this section shall— • (9) provide and allow, as practicable, for integration of tsunami detection technologies with other environmental observing technologies and commercial and Federal undersea communications cables; NASA’s Assessment of SMART “first order addition to the ocean observing system, with unique contributions that will strengthen and complement satellite and in-situ systems.” “the SMART pressure measurements serve as ground truth and de-aliasing for tidal and other high frequencies. SMART pressure data are necessary for ground truth validation of GRACE data, leading to significantly improved precision and global resolution.” Final NASA Workshop Report, 2015 Challenge for the JTF, industry, and research community • Raise awareness, educate and publicize (in part why we are here today) • Search out the funds and potential investors • Foundations, Global Banks, Industry • Need executive commitment • Coordinate and collaborate for a universal solution, but tailored to specific deployments • Educate governments to facilitate permits and funding, and to utilize new environmental data • Link to other global initiatives and international agencies Thank you…. .…any questions? Joint Task Force (JTF) recent publication and website SMART (Science Monitoring And Resilient Telecommunications) Subsea Cable Systems Search: itu jtf www.itu.int/en/ITU-T/climatechange/ task-force-sc/ Contact: greenstandard@itu.int ITU 2015, Butler et al. S&S Committee (free)