INFORMATION HANDLING – THIRD LEVEL Significant Aspect of Learning Research and evaluate data to assess risks and make informed choices Learning Statements Distribution Trends Misleading Data Consequences Experiences & Outcomes MNU 3-20a: I can work collaboratively, making appropriate use of technology, to source information presented in a range of ways, interpret what it conveys and discuss whether I believe the information to be robust, vague or misleading. MTH 3-20b: When analysing information or collecting data of my own, I can use my understanding of how bias may arise and how sample size can affect precision, to ensure that the data allows for fair conclusions to be drawn. MTH 3-21a: I can display data in a clear way using a suitable scale, by choosing appropriately from an extended range of tables, charts, diagrams and graphs, making effective use of technology. MNU 3-22a: I can find the probability of a simple event happening and explain why the consequences of the event, as well as its probability, should be considered when making choices. Learning Intention We are learning how to research and evaluate data to assess risks and make informed choices. Success Criteria draw a range of statistical diagrams, using a suitable scale. choose the best diagram to communicate the results of a survey. describe the terms sampling, reliability and bias. work with others to source and interpret information and explain why I think it is robust, vague or misleading. use my understanding of chance and uncertainty to make informed decisions. select and organise relevant information to create text, using suitable vocabulary. 1 INFORMATION HANDLING INVESTIGATION ASSESSMENT Current recommendations are that everyone should eat at least five portions of a variety of fruit and vegetables each day. The doctors decided to survey the amount of fruit and vegetables eaten each day by people in their area. Jenny and Amir went out into the High Street and questioned people leaving two different shops. They asked, “How many pieces of fruit and vegetables do you eat each day?” Jenny went to one end of the High Street and Amir went to the other end. Here are the results: Jenny 2 10 3 0 2 5 2 3 1 0 5 2 3 1 3 2 0 1 3 2 3 6 1 1 3 5 3 7 3 3 Amir 6 6 10 3 3 8 5 10 4 5 4 5 8 4 5 3 2 7 5 6 5 4 5 6 Display this data using appropriate statistical diagrams and justify your choice of diagram. What differences or similarities do you notice in the two groups of data? Jenny and Amir analysed their data. One of them was standing outside a well-known Health Food Shop whilst the other was standing outside a well-known Burger Chain. Who do you think was standing outside the Health Food Shop? Comment on how their choice of position in the High Street influenced the results. Using the results, what is the probability that someone chosen at random from outside the Health Food Shop eats the recommended five or more pieces of fruit and vegetables per day? 2 Similarly, what is the probability that someone chosen at random from outside the Burger Chain eats the recommended five or more pieces of fruit and vegetables per day? The doctors want to tackle the issue of poor diet amongst their patients. They want to publicise the importance of eating ‘five a day’. On the evidence of the results above, which would be the better place in the High Street to distribute their leaflets and why? The following week, Amir is away on holiday and Jenny has to collect results on her own. Suggest an appropriate position in the High Street to collect results so that they are robust and a more accurate reflection of the eating habits of the local population. Jenny goes out early in the morning to gather results and by 8.30am she has the following data, which is shown below in a pie chart: Number of Fruit and Veg. Portions Eaten per Day 7 or more 0 1 2 3 6 4 5 By lunchtime, she has gathered many more results as the High Street gets busier. Here is a pie chart which represents all of the results gathered that morning: Number of Fruit and Veg. Portions Eaten per Day 7 or more 6 01 2 5 3 4 Which set of results is more representative of the population of the town? Comment on the importance of sample size. 3 EVIDENCE The doctors decided to survey the amount of fruit and vegetables eaten each day by people in their area. Jenny and Amir went out into the High Street and questioned people leaving two different shops. They asked, “How many pieces of fruit and vegetables do you eat each day?” Jenny went to one end of the High Street and Amir went to the other end. Here are the results: Jenny 2 10 3 0 2 5 2 3 1 0 5 2 3 1 3 2 0 1 3 2 3 6 1 1 3 5 3 7 3 3 Amir 6 6 10 3 3 8 5 10 4 5 4 5 8 4 5 3 2 7 5 6 5 4 5 6 Display this data using appropriate statistical diagrams. Learner Conversation: “I created this pie chart on software. It was good in one way because the biggest portion showed the most common number of fruit and veg that was eaten. However, I also thought it was a bit complicated. I did not like that it was so difficult to tell what each sector was, using the key.” “The learner used Excel to create his chart”. 4 Learner Conversation: “I drew a pie chart to display the data. As I was making it, I realised that I had no way of showing clearly that no people asked in Jenny’s survey ate 4, 8 or 9 pieces of fruit and vegetables per day. I also realised that there was no easy way to see how many people responded for each portion number. Even if you measured the pie chart angle, you don’t know what the pie chart is out of. I thought that bar charts might be clearer.” Teacher Reflection: “This shows the need for our learner to show more mature thinking and appreciate that the exact number of people responding for each category in the context of this survey is less important than the proportions of the total data group responding for each category.” 5 Learner Conversation: “I decided to create bar graphs using Excel because it was a simple and clear way to display the data. It also made it really easy to compare the two sets of results.” Teacher Reflection: “The learner used pie charts initially as they have the advantage of showing proportions. The next step was to expose the learner to two groups of data of different sizes so that comparisons could be made.” 6 What differences or similarities do you notice in the two groups of data? Jenny and Amir analysed their data. One of them was standing outside a well-known Health Food Shop whilst the other was standing outside a well-known Burger Chain. Who do you think was standing outside the Health Food Shop? Comment on how their choice of position in the High Street influenced the results. 7 Using the results, what is the probability that someone chosen at random from outside the Health Food Shop eats the recommended five or more pieces of fruit and vegetables per day? Similarly, what is the probability that someone chosen at random from outside the Burger Chain eats the recommended five or more pieces of fruit and vegetables per day? Teacher Reflection: “We did not ask our learner in the task to compare these two probabilities. However, in the way the task was set up, it was difficult for him to avoid making comparisons. This led to a wider discussion about how we could make that comparison easier.” The doctors want to tackle the issue of poor diet amongst their patients. They want to publicise the importance of eating ‘five a day’. On the evidence of the results above, which would be the better place in the High Street to distribute their leaflets and why? The following week, Amir is away on holiday and Jenny has to collect results on her own. Suggest an appropriate position in the High Street to collect results so that they are robust and a more accurate reflection of the eating habits of the local population. 8 Jenny goes out early in the morning to gather results and by 8.30am she has the following data, which is shown below in a pie chart: Number of Fruit and Veg. Portions Eaten per Day 7 or more 0 1 2 3 6 4 5 By lunchtime, she has gathered many more results as the High Street gets busier. Here is a pie chart which represents all of the results gathered that morning: Number of Fruit and Veg. Portions Eaten per Day 7 or more 6 01 2 5 3 4 Which set of results is more representative of the population of the town? Comment on the importance of sample size. “The learner was then asked to investigate statistics in the media, comparing the effects of different amounts of fruit and vegetables and types eaten on mortality rates. The learner was asked to read a number of selected newspaper articles on the Internet and answer the following questions. For your information, these articles have been summarised and diagrams reproduced.” 9 SUMMARY OF ARTICLE A study, using the Health Survey for England, finds new evidence linking fruit and vegetable consumption with lower mortality: Compared to eating less than one portion of fruit and vegetables, the risk of death by any cause is reduced by 14% by eating one to three portions of fruit and vegetables, 29% for three to five portions, 36% for five to seven portions and 42% for seven or more. These figures excluded deaths within a year of the Health Survey and were also adjusted to take account of gender, age, smoking habits, social class, Body Mass Index, education, physical activity and alcohol intake. Write a short summary (no more than 50 words) about the subject of the research. Do you think that the data is robust? Why? 10 The researchers adjusted their data to take account of the following factors which could otherwise have influenced the results: Education Smoking habits Age Gender Social class Body Mass Index Alcohol intake. Pick two factors and describe how these bias the results by affecting mortality. Can you think of any other issues which may make the data unreliable? 11 SUMMARY OF ARTICLE This bar chart shows mortality rates by the amount of fruit and vegetables eaten: You can reduce your risk of early death by increasing the number of fruit and veg. portions that 14% you eat. 1 to 3 a day 29% 3 to 5 a day 36% 42% 5 to 7 a day 7 or more a day Highlight at least two issues which make the diagram confusing, vague or misleading. 12 Describe how to change the graph to fix these issues. Teacher Reflection: “The learner recalled very successfully the key requirements for a grouped data bar chart. Discussion ensued about improvements, particularly the fact that there was overlap between the categories.” 13 SUMMARY OF ARTICLE Healthy diet means more than seven portions of fruit and veg per day, not five: How different food portions increase or decrease the risk of premature death. Based on 1 a day – 8% Mixed Veg. – 9% Dried Fruit – 7% Mixed Fruit – 5% –13% Pulses Salad – 4% Fresh Fruit – 3% Fruit Juice +17% Frozen/Cann ed Fruit –16% Vegetables Risk of Death Percentage 42% 36% Decrease 29% 0% 14% 0-1 1-3 3-5 57 7+ Portions of Fruit and Veg per Day It was found that those people with the highest intakes of fruit and vegetables were also 25% less likely to die from cancer and 31% less likely to die from heart disease. Deaths by any cause, within a year of the study, were excluded. It was reported that if these people were included in the study, the risk of death is reduced by 33% for eating at least seven portions of fruit and vegetables each day. 14 How does eating frozen or tinned fruit affect mortality rates? Learner Conversation: “Tinned and frozen fruit is a positive percentage decrease. That’s a bit complicated but it means that it has an overall negative effect on life expectancy.” How do the experts explain this finding? How would you change the research methods in order to make the results less misleading? 15 Summarise the overall benefits of eating 7 or more portions fruit and vegetables a day. Many newspapers reported statistics which omitted the first year of the study. Summarise how the omitted data biases the results. “The learner had to grasp the concept of a percentage reduction in mortality and identify that a 42% reduction was better than a 33% reduction.” 16