CITIZENS ALWAYS RESPOND TO
REPRESSION:
REPRESSION TYPES AND THEIR
CONSEQUENCES FOR NON6
VIOLENT AND VIOLENT CIVIL
CONFLICT
Dr.!M.!Rodwan!Abouharb!
m.abouharb@ucl.ac.uk!
!
Dr.!Susan!Ariel!Aaronson!
saaronso@gwu.edu!
and!!
Dr.!Natalie!Susan!Gaines!
This!material!is!based!upon!work!generously!supported!by,!or!in!part!by,!the!U.S.!Army!
Research!Laboratory!and!the!U.!S.!Army!Research!Office!under!grant!number!W911NFI
14I1I0485.!
!
1!
Abstract(
!
Herein! we! examine! how! citizens! respond! when! confronted! with! political! repression,!
violent!repression,!or!a!mix!of!repressive!tactics!by!governments.!We!also!examine!the!
likelihood!and!frequency!of!violent!and!nonviolent!responses!by!citizens!to!government!
repression.!We!utilized!a!dataset!of!all!independent!states!from!1981I2011!to!examine!
this! relationship.! Our! metrics! of! repression! come! from! the! Cingranelli! and! Richards!
(2014)! human! rights! data! set! and! our! measures! of! protest! and! civil! war! come! from!
Banks! and! Wilson! (2015)! and! Gleditsch! et! al.! (2014).! We! utilize! metrics! that! reflect!
annual! changes! in! repression! rather! than! metrics! that! reflect! annual! levels! of!
repression.! We! used! quantitative! metrics! of! violations! of! civil! and! political! rights! to!
operationalize! political! repression,! along! with! measures! of! physical! integrity! rights! in!
order!to!operationalize!violent!repression.!!
!
As!other!scholars!have!asserted,!we!find!citizens!initially!are!scared,!but!then!respond!to!
political! repression! with! nonviolent! protest! such! as! strikes! and! demonstrations.!
However,!we!also!find!that!as!governments!intensify!the!degree!of!political!repression,!
citizens! respond! with! violent! actions! such! as! coups! and! civil! wars.! Hence,! political!
repression! can! lead! to! violent! responses! as! citizens! become! increasingly! frustrated.!!
!
Secondly,!we!find!that!when!governments!use!violent!repression,!citizens!also!respond!
in! a! variety! of! ways.! Citizens! gradually! transcend! their! fears! of! risk! as! they! become!
increasingly! aggrieved! and! respond! with! both! nonviolent! actions! such! as! strikes! and!
antiIgovernment!demonstrations!as!well!as!violent!actions!such!as!coups!and!civil!wars.!
As! repressive! leaders! intensify! violent! repression,! citizens! again! respond! to! violence!
with! both! violent! and! nonviolent! actions.! Finally,! we! found! that! when! governments!
utilize!both!violent!and!political!repression,!citizens!also!rely!on!violent!and!nonviolent!
protest.! As! repressive! leaders! intensify! their! use! of! both! forms! of! repression,! citizens!
again!respond!in!kind.!!
!!
Our!findings!support!scholarship!that!suggests!that!leaders!who!use!political,!violent!or!
a!mix!of!repressive!tactics!will!be!met!by!violent!protests!from!their!citizens.!Repression!
begets!violence.!However,!the!likelihood!and!type!of!violence!utilized!by!citizens!will!
vary!based!on!the!type!and!intensity!of!repression!used!by!repressive!leaders.!
Repression!begets!nonviolence,!as!well.!Thus,!while!our!analysis!had!some!common!
ground!with!some!of!these!theories,!our!findings!did!not!fully!support!any!of!the!widely!
respected!theories!about!the!repression/civil!conflict!relationship.!!
!
We! note! that! our! findings,! if! replicated,! could! have! important! implications! for! leaders!
who! use! repression! and! well! as! for! policymakers! who! seek! to! reduce! the! use! of!
repression.! Repressive! leaders! may! have! many! justifications! for! using! repression,! but!
they! should! be! aware! of! the! costs.! If! these! leaders! value! stability,! they! should! not! use!
repression.! Moreover,! violent! repression! does! not! lead! to! citizen! acquiescence! and!
stability.! Meanwhile,! Western! policymakers! who! want! to! reduce! the! use! of! repression!
do! not! need! to! rely! on! normative! arguments.! Instead,! they! can! demonstrate! that!
repression!is!not!in!the!best!interest!of!leaders!who!seek!to!maintain!stability.!!
!
!
!
2!
1.(Introduction!
!
Burundi,! a! small,! poor! African! nation,! provides! a! good! case! study! for! the!
complexities! of! the! repression/civil! conflict! relationship.! Since! it! achieved!
independence! in! 1962,! it! has! been! plagued! by! tension! between! the! dominant! Tutsi!
minority!and!the!Hutu!majority.!The!two!tribes!fought!a!brutal!civil!war,!but!in!2005,!the!
nation! elected! Pierre! Nkurunziza,! a! Hutu,! as! its! president.! However,! the! President!
became! increasingly! repressive.! As! violence! among! ethnic! groups! surged,! the!
government! began! to! use! violent! tactics! to! frighten! its! people! into! acquiescence.! In!
2015,!amid!reports!of!judges!being!intimidated,!the!country’s!Constitutional!Court!ruled!
in!favor!of!President!Nkurunziza's!decision!to!stand!for!a!third!term.!Protestors!took!to!
the!streets!to!protect!both!their!fragile!democracy!and!to!protest!the!decision.!Tens!of!
thousands! fled! the! country! in! the! wake! of! violence.! An! army! officer! instigated! a! coup,!
but! the! President! was! able! to! maintain! control.! In! July! 2015,! President! Nkurunziza!
announced!that!he!had!won!the!election!with!70%!of!the!vote,!while!opposition!leader!
Agathon!Rwasa!described!the!polls!as!a!"joke".1!
We! believe! that! the! situation! confronting! the! Burundian! people! is! no! laughing!
matter,!however.!Burundi!provides!a!good!example!of!why!scholars!and!policymakers,!
including! repressive! leaders,! need! to! better! understand! the! repression/civil! conflict!
relationship.!President!Nkurunziza!may!not!be!able!to!maintain!stability!and!ultimately!
power!if!he!continues!to!use!repression.!
In!this!article,!we!examine!how!citizens!respond!to!different!types!of!government!
repression.! We! use! human! rights! metrics! to! describe! the! two! very! different! types! of!
repression:! political! repression! and! violent! repression.! Governments! that! utilize!
political!repression!may!restrict!the!ability!of!their!citizens!to!move!domestically,!leave!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BBC news, “Burundi Profile, Timeline,” 7/30/2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13087604 and BBC
News, “Burundi Country Profile,” www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13085064, last search 8/1/2015.
1
!
3!
the! country,! speak! their! mind,! assemble,! associate! freely,! organize,! and! collectively!
bargain!(workers’!rights)!–!as!well!limit!as!their!ability!to!freely!practice!their!religion.!
In!short,!they!violate!the!political!and!civil!rights!of!their!citizens.!Governments!that!rely!
on!violent!repression!may!rely!on!torture,!political!imprisonment,!extra!judicial!killing,!
and!forced!disappearance!to!repress!their!citizens.!In!short,!these!states!take!steps!that!
violate!the!physical!integrity!rights!of!their!citizens.!!
To!better!understand!how!citizens!respond!when!leaders!rely!on!repression,!we!
utilize! an! analysis! of! 194! independent! nation! states,! with! a! population! of! at! least!
500,000! that! covers! the! entire! period! from! 1981! to! 2011! using! the! Correlates! of! War!
(2011)! framework.! We! show! that! when! governments! use! political! repression,! citizens!
initially!are!scared!and!do!not!take!to!the!streets.!Yet!as!governments!intensify!political!
repression!(which!we!define!as!more!civil!and!political!rights!violations!affecting!more!
people)! citizens! respond! with! violent! actions! such! as! coups! and! civil! wars.! In!
comparison,!when!governments!use!violent!forms!of!repression,!citizens!often!respond!
by! initially! striking! and! demonstrating! less.! As! governments! worsen! their! violence,!
however,! citizens! respond! by! striking! and! protesting! more.! As! governments! intensify!
violent! repression! (which! we! define! as! more! violations! of! physical! integrity! rights!
affecting! more! people)! citizens! respond! with! both! nonviolent! actions! and! violent!
actions!such!as!coups!and!civil!war.!When!governments!utilize!both!political!and!violent!
means!of!repression,!citizens!will!also!respond!in!kind!with!both!violent!and!nonviolent!
protest.!!
Herein,!we!define!state!repression!as!the!use!of!coercive!power!that!undermines!
the! rights! of! individuals! within! their! territorial! jurisdiction! (Goldstein:! 1978).! Rulers!
use! repression! to! deter! specific! activities! or! beliefs! perceived! to! be! challenging! to!
government!personnel,!practices,!and!institutions.!These!rulers!believe!that!they!must!
!
4!
respond! to! behavior! that! threatens! the! status! quo,! which! may! include! the! political!
system,! government! personnel,! the! economy,! or! the! lives,! beliefs,! and! livelihoods! of!
those!within!their!territorial!jurisdiction!(Davenport:!2007,!7).!Hence,!they!often!turn!to!
repressive! tactics! which! include! restrictions! on! free! speech,! media! attacks! or! closure,!
book!banning,!outlawing!of!political!organizations,!mass!arrests,!and!even!genocide!and!
torture!(Davenport:!2007).!!
State! repression! plays! out! differently! in! different! countries,! reflecting! diverse!
historical,!cultural,!technological,!and!economic!circumstances!within!nations.!In!some!
countries,! citizens! may! use! peaceful! protest! to! respond! to! repressive! tactics.! In! other!
states,!citizens!may!use!violence.!Citizens!may!gradually!move!from!peaceful!strategies!
to!more!violent!tactics,!as!in!Egypt!and!Ukraine.!In!some!countries!such!as!Thailand!or!
Mali,!repression!can!continue!over!decades.!!In!other!countries,!the!repression/citizen!
protest!relationship!has!led!to!civil!war,!as!in!Syria!or!Sri!Lanka.!!
Despite! years! of! study,! scholars! don’t! know! how! citizens! respond! to! different!
types! of! human! rights! violations! by! their! governments! because! no! one! has! done! a!
systematic!analysis.!We!examine!what!we!label!as!‘nonIviolent!protest’!against!the!state,!
when!citizens!use!strikes!and!antiIgovernment!demonstrations.!We!also!examine!what!
we! label! as! ‘violent! protest’! against! the! state! when! citizens! may! use! assassinations,!
coups,!and!civil!wars.!!
We! make! three! contributions! to! the! literature.! First,! we! provide! a! novel!
theoretical! contribution! regarding! the! repression/civil! conflict! relationship.! We! found!
that! governments! that! use! political,! violent! or! a! mix! of! repressive! tactics! will!
subsequently!be!confronted!by!violent!protest.!We!find!that!the!likelihood!and!severity!
of! the! citizen! response! depends! on! the! type! and! mix! of! repressive! tactics! of! the! state.!
Contrary!to!our!expectations,!we!find!that!in!almost!all!instances,!political,!violent,!and!a!
!
5!
mix!of!repression!often!results!in!both!violent!and!nonIviolent!responses!from!citizens.!
Hence! if! repressive! leaders! aim! to! achieve! political! stability,! their! use! of! repression! is!
counterproductive.!Secondly,!we!provide!a!novel!empirical!test!that!maps!the!behavior!
of!governments!more!closely!than!previous!work.!We!view!the!repression/civil!conflict!
relationship!as!a!feedback!mechanism.!In!contrast!with!other!scholars!who!have!proxied!
repressive!policy!choices!by!governments!through!variation!in!regime!type,!we!directly!
examine!government!human!rights!violations!over!time!and!across!states.!In!addition,!
we! examine! a! broader! array! of! citizen! responses! to! different! types! of! repression! in!
comparison! to! previous! research.! Finally,! we! provide! the! first! global! quantitative!
analysis!for!the!period!between!1981!and!2011.!!
The!article!is!organized!as!follows.!We!begin!with!a!case!study!of!Burundi,!which!
we! use! to! portray! the! repression/civil! conflict! relationship.! We! also! define! repression!
and! delineate! the! various! types! of! civil! conflict.! We! next! discuss! the! literature! on!
repression!and!its!consequences!for!antiIgovernment!protest!and!violence.!In!the!third!
section,!we!put!forward!our!theoretical!arguments!and!hypotheses.!In!section!four,!we!
present! our! research! design! and! in! section! five! we! present! our! results.! Finally,! we!
delineate!our!conclusions!and!suggestions!for!policymakers.!!
2.(Literature(Review!
!
!
Researchers! have! long! debated! when,! whether,! and! how! state! repression! will!
influence!civil!conflict.!In!general,!scholars!have!focused!on!two!main!theories,!groups,!
which! we! label! opportunityIbased! and! grievanceIbased.! We! have! learned! a! lot! from!
these!scholars,!but!we!have!concluded!that!neither!theoretical!approach!provides!a!full!
explanation!of!how!citizens!respond!to!varied!types!of!repression.!!
!
6!
a.(Opportunity(Approaches(to(Repression(&(Conflict((
!
Scholars!examining!repression!and!conflict!from!an!opportunity!approach!argue!
that!citizens!will!be!more!likely!to!organize!and!protest!against!the!state!when!citizens!
believe! the! benefits! of! organizing! outweigh! the! costs! (Collier! and! Hoeffler:! 2004;!
Lichbach:!1987;!Mason:!2004).!These!scholars!argue!that!governments!are!more!likely!
to! utilize! repression! when! they! feel! threatened! (Davenport:! 1995,! 2007;! Krain:! 1997;!
Poe:! 2004)! or! when! they! aim! to! maintain! political! control! (Bueno! de! Mesquita! et! al:!
2003).!These!scholars!argue!that!governments!will!want!to!lower!the!potential!benefits!
of!protests!and!increase!the!potential!costs!of!protest.!!Hence!governments!that!have!the!
will!and!the!ability!to!repress!will!use!repressive!means!to!maintain!control!(Collier!and!
Hoeffler:!2004;!Fearon!and!Laitin:!2003;!Henderson!and!Singer:!2000).!!
Many! of! these! scholars! have! utilized! various! proxies! to! describe! government!
behavior! such! as! wealth! (Collier! and! Hoeffler:! 2004;! Fearon! and! Laitin:! 2003)! or!
institutional! proxies! like! anocracy! (Henderson! and! Singer:! 2000).! Other! researchers!
have!examined!the!strategic!responses!of!opposition!groups!to!using!particular!types!of!
nonIviolent! and! violent! behavior! (Lichbach:! 1987;! Moore:! 1998;! Pierskalla:! 2010).!
However,!researchers!have!yet!to!pinpoint!if!there!is!a!tipping!point!in!when!high!levels!
of! political! or! violent! repression! yields! either! a! more! or! less! violent! citizen! response!
(Gurr:! 1970).! To! put! it! differently,! we! do! not! know! when! various! types! of! repression!
will!yield!various!types!of!responses.!!
!
OpportunityIbased! theorists! have! made! an! important! contribution! to! our!
understanding! of! the! repression/civil! conflict! relationship.! However,! these! scholars!
were! unable! to! examine! different! types! of! repression! without! using! proxies! such! as!
level!of!democracy.!Hence,!they!could!not!completely!model!the!civil!conflict!repression!
relationship.!
!
7!
b.(Grievance(Based(Approaches(to(Repression(&(Conflict((
!
While! opportunity! cost! theorists! examine! what! governments! are! doing,! other!
scholars! focus! on! how! citizens! respond! to! government! repression.! These! scholars!
suggest! that! government! repression! generates! grievances,! increasing! the! level! of!
protest! “relative! deprivation! arguments”! (Gurr:! 1970).! Relative! deprivation! is!
theoretically! defined! by! two! conditions:! wanting! what! one! does! not! have! and! feeling!
that!one!deserves!whatever!it!is!that!one!wants!but!does!not!have!(Crosby:!1982).!When!
individuals!feel!deprived,!they!may!respond!violently,!and!individuals!are!likely!to!feel!
deprived!when!they!experience!repression!(Davies:!1969;!Feierabend!and!Feierabend:!
1966;! Gurr:! 1970).! If! the! logic! of! this! argument! is! correct,! then! higher! levels! of!
repression! will! lead! to! more! antiIgovernment! protest! and! violence.! Only! at! very! high!
levels! of! repression! does! the! capacity! of! the! state! to! inflict! damage! on! its! opponents!
overwhelm!the!opposition’s!ability!to!engage!in!antiIgovernment!protest!and!violence.!!
Hence,! scholars! have! found! a! nonIlinear! relationship! between! government! repression!
and!opposition!protest!and!violence!(Gartner!and!Regan:!1996).!!
Some! academics! have! utilized! a! grievanceIbased! approach! to! examine! the! link!
between! government! repression! of! citizens’! rights! and! the! likelihood! of! antiI
government! protest! and! violence! (e.g.! Hibbs:! 1973;! Muller! and! Opp:! 1986;! Regan! and!
Norton:! 2005;! Rasler:! 1996).! So! far,! however,! scholars! working! on! this! theory! have!
examined! only! a! small! number! of! countries,! making! this! theory! harder! to! generalize!
across! countries! (e.g.! Muller! and! Opp:! 1986;! Rasler:! 1996).! Some! grievanceIbased!
scholars! have! made! pathIbreaking! contributions! because! they! differentiated! between!
particular!types!of!civil!conflict!(Carey:!2010;!Mason:!2004;!Regan!and!Norton:!2005).!
However,!these!scholars!have! either!failed!to!unpack!political!or!violent!repression!or!
they!didn’t!examine!the!broad!range!of!citizen!responses!to!repression.!!
!
8!
c.(Regime(Type(Approaches(to(Repression(and(Conflict(
!
A!third!group!of!researchers!argue!that!the!type!of!regime!using!repression!will!
have!significant!effects!upon!the!type!of!protests!citizens!utilize!to!respond.!They!posit!
that! these! institutional! variations! contribute! to! different! levels! of! repression! across!
states! and! over! time.! They! note! that! authoritarian! regimes! may! have! high! levels! of!
repression! and! in! doing! so! reduce! citizens’! opportunities! for! protest! (Regan! and!
Henderson:!2002).!Democracies,!in!contrast,!provide!many!opportunities!for!citizens!to!
express!their!opinions.!!Citizens!can!take!to!the!streets,!the!Internet,!or!the!ballot!box.!
Thus,!these!researchers!argue!that!political!leaders!in!democracies!are!less!threatened!
by!protest!and!hence!have!less!need!to!utilize!repression!(Davenport:!2007;!Davenport!
and!Armstrong:!2004).!!
Other! scholars! find! that! the! relationship! between! democracy! and! repression! is!
not! so! simple.! Some! scholars! have! found! that! mixed! or! anocratic! regimes! tend! to! use!
more! repression! and! experience! more! violence! than! either! democracies! or!
authoritarian! regimes! (Regan! and! Henderson:! 2002).! Some! scholars! have! labeled! this!
phenomenon! the! ‘murder! in! the! middle’! thesis! (e.g.! Fein:! 1995;! Muller! and! Weede:!
1990).!They!assert!that!these!regimes!are!the!most!prone!to!conflict.!These!scholars!also!
argue! that! anocracies! are! in! the! middle! because! they! are! mixed! regimes! and! instigate!
more! murders! because! the! leaders! are! torn.! On! one! hand,! these! leaders! will! not! let!
citizens!freely!change!their!own!governments.!!Yet!on!the!other!hand,!these!leaders!are!
not! willing! to! utilize! overwhelming! force! against! their! citizens! to! prevent! protests.!
Hence,! they! use! enough! repression! to! generate! grievances,! but! they! don’t! employ!
enough!violent!repression!to!stop!opposition!protests!and!violence.!!
However,!some!scholars!find!the!murder!in!the!middle!thesis!problematic.!They!
note! that! some! democratic! states! use! more! repression,! while! mixed! and! authoritarian!
!
9!
regimes! use! less! repression! than! existing! theories! suggest! (Sobek,! Abouharb,! and!
Ingram:! 2006).! These! researchers! rely! on! data! sets! which! cover! more! countries! and!
which!model!rather!than!proxy!government!practices.!!As!example,!these!critics!of!the!
murder!in!the!middle!thesis!note!that!the!United!Kingdom!utilized!violent!repression!in!
Northern! Ireland,! while! Spain! employed! violent! repression! against! the! Basque!
separatists.! In! addition,! they! point! out! that! authoritarian! regimes! such! as! the! United!
Arab!Emirates!used!less!violent!forms!of!repression!against!their!own!people!than!some!
democracies.! Hence,! they! are! uncomfortable! with! theories! that! use! regime! type! to!
delineate! repression! levels! (Sobek,! Abouharb,! and! Ingram:! 2006).! We! take! from! this!
work!that!scholars!should!not!presume!that!all!democratic!states!do!not!use!violent!or!
political!repression!or!that!authoritarian!states!are!more!repressive!then!democracies.!!
In! developing! our! approach,! we! learned! from! and! built! on! the! opportunity,!
grievance,!and!regime!type!models!of!analysis.!First,!we!find!the!grievance!theory!more!
compelling,! but! we! note! that! their! modeling! of! government! repressive! behavior! is!
inexact! and! incomplete.! Hence,! we! will! use! metrics! of! behavior! rather! than! proxies! to!
examine!government!practices.!We!also!see!merit!in!the!opportunity!cost!theory,!but!it!
does! not! fully! describe! violent! government! repression! or! the! feedback! mechanism!
between!repressive!governments!and!citizens.!Thus,!we!examine!this!relationship!as!a!
feedback!mechanism,!where!government!behavior!leads!to!citizen!responses!and!where!
citizen! responses! lead! repressive! leaders! to! make! policy! choices! about! the! type! of!
repression!to!use!in!response!to!citizens’!use!of!violent!or!nonviolent!protest.!However,!
in!this!paper!we!focus!only!on!citizen!response!to!government!use!of!repression.!!
3.(Theoretical(Argument(
!
!
10!
!
We!designed!our!research!strategy!to!accomplish!two!goals:!first!to!delineate!the!
specific!response!of!citizens!to!various!types!of!government!repression!and!secondly!to!
see! whether! our! analysis,! which! focuses! on! both! government! behavior! and! citizen!
response,!supports!either!or!both!of!the!two!main!theories!presented!above.!!
a.(How(We(Developed(Our(Hypotheses(
!
If! scholars! whom! advance! the! grievanceIbased! model! are! correct,! then! we!
should! see! a! nonIlinear! relationship! between! state! repression! of! citizens’! rights! and!
civil! conflict.! They! argue! that! at! low! levels! of! repression,! which! they! define! as! both!
political! and! violent! repression,! there! is! little! need! for! citizens! to! protest.! Similarly,! at!
extremely! high! levels! of! repression,! which! they! define! as! high! levels! of! political! and!
violent! repression,! citizens! decide! that! resistance! in! the! form! of! civil! conflict! is! futile.!
However,!at!moderate!levels!of!repression,!citizens!are!most!likely!to!respond!with!both!
nonviolent! and! violent! protest.! We! map! this! relationship! as! a! nonIlinear,! inverted! “uI
shaped”! relationship.! Further,! grievanceIbased! approaches! may! provide! a! better!
explanatory!framework!to!understand!the!linkage!between!governments’!use!of!violent!
repression!and!the!violent!response!of!opposition!groups.!We!expect!that!citizens!will!
respond!to!nonIviolent!political!repression!with!nonIviolent!protest.!In!comparison,!we!
expect! that! citizens! will! respond! to! violent! repression! with! violent! protest.! Our!
argument! builds! upon! Moore’s! (1998,! 2000)! work,! which! finds! that! citizens! are! more!
likely!to!respond!with!peaceful!protest!to!political!repression!and!with!violent!protest!in!
response!to!violent!repression.!When!governments!use!political!and!violent!repression,!
citizens! will! be! cowed! into! acquiescence! and! the! frequency! of! both! nonIviolent! and!
violent! protest! will! become! less! frequent.! Our! hypotheses! attempt! to! clarify! the! exact!
nature!of!this!nonIlinear!relationship!between!repression!and!protests.!This!discussion!
leads!to!our!first!two!grievanceIbased!hypotheses:!!
!
11!
H1a)! As! political! repression! increases,! the! likelihood! and! frequency! of! nonIviolent!
protest! will! increase! and! then! dramatically! decrease! (an! inverted! ‘u’! shaped!
relationship).! Higher! levels! of! political! repression! will! have! no! significant! effect! on!
violent!protest.!(GrievanceIbased!hypothesis)!
!
H1b)! As! violent! repression! increases,! the! likelihood! and! frequency! of! violent! protest!
will! go! up! and! then! dramatically! decline! (an! inverted! ‘u’! shaped! relationship).! Higher!
levels! of! violent! repression! will! have! no! significant! effect! on! nonIviolent! protest.!
(GrievanceIbased!hypothesis)!
!
In!comparison,!scholars!approaching!this!topic!from!an!opportunity!perspective!
assert! that! if! rulers! use! violent! repression,! they! increase! the! costs! of! civil! conflict! for!
citizens.!Hence,!citizens!will!be!less!likely!to!engage!in!nonIviolent!protest,!protest!less!
frequently,! and! be! less! likely! to! participate! in! violent! protest.! This! discussion! leads! to!
our!opportunityIbased!hypothesis:!
H1c)!Political!repression!decreases!the!likelihood!and!frequency!of!nonIviolent!protest,!
but!not!of!violent!protest.!(OpportunityIbased!hypothesis)!
!
We!next!evaluate!what!happens!when!governments!use!a!combination!of!violent!
and! political! repression.! Scholars! taking! a! grievanceIbased! approach! expect! that!
citizens!will!respond!to!governments!utilizing!more!political!and!violent!repression!in!
kind! –! by! frequently! protesting! both! peacefully! and! violently.! As! before,! grievanceI
based! scholars! expect! that! at! some! point! citizens! will! be! overwhelmed! by! the! level! of!
government!repression!and!be!cowed!into!staying!at!home,!resulting!in!fewer!instance!
of! nonIviolent! and! violent! antiIgovernment! protest.! We! map! this! as! a! nonIlinear,!
inverted! “uIshaped”! relationship! between! repression! and! civil! conflict.! In! comparison,!
opportunityIbased! scholars! expect! that! citizens! will! respond! to! government! utilizing!
both!political!and!violent!repression!by!staying!home.!These!citizens!fear!it!is!too!risky!
to! protest! the! state’s! behavior! resulting! in! less! frequent! nonIviolent! and! violent! antiI
government!protest.!This!discussion!leads!to!our!final!set!of!hypotheses:!
!
12!
H1d)!As!political!and!violent!repression!increases,!the!likelihood!and!frequency!of!nonI
violent!and!violent!protest!will!increase!and!then!dramatically!decline!(an!inverted!‘u’!
shaped!relationship).!(GrievanceIbased!hypothesis)!
!
H1e)! Political! and! violent! repression! decreases! the! likelihood! and! frequency! of! nonI
violent!and!violent!protest.!(OpportunityIbased!hypothesis)!
(
b.(How(We(Developed(Our(Controls(
((
We! used! existing! research! to! delineate! our! control! variables.! First,! we! built! on!
studies! that! demonstrated! that! wealthier! countries,! more! democratic! countries,! and!
those!with!longer!periods!since!any!previous!conflicts!tend!to!have!fewer!human!rights!
violations! (Abouharb! and! Cingranelli:! 2007)! and! less! violent! conflict! within! the! state!
(Regan!and!Norton:!2005).!We!have!also!built!on!studies!that!assert!that!governments!
that! exclude! groups! from! political! power! increase! the! likelihood! of! civil! wars!
(Cederman! et! al:! 2013).! In! addition,! we! also! learned! from! studies! that! examined! the!
population/civil! conflict! relationship.! Some! scholars! have! found! that! more! populous!
states! provide! more! opportunities! for! groups! to! organize,! increasing! the! likelihood! of!
both!nonIviolent!and!violent!antiIgovernment!protest!(Henderson:!1993;!Cederman!et!
al:! 2013).! We! built! on! the! research! that! examines! resource! wealth! and! civil! conflict.!
Some!scholars!have!found!that!states!with!abundant!natural!resources!face!higher!levels!
of! unrest! due! to! opportunistic! behavior! by! groups! seeking! to! garner! that! income! for!
themselves! –! the! resource! curse! literature! (Collier! and! Hoeffler:! 2004).! Other!
researchers,! however,! argue! that! states! rich! in! resources! use! these! rents! to! maintain!
control!(Fearon!and!Laitin:!2003;!Fearon:!2005;!Regan!and!Norton:!2005;!Cederman!et!
al:! 2013).! These! scholars! essentially! assert! that! resourceIrich! countries! can! “buy! out”!
their! opponents! or! keep! them! quiescent! by! subsidizing! key! costs! such! as! education,!
food,!and!housing.!!
!
13!
Finally! we! include! a! measure! of! regime! type! in! our! analysis! because! previous!
research! finds! that! variations! in! regime! type! are! strong! predictors! of! conflict! within!
states,!especially!civil!wars!(Hegre!et!al:!2001;!Fearon!and!Laitin:!2003).!Our!approach!
built!on!the!work!of!James!Vreeland!(2008,!404I405)!who!used!a!refined!POLITY!index!
to!measure!regime!type.!The!POLITY!index!was!designed!to!monitor!and!assess!regimes!
over! the! period! 1800I2013.! His! refined! POLITY! index! isolates! institutional! variations!
from!other!components!of!the!POLITY!score!that!include!violence.!Vreeland’s!approach!
helps!to!make!sure!the!political!violence!components!of!the!POLITY!score!are!not!being!
used!to!explain!political!violence.!He!isolates!the!institutional!variations!that!change!the!
degree! of! accountability! in! the! polity! while! excising! any! components! of! the! index! that!
include! political! violence.! His! ‘POLITY! X’! measure! includes! constraints! on! the! chief!
executive,!the!competitiveness!of!executive!recruitments,!and!the!openness!of!executive!
recruitment.!We!use!his!approach!in!our!research!design!to!control!for!these!important!
institutional! variations! across! states! and! over! time.! ! Next! we! turn! to! our! research!
design.!!
(
4.(Research(Design!
We! use! a! crossInational,! annual! timeIseries! dataset! utilizing! the! Correlates! of!
War!(2011)!framework!of!all!countries,!with!a!population!of!at!least!500,000!in!1981!for!
the!period!1981I2011,!as!that!is!the!period!covered!by!the!CIRI!Human!Rights!Dataset!
(Cingranelli!and!Richards!2014).!Our!models!take!the!following!functional!form:!
!" = $ %&" '& + $ )" !
Here!!" !is!the!dependent!variable!for!the!*th!observation,!representing!different!
types!of!nonIviolent!and!violent!antiIgovernment!action!depending!upon!the!model.!Our!
two! measures! of! nonIviolent! antiIgovernment! action! are! general! strikes! and! antiI
!
14!
government! demonstrations,! both! of! which! come! from! the! Banks! and! Wilson! (2015)!
dataset!and!described!below.!We!characterize!citizen!responses!using!five!measures!of!
violent! antiIgovernment! action.! With! these! measures! we! can! identify! the! intensity! of!
citizen!response!to!government!repression.!Two!of!them!assassinations!and!coups!come!
from! the! Banks! and! Wilson! (2015)! dataset! and! described! below.! Our! civil! war!
measures,! which! constitute! the! third,! fourth! and! fifth! measures! of! violent! antiI
government!behavior!all!come!from!Themnér!and!Wallensteen!(2014)!and!Gleditsch!et!
al.! (2002)! dataset.! We! excluded! the! measure! of! riots! from! the! analysis! (Banks! and!
Wilson:! 2015)! because! it! was! explicitly! coded! to! show! that! such! actions! were! truly!
aimed!at!the!government.!%&" !represents!our!independent!variables!(violent!repression,!
political! repression)! and! our! control! variables! (number! of! groups! excluded! from!
political!power,!log!of!GDP!per!capita!US!dollars,!total!natural!resources!rents,!level!of!
democracy,! level! of! democracy! squared,! log! of! population,! year/peace! years).! Finally,!
)"$ is!the!zero!mean!error!terms.!
We! utilize! negative! binomial! regression! (NBREG)! models! for! our! dependent!
variables,! which! are! annual! event! counts! (general! strikes,! antiIgovernment!
demonstrations,! assassinations,! and! coups).! We! also! utilize! a! logit! model! for! our! civil!
war!incidence!and!civil!war!onset!measure.!Finally,!we!utilize!an!ordered!logit!model!for!
our! civil! war! severity! measure.! We! limit! the! effects! of! heteroskedasticity! and! auto!
correlation! by! estimating! our! models! with! robust! standard! errors! and! include! a! year!
measure!in!our!negative!binomial!regression!models,!and!peace!years!with!three!cubic!
splines! in! our! logit! and! ordered! logit! models.! Table! 1! provides! a! summary! of! the!
operationalization! of! the! variables! and! their! sources! used! in! the! analysis.! Below,! we!
elaborate! on! the! operationalization! procedures! used! for! the! key! independent! and!
dependent!variables!to!ensure!replication.!
!
15!
a.(Dependent(Variables(
!
!
We! took! our! first! four! dependent! variables! from! Banks! and! Wilson:! 2015.! Our!
first! dependent! variable! is! general! strikes,! and! represents! the! annual! number! in! a!
country!of!any!strike!of!1,000!or!more!industrial!or!service!workers!that!involves!more!
than!one!employer!and!that!is!aimed!at!national!government!policies!or!authority.!Our!
second! dependent! variable! is! antiIgovernment! demonstrations! and! represents! the!
annual!number!in!a!country!of!any!peaceful!public!gathering!of!at!least!100!people!for!
the!primary!purpose!of!displaying!or!voicing!their!opposition!to!government!policies!or!
authority,! excluding! demonstrations! of! a! distinctly! antiIforeign! nature.! Our! third!
dependent!variable!is!assassinations,!which!represents!the!annual!number!of!politically!
motivated! murders! or! attempted! murders! of! a! high! government! official! or! politician.!
Our!fourth!dependent!variable!is!coups!and!represents!the!annual!number!in!a!country!
of!any!illegal!or!forced!change!in!the!top!government!elite,!any!attempt!at!such!a!change,!
or!any!successful!or!unsuccessful!armed!rebellion!whose!aim!is!independence!from!the!
central!government.!!
!
Our!fifth!dependent!variable!is!the!incidence!of!civil!war!with!at!least!25!annual!
battleIrelated!deaths.!Our!sixth!measure!is!the!onset!of!civil!war!with!at!least!25!annual!
battleIrelated! deaths.! We! utilize! Themnér and Wallensteen’s (2014) oneIyear! absence! of!
violence!as!the!threshold!for!the!onset!of!a!new!civil!war!if!violence!returns.!The!seventh!
and! final! measure! is! the! severity! of! civil! war! coded! on! a! 0I2! scale,! which! also! comes!
from! Themnér and Wallensteen (2014).! A! value! of! ‘0’! indicates! no! civil! war,! a! value! of! ‘1’!
indicates!the!incidence!of!a!civil!war!with!at!least!25!annual!battleIrelated!deaths!and!a!
value!of!‘2’!indicates!the!incidence!of!a!civil!war!with!at!least!1000!annual!battleIrelated!
deaths.! We! characterize! more! episodes! and! higher! likelihoods! of! citizen! protests! as!
!
16!
more!intense!civil!conflict!and!fewer!episodes!and!lower!likelihoods!of!citizen!protests!
as!less!intense.!!
b.(Independent(Variables(
!
!
We!utilize!measurements!of!the!human!rights!practices!of!governments!as!the!key!
independent! variables! in! the! second! stage.! We! rely! upon! metrics! that! reflect! annual!
changes!in!the!human!data!sets!rather!than!metrics!that!delineate!levels!of!repressive!
behavior! to! better! describe! changes! in! government! behavior.! With! these! metrics,! we!
can! better! understand! the! causal! relationship! between! violations! of! human! rights! by!
governments!and!citizen!response.!We!obtained!these!statistics!from!the!Cingranelli!and!
Richards! (CIRI:! 2014)! human! rights! data! set! now! housed! at! the! University! of!
Connecticut.! We! begin! with! their! empowerment! index! which! we! label! ‘political!
repression,’!which!is!a!Mokken!scale!from!the!CIRI:!it!is!built!on!Amnesty!International!
UK! and! US! Department! of! State! data! from! 1981! to! 2011! on! freedom! of! domestic!
movement,! freedom! of! foreign! movement! and! travel,! freedom! of! speech,! workers’!
rights,! freedom! of! assembly! and! association,! and! freedom! of! religion.! When!
governments! restrict! these! human! rights,! they! are! acting! in! a! politically! repressive!
manner.!We!next!used!CIRI’s!physical!integrity!rights!index,!labeled!‘violent!repression’,!
which!is!also!a!Mokken!scale!of!extra!judicial!killing,!forced!disappearances,!torture,!and!
political! imprisonment.! We! use! this! data! set! to! illuminate! violent! repression! because!
when! governments! politically! imprison,! kidnap! and! forcibly! remove! (disappear),!
torture,!or!kill!citizens,!they!are!using!violent,!repressive!means.!Like!the!other!data!set,!
Cingranelli!and!Richards!used!Amnesty!International!and!US!Department!of!State!data!
to!create!the!index.!
We!invert!the!original!threeIpart!scale!for!an!ease!of!discussion.!We!code!the!four!
physical!integrity!variables!as!follows:!0=no!violations;!1=some!violations!(1–49);!and!
!
17!
2=frequent! violations! (50! or! more).! The! range! of! the! index! goes! from! zero! to! eight! in!
total.,! with! a! value! of! zero! indicating! no! violations! of! any! physical! integrity! rights!
components.!A!value!of!eight!indicates!frequent!abuse!of!all!the!physical!integrity!rights!
components.! We! also! inverted! the! original! political! rights! components.! We! code!
violations!of!each!of!the!political!rights!components!on!a!three!part!scale!ranging!from!
0=practically! absent,! 1=moderate,! 2=severe! and! widespread.! The! range! of! the!
empowerment! index! goes! from! zero! to! twelve! in! total.! A! value! of! zero! indicates! no!
restrictions!on!all!of!the!political!rights!components.!A!value!of!twelve!indicates!severe!
and! widespread! restrictions! of! all! the! political! rights! components.! We! label! annual!
increases! in! repression! as! more! intense! (higher! levels! of! repression)! and! label! annual!
reductions! as! less! intense! (lower! levels! of! repression).! Higher! levels! of! political!
repression! tend! to! reflect! higher! levels! of! violations! of! civil! and! political! rights! and!
affect! more! people.! Higher! levels! of! violent! repression! tend! to! reflect! higher! levels! of!
violations! of! physical! integrity! rights! and! affect! more! people.! Less! intense! levels! of!
political!repression!tend!to!reflect!lower!levels!of!violations!of!civil!and!political!rights!
and! affect! fewer! people.! Less! intense! levels! of! violent! repression! tend! to! reflect! lower!
levels! of! violations! of! physical! integrity! rights! and! affect! fewer! people.! Among! the!
independent!variables,!pairwise!correlations!indicate!no!problems!of!multicollinearity.!
The! highest! substantive! pairwise! correlations! are! log! of! population! and! number! of!
excluded! ethnopolitical! groups! excluded! from! political! power! at! 0.59.! Collinearity!
diagnostics!indicate!a!VIF!score!of!3.04!for!our!measure!of!political!rights!violations!well!
below!the!threshold!of!10,!deemed!problematic.2!Table!2!provides!descriptive!statistics!
of!the!variables!used!in!the!analysis.!Table!3!provides!pairwise!correlations!amongst!the!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We note the constructed correlations between democracy and its squared term at 0.97 and the VIF score is 27.18
for the squared term. We ran the analysis without the squared term as a check and none of the results of our key
independent variables change.
2
!
18!
independent! variables! used! in! the! analysis.! Tables! 4I6! present! the! results! from! our!
analysis.!!
5.(Results(
!
!
In! Table! 4,! we! present! the! results! of! our! test! of! hypotheses! 1a,! 1b,! and! 1c.!
Hypothesis!1a!tested!a!grievance!based!approach!and!linked!more!political!repression!
to!an!initial!increase!in!the!frequency!of!nonIviolent!antiIgovernment!protest!followed!
by!a!subsequent!decrease!in!its!frequency!as!the!degree!of!repression!worsened,!so!that!
the!relationship!reflected!an!inverted!‘u’!shape.!Under!Hypothesis!1a,!we!expected!that!
political! repression! had! no! significant! effect! on! violent! antiIgovernment! protest.!
Hypothesis! 1b! also! tested! a! grievance! based! approach! and! linked! more! violent!
repression! to! an! initial! increase! in! the! frequency! of! violent! antiIgovernment! protest!
followed!by!a!subsequent!decrease!in!its!frequency!as!the!degree!of!violent!repression!
worsened,!so!that!the!relationship!reflected!an!inverted!‘u’!shape.!Under!Hypothesis!1b,!
we! expected! that! violent! repression! had! no! significant! effect! on! nonIviolent! antiI
government!protest.!Finally,!hypothesis!1c!tested!a!rational!choiceIbased!approach;!we!
expected! that! political! repression! decreased! the! frequency! of! nonIviolent! antiI
government!protest!but!has!no!effect!on!violent!antiIgovernment!protest.!!
!
We!find!little!support!for!hypothesis!1a.!We!found!that!when!repressive!leaders!
first!utilize!political!repression,!citizens!tend!to!stay!home!and!do!not!take!to!the!streets!
in! protest.! They! engage! in! fewer! nonIviolent! general! strikes! and! nonIviolent!
antigovernment! demonstrations! in! comparison! to! situations! where! governments! use!
less!political!repression.!We!also!find!that!as!leaders!increase!the!intensity!of!political!
repression,!citizens!tend!to!respond!violentlyIIas!indicated!by!a!significant!increase!in!
our!coups!measure.!We!find!greater!support!for!hypothesis!1b!–!that!citizens!respond!to!
!
19!
more!violent!repression!with!greater!violence!as!shown!by!a!significant!increase!in!our!
metrics! of! civil! war! incidence.! As! governments! increase! the! intensity! of! violent!
repression,! we! found! that! citizens! are! more! likely! to! organize! new! civil! wars! against!
their!governments!as!indicated!by!our!civil!war!onset!measure.!We!found!an!increase!in!
probability!of!civil!wars!with!more!than!one!thousand!deaths,!as!indicated!by!our!civil!
war! severity! measure.! However,! in! contrast! to! our! expectation! in! hypothesis! 1b,! our!
measures!of!the!civil!war!incidence,!onset,!and!severity!did!not!reveal!a!tipping!point!in!
citizens’!response!to!more!violent!repression.!Citizens!respond!with!more!violence,!not!
less,!to!greater!violence!by!their!government.!To!our!surprise,!the!results!also!indicate!
that! citizens! respond! to! violent! repression! with! more! nonIviolent! general! strikes! and!
nonIviolent! antiIgovernment! demonstrations.! In! fact,! not! only! is! the! relationship! nonI
linear! but! also! it! is! an! upward! ‘u’! shape! –! the! opposite! of! what! we! hypothesized! in!
hypothesis! 1b.! Citizens! initially! respond! to! violent! repression! with! fewer! incidents! of!
nonIviolent! protest,! but! as! governments! intensify! repression,! citizens! respond! by!
striking! and! demonstrating! more! frequently.! We! also! found! evidence! of! this! ‘u’! shape!
response! by! citizens! when! examining! how! often! they! engaged! in! coups! against! their!
governments! in! response! to! violent! repression.! We! found! that! the! average! number! of!
coups! dropped! initially,! but! then! increasingly! frustrated! citizens! participated! in! many!
more! coups! in! comparison! to! governments! that! did! not! utilize! repression.! Finally,! in!
contrast! to! our! expectation! of! an! inverted! ‘u’! shaped! relationship! between! violent!
repression! and! conflict,! our! findings! indicate! that! citizens! respond! to! more! violent!
repression!with!greater!participation!in!civil!wars.!Our!analysis!indicates!that!civil!wars!
became!more!frequent!and!more!severe!with!higher!numbers!of!deaths.!!
!!
We! detail! the! nature! of! all! the! significant! relationships! displayed! in! Table! 4! in!
Figures!1I13!that!follow!where!we!predict!the!substantive!effect!of!changes!in!political!
!
20!
or! violent! repression! on! the! frequency! of! our! dependent! variables.! With! reference! to!
hypothesis! 1a,! our! indicator! is! the! annual! change! in! government! use! of! political!
repression,! which! is! taken! from! the! CIRI! human! rights! database.! Political! repression!
includes! restrictions! on! domestic! movement,! foreign! movement,! speech,! workers’!
rights,!assembly!and!association,!and!religion.!Positive!values!in!the!political!repression!
measure! indicate! that! a! government! used! more! intense! political! repression! in!
comparison! to! the! previous! year.! Negative! values! in! the! political! repression! measure!
indicate!that!a!government!reduced!the!intensity!of!political!repression!in!comparison!
to!the!previous!year.!A!government!could,!in!theory,!go!from!a!policy!of!fully!protecting!
all!the!political!rights!in!our!index!to!severely!violating!each!component!in!the!next!year.!
For!example,!in!1983I1984.!Nigeria’s!civilian!government!was!toppled!by!a!coup!led!by!
Major!General!Muhammadu!Buhari,!resulting!in!a!crackdown!on!critics!and!journalists!
reporting! critically! on! the! regime,! amongst! other! things! (Global! Security:! 2015).! ! In! a!
contrasting! example,! a! government! can! move! from! high! repression! to! democracy.!!
Beginning! in! 1989,! Mongolian! protests! pushed! the! Communist! government! to! resign!
and!the!nation!became!democratic!in!1990.3!!
With! hypothesis! 1b,! we! examined! the! annual! change! in! CIRI! physical! integrity!
rights! index,! which! includes! extra! judicial! killing,! forced! disappearances,! torture,! and!
political!imprisonment!(our!violent!repression!measure).!Positive!values!in!the!violent!
repression! measure! indicate! that! a! government! increased! the! intensity! of! violent!
repression!in!comparison!to!the!previous!year.!Negative!values!in!the!violent!repression!
measure! indicate! that! a! government! reduced! the! intensity! of! violent! repression! in!
comparison! to! the! previous! year.! Our! annual! change! in! violent! repression! measure!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, “Mongolian Democracy: From Post-Soviet Success To Post-Transition
Struggle,” 8/24/2015,”
http://www.rferl.org/content/Mongolian_Democracy_From_PostSoviet_Success_To_PostTransition_Struggle/18
99808.html
3
!
21!
maxes!out!at!an!increase!of!5,!which!reflects!the!intensification!of!violent!repression!by!
the! Bahraini! government! in! 2010I2011,! as! that! government! suppressed! political!
protests.! In! comparison,! our! largest! annual! reduction! in! the! intensity! of! violent!
repression! in! our! dataset! reflects! the! changing! situation! in! Haiti! in! 1994I1995.!
Members!of!the!United!Nations!sent!troops!to!remove!the!ruling!junta!and!restore!the!
democratically!elected!government!of!JeanIBertrand!Aristide!to!power.4!!
!
We!next!examine!the!effects!on!our!different!dependent!variables!of!moving!from!
the! largest! reductions! in! the! intensity! of! political! or! violent! repression! to! the! largest!
increases! in! the! intensity! of! political! or! violent! repression.! In! Figure! 1,! we! see! that!
citizens! respond! to! an! intensification! of! political! repression! by! engaging! in! fewer!
general! strikes! from! about! 40! per! year! to! about! 0.! In! Figure! 2,! we! see! that! citizens!
respond! to! an! intensification! of! political! repression! by! engaging! in! fewer! antiI
government! demonstrations,! which! decline! from! about! 45! per! year! to! about! 0.! While!
these! first! two! relationships! described! in! figures! 1! and! 2! are! nonIlinear,! we! were!
surprised!when!we!mapped!the!relationship.!We!found!that!the!nonIlinearity!between!
violent!repression!and!general!strikes!and!antiIgovernment!demonstrations!plotted!as!a!
steeply!dropping!curve!that!then!flattens!out,!which!indicates!that!citizens!respond!to!a!
small!worsening!in!political!repression!by!dramatically!reducing!the!number!of!general!
strikes! and! antiIgovernment! demonstrations! they! engage! in.! We! also! find! that! higher!
levels! of! political! repression! do! not! have! any! additional! effect! on! the! frequency! of!
citizens! engaging! in! general! strikes! or! antiIgovernment! demonstrations.! Our! findings!
indicate!two!interesting!phenomena.!First,!we!find!that!relatively!small!increases!in!the!
intensity! of! political! repression! yield! large! reductions! in! the! amount! of! nonIviolent!
protest!against!the!state.!Secondly,!we!find!that!repressive!leaders!will!not!reap!stability!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4
!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_940
22!
by! increasing! the! intensity! of! political! repression,! as! citizens! will! continue! to! utilize!
nonIviolent!protest!against!repressive!leaders.!!
!
In! Figures! 3I6,! we! examine! citizens’! response! to! an! intensification! of! political!
repression!violent!antiIgovernment!protest..!In!Figure!3,!we!see!that!the!initial!response!
of!citizens!to!more!political!repression!is!to!engage!in!fewer!coups!against!the!state.!Yet!
as! governments! intensify! their! use! of! political! repression,! citizens! respond! by! more!
frequently!engaging!in!coups!against!the!state!because!they!feel!increasingly!aggrieved.!
Figure!4!tells!a!similar!story.!We!see!that!the!initial!response!of!citizens!to!more!political!
repression!is!to!become!much!less!likely!to!engage!in!organized!armed!civil!war!against!
the! state.! However,! as! governments! intensify! their! use! of! political! repression,! citizens!
respond! by! being! more! willing! to! engage! in! organized! civil! war! against! the! state!
because! they! feel! increasingly! aggrieved.! Next,! we! examine! the! effects! of! increasing!
amounts!of!political!repression!by!the!state!on!the!severity!of!civil!wars.!In!Figure!5,!we!
examine!minor!civil!wars!–!those!with!25I999!battle!deaths.!We!see!a!similar!pattern!in!
the!relationship!to!the!one!exhibited!in!Figure!4.!Citizens!respond!to!worsening!political!
repression!by!being!less!likely!to!organize!a!small!scale!civil!war!–!dropping!from!about!
a! .30! probability! of! a! minor! civil! war! in! any! given! year! to! about! a! .12! probability.! As!
political!repression!worsens,!citizens!respond!with!an!increased!willingness!to!organize!
against! the! state! –! increasing! to! about! a! .20! probability.! Figure! 6! examines! the!
willingness!of!citizens!to!engage!in!a!major!civil!war!with!more!than!1000!annual!battle!
deaths.!We!find!our!statistics!drop!from!about!a!.28!probability!of!a!major!civil!war!in!
any! given! year! to! about! .07,! then! increasing! to! about! .15! at! the! largest! worsening! in!
political!repression.!On!one!final!note,!all!of!these!relationships!discussed!in!Figures!3I6!
are!nonIlinear!but!take!the!opposite!shape!than!we!expected.!We!expected!an!inverted!
‘u’! shape! in! Figures! 3I6.! Instead,! Figures! 3I6! described! in! fact! a! regular! ‘u’! shaped!
!
23!
relationship! between! political! repression! and! conflict.! Hence,! our! data! shows! that! as!
repressive!leaders!increased!the!intensity!of!political!repression,!citizens!protested!less!
because!they!were!afraid.!However,!we!found!that!citizens!subsequently!increased!their!
participation!in!violent!protest.!!
!
Figures! 8I13! examine! the! effects! of! intensified! violent! repression! on! citizen!
response.! In! Figures! 7,! 8,! and! 9! we! see! a! similar! pattern! in! how! citizens! respond! to!
intensified! violent! repression! –! they! initially! stay! at! home.! We! find! that! citizens!
participate! in! about! over! one! fewer! general! strikes! per! year,! about! 10! fewer! antiI
government! demonstrations! per! year,! and! about! one! less! revolution! per! year! in!
comparison!to!a!situation!where!violent!repression!had!not!worsened.!However,!as!the!
degree! of! violent! repression! continued! to! intensify,! citizens! respond! with! more! nonI
violent!and!violent!protest!against!the!state,!with!just!over!one!more!general!strike!per!
year,! about! eleven! more! antiIgovernment! demonstrations! per! year,! and! about! half! a!
revolution!more!per!year.!Figures!10I13!display!a!more!linear!relationship!between!the!
response! of! citizen! willingness! to! organize! armed! civil! war,! engage! in! new! civil! wars,!
and! to! engage! in! more! bloody! civil! wars! to! the! increased! use! of! violent! repression! by!
the! state.! In! Figure! 10,! citizens! respond! to! worsening! violent! repression! by! rebelling!
more! often;! additionally,! the! chance! of! an! organized! civil! war! with! at! least! 25! battle!
deaths!increases!from!about!.12!to!about!.25.!In!Figure!11,!we!see!citizens!respond!to!
worsening! violent! repression! with! an! exponentially! increasing! willingness! to! rebel!
increasing!from!close!to!zero!to!just!over!.20!at!the!worst!levels!of!violent!repression.!In!
Figures! 12! and! 13! we! examine! citizens’! engagement! in! minor! and! major! civil! wars! in!
response! to! repression.! We! find! when! governments! intensify! violent! citizens! appear!
more! willing! to! engage! in! minor! and! major! civil! wars,! increasing! from! about! .10! to!
about!.20!for!minor!civil!wars!and!about!.03!to!about!.07!for!major!civil!wars.!Hence!as!
!
24!
governments! increase! the! intensity! of! violent! repression! citizens! respond! ever! more!
violently.!!
In! Table! 5! we! present! an! analysis! that! examines! hypothesis! 1d,! which! builds!
upon!grievance!based!theories.!We!hypothesized!that!the!combined!effects!of!political!
and(violent!repression!increases!and!then!subsequently!decreases!with(the!frequency!of!
both!nonIviolent!and!violent!antiIgovernment!protest.!We!also!examine!hypothesis!1e,!
which!is!an!opportunityIbased!hypothesis!which!proposes!that!the!combined!effects!of!
political!and!violent!repression!will!lead!citizens!to!reduce!both!nonIviolent!and!violent!
antiIgovernment!protest.!!
However,!we!found!that!citizens!respond!to!increases!in!the!use!of!both!political!
and! violent! repression! by! first! reducing! then! gradually! increasing! their! nonviolent!
political! protests! as! represented! by! the! number! of! general! strikes! they! engage! in.! We!
see! a! similar! if! not! dramatic! pattern! for! antiIgovernment! demonstrations! and! coups.!
Citizens!first!respond!to!increases!in!the!use!of!both!political!and!violent!repression!by!
reducing! the! numbers! of! antiIgovernment! demonstrations! and! coups! they! engage! in!
and! then! exponentially! increasing! their! engagement! in! these! nonIviolent! protests.! In!
Figures!14I16,!we!display!these!relationships!between!citizens’!willingness!to!engage!in!
general!strikes,!antiIgovernment!demonstrations,!and!coups!to!governments’!utilization!
of!more!severe!means!violent!and!political!repression.5!!
!
We! next! discuss! our! control! measures.! When! they! are! significant,! our! controls!
generally!support!the!results!of!existing!research,!with!the!exception!of!the!democracy!
measures! that! we! discuss! below.! We! find! that! when! more! groups! are! excluded! from!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In figures 14 and 15 sure we limit the range of our interaction terms to -10 to plus 10 because beyond those values
we have very few cases of either large reductions or large increases in governments using both political and violent
repression which creates large confidence intervals around our predictions. Since the confidence intervals are larger
and 0 that indicate that we cannot differentiate those predictions from an insignificant finding which is why we limit
our range of predictions to those that remain significantly different from 0.
5
!
25!
political!power,!they!are!more!likely!to!engage!in!severe!civil!conflict!as!shown!in!both!
Tables!4!and!5.!Our!indicator!of!wealth,!the!log!of!real!GDP!per!capita,!indicated!two!sets!
of!interesting!results.!As!Tables!4!and!5!illuminate,!wealthier!countries!are!significantly!
more! likely! to! face! nonIviolent! antiIgovernment! demonstrations! (we! found! more!
demonstrations! but! fewer! strikes).! With! widespread! use! of! social! media! and! other!
digital!technologies,!citizens!in!wealthier!countries!may!find!it!easier!for!organize!and!
protest! government! policy! without! government! interference.! We! can! best! understand!
this! by! comparing! government! response! to! social! media! in! the! UK! and! in! the! Arab!
Spring.!During!the!London!riots!of!2011,!many!individuals!used!Blackberry!messenger!
to! organize! protests! against! what! they! perceived! as! governmentIcondoned! racial!
violence.! The! UK! government! tried! to! limit! its! use,! which! led! to! even! more! protests.6!
Citizens! in! developing! countries! such! as! Egypt! and! Tunisia! have! also! relied! on! social!
media!to!organize.!In!these!countries,!repressive!leaders!in!developing!countries!simply!
switched!off!or!banned!such!media!to!thwart!protest.!!!Leaders!in!democracies!cannot!
simply! turn! off! the! Internet! or! Blackberry! Messenger! without! increasing! political!
protests.7!!
!
We!find!that!wealthier!countries!are!less!likely!to!exhibit!all!types!of!violent!antiI
government! protest! as! shown! by! both! Tables! 4! and! 5.! Wealthier! countries! are!
significantly!less!likely!to!undergo!coups!or!face!a!reduced!incidence!and!onset!of!civil!
war,! and! if! they! do! break! out! they! will! be! less! severe.! ! Some! argue! that! people! in!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Josh Halladay, “ London riots: how BlackBerry Messenger played a key role,” The Guardian, 8/11/2011,
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2011/aug/08/london-riots-facebook-twitter-blackberry; and Olivia Solon,
“Q&A: Why has BlackBerry been blamed for the London riots?” Wired UK, 8/9/2011,
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2011-08/09/why-are-we-blaming-bbm-for-riots
6
For developing countries, see World Development book case study: the role of social networking in the
Arab Spring, http://newint.org/books/reference/world-development/case-studies/social-networking-in-the-arabspring/. When the US and UK tried to “shut down” social media during riots, they were chastised by both citizens
and companies such as Facebook and Twitter. See Mirae Yang, “The Collision of Social Media and Social Unrest:
Why Shutting Down Social Media is the Wrong Response,” Northwestern Journal of Technology and Intellectual
Property, 11, Issue 7, Article 7,
http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1208&context=njtip
7
!
26!
wealthier! countries! are! less! willing! to! rebel! because! they! have! more! to! lose! both!
economically! and! politically.! They! may! value! the! status! quo! over! an! uncertain! future!
that! could! arise! from! engaging! the! state! in! a! civil! war.! Alternatively,! polling! data!
suggests! that! people! in! wealthier! nations! are! generally! more! satisfied! with! their!
governments.! Wealthier! governments! tend! to! have! better! governance! than! poorer!
states! and! citizens! are! happier! with! better! governance.! Scholars! have! shown! that!
happier! people! have! a! higher! desire! to! vote! and! a! greater! respect! for! law! and! order!
(Guven:! 2009;! Ott:! 2010).! The! results! also! indicate! that! governments! with! greater!
natural!resource!rents!face!more!new!civil!wars,!indicated!by!our!measure!of!new!civil!
conflict!onset,!significant!in!both!Tables!4!and!5.!Our!findings!are!consistent!with!those!
who! argue! that! these! natural! resource! rents! are! a! potential! lucrative! prize! for!
opposition!groups!that!want!to!take!over!these!states!(Collier!and!Hoeffler:!2004).!We!
also!find!that!more!nonIviolent!and!violent!antiIgovernment!protest!takes!place!in!more!
populous! countries.! Our! findings! are! consistent! with! earlier! research! that! in! highly!
populous! countries,! the! state! may! be! unable! to! meet! the! needs! of! all! its! population,!
leading!to!more!protest!against!the!state!(Henderson:!1993).!Moreover,!grievances!may!
be! more! widespread,! opposition! groups! may! be! more! numerous,! and! these! groups!
could! find! it! easier! to! recruit! members! in! more! populous! countries! (Cederman! et! al:!
2013).!!
However,!in!contrast!to!the!findings!of!much!of!the!literature,!our!results!indicate!
that!mixed!political!regimes!have!fewer!strikes,!coups,!civil!wars,!and!those!that!break!
out!tend!to!be!less!severe.!Our!findings!are!similar!to!those!of!Vreeland!(2008)!whose!
analysis! indicates! little! support! for! the! argument! that! mixed! regimes! face! more! civil!
wars.!Our!findings!extend!his!analysis!and!link!mixed!regimes!to!fewer!general!strikes,!
coups,! and! civil! wars;! those! civil! wars! that! break! out! also! tend! to! be! less! severe.! We!
!
27!
hope!other!scholars!will!examine!and!test!these!results.!Next,!we!briefly!discuss!some!
robustness!tests!we!conducted.!
a.(Robustness(Tests(
!
In! Tables! 6! and! 7! we! add! a! measure! of! state! capacity! to! our! analysis.! State!
capacity! describes! the! ability! of! the! state! to! govern! its! people! and! territory.! Scholars!
have! generally! found! that! states! with! inadequate! governance! are! more! likely! to!
experience!higher!levels!of!conflict!in!society!(see!Hendrix:!2014!for!a!good!discussion).!
State! capacity! data,! however,! is! only! available! for! the! period! between! 1984! and! 1998!
and! as! a! result,! we! could! only! perform! a! robustness! test! on! one! third! of! our! cases.!
However,!we!found!consistency!with!our!initial!results!displayed!in!Tables!4!and!5.!In!
Table!6,!we!examine!the!effects!of!political!and!violent!repression.!We!still!find!a!nonI
linear! relationship! between! political! repression! and! antiIgovernment! demonstrations!
as!we!did!in!Table!4.!As!with!those!findings!we!presented!in!Table!4,!we!still!find!a!nonI
linear! relationship! between! violent! and! general! strikes,! as! well! as! antiIgovernment!
demonstrations.!And!we!also!still!find!a!linear!relationship!between!violent!repression!
and!more!frequent!civil!wars,!new!civil!wars,!and!more!severe!civil!wars,!as!shown!in!
Table!4.!However,!in!contrast!to!the!findings!presented!in!Table!4,!our!robustness!tests!
indicate! that! political! repression! reduces! the! likelihood! of! civil! war! onset,! and! violent!
repression! is! associated! with! fewer! assassinations.! On! Table! 7! we! examine! the!
consequences! of! governments! using! both! political! and! violent! repression.! In!
comparison!to!Table!5,!we!still!find!a!nonIlinear!relationship!between!government!use!
of!both!political!and!violent!repression!and!citizen!response.!In!contrast!with!our!earlier!
findings! in! Table! 7,! we! find! a! negative! linear! relationship! between! the! use! of! both!
political!and!violent!repression!and!the!severity!of!civil!war.!!
!
28!
6.(Conclusions!
(
In!this!article,!we!examined!how!citizens!respond!to!different!types!and!levels!of!
state! repression.! We! find! that! repression! is! a! feedback! mechanism.! As! other! scholars!
have! asserted,! we! find! that! citizens! initially! are! scared,! but! then! respond! to! political!
repression! with! nonviolent! protest! such! as! strikes! and! demonstrations.! However,! we!
also! find! that! as! governments! intensify! the! degree! of! political! repression,! citizens!
respond! with! violent! actions! such! as! coups! and! civil! wars.! Hence! political! repression!
can!lead!to!violent!responses!as!citizens!become!increasingly!frustrated.!!
Secondly,! we! find! that! when! governments! use! violent! repression,! citizens! also!
respond! in! a! variety! of! ways.! Citizens! gradually! transcend! their! fears! of! risk! as! they!
become! increasingly! aggrieved! and! respond! with! both! nonviolent! actions! such! as!
strikes! and! antiIgovernment! demonstrations! as! well! as! violent! actions! such! as! coups!
and!civil!wars.!As!repressive!leaders!intensify!violent!repression,!citizens!again!respond!
to! violence! with! both! violent! and! nonviolent! actions.! Finally,! we! found! that! when!
governments! utilize! both! violent! and! political! repression,! citizens! also! rely! on! violent!
and! nonviolent! protest.! As! repressive! leaders! intensify! their! use! of! both! forms! of!
repression,!citizens!again!respond!in!kind.!!
Our! findings! yield! mixed! support! for! the! two! main! theories! of! the!
repression/civil! conflict! relationship! –! the! opportunityIbased! and! grievanceIbased!
approaches.! While! some! of! our! findings! did! indicate! nonIlinear! relationships! as!
indicated!by!the!grievance!approach,!the!nature!of!the!relationship!with!conflict!was!the!
opposite!of!what!we!expected!based!on!this!literature.!Across!a!number!of!our!different!
dependent! variables,! we! found! that! citizens! responded! to! more! violent! repression! by!
first! acquiescence,! and! then! when! repression! intensified,! by! protesting! more.! The!
relationship! we! found! between! worsening! violent! repression! and! more! nonIviolent!
!
29!
protest,!and!worsening!violent!repression!and!coups!was!a!‘u’!rather!than!an!inverted!
‘u’!as!we!had!expected.!Likewise,!we!found!only!very!limited!support!for!the!idea!found!
in! the! opportunity! literature! that! citizens! would! respond! to! governments! making!
protest!more!costly,!through!higher!levels!of!repression,!by!reducing!their!willingness!to!
engage!in!antiIgovernment!protest.!We!only!found!evidence!of!this!relationship!in!our!
models! of! political! repression! and! nonIviolent! protest.! Finally,! we! found! that! mixed!
regimes!are!not!more!conflict!prone!than!other!types!of!political!regimes.!Our!findings!
confirm!those!of!Vreeland!(2008)!who!found!little!evidence!that!anocracies!were!more!
conflict! prone.! We! hope! that! other! scholars! will! test! our! findings! and! examine! the!
implications! of! these! findings! for! current! theory! about! the! repression! civil! conflict!
relationship.!!
!
Given! our! findings,! readers! may! wonder! why! leaders,! especially! democratic!
leaders,! would! rely! on! violent! repression! if! they! recognize! that! their! citizens! will!
respond!with!violence.!Some!leaders!may!be!motivated!by!the!need!to!“do!something,”!
rather! than! the! need! to! maintain! stability.! As! an! example,! the! British! government!
responded! with! violent! repression! in! Northern! Ireland! to! demonstrate! to! their! own!
supporters! that! they! were! doing! something! to! quell! the! conflict,! even! if! it! was!
counterproductive! in! the! medium! to! long! term! (Lafree,! Duggan! and! Korte:! 2009).!
Alternatively,! it! may! be! that! they! are! responding! to! an! internal! threat.! In! Sri! Lanka,!
President!Rajapaksa!felt!threatened!by!independent!judges!and!he!sacked!the!leader!of!
the! Supreme! Court.! Researchers! may! need! to! reIconsider! some! of! the! assumptions!
about! which! decision! makers! use! repression.! For! this! reason,! in! the! future! we! will!
examine! whether! leaders! who! choose! political,! violent! or! a! mix! of! repressive! tactics!
have!longer!or!shorter!tenure!in!office.!!
!
30!
We! believe! our! findings! have! implications! for! both! repressive! leaders! and!
policymakers! in! democratic! nations! that! seek! to! reduce! the! use! of! repression.! Most!
repressive!leaders!think!repression!will!help!them!maintain!political!stability.!However,!
government! officials! who! think! that! they! can! maintain! political! stability! by! relying!
solely! on! political! repression! may! be! confronted! with! greater! violence! over! time.!
Moreover,! government! officials! who! think! they! can! maintain! stability! with! violent!
repression! will! be! likely! confronted! with! more! nonviolent! demonstrations! as! well! as!
more! violent! civil! conflict.! And! finally,! government! officials! who! rely! on! both! political!
and! violent! means! of! repression! may! be! also! confronted! by! more! frequent! violent!
protests! as! well! as! nonIviolent! responses! in! comparison! to! those! situations! where!
governments! used! neither! political! nor! violent! repression.! Hence,! repression! is! a!
dangerous!policy!choice!for!leaders!who!want!to!maintain!political!stability.!Moreover,!
repressive!leaders,!especially!those!who!lead!nations!with!inadequate!governance,!may!
find! it! difficult! to! calibrate! the! level! and! type! of! repression! to! avoid! creating! everI
greater!instability.!Burundi’s!President!should!beware.!!
We! believe! this! research,! if! replicated,! also! suggests! two! important! lessons! for!
the!United!States’!and!other!industrialized!countries’!foreign!policy!strategies.!First,!we!
find! no! evidence! that! political! repression! is! a! preferable! policy! tool! compared! with!
violent!repression.!Citizens!will!respond!violently!to!political!repression!as!they!become!
increasingly! frustrated.! Secondly,! rather! than! making! normsIbased! arguments! against!
repression,! Western! policymakers! should! rely! on! appealing! to! the! selfIinterest! of!
repressive!leaders.!If!repressive!leaders!such!as!those!in!China,!Russia,!or!Burundi!want!
to!maintain!social!stability,!it!is!in!their!own!selfIinterest!not!to!use!repression.!
!
31!
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35!
Table(1:(Variable(descriptions(and(sources((
Variable(
Indicator(
Dependent(Variables(
(
General!strikes!
Any!strike!of!1,000!or!more!industrial!or!service!
workers!that!involves!more!than!one!employer!and!
that!is!aimed!at!national!government!policies!or!
authority.!
AntiIgovernment! Any!peaceful!public!gathering!of!at!least!100!people!
demonstrations!
for!the!primary!purpose!of!displaying!or!voicing!
their!opposition!to!government!policies!or!
authority,!excluding!demonstrations!of!a!distinctly!
antiIforeign!nature.!
Assassinations!!
Any!politically!motivated!murder!or!attempted!
murder!of!a!high!government!official!or!politician.!
Coups!
Any!illegal!or!forced!change!in!the!top!government!
elite,!any!attempt!at!such!a!change,!or!any!
successful!or!unsuccessful!armed!rebellion!whose!
aim!is!independence!from!the!central!government.!!
Civil!war!incidence! 0=No!conflict,!1=25+!annual!battleIrelated!deaths.!
Civil!war!onset!
Civil!war!severity!
0=No!conflict,!1=25+!annual!battleIrelated!deaths.!
Coded!as!1!if!this!is!a!
new!conflict!is!more!than!one!year!since!the!last!
observation!of!the!conflict.!
0=No!conflict,!1=25+!annual!battleIrelated!deaths,!
2=1000+!annual!battleIrelated!deaths.!
Independent(variables(
(
Source(
(
Banks!and!Wilson!
(2015)!
Banks!and!Wilson!
(2015)!
Banks!and!Wilson!
(2015)!
Banks!and!Wilson!
(2015)!
Themnér!and!
Wallensteen!(2014)!
Gleditsch!et!al.!(2002)!
Themnér!and!
Wallensteen!(2014)!
Gleditsch!et!al.!(2002)!
Themnér!and!
Wallensteen!(2014)!
Gleditsch!et!al.!(2002)!
(
Change!in!violent!
government!
repression!
Change!in!
government!
violation!of!
political!rights!
Annual!change!in!Mokken!scale:!extra!judicial!
Constructed.!
killing,!forced!disappearances,!torture,!political!
Cingranelli!&!Richards!
imprisonment!(inverted!original!scale)!
(2014)!
Annual!change!in!Mokken!scale:!freedom!of!
Constructed.!
domestic!movement,!freedom!of!foreign!movement,! Cingranelli!&!Richards!
freedom!of!speech,!workers’!rights,!freedom!of!
(2014)!
assembly!and!association!and!freedom!of!religion.!
(inverted!original!scale)!
Control(variables( (
(
Number!of!groups!
excluded!from!
political!power!
Real!GDP!per!
capita!US!dollars!
Total!natural!
resources!rents!
Number!of!ethnopolitical!groups!excluded!from!
political!power!
Cederman!et!al!(2013)!
GDP!per!capita!current!U.S.!$!(PPP)!
Feenstra!et!al.!(2013)!
Level!of!
democracy!
Polity!X!measure.!Democracy!score!1I14!index!
measure!
Level!of!
democracy!
squared!
Log!of!Population!
Polity!X!measure!squared.!1I196!index!measure!
Year/Peace!years!
Year/Cubic!splines!BTSCS!method!
!
Sum!of!oil!rents,!natural!gas!rents,!coal!rents!(hard!
and!soft),!mineral!rents,!and!forest!rents.!
Log!of!population!size!
World!Bank!World!
Development!
Indicators!(2012);!
Teorel!et!al!(2015)!
Vreeland!(2008);!
Marshall!&!Jaggers!
(2014)!
Vreeland!(2008),!
Marshall!&!Jaggers!
(2014)!
Constructed,!Feenstra!
et!al.!!(2013)!
Constructed/Beck!et!al.!
(1998)!
36!
Table&2:&Descriptive&statistics&
Variable!
Mean!
Standard!Deviation!
Minimum!
Maximum!
General!strikes!
0.115!
0.499!
0!
8!
AntiAgovernment!demonstrations!
0.569!
2.254!
0!
74!
Assassinations!!
0.165!
0.868!
0!
26!
Coups!
0.172!
0.494!
0!
9!
Civil!war!incidence!
0.175!!!!!!!!
0.38!!!!!!!!!!!
0!
1!
Civil!war!onset!
!0.042!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!0.2!!
0!
1!
Civil!war!severity!
0.229!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!0.533!!!!!!!!!!!
0!
2!
Change!in!violation!of!political!rights!
0.113!
1.262!
A9!
6!
Change!in!violent!government!repression!!
0.023!!
!!!!1.211!
A6!
5!
Number!of!groups!excluded!from!political!power!
2.497!
4.921!
0!
55!
Log!GDP!per!capita!US!dollars!
8.65!!!!!!
!!1.306!!!!
Total!natural!resources!rents!
9.409!
14.118!
0!
94.64!
Level!of!democracy!
9.62!
4.326!
1!
14!
111.253!
73.18!
1!
196!
1.872!
1.941!
3.2!
9.725!
1996.425!
8.87!
1981!
2011!
Level!of!democracy!squared!
Log!of!Population!
Year!
4.98!!!!
11.623!
!
!
37!
Table&3:&Pairwise&correlations&amongst&independent&variables&
|!
Change!in!
Change!in!
Number!of!
violation!of! violent!
Excluded!
political!
government!
Groups!
rights!
repression!!
!
Change!in!
1! !
!
violation!of!
political!rights!
!
Change!in!violent!
0.113!
1! !
government!
repression!!
Number!of!
0.005!
0.009!
1!
Excluded!Groups!
Log!GDP!per!
0.004!
A0.006!
A0.046!
Capita!
Natural!resource!
0.003!
A0.022!
0.061!
rents!
Democracy!
A.0.017!
A0.023!
A0.051!
Democracy!Sqd!
Log!GDP!per!
Capita!
Natural!
resource!
rents!
Democracy!
Democracy!
Sqd!
Log!of!
Population!
Year!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
1! !
!
!
!
!
1! !
!
!
!
1! !
!
!
1! !
!
A0.1!
0.48!
A0.421!
A.0.013!
A0.022!
A0.083!
0.511!
A0.433!
0.978!
Log!of!Population!
0.003!
0.006!
0.428!
A0.014!
A0.083!
0.12!
0.098!
Year!
0.022!
0.009!
0.023!
0.12!
0.09!
0.149!
0.141!
!
1! !
0.064!
1!
38!
Table&4:&Government&use&of&political&and&violent&repression&and&their&effects&on&anti>government&behavior,&1981>2011,&all&Countries&
!
NonAviolent!antiAgovernment!behavior!
Violent!antiAgovernment!behavior!
!
General!
AntiAgovernment!
Assassinations!
Coups!
Civil!war!incidence! Civil!war!onset!
strikes!
demonstrations!
Change!in!violation!of!!
A0.011!
A0.058!
0.031!
0.058*!
A0.010!
A0.081!
political!rights!
(0.048)!
(0.034)!
(0.060)!
(0.029)!
(0.038)!
(0.066)!
Change!in!violation!of!!
0.070***!
0.047***!
0.025!
0.019*!
0.031*!
0.018!
political!rights!sqd!
(0.014)!
(0.013)!
(0.023)!
(0.010)!
(0.014)!
(0.020)!
Change!in!violent!government!!
0.065!
0.082*!
A0.004!
0.003!
0.126**!
0.383***!
Repression!
(0.042)!
(0.034)!
(0.057)!
(0.034)!
(0.041)!
(0.078)!
Change!in!violent!government!!
0.073***!
0.100***!
A0.006!
0.055***!
0.000!
0.011!
repression!sqd!
(0.018)!
(0.019)!
(0.025)!
(0.013)!
(0.020)!
(0.033)!
Control'variables'
!
!
!
!
!
!
Number!of!groups!excluded!!
A0.022!
0.007!
A0.002!
0.003!
0.028!
A0.005!
from!political!power!
(0.016)!
(0.007)!
(0.011)!
(0.009)!
(0.015)!
(0.017)!
Log!Real!GDP!Per!Capita!!
A0.092!
0.175***!
A0.340***!
A0.489***!
A0.514***!
A0.504***!
US!dollars!
(0.063)!
(0.041)!
(0.071)!
(0.046)!
(0.046)!
(0.080)!
Total!natural!resources!rents!
A0.004!
A0.008!
A0.004!
A0.001!
0.004!
0.028***!
!
(0.007)!
(0.005)!
(0.007)!
(0.004)!
(0.005)!
(0.006)!
Level!of!democracy!
A0.230**!
A0.007!
0.241*!
A0.119*!
A0.356***!
A0.094!
!
(0.084)!
(0.090)!
(0.112)!
(0.055)!
(0.057)!
(0.102)!
Level!of!democracy!squared!
0.023***!
0.001!
A0.007!
0.008*!
0.022***!
0.008!
!
(0.005)!
(0.005)!
(0.006)!
(0.004)!
(0.004)!
(0.006)!
Log!of!population!
0.379***!
0.516***!
0.516***!
0.294***!
0.545***!
0.492***!
!
(0.043)!
(0.035)!
(0.059)!
(0.041)!
(0.036)!
(0.071)!
Year!
A0.061***!
A0.001!
A0.043***!
A0.004!
AA!
AA!
!
(0.009)!
(0.008)!
(0.010)!
(0.005)!
!
!
Constant!
119.397***!
A0.739!
83.700***!
9.705!
2.123***!
A1.117!
!
(18.647)!
(15.162)!
(20.165)!
(10.586)!
(0.427)!
(0.841)!
Observations!
3,682!
3,682!
3,682!
3,682!
3,682!
3,682!
Robust!standard!errors!in!parentheses,!two!tailed!tests!***!p<0.001,!**!p<0.01,!*!p<0.05.!Note!peace!years!and!cubic!splines!used!for!civil!war!models.!
!
!
Civil!war!
severity!
0.002!
(0.039)!
0.033*!
(0.014)!
0.122**!
(0.041)!
0.001!
(0.019)!
!
0.036*!
(0.015)!
A0.512***!
(0.044)!
0.002!
(0.005)!
A0.368***!
(0.058)!
0.023***!
(0.004)!
0.497***!
(0.033)!
AA!
!
AA!
!
3,682!
!
39!
Table&5:&Government&use&of&both&political&and&violent&repression&and&their&effects&on&anti>government&behavior&1981>2011,&all&Countries&
NonAviolent!antiAgovernment!behavior!
NonAviolent!antiAgovernment!behavior!
General!
AntiAgovernment!!
Assassinations!
Coups!
Civil!war!
Civil!
strikes!
demonstrations!
incidence!!
war!
onset!!
Change!in!use!of!both!political!and!violent!repression!
A0.004!
0.041!
0.052!
0.007!
A0.044!
0.094!
!
(0.030)!
(0.027)!
(0.039)!
(0.022)!
(0.030)!
(0.062)!
Change!in!use!of!both!political!and!violent!repression!sqd!
0.012**!
0.017**!
A0.004!
0.005***!
A0.001!
A0.004!
!
(0.005)!
(0.005)!
(0.005)!
(0.001)!
(0.004)!
(0.006)!
Constituent'terms'
'
'
'
'
'
'
Change!in!violation!of!political!rights!
A0.044!
A0.062!
0.037!
0.057!
A0.007!
A0.131!
!
(0.055)!
(0.034)!
(0.060)!
(0.030)!
(0.042)!
(0.083)!
Change!in!violent!government!repression!
0.069!
0.123*!
A0.013!
A0.002!
0.127**! 0.405***!
!
(0.047)!
(0.050)!
(0.059)!
(0.039)!
(0.041)!
(0.073)!
Control'variables'
'
'
'
'
'
'
Number!of!groups!excluded!from!political!power!
A0.021!
0.008!
A0.003!
0.004!
0.026!
A0.005!
!
(0.015)!
(0.007)!
(0.011)!
(0.010)!
(0.015)!
(0.017)!
Log!Real!GDP!Per!Capita!US!dollars!
A0.124*!
0.173***!
A0.351***!
A0.506***!
A0.530***!
A
0.513***!
!
(0.063)!
(0.045)!
(0.071)!
(0.045)!
(0.045)!
(0.080)!
Total!natural!resources!rents!
A0.001!
A0.007!
A0.004!
0.000!
0.004!
0.029***!
!
(0.007)!
(0.004)!
(0.007)!
(0.004)!
(0.005)!
(0.006)!
Level!of!democracy!
A0.221**!
0.001!
0.228*!
A0.115*!
A0.359***!
A0.109!
!
!
!
(0.084)!
(0.081)!
(0.111)!
(0.055)!
(0.057)!
(0.101)!
Level!of!democracy!squared!
0.022***!
A0.000!
A0.006!
0.007*!
0.022***!
0.009!
!
(0.005)!
(0.004)!
(0.006)!
(0.004)!
(0.004)!
(0.006)!
Log!of!population!
0.374***!
0.489***!
0.516***!
0.293***!
0.544***! 0.495***!
!
(0.043)!
(0.037)!
(0.058)!
(0.041)!
(0.036)!
(0.071)!
Year!
A0.064***!
A0.002!
A0.043***!
A0.006!
AA!
AA!
!
(0.009)!
(0.007)!
(0.010)!
(0.005)!
!
!
Constant!
(18.853)!
(14.579)!
(20.086)!
(10.319)!
2.332***!
A0.971!
!
124.580***!
0.258!
83.829***!
14.111!
(0.416)!
(0.821)!
Observations!
3,682!
3,682!
3,682!
3,682!
3,682!
3,682!
Robust!standard!errors!in!parentheses,!two!tailed!tests!***!p<0.001,!**!p<0.01,!*!p<0.05.!Note!peace!years!and!cubic!splines!used!for!civil!war!models.!!
!
Civil!
war!
severity!
A0.048!
(0.030)!
A0.000!
(0.004)!
'
0.004!
(0.042)!
0.124**!
(0.041)!
'
0.035*!
(0.016)!
A
0.528***!
(0.044)!
0.002!
(0.005)!
A
0.372***!
(0.058)!
0.023***!
(0.004)!
0.496***!
(0.033)!
AA!
!
!
!
3,682!
40!
Table&6:&Government&use&of&political&and&violent&repression&and&their&effects&on&anti>government&behavior,&including&state&capacity&1984>1998,&
!
!
Change!in!violation!of!political!rights!
!
Change!in!violation!of!political!rights!sqd!
!
Change!in!violent!government!repression!
!
Change!in!violent!government!repression!sqd!
!
Control'variables'
State!Capacity'
!
Number!of!groups!excluded!from!political!power!
!
Log!Real!GDP!Per!Capita!US!dollars!
!
Total!natural!resources!rents!
!
Level!of!democracy!
!
Level!of!democracy!squared!
!
Log!of!population!
!
Year!
!
Constant!
!
Observations!
NonAviolent!antiAgovernment!behavior!
General!strikes!
A0.004!
(0.062)!
0.045!
(0.025)!
0.091!
(0.054)!
0.056*!
(0.026)!
!
A0.565***!
(0.093)!
A0.043*!
(0.020)!
0.094!
(0.095)!
A0.001!
(0.012)!
A0.365***!
(0.093)!
0.033***!
(0.006)!
0.324***!
(0.058)!
A0.064***!
(0.016)!
125.010***!
(31.107)!
1,344!
AntiAgovernment!
demonstrations!
A0.059!
(0.054)!
0.056*!
(0.022)!
0.003!
(0.047)!
0.079***!
(0.023)!
!
A0.162*!
(0.078)!
0.014!
(0.013)!
0.119!
(0.080)!
A0.018*!
(0.007)!
0.019!
(0.080)!
0.003!
(0.005)!
0.416***!
(0.053)!
A0.013!
(0.015)!
23.539!
(30.820)!
1,344!
Violent!antiAgovernment!behavior!
Assassinations!
Coups!
0.009!
(0.073)!
0.058!
(0.033)!
A0.029!
(0.070)!
A0.124***!
(0.036)!
!
A0.753***!
(0.110)!
A0.111***!
(0.024)!
0.020!
(0.102)!
A0.010!
(0.013)!
0.912*!
(0.361)!
A0.034*!
(0.017)!
0.642***!
(0.074)!
A0.001!
(0.019)!
A5.239!
(36.869)!
1,344!
0.026!
(0.044)!
0.009!
(0.013)!
0.005!
(0.052)!
0.033!
(0.022)!
!
A0.482***!
(0.091)!
A0.030!
(0.018)!
A0.210*!
(0.090)!
A0.008!
(0.009)!
A0.127!
(0.081)!
0.009!
(0.005)!
0.409***!
(0.084)!
0.020!
(0.016)!
A40.409!
(31.498)!
1,344!
Civil!war!
incidence!
A0.042!
(0.055)!
A0.002!
(0.017)!
0.151*!
(0.060)!
A0.003!
(0.030)!
!
!
A0.585***!
(0.100)!
A0.037*!
(0.017)!
A0.320***!
(0.088)!
A0.024*!
(0.012)!
A0.226*!
(0.088)!
0.016**!
(0.005)!
0.575***!
(0.065)!
AA!
1.609*!
(0.722)!
1,344!
Civil!war!
onset!!
A0.239*!
(0.110)!
A0.030!
(0.037)!
0.447**!
(0.137)!
0.007!
(0.058)!
!
A0.176!
(0.166)!
A0.060**!
(0.022)!
A0.388*!
(0.173)!
0.028!
(0.017)!
0.157!
(0.200)!
A0.004!
(0.011)!
0.666***!
(0.118)!
!
!
A3.000!
(1.738)!
1,344!
Civil!war!
severity!!
A0.018!
(0.056)!
0.003!
(0.017)!
0.137*!
(0.057)!
A0.009!
(0.028)!
!
A0.513***!
(0.093)!
A0.018!
(0.018)!
A0.382***!
(0.088)!
A0.025*!
(0.013)!
A0.248**!
(0.090)!
0.018***!
(0.005)!
0.473***!
(0.056)!
!
!
!
!
1,344!
Robust!standard!errors!in!parentheses,!two!tailed!tests!***!p<0.001,!**!p<0.01,!*!p<0.05.!Note!peace!years!and!cubic!splines!used!for!civil!war!models.!
!
41!
Table&7:&Government&use&of&both&political&and&violent&repression&and&their&effects&on&anti>government&behavior&including&state&capacity&1984>1998!
!
!
Change!in!use!of!both!political!and!!
violent!repression!
Change!in!use!of!both!political!and!!
violent!repression!sqd!
Constituent'terms'
Change!in!violation!of!political!rights!
!
Change!in!violent!government!repression!
!
Control'variables'
State!Capacity!
!
Number!of!groups!excluded!from!political!!
Power!
Log!Real!GDP!Per!Capita!US!dollars!
!
Total!natural!resources!rents!
!
Level!of!democracy!
!
Level!of!democracy!squared!
!
Log!of!population!
!
Year!
!
Constant!
!
Observations!
NonAviolent!antiAgovernment!
behavior!
General!strikes!
A0.022!
(0.039)!
0.008!
(0.005)!
'
A0.003!
(0.067)!
0.090!
(0.058)!
'
A0.590***!
(0.092)!
A0.041*!
(0.020)!
0.086!
(0.093)!
0.001!
(0.013)!
A0.351***!
(0.094)!
0.032***!
(0.006)!
0.326***!
(0.059)!
A0.063***!
(0.016)!
123.789***!
(30.978)!
1,344!
AntiAgovernment!
demonstrations!
0.031!
(0.030)!
0.015*!
(0.006)!
'
A0.062!
(0.051)!
A0.005!
(0.049)!
'
A0.173*!
(0.079)!
0.017!
(0.013)!
0.090!
(0.079)!
A0.015*!
(0.008)!
0.028!
(0.081)!
0.002!
(0.005)!
0.403***!
(0.052)!
A0.016!
(0.016)!
30.028!
(31.091)!
1,344!
Violent!antiAgovernment!behavior!
!
Assassinations!
Coups!
Civil!war!incidence!!
Civil!war!onset!!
Civil!war!severity!!
0.078!
(0.059)!
A0.006!
(0.007)!
'
0.015!
(0.076)!
A0.041!
(0.071)!
'
A0.735***!
(0.111)!
A0.110***!
(0.023)!
A0.005!
(0.105)!
A0.010!
(0.013)!
0.860*!
(0.353)!
A0.031!
(0.017)!
0.639***!
(0.075)!
0.001!
(0.019)!
A8.271!
(38.056)!
1,344!
0.024!
(0.030)!
0.003!
(0.003)!
'
0.026!
(0.044)!
0.001!
(0.053)!
'
A0.497***!
(0.090)!
A0.029!
(0.018)!
A0.213*!
(0.090)!
A0.006!
(0.009)!
A0.118!
(0.080)!
0.009!
(0.005)!
0.413***!
(0.083)!
0.020!
(0.016)!
A40.070!
(31.425)!
1,344!
A0.079!
(0.045)!
A0.009!
(0.006)!
'
A0.034!
(0.059)!
0.158*!
(0.062)!
'
A0.590***!
(0.100)!
A0.038*!
(0.017)!
A0.335***!
(0.089)!
A0.027*!
(0.012)!
A0.232**!
(0.088)!
0.017**!
(0.005)!
0.570***!
(0.065)!
A0.121*!
(0.049)!
1.812*!
(0.717)!
1,344!
0.083!
(0.115)!
A0.038*!
(0.019)!
'
A0.303*!
(0.146)!
0.540***!
(0.136)!
'
A0.195!
(0.161)!
A0.061**!
(0.023)!
A0.399*!
(0.170)!
0.030!
(0.017)!
0.141!
(0.196)!
A0.003!
(0.011)!
0.662***!
(0.117)!
0.004!
(0.021)!
A2.842!
(1.705)!
1,344!
A0.090*!
(0.045)!
A0.007!
(0.006)!
'
A0.006!
(0.060)!
0.143*!
(0.057)!
'
A0.518***!
(0.092)!
A0.019!
(0.018)!
A0.396***!
(0.088)!
A0.028*!
(0.013)!
A0.257**!
(0.089)!
0.019***!
(0.005)!
0.470***!
(0.056)!
A0.127**!
(0.048)!
!
!
1,344!
Robust!standard!errors!in!parentheses,!two!tailed!tests!***!p<0.001,!**!p<0.01,!*!p<0.05.!Note!peace!years!and!cubic!splines!used!for!civil!war!models.!
!
42!
0
Change in Frequency
20 40 60 80
100 120
Figure 1: Frequency of general strikes by non-linear change in political repression
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4 -3 -2 -1
0
1
2
Change in political repression
3
4
5
6
0
Change in Frequency
20 40 60 80 100 120
Figure 2: Frequency of anti-government demonstrations by non-linear change in political repression
-9
!
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4 -3 -2 -1
0
1
2
Change in political repression
3
4
5
6
43!
0
Change in Frequency
.25
.5
.75
1
Figure 3: Frequency of coups by non-linear change in political repression
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1
0
1
2
Change in violation of political rights
3
4
5
6
0
Change in Frequency
.25
.5
.75
1
Figure 4: Change in probability of civil war incidence by non-linear change in political repression
-9
!
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4 -3 -2 -1
0
1
2
Change in political repression
3
4
5
6
44!
0
Change in Probability
.25
.5
.75
1
Figure 5: Probability of minor civil war by non-linear change in political repression
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4 -3 -2 -1
0
1
2
Change in political repression
3
4
5
6
5
6
0
Change in Probability
.25
.5
.75
1
Figure 6: Probability of major civil war by non-linear change in political repression
-9
!
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4 -3 -2 -1
0
1
2
Change in political repression
3
4
45!
0
.5
Change in Frequency
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Figure 7: Frequency of general strikes by non-linear change in violent repression
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Change in violent repression
3
4
5
0
5
Change in Frequency
10
15
20
25
30
Figure 8: Frequency of anti-government demonstrations by non-linear change in violent repression
-6
!
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Change in violent repression
3
4
5
46!
0
.25
.5
Change in Frequency
.75
1
Figure 9: Frequency of coups by non-linear change in violent repression
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Change in violent government repression
3
4
5
0
Change in Frequency
.25
.5
.75
1
Figure 10: Change in probability of civil war incidence by non-linear change in violent repression
-6
!
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Change in violent repression
3
4
5
47!
0
Change in Frequency
.25
.5
.75
1
Figure 11: Change in probability of civil war onset by non-linear change in violent repression
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Change in violent repression
3
4
5
4
5
0
Change in Probability
.25
.5
.75
1
Figure 12: Probability of minor civil war by non-linear change in violent repression
-6
!
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Change in violent repression
3
48!
0
Change in Probability
.25
.5
.75
1
Figure 13: Probability of major civil war by non-linear change in violent repression
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Change in violent repression
3
4
5
!
0
Change in Frequency
1
2
3
Figure 14: General Strikes by change in political and violent repression
-10
-5
0
5
Government use of both political and violent repression
10
!
!
49!
0
1
2
Change in Frequency
3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10
Figure 15: Anti-Govt Demonstrations By change in political and violent repression
-10
-5
0
5
Government use of both political and violent repression
10
0
Change in Frequency
2
4
6
8
Figure 16: coups by change in political and violent repression
-16
!
!
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Government use of both political and violent repression
25
!
50!