2008
RAND Middle East
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The Middle East and Global Security
How Terrorist
Groups End
Talking to the
Enemy
Lessons for Countering al
Qa’ida
Track Two Diplomacy
in the Middle East and
South Asia
Seth G. Jones and Martin C.
Libicki
“[This book] is a solid piece of research.
It is extremely well written and insightful, and its conclusions should strongly
influence U.S. counterterrorism policy.”
Daniel L. Byman, director of the Security Studies Program
at Georgetown University and senior fellow with the Saban
Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution
All terrorist groups eventually end. But how do they end?
By analyzing 648 different terrorist groups that existed
between 1968 and 2006, this fascinating volume reveals
that most groups have ended because they joined the
political process or because local police and intelligence
agencies arrested or killed key members. Military force
has rarely been the primary reason for the end of terrorist groups, and few groups within this time frame have
achieved victory. This has significant implications for dealing with al Qa’ida and suggests fundamentally rethinking
post-9/11 U.S. counterterrorism strategy: Policymakers
need to understand where to prioritize their efforts with
limited resources and attention.
The authors’ review shows that religious terrorist groups
take longer to eliminate than other groups and rarely
achieve their objectives. Perhaps not surprisingly, the largest groups achieve their goals more often and last longer
than the smallest ones do. Finally, groups from upperincome countries are more likely to be left-wing or nationalist and less likely to have religion as their motivation.
Dalia Dassa Kaye
“This excellent study is the new starting
point for anyone interested in track two
diplomacy and its role in advancing
regional security and mitigating conflict. Dr. Kaye provides us
with the most comprehensive overview of track two activities in
the Middle East and South Asia to date, discussing the principal elements that compose a successful track two program while
also delivering a cleared-eyed perspective on the limitations of
nonofficial diplomacy. This is a study to be devoured by students
of international diplomacy, the Middle East, and South Asia, as
well as governments and private foundations interested in reporting track two efforts.”
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Violence and mistrust often prevent direct, open communication among long-standing adversaries. Increasingly, unofficial policy discussions, often called track two
diplomacy, are important parts of the changing international security landscape. But what has been the payoff?
Do these dialogues affect adversarial relationships and,
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diplomacy?
The authors conclude that policing and intelligence, rather
than military force, should form the backbone of U.S.
efforts against al Qa’ida. And U.S. policymakers should
end the use of the phrase “war on terrorism,” since there
is no battlefield solution to defeating al Qa’ida.
This book examines regional security track two efforts
in the Middle East and South Asia, considering the roles
as well as the limits of such processes, and offers ways in
which project organizers and funding organizations might
measure the effectiveness of these efforts. Such assessments can not only provide a better understanding of what
these types of dialogues have or have not accomplished in
the past, but can also provide a framework for conducting track two diplomacy in the future. The book’s lessons
apply not only to the Middle East and South Asia but also
to other regions struggling to resolve long-standing adversarial relationships.
Contents
Contents
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Terr o ri s m & a l - Qa e d a
In their Own
Words
Voices of Jihad:
Compilation and
Commentary
David Aaron
“A revealing exposure of the appalling views of the fanatical jihadists—
which also correctly notes the important fact that these views represent only a small but dangerous
minority of Muslems.”
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Former U.S. National Security Advisor
(1977-1981)
Beyond al-Qaeda
Part 1, The Global
Jihadist Movement
Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk, Kim
Cragin, Sara A. Daly, Heather
S. Gregg, Theodore W. Karasik, Kevin A. O’Brien, William
Rosenau
This monograph examines alQaeda’s evolution and the emergence of the broader global jihadist movement—groups
affiliated, associated, or inspired by al-Qaeda—and the
threat that they pose to the United States and U.S. allies
and interests.
Contents
This book provides a self-portrait of the Jihadi movement.
It presents the actual statements and writings of jihadis
expressing their views on virtually every subject relevant
to their cause. It is not about Islam as it is practiced in
its many varieties in Muslim communities throughout
the world, nor is it about Islamic fundamentalism or the
various Islamist political movements. Rather, it is about a
small but critical group of Muslims who carry out and promote terrorism in the name of Islam. Because the jihadis’
statements often have more impact and are more profoundly revealing than the accounts that have been written
about jihadi terrorism, this book provides unfiltered access
to a broad range of the stories, rationales, ideas, and arguments of jihadi terrorists and those who support them.
Introductory and contextual material is also included, to
provide the background and origins of what the jihadis are
saying—to each other and to the world. It is hoped that
this will provide greater insights into the motives, plans,
and participants in jihadi terrorism, as well as the nature
of the threat they pose. Not all of the quotations are from
prominent jihadis. Some have been selected because they
are representative, others because they are contradictory,
and still others because they provide a unique insight into
the jihadi mentality.
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Beyond al-Qaeda
Part 2, The Outer Rings
of the Terrorist Universe
Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk, Kim
Cragin, Sara A. Daly, Heather
S. Gregg, Theodore W. Karasik, Kevin A. O’Brien, William
Rosenau
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that, while not formally allied
with al-Qaeda, could pose a threat to Americans now or
in the future and to the security of our friends and allies.
The authors show how terrorists use criminal organizations and connections to finance their activities, and they
identify distinct strategies to neutralize or mitigate these
threats.
CONSIDER FOR COURSES IN:
Contents
Contents
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Development & Iraq
Women and
Nation-Building
Cheryl Benard, Seth G. Jones,
Olga Oliker, Cathryn Quantic
Thurston, Brooke K. Stearns,
Kristen Cordell
This book examines gender-specific
impacts of conflict and post-conflict and the ways in which events
in these contexts may affect women differently than they
affect men. It analyzes the roles of women in the nationbuilding process and considers outcomes that might occur
if current practices were modified. The recent nationbuilding activities in Afghanistan are used as a case study.
Despite the difficulty of collecting data in conflict zones,
the information available from Afghanistan provides several pragmatic points for consideration. Gender issues have
been overtly on the table from the beginning of U.S. postconflict involvement in Afghanistan, in part because of the
Taliban’s equally overt prior emphasis on gender issues as
a defining quality of its regime. Also, the issue of women’s
inclusion is an official part of Afghanistan’s development
agenda, so all the active agents in the nation-building
enterprise have made conscious choices and decisions that
can be reviewed and their underlying logic evaluated.
The authors conclude with a broad set of analytic and
policy recommendations. First, they make specific suggestions for improving the data-collection process. Then,
they recommend three shifts in emphasis to strengthen
the prospects of stability and enhance the outcomes of
nation-building programs: a more genuine emphasis on
the broader concept of human security from the earliest
phases of the nation-building effort; a focus on establishing governance based on principles of equity and consistent rule of law; and economic inclusion of women in the
earliest stages of reconstruction activities.
Contents
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After Saddam
Prewar Planning and the
Occupation of Iraq
Nora Bensahel, Olga Oliker,
Keith Crane, Richard R. Brennan,
Jr., Heather S. Gregg, Thomas
Sullivan, and Andrew Rathmell
The authors examine prewar planning efforts for postwar Iraq, as
well as role of U.S. military forces
and civilian efforts after major combat officially ended,
concluding that the U.S. government was unprepared for
the challenges of postwar Iraq.
Contents
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U.S. Policy
Options for Iraq
A Reassessment
Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Audra
K. Grant, Terrence K. Kelly, Andrew Rathmell, David Brannan
Iraq is the most pressing national
security issue facing the United
States today. This book evaluates the costs and benefits of five
alternative strategies the United States could pursue in
Iraq. The authors state that, as long as the United States
remains in Iraq, policy actions must focus on improving
the security of Iraq’s population by reducing violence.
They offer recommendations for ways in which U.S.
political, security, and economic policies in Iraq could be
better geared to support this goal. If the United States
decides to withdraw from Iraq, then it needs to prepare
now to mitigate the effects of failure.
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Palestine & Qatar
Building a
Successful
Palestinian State
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EFDBEFPGJOEFQFOEFODFAlthough the future of a
Palestinian-Israeli peace settlement remains unresolved,
many of the actions proposed by this study can get
underway now to pave the way for a future state.
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Education for a
New Era
Design and
Implementation of K–12
Education Reform in
Qatar
Dominic J. Brewer, Catherine H.
Augustine, Gail L. Zellman, Gery
Ryan, Charles A. Goldman, Cathleen Stasz, Louay Constant
The leadership of Qatar has a social and political vision
that calls for improving the outcomes of the Qatari K–12
education system. With this vision in mind, the leadership
asked R AND to examine Qatar’s K–12 education system,
to recommend options for building a world-class system,
and, subsequently, to develop the chosen option and
support its implementation. The option that was selected
includes internationally benchmarked curriculum standards, national testing based on those standards, independent government-funded schools, and parental choice
among schools using annual school report cards.
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The Arc
A Formal Structure for a
Palestinian State
Doug Suisman, Steven N. Simon,
Glenn E. Robinson, C. Ross Anthony, Michael Schoenbaum
Winner: 2006 Institute Honor
for Regional and Urban Design,
American Institute of Architects
Post-Secondary
Education in Qatar
Employer Demand, School
Choice, and Options for
Policy
Cathleen Stasz, Francisco Martorell, Eric R. Eide
This book presents an elegant solution to the physical
infrastructure for a new Palestinian state, centered on a
modern, high-speed transportation infrastructure incorporating interurban rail, water, energy, telecommunications, and park space. The authors examined a range of
approaches to constructing the backbone of infrastructure
that all states need, in the context of a large and rapidly
growing Palestinian population. This backbone accommodates substantial population growth by linking existing
urban centers to new neighborhoods. It is plausible that
the key aspects of this design can be pursued, with great
benefit, before an independent state is established.
Qatar’s Supreme Education Council
asked R AND to conduct a one-year
study to assess whether the current post-secondary educational opportunities in Qatar are aligned with the nation’s
social and economic goals, and to help articulate priorities
for developing post-secondary educational opportunities,
either in Qatar or through financed study abroad. The
study determined that occupational demands are in the
professional, technical, and sales and service occupations
for men, and in the professional and clerical occupations
for women. Overall, the pattern of demand favors individuals with some post-secondary education. However, education and career choices, especially for men, are somewhat
misaligned with demand.
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The Wider Muslim World
More Freedom,
Less Terror?
Liberalization and
Political Violence in the
Arab World
Dalia Dassa Kaye, Frederic Wehrey, Audra K. Grant, Dale Stahl
“This important and timely book
does more to empirically examine the
relationship between democratic change and political violence
in the Arab world than anything else I have seen. Its insightful and intelligent analysis is admirably free of any apparent
political or theoretical bias. The case studies make for particularly absorbing reading and add a great deal to our understanding of each country, as well as to our grasp of the broader
theoretical and policy issues surrounding this debate.”
Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution and
Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford
University
A key tenet of U.S. foreign policy— from 9/11 at least
through the U.S. invasion of Iraq—has been that promoting democracy in the Arab world is an important strategy
in reducing terrorism. At the same time, however, some
experts have held that democracy has nothing to do with
terrorism—or even that the growth of democracy in the
Middle East may exacerbate political violence.
This book examines whether a link between terrorism and
democracy exists, by exploring the effects of liberalization
processes on political violence in Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain,
Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Morocco from 1991 to 2006.
The authors discover that political reforms have, in some
instances, helped to marginalize and undercut extremist actors, but that these effects tend to be short-lived if
reforms fail to produce tangible results. Crucially, when
regimes backtrack on even limited openings, the risks of
instability and violence increase.
This work should be of value to members of security
policy communities, experts focusing specifically on the
Middle East, students of international affairs, and the nongovernmental research and policy communities.
Contents
Summary “Democracy” and Terrorism in the Arab World: A FrameXPSLGPS"OBMZTJTt&HZQUt+PSEBOt#BISBJOt4BVEJ"SBCJBt
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Building
Moderate Muslim
Networks
Angel Rabasa, Cheryl Benard,
Lowell H. Schwartz, Peter Sickle
The authors develop a “road map”
for the construction of moderate and liberal Muslim networks,
based on lessons from U.S. Cold
War efforts to foster networks of people committed to
free and democratic ideas, in order to counter radical and
dogmatic Islamist networks.
Contents
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The Muslim World
After 9/11
Angel M. Rabasa, Cheryl Benard,
Peter Chalk, C. Christine Fair,
Theodore Karasik, Rollie Lal, Ian
Lesser, David Thaler
Momentous events since September 11, 2001—Operation Enduring Freedom, the global war on
terrorism, and the war in Iraq—
have dramatically altered the political environment of the
Muslim world. This book examines the major dynamics
that drive changes in the religio-political landscape and
draws the implications of these trends for global security
and U.S. and Western interests. The authors present a
typology of ideological tendencies; identify the factors
that produce religious extremism and violence; assess key
cleavages along sectarian, ethnic, regional, and national
lines; and identify possible strategies and military options
for the United States to pursue in this critical and volatile
part of the world.
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Additional Titles on the Middle East
Iran’s Political, Demographic, and
Economic Vulnerabilities
Pacification in Algeria, 1956—1958
Keith Crane, Rollie Lal, and Jeffrey Martini
Originally published in 1963 and featuring a new foreword
by Bruce Hoffman, this account of the author’s successful
command in the Algerian war for independence presents a
striking parallel to present-day counterinsurgency operations.
Iran is one of the United States’ most important foreign
policy concerns and an extraordinarily difficult country
with which to engage. This monograph assesses current
political, ethnic, demographic, and economic trends and
vulnerabilities in Iran.
David Galula
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Ungoverned Territories
RAND Alternative Strategy Initiative
Understanding and Reducing Terrorism Risks
A Conference on Creative Use of the Media for Understanding
and Tolerance
Angel Rabasa, Steven Boraz, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Theodore W.
Karasik , Jennifer D .P. Moroney, Kevin A. O’Brien, John E. Peters
Cheryl Benard and Edward O’ Connell
Examines the sources and types of ungoverned territories
and the security challenges that they present and proposes
mitigating strategies.
The conference on “Creative Use of the Media for Understanding and Tolerance” took place in Doha, Qatar, from
March 14 to March 16, 2007 and is available on this
DVD— the first time R AND has presented its research in
documentary format.
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Future U.S. Security Relationships with
Iraq and Afghanistan
U.S. Air Force Roles
The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey
Angel Rabasa, F. Stephen Larrabee
In Turkey, an Islamic ruling party operates within a framework of strict secularism. This describes the controversy
over the boundaries of secularity and religion in Turkey
and how the balance between these forces has changed
over the past decade.
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Turkey as a U.S. Security Partner
F. Stephen Larrabee
Strains in U.S.-Turkish have grown since the end of the
Cold War. Divergences have been particularly visible in
policy toward the Middle East. As a result, Turkey is likely
to be an increasingly difficult and less predictable partner
in the future.
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David E. Thaler, Theodore W. Karasik, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Jennifer D.
P. Moroney, Frederic Wehrey, Obaid Younossi, Farhana Ali, Robert A.
Guffey
Examines potential long-term U.S. security relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan in a regional context and
assesses the role of U.S. forces, especially the Air Force, in
supporting these relationships under a variety of contingencies.
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Facing Human Capital Challenges of the
21st Century
Education and -BCPS.BSLFU*OJUJBUJWFTJO-FCBOPO0NBO2BUBSBOEUIF6OJUFE
"SBC&NJSBUFT
Gabriella Gonzalez, Lynn A. Karoly, Louay Constant, Hanine Salem,
Charles A. Goldman
Describes education and labor market initiatives implemented or under way in Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, and
the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to address the human
resource issues each country faces preparing for a place in
the 21st century global economy.
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