Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 Agenda Item No_______11______ BUDGET MONITORING 2010/11 – PERIOD 9 Summary: This report presents the budget monitoring position for the revenue account and capital programme to the end of December 2010. Conclusions: The overall position at the end of December 2010 is showing an underspend for the current financial year of £148,285. The overall position will continue to be monitored over the remaining periods of the current financial year. Recommendations: It is recommended that: 1) Cabinet note the contents of the report and the revenue account forecast for the current financial year; 2) Cabinet approve the virement in relation to public conveniences as detailed within section 3.2 (Resources) of the report; 3) That Cabinet note the current position on the 2010/11 capital programme. Cabinet member(s): Ward(s) affected: All All Karen Sly, Financial Services Manager, 01263 516243, Karen.sly@north-norfolk.gov.uk Contact Officer, telephone number, and e-mail: 1. Introduction 1.1 This report compares the actual income and expenditure at the end of period 9 which ended on 31 December 2010 to the 2010/11 revised budget as reported to Cabinet on 29 November and approved by Full Council on 14 December 2010. 1.2 There will be a final budget monitoring report for the current financial year for the position as at the end of January 2011. This will be reported to Cabinet and Overview and Scrutiny in March and April. The overall position will continued to be monitored to ensure that the revised budget remains achievable and where necessary and applicable any actions are taken to achieve this. 1.3 A revised capital programme for the period 2010/11 to 2013/14 is included within the 2011/12 Budget Report which is also on this agenda. The latest budget monitoring for schemes within the current capital programme is included in this budget monitoring report at section 7 but to avoid any duplication details of any scheme slippage to future financial years has been included in the Budget Report. 2. Background Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 2.1 Budget monitoring is carried out on a monthly basis with service managers and those officers with budget responsibility. The detail within this report highlights the more significant variances against the profiled budget to date along with those which are expected to have a year end variance and also where applicable to recommend action to be taken to ensure that the overall budget remains achievable. 2.2 As outlined at 1.1 the budget has been revised during the year and was approved by Full Council in December. The revision of the budget part way through the year allows for the individual budgets to be updated to take account of the latest position and also to reflect variances previously reported and allows for proactive measures to be taken where necessary to maintain a balanced budget position for the year. 3. Budget Monitoring Position – Revenue Services 3.1 The General Fund summary (Appendix K) shows the overall position at the end of period 9 and is currently showing a year to date variance of £975,177. There are however commitments which represent orders placed but not delivered of £637,897 still to be taken into account leaving a net position of £337,280. Further details on each of the service areas are included within Appendix L. 3.2 The following tables provide details of the more significant variances, along with those which are anticipated to have a full year effect for each of the five main service areas. Some services that are predicting a full year underspend have made a request to carry underspend forward to the new financial year. All requests to carry forward year end underspends will be considered as part of the final accounts process, once the overall financial position for the year is known. Community Development Control – Of the variance to date £13,619 relates to additional income from planning fees above the profiled budget, this is currently expected to result in a full year effect of £15,000. Planning Policy – The main reason for variance to date is that the Planning Inspectorate has not yet billed the Council for the LDF examination fees. These are being funded from the Housing and Planning Delivery Grant (HPDG) earmarked reserve. Although the actual costs are expected to be less than originally budgeted, this will leave an unallocated balance of £50,000 within the HPDG earmarked reserve. Adoption costs of the LDF of £20,000 were budgeted in the current year, again to be funded from the earmarked reserve. These are not now planned to be Over/(Under) spending to date £ (17,665) (52,747) Estimated full year effect Performance Indicator at Period 9 where applicable £ (15,000) 1,077 applications have been received to P9 in the current year compared with 930 for the same period in 2009/10 0 Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 incurred until the new financial year and therefore will require the budget to be rolled forward at the year end. General Economic Development – The variance to date is due to a number of delays in scheduled work due to restructuring of public sector partnership providers. It is not currently anticipated that there will be a full year effect. Coastal Pathfinder – This represents an underspend on the project to date, any year end underspend will be carried forward to fund the projects as per the plan. Strategic Housing – This service includes the VAT shelter receipt which is then transferred to the capital projects reserve to fund the housing capital programme. The revised budget assumed £604,000 would be received in the year, the latest projections received from the housing trust suggest that the actual will be £60,250 less, this will be adjusted for by movements to and from the capital projects reserve. There is anticipated to be an underspend of £45,000 on expenditure being funded from the homelessness prevention grant, and a request will be made to carry this forward at the year end. Local Land Charges – Of the variance to date £8,480 relates to turnover savings due to a vacant post not yet filled. This will result in a full year underspend but this has been reduced slightly from additional County Council Search fees. There will be additional income in the year from search fees chargeable, however due to the land charge service being run on a cost recovery basis it will prudent to earmark this for future deficits. This will be monitored over the coming months and the final position for the year considered as part of the final accounts report. Transport – The variance to date is made up of a number of smaller underspends including reimbursement to bus operators and costs for the card management system. The full year underspend relates to a creditor that was entered for 2009/10 that is no longer required. Sub Total Community Environment Environmental Health Service Management – (61,134) 0 (391,049) 0 8,377 0 (14,737) (8,000) (12,481) (5,000) (541,436) (28,000) Over/(Under) spending to date Estimated full year effect £ (18,548) £ 0 Performance Indicator at Period 9 where applicable Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 Of the variance to date £5,068 relates to an underspend on training for which some invoices have not yet been received and other training needs have been identified and will delivered before the end of the year. The remaining variance relates to a number of smaller variances to date. Parks and Open Spaces – Within the variance to date there is an underspend on grounds maintenance for which £10,000 will be used to fund the emergency remedial tree works referred to in Woodlands Management below. Leisure Complexes – The underspend to date reflects repairs and maintenance work not yet invoiced for £4,068, the balance however does represent a projected full year underspend. Other Sports – The variance to date consists of a number of smaller variances including income for the walking project and free swimming initiative grant still to be offset by expenditure. The full year effect reflects additional contributions made in the year, these have been partly offset by additional income from the mobile gym. Pier Pavillion – No further repairs planned at the Pier Theatre in this financial year. Woodlands Management – The variance to date and full year effect reflects emergency oneoff tree repairs required as a result of Health and Safety inspections. Cromer Pier - No further minor repairs and maintenance are planned for the pier this financial year, however it is expected that any underspend on repair in the year will be requested to be rolled forward at the year end to fund repairs in 2011/12. Public Conveniences – The main reason for the variance to date is due to invoices from the contractor not yet received and therefore paid. There is expected to be an overspend in relation to repairs and maintenance. This has been partly offset by a business rates refund and the balance of £16,885 can be funded by a virement from foreshore properties and admin buildings for which approval is sought within this report. Waste Collection and Disposal – Of the variance to date the majority relates to outstanding invoices not yet received from the contractor for contract fees and Norfolk County Council for waste disposal and therefore not processed for payment. The full year effect is made up of additional profit share income of £112,000 due to an increase in the price of (6,709) (10,000) (11,233) (5,000) (6,042) 4,500 (4,124) (5,500) 14,510 10,875 (14,879) 0 (24,721) 0 (107,542) (82,000) Recycling rate for all recyclables 46.15%*, target 47.5%. (* Actual at end of Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 November 2010) recycling materials sold, £5,000 for processing of street sweepings and £15,000 for recycling initiatives not required in the year. These have been offset by a variance on contract payments of £30,000 and reduced income from recycling credits mainly due to a lower tonnage of glass recyclable material of £20,000. Cleansing – The variance to date reflects contractor invoices outstanding. (63,832) 0 Environmental Strategy – This service includes costs for the green travel plan of £3,000, carbon reduction revenue initiatives of £40,000 both being funded from earmarked reserves in the current year. The service also includes costs for a number of projects totaling £22,500 being funded from an area based grant received in 2009/10. These projects include a Global Action Plan to support individuals in their homes for energy saving initiatives. A number of the carbon reduction projects are planned to be delivered within the next four years and therefore will require slipping to future financial years. Of the remaining current year costs there is anticipated to be a full year underspend in the region of £20,000 for which a request will be made at the year end to roll this forward to the new financial year. 2,900 0 Civil Contingencies – Of the variance to date £9,909 relates to an underspend on employee related costs due to a current vacant post and training not yet undertaken. This is expected to result in a full year underspend of £18,000. Of the remaining underspend to date £4,262 relates to outstanding invoices not yet received. Sub Total Environment (20,847) (18,000) (261,067) (105,125) Over/(Under) spending to date Estimated full year effect £ (25,546) £ (8,000) 15,706 10,000 Information IT – Support Services – The underspend to date includes £11,777 for computer hardware leased and purchased but not yet invoiced, £5,922 for staff training not yet undertaken and £7,559 for telephone rental and call costs, this is anticipated to give a full year saving of £8,000. TICs – Salaries and oncosts for holiday pay entitlement. Performance Indicator at Period 9 where applicable Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 Registration Services – Of the variance to date £6,644 relates to postage costs for which most is recoverable. The full year effect relates to additional employee costs for by-elections and parish polls which are not rechargeable. Members Services – The underspend to date is made up of a number of variances including an underspend on computer hardware purchases of £4,900, Members traveling allowances of £4,598 and basic allowances of £2,775. Overall these are anticipated to result in a year end underspend of £6,000. Graphical Information System –GIS development work was budgeted for within the revenue account in the year, this is now being funded as a one-off from the BPR capital project. Media and Communications – Following a restructure within the team there is a net overspend in the year, this will be funded from the Restructuring Reserve. Sub Total - Information Resources Car Parking – Of the variance to date there is an underspend on expenditure of £37,445 of which £29,702 relates to invoices not yet received and processed for payment for the management and cleansing contracts. There is an unfavourable variance on income of £29,382 mainly due to an 8.6% (£26,856) reduction in pay and display income during the third quarter of the year compared to the previous year and also £4,578 shortfall from excess charge income. Based on the actuals to date and trends shown in previous years it is anticipated that there will be a full year shortfall on income in the region of £64,000. Industrial Estates – The variance to date and full year effect reflects the impact of the collection of previous years arrears in excess of debtor provisions made. Benefits – The variance to date reflects bad debts charged to the service, it is not currently envisaged that this will result in a full year effect. 5,525 2,160 (16,040) (6,000) (6,744) (10,000) (6,163) 6,000 (33,262) (5,840) Over/(Under) spending to date Estimated full year effect £ (8,063) £ 64,000 (5,024) (5,150) 18,604 0 Performance Indicator at Period 9 where applicable Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 (39,075) (33,500) (15,804) 9,530 (670) 6,300 (50,032) 41,180 Over/(Under) spending to date Estimated full year effect Personnel and Payroll Support Services – Of the underspend to date £8,062 relates to relocation and interview expenses not incurred. Taking into account minimal external adverting and appointments being made, it is expected that this will result in a full year saving of £10,500. The remaining variance for the current year relates mainly to the common training budget which is showing an underspend of £35,378. This does include £12,000 for Members induction and subsequent training and will be requested to be carried forward at the year end for the training to be delivered after the May 2011 elections. Taking this into account still gives a predicted underspend of £23,000 in the current year. Administration Buildings – Of the variance £23,711 relates to outstanding invoices in relation to the cleansing contract. There is an overspend of £9,530 for electricity at Fakenham Connect, this is due to previous estimated readings being too low, mainly in relation to the CCTV control room. Actual readings are now being taken on a regular basis. Property Services – The full year overspend relates to work required identified from the legionella survey. Sub Total Resources Supporting Communities Active Communities – Expenditure not yet incurred on the North Norfolk Youth Voice. Community Safety – External grants received for which the expenditure is yet to be incurred in the current year. CCTV – There are outstanding commitments for replacement cameras and screens for the control room. Sub Total Supporting Communities £ (13,524) Performanc e Indicator at Period 9 where applicable £ 0 (19,223) 0 (20,010) 0 (52,757) 0 4. Budget Monitoring Position – Savings 2010/11 4.1 The following table provides details of the savings included in the 2010/11 revised budget along with an updated forecast for the current year. Where a variance is shown, comments on these was provided within section 3 of the report. Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 Service Area Workstream 1 – Management Structures Environmental Health Planning and Building Control Sub Total of Workstream 1 Savings Workstream 2 - 6% Savings: Environmental Health Strategic Housing Leisure and Cultural Services ICT Economic and Tourism Development Finance and Exchequer Services Organisational Development Legal and Democratic Services Sub Total of Workstream 2 Savings Additional income from Corporate Asset Management – Car Parks and Rent Reviews Total Savings/ Income from Workstream 2 Total Savings/ Income 2010/11 Revised Budget £ 2010/11 Variance Forecast £ £ 75,000 121,733 196,733 75,000 121,733 196,733 0 0 0 25,410 32,910 24,682 30,000 30,291 29,400 1,000 15,000 188,693 22,678 25,410 32,910 24,682 30,000 30,291 29,400 1,000 15,000 188,693 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22,678 211,371 408,104 188,693 385,426 22,678 22,678 4.2 The majority of the planned savings are still on target for the current year, the revised budget was updated where applicable, as detailed within section 3 above there is expected to be a shortfall from car parking income in the year. 5. Treasury Management Quarterly Report 5.1 Treasury Management in Local Government is governed by the CIPFA Code of Practice on Treasury Management which recommends that members should be informed of Treasury Management activities at least twice a year, but preferably quarterly. This report is in accordance with the Code and summarises the investment transactions which have taken place in the three months to December 2010. 5.2 The headline inflation rate, Consumer Price Inflation (CPI), rose to 3.7% year-on-year to December 2010, and the Bank of England in its November Quarterly Inflation Report showed it remaining above the 2% target throughout 2011. 5.3 The UK economy grew in the third calendar quarter of 2010 by 0.8%, twice as much as economists forecast, as the service and construction sectors helped sustain the recovery’s momentum. The annual growth rate increased to 2.8%. However, in the fourth quarter the economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.5%, rather than growing as had been forecasted by economists. The bad weather in December, and consequent disruption, contributed to the decline and without it the figure would have been flat at 0.0%. 5.4 The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the Bank Rate at 0.5% throughout the quarter, and although the MPC maintained Quantitative Easing (the process where the Bank of England buys assets from banks and other institutions to provide them with an injection of cash which is then lent out in the wider economy) at £200bn, minutes of the Committee’s meetings showed the MPC was clearly ready to resume asset purchases if the economy slowed faster than expected. Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 Table 1 below sets out key indicators economic relevant to treasury activities to the end of period 9. 2010 Table 1 Indicator March June September December 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% - Consumer Price Index 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.7% - Retail Prices Index 4.4% 5.0% 4.6% 4.8% % change on corresponding quarter previous year -0.2% 1.7% 2.8% 1.7% % change on previous quarter 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% -0.5% Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Public Sector Net Borrowing £29.7bn £39.2bn £32.9bn £46.3bn Public Sector Net Debt £772.2bn £814.9bn £842.3bn £889.1bn Net debt as a % of GDP 53.6% 55.7% 56.8% 59.3% Feb - Apr May - Jul - Number (000s) 2,475 2,467 2,502 - Rate 7.9% 7.8% 7.9% 196 204 202 6.6% 6.8% 6.7% Bank Base Rate Inflation Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDP) Public Sector Finances Aug - Oct Unemployment National Eastern Region - Number (000s) - Rate 5.5 Security of the capital sum remains the Council’s main investment objective. This was achieved by following the Council’s investment counterparty policy set out in its Treasury Management Strategy Statement for 2010/11. This restricted new investments to the following: Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 a. Deposits with UK Banks and Building Societies systemically important to the UK Banking System and which have minimum long-term ratings of ‘A+’ or equivalent from Fitch, Moody’s and S&P rating agencies. b. Deposits with select non-UK banks (Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland and the US). These countries, and the banks within them, have been selected after careful monitoring of: Credit Ratings (minimum long-term counterparty rating of A+) Credit Default Swaps GDP: Net debt as a percentage of GDP Sovereign Support Mechanisms and potential support from a well resourced parent institution Share Price c. AAA-rated Stable Net Asset value Money Market Funds d. Bonds issued by Multilateral Development Banks, such as the European Investment Bank. e. The Debt Management Office f. 5.6 Other Local Authorities Table 2 below sets out investment activity for the four month period. Table 2 5.7 a) Banks & Building Societies c) Balance Investments Investments Balance Increase/ 30/09/2010 Made Repaid 31/12/2010 (Decrease) £000s £000s £000s £000s £000s 13,000 7,000 (2,000) 18,000 5,000 Money Market Funds 5,075 14,290 (17,775) 1,590 3,485 d) Bonds 9,500 0 (3,000) 6,500 (3,000) e) The Debt Management Office 0 4,130 (4,130) 0 0 27,575 25,420 (26,905) 26,090 5,485 The revised budget for 2010/11 anticipates that £559,600 will be earned in interest from an average balance of £25.6m at 2.19%. The balance available for investment was anticipated to be much higher than the amount included in the original estimate, due to Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 slippage in the capital programme. The revised budget assumed that £4.6m of usable capital receipts and reserves would be applied to fund the capital programme. This figure is likely to reduce to £1.04m for the year and this, together with capital grants received in advance of incurring the expenditure, will contributed to a forecast higher balance available for investment of £26.1m. However, the interest rate achieved on investments will be lower than the figure in the revised budget and is now forecast to be 2.13%. This would result in a net reduction in interest of £5,500 against the revised budget. 5.8 Two of the Council’s Eurosterling bonds with a value of £3 million matured on 7 December 2010. The average yield on these bonds was 5.26%. If, when the bonds matured, the Council had replaced them with comparable bonds maturing in April 2014, the yield would have only been 2.06%. This was not considered to be a good return for the length of the investment and therefore no replacement bonds were purchased at that time. 5.9 The Council’s Treasury advisors, Arlingclose, gave a presentation to members at a Treasury Management Strategy Workshop in November 2010. One of the alternative investment options considered was the use of Fund Managers and specifically Pooled Investment Funds. These collective investment schemes are used by organisations to pool their funds together enabling them to participate in a much wider range of investments than would otherwise be possible individually, and to share the cost of doing so. 5.10 Two fund managers were discussed; Investec and Payden & Rygel. Investec offer 3 funds (Liquidity Fund, Short Dated Bond Fund and Target Return Fund) investing in different instruments with different degrees of risk which can produce higher, but more volatile returns. Investors can then choose from 3 different models (Conservative, Standard and Dynamic), which have holdings in the funds in different proportions. The Liquidity Fund and the Short Dated Bond Fund are both rated AAA. The Target Return Fund is not rated. Each model has its own target rate of return and carries a different degree of risk; the higher the potential for out performance of the target return, the higher the potential for risk and volatility in return. The standard Model for example has a target return of the 7-day LIBID rate plus 0.95% (7-day LIBID is around base rate – currently 0.5%), and requires an initial investment of £8 million. The model has produced a cumulative return of 1.05% in the six months to December 2010 but with some degree of volatility (0.00% in November, 0.3% in July). This is why investment in the fund would have to be regarded a long-term commitment of at least a year which gives the fund manager the opportunity to achieve the target return over a longer time scale. There would be an annual management fee of 0.25% of the sum invested to be deducted from the return. 5.11 The other fund considered was the Payden Sterling Reserve Fund. This fund only invests in high quality liquid instruments with an emphasis on security. The fund has a AAA credit rating and aims to deliver a return, net of fees, in excess of that available from bank deposits and money market funds. The benchmark return is 7-day LIBID and the management fee is 0.14% per annum of the sum invested. The fund is designed for investment periods of 3 to 6 months, although it would be more realistic to view it as a 1 year investment. The actual return on the fund since its inception in July 2010 to December 2010 is 0.55% after fees have been deducted, although it should be acknowledged that this performance is being assessed over a very short period. 5.12 An investment in the Investec models would be classified as a Specified Investment (as defined by the criteria set out in the CLG Investment Guidance) for the Liquidity Fund and the Short Dated Bond Fund. However, the Target Return Fund would be classified Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 as a Non-Specified investment (i.e. one that carries more risk than a Specified investment) as this fund does not have its own individual credit rating. The Payden Sterling Reserve Fund is classified as a Specified investment. 5.13 The Investec and Payden funds have advantages over term deposits. The investment is more liquid and can be repaid to the Council at any time (i.e. four business days after requesting repayment for the Invetec funds, or three business days in the case of the Payden fund) A term deposit cannot usually be repaid before its maturity date. Also, the investment is more diversified. The Council is spreading the counterparty risk over more counterparties than it could do with individual deposits, and it can access counterparties normally unavailable to it (due to the relatively small amount of funds the Council has available for investment). 5.14 The Payden fund is considered the best option for the Council. It will allow the Council to diversify its investments with the potential to achieve a better return than its term deposits, without having to commit £8 million for a much longer period required under the Investec fund. As a first step into this type of investment, the intention is to place £1 million in the Payden Sterling Reserve Fund when funds become available, and monitor the investment performance over the next twelve months. The investment would be allowed under the Council’s current Treasury Management Strategy which approves the use of such Collective Investment Schemes. 5.15 The Council can confirm that it complied with its Prudential Indicators for 2010/11 which had been set at Full Council on 24 February 2010. 6. Budget Monitoring Position – Summary 6.1 The following table provides a summary of the full year projections for the five main service areas along with an updated use of reserves figure Service Area Community Environment Estimated Full Year Effect £ (28,000) (105,125) Information (5,840) Resources 41,180 Supporting Communities Service Variance Total Contributions to/ (from) Reserves: General Fund Reserve Other Reserves Non Service Expenditure and Income Total Impact 0 (97,785) (6,000) 5,500 (98,285) 6.2 Overall the revenue position shows an underspend of £98,285. Any unallocated underspend would be transferred to the restructuring reserve at the year-end, to be used to fund one-off restructuring costs from 2011/12. The overall position will continue to be monitored over the coming weeks before the year-end. 6.3 A number of the savings in the current year identified in the report are anticipated to be one offs, for example where there has been delay in appointing to vacant posts, others Cabinet 14 February 2011 Overview and Scrutiny 18 February 2011 that are anticipated to deliver ongoing savings have already been factored into the budget for 2011/12 which is included on this agenda also. 7. Budget Monitoring Position – Capital 7.1 Members were provided with a copy of the revised capital programme as part of the 2010/11 Revised Budget report to Cabinet on the 29 November. In addition to this at the meeting, approval was also given to a further £30,000 virement from the unspent capital allocation for the Battle of Britain Hall scheme, into the Stalham Sports Hall Improvements project. 7.2 Appendix M shows the latest position against the current 2010/11 approved programme and provides details of expenditure up to the end of period 9, along with comments on the progress of individual schemes. 7.3 Further slippage of capital budgets into 2011/12 has been identified, although not included within this report. The additional slippage has been used to update future years budgets, and has been incorporated into the 2011/12 Base Budget report which is included elsewhere on this agenda. 8. Implications to the Council 8.1 The detail within section 3 of the report outlines the significant variances against the profiled budget to the end of period 9 for each of the five service areas and also those anticipated to have a variance at the year end. Overall the total of the projected service variances at the year-end is an underspend of £98,285, this is after allowing for the updated contributions to and from reserves. 8.2 The overall budget will continue to be monitored by officers and reported to Members on a regular basis. 9. Recommendations 9.1 It is recommended that: 1) Cabinet note the contents of the report and the revenue account forecast for the current financial year; 2) Cabinet approve the virement in relation to public conveniences as detailed within section 3.2 (Resources) of the report; 3) That Cabinet note the current position on the 2010/11 capital programme.