Planning Policy & Built Heritage Working Party Please Contact: Linda Yarham Please email: linda.yarham@north-norfolk.gov.uk Please Direct Dial on: 01263 516019 8 May 2014 A meeting of Planning Policy & Built Heritage Working Party will be held in the Council Chamber at the Council Offices, Holt Road, Cromer on Monday 19 May 2014 at 10.00am. At the discretion of the Chairman, a short break will be taken after the meeting has been running for approximately one and a half hours. Members of the public who wish to ask a question or speak on an agenda item are requested to arrive at least 15 minutes before the start of the meeting. It will not always be possible to accommodate requests after that time. This is to allow time for the Committee Chair to rearrange the order of items on the agenda for the convenience of members of the public. Further information on the procedure for public speaking can be obtained from Democratic Services, Tel: 01263 516010, Email: democraticservices@north-norfolk.gov.uk Sheila Oxtoby Chief Executive To: Mrs S Arnold, Mr M Baker, Mr B Cabbell Manners, Mr N Dixon, Mrs A Green, Mrs P Grove-Jones, Mr P High, Mr T Ivory, Miss B Palmer, Mr P Williams, Mr D Young All other Members of the Council for information. Members of the Management Team, appropriate Officers, Press and Public If you have any special requirements in order to attend this meeting, please let us know in advance If you would like any document in large print, audio, Braille, alternative format or in a different language please contact us Chief Executive: Sheila Oxtoby Corporate Directors: Nick Baker and Steve Blatch Tel 01263 513811 Fax 01263 515042 Minicom 01263 516005 Email districtcouncil@north-norfolk.gov.uk Web site northnorfolk.org AGENDA 1. APOLOGIES FOR ABSENCE To receive apologies for absence, if any. 2. PUBLIC QUESTIONS 3. MINUTES (attached – p.1) To approve as a correct record the Minutes of a meeting of the Working Party held on 23 September 2013 4. ITEMS OF URGENT BUSINESS To determine any other items of business which the Chairman decides should be considered as a matter of urgency pursuant to Section 100B(4)(b) of the Local Government Act 1972. 5. DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST Members are asked at this stage to declare any interests that they may have in any of the following items on the agenda. The Code of Conduct for Members requires that declarations include the nature of the interest and whether it is a disclosable pecuniary interest. 6. Housing Land Supply – Publication of Statement of Five Year Supply of Residential Development Land (attached - page 4) (Appendix A – page 9) 7. EXCLUSION OF PRESS AND PUBLIC To pass the following resolution (if necessary):“That under Section 100A(4) of the Local Government Act 1972 the press and public be excluded from the meeting for the following items of business on the grounds that they involve the likely disclosure of exempt information as defined in Part I of Schedule 12A (as amended) to the Act.” 8. TO CONSIDER ANY EXEMPT MATTERS ARISING FROM CONSIDERATION OF THE PUBLIC BUSINESS OF THE AGENDA 23 SEPTEMBER 2013 Minutes of a meeting of the PLANNING POLICY & BUILT HERITAGE WORKING PARTY held in the Council Chamber, Council Offices, Holt Road, Cromer at 10.00 am when there were present: Councillors B Cabbell Manners (Chairman) Mrs S A Arnold (Vice-Chairman) Mrs A R Green Mrs P Grove-Jones Miss B Palmer P W High P Williams D Young R Reynolds – observer Officers Mr M Ashwell – Planning Policy Manager Mr P Godwin – Conservation, Design and Landscape Manager (11) APOLOGIES FOR ABSENCE An apology for absence was received from Councillors N D Dixon and P W High. (12) MINUTES The Minutes of the meeting held on 24 June 2013 were approved as a correct record and signed by the Chairman. (13) ITEMS OF URGENT BUSINESS The Chairman stated that there were no items of urgent business which he wished to bring before the Working Party. For Members’ information, the Planning Policy Manager stated that it may be necessary to call an additional meeting to consider a Development Brief for the former HL Foods site at North Walsham in advance of consideration of a planning application for that site. Details would be forwarded in due course if necessary. (14) DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST No interests were declared. (15) WALSINGHAM CONSERVATION AREA APPRAISAL AND MANAGEMENT PROPOSALS The Working Party considered the Officer’s report which recommended that the Walsingham Conservation Area Appraisal and Management Proposals be adopted for statutory planning purposes and become a material consideration in the planning process. The Conservation, Design and Landscape Manager commended Martha Moore, Planning Officer, who had carried out the majority of the work on the Walsingham Planning Policy & Built Heritage Working Party 1 1 23 September 2013 Conservation Area Appraisal and Management Proposals, in conjunction with Paul Rhymes, Conservation and Design Officer. He also expressed his appreciation to the Walsingham Parish Council and Councillor T FitzPatrick, the local Member, for their involvement. The Conservation, Design and Landscape Manager stated that there was a need to review Conservation Areas from time to time to ensure that they were up to date, including reviewing their boundaries. To date, 22 of the 82 Conservation Areas had been reviewed and 9 documents had been adopted by the Council, mainly relating to the towns. Once adopted, the documents could be used to inform decisions on planning applications within the designated areas. The Conservation, Design and Landscape Manager stated that the management proposals were most important. Further controls could be considered at a later date, which would cost nothing except staff time in assessing whether or not they were required, (eg. Article 4 Direction). In Walsingham, many buildings were nationally listed but there were gaps between them where changes could be made under permitted development rights without further controls. It would be difficult to find funding to carry out public realm enhancement in the current economic climate, however some work could be done without investing a large amount of financial resources, merely by co-operating with other bodies such as Norfolk County Council. The Conservation, Design and Landscape Manager answered Members’ questions: Article 4 Directions had full legal status under the Planning legislation. Contravention of an Article 4 Direction could be subject to enforcement action. Any major enhancement of Friday Market Place would require substantial investment from this authority and Norfolk County Council. However, much of the surfacing in Walsingham was of a simple treatment and it might be possible to make improvements without spending large sums of money, in conjunction with Norfolk County Council (as part of an ongoing programme of maintenance). Friday Market Place did not currently host a market; however it was one of the two most important public spaces. Its main purpose was currently for use as a car park. This was a valid use, since management of Conservation Areas was not always about aesthetics, but how a place worked. Serious concerns had been expressed regarding the impact of traffic though, and it was necessary to get the balance right. The issue of buses entering the Friday Market Place and High Street was a very real one and needed to be addressed. Local listing alone would not prevent alterations being made to buildings, (eg. replacement windows). An Article 4 Direction would be required to remove permitted development rights. The report suggested that an Article 4 Direction could be made in respect of 3-5 Bridewell Street.. No additional land had been identified for car parking. There were some buildings around The Green at Great Walsingham which were not nationally listed. Additional points were raised by Members: The Pump should be put forward for national listing. It would be very difficult to restrict traffic in the High Street as there were a number of care homes which required access. Planning Policy & Built Heritage Working Party 2 2 23 September 2013 It was suggested that Article 4 Directions should be automatic when buildings were locally listed and removed if they were not necessary. It was proposed by Councillor P W High, seconded by Councillor Mrs S A Arnold and RESOLVED unanimously That Cabinet be recommended: 1. To adopt the Walsingham Conservation Area Appraisal and Management Proposals for statutory planning purposes and for it to be a ‘material consideration’ in the planning process. 2. To adopt the proposed boundary change as recommended in the Final Draft of the Appraisal document and that it be publicised in accordance with the Planning (Listed Buildings & Conservation Areas) Act 1990. 3. That the buildings identified for Local Listing be formally recognised and recorded. 4. That an Article 4 Direction be made in respect of 3-5 Bridewell Street, Little Walsingham. The meeting closed at 10.45 am. Planning Policy & Built Heritage Working Party 3 3 23 September 2013 Agenda item ___6___ PUBLIC BUSINESS – ITEM FOR DECISION Housing Land Supply – Publication of Statement of Five Year Supply of Residential Development Land. This report provides an overview of the amount of land which is available for housing development in the District, identifies how much of this land might reasonably be expected to be developed over the next five years and seeks authority to publish a statement of the Council’s position. 1. INTRODUCTION Each year the Council is required to publish a document which identifies the quantity of land in the District which is likely to be available for housing development over the next five years (Document attached as Appendix A). The number of dwellings assessed as likely to be built is then compared with the housing targets for the District in the adopted Core Strategy. Authorities should aim to retain a rolling five year supply of land, plus a contingency of between 5% and 20%, which is available and suitable for development with sufficient supply to ensure that housing targets can be met. The expectation is that through the preparation of Local Plans and the processing of planning applications the Authority should take a proactive role to ensure that an adequate supply of housing land is available at all times. In the absence of a five year supply the NPPF introduces a presumption in favour of sustainable development meaning that planning permission should be granted for sustainable residential development proposals until such time as the land supply position is corrected. This presumption in favour of sustainable development should be applied even in those circumstances where development would otherwise be contrary to adopted development plan policies. 2. REQUIREMENT - WHAT IS A FIVE YEAR REQUIREMENT FOR HOUSING IN NORTH NORFOLK? The baseline target for housing in North Norfolk is derived from the adopted Core Strategy which requires a minimum of 8,000 dwellings over a twenty year plan period or an average of at least 400 dwellings per year. To derive a five year requirement this annual average is multiplied by five years and is then subject to two further modifications. Firstly, it is necessary to make allowance for any under or over delivery in earlier years of the plan period and, secondly the NPPF requires that a buffer of either 5% or 20% is added to the target. Finally, the target to be provided is compared with likely future supply to produce a number of year’s of available supply. METHODOLOGY Baseline Target + Buffer (5% or 20%) + Previous Shortfalls = Total to be provided Total to be provided compared to Deliverable Supply = Years Supply. The publication of the Five Year Land Supply Statement is the Councils statement of supply and the explanation of the methodology used in determining that supply. As such it Planning Policy & Built Heritage Working Party 1 4 19 May 2014 is a key consideration in the Development Management process as the absence of sufficient supply can result in the approval of development that is contrary to policy provided such development is judged to be sustainable. In the first fourteen years of the plan period the rate of new dwelling completions fell behind the annual average mainly as a result of there being few larger development sites available in the early years of the plan period and, more recently, the slowdown in the national and local housing market. As of April 2014 a total of 773 fewer dwellings had been built than were required to remain ‘on target’. Consequently, the Council should plan to make up this deficit, preferably in the next five year period, to maximise the likelihood that overall dwelling targets will be met within the plan period. If this accumulated shortfall and a 5% buffer is added to the annual average target of 400 dwellings the current target for housing provision is 575 dwellings per year or 2,873 over the next five year period. 3. SUPPLY - CURRENT HOUSING LAND SUPPLY IN NORTH NORFOLK Guidance requires that to ‘count’ towards the five year land supply sites must comply with a number of criteria: In the main they must be specific identifiable sites although some allowance can be made for ‘windfall’ developments (sites which are not identifiable until such time as planning applications are made) - provided there is a strong likelihood that such sites will actually be developed within the period. the identified sites must be available for development now, and they must be suitable for development, and development must be achievable; there should be a reasonable prospect of a site actually being developed. It is not sufficient to include sites merely because they have planning permission or are allocated for development in a Development Plan. It is important to show that houses will actually be provided within the applicable five year period. The Council is currently able to point to a large land supply in the adopted Site Allocations Development Plan which includes land for around 3,400 dwellings but it is not able to demonstrate that all of these sites are immediately available or have a reasonable prospect of being developed within the next five years. For example, much of the large allocation at Fakenham is assessed as being unlikely to deliver development in the next five years. Indeed, the Core Strategy and Site Allocation Development Plans are 15 -20 year Plans which anticipate that some sites will be slower to deliver housing than others. The latest statement (attached) covering the five year period commencing April 2014 concludes that through a combination of sites with planning permission, sites that are under construction, and those that are likely to provide dwellings over the next five years, the District could provide approximately 3,152 dwellings - equating to 5.4 years supply inclusive of a 5% buffer. Table 1 – Five Year Land Requirement compared with Supply. TOTAL 5 YEAR SUPPLY TOTAL DWELLINGS EXPECTED FROM ALL SOURCES (large sites, pending applications, other potential sources, Planning Policy & Built Heritage Working Party Total number of dwellings expected to be built within the next 5 years from all sources. 3,152 2 5 19 May 2014 site allocations and small sites) REQUIRED FIVE YEAR SUPPLY INCLUDING 5% BUFFER 2,873 CURRENT NUMBER OF YEARS SUPPLY 5.4 Total number of dwellings required in the next 5 years to ensure targets are met including a 5% buffer Supply divided by the annual average requirement (575). 4. LAND SUPPLY AND TRAJECTORY – WHAT’S INCLUDED IN THE PIPELINE? The pipeline of future housing supply is drawn from four main sources: Permitted - Dwellings on sites which already have planning permission but where development is yet to start but where there is a reasonable prospect of completed units within the next 5 years. This category will include partly finished sites. Under Construction - Dwellings which are under construction but are not yet complete. Dwellings where development has started but are not likely to be finished (long term dormant) are not counted. Allocated - Dwellings on identified sites (allocations) which do not yet have planning permission but nevertheless are likely to provide completed houses within five years. Windfall – Allowance for dwellings on unidentified sites. A significant proportion of new development in the district is derived from developments which are not on allocated sites but nevertheless comply with policy. This includes changes of use, barn conversion schemes, removal of holiday occupancy conditions together with infill and redevelopment proposals. In previous years around half of the permitted supply was on small sites with consent for less than 10 dwellings. However, for the first time in some years there are larger sites where planning permissions have been granted and development has commenced. Small sites now comprise around one third of the total future supply and housing delivery in the coming years will be increasingly dependant on the development of the larger sites. Building conversions (barns) and the removal of holiday occupancy restrictions continue to make a significant contribution to overall supply figures. Government has published recent advice which in future years will allow residential care and nursing homes to be included in the housing provision totals. 5. ALTERNATIVE METHODOLOGIES There is no definitive government advice in relation to the preparation of five year land supply statements and given that the absence of an adequate supply is a key determining consideration in the planning application process it is unsurprising that supply statements are subject to challenge through planning appeals. Both planning authorities and the development industry have adopted alternative methodologies to demonstrate that an adequate supply is, or is not, available. The main areas of debate are: Is it right for a Council to rely on housing target figures which were set some years ago or based on figures first derived from the Regional Spatial Strategy which has now been revoked? Planning Policy & Built Heritage Working Party 3 6 19 May 2014 The housing target for North Norfolk is based on the adopted Core Strategy which in turn sourced the housing target from the East of England Plan. It was adopted in 2008 and is based on evidence which has been subject to examination. The NPPF requirements in relation to housing targets are that they should meet all objectively assessed need and demand. Needs and demands for housing are assessed through the preparation of Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs). The Council has commissioned a SHMA which is programmed to be available in Oct/Nov 2014. In the interim, and in the absence of any other evidence based assessments, it is considered that the housing growth targets included within the adopted Core Strategy provide the most appropriate basis for establishing five year housing supply targets. In what circumstances should a 20% buffer be added to these targets rather than a 5% buffer? In addition to providing a five year supply of land the NPPF requires the addition of a buffer. The purpose of the buffer is to extend choice and competition in the market. The NPPF suggests that this buffer should comprise sites ‘moved forward from later in the plan period’ but does not explain what this actual means. It also requires that where there has been a record of persistent under delivery of housing (again this is not defined) the buffer should be increased to 20%, again moved forward from later in the plan period. Although the NPPF is unclear in its terminology it is clear in terms of intent, namely that the absence of deliverable housing sites should not be allowed in hinder housing delivery to the extent that targets cannot be met. Equally government has made clear that it does not expect local authorities to address shortages of land if there is evidence that land is being banked by developers. There is no significant evidence of land banking in North Norfolk; where planning permissions have been granted development has tended to commence shortly thereafter and the introduction of the Housing Incentive Scheme has brought forward both applications and commencement of development. Assessed on the basis of historical completion records it might be argued that the Council has persistently under delivered against housing targets and the size of the current deficit is now substantial at around 750 dwellings. However it is also notable that most of this deficit has accrued since 2008 when house completions nationally fell to historically low levels as a consequence of recession. It is not considered that there is any lack of suitable sites or choice of sites in North Norfolk and given this there are no grounds to add a 20% buffer to housing targets. Are assessments of the rate of future housing delivery accurate and supported by evidence? There are many factors which influence rates of future development and it is not possible, or necessary, to be definitive in relation to how many houses might be provided in the future. Land supply comprises those sites where there is a reasonable prospect of development taking place. The Council undertakes detailed assessments in relation to delivery rates on all of the larger development sites in the district and the conclusions of these assessments are published as part of the statement. These assessments include considerations such as ownership, availability, site suitability, planning status, market conditions, stage of development and the stated intentions of developers. Overall the assessment is considered to be robust and evidence based. Planning Policy & Built Heritage Working Party 4 7 19 May 2014 6. CONCLUSION The position in relation to land supply is improving, planning permissions have been granted on a number of larger sites and development has commenced on most of these. This year dwelling completions were only slightly short of the 400 dwelling per year baseline requirement and were approximately 35% higher than last year. Subject to market conditions remaining favourable this improving trend is expected to continue in the short term. Given the current situation the position in relation to land supply will need to be kept under regular review. Although there is a five year supply, this is only marginal and the position could change quickly, for example, if expected development rates were to slow. Given this the Council may need to carefully consider any planning applications which do not comprise part of the existing housing land supply, including those where the grant of planning permission would represent a departure from adopted policies and consider carefully the deliverability of such proposals. Any proposals should continue to be considered in accordance with adopted Development Plans having regard to the land supply situation at the time of application and other material considerations. RECOMMENDATION That the Working Party recommends to Cabinet that the attached Land Supply Statement is published, and This report is presented to the Development Committee as an item for information. (Source: Mark Ashwell, Planning Policy Manager ext. 6325) Planning Policy & Built Heritage Working Party 5 8 19 May 2014 Appendix A Statement of Five Year Supply of Housing Land & Housing Trajectory April 2014 9 10 Statement of Five Year Supply of Housing Land & Housing Trajectory - April 2014 Contents Part A: Five Year Land Supply 1. Background............................................................................................................................ 1 2. Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 1 3. Stage 1: The Five Year Period ........................................................................................... 2 4. Stage 2: North Norfolk Five Year Housing Requirement............................................... 2 5. Stage 3 & 4: Five Year Deliverable Housing Supply ....................................................... 4 6. Monitoring the Five Year Supply ........................................................................................ 5 Part B: Housing Trajectory 7. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 6 8. Information Sources ............................................................................................................. 6 9. Need & Demand ................................................................................................................... 7 10. The Local Supply of Housing Development Land ........................................................... 7 11. Development Plan Requirements ...................................................................................... 8 12. The Housing Trajectory (2001-2026) .......................................................................... 8 13. Key Trajectory Results ............................................................................................ 10 Appendices Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites Appendix 2: Delivery of Allocations Appendix 3: Housing Trajectory Graph / Table 11 12 North Norfolk District Council Statement of Housing Land Supply & Housing Trajectory April 2014 PART A: FIVE YEAR LAND SUPPLY 1. Background 1.1 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) came into force in March 2012. This seeks to ensure that the planning system delivers a flexible and responsive supply of housing development land. It requires that Local Planning Authorities identify sufficient specific deliverable1 sites to provide the next five years of the planned housing provision as proposed in their Local Plan and that a five year supply, together with a 5% buffer, is maintained over a fifteen year period. Additionally, where there is evidence of persistent under-delivery of housing this buffer should be increased to 20%. 1.2 This statement has been prepared following guidance from the Planning Inspectorate and Department for Communities and Local Government: Demonstrating a 5 Year Supply of Deliverable Sites (updated March 2010). It sets out North Norfolk District Council’s housing land supply and identifies specific sites which the Council considers are likely to contribute to the delivery of the five years provision. They include sites already under construction but not yet complete, those with planning permission but where building work has not yet commenced, and sites that have potential under planning policies to come forward for development within the next five years. In each case, only sites where there is a reasonable prospect that additional dwellings will be provided within the five year period are included in the supply. Hence whilst there is currently planning permission for approx. 1,715 dwellings in the District, this statement concludes that a significant proportion of these may not be built in the next five years. Equally there are sites which do not yet have planning permission but are nevertheless judged as likely to deliver housing in the near future. 1.3 This statement includes a Housing Trajectory (Part B and Appendix 3) illustrating development rates since 2001 and looking forwards to 2026. 2. Methodology 2.1 Local Development Documents set out the policies and strategies for delivering the level of housing provision, including identifying broad locations and specific sites that will enable continuous delivery of housing. Sufficient deliverable sites should be identified to deliver housing in the first five years, with a further supply of specific, developable sites for years 6-10 and, where possible, for years 11- 1 To be considered deliverable sites should be available now, they should be suitable for development now and there should be a realistic prospect of the site actually delivering dwellings in the next five years. 1 13 15. Many of these sites are identified in the North Norfolk Site Allocations Development Plan adopted by the Council in 2011. 2.2 Guidance2 outlines four stages in the process of determining supply: • STAGE 1 - Identifying the five year period; • STAGE 2 - Identify the scale of housing provision to be delivered; • STAGE 3 - Identify sites with potential to deliver housing in the 5 year period; and • STAGE 4 - Assessing deliverability 2.3 For sites to be considered deliverable, the NNPF states they should be: • Available - the site is available now; • Suitable - the site offers a suitable location for development now; and • Achievable - there is a reasonable prospect that housing will be delivered on the site within the specified five year period. 2.4 In determining land supply an allowance for windfalls (unidentified and unexpected developments) can be included provided robust evidence is available that such developments are likely to continue to contribute to supply in future years. 3. Stage 1: The Five Year Period 3.1 The five year period covered by this statement is 1st April 2014 to the 31st March 2019. 4. Stage 2: North Norfolk Five Year Housing Requirement 4.1 The number of dwellings which constitute a five year supply is derived from the quantity of housing growth in the District proposed in the adopted North Norfolk Core Strategy over the twenty year period which commenced in April 2001. This Plan requires that at least 8,000 dwellings are built in North Norfolk over the period 2001- 2021. To meet this requirement, an average of at least 400 dwellings need to be built in each of the 20 years if the requirement is to be met (400dwgs x 20yrs = 8,000dwgs). 4.2 During the first 13 years of the plan to April 2014, dwelling completion rates in North Norfolk have been below this annual average requirement on a number of occasions particularly between 2007 -2014, hence completion rates will need to increase in the next five years and over the remainder of the plan period if the minimum 8,000 dwelling target is to be met. The District Council expects this to happen from now, with the progression of larger development sites which have been allocated in the Site Allocations Development Plan document (adopted February 2011). Many of these sites now have planning permission and are now being developed. 4.3 As of the 1 April 2014, a total of 4,427 dwellings had been provided in the District (an average of 340 per annum). In order to meet the 8,000 dwelling requirement 2 Department of Communities and Local Government – Demonstrating a five year land supply 2 14 an additional 3,573 will need to be built in the last seven years of the plan period from 2014 to 2021. This equates to an average of 511 in each year or 2,555 dwellings over the five year period. In accordance with the NPPF and as a measure to extend the choice of sites available, the Council has added an additional buffer equal to a further 5% supply. This increases the target over the five year period to 2,873, or 575 (rounded up) per year. Increasing the annual average requirement in this way will ensure that the shortfall in dwellings that has built up in recent years will be eliminated at the end of the five year period. 4.4 This target of 2,873 dwellings over a five year period is challenging but realistic, and to maximise the likelihood of the target being met the Council has introduced a Housing Incentives Scheme aimed at improving the viability of residential development. Details of the scheme are available on the Council’s website. Nevertheless delivering this number of dwellings on a consistent basis over the next five years will depend on development of many of the larger site allocations and favourable market conditions. The Council will keep the land supply position under regular review. Table 1: Calculation of Housing Requirement FIVE YEAR HOUSING REQUIREMENT (1 April 2014 - 31 March 2019) North Norfolk District Council RSS requirement (2001-2021) 8,000 Year Recorded Completions Residual Annual Average Requirement Cumulative Shortfall / Surplus 2001/02 367 400 -33 2002/03 428 402 -5 2003/04 230 400 -175 2004/05 250 410 -325 2005/06 446 420 -279 2006/07 341 419 -338 2007/08 551* 424 -187 2008/09 258 414 -329 2009/10 416* 427 -313 2010/11 178 428 -535 2011/12 337 454 -598 2012/13 242 467 -756 2013/14 383 495 -773 Total Completions since 2001 4,427 Annual average completions to date 340 Requirement over rest of plan period (7 years) 3,573 Original 5 year annual average requirement 400 Original 5 year requirement (400 x 5) 2,000 5 year requirement with 5% buffer (2,000 x 1.05) 2,100 5 year requirement with 5% buffer and cumulative shortfall (2,100 + 773) 2,873 3 15 5 year annual average requirement with 5% buffer and cumulative shortfall (2,873 / 5) 575 Total deliverable supply (see Appendix 1) 3,152 Total years supply (3,152 / 575) 5.48 5. STAGES 3 and 4: Five Year Deliverable Housing Supply 5.1 The North Norfolk Core Strategy (incorporating Development Control policies) was adopted in September 2008 and identifies strategic locations for housing growth in the District. It provides greater certainty, particularly with regard to designations on the Proposals Map, and allows for the granting of planning permissions in locations which are consistent with Core Strategy policies. 5.2 In 2007 the Core Strategy estimated that some 2,056 net dwelling completions would take place in the District between 2007-2011. This figure was based on an expectation, at that time, that around 600 dwellings would be built on newly allocated development sites by 2011 and that windfall developments would continue to provide new dwellings, albeit at a reduced rate than had historically been the case. In practice, few of the allocated sites have produced dwellings resulting in some 1,403 completions over this period rather than the 2,056 predicted in the Core Strategy. 5.3 The Council has published a Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (June 2009 and 2010 update) which identified sites in the District with potential to provide housing. These sites could in theory accommodate in excess of 15,000 dwellings and in excess of 3,500 of these dwellings could in theory be built within the next five years. However much of this capacity can only be delivered if the site is allocated for development in a Development Plan document and/or secures planning permission. 5.4 The schedule of housing sites in Appendix 1 provides details of sites that could make up the 5 year supply of deliverable sites. The schedule includes sites which already have planning permission, are under construction but not yet recorded as complete, other sites where there is a reasonable expectation that development will occur in the next five years in accordance with development plan policies, and allocated sites contained within the Site Allocations Development Plan Document. The schedule also includes small scale developments (less than 10 dwellings) with a 10% lapse rate applied to take account of the fact that some of the sites will not come forward. 5.5 Sites which are not considered to be available now, suitable or achievable are not included in the supply. This has been assessed as follows: • • Available - the land owner has indicated the site is available, the site is for sale, or is known to be owned by a developer/owner who is able to develop. The site is unconstrained. Suitable - site has planning permission or is in a location where planning policies would allow development and there is a realistic prospect of permission being granted. 4 16 • Achievable - judgement on the prospects of the site being developed within the next five years based on historical trends, discussions with owners/developers and consultation with infrastructure/service providers. 5.6 Notwithstanding recent improvements in the housing market the Council has discounted the number of dwellings which may occur during the next five years to take account of the recent downturn in the housing market. Hence a number of the sites that have planning permission and are not subject to any known constraints are nevertheless recorded as not providing completions within the next five year period. 6. Monitoring the Five Year Supply 6.1 The Council will monitor the five year supply of deliverable sites on an annual basis. This statement will be updated regularly to take account of any significant changes. New planning permissions and completions are recorded on a continuous basis. Dwelling completions are recorded annually with the results published in the Housing Land Availability Statement published in April/May each year. 5 17 PART B: HOUSING TRAJECTORY 7. Introduction 7.1 Annual recording of dwelling commencements, dwellings under construction, dwelling completions, new planning permissions granted, and assessment of what developments may occur in the coming years is an essential part of the plan, monitor, manage approach to housing delivery. A Housing Trajectory is produced annually by the Planning Authority to illustrate past and likely future trends in housing provision having regard to land availability and historical/future patterns of development. 7.2 This paper outlines the methodology used in producing the trajectory and includes a trajectory for North Norfolk covering the period 2001 to 2026. It identifies the quantity of planned housing development over this period, how much of this has been built and what remains to be provided. It draws together existing published sources of information on site suitability, availability and achievability, and makes an assessment of when development may occur in the future. 7.3 It should be recognised at the outset that there are a wide range of influences on the housing market and consequently predictions about the levels of future provision are susceptible to change. Nevertheless, if a robust and cautious approach is taken and the trajectory is subject to regular review, some broad conclusions can be reached about levels of future housing supply in the District over the medium to long term. The Housing Trajectory included in this statement adopts such a ‘cautious’ approach and reflects the current position in relation to the local housing market, namely that despite there being a supply of suitable and available land, build rates remain below historical and required averages. 8. Information Sources 8.1 Housing related data is monitored annually by the Planning Authority for the period commencing the 1st of April and ending on the 31st of March each year. Data is published as follows: 8.2 Housing Land Availability Statements (HLA) – these have been published by the Council each year since 1993 and provide a summary of the number of dwellings completed, under construction, and with planning permission in each Parish of the District. 8.3 Five Year Housing Land Supply Statements – these have been published by the Council every year since 2007 and relate to the amount of housing that has been provided and is expected to be provided over the next 5 years, with the minimum levels of planned growth identified in the adopted Core Strategy. In addition to dwelling completions and planning permissions these statements also include an assessment of when identified development sites will be built. In the absence of a five year supply of development sites intervention may be required via the allocation of new deliverable development sites in development plan documents or the grant of additional planning permissions on unallocated sites. 6 18 8.4 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments – first published in 2009 and updated in 2010, these studies look at the capacity of the district to accommodate housing growth. Studies identify all reasonable potential sources of dwelling completions in the district and make an assessment of the suitability of sites, their availability, and when development could be delivered in the event of such sites being released for housing. Whilst these studies identify a large amount of theoretical capacity they are not policy documents and do not reach any conclusions in relation to whether this capacity should be made available for development through allocation in a development plan document or by the grant of planning permission. 8.5 Whilst the trajectory is prepared by the District Council it is the result of consultation with landowners, developers, Housing Associations and others with an interest in housing development in North Norfolk. The Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment in particular is primarily derived from information supplied by public and private sector housing providers. 9. Need & Demand 9.1 The evidence3 indicates that there are high levels of both demand and need for additional housing in the district. The need for additional affordable housing is particularly acute due in large part to higher than national average house prices and lower than average incomes. Studies have suggested that if existing and arising affordable housing needs are to be addressed around 900 affordable dwellings per year would be required over a sustained period. Similarly, over the medium to long term the demand locally for market housing has been strong, fuelled in part by high levels of in-migration. 9.2 The recent slow down in both the local and national economy has had a significant impact on the local new build housing sector. Both dwelling completions and dwelling commencements have declined and have only in the last year shown signs of significant improvement. 10. The Local Supply of Housing Development Land 10.1 For a number of years the Council has applied land use policies that have constrained the opportunities for new residential development. This approach arose as a result of relatively high levels of new house building in the 1980s and early 1990s and a concern that if such trends were allowed to continue dwelling completions in the district would exceed the requirement of the then adopted Structure Plan. Consequently, the North Norfolk Local Plan, adopted in 1998, made no new housing land allocations and included policies that constrained the opportunities for new dwelling completions to locations within the boundaries (infill development) of approximately 80 defined settlements. Despite this policy of development constraint an average of 346 dwellings were built each year over this period. Most of this (in excess of 75%) occurred within the 24 settlements which have now been selected for further growth in the adopted Core Strategy. 3 Housing Market and Housing Needs surveys and updates – Fordham Research 7 19 10.2 Average annual dwelling completion rates in the District have declined in the last ten years. Large releases of dwellings at the former airbases at Coltishall and West Raynham produced high ‘completion’ rates in 2008 and 2010, but without these one off windfall sites, dwelling completions are now significantly below the 10 year average. Whilst the current economic climate has played a significant part in recent reductions, the absence of larger scale housing land allocations has undoubtedly limited opportunities in recent years. The Council considers that both land supply and market factors have influenced the reduction in dwelling completion numbers in the district in recent years. 10.3 Hence, in addition to the allocation of land for development in the Site Allocations Development Plan, it will also be necessary to see a general improvement in the housing market if planned levels of growth in the district are to be achieved. As outlined elsewhere in this statement the Council has introduced a temporary Housing Incentive Scheme which includes a range of measures designed to improve development viability and encourage the quicker delivery of development. 12. The Housing Trajectory 2001-2026 12.1 The housing trajectory illustrates in graphical form the quantity of housing development in the district since 2001, the predicted future levels up to 2021 and for a further period (5 years) beyond 2021, and compares this to the planned levels of housing growth over this period. 12.2 Four separate sources of dwellings are modelled: Dwellings which have been provided 12.3 Dwelling completion rates are recorded annually and published in Housing Land Availability (HLA) reports. Completions are monitored via Building Regulation completion records and site visits. A dwelling is recorded as complete when it is substantially completed and available for occupancy. Completions include new build dwellings, sub-divisions, conversions and changes of use, and are expressed as net additions to the housing stock (i.e. taking account of any housing loss). Dwellings and other types of accommodation which are subject to holiday occupancy restrictions are not counted as net additions. Only selfcontained dwelling units are included, along with houses in multiple occupation (hostels etc) and residential institutions such as care and nursing homes (these were not previously recorded as dwellings but following the publication of the National Planning Policy Guidance, nursing and care homes will be included in future totals). The permitted supply 12.4 This comprises of sites which already have planning permission. Dwelling numbers in this category will include dwellings with planning permission which have not been started and those which are under construction but are not yet recorded as completions. The Authority calculates that approx. 10% (lapse rate) of all dwellings permitted will never be built and this is deducted from the figures. 8 20 12.5 There are a number of sites in the district that have enjoyed planning permission for many years, where commencement of development has been recorded but where dwelling completions have either stopped or the site only delivers a small number of dwellings each year. The Five Year Land Supply Statement reaches conclusions about the likely dwelling delivery rates on sites with planning permission. Overall it concludes that whilst there is already planning permission for approximately 1,790 dwellings (before lapse rate is applied) which have yet to be built it is likely that only 1,545 of these will be built over the five year period from 2014 to 2019. 12.6 The trajectory includes those dwellings in this category identified in the Five Year Land Supply as likely to be built over this five year period. For the purposes of producing a trajectory the total dwellings on small sites (less than 10) in this source are divided equally into five annual amounts and shown as being built at an equal rate over the five year period (2014-19). For larger sites (more than 10), a prediction has been made as to when development is likely to occur between the current year and 2026. In practice precise delivery rates will vary year on year. Supply arising from the proposed allocations in the Site Specific Proposals Development Plan 12.8 Since April 2011 the allocated sites have been included in future housing supply. The rate at which these will start to deliver dwellings is based on the evidence in the Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment and takes into account a wide range of information including site ownership, registered interests from the development industry, stated intentions of developers, time taken to secure planning permission, any specific site constraints that are likely to impact on delivery times and the current economic climate. The Council considers that it is unlikely that many of these sites will deliver new dwellings in the first few years of the period, notwithstanding that many developers indicate otherwise, and this is reflected in the trajectory. Supply arising from expected development (identified and unidentified) 12.9 It is not practical or possible to identify all sources of future housing development on a site by site basis. For example, the SHLAA and Site Allocations DPD focus on larger sites (mainly those that can accommodate 10 or more dwellings in towns and three or more in villages). Future housing supply in the district will comprise of developments on a mixture of both identified and unidentified sites. In the past these unidentified sites have been the sole constituent of housing development in the district and have yielded an average of 346 dwellings per year. 12.10 The adopted Core Strategy predicts that unidentified sites will continue to contribute about 250 dwellings per year to the total housing supply. As this assumption was made on the basis of looking backwards at historical trends over a relatively long period (10 years) it might be argued that the figures attributed to this source in the Core Strategy are too high. This is because they do not reflect the more recent significant downturn in dwelling completions. To ensure that the trajectory adopts a cautious approach to housing delivery the Council has further reduced likely dwelling completions in this category by assuming that future completions will not exceed the lowest figures achieved in recent years and will 9 21 diminish year on year thereafter throughout the plan period. The net result over the entire period covered by this trajectory is that rather than 2,514 (Core Strategy prediction) dwellings being derived from this category, it is considered more likely that this figure will not exceed 1,850 dwellings. 12.12 These four sources are shown in different colours on the graph. The table in Appendix 3 provides dwelling numbers for each constituent part of the supply. Information on individual sites is published in the source evidence documents referred to in Section 8. Expected dwelling delivery rates on the proposed housing allocation sites are modelled in Appendix 2. 12.13 In producing this Trajectory the following assumptions have been made. 1. There will be some improvement in the housing market for the next two years. 2. On the larger development sites (proposed allocations) a period of two/three years from the date of a planning application to dwelling completions should be expected unless there are specific circumstances to suggest otherwise. 3. That allocated development sites cannot be developed until specifically identified constraints have been addressed. 4. That around 10% of planning permissions granted will never be built. 5. That larger development sites are unlikely to deliver more than 25-30 dwellings per year if developed by a single developer unless there is evidence that would suggest otherwise. 13. Key Trajectory Results 13.1 The trajectory illustrates that the quantity of dwellings arising from each of the four main sources will be as follows: Dwellings already built Deliverable planning permissions Proposed allocations left to be built Other expected sources Total expected between 2001-2021 Total expected between 2001 2026 4,427 1,715* 2,356** 1,280*** 8,357 9,711 *1,049 left to be built on large sites and 666 left on smaller sites (less than 10 with -10% lapse rate applied). **Does not include potential dwellings within mixed-use schemes such as Retail Opportunity Sites and is hence lower than the actual number proposed in the Site Allocations DPD. Also does not include allocations with permission to avoid double counting. ***Original figure of 1,850 devised for 2009/10 onwards, therefore figure for 2013/14 statement reduced accordingly (to 930, plus additional expected windfall over the next 5 years, which is 70 per year and therefore 350 over 5 years). 13.2 Since 2001 some 4,427 dwellings have been built in the District. Based on the annual average requirement of 400 dwellings per year this is some 773 dwellings behind the requirement at this point in the plan period. Dwelling completions in the District are therefore 1.9 years behind the required rate. This is unsurprising at this point in the plan cycle given that land allocations are yet to deliver significant development and market factors have slowed delivery. 13.3 Since 2012/13, the supply of potential development sites has been supplemented by the allocated sites in the Site Allocations Development Plan 10 22 Document and, contingent on continued improvement in the housing market, dwelling completion rates are predicted to increase. By 2015/16, and in the years thereafter, dwelling completions are expected to reach and exceed the original annual average requirement of 400 dwellings. The Site Allocations Development Plan Document contains a number of housing sites which together provide for approximately 3,138 dwellings (not including mixed-use schemes). Of these, 721 have been granted planning permission (of which 131 have been completed). Of the total number of allocated dwellings left, 1,552 are expected to be delivered by 2021 (those already with permission are not included in this figure to avoid double counting). This is towards the upper end of the range specified in Core Strategy Policy SS3. This quantity of development on allocated sites when added to the dwellings already built since 2001 (4,427 units), and those with planning permission which are likely to be built (1,708 units – up to 2021), along with dwellings on unidentified sites (670 – up to 2021), would result in sites being available and suitable for the provision of 8,357 dwellings in the district by 2021. 13.4 In addition to permissions and allocations the Authority considers that unidentified, but expected, developments will continue to contribute to housing supply both within the remainder of the Core Strategy/RSS plan period up to 2021 and for the 15 year period up to 2026. The trajectory indicates that some elements of the proposed allocations are unlikely to be completed by 2021 and therefore dwellings on these sites will contribute towards housing supply in the period 2021-2026. 13.5 The Trajectory illustrates that: • • • A five year supply of sites is available. Dwelling completions are predicted to meet the 8,000 dwelling requirement of the East of England Plan by 2021; Continuation of development rates in the period beyond 2021 is likely to result in some 9,711 dwellings being built in the District over the period 2001- 2026. 11 23 Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) Total affordable dwellings expected Left to be built Under construction Completed Full planning permission Outline planning permission Current application Location Ð Pre-application discussion StatusÎ Allocated Site Site Reference Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) SITES WITH PLANNING PERMISSION FOR 10 OR MORE DWELLINGS AND ALLOCATED SITES ALLOCATED SITE - Site in multiple ownerships, development would require relocation of existing business, site is not currently available so development unlikely in next five years. ALLOCATED SITE - Pre-application discussions with land owner who intends to make a planning application under Housing Incentive Scheme for approx. 20 dwellings during 2014. ALLOCATED SITE - Single ownership and could be available immediately but not yet on market. Pre-application advice offered for scheme of around 30 affordable units. Application likely during 2014 under Housing Incentive Scheme. ALD01 Garage Site / Pipit's Meadow, Aldborough 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 4 0 BACT03 Land adjacent to Beach Road, Bacton 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 20 4 20 BACT05 Land to rear of Duke of Edinburgh Public House, Bacton 14 30 0 0 0 0 0 14 3 14 BLA03 12/0681 Land West of Langham Road, Blakeney 0 0 0 0 24 12 12 12 12 12 ALLOCATED SITE WITH PERMISSION AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION. Will be completed within 5 years. BRI02 Land West of Astley Primary School, Briston 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 15 0 ALLOCATED SITE. Unconstrained greenfield site in agricultural use. Owner indicates commencement in 2020. BRI24 Land at rear of Holly House, Briston 10 18 0 0 0 0 0 10 5 10 ALLOCATED SITE - Pre-application advice offered for scheme of 18 dwellings. Planning application expected during 2014 with immediate commencement indicated. Ten included within five years but may deliver more. BRI27 Land at Church Street, Briston 10 0 17 0 0 0 0 17 17 17 ALLOCATED SITE WITH PLANNING PERMISSION. Housing Association advises commencement expected during 2014. 24 Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) Total affordable dwellings expected Left to be built Under construction Completed Full planning permission Outline planning permission Current application Location Ð Pre-application discussion StatusÎ Allocated Site Site Reference Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) PLANNING PERMISSION commenced in 2006/07 and is ongoing. Completion rates are slow but it is considered that there is a reasonable prospect that this site will be completed over the next five years. ALLOCATED SITE. Small site in private ownership with no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints but owner indicates not likely to come to market before 2020.. 19881996 Land at Hall Street, Briston 0 0 0 0 67 44 1 23 0 23 CAT01 Land off Lea Road, Catfield 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 7 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 9 18 ALLOCATED SITE. Pre-application discussion with potential developer. 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 18 0 ALLOCATED SITE – owner indicates existing use to be retained in the short term but site likely to become available towards end of plan period. 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 27 60 ALLOCATED SITE. Pre-application discussions with site owner, application likely during 2014 with commencement of development shortly thereafter. 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 18 40 ALLOCATED SITE. Owner indicates delivery during 2017/18. COR01 C01 C04 C07 Land between Norwich Road & Adams Lane, Corpusty Land adjacent to East Coast Motors, Beach Road, Cromer Land at rear of Sutherland House, Overstrand Road, Cromer Land at Jubilee Lane / Cromer High Station, Cromer C14 13/0247 Land West of Roughton Road, Cromer 0 0 0 0 145 0 0 145 40 145 ALLOCATED SITE WITH PLANNING PERMISSION AND DEVELOPMENT COMMENCED. Likely to deliver 145 houses within 5 years. ED2 Cromer Football Club, Mill Road, Cromer 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 4 0 ALLOCATED SITE. On-going discussions regarding possible relocation of football club. Site unlikely to deliver dwellings in next five years. 25 Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) Total affordable dwellings expected Left to be built Under construction Completed Full planning permission Outline planning permission Current application Location Ð Pre-application discussion StatusÎ Allocated Site Site Reference Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) PLANNING PERMISSION - Building single plots at intervals. Due to slow build rates it is assumed that only 2 of the remaining plots will be completed within 5 years although the site could be completed over this period. PLANNING PERMISSION - No sign of recent activity. Although some or all of these dwellings could be built no allowance has been made for dwellings within next five years as it is not clear when development will recommence. (022.002) Cromwell Road, Cromer 0 0 0 0 20 10 0 10 0 2 19901666 Highview, Cromer 0 0 0 0 41 21 2 20 0 0 19941720/ 19961424 Central Road, Cromer 0 0 0 0 106 80 0 26 0 26 No sign of recent activity, but discussions some time ago regarding possible recommencing of works. 20050527 Fletcher Hospital, Cromer 0 0 0 0 25 0 1 25 0 0 IMPLEMENTED PLANNING PERMISSION -. Although some or all of these dwellings could be built no allowance has been made for dwellings within next five years. Some discussions regarding possible works. 09/0826 Burnt Hills, Cromer 0 0 0 0 13 0 1 13 0 7 IMPLEMENTED PLANNING PERMISSION. Recent discussions with owner suggest some completions within 5 years. 13/0451 Land at Jubilee Lane, Cromer 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 10 0 10 PLANNING PERMISSION UNDER CONSTRUCTION F01 Land North of Rudham Stile Lane, Fakenham 850 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 382 200 F05 Land between Holt Road & Greenway Lane, Fakenham 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 16 0 26 ALLOCATED SITE. Draft Development Brief has been prepared, site owner promoting commencement of development during 2014, with first phase of approx. 60- 90 dwellings likely to be subject to a full application during summer of 2014 with phased release of sites thereafter. ALLOCATED SITE. Development of remainder will require relocation of existing uses and land assembly, therefore development considered unlikely in next five years. PART OF SITE NOW COMPLETED (24), THEREFORE 36 LEFT. Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) Total affordable dwellings expected Left to be built Under construction Completed Full planning permission Outline planning permission Current application Location Ð Pre-application discussion StatusÎ Allocated Site Site Reference Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) 19892604/ 20001459 Smiths Lane, Fakenham 0 0 0 0 81 51 0 30 0 10 IMPLEMENTED PLANNING PERMISSION Very slow build rates in recent years, no sign of recent activity. Unlikely to be completed in 5 years but appropriate to make small allowance reflecting continued delivery over previous years. 20081342 107-109 Holt Road, Fakenham 0 0 0 0 14 0 1 14 0 14 Likely to be completed within 5 years (PERMISSION FOR 16, NET FIGURE OF 14 USED). HAP07 Land West of Whimpwell Street, Happisburgh 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 7 0 ALLOCATED SITE. Small site in private (mixed) ownership which may delay delivery, no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. Land at Staithe Road, Hickling 0 0 0 0 18 16 0 2 0 2 Slow delivery rates over a very long period but development is now nearing completion. Land West of Woodfield Road, Holt 0 0 0 85 0 0 0 85 38 85 ALLOCATED SITE. Has outline permission and is owned by local house builder. Reserved Matters application likely during 2014 with commencement shortly thereafter. Land at Heath Farm / Hempstead Road, Holt 200 0 215 0 0 0 0 215 90 150 ALLOCATED SITE. APPLICATION SUBMITTED HOR06 Land East of Abbot Road, Horning 26 0 26 0 0 0 0 26 13 26 ALLOCATED SITE. APPLICATION SUBMITTED HV03 11/0762 Land adjacent to Doctors Surgery, Stalham Road, Hoveton 0 0 0 0 120 53 58 67 54 67 ALLOCATED SITE. Development has started, likely to be completed within 5 years. 19750496/ 20031113 H01 11/0978 H09 27 Outline planning permission Full planning permission Completed Under construction Left to be built Total affordable dwellings expected Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) SN05 Former site of Langham Glass, North Street, Langham Land at junction of Holt Road & Kettlestone Road, Little Snoring Land adjacent to Little Snoring Primary School, Kettlestone Road, Little Snoring Current application SN01 Location Ð Pre-application discussion 20060770/ 12/0721 StatusÎ Allocated Site Site Reference Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites 0 0 0 0 21 0 9 21 0 21 Condition on earlier permission for holiday cottages now lifted to permit residential occupation. Cottages are under construction. 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 10 20 ALLOCATED SITE. Pre-application discussion has taken place, planning application submitted and awaiting registration. 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 5 10 ALLOCATED SITE. Pre-application discussion with local developer. Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) LUD01 Land South of School Road, Ludham 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 7 15 ALLOCATED SITE. Pre-application advice offered. Planning application anticipated during 2014. LUD06 Land at Eastern end of Grange Close, Ludham 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 5 0 ALLOCATED SITE. No recent interest shown. 069.047 Melton Constable Hall, Melton Constable 0 0 0 0 33 8 3 25 0 0 No sign of recent activity. No allowance made for next 5 years (PERMISSION FOR 34, NET FIGURE OF 33 USED). Land off Grove Road, Melton Constable 0 0 0 38 0 0 0 38 0 38 Revised application likely during 2014 under Housing Incentive Scheme Land at Grange Cottage / Water Lane, Mundesley 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 8 40 Pre-application discussions with owner who wishes to make full planning application under Housing Incentive Scheme in 2014. 20080329 MUN06 28 Outline planning permission Full planning permission Completed Under construction Left to be built Total affordable dwellings expected Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) Land South of Trunch Road, Mundesley Current application Location Ð Pre-application discussion MUN07 StatusÎ Allocated Site Site Reference Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 2 10 Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) Pre-application discussions with owner who wishes to make full planning application under Housing Incentive Scheme in 2014. NW01 Land at Norwich Road / Nursery Drive, North Walsham 400 0 176 0 0 0 0 400 85 250 ALLOCATED SITE. APPLICATION SUBMITTED ON PART OF SITE FOR 176. Pre application discussions in relation to phase 2 development. Around 120 considered likely in next five years on phase 2 development. NW25 Land off Laundry Loke, North Walsham 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 4 14 ALLOCATED SITE. Site owner indicates commencement within five years. NW28a North Walsham Football Club, North Walsham 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 27 0 ALLOCATED SITE. Dependent upon relocation of football club (relocation costs), with possible highways issues. Some development on this site within the next five years is possible but considered unlikely given the need to relocate the football club to an alternative site. NW44 Paston College Lawns Site, North Walsham 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 27 0 ALLOCATED SITE. Dependent upon relocation of Paston College, no recent interest shown. 20070751 Hall Lane Garage, Hall Lane, North Walsham 0 0 0 0 18 16 0 2 0 2 10/0682 13-21 Bacton Road, North Walsham 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 22 0 0 Foundry cars site. Site is currently for sale, no allowance has been made for dwellings within next 5 years. C17 10/1453 The Railway Triangle Site, Norwich Road, Cromer (Northrepps) 0 0 0 0 50 42 8 8 16 8 ALLOCATED SITE. Development has started, likely to be completed within 5 years. 29 Pre-application discussion Current application Outline planning permission Full planning permission Completed Under construction Left to be built Total affordable dwellings expected Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) 13/0117 Former Cherryridge Poultry Site, Church Street, Northrepps 0 0 34 0 0 0 0 34 17 34 Has outline planning permission and is currently for sale. Likely to deliver housing within 5 years. OVS03 Land at rear of 36 Bracken Avenue, Overstrand 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 3 0 ALLOCATED SITE. Small site in private ownership with no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. OVS04 Land South of Mundesley Road, Overstrand 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 17 35 ALLOCATED SITE. Small site in private ownership. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. Planning application expected soon. Site Reference Allocated Site Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites StatusÎ Location Ð Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) (075.001) Hillingdon Park, Overstrand 0 0 0 0 35 25 0 10 0 0 Old planning permission. Recent application submitted for remaining plots, however application was withdrawn. Although some or all of these dwellings could be built no allowance has been made for dwellings within next five years. ROU03/10 Land at Back Lane, Roughton 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 6 30 ALLOCATED SITE. Pre-application discussions with owner who wishes to make full application under Housing Incentive Scheme. SH04 Land adjoining Seaview Crescent, Sheringham 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 20 30 ALLOCATED SITE. Greenfield site owned by house builder, but no recent interest shown. SH05 Land adjoining Morley Hill, Sheringham 10 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 0 8 ALLOCATED SITE. APPLICATION SUBMITTED SH06 Land rear of Sheringham House, Sheringham 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 31 70 ALLOCATED SITE. Owned by house builder, planning application expected during 2014. 30 Pre-application discussion Current application Outline planning permission Full planning permission Completed Under construction Left to be built Total affordable dwellings expected Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) Land at Holway Road, opposite Hazel Avenue, Sheringham 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 22 50 ALLOCATED SITE. Some developer interest. Planning application expected during 2014. 20020123/ 20032108 Seaview Crescent, Sheringham 0 0 0 0 13 9 4 4 0 1 Slow development with only a few plots remaining. 19770968 The Esplanade, Sheringham 0 0 0 0 55 24 0 31 0 0 Implemented permission with no evidence of recent activity. Although some or all of these dwellings could be built no allowance has been made for dwellings within next five years. 19950722/ 12/1082 Land off Cremer Street, Sheringham 0 0 0 0 13 0 9 13 0 13 Development has started. Application for revised design on some plots. May be completed within 5 years. 11/0440 Former Hilbre School, Sheringham 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 40 0 40 Has outline permission. Site is owned by national food retailer. May be completed within 5 years. SOU02 Land West of Long Lane, Southrepps 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 5 0 ALLOCATED SITE. Small site in private ownership with no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. SOU07 Land North of Thorpe Road, Southrepps 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 6 0 ALLOCATED SITE. Small site in private ownership with no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. Beechlands Park, Southrepps 0 0 0 0 32 25 3 7 0 7 Site developing slowly, may be completed within 5 years Site Reference Allocated Site Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites SH14 (092.001) StatusÎ Location Ð 31 Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) Pre-application discussion Current application Outline planning permission Full planning permission Completed Under construction Left to be built Total affordable dwellings expected Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) (092.019) Clipped Hedge Lane, Southrepps 0 0 0 0 26 18 5 8 0 8 ST01 12/1427 Land adjacent to Church Farm, Ingham Road, Stalham 0 0 0 0 150 0 10 150 68 150 ALLOCATED SITE. Development has started, likely to deliver housing within 5 years. 20071919 Old Baker’s Yard, High Street, Stalham 0 0 0 0 15 4 0 11 0 11 Development has started, may be completed within 5 years. WAL01 Land East of Wells Road, Walsingham 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 12 0 ALLOCATED SITE. Small site in private ownership with no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. 13/0841 Former Field Study Centre, Polka Road, Wells-nextthe-Sea 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 10 10 10 Affordable housing site. Likely to be completed within 5 years. W01 13/0007 Land at Market Lane, Wells-nextthe-Sea 0 0 0 0 123 0 6 123 55 123 ALLOCATED SITE. Development has started, likely to deliver housing within 5 years. 10/0295 39-52 Renwick Park, West Runton 0 0 0 0 10 0 1 10 10 10 Some recent activity, likely to be completed within 5 years. WEY03 Land at The Street, opposite The Maltings Hotel, Weybourne 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 4 ALLOCATED SITE. Pre-application discussions with owner who wishes to make full application under Housing Incentive Scheme. Site Reference Allocated Site Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites StatusÎ Location Ð 32 Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) Site developing slowly, may be completed within 5 years Outline planning permission Full planning permission Completed Under construction Left to be built Total affordable dwellings expected Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 Total affordable dwellings expected Left to be built Under construction Completed Full planning permission Outline planning permission Current application Location Ð Pre-application discussion StatusÎ Allocated Site Site Reference SUB TOTAL Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) ALLOCATED SITE. Small site in private ownership with no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. 2,020 Total number of dwellings on large sites with full or outline planning permission and allocated sites, with a ‘reasonable prospect’ of delivery within the five year period. Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) Land South of Beck Close, Weybourne Current application Location Ð Pre-application discussion WEY09 StatusÎ Allocated Site Site Reference Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) PENDING APPLICATIONS THAT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FIVE YEAR SUPPLY 13/0111/ 13/1222 14/0283 14/0284 Former Police Station and Magistrates Court, Holt Road, Cromer Land South of Cromer Road and East of Grove Lane, Holt Land South of Cromer Road and East of Grove Lane, Holt 0 0 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Refused but currently being appealed. 0 0 126 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Yet to be determined, no allowance made for next 5 years. 0 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Yet to be determined, no allowance made for next 5 years. 33 Pre-application discussion Current application Outline planning permission Full planning permission Completed Under construction Left to be built Total affordable dwellings expected Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) 12/0350 The Broads Hotel, Station Road, Hoveton 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Yet to be determined, likely to be completed within 5 years. 20080506 RAF West Raynham, Massingham Road, West Raynham 0 0 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 Resolution to grant planning permission. Owner indicates likely completion over next five years. 58 Total number of dwellings on large sites where a decision is pending, which may be built during the five year period. Site Reference Allocated Site Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites StatusÎ Location Ð Under construction Left to be built Total affordable dwellings expected Total dwellings expected in 5 yrs including under construction (where appropriate) Completed Full planning permission Outline planning permission Current application Location Ð Pre-application discussion StatusÎ Allocated Site Site Reference SUB TOTAL 0 58 0 58 Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) Comments on deliverability (is the site available, suitable, achievable) OTHER LARGE DEVELOPMENTS THAT MAY COME FORWARD - RAF West Raynham 0 0 0 0 0 0 SUB TOTAL 34 Ex-RAF housing stock slowly being released (note – this is separate from the above planning permission). 58 Total number of dwellings on large sites that may be available, are subject to a pre-application discussion or have been refused permission but are in the appeals process, which may be built during the five year period. Total dwellings expected in 5yrs including under construction (where appropriate) Total affordable dwellings expected Left to be built Under construction Completed Full planning permission Outline planning permission Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites Comments SITES WITH PLANNING PERMISSION FOR LESS THAN 10 DWELLINGS (-10% lapse rate applied) 50 771 78 306 741 0 666 741 dwellings have planning permission and are yet to be completed. The figure of 666 represents 741 dwellings minus a 10% lapse rate (741 x 0.9). Windfall 0 0 0 0 0 0 350 70 per year over the next 5 years. (How do we calculate is there any double counting of pps) Total dwellings expected in 5yrs including under construction (where appropriate) Total from all small sites (under 10 dwellings) Comments TOTAL 5 YEAR SUPPLY TOTAL EXPECTED FROM ALL SOURCES (large sites, pending applications, other potential sources, allocated sites, small sites and windfall) 3,152 Total number of dwellings expected to be built within the next 5 years from all sources. REQUIRED FIVE YEAR SUPPLY 2,873 Total number of dwellings required in the next 5 years. 35 Appendix 1: Schedule of Sites NUMBER OF YEARS SUPPLY 5.48 Supply (3,152) divided by the annual average requirement (575). Note: Appendix 2, based on information from the Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment concludes that some of the smaller sites in villages will yield dwellings over the next five years. However unless the Council is aware of specific interest it is assumed for the purposes of demonstrating a five year supply that these sites will not produce dwellings in the first 5 year period. 36 Appendix 2 - Delivery of Allocations 2025/26 2024/25 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 Beyond 5 years 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 5 year period 2015/16 Site Name/ Location Council estimation of when deliverable 2014/15 Ref Developer estimation of when available (made 2010) Comments SITES ALLOCATED FOR HOUSING IN SITE SPECIFIC PROPOSALS DPD – PRINCIPAL & SECONDARY SETTLEMENTS Cromer C01 C04 C07 C14 C17 ED2 Land adjacent to East Coast Motors, Beach Road, Cromer Land at rear of Sutherland House, Overstrand Road, Cromer Within 10 Years Within 10-15 years 20 Immediately (start 2010/11 - Within 5 years complete 2012) 30 Land at Jubilee Within 5 Years Lane / Cromer Within 10-15 01/01/2011 High Station, years 01/01/2012 Cromer Land West of Roughton Road, Cromer Railway Triangle, Norwich Road, Cromer Cromer Football Club, Mill Road, Cromer Immediately (commence 2010-2011) Immediately (start 2011 complete 2012/13) Beyond 2012 20 Pre-application discussions with site owner, application likely during 2014 with commencement of development shortly thereafter. 30 20 Existing use to be retained in the short term but site likely to become available towards end of plan period. 20 Owner indicates delivery during 2017/18. Start within 5 years HAS FULL PERMISSION. Within 5 years HAS FULL PERMISSION. Ongoing discussions regarding possible relocation Beyond 5 years (10) of football club. Site unlikely to deliver dwellings in next five years Fakenham F01 Land North of Rudham Stile Lane, Fakenham Limited Immediately development (start 2012 likely within 5 complete 2021) years 25 25 50 100 100 100 100 100 100 75 37 Draft Development Brief has been prepared, site owner promoting commencement of development 75 during 2014, with first phase of approx. 90 dwellings likely to be subject to a full application during summer of 2014. Appendix 2 - Delivery of Allocations 2025/26 2024/25 2023/24 H09 Land at Heath Farm / Hempstead Road, Holt 2022/23 Immediately Possible (start 2011 delivery within complete 2015) five years 2021/22 Land West of Woodfield Road, Holt 18 2020/21 H01 2019/20 Development possible within Within 5 years five years but (start 2010 existing uses complete 2011) require relocation Beyond 5 years 2018/19 F05 Land between Holt Road & Greenway Lane, Fakenham 2017/18 Site Name/ Location 2016/17 Ref 5 year period 2015/16 Council estimation of when deliverable 2014/15 Developer estimation of when available (made 2010) Comments PART OF SITE HAS FULL PERMISSION. Development of remainder will require relocation of existing uses and land assembly, therefore development considered unlikely in next five years. PART OF SITE NOW COMPLETED (24), THEREFORE 36 LEFT. 18 Holt Immediately Not likely to deliver significant numbers in 5 years / phased development HAS OUTLINE PERMISSION. Site now sold to developer. likely to deliver housing within 5 years. 25 25 50 50 50 15 APPLICATION SUBMITTED. Hoveton HV03 Land adjacent to Doctors Surgery, Immediately Stalham Road, Hoveton Start within 5 years HAS FULL PERMISSION. Development has started, likely to be completed within 5 years. Start within 5 years APPLICATION SUBMITTED ON PART OF SITE FOR 176 DWELLINGS. Pre application discussions in relation to phase 2 development. Around 120 considered likely in next five years on phase 2 development. North Walsham NW01 Immediately / Land at Within 5 years Norwich Road / (start 2011 Nursery Drive, complete North Walsham 2017/18) NW25 Land off Within 5 years Laundry Loke, (start 2012 Within 5 years North Walsham complete 2012) 25 75 75 75 50 25 25 25 25 Site owner indicates commencement within five years. 14 38 Appendix 2 - Delivery of Allocations NW28a North Walsham Football Club, North Walsham NW44 Paston College Lawns Site, Not known North Walsham - Within 10-15 years 30 2025/26 2024/25 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 Beyond 5 years 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 5 year period 2015/16 Site Name/ Location Council estimation of when deliverable 2014/15 Ref Developer estimation of when available (made 2010) Dependent upon relocation of football club (relocation costs), with possible highways issues. Some development on this site within the next five 30 years is possible but considered unlikely given the need to relocate the football club to an alternative site. (60) Unknown Comments Dependent upon relocation of Paston College. Site unlikely to deliver dwellings in next five years. Sheringham SH04 Land adjoining Seaview Crescent, Sheringham Within 5 years Within 5-10 (start 2011 years complete 2016) SH05 Land adjoining Morley Hill, Sheringham Immediately (start 2010 Within 5 years complete 2011) SH06 Land rear of Sheringham House, Sheringham Immediately Within 5-10 (start 2010/11 years complete 2012) SH14 Land at Holway Within 5 years Road, opposite (start 2012 Within 5 years Hazel Avenue, complete 2015) Sheringham 15 15 Greenfield site owned by house builder, but no recent interest shown. 15 8 10 APPLICATION SUBMITTED. 20 20 25 25 Owned by house builder, planning application expected during 2014. 20 Some developer interest. Planning application expected during 2014. Stalham 39 Appendix 2 - Delivery of Allocations ST01 Land adjacent Immediately to Church Start within 5 (start 2011 Farm, Ingham years complete 2015) Road, Stalham 2025/26 2024/25 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 Beyond 5 years 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 5 year period 2015/16 Site Name/ Location Council estimation of when deliverable 2014/15 Ref Developer estimation of when available (made 2010) Comments HAS FULL PERMISSION. Expected completions scheduled in table 2. Wells-next-the-Sea W01 Land at Market Lane, WellsWithin 5 years next-the-Sea HAS FULL PLANNING PERMISSION. Expected completions scheduled in table 2. Start within 5 years SITES ALLOCATED FOR HOUSING IN SITE SPECIFIC PROPOSALS DPD – SERVICE VILLAGES Aldborough Garage Site / Pipit's Meadow, Immediately Aldborough Within 5-10 years BACT03 Land adjacent to Beach Road, Immediately Bacton Start within 5 years BACT05 Land to rear of Duke of Edinburgh Public House, Bacton ALD01 8 Site in multiple ownerships, development would require relocation of existing business, development unlikely in next five years. Bacton Immediately Start within 5 years 10 7 10 Pre-application discussions with land owner who intends to make outline application under Housing Incentive Scheme for approx. 20 dwellings shortly and market the site. 7 Single ownership and could be available immediately, not yet on market. Pre-application advice offered for scheme of around 30 affordable units. Application likely during 2014 under Housing Incentive Scheme. Blakeney BLA03 Land West of Immediately Langham Road, Within 5 years (within 2 years) Blakeney HAS FULL PERMISSION. Expected delivery scheduled in table 2. Briston 40 Appendix 2 - Delivery of Allocations Land at rear of Holly House, Briston BRI27 Immediately Land at Church Within 5-10 (start 2012 Street, Briston years complete 2014) Within 10 Years Within 5-10 years 9 2025/26 10 2024/25 10 2023/24 10 2022/23 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 5 2021/22 BRI24 2020/21 Land West of Within 10 years Start within 5Astley Primary (start 2020 10 years School, Briston complete 2022) Beyond 5 years 2019/20 BRI02 5 year period 2015/16 Site Name/ Location Council estimation of when deliverable 2014/15 Ref Developer estimation of when available (made 2010) Comments Unconstrained greenfield site in agricultural use. Owner indicates commencement in 2020. Pre-application advice offered for scheme of 18 dwellings. Planning application expected during 2014 with immediate commencement. 5 8 APPLICATION SUBMITTED. Catfield CAT01 Land off Lea Road, Catfield Within 5 Years Start within 5 years 15 Small site in private ownership with no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. Corpusty COR01 Land between Immediately (e Norwich Road Start within 5 arly 2011 - late & Adams Lane, years 2011) Corpusty 9 Pre-application discussion with potential developer. 9 Happisburgh HAP07 Land West of Whimpwell Street, Happisburgh Immediately Start within 510 Years Immediately Start within 5 years 14 Small site in private (mixed) ownership which may delay delivery, no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. Horning Land East of Abbot Road, Horning Little Snoring HOR06 13 13 APPLICATION SUBMITTED. 41 Appendix 2 - Delivery of Allocations 2025/26 2024/25 Start within 5 years 10 Land at Eastern Within 10 end of Grange Years Close, Ludham 2023/24 Interest in development of the site following introduction of Housing Incentive Scheme. LUD06 2022/23 10 Land South of School Road, Ludham 2021/22 Within 5-10 years LUD01 2020/21 Pre-application discussion has taken place, planning application submitted and awaiting registration. SN05 2019/20 10 Land adjacent to Little Snoring Primary School, Immediately Kettlestone Road, Little Snoring 2018/19 10 SN01 Land at junction of Holt Road & Immediately Within 5-10 Kettlestone (start 2011 years Road, Little complete 2012) Snoring 2017/18 Beyond 5 years 2016/17 5 year period 2015/16 Site Name/ Location Council estimation of when deliverable 2014/15 Ref Developer estimation of when available (made 2010) Comments Ludham Immediately 01/09/2008 01/09/2009 Pre-application advice offered. Planning application anticipated during 2014. 5 Within 5-10 years 10 No recent interest shown. Mundesley MUN06 Land at Grange Within 5 Years Cottage / Water Within 5-10 (start 2011 Lane, years complete 2013) Mundesley 20 MUN07 Land South of Trunch Road, Mundesley 10 Within 5 Years Within 5-10 (start 2011 years complete 2013) Pre-application discussions with owner who wishes to make full planning application under Housing Incentive Scheme in 2014. 20 Pre-application discussions with owner who wishes to make full planning application under Housing Incentive Scheme in 2014. Overstrand 42 Appendix 2 - Delivery of Allocations OVS03 OVS04 Land at rear of 36 Bracken Avenue, Overstrand Land South of Mundesley Road, Overstrand Immediately Within 10-15 years Immediately (late 2010 early 2011) Start within 5 years 6 10 2025/26 2024/25 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 Beyond 5 years 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 5 year period 2015/16 Site Name/ Location Council estimation of when deliverable 2014/15 Ref Developer estimation of when available (made 2010) Comments Small site in private ownership with no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. 15 10 Small site in private ownership. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. Planning application expected soon. 15 15 Pre-application discussions with owner who wishes to make full application under Housing Incentive Scheme. Roughton ROU03/10 Immediately Land at Back Start within 5 (start 2011 Lane, Roughton years complete 2013) Southrepps SOU02 Land West of Long Lane, Southrepps Not known Within 5-10 years 10 Small site in private ownership with no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. SOU07 Land North of Thorpe Road, Southrepps Not known Within 5 -10 years 12 Small site in private ownership with no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. Land East of Wells Road, Walsingham Not known Within 5-10 years 24 Small site in private ownership with no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. Walsingham WAL01 Weybourne WEY03 Land at The Street, opposite Immediately The Maltings (start 2011 Within 5 years Hotel, complete 2011) Weybourne WEY09 Land South of Beck Close, Weybourne Not known Pre-application discussions with owner who wishes to make full application under Housing Incentive Scheme. 4 4 Within 5 years 43 Small site in private ownership with no current developer interest. No exceptional development costs or infrastructure constraints. Appendix 2 - Delivery of Allocations Total 0 2025/26 2024/25 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 Beyond 5 years 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 5 year period 2015/16 Site Name/ Location Council estimation of when deliverable 2014/15 Ref Developer estimation of when available (made 2010) 114 337 383 307 243 168 238 155 135 105 105 KEY: Has planning permission Planning application submitted Early discussions / pre-application advice / development brief underway Unsure of delivery timescale Last updated March 2014 44 Comments Appendix 3 - Trajectory Table Housing Trajectory Table (April 2014) 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Built 367 428 230 250 446 341 551 258 416 178 337 242 383 Deliverable planning permissions Expected development on unidentified sites Deliverable allocations 302 272 306 335 330 82 81 2 1 1 1 1 70 70 70 70 70 165 155 145 135 120 110 100 0 114 337 383 307 243 168 238 155 135 105 105 Total 367 428 230 250 446 341 551 258 416 178 337 242 383 372 456 713 788 707 490 404 385 291 256 216 206 45 Original annual Original Difference average cumulative (average Cumulative requirement requirement completions) shortfall 400 400 -33 -33 400 800 28 -5 400 1200 -170 -175 400 1600 -150 -325 400 2000 46 -279 400 2400 -59 -338 400 2800 151 -187 400 3200 -142 -329 400 3600 16 -313 400 4000 -222 -535 400 4400 -63 -598 400 4800 -158 -756 400 5200 -17 -773 400 5600 -28 -801 400 6000 56 -745 400 6400 313 -432 400 6800 388 -44 400 7200 307 263 400 7600 90 353 400 8000 4 357 400 8400 -15 342 400 8800 -109 233 400 9200 -144 89 400 9600 -184 -95 400 10000 -194 -289 Cumulative total 367 795 1025 1275 1721 2062 2613 2871 3287 3465 3802 4044 4427 4799 5255 5968 6756 7463 7953 8357 8742 9033 9289 9505 9711 Housing Trajectory 2014 Number of dwellings projected to be completed each year (1st April - 31st March) 900 800 700 582 337 508 467 454 114 415 429 330 243 70 335 70 168 70 70 70 0 105 105 100 110 1 1 120 135 2 46 145 Years 81 Deliverable allocations Expected development on unidentified sites Deliverable planning permissions Dwellings completed in year Original annual average target Annual average requirement Annual requirement with 5% buffer and shortfall 47 82 0 135 155 155 165 178 0 238 269 306 272 242 250 230 258 302 337 341 383 416 446 428 367 100 551 507 551 300 200 307 571 428 427 414 424 419 420 410 400 402 400 400 535 493 511 No. of dwellings 575 500 383 600