Bibliography BIBLIOGRAPHY Adler, Michael, and Erio Ziglio (eds.) (1996). Gazing into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and its Application to Social Policy and Public Health London: Jessica Kingsley Publishers. . Bankes, Steven C. (1993). “Exploratory modeling for policy analysis.” Operations Research , Vol. 41, No. 3, pp. 435–449. –––––––– (1994). “Computational experiments and exploratory modeling.” Chance , Vol. 7, No. 1, pp.50–51, 57. Bell, David E., Howard Raiffa, and Amos Tversky (1988). “Descriptive, normative, and prescriptive decision making.” In Bell, David E., Howard Raiffa, and Amos Tversky (eds.), Decision Making: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Interactions . Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press. Bridgeman, P.W. (1922). Dimensional Analysis University Press. . New Haven, Conn.: Yale Brooks, Arthur, Steven C. Bankes, and Bart Bennett (1997). Weapon Mix and Exploratory Analysis . Santa Monica, CA: RAND, DB-216/2-AF. Clausewitz, Carl von (1976). (Translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret). On War . Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. Cohen, William S. (1997). Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense. . Cook, Major General Donald G. (1998). Evolving to an Expeditionary Aerospace Force: The Next Air Force . Director for AEF Implementation, U.S. Air Force. Coombs, C.H. (1958). “On the use of inconsistency of preferences in psychological measurement.” Journal of Experimental Psychology pp. 1–7. –––––––– (1964). A Theory of Data . New York: Wiley. - 319 - , Vol. 55, Bibliography Davis, Paul K. (ed.) (1994). New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough . Santa Monica, CA: RAND, MR-400-RC. –––––––– and James H. Bigelow (1998). Experiments in Multiresolution Modeling (MRM) . Santa Monica, CA: RAND, MR-1004-DARPA. ––––––––, –––––––– and Jimmie McEver (1999). Analytical Methods for Studies and Experiments on “Transforming the Force.” Santa Monica, CA: RAND, DB-278-OSD. –––––––– and Donald Blumenthal (1991). The Base of Sand Problem: A White Paper on the State of Military Combat Modeling . Santa Monica, CA: RAND, N-3148-OSD/DARPA. ––––––––, David Gompert, and Richard Kugler (1996). Adaptiveness in National Defense: The Basis of a New Framework . Santa Monica, CA: RAND, IP-155. Dewar, James A., James C. Wendt, Sean J. A. Edwards, and Steven C. Bankes (2000). Expandability of the 21st Century Army . Santa Monica, CA: RAND, MR-1190-A (forthcoming). Edwards, Ward, and J. Robert Newman (1982). Multiattribute Evaluation . Sage University Papers Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-026. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage. Elachi, Charles (1998). Mars Exploration Program: Preliminary Architecture Team Report . Washington, DC: NASA. Fukuyama, Francis, and Abram N. Shulsky (1997). The “Virtual Corporation” and Army Organization . Santa Monica, CA: RAND, MR-863-A. Gaertner, Paul (2000). An Application of TOPSIS for Capability Impact Assessment . (Presentation to the Defence Operations Analysis Symposium.) Salisbury, Australia: Defense Science and Technology Organisation. Gander, T. J. (1997). “Shouldering the burden of last-ditch defense.” Jane’s International Defense Review , Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 57–62. - 320 - Bibliography Gordon, John, IV, and Peter A. Wilson (1998). The Case for Army XXI “Medium Weight” Aero-Motorized Divisions: A Pathway to the Army of 2020 . Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute. –––––––– and –––––––– (1999). “Moving toward high performance power projection: the case for medium-weight army forces.” ARMY , December, pp. 33–40. Gritton, Eugene C., Paul K. Davis, Randall Steeb, and John Matsumura (2000). Ground Forces for a Rapidly Employable Joint Task Force: First-Week Capabilities for Short-Warning Conflicts , Santa Monica, CA: RAND, MR1152-OSD/A. Hillestad, Richard J., and Paul K. Davis (1998). Resource Allocation for the New Defense Strategy: The DynaRank Decision-Support System . Santa Monica, CA: RAND, MR-996-OSD. Hwang, Ching-Lai, and K. Paul Yoon (1981). Multiple Attribute Decision Making: Methods and Applications . Berlin: Springer-Verlag. –––––––– and Ming-Jeng Lin (1987). Group Decision making under Multiple Criteria: Methods and Applications . Berin: Springer-Verlag. Ischebeck, Otfried, and Hartwig Spitzer (1992). “Evolution of tanks and anti-tank weapons: assessment of offence-defence dynamics and arms control options.” In W.A. Smit, J. Grin and L. Veronmkov (eds.), Military Technological Innovation and Stability in a Changing World . Amsterdam: VU University Press. Keeney, Ralph L., and Howard Raiffa (1993). Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs , 2nd edition. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press. Khalilzad, Zalmay, and Ian O. Lesser (eds.) (1997). Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century: Regional Futures and U.S. Strategy . Santa Monica, CA: RAND, MR-897-AF. –––––––– and David Ochmanek (eds.) (1997). Strategic Appraisal 1997: Strategy and Defense Planning for the 21st Century . Santa Monica, CA: RAND, MR826-AF. - 321 - Bibliography Koury, Robert, and Andrew Loerch (1992). Army Program Value Added Analysis 94-99 (VAA 94-99), Volume 1 – Main Report . Bethesda, MD: Army Concepts Analysis Agency, CAA-SR-92-10. Lempert, Robert J., and James L. Bonomo (1998). New Methods for Robust Science and Technology Planning . Santa Monica, CA: RAND, DB-238DARPA. ––––––––, Michael E. Schlesinger, and Steven C. Bankes (1996). “When we don’t know the costs or the benefits: adaptive strategies for abating climate change.” Climatic Change , Vol. 33, pp. 235–274. Linstone, Harold A., and Murray Turoff (eds.) (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications . Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. Louviere, Jordan J. (1988). Analyzing Decision Making: Metric Conjoint Analysis . Sage University Paper Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-067. Newbury Park, CA: Sage. Macgregor, Douglas A. (1997). Breaking the Phalanx: A New Design for Landpower in the 21 st Century . Westport, CT: Praeger. Marsh, Robert T. (1997). Critical Foundations: Protecting America’s Infrastructures . Washington, DC: President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection. Matsumura, John, and Randall Steeb, et al. (1997). Analytic Support to the st Century Military Defense Science Board: Tactics and Technology for 21 Superiority . Santa Monica, CA: RAND, DB-198-A. ––––––––, –––––––– and John Gordon IV (1998). Assessment of Crusader Monica, CA: RAND, MR-930-A. . Santa Miller, George M. (1956). “The magical number seven, plus or minus two: some limits on our capacity for processing information.” Psychological Review , Vol. 63, pp. 81–97. O’Hanlon, Michael (1995). Defense Planning for the Late 1990s: Beyond the Desert Storm Framework . Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution. - 322 - Bibliography Saaty, Thomas L. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process Hill. . New York: McGraw- –––––––– (1989). “Group decision making and the AHP.” In Golden, Bruce L., Edward A. Wasil, and Patrick T. Harker (eds.), The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Applications and Studies . Berlin: Springer-Verlag. Sackman, Harold (1975). Delphi Critique: Expert Opinion, Forecasting, and Group Process . Lexington, MA: Lexington Books. Schwartz, Peter (1991). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World . New York: Currency Doubleday. Sharoni, A. H., and L. D. Bacon (1997). “The Future Combat System (FCS).” Armor , July-August, pp. 7–13. Shinseki, General Eric K. (1999). Army Vision Statement . http://www.hqda. army.mil/ocsa/vision.htm, last accessed April 11, 2000. Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of Man . New York: Wiley. Simpkin, Richard (1979). Tank Warfare : An Analysis of Soviet and NATO Tank Philosophy . London: Brassey’s Publishers. Steele, Dennis (2000). “The Army stages a Kentucky demo to define ‘the art of the possible’.” ARMY , March, pp. 20-26. Steuer, Ralph E. (1986). Multiple Criteria Optimization: Theory, Computation, and Application . New York: John Wiley & Sons. Stokey, Edith, and Richard Zekhauser (1978). A Primer for Policy Analysis New York: W. W. Norton & Company. . Tavana, Madjid and Snehamay Banerjee (1995). “Strategic assessment model (SAM): a multiple criteria decision support system for evaluation of strategic alternatives.” Decision Sciences , Vol. 26, No. 1, pp. 119–143. Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman (1974). “Judgements under uncertainty: heuristics and biases.” Science , Vol. 185, pp. 1124–1131. - 323 - Bibliography –––––––– and –––––––– (1981). “The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice.” Science , Vol. 211, pp. 453–458. U. S. Army (1993). Operations , Field Manual 100-5. U. S. Army Armor Center (1999). Briefing to USAA Meeting. U. S. Joint Chiefs of Staff (1994). Joint Doctrine for Military Deception Publication 3-58. , Joint Van Creveld, Martin L. (1982). Fighting Power: German and US Army Performance, 1939-1945 . Westport, CT: Greenwood Press. Von Neumann, John, and Oskar Morgenstern (1947). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior . Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Winterfeldt, Detlof von, and Ward Edwards (1986). Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research . Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press. Yoon, K. Paul, and Ching-Lai Hwang (1995). Multiple Attribute Decision Making: An Introduction . Sage University Paper Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-104. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Yu, P.L. (1985). Multiple Criteria Decision Making: Concepts, Techniques and Extensions . New York: Plenum. Zahedi, Fatemeh (1986). “The analytic hierarchy process – a survey of the method and its applications.” Interfaces , Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 96-108. Zeleny, Milan (1982). Multiple Criteria Decision Making Hill. - 324 - . New York: McGraw-