TABLES
2.1 Assessment of Force Evaluation Techniques with Respect to Decision Support Capabilities
Considered Essential in the Current Defense Planning Context................................................ 17
3.1 Standard Value Function Options .................................................................................... 30
3.2 Rating Scale Used to Assess the Importance of One Attribute (i) Relative to Another (l) for a
Specified Mission (m)............................................................................................................ 31
3.3 Rating Scale Used to Assess the Importance of System Roles, and of the Contributions that
Characteristics Make to Force Attributes ................................................................................ 32
4.1 Customized Sets of Missions, Attributes, Characteristics and System Roles......................... 59
4.2 Doctrinal Classification of Missions.................................................................................. 60
4.3 Time Criticality and Type of Enemy Force Associated with Missions.................................. 62
4.4 Contributing Factors and Rating Scale Proxies for System Characteristics ........................... 66
4.5 Rating Scale Definitions for System Characteristics ........................................................... 70
4.6 Contributing Factors and Rating Scale Proxies for Operational Characteristics .................... 73
4.7 Rating Scale Definitions for Operational Characteristics .................................................... 74
5.1 Component Systems of Near-Term Force Options............................................................. 82
5.2 Component Systems of Far-Term Force Options ............................................................... 83
5.3 Operational Concepts Used in Both Near- and Far-Term Force Options.............................. 84
5.4 Roles and Quantities of Systems in Near-Term Force Options ............................................ 87
5.5 Mix of Operational Concepts Used by Near-Term Force Options ....................................... 89
5.6 Characteristic Ratings of Near-Term Systems.................................................................... 90
5.7 Characteristic Ratings of Near-Term Operational Concepts................................................ 92
5.8 Roles and Quantities of Systems in Far-Term Force Options .............................................. 94
5.9 Mix of Operational Concepts Used by Far-Term Force Options .......................................... 96
5.10 Characteristic Ratings of Far-Term Systems....................................................................101
5.11 Characteristic Ratings of Far-Term Operational Concepts ...............................................103
5.12 Important Factors for Near-Term Force Options.............................................................104
5.13 Important Factors for Far-Term Force Options ...............................................................107
6.1 Value Functions Assigned to Each Characteristic, and the Degree of Agreement among the
Experts on these Selections ...................................................................................................111
6.2 Importance of Attributes Relative to Each Other, for Every Mission ..................................114
6.3 Degree of Attribute Contributions to Force Effectiveness in Each Mission..........................116
6.4 Direct Contributions to Attributes by Individual Characteristics .......................................117
6.5 Extra Synergistic Contributions to Attributes by Pairs of Characteristics............................120
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6.6 Degree of Overall Characteristic Contributions to Force Attributes....................................121
6.7 Importance of System Characteristics in Roles that Systems Can Play in a Force.................124
7.1 Importance of Near-Term Systems in Determining Force-Level Characteristics ..................128
7.2 Importance of Far-Term Systems in Determining Force-Level Characteristics ....................132
7.3 Median Force-Level Characteristics of Near Term Force Options.......................................134
7.4 Median Force-Level Characteristics of Far Term Force Options .........................................134
8.1 Median Attribute Values for Near Term Force Options.....................................................141
8.2 Median Attribute Values for Far Term Force Options .......................................................142
8.3 Median Mission Effectiveness Levels of Near Term Force Options ....................................145
8.4 Median Mission Effectiveness Levels of Far Term Force Options.......................................146
8.5 Baseline Rank Frequencies of Near-Term Force Options in Each Mission...........................148
8.6 Baseline Rank Frequencies of Far-Term Force Options in Each Mission .............................149
8.7 Preference Frequencies for Selected Pairs of Near-Term Options.......................................151
8.8 Frequency of Preferences Between Selected Pairs of Far-Term Options ..............................153
9.1 Screening Results for Near Term Force Options ...............................................................158
9.2 Parameters and Strategic Weights for Future Security Environment Scenarios ...................170
9.3 Median Strategic Value of Options in Future Security Environment Scenarios ...................172
9.4 Rank Frequencies of Options in Future Security Environment Scenarios............................175
9.5 Preference Frequencies in Future Security Environment Scenarios ....................................175
10.1 Impact of Using Alternative Value Function Selections ...................................................178
10.2 Preference Frequencies in Future Scenarios, with Alternative Value Functions .................180
10.3 Impact of Selected Large, Controversial Attribute Rating Perturbations ...........................187
10.4 Impact of Selected Multiple, Small Attribute Rating Perturbations...................................193
10.5 Scenario Preference Frequencies for Medium Versus Heavy in the Near Term, Under
Selected Attribute Rating Perturbations.................................................................................196
10.6 Scenario Preference Frequencies for Advanced Air + SOF Versus Lean Heavy in the Far
Term, Under Selected Attribute Rating Perturbations.............................................................198
10.7 Impact of Selected Large, Controversial Perturbations in the Ratings of Characteristic
Contributions to Force Attributes..........................................................................................203
10.8 Impact of Selected Combinations of Small, Influential Changes in the System Characteristic
Contribution Ratings............................................................................................................207
10.9 Scenario Preference Frequencies for Medium Versus Heavy in the Near Term, Under
Selected Characteristic Rating Perturbations..........................................................................209
10.10 Scenario Preference Frequencies for Advanced Air + SOF Versus Lean Heavy in the Far
Term, Under Selected Characteristic Rating Perturbations ......................................................210
10.11 Impact of Selected Large, Controversial Perturbations in the System Role Importance
Ratings................................................................................................................................215
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10.12 Impact of Selected Small, Multiple Perturbations in the System Role Importance Ratings 219
10.13 Scenario Preference Frequencies for Medium Versus Heavy in the Near Term, Under
Selected System Role Rating Perturbations ............................................................................224
10.14 Scenario Preference Frequencies for Advanced Air + SOF Versus Lean Heavy in the Far
Term, Under Selected System Role Rating Perturbations ........................................................225
10.15 Impact of Systematic Increases in the Proportion of Each System Type in Near-Term Force
Options...............................................................................................................................233
10.16 Impact of Systematic Increases in the Proportion of Each System Type in Far-Term Force
Options...............................................................................................................................236
10.17 Impact of Changes in System Composition of Options on Rankings...............................237
10.18 Impact of Systematic Increases in the Proportion of Each Operational Concept Used in the
Near-Term Force Options.....................................................................................................241
10.19 Impact of Systematic Increases in the Proportion of Each Operational Concept Used in the
Far-Term Force Options .......................................................................................................245
10.20 Impact of Changes in Operational Composition of Options on Their Rankings ...............246
10.21 Scenario Preference Frequencies for Medium Versus Heavy in the Near Term, Under
Selected Alterations in Option Composition ..........................................................................249
10.22 Scenario Preference Frequencies for Medium Versus Heavy in the Far Term, Under
Selected Alterations in Option Composition ..........................................................................252
A.1 Opposing Force Characteristics in Near Term .................................................................304
A.2 Opposing Force Characteristics in Far Term....................................................................305
B.1 Education of Participants ...............................................................................................308
B.2 Military Experience of Participants .................................................................................309
B.3 Defense Analysis Experience of Participants....................................................................310
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