BUILDING CABLES OF THE FUTURE
What does the submarine cable of the
future look like? The new business case,
innovations and social benefits for
climate and disaster sensors
Christopher R. Barnes,
Chair, ITU-WMO-UNESCO IOC Joint Task Force,
Professor Emeritus, School of Earth and Ocean
Sciences,
University of Victoria, Canada
crbarnes@uvic.ca
http://www.itu.int/ITU-T/climatechange
Submarine Networks World 2014, Singapore, 14-15 October 2014
Main elements of the talk
(and accompanying SNW White Paper)
1. What does the submarine cable of the future look
like?
– Drivers
– Technology
– Geographic connectivity
2. The new innovations: green cable systems
3. The societal benefits in adding sensors for climate
and disaster monitoring
– Climate change and Disaster mitigation
4. The new business case
5. Facilitation by the ITU-WMO-UNESCO IOC Joint Task
Force (JTF)
1. What does the submarine cable of the
future look like?
• Drivers: Global population growth, economic development of
the BRICs, international trade agreements (Canada-EU, USAEU, Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement), lower cost of cable data
transmission, global financial market trading, global security
and privacy concerns
• Technology: Ongoing surge in ICT developments, use of
Internet, miniaturization of components, increased video
services, increased data transmission capacity of fibres,
sophistication of hand-held devices, and new breakthrough
potentials
• Geographic connectivity: Wider geographic cable coverage
throughout the oceans (southern hemisphere; around Africa,
Australia, South America, India, Canadian/US Arctic) and
between island states (Caribbean, Southern Asia, Pacific); the
move to offshore routing to avoid permitting issues in densely
populated coastal regions
What does the submarine cable of the
future look like?
• Drivers: Global population growth, economic development of the
BRICs, international trade agreements (Canada-EU, USA-EU,
Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement), lower cost of cable data
transmission, global financial market trading, global security and
privacy concerns.
World population stabilization unlikely this century:
Gerland et al., Science 2014
What does the submarine cable of the
future look like?
• Technology: Ongoing surge in ICT developments, increased use of
Internet, miniaturization of components, increased video services,
increased data transmission capacity of fibres, sophistication of
hand-held devices, security issues, and new breakthrough
potentials.
What does the submarine cable of the
future look like?
• Geographic connectivity: Wider geographic cable coverage
throughout the oceans (southern hemisphere; around Africa,
Australia, South America, India, Canadian/US Arctic) and between
island states (Caribbean, Southern Asia, Pacific); the move to
offshore routing to avoid permitting issues in densely populated
coastal regions).
Future systems: Arctic Fibre’s proposed cable
route (Japan to UK) via the Arctic
Northern Hemisphere September
sea ice extent
Examples of proposed submarine cables:
Arctic Fibre’s proposed cable system
Examples of proposed submarine cables:
The trans-Pacific FASTER cable network
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August 11, 2014 – A consortium of six global companies announced commercial
agreements to build and operate a new Trans-Pacific cable system (USD $300m)
called “FASTER” with NEC Corporation as system supplier. This network will connect
the US to two landing locations in Japan and feature the latest high-quality 6-fiberpair cable and optical transmission technologies, with initial design capacity of 60Tb/s
(100Gb/s x 100 wavelengths x 6 fiber-pairs).
This new cable system will be landed at Chikura and Shima in Japan and will feature
seamless connectivity to many neighboring cable systems to extend the capacity
beyond Japan to other Asian locations. US connections will extend the system to
major hubs covering the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle areas.
The six-company consortium is comprised of China Mobile International, China
Telecom Global, Global Transit, Google, KDDI and SingTel.
Examples of proposed submarine cables:
Digicel’s submarine cable to connect Papua New
Guinea, Palau, Federated States of Micronesia,
Nauru, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia,
Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa and Cook
Islands, Sydney
September 1st 2014 - DIGICEL CALLS FOR PUBLIC
PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS TO BUILD NEW SUBMARINE
FIBRE OPTIC CABLE TO CONNECT ALL PACIFIC
ISLANDS
• Cable is necessary to bring broadband Internet access to Islanders
and proper connectivity for business users to promote economic
growth and bridge the Digital Divide for Small Island Developing
States in the Pacific
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Examples of proposed submarine cables
Alcatel-Lucent starts construction of Sea-Me-We 5 undersea cable system
Turnkey multi-million dollar contract is in force and calls for Alcatel-Lucent to deploy segments
from Sri Lanka to France. Construction starts for an expected ready for service in 2016. 20,000km
system from Singapore to France.
The South East Asia-Middle East-Western Europe 5 (SEA-ME-WE 5) consortium has the contract
for the deployment of the SEA-ME-WE 5 undersea cable system spanning 20,000 km from
Singapore to France has come into force.
The AAE-1 system will connect Hong Kong, Djibouti, UAE, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand,
India, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Greece, Italy and France using the 100
Gigabits per second technology. The cable will have an overall capacity of 40 Terabits per second
and less latency than the current undersea cables between Asia and Europe.
SAT-3/WASC/SAFE Consortium and Alcatel-Lucent Complete Upgrade of Cable System
Linking Europe to the West Coast of Africa
Increased speeds boost ability of 14,350km cable system to meet growing demand for broadband
services and connectivity.
NTT, NEC, and Fujitsu Move Forward on Commercialization of World's Top-Level, 400Gbpsclass Optical Transmission Technology
Success in test of ultra-high-speed optical transmission up to distances of 10,000km.
Hawaiian Telcom Joins New Submarine Cable Consortium Linking Southeast Asia and US
Provides new growth opportunities and secures low cost network capacity; 100Gbps.
Success in test of ultra-high-speed optical transmission
up to distances of 10,000km
SEA-US Trans-Pacific Submarine Cable System Route
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Examples of proposed submarine cables:
SubPartners APX cable systems
APX-East is a four fibre-pair system using state of the art ultra-long haul design
delivering 10Tbps per fibre pair. It will connect Sydney, Australia to California,
USA with branches to several Pacific Islands. The 12,700km system has initial
design capacity of up to 40Tbp/s and can be deployed with seabed sensor
technology enabling the early detection of seismic events. It is expected to be
Ready for Service (RFS) Q2 2017.
APX-Central subsea cable, independent of all existing trans-Australia routes, will
offer true diversity, security and connectivity into poorly served states such as
Tasmania with future options for South Australia.
APX-West is a four fibre-pair system using state of the art ultra-long haul design
delivering much needed capability and resiliency to the region. It will connect
Perth, Australia to Changi North, Singapore with planned branches to Jakarta,
Indonesia and Christmas Island. The system is 4,700km long, with initial design
capacity of up to 32Tbp/s. It is expected to be Ready for Service (RFS) by Q2
2015.
2. The new innovations: green cable systems
Establishing the JTF
• The International Telecommunication Union (ITU), World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and UNESCO
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) organized
the 1st Workshop on Using Submarine Telecommunications Cables
for Ocean and Climate Monitoring and Disaster Warning in
September 2011, in Rome, Italy.
• This workshop closed with the adoption of a Call to Action inviting
ITU, UNESCO IOC and WMO to establish and coordinate a Joint
Task Force (JTF):
“To develop trans-ocean mini observatories to measure
seafloor temperatures and hazards over several decades”
The new innovations: green cable systems
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Add sensors to repeatered cables
On new and refurbished systems
P, T and accel. sensors
Small, reliable, robust, not serviced
Real-time data over decades
Addressing climate change and
hazards
Submarine cable systems installed TE SubCom
Cable installation ASN
Subsea cable repeater
TE SubCom
Subsea pressure sensors: examples
RBRduo BPR is a submersible depth logger
(sonde, recorder) that is self-contained,
accurate and autonomous. RBRduo BPR is
calibrated to an accuracy of ± 0.01% full
scale, and is available to depth ratings up to
7000m; uses Paroscientific Digiquartz depth
gauge.
Paroscientific Digiquartz® Depth Sensors
offer accurate depth measurements to
7000m for use in wave and tide gauges,
tsunami detection, seabed subsidence, etc.
Typical application accuracy of 0.01% is
achieved, with excellent long-term stability, 1
x 10–8 resolution, low power consumption,
and high reliability.
Over 1000 deployed on DONET, Japan.
Sensor packages integrated with repeaters:
Technical challenges can be handled
HMN
3. The societal benefits in adding sensors
for climate and disaster monitoring
Societal and environmental issues:
• Climate change – ocean temperature and circulation
• Sea level rise – hazard for coastal states and cities
• Disaster mitigation – tsunami monitoring throughout
ocean basins and coastal margins
• Some past trends and disturbing future
predictions….(next slides)
Temperature increase and cumulative
carbon emissions
IPCC
Great ocean conveyor belt
18
IPCC WG 1 2013
IPCC WG 1 2013
Global mean sea-level increase
• Sea-level rise in not uniform around the world, in part due to factors of thermal
expansion and attraction of ice cap mass
• The Atlantic Ocean may be storing vast amounts of heat (red), keeping global
surface temperatures from rising.
IPCC WG 1 2013
Kintisch 2014 Science
Global mean surface temperature from NOAA, as
anomalies relative to 1900–1999 plotted with linear trends
for 1970–2013 (blue) and 1998–2013 (red).
Trenberth et al. 2014, Nature Climate
Change
Coastal/infrastructure/ecosystem
destruction by tsunamis and submarine
slope failures
• Several major tsunamis occurred in the last decade,
notably associated with megathrust earthquakes
between Mw 7.7 and 9.1, in Sumatra (2004), Java
(2006), US Samoa (2009), Mantawai (2010), Chile
(2010) and Japan (2011) resulting in severe loss of life
and billions of dollars of anthropogenic, ecosystem and
environmental damage
• Reducing such losses and mitigating damage is a key
factor in developing tsunami warning systems (Bernard
and Robinson, 2009; Whitmore, 2009)
26 Dec. 2004
tsunami, Indonesia
from offshore
Mw 9.1 earthquake
Devastating effects of the 11
March 2011 tsunami, northern
Japan, generated by an
offshore Mw 9 earthquake
Recent tsunamis: travel times and vast extent
Travel times of the 26 December 2004
tsunami, Indonesia, generated by an offshore
Mw 9.1 earthquake
Travel times of the 11 March 2011
tsunami, northern Japan, generated by
an offshore Mw 9 earthquake
Deep-ocean
assessment
and reporting of
Tsunamis
(DART buoys)
NOAA
4. The new business case
• Building a new business case: assessing financial
threats of climate change and tsunami disaster
(society/governments/insurance/industry)
• Establishing the value of Green Cable Systems:
evaluation for each major new cable system: large- vs.
small-scale systems
• Linking key stakeholders: cable owners and suppliers
with international and national agencies/NGOs
responsible for social and economic benefits, monitoring
and disasters
• Facilitation by JTF with ITU/WMO/UNESCO IOC
Global climate inaction will mean economic
turmoil for South Asia, warns bank
• The impacts of climate change are likely to result in huge
economic, social and environmental damage to South
Asian countries, compromising their growth potential and
poverty reduction efforts (Asian Development Bank, 2014,
160p.)
• To avoid the damage that is expected if the world takes no
action on climate change, South Asia would have to spend
nearly $40 billion per year by 2050 on adaptation
measures, or nearly half a percentage point of average
annual GDP. By 2100, the costs would have to increase to
$73 billion per year, or roughly nine-tenths of a point of
GDP
Report Tallies Cost of Delaying Action on
Climate Change
• The US White House report (29 July 2014) “The Cost of Delaying
Action to Stem Climate Change” notes:
• Delaying the implementation of mitigation policies to stem climate
change could significantly increase economic damages. A delay that
results in a warming of 3°C above preindustrial levels, instead of 2°,
could increase economic damages by approximately 0.9 percent of
global output.
• That 0.9% of the estimated 2014 gross domestic product is
approximately $150 billion, and incremental costs of an additional
warming would be even greater. Costs would be incurred annually
because of permanent damage from increased climate change due
to delayed action.
Randy Showstack, Eos, Vol. 95, No. 31, 5 August 2014, p. 280.
Fukushima Nuclear Accident Report Calls for
More Focus on Threats From Extreme Events
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Nuclear plant licensees and their regulators “must actively seek out and act on
new information about hazards that have the potential to affect the safety of
nuclear plants.” That is the overarching lesson from the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi
nuclear accident in Japan, according to a 24 July 2014 report issued by a U.S.
National Research Council committee.
• The report, entitled Lessons Learned From the Fukushima Nuclear Accident for
Improving Safety of U.S. Nuclear Plants, also focuses on “beyond-design-basis
events,” which include low-frequency but high-magnitude “extreme” events—
such as the earthquake and tsunami that knocked out the Fukushima Daiichi
plant on 11 March 2011 in a one-two punch.
• Further, the nuclear industry and USNRC “should pay particular attention to the
risk from beyond- design events that have the potential to affect large
geographic regions and multiple nuclear plants. These include earthquakes,
tsunamis and other geographically extensive floods, and geomagnetic
disturbances.”
Randy Showstack, Eos, Vol. 95, No. 31, 5 August 2014, p. 279.
UN Climate Summit, 22 September 2014
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President Obama committed to seeking an ambitious global pact on climate
change with all nations working toward this common goal. “There’s one
issue that will define the contours of this century more dramatically than any
other, and that is the urgent and growing threat of a changing climate.”
“That so many of us are here today is a recognition that the threat from
climate change is serious, it is urgent, and it is growing. Our generation's
response to this challenge will be judged by history, for if we fail to meet it -boldly, swiftly, and together -- we risk consigning future generations to an
irreversible catastrophe.”
“No nation, however large or small, wealthy or poor, can escape the impact
of climate change. Rising sea levels threaten every coastline. More
powerful storms and floods threaten every continent. More frequent
droughts and crop failures breed hunger and conflict in places where
hunger and conflict already thrive. On shrinking islands, families are already
being forced to flee their homes as climate refugees. The security and
stability of each nation and all peoples -- our prosperity, our health, and our
safety -- are in jeopardy. And the time we have to reverse this tide is
running out.”
The Biggest Climate March Ever: 80 New York city blocks
Nearly 400,000
21 September
2014
5. Facilitation through the ITU-WMOUNESCO IOC Joint Task Force (JTF)
JTF, and three sponsoring agencies, willing to
collaborate and facilitate in:
• Linking key stakeholders: cable owners and
suppliers with international and national
agencies/NGOs responsible for social and
economic benefits, monitoring and disasters
• Reviewing proposed green cable systems
• Demonstrator project (JTF Workshop, 16-17
Oct): industry or ocean observatory facilities
ONC and OOI ocean observatory
networks, NE Pacific Ocean
JAMSTEC’s seafloor observatory networks,
DONET 1 and 2, off the Kii Peninsula, Japan
Challenge for the JTF, industry, and
research community
• Coordinate and collaborate for a universal
solution, but tailored to specific deployments
• Search out the funds and potential investors
• Educate governments to facilitate permits and
funding, and to utilize new environmental data
• Continue to raise awareness, educate and
publicize
• Link to other global initiatives and international
agencies
We cannot manage what we do not
measure
Sustained ocean observations are
necessary to:
• Improve scientific knowledge about the
ocean climate and ecosystems, human
impact, and human vulnerability
• Apply that knowledge through:
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early warning for ocean-related hazards
climate forecasts and projections
ecosystem assessment and management
good ocean governance based on sound
science – ensuring a healthy ocean and a
healthy blue economy
Future Earth program: Objective
• To provide the knowledge required for societies in the world to face
risks posed by global environmental change and to seize
opportunities in a transition to global sustainability
THANK YOU!
JTF: Links and further information
• ITU/WMO/UNESCO-IOC Joint Task Force
http://itu.int/ITUT/climatechange/task-force/sc/index.html
• ITU-T and climate change
http://www.itu.int/ITU-T/climatechange
• JTF Workshop (2014, Singapore) on "Green cable systems: new
developments and demonstrator project”
http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-T/Workshops-and-Seminars/jtf-itu-wmounesco-ioc/Pages/default.aspx
• The Secretariat of the ITU/WMO/UNESCO IOC Task Force is provided
by ITU and can be contacted at: greenstandard@itu.int
The Green Cables Q&A Forum now follows with comments first
from the following panel members……
BUILDING CABLES OF THE FUTURE
16:10 Keynote Closing Address
What does the submarine cable of the future look like? The new business
case, innovations and social benefits for climate and disaster sensors
Christopher R. Barnes, JTF Chair and Professor Emeritus, School of
Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Canada
16:30 Closing Green Cables Q&A Forum
Panelists:
• Rhett Butler, Director, Hawai’i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology
• David Meldrum, Vice Chair, ITU/WMO/UNESCO IOC Joint Task Force, and
Scottish Marine Institute
• Stephen Lentz, Director of Network Development, Ocean Specialists Inc.
• Kent Bressie, Partner, Harris, Wiltshire & Grannis LLP
• Michael Costin, Director and Executive Committee Member, International
Cable Protection Committee (ICPC), and Telstra
• Nigel Bayliff, Owner & Principal Consultant, SIN Medida Limited
• John Mariano, Executive Vice President, The David Ross Group
Moderator:
• Christopher R. Barnes, JTF Chair and Professor Emeritus, School of Earth
and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Canada