Global Majority E-Journal
Volume 5, Number 2
(December 2014)
Global Majority E-Journal
About the Global Majority E-Journal
The Global Majority E-Journal is published twice a year and freely available online at:
http://www.american.edu/cas/economics/ejournal/. The journal publishes articles that discuss
critical issues for the lives of the global majority. The global majority is defined as the more than
80 percent of the world’s population living in developing countries. The topics discussed reflect
issues that characterize, determine, or influence the lives of the global majority: poverty,
population growth, youth bulge, urbanization, lack of access to safe water, climate change,
agricultural development, etc. The articles are based on research papers written by American
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AU’s General Education Course: Econ-110—The Global Majority.
Editor
Dr. Bernhard G. Gunter, Assistant Professor, Economics Department, American University;
Washington, DC; and President, Bangladesh Development Research Center (BDRC), Falls
Church, VA, United States. The editor can be reached at gunter@american.edu.
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ISSN 2157-1252
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73
Global Majority E-Journal
Volume 5, Number 2 (December 2014)
Contents
A Clean 5 Gallons a Day Keeps the Doctor Away:
The Water Crisis in Kenya and Rwanda
Kianna Billman
75
Hot Times Ahead: The Effects of Climate Change
on Agriculture in India and Nigeria
Maude M. Fitzmaurice
89
Agriculture in Kenya and Uganda:
Relevance, Behavior, and Performance
Giorgio Zenere
104
No One Wants a Baby Girl:
Analyzing Gendercide in China and India
Samantha Ufret
117
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Global Majority E-Journal, Vol. 5, No. 2 (December 2014), pp. 75-88
A Clean 5 Gallons a Day Keeps the Doctor Away:
The Water Crisis in Kenya and Rwanda
Kianna Billman
Abstract
This article analyzes the impact of the water crisis in Kenya and Rwanda, where the lack of
access to safe water increases mortality rates, especially due to exposure to water-borne
diseases. The multi-faceted nature of the water crisis is discussed in relation to its impact on
health and development. The five major causes of the water crisis will be evaluated, consisting of
poor management of water resources, population growth and urbanization, droughts and floods
that will become increasingly detrimental with future climate change, water contamination, and
a lack of education about safe water consumption. The impact of these major contributors will be
discussed in detail after the presentation of a brief literature review and some empirical
background of both countries. The article closes with some solutions to reduce the short-term
and long-term impacts.
I.
Introduction
The lack of access to clean water is one of the main perpetuators of poverty and inequality in
many developing countries due to the harmful, and often fatal, implications for health, as well as
the highly restrictive effects on economic growth. Kenya is a drought-stricken country of about
43 million people in which an estimated 16 million lack access to safe water and about 10,000
children die each year from diarrhea due to the lack of access to safe water and sanitation. Not
only is the scarcity of water an issue in Kenya, but an unequal distribution of water sources
primarily to planned urban areas and wealthy rural communities has left urban slums and poor
communities in a state of constant deprivation. Recent discoveries of large bodies of
underground water have given Kenyan communities hope for revival. However, the existing
policy framework limits a more equal distribution of this vital resource.
Although Rwanda has a smaller population of 11.5 million, it faces similar problems as 31
percent of their population, or 3.4 million, lack access to clean water and about 3,000 children
die each year from diarrhea caused by a lack of access to safe water and an inadequate sanitation.
Rain is not uncommon in Rwanda, so the main problem is not water supply, but the collection,
75
storage, and catchment systems to capitalize on Rwanda’s natural sources of water.
Decentralization is currently a main focus of the Government of Rwanda to delegate
responsibilities to communities in an attempt to increase self-sufficiency. It has also been found
that an increase in water rates can be afforded by many urban payers, which could then finance
measures to alleviate the lack of clean water access by poor communities.
This article discusses the main causes to the water crisis in Kenya and Rwanda. Following this
introduction, it begins with a brief literature review in section II. Some empirical background
information on both countries is then provided in section III, followed by an analysis of the five
major causes of the water crisis (section IV). Finally, closing statements are made in section V,
focusing on some short-term and long-term solutions.
II.
Brief Literature Review
Given the deep and long lasting water problems in Kenya and Rwanda, there are many useful
publications addressing a variety of issues, including some detailed water sector reports by the
governments of these two countries.1 The following summaries cover some of the more scientific
and analytical publications.
Makutsa et al. (2001) provide a field action report that analyzes the impact of Kenya’s Safe
Water System (SWS) that was implemented in 2001 as a part of the Water, Sanitation, and
Education for Health (WASEH) Project that began in 1998. This consisted of treating water with
sodium hypochlorite (chemical water treatment), a safe storage of household water in improved
clay pots, and other behavioral change techniques. About one third of the communities adopted
chemical water treatment and 18.5 percent adopted the use of the newly innovated clay pots for a
safer water storage. The chemical treatment solutions were sold at US$0.33 and the modified
clay pots were sold at US$2.53 (the equivalent to about 3 to 4 days wage for most individuals). A
significant finding was the importance of marketing and promotional activities in encouraging
the adoption of these new techniques. Social marketing tools were crucial such as posters,
brochures, T-shirts, skits, dancing and visual art performances, athletic tournaments, health
promoters, educational quizzes with prizes, and various other incentives to attract attention to the
new implementations and their overall importance. Sustainability would require continual
monitoring of the safe water and storage practices as well as active promotion of the new
innovations, community mobilization, and constant access to the products. The results of
successful implementation techniques in this project can be applied to other areas of safe water
access and implementation in the future.
O’Reilly et al. (2007) examine a school-based safe water intervention program that was
conducted in Nyanza Province in Western Kenya in 2006 to reduce the occurrence of diarrhea
and to increase knowledge about safe water and hygiene practices. Initial and final evaluations of
almost 400 students and their parents were collected and utilized for determining the
effectiveness of school-based health and awareness programs on home practices. Improvements
were observed as there was an increase from 21 to 65 percent of students who became more
knowledgeable of correct water treatment procedures and knowing when to wash their hands.
There also was an increase from 6 to 14 percent of parents who claimed to be treating their
water, and a reduction of absenteeism in schools by 35 percent. The data gathered from the
1
For example, the Government of Kenya, Ministry of Water and Irrigation (2006) prepared the Kenya National
Water Development Report 2005, a 244 pages long document for the 2nd UN World Water Development Report.
76
intervention program supports the conclusion that school-based safe water and hygiene programs
are effective in improving school and home environments, increasing awareness and knowledge
of safe practices, changing behavior in the home through knowledge transfer from teachers to
students to parents, and reducing absenteeism. Such programs could therefore improve safe
water access and practices in schools with few latrines, insufficient water supplies, poor quality
of water sources, water storage containers that are susceptible to contamination, and a lack of
hand washing stations. The reduction of diarrheal diseases can increase school attendance and
physical wellbeing, ultimately leading to cleaner, more educated, and more prosperous
communities.
Sullivan et al. (2003) discuss the development and application of the Water Poverty Index (WPI)
in relation to implications for local and national policymaking, interventions, and the
prioritization of aid. Target 10 of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is to halve by 2015
the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water, and the WPI is a
means of providing governments and agencies with accurate and transparent information
regarding the progress and problems of a country’s water needs. The WPI for each country takes
into consideration resources (availability of water), access (distance to safe sources), capacity
(effectiveness of water management), use (domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses), and
environment (integrity and ecosystem goods). These categories can be compared a) individually
as components of the WPI or b) together as a whole as given by the overall value of the WPI. In
contrast to other indices, the WPI is locally rather than nationally-oriented, allowing decisionmakers to make impartial choices based on a specific and transparent framework and allowing
communities to lobby for action. Reliance on the WPI can help to monitor progress towards
accomplishing the water target, and external donor assistance can be targeted towards countries
and communities in which their contribution will have the greatest impact.
As Falkenmark and Widstrand (1992) explain in a Population Bulletin, rapid population growth
in poor countries has a major impact on the water crisis in those countries. The climate,
geography, soil type, latitude, and vegetation of different African countries affect water
availability and distribution as well as human activities such as deforestation, agricultural
practices, air pollution, irrigation, and population growth. Poor countries remain in a constant
state of deprivation due to inadequate water resource management, poor sanitation, scanty
hygiene, and a lack of family planning; and all these problems tend to perpetuate poverty. To
improve access to safe water, there must be an implementation of better management to increase
water accessibility and efficient use in the long-term, the establishment of cooperation between
local and international governments and industries, and policies aimed towards reducing fertility
rates to reduce the demographic forces fueling the water crisis.
The changes in water supplies from 1967 to 1997 in various East African urban communities
were examined by Thompson et al. (2000). Both low and high-income communities (receiving
both piped and un-piped sources of water) were examined. Thompson et al. found that water
supplies had deteriorated in most locations from 1967 to 1997 because they received less water
per day, spent more time collecting water, and paid higher prices. Families without piping
receive their water from unprotected sources such as springs, seeps, streams, rivers, and lakes
and are prone to water shortages in dry seasons as well as higher rates of contamination. The
average cost of water is the highest for low-income urban households that receive un-piped water
due to their reliance on vendors and kiosks, which comes at a significant financial cost. The
unequal distribution of piped water services leaves some areas with access to water for only 5
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hours a day, while more affluent areas have 24 hours of service. Furthermore, there are various
other inequalities that result from poor water management and a lack of effective policies.
III.
Empirical Background
Kenya became independent in 1963 through the works of the founding president, Jomo Kenyatta.
Kenya has undergone political struggles from being ruled as a one-party state (by the Kenya
African National Union (KANU)) to constitutional reforms in 2010 that allocated power and
resources to 47 newly created semi-autonomous counties. Kenya is located in Eastern Africa and
has an area of 569,140 square kilometers (sq km). According to data gathered in 2003, 1,032 sq
km of that land is irrigated and about 72.96 cubic meters (m3) of freshwater per person per year
are withdrawn from Kenya’s water sources (CIA, 2014a). Agriculture has been a major factor for
Kenya’s economy as 48 percent of the total land area in 2009 was agricultural, contributing to 27
percent of the nation’s GDP. However, water pollution (from urban and industrial wastes,
pesticides and fertilizers) and soil erosion are constant environmental issues that continue to
affect Kenya today. Uneven rainfall also affects water availability because in the two rainy
seasons (from April to June and October to December) the average annual rainfall varies from 5
inches in the dry regions to 76 inches near Lake Victoria (Encyclopedia of the Nations, 2014a).
Rwanda gained independence from Belgium in 1962. The Hutu genocide of Tutsis in 1994 was
followed by the Tutsi Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) gaining power in the following year. The
first post-genocide elections were held in 1999 and the country joined the Commonwealth (a
voluntary association of 53 independent countries) in 2009. Rwanda is located in Central Africa
and has an area of 24,670 sq km, of which only 96.25 sq km are irrigated (CIA, 2014b). As of
2005, about 17.25 m3 of freshwater per person per year were withdrawn from Rwandan water
sources (CIA, 2014b). Agriculture accounts for about one third of total GDP, and agricultural
land constituted 81 percent of the total land in 2009 (World Bank, 2013). However, periodic
droughts continue to impact agricultural production despite the two rainy seasons (from February
to May and November to December), in which the average annual rainfall may vary from 31
inches to 63 inches (Encyclopedia of the Nations, 2014b).
As shown in Figure 1, both Kenya and Rwanda have increased their GDP per capita (expressed
in purchasing power parity (PPP) in constant 2005 international dollars), although Rwanda has
made more progress than Kenya. In 1980, GDP per capita was US$1,375 in Kenya and US$805
in Rwanda, whereas in 2010 those values rose to US$1,509 in Kenya and US$1,132 in Rwanda.
Hence, GDP per capita increased by only US$134 in Kenya, while it increased US$327 in
Rwanda. Although increasing at a lower and more constant rate, Kenya has maintained a higher
level of GDP per capita than the average low income country (LIC), whereas Rwanda started off
slightly better in 1980 than the average LIC but dropped slightly below the average LIC in GDP
per capita by 2010, due to the severe impact of the 1994 genocide.
As Figure 2 shows, over the last 40 years, life expectancy at birth has been relatively flat in
Kenya but more fluctuating in Rwanda. In 1970, life expectancy at birth was 52 years for Kenya
and 44 years for Rwanda, but by 2010, both increased to 56 and 55 years, respectively. Like for
GDP per capita, Rwanda demonstrated a greater net increase, but Kenya started off with a
greater life expectancy. The similarity in life expectancy at birth by 2010 (the difference of
which was only 1 year) could suggest that living conditions in both countries were similar
enough to induce a similar outcome.
78
Figure 1: GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $) in Kenya, Rwanda, and
LICs, 1980-2010
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013).
Figure 2: Life Expectancy at Birth in Kenya and Rwanda, 1970-2010
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013).
79
Data on literacy rates for the percentage of the total population (ages 15 and above) has been
sporadic in both Kenya and Rwanda, as shown in Figure 3. However, an overall trend of
increasing literacy rates can be seen from 1978 to 2010 in Rwanda, where literacy increased
from 38 percent in 1978 to 71 percent in 2010. In Kenya, literacy rates seem to have been
stagnating around 82 percent during the mid-2000s, and increasing moderately to 87 percent by
2010. As was the case with GDP per capita and life expectancy, Rwanda displayed a greater net
increase than Kenya.
Figure 3: Adult Literacy Rate in Kenya and Rwanda, available years
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013).
IV.
Causes of the Water Crisis
In order to implement effective solutions to the water crisis in Kenya and Rwanda, the major
causes must first be understood. This section analyzes the five major causes: poor management
of water resources, population growth and urbanization, climate change (droughts, floods, and
increases in temperature and rainfall), water contamination (particularly in urban slums), and
little education about water treatment and safety. Areas of focus in implementing solutions are
also outlined when applicable.
IV.1. Management of Water Resources
A report by the World Resources Institute (1994) demonstrated that the availability of freshwater
sources has been declining in many Sub-Saharan Africa countries, including in Kenya and
Rwanda. It was found that freshwater availability per capita was 647 m3 in Kenya and 843 m3 in
Rwanda, as compared to the global standard of 1000 m3, and projections indicated that those
levels would drop to 235 m3 per capita by 2025 if no corrective measures are taken. The lack of
clear policies on water resource management has served to perpetuate the poor water availability
80
conditions despite Kenya’s 1970s government development goal to supply water to the entire
population by 2000, and Rwanda’s Vision 2020 to supply water to the entire population by 2020
(Rwanda’s Management Information System, 2012). Kenya’s Water Policy of 1999 and the
Water Act of 2002 brought about reforms with a renewed focus on the fundamental principles of
Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), and these principles identified key factors to
ensure effective and sustainable water resource management. The key factors were stakeholder
participation, recognition of the vulnerability of water resources, and the consideration of water
as a social and economic good. Kenya’s Water Resource Management Authority (WRMA)
incorporated these goals into operational use in 2005 (WRMA, 2009).
Despite attempts by various organizations to improve water availability, Figure 4 shows that
Rwanda has experienced a reduction from 66 to 65 percent of the population with access to an
improved water source. However, unlike Rwanda, Kenya has experienced an increase from 44 to
59 percent of the population with access to an improved water source. There are significant
differences in improvements between rural and urban populations from 1990 to 2010. The
percentage of the rural population with improved access increased in Kenya from 33 to 52
percent and decreased in Rwanda from 64 to 63 percent. In comparison, the percentage of the
urban population with improved access decreased from 92 to 82 percent in Kenya and also
decreased from 95 to 76 percent in Rwanda (World Bank, 2013).
Figure 4: Population with Access to Safe Water in Kenya and Rwanda, 1990-2010
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013).
To correct failed policy reforms and water management, other challenges must also be addressed
in management approaches in order to take steps toward long-term improvement (Sano, 2012).
Such challenges are as follows:

Insufficient funding and decreasing allocations of the government development budget
for water and sanitation.

Funding agreements with development partners that will end in the near future.

Disparities in access to water in both rural and urban areas.
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
Low sustainability of water supply services in rural areas in conjunction with high
infrastructure rehabilitation costs.

High water tariffs in rural areas and water tariffs in urban areas that do not reflect
operation and maintenance costs.

Unplanned settlements in both urban and rural areas resulting in difficulty in reaching the
entire population.

Rapid increase of urbanization and population growth that leads to unplanned housing
with high costs for water treatment.
An evident factor in many of the aforementioned challenges is population growth and
urbanization, as it affects the population proportions in rural and urban areas.
IV.2. Population Growth and Urbanization
Both Kenya and Rwanda have experienced large levels of population growth in the past 40 years,
which has negatively impacted the water crisis. From 1970 to 2011, the population of Kenya
increased from about 11 million to 41.5 million, and the population of Rwanda increased from
about 4 million to 11 million, as shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5: Total Population in Kenya and Rwanda, 1970-2011
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013).
Not only have the populations grown, but each country has demonstrated active urbanization in
which a proportion of the rural population has migrated into urban cities. For instance, from
1970 to 2011 the percentage of the population that lived in rural areas decreased from 90 to 76
percent in Kenya and also decreased from 97 to 81 percent in Rwanda (World Bank, 2013). The
increased concentration of people in urban areas has resulted in unplanned housing in cities,
raising the cost of water treatment. Population growth in general has had major implications in
both rural and urban settlements because not only are there more individuals who need access to
water, but unplanned settlements that account for the increasing population also lead to a greater
number of areas that lack access to established water systems (African Development Bank
Group, 2012).
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IV.3. Climate Change: Droughts and Floods, Increases in Temperature and Rainfall
Kenya is a drought-stricken country that experiences contrasting impacts, from extreme water
shortages in the dry season to floods in the rainy seasons (from April to June and October to
December). Since 1960, the temperature has increased by 1°C and is expected to increase by
2.8°C by 2060. However, precipitation may have an even greater impact as it is expected that the
annual rainfall will increase by up to 48 percent in some areas. Table 1 shows the observed and
future projected trends in temperature and rainfall, indicating the large-scale impact of global
warming and more extreme temperatures on future generations (McSweeney, New and Lizcano,
2010).
Table 1: Projected Changes in Temperature and Rainfall in Kenya, 2030s-2090s
Source: McSweeney, New and Lizcano (2010).
Rwanda is dependent on rain-fed agriculture for rural sustainability and certain exports (such as
tea and coffee), and half of its electricity is hydro powered. There has been a 1.4°C increase in
temperature since 1970 – which is higher than the global average – and it is expected that the
temperature will increase up to 2.5°C by 2050. During the rainy seasons from February to May
and November to December, it is predicted that rainfall could increase by 20 percent by 2050,
thus causing landslides, loss of crops, health risks, and damage to infrastructure (Republic of
83
Rwanda, 2011). Figure 6 shows the current precipitation rates in Rwanda, but larger areas
surrounding regions of high precipitation could become more affected in future years by
increases in flooding during the rainy season.
Figure 6: Average Annual Precipitation in Rwanda (mm)
Source: Rwanda Environment Management Authority (2011), Figure 1.3, p. 4.
The striking dichotomy between droughts and floods leads to severe impacts on the Kenyan and
Rwandan communities because the dry season brings more extreme water shortages while the
rainy season can cause floods that lead to damage and contamination of water sources.
Simultaneous increases in temperature can also lead to vector-borne and water-borne diseases,
leading to increased health risks for humans and animals, decreases in crop yields, and negative
impacts in the export sector of the economy (Government of Rwanda, 2011).
Some specific impacts of climate variability have been catchment degradation (which increases
erosion and run-off), the drying up of rivers, receding lake levels, significant siltation of dams
meant for hydropower and water supplies, and the deterioration of water quality (Government of
Kenya, Ministry of Water and Irrigation, 2006). In order to become more resilient to climate
changes, the following issues must be focused on in Kenya and Rwanda:

Irrigation Infrastructure: Such infrastructure allocates more control of water resources to
farmers, therefore reducing susceptibility to changes in rainfall. It also allows for crop
diversification, efficient land and water use, and provides water to dry areas that
otherwise would not receive it.

Stronger Road Networks: Poor quality roads, such as dirt tracks, contribute to loss of
products while in transit and an increased vulnerability of transportation routes in
extreme weather. Constructing and maintaining stronger roads that are more resilient to
extreme weather and future climate changes will promote economic development.
84

Center for Climate Knowledge and Development: Insufficient data about projected
climate changes (especially in Rwanda) prevents the ability to plan for the future,
therefore hindering adaptation to future increases in temperature and rainfall. By
providing more predictions and information, a wider array of policy options will be
available for decision-makers to plan for future adaptation.
IV.4. Water Contamination, Particularly in Urban Slums
Although the water crisis is heavily focused on the lack of a sufficient amount of water, another
key aspect is water quality. Water contamination is a major issue in many urban slums due to the
close proximity of wells (from which water for household use is drawn) and pit latrines (holes
dug into the ground into which excrement falls). Due to population growth and urbanization (as
was discussed in section IV.2. above), increases in the percentage of the population living in
urban cities results in overpopulation, unplanned housing, and ultimately the expansion of slums.
Overcrowding results in the limitation of available land, and therefore wells and pit latrines are
placed at distances that are too close to each other. The short distances between the wells and
latrines allow bacteria and other micro-organisms to invade the water sources from the nearby
latrines, resulting in contamination of communal water sources (Kimani-Murage and Ngindu,
2007).
Urban slums are informal settlements that do not receive governmental drainage, water,
sewerage, and waste services, and the mortality rates are therefore higher than in rural
populations because rural areas have enough land to safely separate water sources from waste
disposal. Human excreta can cause diseases such as cholera, typhoid, hepatitis, polio,
cryptosporidiosis, ascariasis, and schistosomiasis; diseases which contribute to the one-third of
deaths in developing countries that are caused by drinking contaminated water.
Until governmental services and proper infrastructure are available to all residents regardless of
their location of residency, certain guidelines should be followed in well and latrine placement.
When coexisting, wells should be located no less than 2 meters (about 7 feet) above the water
table and no less than 15 meters from pit latrines, as studies have shown that the greater the
distance of separation, the lower the risk of contamination.
Table 2: Distance between Pit Latrine and Wells in Langas Slum, Kenya
Source: Kimani-Murage and Ngindu (2007).
In one study done in Langas, Kenya, conducted by Kimani-Murage and Ngindu (2007), 192
households were selected and 31 shallow wells were tested, along with 4 deep wells and 5 taps
(nearby kiosks). The World Health Organization (WHO) defines acceptable standards for
85
drinking water as water in which there are no traces of E.coli or coliform bacteria. In this
experiment, all of the shallow wells contained traces of these micro-organisms, indicating that
the coliforms invaded the water sources via transport from the closely located pit latrines through
the soil and into the wells. Similar studies have been conducted in Rwanda as well, showing
contamination of water sources as a result of run-off from industrial and domestic waste
(Namuwaya, 2012). As Table 2 shows, the contamination of the wells in Kenya was most likely
due to their placement in relation to the pit latrines.
However, about one-third of the children were accustomed to excreting openly on the ground
and many of the wells did not have adequate coverage for protection, resulting in the
contamination of the wells from run-off of the excrement in the presence of rain. There could
have been additional sources of contamination, such as contact between the children’s dirty
possessions and the water, withdrawing water with unsanitary containers, deposits of animal
excrement near the wells, and the use of wells to wash clothes. Also, only 42 percent of wellusers admitted to boiling their drinking water, leading to the next issue of the importance of
education about water safety.
IV.5. Lack of Education
One of the root causes of the contraction of water-borne diseases is the lack of education about
clean water and water treatment. Many individuals in developing countries use whatever water
sources that are available, due to the lack of adequate resources as well as the lack of knowledge
about the implications of drinking unsafe water. The SWS intervention program (as discussed in
section II above) is a good example of how school-based education about water treatment and
safe practices can lead to increased levels of safe practices in schools as well as in home
environments. O’Reilly et al. (2007) described the result of the intervention as an increase in
knowledge of correct water treatment from 21 to 65 percent of students, in conjunction with an
increase in the percentage of parents who claimed to be treating their water. By emphasizing the
importance of water safety interventions in developing countries, rates of water-borne disease
contraction can be lowered and death tolls can be reduced until permanent infrastructure and
government provided services can be provided to the entirety of every population.
V.
Conclusion
Kenya and Rwanda are significantly impacted by the water crisis due to factors such as poor
management of water resources, population growth and urbanization, climate change (that
involves more droughts during the dry season, more floods during the rainy season, and increases
in temperature), water contamination, and education about water treatment and safety. Changes
in policy implementation and construction of more widespread and strengthened infrastructure
can help to reduce the impacts of low water availability and poor management, but future
conditions may further jeopardize the populations of these countries due to global warming.
Steps must therefore be taken to create effective catchment, storage, and irrigation systems that
will provide better adaptation to unexpected weather conditions.
Population growth will also continue to plague Kenya and Rwanda, even though both countries
have made some progress in the last three decades with reducing their very high fertility rates,
which exceeded 8 children per women in the early 1970s for Kenya and during all of the 1970s
in Rwanda. A renewed focus on the importance of education for girls is essential to reduce
fertility rates further and stabilize the population. Services to assist in family planning will also
86
contribute to reducing population growth further, and thus heightened emphasis must be placed
on the future educational and informational services for female children.
Finally, until long-term management, policy, and infrastructure changes can be made, short-term
solutions must be employed. Such short-term solutions consist of educational awareness about
safe water drinking and treatment habits, increased availability of chemical water treatments, and
an increased provision of clay pots for safer water storage along with filtration systems to clean
drinking water. These relatively simple solutions will not only serve to reduce naivety to the
water crisis, but they will also minimize the incidences of water contamination and contraction
of harmful and fatal diseases.
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Global Majority E-Journal, Vol. 5, No. 2 (December 2014), pp. 89-103
Hot Times Ahead: The Effects of Climate
Change on Agriculture in India and Nigeria
Maude M. Fitzmaurice
Abstract
India and Nigeria are developing countries that are already suffering from the negative effects of
climate change. Both countries have huge agricultural sectors that are vital to their economies.
India has the second largest farm output in the world. In Nigeria, 70 percent of its population is
employed in the agricultural sector. This article compares and contrasts how climate change is
affecting the essential food production in both India and Nigeria and the efforts each country is
taking to minimize the negative effects of climate change.
I.
Introduction
India and Nigeria are developing countries in which agriculture is a staple of their economies.
Both countries are highly vulnerable to climate change effects such as higher temperatures and
extreme variations in precipitation, which will have drastic effects on their economies and the
livelihoods of their citizens. The agricultural sector in both India and Nigeria absorbs a
significant portion of their labor forces and still constitutes a considerable share of their gross
domestic product (GDP). A large portion of those employed in the agricultural sector live below
the international poverty line ($1.25 per day in PPP), and therefore the effects of climate change
will have a serious impact on the daily lives of these individuals.
With the effects of climate change worsening, India and Nigeria are anticipating declines in crop
production and value, increased imports, increased debt, and ultimately a decline in GDP and a
decrease in the livelihoods of the citizens of these countries. The effects will be felt by all sectors
of the population as well as by countries trading with them. Efforts are being made to alleviate
these effects in both countries. However, due to the urgency of this issue, more extensive
projects and an increase in awareness are essential in lessening the negative impacts of climate
change.
This article provides first a brief review of the literature and then some empirical background on
the socio-economic development of India and Nigeria. The discussion examines (1) the carbon
dioxide emissions, (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, and (3) the efforts to alleviate
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the effects of climate change. The last section draws conclusions on measures both governments
can take.
II.
Brief Literature Review
Given the severe impact climate change has had on the agricultural sectors of India and Nigeria,
it is not surprising that there is an array of scientific articles and reports. Some of the more recent
publications are summarized as follows:

Panda (2009) assesses the vulnerabilities of climate change in India. The effects of
climate change are severely impacting food production around the world because of its
effect on natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems. In its fourth assessment report,
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change claimed that the global mean
temperature will increase anywhere between 1.4°C and 5.8°C by 2100. This will be
detrimental to many countries around the world, especially India, a developing country in
which agriculture is a staple of the economy. It was calculated that a 2°C rise in mean
temperature and a 7 percent increase in mean precipitation will reduce the net revenue of
the whole country of India by 12.3 percent. This is a very serious issue for India, as
agriculture provides employment for two-thirds of its total workforce. Climate change is
also likely to cause more cyclones, monsoons, droughts, and floods, which will greatly
affect India’s crop yields in coastal cities that are at or slightly above sea level. The
vulnerability of India’s economy and the effects of climate change on its people need to
be evaluated further.

Thaker and Leiserowitz (2014) examine the shifting discourses of climate change in
India. India has 17 percent of the world’s population and is the world’s third largest
emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). India’s carbon dioxide emissions from fuel
combustion tripled between 1990 and 2011; and these emissions are estimated to increase
2.5 times between 2008 and 2035. Unfortunately, developing countries, including India,
have refused to sign a legally binding treaty to lower GHG emissions because of issues
of equality, low per-capita emissions, and the demand that the responsibility to lower
emissions first rests with the developed countries. However, in 2007, it appeared that
India shifted its stance on addressing climate change issues when its prime minister
created a Council on Climate Change and authorized eight national missions to address
energy security as part of the Nation Action Plan on Climate Change. Two of the main
issues that have been the source of debate for Indian negotiators are increasing energy
access and energy security in an environmentally friendly way. However, India is a
country where 40 percent of the population does not have access to electricity and where
there has been a rise in economic growth and industrial demand for energy. Its leaders are
desperate for a solution that will promote its development objectives of poverty
alleviation and economic growth, while also yielding co-benefits for addressing climate
change effectively. It is hoped that a solution will be found in renewable energy
resources.

Bosello, Campagnola and Eboli (2013) reviews climate change and adaptation applied to
Nigerian agriculture. Climate change in Nigeria will cause a decrease in crop production,
GDP losses starting in 2025, an increase in crop prices, and a higher food dependency on
foreign imports. By 2050, it is predicted that crop production will decline between 4.8
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percent and 7.4 percent, the prices of crops will increase between 17 percent and 32
percent, and agricultural imports will increase between 13 percent and 23 percent. In
order to adapt to these climate changes and to reduce their detrimental effects, a mix of
“soft measures” that are inexpensive and “hard measures” that are very costly like
irrigation expansion need to be implemented. However, the application of these methods
needs to be highly researched and planned carefully in order to avoid creating a costly
and ineffective situation.

Apata, Samuel and Adeola (2009) analyze the perception of and adaptation to climate
change among arable food crop farmers in South Western Nigeria. Nigeria as a country is
very vulnerable to climate change since its economy is agriculture-based. Because of its
location in Sub-Saharan Africa, which already has characteristically high temperatures,
an increase in the mean temperature and varying extremes of precipitation due to global
warming will have detrimental effects on the Nigerian economy. The coastal regions of
Nigeria are also susceptible to severe storms and sea-level rise caused by climate change,
which would drastically affect agriculture yields in these areas. The Niger-delta wetlands
have experienced significant damage due to climate change already, as the salt from the
coastal waters has increased soil salinity, thus making it impossible to grow crops on this
land. Logit regression analysis was used to analyze how farmers in this area are adapting
to climate change. It was found that multiple and mixed crop-livestock was the most
common practice, diverging away from the typical mono-cropping used by most farmers.
In order to enhance the current adaptation to climate change, there needs to be easily
accessible information on the causes and effects of global warming, and a credit or grant
facility needs to be established to empower the farmers.

A World Bank (2013a) report reviews the risks a warming climate poses to agriculture,
water resources, and health in India. In India, over 60 percent of crops are rain-fed, which
makes these agricultural areas very vulnerable to changes in precipitation due to climate
change. With 15 percent of India’s groundwater tables already overexploited, changes in
precipitation will further affect the water supply. It has been predicted that the mean
temperature will rise by 2°C globally by 2040; if this happens, crop production in South
Asia is expected to drop by 12 percent. This will then cause a decline in food availability,
which will cause severe health problems, including an increase in childhood stunting by
35 percent by 2050. As a result, the World Bank is supporting projects to help
communities conserve their watersheds better, and it is sponsoring groups that are
developing environmentally sustainable hydropower in India. However, if the warming is
held below 2°C, there is a chance that the worst effects stemming from climate change
can be avoided. Action on climate change needs to happen fast, though, because this
window of opportunity to stabilize the global warming is closing quickly.
III.
Empirical Background
India is the world’s third largest economy if GDP is measured in purchasing power parity (PPP),
and it is home to nearly 1.3 billion people. Nigeria is considerably smaller; it is the world’s 20th
largest economy if measured by the same parameter, and it is home to nearly 170 million people.
As shown in Figure 1, Nigeria’s GDP per capita decreased from 1980 to 1984 and then stagnated
during most of the 1990s and early 2000s. It is only in the last ten years that Nigeria made
significant progress in increasing income per capita. India’s GDP per capita grew moderately
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during the 1980s and more rapidly since India’s economic reforms went into effect in 1991.
India’s GDP per capita in 2011 was 3.6 times its GDP per capita in 1980, while that of Nigeria
has only increased 1.6 times during the same period, as seen in Figure 1 below. Although India’s
GDP per capita was about half of Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 1980, today, India’s GDP per
capita is about 70 percent higher than that of Nigeria. In both cases, these countries have made
significant progress in increasing their GDP per capita during the last decade. However, due to
the detrimental effects caused by climate change, these countries’ economies are expected to be
hit hard in the coming years and it will be very difficult to maintain these high growth rates.
Figure 1: GDP per capita (in PPP) for India and Nigeria, 1980-2011
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013b).
Both countries also made progress in increasing their life expectancy, though similar to the
differences in GDP per capita, Nigeria’s progress has been uneven. As seen in Figure 2 below,
between 1960-2011, India increased its life expectancy by 23 years, while Nigeria’s increased by
only 13.4 years. Hence, there is now a large difference between the life expectancy in India and
Nigeria.
Figure 2: Total Life Expectancy at Birth (years), 1960-2011
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013b).
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Even though the data are very limited for adult total literacy rates, some interesting observations
can be made. As shown in Figure 3, while Nigeria’s literacy rate was 7 percent higher than that
of India in 1991, by the early 1990s, India’s literacy rate surpassed Nigeria’s by about 6 percent.
However, the data seem to indicate that India has not made much progress in terms of literacy
between 2001 and 2006 (literacy rates increased by only 1.7 percent), while Nigeria has made
considerable progress during 2003 and 2010, increasing its literacy rates by 6.6 percent. In both
of these countries, the total literacy rate of adults is still only about 60 percent, a little over half
of these populations. Therefore, these countries still have a long way to go to improve their
education systems and thus the livelihoods of their citizens.
Figure 3: Literacy Rate, Adult Total in India and Nigeria Between 1981-2010
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013b).
IV.
Discussion
IV.1. Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions in India and Nigeria
Climate change is affecting countries around the world, but it poses the greatest threat
to developing countries, like India and Nigeria, whose economies are based on agriculture and to
those countries already in high-temperature areas.
India supports 17 percent of the world’s population and was the world’s third largest emitter of
GHGs in 2010 (Thaker and Leiserowitz, 2014). India’s GHG emissions have increased since
1992, when India was ranked the world’s sixth largest emitter (U.S. Energy Information
Administration [USEIA], 2011). Its CO2 emissions from fuel combustion alone tripled between
1990 and 2011, and they are estimated to increase by 2.5 times between 2008 and 2035 (Thaker
and Leiserowitz, 2014).
Nigeria is the world’s 44th largest emitter of GHGs (USEIA, 2011). In 1992, it was ranked as
number 35 (USEIA, 2011). This reduction in emissions is due to several programs that the
Nigerian Government has implemented to reduce CO2 emissions. As seen in Figure 4 below,
while Nigeria’s CO2 emissions have been stagnating overall since the mid-1970s, India’s CO2
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emissions have been steadily increasing since 1960. As shown in Figure 5, these different trends
are (despite a more visible volatility for Nigeria) the same if looking at CO2 emissions per capita.
Hence, if provisions and regulations on these emissions are not put in place and monitored,
India’s contribution to global climate change is only expected to become more significant and
problematic.
Figure 4: CO2 Emissions (in thousands of metric tons), 1960-2009
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013b).
Figure 5: CO2 Emissions per capita (in metric tons), 1960-2009
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013b).
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IV.2. Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture
India is very vulnerable to climate change as the average annual temperature in the majority of
India is between 25°C and 27.5°C or 77°F and 87°F.1 The World Bank (2013a) has predicted
that by 2040, the mean global temperature will increase by 2°C. A rise of 2°C in India would
make the average annual temperatures in most areas range from 80.6°F to 90.6°F. However,
according to Panda (2009), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claimed that
the global mean temperature will increase anywhere between 1.4°C and 5.8°C by 2100 in its
fourth assessment report, predicting an even higher potential temperature increase. In a climate
with these temperatures and varied precipitation, agriculture will no longer be able to provide the
important resources for the country. Figure 6 below demonstrates the vulnerabilities of districts
in India to climate change based on their adaptive capacity and climate sensitivity. A large
portion has the highest possible climate change vulnerability, indicated by a reddish color in
Figure 6. With 54 percent of India’s population depending on agriculture for their livelihoods,
the effects of climate change will be detrimental to India as a whole (Birthal, Joshi, Roy and
Thorat, 2007).
Figure 6: District-Level Mapping of Climate Change Vulnerability
(measured as a composite of adaptive capacity and climate sensitivity under exposure to climate change)
Source: http://www.sciencedirect.com.proxyau.wrlc.org/science/article/pii/S095937800400010X.
1
http://www.weatherbase.com/weather/city.php3?c=IN
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The percentage of agriculture that makes up India’s GDP has declined from 40 percent in
1980/1981 to 18 percent in 2012 (Birthal et al., 2007; World Bank, 2013b). However, agriculture
remains an important sector for India. The agricultural sector provides 60 percent of the labor
workforce, making agriculture a very important sector to sustain (World Bank, 2011). India has
116 million farms, most of which are small (less than 2 hectares), and most of these farms belong
to households below the poverty line (World Bank, 2011). As of 2007, 72 percent of India’s
population lived in these rural areas, and three-fourths of these rural households rely on
agriculture for their livelihoods (Birthal et al., 2007).
India is among the top three global producers of a broad range of crops, including wheat, rice,
pulses (chickpeas, pigeon peas, lentils, dry peas, etc.), cotton, peanuts, fruits, and vegetables. 2 In
2011-12, India produced 104 million mega-tons of rice, making up 22.88 percent of the global
rice production. This is the highest rice production for India since 2001/2002 (Government of
India, 2012). However, India’s food imports are expected to increase in the coming years. Figure
7 below depicts the import sensitivity of districts in India. It shows that a significant portion of
India is ranked to have the highest import sensitivity (in dark purple), meaning that these places
have a high competition from other country suppliers of the same goods (O'Brien et al., 2004).
With the effects of climate change becoming more noticeable all over the world, the crop supply
other countries are able to export will diminish and will leave countries like India struggling to
find the goods they need to feed their populations.
Figure 7: Import-Sensitivity Map
(measured as a composite of distance to ports, cropping patterns, and crop productivity)
Source: http://www.sciencedirect.com.proxyau.wrlc.org/science/article/pii/S095937800400010X
2
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (2013).
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One key supporting fact of India’s increased food insecurity is rising food prices. As seen in
Figure 8 below, the food price inflation in India has fluctuated since 1980, but it was the highest
for consumers in 2010/2011, with a jump in wholesale prices as well.
Figure 8: Food Price Inflation in India, 1980-81 to 2010-11
Source: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (2012).
In India, over 60 percent of crops are rain-fed, which makes these agricultural areas very
vulnerable to changes in precipitation due to climate change (World Bank, 2013a). It was
calculated that a 2°C rise in mean temperature and a 7 percent increase in mean precipitation will
reduce the net revenue of the whole country of India by 12.3 percent (Panda, 2009). Changes in
precipitation will also affect the water supply, as 15 percent of India’s groundwater tables are
already overexploited. It has been predicted that the mean temperature will rise by 2°C globally
by 2040 and if this happens, crop production in South Asia is expected to drop by 12 percent.
This will then cause a decline in food availability, which will cause severe health problems
including an increase in childhood stunting by 35 percent by 2050 (World Bank, 2013a).
In Nigeria, climate change will also cause a decrease in crop production, GDP losses (projected
to start in 2025), an increase in crop prices, and a higher food dependency on foreign imports
(Bosello, Campagnola, and Eboli, 2013). By 2050, it is predicted that crop production will
decline between 4.8 percent and 7.4 percent, the prices of crops will increase between 17 percent
and 32 percent, and agricultural imports will increase between 13 percent and 23 percent
(Bosello et al., 2013). It is also predicted that by 2050, the GDP of Nigeria could drop by 4.5
percent (Cervigni, Valentini, and Santini, 2013).
Climate change in Nigeria is not only causing increased temperatures and less precipitation, but
the poor response to these issues is causing conflicts to break out (Figure 9). As seen in Figure 8
below, the poor responses to these issues are creating resource shortages, more sickness and
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death, more hunger, more unemployment, and low economic opportunity among many other
problems. The result of this is an ever-worsening cyclical pattern, and therefore not addressing
these problems only creates more problems. In order to mitigate these conflicts, dealing with the
effects of climate change needs to be become a priority of the Nigerian Government (Sayne,
2011).
Figure 9: Climate Change and Conflict in Nigeria: A Basic Casual Mechanism
Source: http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Climate_Change_Nigeria.pdf.
Nigeria was once a great exporter of agricultural goods. Between 1962 and 1968, export
crops were Nigeria’s main foreign exchange earner. Nigeria was the number one exporter in
palm oil globally and the exporter of 47 percent of all groundnuts, putting it ahead of the United
States (Green, 2013). Unfortunately, in the 1960s, Nigeria turned to oil, causing its agricultural
sector and main source of income to dwindle (Green, 2013). Since 2012, Nigeria has
imported over $7 billion of agricultural food products and commodities per year, and it was the
second largest importer of wheat from the United States in 2010/2011 (David, 2012; Nzeka,
2013).
However, agriculture is still a staple of Nigeria’s economy, with mass production of maize,
millet, rice, and sorghum (Osagie, 2013). Akinwumi Adesina, Nigeria's Minister for
Agriculture, stated: “Only 2 percent of all bank lending in Nigeria goes into agriculture—a sector
that is 40 percent of GDP and 70 percent of employment.”3 If the effects of climate change are
not mitigated, the share of agriculture in GDP will decline from 40 percent to 15 percent,
3
Green (2013), paragraph 14.
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(Cervigni et al., 2013). However, Adesina has recently adopted reforms for agriculture, from
which he is hoping to add 20 million metric tons to the domestic food supply by 2015 and create
2.5 million jobs through agriculture (Green, 2013).
In October of 2013, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) warned Nigeria of
an imminent food security threat (Osagie, 2013). Adesina’s reforms therefore need to be
implemented as quickly as possible and in the most effective way to ensure that the
circumstances in Nigeria do not escalate further. Figure 10 below shows just how much land is
used for agriculture in India and Nigeria. In India and Nigeria, 60 and 80 percent, respectively, of
the total land is used for agriculture. This shows how widespread the agriculture sector is in these
countries and how important it is to maintain it. The land used for agriculture has remained about
constant for India since 1975, indicating that India is likely using all the land suitable for
agriculture. In Nigeria, the percentage of land used for agriculture has increased slightly during
the 1980s and early 1990s, but has undergone some volatility since. The sharp decline during the
last few years for which such data are available is certainly an alarming indicator, though further
examination of the reasons for the decline is needed.
Figure 10: Agricultural Land (percent of total land area), 1970-2009
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013b).
IV.3. Efforts to Alleviate Effects of Climate Change
In 1985, India introduced the Comprehensive Crop Insurance Scheme (CCIS) to provide
insurance to farmers due to the extreme weather conditions (like droughts and monsoons) they
already faced at that time. In 1999, the National Agricultural Insurance Scheme, an updated risk
management tool, replaced CCIS, and now insurance is provided by the Agriculture Insurance
Company of India (AICI), which is a public crop insurance firm. AICI offers insurance on food
crops, oilseeds, and specific commercial crops based on an area yield. AICI is the only company
providing such a service to Indian farmers (World Bank, 2011).
Before 2013, India was unwilling to set forth efforts to reduce its GHG emissions because
poverty eradication and social and economic development were considered to be first and over99
riding priorities (Worldwatch Institute, 2013). However, if the drastic impacts of climate change
are not addressed, poverty will only become a more difficult problem to fix. Luckily, in July
2013, India announced that, along with 16 other countries, it would prevent the global average
temperature from increasing by 2°C (Worldwatch Institute, 2013). India has also presented 20
initiatives to address at a domestic level, which are a part of India’s “National Action Plan on
Climate Change” (Worldwatch Institute, 2013). This action plan also includes eight national
missions (the solar mission, mission for enhanced energy efficiency in industry, mission on
sustainable habitat, water mission, mission for sustaining the Himalayan ecosystem, mission for
a “green India,” mission for sustainable agriculture, and a mission on strategic knowledge for
climate change) to lessen India’s impact on climate change (Government of India, 2013).
Nigeria, a large importer of agricultural products, especially wheat, is about to sign a bio-safety
bill, which will allow for the managing and controlling of agricultural biotechnology in Nigeria
in order to guarantee safety for the environment and human health. This bill will also make it
possible to assess the risk of genetically engineered (GE) organisms before the release, including
Living Modified Organisms (LMOs) like food products. In anticipation of this bill being signed,
field trials are being conducted for cow pea, sorghum, and cassava varieties of wheat, in order to
increase the domestic production of wheat and to decrease the country’s imports (Nzeka, 2013).
Another program Nigeria has implemented is called Vision 20:2020, within which Nigeria has
set out to become one of the world’s 20 largest economies by 2020 (Cervigni et al., 2013). This
plan will implement irrigation systems applied to 0.6 to 1 million hectares, which will reduce
the effects of climate change in the short run but will not eliminate its long-run effects (Cervigni
et al., 2013). Therefore, irrigation expansion will be coupled with improving the management of
13 to 18 million rain-fed harvested areas, which will alleviate the spending on
irrigation (Cervigni et al., 2013).
Another project being carried out to help Nigeria with the effects of climate change is called
Build Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change (BNRCC), which started as the Canada-Nigeria
Climate Change Capacity Development Project (C-NCCCDP). It had a substantial effect on
raising awareness of climate change effects and by gathering a group of individuals willing to
work on these issues (BNRCC, 2008). The new project intends to increase the awareness by
enhancing the capacity at the individual, corporate, and state levels to implement effective
adaptation strategies, policies, and actions (BNRCC, 2008).
All of the above initiatives that Nigeria has set fourth will aid in the effort to mitigate the effects
of climate change. However, these projects and programs need to be widespread in order to make
any significant changes in Nigeria’s agricultural sector. Nigeria also needs to implement a credit
system for agriculture and an insurance program for farmers, such as that in India, in order to
sustain its agricultural sector.
V.
Conclusion
Agriculture plays a large role in the economies of both India and Nigeria, making up a
significant portion of their GDPs and labor work forces. In fact, it plays a large role around the
world, as 40 percent of the Earth’s land is used for agriculture (Owen, 2005). However, due to
the increasingly evident effects of climate change, such as extremes in temperature and
precipitation, both India and Nigeria are now very vulnerable. Both of these countries have
created programs to alleviate these effects before they become irreversible. However, between
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2000 and 2010, CO2 emissions were the highest they have ever been. According to the IPCC, in
order to not surpass the inevitable 2°C rise in global temperature, GHG emissions need to be
reduced by 40 to 70 percent from the 2010 recorded emissions and to near-zero by 2100 (United
Nations, 2014).
There is hope, though, that new technologies combined with a new sense of global cooperation
will stop, not turn back, the clock that spells disaster. This can happen, but only if countries join
together and make it a common goal combined with the implementation of their own domestic
programs. Providing renewable energy and reducing air pollution are only two ways to create a
sustainable environment (United Nations, 2014). There also needs to be increased bank lending
to the agricultural fields to enhance this sector. Not only will reducing the effects of climate
change maintain India’s and Nigeria’s economies, but it will eventually improve the education,
poverty, and livelihoods of the individuals in these developing countries. As stated by Hugh
Sealy, Chair of the Executive Board that oversees the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM),
“when emission reductions come with other benefits, such as technology transfer, sustainable
energy, increased household prosperity, clean air, education, or spur other types of sustainable
development, then clearly this is in the best interest of everyone, in developed and
developing countries.”4
References
Apata, T. G.; K. D. Samuel; and A. O. Adeola (2009). Climate Change Perception and
Adaptation Among Arable Food Crop Farmers in South Western Nigeria. Paper
presented at the International Association of Agricultural Economists’ 2009 Conference;
available at: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/51365/2/final%20IAAE%20doc..pdf.
Birthal, P. S.; P. K. Joshi; Devesh Roy; and Amit Thorat (2007). Diversification in Indian
Agriculture towards High-Value Crops: The Role of Smallholders. International Food
Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Discussion Paper, No. 00727 (November); available
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Global Majority E-Journal, Vol. 5, No. 2 (December 2014), pp. 104-116
Agriculture in Kenya and Uganda:
Relevance, Behavior, and Performance
Giorgio Zenere
Abstract
Kenya and Uganda are neighboring countries located in the great Lake Regions of East Africa.
They share a substantial portion of one of the biggest lakes: Lake Victoria. They are both poor
and agriculture-based countries. However, there are significant differences in the level of
development, climate, contribution of agriculture to gross domestic product (GDP), agricultural
behavior and agricultural performance between these two countries. This paper will focus on
illustrating these differences by using the data available from the World Bank’s World
Development Indicators. It shows that Kenya is overall more developed, uses far more fertilizers,
withdraws far more water for agriculture, and uses far more tractors than Uganda. However,
Uganda has made more progress during the last three decades in increasing the value added of
its agriculture (in constant 2000 US$). On the other hand, Kenya has made more progress in
increasing the production of food per capita.
I.
Introduction
Kenya and Uganda are sub-Saharan African, agriculture-based countries. They are considered to
be among the developing world’s leaders in a variety of different agricultural productions. The
countries’ politics concerning agriculture were revolutionized in the 1950s as the British colonial
policy encouraged the development of co-operatives for subsistence farmers to increase their
production such that the surplus can be sold in international markets. British official David
Gordon Hines and his team established a co-operative bank and developed the marketing of
agricultural goods of both countries. Despite the same British influence, Kenya turned out to be
far wealthier than Uganda in terms of agricultural production, gross domestic product (GDP) per
capita, partly for being more industrialized than Uganda. However, some indicators tend to show
that Uganda is catching up with Kenya’s economic wealth.
This paper will analyze the changes in the relevance of agriculture for the two countries, the
different agricultural behaviors of Kenya and Uganda, as well as the different performances in
agriculture. It is structured into seven sections. Following this introduction, the next section
104
presents some empirical background on key human development indicators and the share of
agriculture as percentage of GDP. The fourth section summarizes the relevance of the
agricultural sectors, while the fifth section examines the different behaviors in the agricultural
sector. The sixth section reviews the performance of the agricultural sector before the last section
provides some conclusions.
II.
Literature Review
Kenya and Uganda are countries where the agricultural strategies have been studied and debated
by many scholars. Although academic research on the comparison of these countries agricultural
behaviors is almost inexistent, many publications discuss the countries’ agriculture individually.
The following five publications discuss some of the most important agricultural strategies
implemented in Kenya and Uganda and their consequences on the populations’ economic
situations.

Wenner (1983) describes how he changed Kenya’s agricultural behaviors by establishing
low-cost terraces, using dead crop residues from the field into ridges across the slope. In
addition, Wenner talks about educating the farmers to promote soil conservation rather
than absolutely striving for the maximum yield possible. Wenner explains how he helped
implementing a new agricultural law on soil conservation. Wenner blames the industrial
world for implementing practices that cannot sustain agriculture in the long-run, such as
“over-irrigation” and the excessive development of agricultural infrastructure that are not
compatible with Kenya’s situation. Furthermore, Wenner describes how afforestation
helped the country prevent the desertification of the land. Finally, the article points out
that a) too little research is done on traditional agriculture and b) insufficient funds are
allocated towards this type of research.

The Kenya Institute of Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) (2014) reviewed
Kenya’s food security, focusing especially on the role of irrigation. The report begins
with pointing out that even though 80 percent of the country can be considered arid and
semi-arid, agriculture contributes about 24 percent of Kenya’s GDP. Climate change is
worsening the aridity situation, as the weather’s variability is not suitable to support a
sustainable production of food. The report discusses several strategies to mitigate and
facilitate the adaption to the climate variability such as increasing the area under irrigated
agriculture.

A report by Uganda’s National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO) (2012)
discusses how a new project regarding the use and distribution of seeds was implemented
and improved traditional agricultural practices in Uganda. According to the publication,
farmers in the West Nile agro-ecological zone of Uganda have been growing mainly local
varieties of crops whose productivity was low compared to the improved varieties. This
was attributed to lack of adequate access to seeds of improved varieties and inadequate
knowledge on good agronomic practices. The primary objective of the project was to
make available seeds of improved varieties of groundnuts, beans, rice and cassava to
farmers in the West Nile region; thereby establishing a sustainable seed delivery system.
The project was executed in the districts of Adjumani, Yumbe and Nebbi, where the lack
of adequate access to seeds and poor skills of growing improved crop varieties is reported
to be a major cause hindering adoption of improved crop varieties and subsequently low
105
crop production. After some land preparation and training of farmers, farmers were
provided with planting materials such as seeds of rice, cassava, groundnuts and beans.
The report shows that the project was a success: there has been an increase in the
production based on quality of the seeds but also because of the efficiency of seed
distribution.

III.
Okoboi and Barungi (2013) wrote an acclaimed scholarly article, which discusses the use
of organic and inorganic fertilizer as a response to the declining soil fertility in Uganda.
Uganda is among the countries with the highest-level of soil nutrient loss in the world
even though the use of fertilizer in crop production in Uganda remains low. The proper
use of fertilizers could lead to higher economic growth and poverty reduction through
increased agricultural productivity and output. The article points out that less than onefifth of agricultural households receive extension services. The article then concludes that
this inadequate access to extension services (that provide technical advice) is a major
constraint for the broader adoption of fertilizer. Fertilizer use, access to credit and use of
irrigation are closely linked. Therefore, any successful intervention to promote fertilizer
use in Uganda will have to be accompanied with complementary inputs and services.
Empirical Background
III.1. Human Development
As Figure 1 shows, 30 years ago, Uganda was a much poorer country than Kenya, if measuring
poverty in terms of GDP per capita. Uganda’s GDP per capita (in purchasing power parity
(PPP)-adjusted constant 2005 dollars) stood at $568 in 1982 (which is the first year for which
such data is available for Uganda), while that of Kenya was $1,342. Hence, in 1982, Uganda’s
GDP per capita constituted 42 percent of Kenya’s GDP per capita. However, as Kenya has made
very little progress during the last 30 years, Uganda has nearly caught up with Kenya by 2011
(the latest available data). In 2011, Uganda’s GDP per capita had more than doubled since 1982,
reaching $1,188 in 2011. Kenya’s GDP per capita increased by only 12.5 percent over nearly
three decades, reaching $1,509 in 2011. As we will show below, differences in agricultural
behaviors and policies have contributed to these very different developments.
Figure 1: GDP per capita (in PPP-adjusted constant 2005 dollar), 1982-2011
Source: Created by author based on World Bank data (2013).
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Despite some differences and some similarities in the evolution of life expectancy between the
two countries during the last 30 years, Figure2 shows that Uganda has also nearly caught up with
Kenya in terms of life expectancy at birth. In 1982, Uganda’s life expectancy was nearly 9 years
below that of Kenya’s. By 2011, the difference was reduced to only three years. Mostly due the
HIV/AIDS epidemic, Kenya experienced a relatively sharp decrease in life expectancy from
1988 to 2002, while Uganda experienced a relatively sharp decrease from 1982 to 1996. Due to
the late and slow recovery, Kenya’s life expectancy of 2011 has actually been below Kenya’s life
expectancy of 1982, while that of Uganda has overall increased by 4.1 years during the last 30
years.
Figure 2: Life Expectancy at Birth, 1982-2011
Source: Created by author based on World Bank data (2013).
Even though reliable data on adult literacy rates are scarce for both countries, Figure 3 shows
that Kenya’s population is far more literate than that of Uganda’s. In the early 2000s, Kenya’s
literacy rate stood at 82.2 percent, while Uganda’s stood at 68.1 percent. By 2010, both countries
have increased their adult literacy rates by about 5 percentage points: Kenya’s increased to 87.4
percent, while that of Uganda increased to 73.2 percent.
Figure 3: Adult Literacy Rates (selected years)
Source: Created by author based on World Bank data (2013).
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III.2. Geographies and Climates of Kenya and Uganda1
Kenya's terrain is composed of low plains that rise into central highlands that are, in turn,
bisected by the Great Rift Valley. There is also a fertile plateau in the west of the country.
Kenya’s climate varies by location, from mostly cool every day, to always warm/hot. Along the
coast, the climate is tropical, which means that rainfall and temperatures are higher throughout
the year. Further inside of Kenya, the climate becomes more arid, with nearly no rainfall.
Uganda is a located country in Eastern Africa, west of Kenya. It is in the heart of the Great Lakes
region, surrounded by Lake Edward, Lake Albert, and Lake Victoria. Despite being on the
equator, Uganda is more temperate than Kenya due to Uganda’s altitude. The country is mostly
plateau with a rim of mountains. This has made it more suitable to agriculture and less prone to
tropical diseases than other nations in the region. The climate is tropical; generally rainy with
two dry seasons (December to February, and June to August). Only in the very north (near
Sudan) is the climate semiarid.
Figure 4: Topography of Uganda (left picture) and Kenya (right picture)
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Kenya and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Uganda.
Though Uganda’s land area is with 197,100 square kilometer (km2) about one third of Kenya’s
land area (569,140 km2), given that the percentage of arable land is much higher in Uganda
(27.94 percent) than in Kenya (9.48 percent), Kenya and Uganda have about the same amount of
arable land, amounting respectively to 53,954 km2 and 55,070 km2.
1
Unless otherwise stated, most of this section has been adapted from Wikipedia’s information on the geographies of
Kenya and Uganda, respectively available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Kenya and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Uganda.
108
However, due to the high level of poverty and resource scarcity in both countries, the land used
for agriculture is far larger than what is considered to be arable land. According to the World
Bank (2013), Kenya’s agricultural land amounted in 2009 (the last year such data is available) to
273,500 km2, (which represents 48.05 percent of Kenya’s total land area), while that of Uganda
amounted to 139,620 km2 (which represents 69.88 percent of Uganda’s total land area) in 2009.
IV.
Economic Relevance of Agriculture
As of today, agriculture remains a major economic engine in Kenya and Uganda. In 2011, the
share of agriculture in GDP amounted to 28.5 percent in Kenya and to 23.4 percent in Uganda.
As shown in Figure 5, for Kenya, the share of agriculture in GDP remains almost constant at
around 30 percent since 1970. For Uganda, it increased from 53.8 percent in 1970 to a maximum
of 74.3 percent in 1978. After two years of volatility, it then dropped very sharply from 72.0
percent in 1980 to 53.7 percent in 1982, after which it remained around that level for most of the
1980s. Since then, Uganda’s share of agriculture in GDP experienced a slow, but almost steady
decline, reaching 23.4 percent in 2011.
Figure 5: Share of Agriculture in GDP, 1970-2010
Source: Created by author based on World Bank data (2013).
Despite these relative small shares of agriculture to GDP, agriculture remains an important
source of employment in both countries. In 2005 (which is the only year such data exists for both
countries), the percentage of employment in agriculture amounted to 61.1 percent of total
employment for Kenya and 71.6 percent for Uganda; see Figure 6.
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Figure 6: Share of Agricultural Employment in Total Employment in 2005
Source: Created by author based on World Bank data (2013).
Agriculture also remains an important source of exports for both countries. As shown in Figure
7, while the percentage of food imports in total merchandise imports ranged between 10 and 20
percent for both countries during 1994-2010, the share of food exports in total merchandise
exports was much higher. During 1994-2010, it ranged between 30 and 60 percent for Kenya,
and between 60 and 93 percent for Uganda.
Figure 7: Food Exports and Imports as Percentage of Merchandise Exports and Imports,
1994-2010
Food exports (% of merchandise exports)
Food imports (% of merchandise imports)
100.0
25.0
90.0
80.0
20.0
70.0
60.0
15.0
50.0
40.0
10.0
30.0
20.0
5.0
10.0
0.0
1994
1997
2000
Kenya
2003
2006
2009
0.0
1994
Uganda
1997
2000
2003
Kenya
2006
2009
Uganda
Source: Created by author based on World Bank data (2013).
V.
Agricultural Behaviors in Kenya and Uganda
Two major agricultural behaviors that shape the productivity of agriculture are intensification
and expansion of cultivation. The debate whether one should resort to intensification to produce
more yield per hectare (ha) through the use of fertilizers and insecticides or if one should use
expand its agriculturally used land in order to produce more has been ongoing for many years.
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It is argued that the use of fertilizers impoverishes the soil quality and productivity over time;
thus, resorting to intensification works amazingly well in the short run but is incredibly
dangerous for the production in the long run (Okoboi and Barungi, 2013). Furthermore,
insecticides can permanently damage the plantations, as well as having nefarious consequences
on human health.
However, many scholars argue that fertilizers should still be used because their advantage
outstand the drawbacks. In fact, not all fertilizers have nefarious effects. There are two types of
fertilizers: organic and inorganic. According to Okoboi and Barungi (2013), inorganic fertilizers
generate a soil nutrient loss in the long run, whereas organic fertilizers do not.
V.1.
Use of Fertilizer
Based on the World Bank’s (2013) World Development Indicators, Kenya is using at least ten
times more fertilizer than Uganda. During the period of years for which such data is available
(2002-2009), Kenya’s fertilizer consumption ranged between 27.3 kilogram (kg) per ha of arable
land to 36.4 kg per ha of arable land. During the same time period, Uganda’s fertilizer
consumption ranged between 1.0 kg per ha of arable land and 3.0 kg per ha of arable land.
Despite the fraction of Uganda’s fertilizer use, Okoboi and Barungi claim that Uganda is among
the countries with the highest level of soil nutrient loss in the world because farm-households are
uneducated and apply both organic and inorganic fertilizers at the same time. According to their
study, women are more likely to use inorganic fertilizers than men. If Uganda would use more
organic fertilizers, the drastic increase in production will indirectly lead to higher economic
growth and an acceleration in poverty reduction.
V.2.
Freshwater Withdrawals
Similar to Uganda’s far lower fertilizer use, Uganda’s annual freshwater withdrawals due to
agriculture is also a fraction of that of Kenya’s. Based on the World Bank’s (2013) World
Development Indicators, Uganda’s annual freshwater withdrawals due to agriculture amounted
to 120 million cubic meters in 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2011, while Kenya’s annual freshwater
withdrawals due to agriculture amounted to 1,566 million cubic meters in 1997 and 2002, and to
2,165 million cubic meters in 2007 and 2011. Uganda’s far lower freshwater withdrawal is
obviously related to a) the different climate of Kenya and Uganda (see section III.2 above) and
b) that Kenya’s agriculture is more developed than that of Uganda. Consistent with Kenya’s
much higher freshwater withdrawals is that Kenya’s irrigated land amounted to 1032 km² in
2003, while that of Uganda amounted to only 144.2 km² in 2010.2
According to the Kenyan Institute of Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) (2014),
climate change is worsening Kenya’s aridity situation because the increased weather variability
is not suitable to support a sustainable production of food. Although the irrigation potential for
Kenya is estimated at 540,000 ha, only about 106,600 ha are under irrigation. In other words,
only 20 percent of the potential area is irrigated.
On the other hand, Uganda used to rely on natural precipitations for irrigation. However, the
Ugandan government has now established a 25-years master plan on irrigation. According to the
2
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Kenya for Kenya and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Uganda for Uganda.
111
BBC (2014), officials established the total area under formal irrigation in Uganda to be of 14,418
ha out of an estimated 560,000 ha with irrigation potential. The plan is to increase the utilization
of land from 5 percent to 10 percent by 2015, to 25 percent by 2020 and to 70 percent by 2035.
V.3.
Use of Tractors
Kenya also uses far more tractors than Uganda. Despite some data limitations, especially for
Uganda, Figure 8 shows that Kenya had three to four times the amount of tractors per 100 km2 of
arable land than Uganda during most of the 1970s.
Figure 8: Tractors per 100 square km of Arable Land (all available years)
Source: Created by author based on World Bank data (2013).
V.4.
Expansion of Agricultural Land
When intensification is not adopted, the other strategy to increase agricultural production is by
expanding the area of land dedicated to agricultural production. Land expansion is beneficial but
has limits due to urbanization as well as the overall limits on surface area of a country. Figure 9
shows that the evolution of agricultural land from 1982 to 2009, which indicates that Kenya has
only marginally increased its agricultural land (from 44.94 percent to 48.1 percent of Kenya’s
total land), while Uganda has increased its agricultural land from 54.25 percent to 69.88 percent
of Uganda’s total land.
In any case, while making these comparisons, we should also take into account that Kenya’s
population was about 39.5 million in 2009, while Uganda’s population was 32.4 million in 2009.
Kenya’s population growth rates stood at around 3.5 percent during the 1970s and 1980s, but
decreased to about 2.5 percent in the 2000s. Uganda’s population growth accelerated from
around 3.0 percent in the 1970s to a maximum of 3.65 percent in 1988, after which it gradually
declined, reaching 3.2 percent in 2011. In other words, the population pressure has been slightly
higher in Uganda than in Kenya.
112
Figure 9: Agricultural Land (percent of total land area), 1982-2009
Source: Created by author based on World Bank data (2013).
V.5.
Specialization, New Seeds and GM Crops
Kenya and Uganda have similar historical background that led to the adoption of specific
agricultural behaviors, especially concerning the diversification of their production. After their
independence, many commercial farms were implemented in Kenya and Uganda. These
commercial farms mostly focus on opportunities in international markets and have led the
countries to diversify their agricultural productions based on comparative advantage.
According to Kenya’s National Irrigation Board (2013), commercial farms hold about 40 percent
of the countries arable land, which shifted the agricultural production from a production focused
on provisioning the populations to an agriculture focused on highly valued secondary “niche”
that will be sold overseas such as tropical fruits or tobacco. The Kenyan government holds about
18 percent of arable land and produces mainly sustainable agriculture, avoiding extensive use of
fertilizers (in some cases), over-irrigation and highly toxic insecticides. Finally, smallholders in
Kenya hold about 42 percent of the land, providing the essential food to the provisioning of the
populations; most of the time they misuse fertilizers and do not practice sustainable agriculture
because of a lack of education; the lack of knowledge impedes them to properly use modern
agricultural technique. Commercial farms are leading producers of coffee, tea, and mangoes,
whereas smallholders specialized in the production of cabbage, onion, and mangoes (Okoboi
2013).
In Uganda, commercial farms have specialized in the production of sugar and tobacco, whereas
smallholders have specialized in the production of cotton, coffee, crops, tea, livestock and
beekeeping. However, according to NARO (2012), Uganda has resorted to the use of new variety
of seeds that are more productive than traditional seeds, especially concerning groundnuts, rice
and cassava. These new seeds have allowed to reduce the cost of production and to increase the
productivity of the cultivations.
Another strategy implemented in Uganda but forbidden in Kenya is the use of genetically
modified (GM) crops. GM crops are modified to be more resistant to insects, which increases the
production of the arable land. Some GM crops were also introduced to provide more caloric
and/or more proteinous food, which is very useful to overcome hunger. However, because the
113
long-term effects these crops might have are unknown, many people are skeptical regarding the
safety of their use. In addition, some scientists argue that there is enough food production in the
world and that the food penuries are only due to bad allocations of food. Nonetheless, it is
surprising that Kenya has forbidden the use of GM crops (see Owino, 2012) when the United
States only sends food aid in form of GM maize.
VI.
Performance of Agriculture
We had noted above (Figure 5) that the share of agriculture in GDP remained almost constant at
around 30 percent for Kenya, while it increased in Uganda from 53.8 percent in 1970 to a
maximum of 74.3 percent in 1978, after which it declined with some volatility to 23.4 percent in
2011. Neither trend does however say much about the performance of the agricultural sector as it
is normal for the share of agriculture declines as countries develop. We therefore look at value
added in constant US dollars and the evolution of the food production index.
Figure 10 shows the value added of agriculture in billions of constant 2000 US dollars for both
countries from 1982-2011. A first observation is that Kenya’s agricultural sector is much larger
than that of Uganda’s. A second observation is that the value added by agriculture increased in
both countries. It nearly doubled in Kenya from US$2.5 billion in 1982 to US$4.7 billion in
2011, while it more than doubled in Uganda from 1.0 billion in 1982 to 2.3 billion in 2011.
Figure 10: Value Added of Agriculture (in billions of constant 2000 US$)
Source: Created by author based on World Bank data (2013).
However, as Figure 11 shows, in per capita terms, the value added by agriculture shows a
slightly declining trend for both counties during 1982-2011. It initially declined in Kenya from
US$141 in 1982 to US$113 in 1993, after which it remained (despite some volatility) at that
level until 2011. For Uganda, the per capita value added by agriculture stood at US$76 in 1982
and nearly remained at that value until 2002, after which is declined slightly to US$66 in 2011.
114
Figure 11: Value Added per capita of Agriculture (in constant 2000 US$)
Source: Created by author based on World Bank data (2013).
Looking at the food production index (left hand panel of Figure 12) and the food production per
capita index (right hand panel of Figure 12) provide a slightly different result than looking at
value added in monetary terms. Based on food production, Kenya did slightly better than Uganda
as the food production index more than doubled in Kenya (from 100 in 1982 to 239 in 2011),
while it nearly exactly doubled in Uganda (from 100 in 1982 to 199 in 2011). Given Uganda’s
higher population growth, Kenya’s progress is even better in per capita terms: Kenya’s food
production per capita index was 4 index points higher in 2010 than in 1982, while it dropped by
about 20 index points from 1982 to 2010 in Uganda.
Figure 12: Food Production Index and Food Production per capita Index, 1982-2010
Food production index (1982 = 100)
260.0
Food production per capita index (1982 = 100)
110.0
240.0
105.0
220.0
200.0
100.0
180.0
95.0
160.0
140.0
90.0
120.0
85.0
100.0
80.0
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Kenya
80.0
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Uganda
Kenya
Uganda
Source: Created by author based on World Bank data (2013).
VII. Conclusion
Due to the similarities in terms of location, colonial past, and the influence of industrialized
countries, it could be assumed that Kenya and Uganda have similar agricultural behaviors.
However, when comparing the agricultural behaviors implemented in Kenya and Uganda, it can
115
be seen that Kenya uses far more fertilizer, withdraws far more freshwater for irrigation, and also
uses far more tractors. On the other hand, Uganda was more successful in expanding the land
used for agricultural production and is also more open to GM crops than Kenya. Overall, there is
some indication that agricultural practices are more sustainable in Uganda than in Kenya.
While both countries were successful in increasing the value added of agriculture in terms of
constant US$ during 1982 and 2011, in per capita terms, the value added of agriculture decreased
slightly for both countries, though more so for Kenya than for Uganda. However, examining the
index of food production over the same time period, shows that Kenya has made more progress
than Uganda. In per capita terms, Kenya’s food production index increased by 5 index points,
while that of Uganda decreased by 20 index points during 1982 and 2011. Clearly, taking the
future challenges (like continuing high population growth and climate change) into account, both
countries need to make major investments in agriculture if they want to be able to feed their
population in the future.
References
BBC (2013). Kenya Aquifers Discovered in Dry Turkana Region. Internet resource of: BBC
News of September 11, 2013; available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/scienceenvironment-24049800.
Wenner, Carl-Gösta (1983). Soil Conservation in Kenya. Ambio, Vol. 12, No. 6, pp. 305-307;
available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4312954.
Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) (2014). Achieving Food and
Nutrition Security in Kenya: The Role of Irrigation (Nairobi, Kenya: KIPPRA); available
at: http://www.kippra.org/News-and-Highlights/achieving-food-and-nutrition-security-inkenya-the-role-of-irrigation.html.
National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO) (2012). Establishment of a Farmer-based
Seed Multiplication and Delivery System for Improved Varieties of Cassava, Beans,
Groundnuts and Rice in West Nile Zone, Uganda (Westlands, Kenya: Alliance for a
Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA)).
National Irrigation Board (2013). Expanded Irrigation Programme. Internet resource of the
National Irrigation Board; available at: http://www.nib.or.ke/irrigationprogrammes/expanded-irrigation-programme.html.
Okoboi, Geofrey and Mildred Barungi (2012). Constraints to Fertilizer Use in Uganda: Insights
from Uganda Census of Agriculture 2008/9. Journal of Sustainable Development, Vol. 5,
No. 10, pp. 99-113; available at:
http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jsd/article/view/19887.
Owino, Otieno (2012). Scientists Torn over Kenya’s Recent GM Food Ban. Internet resource of:
SciDev.Net (November 30, 2012); available at:
http://www.scidev.net/global/nutrition/news/scientists-torn-over-kenya-s-recent-gm-foodban.html.
World Bank (2013) World Development Indicators / Global Development Finance database
(Washington, DC: The World Bank); as posted on the World Bank website:
http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/ (downloaded on February 27th, 2013).
116
Global Majority E-Journal, Vol. 5, No. 2 (December 2014), pp. 117-127
No One Wants a Baby Girl:
Analyzing Gendercide in China and India
Samantha Ufret
Abstract
In recent years, India’s and China’s rapid economic has caught the eye of developed nations.
While it confuses some and sings praises from others, India and China's rise to competitive
economic powers is a sign that their status as developing nations could change sooner than
many would have expected. Despite their rapid development, India and China’s neglect of
gender inequality, especially the gendercide phenomenon, not only draws harsh criticisms from
world governments, but also affects their ability to compete in the global economy because it
perpetuates issues such as poverty, violence, and dramatically reduces human capital. This
article focuses on the factors that explain gendercide in India and China.
I.
Introduction
India and China have been among the most influential countries in the world for centuries. From
the early days of trade with silk, tea and spices, to their recent economic rise in the global
market, India and China have continuously captivated the interest of Western powers. However,
with this praise and attention comes scrutiny and even outrage at commonplace cultural norms
that most would deem unacceptable by global standards. Yet, as they continue to develop their
economies, little is being done to address some of the social ills.
For both India and China, the most prevalent issue is the alarming levels of inequality between
men and women. India and China are traditionally patriarchal cultures, meaning there is a higher
value, socially and monetarily, on males. Women are subject to severe mistreatment, neglect, and
abuse by not only their societies, but also by the very families that should support them. Indian
and Chinese baby girls are victims of a unique, but highly alarming trend known as gendercide:
the systemic annihilation of female fetuses solely for their sex in preference of their male
counterpart. This systemic destruction has led to a phenomenon called “missing girls”,1 meaning
1
According to Subramanya Dehejia (2011), the term “missing women” was first coined by Nobel economist,
Amartya Sen in 1990, referring to the excess mortality of women in the developing world.
117
that there are as many as 200 million girls missing in the world today because baby girls are
killed, aborted and abandoned simply because they are girls.2
Figure 1 shows the ratio of live births of males to females over the last six decades. The natural
sex ratio is about 106 males for every 100 females born,3 although the exact value is subject to
debate in the scientific community. Both, China and India were very close to the natural ratio
from 1950 to 1985. However, as Figure 1 shows, the ratio started to increase in the mid-1980s.
By 2005-2010, the ratio was 111 in India and an alarmingly off balance value of 117 in China.
Figure 1: Sex Ratio at Birth (male births per female births), 1950-2010
Source: Created by author based on United Nations (2013).
The Indian and Chinese governments have done little to address gender issues. They fail to
realize that, if they made a serious effort towards addressing gender inequality, it would
ultimately aid in their development by increasing human capital and employment, and end major
issues like poverty and violence. This article addresses the key factors contributing to gendercide
in China and India, which are discussed following a brief literature review and some empirical
background. The last section provides some conclusions.
II.
Brief Literature Review
Separately for each country, there are various scholarly articles, books, reports, and
documentaries on gender inequality. However, articles comparing their progress are only just
emerging, and mostly focus on summaries of their overall progress as opposed to comparing
specific issues related to their progress.

2
3
In an article entitled “The Many Faces of Gender Inequality”, Amartya Sen (2001) talks
about the various types of gender inequality that plague women in developing countries.
The article highlights many of the key features the women of these two countries,
especially women India, are currently facing in regards to gender inequality like access to
It’s a Girl (2012), Synopsis, see: http://www.itsagirlmovie.com/en/synopsis.
Grech, Savona-Ventura and Vassallo-Agius (2002).
118
high-paying jobs and division of household labor. Sen also notes that because gender
inequality utilizes so many different facets, there is no cure-all remedy for it--and for that
reason--countries can typically shift from one form of gender inequality to another when
there is reform.

In a more recent article by Amartya Sen (2011), entitled “Quality of Life: India vs.
China”, Sen first addresses the recent hype surrounding India’s rising gross national
product (GNP) and how it may overtake China’s. He then goes on to show how India’s
rising GNP will not be important unless it can also catch up in terms of living standards.
Sen states that India’s single-minded goal of strengthening the economy without
reinforcing support for social issues will only allow it to grow within a certain limit.

Yuping Zhang, Grace Kao, and Emily Hannum (2007) study whether women in rural
areas of China practice gender equality or conform to stricter, gender biases. Zhang et al.
studied women and children in rural farmlands across China for their results. Based on
their findings, they concluded that, despite what common conceptions may be, rural
mothers are fairly egalitarian in terms of gender equality. While differences in terms of
prioritizing education for boys and girls were apparent, there was still a decent push for
higher education. They also discovered that since mothers in rural areas are the primary
care givers that rear and socialize children, their individual attitudes and personal
experiences with education are major factors for whether they will push their daughters to
pursue higher education.

In a 2011 article in The Economist, entitled “Growth is not Enough”, The Economist
analyzes how discrimination against women is independent of economic growth. While
the idea of male preferences is strongly imbedded in Asian society and is reinforced by
lower pay and employment rates for women, the article points out that even the richest
areas of China show strong preferences for male babies, despite the fact that they have
the disposable income to care for girls.

Elizabeth Vargas (2011) explores India’s gendercide based on a fact finding trip to India
in June 2011. She reports that India undergoes a systematic, widespread, shocking
elimination of India’s baby girls. Some 50,000 female fetuses are aborted every month in
India. Among those who are born, many are killed at birth by either throwing them into
rivers or leaving them to die in garbage dumps. She reports that it is estimated that one
million girls in India “disappear” every year. Vargas also looks into some of the reasons
for India’s gendercide.

In “Gender Differentials in Literacy in India”, Aparna Sundaram and Reeve Vanneman
(2008) draw attention to a surprising trend in increased labor participation and lower
literacy rates for Indian women. In an analysis conducted in over 400 districts throughout
India, results showed that women in areas with higher workforce participation actually
had lower literacy rates than their counterparts in areas where women in the workforce
were less prevalent. Sundaram and Vanneman hypothesize that, particularly in poorer
districts, families who have mothers and daughters that enter the workforce, or have
traditional patriarchal family systems, are more likely to keep them out of school in
exchange for higher economic returns. While Sundaram and Venneman understand that
not all types of employment would hinder girls’ education, they note that allowing them
to work in certain industries easily hinders their ability to receive education on par with
119
boys because they are hazardous, time consuming, or give such good pay that parents are
more willing to keep them working than in school.

III.
On the positive side, Tania Branigan (2011) wrote an interesting news article for The
Guardian, in which she looked at how the shortage of brides in China has started to a)
reduce the traditional preferences for boys and b) created a positive change in attitudes
towards women, even though China is far from reaching gender equality.
Empirical Background
China’s and India’s gendercide stems from a collection of cultural, economic, and, population
trends that ultimately hinder both national and social development. While each trend contributes
to gender inequality in its own right, all are connected through overlapping factors that not only
continue this vicious cycle, but also fuel worsening conditions for women in both countries. We
will cover these connections in-depth in the next section. This section provides some empirical
background on the evolution of GDP per capita, life expectancy, poverty gaps, and the sex ratios
at birth over the last few decades.
Currently, China and India are the two fastest growing economies in Asia. With average annual
GDP growth rates at about 10 percent and 8 percent, respectively, over the last few decades,
China and India have flourishing economies. Figure 2 shows that China’s GDP per capita
(adjusted for differences in purchasing power) increased more than ten times between 1980
($524) and 2011 ($7,418), while that of India increased nearly four times during the same time
period.
Figure 2: GDP per capita (in constant 2005 international $, PPP), 1980-2011
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013).
Matching rising incomes per capita, Figure 3 shows the progress made in reducing the headcount
ratio of poverty in China and India. China has seen a solid decrease in the percentage of its
citizens living below the $1.25-a-day and $2.00-a-day poverty lines. Despite some spikes, the
decrease has been stable and steady since the late 1990s. With about 12 percent of its population
living below $1.25-a-day and about 30 percent living below $2-a-day, this makes China a
developing nation with a prevalent upper middle class. Though there is much less data available
for India, India seems to have made more steady progress in decreasing poverty. However, the
120
decrease has not been as substantial as China’s, considering that more than 30 percent of India’s
population lived below $1.25-a-day and nearly 70 percent of its population lived below $2-a-day
in 2010. While India has a growing middle class, they are mostly lower middle income. India
still has a long way to go to reduce poverty.
Figure 3: Chinese and Indian Poverty Headcounts at $1.25 and $2.00, all available years
India: Poverty Headcount (all available years)
China: Poverty Headcount (all available years)
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
0
1978
2008
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population)
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population)
Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population)
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population)
Figure 4 shows that the progress made with reducing the depth of poverty (measured by the
poverty gap) is highly correlated to each country’s progress made in reducing the poverty
incidence. Despite some spikes, China has seen a solid decrease in the depth of poverty, while
India’s decrease in the depth of poverty has been more limited.
Figure 4: Chinese and Indian Poverty Gaps at $1.25 and $2.00, all available years
India: Poverty Gaps (all available years)
China: Poverty Gaps (all available years)
50
70
45
60
40
50
35
30
40
25
30
20
20
15
10
10
0
1981
5
1986
1991
1996
2001
0
1978
2006
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%)
Poverty gap at $2 a day (PPP) (%)
Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%)
Poverty gap at $2 a day (PPP) (%)
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013).
121
2008
Figure 5 shows the evolution of female and male life expectancies from 1970 to 2011 for both
countries. As is the case in most countries, females can currently expect to live about 3 years
longer than males in both, China and India. This difference in life expectancy has been relatively
stable during the last three decades in China. However, in India, males were expected to live
longer than females until 1981. For the subsequent four years (1982-1985), the female and male
life expectancies were basically the same (the difference was less than one month). Since 1986,
the female life expectancy has grown slightly faster than that of the males, reaching a difference
of 3.1 years by 2011.
Figure 5: Female & Male Life Expectancies for China & India (in years), 1970-2011
China: Male & Female Life Expectancies
India: Male & Female Life Expectancies
75
75
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
45
1970
Life expectancy at birth, female (years)
Life expectancy at birth, male (years)
1975 1980
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Life expectancy at birth, female (years)
Life expectancy at birth, male (years)
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013).
Figure 6: Female and Male Literacy Rates in China and India, all available years
China: Literacy Rates (all available years)
India: Literacy Rates (all available years)
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
0
1981
2007
Literacy rate, adult female (% of females ages 15 and above)
Literacy rate, adult male (% of males ages 15 and above)
1986
1991
1996
2006
Literacy rate, adult female (% of females ages 15 and above)
Literacy rate, adult male (% of males ages 15 and above)
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013).
122
2001
Despite the progress made in terms of life expectancies, Figure 6 above shows that female
literacy rates still lack behind those for males, especially in India. While China has made
significant progress in reducing the gap (and has also far higher literacy rates for males than
India), the gap between male and female literacy rates has remained nearly stable at around 2530 percentage points in India. Looking at India’s literacy rates strongly echoes Sen’s (2011)
statement that India’s rising income will not be important unless it can also catch up in terms of
living standards. In terms of literacy rates, India is today about where China was in the early
1980s.
IV.
Discussion
IV.1. Cultural Reasons for Gendercide
India and China’s society venerate patriarchies, meaning they favor males in family units over
females. As with any society of this nature, it is expected that there will be some notable
inequalities between genders. However, China and India have taken these cultural norms to such
an extreme that it has perpetuated significantly conditions for women and girls now more than
ever before. According to “It’s a Girl,” a documentary that discusses female gendercide in China
and India, there are over 200,000 “missing” or aborted girls in India each year. In both China and
India, there are as many as 1,500 sex-selective abortions conducted each hour (It’s a Girl, 2012).
In interviews and discussions, Indian women have admitted to killing their baby girls because
they would not want them to suffer in the dehumanizing environment they have been subjected
to all their lives (It’s a Girl, 2012). Families will also abort females because they will cost the
family more money in the long-run, and therefore come with a higher opportunity cost than
males within Chinese and Indian cultures. Moreover, as a result of these practices, it is no
coincidence that China has the highest rate of female suicide in the world (It’s a Girl, 2012). Nor
is surprising that women and girls in China are more likely than women in other countries to be
kidnapped and sold into sex slavery or as future brides for families with sons who fear they may
not find someone marry.
Since males are culturally more desirable, it is not surprising that families would choose to have
a male child over a female child when presented with a choice. There are gruesome stories of
mothers who had murdered their daughters. As reported by Izri (2012), the “It’s a Girl”
documentary shows that some mothers crushed their baby girls’ necks, poisoned their milk or
used damp cloths to suffocate them. All these mothers killed their baby girls to save their
daughters from lives in poverty and violence. If cultural norms continue to push for a society that
treats women as commodities and machines with no recognition of their own wants and needs,
Indian and Chinese women will continue to suffer as their countries develop.
IV.2. Financial Reasons for Gendercide
China and India have attributed monetary values based on sex. Sons are primarily the ones that
gain, property, inheritance and own land, so they represent the bulk of wealth in these cultures.
Daughters, on the other hand, usually gain nothing, and when they are given away during
marriage, are expected to bring a dowry with them from their families, despite the fact that the
practice has been outlawed for decades. Families that bear daughters not only suffer emotional
loss, but monetary loss as well, and for that reason, would rather abandon, kill, or abort girls in a
part of the world whose focus at the moment is to gain financially.
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The empirical data suggests that gender norms coupled with rampant poverty place a real value
on children: males represent a potential positive financial gain for the families, while females
represent a debt or loss to the household. Since men are the ones who typically inherit property,
control family wealth, and take care of aging parents, they provide a net gain for the household.
Females on the other hand are not considered do contribute to the household’s wealth. Instead,
females are a poor investment for families as they must pay an exorbitant amount of money to
her husband and lose her from their family unit once they get married. This is definitely still the
case in India (and was to a lower degree also the case until recently in China). When the cultural
and financial issues collide it perpetuates gendercide. There is no financial reason to have a girl
child, subsequently, infant mortality rates are significantly higher for females than males in both
countries (It’s a Girl, 2012).4
Looking at Figure 7 on the next page, it is quite obvious that men are the breadwinners in China
and especially in India. In India, the male labor force participation rate has hovered around 80
percent for the last 20 years, while that of women has been around 32 percent until it even fell
below 30 percent in the last few years. While the gender gap has been far lower in China
(amounting to about 10 percentage points), the data does not indicate any narrowing of the
gender gap during the last two decades in either country. Women remain to be expected to care
for the household and many have no way of proving that they can be a financial benefit to their
families.
Figure 7: Male and Female Employment Population Ratios for China and India, 1991-2010
China: Male & Female Employment Ratios
India: Male & Female Employment Ratios
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Employment to population ratio, 15+, female (%)
Employment to population ratio, 15+, male (%)
Employment to population ratio, 15+, female (%)
Employment to population ratio, 15+, male (%)
Source: Created by author based on World Bank (2013).
IV.3. Drivers of Gendercide
The main driver for gendercide in India continues to be poverty. Poverty forces families to
choose what gender their children have. Unlike boys, female children are considered to come
with a set of fixed costs and no returns. Among the most significant costs, is dowry, which is
more or less a percentage of the families’ net wealth. Both the wealthy and the poor alike are
financially burdened by dowry. While the Indian government outlawed the dowry system more
4
This claim is supported by data from the World Bank (2013), which shows that during the last ten years, female
child mortality rates have been about one third higher than male child mortality rates in India. There is no such data
available in World Bank (2013) for China.
124
than 50 years ago, many families are still expected to provide gifts and property to their sons-inlaw (Izry, 2012).
Moreover, since fewer Indian women are allowed into the workforce, women represent a
financial burden throughout their lives. Arguably, if the culture did not treat this way, there
would be more women participating in the economy. However, because women are at the behest
of their fathers and husbands, they are yet another commodity, worth no more than their ability
to produce a son. Gendercide is sustained by poverty, and gendercide keeps India from
developing alongside China at the same rate.
Where poverty does not act is an instigator is in the upper and middle class. Instead, culture itself
acts as an instigator. The upper and middle class of India favors a form of gendercide called
“sex-selective abortion” (Pörtner, 2014). Through sex-selective abortion, upper class caste
families can maintain their coveted small families, guarantee male heirs, and ensure that they do
not have to pay a lavish dowry (It’s a Girl, 2012). Although dowry is a key issue that fuels
gendercide, there is no single cause of the problem. Instead, this issue is the product of when
culture and tough economic circumstances collide.
In China, while poverty still contributes to gender inequality, the major instigator for Chinese
gendercide is, without a doubt, the controversial One Child Policy. The One Child Policy was
originally implemented because of fears of overpopulation, but modern medical tools like
ultrasound allows parents to be more selective with regards to the gender of the one child they
plan to have. The Chinese authorities enforce the One Child policy through what is known as the
Family Planning Police that does routine sweeps in towns and cities. If women are found “out of
compliance”, meaning that they are bearing a second or third child, they are rounded up, fined,
and even sent to clinics for forced abortions (It’s a Girl, 2012). Since men are more culturally
more desirable, it is not surprising that families would choose to have a boy over a girl when
presented with a choice. Some parents risk having a second child if knowing that it will be a son.
IV.4. Social and Economic Costs of Surplus Men
“Bare Branches” is a popular Chinese phrase for men who will never get the chance to make
families of their own since their marriage prospects are so slim (Hudson and den Boer, 2002, p.
8). If gender ratios are not stabilized soon, there will most likely be a whole generation of Bare
Branches, both from India and China that can cause detrimental damage to these economies.
A critical factor to surplus men is the possibility of overwhelming dependency ratios in the
future. Along with the financial strain of taking care of themselves with no spouse to add income
to a household, Bare Branches are tasked with caring for elderly parents by themselves. They
have no siblings to share the burden with, no spouse to aid in care, and now, no children to do
the same for them in the future.
This is best put in terms of supply and demand. While the demand for boys is high right now, at
some point the demand for girls will go up when there is a need for brides in the future. Since the
supply of girls will be nowhere near equal to that of boys, they will be in high demand; so much
so, that it could eventually lead to unrest until the demand is met. It also may lead to the
commodification of girls, and increased instances of human trafficking. Instead of gendercide,
the scarcity of females within society may lead to poorer families selling their female children
for profit to families looking for future brides.
125
V.
Conclusion
China and India are developing rapidly. However, their growth comes at the cost of millions of
baby girls, who have their most basic human right (to live) taken from them. Sex-selective
abortions act as both a symptom and a pathogen to this vicious cycle that prevents the Indian and
Chinese economies from raising living standards at a higher rate. While both India and China
have implemented policy solutions, such as outlawing dowries and sex determinative
ultrasounds, these laws have been poorly implemented and are not enforced.
In order to stop gendercide, these governments, especially India’s needs to get serious about
carrying out the laws they put in place. If financial insecurity is such a concern among poor and
rural populations, Indian and Chinese governments could possibly give subsidies to families that
have girls, offering incentives for raising them and keeping them in school so that there is no
need to keep them from their right to learn.
Eventually, this could lead to a boom of women capable of entering the workforce, and
participating in the economy alongside men. Possibly the most obvious remedy to this solution,
especially in China, would be repealing the One Child Policy so that parents would not be forced
to either abort or abandon their daughters. While some exceptions to the One Child Policy has
been introduced recently (like if both parents are coming from single-child families), even these
families may still prefer boys over girls as girls continue to be undervalued, and cannot properly
grow in an environment that pressures them into believing they should not exist.
Women are not commodities subject to trade, theft or destruction. Gender preference is already
having catastrophic effects on China and India’s economies, and if they do not address
gendercide as a serious and critical threat, it will not only ruin their development efforts, but
could completely unravel the economies they worked so hard to build.
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