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E S:: 9S:: S::: S:: 9S:: S::: S:: 9S:: S::: ;:R V,/G*G#1#(2 /@ ,%M%'(#&0 : :A9S :AS :AeS =/,,%1*(#/& f :A; :A:[ ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: :A:: ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: :A:: ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: =/,,%1*(#/& f :AS :A:S ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: :A:9 ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: :A:U ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: =/,,%1*(#/& f :A[ :A9U ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: :A:e ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: :A:d ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: ()% &-11 -+#&0 L%+( 9 ; ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: E/(%R L)#+ (*G1% ?,%+%&(+ ()% ,%+-1(+ /@ * `/&(% =*,1/ +(-$2 /@ ()% +#N% *&$ ?/4%, /@ L%+( 9A L)% &-11 )2?/()%+#+ #+ ()*( ()% '/?-1* #+ &/,.*1A L)% ^OV #+ * .#J(-,% /@ * &/,.*1 *&$ * !$ '/?-1*R + f 5; % T>+#6789: i T+!$ 8 +/ ()% '*+% ()*( T f : '/,,%+?/&$+ (/ ()% '*+% ()*( ()% ^OV +*(#+!%+ ()% &-11 )2?/()%+#+A L)% .*,0#&*1 $#+(,#G-(#/&+ *,% *++-.%$ (/ G% <P5;>CO<P=Q5;8;> ?,/'%++%+ 4#() E/,.*1 #&&/"*(#/&+A L)% &/.#&*1 +#N% #& *11 '*+%+ #+ :A:SA L)% &-.G%, /@ ,%?1#'*(#/&+ 4*+ ;::A L)% $#.%&+#/& /@ ()% +2+(%. '/&+#$%,%$ #+ T:A TU L*G1% ;;R V,/?/,(#/& /@ (#.%+ ()% G#"*,#*(% E/,.*1 =/?-1* '*& G% ,%M%'(%$ P*4 ,%(-,&+ O<P=Q !1(%, O<P=Qi^== !1(%, L%+( ; L%+( 9 L%+( ; L%+( 9 L%+( ; L%+( 9 :A:; :A:; :A:: :A:T :A:; :A:T E/(%R L)#+ (*G1% ?,%+%&(+ ()% ?,/?/,(#/& /@ (#.%+ ()% G#"*,#*(% &/,.*1 '/?-1* 4*+ ,%M%'(%$ @/, * ,*&$/.12 +%1%'(%$ '/11%'(#/& /@ ;:: ?*#,+ /@ %I-#(#%+A L*G1% ;9R V,/?/,(#/& /@ (#.%+ ()% E/,.*1 =/?-1* '*& G% ,%M%'(%$ E-.G%, /@ *++%(+ P*4 ,%(-,&+ O<P=Q !1(%, O<P=Qi^== !1(%, 9 :A:T :A:; :A:9 T :AS[ :A;e :A;9 S ;A:: :A\; :A\: ;: ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: ;S ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: 9: ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: 9S ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: T: ;A:: ;A:: ;A:: E/(%R L)#+ (*G1% ?,%+%&(+ ()% ?,/?/,(#/& /@ (#.%+ ()% &/,.*1 '/?-1* 4*+ ,%M%'(%$ @/, * ,*&$/.12 +%1%'(%$ '/11%'(#/& /@ ;:: 0,/-?+ /@ %I-#(#%+8 4#() ()% +#N% /@ ()% 0,/-? ,*&0#&0 @,/. 9 (/ T:A Z/, ()% 0,/-? /@ +#N% T: ()%,% 4*+ /&12 /&% (/ '/&+#$%,A L*G1% ;TR V,/?/,(#/& /@ (#.%+ ()% G#"*,#*(% 7(-$%&(F+ ! =/?-1* '*& G% ,%M%'(%$ P*4 ,%(-,&+ O<P=Q !1(%, L%+( ; L%+( 9 L%+( ; L%+( 9 :A:: :A:d :A:; :A:U E/(%R L)#+ (*G1% ?,%+%&(+ ()% ?,/?/,(#/& /@ (#.%+ ()% G#"*,#*(% 7(-$%&(F+ ! 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'/?-1* 4*+ ,%M%'(%$ @/, * ,*&$/.12 +%1%'(%$ '/11%'(#/& /@ ;:: ?*#,+ /@ %J')*&0% ,*(%+A L*G1% ;\R V,/?/,(#/& /@ (#.%+ ()% 7(-$%&(F+ ! =/?-1* '*& G% ,%M%'(%$ E-.G%, /@ *++%(+ P*4 ,%(-,&+ O<P=Q !1(%, 9 :AUd :ATS S :A\9 :AS; ;: :A\\ :ASd ;S :A[[ :Ad9 9: ;A:: ;A:: E/(%R L)#+ (*G1% ?,%+%&(+ ()% ?,/?/,(#/& /@ (#.%+ ()% 7(-$%&(F+ ! '/?-1* 4*+ ,%M%'(%$ @/, * ,*&$/.12 +%1%'(%$ '/11%'(#/& /@ ;:: 0,/-?+ /@ %J')*&0% ,*(%+8 4#() ()% +#N% /@ ()% 0,/-? ,*&0#&0 @,/. 9 (/ 9:A Z/, ()% 0,/-? /@ +#N% 9: ()%,% 4*+ /&12 /&% (/ '/&+#$%,A Td ! !"#$%&'()*)+#,(,+#%+,( ( List of other working papers: 2004 1. Xiaohong Chen, Yanqin Fan and Andrew Patton, Simple Tests for Models of Dependence Between Multiple Financial Time Series, with Applications to U.S. Equity Returns and Exchange Rates, WP04-19 2. Valentina Corradi and Walter Distaso, Testing for One-Factor Models versus Stochastic Volatility Models, WP04-18 3. Valentina Corradi and Walter Distaso, Estimating and Testing Sochastic Volatility Models using Realized Measures, WP04-17 4. Valentina Corradi and Norman Swanson, Predictive Density Accuracy Tests, WP04-16 5. Roel Oomen, Properties of Bias Corrected Realized Variance Under Alternative Sampling Schemes, WP04-15 6. Roel Oomen, Properties of Realized Variance for a Pure Jump Process: Calendar Time Sampling versus Business Time Sampling, WP04-14 7. Richard Clarida, Lucio Sarno, Mark Taylor and Giorgio Valente, The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates, WP04-13 8. Lucio Sarno, Daniel Thornton and Giorgio Valente, Federal Funds Rate Prediction, WP04-12 9. Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente, Modeling and Forecasting Stock Returns: Exploiting the Futures Market, Regime Shifts and International Spillovers, WP04-11 10. Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente, Empirical Exchange Rate Models and Currency Risk: Some Evidence from Density Forecasts, WP04-10 11. Ilias Tsiakas, Periodic Stochastic Volatility and Fat Tails, WP04-09 12. Ilias Tsiakas, Is Seasonal Heteroscedasticity Real? An International Perspective, WP04-08 13. Damin Challet, Andrea De Martino, Matteo Marsili and Isaac Castillo, Minority games with finite score memory, WP04-07 14. Basel Awartani, Valentina Corradi and Walter Distaso, Testing and Modelling Market Microstructure Effects with an Application to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, WP04-06 15. Andrew Patton and Allan Timmermann, Properties of Optimal Forecasts under Asymmetric Loss and Nonlinearity, WP04-05 16. Andrew Patton, Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence, WP04-04 17. Alessio Sancetta, Decoupling and Convergence to Independence with Applications to Functional Limit Theorems, WP04-03 18. Alessio Sancetta, Copula Based Monte Carlo Integration in Financial Problems, WP04-02 19. Abhay Abhayankar, Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente, Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability, WP04-01 2002 1. Paolo Zaffaroni, Gaussian inference on Certain Long-Range Dependent Volatility Models, WP02-12 2. Paolo Zaffaroni, Aggregation and Memory of Models of Changing Volatility, WP02-11 3. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Andrew Wood, Reinterpreting the Real Exchange Rate - Yield Diffential Nexus, WP02-10 4. Gordon Gemmill and Dylan Thomas , Noise Training, Costly Arbitrage and Asset Prices: evidence from closed-end funds, WP02-09 5. Gordon Gemmill, Testing Merton's Model for Credit Spreads on Zero-Coupon Bonds, WP0208 6. George Christodoulakis and Steve Satchell, On th Evolution of Global Style Factors in the MSCI Universe of Assets, WP02-07 7. George Christodoulakis, Sharp Style Analysis in the MSCI Sector Portfolios: A Monte Caro Integration Approach, WP02-06 8. George Christodoulakis, Generating Composite Volatility Forecasts with Random Factor Betas, WP02-05 9. Claudia Riveiro and Nick Webber, Valuing Path Dependent Options in the Variance-Gamma Model by Monte Carlo with a Gamma Bridge, WP02-04 10. Christian Pedersen and Soosung Hwang, On Empirical Risk Measurement with Asymmetric Returns Data, WP02-03 11. Roy Batchelor and Ismail Orgakcioglu, Event-related GARCH: the impact of stock dividends in Turkey, WP02-02 12. George Albanis and Roy Batchelor, Combining Heterogeneous Classifiers for Stock Selection, WP02-01 2001 1. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell , GARCH Model with Cross-sectional Volatility; GARCHX Models, WP01-16 2. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, Tracking Error: Ex-Ante versus Ex-Post Measures, WP01-15 3. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, The Asset Allocation Decision in a Loss Aversion World, WP01-14 4. Soosung Hwang and Mark Salmon, An Analysis of Performance Measures Using Copulae, WP01-13 5. Soosung Hwang and Mark Salmon, A New Measure of Herding and Empirical Evidence, WP01-12 6. Richard Lewin and Steve Satchell, The Derivation of New Model of Equity Duration, WP0111 7. Massimiliano Marcellino and Mark Salmon, Robust Decision Theory and the Lucas Critique, WP01-10 8. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Maria-Teresa Perez, Numerical Issues in Threshold Autoregressive Modelling of Time Series, WP01-09 9. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Ron Smith, Small Sample Properties of Panel Timeseries Estimators with I(1) Errors, WP01-08 10. Jerry Coakley and Ana-Maria Fuertes, The Felsdtein-Horioka Puzzle is Not as Bad as You Think, WP01-07 11. Jerry Coakley and Ana-Maria Fuertes, Rethinking the Forward Premium Puzzle in a Nonlinear Framework, WP01-06 12. George Christodoulakis, Co-Volatility and Correlation Clustering: A Multivariate Correlated ARCH Framework, WP01-05 13. Frank Critchley, Paul Marriott and Mark Salmon, On Preferred Point Geometry in Statistics, WP01-04 14. Eric Bouyé and Nicolas Gaussel and Mark Salmon, Investigating Dynamic Dependence Using Copulae, WP01-03 15. Eric Bouyé, Multivariate Extremes at Work for Portfolio Risk Measurement, WP01-02 16. Erick Bouyé, Vado Durrleman, Ashkan Nikeghbali, Gael Riboulet and Thierry Roncalli, Copulas: an Open Field for Risk Management, WP01-01 2000 1. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell , Valuing Information Using Utility Functions, WP00-06 2. Soosung Hwang, Properties of Cross-sectional Volatility, WP00-05 3. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, Calculating the Miss-specification in Beta from Using a Proxy for the Market Portfolio, WP00-04 4. Laun Middleton and Stephen Satchell, Deriving the APT when the Number of Factors is Unknown, WP00-03 5. George A. Christodoulakis and Steve Satchell, Evolving Systems of Financial Returns: AutoRegressive Conditional Beta, WP00-02 6. Christian S. Pedersen and Stephen Satchell, Evaluating the Performance of Nearest Neighbour Algorithms when Forecasting US Industry Returns, WP00-01 1999 1. Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn and Ian Marsh, How do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?, WP99-21 2. Soosung Hwang, John Knight and Stephen Satchell, Forecasting Volatility using LINEX Loss Functions, WP99-20 3. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, Improved Testing for the Efficiency of Asset Pricing Theories in Linear Factor Models, WP99-19 4. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, The Disappearance of Style in the US Equity Market, WP99-18 5. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Modelling Emerging Market Risk Premia Using Higher Moments, WP99-17 6. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Market Risk and the Concept of Fundamental Volatility: Measuring Volatility Across Asset and Derivative Markets and Testing for the Impact of Derivatives Markets on Financial Markets, WP99-16 7. Soosung Hwang, The Effects of Systematic Sampling and Temporal Aggregation on Discrete Time Long Memory Processes and their Finite Sample Properties, WP99-15 8. Ronald MacDonald and Ian Marsh, Currency Spillovers and Tri-Polarity: a Simultaneous Model of the US Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen, WP99-14 9. Robert Hillman, Forecasting Inflation with a Non-linear Output Gap Model, WP99-13 10. Robert Hillman and Mark Salmon , From Market Micro-structure to Macro Fundamentals: is there Predictability in the Dollar-Deutsche Mark Exchange Rate?, WP99-12 11. Renzo Avesani, Giampiero Gallo and Mark Salmon, On the Evolution of Credibility and Flexible Exchange Rate Target Zones, WP99-11 12. Paul Marriott and Mark Salmon, An Introduction to Differential Geometry in Econometrics, WP99-10 13. Mark Dixon, Anthony Ledford and Paul Marriott, Finite Sample Inference for Extreme Value Distributions, WP99-09 14. Ian Marsh and David Power, A Panel-Based Investigation into the Relationship Between Stock Prices and Dividends, WP99-08 15. Ian Marsh, An Analysis of the Performance of European Foreign Exchange Forecasters, WP99-07 16. Frank Critchley, Paul Marriott and Mark Salmon, An Elementary Account of Amari's Expected Geometry, WP99-06 17. Demos Tambakis and Anne-Sophie Van Royen, Bootstrap Predictability of Daily Exchange Rates in ARMA Models, WP99-05 18. Christopher Neely and Paul Weller, Technical Analysis and Central Bank Intervention, WP9904 19. Christopher Neely and Paul Weller, Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Reexamination, WP99-03 20. Christopher Neely and Paul Weller, Intraday Technical Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market, WP99-02 21. Anthony Hall, Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Using Bayesian Variable Selection Methods to Choose Style Factors in Global Stock Return Models, WP99-01 1998 1. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Implied Volatility Forecasting: A Compaison of Different Procedures Including Fractionally Integrated Models with Applications to UK Equity Options, WP98-05 2. Roy Batchelor and David Peel, Rationality Testing under Asymmetric Loss, WP98-04 3. Roy Batchelor, Forecasting T-Bill Yields: Accuracy versus Profitability, WP98-03 4. Adam Kurpiel and Thierry Roncalli , Option Hedging with Stochastic Volatility, WP98-02 5. Adam Kurpiel and Thierry Roncalli, Hopscotch Methods for Two State Financial Models, WP98-01