Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
FINAL REPORT
DECEMBER 2007
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECTION I.
I.1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 2
I.2
Travel Market Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 2
I.3
Cost and Revenue Estimates ............................................................................................................... 3
I.4
Financial Analysis Results Summary.................................................................................................. 3
I.5
Conclusion............................................................................................................................................. 5
SECTION II.
INTRODUCTION................................................................................................11
II.1
Introduction and Background ............................................................................................................ 12
II.2
Analysis Framework Introduction ..................................................................................................... 15
SECTION III.
TRAVEL MARKET ANALYSIS .........................................................................19
III.1
Existing Travel Conditions ................................................................................................................. 20
III.2
Forecasted Future Conditions ........................................................................................................... 38
III.3
Travel Market Summary...................................................................................................................... 47
SECTION IV.
COST ASSUMPTIONS......................................................................................49
IV.1
Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 50
IV.2
Capital Costs ....................................................................................................................................... 51
IV.3
Transaction Costs ............................................................................................................................... 52
IV.4
Operating Costs .................................................................................................................................. 53
IV.5
Maintenance Costs.............................................................................................................................. 54
IV.6
Renewal and Replacement Costs ...................................................................................................... 56
SECTION V.
December 2007
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .....................................................................................1
TOLL CASES.....................................................................................................59
V.1
Toll Considerations............................................................................................................................. 60
V.2
Toll Options ......................................................................................................................................... 61
V.3
Toll Revenue........................................................................................................................................ 64
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
SECTION VI.
SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ...........................................................65
VI.1
Methodology........................................................................................................................................ 66
VI.2
Financial Analysis Results Summary................................................................................................ 67
SECTION VII.
CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................71
APPENDIX A: TRAFFIC MODEL ENHANCEMENTS
APPENDIX B: TOLL REVENUE FORECASTING
APPENDIX C: PUBLIC RESEARCH ADVISORY GROUP FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS
December 2007
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
TABLE OF EXHIBITS
Exhibit I.2.1:
Travel Market Analysis Findings
2
Exhibit I.4.1:
Toll Cases Analyzed by PRAG
4
Exhibit I.5.1:
Summary of Cases – Public Finance Tax-Exempt Toll Revenue Bonds (Source: PRAG)
7
Exhibit I.5.2:
Summary of Cases – Public Private Finance (Source: PRAG)
8
Exhibit I.5.3:
Funding (Shortfall)/Surplus versus Peak Period Toll Rate Alternatives for Several Toll
Cases
9
Exhibit I.5.4:
Comparison of Base Toll Case with Demand Risk and Cost Variations for the PPP
Funding Model
9
Exhibit I.5.5:
Comparison of Base Toll Case with Demand Risk and Cost Variations for Traditional
Public (TP) Funding Model
10
Exhibit II.1.1:
Hampton Roads Region
12
Exhibit II.2.1:
Study Area Map
16
Exhibit II.2.2:
Model Enhancements Based on Toll Analysis Considerations
17
Exhibit III.1.1:
Average Daily VMT and the Portion of the Roadway System Experiencing Congestion
from 1982 to 2003
21
Exhibit III.1.2:
VMT and Peak-hour Spreading (number of Hours of Daily Congestion)
21
Exhibit III.1.3:
Elizabeth River Crossing Combined Volume by Time of Day (2000 and 2006) for
East/North-Bound and West/South-Bound Traffic
22
Exhibit III.1.4:
Study Area LOS Map
23
Exhibit III.1.5:
Elizabeth River Crossing Volumes by Time of Day (2006)
24
Exhibit III.1.6:
Major Origins and Destinations: Central Business Districts, Large Employers, and
Popular Destinations in Hampton Roads
26
Exhibit III.1.7:
Percentage of Hampton Roads Workers Working Outside Their Jurisdiction of
Residence, 1970-2005
28
Exhibit III.1.8:
Personal Travel by Trip Purpose (1977, 1983, 1990, and 1995)
28
Exhibit III.1.9:
Combined Breakdown of Average Annual Weekday Traffic (AAWDT)
on Elizabeth River Crossings by Vehicle Type (2000-2005)
29
Exhibit III.1.10:
Map of Modeling SD
30
Exhibit III.1.11:
Daily Vehicles Crossing the Elizabeth River by Superdistrict Pair (2000)
31
Exhibit III.1.12:
Top Six Superdistrict Pairs for Vehicles Crossing the Elizabeth River (2000)
32
Exhibit III.1.13:
Crossing Preference of Top Six Superdistrict Pairs (2000)
33
Exhibit III.1.14:
Top Superdistrict Pairs for Vehicles Crossing the Midtown Tunnel (2000)
34
Exhibit III.1.15:
General Geographic Distribution of Midtown Tunnel Crossings (2000)
35
Exhibit III.1.16:
Number of Vehicles Crossing Elizabeth River Screen Line by Trip Purpose/Vehicle Type
Category (2000)
36
Exhibit III.1.17:
Number of Vehicles Crossing the Midtown Tunnel by Trip
36
Exhibit III.1.18:
Crossing Preference by Trip Purpose/Vehicle Type (2000)
37
Exhibit III.2.1:
Elizabeth River Crossing Combined Volume by Time of Day
(2000, 2006, and 2030 projected) for East/North-Bound Traffic Without the MTCP
39
Exhibit III.2.2:
2000 and 2030 Daily Vehicle Volumes for Elizabeth River Crossing Facilities
39
Exhibit III.2.3:
Top Seven Superdistrict Pairs for Vehicles Crossing the Elizabeth River (2030)
40
Exhibit III.2.4:
SD-to-SD Daily Crossing Vehicles Table (2030)
41
Exhibit III.2.5:
Crossing Preference of Top Seven 2030 Elizabeth River Crossing SD Pairs
42
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit III.2.6:
Top Superdistrict Pairs for Vehicles Crossing the Midtown Tunnel (2030)
43
Exhibit III.2.7:
General Geographic Distribution of Midtown Tunnel Crossings (2030)
44
Exhibit III.2.8:
Number of Vehicles Crossing Elizabeth River Screen Line by Trip Purpose/Vehicle Type
Category (2030)
45
Exhibit III.2.9:
Number of Vehicles Crossing the Midtown Tunnel by Trip Purpose/Vehicle Type
Category (2030)
45
Exhibit III.2.10:
Crossing Preference by Trip Purpose/Vehicle Type (2030)
46
Exhibit III.3.1:
2000 Base-Year Travel Market Summary (Daily Vehicles)
47
Exhibit III.3.2:
2030 Future-Year Travel Market Summary (Daily Vehicles)
47
Exhibit III.3.3:
Comparative Distribution of Daily Traffic on Crossings in 2000 and 2030
47
Exhibit III.3.4:
Key Travel Market Observations
48
Exhibit IV.2.1:
Capital Costs by Year of Expenditure in 2007 and Year of Expenditure Dollars
51
Exhibit IV.4.1:
Initial Annual Operating Cost Estimates
53
Exhibit IV.4.2:
Operating Cost Schedule
54
Exhibit IV.5.1:
Initial Annual Maintenance Cost Estimates
55
Exhibit IV.5.2:
Maintenance Cost Schedule
55
Exhibit IV.6.1:
Projected Renewal and Replacement Costs in 2007 and Year of Expenditure Dollars
58
Exhibit V.2.1:
Toll Alternatives for Toll Concept 1 (no toll on MLK with constant toll rates)
61
Exhibit V.2.2:
Toll Alternatives for Toll Concept 2 (toll on MLK with constant toll rate)
61
Exhibit V.2.3:
Toll Alternatives for Toll Concept 3 (no toll on MLK with time of day toll rates)
62
Exhibit V.2.4:
Toll Alternatives for Toll Concept 4 (toll on MLK with time of day toll rates)
62
Exhibit V.2.5:
Hampton Roads Third Crossing (Alternative 9) with Toll Rates
64
Exhibit VI.1.1:
Toll Cases Analyzed by PRAG
66
Exhibit VI.2.1:
Summary of Cases – Public Finance Tax-Exempt Toll Revenue Bonds (Source: PRAG)
69
Exhibit VI.2.2:
Summary of Cases – Public Private Finance (Source: PRAG)
70
Exhibit VI.2.3:
Funding (Shortfall)/Surplus versus Peak Period Toll Rate Alternatives for Several Toll
Cases
73
Exhibit VI.2.4:
Comparison of Base Toll Case with Demand Risk and Cost Variations for the PPP
Funding Model
74
Exhibit VI.2.5:
Comparison of Base Toll Case with Demand Risk and Cost Variations for Traditional
Public (TP) Funding Model
74
December 2007
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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December 2007
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
SECTION I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
I.1
INTRODUCTION
The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) has commissioned the Midtown Tunnel Corridor
Project Toll Feasibility Study to assess the possibility of using toll revenue to fund the Midtown
Tunnel Corridor Project (MTCP), which consists of:
•
A new tunnel parallel to the existing Midtown Tunnel under the Elizabeth River, with
modifications to the existing Brambleton Avenue/Hampton Boulevard Interchange;
•
An extension of the Martin Luther King (MLK) Freeway to a new interchange at I-264; and
•
Improvements to the existing Midtown and Downtown Tunnels.
The toll feasibility study includes:
•
A Travel Market Analysis (TMA), completed by IBI Group, to characterize the Elizabeth
River vehicular crossing market;
•
The identification of several Toll Alternatives and associated revenues, estimated by
Charles River Associates (CRA); and
•
A complete financial analysis carried out by Public Resources Advisory Group (PRAG)
used to identify the range of feasible tolling options that conclude the study.
This document presents the assumptions, relevant findings, and conclusions of these activities.
I.2
TRAVEL MARKET ANALYSIS
The objective of the TMA is to describe the existing and future Elizabeth River vehicular crossing
markets. Key observations are shown in Exhibit I.4.1.
Exhibit I.2.1: Travel Market Analysis Findings
Characteristic
Observation
Regional Characteristics and Trends
Regional population is forecast to grow by 330,000 between 2000
Population
and 2026.
Regional employment is growing roughly in proportion to
Employment
population (approximately 1.75% per year).
VMT and congestion levels are significantly outpacing population
VMT and Congestion
growth, although congestion is most concentrated at regional
bottlenecks including the Elizabeth River crossings.
Elizabeth River Crossings
The expanded Midtown Tunnel is projected to carry a higher
proportion of total crossing volume in 2030, suggesting that
Traffic Volumes
additional and ‘latent’ demand will take advantage of doubled
Midtown Tunnel crossing capacity.
The primary travel market for the Midtown Tunnel is largely local,
but the expanded facility in 2030 carries a higher volume of
Traffic Patterns
cross-regional trips, suggesting that longer-distance trips will be
attracted to the expanded facility.
The expanded Midtown Tunnel attracts nearly double the volume
of Heavy and Light/Medium trucks in 2030 as in the 2000 base
Trip Purpose and Vehicle
year, suggesting that reduced congestion makes the Midtown
Type
Tunnel crossing more attractive to time sensitive freight
movements.
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
I.3
COST AND REVENUE ESTIMATES
A set of cost estimates associated with building, operating and maintaining the MTCP distributed
over time were established as inputs to the financial analysis. The following categories were
considered:
•
Capital Costs, defined as the initial costs of building the infrastructure, including all aspects
of planning, design, and construction. ‘High’ and ‘low’ capital cost estimates were
established at 175 percent of baseline estimates and 75 percent of baseline estimates.
•
Transaction Costs, representing the recurring cost of collecting the tolls (such as salaries
of toll collectors and electronic tolling collection (ETC) operating and equipment servicing).
•
Operating Costs, including lighting, ventilation, policing, and other activities/resources
required to operate the facilities, as well as administrative overhead.
•
Maintenance Costs, covering routine maintenance requirements such as renewing
pavement striping and signage, patching potholes, and making routine repairs.
•
Renewal and Replacement (R&R) Costs, the periodic planned expenses incurred to
renew and/or replace portions of the facility at the end of their useful (or ‘design’) lives. For
tunnels, bridges, and viaducts, these costs can be substantial. ‘Low’ and ‘high’ estimates
were established at 85 and 140 percent of the baseline, respectively.
Net revenue schedules were also established for several toll cases, with a variety of fundamental
assumptions about which facilities are tolled and the amount of the toll rates.
I.4
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS RESULTS SUMMARY
PRAG employed a detailed set of assumptions to conduct financial analysis of 25 Toll Cases, as
shown in Exhibit I.4.1, each under a traditional public finance structure as well as a Public Private
Partnership (PPP) framework. Case 2c1, identified as the ‘base’ case was further tested for
feasibility under high and low project cost estimates.
Results of the analyses for the publicly and PPP-financed toll concepts are provided in Exhibits
I.5.1 and I.5.2, respectively. Highlights from the analyses include:
•
Funding Structure: The base-case scenario yields a funding shortfall with both funding
structures. The shortfall for the publicly funded option was estimated to be 16% less than
the taxable PPP option ($155 versus $183 million). Other PPP options were analyzed such
as financing with PABs and TIFIA as well as Bank Debt. The PABs and TIFIA financing
showed a shortfall of $102 million while the Bank Debt was a shortfall of $185 million.
•
Construction Cost and R&R Expense Volatility: The base-case scenario may prove
feasible if the costs and expenses run lower than the base estimate; on the other hand, the
base-case may prove to be seriously inadequate if construction costs run higher.
•
Toll Rates: For baseline levels of demand and project costs, the toll alternatives with toll
rates higher than the base case ($1.00 toll in the tunnels) yielded a funding surplus while
those with lower toll rates resulted in larger shortfalls than the base case. Tolling of the
1
Note that PRAG considered three different Public-Private Partnership frameworks for Toll Case 2c, as described in Appendix C. One of
these, the “Taxable Debt” scenario, is the basis for comparison of Case 2c with the other toll cases in the main body of this Toll Feasibility
Study.
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
MLK and time-of-day toll schedules both yield higher net revenues. Moreover, scenarios
with higher tolling rates allow for higher debt service coverage and more robust funding
surplus pools.
•
Risk Analysis: At the ‘high’ level of demand considered, the baseline tolls on the tunnels
alone will not be sufficient to fund the project; with the addition of tolls on the MLK, ($1.00,
$0.50) the baseline levels would be sufficient. With the ‘low’ level of demand, toll rates
would need to be increased above the baseline levels. The construction of the Hampton
Roads Third Crossing does not appear to pose a significant financial risk to the MTCP
funding under the conditions assumed (i.e. that existing crossings of Hampton Roads could
be tolled). Although the new crossing would present an alternative to the MTCP for some
trips, it also opens up additional opportunities for travel through the MTCP.
Exhibit I.4.1: Toll Cases Analyzed by PRAG2
Case
1a
1b
1c
1d
1e
2a
2b
2c Base
Case3
2d
2e
3a
Toll Scenario
Toll Alternative
No Toll on MLK Freeway with Constant Tolls Toll 1
Toll 2
Toll 3
Toll 4
Toll 5
Toll on MLK Freeway with Constant Tolls
Toll 1
Toll 2
Toll 3
Toll Rates*
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$0.50, $0.15 on MLK
$0.75, $0.25 on MLK
$1.00, $0.50 on MLK
3b
Toll 4
Toll 5
No Toll on MLK Freeway with Time of Day Toll 1
Tolls
Toll 2
3c
Toll 3
3d
Toll 4
$1.50, $0.75 on MLK
$2.00, $1.00 on MLK
$0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50
$0.25 (NT)
$1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75
$0.50 (NT)
$1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25
$0.50 (NT)
$2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75
$0.75 (NT)
3e
Toll 5
4a
Toll on MLK Freeway with Time of Day Tolls Toll 1
4b
Toll 2
4c
Toll 3
(MD),
(MD),
(MD),
(MD),
$3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD),
$1.00 (NT)
$0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50
$0.25
MLK: $0.25 (AM, PM),
(MD), $0.15 (NT)
$1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75
$0.50
(NT)
MLK: $0.50 (AM, PM),
(MD), $0.15 (NT)
$1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25
$0.50
(NT)
MLK: $0.75 (AM, PM),
(MD),
(NT);
$0.15
(MD),
;
$0.25
(MD),
;
$0.50
2
Source: PRAG
Note that PRAG considered three different Public-Private Partnership frameworks for Toll Case 2c, as described in Appendix C. One of
these, the “Taxable Debt” scenario, is the basis for comparison of Case 2c with the other toll cases in the main body of this Toll Feasibility
Study.
3
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Case
Toll Scenario
Toll Alternative
4d
Toll 4
4e
Toll 5
5a
5b
5c
5d
5e
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK High
(125%
of
Freeway
Demand Growth)
Low
(75%
of
Demand Growth)
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK Freeway
High
(125%
of
Demand Growth)
Low
(75%
of
Demand Growth)
Hampton Roads Third Crossing with Tolls Hampton
Roads
on MLK Freeway
Third Crossing
Toll Rates*
(MD), $0.15 (NT)
$2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD),
$0.75
(NT)
;
MLK: $1.00 (AM, PM), $0.75
(MD), $0.25 (NT)
$3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD),
$1.00 (NT) ;
MLK: $1.25 (AM, PM), $1.00
(MD), $0.50 (NT)
$1.00
$1.00
$1.00, $0.50 on MLK
$1.00, $0.50 on MLK
$1.00, $0.50 on MLK
* In all toll alternatives, medium trucks have a toll rate 1.75 times the auto toll & heavy trucks have a toll rate 2.75 times the auto toll rate.
I.5
CONCLUSION
A direct assessment of MTCP toll funding feasibility can be made using the funding shortfall and
surplus estimates provided in PRAG’s financial analyses. In economic terms, the surplus/shortfall
values represent the difference between total sources and uses of funds. These values take into
account all expenditures and income, as well as the timing and financing methods of all financial
activity.
A value greater than zero (‘surplus’) indicates that financing methods meet or exceed expenditures
and that a particular scenario is financially feasible under the stated assumptions. Likewise, a
value less than zero (‘shortfall’) indicates that financing methods do not cover expenditures and that
a particular scenario will not be financially feasible without altering its assumed characteristics.
I.5.1 Feasibility
Conclusions regarding feasibility of the various tolling alternatives can be made by evaluating the
relative funding surpluses/shortfalls with respect to alternative tolling rates.
First, Exhibit I.5.3 illustrates the relationships between estimated funding shortfalls/surpluses and
peak-hour alternative toll rates for: Toll Case 1 (No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls); Toll Case 2
(Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls); and, Toll Case 3 (No Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls), each
with baseline estimates of costs and revenue.
Each case is also shown for both the PPP4 and Traditional Public (TP) financing models. The
following conclusions regarding tolling rates can be drawn from this analysis:
4
Note that PRAG considered three different Public/-rivate Partnership frameworks for Toll Case 2c, as described in Appendix C. One of
these, the “Taxable Debt” scenario, is the basis for comparison of Case 2c with the other toll cases in the main body of this Toll Feasibility
Study.
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
December 2007
•
All six of the scenarios shown ‘break even’ (i.e. are estimated to be feasible) for base peakhour tunnel toll rates somewhere between $1.00 and $1.25.
•
If the tolls are set too low, the funding shortfall will be significant, irrespective of the
financing model and particularities of the tolling plan. This is, in part, due to the fact that
the actual collection of the tolls requires a minimum level of resources.
•
Time of Day tolling results in a lower ‘break even’ base toll as well as both a faster growing
and larger surplus. This represents a higher ‘willingness to pay’ among travelers under
congested conditions.
•
In general, the difference between the financing models is small, with a slightly lower ‘break
even’ point and higher surplus indicated for traditional public financing versus the taxable
debt public-private financing option. The analysis assumes toll increases in line with
Consumer Price Index (CPI) at a rate of 2.5% annually. There may be other advantages or
disadvantages to these models that could assume a higher importance than this differential.
•
As noted in the previous section, the project will require higher tolls to ‘break even’ if the
MLK extension is not separately tolled.
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit I.5.1: Summary of Cases – Public Finance Tax-Exempt Toll Revenue Bonds (Source: PRAG)
Case
Senior
Bonds
Description
Subordinate
Bonds
Funding Withdrawal of PV Withdrawal of
(Shortfall)/ Revenue Surplus Revenue Surplus
Surplus
Over 50 Years
Over 50 Years
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
1a
Toll Alternative 1: ($0.50)
212,235,213
0
(571,711,492)
549,499,285
43,069,064
1b
Toll Alternative 2: ($0.75)
381,013,262
122,050,184
(359,094,261)
1,068,836,765
56,841,369
1c
Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00)
523,584,952
167,531,738
(218,260,892)
1,706,028,019
106,338,405
1d
Toll Alternative 4: ($1.50)
752,088,175
240,265,497
9,365,140
2,785,234,294
182,504,036
1e
Toll Alternative 5: ($2.00)
881,711,325
281,334,348
140,612,132
3,449,434,592
226,232,733
50,475,399
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2a
Toll Alternative 1: ($0.50, $0.15 on MLK)
235,305,377
6,421,238
(550,179,496)
631,849,196
2b
Toll Alternative 2: ($0.75, $0.25 on MLK)
423,844,288
148,269,710
(309,130,461)
1,228,852,427
56,985,689
2c
BASE CASE: Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
584,459,986
187,018,793
(155,952,700)
1,952,219,896
122,787,216
2d
Toll Alternative 4: ($1.50, $0.75 on MLK)
810,519,638
258,980,521
70,269,151
3,025,662,632
197,217,277
2e
Toll Alternative 5: ($2.00, $1.00 on MLK)
935,819,054
298,674,705
197,527,317
3,673,177,678
238,996,324
No Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
3a Toll Alternative 1: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
3b Toll Alternative 2: $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
3c
Toll Alternative 3: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
3d Toll Alternative 4: $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT)
3e Toll Alternative 5: $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
213,868,168
444,757,202
606,412,176
833,519,266
947,123,049
0
142,371,804
193,846,927
266,013,516
301,923,498
(568,865,113)
(295,734,236)
(135,210,722)
92,554,453
208,918,783
598,311,285
1,356,013,409
2,100,680,593
3,208,835,706
3,819,286,824
45,722,631
78,682,525
134,336,264
210,380,918
249,355,467
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
4a Toll Alternative 1: $0.75(AM, PM), $0.50(MD), $0.25(NT); MLK: $0.25(AM, PM), $0.15(MD), $0.15(NT)
4b Toll Alternative 2: $1.25(AM, PM), $0.75(MD), $0.50(NT); MLK: $0.50(AM, PM), $0.25(MD), $0.15(NT)
4c
Toll Alternative 3: $1.50(AM, PM), $1.25(MD), $0.50(NT); MLK: $0.75(AM, PM), $0.50(MD), $0.15(NT)
4d Toll Alternative 4: $2.50(AM, PM), $1.75(MD), $0.75(NT); MLK: $1.00(AM, PM), $0.75(MD), $0.25(NT)
4e Toll Alternative 5: $3.00(AM, PM), $2.50(MD), $1.00(NT); MLK: $1.25(AM, PM), $1.00(MD), $0.50(NT)
254,465,309
464,887,724
643,851,342
820,360,571
940,373,941
6,927,158
148,424,645
205,473,990
260,744,936
298,727,704
(535,534,859)
(271,140,691)
(91,010,251)
98,006,489
221,307,751
738,447,433
1,524,084,797
2,338,023,700
3,407,658,828
4,039,902,492
59,178,657
88,381,412
146,437,250
211,986,943
252,618,020
119,193,132
Demand Risk Scenarios
5a
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll)
571,303,670
182,773,830
(168,099,259)
1,910,874,921
5b
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll)
474,638,347
152,004,861
(264,883,548)
1,462,431,001
86,999,146
5c
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
641,483,395
205,205,357
(99,279,622)
2,205,912,451
141,148,495
5d
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
528,001,577
169,066,632
(212,666,946)
1,684,286,847
103,864,748
5e
Hampton Roads Third Crossing ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
615,924,120
196,695,939
(120,699,221)
2,176,092,617
136,113,295
187,018,793
26,330,244
2,029,141,700
131,406,944
187,018,793
(701,830,927)
1,752,215,548
98,614,251
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Low Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2c
Low Estimate. Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
584,459,986
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; High Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2c
High Estimate. Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
December 2007
584,459,986
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit I.5.2: Summary of Cases – Public Private Finance (Source: PRAG)
Case
Senior
Bonds
Description
Subordinate
Equity
Bonds Contribution*
Funding
Withdrawal of PV Withdrawal of
(Shortfall)/ Revenue Surplus Revenue Surplus
Surplus
Over 50 Years
Over 50 Years
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
1a
Toll Alternative 1: ($0.50)
189,740,778
0
20,250,000 (575,532,016)
549,315,209
1b
Toll Alternative 2: ($0.75)
338,878,361
109,047,036
21,790,000 (394,218,172)
1,067,240,721
42,909,088
56,361,759
1c
Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00)
464,330,141
149,216,407
45,600,000 (251,390,863)
1,703,310,117
105,544,290
1d
Toll Alternative 4: ($1.50)
664,361,418
213,182,949
77,550,000
(27,152,328)
2,779,917,287
181,205,747
1e
Toll Alternative 5: ($2.00)
776,651,880
248,952,206
94,800,000
100,851,007
3,441,855,384
224,591,664
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2a
Toll Alternative 1: ($0.50, $0.15 on MLK)
210,366,601
5,772,969
23,850,000 (553,704,789)
631,704,800
50,303,820
2b
Toll Alternative 2: ($0.75, $0.25 on MLK)
376,590,229
121,194,474
28,050,000 (353,434,553)
1,227,025,683
69,707,188
107,797,005
2c
BASE CASE: Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK) - Taxable Debt
519,584,717
193,002,586
45,100,000 (183,763,636)
1,861,072,206
2c
BASE CASE: Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK) - PABs & TIFIA
556,177,258
256,140,603
35,050,000 (102,248,316)
1,763,008,684
89,601,748
2c
2d
2e
BASE CASE: Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK) - Bank Debt
Toll Alternative 4: ($1.50, $0.75 on MLK)
Toll Alternative 5: ($2.00, $1.00 on MLK)
476,516,000
717,466,410
826,193,211
69,951,400
258,342,557
298,341,121
47,506,532 (184,700,000)
70,100,000
43,209,039
85,100,000 169,981,897
2,291,081,019
2,884,438,609
3,497,063,679
131,128,216
172,000,797
210,350,850
No Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
3a
Toll Alternative 1: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
190,196,705
3b
Toll Alternative 2: $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
394,825,392
3c
Toll Alternative 3: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
536,616,877
3d
Toll Alternative 4: $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT)
734,609,640
3e
Toll Alternative 5: $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
832,299,757
0
126,940,397
172,324,616
235,508,629
266,516,286
21,040,000 (572,340,378)
31,600,000 (330,858,672)
57,400,000 (169,422,990)
88,500,000
54,013,895
103,500,000 167,125,405
597,353,384
1,353,671,185
2,096,921,714
3,201,804,630
3,810,160,917
45,435,943
78,076,324
133,346,167
208,843,993
247,463,836
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Toll Alternative 1: $0.75(AM,PM),$0.50(MD),$0.25(NT);MLK:$0.25(AM,PM),$0.15(MD),$0.15(NT)
4a
4b
Toll Alternative 2: $1.25(AM,PM),$0.75(MD),$0.50(NT);MLK:$0.50(AM,PM),$0.25(MD),$0.15(NT)
4c
Toll Alternative 3: $1.50(AM,PM),$1.25(MD),$0.50(NT);MLK:$0.75(AM,PM),$0.50(MD),$0.15(NT)
4d
Toll Alternative 4: $2.50(AM,PM),$1.75(MD),$0.75(NT);MLK:$1.00(AM,PM),$0.75(MD),$0.25(NT)
227,445,177
410,087,268
568,564,762
718,262,368
6,209,774
131,532,448
210,614,619
264,996,780
28,600,000 (536,552,834)
34,800,000 (307,074,132)
53,000,000 (119,012,894)
75,300,000
67,805,744
727,900,188
1,521,345,814
2,229,792,073
3,250,388,407
59,984,423
87,402,345
129,241,159
189,442,500
4e
822,642,309
303,338,355
89,500,000
3,859,446,989
226,544,001
104,402,967
Toll Alternative 5: $3.00(AM,PM),$2.50(MD),$1.00(NT);MLK:$1.25(AM,PM),$1.00(MD),$0.50(NT)
189,341,146
Demand Risk Scenarios
5a
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll)
507,519,413
188,463,167
43,400,000 (196,025,372)
1,821,203,722
5b
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll)
422,704,297
157,132,405
30,300,000 (293,650,036)
1,391,926,200
74,556,654
5c
5d
5e
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
Hampton Roads Third Crossing ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
569,922,871
470,222,140
544,828,482
211,631,979
174,785,338
201,948,823
52,400,000 (126,948,143)
37,600,000 (240,768,456)
49,350,000 (148,749,263)
2,104,267,437
1,603,172,839
2,074,757,127
124,768,823
90,322,713
119,841,901
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Low Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2c
Low Estimate. Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
519,584,717
193,002,586
49,150,000
1,936,352,734
116,678,800
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; High Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2c
High Estimate. Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
519,584,717
193,002,586
17,850,000 (756,891,863)
1,749,312,728
71,419,892
2,569,308
* Equity Contribution is determined to be the amount that would yield a pre-tax rate of return of 12.00 percent.
December 2007
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
$400
Millions
Funding (Shortfall)/Surplus
Exhibit I.5.3: Funding (Shortfall)/Surplus versus Peak Period Toll Rate Alternatives for
Several Toll Cases
$300
$200
$100
$0
($100)
($200)
($300)
($400)
($500)
($600)
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
Peak Period T oll Rate
TP (tod tolls & MLK)
TP (constant tolls & no MLK)
TP (constant tolls & MLK)
PPP (tod tolls & MLK)
PPP (constant tolls & no MLK)
PPP (constant tolls & MLK)
Second, Exhibits I.5.4 and I.5.5 show comparisons of Toll Case 2 (Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls;
Baseline Estimate of Costs) with Demand Risk and High/Low Cost Scenarios for PPP5 and
Traditional Public Funding, respectively. All scenarios shown assume tolls on MLK, which would
yield the lowest toll on the tunnels and a closer relationship between tolls paid and miles traveled.
Millions
Funding (Shortfall)/Surplus
Exhibit I.5.4: Comparison of Base Toll Case with Demand Risk and Cost Variations for the
PPP Funding Model
$600
PPP (constant tolls &
M LK)
$400
$200
Low Costs
High Demand
$0
Low Demand
($200)
($400)
($600)
($800)
$0.50
High Costs
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
M idtown T oll Rate
5
Note that PRAG considered three different Public-Private Partnership frameworks for Toll Case 2c, as described in Appendix C. One of
these, the “Taxable Debt” scenario, is the basis for comparison of Case 2c with the other toll cases in the main body of this Toll Feasibility
Study.
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Millions
Funding (Shortfall)/Surplus
Exhibit I.5.5: Comparison of Base Toll Case with Demand Risk and Cost Variations for
Traditional Public (TP) Funding Model
$600
TP (constant tolls &
M LK)
$400
$200
Low Costs
High Demand
$0
Low Demand
($200)
($400)
High Costs
($600)
($800)
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
M idtown T oll Rate
Several additional conclusions can be drawn from these diagrams, including:
•
Under both funding models, if construction costs are lower than estimated or there is a
higher demand for the facility, the project may ‘break even’ or yield a surplus with a $1.00
base tunnel toll.
•
Toll Case 26 (constant tolls on Midtown and MLK) can yield the same funding surplus as the
low cost and high demand cases, by setting a base toll rate in the $1.15 to $1.40 range.
Likewise, reducing the toll rate on Toll Case 2 yields a funding deficit similar to that of the
low demand scenario. These observations imply that a relatively minor 15-30% higher toll
rate can help accelerate funding on the facility as well as cushion it against less favorable
revenue scenarios.
Based on the assumptions and analysis employed throughout this study, the following conclusions
can be made regarding toll feasibility:
•
A toll rate between $1.00 and $1.50 on the Midtown/Downtown Tunnel, increased for
inflation over time, can reasonably provide adequate ‘break even’ funding for the project
under several likely demand and cost scenarios, including provisions for long-term renewal
and replacement.
•
Tolling the MLK in addition to the Midtown/Downtown Tunnel improves the financial
feasibility of the project. If the MLK was not tolled, the Midtown/Downtown Tunnel would
have to be tolled at least 30% higher than it would be otherwise.
•
Time of Day tolling also helps improve the financial feasibility of the project.
6
Note that PRAG considered three different Public-Private Partnership frameworks for Toll Case 2c, as described in Appendix C. One of
these, the “Taxable Debt” scenario, is the basis for comparison of Case 2c with the other toll cases in the main body of this Toll Feasibility
Study.
December 2007
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
SECTION II. INTRODUCTION
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
II.1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
The Virginia Department of Transportation has commissioned the Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Toll Feasibility Study to assess the possibility of using toll revenue to fund the Midtown Tunnel
Corridor Project. This study includes:
•
A Travel Market Analysis to characterize the existing and future travel market served by
the new facilities;
•
The identification of several toll alternatives and associated revenues estimated using an
enhanced version of the regional transportation model; and
•
A complete financial analysis, based on revenue projections, cost estimates, and funding
assumptions, used to identify the range of feasible tolling options that conclude the study.
This document presents the assumptions, relevant findings, and conclusions of these activities.
Exhibit II.1.1: Hampton Roads Region
II.1.1
Study Region
The Hampton Roads (HR) region is home to nearly 1.6 million people and several urban centers,
including Portsmouth, Norfolk, Newport News, Hampton, and Virginia Beach (Exhibit II.1.1). The
region is also replete with natural waterways: Hampton Roads, the James River, and both branches
of the Elizabeth River.
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Significant sectors of the economy (e.g. ports, ship building, naval bases) have historically
benefited from access to these waterways. However, the waterways also create impediments to
regional movement of people and goods, and massive investments have been made in crossing
infrastructure over history. As population and economic activity increase over time, there is a rising
need to increase over- and under-water roadway capacity to connect regional activity centers and
to facilitate long-distance movement into, out of, and across the region.
II.1.2
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
The Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project, the motivation for this Toll Feasibility Study, is one of the
many regional projects proposed to address the capacity shortage. The need for the MTCP and
other bridge and tunnel projects is well documented in numerous engineering studies and planning
efforts recently prepared by the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (HRPDC) and the
Virginia Department of Transportation7.
The MTCP (Exhibit II.2.1) consists of a new tunnel under the Elizabeth River (parallel to the
Midtown Tunnel between Portsmouth and Norfolk), with improvements to Brambleton Avenue and
Hampton Boulevard Interchange, an extension of the Martin Luther King Freeway to a new
interchange at Interstate 264 (I-264), and improvements to the existing Midtown and Downtown
Tunnels. The project has been proposed and evaluated in various forms for the last 20 years.
The scarcity of public funding (local, state, and federal) for infrastructure expansion projects is a
recognized impediment to the construction of the MTCP. Fuel taxes, the primary source of nonfederal transportation funding in the state, have not changed since 19868, reducing the purchasing
power of those funds when adjusted for inflation. Moreover, the proportion of highway funds
available for new construction is also limited by the increasing operating/maintenance and debt
service requirements for existing, aging facilities.
In 2005, VDOT opted to pursue the MTCP as a Public-Private Partnership project, under the
amended Public-Private Transportation Act of 19959 and the agency continues to evaluate the
feasibility of this approach from many angles. A Public-Private Partnership approach to MTCP
would require tolling to offset initial and ongoing costs, and to recoup private investment in the
facility in lieu of or in addition to other public funds.
Highway tolling, particularly to support infrastructure construction, is not a new concept in the
region: The original Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel was built as a toll road in 1957 and tolled until
1976, when the bonds were paid off and the second portion was funded as a part of the Interstate
system under the Highway Trust Fund. The Virginia Beach-Norfolk Expressway (now I-264) was
built and funded by tolls from its construction in 1967 until 1995, when the tolls were retired. Even
the Berkley Bridge and Downtown Tunnel were tolled until 1986. The Chesapeake Bay BridgeTunnel (constructed 1964), the Jordan Bridge (repaired in 1995), the Coleman Bridge (1997) and
the Chesapeake Expressway (2001) are currently tolled facilities.
II.1.3
The Toll Feasibility Study
The purpose of this Toll Feasibility Study is to determine the conditions under which it would be
feasible to fund the Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project using tolls. Analysis was carried out for a
7
For example: Toll Feasibility Study (2005) prepared for the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (HRPDC), Virginia Department
of Transportation (VDOT), and U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration (FHWA); Draft Interchange Justification
Report for I-264 / Martin Luther King Freeway (2007) prepared for FHWA by VDOT; Congestion Management System Special Report: State
of Transportation in Hampton Roads (2006), HRPDC.
8
Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT), The Virginia Transportation Fact Book “Funding Trends” [http://www.virginiadot.org/about/
resources/FactBookFundingTrends.pdf] (October 2006).
9
VDOT Projects and Studies Coming Soon “Midtown Corridor and Tunnel Project” [http://www.vdot.virginia.gov/projects/constproject.asp?ID=473] (June 2007).
December 2007
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
selection of travel demand levels, tolling rates, and potential costs, resulting in a set of
recommended alternatives. The activities and conclusions are summarized in this report, as
follows:
December 2007
•
Section III is the Travel Market Analysis carried out to characterize the
existing and future travel markets likely to use an expanded Midtown Tunnel.
•
Section IV outlines all cost assumptions made during the feasibility analysis.
Capital costs, transaction costs, operating costs, maintenance costs, and repair
and renewal costs are all described in detail.
•
Section V includes a description of the toll cases considered in the analysis, as
well as revenue estimates for each alternative tolling rate.
•
Section VI summarizes the results of the financial analysis carried out by
Public Resources Advisory Group (PRAG).
•
Section VII is the final conclusion regarding the feasible—and infeasible—toll
alternatives for funding the project.
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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II.2
ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK INTRODUCTION
The toll feasibility analysis entails three discrete, but interrelated, components collaboratively
carried out by members of the project team:
•
A Travel Market Analysis, a qualitative and quantitative summary of the
unconstrained travel market likely to use an expanded Midtown Tunnel in the
future. The TMA was carried out primarily by IBI Group, with contributions by
Charles River Associates.
•
The Hampton Roads regional travel demand forecasting model was enhanced
then used to generate travel demand and revenue estimates for several tolling
alternatives for 2000 and 2030. This activity was completed by CRA.
•
The results of these two efforts were combined with other cost assumptions as
input to the financial analysis carried out by Public Resources Advisory Group.
The results of the financial analysis are the basis for the conclusions regarding
toll feasibility.
This section provides brief summaries of the methodologies employed in each activity.
II.2.1
Travel Market Analysis
The objective of the Travel Market Analysis is to identify and describe the travel market affected by
the construction of new facilities and the introduction of new tolls. The primary geographic focus of
the analysis consists of the existing and proposed facilities crossing the eastern branch of the
Elizabeth River between Portsmouth and Norfolk (i.e., the “Screen Line” shown in Exhibit II.2.1):
•
The Midtown Tunnel (US-58), a two-lane connection constructed in 1962 and
the Midtown Parallel Tunnel, a new, second bore proposed as part of the MTCP.
The resulting facility would be a couplet of one-way, two-lane tunnels carrying
U.S. 58 under the Elizabeth River by 2030.
•
The Berkley Bridge (I-264), constructed in 1952 and reconstructed/expanded to
eight lanes in 1991.
•
The “Campostella Bridge” (US-460, State Route 166 and 168), a local six-lane
arterial, which carries Brambleton Avenue.
The Screen Line captures the travel market available to MTCP projects.
characteristics of traffic are examined:
December 2007
•
Traffic Volumes (the amount of traffic on the facilities)
•
Traffic Patterns (the route preferences of travelers)
•
Trip Purpose (the work or non-work reason for travel)
•
Vehicle Type (passenger vehicle or truck)
In the TMA, four
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Vehicle Type and Trip Purpose are combined in the analysis because of their functional
relationships (e.g. most long-haul truckers are driving for work purposes, whereas passenger
automobiles are used for both work and non-work purposes).
Exhibit II.2.1: Study Area Map
II.2.2
Travel Demand Model
Traffic and revenue forecasts served as a key input to the financial analysis carried out for the
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project. Demand estimates serve to indicate whether toll revenue is
sufficient to fund a project, so it is critical that proper inputs and a sound forecasting approach are
employed to generate solid estimates10.
While a detailed, investment-grade traffic and revenue study is beyond the scope of this project, the
Hampton Roads regional travel demand forecasting model was enhanced and applied to generate
planning-level estimates of traffic and revenues.
The Hampton Roads model, jointly developed and maintained by VDOT and the Hampton Roads
Planning District Commission, is a traditional four-step travel demand model that operates in TP+
software11. Other features of the unadjusted model include an extensive Traffic Analysis Zone
structure (1480 TAZ), three trip purposes (Home Based Work, Home Based Other, and Non-Home
Based), High Occupancy Vehicles (HOV))/Single Occupancy Vehicles (SOV) distinction, and a full
10
Muller, Robert H. “Tollroad Feasibility Studies: An Historical Perspective.” Presented at the 2001 Transportation Research Board Annual
Meeting, 2001.
TP+ (Transportation Planning Plus) is a specialized transportation planning software package used to implement 4-step travel demand
forecasting models. It is released and maintained by Citilabs, and is one of the most popular travel demand models. More information on
TP+ can be found at: http://www.citilabs.com/tpplus/
11
December 2007
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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daily traffic assignment. The underlying model system has been employed in many transportation
studies in the region.
II.2.2.1
REGIONAL MODEL ENHANCEMENT
A number of enhancements to the Hampton Roads model were made to improve its ability to
forecast toll road travel demand and revenue, as described in Exhibit II.2.2.
Exhibit II.2.2: Model Enhancements Based on Toll Analysis Considerations
Toll Analysis Consideration
Model Enhancement
Trucks generally cause more
rapid deterioration of roadway
infrastructure than cars and
are charged higher toll rates.
Light/medium trucks (two to four axles) and heavy trucks (five
or more axles) were added as specific vehicle classes,
whereas trucks were not explicitly modeled in the original
model.
Some types of freight traffic
are more time-sensitive than
others, which are reflected in
route choice and willingness
to pay tolls.
Heavy truck traffic was disaggregated into four equally-sized
quartiles representing a range of value of time (VOT): $7.50,
$20.00, $35.00, and $50.00 per hour in 2000 dollars, based on
synthesized information from multiple sources of a literature
survey.
Congestion and competing
routes
affect
travelers’
willingness to pay tolls.
A time of day assignment with four time periods (AM, PM, Midday, and nighttime) was implemented to allow toll decisions to
vary with congestion levels through the day.
Drivers’ willingness and ability
to pay tolls is also correlated
with earnings.
Work-Based automobile trips were segmented into four
separate groups with different values of time (VOTs) to better
reflect differences of how travelers respond to tolls. The
disaggregating was based on 2000 Census county household
annual income levels and Journey to Work trip rates:
• Income Group 1: < $24,999 = 17.8% of workbased trips
• Income Group 2: $25,000 - $49,999 = 28.0% of
work-based trips
• Income Group 3: $50,000 - $74,999 = 26.9% of
work-based trips
• Income Group 4: > $74,999 = 27.3% of workbased trips
The work-purpose VOTs for each of these income groups
were set at 40% of the average wage rate, determined from
household income using a U.S. Department of Transportation
(USDOT) recommended approach.
The resultant VOTs are $2.83, $7.14, $12.02, and $22.18 per
hour in 2000 dollars, respectively, for Income Groups 1
through 4.
Long-term travel patterns
December 2007
To reflect travelers’ long-term route adjustments based on
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Toll Analysis Consideration
consider congested network
travel times.
Model Enhancement
congested travel conditions, a feedback loop considers
congested travel times as a part of the trip distribution step.
A more detailed description of these enhancements and the validation of the model is provided in
Appendix A.
II.2.2.2
BASE AND FORECAST ANALYSIS
For the TMA, the enhanced travel demand model was used to run a ‘base year’ scenario calibrated
to the year 2000 and ‘future year’ scenarios that reflect that state of the transportation network in
2030, as defined by the unenhanced model maintained by VDOT and the HRPDC’s 2030 LongRange Transportation Plan: Plan Contents To-Date and Summary of Planning Process, February
2007. The specific scenarios presented in the TMA were “untolled,” in that no new or planned tolls
are imposed on any facilities. This method was employed to gauge unconstrained travel demand
for Elizabeth River crossings.
The model was also primarily used to generate 2020 and 2030 traffic forecasts for the financial
analysis. The specific data requirements for the financial analysis were satisfied by converting
model outputs to daily and annual gross revenue schedules through a number of steps detailed in
Appendix B.
II.2.3
Financial Feasibility Analysis
PRAG conducted a financial analysis to determine the feasibility of funding the MTCP under two
different toll-funding models:
•
Traditional Public Financing: Under this model, toll revenue bonds are issued by a
governmental entity or a not-for-profit 63-20 corporation.
•
Public-Private Partnership:
concession agreement.
A PPP would be made possible through a long-term
Annualized revenue estimates and cost estimates, as well as other financial assumptions outlined
in forthcoming sections, served as the ‘inputs’ to the models. The models were applied to several
specific toll cases and used to generate funding projections, such as lump-sum revenue surpluses
and shortfalls, that can be used to determine the relative financial feasibility (or infeasibility) of the
cases. PRAG’s methodology is described in Appendix C.
December 2007
Page 18
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
SECTION III.TRAVEL MARKET ANALYSIS
December 2007
Page 19
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
III.1
EXISTING TRAVEL CONDITIONS
The purpose of this section is to characterize the existing travel conditions in the study area as a
basis for projecting future travel conditions. It includes:
•
A review of historical trends over the last 30 years;
•
The effects of new facilities (tolled and untolled) on traffic patterns in the region; and
•
A review of existing travel conditions by sub-market.
III.1.1
Historic Travel and Socio-Economic Trends
III.1.1.1
REGIONAL TRAFFIC GROWTH
According to the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission, all modes of transportation (air,
rail, maritime, highway, and public transit) in HR have experienced growth in the last several
decades12.
Vehicle ownership and miles traveled, in particular, have increased much more than population:
•
Between 1970 and 2006, HR’s population grew by 48%, while passenger vehicle ownership
increased by 273% and other vehicle (e.g. trailer truck) registration grew by 132%13.
•
Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled in the metro area increased by over 66% in 20 years14.
III.1.1.2
CONGESTION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION
Predictably, congestion has also become more of a problem, though not uniformly. The portion of
the system’s lane-miles experiencing congestion has increased more sharply than VMT over time,
indicating that more of the roadways have exceeded capacity (Exhibit III.1.1). However, when the
Monitor Merrimac Memorial Bridge Tunnel (I-664) and the Berkley Bridge were built/improved in
1991, congestion “flattened” and the system experienced only a relatively minor increase during the
few years just after it opened.
The effects of capacity changes across the roads are especially noticeable because crossing
options are limited. Circuitous routes along I-664 or I-64 are the only bypass options, and are
inconvenient to central Norfolk or Portsmouth.
III.1.1.3
PEAK SPREADING
Because movements cannot spill over onto alternative routes when volume approaches capacity,
peak-hour traffic has also been spreading over more hours of the day. The number of “rush hours”
(hours of congested traffic conditions) in the metro area has increased over time (Exhibit II.2.2).
The relief introduced by new infrastructure projects is evident in the reduced congestion spreading
in the early 1990s. It took five years from the completion of I-664 for the system peak-hour spread
to return to its pre-1990 values, after which it has continued to climb.
12
HRPDC, Congestion Management System Special Report: State of Transportation in Hampton Roads (2006).
HRPDC, Hampton Roads Data Book (May 2007).
14
Texas Transportation Institute (TTI), 2005 Annual Urban Mobility Report (May 2005).
13
December 2007
Page 20
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
60,000
60%
55,000
55%
50,000
50%
45,000
45%
40,000
40%
35,000
35%
30,000
Daily VMT
System Congestion
25,000
25%
20%
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20,000
30%
Portion of System (Lane-Miles)
Vehicle-Miles of Travel
Exhibit III.1.1: Average Daily VMT and the Portion of the Roadway System Experiencing
Congestion from 1982 to 20038
Year
Peak spreading is also apparent on the Elizabeth River Screen Line crossings. Total daily
vehicular traffic using the crossings has increased in line with regional VMT. Also, between 2000
and 2006 the morning peak period volume of east/northbound lanes actually decreased, while the
overall volume during the middle of the day was consistently higher (Exhibit III.1.3), indicating that
there are capacity constraints during the peak periods. In the westbound direction (also Exhibit
III.1.3), the peak volume increased only very slightly and the peak spreading continued.
60,000
7
55,000
6.5
50,000
6
45,000
5.5
40,000
5
Daily VMT
Daily Congested Hours
35,000
4.5
4
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
30,000
Number of Hours
Vehicle-Miles of Travel
Exhibit III.1.2: VMT and Peak-hour Spreading (number of Hours of Daily Congestion) 15
Year
15
Texas Transportation Institute (TTI), 2005 Annual Urban Mobility Report (May 2005).
December 2007
Page 21
12
:0
1: 0 A
0 M
2: 0 A
0 M
3: 0 A
0 M
4: 0 A
0 M
5: 0 A
0 M
6: 0 A
0 M
7: 0 A
0 M
8: 0 A
00 M
9: A
10 00 M
: A
11 00 M
: A
12 00 M
:0 AM
1: 0 P
0 M
2: 0 P
0 M
3: 0 P
0 M
4: 0 P
0 M
5: 0 P
0 M
6: 0 P
0 M
7: 0 P
00 M
8: P
0 M
9: 0 P
10 00 M
: P
11 00 M
:0 PM
0
PM
West/South-Bound Vehicles per 15 Minutes
12
:0
1: 0 A
0 M
2: 0 A
0 M
3: 0 A
0 M
4: 0 A
0 M
5: 0 A
0 M
6: 0 A
0 M
7: 0 A
0 M
8: 0 A
00 M
9: A
10 00 M
: A
11 00 M
: A
12 00 M
:0 AM
1: 0 P
0 M
2: 0 P
0 M
3: 0 P
0 M
4: 0 P
0 M
5: 0 P
0 M
6: 0 P
0 M
7: 0 P
00 M
8: P
0 M
9: 0 P
10 00 M
: P
11 00 M
:0 PM
0
PM
East/North- Bound Vehicles per 15 Minutes
IBI GROUP
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Virginia Department of Transportation
Exhibit III.1.3: Elizabeth River Crossing Combined Volume by Time of Day (2000 and 2006)
for East/North-Bound and West/South-Bound Traffic
December 2007
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
2000
2006
Capacity
1,000
500
0
15-Minute Interval Beginning at Clock Time
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
2000
2006
Capacity
1,000
500
0
15-Minute Interval Beginning at Clock Time
Page 22
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
In 2006, more than 213,000 vehicles crossed the Elizabeth River Screen Line (the Midtown,
Berkley and Campostella crossings) on an average weekday, with about 104,000 of the total daily
vehicles crossing in the east/north-bound direction and about 109,000 crossing in the west/southbound direction. The slight directional imbalance is likely a result of vehicles circumventing Screen
Line facilities in the morning, possibly via the Monitor-Merrimac or I-64, then shifting to cross the
Screen Line in the afternoon.
At these volumes, the Screen Line facilities are operating at or near capacity. During the p.m. peak,
the facilities all operate at a Level of Service (LOS) E or F except the Berkley Bridge north/east,
which operates at LOS D (see Exhibit III.1.4). The morning peak is slightly less congested, with the
Campostella Bridge operating at a LOS D, but the other facilities still at E or F16.
Exhibit III.1.4: Study Area LOS Map17
The 2006 average weekday volume conditions by time of day for the three Screen Line facilities are
shown in Exhibit III.1.5. In 2006, both directions of the Midtown Tunnel operated at capacity for
most of the business day. The Berkley Bridge only exceeded capacity during the peak periods.
The Campostella Bridge reached southbound capacity in the afternoon peak, and still had some
room for growth in the northbound direction during the morning commute.
16
17
HRPDC, Congestion Management System: Traffic Volumes and Peak Hour Congestion Levels Part 2: Technical Appendix (April 2005).
HRPDC, Congestion Management System Special Report: State of Transportation in Hampton Roads (2006), pp 3.
December 2007
Page 23
12
:0
0
1: A M
00
2: A M
00
3: A M
00
4: A M
00
5: A M
00
6: A M
00
7: A M
00
8: A M
00
9: A M
0
10 0 A
:0 M
11 0 A
:0 M
12 0 A
:0 M
0
1: P M
00
2: P M
00
3: P M
00
4: P M
00
5: P M
00
6: P M
00
7: P M
00
8: P M
00
9: P M
0
10 0 P
:0 M
11 0 P
:0 M
0
PM
West/South-Bound Vehicles
per 15 Minutes (2006)
:0
0
1: AM
00
2: AM
00
3: AM
00
4: AM
00
5: AM
00
6: AM
00
7: AM
00
8: AM
00
9: AM
0
10 0 A
:0 M
11 0 A
:0 M
0
12 A
:0 M
0
1: PM
00
2: PM
00
3: PM
00
4: PM
00
5: PM
00
6: PM
00
7: PM
00
8: PM
00
9: PM
0
10 0 P
:0 M
11 0 P
:0 M
0
PM
12
East/North-Bound Vehicles
per 15 Minutes (2006)
IBI GROUP
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Virginia Department of Transportation
Exhibit III.1.5: Elizabeth River Crossing Volumes by Time of Day (2006)
1600
1400
December 2007
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
15-Minute Interval Beginning at Clock Time
Berkley E
Berkley W
Capacity
Capacity
Midtown E
Midtown W
Capacity
Capacity
Campostella N
Campostella S
Capacity
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
15-Minute Interval Beginning at Clock Time
Capacity
Page 24
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
III.1.1.4
MAJOR REGIONAL TRIP GENERATORS
Major regional trip generators (mapped on Exhibit III.1.6) over the last couple of decades have
included:
•
U.S. Military Facilities:
•
Norfolk Navy Base (Naval Station Norfolk), the world’s largest naval
base, is located on 4,300 acres of Sewells Point in Norfolk.
•
Langley Air Force Base, one of the oldest air bases in the U.S., employs
about 8,800 military personnel and 2,800 civilians on 4,900 acres in
Hampton.18
•
The Norfolk Naval Shipyard in Portsmouth services military vessels and
provides industrial services to non-military clientele. According to the
Shipyard, 85% of their workforce comes from Hampton Roads19.
•
Naval Medical Center Portsmouth provides care to military personnel
(active and retired), their beneficiaries, and other authorized personnel. It
is also a military medical training center.
The U.S. Military was the largest employment sector in Hampton Roads in 1969 when
it provided a quarter of regional jobs. Since then, military employment has declined by
20% to 108,000 jobs and now represents the third largest regional employment sector.
•
Marine Terminals:
•
Norfolk International Terminals
•
Portsmouth Marine Terminal
•
Newport News Marine Terminal
These three marine terminals in Hampton Roads are all operated by the Virginia Port
Authority, which handled a total of 16 million short tons of general cargo in 2005, more
than five times 1973 volumes. Combined, these facilities represent the third largest
U.S. East-Coast general cargo port.20 While the marine shipping industry is not a
large-scale employer, it does nevertheless rely heavily upon the highway
transportation network for freight distribution.
•
Central Business Districts (CBDs):
•
Norfolk: The last twenty years have brought significant renewal to
downtown Norfolk, a historical center for port activities blighted by
suburban-flight during the mid-twentieth century. A newly revitalized
Downtown offers tourist destinations (e.g., the Waterside Convention
Center and Festival Marketplace, MacArthur Center, the U.S.S.
Wisconsin) as well as an increasing residential, shopping, and business
base.
18
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/langley.htm (June 20, 2007).
http://www.nnsy1.navy.mil/demographics/DMGRPH.HTM (June 20, 2007)
20
Virginia Port Authority, Comprehensive Annual Financial Report For Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2006.
19
December 2007
Page 25
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
•
Portsmouth:
Portsmouth’s downtown is also in the midst of
redevelopment and the City is actively seeking developers to build
housing, commercial, and light-office spaces in the downtown area.
These new developments and the existing amenities largely cater to
residents and day-workers. The City also boasts of five popular
museums.
•
Hampton:
Several of Hampton’s neighborhoods (Buckroe, Coliseum
Central, Downtown Hampton, Kecoughtan, King Street and Phoebus) are
being strategically redeveloped by the City.
The Master Plan for
Downtown Hampton includes increased clusters of housing, commercial,
and waterfront development, as well as parks and improved
transportation connections.
Exhibit III.1.6: Major Origins and Destinations: Central Business Districts, Large Employers,
and Popular Destinations in Hampton Roads
LEGEND
N
K
H
A
Norfolk Naval Base
B
Norfolk International Terminals
C
Newport News Shipbuilding
D
Norfolk Naval Shipyard
E
Naval Medical Center
F
Norfolk Central Business District
G
Portsmouth Central Business District
H
Hampton Central Business District
I
Virginia Beach Central Business District
J
L
Norfolk International Airport
Newport News/Williamsburg International
Airport
Portsmouth Marine Terminal
M
Newport News Marine Terminal
N
Langley Air Force Base
K
M
C
A
B
J
I
F
L
E
G
•
December 2007
D
Virginia Beach: Best known as a seaside resort, Virginia Beach draws
tourists every year to its ocean-front hotels, restaurants, and other
attractions in the sprawling, urbanized northern part of the city. The
southern part of the city is largely undeveloped. The city is limited in the
extent of its physical growth, though it may continue to grow in density.
Page 26
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
•
Airports:
•
Norfolk International Airport is located just off of I-64 in northeastern
Norfolk.
•
Newport News/Williamsburg International Airport is in Newport News,
also accessible by I-64.
Air travel in the region has increased over the last ten years, with destinations
throughout the eastern and southern U.S. Both airports are in urbanized areas, linked
by busy portions of the Interstate highway system.
An immediate observation about the distribution of these major trip generators is their proximity to
the region’s major waterways. Coupled with the distribution of population and the trip generation
among these major trip generators, the importance of transportation capacity across the Elizabeth
River Screen Line and other waterways is immediately apparent.
III.1.1.5
R E G I O N A L E M P L O Y M E N T A N D D I S T R I B U T I O N T R EN D S
The top five employment sectors in the Hampton Roads region in 2005 were:
1. Service Industries, which include administrative, waste management, education,
healthcare, and professional/technical services (collectively 286,000 jobs or 28% of the
workforce). In the majority of Hampton Roads jurisdictions, the school system and the
hospital are among the top employers.
2. Retail Trade, including activity supported by residents and tourists to the region (108,000
jobs, 10.7% of the regional workforce). This activity, like service sector employment, is
highly decentralized around the region.
3. Military Employment (108,000 jobs, 10.6% of the regional workforce), which tends to be
nodal at the major military installations describe previously.
4. State and Local Government (107,000 jobs, 10.5% of the workforce). As with education
and medical services, in most Hampton Roads jurisdictions, the local government is a
major employer. VDOT, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), and
other state departments also have regional offices in Hampton Roads.
5. Finance, Insurance and Real-Estate (73,000 jobs, 7% of the workforce)21.
The regional distribution of employment, and hence travel patterns, have shifted over time. While
urban fringe, suburban, and exurban locations continue to attract new development, central cities
are experiencing revitalization and increased employment and economic activity.
Hampton Roads commuters, like those nationally, are traveling further to work and have become
more likely to reside in a jurisdiction other than their place of work (Exhibit III.1.7). This trend is
common in the U.S. and commutes have lengthened nationally as well as locally, especially in
jurisdictions on the outer edges of the region. 22
21
22
HRPDC, Hampton Roads Data Book (May 2007).
HRPDC, Congestion Management System: The State of Transportation in Hampton Roads Part I (December 2004), pp 21.
December 2007
Page 27
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit III.1.7: Percentage of Hampton Roads Workers23 Working Outside Their Jurisdiction
of Residence, 1970-200524
III.1.1.6
T R A V E L P A T T E R N S B Y T R I P P U R P O SE
Automobile vehicle trips are commonly categorized as either “work-related” or “non-work-related”
travel for planning purposes. Nationally, while commute trips (generally work-based) have
increased over the last thirty years, personal travel (generally non-work based) has increased even
more quickly (see Exhibit III.1.8)25.
Exhibit III.1.8: Personal Travel by Trip Purpose (1977, 1983, 1990, and 1995)26
23
Hampton Roads “MSA” refers to the 2005 “Metropolitan Statistical Area” defined for the U.S. Census.
Source: HRPDC, The State of Transportation in Hampton Roads presented by Farmer, Dwight L., P.E. on January 17, 2007, pp 11.
25
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics,The Changing Face of Transportation BTS00-007,
Washington, DC: 2000.
24
December 2007
Page 28
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
As recent ass 2001, the majority of national daily trips (over 82%) were made for non-work
purposes and only 18% were for work or work-related reasons.27
Work-related and non-work-related trip purposes are further disaggregated for travel demand
modeling purposes, as described later in this study.
III.1.1.7
T R A V E L P A T T E R N S B Y V E H I C L E T Y PE
The proportion of automobiles versus trucks traveling Hampton Roads roadways and the Screen
Line facilities in particular has not changed significantly in the years for which this datum is
available (2000 to present). Approximately 95% of average annual weekday traffic across the
Screen Line is automobile traffic, with the remaining 5% rather evenly divided between Heavy and
Light/Medium Trucks (Exhibit III.1.9). A gradual trend of increasing automobile traffic and
corresponding reductions in Heavy and Light/Medium truck traffic have occurred in recent years.
Exhibit III.1.9: Combined Breakdown of Average Annual Weekday Traffic (AAWDT)
on Elizabeth River Crossings by Vehicle Type (2000-2005)28
Portion of Total AAWDT
100%
98%
Heavy Truck
Light/Med Truck
Car/Bus
96%
94%
92%
90%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
26
U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics,The Changing Face of Transportation BTS00-007, Washington, DC:
2000, Figure 5-7.
U.S. Department of Transportation, The 2001 National Household Travel Survey, daily trip file.
28
Source: Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT), Average Daily Traffic Volumes with Vehicles Classification Data on Interstate,
Arterial and Primary Routes (for years 2001 through 2005).
27
December 2007
Page 29
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
III.1.2
Base-Year Travel Characteristics
This section describes the results of the enhanced regional travel demand model for the base-year
(2000).
III.1.2.1
S C R E E N L I N E T R A F F I C VO L U M E S
Under base-year conditions, according to the enhanced regional travel demand model, there were
190,500 daily vehicles crossing the Screen Line facilities, with 32,999 on the Midtown
,
35,277 on the Campostella, and 122,210 on the Berkley.
The directionality, spread, and Level of Service induced by these volumes are similar to the
historical and measured 2006 traffic data presented in previous sections.
III.1.2.2
TRAVEL ANALYSIS SUPERDISTRICT DEFINITIONS
Thirteen superdistricts (SDs) were defined in the enhanced travel demand model to analyze
macroscopic regional travel patterns, as illustrated on Exhibit III.1.10. The SDs generally
correspond to jurisdictional boundaries with the exception of Portsmouth and Norfolk, which were
divided into three superdistricts each. The model was used to estimate base-year travel data for
the Screen Line facilities.
Exhibit III.1.10: Map of Modeling SD
December 2007
Page 30
IBI GROUP
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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III.1.2.3
S C R E E N L I N E T R A V E L VO L U M E S B Y S U P E R D I S T R I C T
About 51% of the base-year Screen Line crossing traffic is generated among six (6) bidirectional
SD pairs, each comprising 5% or more of daily traffic:
1. Norfolk Central - Chesapeake (17% of daily traffic)
2. Norfolk North - Chesapeake (11% of daily traffic)
3. Norfolk East - Chesapeake (6% of daily traffic)
4. VA Beach - Chesapeake (6% of daily traffic)
5. VA Beach - Norfolk Central (5% of daily traffic)
6. VA Beach - Isle of Wight (5% of daily traffic)
A complete matrix of base-year Elizabeth River crossing volume traveling between bi-directional SD
pairs is provided in Exhibit III.1.11. The top six SDs traffic volumes are shown in boldface, and a
schematic of these top six superdistrict pairs is shown in Exhibit III.1.12.
Chesapeake
Norfolk
North
Norfolk
Central
Norfolk
East
Portsmouth
Central
Portsmouth
South
Portsmouth
North
VA Beach
Suffolk
Isle
Wight
Hampton
Newport
News
Upper
Peninsula
December 2007
Upper Peninsula
Newport News
Hampton
Isle of Wight
Suffolk
VA Beach
Portsmouth North
Portsmouth South
Portsmouth Central
Norfolk East
Norfolk Central
Norfolk North
Chesapeake
Exhibit III.1.11: Daily Vehicles Crossing the Elizabeth River by Superdistrict Pair (2000)
9
20,570
0
33,084
2,155
2,872
11,699
0
2,260
0
472
4,933
6,829
3,214
0
1
4,477
5,952
2,709
0
0
135
2,179
2,393
1,058
0
0
0
11,530
388
10,370
77
8,467
8,554
4,017
0
79
3,557
2,946
2,102
0
0
0
6,242
0
69
2,513
3,009
1,812
0
0
0
9,160
0
0
1,677
0
225
0
459
187
7
1
0
0
0
697
0
605
47
38
0
0
440
0
0
0
0
3,716
0
219
0
265
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
of
0
Page 31
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
The majority of daily Screen Line crossing trips are relatively short (within the urbanized region).
Over 40% of daily traffic has one trip end in Chesapeake. The Isle of Wight to VA Beach
superdistrict pair is the only top SD pair likely to generate trips longer than 30 miles. All top six SD
pairs are in South Hampton Roads. The Peninsula is an endpoint of only 4.5% of daily crossings.
Exhibit III.1.12: Top Six Superdistrict Pairs for Vehicles Crossing the Elizabeth River (2000)
III.1.2.4
SCREEN LINE CROSSING PREFERENCE
About 60% of the total daily base-year Elizabeth River crossing volume uses the Berkley Bridge.
The remainder is divided almost evenly between the Midtown Tunnel and Campostella Bridge
(about 20% each), with a slight preference for the Midtown crossing in the east/northbound
direction and the Campostella in the west/southbound direction.
The crossing preferences for the top six SD pairs are shown graphically in Exhibit III.1.13. Of these
six pairs, about sixty percent use the Berkley Bridge, while almost 31% use the Campostella Bridge
and only 7% use the Midtown Tunnel.
December 2007
Page 32
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit III.1.13: Crossing Preference of Top Six Superdistrict Pairs (2000)
December 2007
Page 33
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
III.1.2.5
M I D T O WN T U N N E L PR I M A R Y M A R K E T
The primary base-year markets for the Midtown Tunnel are shorter trips, clustered mostly around
Portsmouth and Norfolk. The Midtown Tunnel is probably not the preferred crossing of the baseyear top SD-pair volume because many of these pairs have an origin or destination in Chesapeake,
which is better served by the other crossings. The top six pairs for the Midtown Tunnel are as
follows, shown graphically in Exhibit III.1.14:
1. Norfolk Central - Portsmouth Central (3,300 vehicles per day)
2. Norfolk North – Chesapeake (2,600 vehicles per day)
3. Norfolk North - Portsmouth Central (2,470 vehicles per day)
4. Norfolk Central - Portsmouth South (2,460 vehicles per day)
5. Norfolk North - Portsmouth South (2,150 vehicles per day)
6. Norfolk Central – Chesapeake (2,080 vehicles per day)
Exhibit III.1.14: Top Superdistrict Pairs for Vehicles Crossing the Midtown Tunnel (2000)
A general geographic disaggregating of the base-year Midtown Tunnel crossing market (shown in
Exhibit III.1.15.) confirms the observation that travel is primarily local. Short-distance travel
between Norfolk and Portsmouth comprises almost half of the traffic, followed in proportion by
travel between Norfolk and western jurisdictions.
December 2007
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Exhibit III.1.15: General Geographic Distribution of Midtown Tunnel Crossings (2000)
8%
4%
8%
46%
15%
19%
Local (Norfolk - Portsmouth)
West (Norfolk - Suffolk/Isle of Wight)
South (Norfolk & Chesapeake)
Cross-Regional (Virginia Beach & Suffolk/Isle of Wight)
Peninsula (Hampton/Newport News/Upper Peninsula - Southside)
Other
III.1.2.6
TRIP PURPOSE AND VEHICLE TYPE
The following Trip Purpose/Vehicle Type groupings were modeled for the purpose of understanding
the MTCP travel market:
•
SOV Work-Based: Single occupancy vehicle trips with one trip end at work,
such as commutes or work-related trips made during a work day.
•
Non-Work-Based: Trips with trip ends somewhere other than work (home or
other places, such as tourist destinations, shopping, hospitals, etc.).
•
HOV Work-Based: High occupancy vehicle (two or more passengers) trips with
one trip end at work, such as commutes or work-related trips made during a
work day.
•
Medium Truck: Trucks with two (2) to four (4) axles.
•
Heavy Truck: Trucks with five (5) or more axles.
The majority of base-year volume crossing the Screen Line was automobile traffic, with only about
1.5% each of light and heavy trucks (Exhibit III.1.16). Non-Work-Based travel comprised about
63% of the auto trips, while Work-Based Trips comprised 33%. The Midtown Tunnel market
breakdown is very similar (Exhibit III.1.17).
December 2007
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Exhibit III.1.16: Number of Vehicles Crossing Elizabeth River Screen Line by Trip
Purpose/Vehicle Type Category (2000)
63,099
SOV Work-Based
Non-Work-Based
2,827
HOV Work-Based
2,836
Light/Med Truck
2,734
118,991
Heavy Truck
Exhibit III.1.17: Number of Vehicles Crossing the Midtown Tunnel by Trip
Purpose/Vehicle Type Category (2000)
11,730
SOV Work-Based
Non-Work-Based
665
HOV Work-Based
1,116
Light/Med Truck
473
19,015
Heavy Truck
The crossing preferences of the different Trip Purpose/Vehicle Type Categories are shown on
Exhibit III.1.18. All types of automobile trips strongly favored the Berkley Bridge. Aside from the
Berkley Bridge, Light/Medium Trucks favored the Midtown Tunnel and avoided the Campostella.
Almost no Heavy Trucks used the Campostella, preferring the Berkley Bridge and Midtown Tunnel.
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Exhibit III.1.18: Crossing Preference by Trip Purpose/Vehicle Type (2000)
Crossing Choice by Trip
Purpose/Vehicle Type Category
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
SOV Work- Non-Work- HOV Work- Light/Med
Based
Based
Based
Truck
Heavy
Truck
Trip Purpose/Vehicle Type Categories
Berkley
III.1.3
Midtown
Campostella
Present Market Summary
The Hampton Roads bridges and tunnels represent serious “bottlenecks” in the regional
transportation system because they are the sole facilities for crossing the Elizabeth River and they
require significant investments to expand. Historically, traffic has continued to grow, along with
congestion and delay, with minor relief after the construction of new facilities. Trip volumes and trip
lengths are increasing, with total VMT outpacing population and employment growth.
The over 213,000 vehicles currently using the Midtown Tunnel, the Berkley Bridge, and the
Campostella Bridge to cross the Elizabeth River each day render the facilities at or near capacity
during the busiest hours of the day. Because there are few alternate routes available to travelers,
the “rush hours” simply spill into more hours of the day. The Midtown Tunnel is especially saturated
and experiences significant congestion over much of the business day.
Most of the vehicles using the Elizabeth River facilities are automobiles being driven locally for nonwork purposes, but about 30% are also being driven for work. About 5,600 trucks (3% of total daily
traffic) use the facilities. The Medium/Light Trucks tend to prefer the Berkley Bridge or Midtown
Tunnel (in that order), while the Heavier Trucks strongly prefer the Berkley Bridge or Midtown
Tunnel.
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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III.2
FORECASTED FUTURE CONDITIONS
This section presents forecasted travel market conditions for the Elizabeth River Screen Line
crossings using the enhanced regional travel demand model for the horizon year 2030.
For the travel market analysis, the enhanced travel demand model was coded to portray a travel
market unimpeded by tolls (toll impacts are modeled in the toll feasibility analysis).
Existing roadways, regionally committed projects, and the Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project were
included in the regional transportation network, with trip ends generated by the region’s forecastyear land use projections. The proposed Hampton Roads Third Crossing project is not included in
the model network because it is not a regionally committed project in the HRPDC long-range plan.
However, because of its potential impact on the travel demand market, it is treated as a demand
“risk factor” in the toll feasibility analysis.
III.2.1
Major Trends Likely to Affect Regional Travel
Regional travel is affected by a variety of factors: Population increases or decreases, land use
changes, economic shifts, and major alterations to the transportation network.
Regional population is predicted to increase by about 330,000 between 2000 and 2026. Virginia
Beach is projected to grow the most (in terms of absolute total), while Suffolk is expected to grow
the fastest. The jurisdictions immediately surrounding the Screen Line, Portsmouth and Norfolk, are
predicted to grow little. Similarly, employment is projected to increase on par with population, most
substantially outside of the “inner loop” such as Suffolk, Virginia Beach, and Isle of Wight County. 29
The core cities of Hampton Roads are in the midst of revitalization that will increase recreational
and business travel to and from the cities, pressing Elizabeth River crossings further to capacity.
Outlying areas with undeveloped land, such as Suffolk, are likely sites of additional housing and
employment clusters, increasing through-traffic across the Elizabeth River as well.
There is already acute congestion on the major Elizabeth River crossings such that even limited
increases in population and travel will cause disproportionate increases in delay on an unimproved
transportation network.
The HRPDC and local governments are continuing to prioritize
improvement projects and have included several in recent regional long-range transportation plans.
Many of these improvement projects will not directly connect to the Travel Market Analysis Study
area, but they will all affect the future regional network to a degree. Some such regionallysignificant projects that are coded into the 2030 enhanced travel demand model include
improvements to I-64 on the Peninsula, Military Highway (Route 13), George Washington Highway
(Route 17), and Virginia Beach Boulevard (Route 58).
III.2.2
Travel Volumes
By 2030, in a future travel network that includes the completed MTCP, travel crossing the Elizabeth
River Screen Line (the Berkley, Campostella, and expanded Midtown crossing) on an average
weekday is estimated to increase by 33% over the base-year.
If this projected volume exists in the future, without additional capacity (i.e. the MTCP is not
completed), the peak period will continue to spread. A projection of this peak period spread is
shown in Exhibit III.2.1. Directional hours of congestion (at or above 80% of capacity) over the
29
Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (HRPDC), Hampton Roads 2026 Regional Transportation Plan Technical Document (June
2004), pp 9-15.
December 2007
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Screen Line might grow from about two today to seven. Both peak periods would be congested in
each direction of travel.
Exhibit III.2.1: Elizabeth River Crossing Combined Volume by Time of Day
(2000, 2006, and 2030 projected) for East/North-Bound Traffic Without the MTCP
East/North- Bound Vehicles per 15 Minutes
3,000
2,500
2,000
2000
2006
2030
Capacity
1,500
1,000
500
12
:0
1: 0 A
0 M
2: 0 A
0 M
3: 0 A
00 M
4: A
0 M
5: 0 A
00 M
6: A
0 M
7: 0 A
00 M
8: A
0 M
9: 0 A
10 00 M
: A
11 00 M
: A
12 00 M
:0 AM
1: 0 P
0 M
2: 0 P
00 M
3: P
0 M
4: 0 P
0 M
5: 0 P
00 M
6: P
0 M
7: 0 P
00 M
8: P
0 M
9: 0 P
10 00 M
: P
11 00 M
:0 PM
0
PM
0
15-Minute Interval Beginning at Clock Time
If the MTCP is completed, the total 2030 volume on the Elizabeth River crossings is projected at
258,300 trips per day, with increases on all facilities (shown in Exhibit III.2.2). The expanded
Midtown Tunnel carries twice as many vehicles in 2030 as the base-year case (70,500). The
Campostella increased 28% to 45,300 and the Berkley 13% to 138,000 daily vehicles.
Annual Average Daily Traffic (Vehicles)
Exhibit III.2.2: 2000 and 2030 Daily Vehicle Volumes for Elizabeth River Crossing Facilities
December 2007
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2000
2030
Midtown
2000 2030
2000 2030
Campostella
Berkley
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III.2.3
Travel Patterns
In 2030, about 55% of the total Screen Line crossing traffic is accounted for by seven bidirectional
SD pairs (shown in Exhibit III.2.3), chosen because they each are forecasted to comprise 5% or
more of daily traffic:
1. Norfolk Central – Chesapeake (17%)
2. Norfolk North – Chesapeake (10%)
3. Virginia Beach – Isle of Wight (7%)
4. Virginia Beach – Chesapeake (6%)
5. Virginia Beach – Suffolk (6%)
6. Norfolk East – Chesapeake (5%)
7. VA Beach – Norfolk Central (5%)
These SD pairs were also the most common SD pairs in 2000, with the addition of the Virginia
Beach – Suffolk pair. The relative rankings are projected to change slightly, with longer trips
(Virginia Beach – Isle of Wight, for example) becoming more prevalent.
The complete matrix of crossing volume traveling between all SD pairs, with the top seven SDs in
boldface, is shown in Exhibit III.2.4.
Exhibit III.2.3: Top Seven Superdistrict Pairs for Vehicles Crossing the Elizabeth River (2030)
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Chesapeake
Norfolk
North
Norfolk
Central
Norfolk
East
Portsmouth
Central
Portsmouth
South
Portsmouth
North
VA Beach
Suffolk
Isle of
Wight
Hampton
Newport
News
Upper
Peninsula
Upper Peninsula
Newport News
Hampton
Isle of Wight
Suffolk
VA Beach
Portsmouth North
Portsmouth South
Portsmouth Central
Norfolk East
Norfolk Central
Chesapeake
Norfolk North
Exhibit III.2.4: SD-to-SD Daily Crossing Vehicles Table (2030)
341
24,166
0
42,818
2,183
2,970
13,855
0
2,129
0
1,242
4,822
7,925
4,109
0
37
4,352
7,013
2,548
0
0
1,300
2,255
3,264
981
0
0
0
15,868
252
12,495
37
9,439
8,689
4,676
0
681
4,721
4,844
2,545
0
0
0
14,166
0
533
3,624
3,426
1,928
0
0
0
17,258
0
0
2,118
147
623
80
502
178
22
487
0
0
0
1,705
308
1,369
264
110
41
0
2,299
0
0
0
0
4,618
962
1,284
186
533
79
0
2,348
0
0
0
0
0
Crossing Preference
In the 2030 projections, travelers’ preferences for the Elizabeth River crossing shift, reflecting the
increase of capacity in the Midtown Tunnel, which in the base year is chronically congested.
The Berkley Bridge is still projected to carry the most vehicles in 2030, but it will only comprise
about 54% (down from 64% in 2000) of the total daily crossing traffic. The Midtown Tunnel volume
will rise to carry 28% (up from 17%) of daily traffic, and the Campostella Bridge volume will remain
constant around 18%. The crossing preferences for each of the top seven SD pairs are shown
graphically in Exhibit III.2.5.
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Exhibit III.2.5: Crossing Preference of Top Seven 2030 Elizabeth River Crossing SD Pairs
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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The expanded Midtown Tunnel is projected to carry more major SD-pair volume in 2030 than in
2000. The primary superdistrict markets for the 2030 Midtown Tunnel also will include longer trips,
in addition to the local travel between Portsmouth, Norfolk, and Chesapeake that characterized
most year 2000 vehicles. The top major superdistrict pairs, shown graphically in Exhibit III.2.6, are
projected as follows:
1. Virginia Beach - Isle of Wight (5,943 vehicles per day, 8.4% of Midtown Tunnel traffic)
2. Chesapeake - Norfolk Central (4,200 vehicles per day, 5.9% of Midtown Tunnel traffic)
3. Norfolk Central - Portsmouth Central (4,168 vehicles per day, 5.9% of Midtown Tunnel
traffic)
4. Virginia Beach - Suffolk (4,145 vehicles per day, 5.9% of Midtown Tunnel traffic)
5. Chesapeake - Norfolk North (3,900 vehicles per day, 5.5% of Midtown Tunnel traffic)
6. Norfolk Central - Portsmouth South (3,579 vehicles per day, 5.1% of Midtown Tunnel traffic)
A general geographic distribution of the 2030 Midtown Tunnel bi-directional crossing market (shown
in Exhibit III.2.7) reinforces the travel market shift projected for 2030. A third of the travel is
projected to remain primarily local. However, much more cross-regional and peninsula travel is
projected to use the Midtown Tunnel than was the case in 2000. The travel market is much more
evenly distributed throughout the region. This observation further supports the point that expansion
of the Midtown Tunnel renders the facility more appealing to future-year, longer-distance travelers
throughout the region.
Exhibit III.2.6: Top Superdistrict Pairs for Vehicles Crossing the Midtown Tunnel (2030)
December 2007
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Exhibit III.2.7: General Geographic Distribution of Midtown Tunnel Crossings (2030)
12%
29%
12%
14%
19%
14%
Local (Norfolk - Portsmouth)
West (Norfolk - Suffolk/Isle of Wight)
Cross-Regional (Virginia Beach & Suffolk/Isle of Wight)
Peninsula (Hampton/Newport News/Upper Peninsula - Southside)
South (Norfolk & Chesapeake)
Other
III.2.4
Trip Purpose
In 2030, the majority of base-year traffic crossing the Screen Line will still be traveling in
automobiles. However the proportion of trucks is projected to increase: about 2.8% of the total
traffic will be light/medium trucks and 3.2% will be heavy trucks, up from 1.5% each in 2000 (Exhibit
III.2.8). The proportion of Work-Based verses Non-Work-Based trips will remain nearly the same at
29% and 64% respectively. The Midtown Tunnel distribution is similar, except that it is projected to
carry a higher proportion of trucks than the Screen Line average (Exhibit III.2.9).
The crossing preferences of the Trip Purpose/Vehicle Type Categories are shown on Exhibit
III.2.10. All trips are still projected to favor the Berkley Bridge. However, the Midtown Tunnel will
be more popular for all types of trucks. The Campostella Bridge will be even less popular than it
was in 2000.
December 2007
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Exhibit III.2.8: Number of Vehicles Crossing Elizabeth River Screen Line by Trip
Purpose/Vehicle Type Category (2030)
SOV Work-Based
74,175
Non-Work-Based
8,155
HOV Work-Based
7,101
Light/Med Truck
161,566
2,756
Heavy Truck
Exhibit III.2.9: Number of Vehicles Crossing the Midtown Tunnel by Trip
Purpose/Vehicle Type Category (2030)
SOV Work-Based
20,440
Non-Work-Based
2,683
HOV Work-Based
Light/Med Truck
2,852
43,851
717
December 2007
Heavy Truck
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Exhibit III.2.10: Crossing Preference by Trip Purpose/Vehicle Type (2030)
Crossing Choice by Trip
Purpose/Vehicle Type Category
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
SOV Work- Non-Work- HOV Work- Light/Med
Based
Based
Based
Truck
Heavy
Truck
Trip Purpose/Vehicle Type Categories
Berkley
III.2.5
Midtown
Campostella
Projected Market Summary
In 2030, traffic is projected to increase about 33% from base-year measurements. Although the
most popular destinations are projected to remain the same, an increase in longer-distance trips is
expected. If the Midtown Tunnel parallel facility is constructed, the crossing will become a more
desirable alternative to travelers making longer trips, as well as to heavy and light/medium trucks.
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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III.3
TRAVEL MARKET SUMMARY
III.3.1
Screen Line Volumes and Crossing Preferences
A summary of the total 2000 base-year and 2030 future-year travel markets is shown in Exhibit
III.3.1 and Exhibit III.3.2. The comparative distribution of trips on the crossings is shown in Exhibit
III.3.3.
Exhibit III.3.1: 2000 Base-Year Travel Market Summary (Daily Vehicles)
SOV Work-Based
Non-Work-Based
HOV Work-Based
Light/Med Truck
Heavy Truck
Total
Midtown
Campostella Berkley
Total
11,730
12,067
39,302
63,099
19,015
22,588
77,388 118,991
473
507
1,754
2,734
1,116
87
1,633
2,836
665
29
2,133
2,827
32,999
35,277
122,210 190,487
Exhibit III.3.2: 2030 Future-Year Travel Market Summary (Daily Vehicles)
SOV Work-Based
Non-Work-Based
HOV Work-Based
Light/Med Truck
Heavy Truck
Total
Midtown
Campostella Berkley
Total
20,440
14,074
39,661
74,175
43,851
30,282
87,432 161,566
717
478
1,560
2,756
2,852
209
4,040
7,101
2,683
216
5,256
8,155
70,544
45,259
137,950 253,753
Exhibit III.3.3: Comparative Distribution of Daily Traffic on Crossings in 2000 and 2030
Percent of Daily Traffic
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2030
Model Year
Midtown
December 2007
Campostella
Berkley
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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III.3.2
Travel Market Observations
Based on this analysis, the following table summarizes key observations about the Elizabeth River
crossings travel market in general, and the Midtown Tunnel travel market specifically.
Exhibit III.3.4: Key Travel Market Observations
Travel Market
Characteristic
Observation
Regional Characteristics and Trends
Regional population is forecast to grow by 330,000
Population
between 2000 and 2026.
Regional employment is growing roughly in proportion to
Employment
population (approximately 1.75% per year).
Both vehicle miles traveled and congestion levels are
significantly outpacing population growth, although
VMT and Congestion
congestion is most concentrated at regional bottlenecks
including the Elizabeth River crossings.
Elizabeth River Crossings
All crossings experience volume growth between 2000 and
2030, and the expanded Midtown Tunnel is projected to
carry a higher proportion of total crossing volume in 2030.
Traffic Volumes
This suggests additional and ‘latent’ demand will take
advantage of the doubled Midtown Tunnel crossing
capacity resulting from the MTCP.
The primary travel market for the Midtown Tunnel is largely
local in 2000 and 2030, but the expanded facility in 2030
carries a higher volume of cross-regional trips.
Traffic Patterns
This suggests that longer-distance trips will be attracted to
the expanded Midtown Tunnel as a result the increased
capacity and subsequent reduced congestion.
The expanded Midtown Tunnel attracts nearly double the
volume of Heavy and Light/Medium trucks in 2030 as in the
2000 base year.
Trip Purpose and Vehicle Type
This suggests that the reduction in congestion makes the
Midtown Tunnel crossing more attractive to time sensitive
freight movements.
December 2007
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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SECTION IV.
December 2007
COST ASSUMPTIONS
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IV.1
INTRODUCTION
This section of the Final Report establishes a set of cost estimates associated with building,
operating and maintaining:
•
The existing Midtown Tunnel between Portsmouth and Norfolk, improved as part of the
project, the interchange at Brambleton Avenue and Hampton Boulevard in Norfolk,
improved as part of the project, and a new parallel tube to be built as part of the MCTP.
•
The MLK Freeway extension connecting I-264 and the existing MLK Freeway section, built
as part of the MTCP; and
•
The existing Downtown Tunnel, improved as part of the project.
The following categories were considered:
•
Capital Costs, defined as the initial costs of building the infrastructure, including all aspects
of planning, design, and construction. Capital cost allocations by year for the MTCP
include only the facilities and improvements made as part of the project.
•
Transaction Costs, representing the recurring cost of collecting the tolls (such as salaries
of toll collectors and ETC operations and equipment servicing).
•
Operating Costs, including lighting, ventilation, policing, and other activities/resources
required to operate the facilities, as well as administrative overhead.
•
Maintenance Costs, covering routine maintenance requirements such as renewing
pavement striping and signage, patching potholes, and making routine repairs.
•
Renewal and Replacement Costs, the periodic, planned expenses incurred to renew
and/or replace portions of the facility at the end of their useful (or ‘design’) lives. For
tunnels, bridges, and viaducts, these costs can be substantial. R&R costs for all the MTCP
project elements will be combined into a one cost stream for the purposes of financial
analysis.
In this section, all costs are identified by year with respect to the opening year of the project. The
project is assumed to open on January 1 of the opening year.
December 2007
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IV.2
CAPITAL COSTS
The schedule of construction costs distributed over the years prior to opening was prepared for the
study based on the following assumptions:
•
The project is completed over a five-year construction period.
•
Baseline values for initial construction costs are estimated at:30
•
o
$7.8 million for improvements to the existing Midtown Tunnel;
o
$4.4 million for improvements to the existing Downtown Tunnel;
o
$171.6 million for the MLK Expressway extension; and
o
$489.6 million for the new Midtown Tunnel.
‘High’ and ‘low’ capital cost estimates were established at 175 percent of baseline
estimates and 75 percent of baseline estimates, respectively.31
A summary of the baseline, high and low estimates are provided in Exhibit IV.2.1, expressed in
2007 dollars as well as year of expenditure dollars, using a 3.50 percent annual escalation factor32.
Exhibit IV.2.1: Capital Costs by Year of Expenditure in 2007 and Year of Expenditure Dollars
Project Capital Costs by Year of Expenditure (2007$)
Years Before Opening
5
4
3
2
1
Total
Low Estimate Baseline Estimate
13,100,000
17,500,000
83,800,000
111,800,000
230,300,000
307,100,000
142,900,000
190,600,000
34,800,000
46,500,000
504,900,000
673,500,000
Numbers may not add due to rounding.
High Estimate
30,600,000
195,600,000
537,400,000
333,500,000
81,300,000
1,178,400,000
Fraction of Total
2.6%
16.6%
45.6%
28.3%
6.9%
100.0%
High Estimate
35,114,000
232,311,000
660,601,000
424,305,000
107,056,000
1,459,387,000
Fraction of Total
2.4%
15.9%
45.3%
29.1%
7.3%
100.0%
Project Capital Costs by Year of Expenditure (Year of Expenditure $)
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total
Low Estimate Baseline Estimate
15,032,000
20,081,000
99,528,000
132,783,000
283,097,000
377,504,000
181,808,000
242,496,000
45,824,000
61,231,000
625,289,000
834,095,000
Escalation Factor
3.50%
30
Partridge, Raymond T. “Re: Cost questions regarding Midtown TunnelMidtown Tunnel Corridor Project Extension Project.” E-mail to
Jennifer Rasnick. 30 Apr. 2007.
31
Based on telephone discussions with VDOT during a project progress meeting on 4/24/2007.
32
Source: PRAG
December 2007
Page 51
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
IV.3
TRANSACTION COSTS
Toll transaction costs are the costs of collecting the tolls. There are two basic toll collection
technologies – electronic toll collection and manual toll collection – each with a different associated
cost.
Chapter 896 of the 2007 Acts of Assembly mandates that newly constructed or upgraded toll
facilities must be equipped to handle toll collection at highway speeds, with an allowance for cash
collection to the side. Therefore ETC is the technology of choice for this project.
There may be limited land area available to provide for manual toll collection on the facility, so nonETC equipped vehicles could be billed by mail. In this case, the toll charge could be determined
from video license plate identification, similar to the approach used in Toronto on the 407 ETR.
Travelers who pay by the manual method will be charged a service fee that recovers the collection
costs above the standard ETC approach.
Therefore, the assumed collection cost for all tolls was $0.06 (2007 dollars) plus approximately
2.2% of the toll value, per transaction. The ‘per transaction’ element of the cost was increased with
an annual cost inflation rate of 3.5%.33
33
A June 11, 2007 email from John Lawson (Director of Financial Planning Division for the Maintenance Inflation Information of Virginia
Department of Transportation) notes that VDOT budgets an annual growth of 4% in the maintenance program. Assuming this 4% growth
rate is comprised of two contributing factors – cost inflation and system growth – applying FHWA’s estimate that VDOT’s lane-mile
maintenance responsibilities have grown by 0.45% annually since 2001 results in a cost inflation rate of about 3.5%.
December 2007
Page 52
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
IV.4
OPERATING COSTS
Beyond toll transaction costs, there are other costs associated with operating the tunnels and
roadways, such as lighting, police patrols, ventilation, cleaning, and management. VDOT’s
operating cost estimates and buffered estimates (increased by 4%), are shown in Exhibit IV.4.134.
The buffered estimates were annualized and inflated to current year values using a 3.5% annual
inflation rate. The full operating cost schedule is included in Exhibit IV.4.1.
Exhibit IV.4.1: Initial Annual Operating Cost Estimates35
Base Estimate
Full Estimate
(Base+ 4% Buffer)
Midtown Tunnel / MLK Extension
$2,387,650.00
$2,483,156.00
Downtown Tunnel
$1,848,513.00
$1,922,454.00
Total
$4,236,163.00
$4,405,610.00
Facility
34
35
Original email prepared by Jose A. Hernandez on Thursday February 15, 2007 at 5:25pm.
Original email prepared by Jose A. Hernandez on Thursday February 15, 2007 at 5:25pm.
December 2007
Page 53
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit IV.4.2: Operating Cost Schedule36
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
IV.5
Operating Cost
(Current Year Dollars)
$6,004,394
$6,214,548
$6,432,057
$6,657,179
$6,890,180
$7,131,337
$7,380,934
$7,639,266
$7,906,641
$8,183,373
$8,469,791
$8,766,234
$9,073,052
$9,390,609
$9,719,280
$10,059,455
$10,411,536
$10,775,939
$11,153,097
$11,543,456
$11,947,477
$12,365,638
$12,798,436
$13,246,381
$13,710,004
$14,189,854
$14,686,499
$15,200,527
$15,732,545
$16,283,184
$16,853,096
$17,442,954
$18,053,458
Year
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
Operating Cost
(Current Year Dollars)
$18,685,329
$19,339,315
$20,016,191
$20,716,758
$21,441,844
$22,192,309
$22,969,040
$23,772,956
$24,605,010
$25,466,185
$26,357,501
$27,280,014
$28,234,814
$29,223,033
$30,245,839
$31,304,443
$32,400,099
$33,534,102
$34,707,796
$35,922,569
$37,179,859
$38,481,154
$39,827,994
$41,221,974
$42,664,743
$44,158,009
$45,703,539
$47,303,163
$48,958,774
$50,672,331
$52,445,863
$54,281,468
$56,181,319
Year
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
Operating Cost
(Current Year Dollars)
$58,147,666
$60,182,834
$62,289,233
$64,469,356
$66,725,784
$69,061,186
$71,478,328
$73,980,069
$76,569,371
$79,249,299
$82,023,025
$84,893,831
$87,865,115
$90,940,394
$94,123,308
$97,417,623
$100,827,240
$104,356,194
$108,008,660
$111,788,964
$115,701,577
$119,751,133
$123,942,422
$128,280,407
$132,770,221
$137,417,179
$142,226,780
$147,204,717
$152,356,883
$157,689,373
$163,208,502
$168,920,799
$174,833,027
MAINTENANCE COSTS
The cost of maintaining the tunnels and roadways, including routine maintenance and minor repair
activities, is shown in Exhibit IV.5.1 with actual and buffered estimates again.37 The maintenance
cost estimate for the Midtown Tunnel also includes the costs associated with the West Norfolk
Bridge38. The 4% buffer estimates were inflated to nominal year values using the 3.5% annual
inflation rate to create the full maintenance cost schedule shown in Exhibit IV.5.2.
36
Source: CRA International
Same email from Jose A. Hernandez on Thursday February 15, 2007 at 5:25pm.
38
The West Norfolk Bridge is the Western Freeway (VA-164) crossing of the Western branch of the Elizabeth River.
37
December 2007
Page 54
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit IV.5.1: Initial Annual Maintenance Cost Estimates39
Base Estimate
Full Estimate
(Base + 4% Buffer)
Midtown Tunnel / MLK Extension
$2,080,800.00
$2,164,032.00
Downtown Tunnel
$2,130,292.00
$2,215,504.00
Total
$4,211,092.00
$4,379,536.00
Facility
Exhibit IV.5.2: Maintenance Cost Schedule40
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
39
40
Maintenance Cost
(Current Year Dollars)
$5,968,858
$6,177,768
$6,393,990
$6,617,780
$6,849,402
$7,089,131
$7,337,251
$7,594,054
$7,859,846
$8,134,941
$8,419,664
$8,714,352
$9,019,354
$9,335,032
$9,661,758
$9,999,919
$10,349,916
$10,712,164
$11,087,089
$11,475,137
$11,876,767
$12,292,454
$12,722,690
$13,167,984
$13,628,864
$14,105,874
$14,599,579
$15,110,565
$15,639,434
$16,186,815
$16,753,353
$17,339,720
$17,946,611
Year
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
Maintenance Cost
(Current Year Dollars)
$18,574,742
$19,224,858
$19,897,728
$20,594,149
$21,314,944
$22,060,967
$22,833,101
$23,632,259
$24,459,388
$25,315,467
$26,201,508
$27,118,561
$28,067,711
$29,050,080
$30,066,833
$31,119,172
$32,208,343
$33,335,635
$34,502,383
$35,709,966
$36,959,815
$38,253,408
$39,592,278
$40,978,007
$42,412,238
$43,896,666
$45,433,049
$47,023,206
$48,669,018
$50,372,434
$52,135,469
$53,960,211
$55,848,818
Year
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
Maintenance Cost
(Current Year Dollars)
$57,803,527
$59,826,650
$61,920,583
$64,087,803
$66,330,876
$68,652,457
$71,055,293
$73,542,228
$76,116,206
$78,780,273
$81,537,583
$84,391,398
$87,345,097
$90,402,176
$93,566,252
$96,841,071
$100,230,508
$103,738,576
$107,369,426
$111,127,356
$115,016,813
$119,042,402
$123,208,886
$127,521,197
$131,984,439
$136,603,894
$141,385,030
$146,333,507
$151,455,179
$156,756,111
$162,242,574
$167,921,064
$173,798,302
Same email from Jose A. Hernandez on Thursday February 15, 2007 at 5:25pm.
Source: CRA International
December 2007
Page 55
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
IV.6
RENEWAL AND REPLACEMENT COSTS
Renewal and replacement costs are planned expenditures that occur cyclically at specific points
within the lifetime of system components. For the purposes of estimating R&R costs, the physical
scope of the project was interpreted as the equivalent of:
•
0.8 route-miles of new two-lane tunnel;
•
2.2 route-miles of existing two-lane tunnel;
•
2.0 route-miles of new four-lane highway on viaduct; and
•
4.2 route-miles of highway at grade or on embankment.
For each category above, specific assumptions were made as to the timing and costs of R&R
activities. The accuracy of these assumptions is at a planning level only, for the purposes of
establishing reasonable requirements for self-funding of the R&R program.
For two-lane tunnel sections, a fifty-year cycle was assumed, with the following R&R schedule
and costs:
•
$15 million per route-mile for renewal of pavement, ventilation, lighting and safety systems
in years 25 and 50; and
•
$30 million per route-mile for structural renewal in year 50.
In light of the renewal costs for the existing tubes included in the project, and renewal work
undertaken in 1988-1989, the existing tubes were assumed to be in year 29 of the fifty-year cycle in
the opening year of the project.
For four-lane viaduct sections, a sixty-year cycle was assumed, with the following R&R schedule
and costs:
•
$7.5 million per route-mile for repainting in years 15, 30, and 45;
•
$15 million per route-mile for redecking in year 30; and
•
$38 million per route-mile for reconstruction in year 60.
Short sections of existing bridge on the MLK Freeway dating from the early 1960s were assumed to
be reconstructed as part of the project, and were therefore treated as ‘like new’.
For four-lane highway sections on embankment or at grade, a sixty-year cycle was assumed,
with the following schedule and costs:
•
$500,000 per route-mile for pavement maintenance in years 15 and 45;
•
$1 million per route-mile for pavement rehabilitation in year 30; and
•
$2.8 million per route-mile for reconstruction in year 60.
All at-grade mileage was assumed to be brought to ‘like new’ status as of the opening year of the
project.
December 2007
Page 56
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Costs amounting to less than $1 million per route-mile were allocated to the single year in which
they were estimated to occur. Costs exceeding this value were distributed over three years as
follows:
•
10.5 percent to the year preceding the scheduled year;
•
67.8 percent to the scheduled year; and
•
21.7 percent to the year following the scheduled year.
Exhibit IV.6.1, below, shows the baseline, ‘high’, and ‘low’ R&R costs by years after opening in both
2007 and year of expenditure dollars (based on a 3.50 percent escalation factor). Because R&R
costs are not expected to vary as much as construction costs, the low estimate represents 85
percent of the baseline, and the high estimate was set at 140 percent of the baseline.
December 2007
Page 57
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit IV.6.1: Projected Renewal and Replacement Costs in 2007 and Year of Expenditure Dollars41
Renewal and Replacement Costs (2007$)
Years
After
Opening
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Baseline
Estimtate
100%
1,600,000
12,300,000
3,300,000
0
0
0
10,400,000
67,100,000
21,500,000
0
1,300,000
8,100,000
2,600,000
0
0
4,700,000
34,700,000
9,800,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,600,000
15,700,000
25,600,000
7,200,000
0
3,800,000
24,400,000
7,800,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,200,000
59,500,000
19,000,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10,400,000
67,100,000
21,500,000
0
2,800,000
20,400,000
5,900,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,700,000
34,700,000
9,800,000
0
0
0
3,500,000
22,400,000
7,200,000
0
3,800,000
24,400,000
589,800,000
41
Low
Estimtate
85%
1,300,000
10,400,000
2,800,000
0
0
0
8,800,000
57,100,000
18,300,000
0
1,100,000
6,900,000
2,200,000
0
0
4,000,000
29,500,000
8,300,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,300,000
13,400,000
21,800,000
6,100,000
0
3,200,000
20,700,000
6,600,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,800,000
50,600,000
16,200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8,800,000
57,100,000
18,300,000
0
2,400,000
17,300,000
5,000,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,000,000
29,500,000
8,300,000
0
0
0
2,900,000
19,000,000
6,100,000
0
3,200,000
20,700,000
501,000,000
High
Estimtate
140%
2,200,000
17,200,000
4,600,000
0
0
0
14,600,000
94,000,000
30,100,000
0
1,800,000
11,400,000
3,600,000
0
0
6,600,000
48,600,000
13,700,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,200,000
22,000,000
35,900,000
10,000,000
0
5,300,000
34,200,000
10,900,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12,900,000
83,300,000
26,700,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14,600,000
94,000,000
30,100,000
0
4,000,000
28,600,000
8,200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,600,000
48,600,000
13,700,000
0
0
0
4,900,000
31,300,000
10,000,000
0
5,300,000
34,200,000
825,900,000
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
2115
Renewal and Replacement Costs (Year of Expenditure$)
Escalation Factor
3.50%
Years
Baseline
Low
High
After
Estimtate
Estimtate
Estimtate
Opening
100%
85%
140%
14
2,590,000
2,104,000
3,561,000
15
20,607,000
17,424,000
28,816,000
16
5,722,000
4,855,000
7,976,000
17
0
0
0
18
0
0
0
19
0
0
0
20
20,694,000
17,510,000
29,051,000
21
138,188,000
117,594,000
193,587,000
22
45,827,000
39,007,000
64,158,000
23
0
0
0
24
2,968,000
2,512,000
4,110,000
25
19,142,000
16,306,000
26,941,000
26
6,359,000
5,381,000
8,805,000
27
0
0
0
28
0
0
0
29
12,746,000
10,848,000
17,898,000
30
97,396,000
82,800,000
136,410,000
31
28,469,000
24,112,000
39,799,000
32
0
0
0
33
0
0
0
34
0
0
0
35
0
0
0
36
0
0
0
37
0
0
0
38
0
0
0
39
0
0
0
40
0
0
0
41
0
0
0
42
0
0
0
43
0
0
0
44
7,269,000
5,906,000
9,995,000
45
73,827,000
63,012,000
103,452,000
46
124,594,000
106,099,000
174,723,000
47
36,268,000
30,727,000
50,373,000
48
0
0
0
49
20,505,000
17,267,000
28,599,000
50
136,272,000
115,608,000
191,004,000
51
45,087,000
38,151,000
63,006,000
52
0
0
0
53
0
0
0
54
0
0
0
55
0
0
0
56
0
0
0
57
0
0
0
58
0
0
0
59
70,027,000
59,371,000
98,191,000
60
468,746,000
398,631,000
656,245,000
61
154,923,000
132,092,000
217,707,000
62
0
0
0
63
0
0
0
64
0
0
0
65
0
0
0
66
0
0
0
67
0
0
0
68
0
0
0
69
0
0
0
70
115,573,000
97,793,000
162,247,000
71
771,769,000
656,751,000
1,081,167,000
72
255,943,000
217,849,000
358,321,000
73
0
0
0
74
35,706,000
30,605,000
51,009,000
75
269,250,000
228,335,000
377,479,000
76
80,597,000
68,302,000
112,016,000
77
0
0
0
78
0
0
0
79
0
0
0
80
0
0
0
81
0
0
0
82
0
0
0
83
0
0
0
84
0
0
0
85
0
0
0
86
0
0
0
87
0
0
0
88
0
0
0
89
100,413,000
85,458,000
141,005,000
90
767,293,000
652,309,000
1,074,652,000
91
224,284,000
189,955,000
313,540,000
92
0
0
0
93
0
0
0
94
0
0
0
95
91,918,000
76,161,000
128,685,000
96
608,866,000
516,449,000
850,781,000
97
202,557,000
171,610,000
281,329,000
98
0
0
0
99
114,519,000
96,437,000
159,724,000
100
761,070,000
645,662,000
1,066,746,000
5,937,984,000
5,040,993,000
8,313,108,000
Source of R&R Costs: IBI Group; Source of Graphic: PRAG
December 2007
Page 58
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
SECTION V. TOLL CASES
December 2007
Page 59
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
V.1
TOLL CONSIDERATIONS
The main objective of this project is to determine the feasibility of funding the MTCP projects with
tolls, which is in large part determined by the toll revenue. The following specific tolling
considerations are relevant to this project:
•
Which facilities will be tolled? Not surprisingly, determining which facilities to toll is an
important initial consideration. Tolling roadways with comparable parallel routes, for
example, may remove revenue from the tolled roadway and exacerbate traffic conditions on
the parallel routes.
Tolling the MLK in particular raises three issues:
•
o
If MLK is not tolled, users of only that segment will not be assessed a toll.
Conversely, if it is tolled, some users will be tolled at two points (i.e. at the Midtown
or Downtown Tunnel as well as the MLK).
o
Tolling at fewer points is simpler and possibly more cost-effective, but tolling at
multiple points allows a closer relationship between toll paid and distance traveled,
and increases revenue capture.
o
Local support from the City of Portsmouth could be jeopardized if MLK is tolled.
Will there be time-of-day variations? Toll rates may be constant or vary through the day
in order to control congestion and focus the impacts of tolling onto peak users of the
roadways.
For this study, the decision to use constant toll rates or to vary rates by time of day (a static
form of value pricing) involves the trade-off between the potentially higher revenue and
increased congestion management offered by value pricing, with the potential confusion
and perception of “price gouging” that may emerge with time of day tolls.
•
What will the toll rates be? Infrastructure tolls can be set to any level, from high enough
to control traffic congestion or yield a profit, to low enough to simply guarantee minimum
funding. The objective of the study at hand is to explore alternative funding arrangements
for the MTCP and determine an optimal range of toll rates for maximizing funding surpluses
and minimizing funding shortfalls. Thus, a variety of toll rates were tested, ranging from
$0.50 and $3.00, depending on the facility and the time of day.
Different types of vehicles can be tolled differently, to reflect their relative impact on the
infrastructure and traffic conditions. As is typical, this study assumed that larger vehicles
would be tolled at a higher rate, proportional to the number of axles. This approach also
makes it easier to reconcile toll receipts with axle counts.
Several toll cases were established to evaluate permutations of these considerations, as discussed
in this section. In addition to evaluating the toll approach over design conditions, a demand risk
analysis was also performed to gauge toll revenues across a range of demand scenarios.
December 2007
Page 60
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
V.2
TOLL OPTIONS
Combining the possible outcomes of the toll location and time-of-day considerations, the following
four toll concepts emerge:
1. No Toll on MLK with constant toll rates.
2. Toll on MLK with constant toll rates.
3. No Toll on MLK with time of day toll rates.
4. Toll on MLK with time of day toll rates.
In response to the toll rate consideration, five toll alternatives were established for each of the four
toll concepts, based on a range of tolling rates. Exhibit VI.2.4 and Exhibit VI.2.5 identify the rates
employed to evaluate each case.
For the concepts with tolling on the MLK Freeway, the MLK toll is set relatively low so that vehicles
would not be forced to bypass the toll collection and use local roads. With the time of day toll
concepts, the toll rates during the AM and PM peak periods (times of greatest demand) were set
highest, followed by the Mid-Day period, with the Nighttime period having the lowest toll rates, so as
to model the effects that tolling may have on congestion management efforts.
Exhibit V.2.1: Toll Alternatives for Toll Concept 1 (no toll on MLK with constant toll rates)
Toll Alternative
Midtown / Downtown Tunnel
Auto Toll Rate
(2007 $)
Toll1
Toll2
Toll3
Toll4
Toll5
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
Exhibit V.2.2: Toll Alternatives for Toll Concept 2 (toll on MLK with constant toll rate)
Toll Alternative
Toll1
Toll2
Toll3
Toll4
Toll5
December 2007
Midtown / Downtown Tunnel
Auto Toll Rate
(2007 $)
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
MLK Freeway
Auto Toll Rate
(2007 $)
$0.15
$0.25
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
Page 61
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Exhibit V.2.3: Toll Alternatives for Toll Concept 3 (no toll on MLK with time of day toll rates)
Toll Alternative
Midtown / Downtown Tunnel
Auto Toll Rate
(2007 $)
Time Period
Toll1
AM & PM
Mid-Day
Nighttime
AM & PM
Mid-Day
Nighttime
AM & PM
Mid-Day
Nighttime
AM & PM
Mid-Day
Nighttime
AM & PM
Mid-Day
Nighttime
Toll2
Toll3
Toll4
Toll5
$0.75
$0.50
$0.25
$1.25
$0.75
$0.50
$1.50
$1.25
$0.50
$2.50
$1.75
$0.75
$3.00
$2.50
$1.00
Exhibit V.2.4: Toll Alternatives for Toll Concept 4 (toll on MLK with time of day toll rates)
Toll Alternative
Toll1
Toll2
Toll3
Toll4
Toll5
December 2007
Time Period
AM & PM
Mid-Day
Nighttime
AM & PM
Mid-Day
Nighttime
AM & PM
Mid-Day
Nighttime
AM & PM
Mid-Day
Nighttime
AM & PM
Mid-Day
Nighttime
Midtown /
Downtown Tunnel
Auto Toll Rate
(2007 $)
$0.75
$0.50
$0.25
$1.25
$0.75
$0.50
$1.50
$1.25
$0.50
$2.50
$1.75
$0.75
$3.00
$2.50
$1.00
MLK Freeway
Auto Toll Rate
(2007 $)
$0.25
$0.15
$0.15
$0.50
$0.25
$0.15
$0.75
$0.50
$0.15
$1.00
$0.75
$0.25
$1.25
$1.00
$0.50
Page 62
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
For all alternatives, the medium truck toll rates were set at 1.75 times the auto toll rate, and the
heavy truck rates were set at 2.75 times the auto toll rate. These truck toll rates are based on the
concept that each axle costs 0.5 of the toll rate, and that medium trucks are an equal combination
of 3-axle and 4-axle vehicles, while heavy trucks are an equal combination of 5-axle and 6-axle
vehicles.
V.2.1
Demand Risk
In order to gauge how traffic and toll revenue would vary for different demand levels, a demand risk
analysis was performed, considering three alternate demand scenarios:
1. Low Demand –75% of the forecasted trip growth.
2. High Demand – 125% of the forecasted trip growth.
3. Hampton Roads Third Crossing Project – no change to input demand, but extensive
addition of capacity to the network.
Toll Alternative 3 of the Toll Cases 1 and 2 (constant toll levels), the options most likely to indicate
the impact of risk on the scenarios, were tested with Low and High Demand risk scenarios.
The Hampton Roads Third Crossing is a project that will add considerable capacity to the region if it
is implemented. At this time there are uncertainties concerning when, if at all, the project will be
constructed, and whether the entire project or only segments of the project will be completed. For
the demand risk analysis, the entire highway portion of the project, as represented in Alternative 9
of the Final Environmental Impact Statement,42 was assumed to be completed and open to traffic in
2025. Exhibit V.2.5 highlights the highway project and labels the toll rates assumed in the demand
risk analysis. These rates were established to maintain relatively equal cost per mile for major
harbor crossings, including the existing ones, and to generate enough income to build and maintain
the Hampton Roads Third Crossing, including the R&R costs.
42
Virginia Department of Transportation, “Hampton Roads Crossing Study Final Environmental Impact Statement”, March 2001.
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit V.2.5: Hampton Roads Third Crossing (Alternative 9) with Toll Rates43
$1.00
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
V.3
$0.75
TOLL REVENUE
The travel demand model was used to produce traffic and revenue forecasts for all toll concepts
and alternatives, with the assumption that the Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project is completed and
open to traffic in 2016. Using the gross revenue forecasts and the Transaction, Operating and
Maintenance Costs, a net revenue schedule was created as an input to the financial feasibility
analysis. Appendix B contains the 99-year revenue schedules for all toll alternatives.
43
VDOT Hampton Roads Crossing Study, Final EIS
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
SECTION VI.
December 2007
SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Page 65
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
VI.1
METHODOLOGY
Public Resources Advisory Group conducted financial analysis using the aforementioned revenue
and cost assumptions to identify the range of feasible options for tolling the MTCP. PRAG
analyzed 25 toll cases for baseline cost estimates, as listed in Exhibit VI.1.1, each under a
traditional public finance structure as well as a Public-Private Partnership framework.
Case 2c, identified as the base case44, was further tested for feasibility under high and low project
cost estimates. PRAG also considered three different Public-Private Partnership frameworks for
Case 2c, as described in Appendix C. One of these, the “Taxable Debt” scenario, is the basis for
comparison of Case 2c with the other toll cases in the main body of this Toll Feasibility Study.
Exhibit VI.1.1: Toll Cases Analyzed by PRAG45
Case
1a
Toll Scenario
Toll Alternative
No Toll on MLK with Toll 1
Constant Tolls
1b
Toll 2
1c
Toll 3
1d
Toll 4
1e
Toll 5
2a
Toll
on
MLK
with Toll 1
Constant Tolls
2b
Toll 2
2c - Base
Toll 3
Case
2d
Toll 4
2e
Toll 5
3a
No Toll on MLK with Toll 1
Time of Day Tolls
3b
Toll 2
3c
Toll 3
3d
Toll 4
3e
Toll 5
44
45
4a
Toll on MLK with Time of Toll 1
Day Tolls
4b
Toll 2
4c
Toll 3
4d
Toll 4
Toll Rates*
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$0.50, $0.15 on MLK
$0.75, $0.25 on MLK
$1.00, $0.50 on MLK
$1.50, $0.75 on MLK
$2.00, $1.00 on MLK
$0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25
(NT)
$1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
$1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
$2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT)
$3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
$0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25
(NT);
MLK: $0.25 (AM, PM), $0.15 (MD),
$0.15 (NT)
$1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
;
MLK: $0.50 (AM, PM), $0.25 (MD),
$0.15 (NT)
$1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
;
MLK: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD),
$0.15 (NT)
$2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT)
;
Use of the term ‘base case’ does not imply preferential treatment or a recommendation of the Toll Case 2c.
Source: PRAG
December 2007
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IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Case
Toll Scenario
4e
Toll Alternative
Toll 5
5a
Demand Risk with No High (125% of
Tolls on MLK
Demand Growth)
Low
(75%
of
Demand Growth)
Demand Risk with Tolls High (125% of
on MLK
Demand Growth)
Low
(75%
of
Demand Growth)
Hampton Roads Third Hampton Roads
Crossing with Tolls on Third Crossing
MLK
5b
5c
5d
5e
Toll Rates*
MLK: $1.00 (AM, PM), $0.75
$0.25 (NT)
(MD),
$3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
;
MLK: $1.25 (AM, PM), $1.00 (MD),
$0.50 (NT)
$1.00
$1.00
$1.00, $0.50 on MLK
$1.00, $0.50 on MLK
$1.00, $0.50 on MLK
* In all toll alternatives, medium trucks have a toll rate 1.75 times the auto toll & heavy trucks have a toll rate 2.75 times
the auto toll rate.
PRAG employed a detailed set of financing assumptions to the toll cases for each type of funding
structure, as described in Appendix C.
VI.2
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS RESULTS SUMMARY
Detailed results of the financial analyses for the publicly and PPP financed toll concepts are
provided in Appendix C and summarized in Exhibit VI.2.1 and Exhibit VI.2.2, respectively.
Highlights from the analyses include details regarding:
December 2007
•
Funding Structure: The base-case scenario yields a funding shortfall with both funding
structures. The shortfall for the publicly funded option was estimated to be 16% less than
the taxable PPP option ($155 versus $183 million). Other PPP options were analyzed such
as financing with PABs and TIFIA as well as Bank Debt. The PABs and TIFIA financing
showed a shortfall of $102 million while the Bank Debt was a shortfall of $185 million.
•
Construction Cost and R&R Expense Volatility: The base-case scenario may prove
feasible if the costs and expenses run lower than the base estimate; on the other hand, the
base-case may prove to be seriously inadequate if construction costs run higher.
•
Toll Rates: For baseline levels of demand and project costs, the toll alternatives with toll
rates higher than the base case ($1.00 toll in the tunnels) yielded a funding surplus while
those with lower toll rates resulted in larger shortfalls than the base case. Tolling of the
MLK and time-of-day toll schedules both yield higher net revenues. Moreover, scenarios
with higher tolling rates allow for faster debt service coverage and more robust funding
surplus pools.
•
Risk Analysis: At the ‘high’ level of demand considered, the baseline tolls on the tunnels
alone will not be sufficient to fund the project; with the addition of tolls on the MLK, ($1.00,
$0.50) the baseline levels would be sufficient. With the ‘low’ level of demand, toll rates
would need to be increased above the baseline levels. The construction of the Hampton
Roads Third Crossing project does not appear to pose a significant financial risk to the
Page 67
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
MTCP funding under the conditions assumed (i.e. that existing crossings of Hampton
Roads could be tolled). Although the new crossing would present an alternative to the
MTCP for some trips, it also opens up additional opportunities for travel through the MTCP.
December 2007
Page 68
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit VI.2.1: Summary of Cases – Public Finance Tax-Exempt Toll Revenue Bonds (Source: PRAG)
Case
Senior
Bonds
Description
Subordinate
Bonds
Funding Withdrawal of PV Withdrawal of
(Shortfall)/ Revenue Surplus Revenue Surplus
Surplus
Over 50 Years
Over 50 Years
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
1a
Toll Alternative 1: ($0.50)
212,235,213
0
(571,711,492)
549,499,285
43,069,064
1b
Toll Alternative 2: ($0.75)
381,013,262
122,050,184
(359,094,261)
1,068,836,765
56,841,369
1c
Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00)
523,584,952
167,531,738
(218,260,892)
1,706,028,019
106,338,405
1d
Toll Alternative 4: ($1.50)
752,088,175
240,265,497
9,365,140
2,785,234,294
182,504,036
1e
Toll Alternative 5: ($2.00)
881,711,325
281,334,348
140,612,132
3,449,434,592
226,232,733
50,475,399
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2a
Toll Alternative 1: ($0.50, $0.15 on MLK)
235,305,377
6,421,238
(550,179,496)
631,849,196
2b
Toll Alternative 2: ($0.75, $0.25 on MLK)
423,844,288
148,269,710
(309,130,461)
1,228,852,427
56,985,689
2c
BASE CASE: Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
584,459,986
187,018,793
(155,952,700)
1,952,219,896
122,787,216
2d
Toll Alternative 4: ($1.50, $0.75 on MLK)
810,519,638
258,980,521
70,269,151
3,025,662,632
197,217,277
2e
Toll Alternative 5: ($2.00, $1.00 on MLK)
935,819,054
298,674,705
197,527,317
3,673,177,678
238,996,324
No Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
3a Toll Alternative 1: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
3b Toll Alternative 2: $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
3c
Toll Alternative 3: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
3d Toll Alternative 4: $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT)
3e Toll Alternative 5: $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
213,868,168
444,757,202
606,412,176
833,519,266
947,123,049
0
142,371,804
193,846,927
266,013,516
301,923,498
(568,865,113)
(295,734,236)
(135,210,722)
92,554,453
208,918,783
598,311,285
1,356,013,409
2,100,680,593
3,208,835,706
3,819,286,824
45,722,631
78,682,525
134,336,264
210,380,918
249,355,467
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
4a Toll Alternative 1: $0.75(AM, PM), $0.50(MD), $0.25(NT); MLK: $0.25(AM, PM), $0.15(MD), $0.15(NT)
4b Toll Alternative 2: $1.25(AM, PM), $0.75(MD), $0.50(NT); MLK: $0.50(AM, PM), $0.25(MD), $0.15(NT)
4c
Toll Alternative 3: $1.50(AM, PM), $1.25(MD), $0.50(NT); MLK: $0.75(AM, PM), $0.50(MD), $0.15(NT)
4d Toll Alternative 4: $2.50(AM, PM), $1.75(MD), $0.75(NT); MLK: $1.00(AM, PM), $0.75(MD), $0.25(NT)
4e Toll Alternative 5: $3.00(AM, PM), $2.50(MD), $1.00(NT); MLK: $1.25(AM, PM), $1.00(MD), $0.50(NT)
254,465,309
464,887,724
643,851,342
820,360,571
940,373,941
6,927,158
148,424,645
205,473,990
260,744,936
298,727,704
(535,534,859)
(271,140,691)
(91,010,251)
98,006,489
221,307,751
738,447,433
1,524,084,797
2,338,023,700
3,407,658,828
4,039,902,492
59,178,657
88,381,412
146,437,250
211,986,943
252,618,020
119,193,132
Demand Risk Scenarios
5a
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll)
571,303,670
182,773,830
(168,099,259)
1,910,874,921
5b
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll)
474,638,347
152,004,861
(264,883,548)
1,462,431,001
86,999,146
5c
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
641,483,395
205,205,357
(99,279,622)
2,205,912,451
141,148,495
5d
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
528,001,577
169,066,632
(212,666,946)
1,684,286,847
103,864,748
5e
Hampton Roads Third Crossing ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
615,924,120
196,695,939
(120,699,221)
2,176,092,617
136,113,295
187,018,793
26,330,244
2,029,141,700
131,406,944
187,018,793
(701,830,927)
1,752,215,548
98,614,251
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Low Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2c
Low Estimate. Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
584,459,986
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; High Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2c
High Estimate. Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
December 2007
584,459,986
Page 69
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit VI.2.2: Summary of Cases – Public Private Finance (Source: PRAG)
Case
Senior
Bonds
Description
Subordinate
Equity
Bonds Contribution*
Funding
Withdrawal of PV Withdrawal of
(Shortfall)/ Revenue Surplus Revenue Surplus
Surplus
Over 50 Years
Over 50 Years
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
1a
Toll Alternative 1: ($0.50)
189,740,778
0
20,250,000 (575,532,016)
549,315,209
1b
Toll Alternative 2: ($0.75)
338,878,361
109,047,036
21,790,000 (394,218,172)
1,067,240,721
42,909,088
56,361,759
1c
Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00)
464,330,141
149,216,407
45,600,000 (251,390,863)
1,703,310,117
105,544,290
1d
Toll Alternative 4: ($1.50)
664,361,418
213,182,949
77,550,000
(27,152,328)
2,779,917,287
181,205,747
1e
Toll Alternative 5: ($2.00)
776,651,880
248,952,206
94,800,000
100,851,007
3,441,855,384
224,591,664
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2a
Toll Alternative 1: ($0.50, $0.15 on MLK)
210,366,601
5,772,969
23,850,000 (553,704,789)
631,704,800
50,303,820
2b
Toll Alternative 2: ($0.75, $0.25 on MLK)
376,590,229
121,194,474
28,050,000 (353,434,553)
1,227,025,683
69,707,188
107,797,005
2c
BASE CASE: Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK) - Taxable Debt
519,584,717
193,002,586
45,100,000 (183,763,636)
1,861,072,206
2c
BASE CASE: Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK) - PABs & TIFIA
556,177,258
256,140,603
35,050,000 (102,248,316)
1,763,008,684
89,601,748
2c
2d
2e
BASE CASE: Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK) - Bank Debt
Toll Alternative 4: ($1.50, $0.75 on MLK)
Toll Alternative 5: ($2.00, $1.00 on MLK)
476,516,000
717,466,410
826,193,211
69,951,400
258,342,557
298,341,121
47,506,532 (184,700,000)
70,100,000
43,209,039
85,100,000 169,981,897
2,291,081,019
2,884,438,609
3,497,063,679
131,128,216
172,000,797
210,350,850
No Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
3a
Toll Alternative 1: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
190,196,705
3b
Toll Alternative 2: $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
394,825,392
3c
Toll Alternative 3: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
536,616,877
3d
Toll Alternative 4: $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT)
734,609,640
3e
Toll Alternative 5: $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
832,299,757
0
126,940,397
172,324,616
235,508,629
266,516,286
21,040,000 (572,340,378)
31,600,000 (330,858,672)
57,400,000 (169,422,990)
88,500,000
54,013,895
103,500,000 167,125,405
597,353,384
1,353,671,185
2,096,921,714
3,201,804,630
3,810,160,917
45,435,943
78,076,324
133,346,167
208,843,993
247,463,836
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Toll Alternative 1: $0.75(AM,PM),$0.50(MD),$0.25(NT);MLK:$0.25(AM,PM),$0.15(MD),$0.15(NT)
4a
4b
Toll Alternative 2: $1.25(AM,PM),$0.75(MD),$0.50(NT);MLK:$0.50(AM,PM),$0.25(MD),$0.15(NT)
4c
Toll Alternative 3: $1.50(AM,PM),$1.25(MD),$0.50(NT);MLK:$0.75(AM,PM),$0.50(MD),$0.15(NT)
4d
Toll Alternative 4: $2.50(AM,PM),$1.75(MD),$0.75(NT);MLK:$1.00(AM,PM),$0.75(MD),$0.25(NT)
227,445,177
410,087,268
568,564,762
718,262,368
6,209,774
131,532,448
210,614,619
264,996,780
28,600,000 (536,552,834)
34,800,000 (307,074,132)
53,000,000 (119,012,894)
75,300,000
67,805,744
727,900,188
1,521,345,814
2,229,792,073
3,250,388,407
59,984,423
87,402,345
129,241,159
189,442,500
4e
822,642,309
303,338,355
89,500,000
3,859,446,989
226,544,001
104,402,967
Toll Alternative 5: $3.00(AM,PM),$2.50(MD),$1.00(NT);MLK:$1.25(AM,PM),$1.00(MD),$0.50(NT)
189,341,146
Demand Risk Scenarios
5a
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll)
507,519,413
188,463,167
43,400,000 (196,025,372)
1,821,203,722
5b
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll)
422,704,297
157,132,405
30,300,000 (293,650,036)
1,391,926,200
74,556,654
5c
5d
5e
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
Hampton Roads Third Crossing ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
569,922,871
470,222,140
544,828,482
211,631,979
174,785,338
201,948,823
52,400,000 (126,948,143)
37,600,000 (240,768,456)
49,350,000 (148,749,263)
2,104,267,437
1,603,172,839
2,074,757,127
124,768,823
90,322,713
119,841,901
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Low Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2c
Low Estimate. Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
519,584,717
193,002,586
49,150,000
1,936,352,734
116,678,800
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; High Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2c
High Estimate. Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
519,584,717
193,002,586
17,850,000 (756,891,863)
1,749,312,728
71,419,892
2,569,308
* Equity Contribution is determined to be the amount that would yield a pre-tax rate of return of 12.00 percent.
December 2007
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
SECTION VII.
December 2007
CONCLUSION
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
VII.1.1 Methodology
A direct assessment of MTCP toll funding feasibility can be made using the funding shortfall and
surplus estimates provided in PRAG’s financial analyses. In economic terms, the surplus/shortfall
values represent the difference between total sources and uses of funds. These values take into
account all expenditures and income, as well as the timing and financing methods of all financial
activity.
A value greater than zero (‘surplus’) indicates that financing methods meet or exceed expenditures
and that a particular scenario is financially feasible under the stated assumptions. Likewise, a
value less than zero (‘shortfall’) indicates that financing methods do not cover expenditures and that
a particular scenario will not be financially feasible without altering its assumed characteristics.
VII.1.2 Feasibility
Conclusions regarding feasibility of the various tolling alternatives can be made by evaluating their
relative funding surpluses/shortfalls with respect to alternative tolling rates.
First, Exhibit VI.2.3 illustrates the relationships between estimated funding shortfalls/surpluses and
peak-hour alternative toll rates for:
•
Toll Case 1 (No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; with Baseline Estimates of Costs and
Revenue);
•
Toll Case 246 (Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; with Baseline Estimates of Costs and
Revenue); and
•
Toll Case 3 (No Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; with Baseline Estimates of Costs and
Revenue).
Each case is also shown for both the PPP and Traditional Public financing models. The following
conclusions regarding tolling rates can be drawn from this analysis:
•
All six of the scenarios shown ‘break even’ (i.e. are estimated to be feasible) for base peakhour tunnel toll rates somewhere between $1.00 and $1.25.
•
If the tolls are set too low, the funding shortfall will be significant, irrespective of the
financing model and particularities of the tolling plan. This is, in part, due to the fact that
the actual collection of the tolls requires a minimum level of resources.
•
Time of Day tolling results in a lower ‘break even’ base toll as well as both a faster growing
and higher surplus. This represents a higher ‘willingness to pay’ among travelers under
congested conditions.
•
In general, the difference between the financing models is small, with a slightly lower ‘break
even’ point and higher surplus indicated for traditional public financing versus the taxable
debt public-private financing option. The analysis assumes toll increases in line with
Consumer Price Index (CPI) at a rate of 2.5% annually. There may be other advantages or
disadvantages to these models that could assume a higher importance than this differential.
46
Note that PRAG considered three different Public-Private Partnership frameworks for Toll Case 2c, as described in Appendix C. One of
these, the “Taxable Debt” scenario, is the basis for comparison of Case 2c with the other toll cases in the main body of this Toll Feasibility
Study.
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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•
As noted in the previous section, the project will require higher tolls to ‘break even’ if the
MLK extension is not separately tolled.
Millions
Funding (Shortfall)/Surplus
Exhibit VI.2.3: Funding (Shortfall)/Surplus versus Peak Period Toll Rate Alternatives for
Several Toll Cases
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
($100)
($200)
($300)
($400)
($500)
($600)
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
Peak Period T oll Rate
TP (tod tolls & MLK)
TP (constant tolls & no MLK)
TP (constant tolls & MLK)
PPP (tod tolls & MLK)
PPP (constant tolls & no MLK)
PPP (constant tolls & MLK)
Second, Exhibit VI.2.4 and Exhibit VI.2.5 show comparisons of Toll Case 247 (Toll on MLK with
Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Costs) with Demand Risk and High/Low Cost Scenarios for
PPP and Traditional Public Funding, respectively. All scenarios shown assume tolls on MLK, which
would yield both the lowest toll on the tunnels and a closer relationship between tolls paid and miles
traveled.
47
Note that PRAG considered three different Public-Private Partnership frameworks for Case 2c, as described in Appendix C. One of these,
the “Taxable Debt” scenario, is the basis for comparison of Case 2c with the other toll cases in the main body of this Toll Feasibility Study.
December 2007
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Funding (Shortfall)/Surplus
Millions
Exhibit VI.2.4: Comparison of Base Toll Case with Demand Risk and Cost Variations for the
PPP48 Funding Model
$600
TP (constant tolls &
M LK)
$400
$200
Low Costs
High Demand
$0
Low Demand
($200)
($400)
High Costs
($600)
($800)
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
M idtown T oll Rate
Millions
Funding (Shortfall)/Surplus
Exhibit VI.2.5: Comparison of Base Toll Case with Demand Risk and Cost Variations for
Traditional Public (TP) Funding Model
$600
PPP (constant tolls &
M LK)
$400
$200
Low Costs
High Demand
$0
Low Demand
($200)
($400)
($600)
($800)
$0.50
High Costs
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
M idtown T oll Rate
48
Note that PRAG considered three different Public-Private Partnership frameworks for Case 2c, as described in Appendix C. One of these,
December 2007
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Several additional conclusions can be drawn from these diagrams, including:
•
Under both funding models, if construction costs are lower than estimated or there is a
higher demand for the facility, the project may ‘break even’ or yield a surplus with a $1.00
base tunnel toll.
•
Toll Case 249 (constant tolls on Midtown and MLK) can yield the same funding surplus as
the low cost and high demand cases, by setting a base toll rate in the $1.15 to $1.40 range.
Likewise, reducing the toll rate on Toll Case 2 yields a funding deficit similar to that of the
low demand scenario. These observations imply that a relatively minor 15-30% higher toll
rate can help accelerate funding on the facility as well as cushion it against less favorable
revenue scenarios.
Based on the assumptions and analysis employed throughout this study, the following conclusions
can be made regarding toll feasibility:
•
A toll rate between $1.00 and $1.50 on the Midtown/Downtown Tunnel, increased for
inflation over time, can reasonably provide adequate ‘break even’ funding for the project
under several likely demand and cost scenarios, including provisions for long-term renewal
and replacement.
•
Tolling the MLK in addition to the Midtown/Downtown Tunnel improves the financial
feasibility of the project. If the MLK is not tolled, the Midtown/Downtown Tunnel would have
to be tolled at least 30% higher than it would be otherwise.
•
Time of Day tolling also helps improve the financial feasibility of the project.
the “Taxable Debt” scenario, is the basis for comparison of Case 2c with the other toll cases in the main body of this Toll Feasibility Study.
49
Note that PRAG considered three different Public-Private Partnership frameworks for Case 2c, as described in Appendix C. One of these,
the “Taxable Debt” scenario, is the basis for comparison of Case 2c with the other toll cases in the main body of this Toll Feasibility Study.
December 2007
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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APPENDIX A
TRAFFIC MODEL ENHANCEMENTS
December 2007
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Introduction
This chapter describes the enhancements made to the Hampton Roads regional travel demand
model system to develop traffic and revenue projections for the MTCP in this study.
The specifics of the model system implementation are particularly important since many toll road
traffic and revenue forecasts have been plagued by substantial forecasting error. Based upon his
review of 16 projects, Robert H. Muller claims that on average, projects miss their forecasted
revenues by 35-40% in the third year.50 His study provides common causes for meeting or failing to
meet forecasts. He found that projects where traffic met projections offered at least 5 minutes of
time savings, served a higher income level, and the traffic was forecasted to grow at less than 5%
annually. Conversely, he found projects that over-forecasted traffic suffered from expansion of
competing freeways, tolls that were too high relative to the income base (corresponding to
overstatement of the value of time), overestimation of land use growth, and improper handling of
usage patterns (peak periods, directionality, vehicle classes, etc.).
While a detailed investment-grade traffic and revenue study is beyond the scope of this study, we
applied the available tool, the regional transportation model, in the most appropriate manner to
avoid the kinds of forecasting errors noted above. The traffic and revenue forecasts serve as a key
input into the financial analysis of the Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project and the feasibility of
developing this project using toll financing. Although this assessment will not be used to secure
project financing, it is intended to inform decision makers concerning how to proceed with the
development of the Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project.
We enhanced the Hampton Roads travel demand forecasting model to generate the travel demand
forecasts for this study. The Hampton Roads model is a traditional four-step travel demand model
that is implemented in the TP+ software package. Other features of the unadjusted model includes
an extensive Traffic Analysis Zone structure (1480 TAZ), three trip purposes (Home Based Work,
Home Based Other, and Non-Home Based), HOV/SOV distinction, and a full daily traffic
assignment. The model system has been employed in many transportation studies in the region.
There are a number of challenges that we confronted when applying this regional model for a toll
road study:
•
Limited Toll Road Observations - The model system was developed and calibrated with
limited toll facility observations. The only toll facilities in the model are the Jordan
Bridge, the Coleman Bridge, and the Chesapeake Expressway. Additionally, the
Coleman Bridge and Chesapeake Expressway are both at the edges of the model
network, limiting the route selection element of the model. Also, the Chesapeake
Expressway is a primary route used by vacationers traveling to the Outer Banks of
North Carolina, meaning that its travelers likely have different toll responses than the
potential users of the toll facilities we are studying, particularly with respect to their
values of time.
•
Uniform Value of Time - Another limitation of the model system is that the generalized
travel cost function used for converting different components of travel disutility into
commensurate units is the same regardless of trip purpose. This implies that all
travelers value their time the same, regardless of the trip purpose or income.
50
Muller, Robert H. “Tollroad Feasibility Studies: An Historical Perspective.” Presented at the 2001 Transportation Research Board Annual
Meeting, 2001.
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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•
Daily Highway Assignment – Typically, it is during the morning and evening peak
periods that toll facilities offer the largest travel time-savings and are most attractive, but
the daily assignment blends the peak and off-peak periods together.
•
No explicit Truck Traffic - Truck traffic is not explicitly included in the model, but rather is
blended with passenger vehicles. Trucks are presumably one of the intended target
segments of the proposed toll project, and not explicitly including them may limit the
model system’s ability to forecast traffic and revenue.
To counter the above limitations and improve its forecasting of toll traffic and revenue, we
implemented a number of enhancements to the Hampton Roads model. We preserved trip purpose
information through highway assignment, allowing us to use different values of time (VOTs, the
monetary equivalent of one unit of travel time) to correspond to each purpose. We also included
medium and heavy trucks as specific vehicle classes. We segmented heavy truck and work trips
into four separate groups with different VOTs to better reflect differences of how these trips respond
to tolls. Instead of continuing with a daily highway assignment, we implemented a time of day
assignment with four time periods (AM, PM, mid-day, and nighttime) to allow toll decisions to vary
with congestion levels throughout the day. To reflect congested travel conditions in the long-term
transportation decisions of travelers, we developed a feedback loop that input congested travel
times into the trip distribution step.
The following sections provide details on these enhancements and describe the validation of the
enhanced model.
Model Enhancements
Trip Distribution Adjustment
In addition to impacting traveler’s route choices, the introduction of new tolls may also affect trip
patterns. For example, tolling the Midtown and Downtown Tunnels may cause some workers to
evaluate employment choices differently if they require crossing the Elizabeth River; the effect on
personal business or shopping trips may be more pronounced. The HRPDC model develops trip
patterns with a gravity model in the trip distribution step. The gravity model estimates the number
of trips from an origin to a destination with the logic that, other things equal, the number of trips
from one location to another increases with the trip-making activity at either end and decreases with
the impedance or difficulty of travel between them. The unadjusted model uses travel time as the
impedance component of the gravity model. To better reflect the impact of new tolls on the travel
patterns of the region, we added toll costs to the impedance, converting the cost to time using a
VOT of $10.10 in 2000 dollars; this represents an average VOT for the region.
Development of Truck Trips
Due to the major presence of ports in the Hampton Roads region generally, and near the Midtown
and Downtown Tunnels in particular, heavy vehicle trips are an important travel segment of
potential toll facility users, although one that was not separately considered previously in the
HRPDC travel demand model. We therefore implemented a method for synthesizing heavy vehicle
trips to input into the travel demand forecasting model. Our approach created separate truck trip
tables of origin to destination flows for medium and heavy (5 axles or greater) vehicles by applying
an origin-destination matrix estimation technique. This approach produced truck trip tables used to
improve the regional forecasting model.
We used information from several data sources in the matrix estimation process. Specifically, we
used historical port truck movements between the major external gateways, traffic counts by vehicle
December 2007
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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type obtained from VDOT, and US DOT Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) data in our
methodology.
The matrix estimation required three inputs: a highway network, traffic observations for a number of
locations, and a seed matrix. To streamline the matrix estimation process and improve
computation time, we used a simplified version of the HRPDC highway network. This network
included only links for freeways, expressways, and major arterials. We also vastly reduced the
number of TAZs, with TAZ used for this study representing the ports, gateway externals, and model
districts (groupings of zones). We obtained traffic count data with vehicle classification and time-ofday information from VDOT that we used as the traffic observation input. Exhibit A-1 displays the
locations of the gateway and additional count locations, as well as three major ports of the Hampton
Roads region.
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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Exhibit A-1: Ports and gateways for the freight trip tables
Applying the OD Matrix Estimation component of the TransCAD transportation modeling software to
this simplified network and zone system, we estimated truck trip tables for medium and heavy
trucks during the AM, PM, mid-day, and nighttime periods. We then disaggregated the output trip
tables to the 1480 by 1480 TAZ format required by the HRPDC model. To do this, we distributed
the trips from each district to its TAZ based upon the relative magnitude of each TAZ’s Non Home
Based (NHB) trips to the district’s total NHB trips.
The FAF is a database of freight information compiled and maintained by the Federal Highway
Administration. The new version of the database contains an estimate for 2002 freight traffic along
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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with forecasted freight flows through 2035. The database also includes information that defines the
freight mode. We obtained FAF data for the Virginia Beach/HRPDC region51 which we used to
cross-check the flows originating and leaving the region, and to forecast the growth of future truck
traffic. The FAF forecasts truck traffic for the region to increase by a compound annual average
growth rate of 2.8% through 2030, and we used this rate to grow the truck trip tables for future
years.
As noted earlier, the original HRPDC model did not explicitly include truck trips. Since we now
included them, we needed to offset these newly created trips by reducing other trips, and thus we
factored down NHB trips to offset the addition of truck trips.
Forecasted Trip Types
To improve the modeling of toll behavior, we adjusted the trip types used in highway assignment.
The unadjusted HRPDC model considers only SOV and HOV trips in highway assignment, but we
wanted to represent different trip types and their associated VOT. Accordingly, we input trip
purpose information into highway assignment and further disaggregated some trip purposes by
income levels to better reflect their response to tolls.
For autos, we included work and non-work purposes, and also maintained HOV trips separately.
We defined the work purpose as home based “hbwork” trips plus 30% of the non home “nhbased”
purpose. We defined the “non-nwork” purpose as all home based “hbother” trips plus 70% of the
non home “nhbased” trips. For heavy vehicles, we included medium and heavy truck categories.
To represent a distribution of travelers’ VOT, we disaggregated work trips and heavy truck trips into
four groups and used an appropriate VOT for each group. We developed the Work purpose
income distribution through a three-step approach. First, we identified the income distribution of
households according to Census 2000 data at the county level. Second, we converted the
household income distribution to a distribution of trips by income for each county by applying
income-level specific trip rates derived from census “journeycj” to work data. Third, we applied the
county-level distribution of trips by income to the TAZs in the county.
This three-step method resulted in the following distribution of model year 2000 trips (income
ranges in 2000 dollars):
•
Income Group 1 (≤ $24,999) = 17.8% of trips
•
Income Group 2 ($25,000 - $49,999) = 28.0% of trips
•
Income Group 3 ($50,000 - $74,999) = 26.9% of trips
•
Income Group 4 (≥ $75,000) = 27.3% of trips
We also defined four groups of heavy trucks (5+ axles) by evenly dividing those trips into four
quartile groups with increasing VOTs.
Highway Assignment Refinement
Highway assignment is the process where an automobile trip table is loaded onto the highway
network in a way that respects the user equilibrium principle that no traveler acting alone has an
51
During our collection of this data set, we discovered that maritime freight flows to/from the Hampton Roads region were incorrectly
assigned by the FAF to an inland region of Virginia. We brought this mistake to the attention of FHWA, and it will be corrected for the next
FAF release.
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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incentive to change the path that he or she is traveling on. To better reflect travel conditions
confronting travelers and their travel decisions, we introduced a few notable changes to the original
HRPDC model’s highway assignment. These changes include adjustments to handle assignment
by trip purpose and by time of day, and a refinement of the generalized cost equation.
As discussed above, the original HRPDC model only differentiated between SOV and HOV,
highway trips but we adjusted the model to include multiple trip types into highway assignment.
Specifically, we input four income groups of “workw” trips, “non-nwork” trips, HOV trips, medium
truck trips, and four quartiles of heavy truck trips into highway assignment.
Time of Day Assignment
In order to reflect a better representation of travel conditions throughout the day and thus of
congestion’s impact on toll decisions, we converted the daily highway assignment to a time of day
approach with separate assignments for the AM, PM, mid-day, and nighttime time periods. To
support time of day assignment, we prepared trip tables and highway networks for each time
period.
We developed trip tables for each time period by allocating the daily trips of the travel demand
model into four time periods through a two-step process. The first step of the process was to define
the time periods based on traffic levels throughout the day. The second step was to allocate model
trips to each time period. To serve as the basis of the first step, we obtained traffic data for almost
twenty continuous count stations throughout the region from VDOT. These count stations included
vehicle traffic levels in 15-minute increments. Exhibit A-2 displays the distribution of the combined
traffic of the count locations through the day in 15-minute increments for a typical weekday,
Tuesday, March 21, 2007.
Exhibit A-2: Distribution of Traffic by Time of Day
15 min Traffic Share (% of daily volume)
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
10
:0
0
AM
11
:0
0
AM
12
:0
0
PM
1:
00
PM
2:
00
PM
3:
00
PM
4:
00
PM
5:
00
PM
6:
00
PM
7:
00
PM
8:
00
PM
9:
00
PM
10
:0
0
PM
11
:0
0
PM
AM
AM
9:
00
AM
8:
00
7:
00
AM
AM
6:
00
5:
00
AM
AM
4:
00
AM
3:
00
AM
2:
00
1:
00
12
:0
0
AM
0.00%
Time of Day
Source: VDOT traffic count data, CRA International analysis, 2007
Based on our analysis of the traffic distribution through the day, we defined four time periods as:
1. AM Peak Period: 6:00 a.m. – 8:30 a.m. with 16.5% of daily traffic
2. PM Peak Period: 3:30 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. with 19.2% of daily traffic
3. Mid-day Period: 8:30 a.m. – 3:30 p.m. with 38% of daily traffic
December 2007
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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4. Nighttime Period: 6 p.m. – 6:00 a.m. with 26.3% of daily traffic
After defining the time periods to use for assignment, we completed the second step of allocating
the model’s daily trips into each time period. To do this, we utilized 1994 data from a Hampton
Roads region home interview survey published in 199652. The survey data contained information on
trip purpose, departure time, and direction of travel (i.e., whether traveling to work or returning from
work). We processed the survey data and identified the trip factors presented in Exhibit A-3 for
each of our model time periods.
Trip
Factor
AM
PM
Mid-day
Nighttime
Daily
Trip
Factor
AM
PM
Mid-day
Nighttime
Daily
Exhibit A-3: Trip Factors by Time of Day
Home-Based Work
Home-Based Work (Complex
(Simple Commute)
Commute)
Home-Based Other (Non
Commute)
Attraction
Production
Attraction
Production
Attraction
Production
0.6%
25.6%
10.2%
12.1%
48.4%
30.8%
1.4%
11.8%
7.6%
51.6%
2.8%
18.7%
6.7%
13.2%
41.4%
36.7%
3.3%
10.6%
8.1%
58.6%
1.4%
8.8%
20.6%
18.8%
49.5%
10.2%
9.2%
17.2%
13.8%
50.5%
Home-Based Other (Complex
Commute)
Attraction
Production
Non HomeBased
(Complex
Commute)
1.0%
22.7%
10.4%
20.8%
54.9%
25.8%
2.0%
13.0%
4.2%
45.1%
20.8%
32.3%
34.3%
12.7%
100.0%
Non HomeBased (Non
Commute)
External
4.2%
11.6%
60.5%
23.7%
100.0%
14.4%
19.4%
39.8%
26.4%
100.0%
Source: Fitzgerald and Haliday, COMSIS, CRA International analysis, 2007
We developed a highway network for each time period to correspond to the trip tables. This
required adjusting the daily assignment capacities to an appropriate level for each time period.
Representing the appropriate level of capacity provided by the Hampton Roads HOV system was
an important feature of the time of day network preparation. The Hampton Roads HOV area
contains an extensive system of HOV lanes. Some lanes are barrier-separated and reversible,
while other lanes are marked exclusively for HOV use during portions of the day. In some sections
of highways with HOV, travel on the shoulders is permitted during the time of HOV exclusive use.
We referred to details on the Hampton Roads HOV system,53 and reflected the HOV and parallel
general purpose lane (GPL) capacity in each time period’s highway network. As part of our time of
day network preparation and to improve model validation, we also reduced the link capacity for 22
links, representing 8 bridge and tunnel crossings, to reflect the limited throughput of these confined
facilities..
To better function with our time of day networks, we adjusted the volume-delay function for freeway
facilities. The volume-delay relationship dictates how travel speeds decrease with increasing traffic
volumes. The HRPDC model contains independent volume-delay functions for classes of highway
52
Fitzgerald and Haliday, Inc. and COMSIS Corporation, “Hampton Roads Crossing Study Home Interview Report”, prepared for Virginia
Department of Transportation, July 1996
53
Please refer to the following webpage for details: http://www.virginiadot.org/travel/hov-default.asp
December 2007
Page A-8
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
links. The unadjusted HRPDC model specifies the conventional BPR function (a=0.15, b=4.0) for
freeways. After reviewing research on this topic,54 we adjusted the coefficients of the volume-delay
function for freeways to a=0.4 and b=6.0. The set of parameters used in the unadjusted model is
generally appropriate for a single 24-hour day; a ‘steeper’ volume/delay curve tends to more
accurately reflect traffic distribution in a smaller time period.
Generalized Travel TCost
The original HRPDC model’s highway assignment loads vehicles onto the network by selecting the
path that minimizes the generalized travel cost that includes time, distance, and toll elements. We
maintained this generalized cost framework while specifying parameter values to support our more
disaggregate assignment framework and to better match existing conditions.
We represented the generalized cost in dollars and so needed to apply a value of time (VOT) to the
travel time in order to convert it into dollars. The VOT is the monetary equivalent of a unit of time
spent during a trip. As noted above, one of our enhancements to the model was to include different
trip purposes and to divide workw and heavy htruck trips by income level in order to better
represent the distribution of VOTs among travelers.
For auto trips, we derived the VOT for each segment from regional income levels. Specifically, we
identified how many households had annual household income levels within each of our four
income group ranges according to Census income data. Using the distribution of household
income levels and an assumed average annual household income for each of the Census income
ranges in our data set, we calculated the average household income for each of our income groups.
Using US DOT guidelines, we then converted annual household income levels to an average hourly
wage rate for each income group by dividing by 2080 hours.55 We finally determined VOT by
assuming the VOT for Work and Non-Work purposes to be 40% and 20%, respectively, of the
average wage rate. We also assumed the HOV VOT to be 60% of the average wage rate. The
60% factor reflects the facts that HRPDC model HOV trips are work purpose and that the
passenger’s VOT is not as high as the driver’s VOT. Applying this approach produced the following
VOTs (2000 dollars / hour):
•
Work Income Group 1 = $2.83
•
Work Income Group 2 = $7.14
•
Work Income Group 3 = $12.02
•
Work Income Group 4 = $22.18
•
Non-Work = $5.05
•
HOV = $15.15
There have been many studies to determine heavy vehicle VOT. FHWA research on the trucking
industry shows that shippers and carriers value transit time at $25 to $200 per hour, depending on
the product being carried. 56 A wide range of VOT can be found in the literature in part because
truck VOT depends on many factors; among them, the type of vehicle and its load, the drivers’
wage rates, the importance of punctual delivery, or whether the truck is operated in- house or for54
For example, Gan, Albert, Rax Jung, Min-Tang Li, and Chang-Jen Lan, “Incorporating Variable Peak-to-Daily Ratios into FSUMTS to
Reduce Assignment Error: Final Report (Volume II)”, 2003
55
U.S. Department of Transportation, Office of the Secretary of Transportation, “Departmental Guidance for the Valuation of Travel Time in
Economic Analysis”, 1997.
56
Federal Highway Administration, “Measuring Travel Time in Freight-Significant Corridors”, FHWA-HOP-05-036, EDL 14126, April 2006
December 2007
Page A-9
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
hire.57 For-hire trucks, for example, tend to have higher values of time than private ones as
companies that pay drivers hourly wages have higher values of time than those who pay
commissions or fixed salary.
According to Forkenbrock and March,58 the value of time used by FHWA is $25.24 per vehicle-hour
for large trucks. In their literature review, they found that VOTs for trucking range as high as
$193.80 per hour, with a median value of $40 per hour and a mean of $51.80 per hour59. The
Texas Transportation Institute estimates the value of truck time to be on the order of $25 to $35 per
hour. 60 A recent study of Minnesota Commercial Vehicle Operators, which relied upon a stated
preference survey, found an average VOT of $49.42 per hour.61 Ferrari in a 2002 study on optimum
toll level, assumed a normal distribution for the value of travel time, with mean (VOT) and variance
(0.3VOT2).62 In Virginia, the toll feasibility study for US 460 conducted by Parsons Transportation
Group assumed a three- and four-axle truck VOT of $25 per hour and a heavy truck VOT in
quartiles ranging from $7.22 to $66.85 per hour.63
In light of these various data sources and estimates, the following truck VOTs were selected for use
in this study (2000 dollars / hour):
•
Medium Truck: $25.00
•
Heavy Truck Quartile 1: $7.50
•
Heavy Truck Quartile 2: $20.00
•
Heavy Truck Quartile 3: $35.00
•
Heavy Truck Quartile 4: $50.00
The mean values align with the latest recommendations issued by FHWA and lie within the
acceptable range of values reflected in the literature.
Feedback Loop
Many regional travel demand models are now incorporating a feedback loop that inputs travel times
from peak period highway assignment into the trip distribution step. The benefit of this inclusion of
a feedback loop is that it allows trip pattern decisions made in the trip distribution step to be based
upon travel times that are similar to those used for selecting the travel path in highway assignment.
To input the speed feedback loop, we fed the travel times from the AM peak period highway
assignment into the trip distribution step for work trips; non-work trip purposes continued to use
uncongested travel times as in the original HRPDC model. Different regional travel demand models
use different criteria for determining when travel times have converged and thus to end the
feedback loop. We reviewed some of these methods and implemented an approach similar to that
used in the Atlanta Regional Commission’s travel demand model. Specifically, we used the Method
of Successive Averages to combine travel times between iterations, and considered travel times to
have converged after the following two conditions were met:
57
De Palma, André, Moez Kilani, and Robin Lindsey, “Where are the benefits from separating cars and trucks?”, Working Paper, 2006,
referencing work of De Jong 2000 and Kawamura 2000 and 2003.
58
as reported in De Palma, 2006
59
as reported in De Palma, 2006
60
Texas Transportation Researcher, Vol. 39 No. 1 2003, a publication of the Texas Transportation Institute
61
Smalkoski, Brian, and David Levinson, “Value of Time for Commercial Vehicle Operators in Minnesota”, December 2003. Smalkoski and
Levinson found an average value of $49.42, which converts to $55.25 in 2006 dollars.
62
P. Ferrari “Road Network Toll Pricing and Social Welfare”, Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 36, 2002, pp. 471-483. As reported in
st
FHWA/NJ-2005-012 “Evaluation Study of New Jersey Turnpike Authority’s Time of Day Pricing Initiative” May 31 2005 Final report
63
Parsons Transportation Group, “Route 460 Toll Feasibility Study Summary Report”, State Project 0460-969-101, April 26, 2005
December 2007
Page A-10
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
1. Weighted percent change in average travel time between feedback loop iterations is
less than 7%.
2. Total percent change in link volumes between iterations is less than 3%.
All alternatives were cycled through the feedback loop six times, whereupon convergence criteria
were satisfied for all but one of the demand sensitivity scenarios. That scenario was subsequently
run for two more (eight total) iterations to successfully satisfy convergence criteria.
Model Validation
After enhancing the HRPDC travel demand model as described above, we compared its
performance to the original model and validated against observed data where available.
Specifically, we performed cutline analysis of traffic volumes for two major river crossings, including
the Elizabeth River, and we reviewed travel times of major roads in the study area. We also
analyzed traffic patterns both of focus area trips and for the entire region, and considered the
vehicle miles traveled (VMT) of the overall region. Finally, as an indication of the toll forecasting
capabilities of the model, we reviewed forecasts with and without tolls for the original and enhanced
models.
Cutline
A common step in the validation of travel demand models is to compare how closely the model
predicts traffic to actual traffic levels. This check is commonly conducted for “cutlines” of roughly
parallel locations since a travel demand model may have trouble identifying some particular
features that cause travelers to choose a particular road instead of a nearby one. As part of our
validation, we evaluated traffic levels for two cutline locations, displayed in Exhibit A-4. The first
cutline is for the crossing of the Elizabeth River including its southern branch and the second cutline
is for the crossing of Hampton Roads. For each of these cutlines, we collected observed traffic
levels from the VDOT traffic count program. For some locations we were able to obtain the
distribution of traffic throughout the day for 2006 and / or 2007. We used these data to identify
approximate volumes of traffic in the AM and PM peak periods for year 2000. We also identified
heavy vehicle daily traffic volumes for the count locations.
December 2007
Page A-11
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
B
HR
JA
M
ES
RI
VE
R
BR
G
Exhibit A-4: Map of Cutline Locations
M
ID
TO
W
N
TU
Cutline 1
N
L
MMB
T
T
Cutline 2
WN
TO
WN
DO
NL
TU
RG
NB
DA
JOR
WY
ARY H
MILIT
I 64
Exhibit A-5 presents the Elizabeth River Crossing cutline information. This is the main study area
cutline, and includes Midtown and Downtown tunnel crossings and their competing routes. The
structure of the table includes the observed traffic volumes for both all vehicles and for heavy
vehicles only at the daily, AM and PM peak period levels in the right columns for each location of
the cutline. The model forecasted traffic levels and the percentage difference from observed levels
for all vehicles and heavy vehicles only are in the center columns for the original model and in the
left columns for the enhanced model. Exhibit A-5 shows that the enhanced model provides
forecasts that are closer to actual traffic levels, with the cutline total difference reduced from 4% for
the original model to 2% for the enhanced model. The enhanced model more closely predicts
traffic levels for all but one location, the Downtown Tunnel, and the increased difference in that
location is a result of the enhanced model vastly improving the forecast of the Midtown Tunnel
causing extra traffic in the model to shift to the Downtown Tunnel. When considering the two
tunnels only, the difference in the forecast of the enhanced model is only half of the forecast
difference of the original model (11,267 vs. 22,184).
December 2007
Page A-12
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit A-5: Elizabeth River Crossings Cutline Traffic Volumes
Observed
Midtown
Tunnel
Downtown
Tunnel
Jordan Bridge
Military
Highway (US
460 / US 13)
I-64 (High Rise
Bridge)
Cutline Total
Original Model
Enhanced Model
All Vehicles
Heavy
Vehicles
All Vehicles
% Difference
Heavy
Vehicles
% Difference
All Vehicles
% Difference
Heavy
Vehicles
% Difference
Daily
31,000
1,347
45,869
48%
N/A
N/A
32,999
6%
1,719
28%
AM
4,981
5,376
8%
316
PM
5,872
5,798
-1%
186
Daily
99,423
108,691
9%
4,638
AM
16,562
18,194
10%
690
PM
15,939
19,806
24%
542
Daily
7,443
6,167
-17%
168
AM
1,275
1,496
17%
100
PM
1,361
2,237
64%
42
Daily
30,550
29,825
-2%
143
AM
5,875
4,914
-16%
18
PM
7,261
5,926
-18%
20
Daily
73,280
70,046
-4%
4,335
AM
12,549
11,766
-6%
683
PM
13,398
14,066
5%
571
Daily
241,696
247,728
2%
11,004
AM
41,242
41,746
1%
1,807
PM
43,830
47,833
9%
1,362
5,007
285
742
6,421
13,802
106,738
11,610
24,309
63,761
252,286
7%
56%
-20%
-13%
4%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
-7%
-41%
-81%
-32%
-20%
Source: VDOT, CRA International
December 2007
Page A-13
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit A-6 presents the Hampton Roads Crossing cutline information. Hampton Roads is a natural
barrier of the region, separating the Peninsula from the Southside, and is another major cutline in
the region. Exhibit A-6 is structured the same as Exhibit A-5. For the Hampton Roads Crossing,
the enhanced model does a better job of matching the total cutline volume, with a 6% difference
compared to an 11% difference for the original model.
December 2007
Page A-14
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit A-6: Hampton Roads Crossings Cutline Traffic Volumes
Observed
MMBT
HRBT
James
River
Bridge
Cutline
Total
Original Model
Enhanced Model
All Vehicles
Heavy
Vehicles
All Vehicles
% Difference
Heavy
Vehicles
% Difference
All Vehicles
Daily
47,000
3,212
60,400
29%
N/A
N/A
AM
10,751
PM
7,968
Daily
84,823
AM
% Difference
Heavy
Vehicles
% Difference
55,042
17%
5,618
75%
7,628
-29%
731
9,841
24%
783
88,818
5%
4,565
16,162
12,582
-22%
739
PM
13,721
15,378
12%
549
Daily
26,635
24,567
-8%
624
AM
4,934
3,766
-24%
79
PM
6,203
4,889
-21%
71
Daily
158,458
168,427
6%
10,807
AM
31,847
23,975
-25%
1,549
PM
27,893
30,108
8%
1,403
4,492
1,122
8,826
86,173
28,599
175,172
2%
7%
11%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2%
-44%
22%
Source: VDOT, CRA International
December 2007
Page A-15
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Travel Time
Travel time, in particular the travel time savings offered by a tolled route, is a major input in the
decision to use a tolled path. We therefore evaluated how well the model predicted travel times.
The HRPDC conducts a regional travel time collection program, with the most recent collection
effort in 2002.64 Additionally, as part of its congestion management program, the HRPDC collects
travel time information for bridges and tunnels in the region.65 We extracted travel time information
from these two sources for the AM and PM peak periods for travel in each direction on major roads
in our study area to use as observed values. For tunnels and bridges with travel times included in
both sources, we simply averaged the values included in each source. It is important to note that
while travel time data collection for a specific route might typically include multiple observations for
each time period to capture the variability of travel times even during a single peak period, the
Hampton Roads Regional Travel Time program only collects one observation in each direction for
each time period because of the extent of its coverage. Accordingly, the observed travel times
served as an indication of the travel time for the road in that time period.
Exhibits A-7 through A-11 compare the original and enhanced models’ forecasted travel times to
the observed travel times for major study area roads during the two peak periods in each direction.
Specifically, Exhibit A-7 presents travel times for eastbound travel in the AM peak period; Exhibit A8 presents travel times for westbound travel in the AM peak period; Exhibit A-9 presents travel
times for eastbound travel in the PM peak period; and Exhibit A-10 presents travel times for
westbound travel in the PM peak period.
There are two major contributing factors to any discrepancies:
•
First as discussed above, most of the observed travel times are based on a single
observation which does not capture the variability of travel times during different portions of
the peak periods.
•
Second, the enhanced model is a macro model that treats vehicles as a flow and does not
account for independent interactions of vehicles with each other and road conditions
through the complex geometry of some road segments.
Despite these limitations, the enhanced model improves travel times that occur during the peak
periods and directions, in large part because of its time of day element.
64
Hampton Roads Planning District Commission, “Hampton Roads Regional Travel Time”, 2002
Hampton Roads Planning District Commission, “Congestion Management System: Bridges and Tunnels Roadway Congestion Analysis
Mitigation Strategies and Evaluation Part 2”, 2005
65
December 2007
Page A-16
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit A-7: Travel Time Eastbound AM66
Eastbound AM
Extents
To
Observed
Original
Model
% Difference
Enhanced
Model
% Difference
From
Midtown Tunnel /
MLK Freeway
Brambleton Av
Turnpike Rd
14.3
3.6
-75%
9.7
-32%
I-264 / Downtown
Tunnel / Berkley
Bridge
Brambleton Av
Frederick Blvd
13.7
6.1
-55%
9.5
-30%
Elm St (Jordan
Brdg)
I-464
G. W. Hwy
5.4
4.0
-25%
3.8
-29%
Military Highway
I-464
Airline Blvd
13.9
13.0
-6%
12.4
-10%
I-64 (High Rise
Bridge)
I-464
Bowers Hill Rp
12.5
9.2
-26%
9.2
-27%
Frederick
Boulevard
G. W. Hwy
High St
5.9
4.0
-32%
4.1
-30%
Table A-8: Travel Time Westbound AM64
Westbound AM
Extents
To
Observed
Original
Model
% Difference
Enhanced
Model
% Difference
From
Midtown Tunnel /
MLK Freeway
Turnpike Rd
Brambleton Av
5.5
3.6
-35%
3.9
-29%
I-264 / Downtown
Tunnel / Berkley
Bridge
Frederick Blvd
Brambleton Av
8.1
6.4
-22%
5.8
-29%
Elm St (Jordan
Brdg)
G. W. Hwy
I-464
6.3
4.0
-37%
3.6
-43%
Military Highway
Airline Blvd
I-464
14.3
12.8
-10%
12.9
-10%
I-64 (High Rise
Bridge)
Bowers Hill Rp
I-464
8.7
9.4
8%
8.1
-7%
Frederick Boulevard
High St
G. W. Hwy
6.2
4.1
-33%
4.0
-34%
Exhibit A-9: Travel Time Eastbound PM64
Eastbound PM
Extents
To
Original
Model
% Difference
Enhanced
Model
% Difference
9.7
3.6
-63%
5.1
-47%
7.3
6.1
-16%
6.8
-7%
From
Midtown Tunnel /
MLK Freeway
Brambleton Av
I-264 / Downtown
Tunnel / Berkley
Bridge
Brambleton Av
Elm St (Jordan
Brdg)
I-464
G. W. Hwy
Military Highway
I-464
Airline Blvd
I-64 (High Rise
Bridge)
I-464
Bowers Hill Rp
Frederick
Boulevard
G. W. Hwy
66
Observed
Turnpike Rd
Frederick Blvd
13.2
4.0
-69%
3.9
-71%
15.5
13.0
-16%
14.0
-10%
8.8
9.2
5%
9.3
6%
5.0
4.0
-20%
4.3
-15%
High St
Source: HRPDC, CRA International
December 2007
Page A-17
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit A-10: Travel Time Westbound PM67
Westbound AM
Extents
To
Observed
Original
Model
% Difference
Enhanced
Model
% Difference
From
Midtown Tunnel /
MLK Freeway
Turnpike Rd
Brambleton Av
6.1
3.6
-41%
9.7
59%
I-264 / Downtown
Tunnel / Berkley
Bridge
Frederick Blvd
Brambleton Av
10.0
6.4
-36%
11.2
12%
Elm St (Jordan
Brdg)
G. W. Hwy
I-464
5.9
4.0
-33%
5.4
-9%
Military Highway
Airline Blvd
I-464
15.4
12.8
-16%
13.2
-14%
I-64 (High Rise
Bridge)
Bowers Hill Rp
I-464
9.0
9.4
5%
11.2
25%
Frederick Boulevard
High St
G. W. Hwy
5.8
4.1
-29%
4.3
-26%
Travel Patterns
We made a couple of modifications to the trip distribution step - adding the toll cost into the
impedance and including a travel time feedback loop - with the intention of improving the trip
patterns developed by the enhanced model. To evaluate trip patterns, we compared the work trip
patterns contained in the 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) to those
developed by the model. We present two comparisons of model work trip patterns to CTPP trip
patterns. The first comparison considers only those trips for origin-destinations that are likely to use
the Midtown or Downtown Tunnels. The second comparison considers all trips of the model.
Exhibits A-11 through A-15 present the first comparison of work trips of primary interest to this
study. To isolate the trips that are potential users of the Midtown and Downtown Tunnels, we used
the model’s select link technique to identify the origin-destination pairs having trips that use either
tunnel. We then isolated all CTPP and model work trips of these origin-destination pairs for this
analysis. Finally, we aggregated trip information to the county level for presentation purposes.
Exhibit A-11 displays the actual county-level trip patterns for trips that potentially would use either
the Midtown or Downtown Tunnel. Exhibit A-12 presents the home based hbwork trip patterns from
the original model, and Exhibit A-13 displays the differences in number of trips between Exhibits A11 and A-12. Exhibit A-14 presents the home based hbwork trip patterns from the enhanced
model, while Exhibit A-15 displays the difference in number of trips between Exhibits A-11 and A14. A comparison of Exhibits A-13 and A-14 shows that, for the most part, the enhanced model
more closely matches the CTPP trips. In particular, the original model is off by over 4,000 trips for
the important county-pair of Portsmouth to Norfolk while the enhanced model differs by less than
1,000 trips.
67
Source: HRPDC, CRA International
December 2007
Page A-18
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit A-11: Observed County-County CTPP Tunnel Potential Trips
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
0
0
4
0
0
0
24
0
0
0
0
28
0
0
0
0
0 1,124
0
0
0
14
0 424
0
0
0 1,758
0 287
0 307
0
0
0
0
0
147
0
0
0
33
47 4,722
0
97
0
64
44
0
0
4
0 6,930
0 1,839
285
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
1,828
136
0
2,440
30
0
0
4,212
0
burg
Willia
ms
Beac
h
Virgin
ia
Suffo
lk
Ports
mou
th
Poqu
oson
Norfo
lk
port
N
e ws
0
0
0
0
20
0
0
0
0
14
0
0
0
New
Ham
pton
e
apea
k
Ches
y
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
York
Jame
s Cit
ht
f Wig
Isle o
Origin
Gloucester
Isle of Wight
James City
York
Chesapeake
Hampton
Newport News
Norfolk
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Suffolk
Virginia Beach
Williamsburg
Glou
ceste
r
Destination
0
0
0
58
0
0
0
0
82
903
0
0
0
0
78
0
0
0
0 1,431
0
482
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Source: Census Transportation Planning Package, CRA International
Exhibit A-12: Original Model County - County Home Based Work Tunnel Potential Trips
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
0
0
8
0
0
0
23
0
0
0
0
22
0
0
0
0
0 704
0
2
0
5
0 296
0
0
0 1,730
0 138
0 240
0
0
0
0
0
354
0
0
0
9
26 5,330
0
30
0
38
13
0
0
2
0 11,265
0 2,002
53
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
2,780
38
2
2,534
2
0
0
2,622
0
0
0
0
69
0
0
0
0
40
886
0
0
0
1
47
0
0
0
0 1,798
0
412
78
0
0
0
burg
Willia
ms
Beac
h
Virgin
ia
Suffo
lk
Ports
mou
th
Poqu
oson
Norfo
lk
port
N
e ws
0
0
0
0
9
0
0
1
0
13
0
0
0
New
Ham
pton
Ches
apea
k
e
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
York
y
Jame
s Cit
ht
f Wig
Isle o
Origin
Gloucester
Isle of Wight
James City
York
Chesapeake
Hampton
Newport News
Norfolk
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Suffolk
Virginia Beach
Williamsburg
Glou
ceste
r
Destination
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Source: Census Transportation Planning Package, CRA International
December 2007
Page A-19
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit A-13: Difference between Observed and Original Model County - County Home
Based Work Tunnel Potential Trips
0
-6
0
0
-420
2
-9
-128
0
-28
-149
-67
0
0
0
0
207
0
0
0
-24
-21
608
0
-67
0
-26
-31
0
0
-2
0 4,335
0
163
-232
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-7
952
-98
2
94
-28
0
0
-1,590
0
burg
Willia
ms
Beac
h
0
0
0
0
-42
0
0
-31
0
0
0
-22
0
Virgin
ia
Suffo
lk
Ports
mou
th
Poqu
oson
Norfo
lk
port
N
e ws
0
0
0
0
-11
0
0
1
0
-1
0
0
0
New
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Ham
pton
e
apea
k
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Ches
y
York
ht
f Wig
0
0
0
0
-30
0
0
4
0
0
0
-1
0
Jame
s Cit
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Isle o
Origin
Gloucester
Isle of Wight
James City
York
Chesapeake
Hampton
Newport News
Norfolk
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Suffolk
Virginia Beach
Williamsburg
Glou
ceste
r
Destination
0
11
0
0
-17
0
1
0
0
367
-70
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Source: Census Transportation Planning Package, CRA International
Exhibit A-14: Enhanced Model County - County Home Based Work Tunnel Potential Trips
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
0
6
0
0
0
29
0
0
0
0
34
0
0
0
0
0 965
0
2
0
5
0 248
0
0
0 2,333
0 201
0 260
0
0
0
0
0
248
0
0
0
9
20 4,894
0
30
0
34
8
0
0
2
0 7,902
0 1,798
42
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
2,443
35
1
1,619
2
0
0
2,267
0
0
0
0
79
0
0
0
0
41 1,097
0
0
0
1
36
0
0
0
0 2,014
0
474
75
0
0
0
burg
Willia
ms
Beac
h
Virgin
ia
Suffo
lk
Ports
mou
th
Poqu
oson
Norfo
lk
port
N
e ws
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
10
0
0
0
New
Ham
pton
Ches
apea
k
e
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
York
y
Jame
s Cit
ht
f Wig
Isle o
Origin
Gloucester
Isle of Wight
James City
York
Chesapeake
Hampton
Newport News
Norfolk
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Suffolk
Virginia Beach
Williamsburg
Glou
ceste
r
Destination
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Source: Census Transportation Planning Package, CRA International
December 2007
Page A-20
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit A-15: Difference between Observed and Enhanced Model County - County Home
Based Work Tunnel Potential Trips
0
6
0
0
-159
2
-9
-176
0
575
-86
-47
0
0
0
0
0
-27
0
0
-36
0
0
0
-243
0
0
101
0
-24
172
-67
-30
0
-2
972
-41
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-8
615
-101
1
-821
-28
0
0
-1,945
0
0
21
0
0
194
0
1
0
0
583
-9
0
0
burg
Willia
ms
Beac
h
0
0
0
0
-41
0
0
-42
0
0
0
-25
0
Virgin
ia
Suffo
lk
Ports
mou
th
Poqu
oson
Norfo
lk
port
N
e ws
0
0
0
0
-12
0
0
0
0
-4
0
0
0
New
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Ham
pton
e
apea
k
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-28
0
0
2
0
0
0
5
0
Ches
York
y
ht
f Wig
Jame
s Cit
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Isle o
Origin
Gloucester
Isle of Wight
James City
York
Chesapeake
Hampton
Newport News
Norfolk
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Suffolk
Virginia Beach
Williamsburg
Glou
ceste
r
Destination
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Source: Census Transportation Planning Package, CRA International
Exhibits A-16 through A-18 contain the second comparison of work trips, this time for the entire
model coverage area. Exhibit A-16 displays the county-county trip flows contained in the CTPP
with each county pair’s value representing its share of all trips. Exhibit A-17 and A-18 contain the
model’s work trips in the same format for the original and the enhanced model respectively. These
tables show that both the original and the enhanced models produce work trip patterns similar to
CTPP for the entire HRPDC region.
Exhibit A-16: Observed County - County Home Based Work Trips
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
0.1%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.5%
0.1%
0.1%
0.9%
0.0%
1.1%
0.5%
2.6%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
0.2%
4.9%
2.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0.0%
0.3% 0.0%
0.3% 0.1%
0.4% 0.0%
1.1% 0.1%
0.2% 3.5%
2.4% 0.8%
6.9% 0.5%
0.3% 10.5%
0.2% 0.0%
0.2% 1.2%
0.2% 0.5%
0.3% 7.9%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
1.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.6%
0.0%
2.8%
0.5%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.1%
0.3% 2.2%
0.0% 0.2%
0.1% 0.2%
0.1% 2.4%
0.0% 0.0%
0.2% 0.4%
1.6% 0.2%
0.2% 18.2%
0.0% 0.0%
g
Willia
msbu
r
Beac
h
Virgin
ia
Suffo
lk
Ports
mou
th
Poqu
oson
Norfo
lk
port
New
s
New
pton
Ham
apea
ke
0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
1.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.7%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
Ches
York
Jame
s Cit
y
Isle o
f Wig
ht
Origin
Gloucester
Isle of Wight
James City
York
Chesapeake
Hampton
Newport News
Norfolk
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Suffolk
Virginia Beach
Williamsburg
Glou
ceste
r
Destination
0.1%
0.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
0.1%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Source: Census Transportation Planning Package, CRA International
December 2007
Page A-21
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Exhibit A-17: Original Model County - County Home Based Work Trips
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
0.4%
0.0%
0.1%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
5.5%
0.1%
0.1%
0.8%
0.0%
1.1%
0.6%
2.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.7%
0.1%
5.0%
2.0%
0.1%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1% 0.0%
0.2% 0.1%
0.2% 0.0%
1.3% 0.1%
0.1% 3.3%
2.7% 0.4%
6.8% 0.2%
0.1% 10.4%
0.2% 0.0%
0.1% 1.5%
0.2% 0.4%
0.1% 7.7%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
1.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
0.0%
2.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.0%
Willia
msbu
rg
Virgin
ia Be
ach
Suffo
lk
mou
th
Ports
Poqu
oson
Norfo
lk
New
port
New
s
Ham
pton
apea
ke
0.1%
0.0%
0.3%
0.8%
0.0%
0.3%
0.8%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
Ches
York
Jame
s Cit
y
Isle o
f Wig
ht
Origin
Gloucester
Isle of Wight
James City
York
Chesapeake
Hampton
Newport News
Norfolk
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Suffolk
Virginia Beach
Williamsburg
Glou
ceste
r
Destination
0.0% 0.0%
0.2% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.4% 2.2%
0.0% 0.1%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 2.3%
0.0% 0.0%
0.2% 0.3%
1.8% 0.2%
0.1% 20.6%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.0%
0.1%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Source: Census Transportation Planning Package, CRA International
Exhibit A-18: Enhanced Model County - County Home Based Work Trips
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
0.4%
0.0%
0.1%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
5.4%
0.1%
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
1.3%
0.6%
2.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.7%
0.1%
5.1%
2.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1% 0.0%
0.1% 0.1%
0.1% 0.0%
1.3% 0.1%
0.1% 3.5%
2.8% 0.4%
6.8% 0.2%
0.0% 10.6%
0.3% 0.0%
0.1% 1.1%
0.1% 0.4%
0.0% 8.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
1.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.0%
2.7%
0.5%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.2% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.3% 2.1%
0.0% 0.1%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 2.3%
0.0% 0.0%
0.3% 0.4%
1.8% 0.2%
0.1% 20.6%
0.0% 0.0%
Willia
msbu
rg
Beac
h
Virgin
ia
Suffo
lk
Ports
mou
th
Poqu
oson
Norfo
lk
t New
s
New
por
Ham
pton
eake
0.1%
0.0%
0.3%
0.7%
0.0%
0.2%
0.8%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
Ches
ap
York
Jame
s Cit
y
Isle o
f Wig
ht
Origin
Gloucester
Isle of Wight
James City
York
Chesapeake
Hampton
Newport News
Norfolk
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Suffolk
Virginia Beach
Williamsburg
Glou
ceste
r
Destination
0.1%
0.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.1%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
Source: Census Transportation Planning Package, CRA International
VMT
The Vehicle Miles Traveled produced via the enhanced model were also compared to HRPDC
measured estimates. The HRPDC model network data includes traffic count volumes for many
links. By combining this count information with link distances, VMT levels can be easily computed.
A sampling of data indicated that most of the enhanced model link volumes matched traffic count
data collected from VDOT’s traffic count program.
The model’s forecasted VMT was also calculated by combining the forecasted volumes with the link
distance for the links that had traffic count information.
Exhibit A-19 compares the original and enhanced models’ VMT levels to the observed VMT levels
by facility type (freeway, principal arterial, minor arterial, and collectors) and area type (urban,
suburban, and rural), and Exhibit A-20 compares the VMT levels of all area types combined. These
December 2007
Page A-22
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
tables indicate that for some facility type - area type combinations the enhanced model more
closely matches observed VMT levels, while for others the original model more closely matches
observations. In general, network indicators verify that localized study area enhancements to the
model have not adversely affected the network at large.
Exhibit A-19: Modeled VMT vs. Actual VMT – Urban, Suburban & Rural
Urban
Facility
Type
Suburban
Rural
Observed
Original
Model
Enhanced
Model
Observed
Original
Model
Enhanced
Model
Observed
Original
Model
Enhanced
Model
Freeway
105,518
102,433
96,628
3,698,668
3,667,714
3,535,440
1,370,352
1,579,34
8
1,460,493
Principal
Arterial
232,578
206,852
232,094
1,428,504
1,317,905
1,441,218
500,719
567,376
648,907
Minor Arterial
172,054
160,327
155,788
2,846,518
2,683,824
2,772,001
734,468
864,209
896,860
7,832
327
3,146
215,727
132,872
136,641
161,143
127,194
132,746
Collectors
Exhibit A-20: Modeled VMT vs. Actual VMT - Total
Total
Facility Type
Observed
Original
Model
Enhanced
Model
Freeway
5,174,538
5,349,495
5,092,561
Principal Arterial
2,161,801
2,092,133
2,322,219
Minor Arterial
3,753,040
3,708,360
3,824,649
Collectors
384,702
260,393
272,533
Toll Sensitivity
As a final review of the enhanced model before using it for our toll forecasting, we evaluated
forecasts produced for the Midtown Tunnel and Downtown Tunnel with and without tolls. Exhibit A21 presents the results of adding $0.50 and $1.00 tolls on the Midtown and Downtown Tunnels to
the original and enhanced models. Using the models’ predicted volumes at each toll level, we
calculated the mid point arc elasticity. It was necessary to use the mid point arc elasticity rather
than the log arc elasticity because our validated base point has no toll which computationally
prohibits calculation of the log arc elasticity.
A literature review of different studies that compile elasticity observations found a range of elasticity
values between -0.03 and -0.5. However, care must be used when comparing elasticities from
different studies because different methods commonly used to compute elasticity can obtain
different values even when using identical inputs. Also, elasticity to tolls is facility-specific in many
regards since travelers’ responses to tolls will likely differ by location depending on the level of
service offered by competing routes and the regional VOTs. Exhibit A-21 shows that while the
December 2007
Page A-23
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
elasticities of both models are in the range found in the literature, the enhanced model is more
elastic than the original model.
Exhibit A-21: Toll Volumes and Mid Point Arc Elasticity
No Toll
$1.00 Toll
Original
Model
Enhanced
Model
Original
Model
Enhanced
Model
Original
Model
Enhanced
Model
Midtown Tunnel Volume
45,869
32,999
42,117
28,810
38,249
26,906
Downtown Tunnel Volume
106,738
108,691
97,724
84,971
88,626
57,447
Total Volume
152,607
141,691
139,841
113,781
126,875
84,353
-0.044
-0.109
-0.092
-0.254
Mid Point Arc Elasticity
December 2007
$0.50 Toll
Page A-24
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
This Page Intentionally Left Blank.
December 2007
Page A-25
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
APPENDIX B
TOLL REVENUE FORECASTING
December 2007
Page B-1
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Introduction
The methodology used to forecast MTCP toll revenues is described in this appendix, including:
•
Review of the future daily traffic forecasts generated by the enhanced model;
•
Translation of these values into gross annual revenue; and
•
Production of the net annual revenue schedules.
Daily Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
The enhanced Hampton Roads regional travel demand model was used to generate daily traffic
forecasts for each of the toll cases for years 2020 and 2030:
•
For the cases with constant toll rates, the model was run with the appropriate toll levels
and traffic volumes for each of the four daily time periods (AM peak, PM peak, Mid-day,
Nighttime) were combined for total daily forecasts.
•
For cases with toll rates fluctuating by time of day, toll forecasts for daily time periods
were developed for additional toll rates of: $0.25, $1.25, $1.75, $2.50, and $3.00.
Recognizing that there were constant toll rates similar to each of these additional toll rates
and assuming that travel patterns would not change significantly, only the highway
assignment step of the model was run to generate traffic estimates. The volume results for
appropriate rates and time periods were combined for total daily forecasts.
•
For high and low demand sensitivity runs, the final trip table from the Toll Alternative 3
(middle toll level) was compared to the year 2000 final trip table. The volume difference
between the two represented the total trip growth. Seventy-five percent (75%) of the
growth was applied to the year 2000 trip table to estimate a low demand scenario and
125% of the growth was applied for the high demand scenario.
•
The Hampton Roads Third Crossing Demand Sensitivity scenario was run using the
full travel forecasting procedure, with the highway network modified to reflect the additional
capacity of the Hampton Roads Third Crossing project.
Corresponding revenue for all cases and scenarios was calculated based on the estimated traffic
volumes and assumed toll rates.
Toll Forecast Profile
The 2030 daily forecasts were then reviewed as an indication of the relationships between the toll
rates, and traffic and revenue levels. Exhibits B-1 through B-4 display the profile of daily traffic and
revenue across the toll alternatives for year 2030 for each toll case. Exhibit B-1 depicts the
relationship of daily traffic and revenue for toll alternatives of the No Toll on MLK with constant toll
rates case. The daily revenue increases with increasing toll rates, from $82,000 at the $0.50 toll
level to $222,000 at the $2.00 level. The increase over the range shown suggests that higher toll
levels could produce more toll revenue if needed to finance this project. The daily traffic decreases
with increasing toll rates.
December 2007
Page B-2
IBI GROUP
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MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
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$250,000
200,000
$200,000
160,000
$150,000
120,000
$100,000
80,000
$50,000
40,000
$0
Daily Traffic
Daily Revenue
Exhibit B-1: 2030 Daily Traffic and Revenue Profile for No MLK Toll Scenario
0
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
Revenue
Toll Scenario
Traffic
Exhibit B-2 displays the same relationship of daily traffic and revenue of toll alternatives for the No
Toll on MLK Scenario with constant toll rates concept, but this time with tolls that vary by time of
day tolls. The revenue curve still increases with increasing toll rates, now from $85,000 at the
lowest toll level to $239,000 at the highest toll level. In general, revenue is higher than when
constant toll rates throughout the day are used; this highlights the potential revenue benefit of using
time of day tolls.
$300,000
200,000
$250,000
160,000
$200,000
120,000
$150,000
80,000
$100,000
Daily Traffic
Daily Revenue
Exhibit B-2: 2030 Daily Traffic and Revenue Profile for No MLK Toll Scenario with Time of Day Tolls
40,000
$50,000
$0
0
Toll 1
Toll 2
Toll 3
Toll 4
Toll Scenario
Toll 5
Revenue
Traffic
Exhibit B-3 displays the same relationship of daily traffic and revenue for each toll alternative of the
Toll on MLK with constant toll rates concept. As might be expected, revenue is greater than without
tolls on MLK. It still is continuously increasing with rising toll rates, now from $90,000 at the $0.50
toll level to $234,000 at the $2.00 toll level. As with the other exhibits, the daily traffic decreases
with the higher toll levels.
December 2007
Page B-3
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Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
$300,000
240,000
$250,000
200,000
$200,000
160,000
$150,000
120,000
$100,000
80,000
$50,000
40,000
$0
Daily Traffic
Daily Revenue
Exhibit B-3: 2030 Daily Traffic and Revenue Profile for MLK Toll Scenario
0
Toll 1
Toll 2
Toll 3
Toll 4
Toll 5
Revenue
Toll Scenario
Traffic
Exhibit B-4 displays the relationship of daily traffic and revenue for toll alternatives of the Toll on
MLK with time of day toll rates concept. It has the highest revenue of any toll concept considered.
Like the others, it increases with increasing toll rates, now from $94,000 at the lowest toll level to
$252,000 at the highest toll level. Also like the other exhibits, the daily traffic decreases with the
higher toll levels.
$250,000
240,000
$200,000
200,000
160,000
$150,000
120,000
$100,000
80,000
$50,000
Daily Traffic
Daily Revenue
Exhibit B-4: 2030 Daily Traffic and Revenue Profile for MLK Toll Scenario with Time of Day Tolls
40,000
$0
0
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.50
Toll Scenario
$2.00
Revenue
Traffic
Gross Revenue Schedule Preparation
The daily traffic forecasts produced using the travel demand model were converted into a stream of
annual toll revenue as required by the financial model. This conversion from travel demand model
outputs to a revenue schedule included the development of non-forecasted year revenues, toll
inflation rate, annualization factor, and a ramp-up factor, as discussed in the following paragraphs.
December 2007
Page B-4
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Using the enhanced travel demand model, we produced traffic and revenue forecasts for each
alternative in years 2020 and 2030. Forecasts for non-model forecasted years between the
opening year and 2030 were estimated by applying the compound annual growth rate between the
2020 and 2030 forecasts to the 2020 and 2030 forecasts. Beyond 2030, traffic was projected to
grow at 1% annually between 2030 and 2049, at 0.5% annually between 2050 and 2074, and at
0.25% annually beyond 2075.
Combined with traffic growth, toll rate increases determine future year gross toll revenue. To
develop our revenue schedule, we assumed that toll rates will increase in line with Consumer Price
Index (CPI) at an annual growth rate of 2.5%. This approach is consistent with a toll increase
mechanism included in toll concession agreements, such as the Chicago Skyway Concession. Our
travel demand forecasting treats all monetary elements in constant year 2000 dollars. This required
us to convert the 2007 dollar toll rates for each alternative into 2000 dollars for the demand
modeling. We then converted the revenue forecasts from 2000 dollars into current year dollars by
applying this annual inflation rate of 2.5%.
The travel demand model produces daily forecasts, which we needed to convert to an annual level
for the financial analysis. We multiplied the daily forecasts by 315 to convert them into annual
forecasts. This 315-day annualization factor reflects the assumption that weekend days produce
roughly half the toll traffic and revenue as weekdays.
“Ramp-up” adjustments reflect the time for travelers to develop familiarity with the new toll facility,
and for the surrounding development to reach the steady state conditions assumed in the toll
model’s input data and forecasts. The toll facilities we are considering are not start-up projects
because tolls will be added to existing facilities with mature travel conditions. Thus we assume a
single year of ramp-up, with a 75% ramp-up factor reflecting that only 75% of forecasted traffic and
gross revenue would be realized in the opening year. Given the mature travel conditions of the
area, it is not anticipated that ramp-up would extend beyond one year.
Net Revenue Schedule Preparation
The final step in the conversion of the travel demand model outputs into the financial feasibility
analysis inputs was to prepare the net revenue schedule. To do this, we first needed to calculate
the transaction tcost schedule for each toll alternative. We use a transaction cost of $0.06 (2007
dollars) plus 2.2% of toll value to calculate the transaction costtc schedule. Since each toll
alternative results in a different number of transactions and toll revenue, the transaction costtc
varies by alternative. We developed a schedule of transaction tcosts by year from the
corresponding annual traffic and gross toll revenue forecasts for each alternative. We then
subtracted from the gross revenue schedule this transaction costtc schedule, along with the
operating costoc and maintenance costmc schedules, to determine the net revenue nrschedule.
Revenue Schedules
The following pages present the revenue schedules for each of the toll concepts and toll
alternatives.
December 2007
Page B-5
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-1 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 1
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
December 2007
$0.50 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$25,052,400
$3,526,815
$34,606,094
$4,904,955
$35,854,451
$5,116,433
$37,150,097
$5,337,261
$38,494,940
$5,567,867
$39,890,968
$5,808,695
$41,340,255
$6,060,213
$42,844,968
$6,322,910
$44,407,365
$6,597,299
$46,029,805
$6,883,917
$47,714,751
$7,183,326
$49,464,773
$7,496,116
$51,282,555
$7,822,904
$53,170,899
$8,164,338
$55,132,733
$8,521,095
$57,076,162
$8,895,276
$59,088,097
$9,285,995
$61,170,952
$9,693,985
$63,327,228
$10,120,015
$65,559,513
$10,564,887
$67,870,486
$11,029,437
$70,262,921
$11,514,541
$72,739,689
$12,021,113
$75,303,763
$12,550,108
$77,958,220
$13,102,523
$80,706,248
$13,679,400
$83,551,143
$14,281,828
$86,496,321
$14,910,943
$89,545,316
$15,567,935
$92,701,788
$16,254,044
$95,969,526
$16,970,567
$99,352,452
$17,718,857
$102,854,626
$18,500,331
$106,480,252
$19,316,467
$109,687,969
$20,068,963
$112,992,319
$20,850,982
$116,396,213
$21,663,688
$119,902,649
$22,508,291
$123,514,716
$23,386,051
$127,235,597
$24,298,277
$131,068,569
$25,246,328
$135,017,010
$26,231,620
$139,084,397
$27,255,623
$143,274,315
$28,319,866
$147,590,453
$29,425,939
$152,036,616
$30,575,494
$156,616,719
$31,770,249
$161,334,798
$33,011,991
$166,195,008
$34,302,576
$171,201,633
$35,643,937
Operations
$6,004,394
$6,214,548
$6,432,057
$6,657,179
$6,890,180
$7,131,337
$7,380,934
$7,639,266
$7,906,641
$8,183,373
$8,469,791
$8,766,234
$9,073,052
$9,390,609
$9,719,280
$10,059,455
$10,411,536
$10,775,939
$11,153,097
$11,543,456
$11,947,477
$12,365,638
$12,798,436
$13,246,381
$13,710,004
$14,189,854
$14,686,499
$15,200,527
$15,732,545
$16,283,184
$16,853,096
$17,442,954
$18,053,458
$18,685,329
$19,339,315
$20,016,191
$20,716,758
$21,441,844
$22,192,309
$22,969,040
$23,772,956
$24,605,010
$25,466,185
$26,357,501
$27,280,014
$28,234,814
$29,223,033
$30,245,839
$31,304,443
$32,400,099
Maintenance
$5,968,858
$6,177,768
$6,393,990
$6,617,780
$6,849,402
$7,089,131
$7,337,251
$7,594,054
$7,859,846
$8,134,941
$8,419,664
$8,714,352
$9,019,354
$9,335,032
$9,661,758
$9,999,919
$10,349,916
$10,712,164
$11,087,089
$11,475,137
$11,876,767
$12,292,454
$12,722,690
$13,167,984
$13,628,864
$14,105,874
$14,599,579
$15,110,565
$15,639,434
$16,186,815
$16,753,353
$17,339,720
$17,946,611
$18,574,742
$19,224,858
$19,897,728
$20,594,149
$21,314,944
$22,060,967
$22,833,101
$23,632,259
$24,459,388
$25,315,467
$26,201,508
$27,118,561
$28,067,711
$29,050,080
$30,066,833
$31,119,172
$32,208,343
Net Revenue
$9,552,332
$17,308,823
$17,911,971
$18,537,877
$19,187,491
$19,861,805
$20,561,858
$21,288,737
$22,043,579
$22,827,575
$23,641,971
$24,488,072
$25,367,245
$26,280,921
$27,230,600
$28,121,512
$29,040,650
$29,988,864
$30,967,027
$31,976,033
$33,016,805
$34,090,287
$35,197,450
$36,339,290
$37,516,830
$38,731,120
$39,983,236
$41,274,286
$42,605,401
$43,977,745
$45,392,511
$46,850,920
$48,354,226
$49,903,714
$51,054,832
$52,227,418
$53,421,619
$54,637,569
$55,875,389
$57,135,180
$58,417,026
$59,720,992
$61,047,122
$62,395,439
$63,765,939
$65,158,597
$66,573,356
$68,010,134
$69,468,816
$70,949,254
Page B-6
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-1 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 1 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
December 2007
$0.50 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$176,359,082
$37,038,079
$181,671,899
$38,487,091
$187,144,765
$39,993,142
$192,782,502
$41,558,489
$198,590,074
$43,185,477
$204,572,600
$44,876,545
$210,735,350
$46,634,230
$217,083,752
$48,461,166
$223,623,400
$50,360,096
$229,787,020
$52,203,686
$236,120,525
$54,115,213
$242,628,597
$56,097,192
$249,316,048
$58,152,234
$256,187,821
$60,283,044
$263,248,998
$62,492,431
$270,504,799
$64,783,305
$277,960,587
$67,158,688
$285,621,876
$69,621,711
$293,494,329
$72,175,623
$301,583,766
$74,823,794
$309,896,169
$77,569,719
$318,437,682
$80,417,024
$327,214,621
$83,369,467
$336,233,474
$86,430,950
$345,500,909
$89,605,517
$355,023,778
$92,897,364
$364,809,120
$96,310,843
$374,864,172
$99,850,468
$385,196,366
$103,520,921
$395,813,340
$107,327,059
$406,722,946
$111,273,918
$417,933,247
$115,366,724
$429,452,532
$119,610,895
$441,289,317
$124,012,054
$453,452,354
$128,576,031
$465,950,635
$133,308,873
$478,793,399
$138,216,855
$491,990,142
$143,306,483
$505,550,620
$148,584,507
$519,484,859
$154,057,928
$533,803,161
$159,734,008
$548,516,110
$165,620,280
$563,634,586
$171,724,557
$579,169,764
$178,054,944
$595,133,130
$184,619,849
$611,536,487
$191,427,991
$628,391,962
$198,488,416
$645,712,015
$205,810,507
$663,509,453
$213,403,998
Operations
$33,534,102
$34,707,796
$35,922,569
$37,179,859
$38,481,154
$39,827,994
$41,221,974
$42,664,743
$44,158,009
$45,703,539
$47,303,163
$48,958,774
$50,672,331
$52,445,863
$54,281,468
$56,181,319
$58,147,666
$60,182,834
$62,289,233
$64,469,356
$66,725,784
$69,061,186
$71,478,328
$73,980,069
$76,569,371
$79,249,299
$82,023,025
$84,893,831
$87,865,115
$90,940,394
$94,123,308
$97,417,623
$100,827,240
$104,356,194
$108,008,660
$111,788,964
$115,701,577
$119,751,133
$123,942,422
$128,280,407
$132,770,221
$137,417,179
$142,226,780
$147,204,717
$152,356,883
$157,689,373
$163,208,502
$168,920,799
$174,833,027
Maintenance
$33,335,635
$34,502,383
$35,709,966
$36,959,815
$38,253,408
$39,592,278
$40,978,007
$42,412,238
$43,896,666
$45,433,049
$47,023,206
$48,669,018
$50,372,434
$52,135,469
$53,960,211
$55,848,818
$57,803,527
$59,826,650
$61,920,583
$64,087,803
$66,330,876
$68,652,457
$71,055,293
$73,542,228
$76,116,206
$78,780,273
$81,537,583
$84,391,398
$87,345,097
$90,402,176
$93,566,252
$96,841,071
$100,230,508
$103,738,576
$107,369,426
$111,127,356
$115,016,813
$119,042,402
$123,208,886
$127,521,197
$131,984,439
$136,603,894
$141,385,030
$146,333,507
$151,455,179
$156,756,111
$162,242,574
$167,921,064
$173,798,302
Net Revenue
$72,451,265
$73,974,630
$75,519,088
$77,084,339
$78,670,035
$80,275,783
$81,901,139
$83,545,605
$85,208,629
$86,446,745
$87,678,943
$88,903,613
$90,119,049
$91,323,445
$92,514,889
$93,691,356
$94,850,707
$95,990,681
$97,108,890
$98,202,813
$99,269,790
$100,307,016
$101,311,533
$102,280,227
$103,209,815
$104,096,841
$104,937,670
$105,728,475
$106,465,232
$107,143,712
$107,759,468
$108,307,829
$108,783,888
$109,182,494
$109,498,237
$109,725,442
$109,858,153
$109,890,124
$109,814,805
$109,625,327
$109,314,492
$108,874,757
$108,298,218
$107,576,595
$106,701,220
$105,663,013
$104,452,470
$103,059,644
$101,474,126
Page B-7
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-2 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 2
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
December 2007
$0.75 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$33,582,652
$3,446,559
$46,521,696
$4,802,800
$48,339,664
$5,019,924
$50,234,140
$5,247,261
$52,208,665
$5,485,318
$54,266,958
$5,734,626
$56,412,931
$5,995,746
$58,650,698
$6,269,266
$60,984,586
$6,555,808
$63,419,149
$6,856,025
$65,959,176
$7,170,607
$68,609,712
$7,500,279
$71,376,066
$7,845,806
$74,263,828
$8,207,995
$77,278,887
$8,587,696
$80,002,968
$8,959,977
$82,823,073
$9,348,535
$85,742,586
$9,754,088
$88,765,012
$10,177,384
$91,893,979
$10,619,204
$95,133,242
$11,080,366
$98,486,689
$11,561,722
$101,958,344
$12,064,163
$105,552,376
$12,588,617
$109,273,097
$13,136,058
$113,124,974
$13,707,497
$117,112,629
$14,303,996
$121,240,849
$14,926,660
$125,514,589
$15,576,644
$129,938,979
$16,255,155
$134,519,328
$16,963,454
$139,261,134
$17,702,857
$144,170,089
$18,474,737
$149,252,085
$19,280,532
$153,748,304
$20,022,128
$158,379,971
$20,792,523
$163,151,168
$21,592,845
$168,066,097
$22,424,265
$173,129,088
$23,288,000
$178,344,602
$24,185,317
$183,717,233
$25,117,530
$189,251,715
$26,086,007
$194,952,922
$27,092,169
$200,825,879
$28,137,492
$206,875,759
$29,223,514
$213,107,891
$30,351,828
$219,527,766
$31,524,094
$226,141,040
$32,742,037
$232,953,539
$34,007,449
$239,971,264
$35,322,192
Operations
$6,004,394
$6,214,548
$6,432,057
$6,657,179
$6,890,180
$7,131,337
$7,380,934
$7,639,266
$7,906,641
$8,183,373
$8,469,791
$8,766,234
$9,073,052
$9,390,609
$9,719,280
$10,059,455
$10,411,536
$10,775,939
$11,153,097
$11,543,456
$11,947,477
$12,365,638
$12,798,436
$13,246,381
$13,710,004
$14,189,854
$14,686,499
$15,200,527
$15,732,545
$16,283,184
$16,853,096
$17,442,954
$18,053,458
$18,685,329
$19,339,315
$20,016,191
$20,716,758
$21,441,844
$22,192,309
$22,969,040
$23,772,956
$24,605,010
$25,466,185
$26,357,501
$27,280,014
$28,234,814
$29,223,033
$30,245,839
$31,304,443
$32,400,099
Maintenance
$5,968,858
$6,177,768
$6,393,990
$6,617,780
$6,849,402
$7,089,131
$7,337,251
$7,594,054
$7,859,846
$8,134,941
$8,419,664
$8,714,352
$9,019,354
$9,335,032
$9,661,758
$9,999,919
$10,349,916
$10,712,164
$11,087,089
$11,475,137
$11,876,767
$12,292,454
$12,722,690
$13,167,984
$13,628,864
$14,105,874
$14,599,579
$15,110,565
$15,639,434
$16,186,815
$16,753,353
$17,339,720
$17,946,611
$18,574,742
$19,224,858
$19,897,728
$20,594,149
$21,314,944
$22,060,967
$22,833,101
$23,632,259
$24,459,388
$25,315,467
$26,201,508
$27,118,561
$28,067,711
$29,050,080
$30,066,833
$31,119,172
$32,208,343
Net Revenue
$18,162,841
$29,326,579
$30,493,693
$31,711,921
$32,983,765
$34,311,864
$35,699,001
$37,148,111
$38,662,292
$40,244,810
$41,899,115
$43,628,847
$45,437,853
$47,330,192
$49,310,154
$50,983,617
$52,713,086
$54,500,395
$56,347,442
$58,256,182
$60,228,631
$62,266,874
$64,373,056
$66,549,393
$68,798,172
$71,121,748
$73,522,555
$76,003,098
$78,565,966
$81,213,824
$83,949,424
$86,775,603
$89,695,283
$92,711,482
$95,162,002
$97,673,529
$100,247,416
$102,885,044
$105,587,812
$108,357,145
$111,194,488
$114,101,310
$117,079,102
$120,129,377
$123,253,670
$126,453,538
$129,730,558
$133,086,331
$136,522,474
$140,040,630
Page B-8
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-2 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 2 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
December 2007
$0.75 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$247,200,399
$36,688,204
$254,647,311
$38,107,496
$262,318,561
$39,582,162
$270,220,908
$41,114,377
$278,361,313
$42,706,401
$286,746,947
$44,360,585
$295,385,199
$46,079,372
$304,283,678
$47,865,301
$313,450,224
$49,721,013
$322,089,696
$51,520,770
$330,967,293
$53,386,270
$340,089,579
$55,319,931
$349,463,298
$57,324,262
$359,095,380
$59,401,864
$368,992,946
$61,555,433
$379,163,315
$63,787,767
$389,614,003
$66,101,765
$400,352,739
$68,500,435
$411,387,462
$70,986,898
$422,726,329
$73,564,386
$434,377,723
$76,236,255
$446,350,259
$79,005,984
$458,652,788
$81,877,178
$471,294,406
$84,853,581
$484,284,458
$87,939,071
$497,632,548
$91,137,672
$511,348,545
$94,453,556
$525,442,589
$97,891,051
$539,925,101
$101,454,645
$554,806,786
$105,148,991
$570,098,648
$108,978,916
$585,811,992
$112,949,426
$601,958,435
$117,065,711
$618,549,915
$121,333,157
$635,598,697
$125,757,346
$653,117,386
$130,344,069
$671,118,934
$135,099,331
$689,616,649
$140,029,362
$708,624,208
$145,140,621
$728,155,663
$150,439,807
$748,225,454
$155,933,868
$768,848,418
$161,630,012
$790,039,802
$167,535,710
$811,815,274
$173,658,715
$834,190,933
$180,007,067
$857,183,320
$186,589,101
$880,809,435
$193,413,467
$905,086,746
$200,489,134
$930,033,199
$207,825,402
Operations
$33,534,102
$34,707,796
$35,922,569
$37,179,859
$38,481,154
$39,827,994
$41,221,974
$42,664,743
$44,158,009
$45,703,539
$47,303,163
$48,958,774
$50,672,331
$52,445,863
$54,281,468
$56,181,319
$58,147,666
$60,182,834
$62,289,233
$64,469,356
$66,725,784
$69,061,186
$71,478,328
$73,980,069
$76,569,371
$79,249,299
$82,023,025
$84,893,831
$87,865,115
$90,940,394
$94,123,308
$97,417,623
$100,827,240
$104,356,194
$108,008,660
$111,788,964
$115,701,577
$119,751,133
$123,942,422
$128,280,407
$132,770,221
$137,417,179
$142,226,780
$147,204,717
$152,356,883
$157,689,373
$163,208,502
$168,920,799
$174,833,027
Maintenance
$33,335,635
$34,502,383
$35,709,966
$36,959,815
$38,253,408
$39,592,278
$40,978,007
$42,412,238
$43,896,666
$45,433,049
$47,023,206
$48,669,018
$50,372,434
$52,135,469
$53,960,211
$55,848,818
$57,803,527
$59,826,650
$61,920,583
$64,087,803
$66,330,876
$68,652,457
$71,055,293
$73,542,228
$76,116,206
$78,780,273
$81,537,583
$84,391,398
$87,345,097
$90,402,176
$93,566,252
$96,841,071
$100,230,508
$103,738,576
$107,369,426
$111,127,356
$115,016,813
$119,042,402
$123,208,886
$127,521,197
$131,984,439
$136,603,894
$141,385,030
$146,333,507
$151,455,179
$156,756,111
$162,242,574
$167,921,064
$173,798,302
Net Revenue
$143,642,457
$147,329,636
$151,103,864
$154,966,857
$158,920,349
$162,966,090
$167,105,845
$171,341,396
$175,674,536
$179,432,337
$183,254,654
$187,141,855
$191,094,270
$195,112,184
$199,195,835
$203,345,411
$207,561,047
$211,842,820
$216,190,748
$220,604,783
$225,084,808
$229,630,633
$234,241,989
$238,918,527
$243,659,809
$248,465,303
$253,334,381
$258,266,309
$263,260,244
$268,315,226
$273,430,173
$278,603,873
$283,834,976
$289,121,988
$294,463,264
$299,856,998
$305,301,212
$310,793,753
$316,332,279
$321,914,252
$327,536,925
$333,197,333
$338,892,281
$344,618,335
$350,371,804
$356,148,735
$361,944,892
$367,755,748
$373,576,468
Page B-9
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-3 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 3
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
December 2007
$1.00 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$40,408,862
$3,314,850
$56,145,626
$4,631,087
$58,514,407
$4,852,859
$60,989,764
$5,085,661
$63,576,898
$5,330,068
$66,281,287
$5,586,686
$69,108,702
$5,856,155
$72,065,224
$6,139,150
$75,157,263
$6,436,383
$78,391,575
$6,748,608
$81,775,286
$7,076,617
$85,315,910
$7,421,252
$89,021,374
$7,783,398
$92,900,040
$8,163,991
$96,960,735
$8,564,021
$100,378,601
$8,930,855
$103,916,946
$9,313,565
$107,580,019
$9,712,845
$111,372,214
$10,129,418
$115,298,085
$10,564,041
$119,362,342
$11,017,501
$123,569,865
$11,490,622
$127,925,703
$11,984,264
$132,435,084
$12,499,326
$137,103,421
$13,036,743
$141,936,316
$13,597,495
$146,939,571
$14,182,603
$152,119,191
$14,793,134
$157,481,393
$15,430,202
$163,032,612
$16,094,969
$168,779,511
$16,788,650
$174,728,989
$17,512,513
$180,888,186
$18,267,880
$187,264,494
$19,056,135
$192,905,837
$19,780,311
$198,717,126
$20,532,334
$204,703,479
$21,313,284
$210,870,171
$22,124,285
$217,222,635
$22,966,505
$223,766,467
$23,841,157
$230,507,432
$24,749,500
$237,451,468
$25,692,846
$244,604,694
$26,672,556
$251,973,410
$27,690,044
$259,564,109
$28,746,780
$267,383,478
$29,844,292
$275,438,405
$30,984,168
$283,735,987
$32,168,058
$292,283,534
$33,397,675
$301,088,575
$34,674,803
Operations
$6,004,394
$6,214,548
$6,432,057
$6,657,179
$6,890,180
$7,131,337
$7,380,934
$7,639,266
$7,906,641
$8,183,373
$8,469,791
$8,766,234
$9,073,052
$9,390,609
$9,719,280
$10,059,455
$10,411,536
$10,775,939
$11,153,097
$11,543,456
$11,947,477
$12,365,638
$12,798,436
$13,246,381
$13,710,004
$14,189,854
$14,686,499
$15,200,527
$15,732,545
$16,283,184
$16,853,096
$17,442,954
$18,053,458
$18,685,329
$19,339,315
$20,016,191
$20,716,758
$21,441,844
$22,192,309
$22,969,040
$23,772,956
$24,605,010
$25,466,185
$26,357,501
$27,280,014
$28,234,814
$29,223,033
$30,245,839
$31,304,443
$32,400,099
Maintenance
$5,968,858
$6,177,768
$6,393,990
$6,617,780
$6,849,402
$7,089,131
$7,337,251
$7,594,054
$7,859,846
$8,134,941
$8,419,664
$8,714,352
$9,019,354
$9,335,032
$9,661,758
$9,999,919
$10,349,916
$10,712,164
$11,087,089
$11,475,137
$11,876,767
$12,292,454
$12,722,690
$13,167,984
$13,628,864
$14,105,874
$14,599,579
$15,110,565
$15,639,434
$16,186,815
$16,753,353
$17,339,720
$17,946,611
$18,574,742
$19,224,858
$19,897,728
$20,594,149
$21,314,944
$22,060,967
$22,833,101
$23,632,259
$24,459,388
$25,315,467
$26,201,508
$27,118,561
$28,067,711
$29,050,080
$30,066,833
$31,119,172
$32,208,343
Net Revenue
$25,120,760
$39,122,223
$40,835,501
$42,629,144
$44,507,247
$46,474,133
$48,534,362
$50,692,753
$52,954,393
$55,324,654
$57,809,214
$60,414,073
$63,145,570
$66,010,408
$69,015,676
$71,388,371
$73,841,929
$76,379,071
$79,002,609
$81,715,451
$84,520,598
$87,421,151
$90,420,313
$93,521,393
$96,727,810
$100,043,093
$103,470,889
$107,014,965
$110,679,211
$114,467,643
$118,384,412
$122,433,802
$126,620,237
$130,948,288
$134,561,353
$138,270,872
$142,079,289
$145,989,098
$150,002,854
$154,123,170
$158,352,716
$162,694,224
$167,150,486
$171,724,357
$176,418,755
$181,236,661
$186,181,124
$191,255,257
$196,462,243
$201,805,330
Page B-10
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-3 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 3 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
December 2007
$1.00 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$310,158,869
$36,001,292
$319,502,405
$37,379,068
$329,127,415
$38,810,130
$339,042,378
$40,296,557
$349,256,030
$41,840,509
$359,777,367
$43,444,231
$370,615,661
$45,110,056
$381,780,457
$46,840,410
$393,281,594
$48,637,812
$404,121,418
$50,379,247
$415,260,014
$52,183,748
$426,705,618
$54,053,619
$438,466,692
$55,991,250
$450,551,930
$57,999,117
$462,970,268
$60,079,789
$475,730,886
$62,235,930
$488,843,218
$64,470,301
$502,316,960
$66,785,764
$516,162,071
$69,185,288
$530,388,788
$71,671,950
$545,007,629
$74,248,943
$560,029,402
$76,919,573
$575,465,212
$79,687,273
$591,326,472
$82,555,600
$607,624,908
$85,528,241
$624,372,569
$88,609,022
$641,581,838
$91,801,909
$659,265,438
$95,111,012
$677,436,441
$98,540,596
$696,108,283
$102,095,082
$715,294,768
$105,779,055
$735,010,080
$109,597,266
$755,268,795
$113,554,647
$776,085,891
$117,656,308
$797,476,759
$121,907,549
$819,457,212
$126,313,865
$842,043,501
$130,880,956
$865,252,325
$135,614,732
$889,100,842
$140,521,319
$913,606,684
$145,607,073
$938,787,968
$150,878,583
$964,663,312
$156,342,682
$991,251,844
$162,006,456
$1,018,573,223
$167,877,253
$1,046,647,648
$173,962,693
$1,075,495,874
$180,270,677
$1,105,139,229
$186,809,401
$1,135,599,629
$193,587,361
$1,166,899,593
$200,613,369
Operations
$33,534,102
$34,707,796
$35,922,569
$37,179,859
$38,481,154
$39,827,994
$41,221,974
$42,664,743
$44,158,009
$45,703,539
$47,303,163
$48,958,774
$50,672,331
$52,445,863
$54,281,468
$56,181,319
$58,147,666
$60,182,834
$62,289,233
$64,469,356
$66,725,784
$69,061,186
$71,478,328
$73,980,069
$76,569,371
$79,249,299
$82,023,025
$84,893,831
$87,865,115
$90,940,394
$94,123,308
$97,417,623
$100,827,240
$104,356,194
$108,008,660
$111,788,964
$115,701,577
$119,751,133
$123,942,422
$128,280,407
$132,770,221
$137,417,179
$142,226,780
$147,204,717
$152,356,883
$157,689,373
$163,208,502
$168,920,799
$174,833,027
Maintenance
$33,335,635
$34,502,383
$35,709,966
$36,959,815
$38,253,408
$39,592,278
$40,978,007
$42,412,238
$43,896,666
$45,433,049
$47,023,206
$48,669,018
$50,372,434
$52,135,469
$53,960,211
$55,848,818
$57,803,527
$59,826,650
$61,920,583
$64,087,803
$66,330,876
$68,652,457
$71,055,293
$73,542,228
$76,116,206
$78,780,273
$81,537,583
$84,391,398
$87,345,097
$90,402,176
$93,566,252
$96,841,071
$100,230,508
$103,738,576
$107,369,426
$111,127,356
$115,016,813
$119,042,402
$123,208,886
$127,521,197
$131,984,439
$136,603,894
$141,385,030
$146,333,507
$151,455,179
$156,756,111
$162,242,574
$167,921,064
$173,798,302
Net Revenue
$207,287,838
$212,913,158
$218,684,749
$224,606,147
$230,680,958
$236,912,864
$243,305,623
$249,863,067
$256,589,107
$262,605,582
$268,749,897
$275,024,207
$281,430,677
$287,971,481
$294,648,800
$301,464,818
$308,421,725
$315,521,712
$322,766,967
$330,159,678
$337,702,026
$345,396,185
$353,244,318
$361,248,575
$369,411,089
$377,733,974
$386,219,322
$394,869,196
$403,685,633
$412,670,631
$421,826,154
$431,154,119
$440,656,399
$450,334,814
$460,191,123
$470,227,027
$480,444,154
$490,844,059
$501,428,215
$512,198,008
$523,154,726
$534,299,557
$545,633,578
$557,157,746
$568,872,893
$580,779,712
$592,878,752
$605,170,404
$617,654,895
Page B-11
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-4 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 4
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
December 2007
$1.50 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$50,603,537
$3,112,578
$70,648,218
$4,366,569
$73,981,656
$4,594,690
$77,479,860
$4,835,117
$81,151,450
$5,088,541
$85,005,524
$5,355,689
$89,051,686
$5,637,335
$93,300,081
$5,934,295
$97,761,421
$6,247,435
$102,447,025
$6,577,671
$107,368,849
$6,925,973
$112,539,528
$7,293,371
$117,972,417
$7,680,952
$123,681,632
$8,089,871
$129,682,099
$8,521,352
$134,253,393
$8,878,980
$138,985,825
$9,251,811
$143,885,075
$9,640,498
$148,957,024
$10,045,723
$154,207,759
$10,468,198
$159,643,583
$10,908,666
$165,271,019
$11,367,901
$171,096,823
$11,846,712
$177,127,986
$12,345,943
$183,371,747
$12,866,474
$189,835,601
$13,409,223
$196,527,306
$13,975,150
$203,454,894
$14,565,255
$210,626,679
$15,180,581
$218,051,269
$15,822,219
$225,737,576
$16,491,306
$233,694,826
$17,189,028
$241,932,569
$17,916,623
$250,460,692
$18,675,385
$258,005,820
$19,370,291
$265,778,245
$20,091,448
$273,784,815
$20,839,858
$282,032,583
$21,616,566
$290,528,814
$22,422,654
$299,280,995
$23,259,248
$308,296,835
$24,127,517
$317,584,277
$25,028,676
$327,151,503
$25,963,985
$337,006,942
$26,934,755
$347,159,276
$27,942,346
$357,617,449
$28,988,173
$368,390,675
$30,073,704
$379,488,444
$31,200,464
$390,920,534
$32,370,038
$402,697,015
$33,584,071
Operations
$6,004,394
$6,214,548
$6,432,057
$6,657,179
$6,890,180
$7,131,337
$7,380,934
$7,639,266
$7,906,641
$8,183,373
$8,469,791
$8,766,234
$9,073,052
$9,390,609
$9,719,280
$10,059,455
$10,411,536
$10,775,939
$11,153,097
$11,543,456
$11,947,477
$12,365,638
$12,798,436
$13,246,381
$13,710,004
$14,189,854
$14,686,499
$15,200,527
$15,732,545
$16,283,184
$16,853,096
$17,442,954
$18,053,458
$18,685,329
$19,339,315
$20,016,191
$20,716,758
$21,441,844
$22,192,309
$22,969,040
$23,772,956
$24,605,010
$25,466,185
$26,357,501
$27,280,014
$28,234,814
$29,223,033
$30,245,839
$31,304,443
$32,400,099
Maintenance
$5,968,858
$6,177,768
$6,393,990
$6,617,780
$6,849,402
$7,089,131
$7,337,251
$7,594,054
$7,859,846
$8,134,941
$8,419,664
$8,714,352
$9,019,354
$9,335,032
$9,661,758
$9,999,919
$10,349,916
$10,712,164
$11,087,089
$11,475,137
$11,876,767
$12,292,454
$12,722,690
$13,167,984
$13,628,864
$14,105,874
$14,599,579
$15,110,565
$15,639,434
$16,186,815
$16,753,353
$17,339,720
$17,946,611
$18,574,742
$19,224,858
$19,897,728
$20,594,149
$21,314,944
$22,060,967
$22,833,101
$23,632,259
$24,459,388
$25,315,467
$26,201,508
$27,118,561
$28,067,711
$29,050,080
$30,066,833
$31,119,172
$32,208,343
Net Revenue
$35,517,707
$53,889,333
$56,560,919
$59,369,784
$62,323,327
$65,429,367
$68,696,167
$72,132,465
$75,747,500
$79,551,041
$83,553,421
$87,765,571
$92,199,058
$96,866,120
$101,779,709
$105,315,039
$108,972,562
$112,756,475
$116,671,115
$120,720,968
$124,910,673
$129,245,025
$133,728,985
$138,367,677
$143,166,406
$148,130,650
$153,266,078
$158,578,548
$164,074,118
$169,759,051
$175,639,821
$181,723,123
$188,015,877
$194,525,236
$200,071,355
$205,772,878
$211,634,050
$217,659,229
$223,852,885
$230,219,606
$236,764,102
$243,491,203
$250,405,866
$257,513,178
$264,818,355
$272,326,751
$280,043,858
$287,975,308
$296,126,880
$304,504,501
Page B-12
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-4 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 4 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
December 2007
$1.50 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$414,828,262
$34,844,275
$427,324,964
$36,152,425
$440,198,128
$37,510,367
$453,459,097
$38,920,019
$467,119,552
$40,383,371
$481,191,529
$41,902,492
$495,687,423
$43,479,533
$510,620,007
$45,116,727
$526,002,435
$46,816,394
$540,500,377
$48,460,095
$555,397,918
$50,162,382
$570,706,074
$51,925,367
$586,436,160
$53,751,243
$602,599,806
$55,642,279
$619,208,963
$57,600,830
$636,275,911
$59,629,334
$653,813,265
$61,730,321
$671,833,993
$63,906,411
$690,351,418
$66,160,320
$709,379,229
$68,494,864
$728,931,494
$70,912,962
$749,022,668
$73,417,637
$769,667,605
$76,012,025
$790,881,569
$78,699,377
$812,680,242
$81,483,061
$835,079,741
$84,366,569
$858,096,627
$87,353,520
$881,747,915
$90,447,668
$906,051,092
$93,652,900
$931,024,125
$96,973,249
$956,685,477
$100,412,893
$983,054,121
$103,976,166
$1,010,149,550
$107,667,557
$1,037,991,797
$111,491,723
$1,066,601,446
$115,453,489
$1,095,999,648
$119,557,858
$1,126,208,139
$123,810,017
$1,157,249,250
$128,215,340
$1,189,145,933
$132,779,403
$1,221,921,768
$137,507,983
$1,255,600,986
$142,407,069
$1,290,208,489
$147,482,872
$1,325,769,860
$152,741,829
$1,362,311,392
$158,190,614
$1,399,860,100
$163,836,146
$1,438,443,744
$169,685,598
$1,478,090,849
$175,746,407
$1,518,830,728
$182,026,282
$1,560,693,500
$188,533,217
Operations
$33,534,102
$34,707,796
$35,922,569
$37,179,859
$38,481,154
$39,827,994
$41,221,974
$42,664,743
$44,158,009
$45,703,539
$47,303,163
$48,958,774
$50,672,331
$52,445,863
$54,281,468
$56,181,319
$58,147,666
$60,182,834
$62,289,233
$64,469,356
$66,725,784
$69,061,186
$71,478,328
$73,980,069
$76,569,371
$79,249,299
$82,023,025
$84,893,831
$87,865,115
$90,940,394
$94,123,308
$97,417,623
$100,827,240
$104,356,194
$108,008,660
$111,788,964
$115,701,577
$119,751,133
$123,942,422
$128,280,407
$132,770,221
$137,417,179
$142,226,780
$147,204,717
$152,356,883
$157,689,373
$163,208,502
$168,920,799
$174,833,027
Maintenance
$33,335,635
$34,502,383
$35,709,966
$36,959,815
$38,253,408
$39,592,278
$40,978,007
$42,412,238
$43,896,666
$45,433,049
$47,023,206
$48,669,018
$50,372,434
$52,135,469
$53,960,211
$55,848,818
$57,803,527
$59,826,650
$61,920,583
$64,087,803
$66,330,876
$68,652,457
$71,055,293
$73,542,228
$76,116,206
$78,780,273
$81,537,583
$84,391,398
$87,345,097
$90,402,176
$93,566,252
$96,841,071
$100,230,508
$103,738,576
$107,369,426
$111,127,356
$115,016,813
$119,042,402
$123,208,886
$127,521,197
$131,984,439
$136,603,894
$141,385,030
$146,333,507
$151,455,179
$156,756,111
$162,242,574
$167,921,064
$173,798,302
Net Revenue
$313,114,249
$321,962,360
$331,055,226
$340,399,404
$350,001,619
$359,868,764
$370,007,908
$380,426,299
$391,131,366
$400,903,693
$410,909,167
$421,152,914
$431,640,152
$442,376,196
$453,366,455
$464,616,439
$476,131,752
$487,918,098
$499,981,282
$512,327,205
$524,961,872
$537,891,389
$551,121,960
$564,659,895
$578,511,604
$592,683,600
$607,182,498
$622,015,018
$637,187,980
$652,708,307
$668,583,025
$684,819,261
$701,424,244
$718,405,304
$735,769,870
$753,525,471
$771,679,731
$790,240,376
$809,215,222
$828,612,181
$848,439,257
$868,704,543
$889,416,220
$910,582,554
$932,211,892
$954,312,661
$976,893,367
$999,962,583
$1,023,528,955
Page B-13
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-5 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 5
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
December 2007
$2.00 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$55,391,744
$2,840,013
$77,608,608
$3,996,018
$81,559,943
$4,217,272
$85,720,659
$4,451,149
$90,102,394
$4,698,394
$94,717,468
$4,959,797
$99,578,924
$5,236,197
$104,700,573
$5,528,485
$110,097,043
$5,837,607
$115,783,827
$6,164,567
$121,777,340
$6,510,432
$128,094,976
$6,876,333
$134,755,166
$7,263,474
$141,777,448
$7,673,134
$149,182,534
$8,106,670
$154,441,219
$8,441,159
$159,885,272
$8,789,649
$165,521,227
$9,152,733
$171,355,851
$9,531,031
$177,396,144
$9,925,188
$183,649,359
$10,335,878
$190,122,998
$10,763,803
$196,824,834
$11,209,696
$203,762,909
$11,674,321
$210,945,552
$12,158,476
$218,381,383
$12,662,990
$226,079,326
$13,188,733
$234,048,623
$13,736,607
$242,298,837
$14,307,556
$250,839,871
$14,902,565
$259,681,976
$15,522,660
$268,835,766
$16,168,911
$278,312,227
$16,842,436
$288,122,733
$17,544,400
$296,802,430
$18,185,542
$305,743,603
$18,850,523
$314,954,129
$19,540,243
$324,442,122
$20,255,636
$334,215,941
$20,997,672
$344,284,196
$21,767,358
$354,655,758
$22,565,740
$365,339,763
$23,393,905
$376,345,623
$24,252,978
$387,683,035
$25,144,132
$399,361,986
$26,068,580
$411,392,766
$27,027,587
$423,785,973
$28,022,461
$436,552,526
$29,054,564
$449,703,670
$30,125,310
$463,250,993
$31,236,165
Operations
$6,004,394
$6,214,548
$6,432,057
$6,657,179
$6,890,180
$7,131,337
$7,380,934
$7,639,266
$7,906,641
$8,183,373
$8,469,791
$8,766,234
$9,073,052
$9,390,609
$9,719,280
$10,059,455
$10,411,536
$10,775,939
$11,153,097
$11,543,456
$11,947,477
$12,365,638
$12,798,436
$13,246,381
$13,710,004
$14,189,854
$14,686,499
$15,200,527
$15,732,545
$16,283,184
$16,853,096
$17,442,954
$18,053,458
$18,685,329
$19,339,315
$20,016,191
$20,716,758
$21,441,844
$22,192,309
$22,969,040
$23,772,956
$24,605,010
$25,466,185
$26,357,501
$27,280,014
$28,234,814
$29,223,033
$30,245,839
$31,304,443
$32,400,099
Maintenance
$5,968,858
$6,177,768
$6,393,990
$6,617,780
$6,849,402
$7,089,131
$7,337,251
$7,594,054
$7,859,846
$8,134,941
$8,419,664
$8,714,352
$9,019,354
$9,335,032
$9,661,758
$9,999,919
$10,349,916
$10,712,164
$11,087,089
$11,475,137
$11,876,767
$12,292,454
$12,722,690
$13,167,984
$13,628,864
$14,105,874
$14,599,579
$15,110,565
$15,639,434
$16,186,815
$16,753,353
$17,339,720
$17,946,611
$18,574,742
$19,224,858
$19,897,728
$20,594,149
$21,314,944
$22,060,967
$22,833,101
$23,632,259
$24,459,388
$25,315,467
$26,201,508
$27,118,561
$28,067,711
$29,050,080
$30,066,833
$31,119,172
$32,208,343
Net Revenue
$40,578,479
$61,220,275
$64,516,624
$67,994,551
$71,664,418
$75,537,204
$79,624,543
$83,938,767
$88,492,949
$93,300,946
$98,377,454
$103,738,057
$109,399,285
$115,378,674
$121,694,826
$125,940,685
$130,334,170
$134,880,391
$139,584,633
$144,452,363
$149,489,237
$154,701,103
$160,094,012
$165,674,223
$171,448,209
$177,422,664
$183,604,515
$190,000,924
$196,619,301
$203,467,306
$210,552,867
$217,884,180
$225,469,722
$233,318,262
$240,052,715
$246,979,161
$254,102,980
$261,429,698
$268,964,994
$276,714,698
$284,684,802
$292,881,460
$301,310,993
$309,979,894
$318,894,831
$328,062,654
$337,490,399
$347,185,289
$357,154,745
$367,406,386
Page B-14
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-5 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 5 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
December 2007
$2.00 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$477,206,430
$32,388,653
$491,582,273
$33,584,356
$506,391,189
$34,824,919
$521,646,224
$36,112,047
$537,360,816
$37,447,513
$553,548,811
$38,833,156
$570,224,469
$40,270,888
$587,402,481
$41,762,695
$605,097,981
$43,310,636
$621,775,994
$44,805,120
$638,913,695
$46,352,100
$656,523,753
$47,953,447
$674,619,189
$49,611,101
$693,213,381
$51,327,071
$712,320,075
$53,103,439
$731,953,397
$54,942,363
$752,127,862
$56,846,076
$772,858,386
$58,816,896
$794,160,296
$60,857,223
$816,049,339
$62,969,541
$838,541,699
$65,156,429
$861,654,004
$67,420,556
$885,403,343
$69,764,689
$909,807,272
$72,191,693
$934,883,835
$74,704,540
$960,651,571
$77,306,309
$987,129,530
$80,000,188
$1,014,337,287
$82,789,484
$1,042,294,959
$85,677,621
$1,071,023,214
$88,668,151
$1,100,543,291
$91,764,751
$1,130,877,016
$94,971,233
$1,162,046,813
$98,291,550
$1,194,075,729
$101,729,794
$1,226,987,441
$105,290,209
$1,260,806,282
$108,977,193
$1,295,557,255
$112,795,302
$1,331,266,052
$116,749,260
$1,367,959,073
$120,843,963
$1,405,663,445
$125,084,482
$1,444,407,043
$129,476,075
$1,484,218,513
$134,024,193
$1,525,127,285
$138,734,483
$1,567,163,606
$143,612,799
$1,610,358,553
$148,665,207
$1,654,744,061
$153,897,996
$1,700,352,944
$159,317,683
$1,747,218,922
$164,931,024
$1,795,376,643
$170,745,019
Operations
$33,534,102
$34,707,796
$35,922,569
$37,179,859
$38,481,154
$39,827,994
$41,221,974
$42,664,743
$44,158,009
$45,703,539
$47,303,163
$48,958,774
$50,672,331
$52,445,863
$54,281,468
$56,181,319
$58,147,666
$60,182,834
$62,289,233
$64,469,356
$66,725,784
$69,061,186
$71,478,328
$73,980,069
$76,569,371
$79,249,299
$82,023,025
$84,893,831
$87,865,115
$90,940,394
$94,123,308
$97,417,623
$100,827,240
$104,356,194
$108,008,660
$111,788,964
$115,701,577
$119,751,133
$123,942,422
$128,280,407
$132,770,221
$137,417,179
$142,226,780
$147,204,717
$152,356,883
$157,689,373
$163,208,502
$168,920,799
$174,833,027
Maintenance
$33,335,635
$34,502,383
$35,709,966
$36,959,815
$38,253,408
$39,592,278
$40,978,007
$42,412,238
$43,896,666
$45,433,049
$47,023,206
$48,669,018
$50,372,434
$52,135,469
$53,960,211
$55,848,818
$57,803,527
$59,826,650
$61,920,583
$64,087,803
$66,330,876
$68,652,457
$71,055,293
$73,542,228
$76,116,206
$78,780,273
$81,537,583
$84,391,398
$87,345,097
$90,402,176
$93,566,252
$96,841,071
$100,230,508
$103,738,576
$107,369,426
$111,127,356
$115,016,813
$119,042,402
$123,208,886
$127,521,197
$131,984,439
$136,603,894
$141,385,030
$146,333,507
$151,455,179
$156,756,111
$162,242,574
$167,921,064
$173,798,302
Net Revenue
$377,948,039
$388,787,738
$399,933,735
$411,394,503
$423,178,741
$435,295,383
$447,753,599
$460,562,805
$473,732,669
$485,834,285
$498,235,225
$510,942,514
$523,963,323
$537,304,978
$550,974,957
$564,980,897
$579,330,594
$594,032,006
$609,093,257
$624,522,638
$640,328,609
$656,519,805
$673,105,033
$690,093,282
$707,493,717
$725,315,689
$743,568,734
$762,262,575
$781,407,126
$801,012,494
$821,088,981
$841,647,088
$862,697,515
$884,251,165
$906,319,145
$928,912,770
$952,043,563
$975,723,257
$999,963,802
$1,024,777,359
$1,050,176,308
$1,076,173,246
$1,102,780,991
$1,130,012,583
$1,157,881,284
$1,186,400,581
$1,215,584,185
$1,245,446,034
$1,276,000,295
Page B-15
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-6 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 1
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
December 2007
$0.50 auto toll alternative
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$27,238,506
$4,382,019
$37,648,391
$6,102,538
$39,029,665
$6,374,182
$40,463,884
$6,658,171
$41,953,191
$6,955,079
$43,499,818
$7,265,507
$45,106,095
$7,590,085
$46,774,454
$7,929,473
$48,507,429
$8,284,362
$50,307,665
$8,655,477
$52,177,924
$9,043,577
$54,121,086
$9,449,458
$56,140,158
$9,873,953
$58,238,278
$10,317,936
$60,418,723
$10,782,325
$62,548,483
$11,257,878
$64,753,317
$11,754,524
$67,035,871
$12,273,204
$69,398,886
$12,814,898
$71,845,196
$13,380,634
$74,377,740
$13,971,481
$76,999,555
$14,588,561
$79,713,789
$15,233,043
$82,523,700
$15,906,149
$85,432,661
$16,609,156
$88,444,162
$17,343,399
$91,561,819
$18,110,269
$94,789,373
$18,911,225
$98,130,698
$19,747,787
$101,589,805
$20,621,544
$105,170,846
$21,534,158
$108,878,118
$22,487,363
$112,716,072
$23,482,973
$116,689,314
$24,522,880
$120,204,579
$25,482,287
$123,825,742
$26,479,460
$127,555,993
$27,515,895
$131,398,617
$28,593,143
$135,357,000
$29,712,820
$139,434,630
$30,876,605
$143,635,098
$32,086,244
$147,962,105
$33,343,551
$152,419,464
$34,650,414
$157,011,100
$36,008,794
$161,741,059
$37,420,733
$166,613,509
$38,888,350
$171,632,741
$40,413,851
$176,803,177
$41,999,529
$182,129,373
$43,647,769
$187,616,020
$45,361,049
Operations
$6,004,394
$6,214,548
$6,432,057
$6,657,179
$6,890,180
$7,131,337
$7,380,934
$7,639,266
$7,906,641
$8,183,373
$8,469,791
$8,766,234
$9,073,052
$9,390,609
$9,719,280
$10,059,455
$10,411,536
$10,775,939
$11,153,097
$11,543,456
$11,947,477
$12,365,638
$12,798,436
$13,246,381
$13,710,004
$14,189,854
$14,686,499
$15,200,527
$15,732,545
$16,283,184
$16,853,096
$17,442,954
$18,053,458
$18,685,329
$19,339,315
$20,016,191
$20,716,758
$21,441,844
$22,192,309
$22,969,040
$23,772,956
$24,605,010
$25,466,185
$26,357,501
$27,280,014
$28,234,814
$29,223,033
$30,245,839
$31,304,443
$32,400,099
Maintenance
$5,968,858
$6,177,768
$6,393,990
$6,617,780
$6,849,402
$7,089,131
$7,337,251
$7,594,054
$7,859,846
$8,134,941
$8,419,664
$8,714,352
$9,019,354
$9,335,032
$9,661,758
$9,999,919
$10,349,916
$10,712,164
$11,087,089
$11,475,137
$11,876,767
$12,292,454
$12,722,690
$13,167,984
$13,628,864
$14,105,874
$14,599,579
$15,110,565
$15,639,434
$16,186,815
$16,753,353
$17,339,720
$17,946,611
$18,574,742
$19,224,858
$19,897,728
$20,594,149
$21,314,944
$22,060,967
$22,833,101
$23,632,259
$24,459,388
$25,315,467
$26,201,508
$27,118,561
$28,067,711
$29,050,080
$30,066,833
$31,119,172
$32,208,343
Net Revenue
$10,883,235
$19,153,537
$19,829,436
$20,530,755
$21,258,530
$22,013,843
$22,797,826
$23,611,660
$24,456,580
$25,333,874
$26,244,892
$27,191,043
$28,173,799
$29,194,701
$30,255,360
$31,231,231
$32,237,340
$33,274,564
$34,343,801
$35,445,970
$36,582,014
$37,752,901
$38,959,620
$40,203,186
$41,484,636
$42,805,035
$44,165,471
$45,567,056
$47,010,932
$48,498,262
$50,030,239
$51,608,080
$53,233,031
$54,906,363
$56,158,119
$57,432,363
$58,729,191
$60,048,686
$61,390,904
$62,755,884
$64,143,639
$65,554,156
$66,987,398
$68,443,296
$69,921,752
$71,422,634
$72,945,777
$74,490,976
$76,057,988
$77,646,528
Page B-16
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-6 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 1 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
December 2007
$0.50 auto toll alternative
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$193,267,953
$47,141,948
$199,090,150
$48,993,144
$205,087,741
$50,917,425
$211,266,009
$52,917,687
$217,630,397
$54,996,944
$224,186,513
$57,158,329
$230,940,132
$59,405,097
$237,897,203
$61,740,636
$245,063,857
$64,168,467
$251,818,429
$66,526,350
$258,759,175
$68,971,371
$265,891,224
$71,506,763
$273,219,851
$74,135,881
$280,750,473
$76,862,205
$288,488,658
$79,689,343
$296,440,127
$82,621,040
$304,610,758
$85,661,179
$313,006,592
$88,813,786
$321,633,836
$92,083,041
$330,498,869
$95,473,276
$339,608,244
$98,988,986
$348,968,696
$102,634,834
$358,587,146
$106,415,656
$368,470,704
$110,336,468
$378,626,678
$114,402,474
$389,062,575
$118,619,071
$399,786,113
$122,991,857
$410,805,217
$127,526,641
$422,128,036
$132,229,445
$433,762,940
$137,106,519
$445,718,531
$142,164,344
$458,003,648
$147,409,643
$470,627,374
$152,849,391
$483,599,041
$158,490,820
$496,928,239
$164,341,436
$510,624,824
$170,409,022
$524,698,921
$176,701,653
$539,160,935
$183,227,704
$554,021,558
$189,995,863
$569,291,777
$197,015,144
$584,982,882
$204,294,893
$601,106,472
$211,844,809
$617,674,469
$219,674,952
$634,699,122
$227,795,756
$652,193,017
$236,218,046
$670,169,087
$244,953,051
$688,640,622
$254,012,418
$707,621,279
$263,408,230
$727,125,091
$273,153,021
Operations
$33,534,102
$34,707,796
$35,922,569
$37,179,859
$38,481,154
$39,827,994
$41,221,974
$42,664,743
$44,158,009
$45,703,539
$47,303,163
$48,958,774
$50,672,331
$52,445,863
$54,281,468
$56,181,319
$58,147,666
$60,182,834
$62,289,233
$64,469,356
$66,725,784
$69,061,186
$71,478,328
$73,980,069
$76,569,371
$79,249,299
$82,023,025
$84,893,831
$87,865,115
$90,940,394
$94,123,308
$97,417,623
$100,827,240
$104,356,194
$108,008,660
$111,788,964
$115,701,577
$119,751,133
$123,942,422
$128,280,407
$132,770,221
$137,417,179
$142,226,780
$147,204,717
$152,356,883
$157,689,373
$163,208,502
$168,920,799
$174,833,027
Maintenance
$33,335,635
$34,502,383
$35,709,966
$36,959,815
$38,253,408
$39,592,278
$40,978,007
$42,412,238
$43,896,666
$45,433,049
$47,023,206
$48,669,018
$50,372,434
$52,135,469
$53,960,211
$55,848,818
$57,803,527
$59,826,650
$61,920,583
$64,087,803
$66,330,876
$68,652,457
$71,055,293
$73,542,228
$76,116,206
$78,780,273
$81,537,583
$84,391,398
$87,345,097
$90,402,176
$93,566,252
$96,841,071
$100,230,508
$103,738,576
$107,369,426
$111,127,356
$115,016,813
$119,042,402
$123,208,886
$127,521,197
$131,984,439
$136,603,894
$141,385,030
$146,333,507
$151,455,179
$156,756,111
$162,242,574
$167,921,064
$173,798,302
Net Revenue
$79,256,267
$80,886,827
$82,537,781
$84,208,648
$85,898,891
$87,607,912
$89,335,053
$91,079,587
$92,840,715
$94,155,490
$95,461,434
$96,756,669
$98,039,205
$99,306,937
$100,557,636
$101,788,949
$102,998,387
$104,183,322
$105,340,979
$106,468,433
$107,562,598
$108,620,219
$109,637,869
$110,611,939
$111,538,626
$112,413,932
$113,233,648
$113,993,347
$114,688,379
$115,313,851
$115,864,628
$116,335,311
$116,720,235
$117,013,451
$117,208,717
$117,299,482
$117,278,877
$117,139,696
$116,874,386
$116,475,030
$115,933,329
$115,240,590
$114,387,707
$113,365,142
$112,162,909
$110,770,552
$109,177,128
$107,371,186
$105,340,741
Page B-17
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-7 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 2
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
December 2007
$0.75 auto toll alternative
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$36,723,969
$4,151,972
$50,885,017
$5,791,092
$52,883,873
$6,058,275
$54,965,328
$6,338,099
$57,133,014
$6,631,178
$59,390,733
$6,938,157
$61,742,466
$7,259,714
$64,192,383
$7,596,561
$66,744,851
$7,949,445
$69,404,446
$8,319,150
$72,175,961
$8,706,502
$75,064,421
$9,112,368
$78,075,088
$9,537,657
$81,213,482
$9,983,325
$84,485,387
$10,450,378
$87,463,497
$10,905,530
$90,546,585
$11,380,661
$93,738,352
$11,876,655
$97,042,629
$12,394,433
$100,463,382
$12,934,957
$104,004,716
$13,499,235
$107,670,882
$14,088,315
$111,466,281
$14,703,296
$115,395,467
$15,345,322
$119,463,157
$16,015,592
$123,674,233
$16,715,354
$128,033,750
$17,445,915
$132,546,940
$18,208,638
$137,219,219
$19,004,948
$142,056,197
$19,836,332
$147,063,678
$20,704,345
$152,247,673
$21,610,609
$157,614,403
$22,556,821
$163,170,311
$23,544,751
$168,085,816
$24,454,585
$173,149,402
$25,399,884
$178,365,527
$26,382,041
$183,738,789
$27,402,503
$189,273,920
$28,462,773
$194,975,797
$29,564,417
$200,849,442
$30,709,058
$206,900,032
$31,898,387
$213,132,895
$33,134,159
$219,553,524
$34,418,200
$226,167,574
$35,752,408
$232,980,872
$37,138,755
$239,999,421
$38,579,293
$247,229,403
$40,076,152
$254,677,189
$41,631,549
$262,349,339
$43,247,787
Operations
$6,004,394
$6,214,548
$6,432,057
$6,657,179
$6,890,180
$7,131,337
$7,380,934
$7,639,266
$7,906,641
$8,183,373
$8,469,791
$8,766,234
$9,073,052
$9,390,609
$9,719,280
$10,059,455
$10,411,536
$10,775,939
$11,153,097
$11,543,456
$11,947,477
$12,365,638
$12,798,436
$13,246,381
$13,710,004
$14,189,854
$14,686,499
$15,200,527
$15,732,545
$16,283,184
$16,853,096
$17,442,954
$18,053,458
$18,685,329
$19,339,315
$20,016,191
$20,716,758
$21,441,844
$22,192,309
$22,969,040
$23,772,956
$24,605,010
$25,466,185
$26,357,501
$27,280,014
$28,234,814
$29,223,033
$30,245,839
$31,304,443
$32,400,099
Maintenance
$5,968,858
$6,177,768
$6,393,990
$6,617,780
$6,849,402
$7,089,131
$7,337,251
$7,594,054
$7,859,846
$8,134,941
$8,419,664
$8,714,352
$9,019,354
$9,335,032
$9,661,758
$9,999,919
$10,349,916
$10,712,164
$11,087,089
$11,475,137
$11,876,767
$12,292,454
$12,722,690
$13,167,984
$13,628,864
$14,105,874
$14,599,579
$15,110,565
$15,639,434
$16,186,815
$16,753,353
$17,339,720
$17,946,611
$18,574,742
$19,224,858
$19,897,728
$20,594,149
$21,314,944
$22,060,967
$22,833,101
$23,632,259
$24,459,388
$25,315,467
$26,201,508
$27,118,561
$28,067,711
$29,050,080
$30,066,833
$31,119,172
$32,208,343
Net Revenue
$20,598,744
$32,701,609
$33,999,551
$35,352,270
$36,762,254
$38,232,108
$39,764,567
$41,362,501
$43,028,919
$44,766,982
$46,580,004
$48,471,467
$50,445,025
$52,504,517
$54,653,971
$56,498,592
$58,404,471
$60,373,594
$62,408,010
$64,509,831
$66,681,237
$68,924,475
$71,241,859
$73,635,780
$76,108,698
$78,663,151
$81,301,756
$84,027,210
$86,842,292
$89,749,866
$92,752,884
$95,854,388
$99,057,514
$102,365,489
$105,067,059
$107,835,599
$110,672,580
$113,579,498
$116,557,871
$119,609,239
$122,735,169
$125,937,247
$129,217,085
$132,576,314
$136,016,591
$139,539,592
$143,147,015
$146,840,579
$150,622,024
$154,493,110
Page B-18
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-7 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 2 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
$0.75 auto toll alternative
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$270,252,613
$44,927,262
$278,393,973
$46,672,462
$286,780,592
$48,485,975
$295,419,857
$50,370,492
$304,319,380
$52,328,809
$313,487,001
$54,363,834
$322,930,797
$56,478,589
$332,659,088
$58,676,216
$342,680,443
$60,959,982
$352,125,572
$63,175,737
$361,831,033
$65,472,694
$371,804,001
$67,853,847
$382,051,849
$70,322,302
$392,582,153
$72,881,280
$403,402,699
$75,534,121
$414,521,486
$78,284,289
$425,946,734
$81,135,378
$437,686,891
$84,091,111
$449,750,636
$87,155,354
$462,146,888
$90,332,113
$474,884,811
$93,625,545
$487,973,824
$97,039,959
$501,423,602
$100,579,826
$515,244,091
$104,249,781
$529,445,506
$108,054,633
$544,038,348
$111,999,367
$559,033,404
$116,089,156
$574,441,763
$120,329,362
$590,274,814
$124,725,549
$606,544,263
$129,283,485
$623,262,140
$134,009,155
$640,440,802
$138,908,764
$658,092,952
$143,988,748
$676,231,639
$149,255,782
$694,870,273
$154,716,791
$714,022,635
$160,378,955
$733,702,884
$166,249,721
$753,925,570
$172,336,814
$774,705,644
$178,648,246
$796,058,468
$185,192,326
$817,999,829
$191,977,671
$840,545,950
$199,013,222
$863,713,497
$206,308,249
$887,519,601
$213,872,369
$911,981,860
$221,715,554
$937,118,360
$229,848,150
$962,947,684
$238,280,886
$989,488,930
$247,024,890
$1,016,761,719
$256,091,707
December 2007
Operations
$33,534,102
$34,707,796
$35,922,569
$37,179,859
$38,481,154
$39,827,994
$41,221,974
$42,664,743
$44,158,009
$45,703,539
$47,303,163
$48,958,774
$50,672,331
$52,445,863
$54,281,468
$56,181,319
$58,147,666
$60,182,834
$62,289,233
$64,469,356
$66,725,784
$69,061,186
$71,478,328
$73,980,069
$76,569,371
$79,249,299
$82,023,025
$84,893,831
$87,865,115
$90,940,394
$94,123,308
$97,417,623
$100,827,240
$104,356,194
$108,008,660
$111,788,964
$115,701,577
$119,751,133
$123,942,422
$128,280,407
$132,770,221
$137,417,179
$142,226,780
$147,204,717
$152,356,883
$157,689,373
$163,208,502
$168,920,799
$174,833,027
Maintenance
$33,335,635
$34,502,383
$35,709,966
$36,959,815
$38,253,408
$39,592,278
$40,978,007
$42,412,238
$43,896,666
$45,433,049
$47,023,206
$48,669,018
$50,372,434
$52,135,469
$53,960,211
$55,848,818
$57,803,527
$59,826,650
$61,920,583
$64,087,803
$66,330,876
$68,652,457
$71,055,293
$73,542,228
$76,116,206
$78,780,273
$81,537,583
$84,391,398
$87,345,097
$90,402,176
$93,566,252
$96,841,071
$100,230,508
$103,738,576
$107,369,426
$111,127,356
$115,016,813
$119,042,402
$123,208,886
$127,521,197
$131,984,439
$136,603,894
$141,385,030
$146,333,507
$151,455,179
$156,756,111
$162,242,574
$167,921,064
$173,798,302
Net Revenue
$158,455,614
$162,511,333
$166,662,082
$170,909,692
$175,256,009
$179,702,896
$184,252,227
$188,905,891
$193,665,785
$197,813,246
$202,031,970
$206,322,362
$210,684,782
$215,119,541
$219,626,899
$224,207,059
$228,860,164
$233,586,296
$238,385,466
$243,257,615
$248,202,607
$253,220,222
$258,310,156
$263,472,012
$268,705,295
$274,009,408
$279,383,641
$284,827,172
$290,339,053
$295,918,209
$301,563,425
$307,273,345
$313,046,456
$318,881,087
$324,775,396
$330,727,361
$336,734,773
$342,795,221
$348,906,090
$355,064,538
$361,267,498
$367,511,654
$373,793,437
$380,109,008
$386,454,244
$392,824,726
$399,215,723
$405,622,176
$412,038,683
Page B-19
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-8 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 3
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
December 2007
$1.00 auto toll alternative
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$44,241,850
$3,776,669
$61,473,819
$5,276,944
$64,068,665
$5,530,269
$66,778,867
$5,796,146
$69,609,879
$6,075,220
$72,567,433
$6,368,170
$75,657,551
$6,675,712
$78,886,559
$6,998,599
$82,261,106
$7,337,626
$85,788,183
$7,693,631
$89,475,136
$8,067,495
$93,329,692
$8,460,150
$97,359,974
$8,872,576
$101,574,526
$9,305,807
$105,982,335
$9,760,934
$109,718,212
$10,180,043
$113,585,779
$10,617,329
$117,589,678
$11,073,586
$121,734,714
$11,549,644
$126,025,863
$12,046,371
$130,468,275
$12,564,671
$135,067,281
$13,105,489
$139,828,403
$13,669,811
$144,757,354
$14,258,667
$149,860,051
$14,873,133
$155,142,618
$15,514,330
$160,611,395
$16,183,433
$166,272,947
$16,881,663
$172,134,068
$17,610,301
$178,201,794
$18,370,680
$184,483,407
$19,164,194
$190,986,447
$19,992,298
$197,718,720
$20,856,511
$204,688,304
$21,758,421
$210,854,540
$22,587,309
$217,206,533
$23,448,134
$223,749,879
$24,342,139
$230,490,344
$25,270,613
$237,433,866
$26,234,898
$244,586,561
$27,236,389
$251,954,731
$28,276,533
$259,544,868
$29,356,835
$267,363,657
$30,478,861
$275,417,987
$31,644,235
$283,714,954
$32,854,647
$292,261,867
$34,111,853
$301,066,256
$35,417,677
$310,135,877
$36,774,017
$319,478,720
$38,182,842
$329,103,016
$39,646,201
Operations
$6,004,394
$6,214,548
$6,432,057
$6,657,179
$6,890,180
$7,131,337
$7,380,934
$7,639,266
$7,906,641
$8,183,373
$8,469,791
$8,766,234
$9,073,052
$9,390,609
$9,719,280
$10,059,455
$10,411,536
$10,775,939
$11,153,097
$11,543,456
$11,947,477
$12,365,638
$12,798,436
$13,246,381
$13,710,004
$14,189,854
$14,686,499
$15,200,527
$15,732,545
$16,283,184
$16,853,096
$17,442,954
$18,053,458
$18,685,329
$19,339,315
$20,016,191
$20,716,758
$21,441,844
$22,192,309
$22,969,040
$23,772,956
$24,605,010
$25,466,185
$26,357,501
$27,280,014
$28,234,814
$29,223,033
$30,245,839
$31,304,443
$32,400,099
Maintenance
$5,968,858
$6,177,768
$6,393,990
$6,617,780
$6,849,402
$7,089,131
$7,337,251
$7,594,054
$7,859,846
$8,134,941
$8,419,664
$8,714,352
$9,019,354
$9,335,032
$9,661,758
$9,999,919
$10,349,916
$10,712,164
$11,087,089
$11,475,137
$11,876,767
$12,292,454
$12,722,690
$13,167,984
$13,628,864
$14,105,874
$14,599,579
$15,110,565
$15,639,434
$16,186,815
$16,753,353
$17,339,720
$17,946,611
$18,574,742
$19,224,858
$19,897,728
$20,594,149
$21,314,944
$22,060,967
$22,833,101
$23,632,259
$24,459,388
$25,315,467
$26,201,508
$27,118,561
$28,067,711
$29,050,080
$30,066,833
$31,119,172
$32,208,343
Net Revenue
$28,491,929
$43,804,559
$45,712,349
$47,707,762
$49,795,077
$51,978,796
$54,263,655
$56,654,639
$59,156,993
$61,776,238
$64,518,186
$67,388,956
$70,394,992
$73,543,078
$76,840,363
$79,478,795
$82,206,999
$85,027,989
$87,944,883
$90,960,898
$94,079,359
$97,303,700
$100,637,466
$104,084,322
$107,648,050
$111,332,559
$115,141,884
$119,080,192
$123,151,787
$127,361,115
$131,712,764
$136,211,475
$140,862,140
$145,669,813
$149,703,057
$153,844,479
$158,096,834
$162,462,944
$166,945,692
$171,548,032
$176,272,984
$181,123,635
$186,103,145
$191,214,743
$196,461,732
$201,847,489
$207,375,465
$213,049,187
$218,872,262
$224,848,373
Page B-20
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-8 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 3 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
$1.00 auto toll alternative
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$339,017,245
$41,166,222
$349,230,139
$42,745,119
$359,750,697
$44,385,189
$370,588,187
$46,088,823
$381,752,156
$47,858,505
$393,252,440
$49,696,815
$405,099,169
$51,606,436
$417,302,782
$53,590,157
$429,874,028
$55,650,876
$441,722,431
$57,647,845
$453,897,406
$59,717,261
$466,407,953
$61,861,777
$479,263,322
$64,084,140
$492,473,017
$66,387,201
$506,046,805
$68,773,915
$519,994,720
$71,247,346
$534,327,075
$73,810,671
$549,054,465
$76,467,183
$564,187,778
$79,220,300
$579,738,204
$82,073,561
$595,717,238
$85,030,640
$612,136,694
$88,095,343
$629,008,712
$91,271,620
$646,345,765
$94,563,565
$664,160,670
$97,975,421
$682,466,598
$101,511,592
$701,277,084
$105,176,640
$720,606,034
$108,975,301
$740,467,737
$112,912,480
$760,876,879
$116,993,268
$781,848,548
$121,222,941
$803,398,249
$125,606,972
$825,541,913
$130,151,034
$848,295,912
$134,861,013
$871,677,068
$139,743,009
$895,702,667
$144,803,351
$920,390,472
$150,048,600
$945,758,735
$155,485,560
$971,826,210
$161,121,286
$998,612,170
$166,963,096
$1,026,136,418
$173,018,578
$1,054,419,303
$179,295,599
$1,083,481,735
$185,802,320
$1,113,345,200
$192,547,203
$1,144,031,777
$199,539,023
$1,175,564,153
$206,786,880
$1,207,965,640
$214,300,211
$1,241,260,193
$222,088,803
$1,275,472,427
$230,162,806
December 2007
Operations
$33,534,102
$34,707,796
$35,922,569
$37,179,859
$38,481,154
$39,827,994
$41,221,974
$42,664,743
$44,158,009
$45,703,539
$47,303,163
$48,958,774
$50,672,331
$52,445,863
$54,281,468
$56,181,319
$58,147,666
$60,182,834
$62,289,233
$64,469,356
$66,725,784
$69,061,186
$71,478,328
$73,980,069
$76,569,371
$79,249,299
$82,023,025
$84,893,831
$87,865,115
$90,940,394
$94,123,308
$97,417,623
$100,827,240
$104,356,194
$108,008,660
$111,788,964
$115,701,577
$119,751,133
$123,942,422
$128,280,407
$132,770,221
$137,417,179
$142,226,780
$147,204,717
$152,356,883
$157,689,373
$163,208,502
$168,920,799
$174,833,027
Maintenance
$33,335,635
$34,502,383
$35,709,966
$36,959,815
$38,253,408
$39,592,278
$40,978,007
$42,412,238
$43,896,666
$45,433,049
$47,023,206
$48,669,018
$50,372,434
$52,135,469
$53,960,211
$55,848,818
$57,803,527
$59,826,650
$61,920,583
$64,087,803
$66,330,876
$68,652,457
$71,055,293
$73,542,228
$76,116,206
$78,780,273
$81,537,583
$84,391,398
$87,345,097
$90,402,176
$93,566,252
$96,841,071
$100,230,508
$103,738,576
$107,369,426
$111,127,356
$115,016,813
$119,042,402
$123,208,886
$127,521,197
$131,984,439
$136,603,894
$141,385,030
$146,333,507
$151,455,179
$156,756,111
$162,242,574
$167,921,064
$173,798,302
Net Revenue
$230,981,284
$237,274,842
$243,732,973
$250,359,690
$257,159,089
$264,135,353
$271,292,752
$278,635,644
$286,168,477
$292,937,998
$299,853,775
$306,918,384
$314,134,417
$321,504,485
$329,031,212
$336,717,237
$344,565,212
$352,577,797
$360,757,663
$369,107,484
$377,629,939
$386,327,708
$395,203,471
$404,259,903
$413,499,671
$422,925,434
$432,539,836
$442,345,504
$452,345,045
$462,541,042
$472,936,048
$483,532,583
$494,333,131
$505,340,130
$516,555,972
$527,982,996
$539,623,481
$551,479,640
$563,553,615
$575,847,469
$588,363,180
$601,102,630
$614,067,604
$627,259,773
$640,680,692
$654,331,789
$668,214,353
$682,329,526
$696,678,292
Page B-21
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-9 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 4
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
$1.50 auto toll alternative
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$54,099,465
$3,413,453
$75,513,799
$4,788,253
$79,059,726
$5,037,924
$82,778,798
$5,300,985
$86,679,862
$5,578,175
$90,772,241
$5,870,279
$95,065,758
$6,178,123
$99,570,765
$6,502,584
$104,298,175
$6,844,585
$109,259,490
$7,205,107
$114,466,838
$7,585,185
$119,933,005
$7,985,913
$125,671,477
$8,408,451
$131,696,474
$8,854,025
$138,022,999
$9,323,932
$142,888,310
$9,716,103
$147,925,122
$10,124,979
$153,139,483
$10,551,278
$158,537,650
$10,995,751
$164,126,102
$11,459,181
$169,911,547
$11,942,386
$175,900,929
$12,446,219
$182,101,437
$12,971,570
$188,520,512
$13,519,367
$195,165,860
$14,090,581
$202,045,457
$14,686,223
$209,167,559
$15,307,349
$216,540,716
$15,955,060
$224,173,776
$16,630,507
$232,075,902
$17,334,889
$240,256,577
$18,069,459
$248,725,622
$18,835,524
$257,493,200
$19,634,448
$266,569,835
$20,467,655
$274,600,251
$21,231,005
$282,872,584
$22,023,246
$291,394,121
$22,845,487
$300,172,368
$23,698,877
$309,215,061
$24,584,612
$318,530,165
$25,503,931
$328,125,886
$26,458,124
$338,010,678
$27,448,531
$348,193,250
$28,476,541
$358,682,572
$29,543,601
$369,487,884
$30,651,210
$380,618,707
$31,800,929
$392,084,845
$32,994,376
$403,896,401
$34,233,236
$416,063,780
$35,519,254
$428,597,702
$36,854,249
December 2007
Operations
$6,004,394
$6,214,548
$6,432,057
$6,657,179
$6,890,180
$7,131,337
$7,380,934
$7,639,266
$7,906,641
$8,183,373
$8,469,791
$8,766,234
$9,073,052
$9,390,609
$9,719,280
$10,059,455
$10,411,536
$10,775,939
$11,153,097
$11,543,456
$11,947,477
$12,365,638
$12,798,436
$13,246,381
$13,710,004
$14,189,854
$14,686,499
$15,200,527
$15,732,545
$16,283,184
$16,853,096
$17,442,954
$18,053,458
$18,685,329
$19,339,315
$20,016,191
$20,716,758
$21,441,844
$22,192,309
$22,969,040
$23,772,956
$24,605,010
$25,466,185
$26,357,501
$27,280,014
$28,234,814
$29,223,033
$30,245,839
$31,304,443
$32,400,099
Maintenance
$5,968,858
$6,177,768
$6,393,990
$6,617,780
$6,849,402
$7,089,131
$7,337,251
$7,594,054
$7,859,846
$8,134,941
$8,419,664
$8,714,352
$9,019,354
$9,335,032
$9,661,758
$9,999,919
$10,349,916
$10,712,164
$11,087,089
$11,475,137
$11,876,767
$12,292,454
$12,722,690
$13,167,984
$13,628,864
$14,105,874
$14,599,579
$15,110,565
$15,639,434
$16,186,815
$16,753,353
$17,339,720
$17,946,611
$18,574,742
$19,224,858
$19,897,728
$20,594,149
$21,314,944
$22,060,967
$22,833,101
$23,632,259
$24,459,388
$25,315,467
$26,201,508
$27,118,561
$28,067,711
$29,050,080
$30,066,833
$31,119,172
$32,208,343
Net Revenue
$38,712,760
$58,333,231
$61,195,755
$64,202,854
$67,362,104
$70,681,494
$74,169,450
$77,834,861
$81,687,103
$85,736,069
$89,992,198
$94,466,506
$99,170,619
$104,116,809
$109,318,029
$113,112,832
$117,038,691
$121,100,102
$125,301,713
$129,648,328
$134,144,917
$138,796,618
$143,608,742
$148,586,780
$153,736,411
$159,063,505
$164,574,132
$170,274,564
$176,171,289
$182,271,014
$188,580,669
$195,107,423
$201,858,683
$208,842,109
$214,805,073
$220,935,418
$227,237,727
$233,716,703
$240,377,174
$247,224,094
$254,262,546
$261,497,750
$268,935,057
$276,579,961
$284,438,099
$292,515,253
$300,817,355
$309,350,493
$318,120,910
$327,135,010
Page B-22
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-9 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 4(part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
$1.50 auto toll alternative
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$441,509,207
$38,240,105
$454,809,672
$39,678,784
$468,510,814
$41,172,320
$482,624,702
$42,722,831
$497,163,771
$44,332,512
$512,140,830
$46,003,648
$527,569,072
$47,738,610
$543,462,090
$49,539,863
$559,833,886
$51,409,968
$575,264,307
$53,218,868
$591,120,030
$55,092,358
$607,412,776
$57,032,771
$624,154,590
$59,042,525
$641,357,851
$61,124,129
$659,035,277
$63,280,180
$677,199,937
$65,513,374
$695,865,260
$67,826,501
$715,045,046
$70,222,457
$734,753,475
$72,704,240
$755,005,118
$75,274,961
$775,814,946
$77,937,842
$797,198,346
$80,696,225
$819,171,125
$83,553,572
$841,749,529
$86,513,474
$864,950,251
$89,579,651
$888,790,442
$92,755,962
$913,287,729
$96,046,404
$938,460,222
$99,455,122
$964,326,532
$102,986,414
$990,905,782
$106,644,734
$1,018,217,622
$110,434,698
$1,046,282,245
$114,361,095
$1,075,120,400
$118,428,885
$1,104,753,406
$122,643,213
$1,135,203,172
$127,009,411
$1,166,492,209
$131,533,008
$1,198,643,651
$136,219,735
$1,231,681,266
$141,075,534
$1,265,629,481
$146,106,563
$1,300,513,394
$151,319,209
$1,336,358,794
$156,720,092
$1,373,192,183
$162,316,074
$1,411,040,793
$168,114,272
$1,449,932,605
$174,122,062
$1,489,896,372
$180,347,092
$1,530,961,641
$186,797,292
$1,573,158,771
$193,480,882
$1,616,518,960
$200,406,384
$1,661,074,264
$207,582,636
December 2007
Operations
$33,534,102
$34,707,796
$35,922,569
$37,179,859
$38,481,154
$39,827,994
$41,221,974
$42,664,743
$44,158,009
$45,703,539
$47,303,163
$48,958,774
$50,672,331
$52,445,863
$54,281,468
$56,181,319
$58,147,666
$60,182,834
$62,289,233
$64,469,356
$66,725,784
$69,061,186
$71,478,328
$73,980,069
$76,569,371
$79,249,299
$82,023,025
$84,893,831
$87,865,115
$90,940,394
$94,123,308
$97,417,623
$100,827,240
$104,356,194
$108,008,660
$111,788,964
$115,701,577
$119,751,133
$123,942,422
$128,280,407
$132,770,221
$137,417,179
$142,226,780
$147,204,717
$152,356,883
$157,689,373
$163,208,502
$168,920,799
$174,833,027
Maintenance
$33,335,635
$34,502,383
$35,709,966
$36,959,815
$38,253,408
$39,592,278
$40,978,007
$42,412,238
$43,896,666
$45,433,049
$47,023,206
$48,669,018
$50,372,434
$52,135,469
$53,960,211
$55,848,818
$57,803,527
$59,826,650
$61,920,583
$64,087,803
$66,330,876
$68,652,457
$71,055,293
$73,542,228
$76,116,206
$78,780,273
$81,537,583
$84,391,398
$87,345,097
$90,402,176
$93,566,252
$96,841,071
$100,230,508
$103,738,576
$107,369,426
$111,127,356
$115,016,813
$119,042,402
$123,208,886
$127,521,197
$131,984,439
$136,603,894
$141,385,030
$146,333,507
$151,455,179
$156,756,111
$162,242,574
$167,921,064
$173,798,302
Net Revenue
$336,399,364
$345,920,710
$355,705,958
$365,762,197
$376,096,697
$386,716,910
$397,630,481
$408,845,246
$420,369,243
$430,908,850
$441,701,302
$452,752,213
$464,067,300
$475,652,391
$487,513,418
$499,656,426
$512,087,567
$524,813,106
$537,839,419
$551,172,998
$564,820,444
$578,788,478
$593,083,933
$607,713,758
$622,685,022
$638,004,908
$653,680,717
$669,719,871
$686,129,905
$702,918,478
$720,093,364
$737,662,457
$755,633,767
$774,015,424
$792,815,674
$812,042,881
$831,705,524
$851,812,198
$872,371,610
$893,392,581
$914,884,043
$936,855,036
$959,314,710
$982,272,319
$1,005,737,218
$1,029,718,865
$1,054,226,813
$1,079,270,712
$1,104,860,299
Page B-23
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-10 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 5
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
$2.00 auto toll alternative
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$58,613,848
$3,062,731
$82,081,755
$4,307,956
$86,217,203
$4,544,973
$90,569,379
$4,795,437
$95,150,167
$5,060,136
$99,972,133
$5,339,906
$105,048,568
$5,635,637
$110,393,530
$5,948,269
$116,021,893
$6,278,802
$121,949,394
$6,628,297
$128,192,686
$6,997,880
$134,769,393
$7,388,747
$141,698,171
$7,802,167
$148,998,772
$8,239,487
$156,692,106
$8,702,138
$162,215,503
$9,061,963
$167,933,600
$9,436,879
$173,853,259
$9,827,526
$179,981,586
$10,234,574
$186,325,937
$10,658,720
$192,893,926
$11,100,692
$199,693,437
$11,561,247
$206,732,631
$12,041,178
$214,019,956
$12,541,309
$221,564,160
$13,062,502
$229,374,296
$13,605,655
$237,459,740
$14,171,705
$245,830,196
$14,761,628
$254,495,711
$15,376,444
$263,466,684
$16,017,217
$272,753,885
$16,685,055
$282,368,459
$17,381,117
$292,321,948
$18,106,608
$302,626,296
$18,862,789
$311,742,913
$19,553,691
$321,134,169
$20,270,334
$330,808,336
$21,013,692
$340,773,937
$21,784,775
$351,039,752
$22,584,633
$361,614,824
$23,414,356
$372,508,471
$24,275,075
$383,730,288
$25,167,964
$395,290,163
$26,094,245
$407,198,279
$27,055,182
$419,465,128
$28,052,093
$432,101,515
$29,086,342
$445,118,573
$30,159,348
$458,527,770
$31,272,584
$472,340,919
$32,427,580
$486,570,189
$33,625,923
December 2007
Operations
$6,004,394
$6,214,548
$6,432,057
$6,657,179
$6,890,180
$7,131,337
$7,380,934
$7,639,266
$7,906,641
$8,183,373
$8,469,791
$8,766,234
$9,073,052
$9,390,609
$9,719,280
$10,059,455
$10,411,536
$10,775,939
$11,153,097
$11,543,456
$11,947,477
$12,365,638
$12,798,436
$13,246,381
$13,710,004
$14,189,854
$14,686,499
$15,200,527
$15,732,545
$16,283,184
$16,853,096
$17,442,954
$18,053,458
$18,685,329
$19,339,315
$20,016,191
$20,716,758
$21,441,844
$22,192,309
$22,969,040
$23,772,956
$24,605,010
$25,466,185
$26,357,501
$27,280,014
$28,234,814
$29,223,033
$30,245,839
$31,304,443
$32,400,099
Maintenance
$5,968,858
$6,177,768
$6,393,990
$6,617,780
$6,849,402
$7,089,131
$7,337,251
$7,594,054
$7,859,846
$8,134,941
$8,419,664
$8,714,352
$9,019,354
$9,335,032
$9,661,758
$9,999,919
$10,349,916
$10,712,164
$11,087,089
$11,475,137
$11,876,767
$12,292,454
$12,722,690
$13,167,984
$13,628,864
$14,105,874
$14,599,579
$15,110,565
$15,639,434
$16,186,815
$16,753,353
$17,339,720
$17,946,611
$18,574,742
$19,224,858
$19,897,728
$20,594,149
$21,314,944
$22,060,967
$22,833,101
$23,632,259
$24,459,388
$25,315,467
$26,201,508
$27,118,561
$28,067,711
$29,050,080
$30,066,833
$31,119,172
$32,208,343
Net Revenue
$43,577,865
$65,381,483
$68,846,182
$72,498,983
$76,350,449
$80,411,759
$84,694,747
$89,211,941
$93,976,605
$99,002,783
$104,305,351
$109,900,060
$115,803,598
$122,033,645
$128,608,931
$133,094,166
$137,735,269
$142,537,630
$147,506,825
$152,648,624
$157,968,991
$163,474,098
$169,170,328
$175,064,282
$181,162,790
$187,472,913
$194,001,957
$200,757,477
$207,747,287
$214,979,468
$222,462,381
$230,204,668
$238,215,271
$246,503,437
$253,625,050
$260,949,916
$268,483,737
$276,232,373
$284,201,842
$292,398,327
$300,828,180
$309,497,926
$318,414,267
$327,584,088
$337,014,460
$346,712,648
$356,686,111
$366,942,513
$377,489,723
$388,335,824
Page B-24
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B-10 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 5(part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
$2.00 auto toll alternative
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$501,228,116
$34,869,264
$516,327,613
$36,159,315
$531,881,982
$37,497,855
$547,904,927
$38,886,733
$564,410,563
$40,327,865
$581,413,431
$41,823,246
$598,928,511
$43,374,944
$616,971,232
$44,985,110
$635,557,490
$46,655,974
$653,075,044
$48,269,483
$671,075,425
$49,939,777
$689,571,941
$51,668,883
$708,578,268
$53,458,902
$728,108,456
$55,312,011
$748,176,945
$57,230,467
$768,798,572
$59,216,607
$789,988,583
$61,272,852
$811,762,643
$63,401,714
$834,136,851
$65,605,792
$857,127,748
$67,887,780
$880,752,332
$70,250,473
$905,028,068
$72,696,762
$929,972,904
$75,229,648
$955,605,282
$77,852,237
$981,944,153
$80,567,749
$1,009,008,989
$83,379,522
$1,036,819,799
$86,291,012
$1,065,397,145
$89,305,805
$1,094,762,153
$92,427,614
$1,124,936,535
$95,660,287
$1,155,942,598
$99,007,813
$1,187,803,266
$102,474,326
$1,220,542,094
$106,064,110
$1,254,183,285
$109,781,604
$1,288,751,712
$113,631,410
$1,324,272,931
$117,618,297
$1,360,773,204
$121,747,206
$1,398,279,515
$126,023,261
$1,436,819,594
$130,451,769
$1,476,421,934
$135,038,235
$1,517,115,814
$139,788,359
$1,558,931,319
$144,708,055
$1,601,899,363
$149,803,446
$1,646,051,714
$155,080,884
$1,691,421,015
$160,546,950
$1,738,040,806
$166,208,466
$1,785,945,556
$172,072,502
$1,835,170,681
$178,146,387
$1,885,752,572
$184,437,717
December 2007
Operations
$33,534,102
$34,707,796
$35,922,569
$37,179,859
$38,481,154
$39,827,994
$41,221,974
$42,664,743
$44,158,009
$45,703,539
$47,303,163
$48,958,774
$50,672,331
$52,445,863
$54,281,468
$56,181,319
$58,147,666
$60,182,834
$62,289,233
$64,469,356
$66,725,784
$69,061,186
$71,478,328
$73,980,069
$76,569,371
$79,249,299
$82,023,025
$84,893,831
$87,865,115
$90,940,394
$94,123,308
$97,417,623
$100,827,240
$104,356,194
$108,008,660
$111,788,964
$115,701,577
$119,751,133
$123,942,422
$128,280,407
$132,770,221
$137,417,179
$142,226,780
$147,204,717
$152,356,883
$157,689,373
$163,208,502
$168,920,799
$174,833,027
Maintenance
$33,335,635
$34,502,383
$35,709,966
$36,959,815
$38,253,408
$39,592,278
$40,978,007
$42,412,238
$43,896,666
$45,433,049
$47,023,206
$48,669,018
$50,372,434
$52,135,469
$53,960,211
$55,848,818
$57,803,527
$59,826,650
$61,920,583
$64,087,803
$66,330,876
$68,652,457
$71,055,293
$73,542,228
$76,116,206
$78,780,273
$81,537,583
$84,391,398
$87,345,097
$90,402,176
$93,566,252
$96,841,071
$100,230,508
$103,738,576
$107,369,426
$111,127,356
$115,016,813
$119,042,402
$123,208,886
$127,521,197
$131,984,439
$136,603,894
$141,385,030
$146,333,507
$151,455,179
$156,756,111
$162,242,574
$167,921,064
$173,798,302
Net Revenue
$399,489,114
$410,958,119
$422,751,592
$434,878,521
$447,348,135
$460,169,913
$473,353,585
$486,909,141
$500,846,841
$513,668,971
$526,809,278
$540,275,266
$554,074,601
$568,215,113
$582,704,800
$597,551,828
$612,764,539
$628,351,446
$644,321,244
$660,682,809
$677,445,199
$694,617,663
$712,209,636
$730,230,748
$748,690,826
$767,599,894
$786,968,179
$806,806,110
$827,124,327
$847,933,679
$869,245,226
$891,070,246
$913,420,235
$936,306,911
$959,742,215
$983,738,315
$1,008,307,607
$1,033,462,720
$1,059,216,517
$1,085,582,096
$1,112,572,795
$1,140,202,191
$1,168,484,106
$1,197,432,606
$1,227,062,002
$1,257,386,856
$1,288,421,978
$1,320,182,430
$1,352,683,526
Page B-25
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B11 No Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 1
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
December 2007
Toll 1 - Time of Day tolls, no MLK tolls: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$23,808,371
$3,060,946
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$8,774,173
$33,090,596
$4,306,104
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$16,392,176
$34,493,778
$4,543,469
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$17,124,262
$35,956,460
$4,794,059
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$17,887,442
$37,481,166
$5,058,619
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$18,682,964
$39,070,526
$5,337,934
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$19,512,125
$40,727,282
$5,632,832
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$20,376,266
$42,454,291
$5,944,191
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$21,276,779
$44,254,533
$6,272,938
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$22,215,108
$46,131,112
$6,620,050
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$23,192,748
$48,087,267
$6,986,563
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$24,211,249
$50,126,370
$7,373,568
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$25,272,217
$52,251,941
$7,782,221
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$26,377,314
$54,467,644
$8,213,742
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$27,528,262
$56,777,303
$8,669,420
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$28,726,845
$58,778,703
$9,049,962
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$29,669,367
$60,850,652
$9,447,317
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$30,641,883
$62,995,638
$9,862,232
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$31,645,302
$65,216,234
$10,295,487
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$32,680,560
$67,515,106
$10,747,896
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$33,748,617
$69,895,014
$11,220,311
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$34,850,458
$72,358,813
$11,713,622
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$35,987,099
$74,909,461
$12,228,756
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$37,159,579
$77,550,020
$12,766,686
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$38,368,969
$80,283,658
$13,328,423
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$39,616,367
$83,113,657
$13,915,028
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$40,902,900
$86,043,413
$14,527,607
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$42,229,727
$89,076,443
$15,167,315
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$43,598,037
$92,216,388
$15,835,360
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$45,009,048
$95,467,016
$16,533,003
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$46,464,014
$98,832,228
$17,261,562
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$47,964,217
$102,316,064
$18,022,413
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$49,510,976
$105,922,705
$18,816,995
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$51,105,642
$109,656,481
$19,646,810
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$52,749,600
$112,959,882
$20,411,875
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$53,983,834
$116,362,799
$21,206,947
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$55,241,932
$119,868,228
$22,033,208
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$56,524,113
$123,479,258
$22,891,890
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$57,830,581
$127,199,071
$23,784,270
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$59,161,525
$131,030,943
$24,711,679
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$60,517,123
$134,978,250
$25,675,500
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$61,897,535
$139,044,470
$26,677,170
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$63,302,903
$143,233,185
$27,718,182
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$64,733,351
$147,548,084
$28,800,091
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$66,188,983
$151,992,970
$29,924,512
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$67,669,883
$156,571,759
$31,093,124
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$69,176,110
$161,288,483
$32,307,672
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$70,707,698
$166,147,298
$33,569,972
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$72,264,654
$171,152,486
$34,881,910
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$73,846,960
$176,308,454
$36,245,449
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
$75,454,563
Page B-26
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B11 No Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 1 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
December 2007
Toll 1 - Time of Day tolls, no MLK tolls: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$181,619,746
$37,662,628
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$77,087,380
$187,091,041
$39,135,568
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$78,745,294
$192,727,159
$40,666,474
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$80,428,150
$198,533,065
$42,257,637
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$82,135,754
$204,513,873
$43,911,442
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$83,867,869
$210,674,854
$45,630,366
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$85,624,215
$217,021,434
$47,416,986
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$87,404,466
$223,559,204
$49,273,980
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$89,208,243
$230,293,925
$51,204,133
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$91,035,117
$236,641,402
$53,077,977
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$92,426,835
$243,163,830
$55,020,855
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$93,816,606
$249,866,033
$57,035,321
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$95,202,920
$256,752,966
$59,124,028
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$96,584,172
$263,829,719
$61,289,726
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$97,958,662
$271,101,526
$63,535,266
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$99,324,582
$278,573,762
$65,863,606
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$100,680,018
$286,251,951
$68,277,815
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$102,022,944
$294,141,771
$70,781,075
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$103,351,212
$302,249,053
$73,376,685
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$104,662,552
$310,579,793
$76,068,070
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$105,954,563
$319,140,148
$78,858,781
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$107,224,708
$327,936,449
$81,752,499
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$108,470,307
$336,975,197
$84,753,044
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$109,688,532
$346,263,076
$87,864,380
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$110,876,399
$355,806,952
$91,090,614
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$112,030,761
$365,613,881
$94,436,009
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$113,148,299
$375,691,114
$97,904,986
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$114,225,520
$386,046,100
$101,502,131
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$115,258,740
$396,686,495
$105,232,200
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$116,244,083
$407,620,167
$109,100,126
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$117,177,471
$418,855,198
$113,111,026
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$118,054,612
$430,399,894
$117,270,209
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$118,870,992
$442,262,791
$121,583,178
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$119,621,865
$454,452,660
$126,055,645
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$120,302,245
$466,978,511
$130,693,532
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$120,906,893
$479,849,606
$135,502,983
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$121,430,304
$493,075,461
$140,490,370
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$121,866,700
$506,665,853
$145,662,304
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$122,210,015
$520,630,831
$151,025,641
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$122,453,882
$534,980,718
$156,587,492
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$122,591,622
$549,726,124
$162,355,234
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$122,616,230
$564,877,951
$168,336,520
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$122,520,358
$580,447,399
$174,539,285
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$122,296,304
$596,445,980
$180,971,762
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$121,935,994
$612,885,523
$187,642,492
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$121,430,969
$629,778,180
$194,560,333
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$120,772,363
$647,136,441
$201,734,472
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$119,950,894
$664,973,139
$209,174,440
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$118,956,836
$683,301,461
$216,890,124
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
$117,780,008
Page B-27
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B12 No Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 2
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
Toll 2 - Time of Day tolls, no MLK tolls: $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$36,513,460
$3,432,129
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$50,720,798
$4,793,048
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$52,842,143
$5,020,246
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$55,052,211
$5,258,259
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$57,354,713
$5,507,603
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$59,753,514
$5,768,821
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$62,252,643
$6,042,479
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$64,856,296
$6,329,172
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$67,568,843
$6,629,524
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$70,394,840
$6,944,187
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$73,339,032
$7,273,847
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$76,406,361
$7,619,220
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$79,601,978
$7,981,058
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$82,931,249
$8,360,149
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$86,399,763
$8,757,319
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$89,445,354
$9,135,265
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$92,598,303
$9,529,675
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$95,862,393
$9,941,270
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$99,241,543
$10,370,806
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$102,739,807
$10,819,071
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$106,361,385
$11,286,887
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$110,110,624
$11,775,113
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$113,992,024
$12,284,648
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$118,010,242
$12,816,428
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$122,170,104
$13,371,431
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$126,476,600
$13,950,679
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$130,934,900
$14,555,240
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$135,550,355
$15,186,226
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$140,328,505
$15,844,802
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$145,275,085
$16,532,183
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$150,396,032
$17,249,637
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$155,697,492
$17,998,490
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$161,185,828
$18,780,126
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$166,867,629
$19,595,989
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$171,894,516
$20,346,363
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$177,072,838
$21,125,773
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$182,407,158
$21,935,350
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$187,902,173
$22,776,272
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$193,562,726
$23,649,764
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$199,393,803
$24,557,096
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$205,400,542
$25,499,592
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$211,588,233
$26,478,624
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$217,962,328
$27,495,620
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$224,528,444
$28,552,066
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$231,292,363
$29,649,502
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$238,260,045
$30,789,531
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$245,437,629
$31,973,822
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$252,831,438
$33,204,104
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$260,447,985
$34,482,177
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$268,293,980
$35,809,914
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
December 2007
Net Revenue
$21,108,079
$33,535,433
$34,995,849
$36,518,993
$38,107,527
$39,764,226
$41,491,980
$43,293,803
$45,172,833
$47,132,339
$49,175,730
$51,306,556
$53,528,514
$55,845,460
$58,261,406
$60,250,715
$62,307,176
$64,433,020
$66,630,550
$68,902,143
$71,250,255
$73,677,418
$76,186,250
$78,779,449
$81,459,804
$84,230,192
$87,093,581
$90,053,037
$93,111,723
$96,272,903
$99,539,945
$102,916,327
$106,405,634
$110,011,569
$112,983,979
$116,033,146
$119,160,901
$122,369,113
$125,659,687
$129,034,566
$132,495,734
$136,045,211
$139,685,056
$143,417,369
$147,244,287
$151,167,989
$155,190,694
$159,314,662
$163,542,192
$167,875,624
Page B-28
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B12 No Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 2 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
Toll 2 - Time of Day tolls, no MLK tolls: $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$276,376,337
$37,189,257
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$284,702,174
$38,622,229
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$293,278,827
$40,110,929
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$302,113,851
$41,657,542
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$311,215,031
$43,264,336
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$320,590,384
$44,933,671
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$330,248,169
$46,667,999
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$340,196,895
$48,469,868
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$350,445,327
$50,341,928
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$360,104,476
$52,156,864
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$370,029,856
$54,037,889
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$380,228,804
$55,987,428
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$390,708,860
$58,007,996
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$401,477,773
$60,102,201
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$412,543,504
$62,272,747
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$423,914,235
$64,522,437
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$435,598,371
$66,854,180
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$447,604,551
$69,270,990
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$459,941,651
$71,775,994
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$472,618,793
$74,372,434
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$485,645,348
$77,063,672
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$499,030,948
$79,853,194
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$512,785,489
$82,744,614
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$526,919,139
$85,741,683
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$541,442,348
$88,848,286
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$556,365,852
$92,068,456
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$571,700,686
$95,406,373
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$587,458,186
$98,866,371
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$603,650,002
$102,452,947
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$620,288,106
$106,170,762
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$637,384,797
$110,024,651
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$654,952,715
$114,019,627
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$673,004,849
$118,160,890
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$691,554,545
$122,453,832
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$710,615,518
$126,904,043
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$730,201,858
$131,517,322
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$750,328,046
$136,299,683
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$771,008,963
$141,257,363
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$792,259,898
$146,396,828
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$814,096,561
$151,724,786
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$836,535,098
$157,248,192
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$859,592,096
$162,974,261
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$883,284,604
$168,910,473
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$907,630,135
$175,064,587
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$932,646,691
$181,444,649
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$958,352,765
$188,059,005
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$984,767,364
$194,916,308
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$1,011,910,014
$202,025,534
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$1,039,800,784
$209,395,992
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
December 2007
Net Revenue
$172,317,341
$176,869,766
$181,535,362
$186,316,636
$191,216,132
$196,236,440
$201,380,189
$206,650,046
$212,048,724
$216,811,023
$221,665,597
$226,613,583
$231,656,099
$236,794,240
$242,029,079
$247,361,660
$252,792,999
$258,324,077
$263,955,841
$269,689,199
$275,525,016
$281,464,112
$287,507,254
$293,655,159
$299,908,484
$306,267,823
$312,733,706
$319,306,586
$325,986,843
$332,774,774
$339,670,586
$346,674,394
$353,786,211
$361,005,944
$368,333,389
$375,768,216
$383,309,972
$390,958,066
$398,711,762
$406,570,172
$414,532,246
$422,596,763
$430,762,320
$439,027,325
$447,389,980
$455,848,277
$464,399,980
$473,042,616
$481,773,463
Page B-29
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B13 No Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 3
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
Toll 3 - Time of Day tolls, no MLK tolls: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$43,975,690
$3,341,252
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$61,301,968
$4,677,533
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$64,091,057
$4,911,214
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$67,007,043
$5,156,608
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$70,055,699
$5,414,302
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$73,243,062
$5,684,916
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$76,575,441
$5,969,098
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$80,059,436
$6,267,532
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$83,701,944
$6,580,934
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$87,510,177
$6,910,057
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$91,491,676
$7,255,692
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$95,654,323
$7,618,670
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$100,006,360
$7,999,864
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$104,556,404
$8,400,190
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$109,313,464
$8,820,612
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$113,166,764
$9,196,338
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$117,155,892
$9,588,246
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$121,285,637
$9,997,041
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$125,560,956
$10,423,457
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$129,986,980
$10,868,261
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$134,569,021
$11,332,253
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$139,312,579
$11,816,270
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$144,223,347
$12,321,182
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$149,307,220
$12,847,902
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$154,570,300
$13,397,378
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$160,018,903
$13,970,604
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$165,659,569
$14,568,614
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$171,499,069
$15,192,491
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$177,544,411
$15,843,364
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$183,802,852
$16,522,410
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$190,281,902
$17,230,860
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$196,989,339
$17,969,999
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$203,933,213
$18,741,167
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$211,121,859
$19,545,765
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$217,481,905
$20,284,337
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$224,033,547
$21,051,175
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$230,782,558
$21,847,373
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$237,734,883
$22,674,065
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$244,896,646
$23,532,432
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$252,274,157
$24,423,701
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$259,873,916
$25,349,145
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$267,702,618
$26,310,089
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$275,767,160
$27,307,908
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$284,074,645
$28,344,031
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$292,632,394
$29,419,944
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$301,447,945
$30,537,189
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$310,529,064
$31,697,370
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$319,883,752
$32,902,154
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$329,520,250
$34,153,272
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$339,447,048
$35,452,523
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
December 2007
Net Revenue
$28,661,185
$44,232,119
$46,353,796
$48,575,476
$50,901,815
$53,337,678
$55,888,159
$58,558,584
$61,354,524
$64,281,807
$67,346,529
$70,555,067
$73,914,090
$77,430,574
$81,111,814
$83,911,052
$86,806,194
$89,800,494
$92,897,313
$96,100,126
$99,412,523
$102,838,216
$106,381,039
$110,044,953
$113,834,054
$117,752,571
$121,804,876
$125,995,486
$130,329,068
$134,810,443
$139,444,593
$144,236,665
$149,191,978
$154,316,023
$158,633,394
$163,068,453
$167,624,279
$172,304,030
$177,110,938
$182,048,316
$187,119,556
$192,328,131
$197,677,600
$203,171,605
$208,813,875
$214,608,231
$220,558,581
$226,668,926
$232,943,362
$239,386,083
Page B-30
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B13 No Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 3 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
Toll 3 - Time of Day tolls, no MLK tolls: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$349,672,890
$36,801,776
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$360,206,786
$38,202,975
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$371,058,015
$39,658,137
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$382,236,138
$41,169,362
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$393,751,002
$42,738,829
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$405,612,751
$44,368,803
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$417,831,835
$46,061,639
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$430,419,019
$47,819,782
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$443,385,392
$49,645,776
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$455,606,202
$51,414,048
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$468,163,847
$53,246,090
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$481,067,613
$55,144,224
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$494,327,040
$57,110,858
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$507,951,929
$59,148,489
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$521,952,354
$61,259,704
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$536,338,665
$63,447,186
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$551,121,500
$65,713,718
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$566,311,786
$68,062,182
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$581,920,755
$70,495,569
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$597,959,946
$73,016,979
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$614,441,217
$75,629,625
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$631,376,753
$78,336,838
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$648,779,074
$81,142,074
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$666,661,048
$84,048,913
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$685,035,893
$87,061,070
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$703,917,195
$90,182,393
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$723,318,912
$93,416,875
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$743,255,390
$96,768,654
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$763,741,366
$100,242,020
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$784,791,988
$103,841,424
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$806,422,817
$107,571,478
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$828,649,846
$111,436,964
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$851,489,507
$115,442,842
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$874,958,687
$119,594,254
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$899,074,736
$123,896,531
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$923,855,483
$128,355,201
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$949,319,250
$132,975,996
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$975,484,862
$137,764,859
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$1,002,371,663
$142,727,952
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$1,029,999,532
$147,871,666
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$1,058,388,894
$153,202,626
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$1,087,560,738
$158,727,702
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$1,117,536,631
$164,454,018
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$1,148,338,734
$170,388,961
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$1,179,989,821
$176,540,190
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$1,212,513,290
$182,915,647
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$1,245,933,188
$189,523,569
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$1,280,274,221
$196,372,496
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$1,315,561,779
$203,471,283
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
December 2007
Net Revenue
$246,001,376
$252,793,632
$259,767,343
$266,927,102
$274,277,610
$281,823,676
$289,570,215
$297,522,255
$305,684,940
$313,055,564
$320,591,388
$328,295,597
$336,171,416
$344,222,108
$352,450,972
$360,861,342
$369,456,590
$378,240,120
$387,215,370
$396,385,807
$405,754,932
$415,326,272
$425,103,380
$435,089,837
$445,289,245
$455,705,229
$466,341,430
$477,201,507
$488,289,134
$499,607,994
$511,161,780
$522,954,188
$534,988,916
$547,269,663
$559,800,118
$572,583,962
$585,624,863
$598,926,468
$612,492,403
$626,326,262
$640,431,608
$654,811,963
$669,470,802
$684,411,550
$699,637,569
$715,152,159
$730,958,542
$747,059,862
$763,459,168
Page B-31
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B14 No Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 4
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
Toll 4 - Time of Day tolls, no MLK tolls: $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT)
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$53,469,028
$3,102,412
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$74,914,587
$4,361,255
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$78,721,208
$4,598,199
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$82,721,255
$4,848,049
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$86,924,555
$5,111,509
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$91,341,437
$5,389,322
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$95,982,754
$5,682,274
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$100,859,908
$5,991,190
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$105,984,885
$6,316,942
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$111,370,276
$6,660,451
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$117,029,314
$7,022,686
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$122,975,903
$7,404,672
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$129,224,656
$7,807,486
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$135,790,926
$8,232,269
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$142,690,846
$8,680,221
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$147,720,698
$9,042,163
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$152,927,853
$9,419,402
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$158,318,559
$9,812,591
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$163,899,289
$10,222,414
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$169,676,739
$10,649,582
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$175,657,844
$11,094,838
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$181,849,783
$11,558,958
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$188,259,987
$12,042,750
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$194,896,152
$12,547,057
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$201,766,241
$13,072,760
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$208,878,501
$13,620,778
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$216,241,469
$14,192,067
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$223,863,980
$14,787,628
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$231,755,186
$15,408,505
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$239,924,556
$16,055,784
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$248,381,896
$16,730,603
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$257,137,358
$17,434,145
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$266,201,450
$18,167,648
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$275,585,051
$18,932,401
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$283,887,051
$19,632,078
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$292,439,148
$20,358,029
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$301,248,878
$21,111,255
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$310,324,000
$21,892,794
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$319,672,511
$22,703,724
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$329,302,645
$23,545,166
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$339,222,887
$24,418,285
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$349,441,977
$25,324,287
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$359,968,916
$26,264,429
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$370,812,980
$27,240,013
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$381,983,721
$28,252,394
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$393,490,980
$29,302,977
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$405,344,896
$30,393,223
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$417,555,911
$31,524,649
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$430,134,783
$32,698,831
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$443,092,593
$33,917,403
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
December 2007
Net Revenue
$38,393,364
$58,161,016
$61,296,962
$64,598,248
$68,073,464
$71,731,647
$75,582,296
$79,635,398
$83,901,456
$88,391,511
$93,117,173
$98,090,646
$103,324,764
$108,833,016
$114,629,587
$118,619,160
$122,746,998
$127,017,865
$131,436,688
$136,008,563
$140,738,761
$145,632,732
$150,696,112
$155,934,730
$161,354,613
$166,961,996
$172,763,323
$178,765,260
$184,974,701
$191,398,772
$198,044,844
$204,920,538
$212,033,734
$219,392,580
$225,690,800
$232,167,200
$238,826,716
$245,674,418
$252,715,511
$259,955,338
$267,399,387
$275,053,292
$282,922,836
$291,013,957
$299,332,752
$307,885,478
$316,678,560
$325,718,590
$335,012,337
$344,566,748
Page B-32
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B14 No Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 4 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
Toll 4 - Time of Day tolls, no MLK tolls: $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT)
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$456,440,758
$35,182,067
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$354,388,953
$470,191,036
$36,494,588
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$364,486,269
$484,355,541
$37,856,798
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$374,866,207
$498,946,751
$39,270,604
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$385,536,473
$513,977,522
$40,737,984
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$396,504,976
$529,461,095
$42,260,992
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$407,779,831
$545,411,110
$43,841,763
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$419,369,366
$561,841,620
$45,482,516
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$431,282,124
$578,767,099
$47,185,553
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$443,526,871
$594,719,367
$48,831,492
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$454,751,286
$611,111,320
$50,535,781
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$466,249,169
$627,955,075
$52,300,514
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$478,026,769
$645,263,087
$54,127,864
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$490,090,458
$663,048,151
$56,020,082
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$502,446,737
$681,323,416
$57,979,502
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$515,102,235
$700,102,392
$60,008,541
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$528,063,715
$719,398,965
$62,109,704
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$541,338,069
$739,227,399
$64,285,589
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$554,932,326
$759,602,354
$66,538,887
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$568,853,651
$780,538,894
$68,872,387
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$583,109,347
$802,052,497
$71,288,980
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$597,706,857
$824,159,069
$73,791,662
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$612,653,764
$846,874,953
$76,383,538
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$627,957,795
$870,216,944
$79,067,826
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$643,626,821
$894,202,299
$81,847,861
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$659,668,860
$918,848,749
$84,727,101
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$676,092,075
$944,174,518
$87,709,129
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$692,904,781
$970,198,328
$90,797,658
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$710,115,441
$996,939,420
$93,996,538
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$727,732,669
$1,024,417,562
$97,309,758
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$745,765,235
$1,052,653,071
$100,741,453
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$764,222,059
$1,081,666,822
$104,295,910
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$783,112,218
$1,111,480,264
$107,977,571
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$802,444,944
$1,142,115,438
$111,791,041
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$822,229,628
$1,173,594,995
$115,741,093
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$842,475,815
$1,205,942,207
$119,832,675
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$863,193,212
$1,239,180,989
$124,070,915
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$884,391,683
$1,273,335,915
$128,461,129
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$906,081,251
$1,308,432,236
$133,008,828
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$928,272,100
$1,344,495,900
$137,719,723
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$950,974,574
$1,381,553,568
$142,599,734
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$974,199,174
$1,419,632,638
$147,655,000
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$997,956,565
$1,458,761,263
$152,891,882
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$1,022,257,570
$1,498,968,370
$158,316,976
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$1,047,113,170
$1,540,283,686
$163,937,118
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$1,072,534,506
$1,582,737,755
$169,759,395
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$1,098,532,876
$1,626,361,964
$175,791,153
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$1,125,119,735
$1,671,188,566
$182,040,009
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$1,152,306,693
$1,717,250,701
$188,513,857
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
$1,180,105,515
December 2007
Page B-33
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B15 No Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 5
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
Toll 5 - Time of Day tolls, no MLK tolls: $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$57,086,753
$2,805,312
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$80,282,791
$3,956,673
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$84,678,048
$4,185,461
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$89,313,934
$4,427,509
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$94,203,621
$4,683,587
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$99,361,005
$4,954,509
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$104,800,741
$5,241,139
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$110,538,288
$5,544,388
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$116,589,949
$5,865,223
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$122,972,922
$6,204,667
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$129,705,344
$6,563,799
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$136,806,348
$6,943,766
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$144,296,112
$7,345,778
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$152,195,919
$7,771,117
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$160,528,218
$8,221,140
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$166,186,838
$8,558,299
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$172,044,924
$8,909,492
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$178,109,508
$9,275,309
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$184,387,868
$9,656,368
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$190,887,540
$10,053,313
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$197,616,326
$10,466,816
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$204,582,301
$10,897,575
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$211,793,828
$11,346,322
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$219,259,560
$11,813,817
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$226,988,459
$12,300,855
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$234,989,803
$12,808,262
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$243,273,193
$13,336,901
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$251,848,573
$13,887,675
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$260,726,235
$14,461,520
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$269,916,835
$15,059,416
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$279,431,404
$15,682,386
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$289,281,361
$16,331,492
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$299,478,529
$17,007,847
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$310,035,147
$17,712,609
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$319,374,956
$18,355,664
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$328,996,126
$19,022,489
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$338,907,134
$19,713,976
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$349,116,712
$20,431,053
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$359,633,853
$21,174,681
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$370,467,823
$21,945,859
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$381,628,166
$22,745,623
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$393,124,714
$23,575,050
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$404,967,596
$24,435,258
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$417,167,245
$25,327,406
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$429,734,408
$26,252,699
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$442,680,157
$27,212,387
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$456,015,897
$28,207,768
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$469,753,376
$29,240,190
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$483,904,697
$30,311,052
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$498,482,326
$31,421,808
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
December 2007
Net Revenue
$42,308,189
$63,933,802
$67,666,540
$71,611,466
$75,780,452
$80,186,028
$84,841,419
$89,760,579
$94,958,239
$100,449,941
$106,252,090
$112,381,996
$118,857,928
$125,699,162
$132,926,041
$137,569,165
$142,373,980
$147,346,096
$152,491,313
$157,815,634
$163,325,266
$169,026,633
$174,926,380
$181,031,377
$187,348,737
$193,885,813
$200,650,213
$207,649,807
$214,892,736
$222,387,420
$230,142,569
$238,167,194
$246,470,613
$255,062,467
$262,455,119
$270,059,718
$277,882,252
$285,928,871
$294,205,896
$302,719,824
$311,477,328
$320,485,266
$329,750,686
$339,280,829
$349,083,134
$359,165,245
$369,535,016
$380,200,514
$391,170,028
$402,452,076
Page B-34
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B15 No Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 5 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
Toll 5 - Time of Day tolls, no MLK tolls: $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$513,499,106
$32,573,964
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$414,055,403
$528,968,266
$33,769,089
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$425,988,999
$544,903,435
$35,008,807
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$438,262,093
$561,318,651
$36,294,808
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$450,884,170
$578,228,376
$37,628,844
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$463,864,969
$595,647,505
$39,012,736
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$477,214,497
$613,591,386
$40,448,375
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$490,943,030
$632,075,827
$41,937,724
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$505,061,122
$651,117,111
$43,482,820
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$519,579,616
$669,063,527
$44,973,626
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$532,953,311
$687,504,590
$46,516,511
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$546,661,710
$706,453,935
$48,113,321
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$560,712,822
$725,925,572
$49,765,972
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$575,114,835
$745,933,896
$51,476,448
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$589,876,116
$766,493,699
$53,246,803
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$605,005,217
$787,620,181
$55,079,167
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$620,510,877
$809,328,962
$56,975,745
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$636,402,025
$831,636,092
$58,938,824
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$652,687,784
$854,558,062
$60,970,769
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$669,377,476
$878,111,818
$63,074,035
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$686,480,624
$902,314,775
$65,251,163
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$704,006,952
$927,184,826
$67,504,786
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$721,966,397
$952,740,358
$69,837,631
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$740,369,106
$979,000,264
$72,252,526
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$759,225,441
$1,005,983,959
$74,752,400
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$778,545,982
$1,033,711,392
$77,340,286
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$798,341,533
$1,062,203,062
$80,019,329
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$818,623,125
$1,091,480,034
$82,792,786
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$839,402,018
$1,121,563,952
$85,664,034
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$860,689,706
$1,152,477,059
$88,636,570
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$882,497,919
$1,184,242,208
$91,714,018
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$904,838,630
$1,216,882,883
$94,900,134
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$927,724,055
$1,250,423,218
$98,198,810
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$951,166,660
$1,284,888,008
$101,614,077
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$975,179,162
$1,320,302,734
$105,150,114
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$999,774,533
$1,356,693,578
$108,811,251
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$1,024,966,007
$1,394,087,444
$112,601,975
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$1,050,767,079
$1,432,511,980
$116,526,936
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$1,077,191,510
$1,471,995,591
$120,590,951
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$1,104,253,332
$1,512,567,470
$124,799,015
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$1,131,966,851
$1,554,257,610
$129,156,301
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$1,160,346,649
$1,597,096,836
$133,668,172
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$1,189,407,590
$1,641,116,817
$138,340,185
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$1,219,164,822
$1,686,350,100
$143,178,099
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$1,249,633,777
$1,732,830,124
$148,187,881
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$1,280,830,182
$1,780,591,255
$153,375,717
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$1,312,770,053
$1,829,668,801
$158,748,017
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$1,345,469,708
$1,880,099,047
$164,311,425
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$1,378,945,759
$1,931,919,277
$170,072,825
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
$1,413,215,124
December 2007
Page B-35
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B16 Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 1 (part 2)
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
Toll 1 - Time of Day tolls: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT); MLK: $0.25 (AM, PM),
Current Dollars
$0.15 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$28,336,431
$4,400,248
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$11,962,931
$39,179,032
$6,125,612
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$20,661,104
$40,627,819
$6,395,676
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$21,406,097
$42,130,181
$6,677,696
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$22,177,526
$43,688,099
$6,972,205
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$22,976,311
$45,303,626
$7,279,758
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$23,803,400
$46,978,893
$7,600,934
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$24,659,775
$48,716,109
$7,936,339
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$25,546,450
$50,517,565
$8,286,605
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$26,464,473
$52,385,636
$8,652,394
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$27,414,929
$54,322,787
$9,034,395
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$28,398,937
$56,331,570
$9,433,329
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$29,417,655
$58,414,636
$9,849,951
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$30,472,279
$60,574,730
$10,285,046
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$31,564,044
$62,814,702
$10,739,437
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$32,694,227
$65,028,920
$11,212,513
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$33,757,033
$67,321,190
$11,706,551
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$34,853,186
$69,694,262
$12,222,484
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$35,983,674
$72,150,984
$12,761,288
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$37,149,510
$74,694,306
$13,323,980
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$38,351,733
$77,327,281
$13,911,626
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$39,591,411
$80,053,067
$14,525,336
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$40,869,639
$82,874,938
$15,166,272
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$42,187,540
$85,796,280
$15,835,648
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$43,546,267
$88,820,598
$16,534,731
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$44,947,000
$91,951,525
$17,264,845
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$46,390,952
$95,192,816
$18,027,374
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$47,879,363
$98,548,363
$18,823,763
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$49,413,508
$102,022,192
$19,655,523
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$50,994,689
$105,618,475
$20,524,232
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$52,624,243
$109,341,526
$21,431,538
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$54,303,539
$113,195,815
$22,379,162
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$56,033,978
$117,185,967
$23,368,905
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$57,816,994
$121,316,772
$24,402,646
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$59,654,056
$124,971,440
$25,356,199
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$61,051,068
$128,736,205
$26,347,253
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$62,475,032
$132,614,383
$27,377,291
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$63,926,186
$136,609,391
$28,447,852
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$65,404,751
$140,724,749
$29,560,541
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$66,910,933
$144,964,082
$30,717,021
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$68,444,921
$149,331,125
$31,919,026
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$70,006,884
$153,829,725
$33,168,356
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$71,596,972
$158,463,846
$34,466,882
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$73,215,312
$163,237,569
$35,816,553
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$74,862,007
$168,155,101
$37,219,391
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$76,537,135
$173,220,773
$38,677,501
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$78,240,747
$178,439,049
$40,193,071
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$79,972,865
$183,814,526
$41,768,375
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$81,733,479
$189,351,938
$43,405,778
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$83,522,545
$195,056,165
$45,107,739
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
$85,339,984
December 2007
Page B-36
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B16 Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 1 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
Toll 1 - Time of Day tolls: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT); MLK: $0.25 (AM, PM),
Current Dollars
$0.15 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$200,932,232
$46,876,815
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$87,185,679
$206,985,316
$48,715,665
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$89,059,472
$213,220,748
$50,627,053
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$90,961,161
$219,644,024
$52,613,852
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$92,890,498
$226,260,800
$54,679,050
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$94,847,188
$233,076,906
$56,825,754
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$96,830,880
$240,098,348
$59,057,196
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$98,841,171
$247,331,311
$61,376,733
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$100,877,597
$254,782,167
$63,787,858
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$102,939,633
$261,804,600
$66,129,292
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$104,538,719
$269,020,589
$68,557,186
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$106,137,034
$276,435,469
$71,074,746
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$107,732,931
$284,054,722
$73,685,301
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$109,324,656
$291,883,980
$76,392,299
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$110,910,350
$299,929,032
$79,199,319
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$112,488,035
$308,195,826
$82,110,074
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$114,055,615
$316,690,474
$85,128,414
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$115,610,868
$325,419,255
$88,258,332
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$117,151,439
$334,388,623
$91,503,971
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$118,674,837
$343,605,210
$94,869,627
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$120,178,423
$353,075,828
$98,359,757
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$121,659,411
$362,807,481
$101,978,984
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$123,114,854
$372,807,362
$105,732,101
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$124,541,640
$383,082,865
$109,624,084
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$125,936,484
$393,641,586
$113,660,090
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$127,295,918
$404,491,333
$117,845,471
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$128,616,288
$415,640,125
$122,185,778
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$129,893,740
$427,096,206
$126,686,766
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$131,124,211
$438,868,045
$131,354,409
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$132,303,424
$450,964,346
$136,194,900
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$133,426,876
$463,394,050
$141,214,666
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$134,489,825
$476,166,349
$146,420,371
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$135,487,284
$489,290,684
$151,818,928
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$136,414,008
$502,776,758
$157,417,509
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$137,264,480
$516,634,543
$163,223,552
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$138,032,904
$530,874,282
$169,244,773
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$138,713,189
$545,506,505
$175,489,177
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$139,298,937
$560,542,028
$181,965,065
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$139,783,428
$575,991,967
$188,681,049
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$140,159,610
$591,867,746
$195,646,063
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$140,420,079
$608,181,101
$202,869,373
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$140,557,068
$624,944,092
$210,360,591
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$140,562,428
$642,169,114
$218,129,689
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$140,427,614
$659,868,900
$226,187,008
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$140,143,668
$678,056,537
$234,543,278
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$139,701,197
$696,745,470
$243,209,628
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$139,090,358
$715,949,517
$252,197,603
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$138,300,838
$735,682,875
$261,519,178
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$137,321,834
$755,960,135
$271,186,775
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
$136,142,031
December 2007
Page B-37
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B17 Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 2
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
Toll 2 - Time of Day tolls: $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT) ; MLK: $0.50 (AM, PM),
Current Dollars
$0.25 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$36,005,345
$3,788,185
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$20,243,908
$50,360,016
$5,318,526
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$32,649,174
$52,828,223
$5,600,338
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$34,401,838
$55,417,400
$5,897,105
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$36,245,336
$58,133,475
$6,209,622
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$38,184,271
$60,982,669
$6,538,724
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$40,223,478
$63,971,505
$6,885,294
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$42,368,028
$67,106,828
$7,250,260
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$44,623,248
$70,395,817
$7,634,600
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$46,994,731
$73,846,004
$8,039,343
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$49,488,347
$77,465,288
$8,465,575
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$52,110,258
$81,261,958
$8,914,438
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$54,866,934
$85,244,708
$9,387,135
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$57,765,167
$89,422,657
$9,884,933
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$60,812,084
$93,805,372
$10,409,167
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$64,015,168
$97,112,011
$10,860,379
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$66,192,259
$100,535,210
$11,331,319
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$68,442,439
$104,079,076
$11,822,855
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$70,768,118
$107,747,863
$12,335,895
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$73,171,782
$111,545,976
$12,871,386
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$75,655,996
$115,477,971
$13,430,318
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$78,223,409
$119,548,570
$14,013,724
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$80,876,753
$123,762,657
$14,622,683
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$83,618,849
$128,125,291
$15,258,321
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$86,452,604
$132,641,707
$15,921,817
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$89,381,022
$137,317,327
$16,614,398
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$92,407,201
$142,157,763
$17,337,349
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$95,534,335
$147,168,824
$18,092,010
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$98,765,722
$152,356,525
$18,879,782
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$102,104,763
$157,727,093
$19,702,127
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$105,554,967
$163,286,973
$20,560,571
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$109,119,953
$169,042,838
$21,456,711
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$112,803,453
$175,001,599
$22,392,211
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$116,609,319
$181,170,405
$23,368,813
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$120,541,522
$186,628,163
$24,267,598
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$123,796,392
$192,250,337
$25,201,285
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$127,135,132
$198,041,878
$26,171,240
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$130,559,732
$204,007,890
$27,178,883
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$134,072,219
$210,153,627
$28,225,688
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$137,674,663
$216,484,505
$29,313,190
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$141,369,175
$223,006,101
$30,442,983
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$145,157,903
$229,724,160
$31,616,723
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$149,043,039
$236,644,600
$32,836,133
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$153,026,816
$243,773,519
$34,103,003
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$157,111,507
$251,117,196
$35,419,192
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$161,299,429
$258,682,102
$36,786,636
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$165,592,940
$266,474,900
$38,207,345
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$169,994,442
$274,502,456
$39,683,407
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$174,506,377
$282,771,843
$41,216,996
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$179,131,231
$291,290,345
$42,810,368
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
$183,871,534
December 2007
Page B-38
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B17 Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 2
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
Toll 2 - Time of Day tolls: $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT) ; MLK: $0.50 (AM, PM),
Current Dollars
$0.25 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$300,065,466
$44,465,870
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$188,729,858
$309,104,938
$46,185,942
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$193,708,818
$318,416,725
$47,973,119
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$198,811,071
$328,009,029
$49,830,037
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$204,039,318
$337,890,300
$51,759,436
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$209,396,302
$348,069,246
$53,764,164
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$214,884,810
$358,554,832
$55,847,181
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$220,507,669
$369,356,296
$58,011,565
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$226,267,750
$380,483,155
$60,260,515
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$232,167,965
$390,970,221
$62,441,641
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$237,391,991
$401,746,338
$64,702,438
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$242,717,531
$412,819,472
$67,045,836
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$248,145,843
$424,197,808
$69,474,874
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$253,678,169
$435,889,760
$71,992,704
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$259,315,725
$447,903,972
$74,602,594
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$265,059,699
$460,249,325
$77,307,934
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$270,911,254
$472,934,947
$80,112,238
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$276,871,517
$485,970,217
$83,019,151
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$282,941,582
$499,364,771
$86,032,452
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$289,122,503
$513,128,512
$89,156,062
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$295,415,291
$527,271,617
$92,394,045
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$301,820,912
$541,804,541
$95,750,617
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$308,340,281
$556,738,029
$99,230,148
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$314,974,260
$572,083,120
$102,837,173
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$321,723,651
$587,851,161
$106,576,392
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$328,589,192
$604,053,809
$110,452,681
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$335,571,555
$620,703,042
$114,471,098
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$342,671,337
$637,811,170
$118,636,884
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$349,889,057
$655,390,840
$122,955,479
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$357,225,150
$673,455,050
$127,432,521
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$364,679,960
$692,017,155
$132,073,861
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$372,253,735
$711,090,878
$136,885,562
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$379,946,621
$730,690,320
$141,873,917
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$387,758,654
$750,829,972
$147,045,449
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$395,689,753
$771,524,723
$152,406,925
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$403,739,712
$792,789,873
$157,965,360
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$411,908,194
$814,641,144
$163,728,033
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$420,194,720
$837,094,691
$169,702,492
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$428,598,665
$860,167,113
$175,896,563
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$437,119,242
$883,875,469
$182,318,365
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$445,755,500
$908,237,287
$188,976,318
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$454,506,309
$933,270,577
$195,879,154
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$463,370,350
$958,993,847
$203,035,928
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$472,346,108
$985,426,115
$210,456,035
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$481,431,856
$1,012,586,923
$218,149,216
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$490,625,645
$1,040,496,350
$226,125,573
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$499,925,292
$1,069,175,030
$234,395,587
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$509,328,367
$1,098,644,167
$242,970,125
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$518,832,179
$1,128,925,547
$251,860,458
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
$528,433,760
December 2007
Page B-39
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B18 Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 3
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
Toll 3 - Time of Day tolls: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT) ; MLK: $0.75 (AM, PM),
Current Dollars
$0.50 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$44,395,324
$3,592,373
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$28,829,699
$62,201,702
$5,053,374
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$44,756,013
$65,362,487
$5,331,449
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$47,204,991
$68,683,888
$5,624,859
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$49,784,070
$72,174,066
$5,934,452
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$52,500,031
$75,841,597
$6,261,122
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$55,360,008
$79,695,495
$6,605,813
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$58,371,498
$83,745,229
$6,969,520
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$61,542,388
$88,000,750
$7,353,296
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$64,880,967
$92,472,516
$7,758,249
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$68,395,953
$97,171,515
$8,185,552
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$72,096,508
$102,109,294
$8,636,439
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$75,992,270
$107,297,987
$9,112,215
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$80,093,366
$112,750,344
$9,614,257
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$84,410,447
$118,479,763
$10,144,017
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$88,954,708
$122,656,174
$10,577,722
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$92,019,078
$126,979,804
$11,030,168
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$95,188,184
$131,455,843
$11,502,171
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$98,465,568
$136,089,661
$11,994,585
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$101,854,889
$140,886,822
$12,508,300
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$105,359,928
$145,853,082
$13,044,247
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$108,984,591
$150,994,403
$13,603,395
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$112,732,916
$156,316,956
$14,186,758
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$116,609,072
$161,827,129
$14,795,394
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$120,617,370
$167,531,535
$15,430,407
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$124,762,260
$173,437,021
$16,092,950
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$129,048,343
$179,550,676
$16,784,228
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$133,480,370
$185,879,838
$17,505,496
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$138,063,250
$192,432,102
$18,258,068
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$142,802,054
$199,215,334
$19,043,313
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$147,702,022
$206,237,674
$19,862,662
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$152,768,564
$213,507,552
$20,717,607
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$158,007,270
$221,033,693
$21,609,709
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$163,423,916
$228,825,131
$22,540,596
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$169,024,464
$235,718,488
$23,395,571
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$173,758,744
$242,819,508
$24,283,371
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$178,622,218
$250,134,445
$25,205,268
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$183,618,271
$257,669,746
$26,162,585
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$188,750,373
$265,432,047
$27,156,696
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$194,022,075
$273,428,187
$28,189,029
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$199,437,017
$281,665,211
$29,261,068
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$204,998,927
$290,150,376
$30,374,356
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$210,711,622
$298,891,156
$31,530,493
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$216,579,011
$307,895,252
$32,731,146
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$222,605,096
$317,170,596
$33,978,044
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$228,793,977
$326,725,360
$35,272,986
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$235,149,850
$336,567,962
$36,617,839
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$241,677,010
$346,707,072
$38,014,545
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$248,379,854
$357,151,622
$39,465,123
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$255,262,884
$367,910,815
$40,971,668
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
$262,330,705
December 2007
Page B-40
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B18 Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 3 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
Toll 3 - Time of Day tolls: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT) ; MLK: $0.75 (AM, PM),
Current Dollars
$0.50 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$378,994,128
$42,536,359
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$269,588,031
$390,411,326
$44,161,462
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$277,039,686
$402,172,468
$45,849,329
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$284,690,604
$414,287,913
$47,602,405
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$292,545,834
$426,768,337
$49,423,233
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$300,610,541
$439,624,733
$51,314,453
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$308,890,008
$452,868,428
$53,278,810
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$317,389,636
$466,511,089
$55,319,157
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$326,114,951
$480,564,736
$57,438,458
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$335,071,602
$493,810,301
$59,491,438
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$343,182,274
$507,420,948
$61,618,662
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$351,475,916
$521,406,738
$63,822,842
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$359,956,103
$535,778,011
$66,106,787
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$368,626,459
$550,545,392
$68,473,410
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$377,490,650
$565,719,799
$70,925,732
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$386,552,389
$581,312,451
$73,466,883
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$395,815,431
$597,334,876
$76,100,111
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$405,283,573
$613,798,918
$78,828,782
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$414,960,653
$630,716,751
$81,656,385
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$424,850,550
$648,100,882
$84,586,540
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$434,957,182
$665,964,162
$87,622,998
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$445,284,504
$684,319,799
$90,769,649
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$455,836,507
$703,181,364
$94,030,526
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$466,617,217
$722,562,800
$97,409,812
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$477,630,691
$742,478,437
$100,911,842
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$488,881,017
$762,942,999
$104,541,113
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$500,372,314
$783,971,616
$108,302,285
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$512,108,723
$805,579,833
$112,200,192
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$524,094,412
$827,783,627
$116,239,846
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$536,333,570
$850,599,414
$120,426,443
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$548,830,401
$874,044,060
$124,765,373
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$561,589,128
$898,134,899
$129,262,221
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$574,613,985
$922,889,743
$133,922,781
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$587,909,214
$948,326,891
$138,753,060
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$601,479,062
$974,465,151
$143,759,287
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$615,327,778
$1,001,323,847
$148,947,921
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$629,459,606
$1,028,922,835
$154,325,659
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$643,878,786
$1,057,282,521
$159,899,446
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$658,589,541
$1,086,423,870
$165,676,482
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$673,596,080
$1,116,368,428
$171,664,236
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$688,902,588
$1,147,138,333
$177,870,451
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$704,513,222
$1,178,756,334
$184,303,155
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$720,432,105
$1,211,245,805
$190,970,675
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$736,663,319
$1,244,630,767
$197,881,645
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$753,210,898
$1,278,935,903
$205,045,018
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$770,078,823
$1,314,186,574
$212,470,079
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$787,271,011
$1,350,408,841
$220,166,454
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$804,791,312
$1,387,629,485
$228,144,128
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$822,643,494
$1,425,876,023
$236,413,453
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
$840,831,240
December 2007
Page B-41
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B19 Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 4
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
Toll 4 - Time of Day tolls: $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT) ; MLK: $1.00 (AM, PM),
Current Dollars
$0.75 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$47,427,599
$2,959,453
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$32,494,893
$67,283,925
$4,205,188
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$50,686,421
$71,590,066
$4,481,477
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$54,282,542
$76,171,799
$4,775,926
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$58,120,914
$81,046,760
$5,089,728
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$62,217,449
$86,233,716
$5,424,156
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$66,589,093
$91,752,635
$5,780,566
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$71,253,885
$97,624,763
$6,160,403
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$76,231,039
$103,872,704
$6,565,208
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$81,541,009
$110,520,510
$6,996,624
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$87,205,573
$117,593,774
$7,456,398
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$93,247,921
$125,119,723
$7,946,398
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$99,692,739
$133,127,329
$8,468,609
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$106,566,314
$141,647,418
$9,025,151
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$113,896,627
$150,712,790
$9,618,281
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$121,713,471
$156,025,416
$10,020,981
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$125,945,060
$161,525,312
$10,440,764
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$130,323,095
$167,219,079
$10,878,362
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$134,852,614
$173,113,551
$11,334,539
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$139,538,825
$179,215,804
$11,810,095
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$144,387,116
$185,533,161
$12,305,861
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$149,403,056
$192,073,205
$12,822,706
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$154,592,406
$198,843,786
$13,361,537
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$159,961,123
$205,853,029
$13,923,300
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$165,515,364
$213,109,348
$14,508,981
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$171,261,499
$220,621,453
$15,119,610
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$177,206,114
$228,398,359
$15,756,263
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$183,356,018
$236,449,401
$16,420,059
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$189,718,251
$244,784,243
$17,112,170
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$196,300,093
$253,412,887
$17,833,815
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$203,109,073
$262,345,691
$18,586,271
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$210,152,972
$271,593,377
$19,370,865
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$217,439,837
$281,167,043
$20,188,985
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$224,977,990
$291,078,182
$21,042,081
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$232,776,030
$299,846,912
$21,823,089
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$239,459,650
$308,879,800
$22,633,535
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$246,332,346
$318,184,804
$23,474,544
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$253,399,354
$327,770,121
$24,347,283
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$260,666,050
$337,644,196
$25,252,965
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$268,137,955
$347,815,728
$26,192,850
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$275,820,737
$358,293,677
$27,168,246
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$283,720,215
$369,087,274
$28,180,511
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$291,842,364
$380,206,028
$29,231,058
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$300,193,318
$391,659,734
$30,321,353
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$308,779,372
$403,458,484
$31,452,917
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$317,606,992
$415,612,671
$32,627,333
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$326,682,812
$428,133,002
$33,846,244
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$336,013,645
$441,030,509
$35,111,357
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$345,606,480
$454,316,553
$36,424,444
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$355,468,493
$468,002,839
$37,787,347
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
$365,607,050
December 2007
Page B-42
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B19 Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 4 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
Toll 4 - Time of Day tolls: $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT) ; MLK: $1.00 (AM, PM),
Current Dollars
$0.75 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$482,101,425
$39,201,978
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$376,029,709
$496,624,730
$40,670,325
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$386,744,227
$511,585,550
$42,194,451
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$397,758,564
$526,997,065
$43,776,502
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$409,080,889
$542,872,851
$45,418,704
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$420,719,585
$559,226,896
$47,123,371
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$432,683,253
$576,073,606
$48,892,907
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$444,980,718
$593,427,824
$50,729,810
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$457,621,033
$611,304,837
$52,636,673
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$470,613,489
$628,153,926
$54,480,331
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$482,537,007
$645,467,419
$56,389,571
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$494,751,479
$663,258,115
$58,366,756
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$507,263,566
$681,539,167
$60,414,335
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$520,080,067
$700,324,090
$62,534,845
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$533,207,913
$719,626,773
$64,730,917
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$546,654,177
$739,461,486
$67,005,277
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$560,426,071
$759,842,893
$69,360,750
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$574,530,951
$780,786,062
$71,800,263
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$588,976,315
$802,306,478
$74,326,853
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$603,769,809
$824,420,051
$76,943,665
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$618,919,226
$847,143,128
$79,653,959
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$634,432,509
$870,492,511
$82,461,115
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$650,317,753
$894,485,461
$85,368,635
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$666,583,205
$919,139,716
$88,380,150
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$683,237,269
$944,473,504
$91,499,423
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$700,288,504
$970,505,555
$94,730,354
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$717,745,629
$997,255,115
$98,076,986
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$735,617,521
$1,024,741,959
$101,543,510
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$753,913,220
$1,052,986,409
$105,134,270
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$772,641,927
$1,082,009,347
$108,853,768
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$791,813,010
$1,111,832,230
$112,706,672
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$811,435,998
$1,142,477,106
$116,697,819
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$831,520,592
$1,173,966,631
$120,832,225
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$852,076,657
$1,206,324,086
$125,115,088
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$873,114,228
$1,239,573,394
$129,551,797
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$894,643,510
$1,273,739,135
$134,147,937
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$916,674,879
$1,308,846,570
$138,909,299
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$939,218,880
$1,344,921,654
$143,841,887
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$962,286,233
$1,381,991,057
$148,951,921
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$985,887,828
$1,420,082,185
$154,245,853
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$1,010,034,728
$1,459,223,201
$159,730,370
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$1,034,738,171
$1,499,443,040
$165,412,404
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$1,060,009,563
$1,540,771,439
$171,299,140
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$1,085,860,488
$1,583,238,952
$177,398,030
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$1,112,302,698
$1,626,876,975
$183,716,795
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$1,139,348,119
$1,671,717,772
$190,263,442
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$1,167,008,846
$1,717,794,493
$197,046,272
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$1,195,297,145
$1,765,141,204
$204,073,889
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$1,224,225,451
$1,813,792,908
$211,355,214
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
$1,253,806,365
December 2007
Page B-43
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B20 Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 5
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
Toll 5 - Time of Day tolls: $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT) ; MLK: $1.25 (AM, PM),
Current Dollars
$1.00 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$51,641,701
$2,656,180
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$37,012,268
$73,414,211
$3,782,548
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$57,239,347
$78,274,626
$4,039,927
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$61,408,652
$83,456,827
$4,314,828
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$65,867,040
$88,982,117
$4,608,446
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$70,634,088
$94,873,210
$4,922,055
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$75,730,688
$101,154,326
$5,257,016
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$81,179,126
$107,851,286
$5,614,786
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$87,003,179
$114,991,620
$5,996,917
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$93,228,217
$122,604,683
$6,405,068
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$99,881,300
$130,721,771
$6,841,014
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$106,991,302
$139,376,254
$7,306,648
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$114,589,020
$148,603,710
$7,803,992
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$122,707,312
$158,442,074
$8,335,207
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$131,381,226
$168,931,789
$8,902,602
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$140,648,150
$174,886,635
$9,268,798
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$145,558,463
$181,051,389
$9,650,278
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$150,639,658
$187,433,450
$10,047,689
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$155,897,658
$194,040,479
$10,461,704
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$161,338,589
$200,880,406
$10,893,026
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$166,968,787
$207,961,441
$11,342,390
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$172,794,807
$215,292,081
$11,810,558
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$178,823,431
$222,881,127
$12,298,329
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$185,061,673
$230,737,687
$12,806,534
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$191,516,788
$238,871,191
$13,336,040
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$198,196,282
$247,291,400
$13,887,752
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$205,107,919
$256,008,422
$14,462,614
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$212,259,729
$265,032,719
$15,061,608
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$219,660,019
$274,375,122
$15,685,762
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$227,317,380
$284,046,845
$16,336,145
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$235,240,701
$294,059,496
$17,013,874
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$243,439,173
$304,425,094
$17,720,113
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$251,922,306
$315,156,078
$18,456,077
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$260,699,933
$326,265,330
$19,223,033
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$269,782,227
$336,094,073
$19,923,181
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$277,606,719
$346,218,907
$20,649,284
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$285,655,704
$356,648,752
$21,402,320
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$293,935,525
$367,392,795
$22,183,303
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$302,452,704
$378,460,503
$22,993,287
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$311,213,941
$389,861,626
$23,833,365
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$320,226,121
$401,606,207
$24,704,672
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$329,496,320
$413,704,594
$25,608,387
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$339,031,810
$426,167,445
$26,545,733
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$348,840,060
$439,005,740
$27,517,983
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$358,928,747
$452,230,787
$28,526,453
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$369,305,759
$465,854,240
$29,572,516
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$379,979,199
$479,888,099
$30,657,591
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$390,957,394
$494,344,728
$31,783,156
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$402,248,899
$509,236,863
$32,950,745
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$413,862,502
$524,577,623
$34,161,949
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
$425,807,232
December 2007
Page B-44
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B20 Toll on MLK with time of day toll rate concept - Toll Alternative 5 (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
Toll 5 - Time of Day tolls: $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT) ; MLK: $1.25 (AM, PM),
Current Dollars
$1.00 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
Net Revenue
$540,380,524
$35,418,421
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$438,092,365
$556,659,487
$36,721,878
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$450,727,431
$573,428,854
$38,074,102
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$463,722,217
$590,703,399
$39,476,944
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$477,086,781
$608,498,339
$40,932,326
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$490,831,450
$626,829,351
$42,442,243
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$504,966,836
$645,712,585
$44,008,768
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$519,503,836
$665,164,677
$45,634,053
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$534,453,643
$685,202,763
$47,320,334
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$549,827,754
$704,088,664
$48,947,865
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$564,004,210
$723,495,108
$50,632,406
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$578,536,332
$743,436,442
$52,375,985
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$593,432,664
$763,927,409
$54,180,702
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$608,701,941
$784,983,158
$56,048,735
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$624,353,090
$806,619,256
$57,982,339
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$640,395,238
$828,851,699
$59,983,851
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$656,837,712
$851,696,924
$62,055,690
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$673,690,042
$875,171,821
$64,200,367
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$690,961,970
$899,293,744
$66,420,479
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$708,663,449
$924,080,528
$68,718,719
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$726,804,649
$949,550,497
$71,097,878
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$745,395,959
$975,722,483
$73,560,846
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$764,447,994
$1,002,615,834
$76,110,619
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$783,971,594
$1,030,250,433
$78,750,300
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$803,977,836
$1,058,646,710
$81,483,105
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$824,478,028
$1,087,825,660
$84,312,367
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$845,483,721
$1,117,808,855
$87,241,538
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$867,006,709
$1,148,618,462
$90,274,197
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$889,059,036
$1,180,277,258
$93,414,050
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$911,652,996
$1,212,808,650
$96,664,941
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$934,801,140
$1,246,236,688
$100,030,849
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$958,516,280
$1,280,586,087
$103,515,901
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$982,811,492
$1,315,882,241
$107,124,372
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$1,007,700,121
$1,352,151,245
$110,860,692
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$1,033,195,784
$1,389,419,914
$114,729,451
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$1,059,312,377
$1,427,715,801
$118,735,408
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$1,086,064,074
$1,467,067,217
$122,883,492
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$1,113,465,335
$1,507,503,257
$127,178,814
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$1,141,530,910
$1,549,053,816
$131,626,667
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$1,170,275,841
$1,591,749,612
$136,232,541
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$1,199,715,467
$1,635,622,210
$141,002,121
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$1,229,865,429
$1,680,704,048
$145,941,302
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$1,260,741,673
$1,727,028,453
$151,056,191
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$1,292,360,451
$1,774,629,675
$156,353,120
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$1,324,738,331
$1,823,542,905
$161,838,648
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$1,357,892,195
$1,873,804,306
$167,519,576
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$1,391,839,247
$1,925,451,038
$173,402,950
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$1,426,597,011
$1,978,521,282
$179,496,076
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$1,462,183,343
$2,033,054,275
$185,806,521
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
$1,498,616,424
December 2007
Page B-45
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B21 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept – Low Demand Scenario
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
$1.00 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$38,211,417
$3,145,001
$53,011,499
$4,387,939
$55,157,973
$4,591,629
$57,391,358
$4,804,829
$59,715,175
$5,027,987
$62,133,085
$5,261,571
$64,648,898
$5,506,069
$67,266,578
$5,761,995
$69,990,250
$6,029,885
$72,824,205
$6,310,302
$75,772,909
$6,603,834
$78,841,009
$6,911,098
$82,033,337
$7,232,740
$85,354,926
$7,569,436
$88,811,007
$7,921,894
$91,941,596
$8,261,418
$95,182,537
$8,615,644
$98,537,721
$8,985,214
$102,011,176
$9,370,798
$105,607,070
$9,773,097
$109,329,719
$10,192,841
$113,183,592
$10,630,793
$117,173,313
$11,087,750
$121,303,672
$11,564,544
$125,579,627
$12,062,042
$130,006,309
$12,581,152
$134,589,031
$13,122,820
$139,333,295
$13,688,034
$144,244,793
$14,277,826
$149,329,422
$14,893,275
$154,593,284
$15,535,504
$160,042,698
$16,205,688
$165,684,203
$16,905,054
$171,524,571
$17,634,884
$176,691,748
$18,305,441
$182,014,587
$19,001,796
$187,497,777
$19,724,949
$193,146,147
$20,475,943
$198,964,675
$21,255,860
$204,958,486
$22,065,823
$211,132,860
$22,907,001
$217,493,238
$23,780,608
$224,045,221
$24,687,906
$230,794,584
$25,630,207
$237,747,271
$26,608,872
$244,909,407
$27,625,317
$252,287,303
$28,681,015
$259,887,458
$29,777,494
$267,716,568
$30,916,343
$275,781,529
$32,099,215
December 2007
Operations
$6,004,394
$6,214,548
$6,432,057
$6,657,179
$6,890,180
$7,131,337
$7,380,934
$7,639,266
$7,906,641
$8,183,373
$8,469,791
$8,766,234
$9,073,052
$9,390,609
$9,719,280
$10,059,455
$10,411,536
$10,775,939
$11,153,097
$11,543,456
$11,947,477
$12,365,638
$12,798,436
$13,246,381
$13,710,004
$14,189,854
$14,686,499
$15,200,527
$15,732,545
$16,283,184
$16,853,096
$17,442,954
$18,053,458
$18,685,329
$19,339,315
$20,016,191
$20,716,758
$21,441,844
$22,192,309
$22,969,040
$23,772,956
$24,605,010
$25,466,185
$26,357,501
$27,280,014
$28,234,814
$29,223,033
$30,245,839
$31,304,443
$32,400,099
Maintenance
$5,968,858
$6,177,768
$6,393,990
$6,617,780
$6,849,402
$7,089,131
$7,337,251
$7,594,054
$7,859,846
$8,134,941
$8,419,664
$8,714,352
$9,019,354
$9,335,032
$9,661,758
$9,999,919
$10,349,916
$10,712,164
$11,087,089
$11,475,137
$11,876,767
$12,292,454
$12,722,690
$13,167,984
$13,628,864
$14,105,874
$14,599,579
$15,110,565
$15,639,434
$16,186,815
$16,753,353
$17,339,720
$17,946,611
$18,574,742
$19,224,858
$19,897,728
$20,594,149
$21,314,944
$22,060,967
$22,833,101
$23,632,259
$24,459,388
$25,315,467
$26,201,508
$27,118,561
$28,067,711
$29,050,080
$30,066,833
$31,119,172
$32,208,343
Net Revenue
$23,093,164
$36,231,244
$37,740,297
$39,311,570
$40,947,606
$42,651,047
$44,424,645
$46,271,263
$48,193,879
$50,195,590
$52,279,621
$54,449,325
$56,708,191
$59,059,849
$61,508,076
$63,620,804
$65,805,441
$68,064,405
$70,400,191
$72,815,380
$75,312,634
$77,894,706
$80,564,437
$83,324,764
$86,178,717
$89,129,429
$92,180,133
$95,334,169
$98,594,987
$101,966,149
$105,451,332
$109,054,335
$112,779,080
$116,629,616
$119,822,134
$123,098,873
$126,461,921
$129,913,416
$133,455,539
$137,090,523
$140,820,644
$144,648,232
$148,575,663
$152,605,367
$156,739,824
$160,981,565
$165,333,175
$169,797,292
$174,376,608
$179,073,871
Page B-46
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B21 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept – Low Demand Scenario (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
$1.00 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
$284,089,448
$33,327,826
$292,647,642
$34,603,959
$301,463,653
$35,929,469
$310,545,245
$37,306,282
$319,900,421
$38,736,400
$329,537,421
$40,221,905
$339,464,736
$41,764,959
$349,691,111
$43,367,811
$360,225,556
$45,032,796
$370,154,272
$46,646,019
$380,356,650
$48,317,688
$390,840,230
$50,049,942
$401,612,764
$51,844,994
$412,682,215
$53,705,142
$424,056,769
$55,632,767
$435,744,834
$57,630,338
$447,755,051
$59,700,415
$460,096,299
$61,845,652
$472,777,703
$64,068,801
$485,808,639
$66,372,716
$499,198,740
$68,760,355
$512,957,905
$71,234,787
$527,096,307
$73,799,191
$541,624,399
$76,456,867
$556,552,921
$79,211,235
$571,892,911
$82,065,839
$587,655,710
$85,024,358
$603,852,970
$88,090,604
$620,496,668
$91,268,529
$637,599,107
$94,562,235
$655,172,933
$97,975,970
$673,231,137
$101,514,144
$691,787,070
$105,181,325
$710,854,451
$108,982,255
$730,447,377
$112,921,846
$750,580,332
$117,005,196
$771,268,203
$121,237,588
$792,526,283
$125,624,503
$814,370,288
$130,171,622
$836,816,369
$134,884,839
$859,881,121
$139,770,263
$883,581,594
$144,834,231
$907,935,312
$150,083,314
$932,960,279
$155,524,325
$958,674,996
$161,164,331
$985,098,476
$167,010,660
$1,012,250,253
$173,070,909
$1,040,150,400
$179,352,960
$1,068,819,546
$185,864,985
December 2007
Operations
$33,534,102
$34,707,796
$35,922,569
$37,179,859
$38,481,154
$39,827,994
$41,221,974
$42,664,743
$44,158,009
$45,703,539
$47,303,163
$48,958,774
$50,672,331
$52,445,863
$54,281,468
$56,181,319
$58,147,666
$60,182,834
$62,289,233
$64,469,356
$66,725,784
$69,061,186
$71,478,328
$73,980,069
$76,569,371
$79,249,299
$82,023,025
$84,893,831
$87,865,115
$90,940,394
$94,123,308
$97,417,623
$100,827,240
$104,356,194
$108,008,660
$111,788,964
$115,701,577
$119,751,133
$123,942,422
$128,280,407
$132,770,221
$137,417,179
$142,226,780
$147,204,717
$152,356,883
$157,689,373
$163,208,502
$168,920,799
$174,833,027
Maintenance
$33,335,635
$34,502,383
$35,709,966
$36,959,815
$38,253,408
$39,592,278
$40,978,007
$42,412,238
$43,896,666
$45,433,049
$47,023,206
$48,669,018
$50,372,434
$52,135,469
$53,960,211
$55,848,818
$57,803,527
$59,826,650
$61,920,583
$64,087,803
$66,330,876
$68,652,457
$71,055,293
$73,542,228
$76,116,206
$78,780,273
$81,537,583
$84,391,398
$87,345,097
$90,402,176
$93,566,252
$96,841,071
$100,230,508
$103,738,576
$107,369,426
$111,127,356
$115,016,813
$119,042,402
$123,208,886
$127,521,197
$131,984,439
$136,603,894
$141,385,030
$146,333,507
$151,455,179
$156,756,111
$162,242,574
$167,921,064
$173,798,302
Net Revenue
$183,891,884
$188,833,504
$193,901,649
$199,099,290
$204,429,458
$209,895,244
$215,499,795
$221,246,319
$227,138,084
$232,371,665
$237,712,592
$243,162,496
$248,723,004
$254,395,741
$260,182,323
$266,084,358
$272,103,444
$278,241,164
$284,499,087
$290,878,764
$297,381,724
$304,009,475
$310,763,495
$317,645,234
$324,656,109
$331,797,499
$339,070,744
$346,477,138
$354,017,926
$361,694,303
$369,507,403
$377,458,299
$385,547,996
$393,777,427
$402,147,444
$410,658,817
$419,312,224
$428,108,245
$437,047,358
$446,129,927
$455,356,198
$464,726,290
$474,240,187
$483,897,730
$493,698,603
$503,642,332
$513,728,267
$523,955,576
$534,323,232
Page B-47
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B22 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept – High Demand Scenario
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
$1.00 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll - HIGH DEMAND SCENARIO
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$42,950,228
$3,523,065
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$59,759,574
$4,925,232
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$62,360,671
$5,164,136
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$65,074,983
$5,414,672
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$67,907,438
$5,677,409
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$70,863,179
$5,952,944
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$73,947,571
$6,241,902
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$77,166,215
$6,544,939
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$80,524,954
$6,862,744
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$84,029,885
$7,196,039
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$87,687,371
$7,545,580
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$91,504,054
$7,912,164
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$95,486,862
$8,296,624
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$99,643,025
$8,699,835
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$103,980,090
$9,122,713
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$107,645,388
$9,513,324
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$111,439,888
$9,920,834
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$115,368,144
$10,345,982
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$119,434,871
$10,789,538
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$123,644,950
$11,252,305
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$128,003,435
$11,735,123
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$132,515,556
$12,238,868
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$137,186,729
$12,764,456
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$142,022,561
$13,312,841
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$147,028,857
$13,885,021
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$152,211,624
$14,482,037
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$157,577,084
$15,104,976
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$163,131,676
$15,754,973
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$168,882,067
$16,433,213
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$174,835,160
$17,140,934
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$180,998,100
$17,879,427
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$187,378,283
$18,650,041
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$193,983,367
$19,454,185
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$200,821,281
$20,293,329
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$206,871,022
$21,064,212
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$213,103,011
$21,864,728
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$219,522,740
$22,696,026
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$226,135,862
$23,559,302
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$232,948,205
$24,455,799
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$239,965,770
$25,386,806
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$247,194,738
$26,353,664
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$254,641,480
$27,357,768
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$262,312,555
$28,400,565
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$270,214,720
$29,483,560
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$278,354,939
$30,608,318
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$286,740,381
$31,776,463
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$295,378,435
$32,989,684
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$304,276,711
$34,249,736
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$313,443,046
$35,558,444
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$322,885,518
$36,917,702
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
December 2007
Net Revenue
$27,453,911
$42,442,026
$44,370,488
$46,385,352
$48,490,446
$50,689,767
$52,987,485
$55,387,955
$57,895,723
$60,515,532
$63,252,336
$66,111,304
$69,097,831
$72,217,550
$75,476,339
$78,072,690
$80,757,601
$83,534,059
$86,405,147
$89,374,052
$92,444,068
$95,618,595
$98,901,147
$102,295,355
$105,804,967
$109,433,858
$113,186,029
$117,065,611
$121,076,874
$125,224,227
$129,512,224
$133,945,567
$138,529,114
$143,267,881
$147,242,636
$151,324,364
$155,515,807
$159,819,772
$164,239,130
$168,776,824
$173,435,859
$178,219,314
$183,130,338
$188,172,150
$193,348,046
$198,661,393
$204,115,638
$209,714,302
$215,460,987
$221,359,374
Page B-48
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B22 No Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept – High Demand Scenario (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
$1.00 auto toll alternative - No MLK Toll - HIGH DEMAND SCENARIO
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$332,612,445
$38,329,481
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$342,632,394
$39,795,827
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$352,954,195
$41,318,868
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$363,586,940
$42,900,816
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$374,539,997
$44,543,967
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$385,823,014
$46,250,710
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$397,445,933
$48,023,527
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$409,418,991
$49,864,997
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$421,752,739
$51,777,800
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$433,377,298
$53,630,981
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$445,322,260
$55,551,254
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$457,596,455
$57,541,071
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$470,208,957
$59,602,973
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$483,169,092
$61,739,595
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$496,486,440
$63,953,669
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$510,170,847
$66,248,028
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$524,232,431
$68,625,607
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$538,681,588
$71,089,453
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$553,528,999
$73,642,722
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$568,785,642
$76,288,687
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$584,462,796
$79,030,742
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$600,572,052
$81,872,407
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$617,125,319
$84,817,330
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$634,134,836
$87,869,294
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$651,613,177
$91,032,223
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$669,573,265
$94,310,183
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$688,028,379
$97,707,393
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$706,992,161
$101,228,225
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$726,478,632
$104,877,213
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$746,502,199
$108,659,061
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$767,077,666
$112,578,642
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$788,220,244
$116,641,013
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$809,945,565
$120,851,415
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$832,269,690
$125,215,284
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$855,209,123
$129,738,256
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$878,780,824
$134,426,177
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$903,002,221
$139,285,106
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$927,891,220
$144,321,327
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$953,466,221
$149,541,359
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$979,746,134
$154,951,958
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$1,006,750,387
$160,560,131
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$1,034,498,944
$166,373,147
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$1,063,012,322
$172,398,538
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$1,092,311,599
$178,644,121
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$1,122,418,437
$185,117,998
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$1,153,355,095
$191,828,571
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$1,185,144,445
$198,784,555
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$1,217,809,989
$205,994,986
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$1,251,375,877
$213,469,234
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
December 2007
Net Revenue
$227,413,226
$233,626,389
$240,002,792
$246,546,451
$253,261,468
$260,152,032
$267,222,424
$274,477,014
$281,920,263
$288,609,729
$295,444,637
$302,427,592
$309,561,219
$316,848,164
$324,291,092
$331,892,682
$339,655,632
$347,582,651
$355,676,462
$363,939,796
$372,375,394
$380,986,002
$389,774,369
$398,743,245
$407,895,377
$417,233,510
$426,760,378
$436,478,707
$446,391,207
$456,500,569
$466,809,465
$477,320,538
$488,036,402
$498,959,636
$510,092,780
$521,438,328
$532,998,725
$544,776,358
$556,773,554
$568,992,572
$581,435,595
$594,104,725
$607,001,972
$620,129,254
$633,488,378
$647,081,040
$660,908,814
$674,973,139
$689,275,313
Page B-49
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B23 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept – Low Demand Scenario
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
$1.00 auto toll alternative - with MLK Toll - LOW DEMAND SCENARIO
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$41,534,996
$3,546,743
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$57,633,916
$4,949,901
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$59,979,571
$5,181,190
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$62,420,692
$5,423,348
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$64,961,164
$5,676,888
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$67,605,032
$5,942,349
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$70,356,503
$6,220,294
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$73,219,957
$6,511,312
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$76,199,951
$6,816,021
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$79,301,228
$7,135,070
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$82,528,725
$7,469,136
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$85,887,579
$7,818,930
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$89,383,135
$8,185,195
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$93,020,957
$8,568,712
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$96,806,836
$8,970,296
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$100,219,277
$9,355,588
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$103,752,007
$9,757,595
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$107,409,265
$10,177,049
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$111,195,442
$10,614,712
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$115,115,081
$11,071,381
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$119,172,887
$11,547,890
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$123,373,732
$12,045,106
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$127,722,656
$12,563,938
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$132,224,879
$13,105,333
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$136,885,806
$13,670,279
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$141,711,031
$14,259,810
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$146,706,345
$14,875,005
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$151,877,744
$15,516,988
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$157,231,434
$16,186,936
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$162,773,842
$16,886,077
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$168,511,620
$17,615,692
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$174,451,655
$18,377,120
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$180,601,075
$19,171,760
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$186,967,263
$20,001,069
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$192,599,652
$20,763,274
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$198,401,717
$21,554,855
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$204,378,568
$22,376,954
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$210,535,473
$23,230,760
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$216,877,854
$24,117,507
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$223,411,299
$25,038,476
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$230,141,565
$25,995,000
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$237,074,579
$26,988,465
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$244,216,451
$28,020,310
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$251,573,472
$29,092,029
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$259,152,122
$30,205,179
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$266,959,080
$31,361,373
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$275,001,222
$32,562,292
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$283,285,634
$33,809,679
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$291,819,614
$35,105,348
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$300,610,680
$36,451,184
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
December 2007
Net Revenue
$26,015,001
$40,291,700
$41,972,334
$43,722,385
$45,544,694
$47,442,215
$49,418,025
$51,475,325
$53,617,443
$55,847,844
$58,170,134
$60,588,063
$63,105,533
$65,726,605
$68,455,503
$70,804,315
$73,232,959
$75,744,113
$78,340,543
$81,025,107
$83,800,754
$86,670,533
$89,637,592
$92,705,182
$95,876,659
$99,155,492
$102,545,262
$106,049,664
$109,672,518
$113,417,766
$117,289,479
$121,291,860
$125,429,248
$129,706,123
$133,272,205
$136,932,943
$140,690,708
$144,547,924
$148,507,072
$152,570,683
$156,741,349
$161,021,716
$165,414,490
$169,922,433
$174,548,369
$179,295,182
$184,165,817
$189,163,283
$194,290,650
$199,551,053
Page B-50
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B23 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept – Low Demand Scenario (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
$1.00 auto toll alternative - with MLK Toll - LOW DEMAND SCENARIO
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$309,666,577
$37,849,146
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$318,995,282
$39,301,268
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$328,605,015
$40,809,666
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$338,504,241
$42,376,540
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$348,701,681
$44,004,174
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$359,206,320
$45,694,944
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$370,027,410
$47,451,318
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$381,174,486
$49,275,862
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$392,657,367
$51,171,242
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$403,479,986
$53,008,040
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$414,600,903
$54,911,492
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$426,028,340
$56,884,038
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$437,770,746
$58,928,206
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$449,836,803
$61,046,620
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$462,235,429
$63,241,998
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$474,975,793
$65,517,161
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$488,067,314
$67,875,031
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$501,519,669
$70,318,641
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$515,342,805
$72,851,132
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$529,546,941
$75,475,765
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$544,142,579
$78,195,919
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$559,140,508
$81,015,098
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$574,551,819
$83,936,934
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$590,387,903
$86,965,196
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$606,660,470
$90,103,790
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$623,381,549
$93,356,768
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$640,563,503
$96,728,328
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$658,219,034
$100,222,828
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$676,361,197
$103,844,784
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$695,003,402
$107,598,878
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$714,159,433
$111,489,968
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$733,843,453
$115,523,089
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$754,070,013
$119,703,464
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$774,854,068
$124,036,508
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$796,210,983
$128,527,836
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$818,156,548
$133,183,272
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$840,706,988
$138,008,853
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$863,878,974
$143,010,843
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$887,689,638
$148,195,735
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$912,156,584
$153,570,262
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$937,297,900
$159,141,408
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$963,132,173
$164,916,415
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$989,678,504
$170,902,792
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$1,016,956,518
$177,108,327
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$1,044,986,382
$183,541,096
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$1,073,788,819
$190,209,475
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$1,103,385,123
$197,122,150
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$1,133,797,176
$204,288,127
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$1,165,047,460
$211,716,748
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
December 2007
Net Revenue
$204,947,693
$210,483,836
$216,162,814
$221,988,027
$227,962,945
$234,091,103
$240,376,110
$246,821,643
$253,431,450
$259,335,357
$265,363,041
$271,516,510
$277,797,775
$284,208,851
$290,751,753
$297,428,495
$304,241,091
$311,191,545
$318,281,857
$325,514,016
$332,890,000
$340,411,768
$348,081,264
$355,900,410
$363,871,102
$371,995,208
$380,274,567
$388,710,977
$397,306,201
$406,061,955
$414,979,906
$424,061,670
$433,308,801
$442,722,790
$452,305,060
$462,056,957
$471,979,744
$482,074,597
$492,342,596
$502,784,718
$513,401,832
$524,194,685
$535,163,901
$546,309,967
$557,633,223
$569,133,859
$580,811,897
$592,667,185
$604,699,383
Page B-51
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B24 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept – High Demand Scenario
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
$1.00 auto toll alternative - with MLK Toll - HIGH DEMAND SCENARIO
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$47,231,114
$4,024,442
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$65,729,738
$5,632,398
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$68,605,175
$5,912,172
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$71,606,402
$6,205,912
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$74,738,921
$6,514,317
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$78,008,477
$6,838,123
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$81,421,065
$7,178,103
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$84,982,940
$7,535,068
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$88,700,635
$7,909,870
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$92,580,965
$8,303,404
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$96,631,046
$8,716,611
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$100,858,303
$9,150,478
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$105,270,487
$9,606,044
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$109,875,688
$10,084,396
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$114,682,350
$10,586,681
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$118,724,902
$11,041,305
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$122,909,955
$11,515,648
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$127,242,531
$12,010,572
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$131,727,830
$12,526,978
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$136,371,236
$13,065,806
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$141,178,322
$13,628,039
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$146,154,858
$14,214,701
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$151,306,817
$14,826,862
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$156,640,382
$15,465,639
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$162,161,956
$16,132,201
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$167,878,165
$16,827,764
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$173,795,870
$17,553,600
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$179,922,174
$18,311,038
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$186,264,431
$19,101,465
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$192,830,252
$19,926,329
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$199,627,519
$20,787,141
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$206,664,389
$21,685,481
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$213,949,308
$22,622,996
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$221,491,022
$23,601,410
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$228,163,439
$24,500,625
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$235,036,862
$25,434,490
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$242,117,348
$26,404,354
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$249,411,133
$27,411,617
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$256,924,643
$28,457,734
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$264,664,498
$29,544,217
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$272,637,516
$30,672,639
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$280,850,721
$31,844,632
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$289,311,349
$33,061,894
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$298,026,854
$34,326,189
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$307,004,913
$35,639,350
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$316,253,436
$37,003,282
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$325,780,570
$38,419,965
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$335,594,710
$39,891,457
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$345,704,501
$41,419,897
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$356,118,849
$43,007,506
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
December 2007
Net Revenue
$31,233,420
$47,705,024
$49,866,955
$52,125,531
$54,485,022
$56,949,886
$59,524,777
$62,214,552
$65,024,278
$67,959,247
$71,024,980
$74,227,239
$77,572,037
$81,065,651
$84,714,630
$87,624,223
$90,632,855
$93,743,856
$96,960,666
$100,286,837
$103,726,040
$107,282,065
$110,958,830
$114,760,378
$118,690,887
$122,754,673
$126,956,191
$131,300,044
$135,790,986
$140,433,924
$145,233,929
$150,196,233
$155,326,244
$160,629,541
$165,098,641
$169,688,453
$174,402,087
$179,242,728
$184,213,633
$189,318,140
$194,559,662
$199,941,691
$205,467,803
$211,141,655
$216,966,988
$222,947,629
$229,087,492
$235,390,580
$241,860,988
$248,502,901
Page B-52
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B24 Toll on MLK with constant toll rate concept – High Demand Scenario (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
$1.00 auto toll alternative - with MLK Toll - HIGH DEMAND SCENARIO
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$366,846,929
$44,656,594
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$377,898,193
$46,369,563
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$389,282,376
$48,148,907
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$401,009,507
$49,997,219
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$413,089,919
$51,917,194
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$425,534,253
$53,911,633
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$438,353,472
$55,983,447
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$451,558,870
$58,135,663
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$465,162,081
$60,371,423
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$477,983,111
$62,538,042
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$491,157,521
$64,783,272
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$504,695,050
$67,109,988
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$518,605,707
$69,521,175
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$532,899,777
$72,019,923
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$547,587,827
$74,609,441
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$562,680,716
$77,293,053
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$578,189,604
$80,074,206
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$594,125,955
$82,956,476
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$610,501,551
$85,943,568
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$627,328,500
$89,039,326
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$644,619,242
$92,247,734
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$662,386,560
$95,572,925
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$680,643,590
$99,019,183
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$699,403,828
$102,590,950
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$718,681,146
$106,292,834
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$738,489,796
$110,129,611
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$758,844,421
$114,106,234
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$779,760,070
$118,227,839
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$801,252,207
$122,499,752
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$823,336,721
$126,927,495
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$846,029,939
$131,516,795
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$869,348,639
$136,273,591
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$893,310,061
$141,204,040
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$917,931,920
$146,314,527
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$943,232,418
$151,611,674
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$969,230,262
$157,102,348
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$995,944,671
$162,793,669
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$1,023,395,396
$168,693,020
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$1,051,602,732
$174,808,059
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$1,080,587,532
$181,146,726
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$1,110,371,226
$187,717,255
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$1,140,975,833
$194,528,185
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$1,172,423,979
$201,588,371
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$1,204,738,915
$208,906,996
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$1,237,944,531
$216,493,583
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$1,272,065,377
$224,358,007
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$1,307,126,679
$232,510,509
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$1,343,154,358
$240,961,711
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$1,380,175,050
$249,722,627
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
December 2007
Net Revenue
$255,320,597
$262,318,451
$269,500,934
$276,872,615
$284,438,162
$292,202,347
$300,170,043
$308,346,227
$316,735,983
$324,308,480
$332,047,879
$339,957,269
$348,039,767
$356,298,522
$364,736,707
$373,357,526
$382,164,205
$391,159,995
$400,348,168
$409,732,015
$419,314,848
$429,099,992
$439,090,786
$449,290,581
$459,702,735
$470,330,612
$481,177,579
$492,247,002
$503,542,243
$515,066,656
$526,823,584
$538,816,354
$551,048,273
$563,522,623
$576,242,658
$589,211,594
$602,432,611
$615,908,841
$629,643,364
$643,639,202
$657,899,310
$672,426,574
$687,223,797
$702,293,695
$717,638,887
$733,261,887
$749,165,094
$765,350,784
$781,821,095
Page B-53
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B25 Hampton Roads Third Crossing Demand Scenario
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
$1.00 auto toll alternative - with MLK Toll - with Third Harbor Crossing Project
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$44,241,850
$3,776,669
$6,004,394
$5,968,858
$61,473,819
$5,276,944
$6,214,548
$6,177,768
$64,068,665
$5,530,269
$6,432,057
$6,393,990
$66,778,867
$5,796,146
$6,657,179
$6,617,780
$69,609,879
$6,075,220
$6,890,180
$6,849,402
$72,567,433
$6,368,170
$7,131,337
$7,089,131
$75,657,551
$6,675,712
$7,380,934
$7,337,251
$78,886,559
$6,998,599
$7,639,266
$7,594,054
$82,261,106
$7,337,626
$7,906,641
$7,859,846
$94,060,292
$8,473,686
$8,183,373
$8,134,941
$97,747,466
$8,858,376
$8,469,791
$8,419,664
$101,579,178
$9,260,635
$8,766,234
$8,714,352
$105,561,093
$9,681,271
$9,073,052
$9,019,354
$109,699,100
$10,121,126
$9,390,609
$9,335,032
$113,999,317
$10,581,084
$9,719,280
$9,661,758
$118,017,792
$11,035,606
$10,059,455
$9,999,919
$122,177,920
$11,509,847
$10,411,536
$10,349,916
$126,484,691
$12,004,670
$10,775,939
$10,712,164
$130,943,277
$12,520,977
$11,153,097
$11,087,089
$135,559,027
$13,059,708
$11,543,456
$11,475,137
$140,337,483
$13,621,845
$11,947,477
$11,876,767
$145,284,379
$14,208,412
$12,365,638
$12,292,454
$150,405,653
$14,820,482
$12,798,436
$12,722,690
$155,707,453
$15,459,170
$13,246,381
$13,167,984
$161,196,140
$16,125,646
$13,710,004
$13,628,864
$166,878,304
$16,821,126
$14,189,854
$14,105,874
$172,760,765
$17,546,883
$14,686,499
$14,599,579
$178,850,582
$18,304,247
$15,200,527
$15,110,565
$185,155,065
$19,094,604
$15,732,545
$15,639,434
$191,681,781
$19,919,403
$16,283,184
$16,186,815
$198,438,563
$20,780,156
$16,853,096
$16,753,353
$205,433,523
$21,678,443
$17,442,954
$17,339,720
$212,675,054
$22,615,913
$18,053,458
$17,946,611
$220,171,850
$23,594,289
$18,685,329
$18,574,742
$226,804,527
$24,493,509
$19,339,315
$19,224,858
$233,637,013
$25,427,389
$20,016,191
$19,897,728
$240,675,328
$26,397,278
$20,716,758
$20,594,149
$247,925,673
$27,404,575
$21,441,844
$21,314,944
$255,394,434
$28,450,737
$22,192,309
$22,060,967
$263,088,191
$29,537,278
$22,969,040
$22,833,101
$271,013,723
$30,665,769
$23,772,956
$23,632,259
$279,178,011
$31,837,846
$24,605,010
$24,459,388
$287,588,249
$33,055,205
$25,466,185
$25,315,467
$296,251,845
$34,319,612
$26,357,501
$26,201,508
$305,176,432
$35,632,901
$27,280,014
$27,118,561
$314,369,872
$36,996,978
$28,234,814
$28,067,711
$323,840,264
$38,413,825
$29,223,033
$29,050,080
$333,595,952
$39,885,499
$30,245,839
$30,066,833
$343,645,530
$41,414,141
$31,304,443
$31,119,172
$353,997,851
$43,001,974
$32,400,099
$32,208,343
December 2007
Net Revenue
$28,491,929
$43,804,559
$45,712,349
$47,707,762
$49,795,077
$51,978,796
$54,263,655
$56,654,639
$59,156,993
$69,268,292
$71,999,635
$74,837,957
$77,787,416
$80,852,333
$84,037,195
$86,922,813
$89,906,621
$92,991,918
$96,182,113
$99,480,726
$102,891,394
$106,417,874
$110,064,046
$113,833,917
$117,731,627
$121,761,450
$125,927,802
$130,235,243
$134,688,481
$139,292,379
$144,051,958
$148,972,405
$154,059,073
$159,317,491
$163,746,845
$168,295,705
$172,967,144
$177,764,310
$182,690,420
$187,748,772
$192,942,738
$198,275,768
$203,751,392
$209,373,223
$215,144,956
$221,070,368
$227,153,326
$233,397,780
$239,807,773
$246,387,435
Page B-54
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
Table B25 Hampton Roads Third Crossing Demand Scenario (part 2)
Year
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
2115
December 2007
$1.00 auto toll alternative - with MLK Toll - with Third Harbor Crossing Project
Current Dollars
Gross Revenue
Transaction Cost
Operations
Maintenance
$364,662,037
$44,651,309
$33,534,102
$33,335,635
$375,647,481
$46,364,549
$34,707,796
$34,502,383
$386,963,861
$48,144,189
$35,922,569
$35,709,966
$398,621,147
$49,992,824
$37,179,859
$36,959,815
$410,629,609
$51,913,151
$38,481,154
$38,253,408
$422,999,826
$53,907,971
$39,827,994
$39,592,278
$435,742,696
$55,980,199
$41,221,974
$40,978,007
$448,869,445
$58,132,861
$42,664,743
$42,412,238
$462,391,637
$60,369,103
$44,158,009
$43,896,666
$475,136,306
$62,536,246
$45,703,539
$45,433,049
$488,232,251
$64,782,036
$47,303,163
$47,023,206
$501,689,152
$67,109,351
$48,958,774
$48,669,018
$515,516,959
$69,521,177
$50,672,331
$50,372,434
$529,725,896
$72,020,607
$52,445,863
$52,135,469
$544,326,466
$74,610,850
$54,281,468
$53,960,211
$559,329,464
$77,295,234
$56,181,319
$55,848,818
$574,745,982
$80,077,209
$58,147,666
$57,803,527
$590,587,418
$82,960,351
$60,182,834
$59,826,650
$606,865,484
$85,948,369
$62,289,233
$61,920,583
$623,592,214
$89,045,109
$64,469,356
$64,087,803
$640,779,974
$92,254,559
$66,725,784
$66,330,876
$658,441,472
$95,580,853
$69,061,186
$68,652,457
$676,589,765
$99,028,279
$71,478,328
$71,055,293
$695,238,271
$102,601,282
$73,980,069
$73,542,228
$714,400,776
$106,304,473
$76,569,371
$76,116,206
$734,091,447
$110,142,632
$79,249,299
$78,780,273
$754,324,843
$114,120,714
$82,023,025
$81,537,583
$775,115,921
$118,243,860
$84,893,831
$84,391,398
$796,480,054
$122,517,399
$87,865,115
$87,345,097
$818,433,035
$126,946,858
$90,940,394
$90,402,176
$840,991,096
$131,537,968
$94,123,308
$93,566,252
$864,170,913
$136,296,671
$97,417,623
$96,841,071
$887,989,624
$141,229,129
$100,827,240
$100,230,508
$912,464,838
$146,341,733
$104,356,194
$103,738,576
$937,614,650
$151,641,108
$108,008,660
$107,369,426
$963,457,653
$157,134,128
$111,788,964
$111,127,356
$990,012,955
$162,827,916
$115,701,577
$115,016,813
$1,017,300,187
$168,729,863
$119,751,133
$119,042,402
$1,045,339,523
$174,847,631
$123,942,422
$123,208,886
$1,074,151,694
$181,189,167
$128,280,407
$127,521,197
$1,103,758,000
$187,762,711
$132,770,221
$131,984,439
$1,134,180,330
$194,576,808
$137,417,179
$136,603,894
$1,165,441,175
$201,640,320
$142,226,780
$141,385,030
$1,197,563,648
$208,962,437
$147,204,717
$146,333,507
$1,230,571,496
$216,552,690
$152,356,883
$151,455,179
$1,264,489,123
$224,420,962
$157,689,373
$156,756,111
$1,299,341,604
$232,577,502
$163,208,502
$162,242,574
$1,335,154,707
$241,032,939
$168,920,799
$167,921,064
$1,371,954,909
$249,798,296
$174,833,027
$173,798,302
$1,409,769,416
$258,885,005
$180,952,183
$179,881,242
Net Revenue
$253,140,989
$260,072,753
$267,187,137
$274,488,649
$281,981,896
$289,671,583
$297,562,516
$305,659,603
$313,967,858
$321,463,471
$329,123,845
$336,952,008
$344,951,018
$353,123,957
$361,473,937
$370,004,092
$378,717,581
$387,617,584
$396,707,300
$405,989,946
$415,468,756
$425,146,977
$435,027,866
$445,114,691
$455,410,725
$465,919,243
$476,643,521
$487,586,832
$498,752,442
$510,143,607
$521,763,568
$533,615,548
$545,702,746
$558,028,335
$570,595,455
$583,407,206
$596,466,648
$609,776,790
$623,340,584
$637,160,923
$651,240,630
$665,582,449
$680,189,045
$695,062,986
$710,206,744
$725,622,677
$741,313,026
$757,279,905
$773,525,284
$790,050,986
Page B-55
IBI GROUP
Virginia Department of Transportation
MIDTOWN TUNNEL CORRIDOR PROJECT TOLL FEASIBILITY STUDY:
FINAL REPORT
This Page Intentionally Left Blank.
December 2007
Page B-56
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
APPENDIX C
PUBLIC RESEARCH ADVISORY GROUP FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY
ANALYSIS
Page C - 1
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Toll Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Public Resources Advisory Group (PRAG) has developed two financial models to analyze the feasibility of
using toll revenues to fund the Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects, including the Midtown Tunnel, the
Downtown Tunnel and the Martin Luther King Freeway (MLK). The first model assumes traditional public
finance toll revenue bonds issued by a governmental entity or a not-for-profit 63-20 corporation. The
second model assumes a public-private partnership (PPP) framework with a long-term concession
agreement.
PRAG was provided with estimates of the construction costs by the Virginia Department of Transportation
and IBI Group and with estimates of annual renewal and replacement costs by IBI Group. Note that the
projected estimate range for the project may change in the future. Charles River Associates (CRA)
International prepared toll revenue forecasts, assuming different toll scenarios and alternatives, and also
prepared a forecast of operations and maintenance expenses and transaction costs.
Project Costs
At the direction of VDOT, IBI Group prepared a schedule of construction costs based on a five-year
construction period. Baseline estimates were prepared along with high estimates (175 percent of
baseline estimates) and low estimates (75 percent of baseline estimates). All costs were expressed in
2007 dollars. A summary of the baseline, high and low estimates are provided in the table below. Based
on the estimates in 2007 dollars, PRAG estimated the costs in year of expenditure dollars, using a 3.50
percent annual escalation factor.
Project Capital Costs by Year of Expenditure (2007$)
Years Before Opening
5
4
3
2
1
Total
Low Estimate Baseline Estimate
13,100,000
17,500,000
83,800,000
111,800,000
230,300,000
307,100,000
142,900,000
190,600,000
34,800,000
46,500,000
504,900,000
673,500,000
Numbers may not add due to rounding.
High Estimate
30,600,000
195,600,000
537,400,000
333,500,000
81,300,000
1,178,400,000
Fraction of Total
2.6%
16.6%
45.6%
28.3%
6.9%
100.0%
High Estimate
35,114,000
232,311,000
660,601,000
424,305,000
107,056,000
1,459,387,000
Fraction of Total
2.4%
15.9%
45.3%
29.1%
7.3%
100.0%
Project Capital Costs by Year of Expenditure (Year of Expenditure $)
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total
Low Estimate Baseline Estimate
15,032,000
20,081,000
99,528,000
132,783,000
283,097,000
377,504,000
181,808,000
242,496,000
45,824,000
61,231,000
625,289,000
834,095,000
Escalation Factor
3.50%
Renewal and Replacement Costs
IBI Group also prepared a schedule of annual renewal and replacement costs, which start fourteen years
after the opening and were provided in 2007 dollars. High (140 percent of the baseline estimate) and low
estimates (85 percent of the baseline estimate) of the renewal and replacement costs were also provided.
PRAG prepared a schedule of the renewal and replacement costs in year of expenditure dollars based on
a 3.50 percent escalation factor.
Page C - 2
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Renewal and Replacement Costs (2007$)
Years
After
Opening
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Baseline
Estimtate
100%
1,600,000
12,300,000
3,300,000
0
0
0
10,400,000
67,100,000
21,500,000
0
1,300,000
8,100,000
2,600,000
0
0
4,700,000
34,700,000
9,800,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,600,000
15,700,000
25,600,000
7,200,000
0
3,800,000
24,400,000
7,800,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,200,000
59,500,000
19,000,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10,400,000
67,100,000
21,500,000
0
2,800,000
20,400,000
5,900,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,700,000
34,700,000
9,800,000
0
0
0
3,500,000
22,400,000
7,200,000
0
3,800,000
24,400,000
589,800,000
Low
Estimtate
85%
1,300,000
10,400,000
2,800,000
0
0
0
8,800,000
57,100,000
18,300,000
0
1,100,000
6,900,000
2,200,000
0
0
4,000,000
29,500,000
8,300,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,300,000
13,400,000
21,800,000
6,100,000
0
3,200,000
20,700,000
6,600,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,800,000
50,600,000
16,200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8,800,000
57,100,000
18,300,000
0
2,400,000
17,300,000
5,000,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,000,000
29,500,000
8,300,000
0
0
0
2,900,000
19,000,000
6,100,000
0
3,200,000
20,700,000
501,000,000
High
Estimtate
140%
2,200,000
17,200,000
4,600,000
0
0
0
14,600,000
94,000,000
30,100,000
0
1,800,000
11,400,000
3,600,000
0
0
6,600,000
48,600,000
13,700,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,200,000
22,000,000
35,900,000
10,000,000
0
5,300,000
34,200,000
10,900,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12,900,000
83,300,000
26,700,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14,600,000
94,000,000
30,100,000
0
4,000,000
28,600,000
8,200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,600,000
48,600,000
13,700,000
0
0
0
4,900,000
31,300,000
10,000,000
0
5,300,000
34,200,000
825,900,000
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112
2113
2114
2115
Renewal and Replacement Costs (Year of Expenditure$)
Escalation Factor
3.50%
Years
Baseline
Low
High
After
Estimtate
Estimtate
Estimtate
Opening
100%
85%
140%
14
2,590,000
2,104,000
3,561,000
15
20,607,000
17,424,000
28,816,000
16
5,722,000
4,855,000
7,976,000
17
0
0
0
18
0
0
0
19
0
0
0
20
20,694,000
17,510,000
29,051,000
21
138,188,000
117,594,000
193,587,000
22
45,827,000
39,007,000
64,158,000
23
0
0
0
24
2,968,000
2,512,000
4,110,000
25
19,142,000
16,306,000
26,941,000
26
6,359,000
5,381,000
8,805,000
27
0
0
0
28
0
0
0
29
12,746,000
10,848,000
17,898,000
30
97,396,000
82,800,000
136,410,000
31
28,469,000
24,112,000
39,799,000
32
0
0
0
33
0
0
0
34
0
0
0
35
0
0
0
36
0
0
0
37
0
0
0
38
0
0
0
39
0
0
0
40
0
0
0
41
0
0
0
42
0
0
0
43
0
0
0
44
7,269,000
5,906,000
9,995,000
45
73,827,000
63,012,000
103,452,000
46
124,594,000
106,099,000
174,723,000
47
36,268,000
30,727,000
50,373,000
48
0
0
0
49
20,505,000
17,267,000
28,599,000
50
136,272,000
115,608,000
191,004,000
51
45,087,000
38,151,000
63,006,000
52
0
0
0
53
0
0
0
54
0
0
0
55
0
0
0
56
0
0
0
57
0
0
0
58
0
0
0
59
70,027,000
59,371,000
98,191,000
60
468,746,000
398,631,000
656,245,000
61
154,923,000
132,092,000
217,707,000
62
0
0
0
63
0
0
0
64
0
0
0
65
0
0
0
66
0
0
0
67
0
0
0
68
0
0
0
69
0
0
0
70
115,573,000
97,793,000
162,247,000
71
771,769,000
656,751,000
1,081,167,000
72
255,943,000
217,849,000
358,321,000
73
0
0
0
74
35,706,000
30,605,000
51,009,000
75
269,250,000
228,335,000
377,479,000
76
80,597,000
68,302,000
112,016,000
77
0
0
0
78
0
0
0
79
0
0
0
80
0
0
0
81
0
0
0
82
0
0
0
83
0
0
0
84
0
0
0
85
0
0
0
86
0
0
0
87
0
0
0
88
0
0
0
89
100,413,000
85,458,000
141,005,000
90
767,293,000
652,309,000
1,074,652,000
91
224,284,000
189,955,000
313,540,000
92
0
0
0
93
0
0
0
94
0
0
0
95
91,918,000
76,161,000
128,685,000
96
608,866,000
516,449,000
850,781,000
97
202,557,000
171,610,000
281,329,000
98
0
0
0
99
114,519,000
96,437,000
159,724,000
100
761,070,000
645,662,000
1,066,746,000
5,937,984,000
5,040,993,000
8,313,108,000
Page C - 3
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Traffic, Revenue and Net Revenue Forecasts
CRA International prepared traffic and revenue forecasts for four main tolling scenarios, as well as three
demand risk scenarios. For each of the four main tolling scenarios five toll alternatives were evaluated
and for each of the demand risk scenarios, the base case toll alternative was evaluated. The toll
scenarios and the toll alternatives are summarized below. As directed by VDOT, Case 2c with $1.00 toll
on automobiles on the Midtown and Downtown Tunnels at all times of the day and $0.50 toll on the MLK
Freeway at all on times of the day is the base case. CRA International also prepared estimates of
transaction costs and operating and maintenance expenses for each toll alternative and thus, provided
the basis for net revenue forecast to determine financial feasibility.
In all toll alternatives, medium trucks have a toll rate 1.75 times the auto toll & heavy trucks have a toll
rate 2.75 times the auto toll rate.
For each of the 25 cases summarized in the following table, PRAG analyzed the feasibility of using toll
revenues to finance the project under both a traditional public finance tax-exempt toll revenue bond
structure and under a PPP framework. In addition for the base case (Case 2c), PRAG further analyzed
the feasibility, assuming the high estimates for project costs and renewal and replacement costs and the
low estimates for these costs.
Page C - 4
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case
1a
1b
1c
1d
1e
2a
2b
2c
Base
Case
2d
2e
3a
Toll Scenario
No Toll on MLK
Constant Tolls
Freeway
Toll Alternative
with Toll 1
Toll 2
Toll 3
Toll 4
Toll 5
Toll on MLK Freeway with Constant Toll 1
Tolls
Toll 2
Toll 3
3b
Toll 4
Toll 5
No Toll on MLK Freeway with Time of Toll 1
Day Tolls
Toll 2
3c
Toll 3
3d
Toll 4
3e
Toll 5
4a
Toll on MLK Freeway with Time of Day Toll 1
Tolls
4b
Toll 2
4c
Toll 3
4d
Toll 4
4e
Toll 5
5a
5b
5c
5d
5e
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK High (125% of
Freeway
Demand Growth)
Low (75% of
Demand Growth)
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK High (125% of
Freeway
Demand Growth)
Low (75% of
Demand Growth)
Hampton Roads Third Crossing with Hampton Roads
Tolls on MLK Freeway
Third Crossing
Toll Rates
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$0.50, $0.15 on MLK
$0.75, $0.25 on MLK
$1.00, $0.50 on MLK
$1.50, $0.75 on MLK
$2.00, $1.00 on MLK
$0.75 (AM, PM),
(MD), $0.25 (NT)
$1.25 (AM, PM),
(MD), $0.50 (NT)
$1.50 (AM, PM),
(MD), $0.50 (NT)
$2.50 (AM, PM),
(MD), $0.75 (NT)
$0.50
$0.75
$1.25
$1.75
$3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
$0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50
(MD),
$0.25
(NT);
MLK: $0.25 (AM, PM),
$0.15 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
$1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75
(MD),
$0.50
(NT)
;
MLK: $0.50 (AM, PM),
$0.25 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
$1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25
(MD),
$0.50
(NT)
;
MLK: $0.75 (AM, PM),
$0.50 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
$2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75
(MD),
$0.75
(NT)
;
MLK: $1.00 (AM, PM),
$0.75 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
$3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT) ;
MLK: $1.25 (AM, PM), $1.00 (MD),
$0.50 (NT)
$1.00
$1.00
$1.00, $0.50 on MLK
$1.00, $0.50 on MLK
$1.00, $0.50 on MLK
Financing Assumptions
Page C - 5
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
As directed by VDOT, PRAG analyzed the feasibility of using only toll revenue bonds secured solely by
toll revenues generated from the project to finance the project. PRAG did not assume any other revenues
would be available to pay debt service. Under the traditional public finance tax-exempt toll revenue bonds
structure, PRAG assumed a senior/subordinate lien structure with both current interest bonds and capital
appreciation bonds with principal amortization starting the year after project completion. Under the PPP
framework, PRAG assumed the private entity could access the taxable debt capital markets with a
senior/subordinate lien structure, requiring minimum investment grade ratings for the senior bonds and
using both current interest bonds and zero coupon bonds. There are other alternative financing
mechanisms that could be available to the private entity, including long-term bank debt, Private Activity
Bonds (PABs) and Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA) loans. For the base
case, PRAG analyzed these options along with the taxable debt structure. While the use of TIFIA loans
and PABs may enhance the financial feasibility because of more flexible repayment options and/or more
favorable interest rates, TIFIA would have to be awarded and PABs allocated to the project. For
comparison purposes, PRAG assumed the more readily accessible taxable debt would be used for the
different toll scenarios.
The following structural and credit assumptions were made for all the cases PRAG analyzed to achieve
investment grade ratings on the senior lien bonds:
Security pledge:
Net revenue pledge (gross toll revenues less operating and maintenance
expenses)
Construction fund:
Net funded, interest earnings are used in plan of finance
Coverage Ratios:
Minimum debt service coverage ratio of 1.75 times for senior bonds and
1.25 times for subordinate bonds. Coverage of all obligations (including
maintenance reserve set-asides and renewal and replacement reserve setasides) of at least 1.00 times, including prior year balances.
Term of Debt:
40 Years
Capitalized Interest:
Through construction period and 12 months after completion, if needed
Interest Earnings Rate:
Construction Fund, Debt Service Reserve Fund, Maintenance Reserve,
Renewal and Replacement Reserve: 5.00%
Capitalized Interest Fund: 4.75%
Debt Service Reserve:
Fully funded from bond proceeds at minimum of average annual debt
service, 10 percent of bonds proceeds and maximum annual debt service
Maintenance Reserve:
Funded from net revenues after debt service at 3 months of annual
maintenance expenses
Renewal & Replacement:
Begin funding forecasted renewal and replacement costs from net revenues
after debt service at 20 percent each year five years prior to funding
requirement. In the first ten years of toll facility operations, retain additional
revenues to maintain a minimum balance to fund future renewal and
replacement costs.
Withdrawal of Net
Revenues:
Surplus revenues are withdrawn after all debt service is paid and
required reserve deposits are made.
Page C - 6
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Base Case – Public Finance Tax-Exempt Toll Revenue Bonds
The base case assumes the baseline estimate of construction costs and renewal and
replacement costs and assumes a $1.00 constant toll for cars on the Midtown Tunnel and Downtown
Tunnel and a $0.50 constant toll on the MLK Freeway. The bonds are structured to achieve minimum
investment grade ratings on the senior lien bonds and assume non-investment grade ratings for the
subordinate lien. To maximize bonding capacity, PRAG have also assumed that both current interest
bonds and capital appreciation bonds would be issued as senior and subordinate lien bonds. PRAG
applied the following interest rate assumptions for 40-year tax-exempt toll revenue bonds:
•
•
•
•
Senior Current Interest Bonds: 5.50 percent
Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds: 6.00 percent
Subordinate Current Interest Bonds: 6.00 percent
Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds: 6.50 percent
The following table summarizes the sources and uses of funds and the financing results.
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
412,830,000
171,629,986
134,730,000
52,288,793
141,593,221
913,071,999
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
72,267,661
8,714,788
153,947,250
0
1,069,024,699
(155,952,700)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
53,678,973
128,902,400
1,878,764,050
1.75
1.41
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
45.2%
18.8%
14.8%
5.7%
15.5%
100.0%
78.0%
6.8%
0.8%
14.4%
0.0%
100.0%
72,267,661
173,523,100
2,529,368,150
1.30
1.04
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
50.2%
49.8%
2015
5.890%
40.00
29.95
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Total
1,952,219,896
7,310,725,166
17,644,406,136
PV @ 8.00%
122,787,216
169,290,727
182,067,543
Page C - 7
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Based on the assumptions made, the forecasted toll revenues in this base case are not sufficient to
finance the project. There is a funding shortfall of almost $156 million. Debt service coverage on the
senior lien bonds is maintained at 1.75 times and 1.30 times with the subordinate lien bonds after the first
year of operations. In the first year of operations, debt service coverage is 1.41 times on the senior lien
bonds and 1.04 times on the subordinate lien bonds. Senior current interest bonds (CIBs) and capital
appreciation bonds (CABs) comprise 64 percent of the financing and subordinate CIBs and CABs
comprise 20 percent.
Overall, the ratio of CIB debt service and CAB debt service is about 1.00. The chart below shows
forecasted gross revenues along with senior and subordinate debt service. As can be seen, debt service
is ascending to match increasing toll revenues.
Gross Revenues, Debt Service and Surplus Revenues
300,000
250,000
$ Thousands
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Gross Revenues
Net Senior Debt Service
Net Subordinate Debt Service
2060
2058
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
0
Surplus Net Revenues
The chart above also shows the surplus revenues that can be withdrawn after all debt service is paid and
after deposits are made to the maintenance reserve fund and the renewal and replacement reserve fund.
As provided by IBI Group, renewal and replacement costs start 14 years after the toll facility opens and
these costs can be substantial. PRAG has structured the renewal and replacement reserve fund to start
funding the anticipated costs 5 years prior to actual expenditure with 20 percent of the cost deposited
each year.
Over 50 years, over $1.9 billion of surplus revenues can be withdrawn and on a present value basis using
8.00 percent as a discount factor, the surplus revenues are almost $122.8 million. Over 75 years, $7.3
billion of surplus revenues, or $169.3 million on a present value basis, can be withdrawn. Over 99 years,
$17.6 billion, or $182.1 million on a present value basis, can be withdrawn.
Base Case - Public Private Partnership Financial Analysis – Taxable Debt
PRAG analyzed the financial feasibility of a PPP framework using the basic financing assumptions
described above and based on the same toll revenue forecast, operating and maintenance expenses and
renewal and replacement costs. PRAG targeted a 12.00 percent pre-tax rate of return for equity over a
50-year period.
Based on previous analyses, an equity pre-tax rate of return between 12 percent and 13 percent, appears
to be the usual range. The equity contribution was determined as the amount contributed at the start of
construction that would result in a pre-tax internal rate of return of 12 percent based on distributions of
excess revenues after the payment of debt service and deposits to the maintenance reserve and renewal
and replacement fund. PRAG assumed more conservatively that taxable bonds would be used to finance
the project although a more aggressive financing structure assuming variable rate bank debt with a fixed
rate swap could be an option.
Page C - 8
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
PRAG used the following interest rate assumptions:
•
•
•
•
Senior Current Interest Bonds: 6.25 percent
Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds: 6.75 percent
Subordinate Current Interest Bonds: 6.75 percent
Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds: 7.25 percent
The following table summarizes the sources and uses of funds and the financing results.
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
377,895,000
141,689,717
143,005,000
49,997,586
148,037,876
45,100,000
905,725,179
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
71,258,730
8,125,873
176,009,213
0
1,089,488,816
(183,763,636)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
54,544,081
1,878,117,188
128,291,875
1.75
1.21
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.7%
15.6%
15.8%
5.5%
16.3%
5.0%
100.0%
76.6%
6.5%
0.7%
16.2%
0.0%
100.0%
76,362,556
2,619,945,338
179,611,663
1.25
1.21
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
49.6%
50.4%
2016
6.655%
40.00
30.15
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Total
1,861,072,206
7,219,577,476
17,553,258,445
PV @ 8.00%
107,797,005
154,300,516
167,077,332
12.00%
12.56%
12.60%
Based on the assumptions made, the forecasted toll revenues in this base case are not sufficient to
finance the project with a PPP framework. There is a funding shortfall of almost $183.8 million. In order
Page C - 9
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
to yield a pre-tax rate of return of 12 percent over a 50-year period, equity is maximized at $45.1 million.
Since interest rates are higher on the taxable bonds, there is less debt capacity and a larger funding
shortfall results when compared to a tax-exempt toll revenue bond financing. Under a PPP structure, if
the equity investor assumes a more aggressive toll regime, then the financial feasibility of the project
would improve relative to a public financing. However, under these assumptions using the same toll
structure, the lower cost of funds of the tax-exempt revenue bonds enhances the financial feasibility of the
public financing structure.
If equity was to contribute the additional $183.8 million, the pre-tax rate of return would fall to 5.5 percent.
Debt service coverage on the senior lien bonds is maintained at 1.75 times and 1.25 times with the
subordinate lien bonds after the first year of operations. In the first year of operations overall debt service
coverage is 1.21 times. Senior current interest bonds (CIBs) and capital appreciation bonds (CABs)
comprise almost 57.3 percent of the financing, subordinate CIBs and CABs comprise 21.3 percent and
the equity contribution makes up 5.0 percent of the financing.
The chart below shows forecasted gross revenues along with senior and subordinate debt service. As
can be seen, debt service is ascending to match increasing toll revenues.
Gross Revenues, Debt Service and Surplus Revenues
300,000
250,000
$ Thousands
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Gross Revenues
Net Senior Debt Service
Net Subordinate Debt Service
2060
2058
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
0
Surplus Net Revenues
The chart also shows the surplus revenues that can be withdrawn after all debt service is paid and after
deposits are made to the maintenance reserve fund and the renewal and replacement reserve fund.
Once debt service is paid off in 40 years, significantly more revenues will flow through and be available
for distribution. Over 50 years, almost $1.9 billion of surplus revenues can be withdrawn and on a present
value basis using 8.00 percent as a discount factor the surplus revenues are over $107.8 million. Over 75
years, $7.2 billion of surplus revenues, or $154.3 million on a present value basis, can be withdrawn.
Over 99 years, $17.5 billion, or $167.1 million on a present value basis, can be withdrawn.
Base Case - Public Private Partnership Financial Analysis – PABs and TIFIA
Under the PPP framework, Private Activity Bonds and TIFIA could be available and provide a lower cost
of borrowing. However, this project would need to receive an allocation of PABs, which currently has a
$15 billion cap, and it would also need to be awarded a TIFIA loan by the US DOT. For comparison,
PRAG analyzed the financial feasibility assuming PABs and TIFIA would be available for the project. As
in the taxable structure, based on the same toll revenue forecast, operating and maintenance expenses
and renewal and replacement costs, PRAG targeted a 12 percent pre-tax rate of return for equity over a
50-year period. Also, it was assumed an equity contribution was contributed at the start of construction
that would result in a pre-tax internal rate of return of 12 percent based on distributions of excess
revenues after the payment of debt service and deposits to the maintenance reserve and renewal and
replacement fund. Since PABs would likely be subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT), PRAG
added 30 basis points as an AMT penalty to the tax-exempt rates for current interest bonds and 40 basis
Page C - 10
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
points for the CABs. TIFIA rates would be based on U.S. Treasury rates plus 5 basis points. For the
TIFIA loan, principal amortization is deferred for 5 years after construction is completed. Additionally,
TIFIA will accept lower debt service coverage requirements, assumed to be 1.20 times. The following
table summarizes the sources and uses of funds and the financing results.
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior PABs Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior PABs Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total TIFIA Current Interest Bonds
Total TIFIA Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
401,005,000
155,172,258
172,045,000
84,095,603
150,225,279
35,050,000
997,593,140
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
78,395,627
9,123,179
178,227,650
0
1,099,841,455
(102,248,316)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
53,965,341
132,574,950
1,888,786,940
1.75
1.23
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
40.2%
15.6%
17.2%
8.4%
15.1%
3.5%
100.0%
75.8%
7.1%
0.8%
16.2%
0.0%
100.0%
78,395,627
193,342,350
2,743,846,940
1.20
1.23
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
50.0%
50.0%
2015
6.088%
40.00
30.03
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Total
1,763,008,684
7,121,513,954
17,455,194,923
PV @ 8.00%
89,601,748
136,105,259
148,882,075
12.00%
12.65%
12.70%
Based on the assumptions made, the financial feasibility improves with PABs and a TIFIA loan because
of the lower borrowing cost, more flexible repayment options and lower debt service coverage
requirements. There is a funding shortfall of approximately $102.2 million with equity maximized at $35.1
million to yield a pre-tax rate of return of 12 percent over a 50-year period.
Page C - 11
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Base Case - Public Private Partnership Financial Analysis – Bank Debt
Under the PPP framework, the private entity could also access the bank debt market, whereby a bank or
a group of banks would provide financing usually at a variable rate and fully hedged with a fixed rate
swap. This structure typically includes grace periods for principal and interest such that during the
construction period and initial ramp-up there would be “negative amortization” with repayment of principal
once the project is complete and generating sufficient revenue. The term of this debt is typically shorter
than capital market debt. PRAG has assumed a 30-year term with fixed swap rates of 6.25 percent for
the first tranche of bank debt and 6.50 percent for the second tranche. The following table summarizes
the sources and uses of funds and the financing results.
Sources of Funds
Bank Debt- Tranche A
Bank Debt - Tranche B
Equity Contribution
Investment Earnings
476,516,000
69,951,400
47,506,532
119,598,127
66.8%
9.8%
6.7%
16.8%
Total Sources of Funds
713,572,060
100.0%
Uses of Funds
Construction Deposit
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses/Bid Development Fees
Contingency/(Shortfall)
Total Uses of Funds
834,095,000
54,646,740
9,530,320
(184,700,000)
713,572,060
Financing Results
Average Annual Debt Service
Maximum Annual Debt Service
Total Debt Service
Target Debt Service Coverage
65,850,583
142,107,840
1,975,517,501
1.30
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return - Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Total
2,291,081,019
7,635,747,515
18,136,313,110
PV @ 8.00%
131,128,216
180,375,294
193,671,669
12.00%
12.49%
12.53%
Based on these assumptions, and because of the shorter term, bonding capacity is only $546.5 million
and in order to yield a pre-tax rate of return of 12 percent over a 50-year period, equity is maximized at
$47.5 million. There is a funding shortfall of $184.7 million. Financial feasibility could improve under this
structure, if the debt was refinanced once toll revenues stabilize. However, since there is refinancing risk
involved, for this preliminary analysis, PRAG did not assume any refinancing.
Base Case – Low and High Estimates for Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Costs
IBI Group provided “low” and “high” values for the estimated construction costs and renewal and
replacement costs. For construction costs, low estimates were based on 75 percent of the baseline
estimate and high estimates were based on 175 percent. For renewal and replacement costs, the low
Page C - 12
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
estimates were based on 85 percent of the baseline estimate and high estimates were based on 140
percent of the baseline estimate.
Base Case with Low Estimates for Project Costs
PRAG analyzed the financial feasibility based on the combined effect of low estimates for the construction
costs and renewal and replacement costs. With the low estimates, total construction costs in year of
expenditure dollars is $625.3 million or approximately $208.8 million less than the baseline estimate.
Over 50 years, total renewal and replacement costs under the low estimate scenario are $679.1 million or
$120.4 million less than the baseline estimate.
Under the public finance tax-exempt toll revenue bonds structure, if the low estimates for project costs are
applied, the forecasted toll revenues are sufficient to finance the project. Since PRAG used the same
financing assumptions, a $26.3 million funding surplus is generated in the public finance tax-exempt
financing case. However, if construction costs were indeed estimated to be lower than the baseline
estimate, then fewer bonds would be issued rather than have additional bond proceeds, resulting in
higher debt service coverage or shorter term.
With the low estimates in a PPP taxable debt structure, the level of equity that yields a 12 percent pre-tax
rate of return increases to $49.2 million from $45.1 million with the baseline estimates. In addition, a
funding surplus of $2.6 million is generated. To the extent any significant surplus is generated, it could be
used as an upfront payment to VDOT under a concession agreement or potential revenue sharing would
be available. Equity distributions from cash flows over 50 years also increases by approximately $75.3
million when compared to the baseline estimate case to $1.9 billion over 50 years or $116.7 million on a
present value basis.
Base Case with High Estimates for Project Costs
PRAG also analyzed the financial feasibility based on the combined effect of high estimates for the
construction costs and renewal and replacement costs. With the high estimates, total construction costs
in year of expenditure dollars is $1.46 billion or approximately $625.3 million greater than the baseline
estimate. Total renewal and replacement costs under the high estimate scenario over a 50-year period
are over $1.1 billion or $319.8 million greater than the baseline estimate.
Based on the same assumptions made for the public finance tax-exempt toll revenue bonds, there is a
significantly larger funding shortfall and forecasted toll revenues are not sufficient to finance the project.
The shortfall is $701.8 million in the case with public finance tax-exempt toll revenue bonds.
With the high estimates in a PPP taxable debt structure, the equity contribution decreases to $17.9 million
from $45.1 million in the baseline estimates case. The funding shortfall is $756.9 million. Equity
distributions decrease by $111.7 million over a 50-year period, totaling $1.7 billion or $71.4 million on a
present value basis.
Exhibit A shows a comparison of all the cases PRAG analyzed and the appendix shows details for each
case on the sources and uses of funds and financing results.
Alternative Toll Scenarios and Toll Alternatives
CRA International prepared traffic and revenue forecasts for four main tolling scenarios and for each
tolling scenario, five toll alternatives were evaluated. PRAG analyzed each case to determine financial
feasibility using public finance tax-exempt toll revenue bonds and a PPP framework assuming access to
the taxable debt market. As discussed, for the base case under both structures the forecasted toll
revenues are not sufficient to finance the project. In the cases where lower tolls than the base case are
assumed, the funding shortfalls are even larger. Furthermore, in certain cases, such as the case where
there are no tolls on the MLK Freeway and the toll rate on cars is $0.50, net revenues after debt service
are not sufficient to support deposits to the renewal and replacement fund, and additional revenues need
to be retained to meet future renewal and replacement costs. In the cases with lower tolls, assuming a
PPP structure, surplus revenues after debt service payments are insufficient to attract any significant
amounts of equity, assuming a targeted pre-tax rate of return of 12 percent.
CRA International also forecasted revenues with more aggressive toll rates, such as $2.50 instead of the
$1.00 toll rate in the base case and time of day pricing. Under certain of these toll regimes, the
forecasted toll revenues were sufficient to finance the whole project. In the public finance model, a
funding surplus was generated from bond proceeds using the same assumptions as the base case. With
Page C - 13
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
higher forecasted revenues, the bonds could be structured with higher debt service coverage or a shorter
term to reduce the funding surplus. In the PPP structure, under these higher toll rate scenarios, equity
contribution is greater as surplus revenues available for distribution increase and obtaining the targeted
12 percent rate of return over 50 years is more achievable. In addition, funding surpluses are generated
from the financing, which can be made available to VDOT as part of a concession agreement. For
example, under the toll scenario where there is a constant $1.00 toll on the MLK Freeway and a constant
toll of $2.00 on the Midtown and Downtown Tunnels, the equity contribution is $85.1 million and the
funding surplus of almost $170.0 million could be available to VDOT as an upfront payment under a
concession.
Under the time of day toll structure, where tolls are greater during the morning and evening peak periods
and lower during mid-day and night times, CRA International projects higher revenues and therefore, the
financial feasibility improves when compared to the comparable constant toll structure. This suggests that
perhaps focusing on the time of day toll structures more vigorously could result in meeting two goals: (i)
reducing traffic congestion and improving the efficiency in use of the highway, as intended with this
Midtown Tunnel Corridor project, and (ii) improving the financial feasibility of the project.
Exhibit A-1 provides a comparison of the financial feasibility under each toll scenario and toll alternative
with a public finance model and Exhibit A-2 provides a comparison assuming a PPP framework. Detailed
schedules of sources and uses and financing results for each case for both financing models are provided
in the appendix. The analysis of the various toll scenarios and toll alternatives and the different estimates
on construction costs demonstrates that to improve the financial feasibility of the project, lower
construction costs and/or higher tolls is required.
Comparison of Toll Alternatives
Tolls on MLK Freeway and Constant Tolls
In comparing the toll alternatives under the scenario where there are tolls on the MLK Freeway
and the tolls are constant throughout the day, under the public finance structure, the feasibility analysis
shows a shortfall in funding of almost $550.2 million in the toll alternative with the lowest tolls and a
surplus of over $197.5 million in the toll alternative with the highest tolls. The chart below shows the
shortfall and surplus in funding under the different toll alternatives. As the chart depicts, the toll scenario
that would make the project financially feasible is between the $1.00 toll and the $1.50 toll. Based on the
assumptions made, an additional $18.4 million in revenues over the revenues generated by the $1.00 toll
in each year would result in a project that is financially feasible.
Comparison of Cases with Tolls on MLK and Constant Tolls
(Public Finance Tax-Exempt Toll Revenue Bonds)
300,000
(Shortfall)/Surplus - $Thousands
200,000
100,000
0
2a
2b
2c - Base Case
2d
2e
(100,000)
(200,000)
(300,000)
(400,000)
(500,000)
(600,000)
Case 2a: Toll 1$0.50, $0.15 on MLK Freeway; Case 2b: Toll 2 $0.75, $0.25 on MLK Freeway; Case 2c: Toll
3 $1.00, $0.50 on MLK Freeway (Base Case); Case 2d: Toll 4 $1.50, $0.75 on MLK Freeway; Case 2e: Toll
5 $2.00, $1.00 on MLK Freeway
Page C - 14
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
The chart below shows the shortfall and surplus in funding under the different toll alternatives assuming a
PPP structure with taxable debt. Under the lowest toll alternative, the project is not financially feasible
with a shortfall in funding of almost $553.7 million while under the highest toll alternative the project is
self-supporting with a surplus in funding of almost $170.0 million. As in the public finance tax-exempt
bonds case, the breakeven toll that would make project financially feasible is between the $1.00 toll and
the $1.50 toll. Based on the assumptions made, an additional $21.5 million of revenues over the
revenues generated by the $1.00 toll is required in each year for the project to be fully self-supporting.
Comparison of Cases with Tolls on MLK and Constant Tolls
(Public-Private Partnership)
300,000
(Shortfall)/Surplus - $Thousands
200,000
100,000
0
2a
2b
2c - Base Case
2d
2e
(100,000)
(200,000)
(300,000)
(400,000)
(500,000)
(600,000)
Case 2a: Toll 1$0.50, $0.15 on MLK; Case 2b: Toll 2 $0.75, $0.25 on MLK; Case 2c: Toll 3 $1.00, $0.50 on
MLK (Base Case); Case 2d: Toll 4 $1.50, $0.75 on MLK; Case 2e: Toll 5 $2.00, $1.00 on MLK
No Tolls on MLK Freeway and Constant Tolls
In the toll scenarios where there are no tolls on the MLK Freeway, resulting in a lower revenue stream,
the funding shortfalls are greater in the first three toll alternatives when compared to the comparable toll
scenarios with tolls on the MLK Freeway and the surpluses are less for the higher toll rate cases. As
shown in the chart below, in the public financing cases, the funding shortfalls range from $571.7 million in
the $0.50 toll alternative and $218.3 million in the $1.00 toll case. With the higher toll rates of $1.50 and
$2.00 there are funding surpluses of $9.4 million and $140.6 million, respectively. Based on the
assumptions we made, an additional $26.3 million of revenues over the revenues generated by the $1.00
toll is required in each year for the project to be fully self-supporting.
Comparison of Cases with No Tolls on MLK and Constant Tolls
(Public Finance Tax-Exempt Toll Revenue Bonds)
(Shortfall)/Surplus - $Thousands
200,000
100,000
0
(100,000)
1a
1b
1c
1d
1e
(200,000)
(300,000)
(400,000)
(500,000)
(600,000)
Case 1a: Toll 1$0.50; Case 1b: Toll 2 $0.75; Case 1c: Toll 3 $1.00; Case 1d: Toll 4 $1.50;
Case 1e: Toll 5 $2.00
Page C - 15
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
The chart below shows the shortfall and surplus in funding under the different toll alternatives assuming a
PPP structure. Under the lowest toll alternative, the project is not financially feasible with a shortfall in
funding of $575.5 million while under the highest toll alternative the project is self-supporting with a
surplus in funding of $100.9 million. The breakeven toll that would make project financially feasible is
between the $1.50 toll and the $2.00 toll. Based on the assumptions we made, an additional $3.5 million
of revenues over the revenues generated by the $1.50 toll is required in each year for the project to be
fully self-supporting.
(Shortfall)/Surplus - $Thousand
Comparison of Cases with NO Tolls on MLK and Constant Tolls
(Public-Private Partnership)
200,000
100,000
0
(100,000)
1a
1b
1c
1d
1e
(200,000)
(300,000)
(400,000)
(500,000)
(600,000)
Case 1a: Toll 1$0.50; Case 1b: Toll 2 $0.75; Case 1c: Toll 3 $1.00; Case 1d: Toll 4 $1.50;
Case 1e: Toll 5 $2.00
Tolls on MLK Freeway with Time of Day Pricing
Revenues generated under the toll scenarios with time of day pricing are higher than the constant toll
scenarios and therefore, funding shortfalls are less than the comparable constant toll cases. Under the
public finance model, as shown in the chart below, the funding shortfalls range from $535.5 million in the
$0.75 toll during peak times alternative and $91.0 million in the $1.50 peak time toll case. With the higher
peak time toll rates of $2.50 and $3.00 there are funding surpluses of $98.0 million and $221.3 million,
respectively. The breakeven toll rate is between $1.50 and $2.50. Based on the assumptions we made,
an additional $10.8 million of revenues is required in each year over the $1.50 toll alternative for the
project to be fully self-supporting.
Page C - 16
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Comparison of Cases with Tolls on MLK and Time of Day Tolls
(Public Finance Tax-Exempt Toll Revenue Bonds)
(Shortfall)/Surplus - $Thousands
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
4a
(100,000)
4b
4c
4d
4e
(200,000)
(300,000)
(400,000)
(500,000)
(600,000)
Case 4a: Toll 1: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT); MLK: $0.25 (AM, PM), $0.15 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Case 4b: Toll 2: $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT); MLK: $0.50 (AM, PM), $0.25 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Case 4c: Toll 3: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT); MLK: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Case 4d: Toll 4: $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT); MLK: $1.00 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
Case 4e: Toll 5: $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT); MLK: $1.25 (AM, PM), $1.00 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
The chart below shows the shortfall and surplus in funding under the different toll alternatives assuming a
PPP structure. Under the lowest toll alternative, the project is not financially feasible with a shortfall in
funding of $536.5 million while under the highest toll alternative the project is self-supporting with a
surplus in funding of $189.3 million. As in the public finance tax-exempt bonds case, the breakeven toll
that would make the project financially feasible is between the $1.50 toll and the $2.50 toll. Based on the
assumptions we made, an additional $13.8 million of revenues is required each year over the $1.50 toll
alternative for the project to be self-supporting.
Comparison of Cases with Tolls on MLK and Time of Day Tolls
(Public-Private Partnership)
(Shortfall)/Surplus - $Thousands
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
(100,000)
4a
4b
4c
4d
4e
(200,000)
(300,000)
(400,000)
(500,000)
(600,000)
Case 4a: Toll 1: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT); MLK: $0.25 (AM, PM), $0.15 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Case 4b: Toll 2: $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT); MLK: $0.50 (AM, PM), $0.25 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Case 4c: Toll 3: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT); MLK: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Case 4d: Toll 4: $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT); MLK: $1.00 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
Case 4e: Toll 5: $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT); MLK: $1.25 (AM, PM), $1.00 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
Page C - 17
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
No Tolls on MLK Freeway and Time of Day Pricing
Revenues generated under the toll scenarios with time of day pricing are higher than the constant toll
scenarios and therefore, funding shortfalls are less than the comparable constant toll cases. However,
since no tolls are charged on the MLK Freeway, the revenues are less than the toll scenarios with tolls on
the MLK Freeway. As shown in the chart below, under the public finance model, the funding shortfalls
range from $568.9 million in the $0.75 toll during peak times alternative and $135.2 million in the $1.50
peak time toll case. With the higher peak time toll rates of $2.50 and $3.00 there are funding surpluses of
$92.5 million and $208.9 million, respectively. The breakeven toll rate is between $1.50 and $2.50.
Based on the assumptions we made, an additional $16.3 million of revenues is required in each year over
the $1.50 toll alternative for the project to be fully self-supporting.
Comparison of Cases with NO Tolls on MLK and Time of Day Tolls
(Public Finance Tax-Exempt Toll Revenue Bonds)
(Shortfall)/Surplus - $Thousands
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
(100,000)
3a
3b
3c
3d
3e
(200,000)
(300,000)
(400,000)
(500,000)
(600,000)
Case 3a: Toll 1 $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT);
Case 3b: Toll 2 $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
Case 3c: Toll 3 $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
Case 3d: Toll 4 $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT)
Case 3e: Toll 5 $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
The chart below shows the shortfall and surplus in funding under the different toll alternatives assuming a
PPP structure. Under the lowest toll alternative, the project is not financially feasible with a shortfall in
funding of $572.3 million while under the highest toll alternative the project is self-supporting with a
surplus in funding of $167.1 million.
As in the public finance tax-exempt bonds case, the breakeven toll that would make project financially
feasible is between the $1.50 toll and the $2.50 toll. Based on the assumptions we made, an additional
$20.1 million of revenues is required in each year over the $1.50 toll alternative for the project to be fully
self-supporting.
Page C - 18
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Comparison of Cases with NO Tolls on MLK and Time of Day Tolls
(Public-Private Partnership)
(Shortfall)/Surplus - $Thousands
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
(100,000)
3a
3b
3c
3d
3e
(200,000)
(300,000)
(400,000)
(500,000)
(600,000)
Case 3a: Toll 1 $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT);
Case 3b: Toll 2 $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
Case 3c: Toll 3 $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
Case 3d: Toll 4 $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT)
Case 3e: Toll 5 $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
Comparison of Toll Scenarios
CRA International prepared traffic and revenue forecasts for four main tolling scenarios: (1) no toll on
MLK Freeway with constant tolls, (2) tolls on MLK Freeway with constant tolls, (3) no toll on MLK Freeway
with time of day tolls and (4) tolls on MLK Freeway with time of day tolls. In each of these tolling
scenarios, CRA further provided 5 different toll alternatives. The chart below compares the financial
feasibility of the third toll alternative in each toll scenario under a public finance structure. As the graph
shows, none of these toll scenarios fully supports the project. Higher tolls are required for the project to
be self-supporting. Based on our assumptions, the project is fully supporting under the fourth toll
alternative (the toll scenarios with $1.50 constant toll and $2.50 time of day tolls). Thus, the breakeven
toll is between $1.00 and $1.50 in the scenarios with constant tolls and between $1.50 and $2.50 in the
time of day tolling structure.
Comparison of Toll Scenarios wih Toll Alternative 3
(Public Finance Tax-Exempt Toll Revenue Bonds)
(Shortfall)/Surplus - $Thousands
50,000
0
(50,000)
1c
2c
3c
4c
(100,000)
(150,000)
(200,000)
(250,000)
(300,000)
Case 1c: Toll 3 $1.00; no toll on MLK
Case 2c: Toll 3 $1.00, $0.50 on MLK (Base Case);
Case 3c: Toll 3 $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT); no toll on MLK
Case 4c: Toll 3: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT); MLK: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Page C - 19
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Under a PPP framework with the taxable debt structure, higher tolls are also required for the project to be
self-supporting. Under the third toll alternatives, the project is not self-supporting in any of the cases. For
the public finance case, under the time of day tolling scenarios, the breakeven toll is between $1.50 and
$2.50. In the case with the constant tolls and tolls on the MLK Freeway, the breakeven toll is between
$1.00 and $1.50. In the case without tolls on the MLK Freeway and constant tolls, the breakeven toll is
between $1.50 and $2.00.
Comparison of Toll Scenarios with Toll Altermative 3
(Public-Private Partnership)
(Shortfall)/Surplus - $Thousands
50,000
0
(50,000)
1c
2c
3c
4c
(100,000)
(150,000)
(200,000)
(250,000)
(300,000)
Case 1c: Toll 3 $1.00; no toll on MLK
Case 2c: Toll 3 $1.00, $0.50 on MLK (Base Case);
Case 3c: Toll 3 $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT); no toll on MLK
Case 4c: Toll 3: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT); MLK: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.15 (NT)
Demand Risk Scenarios
CRA International also prepared three demand risk scenarios – low demand, high demand and demand
assuming the Hampton Roads Third Crossing. We analyzed the financial feasibility of these cases and
as expected under the low demand scenario the project is less self-supporting from toll revenues and
under the high demand scenarios the project is still not self-supporting with smaller shortfalls. With the
Hampton Roads Third Crossing, the project is more self-supporting when compared to the base case, but
there is still a funding shortfall of $120.7 million in the public financing case and $148.7 in the PPP case.
Exhibit A-1 and Exhibit A-2 provide summary results on these demand risk scenarios and the appendix
has the more detailed schedules.
The chart compares the shortfall and surplus in funding in the public financing cases under the various
demand risk scenarios with and without tolls on the MLK Freeway. In the cases with no tolls on the MLK
Freeway, the project was not feasible under the baseline demand case and thus, in the low demand risk
scenario, the shortfall in funding is greater at $264.9 million and under the high demand risk scenario,
there is still a shortfall in funding of $168.1 million. In the cases where there are tolls on the MLK
Freeway, the project is still not fully self-supporting in the high demand risk scenario with a shortfall of
$99.3 million. Under the Hampton Roads Third Crossing scenario, there is a shortfall in funding of $120.7
million.
Page C - 20
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Comparison of Demand Risk Cases with Constant Tolls
(Public Finance Tax-Exempt Toll Revenue Bonds)
(Shortfall)/Surplus - $Thousands
50,000
High
Demand
Low
Demand
Baseline
High
Demand
Baseline
Low
Demand
Third Harbor
Crossing
0
5a
(50,000)
1c
5b
5c
2c
5d
5e
(100,000)
(150,000)
(200,000)
(250,000)
With Tolls on MLK
No Tolls on MLK
(300,000)
The chart below shows the shortfall and surplus in funding under the different demand risk scenarios
assuming a PPP structure. As in the public finance model, in the cases with no tolls on the MLK
Freeway, the project was not feasible under the baseline demand case and thus, in the low demand risk
scenario, the shortfall in funding is greater at $293.6 million and under the high demand risk scenario,
there is still a shortfall in funding of $196.7 million.
In the cases where there are tolls on the MLK Freeway, the project is still not fully self-supporting in the
high demand risk scenario with a shortfall of $126.9 million. Under the Hampton Roads Third Crossing
scenario, there is a shortfall in funding of $148.7 million.
Comparison of Demand Risk Cases with Constant Tolls
(Public-Private Partnership)
(Shortfall)/Surplus - $Thousands
50,000
High
Demand
Baseline
Low
Demand
5a
1c
5b
High
Demand
Baseline
Low
Demand
Third Harbor
Crossing
0
(50,000)
5c
2c
5d
5e
(100,000)
(150,000)
(200,000)
(250,000)
(300,000)
(350,000)
No Tolls on MLK
With Tolls on MLK
Page C - 21
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Exhibit A-1
Summary of Cases - Public Finance Tax-Exempt Toll Revenue Bonds
Case
Senior
Bonds
Description
Subordinate
Bonds
Funding Withdrawal of PV Withdrawal of
(Shortfall)/ Revenue Surplus Revenue Surplus
Surplus
Over 50 Years
Over 50 Years
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
1a
Toll Alternative 1: ($0.50)
212,235,213
0
(571,711,492)
549,499,285
43,069,064
1b
Toll Alternative 2: ($0.75)
381,013,262
122,050,184
(359,094,261)
1,068,836,765
56,841,369
1c
Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00)
523,584,952
167,531,738
(218,260,892)
1,706,028,019
106,338,405
1d
Toll Alternative 4: ($1.50)
752,088,175
240,265,497
9,365,140
2,785,234,294
182,504,036
1e
Toll Alternative 5: ($2.00)
881,711,325
281,334,348
140,612,132
3,449,434,592
226,232,733
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2a
Toll Alternative 1: ($0.50, $0.15 on MLK)
235,305,377
6,421,238
(550,179,496)
631,849,196
50,475,399
2b
Toll Alternative 2: ($0.75, $0.25 on MLK)
423,844,288
148,269,710
(309,130,461)
1,228,852,427
56,985,689
2c
BASE CASE: Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
584,459,986
187,018,793
(155,952,700)
1,952,219,896
122,787,216
2d
Toll Alternative 4: ($1.50, $0.75 on MLK)
810,519,638
258,980,521
70,269,151
3,025,662,632
197,217,277
2e
Toll Alternative 5: ($2.00, $1.00 on MLK)
935,819,054
298,674,705
197,527,317
3,673,177,678
238,996,324
No Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
3a Toll Alternative 1: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
3b Toll Alternative 2: $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
3c
Toll Alternative 3: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
3d Toll Alternative 4: $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT)
3e Toll Alternative 5: $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
213,868,168
444,757,202
606,412,176
833,519,266
947,123,049
0
142,371,804
193,846,927
266,013,516
301,923,498
(568,865,113)
(295,734,236)
(135,210,722)
92,554,453
208,918,783
598,311,285
1,356,013,409
2,100,680,593
3,208,835,706
3,819,286,824
45,722,631
78,682,525
134,336,264
210,380,918
249,355,467
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
4a Toll Alternative 1: $0.75(AM, PM), $0.50(MD), $0.25(NT); MLK: $0.25(AM, PM), $0.15(MD), $0.15(NT)
4b Toll Alternative 2: $1.25(AM, PM), $0.75(MD), $0.50(NT); MLK: $0.50(AM, PM), $0.25(MD), $0.15(NT)
4c
Toll Alternative 3: $1.50(AM, PM), $1.25(MD), $0.50(NT); MLK: $0.75(AM, PM), $0.50(MD), $0.15(NT)
4d Toll Alternative 4: $2.50(AM, PM), $1.75(MD), $0.75(NT); MLK: $1.00(AM, PM), $0.75(MD), $0.25(NT)
4e Toll Alternative 5: $3.00(AM, PM), $2.50(MD), $1.00(NT); MLK: $1.25(AM, PM), $1.00(MD), $0.50(NT)
254,465,309
464,887,724
643,851,342
820,360,571
940,373,941
6,927,158
148,424,645
205,473,990
260,744,936
298,727,704
(535,534,859)
(271,140,691)
(91,010,251)
98,006,489
221,307,751
738,447,433
1,524,084,797
2,338,023,700
3,407,658,828
4,039,902,492
59,178,657
88,381,412
146,437,250
211,986,943
252,618,020
119,193,132
Demand Risk Scenarios
5a
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll)
571,303,670
182,773,830
(168,099,259)
1,910,874,921
5b
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll)
474,638,347
152,004,861
(264,883,548)
1,462,431,001
86,999,146
5c
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
641,483,395
205,205,357
(99,279,622)
2,205,912,451
141,148,495
5d
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
528,001,577
169,066,632
(212,666,946)
1,684,286,847
103,864,748
5e
Third Harbor Crossing ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
615,924,120
196,695,939
(120,699,221)
2,176,092,617
136,113,295
187,018,793
26,330,244
2,029,141,700
131,406,944
187,018,793
(701,830,927)
1,752,215,548
98,614,251
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Low Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2c
Low Estimate. Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
584,459,986
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; High Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2c
High Estimate. Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
584,459,986
Page C - 22
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Exhibit A-2
Summary of Cases - Public Private Partnership - Taxable Debt
Case
Senior
Bonds
Description
Subordinate
Equity
Bonds Contribution*
Funding
Withdrawal of PV Withdrawal of
(Shortfall)/ Revenue Surplus Revenue Surplus
Surplus
Over 50 Years
Over 50 Years
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
1a
Toll Alternative 1: ($0.50)
189,740,778
0
20,250,000 (575,532,016)
549,315,209
42,909,088
1b
Toll Alternative 2: ($0.75)
338,878,361
109,047,036
21,790,000 (394,218,172)
1,067,240,721
56,361,759
1c
Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00)
464,330,141
149,216,407
45,600,000 (251,390,863)
1,703,310,117
105,544,290
1d
Toll Alternative 4: ($1.50)
664,361,418
213,182,949
77,550,000
(27,152,328)
2,779,917,287
181,205,747
1e
Toll Alternative 5: ($2.00)
776,651,880
248,952,206
94,800,000
100,851,007
3,441,855,384
224,591,664
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2a
Toll Alternative 1: ($0.50, $0.15 on MLK)
210,366,601
5,772,969
23,850,000 (553,704,789)
631,704,800
50,303,820
2b
Toll Alternative 2: ($0.75, $0.25 on MLK)
376,590,229
121,194,474
28,050,000 (353,434,553)
1,227,025,683
69,707,188
2c
BASE CASE: Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK) - Taxable Debt
519,584,717
193,002,586
45,100,000 (183,763,636)
1,861,072,206
107,797,005
2c
BASE CASE: Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK) - PABs & TIFIA
556,177,258
256,140,603
35,050,000 (102,248,316)
1,763,008,684
89,601,748
2c
2d
2e
BASE CASE: Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK) - Bank Debt
Toll Alternative 4: ($1.50, $0.75 on MLK)
Toll Alternative 5: ($2.00, $1.00 on MLK)
476,516,000
717,466,410
826,193,211
69,951,400
258,342,557
298,341,121
47,506,532 (184,700,000)
70,100,000
43,209,039
85,100,000 169,981,897
2,291,081,019
2,884,438,609
3,497,063,679
131,128,216
172,000,797
210,350,850
No Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
3a
Toll Alternative 1: $0.75 (AM, PM), $0.50 (MD), $0.25 (NT)
190,196,705
3b
Toll Alternative 2: $1.25 (AM, PM), $0.75 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
394,825,392
3c
Toll Alternative 3: $1.50 (AM, PM), $1.25 (MD), $0.50 (NT)
536,616,877
3d
Toll Alternative 4: $2.50 (AM, PM), $1.75 (MD), $0.75 (NT)
734,609,640
3e
Toll Alternative 5: $3.00 (AM, PM), $2.50 (MD), $1.00 (NT)
832,299,757
0
126,940,397
172,324,616
235,508,629
266,516,286
21,040,000 (572,340,378)
31,600,000 (330,858,672)
57,400,000 (169,422,990)
88,500,000
54,013,895
103,500,000 167,125,405
597,353,384
1,353,671,185
2,096,921,714
3,201,804,630
3,810,160,917
45,435,943
78,076,324
133,346,167
208,843,993
247,463,836
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Toll Alternative 1: $0.75(AM,PM),$0.50(MD),$0.25(NT);MLK:$0.25(AM,PM),$0.15(MD),$0.15(NT)
4a
4b
Toll Alternative 2: $1.25(AM,PM),$0.75(MD),$0.50(NT);MLK:$0.50(AM,PM),$0.25(MD),$0.15(NT)
4c
Toll Alternative 3: $1.50(AM,PM),$1.25(MD),$0.50(NT);MLK:$0.75(AM,PM),$0.50(MD),$0.15(NT)
4d
Toll Alternative 4: $2.50(AM,PM),$1.75(MD),$0.75(NT);MLK:$1.00(AM,PM),$0.75(MD),$0.25(NT)
227,445,177
410,087,268
568,564,762
718,262,368
6,209,774
131,532,448
210,614,619
264,996,780
28,600,000 (536,552,834)
34,800,000 (307,074,132)
53,000,000 (119,012,894)
75,300,000
67,805,744
727,900,188
1,521,345,814
2,229,792,073
3,250,388,407
59,984,423
87,402,345
129,241,159
189,442,500
4e
822,642,309
303,338,355
89,500,000
3,859,446,989
226,544,001
104,402,967
Toll Alternative 5: $3.00(AM,PM),$2.50(MD),$1.00(NT);MLK:$1.25(AM,PM),$1.00(MD),$0.50(NT)
189,341,146
Demand Risk Scenarios
5a
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll)
507,519,413
188,463,167
43,400,000 (196,025,372)
1,821,203,722
5b
Demand Risk with No Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll)
422,704,297
157,132,405
30,300,000 (293,650,036)
1,391,926,200
74,556,654
5c
5d
5e
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
Demand Risk with Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
Third Harbor Crossing ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
569,922,871
470,222,140
544,828,482
211,631,979
174,785,338
201,948,823
52,400,000 (126,948,143)
37,600,000 (240,768,456)
49,350,000 (148,749,263)
2,104,267,437
1,603,172,839
2,074,757,127
124,768,823
90,322,713
119,841,901
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Low Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2c
Low Estimate. Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
519,584,717
193,002,586
49,150,000
1,936,352,734
116,678,800
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; High Estimate of Construction Costs and Renewal & Replacement Expenses
2c
High Estimate. Toll Alternative 3: ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK)
519,584,717
193,002,586
17,850,000 (756,891,863)
1,749,312,728
71,419,892
* Equity Contribution is determined to be the amount that would yield a pre-tax rate of return of 12.00 percent.
2,569,308
Page C - 23
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
DETAILED SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS
AND
FINANCING RESULTS
December 2007
Page C-24
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Base Case with Low Project Estimates – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Case 2c Low Estimate Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 3 ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK), Low Estimate of
Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
412,830,000
171,629,986
134,730,000
52,288,793
115,070,164
886,548,943
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
625,289,000
72,267,661
8,714,788
153,947,250
0
860,218,699
26,330,244
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
% of Total
46.6%
19.4%
15.2%
5.9%
13.0%
100.0%
72.7%
8.4%
1.0%
17.9%
0.0%
100.0%
53,678,973
128,902,400
1,878,764,050
1.75
1.41
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
72,267,661
173,523,100
2,529,368,150
1.30
1.04
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
50.2%
49.8%
2015
5.890%
40.00
29.95
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
2,029,141,700
7,636,327,280
18,199,913,985
PV @ 8.00%
131,406,944
179,631,427
192,738,826
Page C-25
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Base Case with Low Project Estimates – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing - Taxable Debt
Case 2c Low Estimate Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 3 ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK), Low
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
377,895,000
141,689,717
143,005,000
49,997,586
121,514,820
49,150,000
883,252,123
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
625,289,000
71,258,730
8,125,873
176,009,213
0
880,682,816
2,569,308
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
% of Total
42.8%
16.0%
16.2%
5.7%
13.8%
5.6%
100.0%
71.0%
8.1%
0.9%
20.0%
0.0%
100.0%
54,544,081
1,878,117,188
128,291,875
1.75
1.21
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
76,362,556
2,619,945,338
179,611,663
1.25
1.21
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
49.6%
50.4%
2016
6.655%
40.00
30.15
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,936,352,734
7,543,538,314
18,107,125,019
PV @ 8.00%
116,678,800
164,903,282
178,010,682
12.00%
12.56%
12.60%
Page C-26
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Base Case with High Project Estimates – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Case 2c High Estimate Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 3 ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK), Low Estimate of
Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
412,830,000
171,629,986
134,730,000
52,288,793
221,006,994
992,485,772
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
1,459,387,000
72,267,661
8,714,788
153,947,250
0
1,694,316,699
(701,830,927)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
53,678,973
128,902,400
1,878,764,050
1.75
1.41
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.6%
17.3%
13.6%
5.3%
22.3%
100.0%
86.1%
4.3%
0.5%
9.1%
0.0%
100.0%
72,267,661
173,523,100
2,529,368,150
1.30
1.04
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
50.2%
49.8%
2015
5.890%
40.00
29.95
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,752,215,548
6,444,829,527
16,166,324,954
PV @ 8.00%
98,614,251
140,529,326
152,424,816
Page C-27
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Base Case with High Project Estimates – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing - Taxable Debt
Case 2c High Estimate Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 3 ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK), Low
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
377,895,000
141,689,717
143,005,000
49,997,586
227,451,650
17,850,000
957,888,953
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
1,459,387,000
71,258,730
8,125,873
176,009,213
0
1,714,780,816
(756,891,863)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
54,544,081
1,878,117,188
128,291,875
1.75
1.21
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
39.5%
14.8%
14.9%
5.2%
23.7%
1.9%
100.0%
85.1%
4.2%
0.5%
10.3%
0.0%
100.0%
76,362,556
2,619,945,338
179,611,663
1.25
1.21
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
49.6%
50.4%
2016
6.655%
40.00
30.15
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,749,312,728
6,441,926,707
16,163,422,133
PV @ 8.00%
71,419,892
113,334,967
125,230,457
12.00%
12.67%
12.72%
Page C-28
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
High Demand Risk – Public Financing
No Tolls on MLK Freeway
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Scenario:
Demand Risk With No Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll)
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
400,370,000
170,933,670
130,710,000
52,063,830
140,702,037
894,779,538
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
70,928,272
8,540,775
149,314,750
0
1,062,878,797
(168,099,259)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
52,684,209
126,689,775
1,843,947,325
1.75
1.41
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
44.7%
19.1%
14.6%
5.8%
15.7%
100.0%
78.5%
6.7%
0.8%
14.0%
0.0%
100.0%
70,928,272
170,544,875
2,482,489,525
1.30
1.04
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
49.7%
50.3%
2015
5.893%
40.00
29.94
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,910,874,921
7,165,405,054
17,349,498,879
PV @ 8.00%
119,193,132
164,821,331
177,403,381
Page C-29
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
High Demand Risk – PPP Financing
No Tolls on MLK Freeway
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Scenario:
Demand Risk With No Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll)
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
366,375,000
141,144,413
138,635,000
49,828,167
146,884,495
43,400,000
886,267,075
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
69,598,258
7,959,826
170,639,363
0
1,082,292,446
(196,025,372)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
53,525,542
1,842,766,875
125,893,438
1.75
1.20
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.3%
15.9%
15.6%
5.6%
16.6%
4.9%
100.0%
77.1%
6.4%
0.7%
15.8%
0.0%
100.0%
74,937,274
2,570,765,763
176,252,300
1.25
1.20
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
49.0%
51.0%
2016
6.659%
40.00
30.13
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,822,236,101
7,076,766,234
17,260,860,059
PV @ 8.00%
104,354,550
149,982,749
162,564,799
12.00%
12.56%
12.61%
Page C-30
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Low Demand Risk – Public Financing
No Tolls on MLK Freeway
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Scenario:
Demand Risk With No Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll)
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
340,725,000
133,913,347
111,255,000
40,749,861
135,037,047
761,680,255
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
58,126,496
7,266,432
127,075,875
0
1,026,563,804
(264,883,548)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
43,175,274
103,340,725
1,511,134,575
1.75
1.39
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
44.7%
17.6%
14.6%
5.3%
17.7%
100.0%
81.3%
5.7%
0.7%
12.4%
0.0%
100.0%
58,126,496
139,114,025
2,034,427,375
1.30
1.02
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
51.6%
48.4%
2015
5.882%
40.00
29.97
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,462,431,001
5,368,950,104
13,086,464,460
PV @ 8.00%
86,999,146
121,600,149
131,111,321
Page C-31
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Low Demand Risk – PPP Financing
No Tolls on MLK Freeway
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Scenario:
Demand Risk With No Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll)
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
312,185,000
110,519,297
118,130,000
39,002,405
140,490,761
30,300,000
750,627,464
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
57,983,670
6,798,367
145,400,463
0
1,044,277,500
(293,650,036)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
43,886,967
1,511,668,438
103,255,000
1.75
1.18
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.6%
14.7%
15.7%
5.2%
18.7%
4.0%
100.0%
79.9%
5.6%
0.7%
13.9%
0.0%
100.0%
61,443,464
2,108,589,350
144,560,650
1.25
1.18
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
50.9%
49.1%
2016
6.647%
40.00
30.18
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,391,926,200
5,298,445,303
13,015,959,659
PV @ 8.00%
74,556,654
109,157,657
118,668,829
12.00%
12.61%
12.65%
Page C-32
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
High Demand Risk – Public Financing
With Tolls on MLK Freeway
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Scenario:
Demand Risk With Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
449,975,000
191,508,395
146,850,000
58,355,357
144,979,346
991,668,098
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
79,587,707
9,466,888
167,798,125
0
1,090,947,720
(99,279,622)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
59,116,499
142,089,450
2,069,077,450
1.75
1.42
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
45.4%
19.3%
14.8%
5.9%
14.6%
100.0%
76.5%
7.3%
0.9%
15.4%
0.0%
100.0%
79,587,707
191,272,850
2,785,569,750
1.30
1.05
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
49.7%
50.3%
2015
5.893%
40.00
29.94
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
2,205,912,451
8,316,424,660
20,014,505,339
PV @ 8.00%
141,148,495
193,810,755
208,288,678
Page C-33
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
High Demand Risk – PPP Financing
With Tolls on MLK Freeway
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Scenario:
Demand Risk With Tolls on MLK, High Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
411,790,000
158,132,871
155,785,000
55,846,979
151,940,341
52,400,000
985,895,191
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
78,155,485
8,815,548
191,777,300
0
1,112,843,333
(126,948,143)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
60,062,270
2,067,854,063
141,229,688
1.75
1.21
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.8%
16.0%
15.8%
5.7%
15.4%
5.3%
100.0%
75.0%
7.0%
0.8%
17.2%
0.0%
100.0%
84,088,720
2,884,753,350
197,720,563
1.25
1.21
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
49.1%
50.9%
2016
6.659%
40.00
30.13
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
2,104,267,437
8,214,779,646
19,912,860,325
PV @ 8.00%
124,768,823
177,431,083
191,909,006
12.00%
12.57%
12.62%
Page C-34
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Low Demand Risk – Public Financing
With Tolls on MLK Freeway
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Scenario:
Demand Risk With Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
378,930,000
149,071,577
123,670,000
45,396,632
138,302,270
835,370,478
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
64,664,991
7,970,682
141,306,750
0
1,048,037,424
(212,666,946)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
48,032,097
114,951,350
1,681,123,400
1.75
1.40
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
45.4%
17.8%
14.8%
5.4%
16.6%
100.0%
79.6%
6.2%
0.8%
13.5%
0.0%
100.0%
64,664,991
154,738,550
2,263,274,700
1.30
1.03
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
51.5%
48.5%
2015
5.882%
40.00
29.97
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,684,286,847
6,237,315,469
15,102,591,306
PV @ 8.00%
103,864,748
143,775,864
154,723,381
Page C-35
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Low Demand Risk – PPP Financing
With Tolls on MLK Freeway
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Scenario:
Demand Risk With Tolls on MLK, Low Demand ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
347,180,000
123,042,140
131,370,000
43,415,338
144,368,488
37,600,000
826,975,966
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
64,500,748
7,450,075
161,698,600
0
1,067,744,423
(240,768,456)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
48,824,246
1,681,723,125
114,852,500
1.75
1.20
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
42.0%
14.9%
15.9%
5.2%
17.5%
4.5%
100.0%
78.1%
6.0%
0.7%
15.1%
0.0%
100.0%
68,354,954
2,345,767,175
160,796,600
1.25
1.20
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
50.9%
49.1%
2016
6.647%
40.00
30.18
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,603,172,839
6,156,201,461
15,021,477,298
PV @ 8.00%
90,322,713
130,233,829
141,181,346
12.00%
12.57%
12.62%
Page C-36
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Hampton Roads Third Crossing – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Scenario:
Third Harbor Crossing ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
415,400,000
200,524,120
135,605,000
61,090,939
143,007,387
955,627,446
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
78,188,966
9,126,201
154,916,500
0
1,076,326,667
(120,699,221)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
58,077,615
140,476,200
2,032,716,525
1.75
1.42
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
43.5%
21.0%
14.2%
6.4%
15.0%
100.0%
77.5%
7.3%
0.8%
14.4%
0.0%
100.0%
78,188,966
189,105,500
2,736,613,825
1.30
1.05
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
46.7%
53.3%
2015
5.911%
40.00
29.90
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
2,176,092,617
8,218,433,750
19,787,666,488
PV @ 8.00%
136,113,295
188,220,394
202,538,765
Page C-37
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Hampton Roads Third Crossing – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Scenario:
Third Harbor Crossing ($1.00 Toll, $0.50 on MLK)
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
379,270,000
165,558,482
143,480,000
58,468,823
148,995,211
49,350,000
945,122,516
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
74,677,731
8,467,773
176,631,275
0
1,093,871,779
(148,749,263)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
58,955,368
2,028,186,875
138,372,813
1.75
1.20
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
40.1%
17.5%
15.2%
6.2%
15.8%
5.2%
100.0%
76.3%
6.8%
0.8%
16.1%
0.0%
100.0%
82,537,553
2,829,981,175
193,719,625
1.25
1.20
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
46.1%
53.9%
2016
6.678%
40.00
30.06
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
2,074,757,127
8,117,098,261
19,686,330,999
PV @ 8.00%
119,841,901
171,949,000
186,267,371
12.00%
12.55%
12.60%
Page C-38
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 1a - Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 1 ($0.50), Baseline Estimate of
Scenario:
Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
158,815,000
53,420,213
0
0
115,664,138
327,899,350
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
834,095,000
18,719,365
3,122,352
43,674,125
0
899,610,842
(571,711,492)
% of Total
48.4%
16.3%
0.0%
0.0%
35.3%
100.0%
92.7%
2.1%
0.3%
4.9%
0.0%
100.0%
18,719,365
40,398,400
655,177,775
1.75
1.31
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
18,719,365
40,398,400
655,177,775
na
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
55.4%
44.6%
2015
5.736%
40.00
29.84
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
549,499,285
1,047,146,318
2,107,852,299
PV @ 8.00%
43,069,064
48,989,469
50,271,598
Page C-39
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 1a –PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 1 ($0.50), Baseline Estimate of
Scenario:
Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
145,645,000
44,095,778
0
0
115,957,755
20,250,000
325,948,532
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
834,095,000
18,974,078
2,897,408
45,514,063
0
901,480,548
(575,532,016)
% of Total
44.7%
13.5%
0.0%
0.0%
35.6%
6.2%
100.0%
92.5%
2.1%
0.3%
5.0%
0.0%
100.0%
19,025,055
655,954,688
40,558,438
1.75
1.26
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
19,025,055
655,954,688
40,558,438
na
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
54.8%
45.2%
2016
6.487%
40.00
30.08
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
549,315,209
1,044,631,511
2,119,398,030
PV @ 8.00%
42,909,088
48,839,068
50,113,795
12.00%
12.23%
12.24%
Page C-40
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 1b- Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 2 ($0.75), Baseline Estimate of
Scenario:
Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
275,460,000
105,553,262
89,900,000
32,150,184
132,380,544
635,443,989
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
834,095,000
46,297,116
6,030,634
108,115,500
0
994,538,251
(359,094,261)
% of Total
43.3%
16.6%
14.1%
5.1%
20.8%
100.0%
83.9%
4.7%
0.6%
10.9%
0.0%
100.0%
34,502,219
82,152,425
1,207,577,675
1.75
1.20
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
46,297,116
110,586,425
1,620,399,075
1.30
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
52.2%
47.8%
2015
5.878%
40.00
29.97
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,068,836,765
3,706,839,578
8,969,909,619
PV @ 8.00%
56,841,369
81,150,240
87,633,968
Page C-41
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 1b- PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 2 ($0.75), Baseline Estimate of
Scenario:
Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
251,835,000
87,043,361
82,470,000
26,577,036
132,532,012
21,790,000
602,247,409
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
834,095,000
44,792,540
5,479,254
112,098,788
0
996,465,581
(394,218,172)
% of Total
41.8%
14.5%
13.7%
4.4%
22.0%
3.6%
100.0%
83.7%
4.5%
0.5%
11.2%
0.0%
100.0%
35,003,539
1,205,860,000
81,250,938
1.75
1.15
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
47,121,234
1,617,861,650
109,375,813
1.30
1.15
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
51.5%
48.5%
2016
6.630%
40.00
30.17
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,067,240,721
3,714,356,035
8,980,166,407
PV @ 8.00%
56,361,759
80,623,932
87,106,513
12.00%
12.55%
12.59%
Page C-42
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 1c – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 3 ($1.00), Baseline Estimate of
Scenario:
Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
368,740,000
154,844,952
120,370,000
47,161,738
142,021,579
833,138,268
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
64,656,294
7,911,167
144,736,700
0
1,051,399,160
(218,260,892)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
48,178,491
115,681,700
1,686,247,175
1.75
1.24
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
44.3%
18.6%
14.4%
5.7%
17.0%
100.0%
79.3%
6.1%
0.8%
13.8%
0.0%
100.0%
64,656,294
155,726,000
2,262,970,275
1.30
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
50.0%
50.0%
2015
5.891%
40.00
29.95
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,706,028,019
6,337,244,415
15,381,060,207
PV @ 8.00%
106,338,405
146,867,526
158,029,883
Page C-43
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 1c – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 3 ($1.00), Baseline Estimate of
Scenario:
Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
336,595,000
127,735,141
110,190,000
39,026,407
141,860,597
45,600,000
801,007,145
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
61,354,655
7,135,465
149,812,888
0
1,052,398,008
(251,390,863)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
48,849,384
1,681,916,250
113,698,125
1.75
1.19
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
42.0%
15.9%
13.8%
4.9%
17.7%
5.7%
100.0%
79.3%
5.8%
0.7%
14.2%
0.0%
100.0%
65,759,360
2,256,855,425
153,060,638
1.30
1.19
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
49.3%
50.7%
2016
6.643%
40.00
30.14
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,703,310,117
6,341,360,889
15,387,917,012
PV @ 8.00%
105,544,290
146,037,077
157,198,286
12.00%
12.50%
12.54%
Page C-44
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 1d – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 4 ($1.50), Baseline Estimate of
Scenario:
Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
510,460,000
241,628,175
166,650,000
73,615,497
157,257,862
1,149,611,534
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
94,857,358
10,923,537
200,370,500
0
1,140,246,395
9,365,140
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
70,671,098
171,236,525
2,473,488,425
1.75
1.27
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
44.4%
21.0%
14.5%
6.4%
13.7%
100.0%
73.2%
8.3%
1.0%
17.6%
0.0%
100.0%
94,857,358
230,507,925
3,320,007,525
1.30
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
47.2%
52.8%
2015
5.908%
40.00
29.92
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
2,785,234,294
10,730,168,867
26,060,595,412
PV @ 8.00%
182,504,036
250,004,621
268,946,951
Page C-45
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 1d – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 4 ($1.50), Baseline Estimate of
Scenario:
Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
464,955,000
199,406,418
152,225,000
60,957,949
156,327,748
77,550,000
1,111,422,114
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
87,754,437
9,775,444
206,949,563
0
1,138,574,443
(27,152,328)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
71,601,397
2,463,507,188
166,973,750
1.75
1.22
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.8%
17.9%
13.7%
5.5%
14.1%
7.0%
100.0%
73.3%
7.7%
0.9%
18.2%
0.0%
100.0%
96,387,145
3,306,222,625
224,772,413
1.30
1.22
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
46.5%
53.5%
2016
6.661%
40.00
30.08
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
2,779,917,287
10,731,686,235
26,064,853,112
PV @ 8.00%
181,205,747
248,669,997
267,611,180
12.00%
12.48%
12.52%
Page C-46
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 1e – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 5 ($2.00), Baseline Estimate of
Scenario:
Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
582,140,000
299,571,325
190,000,000
91,334,348
165,663,407
1,328,709,081
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
112,882,991
12,630,457
228,488,500
0
1,188,096,948
140,612,132
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
84,090,497
204,896,825
2,943,167,400
1.75
1.27
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
43.8%
22.5%
14.3%
6.9%
12.5%
100.0%
70.2%
9.5%
1.1%
19.2%
0.0%
100.0%
112,882,991
275,825,325
3,950,904,700
1.30
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
45.2%
54.8%
2015
5.920%
40.00
29.89
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
3,449,434,592
13,429,202,677
32,648,962,679
PV @ 8.00%
226,232,733
310,277,881
334,027,583
Page C-47
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 1e – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
No Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 5 ($2.00), Baseline Estimate of
Scenario:
Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
529,355,000
247,296,880
173,345,000
75,607,206
163,986,533
94,800,000
1,284,390,619
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
102,560,409
11,256,041
235,628,163
0
1,183,539,612
100,851,007
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
85,153,336
2,928,298,125
198,705,000
1.75
1.23
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.2%
19.3%
13.5%
5.9%
12.8%
7.4%
100.0%
70.5%
8.7%
1.0%
19.9%
0.0%
100.0%
114,630,246
3,930,513,050
267,484,913
1.30
1.23
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
44.5%
55.5%
2016
6.674%
40.00
30.04
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
3,441,855,384
13,428,457,844
32,650,958,177
PV @ 8.00%
224,591,664
308,600,478
332,349,033
12.00%
12.48%
12.52%
Page C-48
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 2a – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 1 ($0.50, $0.15 on MLK), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
176,015,000
59,290,377
4,895,000
1,526,238
117,108,012
358,834,626
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
834,095,000
21,335,531
3,417,266
50,166,325
0
909,014,123
(550,179,496)
% of Total
49.1%
16.5%
1.4%
0.4%
32.6%
100.0%
91.8%
2.3%
0.4%
5.5%
0.0%
100.0%
20,733,509
44,887,250
725,672,800
1.75
1.23
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
21,335,531
46,211,450
746,743,600
1.70
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
55.5%
44.5%
2015
5.750%
40.00
29.82
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
631,849,196
1,302,614,314
2,521,796,374
PV @ 8.00%
50,475,399
58,152,841
59,652,692
Page C-49
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 2a - PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 1 ($0.50, $0.15 on MLK), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
161,405,000
48,961,601
4,510,000
1,262,969
117,441,607
23,850,000
357,431,176
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
834,095,000
21,613,957
3,161,396
52,265,613
0
911,135,965
(553,704,789)
% of Total
45.2%
13.7%
1.3%
0.4%
32.9%
6.7%
100.0%
91.5%
2.4%
0.3%
5.7%
0.0%
100.0%
21,071,020
726,502,500
45,055,000
1.75
1.19
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
21,691,286
747,591,538
46,381,600
1.70
1.19
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
54.9%
45.1%
2016
6.500%
40.00
30.06
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
631,704,800
1,302,474,867
2,521,647,130
PV @ 8.00%
50,303,820
57,981,290
59,481,122
12.00%
12.24%
12.25%
Page C-50
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 2b – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 2 ($0.75, $0.25 on MLK), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
307,575,000
116,269,288
109,620,000
38,649,710
136,179,877
708,293,875
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
52,561,871
6,721,140
124,046,325
0
1,017,424,336
(309,130,461)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
38,276,891
91,572,425
1,339,691,200
1.75
1.22
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
43.4%
16.4%
15.5%
5.5%
19.2%
100.0%
82.0%
5.2%
0.7%
12.2%
0.0%
100.0%
52,561,871
126,184,425
1,839,665,500
1.27
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
52.5%
47.5%
2015
5.885%
40.00
29.97
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,228,852,427
4,308,378,402
10,269,300,629
PV @ 8.00%
56,985,689
84,969,778
92,345,057
Page C-51
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 2b – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 2 ($0.75, $0.25 on MLK), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
280,745,000
95,845,229
91,925,000
29,269,474
135,544,499
28,050,000
661,379,202
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
49,778,470
5,977,847
124,962,438
0
1,014,813,755
(353,434,553)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
38,779,311
1,336,043,125
89,902,813
1.75
1.17
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
42.4%
14.5%
13.9%
4.4%
20.5%
4.2%
100.0%
82.2%
4.9%
0.6%
12.3%
0.0%
100.0%
52,203,382
1,792,461,563
121,022,913
1.30
1.17
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
51.8%
48.2%
2016
6.628%
40.00
30.17
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,227,025,683
4,306,551,658
10,267,473,884
PV @ 8.00%
69,707,188
97,691,277
105,066,556
12.00%
12.52%
12.56%
Page C-52
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 2c – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 3 ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
412,830,000
171,629,986
134,730,000
52,288,793
141,593,221
913,071,999
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
72,267,661
8,714,788
153,947,250
0
1,069,024,699
(155,952,700)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
53,678,973
128,902,400
1,878,764,050
1.75
1.41
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
45.2%
18.8%
14.8%
5.7%
15.5%
100.0%
78.0%
6.8%
0.8%
14.4%
0.0%
100.0%
72,267,661
173,523,100
2,529,368,150
1.30
1.04
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
50.2%
49.8%
2015
5.890%
40.00
29.95
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,952,219,896
7,310,725,166
17,644,406,136
PV @ 8.00%
122,787,216
169,290,727
182,067,543
Page C-53
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 2c – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 3 ($1.00, $0.50 on MLK), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
377,895,000
141,689,717
143,005,000
49,997,586
148,037,876
45,100,000
905,725,179
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
71,258,730
8,125,873
176,009,213
0
1,089,488,816
(183,763,636)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
54,544,081
1,878,117,188
128,291,875
1.75
1.21
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.7%
15.6%
15.8%
5.5%
16.3%
5.0%
100.0%
76.6%
6.5%
0.7%
16.2%
0.0%
100.0%
76,362,556
2,619,945,338
179,611,663
1.25
1.21
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
49.6%
50.4%
2016
6.655%
40.00
30.15
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,861,072,206
7,219,577,476
17,553,258,445
PV @ 8.00%
107,797,005
154,300,516
167,077,332
12.00%
12.56%
12.60%
Page C-54
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 2d - Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 4 ($1.50, $0.75 on MLK), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
552,390,000
258,129,638
180,350,000
78,630,521
154,868,693
1,224,368,853
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
102,297,451
11,695,002
206,012,250
0
1,154,099,702
70,269,151
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
75,985,276
184,115,075
2,659,484,675
1.75
1.44
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
45.1%
21.1%
14.7%
6.4%
12.6%
100.0%
72.3%
8.9%
1.0%
17.9%
0.0%
100.0%
102,297,451
247,850,475
3,580,410,775
1.30
1.06
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
47.5%
52.5%
2015
5.906%
40.00
29.92
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
3,025,662,632
11,689,880,174
28,324,382,440
PV @ 8.00%
197,217,277
270,609,189
291,177,617
Page C-55
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 2d – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 4 ($1.50, $0.75 on MLK), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
504,340,000
213,126,410
170,980,000
87,362,557
155,046,059
70,100,000
1,200,955,025
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
97,580,897
10,758,090
215,312,000
0
1,157,745,986
43,209,039
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
77,112,978
2,653,362,500
181,289,688
1.75
1.38
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
42.0%
17.7%
14.2%
7.3%
12.9%
5.8%
100.0%
72.0%
8.4%
0.9%
18.6%
0.0%
100.0%
107,958,972
3,713,667,450
253,808,125
1.25
1.01
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
45.4%
54.6%
2016
6.681%
40.00
29.98
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
2,884,438,609
11,548,656,151
28,183,158,417
PV @ 8.00%
172,000,797
245,392,709
265,961,136
12.00%
12.53%
12.57%
Page C-56
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 2e - Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 5 ($2.00, $1.00 on MLK), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
621,380,000
314,439,054
202,845,000
95,829,705
162,007,754
1,396,501,513
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
119,801,259
13,344,938
231,733,000
0
1,198,974,196
197,527,317
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
88,987,213
216,806,025
3,114,552,450
1.75
1.45
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
44.5%
22.5%
14.5%
6.9%
11.6%
100.0%
69.6%
10.0%
1.1%
19.3%
0.0%
100.0%
119,801,259
291,855,225
4,193,044,050
1.30
1.07
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
45.6%
54.4%
2015
5.917%
40.00
29.90
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
3,673,177,678
14,320,136,080
34,760,631,290
PV @ 8.00%
238,996,324
328,499,370
353,768,899
Page C-57
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 2e – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Toll on MLK with Constant Tolls; Toll Alternative 5 ($2.00, $1.00 on MLK), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
566,505,000
259,688,211
194,525,000
103,816,121
161,826,342
85,100,000
1,371,460,674
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
112,453,433
12,245,343
242,685,000
0
1,201,478,776
169,981,897
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
90,266,480
3,104,466,875
212,396,563
1.75
1.39
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.3%
18.9%
14.2%
7.6%
11.8%
6.2%
100.0%
69.4%
9.4%
1.0%
20.2%
0.0%
100.0%
126,373,204
4,345,225,950
297,358,063
1.25
1.01
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
43.8%
56.2%
2016
6.692%
40.00
29.96
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
3,497,063,679
14,144,022,081
34,584,517,291
PV @ 8.00%
210,350,850
299,853,897
325,123,425
12.00%
12.52%
12.57%
Page C-58
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 3a- Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
No toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 1 ($0.75 AM PM), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
151,165,000
62,703,168
0
0
115,559,175
329,427,343
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
834,095,000
19,488,400
3,138,682
41,570,375
0
898,292,457
(568,865,113)
% of Total
45.9%
19.0%
0.0%
0.0%
35.1%
100.0%
92.9%
2.2%
0.3%
4.6%
0.0%
100.0%
19,488,400
42,537,275
682,094,000
1.75
1.17
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
19,488,400
42,537,275
682,094,000
na
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
50.7%
49.3%
2015
5.765%
40.00
29.74
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
598,311,285
1,228,042,322
2,517,595,524
PV @ 8.00%
45,722,631
52,953,451
54,522,027
Page C-59
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 3a – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
No toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 1 ($0.75 AM PM), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
138,345,000
51,851,705
0
0
115,672,367
21,040,000
326,909,072
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
834,095,000
19,019,671
2,901,967
43,232,813
0
899,249,450
(572,340,378)
% of Total
42.3%
15.9%
0.0%
0.0%
35.4%
6.4%
100.0%
92.8%
2.1%
0.3%
4.8%
0.0%
100.0%
19,796,029
681,711,563
42,252,813
1.75
1.12
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
19,796,029
681,711,563
42,252,813
na
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
50.0%
50.0%
2016
6.516%
40.00
29.94
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
597,353,384
1,227,084,421
2,516,642,508
PV @ 8.00%
45,435,943
52,666,763
54,235,337
12.00%
12.25%
12.26%
Page C-60
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 3b- Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
No toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 2 ($1.25 AM PM), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
315,715,000
129,042,202
103,090,000
39,281,804
136,641,467
723,770,473
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
54,604,394
6,871,290
123,934,025
0
1,019,504,709
(295,734,236)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
40,690,382
97,320,200
1,424,163,375
1.75
1.22
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
43.6%
17.8%
14.2%
5.4%
18.9%
100.0%
81.8%
5.4%
0.7%
12.2%
0.0%
100.0%
54,604,394
131,006,400
1,911,153,775
1.30
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
50.7%
49.3%
2015
5.887%
40.00
29.94
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,356,013,409
4,890,035,331
11,838,957,617
PV @ 8.00%
78,682,525
110,289,343
118,861,874
Page C-61
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 3b – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
No toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 2 ($1.25 AM PM), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
288,365,000
106,460,392
94,410,000
32,530,397
136,614,888
31,600,000
689,980,677
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
52,176,579
6,217,658
128,350,113
0
1,020,839,349
(330,858,672)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
41,263,529
1,420,982,813
95,764,688
1.75
1.17
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.8%
15.4%
13.7%
4.7%
19.8%
4.6%
100.0%
81.7%
5.1%
0.6%
12.6%
0.0%
100.0%
55,547,840
1,906,649,375
128,916,600
1.30
1.17
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
50.0%
50.0%
2016
6.639%
40.00
30.13
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,353,671,185
4,896,805,607
11,848,468,224
PV @ 8.00%
78,076,324
109,636,445
118,207,828
12.00%
12.52%
12.56%
Page C-62
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 3c – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
No toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 3 ($1.50 AM PM), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
418,070,000
188,342,176
136,455,000
57,391,927
147,472,651
947,731,755
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
75,751,836
9,002,591
164,093,050
0
1,082,942,477
(135,210,722)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
56,441,330
136,095,275
1,975,446,550
1.75
1.25
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
44.1%
19.9%
14.4%
6.1%
15.6%
100.0%
77.0%
7.0%
0.8%
15.2%
0.0%
100.0%
75,751,836
183,207,875
2,651,314,250
1.30
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
48.4%
51.6%
2015
5.901%
40.00
29.92
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
2,100,680,593
7,940,826,927
19,257,875,596
PV @ 8.00%
134,336,264
184,717,622
198,697,314
Page C-63
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 3c – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
No toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 3 ($1.50 AM PM), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
381,175,000
155,441,877
124,815,000
47,509,616
146,981,345
57,400,000
913,322,837
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
70,894,149
8,089,415
169,667,263
0
1,082,745,827
(169,422,990)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
57,203,612
1,968,746,250
133,180,938
1.75
1.20
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.7%
17.0%
13.7%
5.2%
16.1%
6.3%
100.0%
77.0%
6.5%
0.7%
15.7%
0.0%
100.0%
77,006,317
2,642,038,200
179,278,650
1.30
1.20
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
47.7%
52.3%
2016
6.653%
40.00
30.09
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
2,096,921,714
7,943,902,423
19,263,691,423
PV @ 8.00%
133,346,167
183,693,882
197,672,428
12.00%
12.49%
12.53%
Page C-64
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 3d – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
No toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 4 ($2.50 AM PM), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
552,685,000
280,834,266
180,405,000
85,608,516
162,445,097
1,261,977,879
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
106,398,923
11,995,328
216,934,175
0
1,169,423,426
92,554,453
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
79,261,829
192,795,900
2,774,164,000
1.75
1.26
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
43.8%
22.3%
14.3%
6.8%
12.9%
100.0%
71.3%
9.1%
1.0%
18.6%
0.0%
100.0%
106,398,923
259,536,600
3,723,962,300
1.30
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
45.6%
54.4%
2015
5.918%
40.00
29.89
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
3,208,835,706
12,444,068,977
30,209,302,401
PV @ 8.00%
210,380,918
288,391,641
310,349,804
Page C-65
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 3d – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
No toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 4 ($2.50 AM PM), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
502,740,000
231,869,640
164,580,000
70,928,629
160,964,786
88,500,000
1,219,583,055
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
97,011,827
10,701,183
223,761,150
0
1,165,569,160
54,013,895
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
80,273,676
2,760,726,250
187,167,813
1.75
1.22
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.2%
19.0%
13.5%
5.8%
13.2%
7.3%
100.0%
71.6%
8.3%
0.9%
19.2%
0.0%
100.0%
108,061,986
3,705,528,775
251,960,875
1.30
1.22
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
44.9%
55.1%
2016
6.671%
40.00
30.03
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
3,201,804,630
12,441,594,150
30,209,567,906
PV @ 8.00%
208,843,993
286,829,573
308,786,589
12.00%
12.48%
12.52%
Page C-66
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 3e – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
No toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 5 ($3.00 AM PM), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
610,060,000
337,063,049
199,140,000
102,783,498
169,667,259
1,418,713,806
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
122,752,657
13,490,465
239,456,900
0
1,209,795,023
208,918,783
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
91,433,257
223,612,250
3,200,164,000
1.75
1.26
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
43.0%
23.8%
14.0%
7.2%
12.0%
100.0%
68.9%
10.1%
1.1%
19.8%
0.0%
100.0%
122,752,657
301,016,750
4,296,343,000
1.30
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
43.6%
56.4%
2015
5.930%
40.00
29.86
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
3,819,286,824
14,928,113,126
36,280,247,125
PV @ 8.00%
249,355,467
342,596,253
368,986,812
Page C-67
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 3e – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
No toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 5 ($3.00 AM PM), Baseline
Scenario:
Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
553,930,000
278,369,757
181,375,000
85,141,286
167,334,126
103,500,000
1,369,650,170
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
109,881,604
11,988,160
246,560,000
0
1,202,524,765
167,125,405
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
92,552,500
3,181,405,625
215,898,438
1.75
1.22
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
40.4%
20.3%
13.2%
6.2%
12.2%
7.6%
100.0%
69.4%
9.1%
1.0%
20.5%
0.0%
100.0%
124,590,333
4,270,691,950
290,636,825
1.30
1.22
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
42.9%
57.1%
2016
6.684%
40.00
29.99
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
3,810,160,917
14,925,821,594
36,280,695,924
PV @ 8.00%
247,463,836
340,670,979
367,060,392
12.00%
12.48%
12.52%
Page C-68
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 4a – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 1 ($0.75 AM PM, $0.25 on MLK
Scenario:
AM PM), Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
189,920,000
64,545,309
5,245,000
1,682,158
118,007,998
379,400,465
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
834,095,000
23,110,199
3,613,925
54,116,200
0
914,935,324
(535,534,859)
% of Total
50.1%
17.0%
1.4%
0.4%
31.1%
100.0%
91.2%
2.5%
0.4%
5.9%
0.0%
100.0%
22,458,579
48,749,825
786,050,275
1.75
1.26
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
23,110,199
50,185,525
808,856,975
1.70
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
55.2%
44.8%
2015
5.751%
40.00
29.83
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
738,447,433
1,663,605,282
3,404,390,143
PV @ 8.00%
59,178,657
68,790,919
70,892,400
Page C-69
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 4a- PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 1 ($0.75 AM PM, $0.25 on MLK
Scenario:
AM PM), Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
174,140,000
53,305,177
4,810,000
1,399,774
118,356,060
28,600,000
380,611,011
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
834,095,000
23,365,495
3,336,550
56,366,800
0
917,163,845
(536,552,834)
% of Total
45.8%
14.0%
1.3%
0.4%
31.1%
7.5%
100.0%
90.9%
2.5%
0.4%
6.1%
0.0%
100.0%
22,823,686
786,889,063
48,903,750
1.75
1.21
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
23,494,691
809,703,238
50,341,700
1.70
1.21
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
54.6%
45.4%
2016
6.502%
40.00
30.06
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
727,900,188
1,642,769,607
3,282,735,258
PV @ 8.00%
59,984,423
69,865,749
71,883,451
12.00%
12.25%
12.27%
Page C-70
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 4b – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 2 ($1.25 AM PM, $0.50 on MLK
Scenario:
AM PM), Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
309,930,000
154,957,724
101,170,000
47,254,645
137,464,814
750,777,183
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
59,037,801
7,133,124
121,651,950
0
1,021,917,874
(271,140,691)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
43,981,069
106,160,400
1,539,337,425
1.75
1.19
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
41.3%
20.6%
13.5%
6.3%
18.3%
100.0%
81.6%
5.8%
0.7%
11.9%
0.0%
100.0%
59,037,801
142,909,100
2,066,323,025
1.30
na
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
46.0%
54.0%
2015
5.915%
40.00
29.84
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,524,084,797
5,551,932,716
13,314,122,653
PV @ 8.00%
88,381,412
124,082,896
133,686,891
Page C-71
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 4b – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 2 ($1.25 AM PM, $0.50 on MLK
Scenario:
AM PM), Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
282,075,000
128,012,268
92,390,000
39,142,448
136,745,708
34,800,000
713,165,425
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
54,161,972
6,416,197
125,566,388
0
1,020,239,556
(307,074,132)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
44,552,353
1,532,409,688
103,233,438
1.75
1.15
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
39.6%
17.9%
13.0%
5.5%
19.2%
4.9%
100.0%
81.8%
5.3%
0.6%
12.3%
0.0%
100.0%
59,975,483
2,056,796,113
138,970,900
1.30
1.15
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
45.3%
54.7%
2016
6.669%
40.00
29.99
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
1,521,345,814
5,549,193,733
13,311,383,670
PV @ 8.00%
87,402,345
123,103,829
132,707,823
12.00%
12.52%
12.56%
Page C-72
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 4c - Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 3 ($1.50 AM PM, $0.75 on MLK
Scenario:
AM PM), Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
425,550,000
218,301,342
138,905,000
66,568,990
144,430,859
993,756,191
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
82,480,439
9,493,253
158,697,750
0
1,084,766,442
(91,010,251)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
61,265,373
148,771,125
2,144,288,050
1.75
1.41
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
42.8%
22.0%
14.0%
6.7%
14.5%
100.0%
76.9%
7.6%
0.9%
14.6%
0.0%
100.0%
82,480,439
200,273,325
2,886,815,350
1.30
1.04
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
45.4%
54.6%
2015
5.919%
40.00
29.86
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
2,338,023,700
8,900,582,803
21,488,822,635
PV @ 8.00%
146,437,250
202,759,048
218,331,997
Page C-73
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 4c – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 3 ($1.50 AM PM, $0.75 on MLK
Scenario:
AM PM), Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
388,155,000
180,409,762
146,850,000
63,764,619
150,385,144
53,000,000
982,564,525
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
77,917,938
8,791,794
180,772,688
0
1,101,577,419
(119,012,894)
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
62,172,270
2,138,116,875
146,035,313
1.75
1.19
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
39.5%
18.4%
14.9%
6.5%
15.3%
5.4%
100.0%
75.7%
7.1%
0.8%
16.4%
0.0%
100.0%
87,041,817
2,983,681,463
204,453,325
1.25
1.19
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
44.7%
55.3%
2016
6.686%
40.00
30.02
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
2,229,792,073
8,792,351,175
21,380,591,008
PV @ 8.00%
129,241,159
185,562,956
201,135,905
12.00%
12.55%
12.59%
Page C-74
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 4d – Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 4 ($2.50 AM PM, $1.00 on MLK
Scenario:
AM PM), Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
488,345,000
332,015,571
159,430,000
101,314,936
153,041,463
1,234,146,970
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
108,110,551
11,811,055
182,123,875
0
1,136,140,481
98,006,489
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
82,159,245
201,695,900
2,875,573,575
1.75
1.41
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
39.6%
26.9%
12.9%
8.2%
12.4%
100.0%
73.4%
9.5%
1.0%
16.0%
0.0%
100.0%
110,607,834
271,519,100
3,871,274,175
1.30
1.04
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
38.8%
61.2%
2015
5.959%
40.00
29.78
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
3,407,658,828
13,309,052,082
32,267,532,247
PV @ 8.00%
211,986,943
295,462,724
318,911,862
Page C-75
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 4d – PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 4 ($2.50 AM PM, $1.00 on MLK
Scenario:
AM PM), Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
443,615,000
274,647,368
167,840,000
97,156,780
159,104,990
75,300,000
1,217,664,137
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
98,325,915
10,832,591
206,604,888
0
1,149,858,394
67,805,744
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
83,341,985
2,861,353,438
195,828,750
1.75
1.17
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
36.4%
22.6%
13.8%
8.0%
13.1%
6.2%
100.0%
72.5%
8.6%
0.9%
18.0%
0.0%
100.0%
116,679,758
3,994,837,713
274,157,338
1.25
1.17
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
38.1%
61.9%
2016
6.729%
40.00
29.89
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
3,250,388,407
13,151,781,662
32,110,261,826
PV @ 8.00%
189,442,500
272,918,282
296,367,419
12.00%
12.54%
12.59%
Page C-76
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 4e- Public Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Finance Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 5 ($3.00 AM PM, $1.25 on MLK
Scenario:
AM PM), Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Total Sources of Funds
552,285,000
388,088,941
180,285,000
118,442,704
159,566,162
1,398,667,807
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
123,910,164
13,391,016
205,963,875
0
1,177,360,056
221,307,751
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
94,789,691
232,974,525
3,317,639,200
1.75
1.42
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
39.5%
27.7%
12.9%
8.5%
11.4%
100.0%
70.8%
10.5%
1.1%
17.5%
0.0%
100.0%
127,611,509
313,624,625
4,466,402,800
1.30
1.05
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
38.1%
61.9%
2015
5.964%
40.00
29.78
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
4,039,902,492
15,893,018,055
38,605,671,792
PV @ 8.00%
252,618,020
351,948,187
380,032,874
Page C-77
Final Report - Appendix C
Toll Financial Feasibility Analysis for Midtown Tunnel Corridor Projects
Case 4e- PPP Financing
Midtown Tunnel Corridor Project
Public Private Partnership Financing
Toll on MLK with Time of Day Tolls; Toll Alternative 5 ($3.00 AM PM, $1.25 on MLK
Scenario:
AM PM), Baseline Estimate of Construction Costs and R&R Expenses
Sources and Uses of Funds
Sources of Funds
Total Senior Current Interest Bonds
Total Senior Capital Appreciation Bonds
Total Subordinate Current Interest Bonds
Total Subordinate Capital Appreciation Bonds
Investment Earnings
Equity Contribution
Total Sources of Funds
501,600,000
321,042,309
189,760,000
113,578,355
166,416,156
89,500,000
1,381,896,819
Uses of Funds
Construction Costs
Debt Service Reserve Fund
Financing Expenses (Underwriter's Discount, Cost of Issuance)
Capitalized Interest
Other Uses of Funds
Total Uses of Funds
Surplus/(Shortfall)
834,095,000
112,598,066
12,259,807
233,602,800
0
1,192,555,673
189,341,146
Financing Results
Average Annual DS (Senior)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Senior)
Total Debt Service (Senior)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Senior)
Initial Year Coverage (Senior) After Cap I
96,167,739
3,301,053,125
226,073,125
1.75
1.18
Average Annual DS (Aggregate)
Maximum Annual Debt Service (Aggregate)
Total Debt Service (Aggregate)
Target Debt Service Coverage (Aggregate)
Initial Year Coverage (Aggregate) After Cap I
% of Total
36.3%
23.2%
13.7%
8.2%
12.0%
6.5%
100.0%
69.9%
9.4%
1.0%
19.6%
0.0%
100.0%
134,635,640
4,608,961,775
316,506,675
1.25
1.18
CIBS %
CABs %
Capitalized Interest Through
True Interest Cost
Final Maturity (Years)
Weighted Average Life (Years)
37.4%
62.6%
2016
6.734%
40.00
29.89
Withdrawal of Surplus Revenues
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
Rates of Return-Pre-Tax
50 Years
75 Years
99 Years
December 2007
Total
3,859,446,989
15,712,562,552
38,425,216,290
PV @ 8.00%
226,544,001
325,874,167
353,958,854
12.00%
12.54%
12.58%
Page C-78