Medical spending in France Institute of Fiscal Studies, 27/03/2015 Pierre-Yves Geoffard Grégoire de Lagasnerie Christelle Gastaldi-Ménager Data extraction: Marjorie Mazars et Sébastien Rivière March 2015 1 Plan The French health care system in a nutshell Basic trends in health care expenditure Data Concentration of medical spending (Where we stand) Persistence of medical spending over time (Where we stand) March 2015 2 The French health care system in a nutshell Source : National Health Accounts 2013 March 2015 3 Supply side Outpatient care : – Fee for services with private practice for physicians – Pay for performance – Freedom of establishment for physicians Inpatient care : – Majority of DRG payment + Global budget for specific missions (teaching, research, emergency care) – Majority of public beds (62% of public beds, 14% of private not for profit beds, 24% of private for profit beds) March 2015 4 Universal health care insurance : a two-tier system mixing public and private insurance • Funding in 2013: Mandatory public insurance Supplementary private insurance Premium dependent on : Age, area of living Tax 28,2Bn€; 15% Incentives in order to avoid medical screening Social Security Contribution 85 Bn€; 47% CSG tax 63,7Bn€; 35% Group complementary health insurance to employees with tax incentives and individual contract • Financing by type of care Mandatory Public insurance and Government Complementary private insurance Out of pocket 77,4% 13,8% 8,8% Inpatient care 91,0% 5,3% 2,4% Outpatient care 62,9% 22,2% 13,0% Drugs 67,5% 14,3% 16,9% Total Medical consumption Source : National Health Accounts 2013 March 2015 5 Illustration of the two-tier system mixing public and private insurance in 2013 for each medical expenditure Social Security Price General case “Chronic Disease expenditures" Mandatory Public Insurance Reimbursement Balance Billing Complementary private insurance reimbursement Social Security Price Out of pocket Balance Billing Mandatory Public Insurance Reimbursement Out of pocket (1) (15% of the population has at least one chronic disease, called ALD) CMU-C The poorest Income<720€/month Social Security Price Mandatory Public Insurance Reimbursement Forbidden Free government insurance - (7,1% of the population in 2013, Source : Fonds CMU) (1) : Complementary private insurance reimbursement March 2015 6 Total current expenditure - 2013 Total current expenditure : 247 billion €, 11,7% GDP (11,6% in 2012 and 11,5% in 2011) Inpatient care 9% 2% Physicians 5% Nursing care, physiotherapist 35% Drugs 8% Others (medical devices + medical transportation) Medical care consumption • 187 Bn€ • 76% of Total current expenditure Long term care 9% Subsistence allowances 14% 13% 5% Preventive care Others Source : National Health Accounts 2013 March 2015 7 Basic trends in health care expenditure Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 8 France spends more on health than most OECD countries Total current expenditure, % gross domestic product 18 16 United States 14 Netherlands 12 France 10 Germany 8 United Kingdom 6 4 Source : OECD Health Data, 2013 March 2015 9 Public spending represents around 77% of healthcare expenditure in France 100% 8.8 8.9 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.0 8.8 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.8 78.2 77.9 77.3 77.4 77.3 77.1 77.2 77.4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Statutory Health Insurance + Government Complementary private insurance Out-of-pocket Source : National Health Accounts, 2013 March 2015 10 Medical care consumption by function of health care 100% 90% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% Others (medical devices + medical transportation...) 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% Nursing care, physiotherapist 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 19% 19% 18% 12% 80% 70% 60% 50% Physicians 40% Drugs 30% 20% 46% 46% 46% 46% 46% 46% 46% 46% Inpatient care (DRG + Global budget payment) 10% Only DRG payments in our data 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source : National Health Accounts, 2013 March 2015 11 Data for micro analysis March 2015 12 Macro-Micro data National accounts data Micro data Private insurance and out of pocket Outpatient care Pharmaceutical Inpatient care DRG payments to hospitals Reimbursement data Total spending in the database used No information private insurance reimbuirsment Reimbursment by the National health insurance funds Psychiatry, rehabilitative care in public hospitals (17%) Global budget (around 10%) Lump-sum payment to nursing home for elderly people Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 13 Collection of data: administrative database, the French public insurance system Universal mandatory insurance through occupation-based funds Fund for employees (General Scheme, since 1945) Independant workers fund Agricultural workers fund 5% 7% Including civil servants and students 84% of the population Source : Sniiram at a glance : http://www.ameli.fr Other small funds (SNCF, RATP,…) 4% Collection of data: Data integration and linkage methods (1/2) Local offices of the sickness funds Nominative local database Claims Agricultural Claims workers Independent Claims workers General scheme + details on beneficiaries and professionals Source : Sniiram at a glance : http://www.ameli.fr Anonymization National data warehouse SNIIRAM Collection of data: Data integration and linkage methods (2/2) Hospital stays in public hospitals Linkage with the national hospital discharge database called PMSI National data warehouse SNIIRAM • Outpatient care • Hospital stays in private hospitals No hospital stays in public hospitals Linkage with the register of deaths Date of death Access to SNIIRAM data is limited to the 3 last years + the current year (i.e. today from 2012 to 2014), but a specific request is possible - if justified - for a deeper access Source : Sniiram at a glance : http://www.ameli.fr 16 SNIIRAM: Summary of data available Main data available • Information about insured people • • • • • • • • • • « Chronic disease expenditures » Long term chronic disease (ICD10) Information about medical consumption • • • • • Reimbursed drugs and biological tests Medical procedures and devices GP and specialists visits Other health care professionals Hospital • Diagnoses (main, associated, related) • ICD10 and Diagnosis-related groups • Ambulatory visits in hospital • High cost drugs and medical devices Source : Sniiram at a glance : http://www.ameli.fr Information about insured people • Age, gender Area of residence Information about chronic disease • • • Data not available • Hospital • • • • Socioeconomic status (income, employment status…) Risk factors (Smoking alcohol use, exercise, diet, family history, Weight, overweight…BMI) Results of laboratory tests… Diagnosis Observance Over the counter drugs Causes of death Exams included in DRG« price » Drugs used during hospital stay except for most costly and necessary drugs (specific list) Long term hospitalizations in public hospitals (psychiatric and rehabilitative care) Supplementary private insurance 17 The sample used : The Echantillon généraliste de bénéficiaires The Echantillon généraliste de bénéficiaires (EGB) • Permanent representative sample of the population protected by French health insurance (1/97th) • For this study, data from 2008 to 2013 The database includes: • Around 500,000 people covered by the National Health Insurance Fund for Salaried Workers (84% of the total population) • All SNIIRAM‘s data for people with healthcare consumption during the year March 2015 18 Representativeness of the Echantillon Généraliste des Bénéficiaires (EGB) by age and gender in 2008 20% 2008 - National Institue of statistics and economic studies 18% 16% 2008 - EGB 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Below 15 years old 15-19 years old 20-24 years old 25-29 years old 30-34 years old 35-39 years old 40-44 years old 45-49 years old 50-54 years old 55-59 years old 60-64 years old 65-69 years old 70-74 years old 75-79 years old 80-84 years old 85-89 years old 90 years old and over Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 19 Definition of the different types of care analyzed in this study Healthcare basket Outpatient care Drugs Inpatient care March 2015 • • • • • • • General practitionner Specialist Dentist Nursing care, psychoterapist… Biological test Medical devices Transportation • All reimbursed drugs • Include most costly and necessary drugs used during hospital stays • Only DRG payments • Medical, surgical and obstetrics in private clinics and public hospitals • Psychiatry and rehabilitative care only in private hospital • Emergency care 20 Section 4 : Basic micro facts on the concentration of medical spending March 2015 21 Database used in the Section 4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 500 758 504 151 522 967 522 313 527 476 533 580 38,9 39,1 38,9 39 39,2 39,4 38 38 38 38 39 39 0 to 24 years old 151 738 (30%) 151 244 (30%) 160 577 (31%) 160 680 (31%) 161 205 (31%) 161 700 (30%) 25 to 64 years old 272 157 (54%) 274 464 (54%) 282 097 (54%) 278 837 (53%) 280 228 (53%) 282 461 (53%) 65 years old and over 76 863 (16%) 78 443 (16%) 80 293 (15%) 82 795 (16%) 86 043 (16%) 89 419 (17%) 258 435 (52%) 260 369 (52%) 270 006 (52%) 270 268 (52%) 273 131 (52%) 276 271 (52%) Total (N) Age Mean Median % Women Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 22 Increasing average health care expenditure by type of care (20082013) Inpatient care Constant € 2008 2,000 $ 1708€ 1805€ 1793€ Outpatient care 1907€ Drugs 1889€ 1905€ 1,800 $ 1,600 $ 387 $ 376 $ 358 $ 347 $ 820 $ 823 $ 827 $ 711 $ 708 $ 731 $ 2011 2012 2013 384 $ 374 $ 1,400 $ 1,200 $ 1,000 $ 804 $ 808 $ 566 $ 614 $ 601 $ 2008 2009 2010 768 $ 800 $ 600 $ 400 $ 200 $ 0$ Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 23 Average health care expenditure adjusted for age effect by gender Constant € 2008 2,100 $ 2,000 $ 1,900 $ 1,800 $ 1,700 $ 1,600 $ 1,500 $ 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Women : Total expenditure Women : Total expenditure adjusted for age effet Men : Total expenditure Men : Total expenditure adjusted for age effet Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 24 Average medical spending by expenditure quintile and gender (65 years old and over) 18,000 $ 16,000 $ Constant € 2008 14,000 $ 12,000 $ quintile 1 10,000 $ quintile 2 quintile 3 8,000 $ quintile 4 6,000 $ quintile 5 4,000 $ 2,000 $ 0$ 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Men 65 years old and over 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Women 65 years old and over Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 25 Medical spending by type of financing, age and “health status” in 2013 0 to 24 yold 100% 385 € 90% 80% 205 € 70% 60% 50% 6,553 € 40% 30% 453 € 20% 10% 0% 0 to 24 years old without chronic disease Statutory health insurance (Public) 0 to 24 years old with chronic disease Private insurance and out of pocket Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 26 Medical spending by type of financing, age and “health status” in 2013 25 to 64 yold 100% 575 € 90% 80% 325 € 70% 60% 50% 5,538 € 40% 30% 455 € 20% 10% 0% 25 to 64 years old without chronic disease Statutory health insurance (Public) 25 to 64 years old with chronic disease Private insurance and out of pocket Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 27 Medical spending by type of financing, age and “health status” in 2013 65 and over 100% 758 € 90% 80% 602 € 70% 60% 50% 6,669 € 40% 30% 1,114 € 20% 10% 0% 65 years old and over without chronic disease Statutory health insurance (Public) 65 years old and over with chronic disease Private insurance and out of pocket Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 28 Inpatient Expenditure by type of financing and “health status” in 2013 0 to 24 100% 23 € 113 € 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 210 € 4,230 € 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 to 24 years old without chronic disease Inpatient care Statutory health insurance (Public) Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 0 to 24 years old with chronic disease Inpatient care Private insurance and out of pocket 29 Inpatient Expenditure by type of financing and “health status” in 2013 25 to 64 100% 31 € 90% 119 € 80% 70% 60% 50% 250 € 40% 2,500 € 30% 20% 10% 0% 25 to 64 years old without chronic disease Inpatient care Statutory health insurance (Public) Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 25 to 64 years old with chronic disease Inpatient care Private insurance and out of pocket 30 Inpatient Expenditure by type of financing and “health status” in 2013 65 and over 100% 86 € 90% 178 € 80% 70% 60% 50% 578 € 40% 3,025 € 30% 20% 10% 0% 65 years old and over without chronic disease Inpatient care Statutory health insurance (Public) Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 65 years old and over with chronic disease Inpatient care Private insurance and out of pocket 31 Outpatient expenditure by type of financing, “health status” in 2013 0 to 24 y old 100% 253 € 90% 80% 162 € 70% 60% 50% 1,557 € 40% 30% 191 € 20% 10% 0% 0 to 24 years old without chronic disease Outpatient care Statutory health insurance (Public) Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 0 to 24 years old with chronic disease Outpatient care Private insurance and out of pocket 32 Outpatient expenditure by type of financing, “health status” in 2013 25 to 64 100% 381 € 90% 80% 311 € 70% 60% 50% 1,601 € 40% 30% 280 € 20% 10% 0% 25 to 64 years old without chronic disease Outpatient care Statutory health insurance (Public) Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 25 to 64 years old with chronic disease Outpatient care Private insurance and out of pocket 33 Outpatient expenditure by type of financing, “health status” in 2013 65 and over 100% 444 € 90% 80% 458 € 70% 60% 50% 2,363 € 40% 30% 447 € 20% 10% 0% 65 years old and over without chronic disease Outpatient care Statutory health insurance (Public) 65 years old and over with chronic disease Outpatient care Private insurance and out of pocket Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 34 Drug expenditure by type of financing, “health status” in 2013 0 to 24 100% 59 € 90% 80% 35 € 70% 60% 50% 649 € 40% 30% 47 € 20% 10% 0% 0 to 24 years old without chronic disease Drugs Statutory health insurance (Public) Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 0 to 24 years old with chronic disease Drugs Private insurance and out of pocket 35 Drug expenditure by type of financing, “health status” in 2013 25 to 64 100% 122 € 90% 80% 65 € 70% 60% 50% 1,369 € 40% 30% 86 € 20% 10% 0% 25 to 64 years old without chronic disease Drugs Statutory health insurance (Public) Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 25 to 64 years old with chronic disease Drugs Private insurance and out of pocket 36 Drug expenditure by type of financing, “health status” in 2013 65 and over 100% 174 € 90% 80% 170 € 70% 60% 50% 1,174 € 40% 30% 239 € 20% 10% 0% 65 years old and over without chronic disease Drugs Statutory health insurance (Public) Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 65 years old and over with chronic disease Drugs Private insurance and out of pocket 37 Average expenditure by age (2008, 2013) 7,000 $ Average expenditure 2008 6,000 $ Average expenditure 2013 5,000 $ 4,000 $ 3,000 $ 2,000 $ 1,000 $ 0$ 0 to 4 years old 5 to 9 years old 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 to 90 90 years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years old and old old old old old old old old old old old old old old old old older Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 38 Average care expenditure by age and type of care (2008, 2013) Inpatient care 2,500 $ 2,000 $ 1,500 $ Inpatient care 2008 1,000 $ 500 $ Inpatient care 2013 0$ Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 39 Average care expenditure by age and type of care (2008, 2013) Outpatient care 2,500 $ 2,000 $ 1,500 $ Outpatient care 2008 1,000 $ 500 $ Outpatient care 2013 0$ Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 40 Average care expenditure by age and type of care (2008, 2013) Drugs 2,500 $ 2,000 $ Pharmaceuticals 2008 1,500 $ 1,000 $ 500 $ Pharmaceuticals 2013 0$ Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 41 Concentration of medical expenditures Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 42 Concentration of medical spending: “big spenders” “Big spenders” : top 10% with highest expenditure. Total medical expenditure : big spenders concentrate 62% of total spending (Lorenz curve) Concentration of spending decreases with age : (Lorenz curve) • • 0 to 24 years old : big spenders concentrate more than 60% of total spending 65 years old and over : big spenders concentrate 51% of total spending Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 43 Concentration of medical spending: “health status”, type of care Concentration of spending increased between 2008 and 2013 : among those with chronic disease, big spenders concentrate (Lorenz curve) • • 2008 : 45% total spending 2013 : 48% of total spending Outpatient care (cost / reimbursement): (Lorenz curve) • • Big spenders concentrate 49% of total outpatient spending Big spenders concentrate 57% of outpatient reimbursement Drugs : (Lorenz curve) • • Big spenders concentrate 58% of total drugs spending Big spenders concentrate 67% of drugs reimbursement Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 44 Section 5 : Persistence • Longitudinal approach of medical spending (6 years) • Correlation and concentration of medical spending over time March 2015 45 Section 5 : Database Cohort follow up from 2008 to 2013 500 758 individuals in 2008 at inclusion (attrition due to death or change of insurance schemes of 66 742 individuals, 13% of the population observed in 2008) 2008-2013 Constant € 2008 2,200 $ Age 38 years old in 2008 2,000 $ 1,800 $ 1,600 $ 0 to 24 years old 25 to 64 years old 65 years old and over % Women 126 779 (30%) 245 648 (57%) 61 589 (14%) 226 520 52% 1,518 $ Average total expenditure 1,862 $ 1,724 $ 1,641 $ 1,956 $ 2,087 $ 1,400 $ 1,200 $ 1,000 $ 800 $ 600 $ 400 $ 200 $ 0$ 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 46 Cumulative distribution of total medical spending 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 2008 0.4 0.3 2008 and 2009 0.2 2008 to 2013 0.1 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 47 Measures of concentration : medical spending over 1, 2 and 6 years Total medical spending 1 year (2008) 2 years (2008-2009) 6 years (2008-2013) Gini coefficient on medical spending 0,71 0,67 0,64 Percentage spent by top 1% of spenders 19,5% 18% 15% Percentage spent by top 10% of spenders 56% 53% 50% Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 48 Correlation coefficients with 2008 health expenditure by year and health status Inpatient care 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Inpatient care ALD 2008 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Inpatient careNON ALD 2008 0.2 0.1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 49 Correlation coefficients with 2008 health expenditure by year and health status Outpatient care 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Outpatient care ALD 2008 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Outpatient care NON ALD 2008 0.2 0.1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 50 Correlation coefficients with 2008 health expenditure by year and health status Drugs 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Pharmaceuticals ALD 2008 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Pharmaceuticals NON ALD 2008 0.2 0.1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 51 Total medical expenditure transition matrices : whole pop, by decile Scale: Decile in 2009 Decile in 2010 Decile in 2013 Decile in 2008 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 52 Total medical expenditure transition matrices : people with chronic disease, by decile Scale: Decile in 2008 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 Decile in 2009 Decile in 2010 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 25 7 7 9 9 10 10 7 7 9 18 19 14 10 8 7 7 5 4 8 10 13 15 14 11 10 8 7 5 8 5 7 13 16 13 12 10 8 7 9 3 4 6 12 18 15 13 10 7 10 2 2 4 6 12 21 18 14 10 11 1 1 2 3 7 14 23 21 14 14 0 1 1 2 3 7 16 29 24 16 0 0 1 1 1 3 7 18 39 29 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 8 21 64 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 17 5 4 4 5 6 8 12 17 22 14 15 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 14 9 11 13 11 9 9 9 9 8 13 5 7 11 13 12 11 10 10 9 13 3 4 6 10 14 15 13 11 9 14 2 3 3 6 11 18 17 14 11 15 1 1 2 3 7 13 21 19 16 16 1 1 1 2 3 7 16 27 22 20 1 0 1 1 2 3 8 20 35 30 1 0 1 1 1 2 4 9 22 58 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 Decile in 2013 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 8 3 3 3 5 7 10 13 17 32 7 8 6 8 8 9 8 9 11 26 5 7 6 7 8 10 10 11 12 24 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 22 3 3 4 7 10 11 12 12 14 24 2 2 3 6 9 12 13 14 15 23 2 1 2 3 6 12 15 17 17 24 1 1 1 2 4 8 15 20 21 26 1 1 1 1 2 5 10 19 28 33 1 1 1 1 2 3 6 11 22 52 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 53 1 YR Transition matrix : total exp, people with chronic disease, by percentile Percentile in 2009 Percentile 2008 0 1 2 0 12 0 0 1 16 0 0 2 0 25 0 3 0 21 0 4 0 0 34 5 0 0 21 6 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 21 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 24 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 28 0 0 0 29 0 0 0 30 0 0 0 31 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 33 0 0 0 34 0 0 0 35 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 38 0 0 0 39 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 41 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 43 0 0 0 44 0 0 0 45 0 0 0 46 0 0 0 47 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 49 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 51 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 53 0 0 0 54 0 0 0 55 0 0 0 56 0 0 0 57 0 0 0 58 0 0 0 59 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 61 0 0 0 62 0 0 0 63 0 0 0 64 0 0 0 65 0 0 0 66 0 0 0 67 0 0 0 68 0 0 0 69 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 71 0 0 0 72 0 0 0 73 0 0 0 74 0 0 0 75 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 77 0 0 0 78 0 0 0 79 0 0 0 80 0 0 0 81 0 0 0 82 0 0 0 83 0 0 0 84 0 0 0 85 0 0 0 86 0 0 0 87 0 0 0 88 0 0 0 89 0 0 0 90 0 0 0 91 0 0 0 92 0 0 0 93 0 0 0 94 0 0 0 95 0 0 0 96 0 0 0 97 0 0 0 98 0 0 0 99 0 0 0 3 4 5 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 8 13 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 10 7 0 0 0 0 24 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 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24 43 11 1 4 17 67 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 56 1 YR Transition matrix : Drug exp, population with chronic disease, by percentile Percentile of drug expenditure 2009 Percentile of drug expenditure 2008 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 46 0 5 6 4 5 3 3 1 43 0 3 4 6 3 3 2 2 11 11 11 12 8 6 6 3 3 0 17 7 13 11 10 9 7 4 0 14 7 10 11 13 9 5 5 0 9 5 12 10 9 7 7 6 0 9 5 7 8 9 11 8 7 0 7 3 6 9 7 9 10 8 0 6 3 5 5 7 8 9 9 0 3 1 5 5 5 4 8 10 0 4 2 2 4 3 4 6 11 0 4 2 3 1 3 4 6 12 0 3 1 2 3 3 3 5 13 0 3 1 3 2 2 2 4 14 0 3 1 1 1 1 3 2 15 0 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 16 0 3 0 1 1 2 2 2 17 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 18 0 0 2 1 1 1 2 1 19 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 20 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 1 21 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 22 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 23 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 24 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 25 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 28 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 29 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 31 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 32 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 0 0 0 0 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1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 5 7 13 18 22 6 2 0 96 97 98 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 5 3 1 0 9 3 1 1 12 4 1 1 26 10 2 2 20 34 11 4 3 21 43 17 1 4 24 64 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 57 To sum-up March 2015 58 Main findings (1/2) : Concentration Concentration of healthcare expenditure • Polarization : Big spenders concentrate 62% of total medical spending • Reimbursement : Big spenders on drugs concentrate 58% of total drugs spending and 67% of drugs reimbursement March 2015 59 Main findings (2/2) : Persistence Persistence of medical spending • Total spending – Significant for people with chronic diseases – Weak for other people • By type of care – Weak for inpatient care spending regardless the health status of the insuree – Stronger for pharmaceutical expenditure March 2015 60 Some issues and questions To go further: • Claims data – Pros: size of the sample, panel dimension, details on healthcare spending, some info on health – Cons: few socieconomic variables • Age /proximity to death : data preparation (linkage) • Concentration / persistence : – detailed analysis of some specific chronic conditions (?) Should we complete our analysis with results from surveys? March 2015 61 Back-up March 2015 62 Lorenz concentration curve of medical expenditure (2008, 2013) 1 Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2008 Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2013 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 63 Lorenz concentration curve of medical expenditure 2013 by age 10% of the population with highest spending : 1 Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2013 (0 to 24 years old) 0.9 Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2013 (25 to 64 years old) Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2013 (65 years old and over) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 • 0 to 24 years old : concentrate more than 60% of total spending • 25 to 64 years old : concentrate 58% of total spending • 65 years old and over : concentrate 51% of total spending 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Cumulative share of people from lowest to highest health spending Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 64 Lorenz concentration curve of medical expenditure (2008- 2013), by health status 1 Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2008 (without chronic disease) 0.9 30% of the population with chronic disease with highest spending : Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2008 (with chronic disease) 0.8 0.7 Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2013 (without chronic disease) 0.6 Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2013 (with chronic disease) 0.5 • 2008 : concentrate 75% total spending • 2013 : concentrate 77% of total spending 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Cumulative share of people from lowest to highest health spending Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 65 Lorenz concentration curve of medical expenditure 2013 by type of care 1 10% of the population with highest inpatient care spending : Cumulative share of inpatient care expenditure 2013 0.9 0.8 Cumulative share of inpatient public reimbursement 2013 0.7 0.6 0.5 • concentrate 53% total hospital spending • concentrate 54% of total inpatient reimbursement 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 66 Lorenz concentration curve of medical expenditure 2013 by type of care 1 0.9 Cumulative share of outpatient care expenditure 2013 0.8 Cumulative share of outpatient public reimbursement 2013 0.7 Cumulative share of drugs expenditure 2013 0.6 10% of the population with highest outpatient (drugs) spending : Cumulative share of drugs public reimbursement 2013 • concentrate 49% (58%) of total outpatient (drugs) spending • 2013 : concentrate 57% (67%) of outpatient (drugs) reimbursement 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 67 Appendix March 2015 68 Total current expenditure per capita, US$ at 2005 PPP rates Total current expenditure/capita, US$ at 2005 PPP rates 8000 7000 6000 United States 5000 Netherlands 4000 Germany 3000 France 2000 United Kingdom 1000 0 Source : OECD Health Data, 2013 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 69 Average health care expenditure adjusted for cohort effect Total expenditure Total expenditure adjusted for cohort effect 2,500 $ 2,000 $ 1,708 $ 1,708 $ 1,907 $ 1,883 $ 1,805 $ 1,790 $ 1,794 $ 1,783 $ 2009 2010 1,890 $ 1,851 $ 1,905 $ 1,853 $ 1,500 $ 1,000 $ 500 $ 0$ 2008 2011 2012 2013 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 70 Health care expenditure by function of care (2008-2013) Inpatient care Outpatient care Drugs 100% 90% 22% 23% 22% 45% 47% 47% 33% 36% 35% 2008 2009 2010 22% 21% 20% 48% 48% 48% 42% 41% 43% 2011 2012 2013 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 71 Expenditure by type of financing, age and gender in 2013 5,000 $ 4,500 $ 4,000 $ 3,500 $ Private insurance and out of pocket 3,000 $ 2,500 $ 2,000 $ 1,500 $ 1,000 $ Statutory health insurance (Public) 500 $ 0$ Males between 0 Males between and 24 years old 25 and 64 years old Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-20092010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 Males 65 years old and over Females Females Females 65 years between 0 and between 25 and old and over 24 years old 64 years old 72 Average medical spending by expenditure quintile and gender (25 to 64 years old) 7,000 $ 6,000 $ 5,000 $ 4,000 $ quintile 1 quintile 2 quintile 3 3,000 $ quintile 4 quintile 5 2,000 $ 1,000 $ 0$ 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Males between 25 and 64 years old 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Females between 25 and 64 years old Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 73 Average medical spending by expenditure quintile and gender (0 to 24 years old) 4,000 $ 3,500 $ 3,000 $ 2,500 $ quintile 1 quintile 2 2,000 $ quintile 3 quintile 4 1,500 $ quintile 5 1,000 $ 500 $ 0$ 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Males between 0 and 24 years old 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Females between 0 and 24 years old Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 74 Average expenditure by age and type of care 2600 2400 2200 2000 Inpatient care 2013 1800 1600 1400 1200 Outpatient care 2013 1000 800 600 Pharmaceuticals 2013 400 200 0 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to years years 14 old old years old 15 to 19 years old 20 to 24 years old 25 to 29 years old 30 to 34 years old 35 to 39 years old 40 to 44 years old 45 to 49 years old 50 to 54 years old 55 to 59 years old 60 to 64 years old 65 to 70 to74 75 to 69 years 79 years old years old old 80 to 84 years old 85 to 90 years old 90 years old and older Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 75 Lorenz concentration curve of medical expenditure (2008- 2013 by age) 1 Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2013 (65 years old and over) 0.9 0.8 Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2008 (65 years old and over) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 76 Lorenz concentration curve of medical expenditure (2008- 2013 by age) 1 Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2013 (25 to 64 years old) 0.9 0.8 Cumulative share of medical expenditure 2008 (25 to 64 years old) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 77 Correlation coefficients for annual health care expenditure by year 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.00000 0.64392 0.49142 0.45244 0.40691 0.36612 1.00000 0.62022 0.53346 0.47664 0.42353 1.00000 0.59517 0.50733 0.44109 1.00000 0.64875 0.53579 1.00000 0.64107 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.00000 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 78 Correlation coefficients for annual inpatient care expenditure by year 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.00000 0.51588 0.33784 0.30271 0.25807 0.21998 1.00000 0.47942 0.38534 0.32889 0.27841 1.00000 0.42901 0.34094 0.28254 1.00000 0.49681 0.37660 1.00000 0.48287 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.00000 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 79 Correlation coefficients for annual outpatient care expenditure by year 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.00000 0.75502 0.62934 0.54559 0.48366 0.43207 1.00000 0.76238 0.65000 0.57083 0.49464 1.00000 0.77718 0.66037 0.55888 1.00000 0.79222 0.64607 1.00000 0.76164 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.00000 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 80 Correlation coefficients for annual pharmaceuticals expenditure by year 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.00000 0.84758 0.71828 0.63907 0.56585 0.49076 1.00000 0.84305 0.72846 0.63368 0.53857 1.00000 0.82559 0.70836 0.59774 1.00000 0.83057 0.67360 1.00000 0.78478 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.00000 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 81 Average health care expenditure by year and age 65 years old and over 2008 2009 2010 25 to 64 years old 2011 2012 2013 0 to 24 years old 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 82 Total medical expenditure, transition matrices 2008-2009 70 60 59.37 58.87 50 40 37.92 36.99 2009 Q1 % 33.15 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 30 23.81 21.12 25.26 22.48 23.69 22.78 21.96 23.11 2009 Q5 20 10.75 10 11.44 5.56 3.18 9.89 9.74 5.28 11.09 2009 Q4 9.92 5.54 2.57 4.51 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2008 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 83 Total medical expenditure, transition matrices 2008-2010 60 54.72 54.29 50 40 35.18 34.2 2010 Q1 % 31.02 30 24.99 22.07 20.41 2010 Q2 25.88 24.09 20.72 24.26 22.06 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 20 2010 Q5 11.82 10 12.28 7.56 5.93 11.54 10.84 6.46 12.95 10.99 6.55 3.47 5.72 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2008 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 84 Total medical expenditure, transition matrices 2008-2013 60 50 49.34 48.57 40 % 31.19 30 27.55 25.63 24.55 20 21.94 20.29 9.25 10 13.73 12.61 8.26 7.9 24.14 20.48 14.05 13.23 2013 Q1 30.49 15.08 25.72 22.67 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q5 13.15 7.81 4.76 7.62 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2008 Source : SNIIRAM/EGB-PMSI, 2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 March 2015 85