Press Release
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www.ifs.org.uk
IFS analysis of the February 2014 public
finance figures
7 Ridgmount Street
London WC1E 7AE
Today the Office for National Statistics and HM Treasury published
Public Sector Finances February 2014. We now have details of central
government receipts, central government spending, public sector net
investment, borrowing and debt for the first eleven months of financial year
2013−14.
Embargo
The figures shown in the table illustrate how receipts and spending in
February 2014, and over the eleven months April 2013 to February 2014,
compare to receipts and spending over the same period in 2012–13. These
are also compared to the growth for the year as a whole forecast by the Office
for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in their March 2014 Economic and Fiscal
Outlook, which was published on Wednesday. The final column of the table
illustrates how much higher/lower spending and receipts in March 2014
would need to be than they were in March 2013 in order for the OBR
forecasts for the year as a whole to prove correct – assuming there are no
revisions to earlier months’ data.
For immediate release
Contact
Rowena Crawford, Carl
Emmerson or Soumaya
Keynes
Institute for Fiscal Studies
020 7291 4800
IFS public finance
bulletins are generously
supported by the
Economic and Social
Research Council.
The analysis is based on IFS
calculations and does not
reflect the views of the
ESRC.
Director:
Paul Johnson
Research Director:
Richard Blundell
The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Limited by Guarantee,
Registered in England: 954616
7 Ridgmount Street
London
WC1E 7AE
Registered Charity: 258815
VAT no: GB 394 5830 17
As the OBR had access to preliminary data on tax receipts in February and
early March, today’s ONS release is not enough to suggest that the OBR’s
forecast for the whole of 2013–14 will be incorrect. However, the data do
appear to suggest that the OBR is expecting lower receipts of income tax,
capital gains tax and NICs in March 2014 than in March 2013, but that other
receipts will grow more strongly in March than they have done over the year
to date.
The apparently high growth in central government spending on public
services in February is at least in part due to a change in timing of grants to
local government from central government. The OBR’s forecasts imply that
this spending will be lower in March 2014 than in March 2013.
Table: Receipts and spending in 2013–14 compared to 2012–13
February
% change on previous year
April to
Full year forecast:
February
Budget 2014
3.5
3.8
Implied
March
6.8
Central government
4.9
current receiptsa
of which:
Accrued income tax,
2.7
3.0
2.5
-2.7
capital gains tax and
NICs
Accrued VAT
5.6
5.2
5.3b
6.3b
Cash Corporation tax
7.3
-0.9
-0.9
-0.7
Central government
7.6
1.8
1.7
0.6
current spending
of which:
Net social benefits
2.5
1.1
1.4
4.9
Debt interest payments
-6.7
-0.6
1.8
44.5
Otherc
11.9
2.5
1.9
-4.4
Public sector net
-10.0
28.0
-6.3
-34.0
investmentd
a Central government current receipts are adjusted for transfers associated
with the Asset Purchase Facility.
b Since the March 2014 Budget the OBR has not published a forecast for
central government accrued VAT receipts. Therefore this number assumes
that the £2.4bn difference between central government accrued VAT and
public sector accrued VAT in the Autumn Statement 2013 forecasts for 2012–
13 and 2013–14 remain.
c Other central government current spending includes spending by Whitehall
departments on the administration and delivery of public services.
d Public sector net investment is adjusted for the effects of the Royal Mail
Pension Fund and the receipts from the sale of 4G spectrum licences.
Further information and contacts
For further information on today’s public finance release please contact:
Rowena Crawford, Carl Emmerson or Soumaya Keynes on 020 7291 4800, or
email rowena_c@ifs.org.uk, carl_emmerson@ifs.org.uk or
soumaya_k@ifs.org.uk.
Next month’s public finances release, which will provide the first estimates of
spending and revenues for the entirety of the 2013–14 financial year, is due to
be published on Wednesday 23rd April.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Limited by Guarantee,
Registered in England: 954616
7 Ridgmount Street
London
WC1E 7AE
Relevant links:
This, and previous editions of this press release, can be downloaded from
http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/browse?type=pf
Office for National Statistics & HM Treasury, Public Sector Finances, February
2013: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/public-sector-finances/march2014/index.html
IFS analysis of Budget 2014 can be found at:
http://www.ifs.org.uk/projects/426
HM Treasury Budget 2014: https://www.gov.uk/government/topicalevents/budget-2014
Office for Budget Responsibility’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2014:
http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2014/
ENDS
Notes to Editors:
1. Central government current spending includes depreciation.
2. Where possible we compare figures on an accruals basis with the Office for
Budget Responsibility forecast.
IFS hosts two ESRC Research Centres.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies
Limited by Guarantee,
Registered in England: 954616
7 Ridgmount Street
London
WC1E 7AE