Public spending pressures
Robert Chote
Carl Emmerson
Christine Frayne
-1
-2
Financial year
10–11
09–10
08–09
07–08
06–07
05–06
04–05
03–04
02–03
01–02
00–01
99–00
8
Level (RH axis)
6
46
5
44
4
42
3
40
2
38
1
36
0
34
32
30
Percentage of national
income
7
98–99
97–98
96–97
Percentage real increase
Total Managed Expenditure (TME)
50
48
Total Managed Expenditure (TME)
7
48
Level (RH axis)
6
46
PBR projection (% of GDP,
RHS)
5
44
Financial year
10–11
09–10
08–09
-2
07–08
-1
06–07
34
05–06
0
04–05
36
03–04
1
02–03
38
01–02
2
00–01
40
99–00
3
98–99
42
97–98
4
96–97
Percentage real increase
50
Real increase (LH axis)
32
30
Percentage of national
income
8
Composition of total managed
expenditure 2004-05
Health
17%
41%
Education
13%
28%
1%
Official Development
Assistance
Social security and tax
credits
Other
What increases might we have?
Total Managed Expenditure
Of which:
Health
Education
Official Development Assistance
Social security & tax credits
'Other'
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Percentage real increase
8
9
10 11
CSR 2007
PBR
(2007-08 to 2010-11)
TME
(real
increase)
TME – (health +
education +
ODA)
TME – (health +
education +
ODA + SS and
TC)
1.8
0.8
–0.1
11 Labour years
(1996-97 to 2007-08)
Labour under Tory plans
(1996-97 to 1998-99)
SR to date
(1998-99 to 2005-06)
Current plans
(2005-06 to 2007-08)
Source: HM Treasury
CSR 2007
TME
(real
increase)
TME – (health +
education +
ODA)
TME – (health +
education +
ODA + SS and
TC)
PBR
(2007-08 to 2010-11)
1.8
0.8
–0.1
11 Labour years
(1996-97 to 2007-08)
3.2
2.3
2.4
Labour under Tory plans
(1996-97 to 1998-99)
SR to date
(1998-99 to 2005-06)
Current plans
(2005-06 to 2007-08)
Source: HM Treasury
CSR 2007
TME
(real
increase)
TME – (health +
education +
ODA)
TME – (health +
education +
ODA + SS and
TC)
PBR
(2007-08 to 2010-11)
1.8
0.8
–0.1
11 Labour years
(1996-97 to 2007-08)
3.2
2.3
2.4
Labour under Tory plans
(1996-97 to 1998-99)
–0.2
–0.7
–0.2
SR to date
(1998-99 to 2005-06)
4.3
3.3
3.1
Current plans
(2005-06 to 2007-08)
3.0
1.9
2.6
Source: HM Treasury
Possible CSR 2007 allocations
TME as
PBR
TME
1.8
TME minus health,
education, ODA
0.8
TME minus health,
education, ODA, social
security and tax credits
–0.1
(1) TME
(2) ‘Other’
constant spending
as % GDP constant
as % GDP
(3) TME
constant
in real
terms
Source: HM Treasury
Possible CSR 2007 allocations
TME as
PBR
(1) TME
(2) ‘Other’
constant spending
as % GDP constant
as % GDP
TME
1.8
2.4
TME minus health,
education, ODA
0.8
1.7
TME minus health,
education, ODA, social
security and tax credits
–0.1
1.3
(3) TME
constant
in real
terms
Source: HM Treasury
Possible CSR 2007 allocations
TME as
PBR
(1) TME
(2) ‘Other’
constant spending
as % GDP constant
as % GDP
TME
1.8
2.4
2.8
TME minus health,
education, ODA
0.8
1.7
2.4
TME minus health,
education, ODA, social
security and tax credits
–0.1
1.3
2.4
(3) TME
constant
in real
terms
Source: HM Treasury
Possible CSR 2007 allocations
TME as
PBR
(1) TME
(2) ‘Other’
constant spending
as % GDP constant
as % GDP
(3) TME
constant
in real
terms
TME
1.8
2.4
2.8
0.0
TME minus health,
education, ODA
0.8
1.7
2.4
–2.0
TME minus health,
education, ODA, social
security and tax credits
–0.1
1.3
2.4
–4.9
Source: HM Treasury
Annual cost of different illustrative
alternative scenarios
TME as
PBR
TME
(1) TME
(2) ‘Other’
constant spending
as % GDP constant
as % GDP
(3) TME
constant
in real
terms
1.8
Spending cut/increase –£8½ bn
over 2007 CSR
(2005–06 terms)
Additional funding
required
(2005–06 terms)
No
change
Source: HM Treasury
Annual cost of different illustrative
alternative scenarios
TME as
PBR
TME
1.8
Spending cut/increase –£8½ bn
over 2007 CSR
(2005–06 terms)
Additional funding
required
(2005–06 terms)
No
change
(1) TME
(2) ‘Other’
constant spending
as % GDP constant
as % GDP
(3) TME
constant
in real
terms
2.4
No
change
+£8½ bn
Source: HM Treasury
Annual cost of different illustrative
alternative scenarios
TME as
PBR
TME
1.8
Spending cut/increase –£8½ bn
over 2007 CSR
(2005–06 terms)
Additional funding
required
(2005–06 terms)
No
change
(1) TME
(2) ‘Other’
constant spending
as % GDP constant
as % GDP
2.4
2.8
No
change
+ £6½ bn
+£8½ bn
+£15 bn
(3) TME
constant
in real
terms
Source: HM Treasury
Annual cost of different illustrative
alternative scenarios
TME as
PBR
TME
1.8
Spending cut/increase –£8½ bn
over 2007 CSR
(2005–06 terms)
Additional funding
required
(2005–06 terms)
No
change
(1) TME
(2) ‘Other’
constant spending
as % GDP constant
as % GDP
(3) TME
constant
in real
terms
2.4
2.8
0.0
No
change
+ £6½ bn
–£35½bn
+£8½ bn
+£15 bn
–£27 bn
Source: HM Treasury
Public spending pressures
Robert Chote
Carl Emmerson
Christine Frayne