Distributional analysis to accompany
Budget 2015
James Browne and William Elming
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
Change in annual net income
Impact of tax and benefit reforms between May
2010 and May 2015 (excluding universal credit)
£500
1%
£0
0%
-£500
-1%
-£1,000
-2%
-£1,500
-3%
Pre-announced, £ per year (left axis)
-£2,000
-4%
Budget measures, £ per year (left axis)
-£2,500
-5%
Total, £ per year (right axis)
-£3,000
-6%
Total as a % of net income (right axis)
-£3,500
-7%
Poorest 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Income Decile Group
Assumes full take-up of means-tested benefits and tax credits.
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
9 Richest
All
Impact of tax and benefit reforms up to May 2015
(excluding universal credit)
1%
Change in annual net income
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
Reforms since May 2010
-6%
Reforms since January 2010
-7%
Poorest 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Income Decile Group
Assumes full take-up of means-tested benefits and tax credits.
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
9 Richest
All
Impact of tax and benefit reforms
May 2010 – May 2015 inclusive
4%
2%
Change in net income
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
Working-age with children
-8%
Working-age without children
-10%
Pensioner households
-12%
-14%
Poorest
2
3
4
5
6
7
Income Decile Group
Assumes full take-up of means-tested benefits and tax credits.
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
8
9
Richest
All
Impact of tax and benefit reforms
May 2010 – May 2015 inclusive
£1,000
Change in annual net income
£0
-£1,000
-£2,000
Working-age with children
-£3,000
Working-age without children
-£4,000
Pensioner households
-£5,000
-£6,000
Poorest 2
3
4
5
6
7
Income Decile Group
Assumes full take-up of means-tested benefits and tax credits.
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
8
9
Richest
All
Impact of tax and benefit reforms
May 2010 – May 2015 inclusive
Single, no work
Single, in work
Lone parent, no work
Lone parent, in work
Couple, no children, no work
Couple with children, no work
Couple, no children, one earner
Couple with children, one earner
Couple, no children, two earners
Couple with children, two earners
Single pensioner
Couple pensioner
Multi-family household, no children
Multi-family household with children
All
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
Change in net income
Assumes full take-up of means-tested benefits and tax credits.
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
0%
2%
Impact of tax and benefit reforms
May 2010 – May 2015 inclusive
Single, no work
Single, in work
Lone parent, no work
Lone parent, in work
Couple, no children, no work
Couple with children, no work
Couple, no children, one earner
Couple with children, one earner
Couple, no children, two earners
Couple with children, two earners
Single pensioner
Couple pensioner
Multi-family household, no children
Multi-family household with children
All
-£2,000
-£1,500 -£1,000
-£500
£0
Change in annual net income
Assumes full take-up of means-tested benefits and tax credits.
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
£500
Impact of tax and benefit reforms
Change in yearly net income
April 2015 - April 2017 inclusive, no Universal Credit
£300
0.6%
£200
0.4%
£100
0.2%
£0
0.0%
-£100
-0.2%
-£200
-0.4%
-£300
-0.6%
Pre-announced, £ per year (left axis)
Budget measures, £ per year (left axis)
Total, £ per year (left axis)
Total as a % of net income (right axis)
-£400
-£500
Poorest 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Income Decile Group
Assumes full take-up of means-tested benefits and tax credits.
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
9 Richest
-0.8%
-1.0%
All
Impact of tax and benefit reforms
April 2015 - April 2017 inclusive, no Universal Credit
Single, no work
Single, in work
Lone parent, no work
Lone parent, in work
Couple, no children, no work
Couple with children, no work
Couple, no children, one earner
Couple with children, one earner
Couple, no children, two earners
Couple with children, two earners
Single pensioner
Couple pensioner
Multi-family household, no children
Multi-family household with children
All
-6%
Budget measures
Pre-announced
Total
-5%
-4%
-3% -2% -1% 0%
Change in net income
Assumes full take-up of means-tested benefits and tax credits.
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
1%
2%
Impact of tax and benefit reforms
April 2015 - April 2017 inclusive, no Universal Credit
Single, no work
Single, in work
Lone parent, no work
Lone parent, in work
Couple, no children, no work
Couple with children, no work
Couple, no children, one earner
Couple with children, one earner
Couple, no children, two earners
Couple with children, two earners
Single pensioner
Couple pensioner
Multi-family household, no children
Multi-family household with children
All
-£800
Budget measures
Pre-announced
Total
-£600
-£400 -£200
£0
£200
Change in annual net income
Assumes full take-up of means-tested benefits and tax credits.
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
£400