Appendix A
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS
TECHNOLOGY SCENARIO MATRIX
niche uses
experimental
development
research
research
MEMS
nanotechnology
implanted ICTs
100 Gbps
277 million
185 million
106 million
9,600
34,700
4,900
2001 Base
Voice recognition
Biometric ID
agents
other artif. intel.
sensors
optical bandwidth
storage
Basic technology
processsors
Demographics & GDP
U.S. population
adult labor force
U.S. households
U.S. GDP (96$bn)
GDP per capita (96$)
Indust output (92$bn)
Scenario
326 million
217 million
128 million
17,000
52,100
8,250
Reference 2021
Moderately high ICT use, balanced control
Moore’s Law (2x every 18 months) continues Moore’s Law slows by 2015 to 2x every 4
to hold
years
Moore’s Law (2x every 18 months) continues Moore’s Law slows by 2015 to 2x every 4
to hold
years
DWDM bandwidth doubles every 1-2 years
bandwidth continues to double every 1-2
years
miniaturized (some MEMS), many
MEMS, some nanotechnology, many
networked
embedded
useful in narrow domains
in general use
restricted to narrow domains
in general use, but doesn’t replace human
judgment
installed on high-end PCs and other devices in general use
used in secure systems and high-value
in general use
transactions
some industrial, medical, national security widely used; some implanted for medical
uses
conditions
in development
growing use in some industrial processes
in development; used with some prosthetics widely used for prosthetics; some for
augmentation
289 million
193 million
111.5 million
11,400
39,400
5,650
2006
Trend extrapolation from 2001
100
Electricity Requirements for a Digital Society
94%
30%
2G (9.6Kbps)
pocket-size
little
little
experimental
75%
<1%
<1%
in R&D
no
70%
52%
35%
9%
<5%
cell/PDA equipment
interoperability
broadband wireless
digital broadcast TV
hh w cable or sat TV
hh w digital TV
hh w interactive TV
all-optical networks
satellite comm apps
fiber to curb/home
Internet
adults using Net
computer in hh
hh on Net
broadband hh (256K)
wireless Net access
2001 Base
Communications
hh with telephone
adults w cell/PDA
wireless systems
cell/PDA equipment
Scenario
90%
80%
70%
30%
35%; mostly low speed (<256K)
802.1b networks in most cities, airports,
hotels
deployment delayed but available in large
markets
80%
8% have digital TV; 60% have DVR/DVD
player
15%
early commercial introduction
TV broadcast; low-orbit voice and data sys
delayed
<5%
wearable devices becoming fashion items
new devices connect to multiple protocols
95%
70%
2.5G deployed (64-128Kbps); 3G delayed
new cell/PDAs have IPv6 addresses
2006
Trend extrapolation from 2001
92%
95%, integrated or embedded
92%
90%
95%, integrated with other technologies
90%; largely integrated with Net
widely deployed
integrated with optical and wireless; remote
sensing
75%
available throughout U.S.; analog TV phased
out
95%; largely integrated with Internet TV
98%; usually integrated with music systems
95%; integrated with Net
90%
4G systems widely deployed (5-20 Mbps)
all devices have IPv6 addresses, software
radios
devices built into clothing, jewelry
devices interoperate with all wireless
protocols
largely integrated with 4G networks
Reference 2021
Moderately high ICT use, balanced control
Information and Communications Technology Scenario Matrix
101
<1%
overlay
100 Gbps
IPv4
100 million
<25 million
in wide use
starting
9% (17 mil)
2.0
large orgs
early XML
primitive
EDI >50%
80%
1% of sales
35%
backbone speed
address technology
networked PCs
other Net devices
General applications
e-mail
interactive games
teleworkers, % (mil)
avg days teleworked
videoconferencing
E-commerce
technology
software agents
B2B
large firms using B2B
B2C
consumers using B2C
2001 Base
broadband wireless
infrastructure
Scenario
integrated with voice and video
communication
in general use
18% (40 million)
2.5
in general use
50%
full integration of telco, cable, wireless,
Internet
>1000 Tbps
100% IPv6 or later version
100-300 million; embedded devices often
replace PCs
4-6 billion or more, excluding home net
devices
Reference 2021
Moderately high ICT use, balanced control
semantic standards spur automated
transactions
assist humans in conducting transactions
conduct most transactions independently
steady growth of SCM, auctions, sales on Net nearly all transactions take place on Net
90%
98%
growth resumes after B2C debacles in 2000-1 generally used, but retail stores still flourish
55%
88%
XML well established
widely used, mostly by males
13% (25 million)
2.1
used by businesses and many high-income
consumers
still the most-used Internet application
300-500 million, driven by wireless services
<10%
some integration of telco, cable, wireless,
Internet
10 Tbps (terabits per second)
20% IPv6, driven by wireless devices
150 million; growth now in non-PC devices
2006
Trend extrapolation from 2001
102
Electricity Requirements for a Digital Society
SSL
moratorium
security
taxation
some smart devices linked to Net
used by ~25%; quality still highly variable
used primarily for physician consults
available for elderly and those with chronic
problems
used primarily for physician consults
diagnostic software
remote monitoring
telemedicine
seamlessly integrated with other Net
offerings
open source and proprietary each have ~50%
share
biometric authentication not perfect but
acceptable
VAT-like tax automatically included in
transactions
direct machine-to-machine transactions
Reference 2021
Moderately high ICT use, balanced control
used routinely to complement face-to-face
visits
MEMS implants for many chronic conditions
used routinely by patients before seeing
physician
used routinely by patients before seeing
physician
used routinely
theaters starting to show electronic (not
essentially all theaters show electronic
film) images
images
various versions installed in theme parks,
realistic but still distinct from real-world
theaters
used by most college students, 30% of adults integrated with on-site classes at all levels
for business, largely outsourced and hosted
on Net
open source increasing for business use
Congress working on unified federal/state
taxation
B2B largely automated; B2C = credit and
debit cards
PKI growth but not yet ubiquitous for B2C
2006
Trend extrapolation from 2001
distance learning
health care
medical devices
information on Net
virtual reality
entertainment
movies
software standards
Sector applications
software
credit card
2001 Base
payment mechanisms
Scenario
Information and Communications Technology Scenario Matrix
103
transportation-ITS
public safety
local services
E-government
gov’t information
taxes
energy mgmt systems
real time pricing
auto meter reading
wireless networks
appliances
Smart homes
broadband networks
transportation
Scenario
2001 Base
increased ITS investment but little payoff to
date
clear trend to put public information online
most tax filing, payments and refunds done
online
some use for obtaining permits, paying fines,
etc.
growth of Netcams for security
>10 Mbps built into 40% of new, 20% of old
homes
generally available; takeup included in above
Net-ready appliances available but not
widely used
built into most new units; 15% of total hh
have it
<10% of homes have EMS based on RTP
>50% of new vehicles have GPS navigation
systems
30% of new cars have embedded anti-theft
IP chips
2006
Trend extrapolation from 2001
most public spaces monitored and shown on
Net; auto theft greatly reduced by
embedded ID chips
widely deployed for traffic control, road
payments
generally done on Net
esssentially all public information online
automated tax payments on daily basis
70% have EMS with RTP; use varies
used for all customers
homes have integrated wireless/wired LANs
all appliances have Net addresses
in 90% of housing units
all post-2012 vehicles have embedded chips
for ID,
location, safety, road payments, “smart
tagging”
Reference 2021
Moderately high ICT use, balanced control
104
Electricity Requirements for a Digital Society
grid + control
trans + distribution
storage
distrib generation
real-time pricing
energy mgmt systems
digital meters
auto meter reading
Electricity applications
power electronics
e-voting
environment
Scenario
<5%
<5%
experimental
2001 Base
Reference 2021
Moderately high ICT use, balanced control
low-cost integrated power electronic chips
developed
installed in most businesses, 20% of homes installed for all energy applications
feasible but utilities lag in implementation to used for all customers
homes
widely available to businesses
available to all customers
new EMS move from dedicated
EMS in general use
communications to Net
safety concerns resolved for DG interconnect feasible to interconnect large numbers of
to grid
small DG units
improved ICT controllers for flywheels,
ICT controls for hydrogen storage
SMES
FACTS devices begin deployment; R&D on
HTS deployed; utilities offer dc power to ICT
HTS
users
Net-based alternatives to SCADA evolve
Net-based alternatives to SCADA in general
use
R&D lowers cost of fast thyristors
Netcams generally on Net for traffic
monitoring
California issues license plates with
all post-2012 vehicles have embedded chips
embedded chip
for ID
growth of networked environmental sensors networked sensors mandated at emission
sites
still experimental
feasible but still not widely used
growth of Netcams for traffic monitoring
2006
Trend extrapolation from 2001
Information and Communications Technology Scenario Matrix
105
many issues still unresolved
many issues still unresolved
Privacy
Intellectual property
“broadband divide” a hot political issue
are proprietary “walled gardens”
fragmenting Net?
will software standards be proprietary or
open?
can Net backbone and ISP markets stay
competitive?
still an issue with ~30% of hh not yet on Net
2006
Trend extrapolation from 2001
Cybercrime
2001 Base
persistent problems of DDoS, malicious
software
most business e-mail encrypted
firewalls installed by 50% of home users
ID theft growing; other kept within
acceptable limits
biometric databases under way for law
enforcement
ICT training no longer offered in prisons
Security
Digital divide
ICT issues
competition
Scenario
biometric databases available for specific
uses
prison capacity reduced by continuous ICT
monitoring
privacy sphere smaller than in 2001, but
accepted
balance achieved; payments automated on
Net
are proprietary “walled gardens”
fragmenting Net?
will software standards be proprietary or
open?
can Net backbone and ISP markets stay
competitive?
residual issue in U.S. (hot in developing
countries)
paying for increased bandwidth an issue for
poor
problems still exist, but controlled; selfhealing Net
nearly all Net traffic encrypted
all users have firewalls or equivalent
(mostly) kept within acceptable limits
Reference 2021
Moderately high ICT use, balanced control
106
Electricity Requirements for a Digital Society
Supporting refs
Comments
Scenario
2001 Base
scenario represents continuation of 20012006 trends, leading to moderately high
ICT use and trust, somewhat more
distributed control, but an overall balance
between centralized and distributed
control
Reference 2021
Moderately high ICT use, balanced control
Computer Science and Telecommunications Computer Science and Telecommunications
Board, 2001a
Board, 2001a
2006
Trend extrapolation from 2001
Information and Communications Technology Scenario Matrix
107
hh with telephone
Communications
other AI
Voice I/O
Biometric ID
MEMS
nanotechnology
implanted ICTs
agents
processsors
storage
optical bandwidth
sensors
Basic technology
GDP per capita (96$)
U.S. households
Demographics & GDP
U.S. population
Scenario
run by vertically integrated
Zaibatsu
98%—Zaibatsu give free basic
accounts
faster ICT innovation and
deployment
Zaibatsu 2021
High ICT use, centralized control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
run by variety of large and small
entities
98%
nanotech “smart dust” for env
monitoring
agents make Net largely selfhealing
faster ICT innovation and
deployment
Cybertopia 2021
High ICT use, distributed control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
95%
run by large, still regulated firms
slower ICT innovation and
deployment
Net Insecurity 2021
Lower ICT use; fairly centralized
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
108
Electricity Requirements for a Digital Society
computer in hh
hh on Net
Internet
adults using Net
fiber to curb/home
cell/PDA equipment
interoperability
broadband wireless
digital broadcast TV
hh w cable or sat TV
hh w digital TV
hh w interactive TV
all-optical networks
satellite comm apps
cell/PDA equipment
98%—Zaibatsu give free basic
accounts
98% —Zaibatsu give free basic
accounts
95%
earth’s “electronic skin”
95%
emphasis on fiber optic over
integrated; emphasis on remote
satellite
sensing
85%—subsidized by gov’t/Zaibatsu 65% —lower densities favor
wireless
50%—has declined from 80% in
2010
80%—mostly using private Nets at
work
60%—no business case for non-Net
users
heavily used for digital TV to home
98%
99%
40%
95%
98%
90%
90% have voice; 40% have data
service
3G available, mostly used by
business
Net Insecurity 2021
Lower ICT use; fairly centralized
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
limited interoperability
mostly used by business
95%
98%
90%
IP devices mostly used by business
95%
Cybertopia 2021
High ICT use, distributed control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
limited interoperability
85%—more expensive than wired
service
Zaibatsu deploy proprietary 4G
systems
proprietary; work best in Zaibatsu
network
adults w cell/PDA
wireless systems
Zaibatsu 2021
High ICT use, centralized control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
Scenario
Information and Communications Technology Scenario Matrix
109
5-10 billion
integrated within Zaibatsu network
other Net devices
General applications
e-mail
E-commerce
technology
teleworkers, % (mil)
avg days teleworked
videoconferencing
interactive games
backbone speed
address technology
networked PCs
infrastructure
mostly Zaibatsu proprietary
works best if all within Zaibatsu
network
14% (30 million); more rely on ITS
2.0
works best if all within Zaibatsu
network
96%
75%—more expensive than wired
service
30%—more expensive than wired
service
Zaibatsu have integrated “walled
gardens”
only within Zaibatsu networks
broadband hh (256K)
wireless Net access
broadband wireless
Zaibatsu 2021
High ICT use, centralized control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
Scenario
28% (60 million)
3.0
even more widely used than in
Reference
15-25 billion, driven by wireless
sensors
wireless preferred, integrated with
others
65%
93%
95%
Cybertopia 2021
High ICT use, distributed control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
designed for secure B2B
transactions
widely used but not secure in
public Net
used by many but games often
hacked
9% (20 million); most in large orgs
2.0
used within secure business Nets
most hidden behind private
firewalls
most hidden behind private
firewalls
integrated to businesses, not to
homes
only within private networks
25%
45%
30%
Net Insecurity 2021
Lower ICT use; fairly centralized
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
110
Electricity Requirements for a Digital Society
mostly Zaibatsu proprietary
software agents
B2B
large firms using B2B
B2C
health care
medical devices
distance learning
virtual reality
software standards
entertainment
movies
Sector applications
software
open systems dominate
98%
more B2C substitution for retail
stores
95%
Cybertopia 2021
High ICT use, distributed control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
on business Nets; on DVD+ for
home users
proprietary software dominates
used within secure private Nets
only within secure private Nets
90%
very low level due to security
concerns
25%
multiple levels of authentication
required
ok within business nets; poor in
public Net
automated for B2B within business
Nets
Net Insecurity 2021
Lower ICT use; fairly centralized
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
available at home via one-way
media, DVD+
large Zaibatsu investment in VR for
in theaters; some packaged VR for
home
homes
heavily marketed by Zaibatsu
very strong use in low density areas most on business Nets; some on
public Net
proprietary software dominates
seamless within Zaibatsu network
99%
incentives to buy within Zaibatsu
group
consumers using B2C 95%
payment mechanisms incentives to buy within Zaibatsu
group
security
high security within Zaibatsu
networks
taxation
national VAT automatically
included
Zaibatsu 2021
High ICT use, centralized control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
Scenario
Information and Communications Technology Scenario Matrix
111
local services
taxes
E-government
gov’t information
energy mgmt systems
auto meter reading
wireless networks
appliances
Smart homes
broadband networks
transportation
telemedicine
diagnostic software
remote monitoring
information on Net
Scenario
outsourced to Zaibatsu and done
on Net
Zaibatsu run EMSs for consumers
in 95%; Zaibatsu subsidized
even greater use of ICTs for work,
entertainment while in ITS mode
Zaibatsu 2021
High ICT use, centralized control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
many business/gov’t/NGO
partnerships
wide market for EMS services
in 95%; mostly wireless
very widely used in low density
areas
Cybertopia 2021
High ICT use, distributed control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
available on public Net but not
trusted
not automated; can be filed on
secure Nets
in decline due to false info sent by
hackers
few on Net since hackers set homes
on fire
50% of homes, mostly via dedicated
links
all EMSs done within residence
90% have networks; few connect to
Net
available on public Net but not
trusted
packaged software used at home
in decline after false data led to
deaths
used only within private medical
Nets
Net Insecurity 2021
Lower ICT use; fairly centralized
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
112
Electricity Requirements for a Digital Society
power electronics
digital meters
auto meter reading
real-time pricing
energy mgmt systems
distrib generation
storage
trans + distribution
grid + control
Electricity applications
e-voting
environment
transportation-ITS
public safety
Scenario
more emphasis on grid than DG
apps
huge investment by Zaibatsu and
gov’t
automated vehicle spacing, road
payments
greater use of embedded ICT
sensor data mostly for Zaibatsu
and gov’t
implemented by Zaibatsu/gov’t
partnerships
Zaibatsu 2021
High ICT use, centralized control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
traffic Webcams no longer on
public Net
public Net Webcams vulnerable to
spoofing
Net Insecurity 2021
Lower ICT use; fairly centralized
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
more emphasis on DG than grid
apps
grid subject to constant hacker
attacks
emphasis on DG and grid security
no longer used due to e-voting
vulnerability
NGOs actively monitor data on Net sensor data only on secure gov Nets
less investment in ITS
Cybertopia 2021
High ICT use, distributed control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
Information and Communications Technology Scenario Matrix
113
higher security within Zaibatsu
networks
harsh laws passed against
cybercrime
more gov/Zaibatsu use of
biometrics
very little privacy, but accepted by
most
Zaibatsu control most intellectual
property
security
cybercrime
privacy
intellectual property
not really an issue in U.S.
proprietary software dominates
Zaibatsu have driven out other ISPs
Zaibatsu limit interconnection
Zaibatsu 2021
High ICT use, centralized control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
digital divide
ICT issues
competition
Scenario
individual largely controls privacy
sphere
Cybertopia 2021
High ICT use, distributed control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
biometric databases incomplete;
spoofable
ICT monitoring of felons not
reliable
those seeking privacy don’t use
public Net
acceptable security within private
Nets
trust in public Net in decline since
2012
gov’t unable to stop non-U.S.
hackers
massive ID theft despite harsh laws
business Nets competitive but
cartelized
proprietary software dominates
public ISPs competitive but not
profitable
gap is between private and public
Net users
Net Insecurity 2021
Lower ICT use; fairly centralized
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
114
Electricity Requirements for a Digital Society
Acronyms
(not otherwise defined
in text)
DDoS
DVR
DWDM
EDI
Gbps
GDP
ID
IPv6
ITS
kbps
distributed denial of service
digital video recorder
dense wave division matrix
electronic data interchange
Gigabits per second
Gross Domestic Product
identification
Internet Protocol version 6
Intelligent Transportation System
kilobits per second
Mbps
PKI
SCADA
SCM
SMES
SSL
Tbps
VAT
XML
2G, 3G, 4G
Megabits per second
Public Key Infrastructure
Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition
supply chain management
superconducting magnetic energy storage
secure socket link
Terabits per second
Value-Added Tax
Extensible Markup Language
2nd, 3rd, 4th generation
“Snowdrops” scenario in
Botterman et al., 2001
Lessig, 1999; Air University, 1995
Supporting refs
Glenn and Gordon, 2000
scenario emphasizes growth in
scenario emphasizes growth in
scenario emphasizes loss of public
cities and suburbs, wired over
lower density areas, wireless over
trust in ICT networks due to
wireless infrastructure, ITS
wired infrastructure, more
unresolved security concerns.
instead of telework, smart tags on telework and B2C, very wide use
Secure, private Nets serve large
physical goods, large ICT
of untethered sensors, ICT
organizations, but only 50% of hh
investments by Zaibatsu/gov’t
investments by
connect to public Net. Heavy use
partnerships, active federal
business/NGO/gov’t
of one-way media and standregulation, less state or local role
partnerships
alone ICT devices
Net Insecurity 2021
Lower ICT use; fairly centralized
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
Comments
Cybertopia 2021
High ICT use, distributed control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
Zaibatsu 2021
High ICT use, centralized control
all entries as in Reference, unless
noted
Scenario
Information and Communications Technology Scenario Matrix
115