1124 Correlated responses of height increment and components of increment in 2-year-old 1 Douglas-fir ZEKI KAYA 2 Department of Forest Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, U.S.A. R. K. CAMPBELL Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Corvallis, OR 97331, U.S.A. AND w. T. ADAMS 3 Department of Forest Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, U.S.A. Received March 29, 1989 Accepted May 5, 1989 KAYA, Z., CAMPBELL, R. K., and ADAMS, W.T. 1989. Correlated responses of height increment and components of increment in 2-year-old Douglas-fir. Can. J. For. Res. 19: 1124-1130. The consequences for growth and phenology of early selection for height or its growth components were evaluated in 160 open-pollinated families of Douglas-fir (Mirb.) Franco) from southwestern Oregon. Seed­ lings from two inland and two coastal populations (40 families each) were grown for two growing seasons in a common garden. Predicted response to selection suggests that risk of low juvenile-mature correlation and maladaptation with early selection would be less in the inland than in the coastal region. A phenological event that influences a common growth pattern seems to account for the difference in response. Early bud set in the 1st year was genetically correlated with larger overwintering buds in seedlings from both inland and coastal regions. These larger buds yielded a large increment of predetermined growth in the 2nd year, followed by little or no free growth and early bud set. Seedlings with late bud set in the 1st year had the converse pattern. Inland seedlings set buds much earlier on the average than did coastal seedlings; hence seedlings from the two regions had different growth patterns. Risks that can attend early selection for height generally would be decreased in both regions by selecting for predetermined growth, but several qualifications are discussed. (Pseudotsuga menziesii KAYA, Z., CAMPBELL, R. K., et ADAMS, W.T. 1989. Correlated responses of height increment and components of increment in 2-year-old Douglas-fir. Can. J. For. Res. 19: 1124-1130. Les consequences d'une selection precoce, effectuee au niveau de Ia hauteur ou de ses composantes, sur Ia croissance et Ia phenologie du Douglas taxifolie (Mirb.) Franco) du sud-ouest de !'Oregon ont ete evaluees. Les semis de deux populations de l'interieur et de deux populations cotieres (40 families chacune) furent cultives pen­ dant deux saisons de croissance dans le meme jardin. La reponse escomptee de Ia selection suggere que le risque inhe­ rent d'une faible correlation juvenile-adulte et d'une mesadaptation resultante de Ia selection precoce serait moindre a l'interieur qu'en region cotiere. II semble qu'un evenement phenologique influencant un patron de croissance commun re soit responsable de Ia difference de reponse a Ia selection observee. L'aoiitement precoce de Ia 1 annee etait geneti­ quement correle avec Ia formation de gros bourgeons d'hivernage chez les semis de l'interieur de meme que chez ceux de Ia region cotiere. Ces gros bourgeons resulterent en une forte augmentation de Ia croissance predeterminee de Ia 2e annee, suivie ou non d'une faible croissance non-predeterminee et d'un aoiitement hiitif. Les semis a aoiitement re tardif Ia 1 annee eurent un patron phenologique reciproque. En general, les semis de l'interieur ont forme leurs bourgeons beaucoup plus tOt que ne le firent les semis de Ia region cotiere; les semis des deux regions avaient done des patrons de croissance differents. Les risques inherents a une selection precoce en egard a Ia hauteur seraient moindres dans chacune des regions si celle-ci etait pratiquee au niveau de Ia croissance predeterminee; plusieurs conditions sont toutefois requises et sont discutees. [Traduit par Ia revue] (Pseudotsuga menziesii Introduction Early culling of individuals or families in tree-breeding programs is often based on height increment alone. The rela­ tionship of early growth with later growth potential and adaptability, however, has not been thoroughly explored. Part of the difficulty of early testing is that patterns of juvenile stem growth in conifers may differ from those in mature trees (Cannell et a/. 1976). Annual shoot extension can be separated into two com­ ponents: predetermined growth and free growth (Cannell 1Paper No. 2358, Forest Research Laboratory, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR. 2Present address: Department of Biology, Middle East Technical University, 06531, Ankara, Turkey. 3 Author to whom all correspondence should be addressed. Printed in Canada I lmprimC au Canada 1978). Predetermined growth (PG) results from expansion of the primordial shoot contained in an overwintered bud, whereas free growth (FG) results from expansion of primor­ dia initiated in the same growing season. Free growth may follow predetermined growth without interruption (termed continuous growth (CG) in this paper) or may occur as a result of multiple flushing (lammas growth, LG). Free growth may contribute substantially to height incre­ ment in young trees, but becomes increasingly less of a factor in the growth of older trees; the extent of its role in juvenile growth and the age at which it no longer is a significant fac­ tor varies with species and geographical source within species (Pollard and Logan 1976; Cannell and Johnstone 1978). In a study of shoot-growth patterns in trees from Rocky Mountain provenances growing in southern Michigan, KAYA ET AL. Bongarten (1978) found that 8-year-old spruce (Picea pungens Engelm.) no longer produced FG; in contrast, up to 20o/o of the height increment in 15-year-old Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) was derived from FG, although this percentage varied among provenances. If FG is the primary criterion of height superiority in young trees, early selection may not identify individuals with superior PG unless the genetic relationship between potential for FG and PG is strong. Thus, one risk of early testing is that genotypes with greatest growth potential beyond the juvenile stage may not be identified. A second problem occurs if height extension is genetically correlated with the length of the vegetative growth period, as it appears to be in Douglas-fir (Rehfeldt 1983; Campbell 1986). In this case, early selection may choose families with longer growth periods, increasing the risk of damage by early or late frost (Rehfeldt 1979, 1983). One goal of selection might be to obtain the largest increase in height increment with the least change in vegetative growth period. Different degrees of genetic correlation may exist among phenological traits and height and its components. Thus, by selecting for com­ ponents of height, appreciable gains in height increment might be achieved with little indirect change in phenology. A first step in evaluating the implications of early selection might be to examine the genetic relationships among height growth, its components, and phenological traits in a single annual increment. In this paper we report on these relation­ ships in the 2nd-year height increment (HI) of coastal Douglas-fir (P. menziesii var. menziesil) families from populations in southwest Oregon. We also examine the effects of selection for HI on the components of increment and growth period by estimating their correlated responses to selection. Predicted changes in sizes of growth com­ ponents or growth period when selection is based on an increment will reflect the relative degrees of genetic deter­ mination of components, as well as the genetic correlations among components and total increment. Finally, because separating PG and FG would be extremely labor intensive on any kind of operational scale, we examined the relation­ ship between PG and apical bud size. In some species, the number of needle primordia produced in the overwintering bud and, therefore, the size of the bud, are correlated with the amount of predetermined growth in the following year (Clements 1970; Cannell 1974; Cannell and Willett 1975; Cannell et al. 1976). Variation among populations in the occurrence of multiple flushing has been reported in coastal Douglas-fir (Campbe11 1986; Loopstra and Adams 1989). In southwest Oregon, a large difference was discovered between a region (coastal) west of the Cascade Ranges and a region (inland) between the coastal and Cascade Ranges (Loopstra and Adams 1989). Thus, for this study, we sampled and com­ pared populations from the coastal and inland regions. Materials and methods The experimental procedure involved four steps: (i) sampling 1125 step in more detail because of its particular relevance to this paper. Sampling procedures Two populations were sampled from both the coastal and inland regions in southwest Oregon. All four populations occurred within 42°N latitude, but the coastal populations were only 16 km from the Pacific coast, whereas the inland populations were 66 and 166 km, respectively. One population within each region was from a low elevation (coastal, 152-457 m; inland, 305-762 m) and one from a high elevation (coastal, 457-762 m; inland, 1067-1372 m). On average, the summer season precipitation in the coastal popula­ tions (34 em) was nearly twice that in the inland population (18 em). Seeds were obtained from 40 parent trees in each population, with Jots identified by parent. Experimental methods Open-pollinated offspring of parent trees (families) were planted as newly germinated seeds in two nursery environments: a regularly watered "moist" environment, and a "dry" environment, where water was withheld for approximately 4 weeks in the first growing season and 8 weeks in the second. In each environment, five­ seedling row plots of 160 families (4 populations X 40 families per population) were randomly allocated to plot location in a complete block design with three replicates (15 seedlings per family in each environment). Ten traits expressing timing of the vegetative cycle, total height increment, and components of height increment were measured (Table 1). Family means for each trait were estimated from the surviving trees in the family ( n 28.4). To distinguish PG from FG in the 2nd year, we marked shoot tips of seedlings with a black felt pen 3 weeks after bud burst (Wiihlisch 1982). By 3 weeks, all needle primordia of the over­ wintering bud apparently had expanded; the mark remained on needles for the growing season, and, in seedlings with LG, the top of the mark always corresponded to the location on the shoot of the temporary scales of the lammas bud. In other words, the ink marked the last of the needles formed as primordia in the over­ wintering bud. It did not mark the first of the bud scales formed as primordia in the lammas bud. Shoot growth from the bud scale scar of the overwintering bud to the pen mark therefore was PG; growth from the mark to the base of the final terminal bud was FG. Free growth apparently was produced either by LG or by CG, but not by both. Thus, seedlings with multiple flushing produced FG only by LG. The growth occurring beyond the mark, but not from an expanding lammas bud, was CG. Continuous growth as defined in this study is equivalent to the "free growth" of Bongarten (1978). We believe, as did Bongarten, that CG results from expansion of primQrdia formed during spring growth from the overwintering bud. A microscopic examination to test this hypothesis was beyond the scope of the experiment. The error in determining PG by the marking procedure probably was not large. The certainty that we correctly measured PG was greater in the inland populations than in the coastal populations. Lammas growth made up a large proportion of FG in the inland populations (see Results), and the presence of LG exactly defines PG. In coastal populations, CG made up a large proportion of FG, so PG had to be determined by the marking procedure. The correlation between PG and size of the overwintering bud, however, was equally strong in the two regions. Strong and consistent correlations would be unlikely if PG had been poorly measured. Statistical analysis Knowledge of genetic correlation and heritabilities is required the two regions; (ii) estimating genetic variation in the relevant seedling traits by growing open-pollinated families in common to evaluate the effect of selection for one trait on another trait. Genetic correlations measure the extent to which two traits are controlled by the same genes, whereas phenotypic correlations result gardens; (iii) estimating genetic and phenotypic correlations among seedling traits; and (iv) estimating correlated responses in com­ from the influence of both environmental and genetic causes of association. Genetic correlations are estimated from components ponents of HI and phenology when total increment was selected. The first three steps are sketched briefly in a following section; of genetic variance and covariance (Falconer 1981) substituted into the standard equation for the product-moment correlation coef­ ficient. Heritabilities are estimated from components of variance. Kaya (1987) provides a thorough treatment. We describe the final CAN. J. FOR. RES. VOL. 1126 19, !989 TABLE I. Description of traits BSET-1 BUDD BUDH BBUR PO LG co FG HI BSET-2 Trait Units Date of bud set in first growing season; recorded weekly Diameter of terminal buds in February; measured with an engineering template Height of terminal buds in February Date of bud burst in second growing season; recorded twice weekly Predetermined shoot growth in second growing season Lammas growth in second growing season Continuous growth in second growing season Free growth (LG or CO) in second growing season Height increment in second growing season (PO + FG) Date of bud set in second growing season, recorded weekly Days after Jan. 1 Classes (1-10) mm Days after Jan. I mm mm mm mm mm Days after Jan. I "Number refers to first (!) or second (2) growing season. Large standard errors, therefore, usually are associated with the estimates of genetic correlation and heritability. The size of the error depends on the number of genetic entries (open-pollinated families in this case) and on the number of individuals within families (Becker I984). Preliminary analyses of our data indicated that standard errors were too large for our purpose if based on the families within one population; populations within regions could not be compared with confidence because type II error was large. Sums of squares for families within the two populations in a region therefore were pooled. In addition, since family x environment interactions were generally small or lacking (Kaya 1987), 4 data from the two envi­ ronments were treated as replicates by pooling the effects of replicates within environments. Standard errors of genetic parameter estimates were substantially reduced by pooling of envi­ ronments and families within populations. The two regions were analyzed separately by the model f( p); eifk Zijk = P- + r(th + Pi + + [1] is the mean performance where fL is the experimental mean, in the kth replica­ of the ith family (j(p)) in thejth population and is the experimental error. tion within environment Estimates of components of variance and covariance were obtained by equating mean squares (and cross products) to their expectations and solving equations. Family heritabilities were estimated according to Namkoong (1979) and their standard errors as described by Becker (1984). Genetic correlations were calculated according to Falconer (1981). Phenotypic correlations, on a family mean basis, were estimated as in Foster (1984). Standard errors of both genetic and phenotypic correlations were computed according to Becker (1984). Z;Jk (r(t)), eijk (p) et a!. Estimation of correlated response Correlated response (CR) after selection quantifies the expected effect of selection for a trait (y) in one generation on the perfor­ in the next generation (Falconer 1981). mance of another trait It is calculated as (x) [2] CRx = i i ..J7i'f: .J/iJ, Rgxy IJp x h; h; where is the selection intensity, and are the heritabilities of traits and y, respectively, Rgxy is the genetic correlation x he family within populations X environment interaction was significant < 0.05) in only 2 of the 10 traits: BBUR and BUDH. In both of these cases, the family within populations variance was at least 1. 6 times greater than the estimated interaction variance. (P between the traits, and apx is the phenotypic standard deviation of trait x. Direct response, on the other hand, is the expected effect of selection for a trait in one generation on the average performance of the same trait in the next generation. It is calculated as (x) [3] Rx = (x) ih; IJpx The consequence (C) of selection for one trait on the performance of a second trait can be calculated as a ratio of correlated to direct response. The ratio is the expected genetic gain (CRx) in the trait of interest that is obtained by selecting for another trait (y), divided by the expected gain (Rx) when selection is done directly on trait Consequence measures the change in performance after indirect selection as a proportion of the change expected given direct selection at the same intensity. In this paper, we will only be is calculated as concerned with selection among families, so (x) x. C where traits. h; and h; are the family heritabilities for their respective Results Genetic variation All traits varied genetically (P < 0.05) among regions (Kaya 1987} and, with the exception of CG in the inland region, also varied among families within regions (Table 2). Seedlings from inland populations set their final buds approximately 27 days earlier than seedlings from coastal populations in both growing seasons (Table 3). In the second season, seedlings from inland populations burst bud only 1 day earlier, on average, than seedlings from coastal populations. Estimated family heritabilities of phenology traits (bud set in the 1st and 2nd year, BSET-1 and BSET-2, and bud burst, BBUR) were always somewhat lower in the inland than in the coastal region (Table 3). In inland seedlings, bud height (BUDH) and bud diameter (BUDD) were about twice those of coastal seedlings (Table 3). As with the phenology traits, family heritabilities for bud size were moderate and somewhat lower in the inland region (Table 3). The HI of inland families was about 180Jo smaller than that of coastal families (Table 3). In inland seedlings, FG made up 23% of HI and LG made up 66% of FG. In coastal seedlings, FG made up 39% of HI, with LG and CG contributing about equally to FG. Except for KAYA ET AL. 1127 TABLE 2. Analyses of variance, degrees of freedom (df), and mean squares for height growth and phenology traits in inland and coastal regions Sources of variance Environment Replications within environments Populations Families within populations Error Inland region BSET-1 BUDD BUDH BBUR PG LG CG FG HI BSET-2 df0 9 555.0 17.3 12.8 2 295.9 20 990.7 6 414.8 246.4 4 146.9 6 478.2 8 703.2 1 6.7 83.0 437.2 983.0 266.1 149.6 548.1 558.6 4 BSET-1 BUDD BUDH BBUR PG LG CG FG HI BSET-2 dfa 6 463.1 3 273.2 3.7 4.1 2 999.4 3.5 18.4 6 477.8 1.2 11 3 6 33 2 12 093.2** 1.1 18.9** 701.0** 8 803.8** 8 618.8** 467.1* 13 098.7** 43 379.9** 13 575.9 l 254.8* 0.7** 1.6** 18.9** 789.6** 191.5** 95.2 225.8** 1252.2** 378.22** 142.1 0.3 0.9 6.5 421.4 117.4 96.5 126.9 679.3 214.3 392 78 Coastal region 26 844.1 5 123.3 1 061.6 1 520.6 15 587.1 5 733.3 1 84.4 14 531.2 765.6 9 956.2 12 267.0 50 709.5 1 336.1 4 12 299.0** 16.7** 73.4** 1.2 17 710.4** 42.8 7 629.9** 8 816.0** 1 535.6 28 182.4** 1 392.8** 0.5** 2.1** 22.0** 572.3** 399.8* 755.0** 750.5** 1396.4* 583.6** 74 137.2 0.2 0.8 6.4 384.6 289.3 392.3 343.6 965.5 256.3 375 NoTE: All analyses were carried out on plot means. See Table I for description of traits. "Missing plots caused by mortality resulted in reduced error df for both regions and a loss of for families within populations in the coastal region. •p < 0.05. ••p < 0.01. CO, family heritabilities for components of HI were similar for seedlings from the two regions (Table 3). Inland families did not differ significantly in CO (Table 2), perhaps because very little CO was expressed in inland families in this experi­ ment (Table 3). Correlations among traits Genetic and phenotypic correlations were estimated separately for inland and coastal regions (Tables 4-6). Genetic correlations consistently were larger than phenotypic correlations, but also had larger standard errors. Coeffi­ cients for genetic and phenotypic correlations were closely correlated; only genetic correlations will be discussed further. Since BUDD and BUDH were strongly correlated in inland and coastal regions (Table 4), discussion will be limited to BUDD. Seedlings with large overwintering buds in the 1st year generally produced more PO in the 2nd year. Strong positive genetic correlations between BUDD and PO occurred in seedlings from inland and coastal regions (Table 4). In inland families, BUDD in the 1st year was not correlated with the amount of FG in the next year, but coastal families with large buds in the 1st year had less FG {and less LG and CO) in the 2nd year. Early BSET-1 was associated with larger BUDD in both inland and coastal regions. The correlation was stronger in 4 df coastal than in inland seedlings (Table 5). Families with early BSET-1 also had more PO in the 2nd year; the correlation was again stronger in coastal than in inland families. Families with later BSET-1 produced more FG in the 2nd year. Timing of BBUR g-enerally was poorly correlated with components of HI in the second growing season (Table 5). In inland seedlings, however, more LG occurred in seed­ lings with early BBUR. In seedlings of both regions, the relative amounts of PO and FG strongly influenced BSET-2. Families with more PO set final buds earlier. The correlation was slightly stronger in coastal than in inland seedlings. Delayed bud set provides more time for free growth. Thus, genetic correlations between BSET-2 and FG were strongly positive in inland and coastal regions (Table 5). In inland seedlings, this strong association can be attributed mainly to LG, because LG and BSET-2 were strongly correlated, whereas correlation between CO and BSET-2 was weak or lacking. In coastal seedlings, the strong relationship depends on CO, because CO and BSET-2 were strongly correlated but LG and BSET-2 were not. Correlations between total HI and its components depended on the population. In seedlings from inland populations, HI was more strongly correlated with PO than with FG (Table 6). In those from coastal populations, HI was more strongly correlated with FG than with PO. 1128 CAN. J. FOR. RES. VOL. 19, 1989 2 TABLE 3. Estimated means (X) and family heritabilities (h ) of apical bud size, vegetative growth period, and 2nd-year height growth components in seedlings from inland and coastal regions Inland x BSET-1 (days) BUDD (classes) BUDH (mm) BBUR (days) PO (mm) LO (mm) CO (mm) FO (mm) HI (mm) BSET-2 (days) 271.59 1.96 4.11 105.47 80.31 15.93 8.38 24.31 104.61 177.67 Coastal h2 0.44 0.50 0.44 0.66 0.47 0.39 x (0.16) (0.16) (0.16) (0.15) (0.16) (0.16) Ll6 2.36 106.23 74.85 22.40 0.44 (0.16) 0.46 (0.16) 0.43 (0.16) 24.64 47.04 121.88 205.47 298.82 Both h2 0.65 (0.16) 0.58 (0.17) 0.60 0.71 0.33 0.28 0.48 0.54 0.31 0.56 (0.16) (0.16) (0.17) (0.17) (0.16) (0.16) (0.17) (0.16) x 285.20 1.56 3.23 105.85 77.74 19.15 16.51 35.34 113.28 191.36 NoTE: See Table I for description of traits. BSET-1, BBUR, and BSET-2 are expressed as days after January 1 and BUDD as classes measured with an engineering template. Standard error of heritability is in parentheses. -, variance among families within populations was not significant. TABLE 4. Estimates of genetic (Rg) and phenotypic (Rp) correlations (SE in parentheses) between apical bud size (BUDD) and height growth components in the 2nd year BUDD Inland Coastal BUDH Rg Rp PO Rg Rp LO Rg Rp co Rg Rp 0.93 (0.07) 0.81 (0.02) 1.02 (0.03) 0.92 (0.01) 0.81 (0.12) 0.66 (0.04) 0.78 (0.18) 0.55 (0.05) 0.01 (0.26) 0.03 (0.06) 0.23 (0.30) -0.06 (0.06) -0.08 (0.07) -0.34 (0.06) -0.61 (0.17) 0.38 (0.05) -0.52 (0.19) FO Rg 0.01 (0.25) Rp HI 0.08 (0.06) Rg Rp 0.66 (0.17) 0.49 (0.05) -0.08 (0.28) 0.07 (0.06) NOTE: See Table l for description of traits. variance among families was not significant. Growth consequences of selecting for height increment Predicted effects of selection for HI on components of increment differed in populations from the two regions (Table 7). In inland seedlings, selection for HI indirectly provided an expected genetic gain in PG that was 91 OJo of the gain expected by direct selection (Table 7). Indirect gain in FG would be about two-thirds as large as for PG. All gain in FG is from an expected change in LG; inland families did not vary significantly in CG. Selection for HI in coastal families yielded a predicted indirect gain in PG only 360Jo of that expected from direct selection. Predicted indirect gain in FG was almost 60% larger than in PG. Most of the gain in FG would come from a response in CG, because the change in LG would be expected to be small. Phenological consequences of selecting for height Selecting directly for HI in inland families produced more predicted gain in HI than did indirect selection based on either PG or FG (Table 7). Phenology of inland seedlings would be altered only slightly. Matings among such selec­ tions would yield progeny with slightly earlier BSET-1 (Table 7) and earlier BBUR; BSET-2 would not be affected. Selecting for PG instead of HI should produce about 93% as much gain in HI as would be obtained by direct selec­ tion. BBUR would hardly be affected, but BSET-1 and BSET-2 would be earlier. Selecting for FG, on the other hand, would produce only about 63% as much gain in HI as would direct selection. BBUR would be earlier and BSET later, especially in the 2nd year. Direct selection for HI among coastal families would pro­ duce progeny with earlier BBUR and later BSET. As well as being inefficient for increasing HI, selecting for predeter­ mined growth would produce offspring with earlier BBUR, BSET-1 and BSET-2. Selection for FG, an efficient way to improve HI, shoul<:J. produce progeny with no change in BBUR but with later BSET-1 and BSET-2. Discussion The main purpose of this study was to evaluate whether early selection for height in Douglas-fir of western Oregon and Washington might lead to later problems. Two kinds of risk are involved: (i) early selection for height will not select genotypes for taller trees at later ages (type 1); and (ii) selection for height will adversely change the vegetative growing period (type 2). The extent of risk may depend partly on a height growth pattern that is qualitatively common among all seedlings but differs between regions in timing. In both regions, seedlings with early BSET-1 produced larger overwintering buds. These larger buds expanded in the second season to yield a large increment of PG, followed by little or no FG and early BSET-2. Seedlings with late BSET-1, in contrast, had small buds, small amounts of PG, larger amounts of FG, and late BSET-2. Earlier average BSET in inland seedlings accounted for the difference between regions. This variation among regions in growth pattern is not unique to the coastal KAYA ET AL. 1129 TABLE 5. Estimates of genetic (Rg) and phenotypic (Rp) correlations (SE in parentheses) between height growth components and phenological traits in inland and coastal regions Inland BSET-1 BUDD Rg Rp PG Rg Rp Coastal BSET-2 BSET-1 BBUR BSET-2 -0.53 (0.19) -0.41 (0.05) -0.97 (0.05) 0.83 (0.02) 0.21 (0.18) -0.13 (0.06) -0.84 (0.12) -0.60 (0.04) 0.43 (0.24) -0.22 (0.06) -0.56 (0.20) -0.42 (0.05) -0.33 (0.23) 0.23 (0.06) 0.67 (0.22) 0.16 (0.29) BBUR -0.45 (0.19) 0.07 (0.19) -0.46 (0.05) O.o7 (0.06) -0.29 (0.24) 0.18 (0.06) -0.05 (0.20) -0.18 (0.28) -0.47 (0.20) 0.05 (0.06) -0.32 (0.06) 0.80 (0.14) 0.65 (0.04) 0.12 (0.28) 0.02 (0.06) 0.14 (0.27) 0.02 (0.07) 0.86 (0.17) 0.13 (0.06) 0.11 (0.07) 0.71 (0.15) 0.47 (0.05) -0.07 (0.20) 0.34 (0.06) -0.05 (0.06) 0.48 (0.05) 0.19 (0.25) 0.17 (0.06) 0.26 (0.20) -0.21 (0.06) 0.83 (0.13) 0.67 (0.04) 0.73 (0.14) 0.48 (0.05) 0.01 (0.19) -0.03 (0.06) 0.89 (0.09) 0.73 (0.04) -0.002 (0.26) 0.11 (0.06) 0.35 (0.27) 0.21 (0.24) 0.09 (0.06) -0.17 (0.06) 0.08 (0.06) 0.43 (0.05) LG Rg Rp CG Rg Rp FG Rg Rp HI Rg -0.16 (0.26) -0.15 (0.20) Rp -0.07 (0.06) -0.16 (0.06) 0.34 (0.06) 0.42 (0.26) 0.26 (0.06) NoTE: See Table 1 for description of traits. -, variance among families was not significant. TABLE 6. Estimates of genetic (Rg) and phenotypic (Rp) correlations (SE in parentheses) between height growth components and 2nd-year height increment HI PG Inland PG Rg Rp LG Rg Rp CG Rg Rp FG Rg Rp HI Rg Rp 1.00 1.00 0.13 (0.27) 0.15 (0.06) Coastal 1.00 1.00 -0.39 (0.39) -0.13 (0.07) Inland Coastal 0.92 (0.04) 0.91 (0.01) 0.37 (0.31) 0.68 (0.04) 0.54 (0.21) 0.46 (0.06) 0.09 (0.41) 0.18 (0.08) 0.77 (0.17) 0.63 (0.04) 0.10 (0.31) 0.23 (0.06) 0.15 (0.06) 0.36 (0.06) 0.28 (0.23) 0.30 (0.31) 0.06 (0.06) 0.64 (0.04) 0.65 (0.04) 0.78 (0.12) 0.28 (0.06) 0.92 (0.04) 0.91 (0.01) 0.37 (0.31) 0.68 (0.04) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.77 (0.13) NoTE: See Table 1 for description of traits. -, variance among families was not significant. variety of Douglas-fir. When interior Douglas-fir was grown in Michigan, both LG and CO varied among provenances (Bongarten 1978). If selecting for PO rather than FG incurs less type-1 risk, as hypothesized by Logan and Pollard (1975) and Cannell and Johnstone (1978), then risk is lower in some populations and environments. In the environment of this experiment, PO contributed most to variation in increment of inland seedlings and FG to variation in increment of coastal seed­ lings. Type-1 risk, therefore, should be greater in coastal populations, if the hypothesis is true. Early selection for height is also likely to cause less type-2 risk in inland than in coastal populations. In inland populations, predicted BBUR and BSET were changed very little by selection. Selec­ tion in coastal populations added FG to HI, but also con­ siderably extended the vegetative period. In this experiment, environment had little differential effect on growth components. However, differential effects are routinely achieved in forest nurseries (Lavender 1984). Both test environment and population, therefore, may con­ dition the risk of early selection. A test environment minimizing risk would induce PO at the expense of FG. Second-year growth can be limited by restricted watering (Duryea 1984), but whether stressing the seedling reduces FG or PO is not clear. Patterns of growth observed in this experiment indicate that any treatment inducing early BSET-1 will reduce FG in the second growing season. The implication of our finding for Douglas-fir breeding in the Pacific Northwest depends on the validity of the hypothesis that FG is limited to a transitory juvenile period. Our study supplies no information on this point. General observation suggests that " ... with increasing age, increas­ ingly larger parts of the shoot elongate in the form of predetermined growth until eventually all shoot growth develops as predetermined growth in the adult tree" (Wi.ihlisch and Muhs 1986). In Douglas-fir, the role of FG beyond the seedling stage is far from understood. Whereas LG decreased with age in coastal Douglas-fir from British Columbia and was much more frequent on trees less than 10 years old (Walters and Soos 1961), FG still made up a significant proportion of the annual height increment of several interior Douglas-fir provenances at age 15 (Bongarten 1978). The implication of our results also depends on the breeding population. In breeding populations derived from inland sources, early selection for height should be quite effective, unless progeny evaluation sites encourage FG. Evaluation and selection in restrictive sites, however, may produce strains unable to utilize the longer growing seasons on favorable sites. In breeding populations from coastal sources, early height may be a poor predictor of later per­ formance, particularly if FG is restricted to a few early years. Selecting for early height superiority also may lengthen the CAN. J. FOR. RES. VOL. 1130 y TABLE 7. The consequence of selecting for trait on the performance of trait x, measured as the ratio of the correlated response to direct response resulting from direct selection for x 19, 1989 A.B. Squillace. School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville. pp. 313-318. CANNELL, M.G.R., and JOHNSTONE, R.C.B. 1978. Free or lammas growth and progeny performances in Silvae Genet. 27: 248-254. CANNELL, M.G.R., and WILLETT, S.C. 1975. Rates and times at which needles are initiated in buds on differing provenances of and in Scotland. Can. J. For. Res. 5: 367-380. CANNELL, M.G.R., THOMSON, S., and LINES, R. 1976. An analysis of inherent differences in shoot growth within some north temperate conifers. Tree physiology and yield improve­ ment. Edited by M.G.R. Cannell and F.T. Last. Academic Press, New York. pp. 173-205. CLEMENTS, J.R. 1970. Shoot responses of young red pine to watering applied over two seasons. Can. J. Bot. 48: 75-80. DURYEA, M.L. 1984. Nursery cultural practices: impacts on seed­ Forest nursery manual: production of bareroot ling quality. M.L. Duryea and T.D. Landis. Martinus seedlings. Nijhoff/Dr. W. Junk Publishers, Boston. pp. 143-164. FALCONER, D.S. 1981. Introduction to quantitative genetics. 2nd ed. Longman, Inc., New York. Chap. 19. FOSTER, G.S., CAMPBELL, R.K., and ADAMS, W.T. 1984. Heritability, gain, and C effects in rooting of western hemlock cuttings. Can. J. For. Res. 14: 628-638. KAY A , Z. 1987. Genetic variation in shoot growth patterns of Douglas-fir populations from southwest Oregon. Ph.D. disser­ tation, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR. LAVENDER, D.P. 1984. Plant physiology and nursery environ­ Forest nursery ment: interactions affecting seedling growth. M.L. manual: production of bareroot seedlings. Duryea and T.D. Landis. Martinus Nijhoff!Dr. W. Junk Publishers, Boston. pp. 133-141. LOGAN, K.T., and POLLARD, D.F.W. 1975. Mode of shoot growth in 12-year-old black spruce provenances. Can. J. For. Res. 5: 539-540. LOOPSTRA, C.A., and ADAMS, W.T. 1989. Patterns of variation in first-year seedling traits within and among Douglas-fir breeding zones in southwest Oregon. Silvae Genet. In press. NAMKOONG, G. 1979. Introduction to quantitative genetics in forestry. USDA For. Serv. Tech. Bull. No. 1588. Chap. 3. POLLARD, D.F.W., and LOGAN, K.T. 1976. Inherent variation in "free" growth in relation to numbers of needles produced by provenances of Tree physiology and yield improvement. M.G.R. Cannell and F.T. Last. Academic Press, New York. pp. 245-251. REHFELDT, G.B. 1979. Ecological adaptations in Douglas-fir var. populations. I. North Idaho and north-east Washington. Heredity, 43: 383-397. 1983. Genetic variability within Douglas-fir populations: implications for tree improvement. Silvae Genet. 32: 9-14. WALTERS, J., and Soos, J. 1961. Some observations on the relationship of lammas shoots in the form and growth of Douglas-fir seedlings. Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver. Res. Pap. No. 40. WDHLISCH, G. VON. 1982. By what method should predetermined and free growth be measured? Proceedings of the IUFRO Joint Meeting of Working Parties on Genetics about Breeding Strategies Including Multiclona:l Varieties, 6-10 Sept. 1982, Sensenstein. Lower Saxony Forest Research Institute, Staufenberg-Escherode, Federal Republic of Germany. p. 172. WOHLISCH, G. VON, and MUHS, H.-J. 1986. Influence of age on sylleptic and proleptic free growth of Norway spruce seedlings. Silvae Genet. 35: 42-47. Picea sitchensis. Selected trait x BSET-1 BBUR PG LG CG FG HI BSET-2 Inland HI FG PG Trait y Coastal Inland Coastal Inland Coastal -0.40 0.22 1.00 0.42 -0.08 -0.23 0.38 0.51 0.19 -0.21 0.27 1.25 0 1.00 0.63 0.84 0.67 0.01 -0.38 0.78 1.16 1.00 1.02 0.87 0.15 -0.18 0.91 0.59 0 0.65 1.00 0 0.51 -0.32 0.36 0.09 0.62 0.59 1.00 0.56 NoTE: See Table 1 for description of traits. vegetative period considerably in seedling stages, increas­ ing the probability of damage by frost or drought. In coastal breeding populations, selecting for predeter­ mined growth would seem to be a desirable way to improve height while decreasing risk. There is a danger, however. Free growth is probably a juvenile character, even in coastal Douglas-fir; even so, FG contributes some unknown quan­ tity, perhaps a significant proportion, to height at harvest. If this contribution is large, selecting for increased predeter­ mined growth may select indirectly for less FG (Table 7) and smaller height at harvest. The ramifications of selecting for components of height can be tested directly in long-term tests. Fortunately, both PG and FG of Douglas-fir vary genetically, and it should be possible to manipulate environments to emphasize either type of growth. If early selection for PG is found to be appropriate, our results suggest that bud size can be used to select indirectly for PG. Bud size and PG were strongly correlated and bud size is less expensive to measure, especially in seedlings in which FG is continuous and therefore easily confused with PG. Picea sitchensis In In Edited by In Edited by Picea mariana. In Edited by Acknowledgments Financial support for this research was provided by the U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Land Management, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, under the auspices of the Southwest Oregon Forestry Inten­ sified Research Program (grant No. PNW-80-85). BECKER, W.A. 1984. Manual of quantitative genetics. 4th ed. Academic Enterprises, Pullman, WA. pp. 57, 121-122. BONGARTEN, B. 1978. Genetic and environmental variation in shoot growth and other traits of blue spruce Ph.D. thesis, Michigan State University, East Lansing. CAMPBELL, R.K. 1986. Mapped genetic variation of Douglas-fir (Picea pungens). to guide seed transfer in southwest Oregon. Silvae Genet. 35: 85-96. CANNELL, M.G.R. 1974. Production of branches and foliage by and provenance young trees of differences and their simulation. J. Appl. Ecol. 11: 1091-1115. 1978. Components of conifer shoot growth. Proceedings of the 5th North American Forest Biology Workshop, C.A. Hollis and 13-15 March 1978, Gainesville, FL. Pinus contorta Pinus contorta Picea sitchensis: In ___ Edited by (Pseudotsuga menziesii ___ glauca)