Reproduced from JOURNAL OF FORESTRY January 1977/Volume 75/Number 1 by the FOREST SERVICE, U.S. DEPARTMENT QF AGRICULTURE, for official use EXPECTATIONS FROM INTENSIVE CULTURE ON INDUSTRIAL FOREST LANDS by D. A. S. P. DeBell, Brunette, and D. L. Schweitzer Expectat ions from Intensive Culture on Industr ial Forest Land s D. S. DeBell, A. P. Brunette, and D. L. Schweitzer ABSTRACT-A nationwide survey of industrial forest managers showed that use of most cultural practices is in­ creasing markedly, that anticipated investments in such practices are estimated to increase annual harvests through 1985 by 14 percent above the 1970 level, and that research and development is most desired on problems related to ge­ netics, site preparation, fertilization, and commerical thin­ ning. S everal recent reviews and forecasts have indicated that substantial increases in timber prices (relative to other commodities) will occur if present levels of forest management and utilization continue. One way THE AUTHORS- D. S. DeBell is project leader, Intensive Cul­ ture Research, Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, USDA Forest Service, Olympia, Washington. A. P. Brunette is consulting forester, Pendleton, Oregon. D. L. Schweitzer is forester, Policy Analysis Staff, Forest Service, Washington, D.C. This paper is based on a report prepared by a Subcommittee on Intensive Culture for the Technical Association of the Pulp and Paper Industry's Committee on Forecasting Technological Trends and Needs in the Pulp and Paper Industry. The authors thank other members of the subcommittee: D. A. Gansner, S. G. Boyce, E. Shoulders, D. W. Rose, J. C. Gordon, G. H. Schubert, and W. L. McKillop. 10/JoURNAL OF FORESTRY/January 1977 to reduce this rise is to increase timber supply through investment in intensive culture. The 1970 Outlook for Timber1 examined opportunities and concluded that much additional wood could be provided through in­ tensified practices. This report provides information on trends, expectations, and needs in the industrial sector. It is based upon a questionnaire survey of in­ dustrial managers. The Survey For survey purposes, intensive culture was consid­ ered to include the techniques (used singly or in vari­ ous combinations) of precommerical thinning, timber stand imprbvement, commercial thinning, site prepa­ ration, weed control, species conversion, use of genet­ ically improved stock, fertilization, drainage, irriga­ tion, short-rotation forestry, and intensified protec­ tion. Questions dealt with past (1971-1974) and antici­ pated future (1975-1985) use of these practices, esti­ mated contributions of the practices to future timber harvests, expected harvest increases if the practices were used for an entire rotation, and the information 1USDA Forest Sen•ice. 1973. The outlook for timber in the United States. For. Resour. Rpt. 20. 367 p. base for evaluating the practices. Our goal was to sur­ vey all industrial owners having more than 50,000 acres of forest land. Owners of smaller acreages re­ ceived a questionnaire if their tree farms were regis­ tered with the American Forest Institute and the addresses and businesses could be verified in Standard & Poor's Register of Corporations, Directors and Executives, 1974 edition. Questionnaires were sent to 166 firms, or regional headquarters in the case of large firms. Two-thirds of the firms-109 in all-returned the questionnaires. Of these firms, 62 were integrated business enterprises with fiber and solid processing plants, 30 dealt only with solid wood products, 11 had only fiber product interests, and the remaining 6 had no manufacturing plants. Of these responding firms, 18 owned less than 50,000 acres, 39 owned between 50,000 and 250,000 acres, and 52 owned more than 250,000 acres. ,Table 1: . P ercent: f lit du t ially held lands tre ted Firms in the eastern United States-North (31) and South (45)---participated to a greater extent than those in the Rocky Mountain (9) and Pacific Coast (24) re­ gions. Because of the excellent response and the fact that most of the major forest products companies par­ ticipated, we believe that the data adequately reflect the current plans and attitudes of industrial land mana­ gers in the United States. Trends in Intensive Culture Managers we e asked to estimate the percentage of company land treated by specific cultural practices each year for the period 1971-1974. They also were asked·to indicate intentions for the next decade (1975­ 1985): that is, did they plan to increase, decrease, hold constant, or not use the various practices? Summaries of their replies are presented in tables 1 and 2. Aver­ . Firm size-class (acres) Region reco'mm.ercial i l. Nationwide thinning ;Timber stand improvement ;commerc:;ia thlnf1ing.· :Fe rt lizatio n : :site preparation:> :Species conversion ;Genetic 'Improvement Weed control. 'Short-rotation Drainage. • Irrigation Intensified protection . · North "- South .:. ..:____ - ,..- - ':.:.. """ -- _ :.. 0.2 <0.05 0.1 1.8 '2.7 2.0.' 2.5 1:1 3.4 ;4 .0 .4 1 2 : : < .05 .6 .4 .3 .1 .2 ! : .0 1.8 : < g : 5 .0 1.8 ."' nnually by various Intensive. practices, 1 97 1 1974?::' : .0 2.0 Rocky Mountain Pacific coast 0.6 < .05 5. < .05 0;5 <7 ·t"":'j.' , ', '1 j 50,000 to 250,000 More than 0.1 .7 '1.6 .0 0.1 1.8 1.8 :o 0.2 1.9 2 6 ·.· .4 .2 .5 .3 .3 Less than·. 50,000 i 250,000 \ ----·"'"---Percent'--------..;._.,..'"'-' --' -----'- ·i I l - .. :6 .0 .0 : .0 .0 2.1 . • ,g. : : ' .6 .8 : .0 1.5 ·· : . : . 1: · 1t . i j\ . ··.· .4 .... . ,3 • . : '.j : .0 1.4 .0 4.2 .0 10 • .. l j ' i .I Table 2. Percentage of firms Intending to maintain or Increase current use of practices during 1975-1985.1 Cultural practice Precommercial thinning Timber stand Improvement Commercial thinning Fertilization Site preparation Species conversion Genetics Weed control Short-rotation Drainage Irrigation . Intensified protection Nationwide North South Rocky Mountain Pacific Coast -------------------- Percent of firms ..:. 53 69 92 52 83 65 71 50 16 34 6 58 32 74 81 39 55 58 61 52 26 1 3 52 47 71 98 67 96 73 87 51 13 51 7 67 88 75 88 25 88 38 25 13 0 0 0 38 l Firm size-class (acres) Region 79 63 96 50 96 67 71 58 8 29 4 58 Less tharf 50,000 50,000 to 250,000 - -------·----- 35 65 82 18 71 47 47 29 12 18 0 35 54 67 97 33 82 59 59' 44 13 28 5 54 More than 250,000 ---- :.... ' - i j 58 75 90 75 88 75 88 62 10 44 2 69 .1Remalnlng firms that responded Indicated they would either decrease present use or not use practice at all. January 1977/JOURNAL OF FORESTRY/II ; Table 3. Estimated annual effect of Intensive culture on roundwood supplies from Industrial lands In recent past (1971-1974) and near future (1975-1985). · . ·:Region Range harvest1 -- MM f ; North • South : Rocky Mountain ' Pacific Coast i cu ft -- 316 1,307 170 1,637 - I All U.S. 3,430 Additional annual supplies 1971-1974 gain's 1970' Average2 -- MM --- Percent3 --0-20 0-40 0-10 0-80 3.8 5.7 2.5 3.9 . 0-80 4.5 · cu ft-- 12 74 4 64 154 197&.1985 gains Average2 Range --- Percenf3--0-40 0-80 0-15 0-100+ 8.9 14.1 11.3 15.2 0-100+ 14.0 · Additional annual supplies -- MM cu ft-- 28 184 19 249 480 : 1Source: The Outlook for Timber in the United $tates, 1973. USDA For. Serv. For. Res. Pap. 20, 367 p. : 2Weighted by 1970 harvest of responding firms. . I i38ase: 1970 harvest. t' ages for percent of area treated were weighted by acreage size-class of individual firms. Applications of most techniques (especially grow­ ing-stock control, fertilization, and use of genetically improved stock) more than doubled from 197 1 through 1974. The greatest use of intensive cultural practices was on the large ownerships which occur primarily in the South and on the Pacific Coast. During the next decade similar or greater activity is anticipated by most firms for most practices (table 2). Exceptions to these general trends are irrigation and short-rotation forestry, where past use has been negligible and little or no expansion is anticipated in the near future. In viewing the percentages· of land treated, one should remember that most practices are needed or applicable to only a portion of the land. For example, perhaps 5 percent of the stands are of such age and stocking that precommercial thinning is needed; thus, treatment of less than 1 percent can be rather signifi­ cant in terms of accomplishing the needed task. Simi­ larly, although many companies have made substantial investments in genetic improvement programs, these efforts are not adequately reflected in terms of acres treated with improved stock. Expected Effects on Levels of Harvest Two questions were asked to determine by how much the intensified practices caused the actual har­ vests in 197 1- 1974 to exceed the 1970 harvest, and how much planned investments would raise 1975-1985 har­ vests above the 1970 level. It should be noted that changes in harvest levels can occur because of factors other than increased growth associated with intensive culture (e. g. , 'more complete utilization, over-cutting). Answers are summarized by geographic region in table 3. Recent ( 1971- 1974) increases in harvest were esti­ mated to be 4.5 percent. on a nationwide basis. Esti­ mates from the South were considerably higher than those from other regions, presumably because south­ ern pine forests have been intensively managed for a longer time and because rotations are shorter. The West and North, however, are gaining. A future ( 1975- 1985) increase of 14.0 percent due to intensive culture is expected in roundwood harvests from industry lands across the nation. The greatest gains are anticipated in the Pacific Coast and South regions: 15.2 and 14. 1 percent. These increases are significant for forest industry lands, but when viewed from the standpoint of total national wood supply they represent increases of 5 percent or less. Table 4. -Percent-. . -"Numbef¢.'·'' - Pe rcent! r!. .· 't ,l.. {1l/·f: :· t .: ! : I · ·i E !2 Fertilization Site preparation Species conversion Genetics Weed control Short-rotation ent Drainage ·• · . .. ·Irrigation Intensified pr t ct ion . · 12/JOURNAL OF FORESTRY/January 1977 '· 1. 19 · 26 26 28 14 26 20 13 16 · • ;21 7 . 21· 19 21 16 15 14 14 14 18 24 · 39 · . 13 . 63 11 13 17 ,1 ' ) .• · i oe ' .1Rernainlng firms either.did not answer the question, or Indicated the gain was unl<noW, E�pectedlflcr.e{l.se (n wood remov d and utilized over a gr wth .cycle or 'rQ,tailonlf th · Table 5.' Information base of decisions on Intensive cultural practices in Industry (national averages) · Quality of existing information Proportion of firms developing mostor all data Inside the firm1 • Precommercial thinning Timber stand. improvement Commercial thinnin9 Fertilization Site preparation . Species .conversion. , Genetics Weed control Short-rotation. Drainage Irrigation . . • .. Intensified protection :·'· Nonexistent or poor ----"'" -. ..:. -·--'-'-''- _..:. ___ .t · .91'".· ' 39: >' 81 ' · ·. . . • 25 < 57 50 32 54 . · 15 31 ·. 57 56 77 34 • 36 . ' 34 32 . 38 34 34 28 31 18. 43 . .. 1Remainlng 1/rins indicated that most or all Information was deveioped by outside S,ources ' ' ) '. ' '' · - ' '' ' -, Although there may be a variety of motives for ap­ plying cultural practices (e.g., increased product value, lower production costs) the additional volume was of paramount interest in this survey. Industrial managers were asked to estimate percentage gains in yield' obtainable if they applied a given cultural prac­ tice on their lands during one growth cycle or rotation. On a national btlsis, the expected volume gain for most cultural practices lies in the range of 18 to 28 percent (table 4). As expected, estimates fluctuated widely among regions and firms. · Information Base for Decisions One reason for the variation in gain estimates may be the amount of knowledge about effects of various cultural practices on volume produced. Industrial managers were therefore asked to identify the source and to rank the quality of existing data for cultural practices, and also to state priorities for research and development to gather additional information. A surprising proportion of firms indicated that they develop most or all of their cultural information inter­ nally (table 5). This is especially true for some of the more common practices such as growing-stock con­ '' . . .. . · · ' .· , . . · Medium 1 - ..:. .:.. ..:. - ,_.'- ..;, ..;, :.;: · c:-..:-';,. i . :.. \, · ···:g . 21 22 22 4li · 15. A6' ·s5··· 67 83 38 . .. 40 32 26 .28. 24 39' 23 22 . 13. 36'. ; : .: .1.:1 39 46. 52;. 24;. 61 15 : ' . ' .tZi fl;•. ., '4/ . '26C: .. l ji ·· l 1 . trol, species conversion, site preparation, and weed control. Cooperative research programs, however, have been used to gather information for fertilization and tree improvement practices. As expected, data on practices not in common use (e. g. , short-rotation for­ estry, irrigation) were developed by people .outside the companies. Some industrial managers view information as good to excellent for all cultural practices surveyed; some view it as nonexistent or poor. In general, industrial managers in the South thought information was better than did managers in other regions. Even within the same region, it is apparent from the discrepancy in replies that information is not generally available or applicable to all ftrms, or that all firms are not equally aware of existing information. Although the survey did not atterript to explore what a firm meant by poor, good, or excellent information, it is interesting that some firms indicated that information was good to ex­ cellent and also gave high priority to research. Such responses may indicate that information requirements for applying cultural practices are changing with time, and that management decisions are becoming more complex. • , South , Rocky Mountain Pacific Co st Firms providing estlmate1 Average expected gain2 Firms providing estimate1 Average expected galn2 -Number- - Percent- - Number - - Percent- 32 37 37 34· 39 37 38 34 22 32 23 27 16 17 15 19 34 32 22 16 11 29 8 17 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 · 46 30 34 14 20 9 16 12 17 . '17 25 22 Firms providing, ·· estimate1 .:.:.Number•·. 21 15 21 18 18 18 18 16 ' 11 11 10 13 Average expected galn2 - Percent30 15 22. 16 21 21 18 11 12 4 14 9 believed the practice was not applicable to their lands. practice were applied to the firm's lands. or GPO 997·676 1 '1 Intensive-culture practices. .I J J - Potential of Various Cultural Practices to Increase Yield , ·.·· Low k h c ec lhg,. ., . 52'. 24 47 28 '51 36 15 13 5 23 . 3L •. . 11 · . excellent. ..;,Percent of. firms 10'' 42 ·21 .· · <;f· ,·: · r· :.: '· < •....•.•7. ;'' ..· Fai r • Priorities for research and development. · January 1977/JoURNAL OF FoRESTRY/13