Ranking NZ river values – application of the River Values Assessment System (RiVAS) Ken Hughey and Mary-Anne Baker 2010 1 Acknowledgements A big thanks to: • FRST, for funding the Envirolink Project that led to development of this system; • The multiple participants who have worked together, and ‘separately’ on system development. 2 The challenge • Need a ‘prioritisation’ tool now, for multiple statutory and non statutory purposes. • A tool that works regionally but also has national level application potential. • A tool that will work with the best available information. • A tool that is user friendly. • A tool that, when applied, provides defensible (e.g., Environment Court) results. 3 The approach • In late 2008 we established a project steering group. • Initiated literature review. Some work, e.g., kayaking (but 20+ yrs ago); the Waters of National Importance project, but of limited value. • No one had developed a system to look objectively/ quantitatively or in a standardised, user friendly way across a range of values. • We developed a methodology, the River Values Assessment System (RiVAS). • RiVAS applied to range of values at selected councils … 4 The values tested • Salmonids – Tasman: done; subsequently, Marlborough; Hawkes Bay: in press • Irrigation – Canterbury; Tasman: done • Native Birdlife – Canterbury; Tasman: done • Native fish – Wellington and Tasman: in progress • Iwi – Southland: done • Natural character – Marlborough; Tasman: done • Swimming – Manawatu-Whanganui; Tasman: done • Kayaking – West Coast; Tasman: done; subsequently, Hawkes Bay: in press • Hydro – Bay of Plenty; Tasman: in progress 5 The method – multi-criteria driven, standardised numeric scale, and expert panel based approach • Very few ‘values’ have full or up-to-date, comparable or quantitative, data, either nationally or regionally – notable exception is F&G NZ’s salmonid angling surveys. • No contemporary data for some values, e.g., swimming or natural character, while others are mixed, e.g., native birdlife. • Used the best available information - filled the gaps with expert judgement: there is no other way! • Method built around key attributes of river values, populating where possible with real data, and then converting this information to numeric scales for ranking values = this is known as multi criteria analysis. • Ultimately this led to us using expert panels and best available information as the cornerstones of the project. 6 Using the Best Available Information • Mandated in Fisheries Act 1996 under the Information Principles (S10) • Supported by numerous Environment Court decisions • Bottom line: cannot wait forever for the collection of perfect data so we use the Best Available Information, in a precautionary way • We are absolutely explicit about the data we use – nothing is hidden Why we use Expert panels • The most appropriate people to find, populate and interpret the Best Available Information are experts in the various values • Experts are also best placed for identifying the attributes, indicators and importance thresholds of the values • The choice and credibility of experts is vital – a credible panel tends to act cautiously because its members, by definition, have to remain credible • An independent facilitator can keep experts ‘honest’ • Independent peer reviewers are also an important moderating influence The method – operationalising Assessment criteria • • • • Step 1: define river value categories and river segments Step 2: identify all of the value’s attributes – economic, social, environmental, cultural Step 3: select and describe primary attributes – reduce to a list of <10 Step 4: identify indicators – choose objective over subjective wherever possible Determining significance • • • • • Step 5: determine indicator thresholds – quantify these where possible and think nationally Step 6: apply indicators and their thresholds – convert all to 1=low; 2=medium; 3= high Step 7: weight the primary attributes – preferably equal weighting, but otherwise as needed Step 8: determine river significance – sum total and determine overall importance, e.g., in relation to water conservation order criteria Step 9: outline other factors relevant to the assessment of significance Method review • Step 10: review assessment process and identify future information needs, e.g., survey needs 9 So, what does the output look like at the end of the day? The following two applications – for native birdlife and irrigation in Canterbury are examples showing: • the sorts of input data, • the integrating system, and • the final ranked outputs. Demonstration 1: Birdlife - Canterbury River 3 7412 4408 a,b,c,d, e,f,g,h 3 14342 3896 a,b,c,d, e,f,g,h Waitaki Lower 3 Waitaki Upper 3 Avon 2 c.30 1500 Kaituna 1 c.10 200 a,b,d,f, g,h a,b,d,f, g,h Rakaia 3 4842 a,b,c,d, e,f,g,h 6636 b,c,d,e, f,g,h 8407 a,b,c,d, e,f,g,h 32102 8104 30000 6. Range: 0-12, e.g., blue duck (BD), black stilt (BS), wrybill (WB) B-FT, B-BG, BDo, WB, BlSh WB, B-FT, BDo, B-BG, CT, BlSh B-FT(>5%); B-BG; BDo B-FT (>5%); BBG; WB (10%); BDo BlSh, B-BG, R-BG SCG, BlSh WB, B-FT, BDo, B-BG, W-FT, CT, BlSh B-FT; B-BG; WB (30%); Bdo, W-FT B-FT, B-BG, BDo, BlSh BS, WB, BFT, BDo, CT, BlSh B-FT (8%); B-BG; BDo BS (100%); B-FT (15%); B-BG; WB (20%); BDo Standard 1 or more > 5%, or 3 or more 1-4.9% = high = 3; 2 at 1-4.9% = medium = 2; 1 at 1-4.9% = low; None >1% = 0 1=1; 2-3= 2; 4 or more = 3 1-4 = low = 1; 5-6= medium = 2; 7-8= high = 3 INDICATORS 1= <999 individuals; 2= 1000-4999 individuals; 3= >5000 individuals 1=<4999ha and/or 5-10km; 2=5000-9999ha and/or 11-30km; 3= >10000ha and/or >30km 1= low; 2= medium; 3= high 5. Range: 0-12, e.g. blue duck (BD), black stilt (BS), wrybill (WB) 2b. km for mainly single channel bird rivers 2a. ha for braided river birds 4. Ranges from 0-8, e.g., a= open-water divers; b= deep water waders Waimakariri 3. Number of native wetland birds Waiau 1= Habitat or species widely represented in NZ; 2= Habitat or species rarely represented in NZ; 3= Habitat or species not represented in other regions in NZ Rank1 Sum Weights 1 6. Species strongholds 5. Number of 'threatened or at risk' species 4. Breeding guilds 3. Numbers 2. Amount of Habitat 1. Relative distinctiveness of habitat 6. Proportion of 'threatened or at risk' populations (Obj/Subj) 5. Number of 'threatened or at risk' species present (Obj) 4. Breeding guilds (Obj) 3. Numbers (Obj) 2. Amount of Habitat (Obj) 1. Relative distinctiveness (Subj) PRIMARY ATTRIBUTES SCORING OF PRIMARY ATTRIBUTES Overall evaluation of importance INDICATOR THRESHOLDS DSS: If column 6, population thresholds (threatened spp >5%) = 3; or total score is 15 or more = national importance; if all columns 1-5 are 2 or less and column 6 is 0; or the total score <10 = local; otherwise regional 3 2 2 3 3 2 15 7 National 3 3 3 3 3 3 18 1 National 2 2 2 1 0 7 13 Local 1 1 2 1 1 6 17 Local 3 3 3 3 3 3 18 1 National 3 3 3 3 3 2 17 5 National 3 3 3 3 3 3 18 1 National Demonstration 2: Irrigation – Canterbury 9. Alternative supply 10. Socio economic benefit 1. Technical feasibility of abstraction 2. Technical feasibility of storage 3. Reliability (ROR) 4. Reliability (Storage) 5. Size of resource 6. Soil moisture deficit 7. Irrigable area 8. Receiving environment 9. Alternative supply 10. Socio economic benefit Aggregate Bypass solution ranking from % (maps from CSWS) Ranking from 1 (low, Mackenzie)- 3 (Waipara) (high, Expert assessment) 3=3 3=3 >40% = 3, >20%=2,<20%=1 >3000=3, <100 = 1 >70 = 3,>5 = 2, >1700 = 1,>1200 = 2 > 100,000 ha = 3, > 5000 ha = 2 Rank 5 = 1, 3 and 4 = 2, 1 and 2 = 3 > 60% = 1, > 30% = 2 Direct transfer (3 = 3) Sum 3 3 3 3 2 29 81.5 National 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 28 80.5 National Rangitata 2 2 42 3154 100 700 270000 2 30% 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 27 79.5 National Waimakariri 2 2 32 3784 120 700 141000 3 20% 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 25 77 National Waiau 3 3 39 347 11 700 270000 2 30% 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 26 60 Regional Sth Ashburton 3 1 26 3059 97 900 54206 1 0 2 3 1 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 25 59 Regional Hurunui 3 3 30 2302 73 600 63716 3 0 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 25 59 Regional Orari 3 3 24 189 6 600 105012 4 10% 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 25 59 Regional Nth Ashburton 3 3 27 315 10 600 105012 4 10% 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 25 59 Regional Opihi 3 3 18 378 12 700 141000 3 10% 2 3 3 1 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 25 58.5 Regional Opuha 3 2 28 347 11 600 105012 4 10% 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 24 58 Regional Ashley 2 2 32 284 9 700 270000 2 10% 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 24 58 Regional Clarence 3 1 26 2271 72 900 1653 1 0 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 3 24 52 Local Hope 3 1 33 1419 45 1200 54206 1 0 1 3 1 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 1 22 38 Regional Hakataramea 2 3 38 757 24 500 24000 4 0% 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 1 22 38 Regional Ahuriri 3 1 18 189 6 500 8077 2 0% 1 3 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 3 1 21 36.5 Regional Maerewhenua 3 2 13 126 4 600 41000 2 0% 2 3 2 1 2 1 3 2 3 3 2 22 31.5 Local Pareora 3 3 23 95 3 700 5000 5 20% 2 3 3 2 1 1 3 2 1 3 2 21 31 Local Waipara 3 2 4 95 3 600 60000 3 10% 3 3 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 3 3 21 30.5 Local Selwyn 3 2 14 126 4 600 41000 3 0% 2 3 2 1 2 1 3 2 2 3 2 21 30.5 Local Tengawai 3 1 22 95 3 500 74000 2 0% 1 3 1 2 1 1 3 2 3 3 1 20 30 Local Waihao 3 1 9 126 4 600 41000 4 10% 2 3 1 1 2 1 3 2 2 3 2 20 29.5 Local Avon 3 1 24 32 1 700 1000 3 20% 2 3 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 3 2 19 23 Local Cust 3 1 14 158 5 700 1000 3 0 2 3 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 3 2 19 22.5 Local Okuku 3 1 67 32 1 700 1000 5 100% 2 3 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 17 20.5 Local Halswell 3 1 5 32 1 700 1000 5 80% 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 16 18.5 Local Kaituna 3 1 72 63 2 700 0 5 0% 2 2 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 15 18.5 Local 11668 370 500 212596 National - irrigated area 3, size of resource 3, soil moisture deficit 2 or greater. Local - resource size = 1, irrigated area = 1 or no soil moisture deficit. Remainder regional Irrigated area and size of resource cubed, reliability soil moisture and alternative supply +50%, remainder aggregated. Weighting for irrigable area and size of resource only applies if Soil Moisture deficit is >1, otherwise they receive a 50% weighting. 4. Reliability (Storage) 53 Expert ranking 8. Receiving environment 3 30% Rank 1 - 5 with 1 being low risk and 5 being high risk (expert assessment) 3 2 7. Irrigable area 3 270000 Irrigable area 3 700 6. Soil moisture deficit 3 203 Rainfall average over irrigable area 2 6402 5. Size of resource 0% 43 Strategic Water study 2 3 Currently annual volume 3 2 3. Reliability (ROR) 3 Rakaia MALF/ Mean 4% - 72% Waitaki 1. Technical feasibility of abstraction 2. Technical feasibility of storage Rivers Expert ranking Primary Attributes and indicators Conversion to threshold values Ranking ROR weighted Some of the lessons/questions to date • Expert panel selection sometimes challenging – ultimately, credibility extremely important and willingness and ability to work within a collaborative. • People sometimes sceptical/hesitant until they have worked through the process – ‘working through’ removes this concern, mostly. • Need a preliminary scan to reduce the size of the task, i.e., based on the best available information remove rivers of no importance for this value. 15 Resource requirements • A ‘champion’ needed within council, and probably an external consultant to run the project(s); • A credible multi stakeholder group must be established; • For some values, e.g., tangata whenua, considerable time is needed for consultation and resource gathering; • Cost varies greatly – for first time national level development of attributes etc then cost is greater than subsequent regional level applications (for latter: estimate of $3-6,000 per value application). • Guidelines & reports available in the Hughey and Baker (2011) LEAP report 24 published by Lincoln University. 16