A brief introduction
Dr Jerry Ratcliffe
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11 years Metropolitan Police
‰
BSc and PhD University of Nottingham
‰
School of Policing Studies, NSW Police College
‰
Temple University
Philadelphia
‰
www.jratcliffe.net
‰
Intelligence-led crime reduction
Academic Coordinator
Australia’s National Strategic Intelligence Course
Senior Research Analyst
Australian Institute of Criminology
Dept of Criminal Justice
Temple University
Intelligence-led crime reduction
Criminal environment
Impact
Interpret
Criminal environment
Interpret
Impact
Influence
Intelligence
Decision-maker
‰
People
‰
Tools
‰
Skills
‰
Techniques? POP? ILP?
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Who are the targets?
‰
Where are the problems?
Intelligence
Influence
Decision-maker
Intelligence-led crime reduction
Intelligence-led crime reduction
Criminal environment
Interpret
Intelligence
Criminal environment
Impact
Influence
Decision-maker
‰
Who are the decision-makers?
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Are products disseminated to the right people?
‰
Interpret
Intelligence
Impact
Influence
Decision-maker
UK Criminal Intelligence Strategy Group (Working Group 3) said:
“Analysts should not simply provide
management with statistics and colourful
charts but a real understanding of criminal
activity and the direction in tackling it.”
Who have the real power for long-term crime
prevention?
– Who can spend money?
– Who can influence policy?
– Who can enforce that policy?
Crime mapping and interpretation
Crime mapping and interpretation
Criminal environment
Interpret
Intelligence
‰
Criminal environment
Impact
Influence
Decision-maker
Now in a data-rich environment
Impact
Interpret
Intelligence
‰
Influence
Decision-maker
Now in a data-rich environment
• Digital data used to be rare
• Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships
• Now it is rare for agencies not to collect data
electronically
• Intelligence-led policing
• But… we have only added collection items…
• Intelligence fusion centers
Crime mapping trends
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‰
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Increased use of
disparate data sets
Increased use of rapidly
updated online mapping
Increased expectation of
technological prowess
Increased expectation of
analytical certainty
Crime mapping trends
‰
More convoluted
‰
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More urgent
‰
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More complicated
‰
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Less honest?
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Crime mapping trends
‰
‰
‰
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Increased expectation of
technological prowess
Increased expectation of
analytical certainty
Increased use of rapidly
updated online mapping
Increased expectation of
technological prowess
Increased expectation of
analytical certainty
‰
More convoluted
‰
More urgent
‰
More complicated
‰
Less honest = more
mistakes?
Crime mapping trends
Increased use of
disparate data sets
Increased use of rapidly
updated online mapping
Increased use of
disparate data sets
‰
‰
Do these things
actually reduce
crime?
‰
‰
Increased use of
disparate data sets
Increased use of rapidly
updated online mapping
Increased expectation of
technological prowess
Increased expectation of
analytical certainty
Is this driving shorter-term
thinking?
Knee-jerk crime reduction?
Things can be done quicker…
Crime mapping trends
‰
‰
‰
‰
Crime mapping trends
Increased use of
disparate data sets
‰
Increased use of rapidly
updated online mapping
Increased expectation of
technological prowess
Increased expectation of
analytical certainty
‰
‰
Can you explain how a kernel
density surface is created?
Taken a cartography course?
‰
Increased use of
disparate data sets
Increased use of rapidly
updated online mapping
Increased expectation of
technological prowess
Increased expectation of
analytical certainty
Do we understand how our
decision-makers think…?
IACP Training Catalogue 2004
IACP Training Catalogue 2004
Program category
Number of courses offered
Quality Leadership
5
Community Involvement
8
Management and Supervision
12
Crisis Management
3
Force Management and
Integrity Issues
Staffing, Personnel and Legal
Issues
Patrol Operations and Tactical
Responses
Investigations
‰
‰
13
10
Three courses address crime reduction in
specific situations
‰
Total training days : 16 days
‰
SWAT training and management: 48 days
8
9
Only one of 68 courses is dedicated to crime
prevention
Essential components
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Three components for predictive work:
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‰
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An identifiable decision-making system
A will to think ahead in both intelligence and
decision-making
A will to apply the results in both intelligence and
decision-making
Neil Quarmby (2004) “Futures work in strategic criminal intelligence”
In Ratcliffe [Ed] Strategic Thinking in Criminal Intelligence,
Federation Press
We should realise that…
‰
‰
‰
We should realise that…
“The products of intelligence work are
objectifications, whose status is dependent
upon how they are understood and reacted to in
police organizations, rather than any quality
intrinsically inherent in them.”
Innes, Fielding and Cope (2005) The appliance of science?: The
theory and practice of crime intelligence analysis, British Journal of
Criminology, 45(1), p. 54.
The 3-i model in New Zealand
Crime mapping products are what we make of
them
Decision-makers are not necessarily trained to
understand them
Analysts have a duty to convey the
information/analysis/intelligence in a manner that
best suits the decision-makers
Criminal environment
Interpret
Impact
Influence
‰
Because you never know what they will do with it…
Intelligence
Decision-maker
Criminal environment
Interpret
Intelligence/analysis
Criminal environment
Impact
Interpret
Influence
‰
Data entry problems abound
‰
No requirement for officers to enter data
Decision-maker
‰
While modus operandi and stolen property are
recorded, “nobody has time to analyze the stuff”
(OIC district intel office)
‰
Interpret
Intelligence/analysis
‰
Training?
Those that had undergone the old training found
the goalposts had moved…
Criminal environment
‰
Intelligence/analysis
Criminal environment
Impact
Influence
Decision-maker
Most intel goes to patrol officers
“Line-ups [for uniform officers] take place in the
intelligence office. We do the section briefs. It works
well.” (intel manager)
‰
Decision-maker
“The previous analysts course was not relevant to high
volume tactical analysis at the district level.” (analyst)
“My biggest problem is direction – I get none from intel
at District HQ. No new ideas. It feels isolated here.”
(Area intel officer)
Influence
Influence
“I’ve had no training and have had to train myself. If I
left it would take a month to get someone up to
speed.” (Area intel officer)
Cooperation, sharing, direction?
Interpret
Impact
Interpret
Influence
‰
Intelligence/analysis
Influence
District commanders
‰
Number of intel staff that named the district
commander as a decision-maker?
0
But are the troops the real decision-makers?
“Service from the troops is slowly improving but still
poor. There is a lack of responsibility. It is better to go
through the supervisor to get accountability” (analyst)
Impact
Interpret
‰
Number of district commanders that named the
district commander as a decision-maker?
0
Decision-maker
Criminal environment
Influence
‰
Intelligence/analysis
Criminal environment
Impact
Interpret
Influence
Decision-maker
As one strategic analyst said:
Impact
‰
Impact
Interpret
Intelligence/analysis
Influence
Decision-maker
Don’t cops know how to stop crime?
“My intelligence officer often gets frustrated with shift
commanders. He is powerless without my support.”
(Area commander)
“I want to attend management meetings, be
consulted more, be trusted more, be more
involved.”
“We have a real blockage with some leaders, such as
the Sergeants in the teams and sections.” (analyst)
Criminal environment
Impact
‰
Impact
Interpret
Intelligence/analysis
Influence
Decision-maker
What are district priorities?
“Here there is a risk and performance manager, and a
performance analyst. We haven’t done tactical
intelligence; we have done performance appraisal
work” (analyst)
What sort of leaders are in your workplace?
“Tactical intelligence is for my sub-commanders. I
receive risk and performance…statistical indicators. Any
new intelligence should go to the teams and not me.”
District Commander
What sort of leaders are in your workplace?
Crime mapping trends
‰
“[Area] Controllers have no idea what intel do.”
New Zealand Police Inspector
‰
‰
‰
Crime mapping trends
‰
‰
‰
‰
Increased expectation of
technological prowess
Increased expectation of
analytical certainty
Increased use of rapidly
updated online mapping
Increased expectation of
technological prowess
Do these things
actually reduce
crime?
Increased expectation of
analytical certainty
So what to do?
Increased use of
disparate data sets
Increased use of rapidly
updated online mapping
Increased use of
disparate data sets
‰
‰
They certainly
raise expectations
‰
‰
‰
Make good maps
Resist the desire to chase every new quicker
and better toy
Help decision-makers understand: most of them
don’t know what you know
Be the best analyst and crime mapper you can
be, and learn the whole business of crime
reduction
Understand that decision-makers like shiny
toys…
Dr Jerry Ratcliffe
Temple University
Philadelphia
www.jratcliffe.net