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CONTENTS/ İÇİNDEKİLER
The Relatedness of Social Contract Theory in Understanding the Rising Trends of Violent
Revolution and Terrorism in Developing Countries
Chigozie Enwere
1-17
Democratization in the Balkans: Evaluating the Criteria of Electoral Process
Salih Özcan & Gloria Shkurti
19-37
Politik Yolsuzluk ve Yasadışı Uyuşturucu Ticaretine Etkisi: Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma
Osman Şahin & Erkan Demirbaş
39-56
Reconsidering Organizational Commitment Construct: Empirical Test Of Acceptance
Band
Setyabudi Indartono
57-74
Örgütsel Kimlik Algısı, Örgütsel Bağlılık ve Örgütsel Vatandaşlık Davranışı Arasındaki
İlişkinin Belirlenmesine Yönelik Bir Araştırma
Şirin Atakan Duman & Ayşın Paşamehmetoğlu & Ahmet Burak Poyraz 75-89
The Relational Analysis and Effect Of Risk Management Techniques On Project Outcomes
In Development Sector: A Case Of NGOs & INGOs In Pakistan
Atif Habib & Sobia Rashid
91-105
Vol:2, No:4, 1-17, December, 2013
The Relatedness of Social Contract Theory in Understanding
the Rising Trends of Violent Revolution and Terrorism in
Developing Countries
Chigozie Enwere*
Abstract
The modern nation-states in their quest to bring into line the ideals of Neocapitalism to compliment democratic governance create socio-political conflicts.
Therefore, this study seeks to examine the conceptual relevance of Social Contract
theory in understanding the relationship between political absolutism and the
sudden rise of violent revolutions and regime change in developing countries.
The challenge facing developing countries is the adoption of Hobbes “Leviathan”
state structure in democratization process, resulting in multi-dimensional political
violence and revolution. In analyzing these variables, a historical-analytical
approach is used while qualitative tools are used in data collection and analysis.
The study reveals that the use of state terror by modern nation states in the
preservation of national security is a catalyst that drives terrorism and revolutions.
Therefore, increase in Hobbes political absolutism and states’ use of force brings
about a corresponding rise in terrorism and revolution. Similarly, the neglect of
economic aspect of Locke’s Social Contract theory in developing nations creates
poverty and corruption that stimulates the use of violence to correct perceived
inequalities and often overthrow governments. We conclude that the quest for
acquisition of private property through the adoption of Hobbes Leviathan state is
the catalyst that stimulates political violence in developing countries.
Key Words: Neo-Capitalism, Social Contract, Leviathan, Terrorism, Regime
Change.
Introduction
A specter is haunting Africa, the specter of political violence and terrorism, which
in recent years has troubled the minds of policy makers and occupied social
science inquiry and national security strategies and preparedness. This specter of
terrorism is a product of historical conditions and the tacit quest for systematic
transformation of the structures of the state as well as the modern institutions
of government which encourages strategic exclusion of the masses and the
hegemonic inclusion of the aristocratic elites in the allocation of economic values
and socio-political resources.
* Head of Department/ Lecturer, Department ofPolitical Science and International Relations, Nigeria
Turkish Nile University Abuja, Nigeria, +2348069786727, enweregozie@gmail.com or c.enwere@
ntnu.edu.ng
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Chigozie Enwere
However exclusive allocation of state resources has created structural
inequalities and class struggle in African states. The authoritarian elites like
the ‘Prince’ in Machiavelli’s thesis use state power to exploit and conquer the
people in order to maintain the hegemony and domination of ‘the haves’ over
the ‘have not’. They employ violence, falsehood, murder, terrorism, arrogance,
cruelty and fraud as elements of national security in their attempt to safe guard
the state against the use of reprisal violence by the ‘have not’ This has increased
the level of decadence and deception in the acts of governance and in the ideals
of national security postures.
However, in the event of political villainy and decadence in the maintenance
of national security and order, Thomas Hobbes encourages the people to change
such system of government while John Locke presses on the people to over
throw such government. For this reason, Karl Marx postulated that all history
is the history of class struggle aimed at overthrowing regimes, whose interest
is to promote and maintain inclusive exploitation. This straggle is reflected and
expressed between the Roman Lord and slave, medieval Lord and self, modern
bourgeoisie and proletariat or the few rich and extreme poor.
These struggles have destabilized and destroyed the postures of national
security and created doubts about the real intent of the objectives of national
security. Therefore, the history of nation-states is the history of class struggle,
expressed in terms of revolution, violence and terrorism which determine and
influences the strategies, posture and contextual goals of national security.
However, terrorism evolves within a social context which provides the framework
for violent struggle in the allocation of economic values in Nigeria, therefore
proper understanding of the decadence in national security and the dynamic
rise in international terrorism can be located in the negative attitudes and policy
actions of the elites in the allocation of values (Alabi, 2007;203).
Thus, the use of economic terrorism and structural violence by the Nigeria
political elites have daily denied the poor masses of their economic, social and
political rights and privileges, making Nigeria a viable theatre for the operations
and complexities of international terrorism, which led to the rise of extreme
terrorism in Niger Delta and Northern regions of Nigeria particularly in Yobe State.
Towns and villages have been bombed and destroyed by the state soldiers in their
bid to preserve national security and also by the insurgent groups in their quest
for self preservation in a society dominated by corruption, poverty, exploitation
and inequalities.
Therefore, this paper attempts to give a conceptual analysis and relationship
of the two variables, international terrorism and national security. The paper
will also examine the extent to which the neglect of the economic aspects of
national security and the introduction of Neo-classical liberalism in the core
2
The Relatedness of Social Contract Theory in Understanding the Rising Trends of Violent
Revolution and Terrorism in Developing Countries
policy of Nigerian economy has produce the tangible and intangible elements of
terrorism that threatens and influences the strategies, structures and dimensions
of Nigeria’s national security.
The Conceptual Discourse of Social Contract and Its Relevance in Understanding
Political Revolutions in Developing Countries
The Social Contract theory is associated with the names of three philosophers,
Thomas Hobbes, John Locke and Jean Jacques Rousseau. This theory depicts a
state of nature in which exists ethical dialectical struggle between terror and
mutual coexistence. This ethical struggle determines the dialectical balance
between the legitimacy of state and the loyalty of its citizens. Disequilibrium
occurs when the citizens withdraw their support and loyalty from the state
leading to the rise of terror and acts of terrorism. When the state maintains a
stable equilibrium between legitimacy and loyalty, national cohesion or collective
security is sustained and preserved.
The aim of this paper is to explore the theoretical connection between
terrorism and the inability of modern African states to put into practice the ideals
of Social Contract theory as well as to examine its consequences on national
security and order. This paper adopts a qualitative content analysis aimed at
locating the root causes of terrorism in the failure of developing countries to apply
the ideals of Social Contract theory in the organization and operations of modern
nation states. We, therefore, stress the importance of intuition, logical inquiry
and unobtrusive measures in analyzing the subjective variables of terrorism and
national security.
The essence of sovereignty and the hegemony of democratic values in the
institutional structures of modern states is an attempt to wrest a measure of
meaning, security, dignity and order from the cruelty, terror, brute violence and
hazard of existence in the state nature, which provides the structural frameworks
for the creation and organization of modern states. Therefore, to explain the
theoretical relationship between the preservation of national security in modern
states that allow the dynamics and terms of the social contract to determine its
institutional existence and in those states that violate the ideals of social contract,
we shall adopt a case study analysis.
In the Nigerian case, the Boko Haram terrorism and the Niger Delta violent
agitation for inclusion in the distribution of economic resources provides the
most appropriate framework for explaining the relationship that theoretically
exists between acts of terrorism and the failure of social contact in modern states.
The Dialectics of Social Contract Theory and Its Impact on the Rise of Violent
Revolutions in Developing Countries
The dialectics of Social Contract theory reveal the existence of terror in the state
3
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Chigozie Enwere
of nature which is the root cause of fear that official and unofficial violence will
someday, somehow lead to the complete breakdown of the political system
(Knauss and strickland, 1988:85). Therefore, beneath the surface of the political
order of modern states lurks the brutish state of nature which according to
Thomas Hobbes (1588 -1679) is a condition of a general disposition to war, terror
and brute violence of “every man against every man”. Force and terrorism flourish
in such state and consequently there is perpetual fear and strife. The insecurity
in the state of nature arises from the quest by each individual for his own selfish
interest. According to Hobbes, since men are basically equal in physical strength
and cunning; it is difficult for anyone to succeed. Therefore, people live in constant
fear of violent death and extreme acts of terrorism.
However, the fear of death and destructive acts of terror lead men to seek
for collective national security and order. A superior authority is therefore needed
to restrain men from the use of terror as an instrument of self preservation. A
social contract is designed to ensure that power is transferred to an absolute
authority or Leviathan. The Leviathan has absolute power to maintain national
security, order and peace as well as to preserve and strengthen the doctrine of
absolute state.
Therefore, Hobbies provides the theoretical framework on which the
concept of national security stands. Also, Umar (2000:46) argues that national
security entails the protection of the lives, rights, dignity and property of the
citizens as well as the resources, territory and sovereignty of a nation state. So,
Samai (1987:6), Umar’s conception of national security explains the extent to
which all the elements of power are used for the protection of national interest
through the absolute authority of state.
Since security is a multi dimensional concept, the concentric circle theory
sees national security as the defense of the state through the use of military
power and coercion (Mbachu, 2009: 63). From this theoretical viewpoint, Niccolo
Machiavelli (1469-1527) subscribes to Hobbes theory of absolute Leviathan.
He goes further to argue that the Leviathan which he described as the “Prince”
should always aim at conquering and maintaining security and order in the state.
In his view, the state should employ the use of terror, violence, murder, cruelty
and fraud in his quest to safeguard the national security of the state. Thus,
Machiavelli separates the concept of national security from morality, ethics,
religion and metaphysics.
Machiavelli insists that the state has its own anonymous values, which he
describes as political morality. This implies that the determination of a state’s
political conduct and security should not be influenced by an appeal to Christian
morality but to raison d’etate (reason of state). According to Machiavelli,
the morality of the state is the morality of success in defending itself and
4
The Relatedness of Social Contract Theory in Understanding the Rising Trends of Violent
Revolution and Terrorism in Developing Countries
guaranteeing national security by any means possible and not depending on
allies and mercenaries. Therefore, the Machiavelli’s theory of national security
is used to justify the use of state terrorism in maintaining order and peace by
modern nation states. This is the terror within terrorism, an extreme political
behavior in the panoply of national security.
However, modern states since after the end of the Cold War have adopted
coercive strategies as a means of national security. The use of coercive terror by
modern states is based on Hobbes proposition that the people reserve the right
to change any government that fails to maintain order and peace. Therefore, to
prevent the rise of violent revolution, modern states adopt Hobbes’s leviathan
approach in maintaining national security and order. This approach strengths the
doctrine of leviathan state and assigns to the state the duty of using authoritarian
or coercive powers in maintaining order and security for benefit of all citizens
(Anifowose and Enemuo, 2008: 71)
Adhering tacitly to Machiavelli and Hobbes’ security strategies, modern
nation-states have transformed their security policies from one centered on
ethically grounded structures to one based on power politics and interest
ambition (Michael, 1998:89). Reason of state has become a justification for the
use of force as instrument of power politics and unadorned domination. Without
monopoly of violence by the state and without a high probability that each act of
opposition by the people will be answered by a coercive sanction, chaos would
ensue and social order will collapse in the state.
Base on Hobbes and Machiavelli’s theoretical assumptions, the democratic
regimes in Nigeria, in her bid to consolidate the leviathan status of modern
Nigerian nation-state towards maintaining national security, used brute force and
terror against Mohammed Yusuf and his revolutionary Islamic movement known
as ‘Boko Haram’ whose primary intent is to overthrow the democratic government
and replace it with an Islamic regime. It is perfectly obvious that Boko Haram and
its acts of terrorism, according to this bankrupt view is a focused resistance to
the ‘Prince’ status of the Nigerian state as depicted in Hobbes theory. Drawing
inference from this viewpoint, many scholars argue that terrorism is effective
just insofar as it paralyses the leviathan status of the state and disorganizes its
intended victims and evokes fear or chaos in the political system. Therefore,
terrorism awakens the political class’s striving for a perfect monopoly of violence.
The political ruling class in their attempt to maintain its monopoly of violence
in the state describes the terrorist acts of Boko Haram as senseless violence carried
out by faceless individuals whose primary interest is to cause chaos, mayhem
and violent death. Another prescriptive assumption held by the ruling elites is
that Boko Haram members are ghosts. This conception of terrorists as ghosts
takes the form that only ghosts would resort to many of the actions that Boko
5
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Chigozie Enwere
Haram have undertaken. This implies that terrorism is the activities of ghosts. The
purpose of this myth is to deny Boko Haram insurgents any possible legitimacy
with the population, which they are trying to influence by their terrorist actions.
The waters of this myth become particularly murky, when the government
engages in terrorist activities. Through the use of its organized terror operations,
the state uses the police and the military to perpetrate acts of violence that
appear offensive to the population. Such acts of terror are carried out by Nigerian
soldiers not only on members of Boko Haram but also on the population to cow
them to expose the identity of the insurgents. The government justifies its acts
of terrorism in the name of promoting national security. When the same act is
perpetrated by insurgent terrorist groups, it is interpreted as a wanton criminal
activity of tactless ghosts or hoodlums.
However, increase in state terrorism as an instrument of national security
brings about a corresponding increase in terrorist activities of insurgent groups.
In fact, the terror within terrorism resides precisely in this symbiotic relationship
between national security and civil insurgence. The terrorists define their
behaviours either as a direct attack on regimes or as a demonstration to the
apathetic public that the rulers cannot protect them and ought to be repudiated;
thus, the compliant masses are confounded and frightened by this symbiotic
contradiction (Michael, 1988: 90). Also, the terrorists through their numerous
violent attacks seek to prove that the intuitive horror of the leviathan state cannot
help in preventing the political collapse of the system when confronted with acts
of extreme terrorism.
Drawing inference from classical theoretical assumption, the random acts
of Boko Haram terror can be classified as “propaganda of the deed” (Michael,
1988:92). Bombing, assassinations, kidnapping and demand for ransom by
insurgent groups in Nigeria are seen as covert means of showing the vulnerability
of the Nigerian State, dissatisfaction with the socio- economic inequalities and to
force the state to change its coercive character of organized terror as well as to
command publicity for the terrorist ideals.
The sudden demonstration of bombing and wanton destruction of human
and infrastructural resources by insurgent groups is to achieve the latent and
residual purpose of terror. Latent terror demonstrates the ability of Boko Haram
insurgents to arouse public opinion about the intended consequences of terrorist
attack. The tacit objective behind terrorism is to create fear and stimulate reactions
to explain the effects of anxiety in terror situations. By residual terror we mean
the fears people have of a recurrence of something that actually happened to
them. In Nigeria, where a large population lost parents and friends in Boko Haram
bombing, there is increased predisposition to anxiety compounded by residuum
and feelings of reoccurrence of random bombing.
6
The Relatedness of Social Contract Theory in Understanding the Rising Trends of Violent
Revolution and Terrorism in Developing Countries
So, the latent and residual elements of terrorism are aimed at increasing the
levels of tension, crisis, political degeneration and social disorganization in order
to put consistent pressures on the state to meet the demands of the terrorists and
reform the society for the benefits of all. This shows that it is only by collapsing
the social and political systems through acts of terrorism can the people restrain
the states from embracing Hobbes conception of calling the sovereign a monster
to adopting Aristotle’s organic conception of a just state, which provides the
collective framework for man to realize itself and achieve the highest good based
on social equity and justice.
Therefore, the absence of equity and justice in the allocation of values and
resources brought about by the inability of modern states to adhere to the values
and ideals of social contract theory is the root cause of rising waves of terrorism
in developing countries. John Locke repeatedly insists that the end of government
is the good of the state. He further posits that government should be more
constitutional and base its activities on rule of law. The powers of government
should remain limited and not absolute and be based on consent which may be
tacit rather than open.
In modern states of Africa particularly Nigeria, the government has tacitly
failed to conceive government as a trust but has ultimately located sovereignty
in the political elites rather than in the people. This has led to the rise of
authoritarianism under the guise of democracy. Following the ideals of Locke’s
social contract theory, the people legitimately revolt against the government
through various violent means in order to overthrow the government. Because
of the authoritarian nature of most governments in developing countries,
governance takes the form of repression, which compels the people to use acts
of terror to press for socio-political change. This explains the revolutions in Syria,
Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and the extreme acts of terror in Nigeria by Boko Haram,
wherein the people use violence as an instrument to overthrow governments
that have legitimacy crisis.
Analysis of Current Events of Boko Haram Terrorist Activities in Sub -Saharan
Africa
The Boko Haram revolutionary activities against the Nigerian state and its
institutions of government give rise to greater feelings of fear and exhilaration
in Sub-Saharan Africa. Its use of extreme terror and violence conjures up images
of destruction arising from reaction to the growing exploitative powers of
government and the increased influence of Western capitalism in Sub-Saharan
Africa. This has provided the cohesive force needed to unite the peasants to
revolt against the political elites who control the national wealth and means of
production, which sometimes supplies the emotive force for further fragmentation
of Nigerian society.
7
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Chigozie Enwere
The concept of revolution and the extensive use of terror to contain
the perceived influence of Western capitalism and its oligarchical system of
government in Sub-Saharan Africa have had a long history and has changed in
meaning several times. It first started during the colonial era when it referred to
the restoration of an old order of values as instituted by Usman Dan Fodiyo. The
revolutionary Mahdist composed of radical clerics, peasants and slaves sought to
overthrow the British colonial regimes and its exploitative system of capitalism.
This revolutionary resistance influenced the British colonial government to sign
a pact with the Northern protectorate that the European style of education and
value-system should not be implemented in the region and that indirect rule
should be adopted instead of direct imperial rule (Danjibo, 2009:10).
However, with the demise of colonialism in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Western
powers methodologically transferred political and economic powers of the
colonies to a selected group of elites under the direct control of international
capitalist actors. A new capitalist system was reproduced in new states of SubSaharan Africa. These new independent states were also exploitative and parasitic
with oligarchic leviathan political structures. The strategic inflow of unregulated
capitalism into African societies created individualism, selfishness, poverty and
new class of private property owners.
The new economic system allowed people with money to govern, thereby
subjugating all state resources for promotion of personal prestige and self
interest. Therefore, in the early 1980s, the Maitatsine uprising in Northern
Nigeria developed as a protest against the harsh economic exploitation of raw
capitalism and hegemonic influence of Western Values that contradict traditional
Islamic values. According to Muhammadu Marwa, the Maitatsine uprising was
inspired by the contradictions inherent in the institutional structures of secular
state (Danjibo, 2009:13). The Maitatsine uprising polarized the struggle against
the state and its institutions of exploitation.
Two revolutionary groups emerged to strengthen agitation against the
continued existence of secular state in Nigeria. These groups were the Society
for Removal of Innovation and Re-establishment of Sunnah founded in Jos in
1978 known as “Izala” and the Islamic Movement of Nigeria a Shite movement
led by Ibrahim El-Zakzaky. Rooted in these uprisings were the quest to change
the institutions OF the state and elimination of government which they
regarded as the product of international capitalism. These large scales uprising
by individualistic Islamic fundamentalists motivated Boko Haram to seek more
popular revolt against the government to agitate for a new social organization
based on Islamic values. So, Boko Haram sees government as an impediment to
human progress which is to eliminated either in part or even completely (Eme
and Jide, 2012:14-35).
8
The Relatedness of Social Contract Theory in Understanding the Rising Trends of Violent
Revolution and Terrorism in Developing Countries
Agreeing that government should be limited, Boko Haram tend to wage
war against the Nigerian state based on the perception that Nigerian politics and
economy has been annexed and controlled by corrupt elites and Western Values,
which has produced ostensible corruption, poverty, concentration of wealth into
the hands of the few, unemployment, centralization of power in the state and the
continued suppression of “true” Islam in Sub-Saharan Africa (Onuoha, 2012:2). In
their quest to overthrow the state they propagate anti state ideology and called
on Muslims to breakdown the state’s monopoly of power by a lessening of the
habit of obedience through the use of extreme terror or acts of violence (Eme
and Onyishi, 2011:51-67). Therefore, Walker (2012:2) argues that the lessening
of obedience will erode the myths of the state, which will act as a catalyst for the
destruction of the Nigerian state and creation of a new Islamic state organized
under Islamic laws and value system. Thus, Boko Haram started is armed rebellion
against the Nigerian state in July 26, 2009 in Bauchi state (Simeon, 2012:46-53).
However its use of violence in Bauchi state has been transfigured into
terrorism which has spread over Nigeria and its neighbouring Sub-Saharan African
countries. As presented in table 1 below, different methods of acts of terrorism
were employed by Boko Haram from 2009-2014 with different degree of success
in terms of casualties.
Table 1: Types of Terror Attacks and Frequency Distribution 2009-2012
Types of Assault/Attacks
Frequency
%age
Armed Attacks
23
2.12
Bombing and Explosions
39
36.1
Midnight/ Terror Attacks
8
7.4
Mass Murder/ Suicide Raid
12
11.1
Assassination Murder Beheading
15
13.8
Abduction/Kidnapping
7
7.5
Jailbreaks
Total
4
3.7
108 attacks
100%
Source: British Journal of Arts and Social Sciences, Vol.17 No 1 (2014)
Table 1 presents the analysis of the nature and types of terrorist attack
typical of Boko Haram as well as the frequency in percentage occurrence. It is
obvious that Boko Haram uses Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) to carry out
its acts of terror and violence which represents 35.8% of their various methods
of destruction of human lives (Akinfala, Akinbode and Kemmer, 2014:115-132).
Other methods of terrorist attacks employed by Boko Haram include armed attack
representing 20.7%, assassination, murder and beheading 14.2%, abduction
and kidnapping 6.7%, mass murder and suicide bombing 11.3% while jail break
represents only 3.8%.
9
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Chigozie Enwere
In order to examine the number of terror attacks and casualties, Akinfole,
Akinbode and Kemmer (2014: 132-133) computed the frequencies of
concurrencies as presented in the table below.
Table 2: Number of Reported Terror Attacks in Frequencies in Fatality
Years In
Retrospect
No’s of
reported
Armed Attacks in Frequencies
Number of
people Reportedly Killed
(Estimated in
Hundredth)
Number of People Displaced
(Estimated in
Hundredth)
Number of People Displaced
(Estimated in
Hundredth)
Number of Properties Destroyed (Estimated in
Hundredth)
2009
4
Not less than
444
Over 167
Over 321
Not less than 15
buildings
2010
10
Not less than
600
Over 356
Over 459
Not less than 30
buildings
Over 50 buildings
2011
Not less than
481
2012
37
Not less than
559
Over 519
Over 423
Over 26 cars
2013
15
Not less than
511
Over 708
Over 3,080
Over 999 buildings and 10 cars
raised
Over 273
Over 150
Over 12 churches
Over 12 cars
Source: British Journal of Arts and Social Sciences, Vol.17 No 1 (2014)
The above table 2 represents the incidence of terrorist attacks by Boko
Haram in Nigeria, in 2009 there were four terrorist attacks, 2010, 10 attacks;
2011, 43 attacks; 2012, 37 attacks; 2013, 15 attacks while as at June 2014 there
are over 20 terrorist attacks including the kidnapping of over 250 girls from
Government Secondary School Chibok and another 20 young ladies (Akinfala,
Akinbode and Kemmer, 2014:133). Increase in the number of attacks brings about
a proportionate increase in the number of deaths, injured as well as displaced
people, which invariably puts extensive pressures on the government.
As the Boko Haram terrorist activities increases, the intensity of pressures
and criticisms against the government also increases. In order to suppress the
terrorists, the government adopts the Hobbesian strategy of dictatorial force to
restore security and order as well as to preserve the sovereign power of state
and its monopoly of violence. To this extent, the government see Boko Haram as
a ghost which must be unmasked and destroyed through military brutality and
state terror. This strategy demands increase in military budget expenditure.
Against this background, billions of Naira has been allocated for security in
the country. Security has taken the lion share of national budgetary allocations
because of the threat of Boko Haram, Niger Delta Militants and rising spate of
10
The Relatedness of Social Contract Theory in Understanding the Rising Trends of Violent
Revolution and Terrorism in Developing Countries
insecurity and wanton destruction of lives and property. In 2012, the government
proposed N 4.7 trillion budget, representing 6% increase over 2011 budget. In
2013, the government spent a total of N 1.055 trillion representing an increase of
N135 billion over what was appropriated in 2012. A breakdown of 2013 budget
shows that defence received N 349 billion, police formations N311.1 billion,
police affairs N8.5 billion, interior N156.1 billion and office of the national security
adviser 116.4 billion. Budget allocation for security and defense from 2008-2014
are represented as follows: 2008, N 444.6 billion; 2009, N 233 billion; 2010, N264
billion; N 2011, 348 billion; 2012, N921.91 billion; 2013, N 1.055 trillion and in
2014, N 968.127 billion representing 20% of the budget (Eme and Anyadike,
2013:23-24).
Despite, the astronomical increase in military expenditure and spending,
yet it remains insufficient for military operations to contain rising tides of violent
insurgencies and attacks. These have adverse effects on the socio-economic
and political development of Nigeria and its neighbouring Sub-Saharan states.
For this reason, a case has been made that terrorism is a serious impediment
to sustainable development, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and this is not
only prevalent in Nigeria, but has proliferated since the collapse of Soviet Union
and demise of international socialism. So, one of the greatest challenges of
governments in Sub-Saharan region is how to develop capacity and strategies
to contain the sudden rise of violent insurgencies which is gradually eroding the
powers of the state.
Therefore, William Kornhauser’s conservative theory of revolution offers
the necessary explanation about the origin of Boko Haram and why terrorism
took hold of Nigeria and its current proliferation in Sub-Saharan Africa. The main
position of this article is that the reintroduction of democracy and its elements of
sham elections, corruption and godfather syndrome has caused too much social
mobility into the ruling elite class. Such rapid social mobility causes a breakdown
of traditional, social and religious values in Sub-Saharan Africa which lead to
growth of anomic groups like Boko Haram and the development of corrosive
philosophies that “Western education is sacrilege”. So, the name Boko Haram is
derived from the Hausa word for book which means “Boko” and the Arabic word
“Haram” which designates those things which are forbidden or sinful (Adagba,
Ugwu and Eme, 2012:100).
According to Kornhauser, revolutionary behaviour or extreme acts of
terrorism occurs when rapid change causes individuals to be uprooted social
class ties and those individuals become more responsive either to form or join
mass movements, as the case of Mohammed Yusuf shows. Before he joined the
Boko Haram sect which was originally led by Abubakar Lawan, he attended the
University of Medina (Simeon, 2012:32-45). Being uprooted from the elite class
11
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Chigozie Enwere
he began to promote corrosive Islamic teachings and philosophies which he used
to manipulate the minds of the peasants and the unemployed people to form a
mass terrorist movement. The binding cord of this movement is the collective
feelings of frustrations shared by the members, who see government as a tool of
exploitation and an evil leviathan that promotes the interests of the ruling elite.
Therefore the Boko Haram mass terrorist movement also contains individuals
who have been alienated from society because of the rapid movements through
the stratification system and consequently lost their links with their own social
class. Such rapid social alienation was created by the progressive removal of fuel
subsidy by the ruling class. The cost of living had risen and manual labourers
and peasants were hit by unemployment while white collar workers and
professionals probably more by inflation that unemployment. Meanwhile the
number of political class millionaires has increased since the reintroduction of
democratic institutions in Nigeria. The frustration exacerbated by these factors
united the peasants in Northern Nigeria to violently revolt against the state and
its institutions of government. Finally, too much mobility into the ruling elite class
has caused the weakening of its internal cohesion which leaves the elite class less
exclusively based on a particular ideology. The weakness of the elite class in subSaharan Africa lead to in-fighting within the elite and for this reason the ruling
elite can no longer present a united front to contain terrorism, thereby making
the Boko Haram insurgent movement to have more like hood of success.
The Implications of Theory of Neo-liberalism, Economic Deprivation and
Exclusionism on the Escalation of Terrorism in Developing Countries.
This section will explain how the structural implementation of Neo-liberal
economic policies and the neglect of economic aspects of national security
provide the catalyst for the escalation of terrorism in developing African nations.
Terrorism as a tactic that involves the use of unpredictable violence to induce fear
was introduced into African politics by the colonial powers. The European colonial
administrators used organized terror as a strategy to maintain the structures
of the new colonial states, which was imposed on African nations during the
partition of African territories in the Berlin Conference of 1885. This assumption
provides the conceptual premise to correct the historical error that terrorism was
an integral part of African political system and culture.
However, African countries do provide a variety of contexts within which to
qualitatively assess the impact of social conflicts of capitalism. It was the Europeans
who created “Leviathan” nation states in Africa and systematically introduced
these states into the international capitalist system guided by conservative
economic ideology of Neo-liberalism. European intrusion into African politicoeconomic systems destroyed the political, economic and national security
structures that exited in pre-colonial African nation states and tacitly replaced
12
The Relatedness of Social Contract Theory in Understanding the Rising Trends of Violent
Revolution and Terrorism in Developing Countries
it with a new political and national security framework that are dependent on
European states, weapons and strategies. This has created a political, economic
and security dilemma in Africa because both the terrorist groups and the state
get their military weapons from the same source in Europe. Hence, both the
government and the insurgent groups have acquired parity in destructive power
capability, making it difficult for the states to contain the destructive power
potentials of the terrorists.
Therefore, the current waves of terrorism in modern African states is a direct
consequence of global capitalist contradictions and social conflicts introduced
into Africa by international finance capital through the implementation of neoliberal economic reforms. For this reason, colonialism was used as a strategic
instrument by the European capitalist powers to export the social conflicts and
contradictions of European capitalism to Africa. The success of this policy can be
seen in the ever widening gap between the rich and the poor in African states.
The social conflicts of capitalism become very high in Europe before and
after the end of the World War II. During this period in Europe, there was a great
gulf between the few rich and many poor as well as mass unemployment and
many low level standard of living. These economic contradictions provided the
empirical factors that triggered of violent protests in Europe and America in the
1960s. The reason for the escalation of social conflicts and violence in the post
war period is linked with the struggle between the capitalists and the workers
over the distribution of the surplus profits make from the colonies.
However, from the end of the nineteenth century onwards, colonies had
been regarded as a source of wealth which could be used to mitigate the class
conflicts in the capitalist states of Europe but this metropolitan policy failed
in its ultimate object because the pre–war capitalist states were so organized
internally that the bulk of the profits made from colonial possessions and
explorative trade activities found its way into the pockets of the capitalist class
and not into those of the works. This created feelings of extreme frustration
that increased tremendously the context and dimensions of aggressive behaviors
leading to corresponding increase in social conflicts and violence in Europe
(Nkrumah, 1965:9-20).Therefore, irrespective of what particular political party
was in power, the internal pressures of social conflicts and violence in Europe
and America were such that no capitalist country can survive solely relying on the
ideology of classical economic liberalism, unless it became a welfare state guided
by Keynesian modern economic liberalism that maximizes the strategic role of
government in stimulating economic activities and development.
Above all, the post–war global capitalism inaugurated a well articulated
colonial policy that paid a more serious attention to exploiting African resources,
generally to finance the welfare state in Europe. In doing this, Europe through
13
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Chigozie Enwere
the instrumentality of colonialism forcibly imposed the ideology of conservative
classical economic liberalism on African states which created more opportunities
for European and American finance capital to dominate African investment and
market. Because of the explorative nature of conservative classical liberalism,
African economic system is strategically controlled by global capitalism directed
from London and New York. This strategic control of African economy by the
metropolis created mass unemployment, poverty, low living standard and a great
exploitable gap between the few rich and many poor. Therefore, this post World
War II economic liberal strategy provided the first framework for the kickoff of
terrorism in Africa because through colonialism and neo colonialism, European
capitalist introduced structural violence in Africa.
Therefore, under the guise of democracy, global capitalists introduced and
deepen authoritarianism in African states, using structural violence like mass
unemployment and poverty to redirect the minds of African peoples from the
Locke’s theoretical proposition of revolution. According to Locke, if a government
does not promote the general good of its citizens or if it does not rest on their
consent, such a government should be legitimately overthrown (Anifowose and
Enemuo, 2008:72).
Since the primary object of global capitalism is to achieve and maintain
European domination over developing countries, a coercive apparatus of police
and military forces were created in Africa during the colonial period and are
sustained by the political elites in the contemporary era to suppress the political
will of the people to revolt against the values and operations of international
capitalism. The coercive nature of colonial police and military forces contributed
to the creation of an authoritarian political environment that is carried over into
the contemporary globalization era in Africa characterized by pseudo democratic
values and government, leading to inequitable distributions of social and
economic goods (Schraeder,2004:69).
Galtung proposes that violence is present when human beings are being
influenced so that their actual somatic and mental realizations are below their
potential realization (Galtung, 1969:168). Such structural gap between somatic
realization and potential realization triggers off structural violence which many
view as regime terror. Such structural terror may be the result of system level
phenomena which provides the socio–political frame work for possible anti state
terror posing great challenges to national security.
Inequality and its implication of economic deprivation are recognized widely
as sources for anti state violence or terrorism. Such perceptions according to
Denmark and Welfing can develop in a variety of circumstances (Denemark
and Welfing, 1988:449). Awareness that one possessed less of a certain value
than one did previously, less than does some reference group or less than one
14
The Relatedness of Social Contract Theory in Understanding the Rising Trends of Violent
Revolution and Terrorism in Developing Countries
does some other value are some of the circumstances that might lead to civil
insurgence or acts of terror. For example, one might be economically equal but
not permitted political expression or vice versa and such perceived deprivation
can lead to resentment against the political system, creating the impression that
only violence or acts of terror could be used to correct the perceived injustice or
economic deprivation. Hence, terror is used against the state and its institutions
of governance. This conceptual assumption provides the context in which to
analyze the Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria.
Moreover, the impositions of the European nation – state system on
developing countries during the period of colonization have created series of
artificial states. Some of these states were products of subjugation or division
of existing pre-colonial nations among several states (for example Somali nation
divided among Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibonti). Other states were products of
incorporation of several African nations into one state as the case of Nigeria
where three nations Igbo, Yoruba and Hausa/Funali were fused together to form
one state (Schraeder, 2004:62). This shows that the creation of African states by
Europe is an aberration of the social contract theory and did not evolve gradually
according to the wishes of African peoples.
Therefore, because of these structural weakness and identity crisis, the
modern African nation–states use force to maintain national security and also
preserve the operations of global capitalism in Africa. So, in the absence of a
contract relationship between the state and the people, the citizens are more
likely to use terrorism as an instrument of power especially where resistance by
the government is high. State domination is not a relationship likely to appeal
to the majority of the politically dominated and economically exploited class;
therefore, the state would be likely to have terror at hand, if not in constant use.
Fanon supports this theoretical assumption and perceives force as one of the
major pillars upon which the maintenance of an exploitative state depends. This
becomes obvious especially in periods of resistance by the people particularly on
issues of deprivation, poverty, mass unemployment and exploitation. In response
to such civil resistance, the agents of government (the police and the military)
speak the language of pure terror. This line of reasoning and action escalates the
level of reappraisal attacks by the deprived individuals or insurgent groups. Hence
terrorism serves as a prop of power relations in modern African states.
In this paper, a number of factors have been discussed as explanation for the
terrorism that was inherited from European colonial rule and which still haunts
Africa in this contemporary globalization era. The primary feature of modern
African nation states that are contrary to the tenets of social contract theory is
the excessive use state violence or terrorism to maintain its hegemonic influence
over all citizens. Under the guise of maintaining national security, such coercive
15
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Chigozie Enwere
powers are used to tacitly protect the interest and investment the global capitalist
actors and its system of economic exclusion.
However, such unrestricted capitalist system and governance foster
responses of terrorism. The harsher the system of economic deprivation and
the longer it attempts to hold on, the more prevalent terror and counter terror
are likely to become, creating destabilizing threat to national security. Thus,
political exclusion, social inequalities and economic deprivations are primary
sources of terrorism in modern African nation states. The case studies of Boko
Haram in Nigeria and violent revolutions in Libya, Egypt, Syria and Mali point to
the primacy of political repression and economic exclusion as the root cause of
violent opposition and high level acts of terrorism..
Conclusion
In this paper, an attempt was made to analyze the Social Contract theory and its
relationship in understanding the covert and overt cause of terror which constitute
the greatest challenge to national security. This paper gave a conceptual analysis
of how economic exclusion, deprivation and unrestricted global capitalism act
as catalysts that structurally stimulate domestic and international terrorism.
Therefore, the study identifies that the contemporary African nation – states
was a creation of colonialism, which forcibly divided pre-colonial African nations
among several countries or incorporated several African nations into one state.
This created violent irredentism, political exclusion, social inequalities and
economic marginalization that provide the structural catalysts for terrorism and
violent struggle in developing nations.
The contemporary African states did not evolve gradually according to
the wishes of the people, contrary to the tents of the Social Contract theory.
Therefore, in order to maintain the state, the new crops of political elites use
extreme coercion and terror, which also fosters responses or acts of terrorism
from the people, posing great dangers to national security. Hence, terrorism is
most often used as an instrument of interest articulation by individuals or as a
means to emancipate them from the exploitation of global capitalism.
16
The Relatedness of Social Contract Theory in Understanding the Rising Trends of Violent
Revolution and Terrorism in Developing Countries
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AKINFALA F.F, AKINBODE G.A and KEMMER I, (2014), “Boko Haram and Terrorism
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ALABİ, David (2007) “Terrorism in Nigeria: implications for National security and
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ANİFOWOSE Remi and ENEMOU F, (2008), Elements of Politics, Sam Iroanusi Publications, Lagos.
DANJİBO N.D, (2009), “Islamic Foundamentalism and Sectarian Violence: The
Maitatsine and Boko Haram Crises in Northern Nigeria”, Peace and Conflict Studies Paper Series, Institute of African Studies, University of Ibadan.
DENEMARK Robert and WELFING M. (1988), “Terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa”,
in The Politics of Terrorism by Michael Stohl, Marcel Dekker Inc, New York.
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GALTING Johan (1969), “Violence, Peace and Research”, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 6 No. 3.
KNAUSS Peter and STRICKLAND D .A. (1988), “Political Disintegration and Latent
Terror”, in The Politics of Terrorism, by Michael Stohl, Marcel Dekker Inc,
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MBACHU Ozoemenam, (2009), Democracy and National Security, Medusa Academic Publisher, Kaduna.
NKRUMAH Kwame (1965), Neo-Colonialism, Panaf Books, London.
ONUOHA F.C, (2012), “Boko Haram: Nigeria’s Extremist Islamic Sect”, Aljazeera
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17
Vol:2, No:4, 19-37, December, 2013
Democratization in the Balkans: Evaluating the Criteria of
Electoral Process
Salih Özcan*
Gloria Shkurti**
Abstract
This research aims to analyze the democratization process in the Balkans, focusing
more in the conduction of elections. Since the fall of the authoritarian regimes
in the Balkans, there has started the process of democratization. Even why the
transition to democracy is not conducted properly, the Balkans has now entered
in the consolidation of democracy phase. By many scholars, democratization
process in the Balkan region is considered very slow and complex at the same
time.
It must be embedded in mind that the process of democratization in itself
is very broad and includes many sub-processes such as elections, rule of law,
freedom of expression, associational autonomy, etc. For the sake of this paper,
it will be focused on the electoral process and the conduction of free, fair
and frequent elections in the Balkans states. By Balkan states in this research
are meant: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia,
Montenegro, Romania and Serbia. Accordingly, the paper will present a general
picture with the main challenges in regard to the conduct of elections. The study
will be concluded with a short comparison between these states.
Keywords: democratization, the Balkans, electoral process, challenges
Balkanlar’da Demokratikleşme: Seçim Süreci Kriterlerinin
Değerlendirilmesi
Özet
Bu çalışma, Balkanlarda demokratikleşme sürecini özellikle seçimlerin
yapılışına odaklanarak incelemeyi amaçlar. Balkanlarda otoriter rejimlerin
yıkılmasıyla demokratikleşme sureci başladı. Demokrasiye dönüşüm tam olarak
gerçekleşmemiş olsa da balkanlarda demokrasinin sağlamlaştırılması aşamasına
geçildi. Birçok bilim adamı balkanlardaki demokratikleşmeyi çok yavaş ve aynı
zamanda karmaşık olarak değerlendirmektedir.
* Assist. Prof.Dr., Department of Political Science & International Relations, Epoka University, Tirana,
Albania
** Bachelor of Arts, Master student at Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Salih Özcan & Gloria Shkurti
Şu nokta önemle belirtilmelidir ki demokratikleşme süreci kavram olarak çok
geniş olup seçimler, hukukun üstünlüğü, ifade özgürlüğü, kurumsal özerklik gibi
birçok alt süreci de kapsamaktadır. Bu çalışmanın kapsamı Balkan ülkelerindeki
seçim süreçleri ve özgür, eşit ve düzenli seçimlerin yapılması olarak belirlenmiştir.
Balkan ülkeleri olarak bu çalışmada incelenecek ülkeler şunlardır: Arnavutluk,
Bosna -Hersek, Bulgaristan, Hırvatistan, Makedonya, Karadağ, Romanya ve
Sırbistan. Bu bağlamda seçimlerin yapılışında karşılaşılan zorluklar ele alınacak
ve çalışma bu ülkelerdeki seçim süreçleriyle ilgili bazı karşılaştırmalar yapılarak
tamamlanacaktır.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Demokratikleşme, Balkanlar, Seçim süreçleri
Introduction
As the Cold War came to an end, communism followed the same destiny. For
many years people used to live under the yoke of Soviet Union or Yugoslavia. As
a result many communist and dictatorial states became part of the “third wave of
democratization” as Samuel P. Huntington has depicted. According to Huntington
the democratization is a process that the authoritarian regimes undergo in their
path of becoming a consolidated democracy (Huntington, 1991: 15). It may
be assessed that the Balkans is part of this third wave of democratization. In
general the ex-communist countries such as Albania, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina,
Montenegro or Macedonia seem to go in a secure path toward the consolidation
of democracy, yet there is much to do in this regard.
Nowadays all the ex-communist Balkan states are moving toward
democratization with very different speed. According to Ivan Krastev, the
Chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, the main problem in the
Balkans is that there are democratic states but not sovereign ones. At the same
time political change and democratization has not yet evolved in the way it was
expected.
As Schaffer (1997) claimed, Karl (1986) and Ottaway (1993), among others,
have recognized that “many countries have adopted the formal institutions of
democracy without having become more democratic in substance” (Schaffer,
1997: 40) and the Balkans can be considered as an adequate example where most
of the states have not reached to the finish line of the democratization process
but all of their institutions are created on bases of democracy.
Democratization
It is rumored that a Chinese student at the 1989 Tiananmen Square democracy
rally held a poster that read, “I don’t know what democracy means, but I know
we need more of it.” (Diamond & Plattner, 2008: 2).
20
Democratization in the Balkans: Evaluating the Criteria of Electoral Process
Robert A. Dahl considers democracy as an ancient form of government,
emerging since the hunter and gatherers period (Dahl, 1989: 232). Later on
time, during ancient Greece and Rome it started to evolve even more, in a more
complex way. At this time many principles of democracy, such as representation
and voting were consolidated. Such principles have remained the main pillars of
today’s democracy.
Democracy for a long time has being used as the political currency of the
whole world. Especially after the fall of the communist regimes in Central and
Eastern Europe and in former USSR, democracy has been considered as the
best possible form of government. Fukuyama argued that liberal democracy
“conquered rival ideologies like hereditary monarchy, fascism and most recently
communism” and it “may constitute…the final form of human government”
(Fukuyama, 1992: xi).
Somehow in the people mind, democracy started to be equivalent with
freedom and a better way of life (Schmitter & Karl, 1991: 67). This effect is
not only for the people, but even the states themselves seem to be “obliged”
to follow the domino effect of democratization. The non-democratic states,
after perceiving the successes of democratic states, seek to imitate their path
(Gaubatz, 1996: 138).
Based on the so called procedural approach to democracy, more importance
is given to the process of democratization rather than to democracy as the
outcome of this process. Proceduralists emphasize the fair process for making
decisions and at the same time defend majority rule (Colón-Rios, 2009: 3).
According to Rustow, “the factors that keep a democracy stable may not be the
ones that brought it into existence: explanations of democracy must distinguish
between function and genesis” (Rustow, 1970: 346). Furthermore Rustow
explained the third wave of democratization through the transition from the
communist regime towards consolidation of democracy. Similar path will also be
followed in this study.
For the purposes of this paper, clear definitions of democracy, democratization
process and its main elements should be given. There are many and various
definitions of democracy and ongoing long-debated thoughts about the features
and characteristics of democracy. Being a broad concept, where everyone may
have different perceptions Bernard Crick claims that “democracy is perhaps the
most promiscuous word in the world of public affairs” (Heywood, 2007: 72; 2013:
89). As Laza Kekic has also stated that “[t]here is no consensus on how to measure
democracy, definitions of democracy are contested and there is an ongoing lively
debate on the subject” (Kekic, 2007: 1).
Furthermore, Michael J. Sodaro (2004) outlines the notion of democracy
and its essence as follows:
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Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Salih Özcan & Gloria Shkurti
The essential idea of democracy is that the people have the right to
determine who governs them. In most cases they elect the principal
governing officials and hold them accountable for their actions.
Democracies also impose legal limits on the government’s authority by
guaranteeing certain rights and freedoms to their citizens (Sodaro, 2004:
31).
In this paper the main definiton for democracy will be considered as ‘a form
of government in which power and civic responsibility are exercised by all adult
citizens, directly or indirectly through their freely elected representatives’ (US
Department of State (n.d.): 4).
Like in the case of defining democracy, different scholars give different
definitions in regard to democratization. The Concise Oxford Dictionary of Politics
defines democratization simply as “the process of becoming a democracy”. “The
word [democratization] was first used by [James] Bryce in 1888. Bryce identified
the process as beginning with the French revolution” (Oxford University, 2009:
144). Even why this may be a very concise definition, it leaves a lot of gaps in
understanding the process in itself. Another definition of democratization is given
in the book “Democratization”: “The word ‘democratization’ refers to political
changes moving in a democratic direction” (Potter, Goldblatt, Kiloh, & Lewis, 1997:
3). Furthermore, Samarasinghe (1994) defines democratization “as a process of
political change that moves the political system of any given society towards a
system of government that ensures peaceful competitive political participation in
an environment that guarantees political and civil liberties” (Samarasinghe, 1994:
14). Hence the second definition dives a better explanation of what is the process
of democratization, this paper will have it as its basis.
The process of democratization includes both the transition to democracy
and the consolidation of democracy. Furthermore, many scholars subdivide the
democratization into three stages: (i) the liberalization stage, (ii) the transition
stage, (iii) the consolidation stage (Linz & Stepan, 1996) (O’Donnell & Schmitter,
1986). The liberalization stage is related with the fall of the authoritarian regime.
In the case of the Balkans it is related directly with the fall of the communist
regimes. The second stage that of transition, is considered to be the period
between the fall of the authoritarian regime until the first free, fair and competitive
elections are held. Lastly, the consolidation stage is related with the democratic
practices that must be followed by the regime. It must be emphasized that not
all the states undergo the stage of consolidation. Unfortunately, there may be
found many cases such as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Macedonia,
etc. that seems to be “stuck” in between the transition and consolidation period.
In other words these are called as hybrid regimes or unconsolidated democracies.
The last stage of democratization is the consolidation of democracy (Linz and
22
Democratization in the Balkans: Evaluating the Criteria of Electoral Process
Stepan, 1996; O’Donnell and Schmitter, 1986; Sorensen, 2010: 445). This research
will specifically focus on this stage of democratization. This stage is also the most
difficult one to be discussed because of the broad elements of democracy. Robert
Dahl, in his book On Democracy, sets 6 main elements of democracy:
1. Elected officials
2. Free, fair, and frequent elections
3. Freedom of expression
4. Alternative sources of information
5. Associational autonomy
6. Inclusive citizenship (Dahl, 2000: 85)
Elements of democracy are set differently by Linz and Stepan in their article
“Toward Consolidated Democracies”. According to them, there are five conditions
that must be present for a democracy to be consolidated: (i) development of a
free and lively civil society, (ii) autonomous political society, (iii) rule of law, (iv)
bureaucracy, (v) institutionalized economic society (Linz and Stepan, 1996: 2).
Moreover, there are other organizations such as Freedom House and
Democracy Reporting International that through their reports they analyze the
democratization process in the world. Both of these organizations have some
main elements or criteria which they use in the basis for the “measurement”
of democratization. In the case of Freedom House, in its “Nations in Transit”
reports which focus on six criteria: (i) National democratic governance, (ii)
Electoral process, (iii) Civil society, (iv) Independent media, (v) Local democratic
Governance, (vi) Judicial framework and independence, (vii) Corruption (Freedom
House, 2012).
Additionally, Michael Meyer-Resende of Democracy Reporting International
(DRI) wrote in his report “International Consensus: Essential Elements of
Democracy”, that there may be considered seven main elements of democracy:
(i) The separation and balance of power, (ii) Independence of the judiciary, (iii)
A pluralist system of political parties and organizations, (iv) The rule of law, (v)
Accountability and transparency, (vi) Freedom of the media, and (vii) Respect for
political rights (Meyer-Resende, 2011: 5).
There are many other scholars that have analyzed the main elements of
democracy; however it may be said that more or less they are all similar. Mostly
they may differ from the way how they define the elements but in context and
essence they remain the same. For the purpose of this research, only one main
element of democratization will be analyzed in regard to the Balkan states: Free,
fair and frequent elections. On basis of these criteria the paper will attempt to
analyze how the Balkan states are moving in their paths toward the consolidation
of democracy.
23
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Salih Özcan & Gloria Shkurti
Free, Fair and Frequent Elections
Elections are one of the core elements of democracy and thus may be considered
as an essential component of the consolidation of democracy for a country. As
Reilly stated “[e]lections thus provide a means for jump-starting a new, postconflict political order; for stimulating the development of democratic politics; for
choosing representatives; for forming governments; and for conferring legitimacy
upon the new political order”(Reilly, 2002: 118). As cited by Sorensen, Robert
Dahl says that “Free and fair elections are the culmination of the [democratic
process], not the beginning”. Georg Sorensen highlights that ““Good” elections
are as much (or even more) about what happens in the preparation leading up to
the event as about the political process after the event.” (Sorensen, 2010: 446).
For many Balkan states, still ensuring the free, fair and frequent elections
remains as a big challenge. In this research, the most essential criteria for the
free and fair elections will be considered based on the standards for democratic
elections formulated in the 1990 OSCE1 Copenhagen Document as “free elections
that will be held at reasonable intervals by secret ballot or by equivalent free
voting procedure, under conditions which ensure in practice the free expression
of the opinion of the electors in the choice of their representatives” (OSCE, 1990:
3).
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is composed of
572 states in order to promote human rights, democracy and rule of law. Moreover
these states agreed on the creation of the Office for Democratic Institutions
and Human Rights (ODIHR) in order to help them in promotion of OSCE aims,
especially in terms of elections (OSCE/ODIHR, 2010a: 7). The official OSCE web
describes functions and aims of ODIHR as follows:
Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) provides
support, assistance and expertise to participating States and civil society
to promote democracy, rule of law, human rights and tolerance and nondiscrimination. ODIHR observes elections, reviews legislation and advises
governments on how to develop and sustain democratic institutions
(emphasis added) (OSCE, 2014).
As part of its main functions ODIHR monitors elections in the OSCE region
(before, during and after the election days). On bases of these observations it
publishes regular reports to share the findings and to offer advice for improvement
in the following elections. As truly stated in one of the report “A long-term,
comprehensive, consistent and systematic election observation methodology has
1 OSCE: Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Within OSCE region currently there are
57 participating States from Europe, Central Asia and North America. The list of OSCE States can be
found at http://www.osce.org/who/108218
2 In the report released by OSCE/ODIHR in 2010 there are 56 members states of OSCE, but according
to the latest data, as stated in the previous footnote, there are 57 member states.
24
Democratization in the Balkans: Evaluating the Criteria of Electoral Process
become the bedrock of ODIHR’s credibility in this field” (OSCE/ODIHR, 2010a: 8).
Therefore, to conduct proper analyses of elections in all of the following Balkan
states, the elections reports of OSCE/ODIHR are greatly being used and analyzed
as well as an attempt is being made to have a picture of the main flaws in terms
of the electoral process.
Albania
In Albania parliamentary and the local elections, based on the Albanian
Constitution of 1998, are held every four years. Approximately 22 years after the
first free elections conducted in Albania, there have been held seven parliamentary
elections and six local elections. In other words it means that elections have been
held regularly and frequently in Albania. Based on the reports from OSCE from
1996 until 2011 there have been progress in terms of campaign, media and the
Electoral Law, but still there is a lot to be done. In the parliamentary elections
that were held in May/June 1996 the TV campaign was limited and the proper
education to the citizens about the voting system was not given (OSCE, 1990:
7). Later on in 1997 the media started to play a more significant role, to end
up in 2011 with a biased media (OSCE/ODIHR, 2011a: 16). In terms of electoral
campaign there have been some improvements because in 1996 the opposition
party was not allowed to hold outdoor meetings (OSCE, 1996: 7). A positive step
came in the parliamentary elections of 2001 where the electoral campaign was
considered to be calm (OSCE/ODIHR, 2001b: 1). But in the last elections of 2011
there were some small incidents such as one candidate from DP and one from
SP were shot but did not have serious injury (Panorama, 2011). Moreover the
Electoral Code in Albania has changed three times (2000, 2003 and 2008), but
still somehow it can be misused by the political parties (OSCE/ODIHR, 2004c: 5).
Furthermore, there are more serious problems which indicate that as 22
years old democratic state Albania yet illustrates experience of a very weak
democratization process. These problems are related with the voter lists, vote
counting process, family voting, lack of registration for the Roman and Egyptian
minorities, and the intimidation of people by the political parties. Voter lists
continue to be a serious problem and challenge for Albania and this is seen also
in the coming elections (Sot News, 2013). In terms of counting process there
have been always problems but in the elections of 2011 the results for Tirana
were given approximately after 15 days which was considered as unnecessary
by the observers of OSCE/ODIHR. Moreover this result was contested from the
opposition for a long time and was followed by the boycott of the parliament.
A very serious problem of the elections in Albania may be considered also
the family voting and the intimidation of people. According to the OSCE/ODIHR
reports the family voting has been noticed in the elections of 1996, 1997, 2004,
25
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Salih Özcan & Gloria Shkurti
2007, 2009, and 20113. In the elections of 1996, despite the family voting it
was also observed that one person voted in more than one ballot (OSCE, 1996:
11). Despite this, in the report of 2009 and 2011 it is stated that the political
parties threaten the people with their job so they have to participate in the
demonstrations (OSCE/ODIHR, 2009: 2).
One last issue that must be asserted is the lack of registration for the
minorities in Albania. According to the last report of the OSCE/ODIHR this has
been a persisten problem for Albania (OSCE/ODIHR, 2011a: 18). Based on all
these indicators it may be asserted that it is somehow clear why in the Freedom
House’s Nations in Transit reports about the electoral process, Albania has had
the lowerest points (in the range of 3.75- 4.25)4 compared with the other Balkan
countries (Freedom House, 2001-2013).
To conclude the case of Albania, it may be stated that even the coming
elections most probably will not be conducted in accordance with the international
prereqisites for the elections. After the SMI (Socialist Movement for Integration)
left the coalition, the disputes between political parties have deepened even
more and have raised a big question in the way of counduction of 2013 elections.
The degree to which Albania’s citizens views these elections as credible
turns largely on the extent to which the entire electoral process is administered
in a professional and nonpartisan manner. But a democratic election can also be
placed beyond reach if the present level of political polarization and the prospect
of political manipulation of the process are not checked (National Democratic
Institute, 2013: 2).
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, since the separation from Yugoslavia, six presidential
elections, seven parliamentary elections and six municipal elections have been
held. Like in Albania, the elections are held every four years and in Bosnia
and Herzegovina there have been no problems in regard to the frequency of
elections. In general the elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are considered by
the international observers as conducted in accordance with the international
criteria for democratic elections. But still there are some problems in terms of the
administrative framework, ethnicity and minority rights.
Based on the reports of OSCE/ODIHR the administrative framework is
considered to be very complex (OSCE/ODIHR, 2002: 2) (OSCE/ODIHR, 2004a:
2) (OSCE/ODIHR, 2010b: 4) which results in procedural problems especially in
the vote counting process. For this reason generally the campaign and voting
3 “Group/family voting, which violated the secrecy of the vote, was observed in 21 percent of voting
centres visited” (OSCE/ODIHR, 2011a: 22).
4 “Numeric ratings accompanying the reports are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the
highest and 7 the lowest level of democratic progress” (Freedom House, 2001-2013).
26
Democratization in the Balkans: Evaluating the Criteria of Electoral Process
process are considered as good conducted whether the counting process usually
is considered as not a good process (OSCE/ODIHR, 2002: 19) in terms of the poor
procedures rather than manipulations like in the case of Albania. In the municipal
elections of 2004 the counting process in Sarajevo lasted for weeks and delayed
because of the procedural problems (OSCE/ODIHR, 2004a: 2).
On the other hand, the campaign and voting process are considered as
positive in general with some small incidents such as in the case of Zvornik and
Srpski Gorazde in the elections of 2004 (OSCE/ODIHR, 2004a: 11). Even though
the general overview of elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina is good and providing
a strong pillar for the consolidation of democracy, it still faces one big challenge:
ethnic nationalism. Ethnicity affects directly the political life in BiH and moreover
the suffrage right of all citizens is not respected. The political parties are separated
in between three nationalities: Serbs, Croats and Bosnians. In the OSCE/ODIHR
report of 2002 was stated: “that citizens who do not identify themselves as one
of the three “constituent peoples” of BiH (Bosniac, Serb or Croat) are effectively
barred from the BiH and RS presidencies” (OSCE/ODIHR, 2002: 6). This caused
many problems in the other minorities such as the Albanians, Macedonians, and
Russians etc. Because of these major challenges that are posed in from Bosnia
and Herzegovina in terms of electoral process, based on the reports of Nations in
Transit (Freedom House), Bosnia and Herzegovina has been evaluated between
3 to 3.75 (Freedom House, 2001-2013). But it must be said that in the last years
Bosnia and Herzegovina has done improvements in the electoral process.
Bulgaria
In Bulgaria, after the fall communism, eight parliamentary and five presidential
elections has been held. According to the Nations in Transit reports (Freedom
House), Bulgaria is the only Balkan country that has the highest evaluation with a
rating from 1.72 to 2 in terms of electoral process (Freedom House, 2001-2013).
Furthermore it may be said that the electoral process in Bulgaria generally is a
positive process and it has been held frequently. There are few factors that may
have adverse affect in this process, but two can be considered as more important:
vote buying and rights of suffrage for minority groups.
In the OSCE/ODIHR reports for the elections in Bulgaria is asserted that vote
buying remains a problematic issue in the conduction of elections (OSCE/ODIHR,
2005: 2) (OSCE/ODIHR, 2009b: 1). This incident was noticed in approximately all
the elections and even in the last one which was held on May 12, 2013 (OSCE/
ODIHR, 2013a: 7).
In addition, there are problems with the rights of minorities to vote. The
Bulgarian constitution does not recognize the national minorities and for this
reason the voting was conducted only in Bulgarian language. This is in disadvantage
27
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Salih Özcan & Gloria Shkurti
for the minority groups. From all the minorities in Bulgaria, the most vulnerable
group was the Roma people. According to the OSCE/ODIHR report, “[m]inority
communities, especially Roma, remained vulnerable to potential intimidation,
vote-buying attempts and so-called controlled voting” (OSCE/ODIHR, 2009b: 3).
Croatia
Based on the electoral system of Croatia there are held local, parliamentary and
presidential elections. Since the transition period seven local elections, seven
parliamentary elections and five presidential elections are held. In terms of
frequency, the elections have been regular and are not seen any problems. Being
a state that was soon becomes a member of EU, Croatia has tried to overcome all
the problems that are seen in the electoral process.
More or less the problems have been related with the legal framework,
voter’s lists and the rights of minorities to vote. Based on the reports of OSCE/
ODIHR the election law has lack of clarity, insufficient details and problematic
provisions (OSCE/ODIHR, 2003: 4). However in the forthcoming years there
have been a few positive steps taken in this regard. In the elections of 2011,
the electoral law had still problems in regard to the clarification regarding to
campaign, financing or deadlines (OSCE/ODIHR, 2011b: 4).
Croatia is a very specific case in regard to the voting of minorities. In every
election separate special registers and voting centers are created for the minority
groups. Moreover, in 2000 there were only five seats allocated for the minority
representations. In 2003 this number was increased to eight. So this was seen
as a good step towards the consolidation of democracy, but still it needs more
improvement.
Another challenge regarding the elections in Croatia and consequently
affecting the democratization process is the problem with the voting lists.
Approximately in all the elections this problem has been persistent. Usually the
number of voters has resulted to be bigger than the number of the people who
are eligible to vote.
Based on the reports of Nations in Transit (Freedom House), the electoral
process in Croatia is evaluated between the rate 3 – 3.25 (Freedom House,
2001-2013). This rank is relatively good, but for a state that was soon becomes a
member of the EU was expected to have a better rate.
The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (hereafter Macedonia) is also
one of the Balkan states that have been for many decades within Yugoslavia.
After its separation from Yugoslavia in 1998, in Macedonia four presidential
28
Democratization in the Balkans: Evaluating the Criteria of Electoral Process
elections, seven parliamentarian elections and six local elections have been held.
Accordingly it may be assessed that like the other Balkan states, there are not any
problems in terms of frequency of elections.
Based on the reports of OSCE/ODIHR the elections in Macedonia, in general,
have been conducted in a good and proper way. Moreover many improvements
have been done from year to year. Despite this there are some problems that have
remained persistent in the electoral process in Macedonia. First of all, problems
are found in the Electoral Law in terms of voter lists, campaign, financing etc.
In the elections of 2004, because of the early presidential election and the
ambiguities in the Electoral Law, there were problems with the production of
ballots in the minority language, as in the second round the ballots were only
in the Macedonian language as stated by the report: “The language provision in
question also does not fully implement the Ohrid Framework Agreement (OFA)
principles on languages, which were incorporated into the Constitution through
Amendment Five (Article 7)” (OSCE/ODIHR, 2004b: 5). The procedure for the
election of the president may also be considered as a negative aspect of the
Macedonian Electoral Law. For one candidate, to become the president of the
Macedonia s/he has to take the majority of votes from the registered voters. If
this limit is not achieved by any candidate in the first round then the elections
pass to a second round. In this round the candidate that takes the majority of
votes, with the condition that the majority of the people registered in the voting
lists must vote, wins the elections. This has had many negative impacts in terms
of intimidation of voters and violence because it creates a very tense situation in
the place. Moreover it may lead to political threshold.
Approximately in all the elections in Macedonia there have incidents
occurred in regard to ballot stuffing, intimidation and threats for the job places
(OSCE/ODIHR, 2004: 11) (OSCE/ODIHR, 2008a: 18) (OSCE/ODIHR, 2013b: 2).
Another persistent problem in the electoral process of Macedonia is related with
the voters list. As it is stated above, the lists are a very important compound for
the elections because the candidates have to receive the majority of votes on
basis of the registered voters. For this reason sometimes there are excess names
in the list but at the same time there are people that cannot find their name on
the lists. During the elections of 2008, in the first round 8% of the people could
not vote as a result of this problem. This percentage was increased to 14% in the
second round. So it was meant that these people were denied for their rights to
vote as citizens of Macedonia (OSCE/ODIHR, 2008a: 8). In 2013 another problem
came out about the voting process as stated by the report:
The SEC [State Election Commission] decided not to allow citizens with
biometric passports that listed the Republic of Albania as their address to
vote in the second round even though they were included in the voter lists
and had been allowed to vote in the first round (OSCE/ODIHR, 2013b: 1-2).
29
Volume:2 Number:4
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Salih Özcan & Gloria Shkurti
In addition to these irregularities, it can be mentioned that especially the
last elections, there has been a “blurring of state and party” (OSCE/ODIHR,
2011c: 10) (OSCE/ODIHR, 2013b). Sometimes the ruling party or the Prime
minister is accused as using their post and the state funds for their campaign and
electoral process. In general it seems like Macedonia has a lot to do in terms of
the electoral process and to comply with the democratic principles. Even in the
reports from the Nations in Transit (produced by Freedom House), Macedonia
has not had a good rank in between 3- 3.50, with a deterioration of the situation
in the last years (Freedom House, 2001-2013).
Montenegro
Montenegro is another Balkan state which is studied in this paper. After the
fall of communism there have been held nine parliamentary elections, seven
presidential elections, and ten municipal elections. However, in order to have a
more current and concrete picture for Montenegro, in this section the elections
that are conducted after separation with Serbia in 2006 will be analyzed. In terms
of frequency of elections, Montenegro has had no such problems. Even for the
free and fair elements of elections, in most of all the time there have been no
grave problems. The process in general was considered as transparent in the
reports of OSCE/ODIHR. The electoral campaign has usually been conducted
under polarized environment and with few incidents. In the voting days or
counting procedure, there are reported events of just a few irregularities. One
incident related with the vote buying was reported in the parliamentary elections
in 2006 (OSCE/ODIHR, 2006: 2). Family voting and secrecy of voting has also been
a persistent challenge for Montenegro, especially it was more obvious in the rural
areas (OSCE/ODIHR, 2012a: 19).
Another bigger challenge in the elections has been the relation between
the ruling party and the candidate. In other words, in the elections of 2008 and
2013 the ruling party misused the finances and even was difficult to differentiate
between the Montenegrin state and ruling party because of the policies followed
by them (OSCE/ODIHR, 2012a: 11). In the reports of the Nations in Transit there
were other challenges added such as the limited representation of minorities,
so after all these irregularities, Montenegro was ranked with 3.25 to 3.50 points
(Freedom House, 2001-2013).
Romania
Romania is another Balkan state that is analyzed in this paper. After the fall of
communism there have been seven parliamentary elections, six presidential
elections and six local elections held. So in terms of the frequency there is no
violation in Romania. After Bulgaria, Romania is the second Balkan state that has
a better ranking in the reports of Nations in Transit of Freedom House. In general,
30
Democratization in the Balkans: Evaluating the Criteria of Electoral Process
the electoral process of Romania is evaluated with 2.50 to 3 points. It must be
said that before 2012, Romania had done some positive improvements but in the
last elections, that of 2012, there were many challenges faced with and this gave
the impression as that Romania moved backwards.
The main problem in Romania remains the Electoral Law. In general it is
considered to be very complicated and difficult to be understood by the people.
Related with the Election Law there were some problems especially in terms of
integrity of vote. Because, in 2004 the Parliament did not approve the application
of voters’ cards, after one citizen casted his/her vote some paper stickers are
stuck at the back of the ID card. But this could be removed easily and one person
could vote easily more than one time. This has remained a persistent problem in
most of all the elections (OSCE/ODIHR, 2004d: 2) (OSCE/ODIHR, 2012c: 11).
Another weak point in the electoral process of Romania is related with
the usage of administrative resources and vote buying (OSCE/ODIHR, 2004d:
17)(OSCE/ODIHR, 2012c: 12). In addition, the political tension and problems
that Romania is facing these years are reflected in the electoral campaign. The
campaign in the 2012 elections has been politicized and the political debate
was missing. Foundations of democratization process, such as the elections,
were affected by this political instability and for this reason Romania has moved
backwards.
Serbia
Serbia is the last Balkan state that is analyzed in this paper. Serbia, after the fall
of the communist regime, has not had any problems in regard to the frequency
of the elections. They have been held regularly and more or less in accordance
with the international requirements. Since 1990 nine parliamentary elections and
eight presidential elections have been held. But as a threshold of achieving 50%
of the votes, the elections in 1997 and 2002 were repeated for the second time.
Based on the reports of OSCE/ODIHR there have been progress made in terms of
electoral system. Comparing the elections of 1997 with the later elections there
can be found a lot of positive achievements. In 1997, the integrity of elections
in Serbia was compromised and especially after the election fraud in Kosovo
where the polling stations were not open, but the result was that nearly 100%
of the voters participated and 100% of votes were received by the Left Coalition.
Moreover in these elections the results were made public only partially (OSCE/
ODIHR, 1997: 5). But in the other elections, serious steps were taken to overcome
these irregularities.
Still the main challenge for Serbia remains the electoral framework. It
remained as weakened in the electoral process of Serbia even there were many
attempts made to improve it. This current Electoral Law drops back the European
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Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Salih Özcan & Gloria Shkurti
standards, especially in terms of procedures in polling stations and quality of
voting procedures (OSCE/ODIHR, 2012b: 3). Because of these problems, there
have always been problems with the secrecy of voting (OSCE/ODIHR, 2001a:
14) (OSCE/ODIHR, 2008b: 17)(OSCE/ODIHR, 2012b: 3). Mainly because of these
reasons, even in the reports of Nations in Transit (Freedom House) Serbia has
remained for most of the latest years in the rank of 3.50 points.
Since comparing these eight Balkan states one by one with other advanced
European countries is beyond the scope and limit of this paper, a general but
short comparison with Poland will be used. The main reason for choosing
Poland is that it is a member of the EU with an ex-communist regime like the
eight case countries of this paper. With this comparison, the positive effect of
the EU membership in order to have consolidated democratic institutions with
democratic electoral system of free, fair and frequent elections can clearly be
understood. When compared the eight cases of Balkan countries with Poland,
based on the Electoral Process scores as published by the Freedom House’s
Nations in Transit reports, it can be seen that there is a big gap between them.
Poland has had a score between 1.25 – 2 (Freedom House, 2001-2013), with a
great progress in the last years. Except Bulgaria, none of the other Balkan states
could have a score close to that of Poland. Considering the communist past of
all states, including that of Poland, it can be said that the Balkan states are quite
behind in terms of the electoral process and somehow in democratization.
32
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
Bosnia Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Macedonia
Montenegro
Romania
Serbia
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
Family
Voting
+
+
-
+
-
-
-
+
(In progress)
-
-
+
-
Vote
Buying
-
-
-
Minority
Rights
-
-
-
-
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
In
progress
+
Conduction
of Elections
Campaign
Process
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
Vote
Counting
The indicators of Electoral Process
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Frequency of
Elections
Source: Table is produced by the authors of this study using the data from the Freedom House and OSCE/ODIHR
reports.* (-) Negative evaluation by OSCE/ODIHR
** (+) Positive evaluation by OSCE/ODIHR
***“Numeric ratings accompanying the reports are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7
the lowest level of democratic progress” (Freedom House, 2001-2013)
-
Voter
Lists
Albania
CountrY
-
-
+
-
-
+
-
In progress
Electoral
Law
3.5
(In progress)
2.5 – 3
(backwards)
3.25 – 3.5
3 – 3.5
(backwards)
3 – 3.25
1.75-2
3 – 3.75
(In progress)
3.75- 4.25
Overall
Rating***
Democratization in the Balkans: Evaluating the Criteria of Electoral Process
33
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Salih Özcan & Gloria Shkurti
Conclusion
After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the third wave of democratization, which began
in the 1970s, extended to Central and Eastern Europe, and the Balkan states are
part of it. The fall of the authoritative regimes had like a domino effect and the
last domino felt over Albania. After the transition period, there was not any other
path rather than to democratize. But this process is continuing in very slow steps
especially in states like Albania and Bosnia. Today the picture that we have from
the Balkans leaves space for some pessimistic thoughts. With the exception of
Croatia, it seems that all the other Balkan states have made adverse steps in
terms of development and democratization.
Besides it may be concluded that one of the main pillars of democratization,
the electoral process, flaws in many aspects. More or less all the Balkan states
fail to conduct free and fair elections. As it may be seen from the table above, all
the eight Balkan states have serious problems in terms of minority voting, vote
buying, electoral campaign and electoral law. Even some of the states seem to
make progressive steps, yet there are a lot of problems which the Balkan states
are facing. For this reason most of the states have a negative rating in the Freedom
House reports. From all the eight cases Bulgaria is the state with the best ranking
while Albania has the worse one.
As a result it may be said that the democratization process in the Balkans has
a very difficult path as its main elements are not conducted in a proper way. For
a working democracy in the Balkans the population’s awareness should be raised
to persuade the people in charge for effective governmental efforts.
34
Democratization in the Balkans: Evaluating the Criteria of Electoral Process
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37
Vol:2, No:4, 39-56, December, 2013
Politik Yolsuzluk ve Yasadışı Uyuşturucu Ticaretine Etkisi:
Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma
Osman Şahin*
Erkan Demirbaş**
Özet
Bu çalışmanın amacı politik yolsuzluk ve yasadışı uyuşturucu kaçakçılığı arasındaki
nedensellik ilişkisini 1996-2006 yılları arasındaki verileri kullanarak incelemektir.
Bu amaç çerçevesinde yasadışı uyuşturucunun üretildiği ve bu uyuşturucunun
hedef ülkelere ulaşmasında tercih edilen rotalar üzerinde bulunan 32 ülke dikkate
alınmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin analizinde panel data analiz metodu
kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar çalışmaya konu olan ülkelerde politik yolsuzluk
ve uyuşturucu trafiği arasındaki ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır.
Anahtar kelimeler: Uyuşturucu, Politik Yolsuzluk, Hedef Ülke, Panel Data
Political Corruption And Its Effect On Illicit Drug Trafficking: An Empirical Study
Abstract
The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between political corruption
and illicit drug trafficking by using the data from 1996 to 2006. For this purpose,
some 32 countries are selected by considering the countries where types of
drugs illicitly cultivated and countries on the routes of target locations. Panel data
method is used to analyze the relation between variables. Finding of the study
reveals the presence of positive relation between political corruption and illicit
drug.
Keywords: Drug, Political Corruption, Target Country, Panel Data
Giriş
Siyasette yolsuzluk, Plato ve Aristo’dan beri politik filozofide geçerli bir kavramdır.
Machiavelli ve Montesquieu gibi modern politik teorisyenler sayesinde,
siyasetteki yolsuzluk daha iyi anlaşılmış ve ifade edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte
politik yolsuzluğa dair teorik düzeyde yanlış anlayışlar hakimdir. Politik yolsuzluk
denince akla daha ziyade rüşvet verme, rüşvet alma ve zimmete para geçirme
gibi konular gelmektedir. Bu bağlamda, ilk olarak yolsuzluk ve politik yolsuzluğun
farklılaştırılması ihtiyacı doğmaktadır. Yolsuzluk, şahsi, parasal çıkarlar uğruna,
*
Doç. Dr., Turgut Özal Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İşletme Bölümü.
Yrd. Doç. Dr., Turgut Özal Üniveristesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü.
**
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Osman Şahin & Erkan Demirbaş
kamu rolü görevinden sapma anlamına gelirken, politik yolsuzluğun bununla
sınırlı kalmadığı görülmektedir. Politik yolsuzlukta, asıl amaç parasal bir çıkar
sağlama olmayıp, ancak parasal çıkarlardan çok daha önemli sayılabilecek
konular gündeme gelmektedir. Bunlar şöylece sıralanabilir: kamu gücünün
yanlış kullanılması, mevki elde edilmesi, parasal olmayan çıkarlar, kamu gücü
ve yetkisinin manipüle edilmesi, gücün kötüye kullanılması. Politik yolsuzluk
sonuç olarak, vatandaşların demokrasiye olan güveninin azalmasına, kanunların
etkinsizleşmesine ve insan haklarının ihlaline neden olmaktadır. Bunların yanında,
ülkelerin sosyal ve ekonomik anlamda gelişmelerine engel teşkil etmektedir.
Politik yolsuzluk, birinci ve en önemli düzeyde demokrasiyi ardından politik
sistemleri olumsuz etkilemektedir (Grubıša, 2005: 56-57).
Politik yolsuzluk, son 25 yıl içerisinde ekonomide yaşanan yeniden yapılanma
sürecinin ön plana çıkardığı temel konuların başında gelmektedir. Bundan dolayı
yolsuzluk, zapt edilemeyen devlet gücü kaynaklı bir problem ve ekonomik
yapılanmayı engelleyen bir tehdit olarak tanımlanmıştır (Szeftel, 1998: 223-226).
Heidenheimer (1970), politik yolsuzluğun tanımını üç kategoride yapmıştır.
Birinci kategori, kamu görevi merkezli olup, yolsuzluk, kişisel çıkarları uğruna
yasal ve kamu görevlerinin yerine getirilmemesi olarak ifade edilmiştir (Meier ve
Holbrook: 1992: 136). Bu tanımdan yola çıkarak, yolsuzluğun mevcudiyeti için
gerekli olan üç temel şart şöylece sıralanabilir:
1. Keyfi güç: İlgili kamu çalışanının, keyfi bir şekilde politika ve kuralları
dizayn etmek üzere yetkilerini kullanması,
2. Ekonomik Çıkar: Keyfi güç uygulamasının, mevcut gelirlerden bir kısmının
alınması veya tamamına el konularak yeni bir gelir tesis edilmesine imkân vermesi,
3. Zayıf Enstitüler: Politika, yönetim ve resmi kurumlarda tecessüm eden
teşviklerin, devlet görevlilerinin bir gelir elde etmek veya gelirden pay alınmasını
sağlayacak şekilde keyfi olarak güç kullanılmasına imkân vermesi (Aidt, 2003:
633).
Bu çıkarlar, birey ve yakın aile için parasal ve makamsal bir getiri içermekte
veya belli türdeki şahsi nüfuzun ifasına karşı olan yasaların ihlali mahiyetinde
olmalıdır (Collier, 1999: 3).
İkinci kategori, piyasa sistemi merkezli olup, yolsuzluğu, kamu görevlilerinin
menfaat maksimizasyonunu sağlamasının bir parçası olarak kabul etmiştir (Meier
ve Holbrook, 1992: 136).
Piyasa odaklı bir tanımlamaya göre yolsuzluk, halktan ilave gelir sağlamak
üzere bir hükümet görevlisinin yetkilerini kötüye kullanmasıdır. Böylece bir
tanımlamaya göre, yolsuzluk yapan kamu görevlisi kendi ofisini ticari bir iş yeri
olarak kabul edip, bu yolla elde ettiği geliri artırmayı hedeflemektedir (Philp,
1997: 444).
40
Politik Yolsuzluk ve Yasadışı Uyuşturucu Ticaretine Etkisi: Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma
Üçüncü kategori kamu çıkarı merkezli olup, yolsuzluğu, bazı kamu çıkarlarına
ihanet edilmesi olarak kabul etmiştir. Peters ve Welch (1978a, 1976), yolsuzluğun
tanımında ne kullanılırsa kullanılsın, bireysel düzeyde yolsuzluğun birçok çeşidi
olduğuna işaret etmiştir. Pittsburgh bölgesinde yapılan bir anketten yola çıkan
Johnston (1986a), ankete katılanların, zimmete geçirme, resmi hırsızlık, yalan
beyan ve adam kayırmayı, yolsuzluğun farklı çeşitleri olarak kabul ettiğini
bulmuştur. Heidenheimer’in daha geniş kapsamlı olan kamu çıkarı tanımında,
yolsuzluk birbirine benzeyen ve ahlaka uymayan davranış olarak tanımlanmıştır.
En dar kapsamlı kamu hizmeti tanımına bakıldığında yolsuzluk, yasadışı davranışla
sınırlandırılmıştır (Meier ve Holbrook, 1992: 135-136).
Politik yolsuzluğu incelemek üzere, iki temel yaklaşım kullanılabilir. Bunlardan
ilki, yasa teorisyenleri ve uygulayıcılarının yaklaşımı olup, yolsuzluğu, suç unsuru
olan yasa dışı davranışa indirgemekte; ikincisi ise politika teorisyenleri ve politika
bilimciler olup, politik yolsuzluğu, kamu gücündeki görülmez bozulma ve şahsi
çıkarla sınırlı kalmayıp, siyasi çıkarlar için politik gücün kötüye kullanılması olarak
ele almışlardır (Grubıša, 2005: 57).
Yolsuzluk genel anlamda, gücün kötüye kullanılması olarak tanımlanmaktadır.
Burada öne çıkan, kişisel veya siyasi çıkar sağlamak üzere hükümet yetkilerinin
yasal veya etik olmayan bir şekilde kullanılması akla gelmektedir. Daha geniş bir
tanımlamaya göre politik yolsuzluk, bir kamu görevlisi veya siyasetçinin, belli bir
kişi veya grubun çıkarlarını korumak veya ihmal etmek üzere, gizlice ve kasıtlıca
belli bir siyasi toplumdaki ahlaki davranışlara ait standartlara aykırı hareket
etmesi olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Yapılması gereken davranış yerine getirilmezken,
belli kişi veya gruplar, kamu nezdinde almaları gereken fayda ve çıkardan daha
fazlasına sahip olmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, sistem tarafından korunamayan diğer
kişi veya gruplar zarara uğramaktadır (Robben, 1997: 220).
OECD, yolsuzluğu, uygun olmayan avantajların elde edilmesi; uygunsuz
parasal veya diğer çıkarların temini; bir devlet görevlisin, bir ilişki kurmak veya
mevcut bir ilişkiyi devam ettirmek üzere yasal görevlerini yerine getirmemesi
şeklindeki faaliyetler olarak tanımlamaktadır. Avrupa Konseyi tarafından yapılan
bir tanımlamada ise politik yolsuzluk, demokratik süreçlerin yerine gelmesi ve
demokratik enstitülerin fonksiyonlarını yerine getirmesini engelleyen, kanunları
erozyona uğratan, insan haklarının ihlaline yol açan tehlikeler olarak kabul etmiştir
(Grubıša, 2005: 58)
Birleşik Krallık bünyesindeki Galler Parlamentosunca oluşturulan
“Independent Commission Againsit Corruption-Yolsuzluk Karşıtı Bağımsız
Komisyon” tarafından yapılan bir tanımlamada, yolsuzluk, bir toplum içerisinde
yetkili hükümetin görevlerini yanlış şekilde kullanmasıdır. Buradaki yanlış
kavramı, doğru görev tanımının nasıl belirlendiğine bağlıdır. Bu anlayışlar,
toplum içerisindeki kültürel konular ve davranış standartlarınca etkilenebilir.
41
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Osman Şahin & Erkan Demirbaş
Bir toplumda doğru kabul edilen bir davranış, başka bir toplumda yanlış olabilir.
Politik yolsuzluğun tanımlanmasında yaşanan problem, politikanın doğasındaki
farklı kavramların etrafında dönmektedir (Philp, 1997: 439-448).
Bu çalışmanın amacı, politik yolsuzluğun, yasadışı uyuşturucu ticareti
üzerindeki etkisini ölçmektir. Bu çalışma, beş bölümden oluşmaktadır. İlk bölüm,
politik yolsuzluğun tanımı ve çalışmada ileri sürülen hipotezden oluşmaktadır.
İkinci bölüm, yasal olmayan uyuşturucu üretimi ve trafiği hakkındadır. Üçüncü
bölümde uyuşturucu trafiği ve yolsuzluğa ilişkin literatüre yer verilmiştir.
Dördüncü bölüm hipotezi test etmek üzere kullanılan değişkenler, model,
ekonometrik ve istatistik metotları içermektedir. Beşinci bölümde, sonuçlar ve
analizin bulguları yer almaktadır. Son olarak, elde edilen bulgular ışığında genel
bir değerlendirme yapılmıştır.
Elde edilen bulgular, yolsuzlukta bir azalma olduğunda, ele geçirilen yasadışı
uyuşturucu miktarında da bir düşüş olacağını göstermektedir. Politik yolsuzluğun
artması durumunda ise uyuşturucu üretimindeki artışa bağlı olarak ele geçirilen
yasadışı uyuşturucu miktarında da bir artış olacaktır.
Yasa dışı uyuşturucuyla ilgili literatür, daha çok örnek olaylara dayanmaktadır.
Bu örnek olay analizlerinde daha çok yolsuzluğun yasadışı uyuşturucu üretimi
ve arzını nasıl kolaylaştırdığı, denetimlerdeki yetersizliklerin üretim üzerindeki
etkileri, yasadışı uyuşturucu gelirlerinin yasal olmayan faaliyetlerin finansmanında
nasıl kullanıldığı gibi konular ele alınmaktadır. Çalışmaların ağırlıklı olarak örnek
olay düzeyinde kalması, değişkenler arasındaki ilişkilerin yönü ve boyutunun
ampirik olarak ele alınmasının ihmaline yol açmıştır. Bu anlamda çalışmamız,
literatürde ifade edilen boşluğun doldurulmasına katkı sağlayacaktır.
Uluslararası Bir Suç Olarak Uyuşturucu Ticareti
Uyuşturucu, küçük ve hafif silah ile insan kaçakçılığı, küresel suç ekonomisinde
en önemli üç sektördür. Uyuşturucu ticareti en büyük aktivite olup, yaklaşık
234 milyon kaçak uyuşturucu kullanıcısı ve yıllık 400-500 milyar dolarlık bir gelir
oluşturmaktadır. Sadece ABD’de yıllık yaklaşık olarak 250 ton kokain, 13-18 ton
eroin, 8.500 ton hint keneviri tüketilmektedir. Tahmini olarak yıllık kokain imalatı,
Latin Amerika koka yaprağı üretim trendine göre 1985’te 300 tonun altında,
1996’da 950 tonun üzerinde, 2002’de ise yaklaşık 800 ton olmuştur. Afyonun
yıllık üretimi, eroin için saf olarak 1990’da 3.700 ton iken artış göstererek,
1999’da 5.700 tona çıkmıştır. 2001’de Afganistan’daki kesilmeden dolayı üretim
1.600 tona düşmüştür. 2002 itibariyle Afganistan’daki uyuşturucu ticaretinin
hareketlenmesiyle birlikte küresel yıllık afyon üretimi yaklaşık olarak 4.500
tona yükselmiştir. 2003 itibariyle, sadece Afganistan’da Avrupa pazarı için 337
ton eroin potansiyeline sahipti. Bu rakamlar, Myanmar (Burma), Kolombiya ve
Meksika toplamını gölgede bırakmaktadır (Friman, 2006: 273).
42
Politik Yolsuzluk ve Yasadışı Uyuşturucu Ticaretine Etkisi: Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma
Afganistan günümüzde afyon üretiminde açık farkla liderliğini
sürdürmektedir. Mevcut durum itibariyle Afganistan’da 380 ton eroin ve morfin
üretilmekte olup, bunun beş tonu ülkede tüketilmekte, kalan kısmı ise komşu
ülkeler üzerinden küresel düzeyde pazarlanmaktadır (www.unodc.org). 2012
yılı itibariyle küresel düzeyde yasa dışı afyon üretiminin % 70’i Afganistan’da
gerçekleştirilmiştir. Amerika kıtasında en fazla afyon üretimi Meksika’da olurken,
Laos Demokratik Halk Cumhuriyeti ve Myanmar’da yapılan üretim Asya’da artan
talebi karşılayamamıştır (World Drug Report-WDR, 2013).
Şekil 1: Seçilmiş Ülkelerde Afyon Üretimi
Kaynak: WDR, 2013.
Harita 1: Asya Kökenli Küresel Eroin Akışı
Kaynak: WDR, 2010
43
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Osman Şahin & Erkan Demirbaş
Tablo 1: Avrupa’ya Giden Eroinin Rotalarına Göre Dağılımı
Tutar
(Ton)
Pay
Balkan Rotası (Afganistan-İran-Türkiye-Güney Avrupa-Avrupa’nın
diğer bölgeleri)
85
80
Kuzey Rotası (Afganistan-Merkez Asya, Rusya Federasyonu, Doğu
Avrupa)
4
4
Kuzey Balkan Rotası (Afganistan-İran-Kafkasya-Güney Avrupa)
7
7
Doğrudan Pakistan-Batı ve Merkez Avrupa
5
5
Diğerleri
5
5
TOPLAM
106
100
Rota
Kaynak: WDR, 2010.
Bunlara ilaveten Kolombiya’da ele geçirilen kokain miktarı, Pasifik rotasıyla
karşılaştırıldığında Atlantik rotasının denizyolu trafiğinde daha önemli bir konuma
geldiğini gözler önüne sermektedir. Ele geçirilen kokain miktarında Kolombiya
(200 ton) ve ABD (94 ton) ilk sıralarda yer almaktadır. Güney Amerika’daki kokainin
Brezilya, Portekiz ve Afrika’daki Portekizce konuşan ülkeler üzerinden Avrupa’ya
ulaşmasında güzergâh üzerindeki ülkelerin arasındaki dil bağları etkili olmaktadır.
Şekil 2: Küresel Düzeyde Ele Geçirilen Kokain Miktarı (2000-2011)
Kaynak: WDR, 2013.
44
Politik Yolsuzluk ve Yasadışı Uyuşturucu Ticaretine Etkisi: Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma
Harita 2: Küresel Düzeyde Önemli Kokain Akışı (2008)11
Kaynak: WDR, 2010.
Amfetamin türü uyarıcı (amphetamine-type stimulants/ATS) piyasasında
Kuzey Amerika ile orta ve güney pasifikteki adalar önemli bir paya sahip olmasına
karşın doğu ve güneydoğu Asya’da yükselen trend dikkat çekmektedir. Küresel
düzeyde 2011 yılında ele geçirilen ATS miktarı bir önceki yıla göre % 66 artarak
123 tona ulaşmıştır (WDR, 2013).
Şekil 3: Küresel Düzeyde Ele Geçirilen ATS Miktarı (2002-2011, ton)
Kaynak: WDR, 2013.
1 Andean Bölgesi, Bolivya, Kolombiya, Ekvator, Peru ve Venezüella’dan oluşmaktadır.
45
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Osman Şahin & Erkan Demirbaş
Şekil 4: En Fazla Miktarda Metamfetamin (a) ve Amfetamin (b) Yakalanan Ülkeler
(ton&2010-2011)
Kaynak: WDR, 2013.
Şekil 5: En Fazla Miktarda Ectasy Yakalanan Ülkeler (2010-2011)
Kaynak: WDR, 2013.
Küresel düzeyde ele geçirilen eroin ve morfin miktarlarına bakıldığında
Afganistan, İran ve Pakistan ilk sıralarda yer almaktadır. Adı geçen ülkeler,
üretim bölgesi (Afganistan) veya üretim yapılan bölgelere sınır (İran, Pakistan)
sahibidirler. Diğer ülkeler ise ya güzergâh ülkeleri (Türkiye, Rusya) ya da hedef ülke
(Avrupa ülkeleri, ABD) konumundadır.
Şekil 6: Küresel Düzeyde
Yakalanan Eroin Ve Morfin
Miktarı (2011, ton& yüzde)
Kaynak: WDR, 2013.
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Politik Yolsuzluk ve Yasadışı Uyuşturucu Ticaretine Etkisi: Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma
Bireysel düzeyde ele geçirme olayları incelendiğinde, üretimin yapıldığı
bölgelerin bu avantajdan kaynaklı ilk sıralarda yer aldığı görülmektedir. Örneğin
kokain olaylarında Brezilya ve Kolombiya; eroinde ise Afganistan ve Pakistan
liste başında yer almaktadır. Kenevir üretiminin diğer uyuşturucu türlerine
göre küresel düzeyde daha yaygın olmasına karşın, üretimin geniş çaplı olarak
yerelleşmesi yetkililer açısından önemi bir sorun oluşturmaktadır.
Tablo 2: Bireysel Uyuşturucu Yakalama Olaylarında Türlerine Göre Adı En Fazla
Geçen Ülkeler (2001-2012)
Sıra
Eroin
ATS
1
Fas
Kenevir
Brezilya
Kokain
Afganistan
Hollanda
2
Afganistan
Kolombiya
Pakistan
Laos
3
Jamaika
Arjantin
Tacikistan
Almanya
4
Hollanda
Dominik
Arnavutluk
İngiltere
5
Güney Afrika
Venezüella
Türkiye
Myanmar
6
Paraguay
Peru
Hollanda
Kamboçya
7
Gana
Jamaika
İran
İran
8
İspanya
Bolivya
Hindistan
Belçika
9
Nepal
Kosta Rika
Tayland
Çin
10
Arnavutluk
Hollanda
Kırgızistan
ABD
Uyuşturucu trafiğinde denizyolu taşımacılığı önemli bir paya sahiptir.
Konteynırlar ve küçük botlar kullanılarak deniz yolu kullanılarak okyanus ve
kıtalar üzerinden gerçekleştirilen uyuşturucu trafiğinin takibi otoriteler için her
geçen gün zorlaşmaktadır. Bu anlamda Doğu ve Batı Afrika, denizyolu trafiğinde
giderek daha önemli bir konuma gelmektedir. Afganistan’dan başlayarak İran’daki
veya Pakistan’daki limanları kullanarak güneye doğru giden yeni deniz yolu trafiği
kullanılarak Doğu ve Batı Afrika üzerinden tüketicilere ulaşılmaktadır. 2009’dan
beri özellikle Doğu Afrika’da yaklaşık 10 kat olmak üzere tüm kıtada ele geçirilen
uyuşturucu miktarında önemli düzeyde artış olmuştur. Bu anlamda, deniz yolu
trafiğinde ele geçirilen uyuşturucu miktarı, tren ve karayoluna nispeten çok daha
fazladır.
Uyuşturucu tacirleri, eski güzergâhlarını ikame etmek üzere yeni alternatife
rotaları değerlendirmektedir. Karayolu eroin kaçakçılığında mevcut Balkan ve
Kuzey rotasına22 ek olarak Afganistan’dan güneye (southern route) doğru İran
veya Pakistan üzerinden, Irak’tan Ortadoğu’ya yönlendirilmeler söz konusu
olmaktadır. Balkan rotası önemli güzergâhların başında yer almasın rağmen, bu
rotada gerçekleştirilen uyuşturucu trafiğinden düşüş dikkat çekmektedir (WDR,
2013).
2 Balkan Rotası, İran ve Türkiye üzerinden Avrupa’ya ulaşan trafiğini, kuzey rotası ise Merkez Asya ve
Rusya Federasyonu güzergâhını temsil etmektedir.
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Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Osman Şahin & Erkan Demirbaş
Şekil 7: Yakalanan Uyuşturucuların Ulaştırma Yollarına Göre Dağılımı (kilo, 19972011)
Kaynak: (WDR, 2013).
Literatür
Birleşmiş milletler, narkotik uyuşturucu veya psikotrop madde kaçakçılığını
insanlığa karşı uluslararası bir suç olarak tanımlamaktadır. Bu bağlamda, adı geçen
maddelerin kendilerinin veya ham hallerinin kaçakçılığı, dağıtımı, arz edilmesi,
imal edilmesi, üretilmesi, korunması, nakliyesi, depolanması, idare edilmesi,
kaçakçılığa finansman sağlanması veya yardım edilmesi yasadışı faaliyetler olarak
tanımlanmaktadır (Birleşmiş Milletler, 1985: 1160).
Alınan genel kurul kararında, üye ülkelerin özellikle yaşa dışı uyuşturucu
trafiğiyle ilgili katı cezaların tatbik edilmesi için yasa düzenlemelerde bulunması
gerektiği vurgulanmaktadır. Bunlara ilaveten uluslararası İlgili uluslararası
kuruluşların yasadışı uyuşturucu faaliyetlerini engellemeye dönük BM veya
bölgesel organizasyonlar bünyesindeki yapıları kendi bünyelerinde de kurmaları
ve kendi aralarında işbirliğinde bulunmaları tavsiye edilmektedir (Birleşmiş
Milletler, 1985: 1161).
Yasadışı uyuşturucu trafiğini gündeminden düşürmeyen BM ayrıca,
uyuşturucu talebinin engellenmesi ve azaltılması; uyuşturucu arzının kontrol
edilmesi, uyuşturucu trafiğinin önlenmesi ile rehabilitasyon olmak üzere dört ana
başlıkta bölgesel ve uluslararası kapsamda işbirliği yapılmasının önermektedir.
Bu başlıkların altında çeşitli hedeflere ulaşılması öngörülmektedir. İkinci başlık
olan uyuşturucu arzının kontrol edilmesi kapsamında, narkotik uyuşturucu ve
psikotrop madde kontrolünde uluslararası sistemin güçlendirilmesi; psikotrop
maddelerin uluslararası hareketlerinin kontrolünün güçlendirilmesi; yasa dışı
narkotik üretiminin engellenmesi hedefleri yer almaktadır. Üçüncü başlık olan
yasadışı uyuşturucu trafiğinin önlenmesi kapsamında ise önemli uyuşturucu
48
Politik Yolsuzluk ve Yasadışı Uyuşturucu Ticaretine Etkisi: Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma
güzergâhlarının engellenmesi, uyuşturucu dağıtımının kontrolünde yeni
tekniklerin geliştirilmesi, yasal geçiş güzergâhlarındaki denetimlerin artırılması,
diğer sınır bölgelerinden geçişlerdeki kontrollerin artırılması, sınır bölgelerindeki
hava, su, kara parçalarının gözetilmesi, uyuşturucu trafiğine dönük uluslararası
postaların takibi, uluslararası sularda ve hava sahalarında gemi ve uçakların
kontrol edilmesi yer almaktadır (Birleşmiş Milletler, 1987: 1637-1640).
Yukarıda görüldüğü gibi, BM yasadışı uyuşturucu piyasasını arz ve talep
ciheti olmak üzere iki taraflı olarak ele almaktadır. Bu şekilde sadece üretime
odaklanmayan BM, tüketim boyutunu da düşünerek piyasa aktörlerinin tamamını
dikkate almaktadır. İfade edilen hedeflere ulaşılması noktasında, özellikle kamu
gücünde yolsuzluk olaylarının minimum düzeyde gerçekleşmesi büyük önem
arz etmektedir. BM tarafından oluşturulmak istenen sıkı kontrol şartlarını tatbik
edilebilmesi, ancak ve ancak bu kararları uygulayacak bir iradenin varlığına ve bu
iradenin bir bütün olarak politik yolsuzlukla mücadele etmesine bağlıdır.
Andean ülkelerinde gözlenen uyuşturucu trafiğiyle ilgili çalışmalar üzerinde
analiz yapan Vellinga (1999), yasa dışı üretimin ağırlıklı olarak kokain, afyon, eroin
ve esrar gibi uyuşturucuların uluslararası transferini özelde ise kokain ticaretinin
arz ayağını oluşturduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Yapılan değerlendirmeye göre,
ülkelerdeki yasadışı uyuşturucu endüstrisinin gelişmesindeki en önemli etken
ülke yönetiminin maruz kaldığı gayri meşrulaştırma süreci olmuştur. Yarım asırdır
devam eden bu süreçte, Kolombiya hükümeti etkinsizleşmekle kalmamış, artan
yolsuzlukla birlikte ülkenin geniş toprakları üzerinde kontrolünü kaybetmiştir
(Vellinga, 1999: 139).
Birçok ülkede yetkililer ve çalışanlar arasında uyuşturucu ve yolsuzluğun
ilişkisinin varlığı ispat edilmiştir. Özellikle Afganistan’da yasa dışı afyon
endüstrisinin yolsuzluğun ciddi bir kaynağı olduğu ve kamu kuruluşlarını sarstığı
gözlenmektedir. Bunlara ilaveten Afganistan’daki polis şeflerinin, pek çok düzeyde
kamu yöneticilerinin afyon ticaretinden gelir sağladığı rapor edilmektedir. Benzer
bir şekilde Brezilya’da da uyuşturucu yolsuzluğunun kanunları işlemez hale
getirdiğini, ileri düzey insan hakları ihlaline yol açtığı ve demokrasinin gelişmesine
mani olabileceği ifade edilmektedir. Kolombiya’da ise uyuşturucu yolsuzluğunun
zirve yapmış olduğu 1980’lerde uyuşturucu kaçakçısı Pablo Escobar’un hükümet
temsilcilerini rüşvet ile suikasta maruz kalma tercihleri arasında bırakmıştır.
Benzer bir durum ise 1978-82 yılları arasında Kolombiya’da gözlenmiştir. Ülkedeki
kokain trafiğini idare eden Carlos Lehder, Bahama Hükümeti temsilcilerine verdiği
yüklü miktardaki nakit karşılığında uyuşturucu trafiğinin güvenliğini teminat
altına almıştır. Bakama Araştırma Komisyon tarafından 1984’te hazırlanan bir
raporda hükümetin dahil olduğu uyuşturucu-yolsuzluk ilişkisi ortaya konmuştur.
Bahama Özgür Ulusal Hareket Partisi lideri Kendal Issacs ise ülke vatandaşları
arasındaki yaygın uyuşturucu kullanımının ve hükümeti elinde tutan İlerici
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Volume:2 Number:4
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Osman Şahin & Erkan Demirbaş
Liberal Parti içindeki ileri düzeydeki yolsuzluğu ülke için bir ciddi bir şok olarak
değerlendirmektedir (Singer, 2008: 474).
Myanmar örneğinde ise yakalama ve tutuklama olaylarında son yıllarda
önemli düzeyde gelişmeler olmasına karşın, bir takım faktörler uyuşturucuyla
mücadeleye mani olmaktadır. Hükümete göre, kanun uygulayıcı kurumlar, ateşkes
yapılan gruplarca kontrol edilen bölgelerde etkili olamamaktadır. Bunun yanında
uyuşturucu tacirlerini sürekli farklı yöntemler kullanması, güvenlik noktalarının
yetersizliği, yerel düzeyde bazı görevlilerin yapmış olduğu gizli anlaşmalar da
kontrolün azalmasına neden olmaktadır (UNODC, 2013: 64).
Ampirik bir çalışmada ise (Aslan, 2011) iç savaş ve yolsuzluk ile yasadışı afyon
ve kokain üretimi arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Panel data metodunun kullanıldığı
çalışmada 1990-2008 yılları için 131 ülkeye ait veriler analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen
sonuçlar, iç savaş faktörünün yasadışı afyon ve kokain üretimi üzerinde etkili
olduğunu; yolsuzluğun ise afyon ekiminin büyüklüğü üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi
olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır (Aslan, 2011).
Veri ve Metodoloji
Çalışmada yasadışı uyuşturucu ticareti bağımlı değişken olup kilogram cinsinden
yakalanan uyuşturucu miktarını göstermektedir. Ele geçirilen uyuşturucu
miktarları, Birleşmiş Milletlerin oluşturduğu online veri tabanından temin edilmiştir
Çalışmada ele geçirilen uyuşturucu miktarlarının doğal logaritması kullanılmıştır.
Bu çalışmanın amacı, seçilmiş ülkelerdeki yolsuzluk oranının, yasadışı uyuşturucu
ticaretine etkisini irdelemektir. Dolayısıyla yolsuzluk oranı bağımsız değişken
olarak modele dahil edilmiştir. Yolsuzlukla ilgili veriler Transparency Institution
tarafından hazırlanan Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI)’ten elde edilmiştir.
CPI, ülkeleri bölgeleri, ülkenin kamu kesiminin nasıl yolsuz olduğu algısını ölçen
anketlere dayanılarak bir sıralamaya koymaktadır. Karma bir endeks olan CPI,
yolsuzlukla ilgili uzman verileri ve iş anketlerine dayanmaktadır (http://www.
transparency.org). Endeks değerinin yükselmesi, yolsuzluğun azaldığı anlamına
gelmektedir.
Kontrol değişkenleri olarak da gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla büyüme oranı (gdp), USD
cinsinden ülkeye silah ithalatı (arm) ve internet kullanımı (itkul) oranlarının doğal
logaritmaları modelde kullanılmıştır. Adı geçen veriler, Dünya Bankası tarafından
hazırlanan World Development Indicators veri tabanından elde edilmiştir. Bu
analizde 32 ülke için 1996 ile 2006 yılları arasını kapsayan 11’er yıllık veriler
kullanılmıştır. Böylece 352 gözlem için analiz yapılmıştır.
Yatay kesit ile zaman boyutunun bir arada ele alındığı panel veri analizleri,
sadece yatay kesit ya da sadece zaman serisinde gözlenemeyen etkileri
daha iyi teşhis etmekte, daha fazla değişkenlik, değişkenler arasında daha az
doğrusallık (collinearity), daha fazla serbestlik derecesi ve tekrar eden yatay kesit
50
Politik Yolsuzluk ve Yasadışı Uyuşturucu Ticaretine Etkisi: Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma
gözlemlerle çalışabildiğinden daha uygun bir yöntemdir (Gujarati, 2003: 637638). Bundan dolayı çalışmamızda analizler panel veri analiz tekniği kullanılarak
gerçekleştirilmektedir. Çalışmada yasadışı uyuşturucu ticareti bağımlı değişken
olarak ele alınmıştır. Yasadışı ticarete konu olan uyuşturucu türleri olarak
afyon&eroin, koka&kokain, kenevir ve amfetamin türevleri (ATS) dikkate alınmıştır
(WDR, 2010). Yapılan analizlerde ele geçirilen yasa dışı uyuşturucu miktarlarının
doğal logaritması kullanılmıştır.
Seriler durağan olmadığında ortaya çıkan değişkenler arasında sahte
ilişkilerin varlığını test etmek için panel veri analizlerinde kullanılan durağanlık
testlerinden birim kök Dickey Fuller(ADF) ve Philips Peron (PP) test istatistiklerini
kullanan Levin-Lin-Chu (LLC) kullanılmıştır. LLC’de serilerde birim kök olduğunu
savunan sıfır hipotezi test edilmektedir. Yapılan testlerde genelde %1 anlamlılık
düzeyi için serilerde birim kökün varlığını iddia eden boş hipotezler ret edilmiş ve
serilerin durağan oldukları anlaşılmıştır.
Tablo 3: LLC unit root test sonuçları
Ho: Panels contain unit roots
statistic
Prob.
lndrug
-9.12175
0.0000
lngdp
-2.00017
0.0227
lnarm
-5.59767
0.0000
Lncor
-7.83779
0.0000
Lninf
-14.8723
0.0000
lnpercap
-14.6730
0.0000
Rassal etki tahmin modelinin sabit etki tahmin modeline tercih edilmesi
gerektiği yapılan Hausman testlerinde anlaşılmıştır. Bu testlerde her iki model
parametreleri arasında sistematik farklılık olmadığı boş hipotezi kabul edilmiştir.
Tablo 4: Hausman Test
Ho: Her iki model parametreleri arasında sistematik farklılık yokdur.
chi2(4)
4.59
Prob>chi2
0.3324
Breush Pagan LM test sonuçları boş hipotezlerin red edilmesi gerektiğini
göstermesi pooled OLS modeline rassal etki modelinin tercih edilmesi gerektiği
ortaya çıkarmıştır.
Tablo 5: Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test
lndrug[id,t] = Xb + u[id] + e[id,t]
chi2(4)
372.09
Prob>chi2
0.0000
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Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Osman Şahin & Erkan Demirbaş
Panel veri analizlerinde önemli problemlerden bir diğeri de farklı gözlemler
için aynı hatalar arasında ilişkiyi ifade eden oto korelasyonun olmamasıdır
(Baltagi, 2008: 64). Wooldridge (2002) yaklaşımı ve Wald testi kullanılarak yapılan
otokorelasyon testinde oto korelasyonun olmadığı şeklindeki boş hipotezler kabul
edilmiş ve dolayısıyla oto korelasyonun olmadığı anlaşılmıştır.
Tablo 6: Wooldridge test
H0: no first-order autocorrelation
F( 1, 18)
3.123
Prob > F
0.0941
Panel veride çok önemli bir problem olan farklı varyansın varlığının
araştırılmasında Stata programında düzenlenmiş wald testi kullanılmış ve değişen
varyans testlerinde model için boş hipotez ret edilmiş ve böylece değişen varyans
probleminin varlığı anlaşılmıştır. Değişen varyans problemlerinin çözümünde
T<1/2N olduğu için Period weights (PCSE) kullanılmıştır.
Tablo 7: Modified Wald test
H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all I
chi2(4)
4.2e+32
Prob>chi2
0.0000
Regresyon tahmin modelleri ve birim kök testlerinde E-views ve diğer diagnostik
testler için ise STATA istatistiki paket programlar kullanılmıştır.
Panel Veri Analizi Tahmin Sonuçları
Verileri irdelemek üzere Rassal etki tahmin modeli uygulanmış olup, buna
göre yolsuzluk değişkeninin katsayısı %10 anlamlılık düzeyinde istatistiki olarak
anlamlı çıkmaktadır. Bu katsayının olasılık değeri ise 0.071 olup, (anlamlılık
düzeyi % 10’dan küçüktür) değişkenin anlamlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bağımsız
değişkenin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olması, bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişki için
istatistiksel olarak yorum yapılabileceği anlamına gelmektedir.
Buna göre bir ülkede yolsuzluk endeksinin değeri arttıkça (yani yolsuzluk
azaldıkça), yakalanan uyuşturucu miktarı düşmekte olup, bağımlı ve bağımsız
değişkenler arasında ters yönlü bir ilişki söz konusudur. Çünkü yolsuzluk
değişkeninin katsayısının işareti negatiftir. Ülkede politik yolsuzluk endeksinin
yükselmesi (yolsuzluğun azalması) durumunda, yasadışı üretim için gerekli
koşullar sağlanmayacak olup, üretim miktarından düşüş yaşanacaktır. Ülkede
daha az üretim yapılmasının doğal yansıması olarak, ülkede ele geçirilen yasadışı
uyuşturucu miktarı düşecektir. Üretimin yapıldığı ülkeler için geçerli olan bu
durum, uyuşturucu trafiği güzergâhındaki ülkeler için de değişmeyecektir.
Kaynak ülkede daha az uyuşturucu üretilmesinin neticesinde, güzergâh üzerindeki
52
Politik Yolsuzluk ve Yasadışı Uyuşturucu Ticaretine Etkisi: Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma
ülkelerden daha az miktarda yasadışı trafik söz konusu olacak ve daha az miktarda
uyuşturucu ele geçirilecektir. Bunlara ilaveten, özellikle güzergâh ülkelerde
yolsuzluğun azalmasıyla uyuşturucu tacirlerinin yakalanma riskleri artacaktır. Bu
riski ortadan kaldırmak isteyen tacirler, daha düşük riskli rotalara yönelecektir. Bu
da ilk güzergâhta daha az miktarda uyuşturucunun transfer edilmesine ve bunun
doğal bir sonucu olarak ele geçirilen yasa dışı uyuşturucu miktarında önceki
yıllara göre bir azalma olmasına yol açacaktır. Bağımsız değişkenin katsayısına
bakıldığında ise politik yolsuzluk endeksindeki (yolsuzluktaki) % 1’lik bir artışın
(azalışın), ele geçirilen uyuşturucu miktarında % 0,7’lik bir azalmaya neden olacağı
anlaşılmaktadır.
Bir diğer bağımsız değişken olan gdp ise anlamsız çıkmıştır. Buna göre gdp,
yakalanan uyuşturucu miktarını açıklayıcı değildir. Adı geçen değişkenin anlamsız
çıkmasında, uyuşturucu tüketimini etkileyen kültür, din, kullanılabilir gelirin etkili
olmaması, bazı uyuşturucu türlerinin bireysel olarak yetiştirilebilme imkânı olması
gibi faktörler büyük önem arz etmektedir. Örneğin kültür ve inanç faktörlerinin
getirdiği kurallar doğrultusunda refah düzeyi yüksek toplumlarda uyuşturucu
tüketimine ihtiyaç duyulmayabilecektir. Ayrıca, kokainin daha çok gelir düzeyi
yüksek kesimlerin tüketmiş olduğu bir uyuşturucu türü olmasına karşın, kenevir
sıradan insanlar tarafından kırsal veya şehirler gözetilmeksizin uygun hava
koşullarının sağlandığı tüm ortamlarda üretilebilmektedir. Bundan dolayı, gdp
değişkeni ile uyuşturucu trafiği ve tüketimi arasında bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir.
Benzer şekilde bir diğer bağımsız değişken olan internet kullanımı ile uyuşturucu
arasında da ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Ancak silah ithalatı değişkeninin % 5
düzeyinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı olduğu görülmüştür. lnarm değişkeninin
katsayısının işareti pozitif olup, bağımlı değişkenle aralarında aynı yönlü bir ilişki
söz konusudur. Buna göre silah ithalatında % 1’lik bir artış, yakalanan uyuşturucu
miktarında % 0,14 oranında bir artışa neden olmaktadır. Uyuşturucu üretiminin
yapıldığı ülkelerin iç savaş içerisinde olması, silah ithalatını zorunlu kılmaktadır. Bu
anlamda silah ticareti devam ettikçe, iç savaş devam edecek ve bu da uyuşturucu
imalatına uygun zemin hazırlayacaktır. Üretimin artmasıyla birlikte, ele geçirilen
uyuşturucu miktarı da artabilecektir.
53
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Osman Şahin & Erkan Demirbaş
Tablo 8: Yolsuzluk ve yakalanan uyuşturucu için rassal etki tahmin modeli
Bağımlı değişken: lndrug
Örneklem:1996-2006
Bağımsız Değişkenler
β kat.
T değeri
1.640943
1.050097
lncor
-0.775705
-
lngdp
0.313692
1.519346
lnitkul
0.099933
1.294912
lnarm
0.149775
2.296364**
0.689864
13.18041*
lndrug(-1)
0.60
R
2
Adj R
0.59
F-statistic(sig)
45.12*
DW
1.875
Wooldridge(sig) AR
3.123
Restr. F. t.(sig)
2.67*
Hausman(sig)
4.59
Breush-P. 8(sig)
372.09*
Heterosc.Wald test
4.2
Gözlem sayısı
154
2
Sonuç
Politik yolsuzluğun azaltılması, ülke ekonomisinin gelişmesi ve refahın artması
açısından büyük önem arz etmektedir. Yolsuzluğun artması üzerinden beslenecek
olan çeşitli kanallar sayesinde siyasi ve ekonomik atmosfer de bozulacaktır.
Uyuşturucu trafiği ve uluslararası suçların artmasına uygun ortamların oluşmasına
imkân verilecektir.
Bu bağlamda yolsuzlukla mücadele kapsamında iyi dizayn edilmiş çeşitli politikaların
geliştirilmesi, başarılı bir şekilde uygulanması, denetimlerinin yapılarak gerekli
durumlarda revizyonlara gidilmesi gerekmektedir. Başarılı politikaların hayata
geçirilmesiyle yolsuzluk azaltılacak ve uyuşturucu trafiği sıkı bir kontrole tabi
tutulacaktır. Bu sayede; mali suçlarla mücadelede artış olacak, ülkenin CPI değeri
54
Politik Yolsuzluk ve Yasadışı Uyuşturucu Ticaretine Etkisi: Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma
yükselecek, daha cazip yatırım ortamının oluşturulmasıyla üretim ve istihdam
verilerinde gelişmeler sağlanacak, uyuşturucu imalatının yapıldığı alanlar, daha
verimli bir şekilde kullanılabilecek, bunlara ilaveten uyuşturucunun yol açtığı
birçok sağlık sorunu ciddi düzeyde azaltılarak daha sağlıklı nesiller yetişmesine
imkân sağlanacaktır.
Gelecek çalışmalarda, yolsuzluktaki değişimin yakalanan uyuşturucu miktarı
üzerindeki etkileri kısa ve uzun dönem etkileri dikkate alınarak irdelenebilir.
Ayrıca, bu çalışmadan farklı olarak yakalanan uyuşturucu miktarı yerine,
uyuşturucu üretimi bağımlı değişken olarak modelde yer alabilir. Son olarak, kukla
değişkenler kullanılarak kültür ve din faktörünün uyuşturucu ticareti üzerindeki
etkisi irdelenebilir.
Kaynakça
AIDT, Toke (2003) “Economic Analysis of Corruption: A Survey”, The Economic
Journal, vol. 113, no. 491, : 632–652.
ASLAN, Ferhat (2011) “The Relationship between the Illegal Cultivation of HardDrug Plants and Revolutionary Wars, Ethnic Conflicts, and Corruption”,
The Claremont Graduate University, basılmamış doktora tezi, 179 sayfa.
BALTAGI, Badi H. (2008) Econometrics Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. 64.
COLLIER, Michael W. (1999) “Explaining Political Corruption: An Institutional-Choice Approach”, International Studies Association, 40th Annual ConventionWashington, D.C.
FRIMAN H. Richard (2006) “Crime in the Global Economy”, Richard Stubbs and
Geoffrey R.D. Underhill (Editor), Political Economy and the Changing Global Order, 3rd edition, Don Mills, ON, Oxford University Press, : 272-285.
GUJARATI, N. Damodar (2003) Basic Econometrics. New York: McGraw Hill.
GRUBIŠA, Damir (2005) “Political Corruption in Transitional Croatia: The Pecularities of a Model”, Politička misao, vol. XLII, no. 5, : 55–74,
http://www.transparency.org/country#TUR_DataResearch, (02.11.2013).
http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/drug-trafficking/index.html. (2/11/2013).
MEIER, Kenneth J., & HOLBROOK, Thomas M. (1992) “I seen My Opportunities
and I Took ‘Em: Political Corruption in the American States”, The Journal of
Politics, vol.54, no.1, : 567-572.
PHILP, Mark (1997) “Defining Political Corruption”, Political Studies Association,
vol. XLV, : 436-462.
ROBBEN, Katrian (1997) “The Recent Debate on Curbing Political Corruption”,
EGPA Annual Conference, IOS Press.
SINGER, Merrill (2008) “Drugs and development: The global impact of drug use
and trafficking on social and economic development”, International Journal of Drug Policy, vol. 19, : 467–478.
SZEFTEL, Morris (1998) “Misunderstanding African Politics: Corruption & The
55
Volume:2 Number:4
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Osman Şahin & Erkan Demirbaş
Governance Agenda, Department of Politics”, Review of African Political
Economy, vol. 25, no.76, : 221-240,
The Internet Center for Corruption Research, “Yolsuzluk Endeksi”, http://www.
icgg.org, (11.07.2008).
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime-UNODC (2013) Transnational Organized Crime in East Asia and the Pacific a Threat Assessment, (Nisan), 192
sayfa.
UNITED NATIONS (1985) General Assembly resolutions on the control of drug trafficking, International Legal Materials, vol. 24, No. 4, pp. 1157-1169.
UNITED NATIONS (1987) International Conference on Drug Abuse And Illicit trafficking: Decisions of The Conference, International Legal Materials, Vol.
26, No. 6, pp. 1637-1724.
UNODC (2013) Transnational Organized Crime in East Asia and the Pacific a
Threat Assessment, 192 sayfa.
UNODC, Online Database, http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/
Research-Database.html.
UNODC, World Drug Report (2010) http://www.unodc.org/documents/wdr/
WDR_2010/ World_Drug_Report_2010_lo-res.pdf.
UNODC, World Drug Report, 2013, http://www.unodc.org/unodc/secured/wdr/
wdr2013/World_Drug_Report_2013.pdf.
VELLINGA, Menno (1999) “The Political Economy of the Drug Industry in the Andean Countries”, European Review of Latin American and Caribbean Studies, vol. 66, : 135-144.
WOOLDRIDGE, Jeffrey, M. (2002) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel
Data The MIT Press. Cambridge.
Ek-1: Ülke listesi
Arjantin, Azerbaycan, Belarus, Bolivya, Brezilya, Bulgaristan, Şili, Çin, Kolombiya,
Kosta Rika, Hırvatistan, Ekvator, Guatemala, Honduras, Macaristan, Hindistan,
Kazakistan, Meksika, Nikaragua, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Filipinler, Romanya,
Rusya, Tayland, Türkiye, Ukrayna, Uruguay, Özbekistan, Venezuela, Vietnam.
56
Vol:2, No:4, 57-74, December, 2013
Reconsidering Organizational Commitment Construct:
Empirical Test Of Acceptance Band
Setyabudi Indartono*
Abstract
Globalization has known to be influence on the moving from of statics to dynamic
point of view. Dynamic point of view attractively has been proposed in few studies.
Organizations’ and their members’ actions are viewed as dynamic behaviors.
They can change anytime begin to look for advantages and better opportunities
elsewhere. At an individual level, workers might change their behavior based on
their short-term opportunities i.e., manipulation action in the workplace based on
their different perceptions, attitudes, and expectations. Accordingly, exploration
of human behavior promotes new approaches to test dynamic view. This paper
test an empirical method of acceptance band and tolerance limit of commitment
proposed by Schalk and Freese (1997) based on equivalent measurement of
Cheung (2008). The result of this study showed that commitment has acceptance
band and tolerance limit based on the perception of equity. Discussion on the
implication of the findings and suggestions for future researches are discussed.
Key words: organizational commitment, perception of equity, Acceptanec band,
tolerance limit.
Introduction
Commitment is a common and important construct in studies organizational
behavior. Scholars investigated factors influence commitment at individual and
organizational level (Lok and Crawford, 2001; Gifford et al, 2002; Rashid et al.,
2003; Eaton, 2003). They define commitment antecedents such as individual
characteristics, culture, and human resource policy in practice. However, it is
difficult to generalize such findings in different contexts (Lok and Crawford,
2001; Meyer et al, 2002; Rashid et al., 2003). Most of studies are conducted
using Meyer et al, (1993) approach of commitment construct. Commitment
antecedents are divided into three basic major forms i.e., emotional attachment
and belief, perceived economic value, and ethical reasons of obligation to
organization. However, Solinger at al. (2008) criticized their conceptual model of
commitment model and invited further investigation on the consistencies of both
*
Ph. D. Management Department, Yogyakarta State University, Indonesia,
Email : setyabudi_indartono@uny.ac.id
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Setyabudi Indartono
empirical and theoretical approach of commitment phenomenon. Few studies on
employee commitment were able to explain its phenomenon clearly (Meyer et al,
2002; Rashid et al., 2003; Lok and Crawford, 2001), and there are no consensus
has been reached regarding factors that consistently constitute commitment.
Most studies of commitment are assumed that employees and their
environment were static. In fact, scholars (Desarbo and Grewal, 2008; Schalk,
1997; Alasdair, 2008) argue that organizations and their member behaviors were
changing. Hence it is plausible that previous investigations on commitment model
are argued to be failure as well as the range of behavioral change. Accordingly,
researchers have spent considerable effort attempting to develop and test the
models of commitment phenomenon within the dynamic perspective. Dynamic
behaviors are shown in several studies. Perish (2008) argued that based on shortterm opportunities, people may change their wants, needs and ought to, and
thus influence their behavior at workplace. At organizational level, Desarbo and
Grewal (2008) found that firms change their strategies by blending their strategies
from more than one pure strategic group in order to win the market competition.
According to equity theory, individuals modify their behavior based on their
perceptions of fair treatment, i.e., how one perceives the ratio of his or her inputs
to his or her outcomes to be equivalent to those around him or her. Cicekli (2008)
tried to investigate that opportunity for promotion and development influence
commitment. Chen and Indartono (2011) explored perception of organization
politics and perception of equity. However the dynamic phenomenon of those
studies has not been explained. Thus, this study is an attempt to reconcile an
empirical approach on limitation area of employees’ commitment affected by
individual and environmental change.
Theoretical Background
Organizational commitment is also a psychological construct referring to an
individual’s loyalty to the organization and its goals. Mowday, Steers, and Porter
(2006) defined organizational commitment as the degree to which an employee
identifies with, and is willing to put forth effort on behalf of, the organization. At
the beginning Mowday et al. (2006) identified three forces affecting organizational
commitment. The first is affective commitment or a positive emotional attachment
to the organization. The second dimension is normative commitment, made in
response to the normative pressure to align with the organization’s goals. The
third dimension, continuance commitment, relates to affective responses to the
rewards that are attached to organizational participation (Meyer, Allen, & Smith,
1993).
Organizational commitment is a central construct in organizational
research as a critical variable influencing many aspects of organizational life and
outcomes. Commitment to the organization, generically termed “organizational
58
Reconsidering Organizational Commitment Construct: Empirical Test Of Acceptance Band
commitment” is most often operationalized as an affective or psychological
state central to the employee-organizational relationship influencing employee
behaviors such as intent to turnover, job satisfaction, and has implications for
the employee’s decision to remain or leave the organization (Mathieu & Zajac,
1990). A key element of affective commitment is the employee-organization
goal congruence that influences positive job performance behaviors as well as
extra-role behaviors. As with the leadership framework, affective organizational
commitment links to central organizational constructs such as withdrawal,
intent to turnover, job satisfaction, job involvement, motivation, loyalty, and
leader subordinate relations (Farh, Podsakoff, & Organ, 1990; Mathieu & Zajac,
1990; Tett & Meyer, 1993). Research interest in organizational commitment was
explained by the link between commitment and key organizational outcomes
such as increased productivity, personnel stability, lower absenteeism rate, job
satisfaction, and organizational citizenship (Cohen & Vigoda, 2000).
To meet the increasing demands of unpredictable environment in which
organization operate change has been proposed in organizations. The previous
deal between employer and employee need to be replaced by a new agreement
of their mutual obligations as a win-win agreement which in turn lend to a mutual
understanding and commitment. Thus organizations and their member actions
respond to behavioral change (Schalk, 1997; Desarbo and Grewal, 2008; Alasdair,
2008). They can change anytime as they begin to look for advantages and better
opportunities elsewhere (Cool et al, 1987). For example, firms try to apply unique
strategic postures so as to reach more market structures by changing, expanding,
and blending their strategies, from more than one pure strategic group to win
the market competition (Cool et al, 1987; Desarbo and Grewal, 2008). Switching
strategy of firm, may caused business environment pressure or the demand of
firm accelerations. Moreover, Cool et al (1987) empirically identified switching of
firm’s strategy within different periods.
Workers might also change their behavior depending on external offering or
their own self desires. Individual employees believe that there has an obligation
to give certain contribution in exchange for particular inducement, and thus
this influence their commitment to work. The degree of commitment may also
change in response to certain event in the work domain (Chen and Indartono,
2011). Hence, Perish (2008) argued that based on their short-term opportunities,
workers may change their wants and needs, thus influencing their working
behavior. Desires of workers direct them to look for opportunities, for having fair
treatments from different viewpoints such as by comparing their organization
and its competitor’s compensations (Milkovich, 1999, Rhoades et al, 2001).
They respond to external offering or their own desires defensively, reactively or
protectively, to avoid actions, blaming, or changes (Judge, 2007). Thus, further
feedback based on their different perceptions, attitudes, and expectations (Debra,
59
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Setyabudi Indartono
2008). Accordingly, one’s commitment behavior is indicated to be consistent to
his/her perception or expectation. This study is aimed to test the behavior of
commitment position to deal its requirement with deep investigation on the
dimensions of commitment partially and simultaneously (Cheung, 2008).
Acceptance of Commitment
Behavioral change at the individual employee level is essential to organizational
(Porras and Robertson, 1992). However, Antoni (2004) suggest that one has to
change his/her beliefs on the organizational membership to support sustainable
organizational change. Elias (2009) noted that organizations always continue to
make adjustments and modifications at amazing rate, which in turn has effects
on the workers. These phenomena influence the commitment of workers. Their
commitment may change as a consequence of different patterns in the dynamic
psychological contract as the new deal of acceptance is created (Schalk, 1997).
This new balance of new deal is created as a reflection of input and output ratio
from employee’s rewards and their effort at work. Accordingly, both organization
and individual changes may influence on the commitment of worker within
certain band of acceptance and limit of tolerance. When ones’ commitment is
rated as well as the requirement, hence the commitment is within the acceptance
band. However, if ones’ commitment is partially consistent to the requirement,
then the commitment may be tolerated. Accordingly, ones’ commitment which is
not correspondent to the requirement, it would be rejected.
Previous empirical researchers found that commitment is influenced by
individual expectations and his/her working conditions (Mathieu & Zajac, 1990;
Meyer et al., 2002). Thus, treating people fairly causes them to be motivated well.
Equity theory introduces the concept of social comparison, whereby employees
evaluate their own input/output ratio based on comparing it with that of other
employees (Judge, 2007). Employees who perceive inequity will seek to reduce it,
either by distorting inputs and/or outcomes in their own minds, directly altering
inputs and/or outcomes, or leaving the organization. Thus, the theory has widereaching implications for employee morale, efficiency, productivity, and turnover.
O’Driscall et al (2006) indicated that employees still have commitment to the
organization as far as the band of tolerance and acceptance is concerned. This
finding was supported by Elias’ (2009). His empirical study indicated that attitude
toward environment change create an effect on commitment. This finding shows
that workers’ commitment exists within turbulence conditions of technology,
autonomy, and participative decision making. Some individuals will welcome
the alteration because it provides opportunities to broaden their professional
horizons and fulfills their growth needs, whereas others will dread change
because the implementation of such change may require extra efforts and runs
counter to their external motives for employment. Therefore based on equity
60
Reconsidering Organizational Commitment Construct: Empirical Test Of Acceptance Band
theory and commitment phenomena on the change environment, this study
proposed that worker’s commitment behavior is percept able to be accepted and
sometimes could be tolerated by others.
Equity theory suggested that the perception of fairness are a job related
motivational based that can influence the behavioral and affective responses
of job in terms of perceptions of fair/unfair distributions of resources within
interpersonal relationships. Although worker’s perception of equity has an
impact on organizational commitment (Lemons et al, 2001; N’Goala, 2007),
empirically, researchers found these relationships were varying (Tansky et al,
1997; Lemons et al, 2001; N’Goala, 2007). Different worker’s behaviors, ages,
tenure, worker’s work status, for instance, made this relationship more diverse.
When uncertainty require new deal of tolerance and acceptance, this band will
be viewed as an expanded equity. Workers will ask fairness of treatment within
dynamic conditions by sharing the opportunities and getting compensated for
the extra effort, which in turn affect commitment. Thus, the deal to be treated
fairly is in line with the process of creating new balance from different patterns
in dynamic conditions. Therefore, this study would like to predict different level
of commitment which is controlled by one substantial psychological situation, i.e.
perception of equity.
Methods
To deal with the objective of this study, the method of measurement equivalence
is used. Perception of equity as a control variable is used to discriminate the
level of commitment investigated. Hence, measurement equivalence analysis is
need. Furthermore, theory of commitment is divided as three basic dimensions;
normative, affective, and continuance commitment. Hence second order analysis
is needed. Measurement invariance or measurement equivalence is a statistical
property of measurement that indicates that the same construct is being
measured across some specified groups.
Measurement equivalence
Measurement equivalence is now more than ever a general concern in
organizational studies. It is not only examined in cross-cultural research but also
in comparisons of participants with different levels of academic achievement
from different industries, of different sexes, in experimental versus control
groups, and in comparisons between self-and supervisor-ratings of performance
(Cheung, 1999). However, despite the common use of second-order constructs
in organizational studies, the procedures for examining the measurement
equivalence of second-order constructs are not commonly known.
Cheung (2008) indicated that many cross-cultural researchers are concerned
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Volume:2 Number:4
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Setyabudi Indartono
with factorial invariance; that is, whether or not members of different cultures/
behavioral associate survey items, or similar measures, with similar constructs.
Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) that become common in the last 30 years,
usually used to test items for factorial invariance however, poses certain problems
that must be dealt with. Researchers cannot determine whether or not partial
factorial invariance is appropriate unless they can identify the non-invariant
items, and determine the extent of their departure from invariance (that is,
the extent to which their factor loadings actually differ across groups). There
are several procedures for providing standardization; unfortunately, those in
current use may produce incomplete and misleading tests of factorial invariance.
The extended procedure (Cheung, 1999) solves the standardization problem by
performing a systematic comparison of all pairs of factor loadings across groups.
Cross-cultural data are frequently collected at the individual level using surveys,
can be compared across cultures. However, it must be shown that subjects from
different cultures/behavior ascribed essentially the same meanings to the survey
items.
Duplicating the Cheung procedure (Cheung, 2008), one of the most
consistently difficult problems in cross cultural organizational research has been
trying to resolve measurement equivalence issues. Measurement equivalence is
needed to ensure that their measurement scales are comparable across samples.
They should interpret in the same way and related to the constructs being
measured equally well. The equivalence condition is most frequently of interest.
It is a necessary condition for comparisons across groups. Factorial invariance
is a critical issue in cross-cultural studies. Hofstede’s analysis defined four initial
dimensions of national culture that were positioned against analysis of 40 initial
countries. It may explain the assertion of its analysis. Hofstede’s model explain
national cultural differences and their consequences (Hofstede, 1978). Without
it, interpretations of differences across cultures are problematical, since it is not
established that members of different groups are using the same conceptual
frames of reference when responding to survey items. Therefore, a series of tests
for factorial invariance should be a prerequisite for any cross-cultural comparison.
Byrne, Shavelson, and Muthen (1989) provided a powerful procedure
for testing factorial invariance. The procedure, however, requires a choice of
referent to identify the model. This choice, while seemingly incidental, is actually
crucial to obtaining accurate results. Any referent can be used when testing for
full factorial invariance, but the use of different referents may lead to different
results when testing for invariance at the item level. Hence, the choice of referent
affects identification of the non-invariant items, which in turn affects subsequent
comparisons of factor means and of structural models across groups. Reise et al.
(1993) recommend that the choice of referents not be made arbitrarily, but rather
be supported by past studies. However, many researchers are not aware of this
62
Reconsidering Organizational Commitment Construct: Empirical Test Of Acceptance Band
recommendation and choose referents without offering any rationale for their
choices.’ The new procedure may identify more than one invariant set related to
each construct. Cheung (1999) proposed extensions to the standard procedures
used to test for factorial invariance (Byrne et al., 1989). These extensions test all
combinations of items and referents for invariance, leading to the identification
of sets of invariant items. Higher-order constructs are mega concepts that include
several dimensions and facets, such as organizational commitment comprising
of normative, affective, and continuance commitment (Meyer, Allen, & Smith,
1993). Although measurement equivalence for first-order constructs is usually
considered to be a measurement issue, hypotheses on measurement equivalence
for higher-order constructs with substantive meanings and theoretical foundations
may be more frequently encountered.
Various approaches, such as item response theory, generalizability theory,
and structural equation modeling, have been proposed to examine measurement
equivalence for first -order constructs, although tests that are based on SEM
appear to be the current best practice (Cheung, 2008). Because many studies
have used SEM-based higher-order factor analysis to examine the measurement
properties of their higher-order constructs, it is natural that SEM-based tests be
extended to the measurement equivalence of first-and higher-order constructs.
Although a few studies have examined the measurement equivalence of higherorder constructs with SEM, they have only involved specific forms of measurement
equivalence and have not provided a comprehensive review of the procedures for
such testing (Cheung, 2008). Higher-order constructs, cross-group comparisons
of higher-order constructs can be used to examined the latent mean difference
of the lower-and higher order constructs across groups, equivalent relationship
between higher-order constructs and other constructs across groups, and
consistencies of relative strength of the relationships between lower-and higherorder constructs across groups. According to the change in both organizations
and individuals, commitment of workers may accept within certain of band and
tolerate within certain of limit. The form of new deal of commitment is reflected
by the balance of equity. Thus, this investigation using Cheung procedure may
increase the rigor of cross-cultural for both first order and second order construct
of commitment model within dynamic perspective.
Samples
This study collected sample data from various businesses. The result of data
collection shows that 261 respondents out of 500 completed the survey,
representing an overall 52.2% response rate. Average age and work experience
for respondents were approximately 36.5 years old and work for 7.7 years
respectively. Table 1 shows the demographic characteristics of sample.
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Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Setyabudi Indartono
Table 1
Demographic statistics
%
Education
Colleges
38
14.6
120
46
Master Degree
52
19.9
Doctorate Degree
12
4.6
Managerial
97
37.2
Staff
164
62.8
Male
151
57.9
Female
110
42.1
Single
112
42.9
Married
149
57.1
Graduate Degree
Position
Sex
Family Status
Measurement development
Items were either developed by the authors or obtained from previous research.
After a review of wording, content, and so forth, 50 item sets were retained for
inclusion in the instrument. Responses were made on a 5-point Likert type scale
with scale anchors ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree).
Latent Construct
Commitment was measured using 12 items taken from Meyer et al (1993) and
adopted by Chinen and Enomoto (2004). The measurement included 5 items
of affective commitment, 5 items of normative commitment and 2 items of
continuance commitment. The sample question asked to the participants was “I
feel a strong sense of belonging to company”. A Five-point likert-type scale was
used, and the individual items were averaged (Cronbach’s alpha =.888).
Control Variable
Perception of equity was measured using 6 items taken from Janssen (2001). The
sample question asked to the participants was “The rewards I receive are not
proportional to my investments”. A Five-point likert-type scale was used, and the
individual items were averaged (Cronbach’s alpha = .893).
64
Reconsidering Organizational Commitment Construct: Empirical Test Of Acceptance Band
Results
To examine the hypothesis proposed, this study investigates the overall response
of commitment, and split the response of commitment into acceptance, tolerance
and reject category. The commitment categories were tested using two groups
with different perception of equity. Hence the different perception of equity was
used to examine equivalent model of each commitment category. Measurement
equivalence was tested by comparing the fit of the unconstrained model with the
fit of the model with equivalence constraints. Specifically, the Likelihood Ratio
Test was employed: that is, the χ2 of the unconstrained model was compared with
the χ2 of the constrained model.
Replicated to Cheung (2008) procedures, table 2 shows that configural
equivalence was supported for the first-order constructs. Configural equivalence
which is also known as weak factorial invariance exists when the number of
constructs and the particular observed variables that are associated with each
construct are the same across groups. When configural equivalence does not exist,
cross-group comparisons on construct means and structural relations become
problematical because the constructs are substantially different across groups.
The model fits the data well for both perception of equity and low one. Because
the χ2 of the model with equality constraints on the factor loadings across groups
(Model 4) was not significantly larger than that of the configural equivalence
model (Model 3: Δχ2 with 77 Δdf =103.74, p<.05), full metric equivalence was
accepted. To increase the acceptance of metric equivalence, partial equivalence
was tested. Items that have nonequivalent factor loadings were identified by the
factor-ratio method that is described in Cheung and Rensvold (1999). Specifically,
for each first-order construct, one item was used as the referent item, and other
items were test done by one for equivalent factor loading. It was found that item
1, 5 and 11 had non equivalent factor loadings across groups. A partial metric
equivalence model was then established by constraining the factor loading so fall
of the items, except for item 1, 5, and 11, to be equivalent across groups (Model
5). The partial metric equivalence model fit the data well, and the difference in
the chi-square between this model and the configural equivalence model was
not significant (Δχ2 with 21 Δdf =16.24, p<.01). This partial metric equivalence
was accepted. This partial metric equivalence model (Δχ2 /Δdf=.77) lower than
full metric equivalence (Δχ2 /Δdf=1.35) was then used to test other equivalence
hypotheses.
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December 2013
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Table 2
First order measurement equivalent of commitment response
Model Test
M1. Model group
1
M2. Model group
2
M3. Configuration
equivalent
M4. Metric equivalent
M5. Partial metric
equivalent
M6. Uniqueness
equivalent
M7. Equivalent in
construct variance
M8. Equivalent in
construct covariance
M9. Scalar equivalent
Un constrained
vs.
constrained
model
c2
df
Dc2
Ddf
RMSEA
NNFI
CFI
SRMR
94.42
50
0.089
0.94
0.95
0.084
97.17
48
0.083
0.95
0.96
0.062
141.17
48
0.086
0.95
0.96
0.06
M4 vs. M3
244.91
125
103.74
77
0.086
0.950
0.950
0.090
M5 vs. M3
157.41
69
16.24
21
0.099
0.930
0.930
0.100
M6 vs. M3
157.41
69
16.24
21
0.086
0.930
0.930
0.100
M7 vs. M3
142.45
69
1.28
21
0.091
0.940
0.940
0.970
M8 vs. M3
142.45
69
1.28
21
0.091
0.940
0.940
0.970
M9 vs. M3
164.35
83
23.18
35
0.087
0.950
0.950
0.088
Uniqueness variance is the portion of the variance of an observed variable
that is not attributable to the variance of the underlying construct. Therefore,
testing for the equality of uniqueness variance, may be used to determine
whether the observed variables measure the constructs with the same degree
of measurement error across groups. However, as SEM has partialed out
measurement errors when estimating other parameters, this test is not necessary
unless there are theoretical interests in testing for equivalent measurement
errors. The uniqueness equivalence model fit the data well, and the difference
in the chi-square between this model and the configural equivalence model was
not significant (Δχ2 with 21 Δdf =16.24, p<.01).This uniqueness equivalence was
accepted.
Equivalence in construct variance, the variances of constructs are sometimes
compared to examine whether the variability in constructs is equal across groups.
Equivalence in construct variance must be supported before researchers can
compare construct correlation across groups (Byrne, 1994). The equivalence in
construct variance model also fit the data well, and the difference in the chisquare between this model and the configural equivalence model was not
significant (Δχ2 with 21 Δdf =1.28, p<.01).This equivalence in construct variance
was accepted.
66
Reconsidering Organizational Commitment Construct: Empirical Test Of Acceptance Band
Equivalence in construct covariance reflects the strength of the relationships
among the constructs. Cross-group comparisons of covariance are preferred to
comparisons of correlation, because correlation is standardized within groups and
therefore has different units across groups (Singh, 1995). Instead of comparing
the strength of the relationships among constructs, structural relationships are
sometimes compared across groups. The equivalence in construct covariance
model also fit the data well, and the difference in the chi-square between this
model and the configural equivalence model was not significant (Δχ2 with 21 Δdf
=1.28, p<.01).This equivalence in construct covariance was accepted.
Scalar equivalence, (Mullen, 1995) is operationalized as the equality of the
item intercepts across groups. Non equivalent intercepts are observed when
participants in one group systematically give high error lower responses than do
participants in another group, which results in a scale displacement. This may
be because of differences in the expectations that are related to each level of
the measurement scale. If the equivalence of factor loadings is rejected for an
item (the slopes are different), then non equivalent intercepts are also assumed
(the origins are different). The scalar equivalence model fit the data well, and the
difference in the chi-square between this model and the configural equivalence
model was not significant (Δχ2 with 23.18, Δdf =35, p<.01).This scalar equivalence
was accepted.
Equivalence in construct means. Some researchers (Meredith, 1993) advise
that a comparison of construct means is only meaningful under strong factorial
invariance, that is, when from metric and scalar equivalence can be established.
The means and standard deviations of the first-order constructs that were
estimated in Model 10 are reported in Table 3. The equivalence of latent means
was tested for each construct independently. The means of affective, normative,
and continuance commitment of a group responses high on perception of equity
were all significantly higher than their counterparts.
Table 3
Mean and standard deviations of first order constructs
Low PoE
High PoE
Mean (SD)
Mean (SD)
Affective Commitment**
3.2743 (.836)
3.6441 (.743)
Normative Commitment
3.0602 (.803)
3.1878 (.676)
Continuance Commitment
3.1150 (1.02)
3.1824 (.948)
** Means are significantly different with p < .001
The second-order constructs, commitment concepts, were then examined
for measurement equivalence across the two groups, and the results are shown
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Volume:2 Number:4
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Setyabudi Indartono
in Table 4. Partial metric equivalence and partial scalar equivalence on the firstorder constructs were imposed when examining measurement equivalence for
the second-order constructs. Hence, Model 11 is a stacked second-order factor
model with constraints on the first-order constructs, as in Model 9. Fit indices
for Model 11 show that the model fit the data well, which implies configural
equivalence for the second-order constructs. Metric equivalence on the secondorder constructs was tested by constraining the g to be not equivalent across
groups (Model 12), and the results show that metric equivalence was accepted
(Δχ2 with 78 Δdf = 116.16, p<0.01). Test result of uniqueness equivalent, equivalent
in construct variance and Scalar equivalent on table 4 shows that Y, F, and a to be
not equivalent across groups (Model 14 to 18).
Table 4
Measurement equivalent test for second order construct of commitment
UC vs C*
Model Test
model
M11. Configuration equivalent
c2
df
Dc2
97.07
44
213.23
122
116.16
Ddf
RMSEA
NNFI
CFI
SRMR
0.068
0.970
0.980
0.050
78
0.076
0.960
0.960
0.085
M12. Metric
equivalent
M4 vs. M3
M14. Partial metric equivalent
M5 vs. M3
M15. Uniqueness
equivalent
M6 vs. M3
213.23
122
116.16
78
0.076
0.960
0.960
0.085
M16. Equivalent
in construct variance
M7 vs. M3
213.23
122
116.16
78
0.076
0.960
0.960
0.085
M18. Scalar equivalent
M9 vs. M3
204.07
119
107
75
0.074
0.960
0.970
0.085
*Unconstrained v.s. constrained model
Equal to the test procedure of general of commitment construct, test of
measurement equivalent on the model of commitment for acceptance, tolerance
and rejection category, was shown in table 5. Different model of commitment
acceptance are tested within configuration, metric, uniqueness, construct
variance, construct-covariance and Scalar model equivalent. Table 5 shows that
only equivalent in construct variance and construct covariance of rejection area
of commitment were to be significant. Commitment model at the acceptance
response shows that metric equivalent to be not significant (Δχ2 with 78 Δdf
=128.38, p<.01), hence metric equivalence was accepted. Uniqueness equivalent
is not significant (Δχ2 with 78 Δdf =128.38, p<.01), hence uniqueness equivalence
was accepted. Equivalent in construct variance is not significant (Δχ2 with 78
Δdf =127.37, p<.01), hence equivalence in construct variance was accepted.
Equivalent in construct covariance is not significant (Δχ2 with 78 Δdf =127.37,
68
Reconsidering Organizational Commitment Construct: Empirical Test Of Acceptance Band
p<.01), hence equivalence in construct covariance was accepted. Hence the
equivalent test of acceptance model of commitment was accepted.
Commitment model at the tolerance response shows that metric equivalent
to be not significant (Δχ2 with 81 Δdf =106.71, p<.01), hence metric equivalence
was accepted. Uniqueness equivalent is not significant (Δχ2 with 81 Δdf =106.71,
p<.01), hence uniqueness equivalence was accepted. Equivalent in construct
variance is not significant (Δχ2 with 81 Δdf =94.62, p<.01), hence equivalence
in construct variance was accepted. Equivalent in construct covariance is not
significant (Δχ2 with 81 Δdf =94.62, p<.01), hence equivalence in construct
covariance was accepted. Scalar equivalent is not significant (Δχ2 with 35 Δdf
=8.99, p<.01), hence scalar equivalence was accepted. Hence based on Cheung
(2008) the equivalent test of tolerance model of commitment was accepted.
Commitment model at the rejected response shows that metric equivalent
to be not significant (Δχ2 with 78 Δdf =114.87, p<.01), hence metric equivalence
was accepted. Uniqueness equivalent is not significant (Δχ2 with 78 Δdf =114.87,
p<.01), hence uniqueness equivalence was accepted. Equivalent in construct
variance (Δχ2 with 22 Δdf =113.96, p<.01) and equivalent in construct covariance
(Δχ2 with 22 Δdf =113.96, p<.01) are not significant, hence the construct variance
and covariance were not equivalent across the two groups. Scalar equivalent
is not significant (Δχ2 with 32 Δdf =32.7, p<.01), hence scalar equivalence was
accepted. Accordingly based on Cheung (2008) the equivalent test of rejected
response of commitment was accepted.
Table 5
First order measurement equivalent of acceptance, tolerance and rejection of
commitment response
Acceptance
Model Test
Equivalent
c2
df
Tolerance
Dc2
Ddf
c2
Rejection
df
Dc2
Ddf
c2
df
Dc2
Ddf
M1. Model group 1
76.25
51
64.65 48
105.9
51
M2. Model group 2
97.95
51
66.91 48
85.42
51
M3. Configuration
101.25
51
85.42 48
124.5
51
M4. Metric
229.63
129
128.38 78
192.1 129
106.71
81 239.4
129
114.87
78
M6. Uniqueness
229.63
129
128.38 78
192.1 129
106.71
81 239.4
129
114.87
78
M7. construct
variance
228.62
129
127.37 78
180
129
94.62
81 238.5** 29
113.96
22
M8. construct
covariance
228.62
129
127.37 78
180
129
94.62
81 238.5** 29
113.96
22
32.7
32
M9. Scalar
94.41 83
8.99
35 157.2
83
Table 6 provides information regarding the band of acceptance and the limit
of tolerance for both first and second ordered construct. The equivalent of latent
means was tested for each construct independently. The means different between
the acceptances areas of commitment for group which is has high perception
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December 2013
Setyabudi Indartono
of equity and their counterpart are found significant. Thus, for all commitment
dimension; affective commitment, normative and continuance commitment,
commitment has significantly has different level of acceptance depended on
response for perception of equity.
Table 6
Mean Different and standard error difference of first and second order constructs
Low PoE
Area
Affective Commitment
Normative Commitment
Continuance
Commitment
Commitment
High PoE
Mean
difference
S.E.
Difference
p*
Mean
difference
S.E.
Difference
p*
Acceptance
Tolerance
0.67
0.203
.001
0.87
0.118
.000
Acceptance
Rejection
1.82
0.243
.000
2.08
0.189
.000
Tolerance
Rejection
1.15
0.150
.000
1.21
0.158
.000
Acceptance
Tolerance
1.02
0.159
.000
0.94
0.105
.000
Acceptance
Rejection
2.23
0.185
.000
1.96
0.156
.000
Tolerance
Rejection
1.21
0.120
.000
1.02
0.134
.000
Acceptance
Tolerance
0.99
0.288
.001
0.85
0.202
.000
Acceptance
Rejection
1.81
0.319
.000
1.53
0.309
.000
Tolerance
Rejection
0.82
0.220
.000
0.68
0.233
.004
Acceptance
Tolerance
0.86
0.100
.000
0.91
0.070
.000
Acceptance
Rejection
1.96
0.130
.000
1.998
0.120
.000
Tolerance
Rejection
1.10
0.770
.000
1.09
0.920
.000
Conclusion
Theoretical and empirical implication
Although few scholars challenged or supported this idea, the initial perspective
of commitment phenomenon proposed by Schalk (1997), was needed for further
empirical support. Hence the result of this study successfully provides implications
at least on several points. Work environment was acknowledged, commonly
changes both at organizational and individual level, therefore, commitment
investigation based on dynamic point has better rational explanations. Theory of
equity explains how employees respond to situations such as which they believe
there are being under- or over-rewarded compared with a referent individual
carrying out similar tasks, hence workers always try to gain better advantages than
before and past experiences. As a result, they try to change and grow, within the
process to settle towards in other comfort zone situation (Alasdair, 2008; Perish,
2008) until new deal of commitment phenomenon are found. The phenomena
consist of acceptance band, tolerance limit and rejection border of commitment
70
Reconsidering Organizational Commitment Construct: Empirical Test Of Acceptance Band
The use of measurement issues using equivalence analysis contribute to
the advancement of a procedure to test construct invariance for both first order
and second order measurement. At least, using test equivalence procedure this
study was able to clearly define the parameters for both order constructs and the
relationship among the factors. Hence, According to Cheung (2008), the framework
can assist researchers to develop their hypotheses and analytical strategies to
answer relationship among second order construct across group, the strength of
the relationship between the lower and higher order construct equivalent across
group, and latent means of the higher order construct equivalent across groups.
This advanced procedure of testing measurement also successfully demonstrated
and compared second order constructs across groups based on simple average
scores. Commitment included affective, normative and continuance commitment
in the first order latent construct was successfully compressed as a single
construct on second order level. Thus, both items and latent constructs in first
order represented single commitment construct, significantly. This investigation
was also able to strengthen the commitment model of Meyer and Allen (1993).
Limitation and future research direction
Notwithstanding these contributions, this study has several limitations. This
finding invites consistent investigation of commitment within dynamic point of
view. It may able to ground the perspectives of commitment. The crucial issue of
commitment is important to maintain worker’s behavior that link to their work.
Therefore, crafting the point of commitment agreement is needed to deal with
uncertainty within organization and individual psychological contract and to find
new equilibrium mutual obligation. Thus the communication between workers
and employers was the other issue of mutual understanding and obligations.
Perception of equity is parts of workers behavior. Hence, other specific
behavior and attitude of workers may be explored to test the coverage of
commitment, such as absenteeism, job and other form of satisfaction, job
involvement, work motivation, stress and conflict, work load and so on. Risk
taker worker was missed in investigation. Their behavior is commonly known
as a specific worker behavior. Their characters will promote the taking of every
opportunity available at workplace. Therefore, the investigation on risk taker
behavior may be able to distinguish the different effects on commitment.
Similarly, Hofstadter’s dimensions, or worker demographics perceptions, was out
of investigation as well as specifics offers. Different values and characteristics of
workers are strongly predicted to relate to commitment differently.
Additional longitudinal studies are needed to compare this finding. It is
also useful to explain the prediction of commitment changes and conclusion.
Hierarchical analysis of workers within different level of group such as units of
organization, between organization and business level, will also be attractive
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Setyabudi Indartono
to investigate. Sub employment condition such as profit versus non-profit
organizations, private versus public sectors, and home versus host country of
strategic perspectives should become future invited explorations.
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Örgütsel Kimlik Algısı, Örgütsel Bağlılık ve Örgütsel
Vatandaşlık Davranışı Arasındaki İlişkinin Belirlenmesine
Yönelik Bir Araştırma
ŞirinAtakan-Duman*
Ayşın Paşamehmetoğlu**
Ahmet Burak Poyraz***
Özet
Bu çalışma örgüt çalışmalarında sıkça ele alınan iki önemli kavram olan örgütsel
bağlılık ve örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı arasındaki ilişki, daha önce bu iki
kavram ile aynı çalışmada ele alınmamış bir başka kavram olan örgütsel kimlik
ile incelenmektedir. Kökeni sosyal kimlik teorisine dayanan örgütsel kimlik
kavramı, bir kurumun farklılaşan ve kendine özgü yönlerine vurgu yaparak diğer
kurumlardan ayrıştıran bilişsel bir sınıflama ortaya koymaktadır. Örgütsel kimlik
algısı yüksek bireyler örgüt ile özdeşleşmekte ve bağlılık düzeyi artarak örgütsel
vatandaşlık davranışları sergilemektedir. Çalışma verileri Ankara ilinde yer alan 23
lisenin çalışanlarından toplanmıştır. Çalışmaya 952 kişi anket formunu doldurarak
katkı sağlamıştır. Çalışanların örgütsel kimlik algıları Stoner, Perrewe ve Hofacker
(2011) tarafından geliştirilen Çok Boyutlu Kimlik Ölçeği ile belirlenmiştir Diğer
çalışma verileri Meyer ve Allen (1997) tarafından geliştirilen Örgütsel Bağlılık
Ölçeği ve Hoffman ve çalışma arkadaşları (2007) tarafından geliştirilen Örgütsel
Vatandaşlık Ölçekleri kullanılarak elde edilmiştir. Çalışma hipotezleri ve modeli
Sosyal Bilimlerde istatistiksel analizler için yaygın olarak kullanılan LISREL izlek
analizi (path analysis) ile test edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları çalışma modelinin
istatistiksel açıdan mükemmel çalıştığını ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma sonuçları
örgütsel kimlik algısının güçlenmesi sonucunda örgütsel bağlılığın arttığını ve
güçlü örgütsel kimlik algısına sahip çalışanların örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışlarını
sergilediklerini ortaya koymuştur.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Sosyal kimlik teorisi, örgütsel kimlik, örgütsel bağlılık, örgütsel
vatandaşlık.
Assistant Professor, Turgut Özal University.
Assistant Professor, Özyeğin University.
***
Research Assistant, Turgut Özal University.
*
**
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Şirin Atakan-Duman, Ayşın Paşamehmetoğlu, Ahmet Burak Poyraz
An Analysis of the Relationship Between Organizational
Identity Perceptions, Organizational Commitment and
Organizational Citizenship Behavior
Abstract
In this study the relationship between organizational commitment and
organizational citizenship behavior was examined by investigating their
relationship with organizational identification. Organizational identity construct
that stems from social identity theory. Organizational identity while stressing the
unique norms and values of the organization, it is believed to create a state of
belonging, which might contribute to the organizational commitment level of
employees thus they will engage in organizational citizenship behavior. Data of the
study were collected from 23 high schools in Ankara. A total of 952 respondents
were contributed to the study. The organizational identification perceptions
of individuals were identified by Multi-Dimensional Identification Scale that
was developed by Stoner, Perrewe and Hofacker (2011). The organizational
commitment level of the individuals was measured by Organizational Commitment
Scale, which was developed by Meyer and Allen (1997) and finally organizational
citizenship behavior of individuals was determined with Organizational Citizenship
Behavior Scale, which was developed by Hoffman and coauthors (2007). In order
to test the study model and study hypotheses path analysis was conducted. The
results of the path analysis indicate that the study model had statistically good
fit. Study results revealed that the sense of organizational identification have a
positive effect on individuals’ predispositions of organizational commitment and
organizational citizenship behavior.
Keywords: Social identity theory, organizational identity, organizational
commitment, organizational citizenship behavior.
Giriş
Sosyal Kimlik Teorisi çalışmaları 1970’lerde gelişmeye başlamıştır ancak
kimi çalışmalarda tekrar ele alınmaya başlamış ve yakın zamanda popülarite
kazanmıştır. (Albert et.al., 2000; David et.al., 2005; Korte, 2007; Ybema et.al.,
2012). Sosyal kimlik teorisi çalışmaları örgüt kimliği kavramının anlaşılmasına
ve gelişmesine katkı sağlamıştır. Örgüt çalışmalarında örgüt kimliği kavramının
çalışılmaya başlanmasıyla birlikte örgüt olgusunun daha detaylı olarak anlaşılması
mümkün olmuştur ancak bu çalışmaların halen sayıca sınırlı olduklarını söylemek
mümkündür. Birçok farklı çalışma alanı örgüt kimliği kavramına ilgi duymuş ve
kavram farklı analiz düzeylerinde ve farklı boyutlarıyla ele alarak literatüre katkı
sağlamışlardır (Cornelissen et.al., 2007).
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Örgütsel Kimlik Algısı, Örgütsel Bağlılık ve Örgütsel Vatandaşlık Davranışı Arasındaki
İlişkinin Belirlenmesine Yönelik Bir Araştırma
Örgüt kimliği kavramı, Henri Tajfel’in (1974, 1978) Sosyal Kimlik Teorisi
çalışmalarına dayanmaktadır. Teoriye göre bireyler diğerlerinin yaş, cinsiyet, dini
inanış gibi belirli bir gruba aidiyeti ile ortaya çıkan çeşitli benlik sınıflamalarına göre
kendilerini konumlandırdıkları bir kolektif kimlik oluştururlar (Ashforth ve Mael,
1989). Diğer bir çok gruba bağlı oluşturulabileceği gibi birey kimliğini çalışmakta
olduğu örgüte de aidiyet geliştirerek ortaya koyabilmektedir. Voss ve çalışma
arkadaşları (2006: 741) örgütsel kimliği; ‘bir örgüte dair en temel, en belirleyici
ve en sürekli inanışların toplamı’ olarak tanımlamıştır (Albert ve Whetten, 1985,
Whetten ve Mackey 2002).
Örgütsel davranış çalışmalarının ortaya koyduğu üzere, örgüt kimliği o
kuruma üye olan bireylerin davranışlarını etkileyen çok güçlü bir kurgu olarak
ortaya çıkmaktadır (Ashforth ve Mael, 1989). Bu çalışmalardan bir kısmı örgüt
kimliği ile çalışan tatmini, bağlılığı ve genel örgütsel etkililik gibi olumlu örgütsel
çıktılar arasında ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır (Brown, 1969; Lee, 1971;
Ashforth ve Mael, 1989).
Literatürde çok sayıda çalışma örgütsel bağlılığın öncülleri ve sonuçlarını
ele almaktadır (Brammer et.al., 2007). Bu çalışmalar, örgütsel bağlılık kavramının
farklı boyutlarına odaklanmaktadırlar. Benzer şekilde örgütsel vatandaşlık
kavramının da ele alındığı çok sayıda çalışmaya rastlamak mümkündür. Ancak
tek bir model ile örgütsel kimlik algısının örgütsel bağlılık ve örgütsel vatandaşlık
davranışı arasındaki ilişkilerin ele alındığı bir çalışmaya rastlanmamıştır. Bu çalışma
ile literatürdeki bu boşluğun doldurulması hedeflenmektedir.
2. Çalışmanın Teorik Alt Yapısı
Örgüt kimliği kavramı, kurum çalışanlarının kaynağını kuruma dair kimlik algısından
alan bir aidiyet duygusu geliştirdiklerini ortaya koymaktadır. İlgili yazın örgütsel
aidiyetin kurum için çeşitli olumlu sonuçlar ortaya koyacağını ileri sürmektedir.
Ancak sosyal kimlik teorisinden kaynağını alan örgütsel kimlik çalışmaları oldukça
sınırlıdır ve bu kavramı çeşitli örgütsel sonuçlarla ilişkilendiren çalışmalar yok
denecek kadar azdır. Literatürdeki bu boşluğa yönelik olarak bu çalışma iki önemli
örgütsel çıktı olan örgütsel bağlılık ve örgütsel vatandaşlık kavramlarının ilişkisine
odaklanmaktadır ve örgütsel kimlik kavramı çerçevesinden bu ilişkiyi ele almaya
çalışmaktadır.
2.1. Örgütsel Kimlik
Sosyal kimlik kavramı köklerini Tajfel’in (1974) bireylerin belirli bir gruba atfettikleri
duygusal değer veya bu gruba aidiyet olarak tanımladığı çalışmasından almaktadır
(Tajfel, 1978; Hogg ve Terry, 2001). Bu aidiyet hissi o grubun bir üyesi olmakla ilgi
değildir daha çok bireyin duygusal olarak bağlanmasıdır (Greene, 2004). Başka
bir ifadeyle, sosyal kimlik teorisi bireyin kendini tanımlamak için duygusal olarak
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Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Şirin Atakan-Duman, Ayşın Paşamehmetoğlu, Ahmet Burak Poyraz
bağlı olduğu sosyal sınıfın özelliklerini kullandığı kimliğe odaklanmaktadır (Hogg
ve Terry, 2001). Bu nedenle sosyal kimlik yaştan mesleki gruba kadar çok farklı
sosyal sınıflardan kaynağını alabilmektedir. Birey düzeyinde kimlik, bireylerin
temel özelliklerini ortaya koymaktadır ve ben kimim sorusuna bir yanıt ortaya
koymaktadır (Gioia, 1998) ve bir örgüte aidiyet sosyal kimliğin bir başka kaynağı
olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır.
Dutton ve çalışma arkadaşları (1994) örgütsel kimliği bireyin kendisiyle örgüt
arasında kurduğu bilişsel bağ olarak tanımlamaktadırlar. Scott ve Lane (2000)
ise kavramı, bireyin örgütü bir parçası olarak algıladığı psikolojik durum olarak
tanımlamaktadırlar. Örgüt kimliği hem bilişsel düzeyde hem de duygusal düzeyde
örgüt ile özdeşleşme sağlamaktadır (Hatch ve Schultz, 2002). Alberth ve Whetten
(1985) örgütsel kimlik kavramının çok düzeyli olduğunu ortaya koymuşlardır.
Yazarlar, tüm örgütün tek bir paylaşılan kimlik algısına sahip olabilecekleri
(holographic identity) gibi örgüt içerisindeki alt birimlerin kendilerine özgü kimlik
algılarının (ideographic identity) daha baskın olabileceğini ve paylaşılan örgüt
kimliğinden daha belirleyici olabildiğini belirtmişlerdir (Alberth ve Whetten,
1985).
Bir örgüte mensup bireyler o örgütün belirleyici özelliklerine dair farklılaşan
algılara sahip olabilmektedirler. Bu durumda örgüt kimliği, bireylerin üyesi
oldukları örgüte dair farklı algılarının ortaya çıkardığı örgütün genel davranışlarını
tanımlayan bireysel değerlendirmelerin bir bütünü olarak da tanımlanabilmektedir
(Dutton et.al., 1994). Ortaya çıkan bu paylaşılan kimlik algısı, örgüt üyelerinin
üyesi oldukları kuruma hem bilişsel hem de duygusal olarak bağlanmaları
sonucunu doğurmaktadır (Hatch ve Schultz, 2002). Dolayısıyla, güçlü bir örgütsel
kimlik algısına sahip bireyler, örgüt kimliğini destekleyecek şekilde örgüte yönelik
olumlu davranışlar sergilemektedirler (Gioai ve Thomas, 1996). Örneğin, bu
bireyler örgüte daha sadık ve bağlı olmaktadırlar (Dutton et.al., 1994) hatta
örgütsel davranış örüntülerini benimsemekte ve bunlara uyumlu davranışlar
sergilemektedirler (Shamir, 1990). Buradan yola çıkılarak bu çalışma, örgütsel
kimlik algısının örgütsel bağlılık ve örgütsel vatandaşlık kavramlarının ilişkisine
nasıl bir katkısı olduğu belirlenmeye çalışılmaktadır.
2.2. Örgütsel Bağlılık
Ashforth ve Mael (1989) örgütsel kimlik ile örgütsel bağlılık kavramlarının her
ne kadar ilişkili ancak farklı kurgular olsalarda, sık sık karıştırıldığına dikkat
çekmişlerdir. Steers (1977: 46) örgütsel bağlılığı ‘bireyin belirli bir örgüt ile
özdeşleşme düzeyinin göreli gücü veya kendini adaması’ olarak tanımlamıştır
(Mowday et.al., 1979: 226). Ashforth ve Mael (1989) bu iki kurgu arasındaki
net ayrıma örgütsel kimliği örgüte özgü, örgütsel bağlılığı ise bağlı olunan amaç
ve hedefleri paylaşan örgütler arasında transfer edilebilen bir kavram olarak
tanımlayarak açıklık getirmişlerdir. Mowday ve çalışma arkadaşlarının (1979)
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Örgütsel Kimlik Algısı, Örgütsel Bağlılık ve Örgütsel Vatandaşlık Davranışı Arasındaki
İlişkinin Belirlenmesine Yönelik Bir Araştırma
çalışmalarında kullandıkları tanımdan türetilen ve O’Reilly ve Chatman’ın (1986)
çalışmasını takiben Allen ve Meyer (1990) örgütsel bağlılığı oluşturan üç unsuru;
duygusal bağlanma hissini ifade eden duygusal bağlılık (affective commitment),
bireylerin örgütte kalmaya kendilerini sorumluluk hissetmelerini tanımlayan
normatif bağlılık (normative commitment) ve örgütten ayrılmanın doğuracağı
algılanan maliyetleri (zaman, emek, o örgüte özgü geliştirilen beceriler) ifade
eden süreklilik bağlılığı (continuance commitment) olarak tanımlamıştır.
Duygusal bağlılık söz konusu olduğunda bireyler örgütten ayrılmak
istemezler ve eş değer bazen daha iyi teklifler geldiğinde dahi örgütte kalmayı
tercih ederler diğer taraftan normatif bağlılık, normatif baskılardan kaynağını alan
zorunluluk veya mecburiyet duygularına dayanmaktadır (Meyer ve Allen, 1997).
Son olarak süreklilik bağlılığı bireylerin sosyalleşme sürecinde içselleştirdikleri
normların ve değerlerin bireyi grubun bir parçası olarak kalmaya gönüllü ve istekli
olması sonucunu doğurmaktadır (Meyer ve Allen, 1997). Benzer şekilde Mael
ve Ashforth (1992) bireylerin örgütsel kimlik düzeyleri arttıkça örgüt içerisinde
birlikte çalıştıkları bireylerle daha sıcak ve samimi ilişkiler kurduklarını duygusal
bağlılıkların doğduğunu ve bunun sonucu olarak örgütsel bağlılığın bir zorunluluk
olarak ortaya çıktığını ifade etmişlerdir. Bunlara ilave olarak Maignan ve Ferrell
(2001) bireylerin örgütsel kimlik algılarının örgütün olumlu imaja sahip olduğu
durumlarda arttığını ve bunun beraberinde örgüttün bir üyesi olarak kalma isteğini
destekliğini başka bir deyişle örgütsel bağlılığa katkısı olduğunu ifade etmişlerdir.
Literatürde ortaya konulan bu ilişkilerden ve kavramlaştırmalardan yola çıkılarak
aşağıdaki hipotezler test edilmiştir.
H1: Örgüt kimliği algısı ile duygusal ve normatif örgütsel bağlılık düzeyi
arasında pozitif bir ilişki vardır.
2.3.Örgütsel Vatandaşlık
Örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı birçok araştırmacı tarafından ilgi duyulan bir
kavramdır (Organ ve Ryan, 1995; Podsakoff et.al., 2000). Örgütsel vatandaşlık
davranışı; ‘örgüt içerisindeki resmi ödül sistemi ile doğrudan veya dolaylı ilişkisi
olmayan ve örgütün etkili işleyişini destekleyen isteğe bağlı davranışlar’ olarak
tanımlanmaktadır (Organ, 1988: 4). Örgütsel vatandaşlık kavramı 1980’lerde
yapılan çalışmalarla gelişim göstermiştir (Smith et.al., 1983). İçerisinde hem
örnek çalışanın yapması gereken davranışları hem de başkalarına yardım etmeyi
barındırır (Smith et.al., 1983).
Birçok araştırmacı kavramın örgütsel etkililik üzerinde olumlu etkileri olan
birçok farklı kavram ile ilişkisini incelemiştir. Örneğin, örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı
ile iş tatmini ve motivasyon, örgütsel bağlılık, liderlik (Organ ve Lingl, 1995; Organ
ve Moorman, 1993; Penner, Midili, ve Kegelmeyer, 1997; Tang ve Ibrahim, 1998)
ve örgütsel etkililik (Walz ve Niehoff, 1996) gibi çok sayıda örgütsel faktörün
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Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Şirin Atakan-Duman, Ayşın Paşamehmetoğlu, Ahmet Burak Poyraz
ilişkisi literatürde ele alınmıştır. Böylece örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı gösteren
bireylerin iş tatminleri, bağlılıkları ve motivasyonları yüksek olduğundan ayrıca
günlük iş tanımları dışında kalan olumlu davranışlar içerisinde bulunduklarından
örgütün genel etkililik düzeyine de olumlu katkıda bulunmuş olurlar. Bu nedenle,
yöneticiler kimi zaman çalışanlarının performans değerlendirmelerini yaparken ve
atama ve ücretlendirme de örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışından bir değerlendirme
kriteri olarak faydalanmaktadırlar. Basım ve Şeşen (2006) örgütsel vatandaşlık
ve çalışanların bağlılıkları, sadakatleri ve öz verili davranışları arasındaki ilişkiye
değinmişlerdir. Literatürdeki bütün bu değerlendirmeler ve ortaya konan ilişkiler
doğrultusunda bu çalışmada da aşağıdaki hipotezler ile ileri sürülen ilişkiler test
edilmektedir.
H2: Örgüt kimliği algısı ile örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı sergilemek arasında
pozitif bir ilişki vardır.
Görüldüğü gibi literatürde sıkça ele alınan ve çalışılan bir kavram olmasına
karşın genellikle örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışının olumlu örgütsel çıktılar ile
ilişkisi ya da iş tatmini veya motivasyon gibi olumlu bireysel davranışlar ile ilişkisi
incelenmiştir. Ancak bu kavramın örgütsel kimlik algısı ile olan ilişkisine değinen
çalışmalar oldukça sınırlıdır (örneğin, Van Dick et.al., 2008; Akatay, 2008; Polat
ve Meydan, 2011; Çetinkaya ve Çimenci, 2014). Akatay (2008) örgütsel kimlik ve
örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı arasındaki ilişkiyi ele aldığı çalışmasında, örgütsel
kimlik algısının örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı üzerinde pozitif yönde bir etkisi
olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Çetinkaya ve Çimenci (2014) örgütsel kimlik algısının
örgütsel adalet algısı ve örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı arasında tam aracılık
rolüne (mediating role) sahip olduğunu başka bir deyişle, çalışanların örgütte
adaletli davranıldığına ilişkin algıları onların örgüt ile özdeşlemelerine ve örgütsel
vatandaşlık davranışları sergilemelerine yol açtığını ortaya koymuşlardır. Benzer
şekilde Polat ve Meydan (2011) örgüt kültürü ile örgütsel bağlılık arasındaki
ilişkiye örgütsel özdeşleşmenin (organizational identification) aracılık etkisinin
olduğunu ortaya koymuşlardır. Literatürde ortaya konulan bu çalışmalardan yola
çıkılarak bu çalışmada aşağıda verilmiş olan hipotezler de test edilecektir.
H3 Duygusal ve normatif örgütsel bağlılık ile örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı
sergilemek arasında pozitif bir ilişki vardır.
Görüldüğü gibi literatürde yapılan çalışmalar, bu çalışmada ele alınan
kavramlar olan örgütsel kimlik, örgütsel bağlılık ve örgütsel vatandaşlık
kavramlarının birbirleri ile ikili ilişkilerini ortaya koymaktadır ancak bu çalışmada
bu kavramlara ilişkin ilişkiler tek bir modelde ele alınmaktadır böylece literatürde
daha önce ele alınmamış kapsamlı bir model ile bu kavramların ilişkileri ortaya
konulmaktadır.
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Örgütsel Kimlik Algısı, Örgütsel Bağlılık ve Örgütsel Vatandaşlık Davranışı Arasındaki
İlişkinin Belirlenmesine Yönelik Bir Araştırma
3. Çalışmanın Yöntemi
Liselerin mezunları kadar çalışanları içinde güçlü birer örgütsel kimlik
oluşturabileceği ön kabulüyle, çalışma verileri Ankara’da yer alan 23 lisenin
öğretmenlerinden, idari personelinden ve destek personelinden (Psikolojik
Danışmanlık ve Rehberlik personeli gibi) yer alan bireylerden toplanmıştır.
Örneklem, 952 kişiden oluşmaktadır. Örneklemin %57.8’i kadın, %42.2’si
erkektir. 952 kişinin; %78.9’u öğretmen, %12.9’u idari personel ve %6.7’si destek
personelidir. %16.3’ü 30 yaşının altında, %33.1’ı 31-40 yaş aralığında, %30.1’i 4150 yaş aralığında, %16.5’i ise 51 yaşının üzerindedir.
Katılımcıların örgütsel kimlik algıları toplam 15 ifadeden oluşan Stoner,
Perrewe ve Hofacker (2011) tarafından geliştirilen Çok Boyutlu Kimlik Ölçeği
(Multi-Dimensional Identification Scale) ile ölçülmüştür. Faktör analizi sonuçları
ile .40 altında olan 4, 7, 13, 14 ve 15. sorular ölçekten çıkarılmış ve ölçek 10
soruya indirgenmiştir. Örgütsel kimlik ölçeğinin Cronbach’s alfa değeri .86’dır.
Örgütsel bağlılık düzeyleri ise, Meyer ve Allen (1997) tarafından geliştiren 23
ifadeden oluşan Örgütsel Bağlılık Ölçeği (Organizational Commitment Scale) ile
ölçülmüştür. 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 18 ve 19. sorular ölçekten çıkarılmış ve ölçek
14 soruya indirgenmiştir. Faktör analizi sonuçlarına göre Örgütsel bağlılık
ölçeğinin Cronbach’s alfa değeri .92’dir. Son olarak, örgütsel vatandaşlık düzeyi
24 ifadeden oluşan Hoffman ve çalışma arkadaşları (2007) tarafından geliştirilen
Örgütsel Vatandaşlık Davranışı Ölçeği (Organizational Citizenship Behavior Scale)
ile ölçülmüştür. Faktör analizi sonuçlarına göre 2, 4, 16 ve 19. sorular çıkarılmış
ve ölçek 20 soruya indirgenmiştir. Örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı ölçeğinin
Cronbach’s alfa değeri .90’dır. Araştırma kavramlarını ölçmeye yönelik ölçeklerin
ve demografik bilgilerin sorulduğu ek soruların birleşiminden oluşan anket
formu katılımcılara çalışma araştırmacıları tarafından dağıtılmış ve yine çalışma
araştırmacıları tarafından toplanarak veri girişi yapılmıştır.
Tüm faktör yüklemeleri istatistiksel olarak geçerli olup, tüm yüklemeler
.40’ın üzerindedir, bu sonuçlar bütünleyici geçerliliğin (convergent validity) bir
göstergesidir (Hair et.al., 2010). İkinci olarak, Lisrel’de yapılan doğrulayıcı faktör
analizi ile AVE değerlerine bakılmıştır. AVE değeri herhangi iki değişken için,
korelasyon tahmin karesi ile karşılaştırılmıştır (Hair et al., 2010). Her değişken
için AVE değeri korelasyon tahmin karesinden büyüktür, bu durumda ölçeklerin
geçerliliği kanıtlanmaktadır. Faktör değerleri, geçerlilik analizive korelasyon
analizi yapıldıktan sonra çalışmanın modeli ve hipotezlerini test edebilmek için
LISREL izlek analizi (path analysis) uygulanmıştır.
81
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Şirin Atakan-Duman, Ayşın Paşamehmetoğlu, Ahmet Burak Poyraz
Örgütsel Kimlik Algısı H
1 Duygusal ve Normatif Örgütsel Bağlılık Şekil 1. Çalışmanın Modeli
H3 Örgütsel Vatandaşlık Davranışı H2 4. Çalışma Bulguları
Çalışmada örgütsel kimlik algısı, örgütsel bağlılık ve örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı
değişkenleri arasında ki ilişkiyi görebilmek için korelasyon analizi yapılmıştır.
Çalışma değişkenlerine ilişkin korelasyon tablosu Tablo 1’de sunulmaktadır.
Tablo 1. Çalışma Değişkenlerine İlişkin Korelasyon Tablosu
Kendall’s tau_b
Örgütsel
Kimlik
Örgütsel
Bağlılık
Örgütsel
Vatandaşlık
Örgütsel Kimlik
Correlation Coefficient
1
.465(**)
.337(**)
Örgütsel Bağlılık
Correlation Coefficient
.465(**)
1
.295(**)
Örgütsel Vatandaşlık
Correlation Coefficient
.337(**)
.295(**)
1
952
952
952
N
** p < 0.01 (çift yönlü test)
* p < 0.05 (çift yönlü test)
Korelasyon analizi sonuçlarına göre; ‘örgütsel kimliğin’, ‘örgütsel bağlılık’ ile
pozitif yönde ilişkisi olduğu görülmektedir (r=.465, p<.01). Ayrıca, ‘örgütsel kimlik’
ile ‘örgütsel vatandaşlık’ arasında pozitif yönde ilişki bulunmaktadır (r=.337,
p<.01). Son olarak, ‘örgütsel bağlılığın’, ‘örgütsel vatandaşlık’ ile pozitif yönde
ilişkisi olduğu görülmektedir (r=.295, p<.01). Çalışmada, LISREL 8.51 (Jöreskog ve
Sörbom, 1993) programı kullanılarak ‘izlek analizi’ uygulanmıştır.
82
Örgütsel Kimlik Algısı, Örgütsel Bağlılık ve Örgütsel Vatandaşlık Davranışı Arasındaki
İlişkinin Belirlenmesine Yönelik Bir Araştırma
Şekil 2. İzlek Analizi Sonuçları
İzlek analizi sonucunda modelin istatistiksel olarak mükemmel olduğu
görülmektedir. Modele ilişkin elde edilen değerler Tablo 2’de sunulmaktadır.
Tablo 2. Çalışma modeline ilişkin elde edilen sonuçlar
X2
df
X2 /df
CFI
GFI
AGFI
NFI
RMSEA
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0,00
Araştırmanın sonuçlarına bakıldığında, X2/df (ki kare/serbestlik derecesi)
değerinin (0), istenilen istatistiksel aralıktan (1/3 – 1/5 arası) düşük olduğu
görülmektedir. Bu değerin modelin uyum değerini gösterdiği göz önüne alınırsa,
çalışmanın modelinin çok iyi uyum gösterdiği anlaşılmaktadır. Modelin uyum
değerini ölçen diğer bir değişken olan karşılaştırmalı uyum indeksi (CFI) değerine
bakıldığında; araştırmanın sonucunda elde edilen CFI değerinin 1 olduğu
görülmektedir. Karşılaştırmalı uyum indeksinin (CFI) 0.90 ve üzeri için modelin
iyi uyum verdiği göz önüne alınırsa, çalışmanın modelinin çok iyi uyum verdiği
daha açık olarak görülmektedir. Normlaştırılmış uyum indeksi olan (NFI)’nın 1
olması istatistiksel olarak beklenen değerin elde edildiğini göstermektedir. 0.90
ve üzeri değerlerin iyi bir uyum olarak kabul edildiği iyilik uyum indeksi (GFI),
çalışma sonucunda 1 elde edilmiştir buna göre iyi uyum göstermektedir. AGFI
ise örneklem genişliği dikkate alınarak düzeltilmiş olan bir GFI değeridir ve 0.90
üzeri değerleri iyi uyum göstermektedir. Araştırmada elde edilen, ayarlanmış
iyilik uyum indeksi AGFI (1) değerine bakıldığında, iyi uyum değerini sağladığı
görülmektedir. Son olarak, verilerin geçerliliği için bakılan diğer bir değer
(RMSEA), Yaklaşık Hataların Ortalama Karekökü’dür. Eğer değer, 0.08 ve altında
ise, model karmaşıklığı dikkate alınarak kabul edilir. Analiz sonuçlarında, RMSEA
değerinin 0.00 olduğu görülmektedir. Buna göre, genel olarak analiz sonuçlarına
bakıldığında tüm değerler modelin çok iyi uyum verdiği göstermektedir.
İzlek analizinin sonuçlarına göre H1, H2, H3 hipotezleri doğrulanmıştır
(Şekil 1). Dolayısı ile araştırmanın sonucundan, örgüt kimliği algısı ile duygusal
ve normatif örgütsel bağlılık düzeyi arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğu ortaya
çıkmaktadır. Diğer sonuca göre, örgüt kimliği algısı ile örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı
83
Volume:2 Number:4
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Şirin Atakan-Duman, Ayşın Paşamehmetoğlu, Ahmet Burak Poyraz
sergilemek arasında pozitif bir ilişki vardır. Son olarak araştırmada, duygusal ve
normatif örgütsel bağlılık ile örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı sergilemek arasında
pozitif bir ilişki olduğu sonucu çıkmıştır.
5. Tartışma ve Sonuç
Çalışma sonuçları test edilen hipotezlerin hepsinin desteklendiğini ortaya
koymaktadır. Buradan yola çıkılarak, örgütsel kimliğin güçlenmesi sonucunda
örgütsel bağlılığın da güçleneceği ve güçlü örgütsel kimlik algısına sahip
çalışanların örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışlarını daha fazla sergileyeceklerini
söylemek mümkündür. Benzer şekilde örgütsel bağlılık düzeyi yüksek çalışanların
örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışlarını görece daha fazla sergileyecekleri sonucuna
varmak mümkündür.
Literatürde örgütsel bağlılık ve örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı arasındaki
ilişkiyi ele alan çalışmalara rastlamak mümkündür. Ancak bu iki kavramın örgütsel
kimlik algısı ile ilişkisini ele alan çalışmalar literatürde oldukça zayıf kalmaktadır.
Bu çalışmada bu üç kavram arasındaki ilişki bütünleşik bir modelde ele alınmış
ve böylece lise öğretmenlerinin örgütsel kimlik algılarının yüksel olduğu hallerde
kurumlarına bağlılıklarının arttığı ve daha fazla örgütsel vatandaşlık davranışı
sergiledikleri anlaşılmıştır.
Örgütsel kimlik algısı ile örgütsel bağlılık ve vatandaşlık davranışlarının
pozitif bir ilişkisinin olması bir kaç açıdan önemli bir bulgudur. Örgütsel bağlılık
davranışının bireyinkiyle uyumlu amaç ve hedeflere sahip örgütler arasında
transfer edilebildiği bilinmektedir (Ashforth ve Mael, 1989). Öte taraftan örgütsel
kimlik algısı o kuruma özgüdür ve transfer edilememektedir. Dolayısıyla örgütsel
kimlik algısı güçlü olan bireyler kurumlarına örgütsel bağlılıktan daha güçlü bir
aidiyet geliştirmektedirler. Böylece örgütsel bağlılık ve vatandaşlık davranışı, güçlü
bir örgütsel kimlik algısının doğal bir sonucu olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Öyle ise,
uygulamada örgütler örgütsel kimlik algısını güçlendirmeye yönelik çalışmalara
ağırlık vermelidirler böylece çok önemli örgütsel çıktılar olan örgütsel bağlılık ve
vatandaşlık davranışı sergileyen çalışanlar elde etmek ve mümkün olacaktır.
İleri araştırmalarda, örgüt kimliği algısını güçlendirmeye yönelik çalışmaların
neler olabileceği ve bunların işten ayrılma isteği, iş tatmini, motivasyon gibi farklı
örgütsel çıktılar üzerindeki etki düzeylerinin ne olduğunun ele alınabileceği daha
kapsamlı modeller ele alınabilir. Ayrıca, bu ilişkilerin farklı meslek grupları için de
benzer şekilde ortaya çıkıp çıkmadığı incelenebilir. Böylece örgüt kimliği algısının
daha güçlü ortaya çıktığı meslek gruplarının neler olduğunu ortaya koymak da
mümkün olabilecektir.
84
Örgütsel Kimlik Algısı, Örgütsel Bağlılık ve Örgütsel Vatandaşlık Davranışı Arasındaki
İlişkinin Belirlenmesine Yönelik Bir Araştırma
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Ek 1. Faktör Analizi Sonuçları
İfadeler
88
Örgüt Kimliği (OK)
OB1
,450
OB4
,516
OB6
,433
OB9
,544
OB10
,494
OB13
,438
OB14
,543
OB15
,578
OB16
,665
OB17
,539
OB20
,493
OB21
,524
OB22
,479
OB23
,536
Örgütsel Bağlılık (OB)
OB1
,450
OB4
,516
OB6
,433
OB9
,544
OB10
,494
OB13
,438
OB14
,543
OB15
,578
OB16
,665
OB17
,539
OB20
,493
OB21
,524
OB22
,479
OB23
,536
Örgütsel Vatandaşlık Davranışı
(OV)
OV1
,561
OV3
,435
OV5
,535
OV6
,642
OV7
,548
OV8
,633
OV9
,564
OV10
,767
Örgütsel Kimlik Algısı, Örgütsel Bağlılık ve Örgütsel Vatandaşlık Davranışı Arasındaki
İlişkinin Belirlenmesine Yönelik Bir Araştırma
OV11
,621
OV12
,732
OV13
,650
OV14
,677
OV15
,590
OV17
,516
OV18
,511
OV20
,572
OV21
,507
OV22
,663
OV23
,692
OV24
,565
89
Vol:2, No:4, 91-105, December, 2013
The Relational Analysis and Effect Of Risk Management
Techniques On Project Outcomes In Development Sector: A
Case Of NGOs & INGOs In Pakistan
Atif Habib*
Sobia Rashid**
Abstract
Risks have many dimensions and as a consequence it must be unbundled for
better understanding of bases, effects, and drivers. Effective management of risk
is becoming a serious problem because of the increasing size of organizations
which is making it more complex. In order to mingle with risk it is pertinent for
organizations to make a strategy to identify major risks, assess and handle these
on a regular basis all over the organization. This study will analyze the relationship
between risk management techniques and project outcomes in non-profit
organization of Pakistan, which are mostly based on project based. Extensive
literature is available showing relationship between risk management and its
implications on project. Although many NGOs & INGOs focus on the risks related
to the project but do not consider it as an integral part as a project management
tool. On the basis of theoretical background, a framework is proposed to study
the relationship between risk management techniques and project outcomes in
non-profit organizations of Pakistan. A structured questionnaire has been used
to collect data from employees working in different NGOs & INGOs of Pakistan
using random sampling technique. Simple linear regression and correlations
analysis has been done in order to see the relationship between the variables and
for the strength of their relationship correlation coefficient has been calculated
using SPSS showing that among four techniques, that are Shape and Mitigate,
Shift and Allocate, Influence and Transfer and Diversify through portfolios, the
most significant technique is ITT, then comes the SMT, then DPT and finally the
SAT. Moreover all the techniques are positively related to the project outcomes
except DPT. This study glimpsed light on different factors affecting the project
outcomes and its relationship with the risk management strategies.
Key Words: Risk, Risk Management, Risk Management Techniques SMT,ITT ,DPT,
SAT, NGOs, INGOs and Project Outcomes.
*
MS Scholar Department of Management Sciences, SZABIST, Islamabad
PhD Scholar Faculty of Administrative Sciences Air University, Islamabad Pakistan
**
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Atif Habib, Sobia Rashid
Introduction
Risk in a project is an indefinite event or situation that, if it happens, has an
adverse impact on project goals. In Projects risk have dual impact on the project‘s
goals, that is negative as well as positive (PMBOK, 2000).In today’s sophisticated
world due to a paradigm shift, multinational organizations are approaching
to have diverse teams to cope up with the diverse culture and competitive
working environment. Different programs are designed for achieving the specific
objectives. Within the programs the projects exist and these Projects have to
face risks either internal or external. Risks related to financial matters, personal
interest, design issues, operational strategies and construction plans can be
termed as internal risks and those related to social, environmental, public, legal
and political are termed as external risks.
The word Risicare meaning to dare is the foundation of risk. Impudently to
act and tackle risks boldly is integral to the project environment of NGOs & INGOs.
Without acknowledging risks at hand there is no origination, improvement or
social change. The nature of tasks of NGOs & INGOs is to challenge relentlessly
to make decisions and perform to accomplish positive outcomes. In the
organizations, especially those organizations that are engaged in different
projects, they are exposed to risks as risks are inevitable and cannot be ignored.
Due to this nature of risk, different techniques have been proposed to quantify
and manage it. There is uncertainty in results associated with what will happen
in the future, and therefore anticipation or prediction is hard. So the need is to
emphasis on the likelihood of risks and the way risks will affect the projects in the
shape of project outcomes. There is likewise imperative and multifaceted aspect
to risk. Organizations are all distinctive. Thus, risk is entrenched in particular
historical perspectives—from the governmental and spiritual to the monetary
and ecological—that contour people’s opinions of the results and the likelihood
of an uncertain event (Ahn & Skudlark, 2002).
According to (Charoenngam & Yeh, 1999). risks are to be managed as the
outcomes of risks are negative as they affect the quality, time and cost of project.
So, it is necessary to handle and manage risk efficiently and effectively and
considered risk management as an assimilated function of project management.
Keeping in view the similar nature and dynamics, the Non-Governmental
Organizations/bodies tend to follow the similar pattern of achieving their
objectives in terms of service delivery and charter. The field of project
management has been recognized as a milestone by the organizations to save
them from failures and to lead them towards success. The NGOs/INGOs use the
similar mechanism of project management to deal with risks. Under the nine
knowledge areas of project management, Risk Management takes place of a
beacon light in saving from project failures and making the project successful by
achieving the objectives.
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Due to the nature of NGOs & INGOs, it is different from industries i.e., IT
Industry, construction Industry, pharmaceutical Industry etc. Interestingly the
NGOs/INGOs are involved in development sector that may include construction
of schools, setup of Bio Gas Plants for fuel and energy, development of software
for the emergency and relief services. Because of the similar nature of projects
that are co-existing in both sectors i.e., NGOs & INGOs and Industries, the risk
management techniques/strategies can be applied.
In project management it is very important to distinguish between constraints
and risks. It has been discussed in Project Management Body of Knowledge with
the name of triple constraints, in the figure given below, where the three sides of
the triangle represent time, cost and scope, keeping the quality as a core of the
triangle.
Figure 1.1 Triple Constraints in Project Mangement
(PMBOK, 2008).
2. Literature Review
There is an extensive support of literature that shows that risk management
plays a vital role in the accomplishment of projects in terms of outcomes. Lot of
work has been done on proposing risk management techniques in engineering
projects, financial sector, construction industry, oil and gas industry and in public
sectors. But very few literatures are available on development sector in this
regards. In this regard, the base of this study is on the work done by (Grau, 2004;
Sharp and Brock, 2011). There is a lot of contribution of researchers in the field
of risk management and the work of (Roger and Donald, 2001; Chapman, 1998;
PMI, 2000) has been incorporated in this study. Moreover the literature supports
the different industries but the linkage is developed with this study by explaining
the similarities that co-exist between industries and NGOs & INGOs.
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2.1 Risk
Risk assessment is a fundamental constituent within the project procedures
and management practices. It should deliver an arduous, independent and
logical assessment of credible risks confined in a project. As a usual part of the
projects (Boothroyd & Emmett, 1996). Risk and ambiguity persists, regardless
of market sector, monetary scope or whereabouts and common risks for all the
NGOs & INGOs are programmatic and performance risks, financial & fiduciary
risks, deliverables and quality risks and governance, oversight and management
risks. Accordingly the assessment of risk overwhelms a basic component within
the program and management practices of any plan and should encompass an
arduous, independent and critical assessment of all prospective sources and
arrangements of risks contained by the project. By analyzing projects on the
bases of risk and thoroughly evaluating them, it is probable that more proficient
project assessments can be made (Kendrick, 2003).
Risk can be measured as the likelihood of a projection variable such as
restoration cost or rental price being diverse others. The acknowledgment or
identification of bases of risk allows progressive management to retain either by
avoiding or by moderating the effect. Risk can be well-defined as an artifact of the
probability of the happening of an incident and the fiscal influence of the event.
Risk is the likelihood that procedures, their consequential impacts and vigorous
interactions might produce differently than expected. Although risk is frequently
observed as something that can be defined in statistical expressions, improbability
applies to conditions in which prospective outcomes and contributory forces
are not completely understood: and both are stated as risks. Risks have many
dimensions and therefore need a clear consideration of bases, effects, and
drivers. However, since their effects depend on the way they associate and act
together, reductionism must be evaded (Kerski, 2005).
2.2 Risk Management and Process
Risk management includes evaluating the risk (similar risks for all NGOs & INGOs)
causes and devising strategies and techniques to moderate programmatic and
performance risks, financial & fiduciary risks, deliverables and quality risks and
governance, oversight and management risks to an adequate level. Measurement
of risk elements plays an imperative role in the valuation of risk. It is the procedure
of evaluating risk and then manipulating approaches and procedures to alleviate
the identified risk elements. Many aspects have generated an awareness
of possibilities and its effect on organizations including prompt technology
developments, the comprehensive budget, and the fluctuating role of commerce
and industrial processes. Management of risk includes forming the project’s
objective tasks contrary to variables such as internal as well as external factors
of project. Risk management is one of the nine functions of project management
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The Relational Analysis and Effect Of Risk Management Techniques On Project Outcomes
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followed by time, cost, human resource, integration, communication,
procurement and quality (Project Management Body of Knowledge, 2000). The
traditional assessment about functions of project management consider all nine
functions as a basis of planning and should be the focal point in each stage of the
project (Jaafari, 1999).
Likelihood Rating
L ikelihood R ating
Sever ityRating
R ating
Severity
Figure 2.1 Risk Severity Matrix
(LFA Global Fund,2010)
2.3 Risk Management Techniques
Different techniques have been proposed to cultivate solutions in order to
manage risk. In this regard two main risk management techniques are developing
in risk management namely quantitative and qualitative methodologies.
Quantitative methods entail a logical agenda or model that can compute the
probability of the risk. The key benefits of enumerating the risks are providing a
suitable indulgent of failure, costs and procedures, which are hard to explicate by
a qualitative method. Furthermore, it is easy to know the whole process, grasp
the applicable decision, and allot resources grounded on quantitative statistics
rather than qualitative estimations. Several approaches like decision support
techniques, managerial techniques, qualitative and quantitative techniques,
simple adjustment techniques and probabilistic techniques have been established
in risk management, although they have been restricted by some factors (Ward
and Chapman, 2003).
Qualitative methodologies require skillful opinions or an experienced
person’s opinions. A professional is the one who has broad acquaintance about
the relevant project or has past practical experience on same sort of projects. The
main shortcomings of using qualitative methodologies are the extent of prejudice
during the project, difference in human conclusions, and absence of standardized
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Atif Habib, Sobia Rashid
method. There have been various methodologies proposed by (Chapman, 2003).
Like nominal group and Delphi techniques to curtail the biasing, which subsists,
but the extent of subjectivity cannot be addressed and reduce through these
approaches.
Several past researchers have studied the technique of risk management in
large and intricate systems or handling projects by stages, junctures, and classes,
which are worn-out in many ways. Certain projects are connected to the activities
or responsibilities they execute, and some are associated to the outcomes. The
analysis of a specific system can be determined by numerous factors for instance
the size, intricacy and modifications distressing the system. In the past, numerous
techniques have been suggested for the management of project risk. (Miller
& Lessard, 2001). Devised an approach that outlines the various constituents
of risks, frameworks and approaches for managing risks and advise a dynamic
model for handling and determining the risks in large projects. They divided
risks into groups such as market oriented, completion, and organizational. After
the classification of risk, they proposed four key techniques for managing risk:
diversify through portfolios, shift & allocate, shape & mitigate and influence
& transform institutions. Moreover, after outlining risk management in many
large projects, they documented six prime layers of mechanisms employed by
management to mingle with the risks: evaluate/comprehend, transmit/evade,
differentiate/puddle, generate alternatives/flexibility, alter risk, and cuddle risks
(Miller and Lessard, 2001)
Figure 2.2 Framework of Risk Management Techniques
(Sponsors, 2001).
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The Relational Analysis and Effect Of Risk Management Techniques On Project Outcomes
In Development Sector: A Case Of NGOs & INGOs In Pakistan
Above Figure illustrates risk management techniques in two axes: the degree to
which risks are governable and the extent to which risks are particular to a project
or analytically influence large amounts of performers. In case of controllable
risks (Y-Axis) the concept is to handle them by using the traditional approaches
of risk management as they are controllable and definite. On the other hand
when compared with those risks which are uncontrollable and specific then it
is mandatory to shift or share them using agreements or commercial markets
is the suitable solution. In some cases when the risks are not defined properly
and are controlled by pretentious parties, administrations, or supervisors the
best way are transmuting them through power in order to increase control. The
situation when nature of risks is comprehensive, logical and can be controlled
then it is better to diversify coverage through portfolios. Outstanding, systematic,
and overwhelming risks have to be incorporated by supporters (Miller & Lessard,
2001).
2.4 Project Outcomes
Project outcomes can be defined as a shared vision as it addresses the components
of clarity means the goals are defined in simple and related terms, strengthened
by activities, continuity refers to the broad course remains the same in spite of
workforces or other modifications and consistency means all employees share
and understand the vision of project (Bartlett and Ghoshal, 1990). There is an
improved idea and prospect that interested party satisfaction can be attained
only if the vision is clearly and successfully transferred and implicit by the team
members of project. For instance a contemporary project management research
case study by Canadian IT claimed that if vision of project is shared among all then
it will contribute to achieve and deliver the projects intended goals effectively
regardless of poor practices of project management (Christensen and Walker,
2004)
Project outcomes can be categorized as intangible and tangible. Intangible
outcomes can be explained as competent and trained workforce who can work
efficiently. Tangible outcomes are referred to physical things for instance roads,
buildings, land and etc. (PMI, 2000).
In accordance with the explanation provided by PMBOK it is clear those
outcomes can be intangible or tangible as compared to objectives which
are just quantifiable and the outcomes which are only tangible. On the other
hand, the practicalities of project outcomes are not explained in PMBOK. In
literature of quality management the project outcomes are explained in terms
of tangible and intangible. According to that literature the intangible outcomes
for instance performance, satisfaction are those which can be measured through
operationalization by setting a specific scale ranging from high degree to low
degree. On the other hand tangible outcomes are those which can be quantify
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Volume:2 Number:4
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Atif Habib, Sobia Rashid
and even operationalized, monitored and controlled. In this paper intangible
outcomes are operationalized through a scale refers to degree of success or
failure. Usually, intangibles comprises of skills, satisfaction, performance, culture,
leadership, processes, trust, values, relationships, competencies and knowledge.
In past the research done on the project outcomes revealed that Intangible
project outcomes are essential tool of competitive advantages and it is necessary
to acknowledge, measure and control them with a view to have an efficient
management. In terms of relationship and association between intangible
investments and earnings it has observed that they have consistent association
and value creation potential in businesses of corporations (Garcia Ayuso ,2003).
3. Theoretical Framework
Risk Management Techniques
Project Outcomes
Shape & Mitigate
Shift & Allocate
Project Outcomes
Influence &Transfer institutes
Diversify through Portfolios
Hypothesis of the Study
H1 There is relationship between shapes & mitigate risk management technique
and project outcomes
H2 There is a relationship between shift & allocate risk management technique
and project outcomes
H3 There is a relationship between Influence &Transfer institutes risk management
techniques and project outcomes
H4 There is relationship between Diversify through Portfolio risk management
techniques and project outcomes.
4. Methodology
4.1. Type of Investigation
The basic purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between risk
management techniques and project outcomes in NGOS and INGOs working
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The Relational Analysis and Effect Of Risk Management Techniques On Project Outcomes
In Development Sector: A Case Of NGOs & INGOs In Pakistan
in Pakistan, which are mostly based on project based. Extensive literature is
available showing relationship between risk management and its implications on
project. Although many NGOs & INGOs focus on the risks related to the project
but do not consider it as an integral part as a project management tool.
4.2. Study Setting
The study will be conducted in the developmental sector that is Non-Government
Organizations (NGO) and International Non-Government Organizations. It is cross
sectional as it will be conducted in single frame of time, data can be collected at
one time because of grant constraints by distributing closed ended questioners
among the high officials working in six NGOs and INGOs working in different
provinces of Pakistan on different projects.
4.3. Unit of Analysis
The basic purpose of the study is to check the relationship between risk
management techniques and project outcomes in NGOS and INGOs working in
Pakistan. Therefore the unit of analysis in this study is employees particularly the
monitoring and evaluation officers, program mangers or coordinators, finance
officials from different departments of NGOS and INGOs working in big cities of
Pakistan.
4.4. Population & Sample size
As development sector is emerging in Pakistan so the population for this study
is the development sector working on the different developmental projects.
The sample size is approximately 150 as the questionnaire has been shared with
the officials in six different NGOs and INGOs working in different provinces of
Pakistan.
4.5. Sampling Technique
A non-probability convenience sampling technique has been adopted to draw the
samples from the part of the population as it is cross sectional study due to time
constraint this method has used.
4.6. Instrument & Data Collection Procedure
Data has been collected using questionnaire. Questionnaires were distributed and
have been mailed to different departments of three local NGOs & three INGOs
working in Pakistan. Scale used for data collection has been in the following order;
Risk Management Techniques will be measured by 14 statements proposed by
Rao Tummala (1997). In the questionnaire, techniques denoted to the following
items: 1, 2, 3 and 4 for shape & mitigate ; items 5, 6, 7 and 8 for shift & allocate ;
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Atif Habib, Sobia Rashid
items 9, 10 and 11 for influence & transfer and items 12, 13 and 14 for diversify
through portfolios. The project outcomes will be measured by seven statements,
these items were designed by Kadoda (2001).
5. Results
5.1 Demographics
The demographics for the study consisting of gender, work experience, relative
department and organization as under.
Demographics
Frequency
Percent
Gender
Male
76
Female
24
79%
24% Organization
Mercy Corps
18
17.3%
Oxfam
18
17.3%
Action Aid
Nai Zindagi
19
18.3%
15
14.4%
Nishan
14
13.5%
PIEDAR
16
15.4%
Departments
M&E
60
60%
Finance
40
40%
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The Relational Analysis and Effect Of Risk Management Techniques On Project Outcomes
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Correlation Matrix
SMT
SAT
ITT
DTP
SMT
1
PO
SAT
.519**
1
.000
100
100
ITT
.284**
.341**
1
.000
.000
100100100
DTP
.093
.000.000.000
100100100100
PO
.336**
.000.000.000.000
100100100100
.284**
.368**
.073
.837**
1
.153
1
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
* Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).
Above Table presents inter-correlations of the products of independent
variable risk management techniques and dependent variable project outcomes
used in the model. Results confirm that the independent variable, correlate
with the dependent variables in the positive direction. The correlations were
significant for three techniques except one that is DPT at p < 0.01.
5.2 Correlation Matrix
The strength of variables has been tested through correlation as tabulated below.
5.3 Regression Analysis
Simple Linear Regression
The simple regression has been used to check the relationship between the
variables and tabulated below.
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Simple Regression
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
Model
SMT
SAT
ITT
DPT
.140
.036
1.821
.136
.114
.116
.135
Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
0.085
0.023
0.798
0.078
t
1.226
.311
13.513
1.341
Sig.
.000
.000
.000
.183
.101
a. Dependent Variable: Project Outcomes
Model Summary
Model
1
R
.847
R Square
.717
Adjusted R
Square
.705
Std. Error of the
Estimate
1.93604
Applying these coefficient values, our regression equation would become as follows:
PO = 3.558 + .140*SMT+ .036*SAT + 1.821*ITT+. 136*DPT
In model-I the regression analysis used to find the impact of risk management
techniques on project outcomes. In above table the u n -standardized coefficient
of regression for shape & mitigate (.140) shows project outcomes increases
by o n l y 14 points by every unit increase in shape & mitigate techniques
and the p-value is .000 showing shape & mitigate techniques are significantly
related to project outcomes. The u n -standardized coefficient of regression
for shape & allocate (.036) shows project outcomes increases by 3.6 points
by every unit increase in shape & allocate techniques and the p-value is
.000 showing shape & mitigate techniques are significantly related to project
outcomes. The u n -standardized coefficient of regression for influence &
transfer (1.821) shows project outcomes increases by 182 points by every
unit increase in influence & transfer techniques and the p-value is .000 showing
influence & transfer techniques are significantly related to project outcomes.
The u n -standardized coefficient of regression for diversify through
portfolios (.136) shows project outcomes increases by 13 points by every
unit increase in diversify through portfolios techniques and the p-value is .183
showing diversify through portfolios techniques are not significantly related to
project outcomes. Coefficient of determination (R-square=0.717) shows that
71.0% variation is explained by the variable. The F-value shows that model is
significant (p<0.0
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The Relational Analysis and Effect Of Risk Management Techniques On Project Outcomes
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6. Conclusion
This research has been conducted with an aim to find out the relationship and
impact of risk management techniques on project outcomes in development
sector of Pakistan. The main purpose has been to find out the relationship between
these variables in Pakistani culture and to provide true and actual facts to the
management of the NGOs and INGOs in the development sector of Pakistan. An
adapted model has been used and all the variables have been supported through
the latest literature. Reliability Analysis of this research have made it clear that
the variables used are reliable and valid and the cronbach alpha values are as per
the acceptable range all around the world i.e. 0.7 or above.
The results of this study shows that among the four techniques, that are
Shape and Mitigate, Shift and Allocate, Influence and Transfer and Diversify
through portfolios, the most significant technique is ITT, then comes the SMT,
then DPT and finally the SAT. Moreover all the techniques are positively related
to the project outcomes excewpt DPT. It is positively related but is not significant
showing the P-Value of 0.183. In accordance to the results when risks are
controllable Shape and Mitigate strategy should be used. Whereas, when risks
are out of control but specific, Shift and Allocate should be used. When risks are
under control but poorly defined, Influence and Transfer should be used. When
risks are systematic as well as broad and controllable, Diversify through portfolio
should be used.
Frequency distribution has been checked through overall frequency analysis
on the basis of demographic i.e. gender, age, qualification, work experience,
department and organization for which the respondents are working for. It also
elaborated the data clearly as how the respondents filled the questionnaires.
The relationship of variables has been both significant and non-significant in
this study. Previous studies done on risk management techniques are case based
and lot of literary material has been explained by researchers in miscellaneous
industries which are quantitatively analyzed in this study. Even though the
previous literature focused on real options that are valuing the risks involved. This
study focuses on the managerial techniques of risk management of identifying,
shaping, and understanding these options. As Value can be added and enhanced
by crafting options for progressive choices and practicing these options in a
sensible way. Accordingly, it is essential to seek projects which payoffs under
certain formal and technical conditions and project officials can manage risks by
using appropriate management techniques in accordance to the extent of risk
impact and its nature (Roger and Lessard, 2001).
6.1 Limitations and Future Recommendations
It is worthy for any research study to talk about it strong points and weak pointes.
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Atif Habib, Sobia Rashid
This study has been conducted in a limited time frame. This study could have
been made longitudinal if it is conducted for longer span of time, which can result
into more detail and come up with hidden truths from the project environment.
Another limitation is that risks regardless of its type have been analyzed in this
study, it is recommended for future researchers to examine risk types with these
variables. The Population for this study has been taken as NGOs and INGOs in
capital of Pakistan but it is recommended for future researchers to carry out the
research by targeting the other sector that is construction, engineering, transport
and health as well, so that these sectors can also be addressed in Pakistani
environment.
The strength of this study is that in Pakistan it has been conducted for the
first time. Moreover this research is the first in its kind to be quantitative as
previous studies are literature based and mostly are case studies and articles,
giving an over view of risk management techniques, rather than the practical and
quantitative analysis. The findings are based on true response of the respondents.
Furthermore this study has tested the theoretical model through regression and
correlation analysis.
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CHAROENNGAM and YEH (1999) “Contractual risk and liability sharing in hydropower Construction”, International Journal of Project Management, vol.
17, no.1, pp. 29-37.
CHRISTENSEN and WALKER (2004) “Understanding the role of vision in project
success”, Project Management Journal,vol.35, no. 3, pp. 39-52.
GARCIA, Ayuso (2003) “Intangibles lessons from the past and a look into the future”, Journal of Intellectual Capital. vol. 4, no.4, pp. 597-604.
JAAFRI, Ali (1999) “Management of risks, uncertainties and opportunities on
projects: Time for a fundamental shift” , International Journal of Project
Management, vol. 19, pp. 89-101.
KENDRICK (2003), Identifying and Managing Project Risk: Essential Tools for Failure-proofing your Project, New York : AMACOM.
KERSTI and DEREK (2005) “Project outcomes and outputs: Making the intangible
tangible”, Measuring Business Excellence, vol. 9, no.4, pp. 55 – 68.
PROJECT MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE (2000), A Guide to the Project Management
Body of Knowledge, Sylva : NC.
ROGER and DONALD (2001) “Understanding and managing risks in large engineering projects”, International Journal of Project Management, vol.19,
pp.437-443.
WARD and CHAPMAN (2003) “ Transforming project risk management into project uncertainty management”, International Journal of Project Management, vol.21, no. 2, pp. 97-105.
105
JOURNAL OF BUSINESS, ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE (İŞLETME, İKTİSAT
VE SİYASET BİLİMİ DERGİSİ) YAYIN KOŞULLARI VE YAZIM KURALLARI
1) “İşletme, İktisat ve Siyaset Bilimi ” dergisi bağımsız ve önyargısız kör
hakemlik ilkelerine dayanan bir dergidir.
2) Dergi yılda iki defa yayımlanır.
3) Dergide işletme, iktisat, siyaset bilimi temel alanları ile ekonometri,
çalışma ekonomisi, uluslararası ilişkiler, insan kaynakları yönetimi gibi
alanları içerisine giren, özgün nitelikte ve ilgili olduğu literatüre katkı
sağlayan ampirik ve teorik makalelerin yayımlanması hedeflenmektedir.
4) Derginin yayın dili Türkçe ve İngilizcedir ayrıca yaygın olarak kullanılan
diğer dillerde yazılmış makalelerin yayınlanması yayın kurulunun
kararına bağlıdır.
5) Dergiye gönderilen yazıların daha önce hiçbir yerde yayınlanmamış veya
yayınlanmak üzere sunulmamış olması gereklidir.
6) Hakemlerden gelen raporlar doğrultusunda, makalenin yayınlanmasına,
rapor çerçevesinde yazar(lar)dan düzeltme, ek bilgi ve kısaltma
istenmesine veya yayınlanmamasına karar verilmekte ve bu karar
yazar(lar)a bildirilmektedir.
7) Makaleler, www.iisbd.org adresine entegre edilen Online Makale Sunum
sistemi ile veya bilgi@iisbd.org e-posta adresine gönderilmelidir.
8) Dergide yayımlanan yazıların telif hakları, yazar(lar) tarafından karşılıksız
olarak “İşletme, İktisat ve Siyaset Bilimi” Dergisine devredilmiş sayılır.
9) Yazıların yayımlanması için en az iki hakemin olumlu görüş bildirmesi
şarttır. Hakemlerden birinin olumlu, diğerinin olumsuz görüş bildirmesi
halinde üçüncü bir hakeme başvurulur. Hakemlerin görüşleri
doğrultusunda yazarlardan kısaltma ve/veya düzeltme yapmaları
istenebilir. Dergide gönderilecek yazıların yazım ve dilbilgisi kurallarına
uygun olması şarttır. Makalenin yazılmış olduğu dile ait olan yazım
kuralları dikkate alınmalıdır (Örneğin, Türkçe makalelerde Türk Dil
Kurumu’nun (TDK) güncel yazım kılavuzunda yer verilen yazım kuralları
örnek alınmalıdır.)
10) Makalelerde dile getirilen düşünceler ve görüşler dergiye değil
yazarlarına aittir.
11) Gönderilen yazılar 1.1 satır aralıklı, tablolar, şekiller, dipnotlar, kaynakça
ve ekleri ile birlikte en fazla 25 sayfa olmalıdır. Makale A4 sayfası
boyutunda olmalıdır. Yazılar 10 punto büyüklüğünde ve “Calibri” yazı
karakteri kullanılarak hazırlanmalıdır.
12) Sayfa düzeni için üst 6 cm, alt 5 cm ve kenarlarda sağdan 3,5 cm, soldan
4,5 cm boşluk bırakılmalı ve her sayfa numaralandırılmalıdır.
Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
13) Yazının ilk sayfasına ilişkin ilkeler:
•
Yazının başlığı, Türkçe ve seçilen yabancı dilde, 13 punto olarak
sola dayalı ve kelimelerin ilk harfleri büyük harf ile yazılmalıdır;
•
Yazar(lar)’ın ad ve soyadı başlığın altında yer almalı (12 punto) ve
isim sonuna iliştirilecek bir yıldızla yazar (lar)’ın kişisel ve iletişim
bilgileri sayfa sonunda dipnot şeklinde gösterilmelidir;
•
Gönderilen makalelerin başında, Türkçe Başlık, Türkçe Özet ve
seçilen yabancı dilde Başlik ve Özet yer almalıdır;
•
Türkçe ve tercih edilen yabancı dilde olarak yazılmış 100 kelimelik
özetler 10 punto olarak verilmelidir;
•
Özetin üzerindeki başlık özetin hemen üstünde, özet dilinde ve 10
punto koyu olarak verilmelidir;
•
Özetlerde; amaç, yöntem ve temel sonuçlara ilişkin bilgilerin yer
almasına özen gösterilmelidir;
•
Özetlerin altlarında anahtar kelimeler (keywords) seçilen yabancı
dilde ve Türkçe olarak yazılmalıdır ve 10 punto koyu ve italik olarak
belirtilmelidir;
•
Özetlerde kısaltma kullanılmamalıdır;
14) Tüm metinde (özetler dahil) her bölümde paragraf başları 1 cm içerden
yazılmalıdır.
15) Şekil şartlarına veya dergi konusuna uymayan yazılar ön inceleme
sonrasında hakemlere gönderilmeden yazar(lar)a iade edilir.
16) Makalede tablolar dışında yer alan bütün şekiller (fotoğraf, çizim,
diyagram, grafik, harita vb.) “Şekil” olarak adlandırılmalıdır. Tablolara
ve Şekillere 10 punto olarak başlık (sıra numarası ve ad) verilmelidir.
(Tabloların ve Şekillerin içerisindeki yazılar 9 punto olmalıdır.)
17) Tablolarda başlıklar üstte sola dayalı, Şekillerde ise altta sola dayalı
yazılmalıdır. Tablolar veya Şekillere ilişkin kaynak bilgileri Tablo ve/
veya Şeklin altında gösterilmelidir. Tablolara ve Şekillere ilişkin kaynak
belirtilmesinde işbu yazım kurallarının ‘Referansların Gösterilmesi’
başlığında belirtilen ilkelere uyulmalıdır.
18) Ayrıca LaTeX/BibTeX kullanıcıları, referanslarını düzenlerlerken LaTeX
dosya stili olan cje.sty ve harvard.sty ile birlikte BibTeX dosya stili olan
cje.bst dosya biçimini kullanmalıdır.
19) Denklemlerde verilecek sıra numaraları parantez içinde ve sağa dayalı
olarak yer almalıdır.
20) Metin içerisinde kullanılan yabancı terimler italik yazılmalıdır ve parantez
içerisinde Türkçesi yer almalıdır.
108
21) Metin içerisindeki atıflarda bilimsel (Harvard) yöntem kullanılacaktır.
Kaynaklara atıfta bulunurken yayın bilgileri, metinde parantez içinde
(yazar soyadı, yayın tarihi ve gerekliyse sayfa numarası) sırasıyla
verilmelidir. Örneğin;
a. Tek yazar (Linus, 1989: 102);
b. Tek yazar ve belli sayfa aralığından atıflarda bulunurken
(Richard, 1999: 25-38);
c. Tek yazar ve farklı sayfalardan atıflarda bulunurken (Locke,
2009: 45, 87, 98);
d. İki yazarlı (Locke ve Shephard, 1985: 25);
e. Çok yazarlı (Hume et al, 1875);
f.
Bir yazarın aynı yıl içinde yapmış olduğu birden fazla çalışması
kaynak olarak kullanılıyorsa (Hume, 1992a), (Hume, 1992b);
g. Aynı yazarın farklı yıllarda yayınlanmış eserlerinden
alıntı yapılması durumunda, kaynaklar kronolojik olarak
gösterilmelidir (Hurley, 1991), (Hurley, 2001), (Hurley, 2010);
h. Atıf yapılan kaynaklar birden fazla olduğunda alfabetik sıraya
göre yer vermelidir (Bentham, 1998; Faraday, 1997; Locke,
1986);
i.
Bir Kurum’un veya Grup’un eseri olan yayınlara ilk defa yapılacak
bir atıf için (Türk Psikologlar Derneği [TPD], 1989); bu kaynağın
sonraki tekrarlarında (TPD, 1989);
j.
Tarihsiz Çalışmalar’da “Tarih yok ” ty (Jacob, ty)
olarak verilmelidir.
22) Metin İçinde Alıntı Yapma (Quotation)
Kullanılan alıntı 40 kelimeden kısaysa çift tırnak içinde ve metinle
birlikte verilmelidir. Alıntı yapılan metinde çift tırnak varsa bu tek tırnağa
dönüştürülmelidir.
Örneğin,
Bilimi çeşitli şekillerde tanımlamak mümkündür.
Yıldırım (1991, :95) bilimi “dünyamızda olup biten olguları ‘betimleme ve
açıklama’ yoluyla anlama girişimidir” şeklinde tanımlıyor.
Eğer alıntı yapılacak metin 40 kelimeyi geçiyorsa ayrı bir paragraf
halinde blok hizalama yapılmalıdır ve sol kenardan 2 cm paragraf
içeride verilmelidir. Eğer alıntı yapılan metinde aynı cümle içinde kelime
atlanarak yazılıyorsa bu üç nokta (…) ile, eğer bazı cümleler atlanıyorsa
bu dört nokta (….) ile belirtilmelidir.
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Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Örneğin,
Bilim, dünyamızda olup biten olguları betimleme ve açıklama
yoluyla anlama girişimidir. Olguları betimleme, onları
saptama, sınıflama ve dile getirme gibi işlemleri kapsar.…
Bilimin açıklama yönüne gelince bu konu bizi çok daha geniş
sorunlara götürecek niteliktedir. … hipotez, doğa yasası, teori,
nedensellik ve olasılık ilkeleri gibi kavramları ele almaya ihtiyaç
vardır (Yıldırım, 1991, :95).
23) Referansların Gösterilmesi
Kitaplar
Yazar(lar)ın Soyadı, ve Adı (yıl) Kitabın Adı, Yayınevi, Basım Yeri.
BENTHAM, Jeremy (1994) Find It fast: how to uncover expert information
on any subject, HarperPerennial, New York.
LOCKE, John & HUME, Desmond (1994) Thermodynamics: an engineering
approach, McGraw Hill, London.
Editörlü Kitap
Editör(ler) in Soyadı, Adı (edt.) (Yıl) Kitabın Adı, Yayınevi, Basım Yeri, ve
varsa sayfa numarası.
SHEPHARD, Jack (edt.) (2004) Medical Operation’s Ethics, Lost Yayın ve
Dağıtım, İstanbul.
Editörlü Kitaptan Bölüm
Yazar(lar)ın Soyadı, Adı (Yıl) Bölümün Başlığı, Editör(ler) in Soyadı, Adının
Baş harfi. (edt.) Kitabın Adı, yayımevi, Basım Yeri, Sayfa Aralığı.
FARADAY, Daniel (1995) “Transportation & Planning”, Charles Widmore
(Editör), The civil engineering handbook, CRC Press, Boca Raton, :231261.
Dergilerdeki Makaleler
Yazar(lar)ın Soyadı, Adı (yıl) Makalelin Başlığı, Derginin Adi, Cilt no,sayı
no,sayfa aralığı.
LITTLETON, Claire (1996) “Processing Whey Protein For Use As A Food
Ingredient”, Food Technology, vol. 50, no. 2, : 49-52.
Elektronik Makaleler
Yazar(lar)ın Soyadı, Adı (yıl) Makalelin Başlığı, Derginin Adi, Cilt no, sayı
no, sayfa aralığı, internet sayfası adresi. Erişim tarihi.
LAPIDUS, Frank (2009) “Learning From Simpler Times”, Risk Management,
vol. 56, no. 1, : 40-44, http://proquest.umi.com. 15.06.2010.
110
24) Açıklayıcı notlara makalenin aynı sayfasında ve altta yer verilmelidir.
25) Çalışmanın içeriğinde gösterilmemiş bir kaynak esere kaynakçada yer
verilmemelidir.
26) Ampirik veriler, değerlendirme sürecinde hakem veya hakemler
tarafından talep edilirse, yazar veya yazarlar bu verileri editöre iletmekle
yükümlüdür.
27) Bu kurallar arasında yer verilmemiş bir kaynaktan alıntı göstermek
durumunda olan yazarlar; farklı kaynak gösterme yöntemleri için
aşağıdaki siteden yararlanabilirler.
http://www.library.uq.edu.au/
training/citation/harvard_6.pdf
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Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
Submission Guidelines for Proceedings
1. 1) The essays sent shall consist of maximum 25 pages with 1.1 line spacing
including all of the tables, foot notes, drawings, sources and annexes. The
essays shall be prepared in A4 size in 10 font size using “Calibri” type face.
2. 2) For the page setup, there shall be 6 cm space at the top, 5 cm space at
the bottom, 3,5 cm at the right and 4,5 cm at the left and each page shall be
numbered. Page numbers shall be inserted in the middle of the bottom of
the page.
3. Principles related to the first page of the essay:
•
The heading of the essay shall be in Turkish and in the selected foreign
language in 13 font size as aligned to the left and the first letters of the
words shall be in capitals;
•
Under the heading, the names and surnames of the author(s) shall be
included (in 12 font size) and with an asterisk attached to the end of the
name, the title of the author, the organization he / she works for shall
be indicated as a footnote at the bottom of the page;
•
At the beginning of the essays, there shall be a heading in Turkish,
abstract in Turkish, and the heading and abstract in the preferred
foreign language;
•
Abstracts written in Turkish and the preferred foreign language shall be
summaries consisting of 150 - 180 words and in 10 font size;
•
The heading shall be just before the abstract, in the language of the
abstract, written in bold and 10 font size;
•
In the abstracts, one shall pay attention to include the information
related to the objective, method and the basic results;
•
The keywords shall be included after the abstract, in the language of
the abstract, in 10 font size, bold and italic;
•
• No abbreviation shall be used in the abstracts;
4. The paragraph indentations shall be 0,6 cm inside in the text (except for the
abstracts and keywords).
5. Except for the first page, the space shall be 12 pts before the paragraph
heading and 3 pts after the paragraph heading throughout the text.
6. The paragraph headings shall be written in 10 font size, bold and the first
letter of each word shall be in capitals.
7. The first line of the first paragraph coming after the heading and the subheadings shall be aligned left and the first lines of the subsequent paragraphs
shall start 0,6 cm inside on the left.
112
8. Any essays not complying with the rules about the shape or the subjects
of the periodical will be returned to the author(s) after the preliminary
examination without sending to the arbitrators.
9. All of the figures in the essays except for the tables (photo, drawing, diagram,
graphic, map etc.) shall be called as “Figure”. The original versions of such
images with extensions (jpeg, pdf etc) shall also be sent as attached to the
essay. The tables and figures shall be given headings (number and title) in
10 font size. (Any texts in the tables and the figures shall be written in 9 font
size.)
10. The headings of the tables shall be at the top, aligned to the left and for
the figures, the headings shall be under the figure and aligned to the left.
The source data related to the table and figures shall be indicated under
the Table and / or Figure. While indicating the source related to the tables
and figures, the principles given in the “Indication of References” part of this
spelling rules shall apply.
11. Besides, the users of LaTeX/BibTeX shall use cje.bst file form which is the file
style of BibTeX together with the cje.sty and harvard.sty, which are the file
style of LaTeX while arranging their references.
12. The numbers assigned to the equations shall be given in parenthesis and
aligned to the right.
13. Any foreign words used in the text shall be italic and its Turkish meaning shall
be given in parenthesis.
14. For the references included in the text scientific (Harvard) method shall be
used. While referring to the sources, data about the publication shall be
given in parenthesis in the text in the following order (author’s surname,
date of publication and page number if necessary).
a. one author (Linus, 1989: 102);
b. one author and quote made on a range of page(s) (Richard, 1999: 25-38);
c. one author and quote for differents pages (Locke, 2009: 45, 87, 98);
d. two authors (Locke and Shephard, 1985: 25);
e. three or more authors (Hume and al, 1875);
f. if you are quoting several works published by the same author in the same
year they should be differential by adding a lower case letter directly, with no
space after the year for each item: (Hume, 1992a), (Hume, 1992b);
g. if you are quoting several works published by the same author in the
different year, respected chronological order and they should be differential
by adding a lower case letter directly, with no space after the year for each
item: (Hurley, 1991), (Hurley, 2001), (Hurley, 2010);
h. if you are quoting several works published by the different authors, listed
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Volume:2 Number:4
December 2013
authors in alphabetical order. (Bentham, 1998; Faraday, 1997; Locke, 1986);
i. if you are quoting several works published by an institution or group, it
is acceptable to use standard abbreviations for these bodies e.g. TUİK, in
your text, providing that the full name is given at the first citing with the
abbreviation in brackets. (Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu [TÜİK], 2011);
j. for citations undated (Jacob, n.d).
15. Quotation
If the quotation is less than 40 words must be included in the text and If you
want to include text from a published work in your essay then the sentence(s)
must be included within quotation marks.
If the quotation is more than 40 words must be presented in a paragraph
with a hand inside margin of 2 cm, if the quote some words are ignored
the citation must include (...), if some sentences are passed mention in the
quotation must be submitted (....) as well. This clearly identifies the quotation
as thework of someone else, and should end with the author, date and page
reference.
16. Bibliography
Books
Author(s) Surname, Name (Year) Title of book, Publisher, Place of Publication.
Kösecik, Muhammet ve Akbaş, İsmet (2009) AB Mali Yardımları ve Türkiye’de
Desteklenen Yerel Yönetim Projeleri, Gazi Kitabevi, Ankara.
Bentham, Jeremy (1994) Find It Fast: How to Uncover Expert Information on Any
Subject, Harper Perennial, New York.
Books which are edited
The Editor (s) Surname, Name (Edt.) (Year) Title of book, Publisher, Place of
Publication.
Kar, Muhsin (edt.) (2010) Avrupa Bütünleşmesi ve Türkiye, Ekin Yayınevi, Bursa.
Shephard, Jack (edt.) (2004) Ethics and Economics, Lost Publishing, London.
Chapters of Edited Books
Author (s) Surname, Name (Year) “Title of Chapter”, Title of Book, the Editor(s)
Surname, name (s) initial (s) (Edt.), Publisher, Place of Publication, first and last
page (s) number (s).
Beşkaya, Ahmet (2010) “Avrupa Birliği’nde Politika Koordinasyonu”, Avrupa
Bütünleşmesi ve Türkiye, Kar, Muhsin (Edt.), Ekin Yayınevi, Bursa, ss. 97-112.
Faraday, Daniel (1995) “Transportation and Planning”, The Civil Society Handbook,
Charles Widmore (Edt.), CRC Press, Boca Raton, pp. 231-261.
114
Print Journal articles
Author (s) Surname, Name (Year) “Title of Article”, Title of Journal, volume no,
page reference.
Kösecik, Muhammet (2000) “Yerel Yönetim Teorileri ve Merkez-Yerel Yönetim
İlişkilerindeki Merkezileşme: Thatcher Dönemi”, Çağdaş Yerel Yönetimler, vol. 9,
sayı. 1, ss. 25-41.
Beşkaya, Ahmet and Bağdigen, Muhlis (2008) “The Relationship Between
Corruption and Government Revenues: A Time Series Analysis of the Turkish
Case: 1980-2005”, Yapi Kredi Economic Review, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 67-84.
Online Journal articles
Author (s) Surname, Name (Year) “Title of Article”, Title of Journal, volume no,
Issue or number, Page number(s), Place of publication (if applicable), viewed
date, URL.
Lapidus, Frank (2009) “Learning from Simpler Times”, Risk Management, vol. 56,
no. 1, pp. 40-44, http://proquest.umi.com. 15.06.2011.
17. Indicate the position of footnotes in the text and present the footnotes
themselves separately at the end of the page.
18. All references mentioned in the Reference list are cited in the text, and vice
versa.
19. If papers contain material that is not suitable for publication in the journal
article but may be of help to readers understanding mathematical derivations
or proofs, during the evaluation process, the authors may be invited to
provide technical appendix.
20. For other types of bibliographic entries, note that the JOBEPS referencing
style is obtained from the “author-date” system recommended in the Harvard
Style. http://www.library.uq.edu.au/training/citation/harvard_6.pdf
115