IRDR Fourth Annual Conference 18th June 2014
Research Poster Abstracts
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1: High temperature pressurization, fracturing and permeability in
volcanic systems
Amy Chadderton (UCL, IRDR), Peter Sammonds (UCL, IRDR), Phillip Meredith (UCL),
Rosanna Smith (UCL, IRDR), Hugh Tuffen (Lancaster University)
Understanding the dynamics of volcanoes and what makes them erupt holds more than
purely scientific interest. Being able to characterize and accurately predict the
conditions/triggers of eruptive behavior will ultimately save many lives, therefore advancing
our understanding of the internal processes of volcanoes holds a very real interest to many
people.
The formation and collapse of lava domes has been responsible for many of the most
devastating volcanic eruptions in history. Although much progress has been made within
this field these events remain largely unpredictable.
The trigger of lava dome collapse is largely controlled by how magma within the dome and
conduit fractures and releases pressurized gases from within the system. High pressure
fracture leads to the opening of new pathways, which allows pressure to be released, and
the permeability/porosity of the conduit/lava dome affects how easily gas escapes the
system. Rapid crystallization can be an agent for large excess pressures to be maintained
within the system by sealing fractures. Competition between these processes results in
complex behavior that can control lava dome eruptions. Our understanding of feedbacks
between these processes is limited; therefore my project aims to investigate these gaps in
our understanding. I have undertaken fieldwork to Chaitén Volcano (Chile) to collect lava
dome samples and have begun an experimental program to ascertain the mechanics of the
relationship between permeability, high temperature fracture growth under deformation
conditions and crystallization.
Previous laboratory studies have investigated the effect heating samples to magmatic
temperatures has on the permeability of volcanic rocks. I am continuing this research by
further constraining the influence of increasing temperature during permeability experiments
but also including triaxial deformation to more accurately simulate real conduit conditions.
These experiments will be the first experimental investigations to combine permeability, high
temperature and deformation and will provide real insights into previously only theorized
volcanic processes. For communities living in the shadow of volcanic hazards, a greater
understanding of the mechanics of eruptions and the resulting improvements to predictions
will greatly aid the building of resilience to both single volcanic and cascading hazards.
2: Investigation of different hypothetical earthquake scenarios
triggering tsunamis on the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
Andria Sarri, (UCL, IRDR) Serge Guillas, Department of Statistical Science, (UCL)
Simon Day, (UCL, IRDR)
An extensive investigation of the coseismic seabed displacement as well as the resulting
coastal inundation in the case of a tsunami event has been performed for the Cascadia
Subduction Zone. The seabed deformation in the case of an earthquake event has been
realistically modelled using different fault rupture scenarios. These have been combined
with realistic bathymetry data as inputs to a highly accurate model of the induced tsunami
waves propagation and coastal inundation. The shape of the deformation has been
represented by a set of arbitrary shaped 4-sided polygons, where the arbitrary shape allows
the realistic representation of the geometry. This representation is more advanced and
closer to reality compared to previous similar studies. Time series evaluations of the wave
elevation obtained at many gauges and statistical emulation has been applied. Statistical
IRDR Fourth Annual Conference 18th June 2014
Research Poster Abstracts
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emulators approximate the expensive computer model and they are powerful tools for
analyses require a large number of model evaluations. The emulator predictions are
relatively accurate and they are improved significantly further with the application of
Functional Principal Component Analysis, which leads to a better choice of the outputs
regression functions.
In a related study, a simple bathymetry is used to compare the seabed deformation form
that have been used for the Cascadia study with simpler representations of coseismic
seabed deformations that are used in the existing tsunami modelling literature. These
include single rectangular blocks, parallel lines of blocks (“piano keys”) and regular grids of
blocks derived from finite fault solution seismic modelling. The quadratic curves that have
been used to represent the coseismic deformation for the Cascadia study avoid the “step”
artefacts between blocks that are present in these simpler representations. The purpose of
the analysis is to check how important accurate representations of seabed deformations are
for model predictions of the induced tsunami waves and in particular whether poor
representation is responsible for artefacts observed in many published tsunami model
outputs.
3: Communities, institutions and flood risk: mobilising social capital
to enhance community resilience
Andrew Fox (Plymouth University)
Over recent years, community resilience has been increasing in popularity as a topic for
detailed study. During that time, academic researchers have been working to untangle the
complex network of social relationships that define the concept. In parallel, some
institutions have set the achievement of enhanced community resilience as a policy goal.
This research has sought to assist in both areas: first, by contributing to the academic
debate and second, to build a clearer understanding of how institutions can tailor policies to
ensure success in their goal of enhancing community resilience.
A case study approach was adopted for the research, centring on three communities in the
Teign Estuary of South Devon (Newton Abbot, Teignmouth and Shaldon). All three
communities were vulnerable to tidal flooding and links between the communities and
institutions responsible for managing flood risk (FRM framework) were analysed. In the
analysis, a specific form of social capital was studied: social capital derived from
community-institution links (CISC). CISC was found to be effective in revealing links with the
greatest potential to enhance the resilience of communities against flood risks.
This research concluded that the UK FRM policy framework was robust, aligning well with
academic theory. However, the FRM system was revealed as being dominated by expert
elites. These elites are mainly public sector based and were judged to be stifling the
engagement of the private sector at the local level. To enhance their resilience, this study
determined that communities need to investment in CISC, but that investment must not just
be targeted at public sector FRM institutions alone, it also needs to target private sector
FRM institutions.
IRDR Fourth Annual Conference 18th June 2014
Research Poster Abstracts
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4: The thermal expansion of sea ice
Ben Lishman, (UCL IRDR), Aleksey Marchenko, (UCL IRDR)
As sea ice warms and cools, it changes volume, which can exert stresses on structures in
ice, or lead to unpredictable behaviour of sensors embedded in the ice. Engineers initially
followed a law of expansion in which melting and freezing brine in enclosed pockets leads
to a varying expansion coefficient different from that of pure ice. However, more recent
theories suggest that brine in sea ice is unconfined, and so the expansion coefficient of sea
ice is identical to that of pure ice. This work proposes that the answer lies between these
two extremes, since sea ice is a porous material of finite permeability. New experimental
results support this theory. Potential applications for increasing the safety of engineered
structures in the Arctic are discussed.
5: The development of a vulnerabilities indicator library for coastal
flood risk management at a European scale
Christophe Viavattene, Sally Priest, Paula Micou, Damon Owen (Flood Hazard Research
Centre, Middlesex University)
Recent and historic low frequency, high-impact events (Xynthia, Ligurian Flash Floods, the
1953 North Sea storm surge etc) have demonstrated the flood risks faced by exposed
coastal areas in Europe. The hazard probability is likely to increase due to a changing
climate with more frequent and violent instances of surge-driven floods, wind damage,
erosion, overtopping and rain-driven flash flooding. The number and value of receptors in the
coastal area also increases due to continued economic development and population growth.
As part of the FP7 EU RISCKIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts toolkit) project,
a coastal vulnerability indicator library will be produced consisting of ecosystems, built
environment, human population, critical infrastructure and the overall characteristics of the
coastal system. The library will include data at European, national and local levels and will be
gathered, in large part, through a multitude of interviews with various members of the coastal
community at 11 case study sites across Europe.
The poster will give a brief outline of the current challenges in developing vulnerability
indicators and how the library will be organised to facilitate the use of the data. Finally the
poster will describe how the vulnerability library will feed into a Coastal Risk Assessment
Framework (CRAF). The CRAF will evaluate coastal risk at regional scale and identify “hot
spots” to assist coastal practitioners to choose the best prevention, mitigation and
preparedness measures for their coast.
The work described in this abstract was supported by the European Community's 7th
Framework Programme through the grant to the budget of RISC-KIT, contract no. 603458,
and by contributions by the partner institutes.
6: The importance of engagement for community resilience.
Genevieve Goatcher (postgraduate student at Coventry University)
In order to strengthen community resilience to local hazards, it is important that members of
that community are engaged with in risk reduction processes. Research has shown that
their input greatly improves their resilience and reduces their vulnerability, in a number of
ways. Community members are likely to have a wealth of local knowledge about local
IRDR Fourth Annual Conference 18th June 2014
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hazards and vulnerabilities, can provide a qualitative element to the risk reduction process,
and can provide useful feedback for evaluative purposes. Communicating can help identify
key community members who are passionate and able to build resilience. Their knowledge,
commitment and support is also key to sustainability of risk reduction and resilience
approaches. However, there are difficulties and challenges in listening to communities as
well. Communities may be biased and focused upon their own agenda, may falsely perceive
local risks, and may also be reluctant to engage with agencies if their experiences in the
past have been negative. Research has shown that it is important to include a variety of
voices and skills, to have a clear approach, to maintain a balance between compromise and
achieving goals, and to maintain an ethical approach.
7: Are Earthquakes in Corinth rift random in time?
Georgios Michas (UCL, IRDR) Filippos Vallianatos (UCL, IRDR -Technological Educational
Institute of Crete, Greece), Peter Sammonds (UCL, IRDR)
Corinth rift (central Greece) is one of the most seismically active areas in Europe due to a
rapid continental extension that classifies Corinth rift among the fastest extending
continental rifts of the world. The high earthquake activity of the area is revealed from both
historic and instrumental records, where several earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6
have occurred in the past. The last major earthquake was the 1995 Aigion earthquake
(Ms=6.2) that occurred in the west part of the rift and caused severe damages in the city of
Aigion and 26 deaths. In such seismically active and high populated areas it is crucial to
better understand earthquake mechanics so as to increase resilience for the society and
infrastructures. Regarding the earthquake generation process, one of the main research
questions that concerns earth scientists is whether earthquakes are occurring randomly in
time or they possess a kind of “memory”, where the time of occurrence of the next
earthquake is related to the time of the previous ones. This effect is evident in aftershock
sequences, where a main strong earthquake triggers a large number of aftershocks over a
period of few days, up to some months or years. Generally, if earthquakes are occurring
randomly in time, their temporal distribution will be of the exponential type. In the other
hand, if some kind of “memory” exists in the process, earthquakes tend to cluster in time
and exhibit a power-law type distribution. By analyzing the 1964-2013 instrumental
earthquake catalog for the Corinth rift, we can see that the distribution of time intervals
between the successive earthquakes can be described by two power-laws, the first one
being associated to aftershocks and the second one to the long-term memory of the
seismogenic process in the area. In the frame of statistical mechanics, we derive a model to
describe this behavior. This model is related to the non-stationary character of the
earthquake activity, where periods of low to moderate activity are interspersed by sudden
seismic bursts, which are related to frequent earthquake swarms and the occurrence of
stronger events, followed by aftershock sequences. This type of model helps us understand
better the physical mechanism of seismogenesis and improve the efficiency of probabilistic
earthquake hazard assessments.
Acknowledgments: G. Michas wishes to acknowledge the financial support from the Greek
State Scholarships Foundation (IKY). This work has been accomplished in the framework of
the postgraduate program and co-funded through the action “Program for scholarships
provision I.K.Y. through the procedure of personal evaluation for the 2011-2012 academic
year” from resources of the educational program “Education and Life Learning” of the
European Social Register and NSRF 2007- 2013.
IRDR Fourth Annual Conference 18th June 2014
Research Poster Abstracts
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8: Decoding the 1995 Kobe Earthquake, a nonextesive statistical
physics approach
Giorgos Papadakis, (UCL, RDR) Filippos Vallianatos (UCL, IRDR, Technological Educational
Institute of Crete, Greece), Peter Sammonds (UCL, IRDR)
This study presents the analysis of the magnitude distribution for the period 1990-1998, in a
broad area surrounding the epicenter of the 1995 Kobe earthquake. The frequencymagnitude distribution analysis is performed in a nonextensive statistical physics context.
The nonextensive parameter qM, which is related to the frequency- magnitude distribution,
reflects the existence of long-range correlations and is used as an index of the physical
state of the studied area. The examination of possible variations of qM values is performed
during the period 1990-1998. A significant increase of qM occurs some months before the
strong earthquake (on April 9, 1994), indicating the start of a preparation phase towards the
Kobe earthquake. It should be noticed that this increase coincides with the occurrence of
six seismic events. Each of these events has a magnitude equal to M=4.1. The evolution of
seismicity along with the increase of qM indicate the system’s transition away from
equilibrium and its preparation to release energy. It seems that the variations of qM values
reflect rather well the physical evolution towards the 1995 Kobe earthquake, and that qM
can be used as an earthquake precursor. The use of the thermostatistical parameter qM for
the improvement of earthquake forecasting is of crucial importance.
Acknowledgements: G. Papadakis acknowledges the financial support from the Greek State
Scholarships Foundation (IKY). This work has been accomplished in the framework of the
postgraduate program and co-funded through the action “Program for scholarships
provision I.K.Y. through the procedure of personal evaluation for the 2011-2012 academic
year” from resources of the educational program “Education and Life Learning” of the
European Social Register and NSRF 2007- 2013.
9: Optimizing the role of critical facilities and infrastructures in
cascading disasters: from physical damages to effective social
resilience
Gianluca Pescaroli, David Alexander
In March 2011 the Tōhoku earthquake generated a massive Tsunami that hit Japan. Huge
damages were suffered by the country seen by many as a model for effective mitigation
strategies against natural disasters. Suddenly, schools that were built near the Ocean with
the best purposes become terrible examples of unsafe planning strategies, while the chain
effects generated by the Great East Japan Earthquake were wider and unexpected. Three
nuclear reactors in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant started to release radioactive
materials, resulting in a major meltdown.
The interdependency of systems and infrastructures which was perceived as one of the
strong elements of globalization revealed all its weaknesses, and highlighted the importance
of a wider understanding of Cascading Disasters in contemporary societies.
This thesis is integrated in the overall frame of “FORTRESS” (Foresight Tools for
Responding to cascading effects in a crisis, (http://fortress-project.eu), a project started in
April 2014 and financed by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme. Our
institute is part of a thirteen partners’ consortium from eight European countries, lead by the
Technische Universität Berlin. My work will be focused on three main research questions
IRDR Fourth Annual Conference 18th June 2014
Research Poster Abstracts
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•
•
•
How the differences between Critical Facilities and Critical Infrastructures can be
used for a wider understanding of social impacts in cascading disasters?
Is it possible to develop a new facility ranking that considers both physical effects
and social damages?
In which way and in which proportion this ranking can be determined/oriented by the
local context?
Currently, my research is providing a review of the state of art on cascading disasters and
their complex interrelations with the social machinery. The analysis aims to point out the
central roots of vulnerability that are common to communities, policies, and space (intended
both as physical element and anthropomorphic construct). What emerges until now is that
certain spatial nodes are becoming increasingly critical in determining the cascading effects
of disasters, both in functional and structural term. That knowledge is going to be
systematized into a first list of critical facilities and infrastructures that will improve existing
categories in order to be properly applied in the Morphological Analysis developed by the
project. The Morphological Analysis will also consider the principal aspects of cause/effects
chain such as grade of interdependency with other buildings and sensibility to particular
threats. The data available are expected to improve during time, as the thesis will adopt
quantitative and qualitative methodology to fill ordinary functional categories with a more
detailed ratio inclusive of field -driven social perception of critical vulnerabilities. Indeed, the
work will include the in-depth analysis of at less a specific case study which is expected to
be defined according to the evolution of FORTRESS’ scenarios.
10: Self-protective behaviour during earthquake shaking
Gillian Dacey (UCL, IRDR)
!
It is well documented that earthquakes have the power to cause tens of thousands of
deaths with many more thousands injured, however the relationship between earthquakes,
the environment and the human population is a complex one.
This research looks at three factors to understand whether there is an impact on
survivability from damaging earthquakes as a result of self-protective behaviour taken by
people, and if this is influenced by advice delivered as part of earthquake preparedness
programmes.
Countries at risk from earthquakes issue protective action advice and earthquake
preparedness guidance for their citizens. This guidance typically varies in context and
details from one country to the next, however the “Drop, Cover, Hold” action has been
adopted by many countries as the primary action to take during shaking. But do people
actually perform these actions during earthquakes, and what are the outcomes of their
actions?
As well as reviewing earthquake protective action advice, this study involves conducting
surveys in Christchurch, New Zealand and Van, Turkey on the 2011 earthquakes in both
countries to compare the actions that people took during those earthquakes, and whether
there is a relationship between self-protective behaviour and survivability.
By researching the relationship between earthquake action advice, self-protective behaviour
and injury patterns, it will be possible to further understand the link between earthquakes,
the environment and people.
IRDR Fourth Annual Conference 18th June 2014
Research Poster Abstracts
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11: Many strong voices: dealing with change in the Arctic and on
small island developing states (SIDS)
Ilan Kelman (UCL, IRDR), John Crump GRID-Arendal, Norway Tiina Kurvits, Stavros
Mavrogenis (Panteion University of Athens, Greece)
The Many Strong Voices (MSV) programme at http://www.manystrongvoices.org brings
together vulnerable regions in the Arctic and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in a
collaborative effort to document and respond to the common challenges that climate
change presents to the regions. MSV supports a consortium of policy-makers, researchers,
and implementers in the regions according to the needs that they have identified. This
poster summarises MSV's scientific programme and publications, documenting vulnerability
and community- based adaptation to climate change in the Arctic and SIDS.
12: Fukushima, "calamity prevention wheel rediscovery ", and
transfer research.
John Skoyles (UCL,CoMPLEX)
The Fukushima reactor disaster happened due to the failure to apply lessons acquired
elsewhere to Japan's nuclear industry (Skoyles, 2011, Science, "Top-Flight Safety Model for
Nuclear Industry"). The Report of the National Diet of Japan, for example, identified
"regulatory capture" over the deliberation and amendment of safety regulations. But, as far
back as 1912, Woodrow Wilson, had observed that businesses "capture the government".
In 1982, George Stigler, was awarded, for his work in this area, a Nobel Prize. Calamities
occur due to accidents in diverse industries and in regard to inadequate preparation and
reaction to varied kinds of natural hazards. But the learning in regard to the practical knowhow and institutional organization needed to ensure effective prevention and response have
often occurred independently, and so in isolation from each other. The result of this learning
"balkanization" has been a constant "reinvention of the calamity prevention wheel" in regard
to effective operational procedures and institutional regulation. A need exists therefore for
centers that specialize in "transfer research" that examines calamities and the lessons learnt
in regard to their prevention and post event response that does this examination across all
types of calamity. Such research would seek to identify the common causes of human and
institutional failings that occur in such areas as (i) risk awareness, (ii) adequacy of attempts
to remove or limit potential risks, and (iii) the effectiveness of the provision of resources and
means to respond to events. Procedures, practices and institutional arrangements that have
evolved to curtail, minimize or mitigate such failings in one area of calamity would be
reviewed as to their potential for transfer to other areas. A significant opportunity exists for
such transfer research to ensure the development of effective preparation and response to
natural hazards. video: "Fukushima Hole" (https://vimeo.com/69872192)
13: Etas Model and Tsallis statistics: far or close?
Katerina Stavrianaki (UCL, IRDR), Filippos Vallianatos (UCL, IRDR -Technological
Educational Institute of Crete, Greece) Peter Sammonds (UCL, IRDR)
Aim of this study is to analyze parameters that describe the temporal evolution of the
aftershock sequence of the Mw 6.4, October 12th 2013 earthquake that took place in the
SW segment of the Hellenic arc, with the use of contemporary methodologies such as the
ETAS model and non-extensive statistical physics. It includes earthquakes between
12/10/2013 – 28/02/2014 in the region 22.5- 24.00E and 34.5 – 36.5N.
IRDR Fourth Annual Conference 18th June 2014
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In most cases, aftershock activity consists of secondary aftershock clustering as described
by the multiple Omori-Utsu formula. Ogata proposed that each event, irrespective of
whether it is a small or a big event, can in principle trigger its own offspring. This model will
be applied in order to investigate the evolution of the above aftershock sequence. Tsallis
entropy Sq is expressed in terms of the probability distribution p(X) of a fundamental
seismic parameter, as the inter-event time, τ i.e., the time interval between two successive
earthquake events(1)
!" = !!!!
!! !!! !(!!)
(1)
!!!
Where kB is Boltzmann's constant. In the present work firstly we calculate the entropic
index (q) value in the earthquake catalogue by analyzing the inter-event times distribution.
Then we computed the maximum likelihood estimates of five parameters of the ETAS model
and use them to create simulated earthquake catalogues with the same number of events
and calculated separate values of the q index. Different catalogues are produced for varying
parameters of magnitude of completeness and subsequently ETAS model parameters of the
same region. In order to obtain a better insight of the conditions characterizing the study
area, in terms of non-extensivity, we calculated the entropic index q to the background
seismicity. The variations of the q parameter through time and prior large events as well as
the connection with the ETAS model are investigated.
This research has been co-funded by the European Union (European Social Fund) and
Greek national resources under the framework of the “THALES Program: SEISMO FEAR
HELLARC” project of the “Education & Lifelong Learning” Operational Programme.
14: Coulomb stress driven earthquake sequences in the central
Apennines
Luke Wedmore (UCL, IRDR) Joanna Faure Walker (UCL, IRDR) Gerald Roberts (Dept. of
Earth Sciences Brikbeck College, UCL) Peter Sammonds (UCL, IRDR) Ken McCaffrey (Dept.
of Earth Sciences, Durham University)
The 2009 L’Aquila earthquake in the central Italian Apennines was devastating in many
ways. In particular, it highlighted the vulnerability of many of the buildings in the area to
large magnitude earthquakes. In the same region as L’Aquila, there have been a number of
historical earthquakes including instances in 1349 A.D. and 1703 A.D. of multiple
earthquakes within a short space of time. On 9th September 1349, three magnitude 6+
earthquakes occurred on the same day starting in the southern part of the central
Apennines and sequentially rupturing faults to the north along a distance of 140km. In 1703,
three magnitude 6+ earthquakes occurred within 3 weeks of each other rupturing faults
from north to south along a distance of 70km. We present the historical evidence of the
earthquakes in terms of the shaking that has been interpreted to have occurred and use this
evidence to infer which fault was responsible for each earthquake. We use this data to
explore whether Coulomb stress changes, a mechanism by which one earthquake increases
the likelihood of subsequent earthquakes on neighboring faults, can explain the sequences
of earthquakes seen in this area of central Italy. Our results show that Coulomb stress
transfer can help explain these sequences of large magnitude earthquakes in central Italy.
Furthermore, this work shows that such sequences could be possible in the future and
therefore residents, civil protection and local government agencies should be prepared for
sequences of devastating earthquakes and increase their resilience to the cascading
earthquake hazard that has been seen in the past in central Italy.
IRDR Fourth Annual Conference 18th June 2014
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15: Water Risk and its Management in the Poopó Basin,
Bolivian Altiplano
Megan French (UCL, IRDR), Stephen Edwards (Aon Benfield, UCL, IRDR), Natalie Alem
(Bolivia Rural, CENDA.), Efrain Blanco Coariti (UMSA Bolivia), Helga Cauthin, Karen
Hudson-Edwards (Birkbeck UCL), Karen Luyck (CAFOD), Oscar Miranda Sanchez (Bolivia
Rural - CENDA), Jorge Quintanilla (UMSA Bolivia)
The central eastern margin of the Lake Poopó Basin, Bolivian Altiplano (66° - 68° W, 17° 20° S), was identified in June 2012 as the foci for the UCL-Birkbeck-CAFOD-CENDA-UMSA
water risk project. The drainage system of the Antequera-Urimiri rivers that feed into the
Pazña River are discussed here following new interpretation by UCL of previously collected
water quality data from the Catchment Management and Mining Impacts in Arid and Semiarid South America (CAMINAR) project (2007 –2009). This provides a baseline that will be
used in conjunction with new water quality and social data that aims to assist vulnerable
indigenous communities by offering i) developed understanding of the local
hydrogeochemistry and sources of contaminants, ii) possibilities for reducing risk and
obtaining potable water, and iii) information for community education against mining
impacts. We find that the hydrochemistry of the Antequera River is dominated by calcium
and sulphate possibly reflecting gypsum/sulphate geology. The effect of mining is seen in
the river channel profile whereby upstream pH reduces from around neutral to acidic around
mines simultaneous to increases in concentration of many trace metals such as zinc and
iron, which remain elevated after the Antequera River feeds into the Pazña River; resulting in
the exceedance of many water quality standards. The acidic-metal rich waters are
counteracted somewhat by inputs from the neutral-neutral-alkaline Urimiri River, which is
characterised by a sodium-chloride signature that maybe related to halite geology. Risk
Quotients for trace metals are ranked and prioritized with higher risk metals being zinc, iron
and cadmium. Data shows that the Antequera and Pazña Rivers are of the worst quality,
whereas the Urimiri River is of relatively good quality with respect to trace metals and pH.
Up to 100% of samples exceed recommended concentrations for discharge to surface
water bodies for many elements, and these elevated concentrations are attributed to local
variations in underlying geology and/or contamination from mine waste; making many
waters unsuitable for human consumption if left untreated for high salt and/or trace metal
content. This understanding will be developed by new data in order to make i)
recommendations for certain restrictions on community water sources for domestic use and
for irrigation purposes, ii) highlight more favourable water sources, and iii) possibilities for
treatment of waters affected by natural influences and by mining that should be investigated
in future studies
16: Security of deep groundwater against arsenic contamination in
Bangladesh: a numerical modelling approach
Mohammad Shamsudduha (UCL, IRDR) Anwar Zahid (Ground Water Hydrology,
Bangladesh Water Development Board) William Burgess(UCL, Dept. Earth Sciences)
Widespread arsenic (As) contamination in shallow groundwater is posing a serious threat to
public health and food security in Bangladesh and other Asian Mega-Deltas. Over the past
two decades, the use of deep (>150 m below ground level) hand-tubewells has become the
most widely used mitigation response to the groundwater As crisis in Bangladesh. Also over
this time, much has been learned about the deeper groundwater-levels of the Bengal Aquifer
System through field investigation, experiments and modelling. The deep wells are
vulnerable to contamination by As drawn down from its shallow source, but the magnitude
IRDR Fourth Annual Conference 18th June 2014
Research Poster Abstracts
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and timing of the As ingress and the security of alternative groundwater pumping strategies
are all uncertain. Vulnerability to increased salinity in groundwater in some coastal areas of
Bangladesh is an additional concern. Policy direction and monitoring strategies are urgently
needed as a basis for effective management of deep groundwater abstraction. Both
requirements may be guided by predictive modelling of alternative groundwater abstraction
strategies and scenarios, accounting for the heterogeneous character of the aquifer, the
spatial distribution of deep pumping, and the likely scale of increasing demand. Current study
applies a numerical groundwater modelling approach to map the security of deep
groundwater in southeastern Bangladesh.
17: Integrating the disaster risk reduction concept into senior high
school chemistry curriculum in Indonesia
Nurmalahayati Nurdin (UCL, IRDR)
Indonesia is known as of hot spot disaster countries and sits on the top of the Ring of Fire,
which contributes to many catastrophes events. The Indonesian Agency for Disaster
Management has identified that around 136.640 schools are located in major hazard areas.
It means that students can be the high vulnerable victims of any catastrophes if they are not
well prepared by adequate knowledge
Based on a preliminary observation, the current high school curriculum in Indonesia, in
particular chemistry remains absent from the DRR approaches and less efforts has been
done to this purpose in academic manners. This research therefore proposes an applicable
strategy to integrate the Disaster Risk Reduction concept into school chemistry curriculum
that would raise awareness to contribute attitude change among students. The research will
be conducted in the selected senior high schools in Aceh province, Indonesia, through the
classroom research technique. In this regard the role of student awareness expected to be
more essential to disseminate the knowledge both directly (informing) and indirectly
(attitudes) into wider family or relatives and community as a whole. The model is expected
can be adapted in different areas in Indonesia and other related countries.
18: The consolidation and deformation of brash ice
Sally Scourfield (UCL, IRDR), Peter Sammonds (UCL,IRDR,) Ben Lishman (UCL IRDR),
Kaj Riska (TOTAL S.A)!
When a ship makes repeated transits through a channel in a region of sea ice cover it
experiences an increase in resistance. This is a consequence of the consolidation and
deformation of the brash ice that fills the channel after the ship has passed through, and
depends upon the thermodynamic and mechanical properties of sea ice. Understanding this
phenomenon is particularly important for Arctic offshore operations, such as the Yamal LNG
project in the Russian Arctic, where sea ice cover persists for nine months of the year.
The project aims to describe this phenomenon in terms of a “rate and state” friction law,
which considers the rate of movement of the brash ice and the state of its thermal
consolidation. Recent fieldwork on sea ice in Svalbard consisted of experiments designed
to explore the rate and state dependence of brash ice friction, and future laboratory
experiments would build on this in order to develop and test a rate and state friction law for
brash ice. The plan is for this law to be implemented in a discreet element model (DEM) that
describes large-scale deformation. This research is expected to directly impact on safe
shipping and offshore engineering operations in the Arctic, which is especially relevant given
the recent boom in oil exploration in this region.
IRDR Fourth Annual Conference 18th June 2014
Research Poster Abstracts
!
19: Psychosocial issues and lived experiences of (adolescent)
young women and girls after October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan.
Seema Ahmed (Northumbria University)
Key words: Psychosocial, Earthquake, Girls and Young Women, Coping and Adaptation,
Lessons Learned
This paper concerns the psychosocial issues and wellbeing of young (adolescent)
earthquake survivors. The research is about the life-world and lived experiences of the
young women and girls who survived the earthquake in October 2005 in Azad Jammu and
Kashmir, Pakistan. This research study uses an adapted interpretive phenomenological
approach. The initial data analysis presents the divergent narratives of the young women
whose lives were transformed after the earthquake and foregrounds their psychosocial
issues, wellbeing, resilience and support. Data has been analysed using both thematic and
narrative analyses. The aim of the research study also is to serve as a lesson-learning agent
for those NGOs and Government organizations that are working for disaster survivors
globally. Although, the research is about a particular village, in a rural area of Pakistan its
findings provides a three dimensional, brighter and a resilient picture of the girls and young
women in a disaster prone region. This research presents first -hand knowledge on the
psychosocial issues and wellbeing of adolescent girls and young women several years after
natural disaster. Similarly it identifies the coping strategies adapted by them with the
passage of time and raises questions for further research including: how well have the
young women adapted and how can this be incorporated in an evidence-based practice
within the broader context of professional and cultural structures in highly controlling
societies around the world?
20: Community engagement in disaster recovery: which tools?
Serena Tagliacozzo (UCL, IRDR)
Community engagement in the reconstruction process following medium and large scale
disasters is paramount if we are to build resilience to future disasters. Nevertheless the
recovery phase is one of the less understood and we know very little on the dynamics of the
communication that occurs in this phase of the emergency. Additionally, the advent of New
Media has brought new opportunities and tools through which citizens can take part
actively in the decision making of the reconstruction process. The research project
presented aims to shed light on some aspects of the information exchanged and of the
channels and targets of the communication between authorities and citizens in the recovery
phase following different types of disasters. It also investigates the drivers and barriers of
the use of social media in order to identify how to support collaborative practices between
these two actors in the reconstruction phase. Finally, the second part of the project will be
dedicated to analyse the requirements for a web 2.0 platform able to support such
practices.
IRDR Fourth Annual Conference 18th June 2014
Research Poster Abstracts
!
21: Women capacity, community resilience and sustainable post
disaster reconstruction: case study from Indonesia
Tri Yumarni, Dilanthi Amaratunga, Richard Haigh (Disaster Resilience, University of Salford)
Key words: Women Capacity, Community Resilience and Sustainable Post Disaster and
Reconstruction: Women capacity is one of important aspects that should be considered to
create community resilience and to establish sustainable post disaster reconstruction.
Despite the urgent need to mainstream gender capacity within disaster management, the
potential of women capacity for supporting community resilience and sustainable post
disaster reconstruction is rarely explored. This paper aims to identify various women
capacity and their roles for creating community resilience and practices of sustainable post
disaster reconstruction. Women capacity assessment model is used to identify types of
women capacity related to community resilience and sustainability of post-earthquake
reconstruction practices in two districts at Central Java Indonesia. The findings show that
women community organisations have insight, information, experience, networks and
resources vital within earthquake reconstruction as such capacities increasing resilience.
During reconstruction women demonstrated their capacity as income-earners, producers
and managers of food production, providers of clean water and fuel, and participants in
village voluntary labours for maintaining public infrastructures and environments.
22: Why detailed structural mapping is important for the
understanding of the seismic hazard in the central Apennines, Italy.
Zoë K. Watson (UCL, IRDR), Joanna Faure Walker (UCL, IRDR), Peter Sammonds
(UCL,IRDR), Gerald P.Roberts (UCL, Birbeck )
Large earthquakes occur in the Italian Apennines along active normal (extensional) faults.
Holocene fault scarps are well exposed at the surface throughout the Apennines, due to the
post-glacial slip rates across the faults being greater than erosion rates of the slope
surfaces they intersect.
For a series of normal faulting earthquakes that occurred in 1997 near the town of Colfiorito,
Umbria, some authors argue that the earthquakes did not rupture the exposed fault scarps,
arguing instead that they occurred along blind faults not exposed at the surface. These
authors therefore question whether the exposed fault scarps are connected to seismogenic
faults at depth and hence represent sites where large earthquakes occur. However, we
show here that evidence of coseismic reactivation was found along the surface fault scarps
in the form of a pale unweathered strip at the base of the fault plane along several fault
scarps in the region. We show that a detailed structural map along these fault sections
reconciles previous dispute between the dip mismatch observed between measurements at
the surface and at depth. Therefore, we argue that the 1997 earthquake sequence did
indeed rupture along faults that are exposed at the surface. Furthermore, the data gathered
indicates that the strike and dip of this fault are highly variable and interdependent between
each other and the coseismic throw.
This has important implications for seismic hazard. Firstly, if the faults do rupture to the
surface, rather than terminating at depth, there is a larger area of fault plane that has the
potential to rupture, and hence the maximum magnitude of a potential seismic event is
greater. Secondly, the variation in dip and strike can have an effect on the fault offset and
hence amount of slip during an earthquake; therefore it is important to know the variation
and to undertake detailed structural mapping as shown here.