Space Weather Impacts
Bill Murtagh
NOAA Space Weather Prediction
Center
National Weather Service
Boulder, Colorado
REU
12 June, 2009
Overview
 Evolving customer base for space
weather products
 Space weather impacts and the solar
cycle
 Customer actions
Evolving Customer Base
SWPC Product Subscription Service
• 1,695 New Subscription Customers in 2008
140
8000
120
7000
6000
100
Solar Maximum
5000
80
4000
60
3000
40
2000
Service begins
20
1000
0
0
Customers
of Customers
Total numberNew
Sunspot Number
Customer
GrowthDuring
During Solar
Miniimum
Customer
Growth
Solar
Minimum
09
nJa
8
l-0
Ju 8
0
nJa 7
l-0
Ju 7
0
nJa 6
l-0
Ju 6
0
nJa 5
l-0
Ju 5
0
nJa
4
l-0
Ju 4
0
nJa 3
l-0
Ju 3
0
nJa 2
l-0
Ju 2
0
nJa
1
l-0
Ju 1
0
nJa 0
l-0
Ju 0
0
nJa 9
l-9
Ju 9
9
nJa
8
l-9
Ju 8
-9
n
Ja
Multiple satellite groups
Multiple airlines
FEMA
Boeing
FAA
White House
Communications Agency
L-3
Communications
Florida Division of
Emergency Mgnt.
British Petroleum
America
Garmin
Washington St. Dept of
Transportation
Caterpillar, Inc.
Motorola
United Launch
Alliance
Salem and Hope Creek
Nuclear Stations
Example of Registrants in 2008
Status of Solar Cycle 23 – Smoothed Sunspot Number (SSN)
•Cycle 23 - Began in May 1996 with a SSN = 8.0
Peak in April 2000 with SSN = 120.8
Solar minimum in ???
• Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles
• The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred
during lower than average cycles
1859 Storm
1921 Storm
Solar Cycle 23 – Electron Fluence
Satellites vulnerable to deep dialectic charging are threatened at this stage
of the cycle (solar minimum).
Monthly Mean Sunspot Number and Electron Fluence
> 2 MeV
250
1E+10
1E+09
200
1E+08
1E+06
100
1E+05
1E+04
50
1E+03
0
1E+02
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Sunspot Number
1999
2001
Electron Fluence
2003
2005
2007
Electron Fluence
Sunspot Number
1E+07
150
GOES-10 & 12
Double Star
Mars Odyssey
Nozomi
Stardust
Kodiak Star
ASCA (Astro-D)
TOMS
Insat 2D
Tempo 2
Telstar 401
Anik E1
Jan 2007 – “The statement says the likely cause of
the failure was intense solar activity during the
period, which caused an electrostatic discharge on
board the satellite, disrupting the on-board
electronics.”
• DISH Network said that "on July 14, 2008, our EchoStar 2 satellite
experienced a substantial failure that appears to have rendered the satellite a
total loss.
• Lockheed Martin had earlier admitted that under certain environmental and
operational conditions the LM-7000 series satellites can suffer complete failure.
“GLONASS satellites are at 19,100 kilometers. Radiation is subsequently
the harshest environmental factor that navigation satellites must endure.”
http://sidt.gpsworld.com/gpssidt/Latest+News/Radiation-Forces-GIOVE-B-into-SafeMode/ArticleStandard/Article/detail/555703
Solar Cycle 23 – Cosmic Radiation
450
225
400
150
350
75
300
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
0
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Monthly Mean Counts/Hour/1000
Cosmic Ray Counts and Smoothed Sunspot Numbers
USA TODAY – 28 Mar 2005
Cancer fears limit Hong Kong air crews' New York trips
HONG KONG (AFP) — Airline Cathay Pacific has limited air crews' flights on the
non-stop Hong Kong-New York route after it was found the journey could increase
the likelihood of cancer, a report said Sunday.
Staff of the British-owned, Hong Kong-based airline say they have been limited to
just two of the ultra long-haul flights per month since it was found the route exposed
passengers and crew to high levels of cosmic radiation when they flew over the
North Pole.
Cosmic radiation effects on avionics (spacecraft and airplanes)
Ionizing radiation can interact with electronics and cause a number of different
effects, including:
 Bit-flips
 Destructive burn-out (burn-out in high-voltage electronics)
 Gate rupture (burnout of a transistor gate insulator)
 Dielectric failure
Space Weather Impacts
~Who cares and why
 Radio Blackouts
(R scale)
- Solar Flares
 Radiation Storms (S scale)
- Proton Events
 Geomagnetic Storms (G scale)
NOAA Space Weather Scales
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Radio Blackouts
Radiation Storms
Geomagnetic Storms
Geomagnetic Storms
Solar Flare Radio Blackouts
(NOAA R Scale)
- Flare produces electromagnetic radiation across the spectrum at
all wavelengths from long-wave radio signals to the shortest
wavelength gamma rays.
Powerful X17 flare
The New York Communication Center:
07Sep05 1800Z: Solar activity severely impacted all HF comms. Higher frequencies utilized
with little effect. 24 aircraft position reports and NYC ATC messages were relayed via sat-voice
between 1040Z and 1939Z..
Severe operational impact.
Solar flares also produce bursts of
radio emission, which can
significantly impact GPS.
GOES 13 SXI
sustained
damage to
several pixels
of its detector
while
observing this
X9 flare event.
Solar Radiation Storms
• Radiation hazard to astronauts
• Radiation exposure in commercial jets
(mostly high latitudes and high altitudes)
• Satellite operations:
- Satellites may be rendered useless
- Memory impacts cause loss of control
- Star-trackers unable to locate sources
• Days of poor HF (high frequency)
communications in polar regions
• Position errors in navigation systems
(NOAA S Scale)
Aviation
• Aviation interests are significantly impacted
by solar radiation storms
• Radiation storms create a communications
problem and a biological threat.
Polar flights departing from North America use VHF (30-300 MHz)
comm with Canadian ATCs. Flights will continue using VHF with
Arctic Radio, but soon switch to HF (3 – 30 MHz). SATCOM is
considered a backup during polar flights, but it is rarely available
above 82 degrees north latitude.
Manned Space Flight
• NOAA briefs
the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group daily
• Shuttle missions and space walks require particular attention
• Radiation storms are primary concern, but geomagnetic storms will
change radiation dose levels at higher inclination.
• Deep space missions will be a whole different ballgame!!!
Deep Space Missions
Mars Odyssey – Oct 28 2003 (radiation storm) - The
MARIE instrument had a temperature red alarm leading it
to be powered off on October 28. The MARIE did not
recover.
Mars Express - radiation made it
impossible to navigate using
stars as reference points
(orbiter's star trackers blinded for
15 hours). The flares also
delayed a scheduled Beagle 2
checkout procedure.
SMART-1 - Auto shutdown of
engine due to radiation levels in
lunar transfer orbit. Reported a
total of 3 shutdowns.
Mars Odyssey
Photo courtesy of NASA/ JPL
Geomagnetic Storms (NOAA G Scale)
• Electric Utilities: widespread voltage control problems; transformer damage;
grid collapse and blackouts.
• Spacecraft operations: surface charging; problems with orientation;
uplink/downlink problems; satellite drag and tracking problems.
• Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps; HF (high
frequency) radio propagation impacted; GPS may be degraded for days; aurora.
ESKOM Network reports - 5 Stations, ± 15 Transformers damaged
Station 4 Transformer 6 HV winding failure
Station 3 Transformer 6 LV exit lead overheating
Station 5 Transformer 2 HV winding failure
Station 3 Gen Transformer 4 damage
Station 3 Gen. Transformer 5 overheating
Worst case scenario…
$1-2 Trillion |
4-10 Years |
Potential loss due to widespread power grid
blackout following severe geomagnetic storm
Recovery time from a widespread power grid
blackout following severe geomagnetic storm
Source: National Academy Workshop on the Societal and Economic Impacts
of Severe Space Weather Events held in Washington, D.C., May 2008.
GPS operations
• High resolution land surveying; airborne and marine survey
operations; and land and sea drilling operations are all impacted.
“If the GPS data collected are not usable, due to high solar activity levels,
data must be recollected and reprocessed. The financial and scheduling
impact on these operations is significant, with costs in the $50,000, to
$200,000 to $1,000,000/day range.” - FugroChance
The C.R Luigs (ultra-deep water drill ship) - relies
on GPS Dynamic Positioning System for precise
drilling in 9,000 – 12,000 feet of water
Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct, the ionosphere was so disturbed that
the vertical error limit, as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters,
was exceeded. That translated into commercial aircraft being unable to use
WAAS for precision approaches.
K >4
K =4
K <4
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado
Space Weather Products and Services
– Watches; The conditions are favorable for
occurrence
– Warnings; disturbances that are imminent,
expected in the near future with high probability
– Alerts; observed conditions meeting or exceeding
thresholds
www.spaceweather.gov
SWPC’s Goal:
Provide the right information… in the right format...
at the right time… to the right people…
to make the right decisions
Racing Pigeons?
Pigeons have internal biological
compasses composed of the mineral
magnetite. This biological compass is
affected by geomagnetic storms.
Pigeon racers will not release their
birds when G1-G5 geomagnetic
storm conditions are observed or
predicted
• “The year 2000 which has been very brutal for
young bird racing here in North America and
Europe coinciding with the high of the cycle of
solar radiation in 2000” – Alberta Classic
…all have been linked to extended periods of low sunspot cycles!
Quiz…
What do all three of the following
have in common?
Titanic
Aert van der Neer’s painting, “Sports on a Frozen River,” ~1660
Stradivarius
Why are instruments crafted in the late
17th and early 18th centuries tonally
superior to modern instruments?
Stradivarius
The superior sound quality may be explained
by the climatic regime that gripped much of the
world from AD 1645 to 1715 - the Maunder
Minimum
The Maunder Minimum is clearly seen in tree-ring records
from high-elevation forest stands in the European Alps. The
long winters and cool summers of this 70-year period
produced wood that has slow, even growth -- desirable
properties for producing quality sounding boards.
• van der Neer’s painting, “Sports on a
Frozen River
Aert van der Neer’s painting, “Sports on a Frozen River,” ~1660
Late Cycle Activity Associated
with Solar Cycle 23
Halloween Storms 2003 – 3.5 years after Solar Maximum
November 2004 – 4.5 years
January 2005 – almost 5 years after max
Colorado Aurora
Photo by Ginger Mayfield
Halloween Storms 2003
A total of 17 major flares, including largest ever ~X28
Fourth largest proton event since 1976
Two largest geomagnetic storms (Ap) of Cycle 23
Significant Impacts…
Significant GPS problems
South Africa Transformer overheating
15 Transformers damaged
Many flights rerouted; altitude
changes; FAA radiation alert
issued
JAXA ADEOS-2 permanently
disabled
MARIE on Mars Odyssey permanently
($640 million)
disabled
The November 2004 Storms
Some Totals…




Eleven M-class and two X-class x-ray flares.
Nine Earth-directed CMEs observed on LASCO imagery
Two Radiation storms (at >10 & >100 MeV)
Six days of geomagnetic storming – four severe!
Seven days of
moderate to severe
comm issues for FAA
Strong GIC -Capacitor
banks tripped
NASA issues radiation
alert for ISS
Colorado Aurora – Nov 2004
Photo by Darrell Spangler
The January 2005 Activity
Five X-class and 19 M-class flares
Strongest high energy radiation storm since 1991
Three days of minor to severe geomagnetic storming
Flights rerouted, polar routes abandoned altogether
ISS astronauts took precautionary shelter
Several satellite anomalies
Extended HF comm problems
Several anomalies occurred on the
Gravity Probe B Mission
NASA JPL
GLPS
GUAM
Positioning Fails
Galapagos: Sunlit during SRB
GPS: From GPSOC at Schriever AFB 06 Dec:
“At approximately 6 Dec/2000Z there was a
widespread loss of GPS in the Mountain States
region, specifically around the 4 corners region
of NM/CO. Several aircraft reported losing
lock on GPS and were tracking 7-9 satellites,
and abruptly loss locks and were then tracking
0-1.”
Positioning fails
GUAM: Nighttime during SRB
Energetic electrons can cause big
problems for space operations
High speed streams, produce very large long-lived
electron belt enhancements
 An ill-timed EVA could deliver a radiation dose
exceeding short-term limits for skin and eyes.
International Space
Station
Electrons can produce high charging levels in
dielectrics inside the spacecraft. Discharging can
cause significant problems
• Double Star satellites – July 2004:
•In two week period, several TC-1 & 2 instruments
experienced multiple resets.
•Both the main and redundant computers of the
satellite attitude control system failed on TC-2.
Double Star satellite
Electric power companies take actions to mitigate
geomagnetic storm impacts
© ISO New England Inc.
2003
Process Name: Implement
Emergency Operations
Procedure: Implement
Solar Magnetic
Disturbance Remedial
Action
Procedure Number:
RTMKTS.0120.0050
Revision Number: 6
Procedure Owner: Steve
Weaver
Effective Date: March 29, 2005
Approved By: VP Operations
Review Due Date: January 1,
2006
1. Discontinue maintenance work and restore out of service high voltage
transmission lines. Avoid taking long lines out of service
·
2. Maintain system voltages within acceptable operating range to protect against
voltage swings
· 3. Review the availability of the Chester SVC and Orrington capacitor banks to
respond to voltage deterioration if necessary
·
4. Adjust the loading on Phase 1 or Phase II, the Cross Sound Cable and
Highgate HVdc ties to be within the 40% to 90% range of nominal rating of each pole
· 5. Reduce the loading…
Radar systems are effected by radio bursts
Air Traffic Control: The flare on December 6 resulted in
significant impacts to the network of air traffic control radars in
Canada, causing false targets and interference in the N/S
direction on scales of approximately 150 miles in length. Also on
the 6th: “Denver Center noticed strobing on their ATC radar, the
problem cleared on its own after about 15 minutes”
Very difficult to forecast radio bursts – no one-to-one correlation with
flares!
This event received world-wide media coverage