1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword..........................................................2 Macro Economic Backdrop............................3-5 Union Budget 2016-17................................6-13 Railway Budget 2016-17............................14-16 Industry Allocation Sectors Airlines............................................................ 17 Media and Entertainment............................... 42 Airports........................................................... 18 Mining and Minerals....................................... 43 Auto Ancillaries............................................... 19 Non-ferrous Metals.................................... 44-45 Automobiles.................................................... 20 Oil and Gas...................................................... 46 Banking & Financial Services...................... 21-24 Paper.......................................................... 47-48 Cement............................................................ 25 Petrochemicals................................................ 49 Chlor Alkali................................................. 26-27 Pharmaceuticals.............................................. 50 Coal................................................................. 28 Pipes........................................................... 51-52 Construction............................................... 29-30 Ports................................................................ 53 Consumer Durables......................................... 31 Power......................................................... 54-55 Education......................................................... 32 Real Estate.................................................. 56-57 Engineering & Capital Goods...................... 33-34 Roads and highways................................... 58-59 Fertilizers.................................................... 35-36 SEZ................................................................... 60 FMCG ......................................................... 37-38 Steel................................................................. 61 Gems & Jewellery............................................ 39 Telecom Services........................................ 62-63 Hospitals and Healthcare................................ 40 Textiles........................................................ 64-65 IT and ITES....................................................... 41 Impact Symbols Positive Negative Neutral 1 Foreword The much awaited Union Budget for 2016-17 can be treated as being progressive and time appropriate having announced a raft of measures, policies and reforms catering to nearly all the sections of the economy. The budget aims at bringing about structural changes that can help transform the country’s economy. The focus on the rural & social sector and on skill development will help us rightly tap our demographic dividend. On expected lines the government has continued with a focus on developing infrastructure. The higher public spending along with the reforms would help stimulate private investments. It is commendable that the government has been able to rise up to the challenge and adhere to the fiscal consolidation roadmap that it had outlined. Although the measure and policies are to raise growth, the focus here has been more on sustainable long term growth which need not necessarily see any significant increases in the immediate future. The measures announced to strengthen and deepen the corporate bond markets are hugely welcome and will go a long way in facilitating infrastructure financing. It is hence quite encompassing. We have analyzed here the implications of the measures announced today at both the macro and micro levels to provide a complete picture of what the Budget means to us. A detailed sectoral analysis has been provided for critical sectors. We trust that you will find this useful. We would also welcome any feedback from our readers. With best wishes D R Dogra MD & CEO - CARE Ratings 2 Macro-Economic Backdrop Economic Survey for the year 2015-16 shows that India’s economic growth has been steady and robust in 2015-16 as in 201415, despite being faced with a volatile and weak external environment. The country’s economy is seen to be amongst the most stable and amongst the best performing, helped by the moderation in inflation, government’s fiscal consolidation measures and expenditure incurred towards building infrastructure. The survey although optimistic about the economic potential and opportunities, brings to the fore the challenges faced by the country in sustaining growth in a worsening global economic landscape. It also calls attention to the need for planning for the risks that could impact growth viz. currency re-adjustment in Asia and capital controls that could be undertaken to curb outflows from emerging markets. The survey sees the long term growth potential of the country at 8-10%, that can be achieved by promoting competition, investing in health and education to reap the benefits of India’s demographics and focus on the agriculture sector. The key highlights of the survey in terms of performance, initiatives undertaken, challenges & proposed strategy and prospects have been summarized here (A) Macroeconomic and Fiscal Performance • GDP growth in FY16 is projected to increase to 7.6%, from 7.2% in 2014-15, mostly driven by growth in the industry and the sustained high growth in the services sector. • Agricultural growth, although likely to be low for the 2nd year in a row is estimated to be better than that of last year. • Industry has shown significant improvement on account of acceleration in manufacturing. • Low levels of inflation have come to prevail owing to the decline in commodity prices viz. crude oil and confidence in price stability has improved. WPI has turned negative in this fiscal to register growth at -2.8% declining from 2% in FY15. CPI inflation has halved in the last three years to decline from high levels of 10.2% in FY13 to 4.9% in FY16 (until Jan’16). • Despite falling exports, a declining import bill helped trade deficit decrease to $ 106.8 billion in Apr-Jan’16 period this fiscal. • The Current Account Deficit (CAD) has declined to 1.4% of GDP (Apr-Sep’15) and foreign exchange reserves have risen to US$ 351.5 billion in early February, 2016. • Indian trading environment has seen substantial improvement with FTAs doubling to 42 since mid -2000s and several mega-regional trading agreements with world’s largest traders (USA, Japan, EU) • Saving and investment have not shown improvements • The rupee has depreciated vis-à-vis the US dollar, like most other currencies in the world, although less so in magnitude and at the same time appreciated against a number of other major currencies. • On the fiscal side – • Improvements have been recorded in indirect tax collection efficiency, quality of spending and fiscal consolidation. • The government tax revenues for 2015-16 are expected to be higher than budgeted levels. • Capital expenditure has increased by 0.6% in 2015-16 at both the state and central level. • In commitment to the fiscal consolidation path laid out by the government it is estimated to contain Fiscal deficit at 3.9% as mentioned in the budget estimates. 3 Table 1: Snapshot of Macro-economic Indicators (%) GDP growth FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 5.6 6.6 7.2 7.6 Inflation (WPI) 7.4 6.0 2.0 -2.8* Inflation (CPI) 10.2 9.5 5.9 4.9* Savings rate 33.8 33 33 n.a Capital Formation 38.6 34.7 34.2 n.a 4.8 1.7 1.3 1.4# 292.0 304.2 341.6 349.6* Export -1.8 4.7 -1.3 -17.6* Import 0.3 -8.3 -0.5 -15.5* CAD Forex Reserves ($ bn) Source: Economic Survey 2015-16, *up to Jan’16, ^upto Dec’15 #until H1FY16 (B) Policy Initiatives • FDI has been liberalized across the board and vigorous efforts have been undertaken to ease the cost of doing business. • Settlement of the Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) imposed on foreign companies aimed at restoring stability and predictability in tax system. • Major public investment has been undertaken to strengthen the country’s infrastructure. • Major crop insurance programme has been instituted. • Creation of bank accounts for over 200 million people under Pradhan Mantri Jan DhanYojan (PMJDY) the world’s largest direct benefit transfer programme in case of LPG with about 151 million beneficiaries receiving Rs.29,000 crore in their bank accounts and the infrastructure being created for extending the JAM (Jan DhanAadhar Mobile) agenda to other Government programmes and subsidies. • Changes made in the power sector in the last two years - addition of record generation capacity (of 26.5 GW compared to the average annual addition of around 19 GW over the past five years), moves towards one market in power, reform of discoms and development of renewable energy .Capacity enhancements have brought down the peak electricity deficit to its lowest ever level of 2.4% (C) Challenges and Proposed Strategy • The most critical short term challenges confronting the Indian economy are the twin balance sheet problem – the impaired financial positions of the Public Sector Banks (PSBs) and some corporate houses. This has been impeding private investment and economic progress.Comprehensively resolving this challenge would require 4 Rs : Recognition, Recapitalization, Resolution, and Reform • The ‘Chakravyuha’ Problem - the efficiency in the economy needs to be improved by undertaking several initiatives such as new bankruptcy law, reviving stalled investment projects, considering PPP. The exit problem faced majorly by ‘public enterprises’ can be addressed through strong institutional framework, create independent sector regulators, transparent privatisation of public enterprises. • JAM(Jan Dhan, Aadhar, Mobile) Trinity Problem - Improve financial inclusion by establishing mobile networks in rural areas. Increasing the spread of JAM by providing financial connectivity at the last level(rural households). Focus on schemes such as BAPU (Biometrically Authenticated Physical Uptake) to lower leakages and ensure funds reach the poor. • Health and Education - Investment in human capital by focusing on quality of education in both public and private sector with the need for good and well-trained teachers. Adoption of technology platforms and innovative models to help improve service delivery. 4 • Service delivery - The increased decentralisation of power between centre and state requires clear definition of roles between centre and state. Focus of centre to be on strengthening regulatory institutions, and facilitating co-operative and competitive federal structure.Focus of states to be to mobilize resources, improve efficiency in bettering service delivery. • Agriculture - need to create a self-sustaining system with reduced vulnerability to erratic monsoons, market shocks and variable productivity. (D) Medium Term Fiscal Framework: a.Focus on reducing consolidated government debt to GDP ratio from 67% by following a path of aggressive fiscal consolidation b.The government is constrained to reduce its deficit by two key factors: i. Implementing the 7th Pay Commission award would increase government wage bill by 0.5% of GDP. ii.Increased public expenditure towards infrastructural development. (E)Outlook and Prospects • GDP growth not likely to pick up significantly in 2016-17 and is likely to be in the range of 7.0% - 7.75%. There exists a downside risks to this projection that could arise from the weakness in the global economy and financial markets and an unexpected increase in oil prices that could impact consumption. • Foreign demand is likely to be weak, which requires the country to find and activate domestic sources of demand to prevent the growth momentum from weakening. • The increase in wages and benefits recommended by the 7th pay Commission are not likely to destabilize prices and will have little impact on inflation. Inflation likely to remain in the range of 4.5-5% for 2015-16. • CAD to be limited to 1-1.5% of GDP for 2015-16 5 Union Budget 2016-17 The Union Budget for 2016-17 lays down the governments long term growth agenda for the country, emphasizing structural changes and improvements across segments that would transform the nation and its economy. This is to be achieved while exercising fiscal prudence and adhering to the fiscal consolidation targets laid down in the last budget. The adherence to the fiscal deficit roadmap,despite the challenges of higher expenditure that is to be incurred on account of higher wages & pensions and public investments, shows that the government has envisaged a sustainable growth path for the economy which could be devoid of any significant increases in growth in the near term. The budget highlights the continued thrust on growth given the increases and pattern of spending and reform & policies undertaken. An inclusive growth strategy has been adopted with the farm and rural sector, social sector, infrastructure sector, employment generation and recapitalization of the banks along with the vulnerable sections being priority areas for expenditure for the government. With the borrowing being restricted, there would be no undue pressure on liquidity in the system. All this paves the way for the RBI to ease its monetary policy by way of additional rate cuts, which could further stimulate growth. Key Highlights The 2016-17 Union Budget is based on 9 pillars. The key announcements under each have been included here. (1) Agriculture and Farmers Welfare: • There has been a significant increase in the allocations towards agriculture and irrigation. • Allocation of Rs. 35,984 crore towards Agriculture and Farmers’ welfare. • 28.5 lakh hectares will be brought under irrigation and fast tracking of 89 irrigation projects. • Long Term Irrigation Fund to be created in NABARD with an initial corpus of about Rs.20,000 crore. • Unified Agricultural Marketing e-Platform to provide a common e- market platform for wholesale markets. • Rs.15,000 crore towards interest subvention. • Incentives are being given for enhancement of pulses production. Rs.500 crore under National Food Security Mission has been assigned to pulses. • The target for agricultural credit in 2016-17 will be an all-time high of Rs.9 lakh crore. • Rs.5,500 crore towards Crop Insurance Scheme. (2) Rural Sector: • Rs.87,765 crore allocation for the rural sector. • Rs.2.87 lakh crore will be given as Grant in Aid to Gram Panchayats and Municipalities. as per the recommendations of the 14th Finance Commission. • Rs.38,500 crore allocated for MGNREGS. • 100% village electrification by 1st May, 2018. • National Land Record Modernisation Programme has been revamped. • Every block under drought and rural distress to be taken up as an intensive Block under the DeenDayalAntyodaya Mission. • Rs.9,000 crore allocation for Swachh Bharat Abhiyan. 6 (3) Social Sector including Healthcare: • Rs. 1,51,581 crore allocation for social sector including education and health care. • Rs. 2,000 crore allocated for initial cost of providing LPG connections to BPL families. • New health protection scheme to provide health cover upto Rs.1 lakh per family and an additional Rs.30,000 top-up package for senior citizens. • ‘National Dialysis Services Programme’ to be started under National Health Mission through PPP mode. • “Stand Up India Scheme” to benefit at least 2.5 lakh entrepreneurs. • Set up of National Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe Hub in partnership with industry associations. (4) Education, Skills and Job Creation • 62 new Navodaya Vidyalayas will be opened. • Higher Education Financing Agency to be set-up with initial capital base of Rs.1000 crores. • Digital Depository for School Leaving Certificates, College Degrees, Academic Awards and Mark sheets to be set-up. • Rs. 1804 crore allocation for skill development. • 1500 Multi Skill Training Institutes to be set-up. • National Board for Skill Development Certification to be setup in partnership with the industry and academia. • GoI will pay contribution of 8.33% for of all new employees enrolling in EPFO for the first three years of their employment. Rs.1000 crore allocated for this scheme. • Model Shops and Establishments Bill to be circulated to States. • Deduction under Section 80JJAA of the Income Tax Act will be available to all assesses who are subject to statutory audit under the Act as an employment generation incentive. (5) Infrastructure and Investment • Rs. 2,21,246 crore total outlay for infrastructure • Rs. 97,000 crore of total investment in the road sector to be undertaken in 2016-17. • To approve nearly 10,000 kms of National Highways in 2016-17. • Allocation of Rs. 55,000 crore in the Budget for Roads. • Rs.15,000 crore to be raised by NHAI through bonds. • Amendments of Motor Vehicles Act to open up the road transport sector in the passenger segment. • Reforms in FDI policy in the areas of Insurance and Pension, Asset Reconstruction Companies, Stock Exchanges. • 100% FDI to be allowed through FIPB route in marketing of food products produced and manufactured in India. • Comprehensive plan, spanning next 15 to 20 years, to augment the investment in nuclear power generation to be formulated. • Steps to re-vitalise PPPs - guidelines for renegotiation of PPP Concession Agreements and introduction of Public Utility (Resolution of Disputes) Bill. (6) Financial Sector Reforms • Rs. 25,000 crore allocated towards recapitalisation of Public Sector Banks. • Amendments in the SARFAESI Act 2002 - enable the sponsor of an ARC to hold up to 100% stake in the ARC and permit non institutional investors to invest in Securitization Receipts. 7 • New derivative products will be developed by SEBI in the Commodity Derivatives market. • Enactment of a comprehensive law to deal with resolution of financial firms • Financial Data Management Centre to be set up. • RBI to facilitate retail participation in Government securities. • Statutory basis for a Monetary Policy framework and a Monetary Policy Committee. • General Insurance Companies owned by the Government to be listed in the stock exchanges. (7) Governance and Ease of Doing Business • Bill for Targeted Delivery of Financial and Other Subsidies, Benefits and Services by using the Aadhar framework to be introduced. • Direct Benefit Transfer for fertilizer • Automation facilities will be provided in 3 lakh fair price shops by March 2017. • Amendments in Companies Act to improve enabling environment for start-ups. • Price Stabilisation Fund with a corpus of Rs.900 crore to help maintain stable prices of Pulses. (8) Fiscal Discipline • Fiscal deficit targets retained: 2015-16(Revised Estimate) at 3.9% and 2016-17(Budget Estimate)at 3.5%. • Revenue Deficit reduced to 2.5% in 2015-16(RE) from 2.8%. • Total expenditure projected at Rs.19.78 lakh crore- Plan expenditure of Rs.5.50 lakh crore and Non-Plan expenditure of Rs.14.28 lakh crore. • 1500 Central Plan Schemes rationalised and restructured into nearly 300 Central Sector and 30 Centrally Sponsored Schemes. (9) Tax Reforms The Tax Reforms in the FY15 Union Budget were developed on nine categories namely, Relief to small tax payers, measures to boost growth and employment generation, incentivizing domestic value addition to help Make in India, measures for moving towards a pensioned society, measures for promoting affordable housing, additional resource mobilization for agriculture, rural economy and clean environment, reducing litigation and providing certainty in taxation, simplification and rationalization of taxation and use of Technology for creating accountability. • As a part of relief to small tax payers, the government proposes for individuals with income less than 5 lakh, the ceiling of tax rebate under section 87A to be increased from Rs.2,000 to Rs.5,000. The government also proposes to increase the limit of deduction in respect of rent paid under section 80GG to Rs.60,000 p.a • In order to boost growth and employment generation, the government proposed to reduce corporate tax in a phased manner, incentives provided for new manufacturing companies and SMEs in the form of lower corporate tax, 100% deduction of profits for 3 out of 5 years for start-ups set up during April 2016 to March 2019, implementation of GAAR from April 2017 and complete pass through of income tax to securitization trusts including trusts of ARCs. • In order to promote make in India, suitable changes in customs and excise duty rates on certain inputs, raw materials, intermediaries and components and certain other goods and simply procedures to reduce costs and improve competitiveness of the domestic industry • In an attempt to move towards a pensioned society, the government proposes to exempt from service tax the Annuity services provided by NPS and services provided by EPFO to employees • To promote affordable housing, the government proposes to give deduction to first time home buyers for additional interest of Rs.50,000 p.a for loans up to Rs.35 lakh sanctioned during FY17 for value of house less than Rs.50 lakh, exempt service 8 tax on construction of affordable houses up to 60 square metres under any scheme of the centre or state government including PPP schemes • Rate of securities transaction tax in case of options proposed to increase from 0.17% to 0.05%, imposing of cess called KrishiKalyan cess @0.5% on all taxable services, levying of infrastructure cess of 1% on small petrol, LPG, CNG cars, 2.5% on diesel cars of certain capacity and 4% on other higher engine capacity vehicles and SUVs, increasing excise duty on various tobacco products from 10% to 15% • In an attempt to remove black money from the economy, the government proposes no penalty in respect to income tax cases with disputed tax up to Rs.10 lakh will be levied, cases with disputed tax exceeding Rs.10 lakh subjected to 25% of the minimum of the imposable penalty for both direct and indirect taxes. The penalty for concealing of income to be 50% of tax in case of underreporting of income and 200% of tax where there is misreporting of facts • As a part of rationalising of tax reforms, the government proposes to abolish 13 cesses, levied by various Ministries in which revenue collection is less than Rs.50 crore in a year • In matters pertaining to Income-tax Act, Government will pay interest at the rate of 9% p.a against normal rate of 6% p.a in case there is delay in giving effect to Appellate order beyond ninety days. The government also proposes to change the procedure to provide for a shift from physical control to record based control for customs bonded warehouses, supported by sophisticated IT systems Budget Financial Summary of Accounts Rs. Crore FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 (RE) FY17(BE) Revenue Receipts 879,232 1,014,724 1,101,472 1,206,084 1,377,022 Tax revenue(net to center) 741,877 815854 903,615 947,508 1,054,101 Non – tax revenue 137,354 198870 197,857 258,576 322,921 Capital Receipts 582,152 563,894 562,201 579,307 601,038 Recovery of Loans 15,060 12,497 13,738 18,905 10,634 Disinvestment of Equity in PSE's 25,890 29,368 37,737 25,313 56,500 467,356 453,550 445,138 401,929 425,181 7,201 7,292 12,933 11,485 19,094 Total Receipts 1,410,372 1,578,618 1,663,673 1,785,391 1,978,060 Revenue Expenditure Internal Debt (Market Borrowings) External Borrowings (Net) 1,243,514 1,371,772 1,466,992 1,547,673 1,731,037 Interest Payments 313,170 374,254 402,444 442,620 492,670 Subsidies 257,079 254,632 258,258 257,801 250,433 69,479 74,896 93,611 95,731 123,368 166,858 187,675 196,681 237,718 247,023 1,410,372 1,559,447 1,663,673 1,785,391 1,978,060 Pensions Capital Expenditure Total Expenditure Revenue Deficit 365,896 357,048 365,519 341,589 354,015 Fiscal Deficit 490,597 502,858 510,725 535,090 533,904 177,428 128,604 108,281 92,469 41,234 Primary Deficit Receipts The government has been experiencing slowdown in the growth rate of total receipts. Over the years, the growth in total receipts of the Centre has moderated from 11.9% in FY14 to 5.3% in FY15 and 7.3% in FY16 (RE). The same is expected to increase to 10.8% in FY17 (BE). There has been a moderate shift in the composition of the overall Receipts Budget over the last few years. While the share of revenue receipts rose from 58% in FY12 to 66% in FY16 (RE) that of capital receipts has declined from 44% in FY12 to 36% in FY16 (RE). 9 It needs to be noted that although the growth rates have moderated, the government collected higher receipts in FY16 than it budgeted for owing to higher revenue receipts viz. tax collections. Gross Tax Revenue/ GDP The ratio of Gross Tax Revenue to GDP has been in the range of 10 – 10.5% till FY15. The same is expected to increase to 10.8% in FY16. The government plans to increase this ratio by improving efficiency of tax collections. Rs. Cr. FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16(RE) FY17(BE) Gross Tax Revenue 1,036,234 1,138,734 1,244,885 1,459,611 1,630,888 Gross Domestic Product 9,988,540 11,345,056 12,488,205 13,567,192 15,065,010 10.4 10.0 10.0 10.8 10.8 Gross Tax Revenue (% of GDP) Major Non-Tax Revenue Overall, non-tax revenue is projected to increase by 24.9% in FY17 (BE) from 30.7% growth recorded in FY16 (RE) and a negative growth of 6.9% in FY15. For FY16, there has been significant increase in all the major heads, barring the interest receipts which declined by 2.8% to Rs.23,142 crore. While FY17 (BE) is expected to witness significant increase (28%) in interest receipts; Dividend from RBI, Nationalized Banks and financial Institutions is projected to decline by 5.4% to Rs.69,897 crore. FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16(RE) FY17(BE) Interest Receipts Rs. Crore 20,761 21,868 23,803 23,142 29,620 Dividends and Profits 53,761 90,435 89,833 118,271 123,780 Dividends from PSEs and other Investments 13,354 25,921 31,692 44,366 53,883 Dividends/Surplus from RBI, Nationalized Banks and financial Institutions 40,406 64,513 58,141 73,905 69,897 Spectrum Sale The Government in FY13, FY14 and FY15 could not meet the target to be earned through Spectrum sale. The actual figures stood markedly lower than the budgeted estimates. However, in FY16 the government surpassed its budget estimates. The Centre earned Rs.57,384 crore in FY16 (RE) while it had budgeted for Rs.42,866 crore. The Government has projected a total of Rs.98,995 crore to be garnered through the Spectrum sale in FY17. Rs. Crore Budgeted Actual / Revised FY13 58,217 18,902 FY14 43,162 40,847 FY15 45,471 30,624 FY16 42,866 57,384 FY17 98,995 - Disinvestment The Disinvestment target for FY17 is set at Rs.56,500 crore, of which Rs.20,500 crore is to be collected through strategic disinvestments. However, in the past years it is seen that the Centre has been unable to meet the budgeted disinvestment target. In FY16, the revised figures indicate that the government was only able to achieve 36% of the projected target at the start of the year. It remains to be seen if the optimistic target is realized in FY16. However, the government has got in place a new policy for management of Government investment in PSEs, including disinvestment and strategic sale. The NITI Aayogwill identify the CPSEs for strategic sale. The government also plans to adopt 10 a comprehensive approach for efficient management of Government investment in CPSEs by addressing issues such as capital restructuring, dividend, bonus shares, etc. RsCrore FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 (RE) FY17 (BE) Total Disinvestment 25,890 29,367 37,737 25,313 56,500 Disinvestment Receipts 25,890 16,027 32,620 25,313 36,000 - - 14,000 3,000 15,000 - 3,000 - - - Strategic Disinvestment - - - - 20,500 Others - 1,814 5,119 - - Disinvestment of Government stake in non-government Companies Gross Borrowing Programme The Gross Borrowing Programme for FY17 is expected to increase by 2.5% in FY17(BE) with the Government projected to borrow Rs.6,00,000 crore. However, there is a 4.5% decline in repayments on part of the government thereby taking the net borrowing programme to Rs.4.25 lakh crore. Rs. Cr. Gross Borrowing Programme Repayments Internal Debt Market borrowing (NET) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16(RE) FY17(BE) 558,000 564,147 590,345 585,000 600,000 90,644 110,597 145,208 183,071 174,819 467,356 453,550 445,138 401,929 425,181 Expenditure Total Budget expenditure is projected to increase by 10.7% in FY17 compared to that in FY16 (RE). Total Plan expenditure has seen a steep rise of 15.3% for FY17(BE) in comparison to FY16(RE). Although non-plan expenditure accounts for more than 70% of total expenditure, it is only 9.2% higher in FY17 (BE) vis-à-vis FY16 (RE). Consequently, the share of non-plan expenditure declined in FY17 (BE). FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16(RE) FY17(BE) Non plan Expenditure Rs Cr 996,747 1106,120 1201,029 1308,194 1428,050 Interest payments 313,170 374,254 402,444 442,620 492,670 Subsidies 257,079 254,632 258,258 257,801 250,433 Pensions 69,479 74,896 93,611 95,731 123,368 413,625 453,327 462,644 477,197 550,010 Plan Expenditure Revenue Capital Total Expenditure Revenue Capital 329,208 352,732 357,597 335,004 403,628 84,417 100,595 105,047 142,192 146,382 1,410,372 1,559,447 1,663,673 1,785,391 1,978,060 1,243,514 1,371,772 1,466,992 1,547,673 1,731,037 166,858 187,675 196,681 237,718 247,024 In terms of revenue and capital accounts, the share of revenue account in total expenditure continues to remain more than 87% since last five years. The growth in total revenue expenditure has doubled for FY17(BE) at 11.9% compared with 5.5% growth in FY16(RE). This has only led to increasing share of revenue expenditure in total expenditure. The substantial increase in revenue expenditure can be in part be attributed to the centre’s expenditure towards fulfilling 7th Pay Panel recommendations and disbursements towards defence personnel’s (OROP scheme). 11 Capital expenditure, on the other hand has seen its growth rate decline from 20.9% in FY16(RE) to a mere 3.9% in FY17(BE). This has led to a further decline in share of capital expenditure from 13% in FY16(RE) to 12.5% FY17(BE). Interest Payments Rs Cr Interest Payments Effective Interest Rate (%) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16(RE) FY17(BE) 313,170 374,254 402,444 442,620 492,670 6.5 7 6.9 6.42 6.62 Interest payments account for around 25% of the total expenditure and 35% of non-plan expenditure.Growth in Interest payments declined from 19.5% in FY14 to 7.5% in FY15 but has been increasing constantly since then. They are expected to increase by 11.3% in FY17(BE) over 10% in FY16(RE). The Effective interest rate defined interest payments to outstanding liabilities. Subsidies Rs Cr FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16(RE) FY17(BE) Subsidies 257,079 254,632 258,258 257,801 250,433 Major Subsidies 247,493 244,717 249,016 241,857 231,782 Food Subsidy 85,000 92,000 117,671 139,419 134,835 Fertilizer Subsidy 65,613 67,339 71,076 72,438 70,000 Petroleum Subsidy 96,880 85,378 60,269 30,000 26,947 Interest Subsidies 7,270 8,137 7,632 13,808 15,523 Other Subsidies 2,316 1,778 1,610 2,136 3,128 The expenditure on major subsidies is projected to decline from 2% of GDP in FY15 to 1.8% of GDP in FY16(RE) and further to 1.5% of GDP in FY17(BE) with focused subsidy reforms. Subsidy bill for FY17(BE) is expected to decline by 2.86%,attributed in part to the lower petroleum and fertilizer subsidy bill.A substantial decline of 50.2% was seen in petroleum subsidy for FY16(RE). Although, the subsidies are still falling, it has moderated to 10.2% for FY17(BE).Food subsidy attributes to more than 50% of government’s total subsidy bill. It is estimated that subsidy towards this end is expected to fall by 3.3% in FY17(BE). Fertilizer Subsidy is also expected decline by 3.4% in FY17(BE) with successful implementation of ‘Nutrient Based Subsidy’ regime. Interest subsidies account for 6.2% of the total subsidy bill is expected to increase by 12.4% in FY17(BE) after having increased by 81% in FY16(RE) . The high interest subsidy may be attributed towards government’s initiatives to ease loan burden of farmers through interest subvention. Defence Expenditure Rs Cr Defence Expenditure FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16(RE) FY17(BE) 181,776 203,499 218,694 224,636 249,099 Defence Expenditure which accounts for nearly 13% of the expenditure since FY13 is expected to increase by sharp 11% in FY17(BE). The increased defence expenditure comes in line with abolishment of custom duties on goods imported for Defence purposes by the Central and State governments. Total expenditure which is expected to increase by Rs.192,669 crore in FY17(BE) over FY16(RE) is heavily directed towards agriculture sector , social schemes, welfare of Scs/STs and minorities, women and child development, employment generation and revival of banking system through recapitalization of public banks. The focus of the government is pro-poor as it introduces Crop Insurance schemes for farmers , increases allocation towards MNREGA and initiate developing Rurban clusters. The government has given emphasis to tapping the demographic dividend 12 of the country by allocating increasing sums towards education, skill development and focus on job creation. Addressing the need for developing roads and railways which would help boost both agricultural and manufacturing segment of the country an allocation of Rs.21.8 lakh crore has been made out of government’s capital expenditure towards this end. Debt Rscr Public Debt FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 (A) FY16 (RE) FY17(BE) 3,400,710 3,941,855 4,425,348 4,935,805 5,520,635 6,029,869 Internal Debt 3,230,622 3,764,566 4,240,767 4,738,291 5,311,636 5,801,776 External Debt 170,088 177,289 184,581 197,514 208,998 228,093 Other Liabilities 1,116,542 1,128,747 1,244,833 1,306,716 1,371,579 1,408,613 Total Debt 4,517,252 5,070,601 5,670,181 6,242,221 68,91,914 74,38,181 45.7 45.9 46 46.8 47.6 47.1 Debt/ GDP (%) Public debt for FY17 is estimated to increase by 9.2% to Rs.6,029,869 crore lower than 11.8% growth in FY16 (RE). Of the total public debt, the internal debt accounts for more than 96% at Rs. 5,801,776crore. The share of external debt has been moderating gradually from 5% in FY12 to 3.8% in FY16(RE). In FY17, the outstanding external debt stock is estimated to grow by 9.1% to Rs.228,093 crore. The other liabilities are estimated to increase by 2.7% to Rs.1,408,613 crore in FY17(BE). The debt to GDP ratio has been increasing gradually over the past few years, rising to a high 47.6% in FY16(RE). It is targeted to decline marginally to 47.1% in FY17 (BE) with an expectation of improving Gross domestic product. Bond Markets The budget had provided a boost to the domestic corporate bond markets. Various measures have been announced to deepen and strength the corporate bond markets. These measures will make the bond market an attractive alternate source of funding and investment at a time when the formal banking sector is stressed. •The RBI is to issue guidelines to encourage large borrowers to access a certain portion of their financing needs through the bond markets. Assuming large exposures are Rs.100 crore and above, even if 10% of these are to migrate to the corporate bond markets , the incremental funds raised in the bond markets would be Rs.4 lakh crore over a period of time. • Recognizing the peculiar requirements and quantum of funds for infrastructure, the budget has announced the development of a new credit rating system for infrastructure projects that would enable arriving at an appropriate pricing cost that is beneficial for both lenders and borrowers. Also, LIC of India is to set up a dedicated fund to provide credit enhancement to infrastructure projects. These funds will help in raising the credit rating of bonds floated by infrastructure companies and facilitate investment from long term investors. During the period Apr-Jan 2015-16, around Rs.75,000 crore of bonds were raised by infrastructure projects, assuming that 10% of these get a credit enhancement, this market could be of the size of Rs.7,500 crore. • Indicating the governments growing reliance on the bond markets for financing infrastructure, in FY17, Rs.31,300 crore of funds for infrastructure projects is to be raised by government agencies such as NHAI, PFC, REC, IREDA, NABARD and Inland Water Authority. • To attract foreign portfolio investments, the investment basket of these investors will be expanded to include unlisted debt securities and pass through securities issued by securitisation SPVs. • For dissemination of information pertaining to the corporate bond markets, a complete information repository for corporate bonds, covering both primary and secondary market segments will be developed jointly by RBI and SEBI. • Also, a framework for an electronic platform for repo market in corporate bonds will be developed by RBI. 13 Railway Budget 2016-17 The Railway Budget was presented keeping in mind the challenging times in the form of tepid growth of our economy’s core sectors due to international slowdown and the looming impact of the 7th Pay Commission and increased productivity bonus payouts. The Railway Minister presented his second budget with the focus on the customer, increasing efficiency, network decongestion, improving safety and increasing revenue. The Budget is based on the theme of overcoming challenges and reorganizing, restructuring and rejuvenating Indian Railways. The Railway Minister has envisaged three pillars of the strategy for the coming year – new revenues, new norms, and new structures. Highlights: • No changes in passenger fares and freight rates • Capital expenditure pegged at Rs.1.21 lakh crore • Target to electrify 2,000 km • Finalized bids for two locomotive factories • Commissioning of 2,500 kms broad gauge lines • North-South, East-West dedicated freight corridor proposed • 400 stations to be re-developed through PPP • 100 railway stations to be equipped with WIFI • Logistics and warehouse parks to be created on PPP mode • Holding company to be explored for monetizing assets of Railway companies • Railways will generate employment for 9 crore man days in FY18 and 14 crore in FY19 • Direct procurement of diesel to help save Rs.1,500 crore in FY17 • Time-table freight container train to be run on pilot basis • 17,000 bio toilets and additional toilets at 475 stations will be provided • Capacity building for the future through – transparency, governance, internal audit measures and partnerships • Introducing 1,780 automatic ticket vending machines, mobile apps & GoIndia smartcard for cashless purchases of UTS and PRS tickets • Security through helplines & CCTVs • Improving of customer interface • Pension Outgo budgeted at Rs.45,500 crore • Market borrowing pegged at Rs.20,000 crore 14 Financial Performance Rs. Crore Freight Earnings Passenger Earnings FY15 FY16 (RE) FY17 (BE) 105,791 111,853 117,933 42,190 45,376 51,012 Other Coaching 3,998 4,325 6,185 Sundry Earnings 5,093 6,230 9,590 Suspense Gross Traffic Receipts (361) 50 100 156,711 167,784 184,820 7.1 10.2 % growth Miscellaneous Receipts 4,307 3,971 4,451 161,017 171,805 189,271 7,775 5,500 3,200 28,642 33,220 45,500 7,975 5,700 3,400 105,996 110,690 123,560 4.4 11.6 161,017 171,805 189,271 Dividend payable to General Revenues 9,148 8,470 9,706 Surplus balance 7,665 11,402 8,479 91.3 90.5 92.0 Total Receipts Ordinary Working Expenses Pension outgo Appropriation to DRF Total Working expenses % growth Total Expenditure Operating Ratio % Source: Indian Railways • The Railway budget is based on the assumption of high revenue buoyancy in the economy as the rates and tariffs have not been changed. • Gross traffic receipts- The Rail Minister has targeted 10.2% growth in the gross traffic receipts to achieve Rs.117,933 crore for FY17 which would be mostly driven by strong 12.4% growth in passenger fare earnings to Rs.51,012 crore. Given that there has been no change in fare rates, it may be expected that the number of passenger kms would increase during the year.It needs to be noted that the earning per passenger km is expected to increase from Rs.0.40 in FY16 (RE) to Rs.0.45 in FY17 (BE). The freight earnings are targeted to increase by 5.4% to Rs.117,933 crore in FY15 which would be due increase in overall volumes. The average freight rate per net tonne km is expected to increase marginally from Rs.1.67 in FY16 (RE) to Rs.1.69 in FY17 (BE). Looking at the same commodity wise, the average freight rate per net tonne km in FY17 for coal is expected at Rs.1.79 while for pig iron and iron ore it is expected at Rs.1.55 and Rs.1.96 respectively. • Expenses- Total expenditure is expected to increase by 10.2% in FY17 as against 6.7% in FY16 (RE). The increase in total expenditure is mainly on account of staff costs to meet the impact of 7th pay commission. oWorking expenses are to increase at a higher rate of 11.6% relative to gross receipts, most of this increase is attributed to provident fund, pension & other retirement benefits which is expected to grow by 37%, followed general superintendence and services at 30% and repairs & maintenance of permanent ways and works at 25%. • Operating ratio during the FY17 is expected to increase to 92% from 90.5% in FY16 (RE) Budget Implications • The deterioration of the operating ratio will restrict capital expenditure, resulting in lower surplus on the books. • Passenger friendly measures such as e-ticketing system, e-ticketing through mobile phones, free Wi-Fi facilities, CCTVS to monitor stations, automatic ticket vending machines, mobile apps & GoIndia smartcard for cashless purchases of UTS and PRS tickets have been proposed. These initiatives will largely have a positive impact on various sectors particularly information technology (IT), telecommunication and engineering. 15 • The modernization of the railways through induction of technology will also help eliminate corruption and bring in more efficiency into the system. Also, commissioning of broad gauge lines will positively boost the demand for industries such as steel, aluminum cables, electrical equipment, etc. • Introduction of time-table freight container train and no increase in freight rates will improve movement of freight and also help in migrating traffic from roads to railways • The partial funding of railways by market borrowings of Rs.20,000 crore in FY17, would lead to an increase in activity in the corporate bond market. 16 Airlines Industry Snapshot: Currently Air India, Jet Airways, Spice Jet, GoAir, Indigo, Air Costa, Air Asia, Vistara, Air Pegasus and Trujet together control the domestic air travel market in India. As per DGCA, in CY15, Indigo had a market share of 36.7% in the domestic air travel (in terms of passenger carried) followed by Jet Airways which commanded 22.5% market share, while Air India and Spice Jet had a market share of 16.4% and 11.6%, respectively in CY15. The total air passenger traffic(including domestic and international passenger)for FY15 on a y-o-y basis showed a jump of 12.5% and the same for April 2015-November 2015 period showed a jump of 17.04% Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • Key schemes announced • Tools and tool kits being exempted from Basic Customs duty, CVD and SAD when imported by MROs for maintenance, repair and overhauling [MRO] of This is expected to reduce cost of aircraft subject to certification by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation. MRO specifically for airlines which do • Exemption from excise duty being extended to tools and tool kits when self-handling of MRO activities. procured by MROs for maintenance, repair, and overhauling [MRO] of aircraftsubject to a certification by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation Impact on Companies Company Jet Airways Spice Jet Interglobe Aviation Impact Comments + + + This is expected reduce to cost of MRO for airlines. 17 Airports Industry Snapshot: The airport sector has been opened to private sector in the last decade. This has fuelled growth in passenger and cargo handling capacity. Total passenger handling capacity of airports increased from 72 mn in FY06 to 272 mn in FY15 and the total cargo handling capacity of airports was at 6.2 mn tonnes per annum in FY15. As per the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2012-2017), total investment in the airport sector is expected to be Rs.87,714 crore, which is expected to further augment airport infrastructure across the country. The total air passenger traffic (including domestic and international passenger) for FY15 on a y-o-y basis showed a jump of 12.5% for April 2015-November 2015 period showed a jump of 17.04%. Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Proposal to develop 160 non-functional airstrips with support of state government. • Proposal to develop 10 out of 20 defunct airstrips • The proposal to develop non-operational and defunct airstrips is expected to have a positive impact on the sector, as this will result in improving regional connectivity and should result in total investment of around Rs.15,000- Rs.17,000 crore towards airport infrastructure development over the long run. Impact on Companies Company GMR Infrastructure Ltd. GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd. Impact Comments = = While these players presently operate only at major airports they may be benefited through probable participation in the development of nonfunctional airstrips. 18 Auto Ancillaries Industry Snapshot: The automobile component sales grew by 11 per cent on year-on-year basis in FY15 to Rs.2.34 lakh crore, largely on account of improvement in two/three wheeler and passenger vehicle segments post subdued period across the segments over FY12-FY14. The auto component industry contributes around 3.8% to the country’s GDP providing direct employment to 1.5 million people. The revival is likely to continue albeit at slower pace in FY16 on account of increase in demand of commercial vehicles and a reasonable uptick in sales of passenger cars which are the key demand drivers for auto components from automobile manufacturers. Additionally, the increase in localisation levels in the vehicles manufactured in India is likely to reduce costs thereby auguring well for auto component manufacturers. The demand from the replacement market is expected to remain weak for the organized sector since the replacement market is dominated by the counterfeit auto parts from unorganised sector and cheap imports. With the likely adoption of new standards of emission norms, the substantial investment shall be required by auto ancillaries segment to complement the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact 7.5 7.5 = 10 10 = 10 10 = 7.5 7.5 = 7.5 7.5 = Engine & engine parts, except the below mentioned: Silencer, exhaust pipes & radiators Drive transmission, steering, suspension &braking parts, except the below mentioned: Couplings & seals, Spark plug, ignition coils & starter motors Spark plug, distributors, ignition coils & starter motors Excise Duty (%) Engine & engine parts Drive transmission, steering, suspension & braking parts Spark plug, distributors, ignition coils & starter motors Before After Impact 12 12 = 12 12 = 12 12 = Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • Nil custom duty and 6% excise/CVD being extended • This is likely to encourage the auto ancillaries along with OEMs to on parts of electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles invest in the hybrid/green technologies. which was earlier available upto 2016 Impact on Companies Company Bharat Forge Ltd. Bosch Ltd. Sona Koyo Steering Systems Ltd. Exide Industries Ltd. Motherson Sumi Ltd Impact Comments = = = = = Since there were no major announcements pertaining to the industry, the budget would have a marginal impact on component suppliers. 19 Automobiles Industry Snapshot: The Indian auto industry is one of the largest in the world with an annual production of 23.37 million vehicles in FY15 ie growth of 8.68 per cent over the last year. During FY15, two-wheeler segments and passenger vehicle contributed to the overall growth. Besides, India is also a prominent auto exporter and growth was also on account of increase in export to certain extent. The auto industry contributes around 7.1% to country’s GDP providing employment to 29 million people and contributes 13% to excise revenue for the Government. The overall growth in FY16 is likely to remain flat with the exception of few segments such as commercial vehicle which is likely to witness uptick on account of expected improvement in the overall macroeconomic conditions. Besides, the investment in order to develop vehicles with the improved emission standards and competitive market is likely to pose challenge for the players. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact Passenger Cars Small Cars* Old 105 105 New 100 100 Two Wheelers Old New Excise Duty (%) 105 60 (75^) 105 60 (75^) Commercial Vehicles Old 40 40 New 40 40 Before After Impact 12.5 12.5 = = Mid-size Cars@ 24 24 Large Cars# 27 27 = = SUV 30 30 Buses 12.5 12.5 Trucks 12.5 12.5 = = Two-wheeler 12.5 12.5 Three-wheeler 12.5 12.5 Hybrid Vehicles 5 5 = = = = = = = = = Note: *Indicates cars which have engine capacity less than 1,500cc in case of diesel and 1,200cc in case of petrol and length less than 4 meters. @ Indicates cars which have engine capacity less than 1,500cc in case of diesel and 1,200cc in case of petrol and length more than 4 meters. #indicates cars having engine capacity more than 1,500cc in case of diesel cars and 1,200cc in case of petrol and length exceeding 4 meters. Definition of SUV as per central excise department is a vehicle with engine capacity greater than 1,500cc, length exceeding 4000mm and ground clearance 170 mm and above ^75% Custom duty is applicable for two-wheeler having engine capacity greater than 800cc Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • Introduction of infrastructure cess • With the proposed levy of infrastructure cess, additional 1% luxury a. 1% for small Petrol/LPG/CNG cars; tax on cars costing Rs.10 lakh or more and no change in the existing b. 2.5% for small diesel cars; duty rates, the prices are expected to increase for four-wheeler c. 4% for mid-size, large cars and SUVs passenger vehicles and thereby denting a demand to certain extent. • 1% luxury tax on cars costing Rs. 10 lakh or more Nonetheless, the demand for other passenger vehicles such as two• Sum of Rs.38,500 crore allocated for MGNREGA wheeler segment is likely to show an uptick due to further increase in income linked to substantial allocation of funds under MGNREGA. Impact on Companies Company Maruti Suzuki Ltd Ashok Leyland Ltd Hero Motocorp Ltd Bajaj Auto Ltd. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd Impact = + + = Comments With proposed levy of infrastructure cess, luxury tax primarily on the four-wheeler passenger vehicles, the budget shall have negative impact on OEMs such as Maruti Suzuki Ltd in the short term. For other categories of passenger vehicles barring two-wheelers segment and commercial vehicles, the impact is neutral with no change in duties. 20 Banking & Financial Services Industry Snapshot: Banks The Indian economy grew by 7.3% in FY15 as compared to 6.9% in FY14. As per advanced estimates, the GDP growth for FY16 stood at 7.6%. As on March 20, 2015, the y-o-y growth in advances (non-food credit) and deposits were weak at 9.4% (FY14: 14.5%) and 10.9% (FY14: 14.6%), respectively. As on February 5, 2016, the y-o-y growth in advances (non-food credit) and deposits stood at 11.1% and 10.6% respectively. Slowdown in economy, relatively high interest rates in the banking system, capital concerns for some banks, higher NPAs and challenge of restructured assets all contributed for low advances growth. Corporates also resorted to mobilising funds from the commercial paper market instead of banks in FY15 which also played a role in subdued credit growth. Asset quality pressure is continuing in FY16 leading to increased provisioning and lower profitability for the banking sector. Under the Indradhanush scheme, the Government has announced a capital infusion of Rs.70,000 crore for PSU banks during FY16 - FY19. Going forward, the banks especially public sector banks would need additional equity in order to meet Basel III norms and manage the challenge of asset quality stress. Advances and deposits are expected to grow in the range of 11-12% in FY16. Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • Rs.25000 crore of capital infusion was already part of the Indradhanush scheme announced by the government in August 2015. Given the deterioration in capital adequacy Key schemes announced levels of PSU banks (due to decline in asset quality and hence • Capital infusion of Rs.25,000 crore in PSU banks in 2016-17 profitability), this amount would be inadequate to meet the capital needs of PSU banks which are in need of not just growth capital but capital to comply with Basel III norms. • Operationalization of the Bank Board Bureau • Bank Board Bureau has already been formed and its effective functioning will ensure better corporate governance in PSU banks. • Consolidation in PSU banks • Consolidation of a weaker bank with a robust PSU bank will be a positive development for the banking sector • Debt Recovery Tribunals will be strengthened • This will help in effective and speedy resolution of bad assets and will be a positive development in facilitating the recovery efforts of banks. • Encouraging large borrowers to meet a portion of their financing needs from the bond market will ensure reduction in banks’ exposure to large borrowers and thereby reduce the risk of a chunky exposure facing stress. • Steps taken for deepening of the corporate bond market • Setting up of a dedicated fund under LIC of India to provide credit enhancement to infrastructure projects will assist in raising of funds by infrastructure companies thereby providing a boost to the sector which contributes significantly towards asset quality problems in the banking sector 21 Tax on securitization trust • The Budget has proposed to provide complete ‘pass- • These steps would aid in bringing in investors such as large through’ regime to securitisation trusts and tax such domestic and foreign investors in the securitization industry income in hands of the investor. However, income (through investments in Pass Through Certificates). outflows from such trusts would attract provisions of Tax Deducted at Source (TDS). • Furthermore, such actions enable easier tax administration • Pass Through Securities issued by securitisation SPVs of securitization trusts by making TDS credit available. to be included in investment basket of foreign portfolio Obtaining certificates for deduction at a lower rate would investors. minimise litigation on tax issues. • Introduction of amendment to Section 197 relating to certificate for deduction at a lower rate. 22 Banking & Financial Services HOUSING FINANCE Industry Snapshot: Over the last decade, housing finance in India has emerged as one of the most secured asset class with low delinquencies. As a result, housing finance continued to be a focus segment for both banks as well as housing finance companies and has witnessed robust CAGR growth of roughly 19% during the last three years (2013-2015), higher than the overall bank credit growth. Over the last few years many new HFCs with a focus on affordable housing have started operations. The government’s thrust on providing housing to all by 2022 coupled with significant housing shortages in the low cost and affordable housing is likely to fuel credit growth in the segment. In addition, various NHB schemes and tax incentives provided to individuals on housing loans continue to remain positive for the sector. HFCs are expected to maintain their good profitability on the basis of strong business growth and stable asset quality over the medium term. Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • For the ‘first – home buyers’, the budget has proposed deduction for additional interest of Rs.50,000 per annum • This move is targeted towards boosting affordable housing in for loans up to Rs.35 lakh sanctioned during the next peripheral areas of metros, tier-2/3 cities and beyond. financial year, provided the value of the house does not exceed Rs.50 lakh. • 100% deduction for profits to an undertaking from a housing project for flats upto 30 sq. metres in four metro cities and 60 sq. metres in other cities, approved during • The move intends to incentive the builders to undertake June 2016 to March 2019, and completed within three affordable housing projects and is expected to provide boost years of the approval to the ‘Housing For All by 2022’ project which was cleared by the Cabinet in June 2015 • Exempt service tax on construction of affordable houses up to 60 square metres under any scheme of the Central or State Government including PPP Schemes • Deduction of interest payable on capital borrowed for acquisition or construction of a self-occupied • The construction timeline has been increased from 3 years to 5 years. house property shall be allowed if such acquisition or construction is completed within five years 23 Banking & Financial Services ASSET RECONSTRCUTION COMPANIES Industry Snapshot: Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs) were setup under the SARFAEST Act, 2002 to relieve banks and financial institutions of the burden of NPAs. Major trigger for this came in November 2013 when RBI asked the banking system to clean up its stressed portfolio. With the RBI directing banks to clean up their balance sheets by March 2017 and with stressed assets of the Indian banking industry having risen to 11-12% of gross advances, the sale of bad loans from banks to ARCs is expected to increase going forward. Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Sponsor of an ARC to hold up to 100% stake in the ARCs. • Will enable ease of capital infusion in ARCs from promoters • 100% FDI in ARCs will be permitted through automatic / sponsors. route. • Permit non-institutional investors to invest in • Will ease entry of global funds specializing in distressed Securitization Receipts. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) assets seeking to invest in ARCs in India will be allowed up to 100% of each tranche in securities • May attract HNI investors / funds having an appetite for receipts issued by ARCs subject to sectoral caps. securitization receipts issued by ARCs. • Complete pass through of income-tax to securitization trusts including trusts of ARCs. The income will be • Provides clarity on taxation with respect to ARCs taxed in the hands of the investors instead of the trust. However, the trust will be liable to deduct tax at source. 24 Cement Industry Snapshot: India is the second-largest cement producer in the world. Cement production increased at a CAGR of 6.7% to 270 million tonnes over FY07–FY15. Housing and real estate sector is considered to be the largest driver of cement demand in India, which held approximately two-third total cement consumption, followed by infrastructure sector. Cement production grew by 5.6% in FY15 as compared with 3.1 % in FY14. The growth was supported low base effect and delayed monsoon in the first half of the year. During the second half, the demand was impacted by low government spending, slow down in real estate activities and low rural demand. The trend continued in 9MFY16 also with a meagre growth of 2.2% in cement production. Going forward, focus of the Government on strengthening infrastructure including road sector, development of smart cities and promotion of low-cost housing and expected revival in the overall economic growth is expected to result in improved growth prospects for the cement sector. Moreover, fall in diesel prices and coal and pet coke prices will provide some respite to the cement industry on the cost front. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact 2.5%/10% 10% 2.5% 2.5% + 200 400 - Raw Materials Basic Custom Duty on - Coal - Lignite Clean Energy Cess on coal (Rs./tonne) Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Total outlay for infrastructure Rs.221,246 crore proposed in the budget. Allocation of Rs.55,000 crore for Roads & Highways Sector (additional Rs.15,000 crore to be • Higher outlay and focus on infrastructure, housing and rural raised by NHAI). development are likely to boost the • Measures to boost construction sector, promote affordable housing (including cement demand. exemption of service tax on construction of affordable houses upto 60 square metres). and rural development • Excise duty exemption, presently available to concrete mix manufactured at site for use in construction work at such site being extended to Ready Mix Concrete manufactured at the site of construction for use in construction work at such • Overall impact on input cost will be site. negligible. • Reduction/rationalization in Basic Custom Duty for coal, lignite, etc. Increase in Clean Environment Cess on inputs such as coal, lignite on the cement input costs. Impact on Companies Company Ultratech Cement Ltd Ambuja Cements Ltd J. K. Cement Ltd J K Lakshmi Cement Ltd Impact Comments + + + + Higher outlay and focus on infrastructure, housing and rural development are likely to boost the cement demand in the long-term, which in turn will benefit the companies in the sector. 25 Chlor Alkali Industry Snapshot: The Chlor-alkali industry is a sub-segment of basic chemicals industry (inorganic), accounting for about 70% of the total basic chemicals production and 65% of the total installed capacity of chemicals in India (during FY15). Chlor-alkali industry mainly comprises caustic soda, soda ash, chlorine, hydrogen and hydrochloric acid. Production of caustic soda and soda ash together account for about 74% of the total Chlor-alkali industry. Caustic soda and chlorine are produced together in the ratio of 1:0.88 (also known as Electrochemical Unit or ECU) through electrolysis of salt. On account of their co-production, the market dynamics for caustic soda and chlorine are heavily influenced by each other. Caustic soda finds application mainly in alumina, textiles, paper, organic, inorganic, soaps & detergents industries, etc. Chlorine is very important for manufacturing PVC. It is also used in disinfection of drinking water in the pharmaceutical industry and various other chemical industries. During FY08-15, the caustic soda consumption grew at a CAGR of 3.6%. Whereas caustic soda production has increased at a CAGR of 2.3% and imports grew substantially at a CAGR of 16.1% during the same period. In India, soda ash is produced by synthetic process using salt as raw material. Soda ash is mainly available in two forms – light soda ash and dense soda ash. Light soda ash has a share of approximately 60% in total soda ash production. Soda ash is extensively used in the production of glass, soap & detergents, chemicals, silicates and some other industries. During FY0815, soda ash consumption grew at a CAGR of 4.7%, whereas its production increased at a CAGR of 3% resulting in substantial growth of imports at CAGR of 13.1% during the same period. Rising imports mainly attributed to excessive dumping of cheap imports due to disparity between the domestic and international prices is one of the threats for the Chlor Alkali industry. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact Caustic Soda 7.5 7.5 = Soda Ash 7.5 7.5 Chlorine 7.5 7.5 Hydrogen 7.5 7.5 Hydrochloric Acid 7.5 7.5 = = = = Membrane cell plant/ membranes & their parts 2.5 Nil = Excise Duty (%) Before After Impact Caustic Soda • Flakes • Lye 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 = Soda Ash 12.5 12.5 Chlorine 12.5 12.5 Hydrogen 12.5 12.5 Hydrochloric Acid 12.5 12.5 = = = = Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • Neutral for caustic soda manufacturers. Key schemes announced • Basic customs duties (BCD) on electrolysers, membranes and their parts required by caustic soda/potash unit using membrane cell technology being exempted. • Allowing free import of membrane cell technology will help the conversion of the players towards energy-efficient and eco-friendly membrane cell technology faster. It will also help the industry to reduce the cost of capacity expansion. However, almost 100% of the caustic soda industry operates on membrane cell technology. Hence the benefit of this reduction will accrue only during replacement of electrolyses, membranes etc which happens every 2-3 years. 26 Impact on Companies Company Impact Comments Aditya Birla Chemicals (India) Ltd (ABCIL) = = = = No major impact Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals Ltd (GACL) Gujarat Heavy Chemicals Ltd. (GHCL) Tata Chemicals Ltd. 27 Coal Industry Snapshot: Indian coal Industry’s domestic production/off-take stood at 599/582 MT (Coal India Limited (CIL)+Singareni Collieries Company Limited (SCCL) + Captive) in FY15. Against this the demand for coal stood at 840 MT in FY15 resulting in deficit of 29% which was met through import. CARE Ratings expects Indian coal production to reach 652 MT/681 MT (base case) in FY16E/FY17E. For 10MFY16, CIL’s production grew at 9.6% YoY to 426 MT, while growth in off-take was 9.8% YoY to 438 MT. The demand of coal is expected to grow to 884 MT in FY17E. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact Non-Coking Coal 2.50 2.50 Met coke 2.50 5.00 Rs.200/tonne Rs.400/tonne = = = Clean Energy Cess now renamed as Clean Environment Cess (applicable to thermal coal, imported thermal coal and lignite) Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • The increase in clean energy cess of Rs.200/tonne of coal is likely to garner Rs.17,300-17,500 crore yearly for the exchequer. The impact • Clean Energy Cess is increased from Rs.200 to Rs.400/ on the coal and lignite industry remains neutral as cess increase tonne of coal to finance clean environment initiatives. is fully pass-through to end-consumers (in regulated sectors like power). Impact on Companies Company Coal India Ltd. Impact = Comments Since energy cess is pass-through, the company would not be impacted. 28 Construction Industry Snapshot: Construction industry, the second largest employment generator in the economy after agriculture, is integral to support India’s growing need for infrastructure and industrial development. The growth of the industry is directly correlated to the growth of gross domestic product (GDP). In the last 10 years, construction as a percentage of GDP has been around 7-8%. The industry witnessed a slowdown in the last couple of years, mainly on account of slowdown in the economy, delay in project awarding and execution due to environmental clearance hurdles, aggressive bidding by players, lack of funding, land acquisition issues and policy bottlenecks. As on March 31, 2015, the multiple of order backlog to the net sales of the major construction companies stood at around 4 times. Duty Structure Excise Duty (%) Before After Impact 6%* - Cement 12.5% 12.5% Steel 12.5% 12.5% + = = Raw materials Ready Mix Concrete manufactured at site * With input tax credit (2% without input tax credit) Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • The continued focus of the government on infrastructure Key schemes announced development through increased allocation towards roads, • Total outlay of Rs.221,246 crore planned for infrastructure railways irrigation, ports, etc, would be beneficial for the in 2016-17. construction industry. Also, focus of the government on • A dedicated Long Term Irrigation Fund to be created building affordable houses will augur well for the industry. in NABARD with an initial corpus of Rs.20,000 crore for • Measures taken for faster resolution of issues in projects implementation of irrigation projects under Accelerated under PPP model and window for renegotiation of terms Irrigation Benefit Programme (AIBP). of the agreement will encourage participation of private • The total outlay on roads and railways to be Rs.218,000 sector through this model. crore. Nearly 10,000 km of National Highways to be awarded in FY17 and nearly 50,000 km of State highways • Availability of credit enhancement for infrastructure projects will improve credit rating and facilitate investment to be taken up for upgradation as National Highways. at lower cost. • Rs.800 crore allocated for development of greenfield ports and work on the National Waterways. • NHAI, PFC, REC, IREDA, NABARD and Inland Water Authority to be permitted to raise additional finances of Rs.31,300 crore through bonds in FY17 for infrastructure spending. Measures to revitalise PPPs: • A Public Utility (Resolution of Disputes) Bill to be introduced for resolution of disputes in infrastructurerelated construction contracts, PPP and public utility contracts. • Guidelines for renegotiation of PPP Concession Agreements. 29 •In-built credit enhancement to be available to infrastructure projects for a better credit rating. LIC of India to set up a dedicated fund to provide such credit enhancement to infrastructure projects. • Exemption of service tax on construction of affordable houses up to 60 square metres under any scheme of the Central or State Government including PPP Schemes. • CVD exemption on specified machinery required for construction of roads being withdrawn. Impact on Companies Company Hindustan Construction Company Limited Ltd NCC Ltd. Gammon India Ltd Sadbhav Engineering Ltd Simplex Infrastructures Ltd Patel Engineering Ltd Impact Comments + + + + + + Increased allocation towards various infrastructure projects is expected to result in increased order inflow to the construction companies. 30 Consumer Durables Industry Snapshot: Consumer durables industry is highly correlated to economic scenario as the industry demand is largely depended upon disposable income. Urban market accounts for about 67 per cent of revenue for the consumer durable industry in India. The rising demand from rural and semi-urban markets is likely to drive the consumer durables industry. The key growth drivers are rising income levels, easy availability of consumer credit, various policy support from the government like relaxation in customs duties and excise duty, awareness of brands and products, change in lifestyle, new model launches with technological improvements and ease of shopping through various online formats Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact Populated PCBs for manufacture of personal computers (laptop or desktop) Nil 4 Populated PCBs for manufacture of mobile phone/tablet computer Nil 2 Magnetron of capacity of 1 KW to 1.5 KW for use in manufacture of domestic microwave ovens 10 0 + Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Increased in duty of PCBs for manufacture of • Likely to result in increase in cost which if passed on to consumers computers/mobile phones may affect demand for these products • Reduction in custom duty on magnetron of • Likely to result in decrease in cost of these products capacity of 1KW to 1.5 KW used for manufacture of microwave ovens Impact on Companies Company Bajaj Electricals Ltd Mirc Electronics Ltd Impact Comments = = Reduction in custom duty would reduce the input cost which may be passed on to the consumers 31 Education Industry Snapshot: Education sector in India is a mix of government-operated & privately operated educational institutions and allied education products & services providers. India has a significant young population which calls for a robust education sector to harness potential for human capital. The sector is highly influenced by the various government schemes and policies launched primarily to improve the quality of education and the planned expenditure by the government through several schemes including the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) and Rashtriya Madhymik Shiksha Abhiyan (RMSA) to improve the quality of education and eventually the literacy level in the country. Government’s focus on education has continued in the Union Budget 2016-17 with a budget outlay of Rs.22,200 crore (Rs.22,000 crore in the budget 2015-16) towards SSA, Rs.3,600 crore (PY: Rs.3,565 crore) for RMSA and other such schemes. Duty Structure - Not Applicable Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Continuing focus on School education with an • Objective is to increase gross enrollment ratio. Private sector allocation of Rs.40,000 crore to Department of educational institutions offering primary and secondary education School Education and Literacy. Proceeds from likely to benefit with higher enrolment levels. Education cess to be allocated to key schemes such as SSA and Mid-day Meal. •Special focus on Skill Development and Entrepreneurship under the National Skill Development Mission. To set-up 1500 multi-skill training institutes and to provide entrepreneurship education and training in 2200 colleges, 500 government ITIs through open online courses. • Focus on skill development as a priority to empower and skill the youth would result in increased opportunities for private players offering skill development courses partnering with National Skill Development Corporation. • The agency would leverage funds from the market and • Higher Education Financing Agency (HEFA) to be set supplement the same with donations and CSR funds which would be up with an initial capital base of Rs.1000 crore. used to finance improvement in infrastructure in higher education institutions Impact on Companies Company Impact Comments NIIT + + Tree House + The government has re-emphasized its focus on skill development towards providing entrepreneurship education and training through open online courses. This is expected to result in higher inflow of orders to the private sector players especially for companies engaged in information and communication technology segment who are partnering with National Skill Development Corporation. Aptech 32 Engineering & Capital Goods Industry Snapshot: The key indicators representing the growth in Indian engineering and capital goods (ECG) industry which includes, new investment announcements, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), execution of stalled project and growth rate in Indian Electrical Equipment Industry indicated a mixed trend. Investment announcements: There was an increase in the average quarterly investment announcements (AQIA) for five quarters till Q2FY16 which was however followed by a dip in Q3FY16. AQIA for five quarters ended Q2FY16 was around Rs.1.1 trillion by the Government and Rs.1.7 trillion by private players, however, the announcements registered a dip in Q3FY16, with Government announcement falling to Rs.0.36 trillion and private sector to Rs.0.69 trillion. Gross Fixed Capital Formation and execution of stalled projects: Conversion of new capex announcements into actual capex remained lean as the GFCF as a percentage of GDP witnessed a dip from 29.7% in FY14 to 28.7% in FY15. However, during the first three quarters of FY16 it has improved from 27.8% in Q1FY16, 28.3% in Q2FY16 to 29.4% in Q3FY16. However, the major part of capital formation appears to be driven by execution of stalled projects. The quarterly average of stalled projects reduced from Rs.1.7 trillion in FY14 to Rs.1.2 trillion in FY15 and further to Rs.0.65 trillion in 9MFY16, thus indicating lean materialization of new investment announcements. Growth in the electrical equipment industry: The domestic electrical equipment industry, indicative of order inflow (in volume) for downstream electric equipment manufacturers, registered a marginal growth of 0.05% y-o-y in H1FY16, after registering a 9.95% y-o-y growth in FY15. The growth in the ECG industry would now be led by new project announcement and its materialization as the level of stalled projects has come down significantly. A declining interest rate trajectory, favorable policy changes such as ban of duty-free import of capital goods for power transmission and distribution projects and increased focus of the government on infrastructure such as opening up of foreign direct investments across various sectors may act as catalysts. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact Excise Duty (%) Before After Impact Construction equipment 7.5% 7.5% Construction equipment 12.5% 12.5% Textile machinery 7.5% 7.5% Textile machinery 12.5% 12.5% Stamping and lamination 7.5% 7.5% Stamping and lamination 12.5% 12.5% Copper winding wire 7.5% 7.5% = = = = Copper winding wire 12.5% 12.5% = = = = 12.5% 12.5% = 12.5% 12.5% = Power generation equipment such as boilers and turbines 7.5% 10% + Power generation equipment such as boilers and turbines Motors 7.5% 10% + Motors 33 Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • 100% village electrification by May 1, 2018, with Rs.8,500 • Budgetary allocation for FY 2015-16 under DDGJY was Rs.4,500 crore, which has doubled for FY2016-17. This crore provided for Deendayal Upadhayaya Gram Jyoti Yojna would result in increased demand for power transmission (DDGJY) and distribution equipment • Mobilization of additional finances upto Rs.31,300 crore by NHAI, PFC, REC, IREDA, NABARD and Inland Water • This could help mobilize much needed long-term funds for the associated sectors such as roads and power, which could Authority through bonds translate in order inflows for equipment manufacturers • Total investment in the road sector of Rs.97,000 crore • Total investment in railway infrastructure of Rs.1.21 lakh • Investment in the road sector proposed for FY 2016-17 is higher than the investment proposed for the sector crore for FY 2015-16 of Rs.52,918 crore. Increased investment • 100% FDI through FIPB route in marketing of food products in the sector would result in more order inflow for road manufactured in India. construction equipment manufacturers. • Investment in railway infrastructure proposed for FY 2016-17 is higher than the investment of Rs.1 lakh crore announced for FY 2015-16. This would translate in orders for railway equipment manufacturers. • This is likely to boost the demand for food processing machinery Impact on Companies Company ABB India Ltd. Impact Action Construction Equipment Ltd. = = Alstom India Ltd. = Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. = EimcoElecon (India) Ltd. = = = = = = = = = = = = = Elecon Engineering Company Ltd. Engineers India Ltd. Kalpataru Power Transmission Ltd. KEC International Ltd. Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Shanti Gears Ltd. Siemens Ltd. Sterlite Technologies Ltd. Texmaco Rail & Engineering Ltd. Thermax Ltd. TRF Ltd. Voltamp Transformers Ltd. Comments Stable Investment in road infrastructure could see improved demand for construction equipment Investment in railway infrastructure could see improve demand for railway equipment and service provider Government’s thrust on increase of power generation and transmission could see new order inflows for power equipment. Also, increase in customs duty on boilers and turbines is likely to protect the interest of domestic equipment manufacturers. Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Focus on capacity building and infrastructure could see higher order flow Stable Stable Thrust on rural electrification could see higher demand for cables Growth in annual freight carrying capacity could translate into increased order flow for rolling stock Stable Stable Focus on rural electrification could see higher demand for distribution transformers 34 Fertilizers Industry Snapshot: Domestic fertilizer sales volume increased by 5.37% y-o-y in FY15 to 54.37 million metric tonnes (MMT) driven by healthy growth in demand of P&K fertilizers by 11.22%, while the urea consumption largely remained stable at 30.88 MMT. During 10MFY16, the total fertilizer sales volume increased by 6.65% y-o-y to 47.82 MMT due to increase in the sales volume of P&K fertilizers by 9.36% (20.92 MMT) and of urea by 4.64% (26.90 MMT) due to improvement in demand scenario. Policy moves such as ‘gas price pooling’ and ‘new urea policy 2015’ augured well for the urea segment of fertilizer industry which coupled with reduced gas price is expected to result in reduction in subsidy bill for FY16. However, the reduced international prices of some of the P&K fertilizers resulted in increase in imports in current financial year as the raw material prices have not softened to that extent. Overall, the fertilizer subsidy budget of Rs.72,968 crore for FY16 would continue to fall short against the total outlay mainly due to large arrears of previous year. The key challenges faced by fertilizer industry are inadequate subsidy budget leading to delays in subsidy payments, skewed usage of nitrogen nutrient (urea) and high dependence on imported raw materials. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact Urea 5% 5% DAP 5% 5% MOP 5% 5% Ammonia 5% 5% Phosphoric Acid 5% 5% Sulphur 2.5% 2.5% Rock Phosphate 2.5% 2.5% = = = = = = = Excise Duty (%) Before After Impact Urea 12.50% 12.50% DAP 12.50% 12.50% MOP 12.50% 12.50% Ammonia 12.50% 12.50% Phosphoric Acid 12.50% 12.50% Sulphur 12.50% 12.50% Rock Phosphate 12.50% 12.50% = = = = = = = DAP: Di-ammonium phosphate; MOP: Muriate of potash Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Overall fertilizer subsidy budget reduced by Rs.2,968 crore y-o-y to Rs.70,000 crore. Within overall budget, subsidy for urea as a whole increased by Rs.500 crore to Rs.51,000 crore, while for other fertilizers, subsidy reduced by Rs.3,468 crore to Rs.19,000 crore. • Soil health card scheme with target to cover all 14 crore farm holdings by March 2017 and to provide soil and seed testing facilities to 2,000 model retail outlets of fertilizer companies during next 3 years. • Promote organic farming through ‘Parmparagat Krishi Vikas Yojna’ and ‘Organic Value Chain Development in North East region’. • Improved access to irrigation through ‘Pradhanmantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana’ with additional 28.5 lakh hectares to be covered under irrigation. Fast tracking of 89 irrigation projects under Accelerated Irrigation Benefits Programme (AIBP), which have been languishing, with target to complete at least 23 of these projects before March 31, 2017. Launching of dedicated long-term irrigation fund in NABARD with an initial corpus of Rs.20,000 crore. • Fertilizer subsidy budget over the past few years have fallen short of the actual requirements. This is expected to continue in FY17 also mainly due to large subsidy arrears of the previous years. • Move towards improving the soil fertility and productivity and balance usage of nutrients would lead use of complex fertilizers to suit soil needs rather than excess use of low cost urea. • Move is expected to encourage fertilizer players to introduce organic fertilizers in their product portfolio which would also aid in improving soil fertility further. • The move is expected to reduce dependence on monsoon and would entail stable demand for fertilizers. • Fertilizer demand would get a fillip on account of easier credit availability and may also encourage farmers to use complex fertilizers. 35 • Enhanced credit to the farm sector through agriculture credit outlay of Rs.900,000 crore, increased by Rs.50,000 crore from previous year and provision of Rs.15,000 crore for interest subvention for agricultural loans. Impact on Companies Company Impact Comments Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative Ltd = = = = Marginal reduction in subsidy allocation to fertilizer subsidy budget would continue to result in mismatch between subsidy requirement and allocation. Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd Rasthriya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd = The move towards reducing the skewed usage of nitrogen nutrient (urea) and soil productivity would lead to increase in agriculture yield and also to increase in demand of non-urea (P&K) fertilizers. The move towards promoting organic farming would encourage fertilizer companies to introduce organic fertilizers in their product portfolio. The easier farm credit would also encourage farmers for balanced usage of fertilizers. Improved access to irrigation would lead to reduced dependence on monsoon and stabilize demand of fertilizers. 36 FMCG Industry Snapshot: The size of the Indian FMCG industry estimated to be at around $47 billion in 2015. Most of the FMCG companies in past 2 years witnessed a subdued volume growth on account of subdued economic growth. However, the medium to long-term prospects for the industry remains healthy on the back of favourable demographic profile, rising disposable income with improvement in GDP growth rate and expected growth from rural demand with rising penetration in these areas. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact Excise Duty (%) Before After Impact Fatty acids/crude palm stearin and specified industrial grade crude oil used for manufacturing of soaps. 0 0 = Mineral water and aerated waters containing added sugar. 18 21 - Crude glycerin for manufacturing of soaps. 0 0 = Non-filter cigarettes (not exceeding 65 mm). 1,280 (Rs./ 1,000 sticks) 1,495 (Rs./ 1000 sticks) - Non-filter cigarettes (exceeding 65 mm but not exceeding 70 mm) 2,335 (Rs./ 1,000 sticks) 2,705 (Rs./ 1000 sticks) - Filter cigarettes (not exceeding 65 mm) 1,280 (Rs./ 1,000 sticks 1,495 (Rs./ 1,000 Sticks - Filter cigarettes (exceeding 65 mm but not 70 mm) 1,740 (Rs./ 1,000 sticks) 2,000 (Rs./ 1000 sticks) - Filter cigarettes (exceeding 70 mm but not 75 mm) 2335 (Rs./ 1,000 sticks) 2,705 (Rs./ 1,000 sticks) - Other cigarettes 3,375 (Rs./ 1,000 sticks) 3,935 (Rs./ 1,000 sticks) - Excise duty on cut tobacco Rs.70 per kg Rs.70 per kg - 37 Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Increase in excise duties on cigarettes, tobacco. • Hike in excise duty if passed on to the end consumers could marginally impact demand for cigarettes and other tobacco products • Increase in excise duty on mineral water and • Increase in excise duty would lead to marginal decline in demand aerated water containing added sugar for these products. Impact on Companies Company ITC Ltd, Godfrey Philips India Ltd, VST Industries Ltd Impact Comments - Hike in excise duty would lead to decline in the volume growth for these products and may negatively impact margins as the hike may not be fully passed on to the end users. 38 Gems & Jewellery Industry Snapshot: India is the largest diamond processor in the world and occupies a leading position as manufacturer of gold ornaments. A predominant portion of gold jewellery manufactured in India was meant for domestic consumption. However, cut and polished diamonds (CPD) and diamond jewellery segment is largely export-oriented and has been a major contributor to the country’s Foreign Exchange Earnings (FEEs). India was the second-largest consumer of gold in the world during CY15, even after muted H1CY15, on the back of good festival and wedding-related demand in Q4CY15. India’s gems and jewellery (G&J) exports has declined mainly due to a slowdown in demand from China. During 9MFY16, the total export of gems and jewellery (G&J) industry reduced by approximately 14% to USD 23.29 billion, compared with USD 27.15 billion during 9MFY15. Indian diamond processors have also reduced import of rough diamonds in commensuration with global demand. • Indian consumer demand for gold remained largely undeterred by challenging macro-economic environment and domestic conditions, especially extreme weather conditions and squeeze on rural incomes. The demand for gold jewellery in India increased by 5% to 654.30 tonnes during CY15, while investment demand decreased by 6% to 194.60 tonnes during CY15. There has been notable change in India’s bullion market and gold refining segment. Refining capacity in India doubled from 750 tonnes per annum (TPA) during CY14 and is currently estimated at 1,500 tonnes per annum (TPA) and gold dore bars accounted for 25% of gross official bullion imports in Q4CY15, compared with just 3% in Q1CY14. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact Excise Duty (%) Before After Impact Imitation jewellery 10.00 15.00 + Articles of Jewellery [excluding articles of silver jewellery, other than those studded with diamonds, ruby, emerald or sapphire] 0.00 1.00 - Semi-processed, half cut or broken diamonds 2.50 2.50 = Gold Bars manufactured from gold ore or concentrate 9.00 9.50 - Cut and polished diamonds and coloured gemstones 2.50 2.50 = Silver manufactured from silver ore or concentrate 8.00 8.50 - Gold and Silver 10.00 10.00 Gold and Silver Jewellery 15.00 15.00 = = Impact on Companies Company Asian Star Company Limited P. N. Gadgil Jewellers Private Limited PC Jeweller Limited Khazana Jewellery Private Limited Impact Comments = - • The domestic imitation jewellery sector received an impetus from the government as import of imitation jewellery will become more expensive. • The cost of jewellery will go up due to levy of excise duty and it will become more expensive 39 Hospitals & Healthcare Industry Snapshot: The Indian healthcare industry is estimated to cross Rs.5,000 billion by FY17 (refers to the period April 01 to March 31). The Hospital and Health services segment is its largest component, comprising 70% of the industry and is expected to continue to dominate the industry. With 69.5% of the total expenditure on health being funded through private means in CY11 (Source: WHO), it is likely to remain the single-biggest determinant of healthcare spending in the near-future. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Disposable sterilized dialyzer and micro barrier of artificial kidney 7.5 NIL Impact Excise Duty (%) Before After Impact + Disposable sterilized dialyzer and micro barrier of artificial kidney 12.5 NIL + Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • The Government to launch a new health protection scheme which will provide health cover upto Rs.1 lakh per family. • The governments focus on improving social sector including healthcare • For senior citizens, additional top up package is reflected from the announcements. This will also improve health insurance penetration. of Rs.30,000/-. • “National Dialysis Services” programme to • More dialysis centers (renal dialysis) through PPP model and certain be started under National Health Mission indirect tax benefits to address high costs involved in dialysis processes. through PPP Model to be provided in all district hospitals and certain dialysis equipment proposed to exempt from basic customs duty, excise/ CVD and SAD. Impact on Companies Company Apollo Hospital Enterprise Ltd Fortis Healthcare Ltd Impact = = Comments No specific comments for private sector hospitals. 40 IT & ITeS Industry Snapshot: The Indian IT-BPM industry in aggregate is estimated at USD 146 billion in FY15, export segment of which is estimated at USD 98.5 billion, according to NASSCOM. IT Services exports are expected to grow at a moderate pace of 12-14% in FY16. The nominal growth expectation is attributable to mixed set of economic data from the western markets which account for about 80% of the income of Indian IT exporters and currency headwinds. While U.S. economy has recorded notable recovery, economic fluctuation in Europe has been a cause of concern. The domestic IT services market meanwhile is approaching USD 50 billion according to NASSCOM driven by growing e-commerce, under penetrated market in SMEs and government’s spending in e-governance projects. Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Benefits of Section 10AA to new SEZ units available for units which commence activity before March 31, 2020. • For IT companies, expansion and hence growth coming from SEZ by setting up delivery units in SEZ, which provide tax benefits on profits, could help save tax. The effective tax rate is expected to continue to remain lower than the statutory corporate tax rate. • 100% deduction on profits for 3 out of 5 years for • Most start-ups suffer losses in initial years. Hence, the move for 100% tax deduction on initial years’ profits may not be of any major start-ups setup during April 2016 to March 2019. significance. As such MAT will apply. Impact on Companies Company TCS Infosys HCL Infosystem Wipro Tech Mahindra Impact Comments = = = = = Effective tax rates paid by these large IT companies have remained well below the statutory tax rates benefiting from tax incentives on operations at SEZ locations. With the tax benefits being extended for new units commencing activity in SEZ till March 2020, IT companies stands to benefit from lower tax outflow. 41 Media and Entertainment Industry Snapshot: The Indian media and entertainment industry estimated to be at Rs.1,026 bn witnessed an overall growth of 11.76% in CY2014 (period from January to December 2014). Of the total market size, the share of television and print media continued to garner highest share of 46.3% and 25.67% respectively, during CY2014. Other segments such as gaming and digital advertising animation & visual effects (VFX), albeit at nascent stage of growth, continued to exhibit strong growth rates. Given the stimulus provided by the rollout of phase one & two of cable digital access system (DAS) and continued phase three rollout, the television segment is poised to exhibit strong growth. Besides, with continued growth of gaming and digital advertising media, strength in the film sector and the emergence of E-commerce as a significant new category, the industry is slated to grow at a healthy rate in the near term. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Basic customs duty on parts and components, subparts for manufacture of Set-top boxes for gaining access to internet and Set top boxes for TV, digital video recorder (DVR) and network video recorder (NVR) Before 10% After Nil Impact + Excise Duty (%) Central Excise Duty on Set-top boxes for gaining access to internet and Set top boxes for TV, digital video recorder (DVR) and network video recorder (NVR) Central Excise Duty on parts and components, subparts for manufacture of Settop boxes for gaining access to internet, set top boxes for TV, digital video recorder (DVR) and network video recorder (NVR) Before After Impact 12.5% [with 12.5% CENVAT credit] = 12.5% + Nil Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • The exemption of customs duty on parts and components would • Exemption of Customs Duty for parts and reduce the cost for domestic manufacturers and encourage the components, subparts for manufacture of set top assembling of set top boxes by players who essentially import them. boxes • Exemption of central excise duty on parts and • The exemption of central excise duty on parts and components components, subparts for manufacture of Set-top of set top boxes will augur well for Media and Entertainment boxes for gaining access to internet and set top companies, who are into manufacturing of set top boxes. boxes for TV Impact on Companies Company Videocon d2h Impact Comments + Videocon d2h would benefit from the exemption of customs and central excise duty on parts and components of set top boxes, as it would reduce its input costs. 42 Mining and Minerals Industry Snapshot: The mining and metallurgical sector remains vital for the development and economic growth of the developing countries and India remains geologically endowed with a number of mineral resources. Currently, In-metallic dia produces around 87 minerals, which includes fuel minerals, metallic minerals, non-minerals, atomic minerals and minor minerals. In India, the mining sector is dominated by coal comprising around 80% of the mined reserve, while the balance 20% comprises various other minerals which includes copper, iron, lead, bauxite, zinc, gold, uranium, etc. Although the country is more or less self-reliant with respect to a number of minerals, a significant gap exists with regards to a large number of critical minerals and metals such as coal, uranium, copper ore, etc, for which the country is partly or largely dependent on imports. Various inefficiencies in the sector including policy lacuna, political interference, stringent government regulations, environmental issues, lack of infrastructure and financing mechanism have hampered the growth of the sector. Accordingly, the share of Indian mining and quarrying sector has been low around 2% of Indian GDP vis-àvis other mining nations having been around 5-6% of its GDP. It is estimated that every 1% increment in the growth rate of mining and quarrying results in 1.2-1.4% increment in the growth rate of industrial production and correspondingly, an approximate increment of 0.3% in the growth rate of India’s GDP. In January 2015, the Government of India issued MMDR ordinance which supersedes the MMDR Act, 1957. The act mandated the setting up of District Mineral Foundations (DMFs) and launched programs meant to provide for the welfare of areas and people affected by mining-related operations, thus bringing reforms in the sector and thrust on fast-tracking projects. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact + + + + Iron Ore lumps (below 58% Fe content) [2601 11 21 and 2601 11 22] 30% Nil Iron Ore lumps (below 58% Fe content) [2601 11 41 and 2601 11 42] 10% Nil Bauxite (natural) 20% 15% Chrome ores and concentrates 30% Nil Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • Neutral–The increase in the clean energy cess is passed on to the • The schedule rate of clean energy cess, levied on end-user industry. Hence, the impact of increase stands neutral on coal, lignite and peat, is being increased from Rs.200 the industry. per tonne to Rs.400 per tonne which will come into effect immediately. The clean energy cess is also • Positive – This move will help the exporters to stay competitive as renamed as clean environment cess. globally the iron-ore prices have fallen by close to 40% and in case of • Propose to scrap export duty on low grade iron ore. lower grades (below 58% Fe content) to a decade low. Impact on Companies Company NDMC Ltd Vedanta Ltd OMDC Ltd MOIL Ltd Impact = = = = Comments The increase in the clean energy cess for the domestic miners is passed on to the end-user industry. Hence, the overall impact of increase stands neutral. 43 Non-ferrous Metals Industry Snapshot: • The base metal industry is bearing the brunt of the downward revision in global macroeconomic outlook. Muted industrial activity along with sluggish demand outlook from the developing economies, persisting concerns of the slowing Chinese economy and cheap imports are exerting pressure on the overall demand and subsequently the prices of these metals. However, the changing socio-economic conditions and expected recovery of demand from the developed markets are likely to stabilize the demand for these metals in the medium term. • CARE expects prices of all base-metals to remain volatile on the back of the ongoing macroeconomic development in the Euro zone and other major developing countries. Chinese economic outlook and the strengthening of the US dollar vis-à-vis the other major currencies in the world is also likely to have its effect on the global base metal prices. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact Bauxite 20 15 Aluminium Scrap 5 5 Alumina 5 5 7.5 7.5 5 7.5 2.5 2.5 Copper scrap 5 5 Refined copper 5 5 2.5 2.5 5 7.5 2.5 2.5 5 5 Steam Coal 2.5 2.5 Petroleum Coke 2.5 2.5 Calcined Petroleum Coke 2.5 2.5 Other Aluminium Products 7.5 10 + = = = + = = = = + = = = = = + Caustic Soda Aluminium Ingots Copper Concentrates Zinc Concentrates Refined Zinc Lead Concentrates Refined Lead Excise Duty (%) Before After Impact Alumina 12 12 Caustic Soda 12 12 Aluminium Ingots 12 12 Copper Concentrates 12 12 Refined Copper 12 12 Zinc Concentrates 12 12 Refined Zinc 12 12 Lead Concentrates 12 12 Refined Lead 12 12 Non-coking Coal 12 12 Petroleum Coke 12 12 Calcined Petroleum Coke 12 12 = = = = = = = = = = = = Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Negative- This is likely to further increase the cost of production • Increase in Clean Energy cess levied on coal, lignite of the Non-ferrous metals producer. and peat from Rs.200 per tonne to Rs.400 per tonne • Positive- This is likely to make the imports dearer and help the • Increase in custom duty of non-ferrous metals domestic players 44 Impact on Companies Company Impact Comments Hindalco Industries Ltd = = National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO) = Since, power cost accounts for a significant share of the overall cost of production for non-ferrous metals, increase in the cost of coal used by captive power plants on account of increase in freight rate and Clean Environment Cess is likely to increase the cost of production of these players. Hindustan Zinc Ltd However, these companies will get some leeway in increasing prices of their products with the hike in customs duty of imported metals. 45 Oil and Gas Industry Snapshot: Oil and gas industry globally is divided into three major sectors viz (1) Upstream (involves exploring and production of crude oil) (2) Midstream (stores oil, gas and refined products as well as transports them to refineries) and (3) Downstream (includes all refineries and petrochemical plants which converts the crude oil into various petroleum products). India depends on imports for more than 80 per cent of its domestic crude oil needs. Duty Structure Basic Cenvat Duty (%) Product Special Additional Duty Additional Excise Duty Before After Impact Before After Impact Before After Impact Rs.4500 / MT cess+ Rs.50/ MT 20% ad valorem + NIL - - NIL - - Motor Spirit Rs.9.48 to Rs.10.66 /ltr - - Rs.6.00/ltr - - Rs.6.00/ ltr. - - High Speed Diesel Rs.11.33 to Rs.13.69/ Ltr - - NIL - - Rs.6.00/ ltr. - - Crude Petroleum LPG 8% Liquefied Natural Gas NIL Kerosene 14% NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • OIDB Cess reduced from Rs.4,500 per tonne to 20% • Much awaited demand from industry players in light of low crude ad valorem prices • The exemptions from customs duties on specified • This shall make cost of exploration cheaper for upstream goods imported for petroleum exploration companies, especially at times when crude prices are at all-time low • Incentivise gas production from deep-water/ultra • In favor of upstream companies, as such sites bear higher cost of deep-water areas exploration and lower probability of reserves than off-shore fields • Shall affect performance of exploration companies as current • Withdrawal of deduction u/s 80-IB of Income-tax Act output prices are historically low and cost of exploration remains for production of mineral oil and natural gas high Impact on Companies Company GAIL Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation Limited Indian Oil Corporation Ltd Indraprastha Gas Limited Oil India Ltd Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd Impact + + + + + + Comments Reduction in OIDB Cess, exemption in customs duties for import of capital goods and incentivise gas production shall help the struggling oil & gas sector to rationalize cost of production and encourage public and private investments in new projects. However, withdrawal of deduction u/s 80-IB shall hit profits of exploration companies. 46 Paper Industry Snapshot: The Indian Paper Industry has three segments: Packaging paper and boards, Printing and Writing, and Newsprint. The growth in the Indian paper industry is largely dependent on the rate of growth of the economy as well as growing literacy rate and the government thrust on education-for-all. The Indian Paper Industry is highly fragmented and competitive in nature. Large paper manufacturers have established their dominance in high-value segments like copier, coated packaging & board, while smaller units cater to low value segments such as creamwove, kraft paper etc. Raw-material, energy and stores and spares (including chemicals) forms about 75-80% of the total operating costs for the paper industry. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact Finished products Excise Duty (%) Before After 6%12.5% 6%12.5% Impact Finished products Paper & Paperboard - Basic - CVD 10% 12% 10% 12% = Paper & Paperboard Newsprint - Basic - CVD 10% 0% 10% 0% = Newsprint Nil Nil Wood pulp 6% 6% Raw materials Wood in chips/particles - Basic 5% 0% + Wood pulp - Basic - CVD 5% 6% 5% 6% = Wastepaper - Basic - CVD 10% 12% 10% 12% = = = = Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Basic customs duty on wood in chips or particles for manufacture of paper, paperboard and news print has been reduced from 5% to Nil. • The industry has suffered in the last 2-3 years on account of scarce wood availability and its increasing prices. The scarcity of wood had resulted in large imports of wood logs and wood chips. Relief in the custom duty of wood chips/particles would have a positive impact on the profitability of the wood based paper and paperboard producing companies. 47 Impact on Companies Company Impact Comments International Paper APPM Ltd + + + = Tamil Nadu Newsprint Papers Limited (TNPL) = The impact of the budget proposal of nil custom duty on imports of wood chips/particles would give some relief to the wood-based paper manufacturers. Companies like West Coast Paper Mills, JK Paper etc would get benefitted as these companies had started importing wood chips/ logs in the last 2-3 years to supplement raw material availability. However, International Paper APPM Ltd relies on wood procured from domestic market and farm forestry programmes. Also, TNPL uses both bagasse and hardwood as raw material and a major part of the hardwood is procured from Tamil Nadu Forest Plantation Corporation Limited as well as contract farming/ farm forestry. Therefore, impact of custom duty change on the latter companies is expected to be neutral. Further, the paper sector has a large number of agro based and waste paper based paper manufacturers. The budget proposals pertaining to import duty on wood chips would not have any impact on these industry players. West Coast Paper Mills Ltd J K Paper Ltd Ballarpur Industries and Besides, the industry has been witnessing cheaper imports in some segments of paper and paper products under the Free Trade Agreements. However, no changes in the duty structure on imports of finished products have been announced in this budget, thereby impact would be neutral. On the whole, while some wood-based paper producing companies would be benefitted, the impact on the other segments of the industry based on waste paper and agro produce would remain neutral. 48 Petrochemicals Industry Snapshot: Petrochemicals are downstream hydrocarbons derived from crude oil and natural gas. The petrochemical industry is primarily divided into basic products including olefins, ethane, propane, aromatic compounds (such as benzene, toluene), intermediate petrochemicals, end products, polymers, synthetic fibres and synthetic rubber. The industry is the main stay of industrial and agricultural development of the country and provides building blocks for several downstream industries, such as textiles, papers, paints, soaps, detergents, pharmaceuticals, etc. Duty Structure Product Hydrocarbons Orthoxylene Electrolysers/membranes Basic Cenvat Duty (%) Special Additional Duty Before After Impact Before After 5% 2.5% - - - - 4% 2% 2.5% NIL + + - - Additional Excise Duty Impact Before After Impact + - - - - Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • Reduction in excise/special duty rates • To bring down production costs Impact on Companies Company Bhansali Engineering Polymers Limited Finolex Industries Limited Indian Petrochemicals Corporation Limited Oricon Enterprises Limited Impact Comments + + + + Reduction in duty rates shall bring down costs and enable industry players to improve profitability 49 Marginaly Pharmaceuticals Industry Snapshot: The Indian Pharmaceutical Industry (IPI) is ranked third globally in terms of volume, and thirteenth in terms of value. The lower market share in terms of value can be attributed to the predominance of generic medicines which command lower prices. As per estimates, the industry size is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% from INR 1,406 billion in 2013 to INR 2,872 billion by 2018 given the huge export potential coupled with steady growth in the domestic formulation market. Growth in the domestic pharma market is expected to be driven by increase in the penetration of health insurance, improving access to healthcare facilities, rising prevalence of chronic diseases and rising per capita income. The export growth is expected to be led by increasing generic penetration in the regulated markets on the back of patent expiries and growing demand from semi-regulated pharma markets. In the long term, growth in the exports market will be sustained by emerging markets such as Russia, Brazil, South Africa, etc, along with the enhanced focus on the niche and complex product segments. Duty Structure Excise Duty (%) Before After Impact Finished products API Formulation 12.5 12.5 6 6 = = Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • Weighted deductions for R&D proposed to be revised • This will serve as a big impediment for the companies involved to 150% from April 1, 2017 and 100% from April 1, in the new drug development, which generally involves huge R&D 2020. expense. Indian pharma companies’ R&D expense as a percentage of sales is already one-fifth as compared with the pharma majors in the regulated destinations, reduction of R&D deductions will discourage companies to invest further and slow down the research activities. • Tax rebate of 10% on earnings from global patent • These initiatives marginally off-set the set back of reduced filings. deduction of R&D. However, this is likely to benefit few pharma • Tax rate of 10% (as against 35%) on income from majors who have ability to compete on global level. worldwide exploitation of patents developed and registered in India. Impact on Companies Company Cipla Ltd Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd Impact Comments - With reduction in tax deductions, it is likely to have marginally negative impact on the pharma companies. 50 Pipes Industry Snapshot: The Indian pipe industry is one of the top manufacturing hubs globally with presence across all categories of pipes, viz, steel, cement and plastic. Due to economic slowdown in domestic as well as global markets during last few years, demand for pipes has remained moderate. However, CARE expects that the demand for pipes in India would remain healthy in the long term, on the back of increasing demand arising from oil and gas, infrastructure, irrigation, water supply and sanitation projects. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact Steel pipes 15 15 Plastic pipes 10 10 Cement pipes 10 10 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) 10 10 High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) 10 10 = = = = = Excise Duty (%) Before After Impact Steel pipes 12.5 12.5 Plastic pipes 12.5 12.5 Cement pipes 12.5 12.5 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) 12.5 12.5 High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) 12.5 12.5 = = = = = Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Swachh Bharat Mission is India’s biggest drive to improve sanitation and cleanliness, especially in rural India. Rs.9,000 crore has been provided for the same. • Only 46% of area under cultivation in India is irrigated. With Government of India (GoI) focusing on agricultural productivity, increasing the area of cultivated land under irrigation is of vital importance and these initiatives will improve the long term demand for plastic pipes. • Finance minister has allocated Rs.5,717 crore via “Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY)” scheme to • Furthermore, with impetus given for affordable housing and support micro-irrigation and watershed development sanitation, the demand for cement and plastic pipes should in the country with a view to increase agricultural witness an increase in the long term. productivity. 28.5 lakh hectares will be brought under irrigation during the year FY16. • Rs.25,000 crore allocated to Rural Infrastructure Development Fund. • Implementation of 89 irrigation projects under Accelerated Irrigation Benefits Programme (AIBP) to be fast tracked. These projects require around Rs.86,500 crore in next 5 years. Furthermore, a dedicated long-term Irrigation Fund will be created in NABARD with initial corpus of about Rs.20,000 crore. 51 Impact on Companies Company Indian Hume Pipe Co. Ltd. Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd. Finolex Industries Ltd. Impact Comments + The company primarily operates in cement pipes. Proposal in the budget to provide sanitation facility to every household by the year 2022 is expected toincrease the demand for cement pipes. + Jain Irrigation Systems is engaged in manufacturing of micro irrigation systems, PVC pipes, HDPE pipes and other agricultural inputs. The finance minister’s proposals to boost investments in irrigation via various schemes like PMKSY, will create demand for its plastic pipes and other irrigation systems. + Finolex Industries is involved in production of PVC resin and PVC Pipes. The proposal to ensure housing for all and irrigation segment is likely to boost demand for PVC pipes. 52 Ports Industry Snapshot: India has 7,517-km long coastline with 13 major ports and 187 non major ports, which handle around 90% of India’s total international trade in terms of volume and 70% in terms of value. The total volume of traffic handled by all the major Indian ports during FY15 (refers to the period April 1 to March 31) was about 581 million tonnes as compared with about 555 million tonnes handled in FY14, a Y-o-Y growth of about 5%. • The key challenges faced by the sector are full utilization of capacities at the major ports, draft constraints and operating inefficiencies. On the other hand, development of new minor ports have been affected by inadequate connectivity with the hinterland, the absence of multi-modal connectivity to and from ports and the differential royalties and revenue sharing among ports. • As a result of allowance of the 100% FDI in the port sector, the port privatization has gained momentum. While in the past, most of the private initiatives in ports was restricted to development of container terminals, the past couple of years have witnessed significant investment in the minor ports, dominated by bulk capacities added in Gujarat and the eastern coast, predominantly through PPP projects. • The Planning Commission has estimated the total traffic growth at about 14% during the 12th Five Year Plan (2012 to 2017). However, given the plethora of issues surrounding the projects in the power, steel and coal sectors coupled with the slowdown in overall economic growth, CARE expects the total annual traffic at all ports to grow at a CAGR (Cumulative Annual Growth Rate) of 6.2% and reach a level of 1,182 million tonnes by FY17. Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Implementation of Customs Single Window project starting from the beginning of the next financial year. • Allocation of a corpus of Rs.800 crore to develop new greenfield ports and inland waterways. • Both the proposals are likely to have a marginal positive impact on the ports sectors. While the implementation of Single window project is likely to fast track the project implementation process, the additional corpus of Rs.800 crore is likely to provide support to the greenfield projects/development of inland waterways. Impact on Companies Company Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd Impact Comments = = The implementation of customs single window project is likely to marginally benefit the existing players. 53 Power Industry Snapshot: The all-India installed capacity on December 31, 2015 was 284.3 Giga-Watts (GW). In FY14, the base power deficit was 4.2%, which declined to 3.6% in FY15, while peak deficit increased from 4.5% in FY14 to 4.7% in FY15. During 9MFY16, base deficit has declined to 2.2% and peak power deficit to 3.2%. The sector is still plagued by weak health of power distribution companies, fuel-related issues and transmission constraints. Encouraging policy framework in the renewable energy (RE) sector has resulted in rising share of RE capacity from 5.9% (7.7 GW) in FY2007 to 13.2% (37.4 GW) as on December 31, 2015. In 9MFY16, RE capacity addition was 3 GW compared to 2.1 GW in 9MFY15. The government has set a target of augmenting the renewable power capacity to 175 GW (including solar capacity of 100 GW) by 2022 Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Clean Energy Cess on Coal (Rs./tonne) Before Rs.200 After Rs.400 Impact + (For renewable power sector) Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • The Government plans to achieve 100% village electrification by May 01, 2018 and Rs.8,500 crore has been provided for Deendayal Upadhayaya Gram Jyoti Yojna and Integrated Power Development Schemes. • Apart from renewable sector capacity addition targets which have been set-down earlier, the Government • These initiatives will have marginal positive impact on the is drawing up a comprehensive plan to augment the sector. investment in nuclear power generation and has proposed budgetary allocation up to Rs.3,000 crore per annum. This will help in boosting nuclear power capacity. • Plant & machinery acquired and installed for transmission activity would also be eligible for additional depreciation (at the rate of 20%) under section 32(1)(iia) of the Incometax act. • The funds accumulated would help in augmenting capacity addition in the renewable energy sector as per the government’s laid out plans. While the increased cost will be • Clean Energy Cess (renamed as Clean Environment Cess) on pass-through for the thermal power generation companies coal, lignite and peat increased from Rs.200 per tonne to having fuel cost pass-through clauses, the input cost would Rs.400 per tonne. increase for the companies having fixed price PPAs. • With the increased cost of thermal power, difference in cost of generation with renewable sources of energy will decrease. • No deduction shall be available under sector 80IA with effect from 1.4.2017. • The accelerated depreciation provided under IT Act will be limited to maximum 40% from 1.4.2017 as against present rate of 80% (applicable for renewable power projects) which was valid till March 31, 2017. • While the same will result in higher tax outgo as compared to the present regime, the same corroborates with government’s clear road map of phasing out of various tax exemptions/benefits. 54 Impact on Companies Company Various Power IPPs (such as Tata Power Ltd., NTPC Ltd etc.) Impact = Comments While the increased cost of power due to increase in cess on coal will be passthrough for the thermal power generation companies having fuel cost pass-through clauses, the input cost would increase for the companies having fixed price PPAs. With the increased cost of thermal power difference in cost of generation with renewables will reduce. Tax benefit under 80IA will not be available for the sector and also accelerated depreciation benefit will be reduced for the renewable power projects with effect from 1.4.2017. 55 Real Estate Industry Snapshot: The Indian real estate industry is the second-largest employment-generating sector after agriculture, contributing about 5-6% to India’s GDP. Not only does it generate a high level of direct employment, but it also stimulates the demand in over 250 ancillary industries such as cement, steel, paint, brick, building materials, consumer durables etc. The sector has been witnessing demand slowdown due to high inflation, higher borrowing cost and weak economic sentiments affecting buyer’s confidence. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Steel Before After Impact 5 5 = Cement Excise Duty (%) Before After Impact 12 12 = - Retail 12*+ Rs.120/t 12*+ Rs.120/t = - Bulk 12# 12 = - Clinker 12 12 = 2% without input tax credit] / 6% [with input tax credit] [without input tax credit] / 6% [with input tax credit] Nil + Steel Cement OPC/PPC/PSC@ - Basic - CVD - Special CVD Nil 12 4 Nil 12 4 Clinker - Basic - CVD - Special CVD 10 12 4 10 12 4 = = Ready Mix Concrete *An abatement of 30% on Retail Sale price and is on ad valorem, # on ad valorem, @ OPC- Ordinary Portland cement, PPC- Portland pozzolana cement and PSC- Portland slag cement. Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • 100% deduction for profits to an undertaking in housing project for flats upto 30 sq. metres in four metro cities and 60 sq. metres in other cities, approved during June 2016 to March 2019 and completed in three years • Deduction for additional interest of Rs.50,000 per annum for loans up to Rs.35 lakh sanctioned in 2016-17 for first time home buyers, where house cost does not exceed Rs.50 lakh • Exemption from service tax on construction of affordable houses up to 60 square metres under any scheme of the Central or State Government including PPP Schemes • Distribution made out of income of SPV to the REITs having specified shareholding will not be subjected to Dividend Distribution Tax (DDT) • Extend excise duty exemption, presently available to Concrete Mix manufactured at site for use in construction work to Ready Mix Concrete (RMC) • The measures undertaken to promote affordable housing will positively impact the developers engaged in affordable housing development. Extension of excise duty exemption to RMC will reduce the overall cost of construction. Also, removal of DDT in case of REITs (which has been a demand from the industry) will help the companies with completed commercial properties to raise capital. 56 Impact on Companies Company DLF Ltd Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd Prestige Estates Projects Ltd Sobha Developers Ltd Kolte Patil Developers Ltd Godrej Properties Ltd Impact + + + = = = Comments Overall, companies with commercial property and affordable housing development focus will have a positive impact. 57 Roads and Highways Industry Snapshot: Indian Road network spans about 4.87 million km- 2nd largest in the world after USA with 6.58 million km. The government has taken various steps to revive the sector including premium rescheduling for stressed projects, bidding of tenders only after 80% land has been acquired for the project, fast track clearances of the projects, 100% exit for developers after two years of project completion both for pre-2009 and post-2009 projects and National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) funding for projects that are stuck in advance stages of completion. In addition, NHAI has also made few changes in the model concession agreement and has introduced hybrid annuity projects for Public Private Partnership (PPP) basis to enhance the attractiveness of the sector. The above measures along with increasing focus on Engineering Procurement and Construction (EPC) projects have led to the pace of construction of highways increasing to 18 km per day and government has set a target on 30 km per day by end of March 2016. The pace of execution of road projects has also improved as reflected by commencement of execution of around 80% of the stalled projects. Duty Structure Excise Duty (%) Before After Cement 12.50 12.50 Steel 12.50 12.50 Impact = = Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Key announcements • Increase in allocation from Rs.40,000 crore during last budget to Rs.55,000 crore for 2016-17. NHAI can also raise additional Rs.15,000 crore through bond issue for construction of roads. Total investment in the road sector including Pradhanmantri Gram Sadak Yojna (PMGSY) is envisaged at Rs.97,000 crore. Impact on the Industry • Continued thrust on development of the roads was reflected from the budget proposal with additional fiscal space proposed to be made available for funding infrastructure investment. The pace of award of the project is also expected to increase in the medium term. Effective resolution of disputes and proposed guidelines for negotiation of concession agreements are expected to • The Government plans to approve around 10,000 km of boost the execution of ongoing projects. National Highways in 2016-17. In addition around 50,000 km of State Highways shall be taken up for up gradation to • Enforcement of new credit rating system and expanding National Highways. investment basket of foreign portfolio investor to • Public Utility Bills for dispute resolution shall be introduced instruments issued by securitization of SPVs are expected in 2016-17. Guidelines for negotiations of Public Private to improve the availability of low cost funds for the Partnership (PPP) concession agreements are also expected developers and propel the development of bond market. to be issued in the coming year. • New credit rating system with various credit enhancement features is going to be introduced. Life Insurance Corporation of India will set up dedicated fund to provide credit enhancement to infrastructure projects. Investment basket of foreign portfolio investor will be expanded to include unlisted debt securities and pass through securities issued by securitization of special purpose vehicles (SPVs). 58 Impact on Companies Company IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Ltd ILF&S Transportation Networks Ltd GMR Infrastructure Ltd Gammon Infrastructure Projects Ltd Impact Comments + + + + + + The proposed increase in budgetary allocation and various measures taken by the Government to increase the pace of execution as well as developing bond market for infrastructure sector shall augur well for the infrastructure players having substantial exposure in roads sector projects. 59 Marginaly SEZ Industry Snapshot: In order to boost foreign investments, promote exports and to ensure global competitiveness for domestic companies, the Government of India had announced a policy on SEZ in April 2000 and SEZ Act 2005 came into effect in February 2006. Investment in SEZs declined during the last few years due to economic slowdown, land aggregation issues, withdrawal of sops [introduction of Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) and Dividend Distribution Tax (DDT)] and uncertainty with respect to policies. As on December 21, 2015, there are 412 formally approved SEZ of which 204 are operational in India (compared to 491 formally approved SEZs of which 196 operational as on January 21, 2015). Duty Structure MAT (%) Before After Impact SEZ Units 18.50% 18.50% Developers 18.50% 18.50% = = DDT(%) Before After Impact SEZ Units 20.00% 20.00% Developers 20.00% 20.00% = = Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry • The Finance Ministry has imposed a sunset clause for availing the benefits under Section 10AA of the Income Tax Act, 1961. As per the amendment no deduction shall be available to units commencing operation on or after April 01, Key schemes announced • Benefit of section 10AA to new SEZ units will be available 2020. to those units which commence activity before March 31, • As per the changes, the existing operational SEZ will not 2020. have any impact due to the phasing out of the incentive. However, companies failing to start operations before the March 31, 2020 would not derive any tax benefits in setting up these units. 60 Steel Industry Snapshot: India has become the third largest crude steel producer in 2015, with finished steel production of 91.46 MTPA. In the past decade (FY03-FY15), steel consumption in the domestic market has risen by CAGR of 8%. Consumption has been growing on the back of thriving and favourable demand from diverse sectors ranging from infrastructure, automobiles, construction, transportation, etc. However, over the past 1-2 years, steel industry had been reeling under the impact of slowdown in demand from the major end user industries, viz, real estate & construction on one hand and unabated imports on the other hand. Global overcapacity led to a fall in steel prices during 2014-15, while cheap import and lack of demand drivers within the country kept the domestic steel prices low. Government big ticket announcement on sectors like construction, infrastructure and automobiles is expected to improve the long-term outlook for steel. The Government of India is aiming to scale up steel production in the country to 300 MT by 2025 from 100 MT in 2014-15. This will be driven by the government’s on-going initiatives to clear infrastructural bottlenecks, introducing structural reforms in the mining sector and the expectation of a benign inflationary environment. Nevertheless, CARE expects steel prices to remain subdued in FY16 due to global weak steel pricing trend, increasing cheap imports and prevailing overcapacity within domestic producers. While marginal improvement in steel pricing is expected due to the implementation of Minimum Import Price (MIP). Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Increased outlay aggregating 2.21 lakh crore towards • Positive for steel companies which are currently reeling infrastructure including railways and road. under subdued end-user industry demand. • Clean environment cess on coal increased from Rs.200 per • Negative impact on domestic steel players which utilise coal tonne to Rs.400 per tonne to finance clean environmental for their captive power generation. initiatives. Impact on Companies Company Impact Steel Authority of India Ltd Tata Steel Ltd Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. JSW Ltd Usha Martin Ltd = Comments Increased outlay is likely to give much needed impetus to steel demand. Also, government thrust on Housing for all shall provide support to demand for long products. Rise in the clean environment cess on coal would have negative impact on steel players which are utilising coal for their captive power generation. 61 Telecom Services Industry Snapshot: India continued to have the second-largest wireless subscriber base globally with 1,009.46 million wireless subscribers as on November 30, 2015. The total telecom subscriber base also comprise of an additional 25.72 million wireline subscribers. The overall wireless tele-density was 79.78 as on same date with an urban wireless tele-density of 146.89 and rural wireless tele-density of 49.51. The number of broadband subscribers was 131.49 million as on November 30, 2015 including 115.11 million wireless broadband subscribers. The sector has exhibited exponential growth over the past few years supported by increasing network coverage, enabling regulations-initiatives and evolution of technology which has acted as catalyst for this growth. Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Preform of Silica (for use in manufacturing of telecommunication grade optical fiber cables) Specified telecommunication equipment (Soft switches and Voice Over Internet Protocol (VoIP) equipment Charger, battery and wired headsets/speakers for manufacture of mobile phone Before Nil Nil After 10% 10% Impact Excise Duty (%) - Charger, battery and wired headsets/ speakers for supply to mobile phone manufacturers - Nil 12.5% - Custom Duty on Modem 7.5% Nil PCBs for mobile phones and tablet Nil 2% + - Adapter, battery and wired headsets/ speakers of mobile phone Excise duty on Routers and broadband Modems Before After Impact Nil 2%[with-out Input Tax Credit] or 12.5% [with Input Tax Credit] - 12.5% Nil + 12.5%/ Nil 4% (Without Input Tax Credit) Or 12.5% (with Input Tax Credit) = 62 Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • The clarification that right to use spectrum and its • Service Tax to be levied on sale of spectrum trading subsequent sale is service (hence liable for levy of service • Spectrum fees can be amortized over the period for which tax) and not a sale of intangible good has paved the way right to use is obtained for levy of service tax on spectrum trading, and also • New Digital Literacy Mission Scheme for rural India allowing the government to charge service tax at the time of spectrum auction, making the acquisition of spectrum more costlier for the telecom service providers. However, on the other hand the levy of service tax will enable the telecom service providers to claim a credit for the service tax paid on buying of spectrum and would help in reducing output service tax liability. • Amendment in the provisions of the Income-tax Act in regards to the fees paid for obtaining right to use the spectrum is to be amortized over the period for which the right to use the spectrum has been granted. This will eventually ease out the tax outgo for the telecom service providers. • This new scheme is planned to cover additional 6 crore households within the next 3 years. This will lead to new opportunities for telecom equipment and infrastructure players Impact on Companies Company Bharti Airtel Reliance Communications Idea Cellular Impact Comments = = = No major Impact 63 Textiles Industry Snapshot: Indian Textiles industry plays a major role in the Indian economy which contributes 4 per cent to GDP, 14 per cent to industrial production and 13 per cent of total exports. The industry is one of the largest sources of employment generation providing employment to about 45 million people. The size of India’s Textile market in 2014 was USD 99 billion which is expected to increase to USD 226 billion by 2023. In 2014, Textiles contributed 60% to the export market while the balance was contributed by Apparels. Readymade Garments account for 41% of the total textiles and apparels exports, followed by cotton textiles (31%), manmade textiles (16%) and balance by handicrafts, silk, etc. India’s textiles products, including handlooms and handicrafts, are exported to more than a hundred countries. U.S.A. and the E.U., account for about two-thirds of India’s textiles exports. Textile exports grew at a cagr of 9.97% over the period FY06 to FY15. Furthermore it grew by 5.3% to USD 41.4 billion in FY15. Textile exports during H1FY16 (April 2015 to September 2015) touched USD 19.10 billion Duty Structure Customs Duty (%) Before After Impact Finished products Excise Duty (%) Before After Impact Cotton Fabric 6 6 Man-Made Fabric 12 12 Branded RMG 12 12 = = = Raw Cotton 0 0 Cotton Yarn 12.5 12.5 PTA 12 12 MEG 12 12 Polyester Chips 12 12 Polyester Staple Fibre 12.5 12.5 Viscose Staple Fibre 12.5 12.5 12 12 12.5 12.5 Finished products Cotton Fabric 10 10 Man-Made Fabric 10 10 Branded RMG 10 10 = = = Raw materials Raw materials Raw Cotton 0 0 Cotton Yarn 5 5 PTA 10 10 MEG 10 10 Polyester Chips 10 10 Polyester Staple Fibre 5 5 Viscose Staple Fibre 5 5 DMT 10 10 Man-Made Yarn 5 5 = = = = = = = = = DMT Man-Made Yarn = = = = = = = = = 64 Proposal and Impact Budget proposals Impact on the Industry Key schemes announced • Increase in Tariff value of Readymade Garments and made-ups • Increase in excise duty on branded Readymade Garments and made up of textiles of retail sale price of Rs.1000 or more • Reduction in duty on specified fabrics for manufacturing of textile garments for export • Likely to impact negatively for players operating in Readymade Garment and Made-up segments • Likely to impact positively for Readymade Garment exporters Impact on Companies Company Mandhana Industries Ltd Raymond Ltd Sutlej Textiles & Industries Ltd Impact = Comments Negative Negative No impact 65