ROLE OF HUMAN INTERVENTION
IN CLIMATE ADAPTATION
Global limits to biological
productivity and planetary
resource boundaries
Steven W Running
NTSG Univ. of Montana
CIRMOUNT 2012
“Limits to Growth” Scenario in
1972 for 2009
From G. Turner, Global Env Change 18:397-411. 2008
IS OUR CURRENT
BIOSPHERIC
CONSUMPTION OF NPP
Sustainable*?
*Meeting needs and values of today’s generation,
while preserving the planet’s life-support systems
for the needs and values of future generations.
How will Biospheric Production meet a population
increase of 40% and multiple new demands from
2011 - 2050?
Primary (Vegetation) Production is
normally increased by:
- Engaging more land
- Irrigation/fertilization
- Genetic improvements
Land area is NOT increasing
Irrigated Land Area is NOT Increasing
Lester Brown Plan 3.0, 2008
Water
– 5 to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds long-term
accessible supplies (low to medium certainty)
– 15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are
therefore unsustainable (low to medium certainty)
Unsustainable groundwater withdrawal
Depletion rate 4cm/yr
Groundwater withdrawals as % of recharge, 2002-2008.
Rodell et al Nature 2009
Lake Powell, AZ
Colorado River Basin
March 2003
•
J
u
n
2
0
0
2
Nitrogen Loading is already
damaging the biosphere
N Deposition rates ( 0 – 60kg/ha/yr )
Galloway et al Science 2008
Future Phosphorus Limitations ?
Cordell et al 2009.
Global Env Change 19: 292-305
Gulf of Mexico
Dead Zone
Food security: yield growth rate declining
Yield increase (%)
5
4
World
3
2
1
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
Year
FAO wheat yield data: Analysis
From Mark Howden, CSIRO (2009)
2030
2050
Per Capita Agricultural Production trends.
Global 14% Per capita reduction projected by 2030
Funk and Brown (2009)
If we thought wrecking the
global economy was a big deal,
that’s NOTHING compared to
wrecking the BIOSPHERE
Global Energy Consumption
Future Bioenergy Potential
(estimated by economists)
Bioenergy Potential:
~ 425 EJ yr-1
(Gritsevskyi & Schrattenholzer, 2003)
Capacity for Bioenergy Production
(estimated by ecologists)
Bioenergy potential:
~ 25-100 EJ yr-1
Smith and Running, in prep
HUMAN APPROPRIATION OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION
NASA Visible Earth, Imhoff et al 2004
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
Rockstrom et al. Nature 2009
Terrestrial NPP = Planetary Boundary??
Zhao et al., 2005, Remote Sensing of Environment
From Running, SW. Science 337 p1458-1459, 2012
HOW CAN WE GENERATE
POLICY RELEVANT INFORMATION?
Terrestrial Carbon Monitor
State
Change
LANDCOVER
SATELLITE DATA
NORTH AMERICA (40N~70N)
0.42
GREENNESS
GROWING SEASON
NDVI
0.4
TREND
0.38
0.36
0.34
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
YEAR
PRIMARY PRODUCTION
GROUND DATA
CO2 Flux Density (gC m-2 d-1)
Harvard Forest
8
NEE
Reco
4
GEE
0
-4
-8
-12
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Year
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
THE MOST DISTANT IMAGE OF EARTH EVER TAKEN, 1 BILLION KM
WE BETTER NOT SCREW THIS PLANET UP
Earth