Should I stay or should I go? Stagnant and advancing treelines in subarctic and alpine localities Steven D. Mamet & G. Peter Kershaw 1 2 Biology Department, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; 2Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Edmonton, AB, Canada 1 Email: steven.mamet@usask.ca 1 SUBARCTIC AND ALPINE TREELINE DYNAMICS 4. Seedling establishment, recruitment & climate (HBL) Attempts have been made to find a functional explanation for global-scale treeline position. Körner [1] suggested separating regional-scale modulative drivers from global-scale fundamental drivers (temperature), & identified five hypotheses of partly interrelated mechanisms: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Stress: repeated damage which impairs tree growth; Disturbance: mechanical damage or herbivory & fungal pathogens; Reproduction: limitation of fecundity, natality, & seedling establishment; Carbon balance: insufficient uptake or balance between uptake & loss; Growth limitation: growth reduced independently of supply of raw materials (i.e., photosimilates). Four treeline forms [2]: diffuse, abrupt, tree island, & krummholz. • • Mean JJAS temps. & precip. departures (w.r.t. 1971-00), growth indices with 5-year moving average & establishment residuals (5-year classes). Note the change in y-axis scale for larch residuals. The most recent age class was removed as it was likely incomplete and not indicative of seedling frequency during that period. Examples of treeline forms observed in this study. (a) Diffuse white spruce treeline near Churchill, MB (30 June 2009). (b) Subalpine fir tree island east of Macmillan Pass, NWT (28 July 2008). Treeline forms not arbitrary, but represent a clear signal inferring underlying process. This poster presents results of research within the forest-tundra ecotone (FTE) of the western Mackenzie Mountains (WMM), NWT (tree islands), & the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL), northern MB (diffuse). 5. Contrasting responses of subarctic & alpine treelines to warming Observations: • Treeline position advanced & stand density increased in WMM & HBL during the early 20th century. • Rapid change in recruitment ~1920–50 coincided with a period of above average temperatures. Highest correlations obtained using a 30-50 yr window of forward averaging—comparable to other studies [8,9]. Interpretations: • Abundant seedlings & low mortality suggest stand infilling & treeline advance in HBL will continue. WMM treeline stagnant, due to lack of sexual reproduction. • Increased HBL larch establishment & recruitment mirrored by dramatic growth increase in old & young trees—reiterated throughout the circumboreal treeline [10-16]. • Many larch are seedlings/saplings—will population dynamics will continue? Fundamental research questions: 1. What are the historical & current characteristics of trees at altitudinal & latitudinal treelines? 2. What factors contributed most to the current configuration of treeline at its altitudinal & latitudinal limits? MATERIALS & METHODS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Assessment of growth of treeline trees using dendroclimatology Monitoring the extent of mid-winter desiccation of coniferous foliage Determination of environmental controls on seedling establishment Contrasting seedling distribution in wetland & upland environments Treeline stand reconstruction using dendroecology Location of the (a) WMM and (b) HBL study areas (inset) and the sampling sites in each region. The contour interval in (a) is 150 m. Relationship between regional tree growth & climatic change during the 20th century around the WMM and HBL. Grey lines represent chronologies from trees established prior to 1920 & the black lines show chronologies derived from all sampled trees. RESULTS & DISCUSSION 1. Growth limitation & climate at treeline (WMM & HBL) Observations: • Growth correlated with summer & autumn temperatures—similar for trees at & distal to treeline. • Regionally: growth of all species responded positively to 20th century warming except for black spruce. • Growth since the 1990s was greater than any time during the last 250 years, particularly for larch. Interpretations: • Site factors & tree age can supersede regional climate forcing at temperature-sensitive subarctic treelines. • Future research should include seasonal monitoring of soil moisture at treeline to help decipher actual mechanisms that control growth at treeline. 2. Needle health & biomass dieback (HBL) Observations: • Minimum epidermal conductance (gmin) varied little with height & orientation. • Highest gmin in 2010 -->June (t-1) temperatures 2.9°C cooler than normal; lowest gmin in 2009-->June (t-1) 1.2°C warmer. • Viability & water content correlated in NW-facing treeline needles. Interpretations: • Some evidence of winter desiccation at HBL treelines, though debatable influence on treeline dynamics. • Little winterkill at diffuse treelines, though abundant winterkill at tree islands—scale of study could impact the magnitude of desiccation. • Further research should occur throughout the year; focus on tree & krummholz islands in the HBL [3]. Observations: • N=270: 205 (76%) larch & all but one were in the wetland. Low establishment in upland lichens. • Establishment correlated with JJAS temperatures—particularly larch. • Absence of upland seedlings suggests superseding influence—probably lichen seedbed. • Establishment of wetland black spruce related more to edaphic influences. Interpretations: • Temperature after establishment is important driver of population dynamics for larch & white spruce, but not black spruce. • Establishment can be limited by extensive lichen mats [5,6]. • If germination occurs within desiccation cracks or at mat margins, seedlings could be shielded from excessive sun & receive adequate moisture supply for growth & survival [6,7]. • Further study: moisture beneath lichens & nature/longevity of establishment within lichens. CONCLUSIONS Age distributions of living individuals sampled in the HBL (a–l), and WMM (m–o), divided into decadal age classes. The mean & SE of the site elevation within the WMM is shown. Note the change in scale of the y-axis among sites & species. Relationship between treeline dynamics & 20th century climatic change. Top: (a) Mean JJAS temps. & (b) mean MJJAS temps [17]. Bottom: Proportion of stems established in the noted decade up to the 1990s. Horizontal solid & dashed lines represent the mean proportion of each species established during the 20th century. Minimum epidermal conductance and June temperatures (Env. Can., 2012). Solid circle=mean. Outliers (± 2σ) are indicated by ‘x’. Different lowercase letters at the top of each box show significant differences between years. First-year conifer needles sampled 2008-10. This is the first multi-site, in-depth study of treeline pattern & process in the WMM & HBL. • Basic methods here have been used elsewhere, but by integrating them within a single study-->able to elucidate influences on pattern & process across FTE. – Rapid increase in growth, regeneration, densification, treeline shift, & vegetative facilitation. • In absence of increased disturbances or moisture stress, HBL treeline shall continue to advance, potentially with a change from spruce to larch-dominated communities. • Despite significantly increased growth rates during the last several decades, no seedlings were found within WMM since at least 2006, & reproduction exclusively asexual. • Disparity in response between the two locales highlights the need for consideration not just of climate, but also of treeline form, plant interactions & autecology in treeline dynamics. Tree rings: assess growth & population dynamics 3. Seedling establishment, environment, & plant interactions (WMM & HBL) Observations: • Many HBL spruce seeds produced—high germination (> 88%) of filled seeds. WMM: No viable seed or seedlings. • HBL: more larch (n = 187) than spruce seedlings (white: n = 172; black: n = 9). % dead seedlings: 0–20%. • Preferential establishment in moss & duff. Change from competition in forest to facilitation at treeline. Interpretations: • No reproduction limitation to HBL treeline advance as in WMM. Future advance likely contingent on seedbed facilitation. • Future work: seasonal population censuses [4] & annual assessment of mortality of younger life stages. Seedling preference (P2) for vegetation cover stratified by plant height. P2<0.3 suggests avoidance, P2=0.3 suggests random use, P2>0.3 suggests preference for that vegetation category. REFERENCES Seedling, sapling & plant surveys Lab work: needle transpiration & seed germination [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] Körner, 1998. 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This paper is a product under the International Polar Year (IPY) core project PPS Arctic as part of IPY 2007-08, sponsored by the International Council for Science and the World Meteorological Organization.