Actionable Science and Decision
Support for Managing Risks from
Changing Mountain Climates
Science 25 Nov 2011
Topics
I. What is
“actionable science”
for climate change
adaptation?
II. What climate
change adaptation is
going on?
III. What
“adaptation science”
is needed?
Water Management Has Long Used Climate Information
The past is never dead. It isn’t even past. -- William Faulkner
Reservoirs, levees, irrigation systems, groundwater development, water
allocation & transfer agreements are all designed to mitigate climate variability
– across many time/space scales.
“Stationarity is Dead” – Our fundamental assumption!
Stationarity
- Time invariant statistics
Science 2008
- Different parts of historic record equally likely
- Statistical definition of probability distribution
faithfully represents expectations for the future
Meaning for Water Management
- Risks are stationary/stable over time
Woodhouse, UA
- Observed flow records are the best estimate of future
variability
- Systems that are robust to past variability are robust to
future variability
A. Hamlet, CIG/UW
Decision Makers Must Confront Two Realities
Intractable Uncertainty, Irreducible Uncertainty
- trends, regimes
- paleoclimatological evidence of extended or regional
drought
- other human impacts on hydrologic systems, ecosystems
- global warming impacts – beyond past experience?
Non-stationarity: the past doesn’t represent the
future
- no ‘standard approach’ for handling non-stationarity
- models more informative than historical statistics alone
- temperature is a hydrologic variable
Hydrologic Cycle Changes in a Warmer World
Extra Energy: Enhanced Hydrologic Cycle
– Higher temps increase atmosphere moisture holding capacity
– Higher temps imply globally increased evaporation
– Precipitation must increase globally
(but not necessarily regionally)
– More intense precipitation - Floods
– More intense drying - Drought
• Mid-continental summertime drying
• Increased evaporation increases water demand
– More rain, less snow
– Earlier spring runoff
Can decision makers
act on this level of
information?
Hydrologic Cycle Changes in a Warmer World
Extra Energy: Enhanced Hydrologic Cycle
– Higher temps increase atmosphere moisture holding capacity
– Higher temps imply globally increased evaporation
– Precipitation must increase globally
(but not necessarily regionally)
– More intense precipitation - Floods
– More intense drying - Drought
• Mid-continental summertime drying
• Increased evaporation increases
water demand
– More rain, less snow
– Earlier spring runoff
IPCC 2007 Southwest North America Regional Findings
- Annual mean warming likely to exceed global mean
- Western NA warming likely between 2C and 7C at 2100
- In Southwest greatest warming in summer
- Precipitation likely to decrease in Southwest
- Snow season length and depth very likely to decrease
Recent Studies of Mid-century Climate Change Impacts on
Colorado River flows (Lee’s Ferry)
Recent Studies
Projected Annual Flow Reductions
Christensen et al., 2004
~18%
Christensen and Lettenmaier, 2007
~6%
Milly et al., 2005
10 to 25%
Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007
~45%
Seager et al., 2007
“an imminent transition to a more arid climate”
McCabe and Wolock, 2008
~17%
Barnett and Pierce, 2008
assumed 10-30%
Recent Studies of Mid-century Climate Change Impacts on
Colorado River flows (Lee’s Ferry)
Recent Studies
Projected Annual Flow Reductions
Christensen et al., 2004
~18%
Christensen and Lettenmaier, 2007
~6%
Milly et al., 2005
10 to 25%
Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007
~45%
Seager et al., 2007
“an imminent transition to a more arid climate”
McCabe and Wolock, 2008
~17%
Barnett and Pierce, 2008
assumed 10-30%
Response One: These are so different, we can’t trust any of them…
Response Two: We need to resolve these differences! Are the differences
due to climate uncertainty or different models and methods?
Response Three: None of these studies show increasing flows. Any
decrease is a source of concern.
Science 25 Nov 2011
Topics
I. What is
“actionable science”
for climate change
adaptation?
II. What climate
change adaptation
is going on?
III. What
“adaptation science”
is needed?
The future is already here. It’s just not very evenly
distributed. -- William Gibson
Federal Adaptation Action Plans
State Adaptation Action Plans
CA: 2009
CO: 2011
CA Integrated Regional Water Management Planning
Schwarz, 2011California Department of Water
Resources, Division of Statewide Integrated
Water Management
Multiple Networks, Multiple Decision Processes
Adaptation Activities
Diversifying portfolios
- Hydrologically independent water sources
- Need can emerge from vulnerability assessments alone
Photos: R. Meade, J. Moody: USGS
- But diversification can be costly, and have own risks
Adaptation Activities
Reducing Demand
- Long history of
conservation
- Feedback about usage
- Applying conserved
water toward
environmental water
needs
Accounting for Ecosystem
Services and Avoided
Costs
Time- and Location-shifting of supplies
Water Transaction Guidebooks for Water Professionals and
Stakeholders Colby et al, 2009-2011.
• Water Auction Design for Supply Reliability: Design,
Implementation, and Evaluation
• Water Banks: A Tool for Enhancing Water Supply Reliability
• Dry-Year Water Supply Reliability Contracts: A Tool for Water
Managers
• Understanding the Value of Water in Agriculture: Tools for
Negotiating Water Transfers – and - Entendiendo el Valor del
Agua en la Agricultura: Herramientas para Negociar
Intercambios de Agua
Increasing Supplies -- Augmentation
Centralized
- Dams, desalination
Decentralized
- Graywater, reclaimed water
- Rainwater harvesting
Tucson Ordinances
- New homes: hookups for washing
machines, sinks, showers can be sent
to separate drain lines for irrigation
systems
- New commercial development: 50% of
landscaping water needs = rainwater
harvesting
Financing
Networking – almost overwhelming!
Federal Interagency Task Force
Western Governor’s Association
Western Water Council
ICLEI – Local Governments for
Sustainability
Member organizations: AMS, AWRA,
AWWA, NACWA, AMWA, WUCA, PUMA
Regional utilities: Denver/Aurora, CA
IRWM
Cross-sector networks: Carpe Diem
West, Sky Island Alliance, Landscape
Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)
Carpe Diem West
Initiatives
Colorado River Futures - Nobody knows what the solutions
are going to be, but we do know that we’re going to have to do
things differently in the future, and CDW can provide that kind
of help. – Eric Kuhn, Colorado River Water Conservation District
Healthy Headwaters - To tackle an integrated problem like
climate change, we have to perforate out individual
stovepipes… It really helps to have a group of voices from the
field who can tell us, ‘here’s what would be really helpful. –
David Cleaves, Climate advisor to Chief, US Forest Service
Science 25 Nov 2011
Topics
I. What is “actionable
science” for climate
change adaptation?
II. What climate
change adaptation is
going on?
III. What
“adaptation
science” is needed?
1. Supporting adaptation: effectively,
efficiently, across scales
What is decision support ?
Climate change decision support refers to
organized efforts to produce,
disseminate, and facilitate the use of
data and information in order to
improve the quality and efficacy of
climate-related decisions (NRC 2009,
Informing Decisions in a Changing
Climate).
Data
<<
Information
<<
1. Supporting adaptation: effectively &
efficiently, across scales
Data
<<
Information
<<
Images: NWS, NWS, lopix.com
What is decision support ?
Climate change decision support refers to
organized efforts to produce,
disseminate, and facilitate the use of
data and information in order to
improve the quality and efficacy of
climate-related decisions (NRC 2009,
Informing Decisions in a Changing
Climate).
Knowledge << Wisdom
2. Speed Up Learning: Tools, Connect-the-Dots, Community
Iterative Risk Management Framework
1
TRACK RESULTS
8
6
SCOPE PROBLEM
2
Monitor
Establish
decision-making
criteria
3
Implement
decision
7
Identify problem
and objectives
NO
NO
5
Make decision
YES
MAKE DECISION
Criteria met?
Problem
defined
correctly?
Appraise
Appraise
Appraise
options
options
options
Assess
risk
4
Identify
Identify
Identify
options
options
options
ANALYZE PROBLEM
Source: America’s Climate Choices.
National Research Council, 2010.
3. Use of Scenarios and Scenario Thinking
Characterizing Uncertainty
Embracing Uncertainty
Reducing Uncertainty
4. Ecology of Scenarios
Local/Regional
Visioning Scenarios
Global Scenarios
- Emissions
- Socioeconomic
Regional Scenarios
Global Scenarios
- Climate
- Environmental
- Community Desires
- Mitigation
- Adaptation Planning
Driving Forces
- Climate
- Environmental
- Socioeconomic
Local/Regional Adaptation
Scenarios
Regional Scenarios
Embrace
Uncertainty
System Sensitivity & Impacts
- Climate
- Environmental
- Socioeconomic
Evaluating Adaptation Options
- Regions, Sectors
- Quantitative Planning Methods
Reduce
Uncertainty
Local/Regional Challenge
Scenarios
Characterize
Uncertainty
Strategic Adaptation Challenges
- Regions, Sectors
- Strategic Narratives
- Adaptation Options and Screening
5. Parsing Uncertainty: Practice with SI outlooks
6. Assess Effectiveness of Options
1. Resistance: defend against change
(Homeland Security)
2. Resilience: ‘bounce back’ after
disturbance (Health Care)
3. Response: facilitate change
(Beginners Mind), e.g., regional
approaches, interconnections, diversity
4. Realignment: accept different
systems, focus on function (Auto
Mechanics)
5. Reduce: mitigation of GHG (Good
Samaritan)
6. Triage: let go (Pragmatic)
Adapted from Millar et al, 2007. Ecological
Applications. 2008, Forest Guild
presentation
7. Assess Vulnerability
Beyond sensitivity of supplies!
- Assessment of infrastructure, policies, procedures
Photos: R. Meade, J. Moody: USGS
- Linkages: water supply infrastructure, land management,
fire management, energy, communities and livelihoods
8. Assess Build-out: Services provided, Avoided costs
NACWA, AMWA